Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.
Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.
Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
Pretty much anyone (well, anyone other than Rees-Mogg) would be better as PM, but anyone better as PM is going to have to make some decisions, which means telling people some things they don't want to hear. Boris did well in 2019 because of his lying, not despite it. Whilst it's gradually getting through to people that they've been conned, the urge to continue to want to be conned is surprisingly strong (see those harrowing tales of people cheated out of their pensions by fraudsters - it's often very hard to convince them not to continue believing the lies). Therefore, it's not necessarily the case that a replacement leader would transform the Conservative Party's prospects, starting from here; the new leader might please one part of Johnson's 2019 support base, but do worse against another part.
It's this last point which is crucial to the calculations Tory MPs will be making.
That Liz Truss would make a better PM than Johnson says a lot more about him than her! I'd put Priti Patel next to Rees Mogg.
Priti Patel or Jacob Rees-Mogg are potential candidates for a future Tory leader of the opposition.
However hard to see past Sunak for next PM if Boris goes, with Truss and Javid and maybe Zahawi dark horses.
A 5% poll lead for Labour only not too bad all things considering however and Boris will be hoping he gets a 'booster bounce' by January
You think he can survive even if he loses North Shropshire?
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
I don't know why that 15 mins wait was still in place anyway. Didn't it all come from a couple of isolated incidents were they suffered anaphylactic shock, as they were already vulnerable to it.
By the time I got my jabs, they asked that when you checked in.
Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good
Philip leads by example
Indeed I've never lied here. If you want to slander me, then please say a lie I've said. Having a different opinion to you isn't a lie.
It's not slander; I've detailed your lies in the previous conversation. You are a liar who lies, and you got upset when I detailed them. Nothing more to say.
You lied. You claimed I said "masks don't work" when I actually said "mask mandates don't work".
Then you dug in and quoted me saying "mask mandates don't work" and claimed that as proof of me saying "masks don't work". Its not, its proof of me saying "mask mandates don't work".
If you want to change or omit the words someone says, then put words they didn't say in quotation marks, then you are the one who is dishonest. If you have to change what someone said to mock or insult them, then you've already lost the argument - and your credibility.
you're still lying
You are. I said mask mandates, you claimed I said masks then literally quoted me saying mask mandates.
You have no integrity it seems. You could have admitted you had made a mistake, not understanding the distinction between the two, but you didn't.
lies lies lies. liar philip is lying still
Unparliamentary language! Suspended from the House for 30 days or resign and trigger a by election, which is it to be?
Anyone MP suspended from the house for more than 10 days is subject to a recall petition.
And it's possible to see Boris being subject to a 10 day suspension given the current charges against him.
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
I booked a jab at the weekend for last week of month, only to discover people booking today getting them this week, so will pootle off to pharmacy drop in tomorrow I think.
Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.
Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.
Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
Pretty much anyone (well, anyone other than Rees-Mogg) would be better as PM, but anyone better as PM is going to have to make some decisions, which means telling people some things they don't want to hear. Boris did well in 2019 because of his lying, not despite it. Whilst it's gradually getting through to people that they've been conned, the urge to continue to want to be conned is surprisingly strong (see those harrowing tales of people cheated out of their pensions by fraudsters - it's often very hard to convince them not to continue believing the lies). Therefore, it's not necessarily the case that a replacement leader would transform the Conservative Party's prospects, starting from here; the new leader might please one part of Johnson's 2019 support base, but do worse against another part.
It's this last point which is crucial to the calculations Tory MPs will be making.
That Liz Truss would make a better PM than Johnson says a lot more about him than her! I'd put Priti Patel next to Rees Mogg.
Priti Patel or Jacob Rees-Mogg are potential candidates for a future Tory leader of the opposition.
However hard to see past Sunak for next PM if Boris goes, with Truss and Javid and maybe Zahawi dark horses.
A 5% poll lead for Labour only not too bad all things considering however and Boris will be hoping he gets a 'booster bounce' by January
You think he can survive even if he loses North Shropshire?
No guarantee he will lose North Shropshire. However I think he would get until the end of January now to see if he does get a 'booster bounce'
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
I'm not sure you want the 15 minute waiting time with Omicron about. Could turn the vax centres into superspreaders...
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
I'm not sure you want the 15 minute waiting time with Omicron about. Could turn the vax centres into superspreaders...
15 minutes sat with others is the last thing you want now. You want people in and out the door as quickly as possible and as spread apart as possible,
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
I'm not sure you want the 15 minute waiting time with Omicron about. Could turn the vax centres into superspreaders...
Especially given some of the stories / stats about infectiousness e.g. the hotel transmission where the two people opened the door at the same time to get food and that was their only interaction. And the claim from Scotland, 100 people in a room, 1 have Omicron, 50 will get it.
Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.
Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.
Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
Pretty much anyone (well, anyone other than Rees-Mogg) would be better as PM, but anyone better as PM is going to have to make some decisions, which means telling people some things they don't want to hear. Boris did well in 2019 because of his lying, not despite it. Whilst it's gradually getting through to people that they've been conned, the urge to continue to want to be conned is surprisingly strong (see those harrowing tales of people cheated out of their pensions by fraudsters - it's often very hard to convince them not to continue believing the lies). Therefore, it's not necessarily the case that a replacement leader would transform the Conservative Party's prospects, starting from here; the new leader might please one part of Johnson's 2019 support base, but do worse against another part.
It's this last point which is crucial to the calculations Tory MPs will be making.
That Liz Truss would make a better PM than Johnson says a lot more about him than her! I'd put Priti Patel next to Rees Mogg.
Priti Patel or Jacob Rees-Mogg are potential candidates for a future Tory leader of the opposition.
However hard to see past Sunak for next PM if Boris goes, with Truss and Javid and maybe Zahawi dark horses.
A 5% poll lead for Labour only not too bad all things considering however and Boris will be hoping he gets a 'booster bounce' by January
You think he can survive even if he loses North Shropshire?
No guarantee he will lose North Shropshire. However I think he would get until the end of January now to see if he does get a 'booster bounce'
Good grief, how many chances is the guy going to get? Failing to act is just delaying the inevitable.
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
I'm not sure you want the 15 minute waiting time with Omicron about. Could turn the vax centres into superspreaders...
Yes, that's one of the reasons to get rid of it, plus potentially tripling the number of doses that can be administered. It's a no brainer. I think they may ask to keep it for any AZ/AZ primary patients because mRNA side effects will be unknown, but for those of us who got Pfizer or Moderna the first time out it doesn't make sense to make us hang around for 15 mins taking up space and potentially getting infected and slowing everything down given there was no reaction the first two times out.
Rees-Mogg is beloved by the Tory base and rightwingers though much as Corbyn was beloved by the Labour base and leftwingers.
If Labour win the next general election I would not rule out Rees-Mogg as a future Tory leader and Leader of the Opposition
Tory MPs would definitely make sure he got nowhere near the last two. Remember he was forced to go into hiding during the last election, and that was with the clown in charge.
I thought we might get through to at least January.....
So what IS in Plan C? Boris Johnson refuses THREE TIMES to rule out tighter restrictions before Christmas amid fears he could impose social distancing, rule of six, masks and Covid passports in pubs - as Scots minister warns further curbs are 'inevitable
Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.
Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.
Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
Pretty much anyone (well, anyone other than Rees-Mogg) would be better as PM, but anyone better as PM is going to have to make some decisions, which means telling people some things they don't want to hear. Boris did well in 2019 because of his lying, not despite it. Whilst it's gradually getting through to people that they've been conned, the urge to continue to want to be conned is surprisingly strong (see those harrowing tales of people cheated out of their pensions by fraudsters - it's often very hard to convince them not to continue believing the lies). Therefore, it's not necessarily the case that a replacement leader would transform the Conservative Party's prospects, starting from here; the new leader might please one part of Johnson's 2019 support base, but do worse against another part.
