I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.
Starmer has taken a clear lead over Johnson on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister, although they are both behind “None of the above”.
Johnson 22% (-7) Starmer 29% (+2) None of these 35% (+4) Don’t know 13% (-1)
I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.
6 weeks ago I did a walk in in Woking.
What crime did you commit to suffer that punishment?
I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.
Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago). 1/
The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist. 2/
?????
Could be fucking great news
I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?
God let it be so
If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
I have had more dangerous curries
What a stupid fucking comment.
I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
I once got a burst haemmorhoid from crapping so hard after a terrible, toxic curry. Seriously. Not fun
Not only that, it was a curry at a restaurant once voted the 4th best in the world (just before Covid)
Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on
Well Mrs RP has the pox. I was in direct physical contact with her for hours overnight. I may or may not test positive when I get home or in the next few days.
My FFP2 mask stops me breathing whatever I've got or not got onto people on these trains I have been on all day. Their masks stop them breathing in whatever I might be breathing out.
Don't tell me masks are a waste of time.
i just have and I aint the one on a packed train all day - If you think this is a serious situation where you need to wear a mask all day maybe contributing to a packed train aint so good an idea?
You seem to be a twit. There is no serious science that I can see that disputes what seems intuitively completely obvious anyway, that masks reduce the risk of airborne infection both in and out. Do you have any rational grounds to think masks ineffective?
Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on
Well Mrs RP has the pox. I was in direct physical contact with her for hours overnight. I may or may not test positive when I get home or in the next few days.
My FFP2 mask stops me breathing whatever I've got or not got onto people on these trains I have been on all day. Their masks stop them breathing in whatever I might be breathing out.
Don't tell me masks are a waste of time.
i just have and I aint the one on a packed train all day - If you think this is a serious situation where you need to wear a mask all day maybe contributing to a packed train aint so good an idea?
You seem to be a twit. There is no serious science that I can see that disputes what seems intuitively completely obvious anyway, that masks reduce the risk of airborne infection both in and out. Do you have any rational grounds to think masks ineffective?
Given that Johnson's goose is surely cooked, what are your preferred picks (in order of preference) for replacement and hence next PM? I don't mean at the odds, I mean which would you prefer the most (or hate the least)?
"Bubble story" at the Glyndebourne Christmas Concert the conductor remarked that Good King Wenceslas Press Secretary had been on the phone to assure him that while Good King Wenceslas had indeed brought flesh, wine and pine logs to the peasant's abode there hadn't been a party, they'd complied with the regulations and had all been socially distanced. Much mirth.
Given that Johnson's goose is surely cooked, what are your preferred picks (in order of preference) for replacement and hence next PM? I don't mean at the odds, I mean which would you prefer the most (or hate the least)?
I'm going: 1) Hunt, 2) Sunak, 3) Mordaunt
For competent leadership? Hunt
For grins? Truss Eddie Mair: But what about the people who’ve changed their minds?
Liz Truss: I don’t think people have changed their minds.
Given that Johnson's goose is surely cooked, what are your preferred picks (in order of preference) for replacement and hence next PM? I don't mean at the odds, I mean which would you prefer the most (or hate the least)?
I'm going: 1) Hunt, 2) Sunak, 3) Mordaunt
Probably Sunak as he is (theoretically) the most dovish on restrictions. He would be the least shit of the three I suspect.
Given that Johnson's goose is surely cooked, what are your preferred picks (in order of preference) for replacement and hence next PM? I don't mean at the odds, I mean which would you prefer the most (or hate the least)?
I'm going: 1) Hunt, 2) Sunak, 3) Mordaunt
For competent leadership? Hunt
For grins? Truss Eddie Mair: But what about the people who’ve changed their minds?
Liz Truss: I don’t think people have changed their minds.
I do not think there has been a singled mainly political story that has cut through like this for at least a decade. Every single social event, and most work calls this gets brought up. When the prospect of further restrictions inevitably comes up there's a very loud portion of people asking why we should cancel events. Every person in this country has stuff they had to sacrifice in the second half of last year.
I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.
6 weeks ago I did a walk in in Woking.
What crime did you commit to suffer that punishment?
Being old. Quite impressed though. It was when the booster regime was a shambles and I hadn't been notified when I should have been. Just turned up and got it.
