Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
I think HYUFD is still loyal. What happened to you though? You were PB's No1 Johnson Fanboy until a few days ago before the wind changed. Apparently you still think he is one of the *best* PMs, but now paradoxically think he should be ousted? Why do you want to oust someone that you think is good?
I am always loyal. I was out campaigning and voting for William Hague in 2001 when PT voted for Blair.
I also even voted for May's Tories in the 2019 European elections when PT voted for Farage's Brexit party
Denmark’s @SSI_dk just released a new risk assessment on #omicron. It estimates that #omicron will become the dominant variant in Copenhagen this week with more than 10,000 cases per day expected - an all-time pandemic high.
Seems to confirm the original charts regarding omnicron's seriously high R0 rate.
"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.
And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.
While Omicron represents over 20% of cases in England, we’ve already seen it rise to over 44% in London and we expect it to become the dominant Covid 19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours."
You can see he didn't say 200k omicron. You can also see why I interpreted it as such I hope (he uses the word omicron both before and after the key stat).
200k cases per day would be a huge increase from the last ONS release, it would imply that ~2m people currently have COVID. While it's definitely possible, I'm not certain that it's plausible, given that we haven't seen the same kind of take off in the daily stats or in other leading indicators. We'd be picking up just 25% of new cases in the testing system, normally it hovers around 40% and I don't see why that number would have suddenly dropped.
One possible reason for it dropping would be if a growing fraction of people are unwilling to self-isolate, and so are refusing to volunteer for testing, but I don't have much sense of that being widespread, despite one poster stating that's now their attitude.
If that is the number then this will be all over in a couple of weeks as everyone will either have had it or will be already immune.
Before the current panic - i.e. about 8 days ago - I booked my booster. First available slots were around New Year - ended up with the 5th of Jan. Is it worth trying to bring it forward? I'm double jabbed of course, not at risk, and I had covid back in October - presumably that confers a degree of protection. Happy to try to bring it forward but there must be other people who could make better use of the slot.
Yeah you should. My mate just messaged into WhatsApp that he's got a positive lateral flow result so has a PCR booked. Annoyingly it's two days until his booster appointment.
Now that the booster programme is reaching the age groups where Covid incidence is currently high (parents of school-age children), this may act as something of a limiting factor on boosters, particularly if most people with work/caring commitments can't queue for hours and have to make appointments.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab." https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Very wise. But how's that going to go down with the swivel-eyed Tory brigade?
Better than another lockdown would
I'd gently suggest it won't be perceived as either swivel-eyed Tories or lockdown-sceptics in general as an either-or.
The polling is clear. Most voters, including most Tory voters, back Vaxports. Only RefUK voters are majority opposed to them.
However the weekend polling was also clear most voters, let alone most Tories, oppose another lockdown and shutting pubs and restaurants again
"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.
And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.
While Omicron represents over 20% of cases in England, we’ve already seen it rise to over 44% in London and we expect it to become the dominant Covid 19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours."
You can see he didn't say 200k omicron. You can also see why I interpreted it as such I hope (he uses the word omicron both before and after the key stat).
200k cases per day would be a huge increase from the last ONS release, it would imply that ~2m people currently have COVID. While it's definitely possible, I'm not certain that it's plausible, given that we haven't seen the same kind of take off in the daily stats or in other leading indicators. We'd be picking up just 25% of new cases in the testing system, normally it hovers around 40% and I don't see why that number would have suddenly dropped.
I know a lot in the last week. And quite a few on here too. There have also been the return of the big football outbreaks. They are all just anecdotal, but suggest something may possibly be afoot.
Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.
Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.
Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
Pretty much anyone (well, anyone other than Rees-Mogg) would be better as PM, but anyone better as PM is going to have to make some decisions, which means telling people some things they don't want to hear. Boris did well in 2019 because of his lying, not despite it. Whilst it's gradually getting through to people that they've been conned, the urge to continue to want to be conned is surprisingly strong (see those harrowing tales of people cheated out of their pensions by fraudsters - it's often very hard to convince them not to continue believing the lies). Therefore, it's not necessarily the case that a replacement leader would transform the Conservative Party's prospects, starting from here; the new leader might please one part of Johnson's 2019 support base, but do worse against another part.
It's this last point which is crucial to the calculations Tory MPs will be making.
That Liz Truss would make a better PM than Johnson says a lot more about him than her! I'd put Priti Patel next to Rees Mogg.
Priti Patel or Jacob Rees-Mogg are potential candidates for a future Tory leader of the opposition.
However hard to see past Sunak for next PM if Boris goes, with Truss and Javid and maybe Zahawi dark horses.
A 5% poll lead for Labour only not too bad all things considering however and Boris will be hoping he gets a 'booster bounce' by January
You think he can survive even if he loses North Shropshire?
Of course he can survive.
I'd go further. He is far more likely to survive than not.
I've built up quite a big betting position now - at an average 1.72 - on him still to be PM at next year's Tory Party Conf.
During his Commons statement, Sajid Javid says that - as long as MPs support it - people will need to show a negative lateral flow test to get into nightclubs and large venues - unless they are double vaccinated.
How are the LFTs to be policed? What does "show a negative lateral flow test" mean in practice?
Based on what I am seeing and feeling around the bits of the economy I interact with, it does feel like there are a lot of infections out there which weren't before.
200k a day already is a truly alarming figure. We know just how sodding infectious is, and we know that it does a good job of running around the back of the vaccines (hence the terrible urgency to get a 3rd dose into everyone).
In reality if we're already at 200k then the booster programme has failed before it started. I am not saying that in criticism, this thing has exploded out of nowhere.
So Plan B like a Rishi budget update last spring feels like it will be replaced very quickly. I have predicted we limp through Christmas and lockdown before we get to New Year. I now wonder if we will make it that far. Cancelling Christmas again with be the apocalypseofuck for the government. They honestly may not have a choice.
Bugger
No worries. We can just all wear a mask in public. No problem. Surely that’s the cure all, even if we’re higher risk
Have we done the 7 point Lab lead with Survation today?
Since the 8th Boris Conservatives have been on 32 in 3/4 polls. I have Mori as the outlier as some of their fieldwork began on the third, the No rules were broken BSing was not cutting through back then.
Libdems going backwards though as Conservatives in free fall ☹️
As I was typing it here comes another one. Make that 32 4/5.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab." https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Very wise. But how's that going to go down with the swivel-eyed Tory brigade?
Better than another lockdown would
I'd gently suggest it won't be perceived as either swivel-eyed Tories or lockdown-sceptics in general as an either-or.
The polling is clear. Most voters, including most Tory voters, back Vaxports. Only RefUK voters are majority opposed to them.