It's this last point which is crucial to the calculations Tory MPs will be making.
That Liz Truss would make a better PM than Johnson says a lot more about him than her! I'd put Priti Patel next to Rees Mogg.
Priti Patel or Jacob Rees-Mogg are potential candidates for a future Tory leader of the opposition.
However hard to see past Sunak for next PM if Boris goes, with Truss and Javid and maybe Zahawi dark horses.
A 5% poll lead for Labour only not too bad all things considering however and Boris will be hoping he gets a 'booster bounce' by January
You think he can survive even if he loses North Shropshire?
No guarantee he will lose North Shropshire. However I think he would get until the end of January now to see if he does get a 'booster bounce'
A vaccine bounce? So lighting strikes twice.
Johnson has more lives than a rampant ginger tom but even I am struggling to see how he survives this without declaring war on China, or similar.
Sajid Javid today said he will be 'personally running' the nation's accelerated Covid booster jab programme as he sidelined Vaccines Minister Maggie Throup. Mr Javid insisted that Ms Throup is 'doing a really important job'
Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.
Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.
Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
Pretty much anyone (well, anyone other than Rees-Mogg) would be better as PM, but anyone better as PM is going to have to make some decisions, which means telling people some things they don't want to hear. Boris did well in 2019 because of his lying, not despite it. Whilst it's gradually getting through to people that they've been conned, the urge to continue to want to be conned is surprisingly strong (see those harrowing tales of people cheated out of their pensions by fraudsters - it's often very hard to convince them not to continue believing the lies). Therefore, it's not necessarily the case that a replacement leader would transform the Conservative Party's prospects, starting from here; the new leader might please one part of Johnson's 2019 support base, but do worse against another part.
It's this last point which is crucial to the calculations Tory MPs will be making.
That Liz Truss would make a better PM than Johnson says a lot more about him than her! I'd put Priti Patel next to Rees Mogg.
Priti Patel or Jacob Rees-Mogg are potential candidates for a future Tory leader of the opposition.
However hard to see past Sunak for next PM if Boris goes, with Truss and Javid and maybe Zahawi dark horses.
A 5% poll lead for Labour only not too bad all things considering however and Boris will be hoping he gets a 'booster bounce' by January
You think he can survive even if he loses North Shropshire?
No guarantee he will lose North Shropshire. However I think he would get until the end of January now to see if he does get a 'booster bounce'
You're thinking about this wrongly. From a purely partisan perspective, it's too late to think from the perspective of what's good for Boris - he's used up his nine lives. The good of the Conservative Party can best be fulfilled by getting rid of Boris and allowing his successor to benefit from any Booster bounce - or to blame Boris if it's a shambles.
Rees-Mogg is beloved by the Tory base and rightwingers though much as Corbyn was beloved by the Labour base and leftwingers.
If Labour win the next general election I would not rule out Rees-Mogg as a future Tory leader and Leader of the Opposition
I would. The polling intentions would be more than enough to sink him without trace. Conservative MPs and party members like winners not assured losers.
Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.
Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.
Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
Pretty much anyone (well, anyone other than Rees-Mogg) would be better as PM, but anyone better as PM is going to have to make some decisions, which means telling people some things they don't want to hear. Boris did well in 2019 because of his lying, not despite it. Whilst it's gradually getting through to people that they've been conned, the urge to continue to want to be conned is surprisingly strong (see those harrowing tales of people cheated out of their pensions by fraudsters - it's often very hard to convince them not to continue believing the lies). Therefore, it's not necessarily the case that a replacement leader would transform the Conservative Party's prospects, starting from here; the new leader might please one part of Johnson's 2019 support base, but do worse against another part.
It's this last point which is crucial to the calculations Tory MPs will be making.
That Liz Truss would make a better PM than Johnson says a lot more about him than her! I'd put Priti Patel next to Rees Mogg.
Priti Patel or Jacob Rees-Mogg are potential candidates for a future Tory leader of the opposition.
However hard to see past Sunak for next PM if Boris goes, with Truss and Javid and maybe Zahawi dark horses.
A 5% poll lead for Labour only not too bad all things considering however and Boris will be hoping he gets a 'booster bounce' by January
Throughout 2013 Cameron was regularly on around 30% in polls and sometimes in the high 20s with Miliband having double digit leads.
The last 3 months could hardly have gone worse for the tories and yet the poll leads are just what you would expect at this time in the election cycle.
I would. The polling intentions would be more than enough to sink him without trace. Conservative MPs and party members like winners not assured losers.
I would guess that 400-500 people will die today from flu/influenza.
Your guess would be wrong. Very clear from the most recent NHS report that the Influenza season hasn't started yet. Zero positive swabs for influenza in the GP Sentinel swabbing survey. No way that would be happening if we were having hundreds dead from influenza today.
We'll see what happens by January. Might have those sorts of figures during that month.
"taking the total number of cases to 4,713" they should really put "confirmed cases" in there. Unless we're sequencing every PCR test - which we aren't.
I would guess that 400-500 people will die today from flu/influenza.
Your guess would be wrong. Very clear from the most recent NHS report that the Influenza season hasn't started yet. Zero positive swabs for influenza in the GP Sentinel swabbing survey. No way that would be happening if we were having hundreds dead from influenza today.
We'll see what happens by January. Might have those sorts of figures during that month.
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
I would. The polling intentions would be more than enough to sink him without trace. Conservative MPs and party members like winners not assured losers.
*cough*Michael Howard*cough*
Indeed, they like winners but not at the complete expense of party principles. For example, members voted for IDS over Ken Clarke because of his pro Euro views even though Clarke polled better with the public. Tory MPs then chose Howard unopposed over Clarke again in 2003
A lot of the mask zealots and the antivaxxers and the lockdown zealots all use the same or similar fake arguments. Vaccines work. The rest of that bullshit doesn't. (FALSE, masks and lockdowns work)
Masks have been trialled and failed (FALSE)
The thing that works isn't cloth masks, its social distancing. (FALSE, both work)
A big reason masks are so popular in East Asia is due to very poor air quality and not due to viruses. (WEIRD)
No, for the vaccinated its not any mitigation whatsoever that they're not going to infect others - which is what the mask is supposedly about. (FALSE, vaccinated people can infect people)
All quotes from @Philip_Thompson Ideology-lead lies from a liar.
Oh you imbecile. So after being called out for lying at the end of the last thread, claiming I said "masks don't work" when your quotation explicitly said mask mandates . . . now you're trawling for months-old comments and taking lines out of context.
The problem with taking lines out of context is you lose the meaning and you're dishonestly changing the meaning. Lets take just one example and ridicule it:
No shit Sherlock that vaccinated people can infect people. I know that you idiot. The "its not any mitigation" didn't refer to masks you fool. What was being discussed was the vaxx passport. The vaccinated people who felt the "need" to wear a mask when in the Commons opposition the Tories, didn't feel the need to do so at Labour Party Conference, supposedly because they'd shown they were vaccinated on the way into Conference. Well they're vaccinated on their way into Parliament too!
If you're wearing your mask to protect others then the fact you've shown you're vaccinated on the way into one building isn't a mitigation. If you need a mask for one, you'd need a mask for both, because the mask is the mitigation not showing your vaccine status to someone on the way into the building!
So well done on getting what I said completely and 100% backwards.
So are you going to apologise for misunderstanding or double-down on your disingenuity?
Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.
Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.
Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
Pretty much anyone (well, anyone other than Rees-Mogg) would be better as PM, but anyone better as PM is going to have to make some decisions, which means telling people some things they don't want to hear. Boris did well in 2019 because of his lying, not despite it. Whilst it's gradually getting through to people that they've been conned, the urge to continue to want to be conned is surprisingly strong (see those harrowing tales of people cheated out of their pensions by fraudsters - it's often very hard to convince them not to continue believing the lies). Therefore, it's not necessarily the case that a replacement leader would transform the Conservative Party's prospects, starting from here; the new leader might please one part of Johnson's 2019 support base, but do worse against another part.