I am fearful that the Government are pressurised by the NHS to use Omicron as an excuse to lock us down, even if it turns out not to be serious, in order to keep old people at home so they don’t slip and fall over the winter, thereby reducing pressure on A&E. Also shutting hospitality to keep drunks out of A&E.
I don't even think it's that deep, it's just moving the national agenda back to COVID and lockdowns where Labour are impotent.
Does anyone know if you can still walk into boots and get free lateral flow tests on demand?
Just realised I better do one before the Balearics tomorrow. Out of courtesy
Probably not much help as it 's where the two-headed troll people live as far as you're concerned but there's a stand outside an empty shop near Barking Station where they hand them out and also outside East Ham library occasionally.
The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'
Which I of course do not have.
Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?
Just showed them the booking confirmation on my phone.
Given that Johnson's goose is surely cooked, what are your preferred picks (in order of preference) for replacement and hence next PM? I don't mean at the odds, I mean which would you prefer the most (or hate the least)?
I'm going: 1) Hunt, 2) Sunak, 3) Mordaunt
Assuming we are limited to plausible candidates, Hunt (some element of competence, moderately reality-based); Gove (seems to listen to experts when he doesn’t have pre-existing opinions); May (yes really - fundamentally unlikely to think that appeasing backbench should be prioritised over killing people).
Because of the selection process I’m betting on Truss (basically the opposite of all the good qualities listed above).
I do not think there has been a singled mainly political story that has cut through like this for at least a decade. Every single social event, and most work calls this gets brought up. When the prospect of further restrictions inevitably comes up there's a very loud portion of people asking why we should cancel events. Every person in this country has stuff they had to sacrifice in the second half of last year.
Yes, I think it’s had the biggest impact on party fortunes of any event since Black Wednesday. And As I recall Labour were pretty much nailed on for the next election from that point on.
I notice Starmer has a huge lead on net leader ratings and even on gross positives with yet another pollster.
Something is stirring.
This has a feeling of the election that never was in 2007
I'm not convinced - I suspect Christmas will dull the excitement and unless there's something spectacular in the Sunday press I suspect the heat will start to go out of the story in the next 10 days.
Is it a permanent and confirmed shift to Labour - on tonight's numbers Labour would have a majority assuming the SF MPs stay away on the current boundaries. On the new boundaries, close but not quite.
Assuming we are limited to plausible candidates, Hunt (some element of competence, moderately reality-based); Gove (seems to listen to experts when he doesn’t have pre-existing opinions); May (yes really - fundamentally unlikely to think that appeasing backbench should be prioritised over killing people).
Because of the selection process I’m betting on Truss (basically the opposite of all the good qualities listed above).
"The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."
VERY LOW LEVELS
Only a fortnight ago you were decrying me as “delusional” for merely suggesting such a thing. I still don’t know. But simply considering the prospect of a benign variant is - I submit - hardly delusional.
It may not be benign so much as it can't evade t-cells and b-cells from vaccine or infection based immunity. The most danger from Omicron is in those countries that have low vaccination rates, low natural immunity among the unvaccinated or both together.
NZ? Good luck St Jucinda - give you something to worry about beyond nannying around banning smoking
What NZ has done about smoking is entirely good sense and will be widely imitated
A very good friend of mine died of a brain tumour, a secondary of smoking-induced lung cancer. You really don't want 16 year olds having the right to choose to have that happen to them in their 50s.
Just think about that last sentence FFS - Jesus, anyway if I heard right it will be 24 year olds not being able to decide in a decade time what happens to them in their 70s - authoritarian crap
Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on
Well Mrs RP has the pox. I was in direct physical contact with her for hours overnight. I may or may not test positive when I get home or in the next few days.
My FFP2 mask stops me breathing whatever I've got or not got onto people on these trains I have been on all day. Their masks stop them breathing in whatever I might be breathing out.
Don't tell me masks are a waste of time.
i just have and I aint the one on a packed train all day - If you think this is a serious situation where you need to wear a mask all day maybe contributing to a packed train aint so good an idea?
You seem to be a twit. There is no serious science that I can see that disputes what seems intuitively completely obvious anyway, that masks reduce the risk of airborne infection both in and out. Do you have any rational grounds to think masks ineffective?
How often do ordinary people wear them correctly?
How often do people wearing masks fail to keep their distance, which is considerably more effective?
Even handed out Christmas presents, that is a bit of a pathetic criticism....
