In the right circumstances dull people can make ideal PM's. We're just used to very charismatic types these days and it may be that the times have changed so much that we can't cope without a song and dance man tripping the light fantastic.
Frothy PM's of my lifetime: Tony Blair, Boris Johnson
Serious and dull PM's of my lifetime: Jim Callaghan, John Major, Gordon Brown, Theresa May, Harold Wilson (to an extent), Margaret Thatcher, Ted Heath
Nowhere to place: David Cameron. Frothy on substance, serious in style. Quite the combo!
Our politics has become rather degraded - as have we - if the necessary attributes for being PM are now the same as for winning Celebrity Big Brother.
Quite!
I think that gets to what I was saying, only rather better in your case.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as boosters, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
It was being done in a planned way, it was already available to 30-somethings.
Err, yes. A badly planned way.
How was it badly planned? The vulnerable were already done. No other comparable nation even comes close. All despite the JCVIs prevarication.
You're being petulant.
Couple of examples - hope they're petulant enough:
- Despite the JVCI taking a contrarian view against international best practice causing months of delay to the decision to vaccinate 12-15 year-olds, the rollout still wasn't ready to go when finally approved, meaning that only a minority had been vaccinated by October half-term. I'm not sure that "no other comparable" nation has done this as badly, but a lot have done it better. And there's still no plan for the second vaccination in the course for this group, or for vaccination certification for them. Large numbers of infections during the past term could have been reduced, which would have helped to control case numbers in the wider community as well as protecting teenagers from the medical risks of covid and from missing out on education. As the parent of a teenager, this doesn't feel like great planning.
- From Johnson's last "I need to move the news agenda on" announcement of expanding the availability of boosters to actual implementation was around three weeks even to amend booking criteria to take account of reducing the intra-dose time from 6 months to 5 months then to 3 months. During this period the vaccination booking website said essentially "plans to do the stuff the PM announced are coming soon, check back later". Announcing something which there seems to be no plan to implement and then scrambling to do it doesn't feel like great planning.
On the first point prevarication over the young lies squarely with the JCVI.
On the second you're being entirely unreasonable. The boosters were expanded but they explicitly said they would stick with the priority regimen. So yes as a thirty nine year old my eligibility was only accepted on the weekend but that wasn't because they had no plan to implement ... It is because they quite rightly stuck with the plan of jabbing those who were older and vulnerable first.
It makes no sense to be vaccinating not vulnerable 39 year olds before all 49 or 59 year olds have been done first. That's sticking with the plan and if you look at the by age breakdown chart @CarlottaVance shared earlier it's worked.
Not only has the UK done double the booster jabs that any other comparable nation, but they've gone to the right people.
I deliberately didn't blame the government for the JCVI's prevarication (though I think they could have done more to address that). My point was that event with the delay the programme wasn't ready to go - less justifiable than it would have been if the approval had come quickly.
On the second, I'm not questioning the priority. As a 40-something 5 months past my 2nd dose, the implication of the last round of booster announcements was that I was eligible for a booster immediately (I can't remember the exact phrasing, but it was clear enough that I was checking for changes in the booking policy daily). A change to the plan was announced and it took several weeks to implement it. I'm sure you're right about your treatment as a 39 year old, but to pick your phrase I counted as "old and vulnerable" but couldn't get a booster for a few weeks in line with announced policy.
In case this sounds a bit grumpy, I also caught covid while waiting for that booster and haven't really had a great week as a result.
I have some well-connected and prestigious friends who had lunch with Keir recently.
They left impressed by his tenacity on the internal clean-up job after Corbyn’s disastrous tenure (apparently something of personal mission given Keir’s family circumstances), but not at all convinced he has yet figured out a vision, let alone one he can sell to middle Britain.
Oh, and apparently Keir and Sir Ed are in regular contact. The tacit alliance is live and kicking.
You see the mistake you made their is turning on sky news....i did this morning and nearly broke it wirh Kay Burley spouting antivaxxers nonsense.
You need to think!
200,000 Omicron infections a day would put it far in excess of the number of Delta infections, not at 20%.
That isnt what is becoming said. Its 200k (all covid) infections.
That is NOT what Sky News are reporting.
As I said, they are reporting that he said there are 200,000 Omicron infections per day now.
200,000 Omicron infections a day = (per Javid) 1m Covid infections.
Has the engine just cut out on the doodlebug and we're waiting for impact.
Yes it's complete nonsense but go onto the Sky News website and that is still what they are saying. https://news.sky.com/
Which is why I queried it on here as soon as I saw it. Unfortunately Francis seems to think it was me making the statement in the House of Commons.
Francis needs to think!
FFS , no I didn't. I said the stat being reported is nonsense.
Francis you need to think!
Oh yes indeedy.
Can we just get this fucking clear, I did not say anything about another poster. i said the stat as being reported can't be true that is all and it looks like Javid wasn't 100% crystal clear in his statement to the house and the media haven't thought about what 200k and 20% would refer to.
There is absolutely no way there are 200k new omicron infections per day when they make up 20% of total cases....not when official stats are 50-60k cases and 1500.omicron. that would mean 1 million total covid cases, which is obviously bollocks.
Its estimated 200k new (all variant) cases per day, of which 20% are omicron, based off an iffy model.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
More specifically, the MPs always knew of his significant potential weaknesses - but perhaps hoped that he’d mature in the job rather more than he has done. But now these weaknesses are on show for everyone to see, on top of which the reason he was appointed - his election winning magic - is draining away.
It’s gone Ian. Before they pulled the plug on Boris after his awful conference speech his own party already knew this.
A challenge to anyone on here who thinks Boris can win the next general election, what is the basket of ideas currently driving his government, building next election win, that sit under the heading Borism?
Last election platform was 1) end to Tory austerity 2) get Brexit done 3) keep Corbyn out.
What wins the next election for him? Believing he will deliver Levelling Up?
What is Borism?
The pitch could be three things. 1. Keep Brexit Safe (from the Remainer-in-Chief, Sir Keir Starmer) 2. Keep Taxes Low (after the pre-election income tax) 3. Keep Levelling Up (look at the money your Tory MP - and Rishi - spent on your town)
You see the mistake you made their is turning on sky news....i did this morning and nearly broke it wirh Kay Burley spouting antivaxxers nonsense.
You need to think!
200,000 Omicron infections a day would put it far in excess of the number of Delta infections, not at 20%.
That isnt what is becoming said. Its 200k (all covid) infections.
That is NOT what Sky News are reporting.
As I said, they are reporting that he said there are 200,000 Omicron infections per day now.
200,000 Omicron infections a day = (per Javid) 1m Covid infections.
Has the engine just cut out on the doodlebug and we're waiting for impact.
Yes it's complete nonsense but go onto the Sky News website and that is still what they are saying. https://news.sky.com/
Which is why I queried it on here as soon as I saw it. Unfortunately Francis seems to think it was me making the statement in the House of Commons.
Francis needs to think!
FFS , no I didn't. I said the stat being reported is nonsense.
Francis you need to think!
Oh yes indeedy.
Can we just get this fucking clear, I did not say anything about another poster. i said the stat as being reported can't be true that is all and it looks like Javid wasn't 100% crystal clear in his statement to the house and the media haven't thought about what 200k and 20% would refer to.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
More specifically, the MPs always knew of his significant potential weaknesses - but perhaps hoped that he’d mature in the job rather more than he has done. But now these weaknesses are on show for everyone to see, on top of which the reason he was appointed - his election winning magic - is draining away.
It’s gone Ian. Before they pulled the plug on Boris after his awful conference speech his own party already knew this.
A challenge to anyone on here who thinks Boris can win the next general election, what is the basket of ideas currently driving his government building next election win that sit under the heading Borism?
Last election platform was 1) end to Tory austerity 2) get Brexit done 3) keep Corbyn out.
What wins the next election for him? Believing he will deliver Levelling Up?
What is Borism?
And what is Starmerism?
Seriously. What would a Starmer Govt look like?
RW Tory voters not only voted for Brexit but also because they were sick and tired of the Labour Party seeing them as a bunch of gammon racists with outmoded views, and whom they despised. Despite Starmer’s attempts, I don’t see any change in that view. The idea that Yvette Cooper handling immigration will soothe voter fears is a laugh.
The Tories have a leadership issue. BJ may or may not get out of this (he knows his History - he will have plenty of historical examples of how to do a u-turn) but, if he doesn’t, the Tories get someone else and off they go.
Labour have a fundamental strategic problem. That is far harder to solve.
I have been away from PB for a few days while packing.
Are you going somewhere nice?
New York, Covid willing.
Arrive New Year’s Eve. I gloomily half-expect to land on the threshold of another lockdown. The censoriousness of New York seems to be quite different from licentious London.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
More specifically, the MPs always knew of his significant potential weaknesses - but perhaps hoped that he’d mature in the job rather more than he has done. But now these weaknesses are on show for everyone to see, on top of which the reason he was appointed - his election winning magic - is draining away.
It’s gone Ian. Before they pulled the plug on Boris after his awful conference speech his own party already knew this.
A challenge to anyone on here who thinks Boris can win the next general election, what is the basket of ideas currently driving his government, building next election win, that sit under the heading Borism?
Last election platform was 1) end to Tory austerity 2) get Brexit done 3) keep Corbyn out.
What wins the next election for him? Believing he will deliver Levelling Up?
What is Borism?
What a downer of a post. I can tell you have never been to Peppa Pig World.
😀 you are very funny sir.
I’m off to watch more Vintage Emmerdale Farm now. It’s my latest most favourite show.
You see the mistake you made their is turning on sky news....i did this morning and nearly broke it wirh Kay Burley spouting antivaxxers nonsense.
You need to think!
200,000 Omicron infections a day would put it far in excess of the number of Delta infections, not at 20%.
That isnt what is becoming said. Its 200k (all covid) infections.
That is NOT what Sky News are reporting.
As I said, they are reporting that he said there are 200,000 Omicron infections per day now.
200,000 Omicron infections a day = (per Javid) 1m Covid infections.
Has the engine just cut out on the doodlebug and we're waiting for impact.
Yes it's complete nonsense but go onto the Sky News website and that is still what they are saying. https://news.sky.com/
Which is why I queried it on here as soon as I saw it. Unfortunately Francis seems to think it was me making the statement in the House of Commons.
Francis needs to think!
FFS , no I didn't. I said the stat being reported is nonsense.
Francis you need to think!
Oh yes indeedy.
