This is potentially much more terminal for Boris than the Tories being behind in a voting intention poll full of "Don't Knows". Losers and lame ducks don't tend to last long where the Tories are concerned, and he's falled well below May's nadir.
I would guess that 400-500 people will die today from flu/influenza.
In the UK?
That's probably a bit high. There will be around 15-20,000 deaths from influenza this year, with 80% of them being between November and March. Even if they were equally spread, that would only be 100-125/day.
A lot of the mask zealots and the antivaxxers and the lockdown zealots all use the same or similar fake arguments. Vaccines work. The rest of that bullshit doesn't. (FALSE, masks and lockdowns work)
Masks have been trialled and failed (FALSE)
The thing that works isn't cloth masks, its social distancing. (FALSE, both work)
A big reason masks are so popular in East Asia is due to very poor air quality and not due to viruses. (WEIRD)
No, for the vaccinated its not any mitigation whatsoever that they're not going to infect others - which is what the mask is supposedly about. (FALSE, vaccinated people can infect people)
All quotes from @Philip_Thompson Ideology-lead lies from a liar.
Oh you imbecile. So after being called out for lying at the end of the last thread, claiming I said "masks don't work" when your quotation explicitly said mask mandates . . . now you're trawling for months-old comments and taking lines out of context.
The problem with taking lines out of context is you lose the meaning and you're dishonestly changing the meaning. Lets take just one example and ridicule it:
No shit Sherlock that vaccinated people can infect people. I know that you idiot. The "its not any mitigation" didn't refer to masks you fool. What was being discussed was the vaxx passport. The vaccinated people who felt the "need" to wear a mask when in the Commons opposition the Tories, didn't feel the need to do so at Labour Party Conference, supposedly because they'd shown they were vaccinated on the way into Conference. Well they're vaccinated on their way into Parliament too!
If you're wearing your mask to protect others then the fact you've shown you're vaccinated on the way into one building isn't a mitigation. If you need a mask for one, you'd need a mask for both, because the mask is the mitigation not showing your vaccine status to someone on the way into the building!
So well done on getting what I said completely and 100% backwards.
So are you going to apologise for misunderstanding or double-down on your disingenuity?
A photograph that will accelerate the heart rate of certain PBers.
Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.
Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.
Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
Pretty much anyone (well, anyone other than Rees-Mogg) would be better as PM, but anyone better as PM is going to have to make some decisions, which means telling people some things they don't want to hear. Boris did well in 2019 because of his lying, not despite it. Whilst it's gradually getting through to people that they've been conned, the urge to continue to want to be conned is surprisingly strong (see those harrowing tales of people cheated out of their pensions by fraudsters - it's often very hard to convince them not to continue believing the lies). Therefore, it's not necessarily the case that a replacement leader would transform the Conservative Party's prospects, starting from here; the new leader might please one part of Johnson's 2019 support base, but do worse against another part.
It's this last point which is crucial to the calculations Tory MPs will be making.
That Liz Truss would make a better PM than Johnson says a lot more about him than her! I'd put Priti Patel next to Rees Mogg.
Priti Patel or Jacob Rees-Mogg are potential candidates for a future Tory leader of the opposition.
However hard to see past Sunak for next PM if Boris goes, with Truss and Javid and maybe Zahawi dark horses.
A 5% poll lead for Labour only not too bad all things considering however and Boris will be hoping he gets a 'booster bounce' by January
You think he can survive even if he loses North Shropshire?
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
In the US, you can walk into pretty much any pharmacy and get a booster dose. Some require appointments, others are walk up. There are websites you can use to see which of J&J/Moderna/Pfizer is being distributed at each pharmacy.
In retrospect, I should have got the J&J booster, rather than the Moderna one, but hey-hey.
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
854,217.
Definitely higher.
1,248,510
OK two entries makes it a competition, I will record entries until noon tomorrow and then declare on January 1st who was closest and award an appropriate prize.
NB. If @RochdalePioneers enters and is closest as at December 30th, I reserve the right to override the competition rules and award the prize to the second nearest guess.
.@sajidjavid is delivering the statement. And, in a possible metaphor for her wider lack of visibility, vaccines minister Maggie Throup was absent from the start of the statement and has only just joined the front bench https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1470428885963714561
Big: Sajid Javid tells MPs Covid passes will not be valid unless holders have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab".
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges I just don't understand how - given the clear evidence on hospitalisation rates, length of average stay for those who are hospitalised, and death rates - there is so much panic about the new variant. Especially given UK's relatively high vaccination rates.
That's *largely* my view. That South Africa's ICU occupancy, despite the disease ripping through Guanteng and the rest of the country, is just 6.3% is highly encouraging.
With that said, it's important to note that there are big lags involved. That South Africa number was released last week, and covered the period from 14 November to 4 December. So, it covered a period when Omicron was first non-existent, to one where it was still not as widespread as now. Plus, if there's an average of 10 days from infection to hospitalisation, then it's *possible* there is a surge of hospitalisations to come.
But every day makes that less likely. If we don't see the South African health service being badly hit, then we can reasonably conclude that the UK's is unlikely to be hammered either.
(Yes, South Africans are younger than Brits. But their health service capacity reflects that. Plus they're poorer, more likely to be obese or to be HIV-positive, and less likely to be vaccinated. If the South Africans survive Omicron without either significant restrictions or their health service being overwhelmed, then I think we'll be OK.)
Apologising if I am pointing out something that is so completely wrong but surely that data from Gauteng should be even more encouraging considering that there is likely to be a large percentage of HIV positive people who caught the virus and whose immune systems are already compromised? I know @rcs1000 made a side comment on that but I would have thought a severely compromised immune system would be a big factor when it came to hospitalisation
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
I don't know why that 15 mins wait was still in place anyway. Didn't it all come from a couple of isolated incidents were they suffered anaphylactic shock, as they were already vulnerable to it.
By the time I got my jabs, they asked that when you checked in.
In the US, you're expected to wait 15 minutes after getting your dose to ensure you don't go into anaphylactic shock. But it's probably quite unnecessary - we're not giving the vaccine to four year olds, so if anyone is susceptible to that, it's probably already known.
