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The week that the polls turned against the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different.
    How?

    I'm not doubting you, I just want to be clear. Turning up and being turned away would be gut wrenching, both personally and because that would mean somebody else couldn't get that slot.
    It people who have been specially identified for having a weak immune system...

    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/coronavirus-vaccine-3rd-dose/

    You won't get turned away for your booster. Initially they just didn't want people jumping the queue, wanted to make sure the very vulnerable got it.

    Now if you can book on the system you won't get turned away. I just had to say my name and that was it.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    edited December 2021

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different. 3rd dose is the term they use for thise who have been identified as immucomprised.
    That's my understanding as well. Those referrals are the extra doses given to people who have a compromised immune system, not the booster doses for everyone else. That group might even receive a fourth dose, as that's something that is being considered now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    glw said:

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different. 3rd dose is the term they use for thise who have been identified as immucomprised.
    That's my understanding as well. Those referrals are the extra doses given to people who have a compromised immune system, not the booster doses for everyone else. That group might even receive a fourth dose, as that's something that is being considered now.
    Thank you both. Well, all I can do is go along and see. It did at least let me book.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Booster shot appointments are now available for over 30s! Get in now before the official announcement!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    Too early to say. But today has been the most optimistic day of the last ten or so

    If my prediction of ~49k deaths over the winter proves to be insanely wrong I will not only gladly eat humble pie I will be grovellingly nice to IanB2, Farooq and kinabalu. For a day. Even tho they are c*nts
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    MaxPB said:

    Booster shot appointments are now available for over 30s! Get in now before the official announcement!

    I just have, on @pigeon 's information. Where did you find out, may I ask? It's reassuring if several people are hearing at once.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booster shot appointments are now available for over 30s! Get in now before the official announcement!

    I just have, on @pigeon 's information. Where did you find out, may I ask? It's reassuring if several people are hearing at once.
    My cousin who works for the NHS.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    MaxPB said:

    Booster shot appointments are now available for over 30s! Get in now before the official announcement!

    I strongly advise this!

    This is how I got my over-50 booster shot about two weeks before most of my peers. I did it on a Saturday as soon as news leaked out
  • glw said:

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different. 3rd dose is the term they use for thise who have been identified as immucomprised.
    That's my understanding as well. Those referrals are the extra doses given to people who have a compromised immune system, not the booster doses for everyone else. That group might even receive a fourth dose, as that's something that is being considered now.
    I linked to it below. I know as well because both my parents fell into this category.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    edited December 2021
    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
    Oh sorry, I thought you meant Pagel.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    An Alestorm enthusiast might respond

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th4Czv1j3F8

    nsfw

    ETA reswpond to him I mean not you
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    I still cant book online for my booster jab ffs. How they’ve handled group 6 for boosters has been rubbish. I’ll have to wait for after my surgery now and hope for some free time to go to a walk in
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booster shot appointments are now available for over 30s! Get in now before the official announcement!

    I strongly advise this!

    This is how I got my over-50 booster shot about two weeks before most of my peers. I did it on a Saturday as soon as news leaked out
    Despite not needing it as reputedly you’d suffered from covid three times already, and been patient zero for new variants reaching this country at least twice….
  • Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Definitely in SA yes. But that doesn't say much.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Undoubtedly in SA, where it started.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Huh....

    The United States pays its debts when they are due. That’s why today, I signed a bill to fast-track the process to raise our debt limit. https://t.co/Rx4MNC1XS9

    I think Joe you mean you haven't repaid, so need to take out more debt...

    Technically I think they are borrowing more to repay the old with interest

    If they couldn’t borrow more then they would default… it’s blame shifting
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    edited December 2021

    If Boris is pretty much destined to remain toxic for the rest of his term in office, then Labour winning back much of the Red Wall looks incredibly likely, as none of his prospective replacements would have his appeal there. In which case, I'd expect seats such as Blyth Valley, Durham NW, Darlington, Redcar, Burnley, Birmingham Northfield, Barrow, Leigh, West Bromwich East, to be won back by Labour at the next election.

    The Tories aren't stupid enough to go into the next election with Johnson as leader if it's obvious he'd be toxic with voters.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Plenty of Omicron deaths in SA.
    .
    However nowhere near as many as, say, Delta at the same stage. So far
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    MaxPB said:

    Booster shot appointments are now available for over 30s! Get in now before the official announcement!