Can we just get this fucking clear, I did not say anything about another poster. i said the stat as being reported can't be true that is all and it looks like Javid wasn't 100% crystal clear in his statement to the house and the media haven't thought about what 200k and 20% would refer to.
There is absolutely no way there are 200k new omicron infections per day when they make up 20% of total cases....not when official stats are 50-60k cases and 1500.omicron. that would mean 1 million total covid cases, which is obviously bollocks.
Its 200k new (all variant) cases per day, of which 20% are omicron, based of an iffy model.
If Starmer wins the next election within a year Boris will do a Trump and say 'miss me yet', as Trump now does after his loss last year to Biden
If he throws away an 80-seat majority at the next election, do you imagine the Conservative Party being inclined to give Boris Johnson another go in 2029?
The Conservative party would never have made Boris PM. The current lot might be coloured blue and wrap themselves in the flag, but Conservatives they are not.
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
The UK has already boosted the vulnerable and France is playing catchup from a much worse position. For the nth time running, you are making a fallacious argument.
France is playing catch up. But they are also catching up. They (and most Western European countries) are about three to five weeks behind, and on basically the same curve.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as boosters, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
It was being done in a planned way, it was already available to 30-somethings.
Err, yes. A badly planned way.
How was it badly planned? The vulnerable were already done. No other comparable nation even comes close. All despite the JCVIs prevarication.
You're being petulant.
Couple of examples - hope they're petulant enough:
- Despite the JVCI taking a contrarian view against international best practice causing months of delay to the decision to vaccinate 12-15 year-olds, the rollout still wasn't ready to go when finally approved, meaning that only a minority had been vaccinated by October half-term. I'm not sure that "no other comparable" nation has done this as badly, but a lot have done it better. And there's still no plan for the second vaccination in the course for this group, or for vaccination certification for them. Large numbers of infections during the past term could have been reduced, which would have helped to control case numbers in the wider community as well as protecting teenagers from the medical risks of covid and from missing out on education. As the parent of a teenager, this doesn't feel like great planning.
- From Johnson's last "I need to move the news agenda on" announcement of expanding the availability of boosters to actual implementation was around three weeks even to amend booking criteria to take account of reducing the intra-dose time from 6 months to 5 months then to 3 months. During this period the vaccination booking website said essentially "plans to do the stuff the PM announced are coming soon, check back later". Announcing something which there seems to be no plan to implement and then scrambling to do it doesn't feel like great planning.
On the first point prevarication over the young lies squarely with the JCVI.
Did someone elect the JCVI to government. It's the govt's responsibility. They can do what they want. They are advised by scientists and the JCVI but they make the decisions.
Unless you are saying they are pathetic indecisive idiots.
I understand that sympathy for the Government is in very short supply nowadays, but nevertheless when it comes to these sorts of decisions they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. If ministers shove the JCVI to one side when they're still prevaricating over jabs for kids, all that will happen is that sections of the public and the press (including the anti-vaxxer menace) will gleefully accuse them of gambling with children's lives. Just as they're accused of recklessness whenever they're suspected of not imposing Covid restrictions that are as tough as the scientists want.
If Starmer wins the next election within a year Boris will do a Trump and say 'miss me yet', as Trump now does after his loss last year to Biden
If he throws away an 80-seat majority at the next election, do you imagine the Conservative Party being inclined to give Boris Johnson another go in 2029?
The Conservative party would never have made Boris PM. The current lot might be coloured blue and wrap themselves in the flag, but Conservatives they are not.
The word you are searching for, Beibheirli, also starts with “C”, however it is before the watershed.
Unlike others, I believe @HYUFD represents the unacceptable face of pure, undiluted Tory-ism.
In the right circumstances dull people can make ideal PM's. We're just used to very charismatic types these days and it may be that the times have changed so much that we can't cope without a song and dance man tripping the light fantastic.
Frothy PM's of my lifetime: Tony Blair, Boris Johnson
Serious and dull PM's of my lifetime: Jim Callaghan, John Major, Gordon Brown, Theresa May, Harold Wilson (to an extent), Margaret Thatcher, Ted Heath
Nowhere to place: David Cameron. Frothy on substance, serious in style. Quite the combo!
Thatcher was charismatic, she was certainly not dull.
Possibly and I know what you mean but she famously had no sense of humour. She wasn't frothy or light-hearted by any stretch. A very serious person.
Perhaps she should be put in a category all of her own. You probably know that I rate her the greatest PM of my lifetime, even though I profoundly disagree with much of what she stood for.
"frothy or light-hearted" - What on earth makes you think we want to be governed by Noel fcking Coward? She probably had no natural sense of rhythm either, and dreadful taste in soft furnishings.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
More specifically, the MPs always knew of his significant potential weaknesses - but perhaps hoped that he’d mature in the job rather more than he has done. But now these weaknesses are on show for everyone to see, on top of which the reason he was appointed - his election winning magic - is draining away.
It’s gone Ian. Before they pulled the plug on Boris after his awful conference speech his own party already knew this.
A challenge to anyone on here who thinks Boris can win the next general election, what is the basket of ideas currently driving his government building next election win that sit under the heading Borism?
Last election platform was 1) end to Tory austerity 2) get Brexit done 3) keep Corbyn out.
What wins the next election for him? Believing he will deliver Levelling Up?
What is Borism?
And what is Starmerism?
Seriously. What would a Starmer Govt look like?
RW Tory voters not only voted for Brexit but also because they were sick and tired of the Labour Party seeing them as a bunch of gammon racists with outmoded views, and whom they despised. Despite Starmer’s attempts, I don’t see any change in that view. The idea that Yvette Cooper handling immigration will soothe voter fears is a laugh.
The Tories have a leadership issue. BJ may or may not get out of this (he knows his History - he will have plenty of historical examples of how to do a u-turn) but, if he doesn’t, the Tories get someone else and off they go.
Labour have a fundamental strategic problem. That is far harder to solve.
Fundamental strategic problem ... they can't win unless they go a bit racist?
I have been away from PB for a few days while packing.
Are you going somewhere nice?
New York, Covid willing.
Arrive New Year’s Eve. I gloomily half-expect to land on the threshold of another lockdown. The censoriousness of New York seems to be quite different from licentious London.
Have fun. I have never been there myself, but people I know who have been there seemed to like it
In the right circumstances dull people can make ideal PM's. We're just used to very charismatic types these days and it may be that the times have changed so much that we can't cope without a song and dance man tripping the light fantastic.
Frothy PM's of my lifetime: Tony Blair, Boris Johnson
Serious and dull PM's of my lifetime: Jim Callaghan, John Major, Gordon Brown, Theresa May, Harold Wilson (to an extent), Margaret Thatcher, Ted Heath
Nowhere to place: David Cameron. Frothy on substance, serious in style. Quite the combo!
Our politics has become rather degraded - as have we - if the necessary attributes for being PM are now the same as for winning Celebrity Big Brother.
Quite!
I think that gets to what I was saying, only rather better in your case.
You see the mistake you made their is turning on sky news....i did this morning and nearly broke it wirh Kay Burley spouting antivaxxers nonsense.
You need to think!
200,000 Omicron infections a day would put it far in excess of the number of Delta infections, not at 20%.
That isnt what is becoming said. Its 200k (all covid) infections.
That is NOT what Sky News are reporting.
As I said, they are reporting that he said there are 200,000 Omicron infections per day now.
200,000 Omicron infections a day = (per Javid) 1m Covid infections.
Has the engine just cut out on the doodlebug and we're waiting for impact.
Yes it's complete nonsense but go onto the Sky News website and that is still what they are saying. https://news.sky.com/
Which is why I queried it on here as soon as I saw it. Unfortunately Francis seems to think it was me making the statement in the House of Commons.
Francis needs to think!
FFS , no I didn't. I said the stat being reported is nonsense.
Francis you need to think!
Oh yes indeedy.
Can we just get this fucking clear, I did not say anything about another poster. i said the stat as being reported can't be true that is all and it looks like Javid wasn't 100% crystal clear in his statement to the house and the media haven't thought about what 200k and 20% would refer to.
There is absolutely no way there are 200k new omicron infections per day when they make up 20% of total cases....not when official stats are 50-60k cases and 1500.omicron. that would mean 1 million total covid cases, which is obviously bollocks.
Its estimated 200k new (all variant) cases per day, of which 20% are omicron, based off an iffy model.
I hesitate to enter the fray, but it is feasible that 1 million (1 in 70 approx) currently have Covid of one sort or another isn't it? If so it shows haw impressively low the hospitalisation figures are.
I have been away from PB for a few days while packing.
Are you going somewhere nice?
New York, Covid willing.
Arrive New Year’s Eve. I gloomily half-expect to land on the threshold of another lockdown. The censoriousness of New York seems to be quite different from licentious London.
Have fun. I have never been there myself, but people I know who have been there seemed to like it
It is of course a fantastic city.
I’m largely doing it so the family can have an adventure and I can earn a bit more money.
Plus, I’ve no pretensions to being American so I’ll be less personally affronted by Trumpery than I have been by Brexit.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
More specifically, the MPs always knew of his significant potential weaknesses - but perhaps hoped that he’d mature in the job rather more than he has done. But now these weaknesses are on show for everyone to see, on top of which the reason he was appointed - his election winning magic - is draining away.
It’s gone Ian. Before they pulled the plug on Boris after his awful conference speech his own party already knew this.
A challenge to anyone on here who thinks Boris can win the next general election, what is the basket of ideas currently driving his government building next election win that sit under the heading Borism?
Last election platform was 1) end to Tory austerity 2) get Brexit done 3) keep Corbyn out.
What wins the next election for him? Believing he will deliver Levelling Up?
What is Borism?
And what is Starmerism?
Seriously. What would a Starmer Govt look like?
RW Tory voters not only voted for Brexit but also because they were sick and tired of the Labour Party seeing them as a bunch of gammon racists with outmoded views, and whom they despised. Despite Starmer’s attempts, I don’t see any change in that view. The idea that Yvette Cooper handling immigration will soothe voter fears is a laugh.
The Tories have a leadership issue. BJ may or may not get out of this (he knows his History - he will have plenty of historical examples of how to do a u-turn) but, if he doesn’t, the Tories get someone else and off they go.
Labour have a fundamental strategic problem. That is far harder to solve.
Back in September, Starmer wrote a 35-page document on his vision for Labour, and how he'll send it to the centre ground. And that's the problem. 35 effing pages. 14,000 words.
You see the mistake you made their is turning on sky news....i did this morning and nearly broke it wirh Kay Burley spouting antivaxxers nonsense.