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
854,217.
Definitely higher.
1,248,510
OK two entries makes it a competition, I will record entries until noon tomorrow and then declare on January 1st who was closest and award an appropriate prize.
NB. If @RochdalePioneers enters and is closest as at December 30th, I reserve the right to override the competition rules and award the prize to the second nearest guess.
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
854,217.
Definitely higher.
1,248,510
OK two entries makes it a competition, I will record entries until noon tomorrow and then declare on January 1st who was closest and award an appropriate prize.
NB. If @RochdalePioneers enters and is closest as at December 30th, I reserve the right to override the competition rules and award the prize to the second nearest guess.
1,572,864
I think Christmas will have the effect of making the figures more lumpy, and produce a small number of humdinger days.
.@sajidjavid is delivering the statement. And, in a possible metaphor for her wider lack of visibility, vaccines minister Maggie Throup was absent from the start of the statement and has only just joined the front bench https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1470428885963714561
Maggie Throup? Honestly never heard that name before.
Wes Streeting going on the difference between what Johnson promised last night (all jabbed before New Year) and today's clarification of "all offered jab before New Year."
I found something so flipping magical I haven’t never ever seen before I got to share it! https://youtu.be/-ZxTCV6wQbA
Your posts always make me smile Moon, even when I can feel down
Vintage Emmerdale Farm, first ever episode from 24 years before I was even born, how flipping exciting is that! Proper characters, proper storylines, proper writing proper serious like, outside broadcast with proper horse riding, proper sheep and geese and Yorkshire is the real star. 😍
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
854,217.
Definitely higher.
1,248,510
OK two entries makes it a competition, I will record entries until noon tomorrow and then declare on January 1st who was closest and award an appropriate prize.
NB. If @RochdalePioneers enters and is closest as at December 30th, I reserve the right to override the competition rules and award the prize to the second nearest guess.
1,572,864
I think Christmas will have the effect of making the figures more lumpy, and produce a small number of humdinger days.
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
In the US, you can walk into pretty much any pharmacy and get a booster dose. Some require appointments, others are walk up. There are websites you can use to see which of J&J/Moderna/Pfizer is being distributed at each pharmacy.
In retrospect, I should have got the J&J booster, rather than the Moderna one, but hey-hey.
No, you shouldn't have. The viral vector booster all did pretty poorly in the UK study into booster doses. J&J particularly so, it's why the whole programme is based on Pfizer and Moderna, both of those gave between a 12x and 20x boost in antibodies and a 7-10x boost in t-cell response. Viral vector vaccines were 2-4x and 1-2x respectively and from a similarly low base of waned efficacy.
AZ/AZ/Moderna had a 37x boost in antibodies and 15x boost in modelled t-cell immunity iirc.
Three Moderna doses actually nets more overall antibodies with a smaller multiplier (because of base effects) but slightly less modelled t-cell immunity and AZ/AZ/Moderna.
Pfizer/Pfizer/J&J was the worst overall efficacy. Moderna/Moderna/J&J wasn't tested.
Mix and match works best with a viral vector primer, rather than booster. No one quite knows why yet either.
.@sajidjavid is delivering the statement. And, in a possible metaphor for her wider lack of visibility, vaccines minister Maggie Throup was absent from the start of the statement and has only just joined the front bench https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1470428885963714561
Maggie Throup? Honestly never heard that name before.
A former biomedical scientist. You'd think she be better with vaccines. As a couple of us reported the other day she went on Question Time a week or so ago and had a DREADFUL time.
Big: Sajid Javid tells MPs Covid passes will not be valid unless holders have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab".
How is he defining "Covid Pass"? I've had to show status or no entry. One of my two vax QR codes on a screen barely glanced at and in I went.
The major problem with vaxports is that unless there is a national standard imposed and strictly adhered to, people can show anything which makes them pointless. And the government still gets to faff about with your data and demand "your papers please"
Crumbs. Javid says estimated 200k omicron cases per day. 20% in England 44% in London. That is a great deal. Expected to be dominant in 48 hours. Blimey.
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
In the US, you can walk into pretty much any pharmacy and get a booster dose. Some require appointments, others are walk up. There are websites you can use to see which of J&J/Moderna/Pfizer is being distributed at each pharmacy.
In retrospect, I should have got the J&J booster, rather than the Moderna one, but hey-hey.
No, you shouldn't have. The viral vector booster all did pretty poorly in the UK study into booster doses. J&J particularly so, it's why the whole programme is based on Pfizer and Moderna, both of those gave between a 12x and 20x boost in antibodies and a 7-10x boost in t-cell response. Viral vector vaccines were 2-4x and 1-2x respectively and from a similarly low base of waned efficacy.
AZ/AZ/Moderna had a 37x boost in antibodies and 15x boost in modelled t-cell immunity iirc.
Three Moderna doses actually nets more overall antibodies with a smaller multiplier (because of base effects) but slightly less modelled t-cell immunity and AZ/AZ/Moderna.
Pfizer/Pfizer/J&J was the worst overall efficacy. Moderna/Moderna/J&J wasn't tested.
Mix and match works best with a viral vector primer, rather than booster. No one quite knows why yet either.
As someone who had AZ/AZ is there much of a difference between Moderna or Pfizer as the booster or is it much of a muchness?
Wes Streeting going on the difference between what Johnson promised last night (all jabbed before New Year) and today's clarification of "all offered jab before New Year."
It makes little difference, we will still likely have by far the highest percentage of adults jabbed with their boosters by January 2nd of any major western nation
Wes Streeting going on the difference between what Johnson promised last night (all jabbed before New Year) and today's clarification of "all offered jab before New Year."
Has anyone the sense to ask the government to confirm which year?
I’m mean if Moggy right and NHS got the £350M a week Brexit dividend in 2018, we’ve probably all had our booster jabs already without knowing 😀
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
In the US, you can walk into pretty much any pharmacy and get a booster dose. Some require appointments, others are walk up. There are websites you can use to see which of J&J/Moderna/Pfizer is being distributed at each pharmacy.
In retrospect, I should have got the J&J booster, rather than the Moderna one, but hey-hey.