It does feed into my perception what has been going on, which is with all the pubs closed etc, all these teams have been working long hours and got into habit of having regular drink sessions in the office that would normally in the boozer.
"The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."
VERY LOW LEVELS
Only a fortnight ago you were decrying me as “delusional” for merely suggesting such a thing. I still don’t know. But simply considering the prospect of a benign variant is - I submit - hardly delusional.
It may not be benign so much as it can't evade t-cells and b-cells from vaccine or infection based immunity. The most danger from Omicron is in those countries that have low vaccination rates, low natural immunity among the unvaccinated or both together.
NZ? Good luck St Jucinda - give you something to worry about beyond nannying around banning smoking
What NZ has done about smoking is entirely good sense and will be widely imitated
A very good friend of mine died of a brain tumour, a secondary of smoking-induced lung cancer. You really don't want 16 year olds having the right to choose to have that happen to them in their 50s.
Just think about that last sentence FFS - Jesus
I am sorry I called you a twit. I now see that you are a complete and utter dweebish f----g c--t, trying to start a revolution from your mom's basement. Grow up and post somewhere else.
Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on
Well Mrs RP has the pox. I was in direct physical contact with her for hours overnight. I may or may not test positive when I get home or in the next few days.
My FFP2 mask stops me breathing whatever I've got or not got onto people on these trains I have been on all day. Their masks stop them breathing in whatever I might be breathing out.
Don't tell me masks are a waste of time.
i just have and I aint the one on a packed train all day - If you think this is a serious situation where you need to wear a mask all day maybe contributing to a packed train aint so good an idea?
You seem to be a twit. There is no serious science that I can see that disputes what seems intuitively completely obvious anyway, that masks reduce the risk of airborne infection both in and out. Do you have any rational grounds to think masks ineffective?
How often do ordinary people wear them correctly?
How often do people wearing masks fail to keep their distance, which is considerably more effective?
There are two grounds, right there.
Whether they are accurate is another question.
or that other countries that have had mask mandates have had higher rates of infection - Scotland,Wales to name two close to home
Boris is about to commit the biggest sin of all as a Tory leader. Losing a seat the Tories should in normal times hold easily (Even in a BE). There's no particular demographic with this one, as there was for Cheshire & Amersham.
Heads up: Broadcasting House , r4 9 am tomorrow, Ian Hislop on Boris's chances of turning things around.
I rate Hislop and he knows a fuck of a lot about Boris
You rate Ian Hislop?
The man who helped Andrew Wakefield spread his antivax MMR bullshit.
He has blood on his hands.
We all make mistakes.
He warned us clearly and unambiguously about Boris at times when a lot of people would have temporiseed on the basis that being in with Boris could do them a lot of good
I notice Starmer has a huge lead on net leader ratings and even on gross positives with yet another pollster.
Something is stirring.
This has a feeling of the election that never was in 2007
I'm not convinced - I suspect Christmas will dull the excitement and unless there's something spectacular in the Sunday press I suspect the heat will start to go out of the story in the next 10 days.
Is it a permanent and confirmed shift to Labour - on tonight's numbers Labour would have a majority assuming the SF MPs stay away on the current boundaries. On the new boundaries, close but not quite.
Boris is about to commit the biggest sin of all as a Tory leader. Losing a seat the Tories should in normal times hold easily (Even in a BE). There's no particular demographic with this one, as there was for Cheshire & Amersham.
BoZo reaches parts of the electorate other Tory leaders can't.
Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on
Well Mrs RP has the pox. I was in direct physical contact with her for hours overnight. I may or may not test positive when I get home or in the next few days.
My FFP2 mask stops me breathing whatever I've got or not got onto people on these trains I have been on all day. Their masks stop them breathing in whatever I might be breathing out.
Don't tell me masks are a waste of time.
i just have and I aint the one on a packed train all day - If you think this is a serious situation where you need to wear a mask all day maybe contributing to a packed train aint so good an idea?
You seem to be a twit. There is no serious science that I can see that disputes what seems intuitively completely obvious anyway, that masks reduce the risk of airborne infection both in and out. Do you have any rational grounds to think masks ineffective?
How often do ordinary people wear them correctly?
How often do people wearing masks fail to keep their distance, which is considerably more effective?
There are two grounds, right there.
Whether they are accurate is another question.
or that other countries that have had mask mandates have had higher rates of infection - Scotland,Wales to name two close to home
I thought Scotland's rate was slightly lower?