It's this last point which is crucial to the calculations Tory MPs will be making.
That Liz Truss would make a better PM than Johnson says a lot more about him than her! I'd put Priti Patel next to Rees Mogg.
Priti Patel or Jacob Rees-Mogg are potential candidates for a future Tory leader of the opposition.
However hard to see past Sunak for next PM if Boris goes, with Truss and Javid and maybe Zahawi dark horses.
A 5% poll lead for Labour only not too bad all things considering however and Boris will be hoping he gets a 'booster bounce' by January
You think he can survive even if he loses North Shropshire?
No guarantee he will lose North Shropshire. However I think he would get until the end of January now to see if he does get a 'booster bounce'
A vaccine bounce? So lighting strikes twice.
Johnson has more lives than a rampant ginger tom but even I am struggling to see how he survives this without declaring war on China, or similar.
So far as Boris prospects are concerned we have to remember a few fundamentals.
1) Boris did, indeed, get Brexit done. Starmer has nothing to say on that. 2) The vaccine programme was a big success and that may be reinforced by the booster programme. Again, Starmer can't gainsay that. 3) The levelling-up agenda, if pursued vigorously, could provide the Govt with renewed momentum. Again, Starmer has little he can say about that.
So it's too early by far to say that Boris's goose is cooked, never mind that of the Govt. But, yes, he's certainly damaged goods.
Rees-Mogg is beloved by the Tory base and rightwingers though much as Corbyn was beloved by the Labour base and leftwingers.
If Labour win the next general election I would not rule out Rees-Mogg as a future Tory leader and Leader of the Opposition
I would. The polling intentions would be more than enough to sink him without trace. Conservative MPs and party members like winners not assured losers.
Conservative MPs picked Hague over Ken Clarke as leader of the opposition after losing the 1997 general election as well. Plus of course 'assured loser' Corbyn got a hung parliament in 2017 even if he was trounced in 2019.
Email has just been sent to all Civil Servants at the DWP asking them to consider volunteering for the vaccination service, either volunteering in free time or paid during working hours
I have just text my conservative mp who is also a personal friend of nearly 40 years asking for him to support the 1922 seeking Boris to stand down.
We have had a very interesting 'chat' and it is being discussed but at present there is no clear successor
Apparently he has had many e mails asking him to vote against the vaxports and only one in favour hence why the rebellion is likely to be quite extensive
Anyway, to each and every PB poster do not let it be said that I support Boris no matter how I view issues, this action clearly states my position
I would guess that 400-500 people will die today from flu/influenza.
Your guess would be wrong. Very clear from the most recent NHS report that the Influenza season hasn't started yet. Zero positive swabs for influenza in the GP Sentinel swabbing survey. No way that would be happening if we were having hundreds dead from influenza today.
We'll see what happens by January. Might have those sorts of figures during that month.
"Zero positive swabs for influenza in the GP Sentinel swabbing survey" ?!?
In week 48 2021, out of the 112,544 respiratory specimens reported through the Respiratory DataMart System (based on data received from 15 out of 17 laboratories), 2,247 samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2 with an overall positivity of 2.0%. The highest positivity was noted in the 5 to 14-year olds at 7.9% in week 48. The overall influenza positivity remained very low at 0.7% in week 48, with 42 of the 6,267 samples testing positive for influenza (including 12 influenza A(H3N2), 25 influenza A(not subtyped) and 5 influenza . Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) positivity remained low at 4.2% in week 48, with the highest positivity in the under 5-year olds at 11.9%. Rhinovirus positivity increased slightly from 11.6% in week 47 to 12.1% in week 48. Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) positivity continued to increase from 8.4% in week 47 to 10.2% in week 48. Adenovirus positivity remained low at 2.5%, while parainfluenza positivity remained low at 1.9% in week 48 (Figure 16).
Top tip for PBs LFT testing at home. Don't throw away the testing capsule before you record the ID code on it. You will need it together with your NHS number to record your result.
Purple bricks failed to tell renters that their deposits had been projected in the correct timeframe so may have liabilities of between £2-30m.
Under resource is usually the reason for this. I see the danger in my new career already.
It is not popular. People who look for flaws aren't team players. They are derided as doomsters and gloomsters, passed over for promotion and first in line for redundancy. And most of the problems they do find turn out not to matter anyway; they just increased the theoretical risk by a percentage point or two but work went ahead and it was all right on the night. And even if things do break, we can fix them or blame someone else.
I would. The polling intentions would be more than enough to sink him without trace. Conservative MPs and party members like winners not assured losers.
*cough*Michael Howard*cough*
I'd have a lateral flow mate, and please cover your mouth.
"1. Steve Baker 2. Ben Bradley 3. Brendan Clarke-Smith 4. Graham Brady 5. Philip Davies 6. Richard Drax 7. Simon Jupp 8. Stephen McPartland 9. John Redwood 10. Greg Smith 11. Dehenna Davison 12. Marcus Fysh 13. Gary Sambrook 14. Pauline Latham 15. William Wragg 16. Geoffrey Clifton-Brown 17. Iain Duncan Smith 18. Christopher Chope 19. Craig Tracey 20. Robert Syms 21. Anthony Mangnall 22. Greg Clark 23. Esther McVey 24. Liam Fox 25. David Davis 26. Mark Jenkinson 27. Alicia Kearns 28. Mark Harper 29. Darren Henry 30. Steve Brine 31. Craig Mackinlay 32. Simon Fell 33. Andrew Bowie 34. David Warburton 35. Siobhan Baillie 36. David Jones 37. Tom Randall 38. Ben Spencer 39. Andrew Rosindell 40. Charles Walker 41. Douglas Ross 42, Karl McCartney 43. Anne Marie Morris 44. Johnny Mercer 45. Tom Tugendhat 46. Richard Fuller 47. Giles Watling 48. Desmond Swayne 49. Andrew Bridgen 50. Andrew Lewer 51. Christian Wakeford 52. Adam Afriyie 53. Julian Sturdy 54. Peter Bone 55. Chris Grayling 56. Chris Green 57. Tim Loughton 58. Tracey Crouch 59. Miriam Cates 60. Jackie Doyle-Price 61. Lee Anderson 62. Jonathan Djanogly 63. Mark Francois 64. Jill Mortimer 65. Tobias Ellwood 66. Scott Benton 67. Henry Smith 68. Matt Vickers 69. John Hayes 70. Mike Penning 71. Mark Pawsey 72. Nus Ghani 73. Chris Loder 74. Shaun Bailey 75. Robbie Moore 76. Philip Hollobone 77. Tom Hunt"
I would. The polling intentions would be more than enough to sink him without trace. Conservative MPs and party members like winners not assured losers.
*cough*Michael Howard*cough*
Indeed, they like winners but not at the complete expense of party principles. For example, members voted for IDS over Ken Clarke because of his pro Euro views even though Clarke polled better with the public. Tory MPs then chose Howard unopposed over Clarke again in 2003
I would concede IDS. An obvious dud even at the time.
Howard, not so much. The party badly needed someone who was basically competent and a professional, and Howard had done quite well against Gordon Brown as Shadow Chancellor. And there was no appetite for a context at the time anyway.