    Ta muchly, managed to get booked for 23 December.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
    Oh sorry, I thought you meant Pagel.
    Well, my model consists of a 3 million lines of python I randomly borrowed from GitHub, 147 scientists brains in jars, and a lump of cheese.

    It predicts plus or minus 1 trillion cases before the end of the year. To the nearest trillion.

    I await the call to join iSage.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    Third doses vs ONS mid-2020

    image
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    dixiedean said:

    Is there an Opinium poll due out tonight? I was assuming so as the last was 2 weeks ago.

    There is and apparently one "not to miss".

    Hope you are well, Phil
    Who in their right mind thinks any opinion poll is "one to miss"?
    What is wrong with these people?
    I genuinely pity them.
    Nothing seems to set the agenda at the moment like a bad poll for the Tories. For that alone I don't understand why you find them unimportant. They could be instrumental in us getting rid of a poisonous Prime Minister!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    Andy_JS said:

    If Boris is pretty much destined to remain toxic for the rest of his term in office, then Labour winning back much of the Red Wall looks incredibly likely, as none of his prospective replacements would have his appeal there. In which case, I'd expect seats such as Blyth Valley, Durham NW, Darlington, Redcar, Burnley, Birmingham Northfield, Barrow, Leigh, West Bromwich East, to be won back by Labour at the next election.

    The Tories aren't stupid enough to go into the next election with Johnson as leader if it's obvious he'd be toxic with voters.
    Needs 54 to have the courage to move though?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
    Oh sorry, I thought you meant Pagel.
    Well, my model consists of a 3 million lines of python I randomly borrowed from GitHub, 147 scientists brains in jars, and a lump of cheese.

    It predicts plus or minus 1 trillion cases before the end of the year. To the nearest trillion.

    I await the call to join iSage.
    You are far too bright and well informed for that bunch of fucktards.

    Also far too nice a human being.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Undoubtedly in SA, where it started.
    No reason to think it started there. Botswana's a better candidate
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Would it be surprising if vaccines were ineffective against a virus strain that was itself weak?

    Again I am a onfirmed omicron dove but just putting this out there. Those who know their viruses can confirm/correct.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Plenty of Omicron deaths in SA.
    .
    However nowhere near as many as, say, Delta at the same stage. So far
    Yes, this is very instructive, in a population with high levels of natural immunity Omicron isn't having the same level of takeoff in hospitalisations and deaths as Delta did.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
    Oh sorry, I thought you meant Pagel.
    Well, my model consists of a 3 million lines of python I randomly borrowed from GitHub, 147 scientists brains in jars, and a lump of cheese.

    It predicts plus or minus 1 trillion cases before the end of the year. To the nearest trillion.

    I await the call to join iSage.
    You are far too bright and well informed for that bunch of fucktards.

    Also far too nice a human being.
    I just have a good understanding of my inner savage.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Undoubtedly in SA, where it started.
    No reason to think it started there. Botswana's a better candidate
    Yes there is reason. HIV

    It seems quite likely the variant evolved in a person with HIV unable to totally purge the bug. And SA has more HIV+ people than anywhere else on earth
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Undoubtedly in SA, where it started.
    No reason to think it started there. Botswana's a better candidate
    Yes there is reason. HIV

    It seems quite likely the variant evolved in a person with HIV unable to totally purge the bug. And SA has more HIV+ people than anywhere else on earth
    But it only takes one.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Undoubtedly in SA, where it started.
    No reason to think it started there. Botswana's a better candidate
    No reason, none whatsoever?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,149

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,899
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    An Alestorm enthusiast might respond

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th4Czv1j3F8

    nsfw

    ETA reswpond to him I mean not you
    Yep. Right in the balls.

    Would have been fun tonight at Brixton Academy. Glad I got to see them in Manchester last week.
  • I think I just heard Christina Pagel saying on BBC news that the 25k-75k deaths "model" takes no account of the severity of Omicron. So they presumably are assuming it is as deadly as Delta. When asked about the apparently low hospitalisation rate in SA, she put it down to the prevalence of prior infection and hence natural immunity. So the best case scenario is not a best case scenario.

    BiB: Thank goodness we had an exit wave over the summer then after we exited restrictions, eh?

    Just imagine how much worse this winter would be if we hadn't used the summer to maximise immunity.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    It’s some weird shit. I just checked the numbers before logging on to PB. I nearly fell off my chair (although I have had several glasses of Shiraz).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

    Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt

    Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?

    Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that

    But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed

    https://www.lemonde.fr/

    The UK seems to have got itself into a complete nonsense panic with Omicron. So far there's little to no evidence that it hospitalised any significant number of vaccinated or naturally immune people. The modellers are just randomly inputting numbers into their shit models to get the desired outcome of lockdown forever.
    I genuinely can't work out if we have lost our minds, or we are on the ball, and the rest of the world does not realise what is about to happen

    We are governed by retarded donkeys, the yflip flop all over except when filling their own pockets , they could not run a bath. We are well and truly fcuked till this lot are tarred and feathered and run out of town.
    Some truth in this.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
    Proper food poisoning is the worst.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
    I once got a burst haemmorhoid from crapping so hard after a terrible, toxic curry. Seriously. Not fun

    Not only that, it was a curry at a restaurant once voted the 4th best in the world (just before Covid)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Stocky said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Boris is pretty much destined to remain toxic for the rest of his term in office, then Labour winning back much of the Red Wall looks incredibly likely, as none of his prospective replacements would have his appeal there. In which case, I'd expect seats such as Blyth Valley, Durham NW, Darlington, Redcar, Burnley, Birmingham Northfield, Barrow, Leigh, West Bromwich East, to be won back by Labour at the next election.

    The Tories aren't stupid enough to go into the next election with Johnson as leader if it's obvious he'd be toxic with voters.
    Needs 54 to have the courage to move though?
    Limited courage as I don't think authors of letters are outed unless they out themselves (as 27 did in the May putsch)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46237174
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,149
    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    I think everyone has died from omicron.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    An Alestorm enthusiast might respond

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th4Czv1j3F8

    nsfw

    ETA reswpond to him I mean not you
    Yep. Right in the balls.

    Would have been fun tonight at Brixton Academy. Glad I got to see them in Manchester last week.
    Christ that is some devotion

    Do I understand your London trip was aborted?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different.
    How?

    I'm not doubting you, I just want to be clear. Turning up and being turned away would be gut wrenching, both personally and because that would mean somebody else couldn't get that slot.
    Read more about the different types of dose and who can book them online:


    1st dose information

    2nd dose information

    3rd dose information for people with a severely weakened immune system

    Booster dose information


    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/
  • Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
    I once got a burst haemmorhoid from crapping so hard after a terrible, toxic curry. Seriously. Not fun

    Not only that, it was a curry at a restaurant once voted the 4th best in the world (just before Covid)
    Any chance you can tell us where it is? (So we can avoid it.)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Undoubtedly in SA, where it started.
    No reason to think it started there. Botswana's a better candidate
    No reason, none whatsoever?
    Do you think there are unusually high amounts of relativity in the Bern area?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited December 2021
    tlg86 said:

    I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.

    You don't have to have your jab in the postcode you live, just try different postcodes on the online booking system, I bet you can get it earlier.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    edited December 2021
    Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
    I once got a burst haemmorhoid from crapping so hard after a terrible, toxic curry. Seriously. Not fun

    Not only that, it was a curry at a restaurant once voted the 4th best in the world (just before Covid)
    Any chance you can tell us where it is? (So we can avoid it.)
    There’s only one place that you can get them.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    tlg86 said:

    I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.

    The real PITA about the online booking system is that it has a page for "do you have any access requirements?", offering about 15 options... none of which are "I don't have a car".

    It's absolutely lovely that my nearest jab is in Buckingham, but given that getting there would involve 20 minutes on a train, then a walk across town, then a 1-hour bus journey, I might pass on that one thanks.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    tlg86 said:

    I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.

    You don't have to have your jab in the postcode you live, just try different postcodes on the online booking system, I bet you can get it earlier.
    I tried a few options but the ones further away were even later (January mostly). I'm not going into London for a booster shot.
  • ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
    Is it HO gauge? That's more accurate than OO gauge :lol:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    tlg86 said:

    I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.

    Yes, I booked near my parents house, loads of appointments, not as many around where I live. Will just work from there on my appointment date.
  • Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
    I once got a burst haemmorhoid from crapping so hard after a terrible, toxic curry. Seriously. Not fun

    Not only that, it was a curry at a restaurant once voted the 4th best in the world (just before Covid)
    Any chance you can tell us where it is? (So we can avoid it.)
    I suspect it's in his bum... that's where they usually occur.
    Thanks. But I wouldn't mind giving that curry house a go.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    Leon said:

    I am beginning to be actually, properly hopeful. This is probably unwise, but hey. It's Christmas


    "Omircon is now the dominant covid variant in South Africa, for at least 1 month. Covid deaths in South Africa have plummeted to lowest level since start of pandemic. Omicron is a blessing in disguise."

    https://twitter.com/gnuseibeh/status/1469735787491213312?s=20

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    On the face of it these two twitter posts are directly contradictory. Does that not give you pause?