We're still AFAIK waiting for that promised report on mask wearing in schools, however.
"The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."
VERY LOW LEVELS
Only a fortnight ago you were decrying me as “delusional” for merely suggesting such a thing. I still don’t know. But simply considering the prospect of a benign variant is - I submit - hardly delusional.
It may not be benign so much as it can't evade t-cells and b-cells from vaccine or infection based immunity. The most danger from Omicron is in those countries that have low vaccination rates, low natural immunity among the unvaccinated or both together.
NZ? Good luck St Jucinda - give you something to worry about beyond nannying around banning smoking
What NZ has done about smoking is entirely good sense and will be widely imitated
A very good friend of mine died of a brain tumour, a secondary of smoking-induced lung cancer. You really don't want 16 year olds having the right to choose to have that happen to them in their 50s.
Just think about that last sentence FFS - Jesus
I am sorry I called you a twit. I now see that you are a complete and utter dweebish f----g c--t, trying to start a revolution from your mom's basement. Grow up and post somewhere else.
well unlucky for you I am not going to take your advise . Calm down
I don't see how Boris lasts until the next election. Which is a shame as he would be very easily beatable.
Isn't that the point? The remaining PB Peppa apologists bleat on about people being anto Boris as if we are doing it for partisan reasons.
The best way for Labour to remove the Tories is for Liar to stay in office. We all need rid of him because of the egregious damage his government is doing. Removing him and replacing him with someone not a tosser makes that job harder.
Boris is about to commit the biggest sin of all as a Tory leader. Losing a seat the Tories should in normal times hold easily (Even in a BE). There's no particular demographic with this one, as there was for Cheshire & Amersham.
If a seat like North Shropshire had come up in a by-election in 1992-97, is there any chance that the Lib Dems would have won it from third place?
Heads up: Broadcasting House , r4 9 am tomorrow, Ian Hislop on Boris's chances of turning things around.
I rate Hislop and he knows a fuck of a lot about Boris
You rate Ian Hislop?
The man who helped Andrew Wakefield spread his antivax MMR bullshit.
He has blood on his hands.
We all make mistakes.
He warned us clearly and unambiguously about Boris at times when a lot of people would have temporiseed on the basis that being in with Boris could do them a lot of good
There are different scales of mistakes, understandable/minor mistakes like rear ending your car into a another car or accidentally sleeping with your wife's best mate.
A mistake which spread antivax bullshit and lead to avoidable deaths is a the mark of Cain.
If you follow this lady's twitter feed her modelling shows that the worst case scenario - high immune escape and low booster efficiency - the number of deaths is unlikely to be above the peak last year although hospitalisations would be. And this is assuming that omicron is as severe as delta.
So if there is a worst case scenario of high immune escape/low booster efficiency and omicron is as severe as delta (all factors combined frankly unlikely) the government might need to consider mitigation measures to avoid the health service being overwhelmed.
Heads up: Broadcasting House , r4 9 am tomorrow, Ian Hislop on Boris's chances of turning things around.
I rate Hislop and he knows a fuck of a lot about Boris
You rate Ian Hislop?
The man who helped Andrew Wakefield spread his antivax MMR bullshit.
He has blood on his hands.
We all make mistakes.
He warned us clearly and unambiguously about Boris at times when a lot of people would have temporiseed on the basis that being in with Boris could do them a lot of good
There are different scales of mistakes, understandable/minor mistakes like rear ending your car into a another car or accidentally sleeping with your wife's best mate.
A mistake which spread antivax bullshit and lead to avoidable deaths is a the mark of Cain.
I read that poor Andrew Wakefield isn't dating Elle Macpherson anymore....
"The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."
VERY LOW LEVELS
Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.
(The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
Is it HO gauge? That's more accurate than OO gauge
That's furrin, will upset too many people here.
Protofour is really what the discerning rivet counter wants for GB (Ireland does not count, different gauge AIUI, but it's been written off Brexit wise anyway).
Assuming we are limited to plausible candidates, Hunt (some element of competence, moderately reality-based); Gove (seems to listen to experts when he doesn’t have pre-existing opinions); May (yes really - fundamentally unlikely to think that appeasing backbench should be prioritised over killing people).
Because of the selection process I’m betting on Truss (basically the opposite of all the good qualities listed above).
May would be spectacular!
Nobody going for Priti?
I've been saying #Priti4Leader since as long as I can remember!