"1. Steve Baker 2. Ben Bradley 3. Brendan Clarke-Smith 4. Graham Brady 5. Philip Davies 6. Richard Drax 7. Simon Jupp 8. Stephen McPartland 9. John Redwood 10. Greg Smith 11. Dehenna Davison 12. Marcus Fysh 13. Gary Sambrook 14. Pauline Latham 15. William Wragg 16. Geoffrey Clifton-Brown 17. Iain Duncan Smith 18. Christopher Chope 19. Craig Tracey 20. Robert Syms 21. Anthony Mangnall 22. Greg Clark 23. Esther McVey 24. Liam Fox 25. David Davis 26. Mark Jenkinson 27. Alicia Kearns 28. Mark Harper 29. Darren Henry 30. Steve Brine 31. Craig Mackinlay 32. Simon Fell 33. Andrew Bowie 34. David Warburton 35. Siobhan Baillie 36. David Jones 37. Tom Randall 38. Ben Spencer 39. Andrew Rosindell 40. Charles Walker 41. Douglas Ross 42, Karl McCartney 43. Anne Marie Morris 44. Johnny Mercer 45. Tom Tugendhat 46. Richard Fuller 47. Giles Watling 48. Desmond Swayne 49. Andrew Bridgen 50. Andrew Lewer 51. Christian Wakeford 52. Adam Afriyie 53. Julian Sturdy 54. Peter Bone 55. Chris Grayling 56. Chris Green 57. Tim Loughton 58. Tracey Crouch 59. Miriam Cates 60. Jackie Doyle-Price 61. Lee Anderson 62. Jonathan Djanogly 63. Mark Francois 64. Jill Mortimer 65. Tobias Ellwood 66. Scott Benton 67. Henry Smith 68. Matt Vickers 69. John Hayes 70. Mike Penning 71. Mark Pawsey 72. Nus Ghani 73. Chris Loder 74. Shaun Bailey 75. Robbie Moore 76. Philip Hollobone 77. Tom Hunt"
"1. Steve Baker 2. Ben Bradley 3. Brendan Clarke-Smith 4. Graham Brady 5. Philip Davies 6. Richard Drax 7. Simon Jupp 8. Stephen McPartland 9. John Redwood 10. Greg Smith 11. Dehenna Davison 12. Marcus Fysh 13. Gary Sambrook 14. Pauline Latham 15. William Wragg 16. Geoffrey Clifton-Brown 17. Iain Duncan Smith 18. Christopher Chope 19. Craig Tracey 20. Robert Syms 21. Anthony Mangnall 22. Greg Clark 23. Esther McVey 24. Liam Fox 25. David Davis 26. Mark Jenkinson 27. Alicia Kearns 28. Mark Harper 29. Darren Henry 30. Steve Brine 31. Craig Mackinlay 32. Simon Fell 33. Andrew Bowie 34. David Warburton 35. Siobhan Baillie 36. David Jones 37. Tom Randall 38. Ben Spencer 39. Andrew Rosindell 40. Charles Walker 41. Douglas Ross 42, Karl McCartney 43. Anne Marie Morris 44. Johnny Mercer 45. Tom Tugendhat 46. Richard Fuller 47. Giles Watling 48. Desmond Swayne 49. Andrew Bridgen 50. Andrew Lewer 51. Christian Wakeford 52. Adam Afriyie 53. Julian Sturdy 54. Peter Bone 55. Chris Grayling 56. Chris Green 57. Tim Loughton 58. Tracey Crouch 59. Miriam Cates 60. Jackie Doyle-Price 61. Lee Anderson 62. Jonathan Djanogly 63. Mark Francois 64. Jill Mortimer 65. Tobias Ellwood 66. Scott Benton 67. Henry Smith 68. Matt Vickers 69. John Hayes 70. Mike Penning 71. Mark Pawsey 72. Nus Ghani 73. Chris Loder 74. Shaun Bailey 75. Robbie Moore 76. Philip Hollobone 77. Tom Hunt"
Fraser tweeted out the last once with a note than the majority is 79 - if he thinks that bears comparison to the 77 here it suggests he doesn't understand how majorities work.
1) Boris did, indeed, get Brexit done. Starmer has nothing to say on that. 2) The vaccine programme was a big success and that may be reinforced by the booster programme. Again, Starmer can't gainsay that. 3) The levelling-up agenda, if pursued vigorously, could provide the Govt with renewed momentum. Again, Starmer has little he can say about that.
1) Brexit is a disaster. There will come a time when even Tories admit it, but Starmer can say it much sooner than that.
2) It might have been a success, but BoZo has just buggered it up completely by promising something that can't be delivered.
3) The LU agenda is no more real than the Garden Bridge.
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
I would. The polling intentions would be more than enough to sink him without trace. Conservative MPs and party members like winners not assured losers.
*cough*Michael Howard*cough*
Indeed, they like winners but not at the complete expense of party principles. For example, members voted for IDS over Ken Clarke because of his pro Euro views even though Clarke polled better with the public. Tory MPs then chose Howard unopposed over Clarke again in 2003
I would concede IDS. An obvious dud even at the time.
Howard, not so much. The party badly needed someone who was basically competent and a professional, and Howard had done quite well against Gordon Brown as Shadow Chancellor. And there was no appetite for a context at the time anyway.
At the ballot box, IDS did surprisingly well, and better than Howard. It is a bit of a myth that IDS doomed the Tories. He doomed himself because he was no good in the Commons, and got a weekly pasting from Tony Blair at PMQs. This crushed the morale of Tory backbenchers, who ousted him, but was missed by the wider public who have got better things to do than watch parliamentary telly.
Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.
Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.
Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
Pretty much anyone (well, anyone other than Rees-Mogg) would be better as PM, but anyone better as PM is going to have to make some decisions, which means telling people some things they don't want to hear. Boris did well in 2019 because of his lying, not despite it. Whilst it's gradually getting through to people that they've been conned, the urge to continue to want to be conned is surprisingly strong (see those harrowing tales of people cheated out of their pensions by fraudsters - it's often very hard to convince them not to continue believing the lies). Therefore, it's not necessarily the case that a replacement leader would transform the Conservative Party's prospects, starting from here; the new leader might please one part of Johnson's 2019 support base, but do worse against another part.
It's this last point which is crucial to the calculations Tory MPs will be making.
That Liz Truss would make a better PM than Johnson says a lot more about him than her! I'd put Priti Patel next to Rees Mogg.
Priti Patel or Jacob Rees-Mogg are potential candidates for a future Tory leader of the opposition.
However hard to see past Sunak for next PM if Boris goes, with Truss and Javid and maybe Zahawi dark horses.
A 5% poll lead for Labour only not too bad all things considering however and Boris will be hoping he gets a 'booster bounce' by January
You think he can survive even if he loses North Shropshire?
No guarantee he will lose North Shropshire. However I think he would get until the end of January now to see if he does get a 'booster bounce'
A vaccine bounce? So lighting strikes twice.
Johnson has more lives than a rampant ginger tom but even I am struggling to see how he survives this without declaring war on China, or similar.
So far as Boris prospects are concerned we have to remember a few fundamentals.
1) Boris did, indeed, get Brexit done. Starmer has nothing to say on that. 2) The vaccine programme was a big success and that may be reinforced by the booster programme. Again, Starmer can't gainsay that. 3) The levelling-up agenda, if pursued vigorously, could provide the Govt with renewed momentum. Again, Starmer has little he can say about that.
So it's too early by far to say that Boris's goose is cooked, never mind that of the Govt. But, yes, he's certainly damaged goods.
On those fundamentals
1) Done by agreeing to something which he now insists is an unacceptable outrage. Starmer's better off not saying anything about it, but the government's behaviour draws attention to Brexit being quite not done 2) Past success currently overshadowed by perceived ongoing failure after an autumn of drift. Right now Starmer can fairly say the government has to get a grip and deliver what it should already have done (vaccinating under 16s properly is still a big failure) 3) If a core substance-free aspirational policy which would be wildly popular if successful is turned into a substantive programme which is implemented successfully then it would be good for the government that is spinning it. Well, yes, but that's kind of an "if" that would save most governments and not really a plus point for now.