You need to think!
200,000 Omicron infections a day would put it far in excess of the number of Delta infections, not at 20%.
That isnt what is becoming said. Its 200k (all covid) infections.
That is NOT what Sky News are reporting.
As I said, they are reporting that he said there are 200,000 Omicron infections per day now.
200,000 Omicron infections a day = (per Javid) 1m Covid infections.
Has the engine just cut out on the doodlebug and we're waiting for impact.
Yes it's complete nonsense but go onto the Sky News website and that is still what they are saying. https://news.sky.com/
Which is why I queried it on here as soon as I saw it. Unfortunately Francis seems to think it was me making the statement in the House of Commons.
Francis needs to think!
FFS , no I didn't. I said the stat being reported is nonsense.
Francis you need to think!
Oh yes indeedy.
Can we just get this fucking clear, I did not say anything about another poster. i said the stat as being reported can't be true that is all and it looks like Javid wasn't 100% crystal clear in his statement to the house and the media haven't thought about what 200k and 20% would refer to.
There is absolutely no way there are 200k new omicron infections per day when they make up 20% of total cases....not when official stats are 50-60k cases and 1500.omicron. that would mean 1 million total covid cases, which is obviously bollocks.
Its estimated 200k new (all variant) cases per day, of which 20% are omicron, based off an iffy model.
I hesitate to enter the fray, but it is feasible that 1 million (1 in 70 approx) currently have Covid of one sort or another isn't it? If so it shows haw impressively low the hospitalisation figures are.
Well i can only go off his word of daily infections....he may have misspoke, but 200k new infections a day seems logical, 200k cases of omicron seems i was say too high, given even epicentre, Tim Spector was saying now hit about 4k cases per day of Omicron in London.
If Starmer wins the next election within a year Boris will do a Trump and say 'miss me yet', as Trump now does after his loss last year to Biden
If he throws away an 80-seat majority at the next election, do you imagine the Conservative Party being inclined to give Boris Johnson another go in 2029?
Trump now leads a number of polls v Biden for 2024.
Churchill lost heavily in 1945 but came back to win another term as PM in 1951. Berlusconi lost and won again multiple times in Italy.
It was of course Boris who won that 80 seat majority in the first place, stranger things have happened
Wilson lost a near-100 majority in 1970 to Heath yet came back to win two further elections.
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
The UK has already boosted the vulnerable and France is playing catchup from a much worse position. For the nth time running, you are making a fallacious argument.
You are the one making a fallacious point. When did I ever say that France was in a much better position than us?
I don't know about you, but personally I am capable of understanding four separate points simultaneously:
1. We started jabbing earlier than France, and started boosting earlier (although of course we needed to start boosting earlier, because our earlier start on the first two jabs meant we were getting into the vaccine effectiveness waning earlier). 2. However, we squandered much of that advantage, in that we haven't completed the programme before midwinter, when we could have done. 3. It's now a race against time to get more boosters into arms, made much worse by Omicron. 4. Currently, France's rate of getting boosters into arms is much higher than ours, showing that it can be done.
Four whole points. I know it's hard, but if you really, really try you might manage it.
In the right circumstances dull people can make ideal PM's. We're just used to very charismatic types these days and it may be that the times have changed so much that we can't cope without a song and dance man tripping the light fantastic.
Frothy PM's of my lifetime: Tony Blair, Boris Johnson
Serious and dull PM's of my lifetime: Jim Callaghan, John Major, Gordon Brown, Theresa May, Harold Wilson (to an extent), Margaret Thatcher, Ted Heath
Nowhere to place: David Cameron. Frothy on substance, serious in style. Quite the combo!
I don't agree with much of that at all. Blair (war criminality aside) was an impressive performer who knew how to read the mood of the nation. Harold wasn't far behind, and Thatcher (whom I detested) was smart enough to have advisers who advised her with perfect timing. Those three are Premier League.
Ted and Jim had something about them, but they were both not without their faults, both were arrogant and self-serving, which brings us to Cameron. He could have been Premier League but he was hoisted by his own petard. Championship.
Major, Brown and May were all First/Second Division. Solid, sensible and uninspiring.
Starmer is certainly not Premier League material but he could reach the heights of Ted or Jim should his opportunity arrive.
So what of Johnson? In my book he's Hackney Marshes Sunday League material.
I have been away from PB for a few days while packing.
Are you going somewhere nice?
New York, Covid willing.
Arrive New Year’s Eve. I gloomily half-expect to land on the threshold of another lockdown. The censoriousness of New York seems to be quite different from licentious London.
My brother's in New York, and confirmed with him today Omicron is just not even on anyone's radar as a serious issue over there.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
More specifically, the MPs always knew of his significant potential weaknesses - but perhaps hoped that he’d mature in the job rather more than he has done. But now these weaknesses are on show for everyone to see, on top of which the reason he was appointed - his election winning magic - is draining away.
It’s gone Ian. Before they pulled the plug on Boris after his awful conference speech his own party already knew this.
A challenge to anyone on here who thinks Boris can win the next general election, what is the basket of ideas currently driving his government building next election win that sit under the heading Borism?
Last election platform was 1) end to Tory austerity 2) get Brexit done 3) keep Corbyn out.
What wins the next election for him? Believing he will deliver Levelling Up?
What is Borism?
And what is Starmerism?
Seriously. What would a Starmer Govt look like?
RW Tory voters not only voted for Brexit but also because they were sick and tired of the Labour Party seeing them as a bunch of gammon racists with outmoded views, and whom they despised. Despite Starmer’s attempts, I don’t see any change in that view. The idea that Yvette Cooper handling immigration will soothe voter fears is a laugh.
The Tories have a leadership issue. BJ may or may not get out of this (he knows his History - he will have plenty of historical examples of how to do a u-turn) but, if he doesn’t, the Tories get someone else and off they go.
Labour have a fundamental strategic problem. That is far harder to solve.
Back in September, Starmer wrote a 35-page document on his vision for Labour, and how he'll send it to the centre ground. And that's the problem. 35 effing pages. 14,000 words.
No, it's 200k cases of Omicron in circulation which 20% of English cases for 1m in total. That also matches ONS data and the testing regime.
His exact words were...
"the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current rate of, the current number of daily infections are around 200,000"
Daily infections has to be read as new cases, not total cases in circulation.
That doesn't make any sense and isn't reflected in the ONS or testing data.
ONS is 1 week backward looking....we are at ~60k detected cases today, which is 2-3 days backward looking and totally normal to estimate only picks up 1/2 to 1/3.of actual cases.
Also its the HSA model....the same one predicting a million omicron cases a day by the end of the year.....
I have been away from PB for a few days while packing.
Are you going somewhere nice?
New York, Covid willing.
Arrive New Year’s Eve. I gloomily half-expect to land on the threshold of another lockdown. The censoriousness of New York seems to be quite different from licentious London.
My brother's in New York, and confirmed with him today Omicron is just not even on anyone's radar as a serious issue over there.
Ok, but my daughter’s school-to-be just cancelled “christmas carols and menorah lighting”. Apparently the (nativity?) play is still full steam ahead though.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as boosters, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
It was being done in a planned way, it was already available to 30-somethings.
Err, yes. A badly planned way.
How was it badly planned? The vulnerable were already done. No other comparable nation even comes close. All despite the JCVIs prevarication.
You're being petulant.
Couple of examples - hope they're petulant enough:
- Despite the JVCI taking a contrarian view against international best practice causing months of delay to the decision to vaccinate 12-15 year-olds, the rollout still wasn't ready to go when finally approved, meaning that only a minority had been vaccinated by October half-term. I'm not sure that "no other comparable" nation has done this as badly, but a lot have done it better. And there's still no plan for the second vaccination in the course for this group, or for vaccination certification for them. Large numbers of infections during the past term could have been reduced, which would have helped to control case numbers in the wider community as well as protecting teenagers from the medical risks of covid and from missing out on education. As the parent of a teenager, this doesn't feel like great planning.
- From Johnson's last "I need to move the news agenda on" announcement of expanding the availability of boosters to actual implementation was around three weeks even to amend booking criteria to take account of reducing the intra-dose time from 6 months to 5 months then to 3 months. During this period the vaccination booking website said essentially "plans to do the stuff the PM announced are coming soon, check back later". Announcing something which there seems to be no plan to implement and then scrambling to do it doesn't feel like great planning.
On the first point prevarication over the young lies squarely with the JCVI.
Did someone elect the JCVI to government. It's the govt's responsibility. They can do what they want. They are advised by scientists and the JCVI but they make the decisions.
Unless you are saying they are pathetic indecisive idiots.
It is the government's responsibility ultimately, but its also the government's responsibility to maintain faith in the vaccine system for the long-term. So the JCVIs independence is important to maintain.
Advisors advise but the JCVI were engaged in almost malfeasance by simply refusing to advise. They were refusing to give the government their advice.
I believe that ultimately Javid had to hurry them along threatening to change the setup if they refused to put their report in by a deadline. It shouldn't have taken Javid to do that to get them to do their job.
I have been away from PB for a few days while packing.
Are you going somewhere nice?
New York, Covid willing.
Arrive New Year’s Eve. I gloomily half-expect to land on the threshold of another lockdown. The censoriousness of New York seems to be quite different from licentious London.
My brother's in New York, and confirmed with him today Omicron is just not even on anyone's radar as a serious issue over there.
Ok, but my daughter’s school-to-be just cancelled “christmas carols and menorah lighting”. Apparently the (nativity?) play is still full steam ahead though.
I have been away from PB for a few days while packing.
Are you going somewhere nice?
New York, Covid willing.
Arrive New Year’s Eve. I gloomily half-expect to land on the threshold of another lockdown. The censoriousness of New York seems to be quite different from licentious London.
My brother's in New York, and confirmed with him today Omicron is just not even on anyone's radar as a serious issue over there.
Ok, but my daughter’s school-to-be just cancelled “christmas carols and menorah lighting”. Apparently the (nativity?) play is still full steam ahead though.
RW Tory voters not only voted for Brexit but also because they were sick and tired of the Labour Party seeing them as a bunch of gammon racists with outmoded views, and whom they despised. Despite Starmer’s attempts, I don’t see any change in that view. The idea that Yvette Cooper handling immigration will soothe voter fears is a laugh.
The Tories have a leadership issue. BJ may or may not get out of this (he knows his History - he will have plenty of historical examples of how to do a u-turn) but, if he doesn’t, the Tories get someone else and off they go.
Labour have a fundamental strategic problem. That is far harder to solve.