However the weekend polling was also clear most voters, let alone most Tories, oppose another lockdown and shutting pubs and restaurants again
Before the current panic - i.e. about 8 days ago - I booked my booster. First available slots were around New Year - ended up with the 5th of Jan. Is it worth trying to bring it forward? I'm double jabbed of course, not at risk, and I had covid back in October - presumably that confers a degree of protection. Happy to try to bring it forward but there must be other people who could make better use of the slot.
Get a shift on mate. I tested positive on the morning of my booster. A week or so earlier might have been crucial.
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
I think HYUFD is still loyal. What happened to you though? You were PB's No1 Johnson Fanboy until a few days ago before the wind changed. Apparently you still think he is one of the *best* PMs, but now paradoxically think he should be ousted? Why do you want to oust someone that you think is good?
I am always loyal. I was out campaigning and voting for William Hague in 2001 when PT voted for Blair
That is kind of admirable in some ways but foolish in others. Johnson has done so much to damage the Tory brand. He doesn't deserve your loyalty. He would be happy to feed you to the wolves (or even his wife) if it furthered his ambition. Personally I would rather be fed to the wolves than his wife.
During his Commons statement, Sajid Javid says that - as long as MPs support it - people will need to show a negative lateral flow test to get into nightclubs and large venues - unless they are double vaccinated.
How are the LFTs to be policed? What does "show a negative lateral flow test" mean in practice?
I'm not sure what I object to more: vaccine passports or encouraging people to generate an outrageous amount of plastic waste.
"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.
And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.
While Omicron represents over 20% of cases in England, we’ve already seen it rise to over 44% in London and we expect it to become the dominant Covid 19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours."
You can see he didn't say 200k omicron. You can also see why I interpreted it as such I hope (he uses the word omicron both before and after the key stat).
200k cases per day would be a huge increase from the last ONS release, it would imply that ~2m people currently have COVID. While it's definitely possible, I'm not certain that it's plausible, given that we haven't seen the same kind of take off in the daily stats or in other leading indicators. We'd be picking up just 25% of new cases in the testing system, normally it hovers around 40% and I don't see why that number would have suddenly dropped.
I know a lot in the last week. And quite a few on here too. There have also been the return of the big football outbreaks. They are all just anecdotal, but suggest something may possibly be afoot.
It also suggests that SA must have had huge numbers 2-3 weeks ago
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole PA: US citizen Anne Sacoolas, 44, will face Westminster Magistrates’ Court on January 18 charged with causing 19-year-old Harry Dunn’s death by dangerous driving, the Crown Prosecution Service said.
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
I think HYUFD is still loyal. What happened to you though? You were PB's No1 Johnson Fanboy until a few days ago before the wind changed. Apparently you still think he is one of the *best* PMs, but now paradoxically think he should be ousted? Why do you want to oust someone that you think is good?
Start of September was more than a couple of days ago!
Yes I think that Boris is one of the best PMs of my lifetime, and I think he should be ousted, as I think he's lost his grip and lost his touch.
Thatcher was for me the very best PM postwar by a longshot. To the point where it isn't even close she was the best, nobody else comes near. But I also think the Party was right to oust her in 1990. By 1990 she'd lost her touch, lost her sense of reality and so on.
I think Covid has overwhelmed Boris now so that even though he handled Covid and Europe well going forward he's a frightened, timid, pale version of himself. Too quick to raise taxes, too quick to impose restrictions. He isn't the Boris of a couple of years ago, Covid has destroyed him and he needs to go.
"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.
And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.
While Omicron represents over 20% of cases in England, we’ve already seen it rise to over 44% in London and we expect it to become the dominant Covid 19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours."
You can see he didn't say 200k omicron. You can also see why I interpreted it as such I hope (he uses the word omicron both before and after the key stat).
200k cases per day would be a huge increase from the last ONS release, it would imply that ~2m people currently have COVID. While it's definitely possible, I'm not certain that it's plausible, given that we haven't seen the same kind of take off in the daily stats or in other leading indicators. We'd be picking up just 25% of new cases in the testing system, normally it hovers around 40% and I don't see why that number would have suddenly dropped.
One possible reason for it dropping would be if a growing fraction of people are unwilling to self-isolate, and so are refusing to volunteer for testing, but I don't have much sense of that being widespread, despite one poster stating that's now their attitude.
If that is the number then this will be all over in a couple of weeks as everyone will either have had it or will be already immune.
Yes. It would suggest that it's possibly too late for any intervention to reduce the size of the peak, and we'd need to concentrate on any available measures to cope with it (in the event that it results in anything that needs coping with).
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
I think HYUFD is still loyal. What happened to you though? You were PB's No1 Johnson Fanboy until a few days ago before the wind changed. Apparently you still think he is one of the *best* PMs, but now paradoxically think he should be ousted? Why do you want to oust someone that you think is good?
I am always loyal. I was out campaigning and voting for William Hague in 2001 when PT voted for Blair.
I also even voted for May's Tories in the 2019 European elections when PT voted for Farage's Brexit party
And you'll be campaigning for The Truss next time around, no doubt.
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
I think HYUFD is still loyal. What happened to you though? You were PB's No1 Johnson Fanboy until a few days ago before the wind changed. Apparently you still think he is one of the *best* PMs, but now paradoxically think he should be ousted? Why do you want to oust someone that you think is good?
I am always loyal. I was out campaigning and voting for William Hague in 2001 when PT voted for Blair.
I also even voted for May's Tories in the 2019 European elections when PT voted for Farage's Brexit party
And you'll be campaigning for The Truss next time around, no doubt.
If The Truss became PM and led a campaign to abolish the monarchy then our HYUFD would call monarchists who left the Tories "traitors".
"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.
And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.
While Omicron represents over 20% of cases in England, we’ve already seen it rise to over 44% in London and we expect it to become the dominant Covid 19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours."
You can see he didn't say 200k omicron. You can also see why I interpreted it as such I hope (he uses the word omicron both before and after the key stat).
200k cases per day would be a huge increase from the last ONS release, it would imply that ~2m people currently have COVID. While it's definitely possible, I'm not certain that it's plausible, given that we haven't seen the same kind of take off in the daily stats or in other leading indicators. We'd be picking up just 25% of new cases in the testing system, normally it hovers around 40% and I don't see why that number would have suddenly dropped.
One possible reason for it dropping would be if a growing fraction of people are unwilling to self-isolate, and so are refusing to volunteer for testing, but I don't have much sense of that being widespread, despite one poster stating that's now their attitude.
If that is the number then this will be all over in a couple of weeks as everyone will either have had it or will be already immune.
Yes. It would suggest that it's possibly too late for any intervention to reduce the size of the peak, and we'd need to concentrate on any available measures to cope with it (in the event that it results in anything that needs coping with).
When do we think this will be apparent. We aren't seeing anything now, according to @Malmesbury's numbers.
So far (early days) we have one death (details of/with/etc tbc) and 4,713 cases.
So per Javid Omicron is 20% of cases and growing terrifyingly, but the overall rate of case growth is falling despite the current lateral flow mania. So at least we're doing a knock out job on delta!