    Maybe they're both citing different types of crap data?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
    I once got a burst haemmorhoid from crapping so hard after a terrible, toxic curry. Seriously. Not fun

    Not only that, it was a curry at a restaurant once voted the 4th best in the world (just before Covid)
    Any chance you can tell us where it is? (So we can avoid it.)
    Why not

    Gaggan, Bangkok

    https://www.theworlds50best.com/the-list/1-10/Gaggan.html
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Only a fortnight ago you were decrying me as “delusional” for merely suggesting such a thing. I still don’t know. But simply considering the prospect of a benign variant is - I submit - hardly delusional.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic

    It is quite remarkable in my mind but just to repeat what I have been saying for a while now, most recently last night.

    My attitude to all the main parties has long been one of a plague on all your houses. But with a long standing philosophical bias against Labour and socialism in general even of the Lib Dem kind. This has meant that whilst I have not been able to vote for the Tories for the past 2 decades at the same time I have always deep down been relieved when they won rather than Labour and fearful when they lost.

    Since Johnson and Starmer became the opposing leaders that has changed. Even in the 2019 election, whilst I couldn't vote Tory, at the same time I genuinely feared a Corbyn Government. Now that has gone completely. I am sure that as I am relatively comfortable a Labour administration would not be good for me personally and I am still very opposed to many of their more 'progressive' ideas. But I no longer fear them. I genuinely never thought there would come a day when I would be welcoming the fact that Labour were ahead of the Tories. I am today.

    Welcome to the dark side.

    I arrived at that point some years ago and even (briefly) considered voting for Corbyn, not because Corbyn was any use but simply because it was blindingly obvious to me that Boris was an utter prick surrounded by incompetents.
    LOL. Thank you. I know we still disagree on the issue of Brexit which I am still a big fan of but I should also point out that I have never supported nor voted for Johnson. I am happy to have clowns writing newspaper columns and appearing on topical comedy programmes but prefer them not to be anywhere near the levers of power - not even as MPs. (Although I realise many of them are clowns apart from Johnson). Corbyn was more frightening for me because he didn't appear to be a clown. If I have to be governed by evil authoritarian pricks I would actually rather they were incompetent at it.
    I don’t recall Corbyn ever projecting an aura of supreme competence, tbf?
    No but neither did he appear an outright clown in the way Johnson does. He was a poor leader, a man of conviction untempered by any practicality and a hostage to his own past. He also had a fundamental philosophy I could never support. But he never struck me as an out and out idiot in the way Johnson does.
    I suspect another difference is that Corbyn recognises his limitations, whereas Johnson doesn't think he has any. I'm no fan of Corbyn at all, but I do think he would have listened to advice and a wide range of views, for example on how to deal with the pandemic. If Johnson is the wayward shopping trolley, which he is, Corbyn would be a bit more seriously steadfast and consistent, I think.
    You are giving Corbyn way too much credit.
    No I'm not - as I said, I'm no fan of Corbyn at all. I was merely saying that Corbyn would not have been buffeted from side to side like Johnson is, and that he would have listened to wise heads during the pandemic, rather than thinking just about his own popularity, as Boris does. Corbyn would probably have been similar to Drakeford, in fact. You may not like what Drakeford has done during the pandemic, but his messaging has been a lot more consistent and less excitable than Johnson's.
    Under Labour the approach to precautions and restrictions to combat the spread of the virus would surely have been more consistent and timely. But the reservations fall into two areas:

    - the one good thing about the Tories is that they share liberals’ instinctive fear of over-powerful central government, whereas Labour would have revelled in imposing greater restrictions for longer, and we’d probably have people burning tyres in Trafalgar Square by now;

    - Labour’s disdain for the private sector would probably have hindered our vaccination programme. Whereas the Tories overshot by entrusting production of vital PPE to various mates of Tory MPs with business experience limited to being a pub landlord and whose medical experience was zero, Labour would have tried to manage and control everything within the public sector, with different but equally serious downsides.