Assuming we are limited to plausible candidates, Hunt (some element of competence, moderately reality-based); Gove (seems to listen to experts when he doesn’t have pre-existing opinions); May (yes really - fundamentally unlikely to think that appeasing backbench should be prioritised over killing people).
Because of the selection process I’m betting on Truss (basically the opposite of all the good qualities listed above).
May would be spectacular!
Nobody going for Priti?
Rory the Tory, as he is known in Scotland? Raab C. Brexit can be scratched, though: nem. con.
Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno
There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
Good to see the Lib Dems, if not exactly leaping into the teens in the polls, holding up at the 8-10% mark despite Labour advances.
9% when the Tories are weak is a whole different kettle of fish to 9% when they’re beating Labour. It’s a truth not universally enough recognised that Lib Dem success at GEs pretty much directly tracks Tory failure.
Conversely I get the sense the Greens do relatively well when Labour do badly. If Keir is touching 40% at the next election where should they focus their efforts? Are there any Tory-Green marginals (IoW perhaps?)
Heads up: Broadcasting House , r4 9 am tomorrow, Ian Hislop on Boris's chances of turning things around.
I rate Hislop and he knows a fuck of a lot about Boris
You rate Ian Hislop?
The man who helped Andrew Wakefield spread his antivax MMR bullshit.
He has blood on his hands.
We all make mistakes.
He warned us clearly and unambiguously about Boris at times when a lot of people would have temporiseed on the basis that being in with Boris could do them a lot of good
There are different scales of mistakes, understandable/minor mistakes like rear ending your car into a another car or accidentally sleeping with your wife's best mate.
A mistake which spread antivax bullshit and lead to avoidable deaths is a the mark of Cain.
I read that poor Andrew Wakefield isn't dating Elle Macpherson anymore....
Heads up: Broadcasting House , r4 9 am tomorrow, Ian Hislop on Boris's chances of turning things around.
I rate Hislop and he knows a fuck of a lot about Boris
You rate Ian Hislop?
The man who helped Andrew Wakefield spread his antivax MMR bullshit.
He has blood on his hands.
We all make mistakes.
He warned us clearly and unambiguously about Boris at times when a lot of people would have temporiseed on the basis that being in with Boris could do them a lot of good
There are different scales of mistakes, understandable/minor mistakes like rear ending your car into a another car or accidentally sleeping with your wife's best mate.
A mistake which spread antivax bullshit and lead to avoidable deaths is a the mark of Cain.
I read that poor Andrew Wakefield isn't dating Elle Macpherson anymore....
Final train of the day. 20 mins or so. It's rammed. Am in the vestibule with 5 others. We are all masked. So there is another reason why my FFP2 mask is required
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
Because Brexit is done and seats in the red wall want levelling up, which they were promised.
Boris is about to commit the biggest sin of all as a Tory leader. Losing a seat the Tories should in normal times hold easily (Even in a BE). There's no particular demographic with this one, as there was for Cheshire & Amersham.
If a seat like North Shropshire had come up in a by-election in 1992-97, is there any chance that the Lib Dems would have won it from third place?
Had it been before Blair became leaser, possibly.
From 1995 onward, Labour would have been the main beneficiary.
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
With enormous difficulty and the largest swing since the end of the Second World War.
But forcing the Tories into minority government isn't out of the question. That's more plausible and the Tories have few options for coalition partners if they lose their majority.
Can someone explain to me how Sir Keir wins the next election? I get Boris is in big trouble, but can anyone really see Sir Keir taking seats like Mansfield, Bassetlaw and Ashfield all Tory Leave seats with large majorities for leave. The Tories also have the boundary changes to push through. I still cannot see a Labour majority. But I could be wrong.
I think a less authoritarian popularist (to me this is not a bad word btw) challenge will be organised to the tories and this will cost them votes that lets labour in in a lot of these places probably on low turnout.
32% must be pretty close to the Tory floor under Boris
I would say 30-35% is the right wing absolute floor but possible for the Tories to go below this if they ship support to another right wing party like Refuk. As we saw under May with the Brexit party.
Comments
https://www.flightradar24.com/BAW268/2a272b12
I haven't noticed one of those come over since COVID started.