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole PA: US citizen Anne Sacoolas, 44, will face Westminster Magistrates’ Court on January 18 charged with causing 19-year-old Harry Dunn’s death by dangerous driving, the Crown Prosecution Service said.
"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.
And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.
While Omicron represents over 20% of cases in England, we’ve already seen it rise to over 44% in London and we expect it to become the dominant Covid 19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours."
You can see he didn't say 200k omicron. You can also see why I interpreted it as such I hope (he uses the word omicron both before and after the key stat).
200k cases per day would be a huge increase from the last ONS release, it would imply that ~2m people currently have COVID. While it's definitely possible, I'm not certain that it's plausible, given that we haven't seen the same kind of take off in the daily stats or in other leading indicators. We'd be picking up just 25% of new cases in the testing system, normally it hovers around 40% and I don't see why that number would have suddenly dropped.
One possible reason for it dropping would be if a growing fraction of people are unwilling to self-isolate, and so are refusing to volunteer for testing, but I don't have much sense of that being widespread, despite one poster stating that's now their attitude.
If that is the number then this will be all over in a couple of weeks as everyone will either have had it or will be already immune.
Yes. It would suggest that it's possibly too late for any intervention to reduce the size of the peak, and we'd need to concentrate on any available measures to cope with it (in the event that it results in anything that needs coping with).
Still only 880 people with Covid on oxygen (not always beacuse of Covid) in SA out of a population of 60 million. There are some SA scientists now debating that SA is at the peak of the Omicron wave.
"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.
And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.
While Omicron represents over 20% of cases in England, we’ve already seen it rise to over 44% in London and we expect it to become the dominant Covid 19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours."
You can see he didn't say 200k omicron. You can also see why I interpreted it as such I hope (he uses the word omicron both before and after the key stat).
200k cases per day would be a huge increase from the last ONS release, it would imply that ~2m people currently have COVID. While it's definitely possible, I'm not certain that it's plausible, given that we haven't seen the same kind of take off in the daily stats or in other leading indicators. We'd be picking up just 25% of new cases in the testing system, normally it hovers around 40% and I don't see why that number would have suddenly dropped.
One possible reason for it dropping would be if a growing fraction of people are unwilling to self-isolate, and so are refusing to volunteer for testing, but I don't have much sense of that being widespread, despite one poster stating that's now their attitude.
If that is the number then this will be all over in a couple of weeks as everyone will either have had it or will be already immune.
Yes. It would suggest that it's possibly too late for any intervention to reduce the size of the peak, and we'd need to concentrate on any available measures to cope with it (in the event that it results in anything that needs coping with).
When do we think this will be apparent. We aren't seeing anything now, according to @Malmesbury's numbers.
So far (early days) we have one death (details of/with/etc tbc) and 4,713 cases.
The higher the R, the lower the apparent death rate, at least in the growth phase.
200k (40k OMICRON) sounds like a big number to me though. What are they basing this on? ONS?
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
I think HYUFD is still loyal. What happened to you though? You were PB's No1 Johnson Fanboy until a few days ago before the wind changed. Apparently you still think he is one of the *best* PMs, but now paradoxically think he should be ousted? Why do you want to oust someone that you think is good?
I am always loyal. I was out campaigning and voting for William Hague in 2001 when PT voted for Blair.
I also even voted for May's Tories in the 2019 European elections when PT voted for Farage's Brexit party
And you'll be campaigning for The Truss next time around, no doubt.
If The Truss became PM and led a campaign to abolish the monarchy then our HYUFD would call monarchists who left the Tories "traitors".
If Truss became PM and campaigned to abolish the monarchy I would vote RefUK or even LD (Davey is a constitutional monarchist) as it would cease to be the Tory party.
However even if she became PM I can't believe she would be that stupid
I see Rochdale and Francis are back to their favourite pastime of predicting a cancellation of Christmas. We just need AveIt Londonpubman to complete the set.
Does anyone think there is a realistic possibility that the government will lockdown over Christmas? This seems to be a PB only thing.
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole PA: US citizen Anne Sacoolas, 44, will face Westminster Magistrates’ Court on January 18 charged with causing 19-year-old Harry Dunn’s death by dangerous driving, the Crown Prosecution Service said.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
I think HYUFD is still loyal. What happened to you though? You were PB's No1 Johnson Fanboy until a few days ago before the wind changed. Apparently you still think he is one of the *best* PMs, but now paradoxically think he should be ousted? Why do you want to oust someone that you think is good?
Start of September was more than a couple of days ago!
Yes I think that Boris is one of the best PMs of my lifetime, and I think he should be ousted, as I think he's lost his grip and lost his touch.
Thatcher was for me the very best PM postwar by a longshot. To the point where it isn't even close she was the best, nobody else comes near. But I also think the Party was right to oust her in 1990. By 1990 she'd lost her touch, lost her sense of reality and so on.
I think Covid has overwhelmed Boris now so that even though he handled Covid and Europe well going forward he's a frightened, timid, pale version of himself. Too quick to raise taxes, too quick to impose restrictions. He isn't the Boris of a couple of years ago, Covid has destroyed him and he needs to go.
A spirited response, though like Borsi Johnson, short on substance Phil. Long after you did your attention seeking tantrum article you were defending Johnson again.
You once said you wished you didn't use your real name on here, so perhaps you should reinvent yourself like SeanT and maybe come back as Phil The Weathervane?
Boris Johnson always has been shit, he is unfit for high office. You are right to be embarrassed about defending him, but do not try and kid us into thinking this was some kind of carefully considered journey of yours. You have flipped loyalty.
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
I think HYUFD is still loyal. What happened to you though? You were PB's No1 Johnson Fanboy until a few days ago before the wind changed. Apparently you still think he is one of the *best* PMs, but now paradoxically think he should be ousted? Why do you want to oust someone that you think is good?
I am always loyal. I was out campaigning and voting for William Hague in 2001 when PT voted for Blair.
I also even voted for May's Tories in the 2019 European elections when PT voted for Farage's Brexit party
And you'll be campaigning for The Truss next time around, no doubt.
If The Truss became PM and led a campaign to abolish the monarchy then our HYUFD would call monarchists who left the Tories "traitors".
If Truss became PM and campaigned to abolish the monarchy I would vote RefUK or even LD (Davey is a constitutional monarchist) as it would cease to be the Tory party.
Hover even if she became PM I can't believe she would be that stupid
I thought a week or so ago you were saying you would never support Truss but now you have added an extra (very risk-free) caveat to your decalration.
It seems what Javid was saying was the current estimated number of daily infections are around 200,000 of all variants. 20% of which are Omicron.
Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.
If it does hit a million a day new cases, the vaccines better hold...otherwise we will be having bodies piling up in the streets.