    On your last point, I think you're saying that we wouldn't have seen the same level of corruption and cronyism under Labour. I agree.
    We wouldn’t, but equally they would likely have been less willing to find someone like Bingham and her team and let them get on with it without interference. OK, this happened because the scientists saw what an abject shambles Tory politicians had made of PPE procurement and said “not again”, but Labour might not have surrendered so meekly to this as Johnson did.
    That’s bullshit. Your timing doesn’t sync up.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    I am beginning to be actually, properly hopeful. This is probably unwise, but hey. It's Christmas


    "Omircon is now the dominant covid variant in South Africa, for at least 1 month. Covid deaths in South Africa have plummeted to lowest level since start of pandemic. Omicron is a blessing in disguise."

    https://twitter.com/gnuseibeh/status/1469735787491213312?s=20

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    On the face of it these two twitter posts are directly contradictory. Does that not give you pause?

    Maybe they're both citing different types of crap data?
    No, because the first referring to deaths per cases, and the second is referring to absolute deaths
  • Why is it, that when Leon expresses "cautious optimism" my own personal panic level starts soaring?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    An Alestorm enthusiast might respond

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th4Czv1j3F8

    nsfw

    ETA reswpond to him I mean not you
    Yep. Right in the balls.

    Would have been fun tonight at Brixton Academy. Glad I got to see them in Manchester last week.
    Christ that is some devotion

    Do I understand your London trip was aborted?
    Yep. Currently approaching Stonehaven on the way back north. Made it as far as York before having to bail out. Will enjoy* my 10 days in the clink and that's even if I don't get it off Mrs RP.

    Have got several friends in different parts of the country who also enjoy pints and piracy. Alestorm tour a great excuse to have fun with friends.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    No but was on my gp list (I had booked direct but then my gp texted and I could move a week earlier)

    But if you turn up they will do you as a walk in if that’s an issue
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Only a fortnight ago you were decrying me as “delusional” for merely suggesting such a thing. I still don’t know. But simply considering the prospect of a benign variant is - I submit - hardly delusional.
    It may not be benign so much as it can't evade t-cells and b-cells from vaccine or infection based immunity. The most danger from Omicron is in those countries that have low vaccination rates, low natural immunity among the unvaccinated or both together.
  • Why is it, that when Leon expresses "cautious optimism" my own personal panic level starts soaring?

    yes its a fault with reality - do not adjust your brain. Leon does optimism and pessimism but never cautious optimism
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    An Alestorm enthusiast might respond

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th4Czv1j3F8

    nsfw

    ETA reswpond to him I mean not you
    Yep. Right in the balls.

    Would have been fun tonight at Brixton Academy. Glad I got to see them in Manchester last week.
    Christ that is some devotion

    Do I understand your London trip was aborted?
    Yep. Currently approaching Stonehaven on the way back north. Made it as far as York before having to bail out. Will enjoy* my 10 days in the clink and that's even if I don't get it off Mrs RP.

    Have got several friends in different parts of the country who also enjoy pints and piracy. Alestorm tour a great excuse to have fun with friends.
    Bugger sorry to hear
  • Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
    I once got a burst haemmorhoid from crapping so hard after a terrible, toxic curry. Seriously. Not fun

    Not only that, it was a curry at a restaurant once voted the 4th best in the world (just before Covid)
    Any chance you can tell us where it is? (So we can avoid it.)
    If you google "haemmorhoid" pretty sure you'll learn where to find "it"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different. 3rd dose is the term they use for those who have been identified as immucomprised.

    For a booster, nobody asks for anything.
    Although technically it is a third dose not a booster… a booster is half strength and these aren’t
  • Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    The only thing that is concerning me is that it's saying 'If you have a booked a 3rd dose you will not be able to get vaccinated without your referral letter.'

    Which I of course do not have.

    Those people who have been jabbed - were you asked for it?

    That 3rd dose, not booster...they are different. 3rd dose is the term they use for those who have been identified as immucomprised.

    For a booster, nobody asks for anything.
    Although technically it is a third dose not a booster… a booster is half strength and these aren’t
    Yes I know. I linked to the exact details below.
  • MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Only a fortnight ago you were decrying me as “delusional” for merely suggesting such a thing. I still don’t know. But simply considering the prospect of a benign variant is - I submit - hardly delusional.
    It may not be benign so much as it can't evade t-cells and b-cells from vaccine or infection based immunity. The most danger from Omicron is in those countries that have low vaccination rates, low natural immunity among the unvaccinated or both together.
    NZ? Good luck St Jucinda - give you something to worry about beyond nannying around banning smoking
  • Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on

    Well Mrs RP has the pox. I was in direct physical contact with her for hours overnight. I may or may not test positive when I get home or in the next few days.