As I said the other day, directed just as much at Labour supporters as Tories "If people in the Red Wall were a race, it'd be illegal to generalise about them like some of us do." They vary, like people in every area, and are by no means the mass of thick, stubborn Sun readers that a lot of folk seem to think. Some are extremely concerned about immigration, some don't give a toss about it but are worried about something else, or simply got fed up with Labour and thought they'd give the Tories a spin.
Note that in several recent polls, the shift to Labour is largest in the North...
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as boosters, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
It was being done in a planned way, it was already available to 30-somethings.
Err, yes. A badly planned way.
How was it badly planned? The vulnerable were already done. No other comparable nation even comes close. All despite the JCVIs prevarication.
You're being petulant.
Couple of examples - hope they're petulant enough:
- Despite the JVCI taking a contrarian view against international best practice causing months of delay to the decision to vaccinate 12-15 year-olds, the rollout still wasn't ready to go when finally approved, meaning that only a minority had been vaccinated by October half-term. I'm not sure that "no other comparable" nation has done this as badly, but a lot have done it better. And there's still no plan for the second vaccination in the course for this group, or for vaccination certification for them. Large numbers of infections during the past term could have been reduced, which would have helped to control case numbers in the wider community as well as protecting teenagers from the medical risks of covid and from missing out on education. As the parent of a teenager, this doesn't feel like great planning.
- From Johnson's last "I need to move the news agenda on" announcement of expanding the availability of boosters to actual implementation was around three weeks even to amend booking criteria to take account of reducing the intra-dose time from 6 months to 5 months then to 3 months. During this period the vaccination booking website said essentially "plans to do the stuff the PM announced are coming soon, check back later". Announcing something which there seems to be no plan to implement and then scrambling to do it doesn't feel like great planning.
On the first point prevarication over the young lies squarely with the JCVI.
Did someone elect the JCVI to government. It's the govt's responsibility. They can do what they want. They are advised by scientists and the JCVI but they make the decisions.
Unless you are saying they are pathetic indecisive idiots.
Tyranny of experts, TOPPING. Tried to warn you about the expert class in 2016 as well.
No, it's 200k cases of Omicron in circulation which 20% of English cases for 1m in total. That also matches ONS data and the testing regime.
His exact words were...
"the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current rate of, the current number of daily infections are around 200,000"
Daily infections has to be read as new cases, not total cases in circulation.
That doesn't make any sense and isn't reflected in the ONS or testing data.
ONS is 1 week backward looking....we are at ~60k detected cases today, which is 2-3 days backward looking and totally normal to estimate only picks up 1/2 to 1/3.of actual cases.
Also its the HSA model....the same one predicting a million omicron cases a day by the end of the year.....
The last date by for 7 day case total by specimen date actually went down today - if Omicron is running wild Delta must be having a terrible time of it to keep the averages so stable.
Fortunately not looking like a crook is more than enough
I don't think it is Roger. Life under Starmer looks like lockdown forever. They would not have demanded and it is hard to see that they ever will. Now you could argue that Boris displays rather too much joke de vive but Labour's recipe seems to be to abandon any sort of enjoyment of life you might ever have. It's not an appealing look. Starmer would have taken all Boris's bad decisions without any of the good ones.
Fortunately not looking like a crook is more than enough
I don't think it is Roger. Life under Starmer looks like lockdown forever. They would not have demanded and it is hard to see that they ever will. Now you could argue that Boris displays rather too much joke de vive but Labour's recipe seems to be to abandon any sort of enjoyment of life you might ever have. It's not an appealing look. Starmer would have taken all Boris's bad decisions without any of the good ones.
What about a Starmer administration relying on the LDs for support?
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as boosters, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
It was being done in a planned way, it was already available to 30-somethings.
Err, yes. A badly planned way.
How was it badly planned? The vulnerable were already done. No other comparable nation even comes close. All despite the JCVIs prevarication.
You're being petulant.
Couple of examples - hope they're petulant enough:
- Despite the JVCI taking a contrarian view against international best practice causing months of delay to the decision to vaccinate 12-15 year-olds, the rollout still wasn't ready to go when finally approved, meaning that only a minority had been vaccinated by October half-term. I'm not sure that "no other comparable" nation has done this as badly, but a lot have done it better. And there's still no plan for the second vaccination in the course for this group, or for vaccination certification for them. Large numbers of infections during the past term could have been reduced, which would have helped to control case numbers in the wider community as well as protecting teenagers from the medical risks of covid and from missing out on education. As the parent of a teenager, this doesn't feel like great planning.
- From Johnson's last "I need to move the news agenda on" announcement of expanding the availability of boosters to actual implementation was around three weeks even to amend booking criteria to take account of reducing the intra-dose time from 6 months to 5 months then to 3 months. During this period the vaccination booking website said essentially "plans to do the stuff the PM announced are coming soon, check back later". Announcing something which there seems to be no plan to implement and then scrambling to do it doesn't feel like great planning.
On the first point prevarication over the young lies squarely with the JCVI.
Did someone elect the JCVI to government. It's the govt's responsibility. They can do what they want. They are advised by scientists and the JCVI but they make the decisions.
Unless you are saying they are pathetic indecisive idiots.
It is the government's responsibility ultimately, but its also the government's responsibility to maintain faith in the vaccine system for the long-term. So the JCVIs independence is important to maintain.
Advisors advise but the JCVI were engaged in almost malfeasance by simply refusing to advise. They were refusing to give the government their advice.
I believe that ultimately Javid had to hurry them along threatening to change the setup if they refused to put their report in by a deadline. It shouldn't have taken Javid to do that to get them to do their job.
It's what happens when the government hands over policy decisions to unaccountable "experts". We have no way to vote them out and more often than not it turns out these experts are anything but public policy experts.
No, it's 200k cases of Omicron in circulation which 20% of English cases for 1m in total. That also matches ONS data and the testing regime.
His exact words were...
"the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current rate of, the current number of daily infections are around 200,000"
Daily infections has to be read as new cases, not total cases in circulation.
That doesn't make any sense and isn't reflected in the ONS or testing data.
ONS is 1 week backward looking....we are at ~60k detected cases today, which is 2-3 days backward looking and totally normal to estimate only picks up 1/2 to 1/3.of actual cases.
Also its the HSA model....the same one predicting a million omicron cases a day by the end of the year.....
The last date by for 7 day case total by specimen date actually went down today - if Omicron is running wild Delta must be having a terrible time of it to keep the averages so stable.
As far as i case see case by report and specimen 7 day average is up.
I have some well-connected and prestigious friends who had lunch with Keir recently.
They left impressed by his tenacity on the internal clean-up job after Corbyn’s disastrous tenure (apparently something of personal mission given Keir’s family circumstances), but not at all convinced he has yet figured out a vision, let alone one he can sell to middle Britain.
Oh, and apparently Keir and Sir Ed are in regular contact. The tacit alliance is live and kicking.
Not wanting to be especially contentious, but what are his plans to finish the clean-up job?
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
The UK has already boosted the vulnerable and France is playing catchup from a much worse position. For the nth time running, you are making a fallacious argument.
You are the one making a fallacious point. When did I ever say that France was in a much better position than us?
I don't know about you, but personally I am capable of understanding four separate points simultaneously:
1. We started jabbing earlier than France, and started boosting earlier (although of course we needed to start boosting earlier, because our earlier start on the first two jabs meant we were getting into the vaccine effectiveness waning earlier). 2. However, we squandered much of that advantage, in that we haven't completed the programme before midwinter, when we could have done. 3. It's now a race against time to get more boosters into arms, made much worse by Omicron. 4. Currently, France's rate of getting boosters into arms is much higher than ours, showing that it can be done.
Four whole points. I know it's hard, but if you really, really try you might manage it.
Point 1 is false. France started earlier than us, as you can see from the stories below or the graph I helpfully provided for you above.
Sept 1st: France on Wednesday started administering booster shots of COVID-19 vaccine. France is the first big EU country to introduce widespread booster shots
Your remaining points are spurious. We haven't squandered anything but are enjoying the benefits of a higher level of protection among vulnerable people. If it's a race against time, we've already won. France is having to go faster now because they messed up their initial rollout and are now suffering the consequences with a surge in hospitalisations beyond our level last February.
I know it's hard, but you really, really might try to keep your unthinking Francophilia under control.
Fortunately not looking like a crook is more than enough
I don't think it is Roger. Life under Starmer looks like lockdown forever. They would not have demanded and it is hard to see that they ever will. Now you could argue that Boris displays rather too much joke de vive but Labour's recipe seems to be to abandon any sort of enjoyment of life you might ever have. It's not an appealing look. Starmer would have taken all Boris's bad decisions without any of the good ones.
What about a Starmer administration relying on the LDs for support?
I'm sure that the Liberal Democrats' commitment to liberty would prove every bit as resolute as their opposition to university tuition fees.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as boosters, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
It was being done in a planned way, it was already available to 30-somethings.
Err, yes. A badly planned way.
How was it badly planned? The vulnerable were already done. No other comparable nation even comes close. All despite the JCVIs prevarication.
You're being petulant.
Couple of examples - hope they're petulant enough:
- Despite the JVCI taking a contrarian view against international best practice causing months of delay to the decision to vaccinate 12-15 year-olds, the rollout still wasn't ready to go when finally approved, meaning that only a minority had been vaccinated by October half-term. I'm not sure that "no other comparable" nation has done this as badly, but a lot have done it better. And there's still no plan for the second vaccination in the course for this group, or for vaccination certification for them. Large numbers of infections during the past term could have been reduced, which would have helped to control case numbers in the wider community as well as protecting teenagers from the medical risks of covid and from missing out on education. As the parent of a teenager, this doesn't feel like great planning.
- From Johnson's last "I need to move the news agenda on" announcement of expanding the availability of boosters to actual implementation was around three weeks even to amend booking criteria to take account of reducing the intra-dose time from 6 months to 5 months then to 3 months. During this period the vaccination booking website said essentially "plans to do the stuff the PM announced are coming soon, check back later". Announcing something which there seems to be no plan to implement and then scrambling to do it doesn't feel like great planning.
On the first point prevarication over the young lies squarely with the JCVI.
Did someone elect the JCVI to government. It's the govt's responsibility. They can do what they want. They are advised by scientists and the JCVI but they make the decisions.
Unless you are saying they are pathetic indecisive idiots.
It is the government's responsibility ultimately, but its also the government's responsibility to maintain faith in the vaccine system for the long-term. So the JCVIs independence is important to maintain.