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
I think HYUFD is still loyal. What happened to you though? You were PB's No1 Johnson Fanboy until a few days ago before the wind changed. Apparently you still think he is one of the *best* PMs, but now paradoxically think he should be ousted? Why do you want to oust someone that you think is good?
I am always loyal. I was out campaigning and voting for William Hague in 2001 when PT voted for Blair.
I also even voted for May's Tories in the 2019 European elections when PT voted for Farage's Brexit party
And you'll be campaigning for The Truss next time around, no doubt.
If The Truss became PM and led a campaign to abolish the monarchy then our HYUFD would call monarchists who left the Tories "traitors".
If Truss became PM and campaigned to abolish the monarchy I would vote RefUK or even LD (Davey is a constitutional monarchist) as it would cease to be the Tory party.
Hover even if she became PM I can't believe she would be that stupid
I thought a week or so ago you were saying you would never support Truss but now you have added an extra (very risk-free) caveat to your decalration.
Have I got that right?
I prefer Sunak if Boris went but provided she kept quiet on her past republicanism I could tolerate her
Either Javid flat out lied or the Guardian are misreporting him.
200k Omicron cases a day, and Omicron is 20% of total cases. So we're getting 1m cases a day, when the ONS infection survey says 1m cases in total (i.e. over 5-10 days).
I see Rochdale and Francis are back to their favourite pastime of predicting a cancellation of Christmas. We just need AveIt Londonpubman to complete the set.
Does anyone think there is a realistic possibility that the government will lockdown over Christmas? This seems to be a PB only thing.
I NEVER PREDICTED / NOR AM I PREDICTING THE CANCELLATION OF CHRISTMAS / NEW YEAR IN ENGLAND....
I said I believe we will get restrictions (at least in England) in January.
If Scotland or Wales go earlier, I don't know, they are much more cautious / fast to pull the handbrake. I could see the much loved in these parts Drakeford going back to banning the sale of oven gloves before Christmas.
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
I think HYUFD is still loyal. What happened to you though? You were PB's No1 Johnson Fanboy until a few days ago before the wind changed. Apparently you still think he is one of the *best* PMs, but now paradoxically think he should be ousted? Why do you want to oust someone that you think is good?
Start of September was more than a couple of days ago!
Yes I think that Boris is one of the best PMs of my lifetime, and I think he should be ousted, as I think he's lost his grip and lost his touch.
Thatcher was for me the very best PM postwar by a longshot. To the point where it isn't even close she was the best, nobody else comes near. But I also think the Party was right to oust her in 1990. By 1990 she'd lost her touch, lost her sense of reality and so on.
I think Covid has overwhelmed Boris now so that even though he handled Covid and Europe well going forward he's a frightened, timid, pale version of himself. Too quick to raise taxes, too quick to impose restrictions. He isn't the Boris of a couple of years ago, Covid has destroyed him and he needs to go.
A spirited response, though like Borsi Johnson, short on substance Phil. Long after you did your attention seeking tantrum article you were defending Johnson again.
You once said you wished you didn't use your real name on here, so perhaps you should reinvent yourself like SeanT and maybe come back as Phil The Weathervane?
Boris Johnson always has been shit, he is unfit for high office. You are right to be embarrassed about defending him, but do not try and kid us into thinking this was some kind of carefully considered journey of yours. You have flipped loyalty.
I don't recall ever defending Boris again. I do recall saying he did the right things on Covid and Europe and that's right. The fact he's doing the wrong things going forwards, doesn't magically make what he did in the past wrong when I supported it at the time.
His handling of Europe was infinitely better than May's and nearly perfect getting us out of the hole May and Robbins dug. His handling of Covid getting the vaccines etc was one of the best in the world - and its still one of the best.
But going forwards he's rising taxes, he's putting in Plan B. I have no faith in him going forwards. Its time to thank him for his service and send him off into retirement and get someone else to move us forwards.
I see Rochdale and Francis are back to their favourite pastime of predicting a cancellation of Christmas. We just need AveIt Londonpubman to complete the set.
Does anyone think there is a realistic possibility that the government will lockdown over Christmas? This seems to be a PB only thing.
Either Javid flat out lied or the Guardian are misreporting him.
200k Omicron cases a day, and Omicron is 20% of total cases. So we're getting 1m cases a day, when the ONS infection survey says 1m cases in total (i.e. over 5-10 days).
Obviously wrong, shameful scaremongering.
Its 200k total cases a day.
"Health Secretary Sajid Javid begins his statement by telling MPs that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000. He says Omicron will become the dominant variant in London in the next 48 hours and represents 20% of cases in England."
Either Javid flat out lied or the Guardian are misreporting him.
200k Omicron cases a day, and Omicron is 20% of total cases. So we're getting 1m cases a day, when the ONS infection survey says 1m cases in total (i.e. over 5-10 days).
I see Rochdale and Francis are back to their favourite pastime of predicting a cancellation of Christmas. We just need AveIt Londonpubman to complete the set.
Does anyone think there is a realistic possibility that the government will lockdown over Christmas? This seems to be a PB only thing.
It seems what Javid was saying was the current estimated number of daily infections are around 200,000 of all variants. 20% of which are Omicron.
Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.
If it does hit a million a day new cases, the vaccines better hold...otherwise we will be having bodies piling up in the streets.
Mate I don't think posting such analysis particularly healthy for you (the rest of us apply a @FrancisUrquhart discount to everything you post).
Perhaps, as I have advocated several times of late, take a break from PB to let yourself get some perspective. Go out for a long walk (not now; it's dark), add to that amazing 1,000km cycle tally.
But you are doing yourself no favours by catastrophising on PB.
I see Rochdale and Francis are back to their favourite pastime of predicting a cancellation of Christmas. We just need AveIt Londonpubman to complete the set.
Does anyone think there is a realistic possibility that the government will lockdown over Christmas? This seems to be a PB only thing.
They will wait until 3rd Jan.
I did project 3 Jan on this thread several days ago...
I see Rochdale and Francis are back to their favourite pastime of predicting a cancellation of Christmas. We just need AveIt Londonpubman to complete the set.
Does anyone think there is a realistic possibility that the government will lockdown over Christmas? This seems to be a PB only thing.
They will wait until 3rd Jan.
It will be past peak by then
They loved locking us down for months too long last year, I don't see why being pointless and late is any bar this time.