No, you shouldn't have. The viral vector booster all did pretty poorly in the UK study into booster doses. J&J particularly so, it's why the whole programme is based on Pfizer and Moderna, both of those gave between a 12x and 20x boost in antibodies and a 7-10x boost in t-cell response. Viral vector vaccines were 2-4x and 1-2x respectively and from a similarly low base of waned efficacy.
AZ/AZ/Moderna had a 37x boost in antibodies and 15x boost in modelled t-cell immunity iirc.
Three Moderna doses actually nets more overall antibodies with a smaller multiplier (because of base effects) but slightly less modelled t-cell immunity and AZ/AZ/Moderna.
Pfizer/Pfizer/J&J was the worst overall efficacy. Moderna/Moderna/J&J wasn't tested.
Mix and match works best with a viral vector primer, rather than booster. No one quite knows why yet either.
As someone who had AZ/AZ is there much of a difference between Moderna or Pfizer as the booster or is it much of a muchness?
Not massively different, there's also some small evidence that Moderna is less good against Omicron and Pfizer is a bit better so who knows really.
- Cases are are flattish overall, still rising fast in some areas. But no sign of going ballistic. yet - Admissions. There is missing data. - Deaths. Flat
Crumbs. Javid says estimated 200k omicron cases per day. 20% in England 44% in London. That is a great deal. Expected to be dominant in 48 hours. Blimey.
There's 200k Omicron cases per day now? That seems unlikely, but it would be great to have a real time ONS style study.
If that's the peak then I'm not sure it's a huge deal.
The Saj admits not everyone can get there booster by the end of December.
I got onto the site shortly after midday - first attempt, earliest available slot was 30 December, but it logged me out before I could book - second attempt, I found one slot on 29 December. It seems likely that, by now, that particular pharmacist already has no slots available until 2022.
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
In the US, you can walk into pretty much any pharmacy and get a booster dose. Some require appointments, others are walk up. There are websites you can use to see which of J&J/Moderna/Pfizer is being distributed at each pharmacy.
In retrospect, I should have got the J&J booster, rather than the Moderna one, but hey-hey.
No, you shouldn't have. The viral vector booster all did pretty poorly in the UK study into booster doses. J&J particularly so, it's why the whole programme is based on Pfizer and Moderna, both of those gave between a 12x and 20x boost in antibodies and a 7-10x boost in t-cell response. Viral vector vaccines were 2-4x and 1-2x respectively and from a similarly low base of waned efficacy.
AZ/AZ/Moderna had a 37x boost in antibodies and 15x boost in modelled t-cell immunity iirc.
Three Moderna doses actually nets more overall antibodies with a smaller multiplier (because of base effects) but slightly less modelled t-cell immunity and AZ/AZ/Moderna.
Pfizer/Pfizer/J&J was the worst overall efficacy. Moderna/Moderna/J&J wasn't tested.
Mix and match works best with a viral vector primer, rather than booster. No one quite knows why yet either.
As someone who had AZ/AZ is there much of a difference between Moderna or Pfizer as the booster or is it much of a muchness?
Not massively different, there's also some small evidence that Moderna is less good against Omicron and Pfizer is a bit better so who knows really.
Crumbs. Javid says estimated 200k omicron cases per day. 20% in England 44% in London. That is a great deal. Expected to be dominant in 48 hours. Blimey.
The reported figures seem to be becoming a smaller fraction of the real infection number. Is this because of more asymptomatic cases with Omicron?
Big: Sajid Javid tells MPs Covid passes will not be valid unless holders have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab".
How is he defining "Covid Pass"? I've had to show status or no entry. One of my two vax QR codes on a screen barely glanced at and in I went.
The major problem with vaxports is that unless there is a national standard imposed and strictly adhered to, people can show anything which makes them pointless. And the government still gets to faff about with your data and demand "your papers please"
Maybe he could sort the fact that as far as I know, the covid pass on paper, sent by letter from NHS DOES NOT YET show the booster status. Weeks after the NHS app does.
Why is this so difficult if these passes are so important?
The Saj admits not everyone can get there booster by the end of December.
Didn't his Leader PROMISE that!
Saj just repeated that the intention is for everyone to be offered a chance to get boosted this month, but that it requires them to come forward for their appointment when offered and to take up the opportunity and for things to go right.
So there's no difference between the two. Obviously if someone is offered a chance to be boosted and they turn around and say "no that date doesn't work for me" or "no I don't want it" then they're not going to get boosted. You actually need to turn up! 🙄
Big: Sajid Javid tells MPs Covid passes will not be valid unless holders have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab".
How is he defining "Covid Pass"? I've had to show status or no entry. One of my two vax QR codes on a screen barely glanced at and in I went.
The major problem with vaxports is that unless there is a national standard imposed and strictly adhered to, people can show anything which makes them pointless. And the government still gets to faff about with your data and demand "your papers please"
Yes, dropping in on cafes and the like, I see prominent signs saying strictly no admittance without showing evidence, blah, blah, but staff making no effort to apply the rule. A fundamental problem is that commercial establishments have an obvious short-term interest in letting anyone in, even though one can argue that their medium-term interest is that their customers don't get ill. Add to that the risk of alienating customers by turning them away, and you can see why it's not happening. I'm not in the nightclub age group, but I'd be surprised to hear they're checking rigorously. If there was a very specific check that might have a better chance.
And it needs to work, as otherwise the logical next step is simply to close them down.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab." https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Crumbs. Javid says estimated 200k omicron cases per day. 20% in England 44% in London. That is a great deal. Expected to be dominant in 48 hours. Blimey.
What 200k cases now? Or in weeks to come.....And is that total cases, or new cases per day?
The model he is working off has us going to 1million new cases per day in the next 2 weeks.
Crumbs. Javid says estimated 200k omicron cases per day. 20% in England 44% in London. That is a great deal. Expected to be dominant in 48 hours. Blimey.
The reported figures seem to be becoming a smaller fraction of the real infection number. Is this because of more asymptomatic cases with Omicron?