Advisors advise but the JCVI were engaged in almost malfeasance by simply refusing to advise. They were refusing to give the government their advice.
I believe that ultimately Javid had to hurry them along threatening to change the setup if they refused to put their report in by a deadline. It shouldn't have taken Javid to do that to get them to do their job.
It's what happens when the government hands over policy decisions to unaccountable "experts". We have no way to vote them out and more often than not it turns out these experts are anything but public policy experts.
No, it's what happens when the government doesn't ask the experts the right questions, and doesn't scrutinise, understand, and challenge the answers.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as boosters, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
It was being done in a planned way, it was already available to 30-somethings.
Err, yes. A badly planned way.
How was it badly planned? The vulnerable were already done. No other comparable nation even comes close. All despite the JCVIs prevarication.
You're being petulant.
Couple of examples - hope they're petulant enough:
- Despite the JVCI taking a contrarian view against international best practice causing months of delay to the decision to vaccinate 12-15 year-olds, the rollout still wasn't ready to go when finally approved, meaning that only a minority had been vaccinated by October half-term. I'm not sure that "no other comparable" nation has done this as badly, but a lot have done it better. And there's still no plan for the second vaccination in the course for this group, or for vaccination certification for them. Large numbers of infections during the past term could have been reduced, which would have helped to control case numbers in the wider community as well as protecting teenagers from the medical risks of covid and from missing out on education. As the parent of a teenager, this doesn't feel like great planning.
- From Johnson's last "I need to move the news agenda on" announcement of expanding the availability of boosters to actual implementation was around three weeks even to amend booking criteria to take account of reducing the intra-dose time from 6 months to 5 months then to 3 months. During this period the vaccination booking website said essentially "plans to do the stuff the PM announced are coming soon, check back later". Announcing something which there seems to be no plan to implement and then scrambling to do it doesn't feel like great planning.
On the first point prevarication over the young lies squarely with the JCVI.
On the second you're being entirely unreasonable. The boosters were expanded but they explicitly said they would stick with the priority regimen. So yes as a thirty nine year old my eligibility was only accepted on the weekend but that wasn't because they had no plan to implement ... It is because they quite rightly stuck with the plan of jabbing those who were older and vulnerable first.
It makes no sense to be vaccinating not vulnerable 39 year olds before all 49 or 59 year olds have been done first. That's sticking with the plan and if you look at the by age breakdown chart @CarlottaVance shared earlier it's worked.
Not only has the UK done double the booster jabs that any other comparable nation, but they've gone to the right people.
I deliberately didn't blame the government for the JCVI's prevarication (though I think they could have done more to address that). My point was that event with the delay the programme wasn't ready to go - less justifiable than it would have been if the approval had come quickly.
On the second, I'm not questioning the priority. As a 40-something 5 months past my 2nd dose, the implication of the last round of booster announcements was that I was eligible for a booster immediately (I can't remember the exact phrasing, but it was clear enough that I was checking for changes in the booking policy daily). A change to the plan was announced and it took several weeks to implement it. I'm sure you're right about your treatment as a 39 year old, but to pick your phrase I counted as "old and vulnerable" but couldn't get a booster for a few weeks in line with announced policy.
In case this sounds a bit grumpy, I also caught covid while waiting for that booster and haven't really had a great week as a result.
Please take this as a compliment but as a 40-something you're not classed as "old and vulnerable".
You might class as vulnerable if you are specifically a vulnerable group, but you're not old. The priority was to go through the age groups in order, starting with JCVI Groups 1-9 in order which 40-somethings are not in. Now you might be in Group 6 if you're vulnerable, but if you're not then you'd be in [from memory] Group 10 instead.
So just as it made sense for me to wait until you'd been offered yours, it makes sense sense unfortunately for you to have to wait until those in their 50s or 60s had been done first. And 50s had to wait until the 60s were done etc
So its not a lack of planning, its just waiting your turn. Very British system of queueing.
Its unlucky that you got infected while you were waiting your turn, that's unlucky. Hopefully you've made a full recovery now?
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
More specifically, the MPs always knew of his significant potential weaknesses - but perhaps hoped that he’d mature in the job rather more than he has done. But now these weaknesses are on show for everyone to see, on top of which the reason he was appointed - his election winning magic - is draining away.
It’s gone Ian. Before they pulled the plug on Boris after his awful conference speech his own party already knew this.
A challenge to anyone on here who thinks Boris can win the next general election, what is the basket of ideas currently driving his government building next election win that sit under the heading Borism?
Last election platform was 1) end to Tory austerity 2) get Brexit done 3) keep Corbyn out.
What wins the next election for him? Believing he will deliver Levelling Up?
What is Borism?
And what is Starmerism?
Seriously. What would a Starmer Govt look like?
RW Tory voters not only voted for Brexit but also because they were sick and tired of the Labour Party seeing them as a bunch of gammon racists with outmoded views, and whom they despised. Despite Starmer’s attempts, I don’t see any change in that view. The idea that Yvette Cooper handling immigration will soothe voter fears is a laugh.
The Tories have a leadership issue. BJ may or may not get out of this (he knows his History - he will have plenty of historical examples of how to do a u-turn) but, if he doesn’t, the Tories get someone else and off they go.
Labour have a fundamental strategic problem. That is far harder to solve.
Back in September, Starmer wrote a 35-page document on his vision for Labour, and how he'll send it to the centre ground. And that's the problem. 35 effing pages. 14,000 words.
At the moment he has vague notions of reheated Milibandism, which the writer Phil Collins turned into a 14,000 magnus opus.
And there must be someone on the left who can digest the brief and turn it into something snappy. Not a job I'd want, but there you go.
More generally, there are examples of LOtOs turning their reputation around- Dave C was a standard issue chinless PR wonder before about 2008, and Maggie was only really seen as being up to the job after 1978 or so. Harder to think of a PM who, once their reputation breaks, meaningfully restores it. Maybe Maggie post-Falklands but I'm not sure even there.
No, it's 200k cases of Omicron in circulation which 20% of English cases for 1m in total. That also matches ONS data and the testing regime.
His exact words were...
"the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current rate of, the current number of daily infections are around 200,000"
Daily infections has to be read as new cases, not total cases in circulation.
That doesn't make any sense and isn't reflected in the ONS or testing data.
ONS is 1 week backward looking....we are at ~60k detected cases today, which is 2-3 days backward looking and totally normal to estimate only picks up 1/2 to 1/3.of actual cases.
Also its the HSA model....the same one predicting a million omicron cases a day by the end of the year.....
The last date by for 7 day case total by specimen date actually went down today - if Omicron is running wild Delta must be having a terrible time of it to keep the averages so stable.
As far as i case see case by report and specimen 7 day average is up.
7 day average to Dec 4th - 48,079 7 day average to Dec 3rd - 48,144
No, it's 200k cases of Omicron in circulation which 20% of English cases for 1m in total. That also matches ONS data and the testing regime.
His exact words were...
"the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current rate of, the current number of daily infections are around 200,000"
Daily infections has to be read as new cases, not total cases in circulation.
That doesn't make any sense and isn't reflected in the ONS or testing data.
ONS is 1 week backward looking....we are at ~60k detected cases today, which is 2-3 days backward looking and totally normal to estimate only picks up 1/2 to 1/3.of actual cases.
Also its the HSA model....the same one predicting a million omicron cases a day by the end of the year.....
The last date by for 7 day case total by specimen date actually went down today - if Omicron is running wild Delta must be having a terrible time of it to keep the averages so stable.
As far as i case see case by report and specimen 7 day average is up.
7 day average to Dec 4th - 48,079 7 day average to Dec 3rd - 48,144
The head of Ontario's Science Advisory Table is urging people to stop their "wishful thinking" when it comes to the Omicron coronavirus variant, adding that any suggestion that the COVID-19 variant causes milder illness is a "myth."
"This is historical. This is unprecedented. This week Omicron will become the dominant variant in the province... People cannot imagine the sheer scale of what we are talking about here. It is really challenging," Dr. Peter Jüni, the head of the province's Science Advisory Table.
According to the science table, the effective reproductive (RT) number for Omicron in Ontario is now 4.1, meaning that every 100 new Omicron cases will go on to generate 410 secondary infections. All other previous variants of the virus combined have an RT value of 1.32.
No, it's 200k cases of Omicron in circulation which 20% of English cases for 1m in total. That also matches ONS data and the testing regime.
His exact words were...
"the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current rate of, the current number of daily infections are around 200,000"
Daily infections has to be read as new cases, not total cases in circulation.
That doesn't make any sense and isn't reflected in the ONS or testing data.
ONS is 1 week backward looking....we are at ~60k detected cases today, which is 2-3 days backward looking and totally normal to estimate only picks up 1/2 to 1/3.of actual cases.
Also its the HSA model....the same one predicting a million omicron cases a day by the end of the year.....
The last date by for 7 day case total by specimen date actually went down today - if Omicron is running wild Delta must be having a terrible time of it to keep the averages so stable.
As far as i case see case by report and specimen 7 day average is up.
7 day average to Dec 4th - 48,079 7 day average to Dec 3rd - 48,144
Those are the last 2 dates for which the dashboard provides a specimen date 7 day average.
It is indeed the case that later dates are likely to be high, with cases currently growing (slower than the increase in testing). But my statement was correct, as you presumably started to realised whilst editing.
ATM I’m scared about what the Scottish Government will announce tomorrow. Particularly as they are a bunch of puritans who think that pubs, and those that use them, are sinful. I hope they don’t copy Norway,
Fortunately not looking like a crook is more than enough
I don't think it is Roger. Life under Starmer looks like lockdown forever. They would not have demanded and it is hard to see that they ever will. Now you could argue that Boris displays rather too much joke de vive but Labour's recipe seems to be to abandon any sort of enjoyment of life you might ever have. It's not an appealing look. Starmer would have taken all Boris's bad decisions without any of the good ones.
That's ridiculous. Starmer has played the game of being seen to be supportive of the Government at a time of national crisis - it's not an unreasonable look and wards off the "what would have you done differently?" question.
We aren't aware of all the information the Government has at its disposal - not so long ago, there were people on here claiming case numbers would collapse by Christmas.
Do you want the Prime Minister to ignore all the information provided, all the advice supplied and simply say "well, I was on this forum and they think I should do this"?
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as boosters, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
It was being done in a planned way, it was already available to 30-somethings.
Err, yes. A badly planned way.
How was it badly planned? The vulnerable were already done. No other comparable nation even comes close. All despite the JCVIs prevarication.
You're being petulant.