"1. Steve Baker 2. Ben Bradley 3. Brendan Clarke-Smith 4. Graham Brady 5. Philip Davies 6. Richard Drax 7. Simon Jupp 8. Stephen McPartland 9. John Redwood 10. Greg Smith 11. Dehenna Davison 12. Marcus Fysh 13. Gary Sambrook 14. Pauline Latham 15. William Wragg 16. Geoffrey Clifton-Brown 17. Iain Duncan Smith 18. Christopher Chope 19. Craig Tracey 20. Robert Syms 21. Anthony Mangnall 22. Greg Clark 23. Esther McVey 24. Liam Fox 25. David Davis 26. Mark Jenkinson 27. Alicia Kearns 28. Mark Harper 29. Darren Henry 30. Steve Brine 31. Craig Mackinlay 32. Simon Fell 33. Andrew Bowie 34. David Warburton 35. Siobhan Baillie 36. David Jones 37. Tom Randall 38. Ben Spencer 39. Andrew Rosindell 40. Charles Walker 41. Douglas Ross 42, Karl McCartney 43. Anne Marie Morris 44. Johnny Mercer 45. Tom Tugendhat 46. Richard Fuller 47. Giles Watling 48. Desmond Swayne 49. Andrew Bridgen 50. Andrew Lewer 51. Christian Wakeford 52. Adam Afriyie 53. Julian Sturdy 54. Peter Bone 55. Chris Grayling 56. Chris Green 57. Tim Loughton 58. Tracey Crouch 59. Miriam Cates 60. Jackie Doyle-Price 61. Lee Anderson 62. Jonathan Djanogly 63. Mark Francois 64. Jill Mortimer 65. Tobias Ellwood 66. Scott Benton 67. Henry Smith 68. Matt Vickers 69. John Hayes 70. Mike Penning 71. Mark Pawsey 72. Nus Ghani 73. Chris Loder 74. Shaun Bailey 75. Robbie Moore 76. Philip Hollobone 77. Tom Hunt"
Fraser tweeted out the last once with a note than the majority is 79 - if he thinks that bears comparison to the 77 here it suggests he doesn't understand how majorities work.
He’s not fully connected it, but isn’t number of rebels > majority the point where the government cannot win *without opposition support*
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
And if it's confirmed the Moon is made of cheese it will be enough to feed the world's population for millennia.
I see Rochdale and Francis are back to their favourite pastime of predicting a cancellation of Christmas. We just need AveIt Londonpubman to complete the set.
Does anyone think there is a realistic possibility that the government will lockdown over Christmas? This seems to be a PB only thing.
They will wait until 3rd Jan.
I did project 3 Jan on this thread several days ago...
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
And if it's confirmed the Moon is made of cheese it will be enough to feed the world's population for millennia.
Chris this is your moment. Despite the projections being humungous I am still willing to have a bet with you on the 800k/day omicron cases you forecast.
I don't think we'll get there, you do. What are the terms of the bet. This is free money for you from the fools out there (ie me).
"1. Steve Baker 2. Ben Bradley 3. Brendan Clarke-Smith 4. Graham Brady 5. Philip Davies 6. Richard Drax 7. Simon Jupp 8. Stephen McPartland 9. John Redwood 10. Greg Smith 11. Dehenna Davison 12. Marcus Fysh 13. Gary Sambrook 14. Pauline Latham 15. William Wragg 16. Geoffrey Clifton-Brown 17. Iain Duncan Smith 18. Christopher Chope 19. Craig Tracey 20. Robert Syms 21. Anthony Mangnall 22. Greg Clark 23. Esther McVey 24. Liam Fox 25. David Davis 26. Mark Jenkinson 27. Alicia Kearns 28. Mark Harper 29. Darren Henry 30. Steve Brine 31. Craig Mackinlay 32. Simon Fell 33. Andrew Bowie 34. David Warburton 35. Siobhan Baillie 36. David Jones 37. Tom Randall 38. Ben Spencer 39. Andrew Rosindell 40. Charles Walker 41. Douglas Ross 42, Karl McCartney 43. Anne Marie Morris 44. Johnny Mercer 45. Tom Tugendhat 46. Richard Fuller 47. Giles Watling 48. Desmond Swayne 49. Andrew Bridgen 50. Andrew Lewer 51. Christian Wakeford 52. Adam Afriyie 53. Julian Sturdy 54. Peter Bone 55. Chris Grayling 56. Chris Green 57. Tim Loughton 58. Tracey Crouch 59. Miriam Cates 60. Jackie Doyle-Price 61. Lee Anderson 62. Jonathan Djanogly 63. Mark Francois 64. Jill Mortimer 65. Tobias Ellwood 66. Scott Benton 67. Henry Smith 68. Matt Vickers 69. John Hayes 70. Mike Penning 71. Mark Pawsey 72. Nus Ghani 73. Chris Loder 74. Shaun Bailey 75. Robbie Moore 76. Philip Hollobone 77. Tom Hunt"
Fraser tweeted out the last once with a note than the majority is 79 - if he thinks that bears comparison to the 77 here it suggests he doesn't understand how majorities work.
He’s not fully connected it, but isn’t number of rebels > majority the point where the government cannot win *without opposition support*
So slightly different to win/lose
With a majority of 79, if 40 vote against they're relying on some opposition support or abstention to pass measures.
323 is the magic number ex the absent scum, and he only has 361 MPs.
It seems what Javid was saying was the current estimated number of daily infections are around 200,000 of all variants. 20% of which are Omicron.
Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.
If it does hit a million a day new cases, the vaccines better hold...otherwise we will be having bodies piling up in the streets.
Does the 200k for new daily cases include an estimated upwards adjustment for all the people who catch it and either don't know or don't tell?
"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.
And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.
While Omicron represents over 20% of cases in England, we’ve already seen it rise to over 44% in London and we expect it to become the dominant Covid 19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours."
You can see he didn't say 200k omicron. You can also see why I interpreted it as such I hope (he uses the word omicron both before and after the key stat).
200k cases per day would be a huge increase from the last ONS release, it would imply that ~2m people currently have COVID. While it's definitely possible, I'm not certain that it's plausible, given that we haven't seen the same kind of take off in the daily stats or in other leading indicators. We'd be picking up just 25% of new cases in the testing system, normally it hovers around 40% and I don't see why that number would have suddenly dropped.
One possible reason for it dropping would be if a growing fraction of people are unwilling to self-isolate, and so are refusing to volunteer for testing, but I don't have much sense of that being widespread, despite one poster stating that's now their attitude.
If that is the number then this will be all over in a couple of weeks as everyone will either have had it or will be already immune.
Yes. It would suggest that it's possibly too late for any intervention to reduce the size of the peak, and we'd need to concentrate on any available measures to cope with it (in the event that it results in anything that needs coping with).
When do we think this will be apparent. We aren't seeing anything now, according to @Malmesbury's numbers.
So far (early days) we have one death (details of/with/etc tbc) and 4,713 cases.
I'd imagine that we would know first from the London hospital admissions data if we have a serious problem, and in something like a week or so for certainty.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
I am assuming you are an anti-vaxxer? Are you suggesting that vaccinating people may kill more than it saves? In which case you are a fucking idiot. You are clearly not a scientist as no scientist would equate viruses with antibiotic resistance. I would like to see anyone who deliberately puts others at risk by refusing vaccination put to the test: If you really believe the shit that you suck up, stay at home. Put yourself in the lockdown that by your pig-ignorant selfish behaviour you risk the rest of society enduring. Diddums, you will not be able to go out. Sit at home and wank yourself off on an anti-vax site for incurably stupid.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
Everyone is hoping that that Omicron is just like the common cold. Hopefully it is.