Sajid Javid today said he will be 'personally running' the nation's accelerated Covid booster jab programme as he sidelined Vaccines Minister Maggie Throup. Mr Javid insisted that Ms Throup is 'doing a really important job'
Counting the paper clips?
I watched Maggie Throup on Question Time. Diane Abbott appears to be a comparative genius.
Purple bricks failed to tell renters that their deposits had been projected in the correct timeframe so may have liabilities of between £2-30m.
Under resource is usually the reason for this. I see the danger in my new career already.
Purple Bricks looked like an unusual success story and it's growth on the back of expensive advertising worried me even during the glory days.
A £2m-£30m liability is quite an accounting range.
The screw up goes back to 2012, legally everyone who left after December 13 2015 can currently claim and they don't know how many will claim.
So it's an accounting range because that's being honest you don't know what will happen until you discover whether a law firm decides to trigger a group claim or not.
According to the header article there are 18% of the population who are without doubt complete dunderheads. Boris Johnson can clearly fool some of the people all of the time.
I would guess that 400-500 people will die today from flu/influenza.
Your guess would be wrong. Very clear from the most recent NHS report that the Influenza season hasn't started yet. Zero positive swabs for influenza in the GP Sentinel swabbing survey. No way that would be happening if we were having hundreds dead from influenza today.
We'll see what happens by January. Might have those sorts of figures during that month.
"Zero positive swabs for influenza in the GP Sentinel swabbing survey" ?!?
In week 48 2021, out of the 112,544 respiratory specimens reported through the Respiratory DataMart System (based on data received from 15 out of 17 laboratories), 2,247 samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2 with an overall positivity of 2.0%. The highest positivity was noted in the 5 to 14-year olds at 7.9% in week 48. The overall influenza positivity remained very low at 0.7% in week 48, with 42 of the 6,267 samples testing positive for influenza (including 12 influenza A(H3N2), 25 influenza A(not subtyped) and 5 influenza . Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) positivity remained low at 4.2% in week 48, with the highest positivity in the under 5-year olds at 11.9%. Rhinovirus positivity increased slightly from 11.6% in week 47 to 12.1% in week 48. Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) positivity continued to increase from 8.4% in week 47 to 10.2% in week 48. Adenovirus positivity remained low at 2.5%, while parainfluenza positivity remained low at 1.9% in week 48 (Figure 16).
You know, based on that I think I have a low cost test for influenza that I can have ready to go tomorrow - well, within five minutes, but let's say tomorrow - to any GP surgery (or person) with a PC, that is 99.3% accurate under current prevalence.
And 98% accurate for SARS-CoV-2 under current conditions, although that tricky Omicron variant could lead to reduced accuracy over the next few weeks.
I would. The polling intentions would be more than enough to sink him without trace. Conservative MPs and party members like winners not assured losers.
*cough*Michael Howard*cough*
Indeed, they like winners but not at the complete expense of party principles. For example, members voted for IDS over Ken Clarke because of his pro Euro views even though Clarke polled better with the public. Tory MPs then chose Howard unopposed over Clarke again in 2003
I would concede IDS. An obvious dud even at the time.
Howard, not so much. The party badly needed someone who was basically competent and a professional, and Howard had done quite well against Gordon Brown as Shadow Chancellor. And there was no appetite for a context at the time anyway.
At the ballot box, IDS did surprisingly well, and better than Howard. It is a bit of a myth that IDS doomed the Tories. He doomed himself because he was no good in the Commons, and got a weekly pasting from Tony Blair at PMQs. This crushed the morale of Tory backbenchers, who ousted him, but was missed by the wider public who have got better things to do than watch parliamentary telly.
Nevertheless he’s not that bright and would have been crushed in a GE campaign. The Tories were wise not to let him fight one.
I'm struggling to know why a million vaccines per day is a challenge provided we have the vaccine and there is a link to the database of records of those vaccinated, which we apparently do as they seem to be able to look you up easily when you turn up for a jab
Why do I say this?
Well just like we use the tennis court, football pitch and Wales as a measure of area I sadly use the parliamentary constituency as a measure of area/population often. So to hit 1,000,000 a day we need to vaccinate 1539 people per day per constituency.
That really doesn't seem that much to me. You could do double that with 10 - 15 village halls, 3 retired GPs or retired nurses in each and 2 helpers. Heck my wife is a retired doctor, we have the parking so I reckon I could deal with 100 in a long day in our conservatory which is 6.5% of the total for each day.
What am I missing?
PS they only seem to have exploited retired GP and not other Doctors for this task. My wife might be out of practise but she can stab someone with a needle.
1) Boris did, indeed, get Brexit done. Starmer has nothing to say on that. 2) The vaccine programme was a big success and that may be reinforced by the booster programme. Again, Starmer can't gainsay that. 3) The levelling-up agenda, if pursued vigorously, could provide the Govt with renewed momentum. Again, Starmer has little he can say about that.
1) Brexit is a disaster. There will come a time when even Tories admit it, but Starmer can say it much sooner than that.
2) It might have been a success, but BoZo has just buggered it up completely by promising something that can't be delivered.
3) The LU agenda is no more real than the Garden Bridge.
You dealt with the 3rd point better than I did, and with far fewer words.
1) Boris did, indeed, get Brexit done. Starmer has nothing to say on that. 2) The vaccine programme was a big success and that may be reinforced by the booster programme. Again, Starmer can't gainsay that. 3) The levelling-up agenda, if pursued vigorously, could provide the Govt with renewed momentum. Again, Starmer has little he can say about that.
1) Brexit is a disaster. There will come a time when even Tories admit it, but Starmer can say it much sooner than that.
2) It might have been a success, but BoZo has just buggered it up completely by promising something that can't be delivered.
3) The LU agenda is no more real than the Garden Bridge.
1. You must be joking. It may or may not be a disaster but no-one will be admitting it and Starmer, if he has any sense, will steer well clear.
2. You may well be right. But then again, if he does manage it, and we're ahead of the EU, it doubles down the impression that, at the end of the day, despite the pratfalls, Boris gets stuff done. That's a pretty powerful message which a costive-looking lawyer may struggle to bat away during a noisy election campaign.
3. If he survives, I think you'll see plenty of pics of Boris on building sites across the North of England, beginning with Nissan in the North East. He's good at doing positive.
This is potentially much more terminal for Boris than the Tories being behind in a voting intention poll full of "Don't Knows". Losers and lame ducks don't tend to last long where the Tories are concerned, and he's falled well below May's nadir.
Not good, very cold water in the Baltic at the moment , so if you go into the drink you are unlikely to survive. Condolences for those in peril on the sea.
My wife's family, being from a Scottish fishing community, have lost many of their loved ones at sea over the generations and they are so pleased our son has recently been confirmed as a seagoing RNLI volunteer
Sajid Javid today said he will be 'personally running' the nation's accelerated Covid booster jab programme as he sidelined Vaccines Minister Maggie Throup. Mr Javid insisted that Ms Throup is 'doing a really important job'
Counting the paper clips?
I watched Maggie Throup on Question Time. Diane Abbott appears to be a comparative genius.
Diane Abbott, if you look back at old clips from the late 80s and 90s, used to be bright and funny. She lost that with age, and perhaps responsibility.
Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.
Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.
Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
Hi Max,
I hope you are well, how is the move to Switzerland progressing?
I think a new leader might re-balance the polls but Labour is back up to its 40% coalition, a new leader is unlikely to make many inroads into that.
I personally feel the Tory brand is hugely damaged - but we will see
Hey Horse, It's progressing, my wife is currently having second thoughts on the whole thing and we are going on her insistence so 🤷♂️
Labour is getting a lot of anyone but Boris voters right now, if I was polled I'd probably say Labour. I think Starmer is a wet wipe but Boris is debasing the country. A new Tory leader, assuming it isn't Fabricant or Peter Bone would probably be in a good place to win a lot of Tory voters back overnight. The question is whether the new leader could win back northern working class voters. Some of those may come back, some may stay with Labour and some might just stay home.