57% think he should resign (+9 from two weeks ago)
26% think he should stay (-5)
Full story: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/11/labour-races-to-nine-point-lead-in-polls-in-wake-of-sleaze-controversies-at-no-10
Johnson 22% (-7)
Starmer 29% (+2)
None of these 35% (+4)
Don’t know 13% (-1)
Changes on the 24 – 26 November. https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1469759817036275723/photo/1
26% think he should stay, down from 28% earlier in the week, and 31% a fortnight ago .
A third (34%) of those who voted Tory at the last election think he should resign. https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1469760126475243524/photo/1
Disapprove 48% (+10)
Approve 32% (-8)
Changes on the 24 – 26 November.
This is the government’s worst score on this question since January. https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1469760406948352006/photo/1
4th for “most memorable experience”
And they delivered…
I'm going: 1) Hunt, 2) Sunak, 3) Mordaunt
Just realised I better do one before the Balearics tomorrow. Out of courtesy
For grins? Truss
Eddie Mair: But what about the people who’ve changed their minds?
Liz Truss: I don’t think people have changed their minds.
Eddie Mair: You have.
Liz Truss: I have, that’s true.
https://twitter.com/MatthewStadlen/status/1469656580450926594
I notice Starmer has a huge lead on net leader ratings and even on gross positives with yet another pollster.
Something is stirring.
This has a feeling of the election that never was in 2007
Without them BoZo is impotent (for once)
Because of the selection process I’m betting on Truss (basically the opposite of all the good qualities listed above).
1) The Tories are a bit more ruthless than Labour
2) There's a sleazy stench around Boris Johnson that there was never with Gordon Brown, sleaze could play a part that wasn't an issue for Brown
Is it a permanent and confirmed shift to Labour - on tonight's numbers Labour would have a majority assuming the SF MPs stay away on the current boundaries. On the new boundaries, close but not quite.
Nobody going for Priti?
I rate Hislop and he knows a fuck of a lot about Boris
How often do people wearing masks fail to keep their distance, which is considerably more effective?
There are two grounds, right there.
Whether they are accurate is another question.
The man who helped Andrew Wakefield spread his antivax MMR bullshit.
He has blood on his hands.
CON 32
LAB 41
LD 9
Green 5
SNP 5
*It is the biggest lead, from Opinium, since March 2014*
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1469759064796246017
@michaelsavage @OpiniumResearch @ObserverUK 🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺
It does feed into my perception what has been going on, which is with all the pubs closed etc, all these teams have been working long hours and got into habit of having regular drink sessions in the office that would normally in the boozer.
There's no particular demographic with this one, as there was for Cheshire & Amersham.
Or, SKSICIPM
He warned us clearly and unambiguously about Boris at times when a lot of people would have temporiseed on the basis that being in with Boris could do them a lot of good
That feels like the tectonic plates shifting.
And not in a good way...
We're still AFAIK waiting for that promised report on mask wearing in schools, however.
It's like the DoH but with stupider people.
The best way for Labour to remove the Tories is for Liar to stay in office. We all need rid of him because of the egregious damage his government is doing. Removing him and replacing him with someone not a tosser makes that job harder.
A mistake which spread antivax bullshit and lead to avoidable deaths is a the mark of Cain.
https://twitter.com/BarnardResearch?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
So if there is a worst case scenario of high immune escape/low booster efficiency and omicron is as severe as delta (all factors combined frankly unlikely) the government might need to consider mitigation measures to avoid the health service being overwhelmed.
Labour would be 30% ahead.
Protofour is really what the discerning rivet counter wants for GB (Ireland does not count, different gauge AIUI, but it's been written off Brexit wise anyway).
Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno
There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.
9% when the Tories are weak is a whole different kettle of fish to 9% when they’re beating Labour. It’s a truth not universally enough recognised that Lib Dem success at GEs pretty much directly tracks Tory failure.
Conversely I get the sense the Greens do relatively well when Labour do badly. If Keir is touching 40% at the next election where should they focus their efforts? Are there any Tory-Green marginals (IoW perhaps?)
You can also get them delivered, of course.
1) Both wanted to be PM for decades and yet when they became PM there was a lack of drift, both went through SPADS at a phenomenal rate
2) The Brexit Deal being oven ready and awesome is Johnson's we abolished boom and bust moment.
From 1995 onward, Labour would have been the main beneficiary.
Boris is inept, but Raab makes Boris look like genius.
But forcing the Tories into minority government isn't out of the question. That's more plausible and the Tories have few options for coalition partners if they lose their majority.