But your vaccine stuff is - as always - patent nonsense.
1. For a start, you are only talking about Pfizer trials. And we're therefore talking about exceptionally small numbers. Like literally a couple of people. How about you talk about the other vaccines? Oh wait, they don't show the data you want, so you ignore them.
2. But we shouldn't be talking about a trial a year ago. We actually know real world data on outcomes now. So we know hospitalization rates for the vaccinated vs the unvaccinated by cohort. Is everybody in the medical profession lying about who's in hospital?
"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.
And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.
While Omicron represents over 20% of cases in England, we’ve already seen it rise to over 44% in London and we expect it to become the dominant Covid 19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours."
You can see he didn't say 200k omicron. You can also see why I interpreted it as such I hope (he uses the word omicron both before and after the key stat).
200k cases per day would be a huge increase from the last ONS release, it would imply that ~2m people currently have COVID. While it's definitely possible, I'm not certain that it's plausible, given that we haven't seen the same kind of take off in the daily stats or in other leading indicators. We'd be picking up just 25% of new cases in the testing system, normally it hovers around 40% and I don't see why that number would have suddenly dropped.
One possible reason for it dropping would be if a growing fraction of people are unwilling to self-isolate, and so are refusing to volunteer for testing, but I don't have much sense of that being widespread, despite one poster stating that's now their attitude.
If that is the number then this will be all over in a couple of weeks as everyone will either have had it or will be already immune.
Yes. It would suggest that it's possibly too late for any intervention to reduce the size of the peak, and we'd need to concentrate on any available measures to cope with it (in the event that it results in anything that needs coping with).
When do we think this will be apparent. We aren't seeing anything now, according to @Malmesbury's numbers.
So far (early days) we have one death (details of/with/etc tbc) and 4,713 cases.
I'd imagine that we would know first from the London hospital admissions data if we have a serious problem, and in something like a week or so for certainty.
It seems what Javid was saying was the current estimated number of daily infections are around 200,000 of all variants. 20% of which are Omicron.
Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.
If it does hit a million a day new cases, the vaccines better hold...otherwise we will be having bodies piling up in the streets.
Does the 200k for new daily cases include an estimated upwards adjustment for all the people who catch it and either don't know or don't tell?
Its an estimate from the UK Health Security Agency, so I would guess it is all infections. Pinch of salt and all that.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
If you are going post anti-vax garbage, please make sure it resizes to the at least the quality of Wakefield.
You can leave reaching the scientific genius of Prof. Peston until the week after.
It seems what Javid was saying was the current estimated number of daily infections are around 200,000 of all variants. 20% of which are Omicron.
Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.
If it does hit a million a day new cases, the vaccines better hold...otherwise we will be having bodies piling up in the streets.
I see you are your usual calm and collected self Francis – PB's very own Lance Corporal Jones.
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
I think HYUFD is still loyal. What happened to you though? You were PB's No1 Johnson Fanboy until a few days ago before the wind changed. Apparently you still think he is one of the *best* PMs, but now paradoxically think he should be ousted? Why do you want to oust someone that you think is good?
I am always loyal. I was out campaigning and voting for William Hague in 2001 when PT voted for Blair.
I also even voted for May's Tories in the 2019 European elections when PT voted for Farage's Brexit party
And you'll be campaigning for The Truss next time around, no doubt.
If The Truss became PM and led a campaign to abolish the monarchy then our HYUFD would call monarchists who left the Tories "traitors".
If Truss became PM and campaigned to abolish the monarchy I would vote RefUK or even LD (Davey is a constitutional monarchist) as it would cease to be the Tory party.
Hover even if she became PM I can't believe she would be that stupid
I thought a week or so ago you were saying you would never support Truss but now you have added an extra (very risk-free) caveat to your decalration.
Have I got that right?
I prefer Sunak if Boris went but provided she kept quiet on her past republicanism I could tolerate her
You'd prefer Hunt to either of those, though, am I right?
Either Javid flat out lied or the Guardian are misreporting him.
200k Omicron cases a day, and Omicron is 20% of total cases. So we're getting 1m cases a day, when the ONS infection survey says 1m cases in total (i.e. over 5-10 days).
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
I am assuming you are an anti-vaxxer? Are you suggesting that vaccinating people may kill more than it saves? In which case you are a fucking idiot. You are clearly not a scientist as no scientist would equate viruses with antibiotic resistance. I would like to see anyone who deliberately puts others at risk by refusing vaccination put to the test: If you really believe the shit that you suck up, stay at home. Put yourself in the lockdown that by your pig-ignorant selfish behaviour you risk the rest of society enduring. Diddums, you will not be able to go out. Sit at home and wank yourself off on an anti-vax site for incurably stupid.
Spot on;
New variants come out of the unvaccinated. It is lingering infections that result in mutations. So, it is literally the complete opposite of antibiotic resistance.
It seems what Javid was saying was the current estimated number of daily infections are around 200,000 of all variants. 20% of which are Omicron.
Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.
If it does hit a million a day new cases, the vaccines better hold...otherwise we will be having bodies piling up in the streets.
I see you are your usual calm and collected self Francis – PB's very own Lance Corporal Jones.
I am totally calm, I think am confident they will.
It seems what Javid was saying was the current estimated number of daily infections are around 200,000 of all variants. 20% of which are Omicron.
Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.
If it does hit a million a day new cases, the vaccines better hold...otherwise we will be having bodies piling up in the streets.
Does the 200k for new daily cases include an estimated upwards adjustment for all the people who catch it and either don't know or don't tell?
I am going to tell you that last week I had a horrible sore throat and felt wonky. Pretty much the same as I felt when I had coronavirus. I thought oh sh&t how can this be to have it again. I LFTed and negative and it passed after a couple of days.
Not impossible it was omicron (I am as it stands 2x jabbed and 1x infected).
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
Talk of "strengthening their immune system" is an infallible dildo indicator. Ginseng and echinacea I'm guessing.
It seems what Javid was saying was the current estimated number of daily infections are around 200,000 of all variants. 20% of which are Omicron.
Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.
If it does hit a million a day new cases, the vaccines better hold...otherwise we will be having bodies piling up in the streets.
Does the 200k for new daily cases include an estimated upwards adjustment for all the people who catch it and either don't know or don't tell?
Its an estimate from the UK Health Security Agency, so I would guess it is all infections. Pinch of salt and all that.
ZOE is currently estimating 84,000 symptomatic cases, so that would imply at least as many asymptomatic. Could be a lot of people not getting tested with atypical, cold-like symptoms.
I see Rochdale and Francis are back to their favourite pastime of predicting a cancellation of Christmas. We just need AveIt Londonpubman to complete the set.