Dunno. May have misinterpreted what he said actually. Apologies. UKHSA estimates 200k cases a day. 20% of them omicron.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
In the US, you can walk into pretty much any pharmacy and get a booster dose. Some require appointments, others are walk up. There are websites you can use to see which of J&J/Moderna/Pfizer is being distributed at each pharmacy.
In retrospect, I should have got the J&J booster, rather than the Moderna one, but hey-hey.
No, you shouldn't have. The viral vector booster all did pretty poorly in the UK study into booster doses. J&J particularly so, it's why the whole programme is based on Pfizer and Moderna, both of those gave between a 12x and 20x boost in antibodies and a 7-10x boost in t-cell response. Viral vector vaccines were 2-4x and 1-2x respectively and from a similarly low base of waned efficacy.
AZ/AZ/Moderna had a 37x boost in antibodies and 15x boost in modelled t-cell immunity iirc.
Three Moderna doses actually nets more overall antibodies with a smaller multiplier (because of base effects) but slightly less modelled t-cell immunity and AZ/AZ/Moderna.
Pfizer/Pfizer/J&J was the worst overall efficacy. Moderna/Moderna/J&J wasn't tested.
Mix and match works best with a viral vector primer, rather than booster. No one quite knows why yet either.
There was a study out last week in the US showing that J&J as a booster to Pfizer resulted in a lower boost in antibodies short-term, but longer-lived T-cell protection. It was a small sample size, but the numbers were very persuasive:
Crumbs. Javid says estimated 200k omicron cases per day. 20% in England 44% in London. That is a great deal. Expected to be dominant in 48 hours. Blimey.
There's 200k Omicron cases per day now? That seems unlikely, but it would be great to have a real time ONS style study.
If that's the peak then I'm not sure it's a huge deal.
My error. Maybe Javid"s for not being clear. More likely mine. 200k cases estimated.
.@sajidjavid is delivering the statement. And, in a possible metaphor for her wider lack of visibility, vaccines minister Maggie Throup was absent from the start of the statement and has only just joined the front bench https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1470428885963714561
Maggie Throup? Honestly never heard that name before.
So Is it a real name and real person - or joke term for something that makes people throw up? Like seeing Grandpa Johnson fondling someone’s splendid constituency?
I thought it was quite amusing. In any case, separating out the respective impacts of Brexit and Covid is completely impossible, and therefore the question is obviously pointless.
The Saj admits not everyone can get there booster by the end of December.
Didn't his Leader PROMISE that!
Saj just repeated that the intention is for everyone to be offered a chance to get boosted this month, but that it requires them to come forward for their appointment when offered and to take up the opportunity and for things to go right.
So there's no difference between the two. Obviously if someone is offered a chance to be boosted and they turn around and say "no that date doesn't work for me" or "no I don't want it" then they're not going to get boosted. You actually need to turn up! 🙄
... yes, but if there aren't physically enough appointments available for everyone who wants one this year to have one, then...
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
854,217.
Definitely higher.
1,248,510
OK two entries makes it a competition, I will record entries until noon tomorrow and then declare on January 1st who was closest and award an appropriate prize.
NB. If @RochdalePioneers enters and is closest as at December 30th, I reserve the right to override the competition rules and award the prize to the second nearest guess.
Big: Sajid Javid tells MPs Covid passes will not be valid unless holders have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab".
How is he defining "Covid Pass"? I've had to show status or no entry. One of my two vax QR codes on a screen barely glanced at and in I went.
The major problem with vaxports is that unless there is a national standard imposed and strictly adhered to, people can show anything which makes them pointless. And the government still gets to faff about with your data and demand "your papers please"
Yes, dropping in on cafes and the like, I see prominent signs saying strictly no admittance without showing evidence, blah, blah, but staff making no effort to apply the rule. A fundamental problem is that commercial establishments have an obvious short-term interest in letting anyone in, even though one can argue that their medium-term interest is that their customers don't get ill. Add to that the risk of alienating customers by turning them away, and you can see why it's not happening. I'm not in the nightclub age group, but I'd be surprised to hear they're checking rigorously. If there was a very specific check that might have a better chance.
And it needs to work, as otherwise the logical next step is simply to close them down.
It's not the specific check that is the issue - it's how can the police / council validate that all checks have been done correctly and that no people without the appropriate covid passport are in the venue.
Until there is an easy way and answering the second question everything else is just show.
Big: Sajid Javid tells MPs Covid passes will not be valid unless holders have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab".
How is he defining "Covid Pass"? I've had to show status or no entry. One of my two vax QR codes on a screen barely glanced at and in I went.
The major problem with vaxports is that unless there is a national standard imposed and strictly adhered to, people can show anything which makes them pointless. And the government still gets to faff about with your data and demand "your papers please"
Yes, dropping in on cafes and the like, I see prominent signs saying strictly no admittance without showing evidence, blah, blah, but staff making no effort to apply the rule. A fundamental problem is that commercial establishments have an obvious short-term interest in letting anyone in, even though one can argue that their medium-term interest is that their customers don't get ill. Add to that the risk of alienating customers by turning them away, and you can see why it's not happening. I'm not in the nightclub age group, but I'd be surprised to hear they're checking rigorously. If there was a very specific check that might have a better chance.
And it needs to work, as otherwise the logical next step is simply to close them down.
Crumbs. Javid says estimated 200k omicron cases per day. 20% in England 44% in London. That is a great deal. Expected to be dominant in 48 hours. Blimey.
There's 200k Omicron cases per day now? That seems unlikely, but it would be great to have a real time ONS style study.
If that's the peak then I'm not sure it's a huge deal.
Those numbers don't make sense:
If 20% of all English cases is 200k, then that suggests one million covid cases a day. In England.
Crumbs. Javid says estimated 200k omicron cases per day. 20% in England 44% in London. That is a great deal. Expected to be dominant in 48 hours. Blimey.
There's 200k Omicron cases per day now? That seems unlikely, but it would be great to have a real time ONS style study.
If that's the peak then I'm not sure it's a huge deal.
My error. Maybe Javid"s for not being clear. More likely mine. 200k cases estimated.
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
In the US, you can walk into pretty much any pharmacy and get a booster dose. Some require appointments, others are walk up. There are websites you can use to see which of J&J/Moderna/Pfizer is being distributed at each pharmacy.