If you look at the Opinium subsamples it's striking how high "don't know"is for some demographics: 20% for over-55 year olds. 22% for GE2019 Tory voters. 21% for Rural constituencies. Basically the Tory core vote currently can't bring themselves to say that they'll vote Tory, but they're not saying they'll vote for anyone else.
The "don't knows" are much lower for other demographics: 13% for City constituencies. 12% for Labour holds at GE2019. 10% for 18-34 year olds. 9% for GE2019 Labour voters.
Starmer and Labour have an opening, an opportunity to convince people and seal the deal. Equally, it's still possible for the Tories to change course and win people back.
I have previously predicted an increased Tory majority at the next election. I still think it's possible, as the Tories have some formidable structural and strategic advantages. However, there is currently everything to play for now, and I think the next election could be won or lost by either side over the next five months or so.
Purple bricks failed to tell renters that their deposits had been projected in the correct timeframe so may have liabilities of between £2-30m.
Under resource is usually the reason for this. I see the danger in my new career already.
It is not popular. People who look for flaws aren't team players. They are derided as doomsters and gloomsters, passed over for promotion and first in line for redundancy. And most of the problems they do find turn out not to matter anyway; they just increased the theoretical risk by a percentage point or two but work went ahead and it was all right on the night. And even if things do break, we can fix them or blame someone else.
You are forgetting the most important piece of management thinking -
1) I am only in this job for x months left of 3 years. 2) The problem won't manifest until after I leave. 3) If I admit there is a problem, costs go up and my bonus goes away.
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
Diane Abbott, if you look back at old clips from the late 80s and 90s, used to be bright and funny. She lost that with age, and perhaps responsibility.
Email has just been sent to all Civil Servants at the DWP asking them to consider volunteering for the vaccination service, either volunteering in free time or paid during working hours
Sajid Javid today said he will be 'personally running' the nation's accelerated Covid booster jab programme as he sidelined Vaccines Minister Maggie Throup. Mr Javid insisted that Ms Throup is 'doing a really important job'
Counting the paper clips?
I watched Maggie Throup on Question Time. Diane Abbott appears to be a comparative genius.
Diane Abbott, if you look back at old clips from the late 80s and 90s, used to be bright and funny. She lost that with age, and perhaps responsibility.
People worked out they just had to lure her on to numbers and she would sink.
Sajid Javid today said he will be 'personally running' the nation's accelerated Covid booster jab programme as he sidelined Vaccines Minister Maggie Throup. Mr Javid insisted that Ms Throup is 'doing a really important job'
Counting the paper clips?
I watched Maggie Throup on Question Time. Diane Abbott appears to be a comparative genius.
Diane Abbott, if you look back at old clips from the late 80s and 90s, used to be bright and funny. She lost that with age, and perhaps responsibility.
Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.
Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.
Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
Hi Max,
I hope you are well, how is the move to Switzerland progressing?
I think a new leader might re-balance the polls but Labour is back up to its 40% coalition, a new leader is unlikely to make many inroads into that.
I personally feel the Tory brand is hugely damaged - but we will see
Hey Horse, It's progressing, my wife is currently having second thoughts on the whole thing and we are going on her insistence so 🤷♂️
Labour is getting a lot of anyone but Boris voters right now, if I was polled I'd probably say Labour. I think Starmer is a wet wipe but Boris is debasing the country. A new Tory leader, assuming it isn't Fabricant or Peter Bone would probably be in a good place to win a lot of Tory voters back overnight. The question is whether the new leader could win back northern working class voters. Some of those may come back, some may stay with Labour and some might just stay home.
Fabricant is a social liberal and fairly moderate on economics. Don't know whether or not some people assume he's a right-winger.
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
854,217.
Definitely higher.
1,248,510
OK two entries makes it a competition, I will record entries until noon tomorrow and then declare on January 1st who was closest and award an appropriate prize.
NB. If @RochdalePioneers enters and is closest as at December 30th, I reserve the right to override the competition rules and award the prize to the second nearest guess.
I would. The polling intentions would be more than enough to sink him without trace. Conservative MPs and party members like winners not assured losers.
*cough*Michael Howard*cough*
Indeed, they like winners but not at the complete expense of party principles. For example, members voted for IDS over Ken Clarke because of his pro Euro views even though Clarke polled better with the public. Tory MPs then chose Howard unopposed over Clarke again in 2003
I would concede IDS. An obvious dud even at the time.
Howard, not so much. The party badly needed someone who was basically competent and a professional, and Howard had done quite well against Gordon Brown as Shadow Chancellor. And there was no appetite for a context at the time anyway.
At the ballot box, IDS did surprisingly well, and better than Howard. It is a bit of a myth that IDS doomed the Tories. He doomed himself because he was no good in the Commons, and got a weekly pasting from Tony Blair at PMQs. This crushed the morale of Tory backbenchers, who ousted him, but was missed by the wider public who have got better things to do than watch parliamentary telly.
He got a bit of a mid-term boost in the polls as do most oppositions but clearly nowhere near enough to beat Blair next time round. It was obvious that he would be fried during a campaign. And you've also got to bear in mind the threat, at the time, from the LibDems under Charles Kennedy. It's no wonder he was VONC-ed. Truly hopeless.
Everyone who needs a lateral flow test can collect test kits from - Local pharmacies - Some community sites - Some schools and colleges
There is no shortage of lateral flow tests. Ordering test kits for delivery has been temporarily suspended so we can work to fulfil current orders. Find your closest location to collect a lateral flow test: https://maps.test-and-trace.nhs.uk
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
854,217.
Definitely higher.
1,248,510
OK two entries makes it a competition, I will record entries until noon tomorrow and then declare on January 1st who was closest and award an appropriate prize.
NB. If @RochdalePioneers enters and is closest as at December 30th, I reserve the right to override the competition rules and award the prize to the second nearest guess.
Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.
Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.
Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
Hi Max,
I hope you are well, how is the move to Switzerland progressing?
I think a new leader might re-balance the polls but Labour is back up to its 40% coalition, a new leader is unlikely to make many inroads into that.
I personally feel the Tory brand is hugely damaged - but we will see
Hey Horse, It's progressing, my wife is currently having second thoughts on the whole thing and we are going on her insistence so 🤷♂️
Labour is getting a lot of anyone but Boris voters right now, if I was polled I'd probably say Labour. I think Starmer is a wet wipe but Boris is debasing the country. A new Tory leader, assuming it isn't Fabricant or Peter Bone would probably be in a good place to win a lot of Tory voters back overnight. The question is whether the new leader could win back northern working class voters. Some of those may come back, some may stay with Labour and some might just stay home.
Fabricant is a social liberal and fairly moderate on economics. Don't know whether or not some people assume he's a right-winger.
TBH, Micky Fab makes such a strong and immediate impression that I don't think most spectators ever get as far as wondering about his place on the political spectrum.
Email has just been sent to all Civil Servants at the DWP asking them to consider volunteering for the vaccination service, either volunteering in free time or paid during working hours
I thought it was quite amusing. In any case, separating out the respective impacts of Brexit and Covid is completely impossible, and therefore the question is obviously pointless.
This is potentially much more terminal for Boris than the Tories being behind in a voting intention poll full of "Don't Knows". Losers and lame ducks don't tend to last long where the Tories are concerned, and he's falled well below May's nadir.
We can all post how terminal this is for Boris but the chat exchange I posted earlier with my conservative mp, and personal friend, clearly indicates it is being discussed but as there is not a clear alternative it is not certain it will happen quickly
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
Three hundred thousand and thirty four nine hundred and seventy four thousand
One big lunch for 100+ people = cancelled One party for 50 = not cancelled.