Does anyone think there is a realistic possibility that the government will lockdown over Christmas? This seems to be a PB only thing.
I had an interesting chat with the wife of a colleague I bumped into while walking the dog. She is definitely 'one of the public', not a scientist or the normal people I talk too (normal for me being Uni academics, post grad students etc). Her main point is that the public worry about Christmas being 'cancelled', not because of anything specific about omicron, but simply because of what happened last year.
I find that a totally reasonable fear, not because I think it will happen, but I understand why you would. I mean whoever thought in their lifetime that the government would legally confine you to your home, not once but three times in a year?
It seems what Javid was saying was the current estimated number of daily infections are around 200,000 of all variants. 20% of which are Omicron.
Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.
If it does hit a million a day new cases, the vaccines better hold...otherwise we will be having bodies piling up in the streets.
Does the 200k for new daily cases include an estimated upwards adjustment for all the people who catch it and either don't know or don't tell?
Its an estimate from the UK Health Security Agency, so I would guess it is all infections. Pinch of salt and all that.
ZOE is currently estimating 84,000 symptomatic cases, so that would imply at least as many asymptomatic. Could be a lot of people not getting tested with atypical, cold-like symptoms.
Or the HSA are being pessimistic. Remember their model says a million a day in a couple of weeks. Be a bit disappointing for their prediction skills if it was only 100k....
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
I think HYUFD is still loyal. What happened to you though? You were PB's No1 Johnson Fanboy until a few days ago before the wind changed. Apparently you still think he is one of the *best* PMs, but now paradoxically think he should be ousted? Why do you want to oust someone that you think is good?
I am always loyal. I was out campaigning and voting for William Hague in 2001 when PT voted for Blair.
I also even voted for May's Tories in the 2019 European elections when PT voted for Farage's Brexit party
And you'll be campaigning for The Truss next time around, no doubt.
If The Truss became PM and led a campaign to abolish the monarchy then our HYUFD would call monarchists who left the Tories "traitors".
If Truss became PM and campaigned to abolish the monarchy I would vote RefUK or even LD (Davey is a constitutional monarchist) as it would cease to be the Tory party.
Hover even if she became PM I can't believe she would be that stupid
I thought a week or so ago you were saying you would never support Truss but now you have added an extra (very risk-free) caveat to your decalration.
Have I got that right?
I prefer Sunak if Boris went but provided she kept quiet on her past republicanism I could tolerate her
You'd prefer Hunt to either of those, though, am I right?
I would. The most competent high profile Tory at the moment, which is why the swivel-eyed twats that have taken over the Tory Party will block him.
Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.
Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.
I wonder if the maths has changed a bit since the days of more regular mid-term leads though, as it seems to have in the US too. In a highly partisan era we seem to see smaller swings, fewer floating voters and a larger base (and in the UK more churn between parties within the left and right bubbles rather than between) that a shift of a few points from Tory to Labour is more significant than it might have been a decade ago.
I'd say this is true - not that it means Labour is well on course. It just means there's more uncertainty. At the past two elections there were big moves towards Labour at the GE from its mid-term polling as disgruntled voters got back on board - just from terrible starting positions. A very big one in 2017, and a smaller one in 2019. Now, there will be various reasons for that - people not liking Corbyn but coming back into the fold when faced with a straight choice, Brexit and the collapse of the Lib Dems post-2015 forcing those for whom the number one issue was wanting to remain/stymie a hard Brexit to vote that way, just as it had an opposite effect on some Labour leavers. After almost a decade anti-Tory voters being more willing to vote against a party in protest to kick them out even if didn't like what Labour was selling. A great unknown at the next GE will be the extent that's still in effect - has Starmer just shored up a lot of Corbynsceptics who ended u ticking the Lab box anyway? Will wanting a closer relationship with the EU or wanting to kick those who severed it hold the same emotional pull as 'stopping/softening Brexit'? Is there a well of more liberal Tory 2019 voters who were held in place by Corbyn, that Labour and the Lib Dems can dip into? How much of the slightly increased Green vote from miffed ex-Corbynistas or Lib Dem vote can Lab squeeze and add to making some inroads among swing voters? You'd say the effect is likely to be reduced, but not dissipate entirely.
But it gives you reason to think the old 'Poll high in mid-term, leak support' model for oppositions isn't as as once it definite as it once was, as there are just more forces acting on the electorate than when it was a relatively straightforward case of who do well defined swing seats want to govern, with governments getting unpopular in mid-term after frontloading the unpleasant stuff and oppositions falling back when people annoyed with the government were forced to pick between them and a concrete alternative.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
And if it's confirmed the Moon is made of cheese it will be enough to feed the world's population for millennia.
"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.
And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.
While Omicron represents over 20% of cases in England, we’ve already seen it rise to over 44% in London and we expect it to become the dominant Covid 19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours."
You can see he didn't say 200k omicron. You can also see why I interpreted it as such I hope (he uses the word omicron both before and after the key stat).
200k cases per day would be a huge increase from the last ONS release, it would imply that ~2m people currently have COVID. While it's definitely possible, I'm not certain that it's plausible, given that we haven't seen the same kind of take off in the daily stats or in other leading indicators. We'd be picking up just 25% of new cases in the testing system, normally it hovers around 40% and I don't see why that number would have suddenly dropped.
One possible reason for it dropping would be if a growing fraction of people are unwilling to self-isolate, and so are refusing to volunteer for testing, but I don't have much sense of that being widespread, despite one poster stating that's now their attitude.
If that is the number then this will be all over in a couple of weeks as everyone will either have had it or will be already immune.
Yes. It would suggest that it's possibly too late for any intervention to reduce the size of the peak, and we'd need to concentrate on any available measures to cope with it (in the event that it results in anything that needs coping with).
Still only 880 people with Covid on oxygen (not always beacuse of Covid) in SA out of a population of 60 million. There are some SA scientists now debating that SA is at the peak of the Omicron wave.
Yes. If Omicron doesn't result in much additional pressure on hospitals, and no further restrictions are imposed, then Johnson will have played a blinder on the politics of Omicron, as he will be able to claim that his quick response with the booster programme saved Christmas (and granny) from the deadly threat of Omicron.
Either Javid flat out lied or the Guardian are misreporting him.
200k Omicron cases a day, and Omicron is 20% of total cases. So we're getting 1m cases a day, when the ONS infection survey says 1m cases in total (i.e. over 5-10 days).
I see Rochdale and Francis are back to their favourite pastime of predicting a cancellation of Christmas. We just need AveIt Londonpubman to complete the set.
Does anyone think there is a realistic possibility that the government will lockdown over Christmas? This seems to be a PB only thing.
They will wait until 3rd Jan.
I did project 3 Jan on this thread several days ago...
...along with 3 Dec, 3 Nov, 3 Oct, 3 Sep and a lockdown every month since before the dawn of time.