In retrospect, I should have got the J&J booster, rather than the Moderna one, but hey-hey.
No, you shouldn't have. The viral vector booster all did pretty poorly in the UK study into booster doses. J&J particularly so, it's why the whole programme is based on Pfizer and Moderna, both of those gave between a 12x and 20x boost in antibodies and a 7-10x boost in t-cell response. Viral vector vaccines were 2-4x and 1-2x respectively and from a similarly low base of waned efficacy.
AZ/AZ/Moderna had a 37x boost in antibodies and 15x boost in modelled t-cell immunity iirc.
Three Moderna doses actually nets more overall antibodies with a smaller multiplier (because of base effects) but slightly less modelled t-cell immunity and AZ/AZ/Moderna.
Pfizer/Pfizer/J&J was the worst overall efficacy. Moderna/Moderna/J&J wasn't tested.
Mix and match works best with a viral vector primer, rather than booster. No one quite knows why yet either.
There was a study out last week in the US showing that J&J as a booster to Pfizer resulted in a lower boost in antibodies short-term, but longer-lived T-cell protection. It was a small sample size, but the numbers were very persuasive:
The Saj admits not everyone can get there booster by the end of December.
Didn't his Leader PROMISE that!
Saj just repeated that the intention is for everyone to be offered a chance to get boosted this month, but that it requires them to come forward for their appointment when offered and to take up the opportunity and for things to go right.
So there's no difference between the two. Obviously if someone is offered a chance to be boosted and they turn around and say "no that date doesn't work for me" or "no I don't want it" then they're not going to get boosted. You actually need to turn up! 🙄
... yes, but if there aren't physically enough appointments available for everyone who wants one this year to have one, then...
Indeed but the intention has been confirmed that there will be enough appointments available.
Will be interesting to see if that's accomplished or not.
I recall with interest when people said the announced intention in January to jab all the first four vulnerable groups by Valentine's Day was ridiculed as unachievable - but it was achieved with a few days to spare.
Time and again the vaccination program has been set challenging targets and achieved them. I expect it'll be the same again this time, given we were already running at half a million jabs a day I see little reason that can't be stretched to over a million a day.
Crumbs. Javid says estimated 200k omicron cases per day. 20% in England 44% in London. That is a great deal. Expected to be dominant in 48 hours. Blimey.
There's 200k Omicron cases per day now? That seems unlikely, but it would be great to have a real time ONS style study.
If that's the peak then I'm not sure it's a huge deal.
Those numbers don't make sense:
If 20% of all English cases is 200k, then that suggests one million covid cases a day. In England.
Which I don't buy for a second.
With the amount we are PCR testing and the number of lateral flow tests that people are doing and not registering its hard to imagine we would be missing that many infections
"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.
And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.
While Omicron represents over 20% of cases in England, we’ve already seen it rise to over 44% in London and we expect it to become the dominant Covid 19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours."
You can see he didn't say 200k omicron. You can also see why I interpreted it as such I hope (he uses the word omicron both before and after the key stat).
Crumbs. Javid says estimated 200k omicron cases per day. 20% in England 44% in London. That is a great deal. Expected to be dominant in 48 hours. Blimey.
There's 200k Omicron cases per day now? That seems unlikely, but it would be great to have a real time ONS style study.
If that's the peak then I'm not sure it's a huge deal.
My error. Maybe Javid"s for not being clear. More likely mine. 200k cases estimated.
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
In the US, you can walk into pretty much any pharmacy and get a booster dose. Some require appointments, others are walk up. There are websites you can use to see which of J&J/Moderna/Pfizer is being distributed at each pharmacy.
In retrospect, I should have got the J&J booster, rather than the Moderna one, but hey-hey.
No, you shouldn't have. The viral vector booster all did pretty poorly in the UK study into booster doses. J&J particularly so, it's why the whole programme is based on Pfizer and Moderna, both of those gave between a 12x and 20x boost in antibodies and a 7-10x boost in t-cell response. Viral vector vaccines were 2-4x and 1-2x respectively and from a similarly low base of waned efficacy.
AZ/AZ/Moderna had a 37x boost in antibodies and 15x boost in modelled t-cell immunity iirc.
Three Moderna doses actually nets more overall antibodies with a smaller multiplier (because of base effects) but slightly less modelled t-cell immunity and AZ/AZ/Moderna.
Pfizer/Pfizer/J&J was the worst overall efficacy. Moderna/Moderna/J&J wasn't tested.
Mix and match works best with a viral vector primer, rather than booster. No one quite knows why yet either.
There was a study out last week in the US showing that J&J as a booster to Pfizer resulted in a lower boost in antibodies short-term, but longer-lived T-cell protection. It was a small sample size, but the numbers were very persuasive:
Tbh, we're all getting gen 2 doses next September/October so I'm not sure it's a huge deal.
So long as the JCVI don't decide to only offer gen 2 doses to the vulnerable groups and tell the rest of us to swivel again until they get panicked into acting. 🤬
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab." https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Very wise. But how's that going to go down with the swivel-eyed Tory brigade?
The Saj admits not everyone can get there booster by the end of December.
Didn't his Leader PROMISE that!
Saj just repeated that the intention is for everyone to be offered a chance to get boosted this month, but that it requires them to come forward for their appointment when offered and to take up the opportunity and for things to go right.
So there's no difference between the two. Obviously if someone is offered a chance to be boosted and they turn around and say "no that date doesn't work for me" or "no I don't want it" then they're not going to get boosted. You actually need to turn up! 🙄
... yes, but if there aren't physically enough appointments available for everyone who wants one this year to have one, then...
I think with walk ins there actually might be. We'll have demand of about 17m from the 20m or so eligible.
With the way this variant spreads I can believe it. The government will have access to data, surveillance and models that aren't public.
We should have a clearer picture in the next 2-3 weeks on whether immunity is holding up and that vaccines are preventing severe disease or that we are in for a rough few months.
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
854,217.
Definitely higher.
1,248,510
OK two entries makes it a competition, I will record entries until noon tomorrow and then declare on January 1st who was closest and award an appropriate prize.