I think people are cancelling not necessarily because they are worried about getting the virus (it may be that) but that they will be pinged and therefore out of the game over Christmas.
That is exactly my experience – people are more worried about isolation than the virus itself!
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
Three hundred thousand and thirty four nine hundred and seventy four thousand
I wish the by-election was today. It's irritating having to wait until Thursday to find out what the next step in British politics is going to be, and we can't know that without the North Shropshire result.
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
854,217.
Definitely higher.
1,248,510
OK two entries makes it a competition, I will record entries until noon tomorrow and then declare on January 1st who was closest and award an appropriate prize.
NB. If @RochdalePioneers enters and is closest as at December 30th, I reserve the right to override the competition rules and award the prize to the second nearest guess.
UK PM @BorisJohnson tells President Putin in call of UK's "deep concern" over build-up of Russian forces on Ukraine’s border & its "commitment to Ukraine’s territorial integrity" + warns "destabilising action" would be a "strategic mistake" with "significant consequences".
54,661 cases and 38 deaths. A modest increase in admissions. Slightly disappointing number of boosters (397,532).
Still over 100K higher than the previous week and it was a Sunday. I will be watching the number for today (including me) that will be released tomorrow with interest.
The most incredible thing about Peleton, they lost money during the pandemic.....apparently they kept advertising to such a crazy extent, such their customer acquisition costs were so high they never making it back.
Lost 16% market cap last week because they authorised Sex and the City to use their name but did not enquire about the plot. It was to kill off Mr Big with a heart attack.
The management sounds like they are totally incompetent.
Apparently their profit margin on each bike is hardly anything, so they need the subscriptions. The advertising spend they did during the pandemic, they literally kept doubling down, to the extent where they needed to be converting new customers at rates they have never achieved before and for them to become members for lengths like they have never managed, for a niche product that costs £2k to start and then £40 / month...so its not like you are flogging stuff in a pound shop. The number of people in the world who can even afford their product is seriously capped.
And then they reduced the price of their product, which must have seriously pissed off those who had recently purchased at the full price.
The real value in Peloton as a business is the data it owns. As long as that is being stored and managed properly, it is going to be fine.
What essential valuable data are they collecting? Their systems don't measure things like heart rate accurately. I don't believe the bikes don't even have accurate power meters built in.
If you were hoping that you were getting fantastic fitness data, I don't see it, in the way you get it from Zwift, where all the keeno's are inputting their stats every week, wearing their heart monitors, they use smart trainers which produces extremely detailed power, cadence, etc data....
Zwift is a gold mine of health tracking data.
Ummm: Peloton doesn't measure heart rate at all. Just like Zwift it connects to other firms' heart rate monitors.
Your power meter comment is correct, mind. The Peloton built in power meter reads about 20 Watts higher than my power meter pedals. (I use my Peloton to Zwift.)
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges I just don't understand how - given the clear evidence on hospitalisation rates, length of average stay for those who are hospitalised, and death rates - there is so much panic about the new variant. Especially given UK's relatively high vaccination rates.
That's *largely* my view. That South Africa's ICU occupancy, despite the disease ripping through Guanteng and the rest of the country, is just 6.3% is highly encouraging.
With that said, it's important to note that there are big lags involved. That South Africa number was released last week, and covered the period from 14 November to 4 December. So, it covered a period when Omicron was first non-existent, to one where it was still not as widespread as now. Plus, if there's an average of 10 days from infection to hospitalisation, then it's *possible* there is a surge of hospitalisations to come.
But every day makes that less likely. If we don't see the South African health service being badly hit, then we can reasonably conclude that the UK's is unlikely to be hammered either.
(Yes, South Africans are younger than Brits. But their health service capacity reflects that. Plus they're poorer, more likely to be obese or to be HIV-positive, and less likely to be vaccinated. If the South Africans survive Omicron without either significant restrictions or their health service being overwhelmed, then I think we'll be OK.)
This is potentially much more terminal for Boris than the Tories being behind in a voting intention poll full of "Don't Knows". Losers and lame ducks don't tend to last long where the Tories are concerned, and he's falled well below May's nadir.
I would guess that 400-500 people will die today from flu/influenza.
In the UK?
That's probably a bit high. There will be around 15-20,000 deaths from influenza this year, with 80% of them being between November and March. Even if they were equally spread, that would only be 100-125/day.
Comments
That seems a lot lower than I imagined when the system went into meltdown.
By the time I got my jabs, they asked that when you checked in.
If Labour win the next general election I would not rule out Rees-Mogg as a future Tory leader and Leader of the Opposition
For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com
So what IS in Plan C? Boris Johnson refuses THREE TIMES to rule out tighter restrictions before Christmas amid fears he could impose social distancing, rule of six, masks and Covid passports in pubs - as Scots minister warns further curbs are 'inevitable
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10303801/Scotland-Wales-threaten-introduce-Plan-C-Sturgeon-Drakeford-warn-Covid-curbs-likely.html
Johnson has more lives than a rampant ginger tom but even I am struggling to see how he survives this without declaring war on China, or similar.
Throup is 'doing a really important job'
Counting the paper clips?
The last 3 months could hardly have gone worse for the tories and yet the poll leads are just what you would expect at this time in the election cycle.
We'll see what happens by January. Might have those sorts of figures during that month.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
The problem with taking lines out of context is you lose the meaning and you're dishonestly changing the meaning. Lets take just one example and ridicule it:
No, for the vaccinated its not any mitigation whatsoever that they're not going to infect others - which is what the mask is supposedly about.
(FALSE, vaccinated people can infect people)
The original comment and discussion can be viewed here for full context
No shit Sherlock that vaccinated people can infect people. I know that you idiot. The "its not any mitigation" didn't refer to masks you fool. What was being discussed was the vaxx passport. The vaccinated people who felt the "need" to wear a mask when in the Commons opposition the Tories, didn't feel the need to do so at Labour Party Conference, supposedly because they'd shown they were vaccinated on the way into Conference. Well they're vaccinated on their way into Parliament too!
If you're wearing your mask to protect others then the fact you've shown you're vaccinated on the way into one building isn't a mitigation. If you need a mask for one, you'd need a mask for both, because the mask is the mitigation not showing your vaccine status to someone on the way into the building!
So well done on getting what I said completely and 100% backwards.
So are you going to apologise for misunderstanding or double-down on your disingenuity?
1) Boris did, indeed, get Brexit done. Starmer has nothing to say on that.
2) The vaccine programme was a big success and that may be reinforced by the booster programme. Again, Starmer can't gainsay that.
3) The levelling-up agenda, if pursued vigorously, could provide the Govt with renewed momentum. Again, Starmer has little he can say about that.
So it's too early by far to say that Boris's goose is cooked, never mind that of the Govt. But, yes, he's certainly damaged goods.
Nothing in politics is certain
We have had a very interesting 'chat' and it is being discussed but at present there is no clear successor
Apparently he has had many e mails asking him to vote against the vaxports and only one in favour hence why the rebellion is likely to be quite extensive
Anyway, to each and every PB poster do not let it be said that I support Boris no matter how I view issues, this action clearly states my position
He needs to stand down
DataMart System (based on data received from 15 out of 17 laboratories), 2,247 samples were
positive for SARS-CoV-2 with an overall positivity of 2.0%. The highest positivity was noted in
the 5 to 14-year olds at 7.9% in week 48.
The overall influenza positivity remained very low at 0.7% in week 48, with 42 of the 6,267
samples testing positive for influenza (including 12 influenza A(H3N2), 25 influenza A(not
subtyped) and 5 influenza
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) positivity remained low at 4.2% in week 48, with the highest
positivity in the under 5-year olds at 11.9%. Rhinovirus positivity increased slightly from 11.6%
in week 47 to 12.1% in week 48. Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) positivity continued to
increase from 8.4% in week 47 to 10.2% in week 48. Adenovirus positivity remained low at
2.5%, while parainfluenza positivity remained low at 1.9% in week 48 (Figure 16).