Couple of examples - hope they're petulant enough:
- Despite the JVCI taking a contrarian view against international best practice causing months of delay to the decision to vaccinate 12-15 year-olds, the rollout still wasn't ready to go when finally approved, meaning that only a minority had been vaccinated by October half-term. I'm not sure that "no other comparable" nation has done this as badly, but a lot have done it better. And there's still no plan for the second vaccination in the course for this group, or for vaccination certification for them. Large numbers of infections during the past term could have been reduced, which would have helped to control case numbers in the wider community as well as protecting teenagers from the medical risks of covid and from missing out on education. As the parent of a teenager, this doesn't feel like great planning.
- From Johnson's last "I need to move the news agenda on" announcement of expanding the availability of boosters to actual implementation was around three weeks even to amend booking criteria to take account of reducing the intra-dose time from 6 months to 5 months then to 3 months. During this period the vaccination booking website said essentially "plans to do the stuff the PM announced are coming soon, check back later". Announcing something which there seems to be no plan to implement and then scrambling to do it doesn't feel like great planning.
On the first point prevarication over the young lies squarely with the JCVI.
Did someone elect the JCVI to government. It's the govt's responsibility. They can do what they want. They are advised by scientists and the JCVI but they make the decisions.
Unless you are saying they are pathetic indecisive idiots.
It is the government's responsibility ultimately, but its also the government's responsibility to maintain faith in the vaccine system for the long-term. So the JCVIs independence is important to maintain.
Advisors advise but the JCVI were engaged in almost malfeasance by simply refusing to advise. They were refusing to give the government their advice.
I believe that ultimately Javid had to hurry them along threatening to change the setup if they refused to put their report in by a deadline. It shouldn't have taken Javid to do that to get them to do their job.
It's what happens when the government hands over policy decisions to unaccountable "experts". We have no way to vote them out and more often than not it turns out these experts are anything but public policy experts.
No, it's what happens when the government doesn't ask the experts the right questions, and doesn't scrutinise, understand, and challenge the answers.
Ever the defender of the "expert" class. I'm sure you would have been part of the 360 economists condemning Mrs Thatcher at the time as well. I don't disagree that the government has been poor at properly questioning them but the advice has been poor all throughout. The star performing expert was a private sector venture capitalist who the public sector briefed against and tried to get pushed out of the role. The academics have been pretty poor overall. There's been a real lack of transparency as well from the academics, I'm still waiting for the underlying code to be uploaded to GitHub for the 25k-75k deaths model that is supposedly driving decision making.
The government is poor and their advisors have been poor as well. It's the main reason we've had an uneven pandemic strategy over the last two years.
No, it's 200k cases of Omicron in circulation which 20% of English cases for 1m in total. That also matches ONS data and the testing regime.
His exact words were...
"the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current rate of, the current number of daily infections are around 200,000"
Daily infections has to be read as new cases, not total cases in circulation.
That doesn't make any sense and isn't reflected in the ONS or testing data.
ONS is 1 week backward looking....we are at ~60k detected cases today, which is 2-3 days backward looking and totally normal to estimate only picks up 1/2 to 1/3.of actual cases.
Also its the HSA model....the same one predicting a million omicron cases a day by the end of the year.....
The last date by for 7 day case total by specimen date actually went down today - if Omicron is running wild Delta must be having a terrible time of it to keep the averages so stable.
As far as i case see case by report and specimen 7 day average is up.
7 day average to Dec 4th - 48,079 7 day average to Dec 3rd - 48,144
Those are the last 2 dates for which the dashboard provides a specimen date 7 day average.
It is indeed the case that later dates are likely to be high, with cases currently growing (slower than the increase in testing). But my statement was correct, as you presumably started to realised whilst editing.
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
The UK has already boosted the vulnerable and France is playing catchup from a much worse position. For the nth time running, you are making a fallacious argument.
You are the one making a fallacious point. When did I ever say that France was in a much better position than us?
I don't know about you, but personally I am capable of understanding four separate points simultaneously:
1. We started jabbing earlier than France, and started boosting earlier (although of course we needed to start boosting earlier, because our earlier start on the first two jabs meant we were getting into the vaccine effectiveness waning earlier). 2. However, we squandered much of that advantage, in that we haven't completed the programme before midwinter, when we could have done. 3. It's now a race against time to get more boosters into arms, made much worse by Omicron. 4. Currently, France's rate of getting boosters into arms is much higher than ours, showing that it can be done.
Four whole points. I know it's hard, but if you really, really try you might manage it.
Point 1 is false. France started earlier than us, as you can see from the stories below or the graph I helpfully provided for you above.
Sept 1st: France on Wednesday started administering booster shots of COVID-19 vaccine. France is the first big EU country to introduce widespread booster shots
Your remaining points are spurious. We haven't squandered anything but are enjoying the benefits of a higher level of protection among vulnerable people. If it's a race against time, we've already won. France is having to go faster now because they messed up their initial rollout and are now suffering the consequences with a surge in hospitalisations beyond our level last February.
I know it's hard, but you really, really might try to keep your unthinking Francophilia under control.
Blimey, you've turned into some kind of Leave EU nutter. It's 'unthinking Francophilia' to point to one international comparison when making a point about the current UK rate of boosting?
I wasn't even making any point about France particularly. My point was about the UK. But if you want my opinion on how France's vaccination programme has been compared with ours, the answer is that ours has been very much better overall, especially the quick start a year ago, and also in prioritising key groups.
No, it's 200k cases of Omicron in circulation which 20% of English cases for 1m in total. That also matches ONS data and the testing regime.
His exact words were...
"the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current rate of, the current number of daily infections are around 200,000"
Daily infections has to be read as new cases, not total cases in circulation.
That doesn't make any sense and isn't reflected in the ONS or testing data.
ONS is 1 week backward looking....we are at ~60k detected cases today, which is 2-3 days backward looking and totally normal to estimate only picks up 1/2 to 1/3.of actual cases.
Also its the HSA model....the same one predicting a million omicron cases a day by the end of the year.....
The last date by for 7 day case total by specimen date actually went down today - if Omicron is running wild Delta must be having a terrible time of it to keep the averages so stable.
As far as i case see case by report and specimen 7 day average is up.
7 day average to Dec 4th - 48,079 7 day average to Dec 3rd - 48,144
Those are the last 2 dates for which the dashboard provides a specimen date 7 day average.
It is indeed the case that later dates are likely to be high, with cases currently growing (slower than the increase in testing). But my statement was correct, as you presumably started to realised whilst editing.
Case reported 7 day is up 10%...
Cases reported up 9.9% from 11.6% more tests, and tests set to grow even faster with the LFT demand spike. The gap between infections and measured cases can't be assumed to be static in an environment where covid has such prominance in the media and people's minds.
Well....Hugo says he asked, and they said definitely daily new omicron infections....i call bullshit on their model. They actually want us to believe we are running at 1 million new cases of covid per day at the moment. Lets say omicron is 40% rather than 20%, we still have to believe testing is picking up a tiny fraction of covid cases.....
UKHSA modelling suggests that the number of people who catch the Omicron variant in Britain today is likely to be around 200,000. If this is at all accurate it means the daily confirmed case count will inevitably pass its previous record before Xmas.
ATM I’m scared about what the Scottish Government will announce tomorrow. Particularly as they are a bunch of puritans who think that pubs, and those that use them, are sinful. I hope they don’t copy Norway,
AQ family of four have to live in four socially distanced garden sheds
A question: what is the status of the Nichtingale Hospitals? Are they all mothballed or returned to other uses?
If the government was really worried about large numbers of hospitalisations, then I'd expect them to be getting them ready for action - if only in a preliminary manner/
A question: what is the status of the Nichtingale Hospitals? Are they all mothballed or returned to other uses?
If the government was really worried about large numbers of hospitalisations, then I'd expect them to be getting them ready for action - if only in a preliminary manner/
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
When asked does he still have your support he will have 300 MPs saying yes. If there was a secret ballot confidence vote today he would lose it. It’s nothing to do with no rules were broken at the parties that didn’t exist destroying all trust in him - it’s to do with his stupid speech at conference. He’s got nothing to say anymore. He’s naked. No a single sausage of ideology to explain. The vote of no confidence is coming in January even without the defeat in North Shropshire.
More specifically, the MPs always knew of his significant potential weaknesses - but perhaps hoped that he’d mature in the job rather more than he has done. But now these weaknesses are on show for everyone to see, on top of which the reason he was appointed - his election winning magic - is draining away.
It’s gone Ian. Before they pulled the plug on Boris after his awful conference speech his own party already knew this.
A challenge to anyone on here who thinks Boris can win the next general election, what is the basket of ideas currently driving his government, building next election win, that sit under the heading Borism?
Last election platform was 1) end to Tory austerity 2) get Brexit done 3) keep Corbyn out.
What wins the next election for him? Believing he will deliver Levelling Up?
What is Borism?
The pitch could be three things. 1. Keep Brexit Safe (from the Remainer-in-Chief, Sir Keir Starmer) 2. Keep Taxes Low (after the pre-election income tax) 3. Keep Levelling Up (look at the money your Tory MP - and Rishi - spent on your town)
Its pathetic middle-aged attention seeking....look at me I'm a rebel I am....
Rather ageist.
How is "middle aged attention seeking" different from the generation snowflake aka millenial or old codger variety?
“Generation snowflake” is nearly middle-aged.
So are Millenials. The cap fits
Millennials, also known as Generation Y or Gen Y, are the demographic cohort following Generation X and preceding Generation Z. Researchers and popular media use the early 1980s as starting birth years and the mid-1990s to early 2000s as ending birth years,
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
The UK has already boosted the vulnerable and France is playing catchup from a much worse position. For the nth time running, you are making a fallacious argument.
You are the one making a fallacious point. When did I ever say that France was in a much better position than us?
I don't know about you, but personally I am capable of understanding four separate points simultaneously:
1. We started jabbing earlier than France, and started boosting earlier (although of course we needed to start boosting earlier, because our earlier start on the first two jabs meant we were getting into the vaccine effectiveness waning earlier). 2. However, we squandered much of that advantage, in that we haven't completed the programme before midwinter, when we could have done. 3. It's now a race against time to get more boosters into arms, made much worse by Omicron. 4. Currently, France's rate of getting boosters into arms is much higher than ours, showing that it can be done.
Four whole points. I know it's hard, but if you really, really try you might manage it.
Point 1 is false. France started earlier than us, as you can see from the stories below or the graph I helpfully provided for you above.