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
854,217.
Definitely higher.
1,248,510
OK two entries makes it a competition, I will record entries until noon tomorrow and then declare on January 1st who was closest and award an appropriate prize.
NB. If @RochdalePioneers enters and is closest as at December 30th, I reserve the right to override the competition rules and award the prize to the second nearest guess.
Thinking about this anomaly. The only explanation is the 4 to 6 days of negative LFT tests, despite symptoms, that all 4 people in my cluster experienced. Certainly Test and Trace were really, really interested in this. Haven't seen this mentioned anywhere in the media. But they might be extrapolating this forwards.
Just turned down the whole menu here other than the vegetable soup because it’s all rank - how’s your evening going?
I was expecting something big soup-esque but it isn’t that
I made a chili with chunks of beef and jalapeno peppers, green peppers, baby tomatoes, garlic, ginger and various spices. After 6 hours cooking it came out very nicely
Comments
I also even voted for May's Tories in the 2019 European elections when PT voted for Farage's Brexit party
@SSI_dk
just released a new risk assessment on #omicron.
It estimates that #omicron will become the dominant variant in Copenhagen this week with more than 10,000 cases per day expected - an all-time pandemic high.
Seems to confirm the original charts regarding omnicron's seriously high R0 rate.
However the weekend polling was also clear most voters, let alone most Tories, oppose another lockdown and shutting pubs and restaurants again
They are all just anecdotal, but suggest something may possibly be afoot.
I've built up quite a big betting position now - at an average 1.72 - on him still to be PM at next year's Tory Party Conf.
Current price 1.85 which I think is a steal.
During his Commons statement, Sajid Javid says that - as long as MPs support it - people will need to show a negative lateral flow test to get into nightclubs and large venues - unless they are double vaccinated.
How are the LFTs to be policed? What does "show a negative lateral flow test" mean in practice?
@MrHarryCole
PA: US citizen Anne Sacoolas, 44, will face Westminster Magistrates’ Court on January 18 charged with causing 19-year-old Harry Dunn’s death by dangerous driving, the Crown Prosecution Service said.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1470439977238544390
Start of September was more than a couple of days ago!
Yes I think that Boris is one of the best PMs of my lifetime, and I think he should be ousted, as I think he's lost his grip and lost his touch.
Thatcher was for me the very best PM postwar by a longshot. To the point where it isn't even close she was the best, nobody else comes near. But I also think the Party was right to oust her in 1990. By 1990 she'd lost her touch, lost her sense of reality and so on.
I think Covid has overwhelmed Boris now so that even though he handled Covid and Europe well going forward he's a frightened, timid, pale version of himself. Too quick to raise taxes, too quick to impose restrictions. He isn't the Boris of a couple of years ago, Covid has destroyed him and he needs to go.
So far (early days) we have one death (details of/with/etc tbc) and 4,713 cases.
https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
200k (40k OMICRON) sounds like a big number to me though. What are they basing this on? ONS?
Conclusion: a bout of Covid does not provide immunity from the common cold.
However even if she became PM I can't believe she would be that stupid
AveItLondonpubman to complete the set.Does anyone think there is a realistic possibility that the government will lockdown over Christmas? This seems to be a PB only thing.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
https://t.co/Nnt9YVi3vO
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
You once said you wished you didn't use your real name on here, so perhaps you should reinvent yourself like SeanT and maybe come back as Phil The Weathervane?
Boris Johnson always has been shit, he is unfit for high office. You are right to be embarrassed about defending him, but do not try and kid us into thinking this was some kind of carefully considered journey of yours. You have flipped loyalty.
Have I got that right?
Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.
If it does hit a million a day new cases, the vaccines better hold...otherwise we will be having bodies piling up in the streets.
200k Omicron cases a day, and Omicron is 20% of total cases. So we're getting 1m cases a day, when the ONS infection survey says 1m cases in total (i.e. over 5-10 days).
Obviously wrong, shameful scaremongering.
I said I believe we will get restrictions (at least in England) in January.
If Scotland or Wales go earlier, I don't know, they are much more cautious / fast to pull the handbrake. I could see the much loved in these parts Drakeford going back to banning the sale of oven gloves before Christmas.
That's a lot of simultaneous equations to work out what the fuck is going on.
His handling of Europe was infinitely better than May's and nearly perfect getting us out of the hole May and Robbins dug. His handling of Covid getting the vaccines etc was one of the best in the world - and its still one of the best.
But going forwards he's rising taxes, he's putting in Plan B. I have no faith in him going forwards. Its time to thank him for his service and send him off into retirement and get someone else to move us forwards.
"Health Secretary Sajid Javid begins his statement by telling MPs that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000. He says Omicron will become the dominant variant in London in the next 48 hours and represents 20% of cases in England."
Perhaps, as I have advocated several times of late, take a break from PB to let yourself get some perspective. Go out for a long walk (not now; it's dark), add to that amazing 1,000km cycle tally.
But you are doing yourself no favours by catastrophising on PB.
So slightly different to win/lose
I don't think we'll get there, you do. What are the terms of the bet. This is free money for you from the fools out there (ie me).
323 is the magic number ex the absent scum, and he only has 361 MPs.
But your vaccine stuff is - as always - patent nonsense.
1. For a start, you are only talking about Pfizer trials. And we're therefore talking about exceptionally small numbers. Like literally a couple of people. How about you talk about the other vaccines? Oh wait, they don't show the data you want, so you ignore them.
2. But we shouldn't be talking about a trial a year ago. We actually know real world data on outcomes now. So we know hospitalization rates for the vaccinated vs the unvaccinated by cohort. Is everybody in the medical profession lying about who's in hospital?
You can leave reaching the scientific genius of Prof. Peston until the week after.
2) Numbers
What could possibly go wrong?
New variants come out of the unvaccinated. It is lingering infections that result in mutations. So, it is literally the complete opposite of antibiotic resistance.
Not impossible it was omicron (I am as it stands 2x jabbed and 1x infected).
I am surprised that Starmer's lead is as low as 13%. There are root vegetables that would make a better PM than Boris.
I find that a totally reasonable fear, not because I think it will happen, but I understand why you would. I mean whoever thought in their lifetime that the government would legally confine you to your home, not once but three times in a year?
I just don't buy a million new cases a day.
But it gives you reason to think the old 'Poll high in mid-term, leak support' model for oppositions isn't as as once it definite as it once was, as there are just more forces acting on the electorate than when it was a relatively straightforward case of who do well defined swing seats want to govern, with governments getting unpopular in mid-term after frontloading the unpleasant stuff and oppositions falling back when people annoyed with the government were forced to pick between them and a concrete alternative.
Certainly Test and Trace were really, really interested in this.
Haven't seen this mentioned anywhere in the media. But they might be extrapolating this forwards.
See also @TOPPING above.
I was expecting something big soup-esque but it isn’t that