NB. If @RochdalePioneers enters and is closest as at December 30th, I reserve the right to override the competition rules and award the prize to the second nearest guess.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab." https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Very wise. But how's that going to go down with the swivel-eyed Tory brigade?
I wonder what the age-related criteria are. How many 12-15yr olds have had one, two or three jabs and what will they or won't they be allowed to do.
The Saj admits not everyone can get there booster by the end of December.
Didn't his Leader PROMISE that!
Saj just repeated that the intention is for everyone to be offered a chance to get boosted this month, but that it requires them to come forward for their appointment when offered and to take up the opportunity and for things to go right.
So there's no difference between the two. Obviously if someone is offered a chance to be boosted and they turn around and say "no that date doesn't work for me" or "no I don't want it" then they're not going to get boosted. You actually need to turn up! 🙄
... yes, but if there aren't physically enough appointments available for everyone who wants one this year to have one, then...
Indeed but the intention has been confirmed that there will be enough appointments available.
Will be interesting to see if that's accomplished or not.
I recall with interest when people said the announced intention in January to jab all the first four vulnerable groups by Valentine's Day was ridiculed as unachievable - but it was achieved with a few days to spare.
Time and again the vaccination program has been set challenging targets and achieved them. I expect it'll be the same again this time, given we were already running at half a million jabs a day I see little reason that can't be stretched to over a million a day.
Fair point about the Valentine's Day target. I was a vocal sceptic myself. Yet it was achieved, as you righty say, fairly easily in the end.
.@sajidjavid is delivering the statement. And, in a possible metaphor for her wider lack of visibility, vaccines minister Maggie Throup was absent from the start of the statement and has only just joined the front bench https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1470428885963714561
Maggie Throup? Honestly never heard that name before.
Nope, neither me. But she's cutting through. Or - I suppose we have to allow for the possibility - it could be Lyin' Bo Johnson's inspirational "Get Boosted Now!" address to the nation. Big queues round my way at the Pop Ups.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab." https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Very wise. But how's that going to go down with the swivel-eyed Tory brigade?
"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.
And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.
While Omicron represents over 20% of cases in England, we’ve already seen it rise to over 44% in London and we expect it to become the dominant Covid 19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours."
You can see he didn't say 200k omicron. You can also see why I interpreted it as such I hope (he uses the word omicron both before and after the key stat).
200k cases per day would be a huge increase from the last ONS release, it would imply that ~2m people currently have COVID. While it's definitely possible, I'm not certain that it's plausible, given that we haven't seen the same kind of take off in the daily stats or in other leading indicators. We'd be picking up just 25% of new cases in the testing system, normally it hovers around 40% and I don't see why that number would have suddenly dropped.
Before the current panic - i.e. about 8 days ago - I booked my booster. First available slots were around New Year - ended up with the 5th of Jan. Is it worth trying to bring it forward? I'm double jabbed of course, not at risk, and I had covid back in October - presumably that confers a degree of protection. Happy to try to bring it forward but there must be other people who could make better use of the slot.
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
The Saj admits not everyone can get there booster by the end of December.
Didn't his Leader PROMISE that!
Saj just repeated that the intention is for everyone to be offered a chance to get boosted this month, but that it requires them to come forward for their appointment when offered and to take up the opportunity and for things to go right.
So there's no difference between the two. Obviously if someone is offered a chance to be boosted and they turn around and say "no that date doesn't work for me" or "no I don't want it" then they're not going to get boosted. You actually need to turn up! 🙄
... yes, but if there aren't physically enough appointments available for everyone who wants one this year to have one, then...
Indeed but the intention has been confirmed that there will be enough appointments available.
Will be interesting to see if that's accomplished or not.
I recall with interest when people said the announced intention in January to jab all the first four vulnerable groups by Valentine's Day was ridiculed as unachievable - but it was achieved with a few days to spare.
Time and again the vaccination program has been set challenging targets and achieved them. I expect it'll be the same again this time, given we were already running at half a million jabs a day I see little reason that can't be stretched to over a million a day.
As I said earlier, there are currently nothing like enough appointments in my area for everyone to have one this year. There aren't a lot of remaining working days to get them added, either, and plenty of people will currently be booking slots for 2022 on the basis that that's the earliest they can get right now.
WRT the BiB: 1) Because we still need to do twice as well as the epic effort we mounted earlier this year 2) Because we are primarily delivering the boosters via pharmacies (at least as far as I can tell) , not massive dedicated vaccination centres 3) Because it's nearly Christmas and the people we're relying on to deliver the shots have other priorities 4) Because we're not in lockdown anymore so the people we're relying on to deliver the shots aren't always available (or have to focus on their day jobs) 5) Supply issues due to the lack of delivery drivers 6) Because Zahawi isn't in charge any more 7) Because all the volunteers who helped out earlier with jabs #1 and #2 have gone off to do other things
The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.
Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".
Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.
Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.
The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?
The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.
That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates
Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.
A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.
However 6 months out...
At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
Indeed. If the report about removing the 15 minute waiting time is true it could, according to the consultant cousin who tipped me off on Saturday to book a booster appointment, triple throughput of doses administered, maybe even quadruple at smaller pharmacies and community centres that don't have a large waiting area. That, IMO, is where the big increase in doses will come from.
In the US, you can walk into pretty much any pharmacy and get a booster dose. Some require appointments, others are walk up. There are websites you can use to see which of J&J/Moderna/Pfizer is being distributed at each pharmacy.
In retrospect, I should have got the J&J booster, rather than the Moderna one, but hey-hey.
No, you shouldn't have. The viral vector booster all did pretty poorly in the UK study into booster doses. J&J particularly so, it's why the whole programme is based on Pfizer and Moderna, both of those gave between a 12x and 20x boost in antibodies and a 7-10x boost in t-cell response. Viral vector vaccines were 2-4x and 1-2x respectively and from a similarly low base of waned efficacy.
AZ/AZ/Moderna had a 37x boost in antibodies and 15x boost in modelled t-cell immunity iirc.
Three Moderna doses actually nets more overall antibodies with a smaller multiplier (because of base effects) but slightly less modelled t-cell immunity and AZ/AZ/Moderna.