Sept 1st: France on Wednesday started administering booster shots of COVID-19 vaccine. France is the first big EU country to introduce widespread booster shots
Your remaining points are spurious. We haven't squandered anything but are enjoying the benefits of a higher level of protection among vulnerable people. If it's a race against time, we've already won. France is having to go faster now because they messed up their initial rollout and are now suffering the consequences with a surge in hospitalisations beyond our level last February.
I know it's hard, but you really, really might try to keep your unthinking Francophilia under control.
Blimey, you've turned into some kind of Leave EU nutter. It's 'unthinking Francophilia' to point to one international comparison when making a point about the current UK rate of boosting?
I wasn't even making any point about France particularly. My point was about the UK. But if you want my opinion on how France's vaccination programme has been compared with ours, the answer is that ours has been very much better overall, especially the quick start a year ago, and also in prioritising key groups.
Or is that unacceptable Francophobia to say that?
An unfavourable comparison to France doesn't make sense though, they're behind us and they've already opened up to all 18+ to drum up demand. One of the reasons we're only going to have the 1m+ days now is that demand has been unrestricted. As the pharmacist said today while she waited for us to leave so she could close up, it's the first time she's ever finished her daily allocation of doses. The surge is about to happen in the UK and I think by the end of the week people will be shocked at the final number of vaccines done. Walk in centres with no restrictions are a game changer for the short term, we've never done it before on this scale either. Usually it's just a few sites or a one major site with publicity. This is basically every vaccination centre running at 100% capacity utilisation.
Its pathetic middle-aged attention seeking....look at me I'm a rebel I am....
Rather ageist.
How is "middle aged attention seeking" different from the generation snowflake aka millenial or old codger variety?
“Generation snowflake” is nearly middle-aged.
So are Millenials. The cap fits
Millennials, also known as Generation Y or Gen Y, are the demographic cohort following Generation X and preceding Generation Z. Researchers and popular media use the early 1980s as starting birth years and the mid-1990s to early 2000s as ending birth years,
If there are that many with Omicron it must be mild if the vast majority of that isn't translating into positive tests.
Mild....it must be so mild millions of people aren't going to even have a clue they have it over the next week and it will be through the whole population in a couple of weeks.
If there are that many with Omicron it must be mild if the vast majority of that isn't translating into positive tests.
This is the central issue. Hard to square the predictions with trends either here or South Africa if we're asked to believe it is both spreading rapidly (fine, 20 something trend in London is plain to see( AND just a severe as before.
Feels far more plausible that Omicron can evade anti-bodies and still spread, but there is enough residual t-cell protection amongst the 95% of people with some level of protection that it's not going to progress to severe disease as much as the pre-immunity waves.
Well....Hugo says he asked, and they said definitely daily new omicron infections....i call bullshit on their model. They actually want us to believe we are running at 1 million new cases of covid per day at the moment. Lets say omicron is 40% rather than 20%, we still have to believe testing is picking up a tiny fraction of covid cases.....
UKHSA modelling suggests that the number of people who catch the Omicron variant in Britain today is likely to be around 200,000. If this is at all accurate it means the daily confirmed case count will inevitably pass its previous record before Xmas.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as boosters, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
It was being done in a planned way, it was already available to 30-somethings.
Err, yes. A badly planned way.
How was it badly planned? The vulnerable were already done. No other comparable nation even comes close. All despite the JCVIs prevarication.
You're being petulant.
Couple of examples - hope they're petulant enough:
- Despite the JVCI taking a contrarian view against international best practice causing months of delay to the decision to vaccinate 12-15 year-olds, the rollout still wasn't ready to go when finally approved, meaning that only a minority had been vaccinated by October half-term. I'm not sure that "no other comparable" nation has done this as badly, but a lot have done it better. And there's still no plan for the second vaccination in the course for this group, or for vaccination certification for them. Large numbers of infections during the past term could have been reduced, which would have helped to control case numbers in the wider community as well as protecting teenagers from the medical risks of covid and from missing out on education. As the parent of a teenager, this doesn't feel like great planning.
- From Johnson's last "I need to move the news agenda on" announcement of expanding the availability of boosters to actual implementation was around three weeks even to amend booking criteria to take account of reducing the intra-dose time from 6 months to 5 months then to 3 months. During this period the vaccination booking website said essentially "plans to do the stuff the PM announced are coming soon, check back later". Announcing something which there seems to be no plan to implement and then scrambling to do it doesn't feel like great planning.
On the first point prevarication over the young lies squarely with the JCVI.
On the second you're being entirely unreasonable. The boosters were expanded but they explicitly said they would stick with the priority regimen. So yes as a thirty nine year old my eligibility was only accepted on the weekend but that wasn't because they had no plan to implement ... It is because they quite rightly stuck with the plan of jabbing those who were older and vulnerable first.
It makes no sense to be vaccinating not vulnerable 39 year olds before all 49 or 59 year olds have been done first. That's sticking with the plan and if you look at the by age breakdown chart @CarlottaVance shared earlier it's worked.
Not only has the UK done double the booster jabs that any other comparable nation, but they've gone to the right people.
I deliberately didn't blame the government for the JCVI's prevarication (though I think they could have done more to address that). My point was that event with the delay the programme wasn't ready to go - less justifiable than it would have been if the approval had come quickly.
On the second, I'm not questioning the priority. As a 40-something 5 months past my 2nd dose, the implication of the last round of booster announcements was that I was eligible for a booster immediately (I can't remember the exact phrasing, but it was clear enough that I was checking for changes in the booking policy daily). A change to the plan was announced and it took several weeks to implement it. I'm sure you're right about your treatment as a 39 year old, but to pick your phrase I counted as "old and vulnerable" but couldn't get a booster for a few weeks in line with announced policy.
In case this sounds a bit grumpy, I also caught covid while waiting for that booster and haven't really had a great week as a result.
Please take this as a compliment but as a 40-something you're not classed as "old and vulnerable".
You might class as vulnerable if you are specifically a vulnerable group, but you're not old. The priority was to go through the age groups in order, starting with JCVI Groups 1-9 in order which 40-somethings are not in. Now you might be in Group 6 if you're vulnerable, but if you're not then you'd be in [from memory] Group 10 instead.
So just as it made sense for me to wait until you'd been offered yours, it makes sense sense unfortunately for you to have to wait until those in their 50s or 60s had been done first. And 50s had to wait until the 60s were done etc
So its not a lack of planning, its just waiting your turn. Very British system of queueing.
Its unlucky that you got infected while you were waiting your turn, that's unlucky. Hopefully you've made a full recovery now?
Yeah almost better thanks - first day out of isolation today, bit tired (but able to mow the lawn as mentioned upthread....). I guess an apparent 10 day recovery is my proof of being Group 10 not Group 6, though there would have been more enjoyable ways to validate that.
Well....Hugo says he asked, and they said definitely daily new omicron infections....i call bullshit on their model. They actually want us to believe we are running at 1 million new cases of covid per day at the moment. Lets say omicron is 40% rather than 20%, we still have to believe testing is picking up a tiny fraction of covid cases.....
UKHSA modelling suggests that the number of people who catch the Omicron variant in Britain today is likely to be around 200,000. If this is at all accurate it means the daily confirmed case count will inevitably pass its previous record before Xmas.
I mean if that's the case then we're surely in the clear or all fucked already? 1m cases per day is laughable.
Tbh it seems like so many of the models we have seen so far, my favourite being a circuit breaker will save anywhere between 600 and 109,000 lives in the next 3 months.....when with no vaccines and it ripped through the population, we hadn't had 50k dearhs in 6 months. The thought two weeks of lockdown could save 100k lives in 12 weeks is so laughable those people shouldn't be anywhere near mathematical modelling for the government.
If there are that many with Omicron it must be mild if the vast majority of that isn't translating into positive tests.
Mild....it must be so mild millions of people aren't going to even have a clue they have it over the next week and it will be through the whole population in a couple of weeks.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as flu jabs, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
Which kind of misses the fact that there have been continual vaccinations going on ever since last winter. First and second jabs for everyone, followed by and overlapping with jabs for schoolkids - many of whom are still only on their first jab - and then boosters. Certainly our local vaccination centre has never stopped.
Postcode lottery anecdote I guess, but our vaccination centres seemed to wind down August/September with boosters etc delivered just via GPs in early autumn. School vaccination programme literally didn't start in September or October. Walk-in vaccination centre for under 18s opened at the end of October 40 miles away (we were there on the first day I think). When booster booking opened up in November it was all for GP surgery appointments and not until late December - at the beginning of December some one-day special centres started opening in our town again.
We live in a fairly remote area, but I think this might be typical for those not living near larger urban centres.
Well I live in the middle of the Lincolnshire countryside. The vaccination centre is at Grantham which is not exactly renowned as a thriving metropolitan borough.
ATM I’m scared about what the Scottish Government will announce tomorrow. Particularly as they are a bunch of puritans who think that pubs, and those that use them, are sinful. I hope they don’t copy Norway,
I'm not sure exactly what additional restrictions already apply in Scotland, over and above those in England, but would I be right in thinking that the Scot Gov has gone heavy on masks but light on social distancing? In which case, reinstatement of the two metre rule and limits on social contact in indoor settings are obvious options. I suppose they might also bring in a curfew, which would necessarily force the closure of nightclubs.
Well....Hugo says he asked, and they said definitely daily new omicron infections....i call bullshit on their model. They actually want us to believe we are running at 1 million new cases of covid per day at the moment. Lets say omicron is 40% rather than 20%, we still have to believe testing is picking up a tiny fraction of covid cases.....
UKHSA modelling suggests that the number of people who catch the Omicron variant in Britain today is likely to be around 200,000. If this is at all accurate it means the daily confirmed case count will inevitably pass its previous record before Xmas.
I mean if that's the case then we're surely in the clear or all fucked already? 1m cases per day is laughable.
This 1 million figure is absolute horseshit. The actual known (sequenced) number of cases of Omicron are multiplying by around 1.5 per day.
In a week to a fortnight's time everyone in the country has covid. In a fortnight's time we're sequencing beyond that. Now we might be in the shit, but we're not that much in the shit.
In the right circumstances dull people can make ideal PM's. We're just used to very charismatic types these days and it may be that the times have changed so much that we can't cope without a song and dance man tripping the light fantastic.
Frothy PM's of my lifetime: Tony Blair, Boris Johnson
Serious and dull PM's of my lifetime: Jim Callaghan, John Major, Gordon Brown, Theresa May, Harold Wilson (to an extent), Margaret Thatcher, Ted Heath
Nowhere to place: David Cameron. Frothy on substance, serious in style. Quite the combo!