"1. Steve Baker 2. Ben Bradley 3. Brendan Clarke-Smith 4. Graham Brady 5. Philip Davies
6. Richard Drax 7. Simon Jupp 8. Stephen McPartland 9. John Redwood 10. Greg Smith
11. Dehenna Davison 12. Marcus Fysh 13. Gary Sambrook 14. Pauline Latham 15. William Wragg
16. Geoffrey Clifton-Brown 17. Iain Duncan Smith 18. Christopher Chope 19. Craig Tracey 20. Robert Syms
21. Anthony Mangnall 22. Greg Clark 23. Esther McVey 24. Liam Fox 25. David Davis
26. Mark Jenkinson 27. Alicia Kearns 28. Mark Harper 29. Darren Henry 30. Steve Brine
31. Craig Mackinlay 32. Simon Fell 33. Andrew Bowie 34. David Warburton 35. Siobhan Baillie
36. David Jones 37. Tom Randall 38. Ben Spencer 39. Andrew Rosindell 40. Charles Walker
41. Douglas Ross 42, Karl McCartney 43. Anne Marie Morris 44. Johnny Mercer 45. Tom Tugendhat
46. Richard Fuller 47. Giles Watling 48. Desmond Swayne 49. Andrew Bridgen 50. Andrew Lewer
51. Christian Wakeford 52. Adam Afriyie 53. Julian Sturdy 54. Peter Bone 55. Chris Grayling
56. Chris Green 57. Tim Loughton 58. Tracey Crouch 59. Miriam Cates 60. Jackie Doyle-Price
61. Lee Anderson 62. Jonathan Djanogly 63. Mark Francois 64. Jill Mortimer 65. Tobias Ellwood
66. Scott Benton 67. Henry Smith 68. Matt Vickers 69. John Hayes 70. Mike Penning
71. Mark Pawsey 72. Nus Ghani 73. Chris Loder 74. Shaun Bailey 75. Robbie Moore
76. Philip Hollobone 77. Tom Hunt"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-list-the-plan-b-tory-rebels
Howard, not so much. The party badly needed someone who was basically competent and a professional, and Howard had done quite well against Gordon Brown as Shadow Chancellor. And there was no appetite for a context at the time anyway.
A £2m-£30m liability is quite an accounting range.
2) It might have been a success, but BoZo has just buggered it up completely by promising something that can't be delivered.
3) The LU agenda is no more real than the Garden Bridge.
1) Done by agreeing to something which he now insists is an unacceptable outrage. Starmer's better off not saying anything about it, but the government's behaviour draws attention to Brexit being quite not done
2) Past success currently overshadowed by perceived ongoing failure after an autumn of drift. Right now Starmer can fairly say the government has to get a grip and deliver what it should already have done (vaccinating under 16s properly is still a big failure)
3) If a core substance-free aspirational policy which would be wildly popular if successful is turned into a substantive programme which is implemented successfully then it would be good for the government that is spinning it. Well, yes, but that's kind of an "if" that would save most governments and not really a plus point for now.
So it's an accounting range because that's being honest you don't know what will happen until you discover whether a law firm decides to trigger a group claim or not.
And 98% accurate for SARS-CoV-2 under current conditions, although that tricky Omicron variant could lead to reduced accuracy over the next few weeks.
Doesn't even need samples to be taken
Why do I say this?
Well just like we use the tennis court, football pitch and Wales as a measure of area I sadly use the parliamentary constituency as a measure of area/population often. So to hit 1,000,000 a day we need to vaccinate 1539 people per day per constituency.
That really doesn't seem that much to me. You could do double that with 10 - 15 village halls, 3 retired GPs or retired nurses in each and 2 helpers. Heck my wife is a retired doctor, we have the parking so I reckon I could deal with 100 in a long day in our conservatory which is 6.5% of the total for each day.
What am I missing?
PS they only seem to have exploited retired GP and not other Doctors for this task. My wife might be out of practise but she can stab someone with a needle.
2. You may well be right. But then again, if he does manage it, and we're ahead of the EU, it doubles down the impression that, at the end of the day, despite the pratfalls, Boris gets stuff done. That's a pretty powerful message which a costive-looking lawyer may struggle to bat away during a noisy election campaign.
3. If he survives, I think you'll see plenty of pics of Boris on building sites across the North of England, beginning with Nissan in the North East. He's good at doing positive.
https://twitter.com/josephjaylufc/status/1470419136257970178
https://twitter.com/benatipsos/status/1470402997117198338
20% for over-55 year olds.
22% for GE2019 Tory voters.
21% for Rural constituencies.
Basically the Tory core vote currently can't bring themselves to say that they'll vote Tory, but they're not saying they'll vote for anyone else.
The "don't knows" are much lower for other demographics:
13% for City constituencies.
12% for Labour holds at GE2019.
10% for 18-34 year olds.
9% for GE2019 Labour voters.
Starmer and Labour have an opening, an opportunity to convince people and seal the deal. Equally, it's still possible for the Tories to change course and win people back.
I have previously predicted an increased Tory majority at the next election. I still think it's possible, as the Tories have some formidable structural and strategic advantages. However, there is currently everything to play for now, and I think the next election could be won or lost by either side over the next five months or so.
1) I am only in this job for x months left of 3 years.
2) The problem won't manifest until after I leave.
3) If I admit there is a problem, costs go up and my bonus goes away.
1,248,510
https://www.rte.ie/archives/2017/1205/925207-diane-abbott-first-black-woman-mp/
NB. If @RochdalePioneers enters and is closest as at December 30th, I reserve the right to override the competition rules and award the prize to the second nearest guess.
- Local pharmacies
- Some community sites
- Some schools and colleges
There is no shortage of lateral flow tests. Ordering test kits for delivery has been temporarily suspended so we can work to fulfil current orders.
Find your closest location to collect a lateral flow test: https://maps.test-and-trace.nhs.uk
https://twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1470418992770785288?s=20
An unlikely alliance is forming between Paris and the central European state"
https://unherd.com/the-post/
The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Entry to Venues and Events) (England) Regulations 2021
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/1416/contents/made https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1470420529827954691/photo/1
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1470423183039897605?s=20
Or is that figure too (ahem) minute?
https://twitter.com/BBCJLandale/status/1470424926133882893?s=20
Your power meter comment is correct, mind. The Peloton built in power meter reads about 20 Watts higher than my power meter pedals. (I use my Peloton to Zwift.)
Hospitalisations up 14% on same day last week.
Death down.
My granny used to tell me, too much of that of my girl and you will turn into Boris, we can’t have our little Angel turning into Boris now can we? 😄
With that said, it's important to note that there are big lags involved. That South Africa number was released last week, and covered the period from 14 November to 4 December. So, it covered a period when Omicron was first non-existent, to one where it was still not as widespread as now. Plus, if there's an average of 10 days from infection to hospitalisation, then it's *possible* there is a surge of hospitalisations to come.
But every day makes that less likely. If we don't see the South African health service being badly hit, then we can reasonably conclude that the UK's is unlikely to be hammered either.
(Yes, South Africans are younger than Brits. But their health service capacity reflects that. Plus they're poorer, more likely to be obese or to be HIV-positive, and less likely to be vaccinated. If the South Africans survive Omicron without either significant restrictions or their health service being overwhelmed, then I think we'll be OK.)
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2019-05/pm_-_tables.pdf
That's probably a bit high. There will be around 15-20,000 deaths from influenza this year, with 80% of them being between November and March. Even if they were equally spread, that would only be 100-125/day.