Pfizer/Pfizer/J&J was the worst overall efficacy. Moderna/Moderna/J&J wasn't tested.
Mix and match works best with a viral vector primer, rather than booster. No one quite knows why yet either.
There was a study out last week in the US showing that J&J as a booster to Pfizer resulted in a lower boost in antibodies short-term, but longer-lived T-cell protection. It was a small sample size, but the numbers were very persuasive:
Before the current panic - i.e. about 8 days ago - I booked my booster. First available slots were around New Year - ended up with the 5th of Jan. Is it worth trying to bring it forward? I'm double jabbed of course, not at risk, and I had covid back in October - presumably that confers a degree of protection. Happy to try to bring it forward but there must be other people who could make better use of the slot.
Yeah you should. My mate just messaged into WhatsApp that he's got a positive lateral flow result so has a PCR booked. Annoyingly it's two days until his booster appointment.
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
Before the current panic - i.e. about 8 days ago - I booked my booster. First available slots were around New Year - ended up with the 5th of Jan. Is it worth trying to bring it forward? I'm double jabbed of course, not at risk, and I had covid back in October - presumably that confers a degree of protection. Happy to try to bring it forward but there must be other people who could make better use of the slot.
From memory you can 'peak' at the available slots before you cancel your own, so if there's no better slots then you can stick with your existing one but if a sooner one is available then you can safely grab it.
Given that we're going to be having about a million jabs a day done I wouldn't worry about taking a slot. The sooner everyone is done the better. The vulnerable have had a months-long head start to get theirs booked now, so now its about mopping up everyone else.
"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.
And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.
While Omicron represents over 20% of cases in England, we’ve already seen it rise to over 44% in London and we expect it to become the dominant Covid 19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours."
You can see he didn't say 200k omicron. You can also see why I interpreted it as such I hope (he uses the word omicron both before and after the key stat).
200k cases per day would be a huge increase from the last ONS release, it would imply that ~2m people currently have COVID. While it's definitely possible, I'm not certain that it's plausible, given that we haven't seen the same kind of take off in the daily stats or in other leading indicators. We'd be picking up just 25% of new cases in the testing system, normally it hovers around 40% and I don't see why that number would have suddenly dropped.
One possible reason for it dropping would be if a growing fraction of people are unwilling to self-isolate, and so are refusing to volunteer for testing, but I don't have much sense of that being widespread, despite one poster stating that's now their attitude.
Before the current panic - i.e. about 8 days ago - I booked my booster. First available slots were around New Year - ended up with the 5th of Jan. Is it worth trying to bring it forward? I'm double jabbed of course, not at risk, and I had covid back in October - presumably that confers a degree of protection. Happy to try to bring it forward but there must be other people who could make better use of the slot.
Doubt there are any earlier dates available.
Remember just because Boris promised something, doesn't mean it will actually occur (see for past examples HS2E, Northern Power Rail, Levelling Up)..
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab." https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Very wise. But how's that going to go down with the swivel-eyed Tory brigade?
Better than another lockdown would
I'd gently suggest it won't be perceived as either swivel-eyed Tories or lockdown-sceptics in general as an either-or.
Have we done the 7 point Lab lead with Survation today?
Since the 8th Boris Conservatives have been on 32 in 3/4 polls. I have Mori as the outlier as some of their fieldwork began on the third, the No rules were broken BSing was not cutting through back then.
Libdems going backwards though as Conservatives in free fall ☹️
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
It depends on the boosters. If most of the adult population have had their boosters by mid January and we avoid another lockdown Boris will get a bounce.
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
I think HYUFD is still loyal. What happened to you though? You were PB's No1 Johnson Fanboy until a few days ago before the wind changed. Apparently you still think he is one of the *best* PMs, but now paradoxically think he should be ousted? Why do you want to oust someone that you think is good?
The Saj admits not everyone can get there booster by the end of December.
Didn't his Leader PROMISE that!
Saj just repeated that the intention is for everyone to be offered a chance to get boosted this month, but that it requires them to come forward for their appointment when offered and to take up the opportunity and for things to go right.
So there's no difference between the two. Obviously if someone is offered a chance to be boosted and they turn around and say "no that date doesn't work for me" or "no I don't want it" then they're not going to get boosted. You actually need to turn up! 🙄
... yes, but if there aren't physically enough appointments available for everyone who wants one this year to have one, then...
Indeed but the intention has been confirmed that there will be enough appointments available.
Will be interesting to see if that's accomplished or not.
I recall with interest when people said the announced intention in January to jab all the first four vulnerable groups by Valentine's Day was ridiculed as unachievable - but it was achieved with a few days to spare.
Time and again the vaccination program has been set challenging targets and achieved them. I expect it'll be the same again this time, given we were already running at half a million jabs a day I see little reason that can't be stretched to over a million a day.
As I said earlier, there are currently nothing like enough appointments in my area for everyone to have one this year. There aren't a lot of remaining working days to get them added, either, and plenty of people will currently be booking slots for 2022 on the basis that that's the earliest they can get right now.
WRT the BiB: 1) Because we still need to do twice as well as the epic effort we mounted earlier this year 2) Because we are primarily delivering the boosters via pharmacies (at least as far as I can tell) , not massive dedicated vaccination centres 3) Because it's nearly Christmas and the people we're relying on to deliver the shots have other priorities 4) Because we're not in lockdown anymore so the people we're relying on to deliver the shots aren't always available (or have to focus on their day jobs) 5) Supply issues due to the lack of delivery drivers 6) Because Zahawi isn't in charge any more 7) Because all the volunteers who helped out earlier with jabs #1 and #2 have gone off to do other things
All true.
Johnson's promise could end up looking pretty foolish. Wes Streeting sounds spot on with his "impossible but we applaud the ambition" assessment.
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
It depends on the boosters. If most of the adult population have had their boosters by mid January and we avoid another lockdown Boris will get a bounce.
Based on what I am seeing and feeling around the bits of the economy I interact with, it does feel like there are a lot of infections out there which weren't before.