I don't agree with much of that at all. Blair (war criminality aside) was an impressive performer who knew how to read the mood of the nation. Harold wasn't far behind, and Thatcher (whom I detested) was smart enough to have advisers who advised her with perfect timing. Those three are Premier League.
Ted and Jim had something about them, but they were both not without their faults, both were arrogant and self-serving, which brings us to Cameron. He could have been Premier League but he was hoisted by his own petard. Championship.
Major, Brown and May were all First/Second Division. Solid, sensible and uninspiring.
Starmer is certainly not Premier League material but he could reach the heights of Ted or Jim should his opportunity arrive.
So what of Johnson? In my book he's Hackney Marshes Sunday League material.
Yep. Agree on Johnson. League of his own, no question. Absolutely different gravy.
Well....Hugo says he asked, and they said definitely daily new omicron infections....i call bullshit on their model. They actually want us to believe we are running at 1 million new cases of covid per day at the moment. Lets say omicron is 40% rather than 20%, we still have to believe testing is picking up a tiny fraction of covid cases.....
UKHSA modelling suggests that the number of people who catch the Omicron variant in Britain today is likely to be around 200,000. If this is at all accurate it means the daily confirmed case count will inevitably pass its previous record before Xmas.
I mean if that's the case then we're surely in the clear or all fucked already? 1m cases per day is laughable.
What is the positivity rate at the moment? - is it possible that stacks have it and are getting symptoms - so they are aware - but are testing negative?
Comments
I think that gets to what I was saying, only rather better in your case.
On the second, I'm not questioning the priority. As a 40-something 5 months past my 2nd dose, the implication of the last round of booster announcements was that I was eligible for a booster immediately (I can't remember the exact phrasing, but it was clear enough that I was checking for changes in the booking policy daily). A change to the plan was announced and it took several weeks to implement it. I'm sure you're right about your treatment as a 39 year old, but to pick your phrase I counted as "old and vulnerable" but couldn't get a booster for a few weeks in line with announced policy.
In case this sounds a bit grumpy, I also caught covid while waiting for that booster and haven't really had a great week as a result.
They left impressed by his tenacity on the internal clean-up job after Corbyn’s disastrous tenure (apparently something of personal mission given Keir’s family circumstances), but not at all convinced he has yet figured out a vision, let alone one he can sell to middle Britain.
Oh, and apparently Keir and Sir Ed are in regular contact. The tacit alliance is live and kicking.
There is absolutely no way there are 200k new omicron infections per day when they make up 20% of total cases....not when official stats are 50-60k cases and 1500.omicron. that would mean 1 million total covid cases, which is obviously bollocks.
Its estimated 200k new (all variant) cases per day, of which 20% are omicron, based off an iffy model.
1. Keep Brexit Safe (from the Remainer-in-Chief, Sir Keir Starmer)
2. Keep Taxes Low (after the pre-election income tax)
3. Keep Levelling Up (look at the money your Tory MP - and Rishi - spent on your town)
Arrive New Year’s Eve. I gloomily half-expect to land on the threshold of another lockdown. The censoriousness of New York seems to be quite different from licentious London.
I’m off to watch more Vintage Emmerdale Farm now. It’s my latest most favourite show.
🐂🐄🐖🐏🐑
Unlike others, I believe @HYUFD represents the unacceptable face of pure, undiluted Tory-ism.
"the UK Health Security Agency estimates that the current rate of, the current number of daily infections are around 200,000"
Daily infections has to be read as new cases, not total cases in circulation.
Whatever else he's on about he's definitely said "daily infections" and not "infectious cases" or "infections in circulation".
Norway is to enforce a total ban on the sale of alcohol in pubs, bars and restaurants for at least the next 4 weeks.
I’m largely doing it so the family can have an adventure and I can earn a bit more money.
Plus, I’ve no pretensions to being American so I’ll be less personally affronted by Trumpery than I have been by Brexit.
The dude needs a good editor and spin doctor.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/22/keir-starmer-essay-sets-labour-on-course-for-centre-ground
I don't know about you, but personally I am capable of understanding four separate points simultaneously:
1. We started jabbing earlier than France, and started boosting earlier (although of course we needed to start boosting earlier, because our earlier start on the first two jabs meant we were getting into the vaccine effectiveness waning earlier).
2. However, we squandered much of that advantage, in that we haven't completed the programme before midwinter, when we could have done.
3. It's now a race against time to get more boosters into arms, made much worse by Omicron.
4. Currently, France's rate of getting boosters into arms is much higher than ours, showing that it can be done.
Four whole points. I know it's hard, but if you really, really try you might manage it.
Ted and Jim had something about them, but they were both not without their faults, both were arrogant and self-serving, which brings us to Cameron. He could have been Premier League but he was hoisted by his own petard. Championship.
Major, Brown and May were all First/Second Division. Solid, sensible and uninspiring.
Starmer is certainly not Premier League material but he could reach the heights of Ted or Jim should his opportunity arrive.
So what of Johnson? In my book he's Hackney Marshes Sunday League material.
At the moment he has vague notions of reheated Milibandism, which the writer Phil Collins turned into a 14,000 magnus opus.
No mention that 40%+ of adults have had a booster.
And running cut'n'shut vids of all the Boris dodgy bits edited together.
And mentioning "compulsory vaccines in UK". I haven't heard that - is that the NHS staff one, or is there something else?
Also its the HSA model....the same one predicting a million omicron cases a day by the end of the year.....
Advisors advise but the JCVI were engaged in almost malfeasance by simply refusing to advise. They were refusing to give the government their advice.
I believe that ultimately Javid had to hurry them along threatening to change the setup if they refused to put their report in by a deadline. It shouldn't have taken Javid to do that to get them to do their job.
They have a warning out of backdated cases yet to come on twitter, but they backdated (750) today, so all a bit over the shop.
Note that in several recent polls, the shift to Labour is largest in the North...
Starmer would have taken all Boris's bad decisions without any of the good ones.
Sept 1st: France on Wednesday started administering booster shots of COVID-19 vaccine. France is the first big EU country to introduce widespread booster shots
https://apnews.com/article/europe-health-france-coronavirus-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine-5c89993c0c81d0e0ae2fa056ad9db0d7
Sept 16th: COVID-19 booster vaccine campaign begins in England
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/covid-19-booster-vaccine-campaign-begins-england-2021-09-16/
Your remaining points are spurious. We haven't squandered anything but are enjoying the benefits of a higher level of protection among vulnerable people. If it's a race against time, we've already won. France is having to go faster now because they messed up their initial rollout and are now suffering the consequences with a surge in hospitalisations beyond our level last February.
I know it's hard, but you really, really might try to keep your unthinking Francophilia under control.
You might class as vulnerable if you are specifically a vulnerable group, but you're not old. The priority was to go through the age groups in order, starting with JCVI Groups 1-9 in order which 40-somethings are not in. Now you might be in Group 6 if you're vulnerable, but if you're not then you'd be in [from memory] Group 10 instead.
So just as it made sense for me to wait until you'd been offered yours, it makes sense sense unfortunately for you to have to wait until those in their 50s or 60s had been done first. And 50s had to wait until the 60s were done etc
So its not a lack of planning, its just waiting your turn. Very British system of queueing.
Its unlucky that you got infected while you were waiting your turn, that's unlucky. Hopefully you've made a full recovery now?
More generally, there are examples of LOtOs turning their reputation around- Dave C was a standard issue chinless PR wonder before about 2008, and Maggie was only really seen as being up to the job after 1978 or so. Harder to think of a PM who, once their reputation breaks, meaningfully restores it. Maybe Maggie post-Falklands but I'm not sure even there.
7 day average to Dec 3rd - 48,144
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
Fuckin hell
https://www.cp24.com/news/there-is-a-myth-out-there-that-it-s-mild-head-of-ontario-s-science-table-says-of-omicron-1.5704993
The head of Ontario's Science Advisory Table is urging people to stop their "wishful thinking" when it comes to the Omicron coronavirus variant, adding that any suggestion that the COVID-19 variant causes milder illness is a "myth."
"This is historical. This is unprecedented. This week Omicron will become the dominant variant in the province... People cannot imagine the sheer scale of what we are talking about here. It is really challenging," Dr. Peter Jüni, the head of the province's Science Advisory Table.
According to the science table, the effective reproductive (RT) number for Omicron in Ontario is now 4.1, meaning that every 100 new Omicron cases will go on to generate 410 secondary infections. All other previous variants of the virus combined have an RT value of 1.32.
It is indeed the case that later dates are likely to be high, with cases currently growing (slower than the increase in testing). But my statement was correct, as you presumably started to realised whilst editing.
We aren't aware of all the information the Government has at its disposal - not so long ago, there were people on here claiming case numbers would collapse by Christmas.
Do you want the Prime Minister to ignore all the information provided, all the advice supplied and simply say "well, I was on this forum and they think I should do this"?
If this were a Black Death style event then we would have something about which to worry.
The government is poor and their advisors have been poor as well. It's the main reason we've had an uneven pandemic strategy over the last two years.
How is "middle aged attention seeking" different from the generation snowflake aka millenial or old codger variety?
I wasn't even making any point about France particularly. My point was about the UK. But if you want my opinion on how France's vaccination programme has been compared with ours, the answer is that ours has been very much better overall, especially the quick start a year ago, and also in prioritising key groups.
Or is that unacceptable Francophobia to say that?
UKHSA modelling suggests that the number of people who catch the Omicron variant in Britain today is likely to be around 200,000. If this is at all accurate it means the daily confirmed case count will inevitably pass its previous record before Xmas.
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1470475744673513472?t=T-AHIZWkiOA13As_uz6RAQ&s=19
If the government was really worried about large numbers of hospitalisations, then I'd expect them to be getting them ready for action - if only in a preliminary manner/
Millennials, also known as Generation Y or Gen Y, are the demographic cohort following Generation X and preceding Generation Z. Researchers and popular media use the early 1980s as starting birth years and the mid-1990s to early 2000s as ending birth years,
Happy to add in Gen Z, if you wish.
Feels far more plausible that Omicron can evade anti-bodies and still spread, but there is enough residual t-cell protection amongst the 95% of people with some level of protection that it's not going to progress to severe disease as much as the pre-immunity waves.
In a week to a fortnight's time everyone in the country has covid. In a fortnight's time we're sequencing beyond that. Now we might be in the shit, but we're not that much in the shit.