200k a day already is a truly alarming figure. We know just how sodding infectious is, and we know that it does a good job of running around the back of the vaccines (hence the terrible urgency to get a 3rd dose into everyone).
In reality if we're already at 200k then the booster programme has failed before it started. I am not saying that in criticism, this thing has exploded out of nowhere.
So Plan B like a Rishi budget update last spring feels like it will be replaced very quickly. I have predicted we limp through Christmas and lockdown before we get to New Year. I now wonder if we will make it that far. Cancelling Christmas again with be the apocalypseofuck for the government. They honestly may not have a choice.
Comments
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2019-05/pm_-_tables.pdf
That's probably a bit high. There will be around 15-20,000 deaths from influenza this year, with 80% of them being between November and March. Even if they were equally spread, that would only be 100-125/day.
In retrospect, I should have got the J&J booster, rather than the Moderna one, but hey-hey.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1470428885963714561
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1470428102744498182?s=20
(That is not a binary number!)
I think Christmas will have the effect of making the figures more lumpy, and produce a small number of humdinger days.
Honestly never heard that name before.
Looks like some fun with the data... but here is what we have...
[Lumpiness in the final week of the year]
My offering!
AZ/AZ/Moderna had a 37x boost in antibodies and 15x boost in modelled t-cell immunity iirc.
Three Moderna doses actually nets more overall antibodies with a smaller multiplier (because of base effects) but slightly less modelled t-cell immunity and AZ/AZ/Moderna.
Pfizer/Pfizer/J&J was the worst overall efficacy. Moderna/Moderna/J&J wasn't tested.
Mix and match works best with a viral vector primer, rather than booster. No one quite knows why yet either.
A former biomedical scientist. You'd think she be better with vaccines. As a couple of us reported the other day she went on Question Time a week or so ago and had a DREADFUL time.
https://freedomhouse.org/country/hungary/freedom-world/2021
The major problem with vaxports is that unless there is a national standard imposed and strictly adhered to, people can show anything which makes them pointless. And the government still gets to faff about with your data and demand "your papers please"
That is a great deal.
Expected to be dominant in 48 hours. Blimey.
I’m mean if Moggy right and NHS got the £350M a week Brexit dividend in 2018, we’ve probably all had our booster jabs already without knowing 😀
- Cases are are flattish overall, still rising fast in some areas. But no sign of going ballistic. yet
- Admissions. There is missing data.
- Deaths. Flat
If that's the peak then I'm not sure it's a huge deal.
No surprise there then.
Why is this so difficult if these passes are so important?
So there's no difference between the two. Obviously if someone is offered a chance to be boosted and they turn around and say "no that date doesn't work for me" or "no I don't want it" then they're not going to get boosted. You actually need to turn up! 🙄
And it needs to work, as otherwise the logical next step is simply to close them down.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
The model he is working off has us going to 1million new cases per day in the next 2 weeks.
UKHSA estimates 200k cases a day. 20% of them omicron.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.02.21267198v1
Maybe Javid"s for not being clear. More likely mine. 200k cases estimated.
Until there is an easy way and answering the second question everything else is just show.
If 20% of all English cases is 200k, then that suggests one million covid cases a day. In England.
Which I don't buy for a second.
Will be interesting to see if that's accomplished or not.
I recall with interest when people said the announced intention in January to jab all the first four vulnerable groups by Valentine's Day was ridiculed as unachievable - but it was achieved with a few days to spare.
Time and again the vaccination program has been set challenging targets and achieved them. I expect it'll be the same again this time, given we were already running at half a million jabs a day I see little reason that can't be stretched to over a million a day.
"There are now 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in the UK.
And the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.
While Omicron represents over 20% of cases in England, we’ve already seen it rise to over 44% in London and we expect it to become the dominant Covid 19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours."
You can see he didn't say 200k omicron.
You can also see why I interpreted it as such I hope (he uses the word omicron both before and after the key stat).
We should have a clearer picture in the next 2-3 weeks on whether immunity is holding up and that vaccines are preventing severe disease or that we are in for a rough few months.
What is the status now?
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
WRT the BiB:
1) Because we still need to do twice as well as the epic effort we mounted earlier this year
2) Because we are primarily delivering the boosters via pharmacies (at least as far as I can tell) , not massive dedicated vaccination centres
3) Because it's nearly Christmas and the people we're relying on to deliver the shots have other priorities
4) Because we're not in lockdown anymore so the people we're relying on to deliver the shots aren't always available (or have to focus on their day jobs)
5) Supply issues due to the lack of delivery drivers
6) Because Zahawi isn't in charge any more
7) Because all the volunteers who helped out earlier with jabs #1 and #2 have gone off to do other things
Happy with my AZ/AZ/Pfizer but would have been equally happy with any other combination of 2+booster.
Given that we're going to be having about a million jabs a day done I wouldn't worry about taking a slot. The sooner everyone is done the better. The vulnerable have had a months-long head start to get theirs booked now, so now its about mopping up everyone else.
Remember just because Boris promised something, doesn't mean it will actually occur (see for past examples HS2E, Northern Power Rail, Levelling Up)..
Reform up from 5% to 7%
Libdems going backwards though as Conservatives in free fall ☹️
LAB: 37% (-1)
CON: 32% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (-)
GRN: 7% (+1)
REFUK: 7% (+2)
via @RedfieldWilton, 13 Dec
Chgs. w/ 08 Dec
https://www.newstatesman.com/the-latest-polls-britain-elects
If not hard to see him recovering
Johnson's promise could end up looking pretty foolish. Wes Streeting sounds spot on with his "impossible but we applaud the ambition" assessment.
200k a day already is a truly alarming figure. We know just how sodding infectious is, and we know that it does a good job of running around the back of the vaccines (hence the terrible urgency to get a 3rd dose into everyone).
In reality if we're already at 200k then the booster programme has failed before it started. I am not saying that in criticism, this thing has exploded out of nowhere.
So Plan B like a Rishi budget update last spring feels like it will be replaced very quickly. I have predicted we limp through Christmas and lockdown before we get to New Year. I now wonder if we will make it that far. Cancelling Christmas again with be the apocalypseofuck for the government. They honestly may not have a choice.
Bugger