    My FFP2 mask stops me breathing whatever I've got or not got onto people on these trains I have been on all day. Their masks stop them breathing in whatever I might be breathing out.

    Don't tell me masks are a waste of time.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I am beginning to be actually, properly hopeful. This is probably unwise, but hey. It's Christmas


    "Omircon is now the dominant covid variant in South Africa, for at least 1 month. Covid deaths in South Africa have plummeted to lowest level since start of pandemic. Omicron is a blessing in disguise."

    https://twitter.com/gnuseibeh/status/1469735787491213312?s=20

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    On the face of it these two twitter posts are directly contradictory. Does that not give you pause?

    Maybe they're both citing different types of crap data?
    No, because the first referring to deaths per cases, and the second is referring to absolute deaths
    Indeed, they are complementary, not contradictory.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    An Alestorm enthusiast might respond

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th4Czv1j3F8

    nsfw

    ETA reswpond to him I mean not you
    Yep. Right in the balls.

    Would have been fun tonight at Brixton Academy. Glad I got to see them in Manchester last week.
    Christ that is some devotion

    Do I understand your London trip was aborted?
    Yep. Currently approaching Stonehaven on the way back north. Made it as far as York before having to bail out. Will enjoy* my 10 days in the clink and that's even if I don't get it off Mrs RP.

    Have got several friends in different parts of the country who also enjoy pints and piracy. Alestorm tour a great excuse to have fun with friends.
    Hope you escape it so that you are allowed out for Christmas.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,714
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone in the world actually died from Omicron so far?

    Whoops: just noticed someone else asked the same thing earlier, although just for the UK.

    Undoubtedly in SA, where it started.
    Is that known to be so? AIUI they were just the first to identify it.

  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    edited December 2021

    Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on

    Well Mrs RP has the pox. I was in direct physical contact with her for hours overnight. I may or may not test positive when I get home or in the next few days.

    My FFP2 mask stops me breathing whatever I've got or not got onto people on these trains I have been on all day. Their masks stop them breathing in whatever I might be breathing out.

    Don't tell me masks are a waste of time.
    i just have and I aint the one on a packed train all day - If you think this is a serious situation where you need to wear a mask all day maybe contributing to a packed train aint so good an idea?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Your not suggesting that the UK modellers 75k deaths in next 4 months might prove to be way out?
    On past form 7.5 deaths would be closer.

    (The .5 being another SeanT identity biting the dust...)
    My model is proving perfectly accurate so far.
    Is it HO gauge? That's more accurate than OO gauge :lol:
    I prefer 1:1 scale. Can be a bit difficult getting a 9F in my room, though ...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    I am fearful that the Government are pressurised by the NHS to use Omicron as an excuse to lock us down, even if it turns out not to be serious, in order to keep old people at home so they don’t slip and fall over the winter, thereby reducing pressure on A&E. Also shutting hospitality to keep drunks out of A&E.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    More reason for cautious optimism

    "Quick update on Covid hospitalizations/deaths in South Africa.

    "Last week's admissions are ~3,700. This week's are already over 4,200 and will be revised up to over 6,000, at least.

    "Deaths last week stand at 104, almost double previous week, and this week has seen 140 so far."

    https://twitter.com/BarclayBenedict/status/1469724928199073802?s=20

    Which sounds bad, but...

    "The number of deaths will be revised up, particularly for the current week, so will probably double again to 200-250. For now, these are still very low levels compared with previous waves, but not negligible by any means."

    VERY LOW LEVELS

    Only a fortnight ago you were decrying me as “delusional” for merely suggesting such a thing. I still don’t know. But simply considering the prospect of a benign variant is - I submit - hardly delusional.
    It may not be benign so much as it can't evade t-cells and b-cells from vaccine or infection based immunity. The most danger from Omicron is in those countries that have low vaccination rates, low natural immunity among the unvaccinated or both together.
    NZ? Good luck St Jucinda - give you something to worry about beyond nannying around banning smoking
    What NZ has done about smoking is entirely good sense and will be widely imitated

    A very good friend of mine died of a brain tumour, a secondary of smoking-induced lung cancer. You really don't want 16 year olds having the right to choose to have that happen to them in their 50s.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on

    Well Mrs RP has the pox. I was in direct physical contact with her for hours overnight. I may or may not test positive when I get home or in the next few days.

    My FFP2 mask stops me breathing whatever I've got or not got onto people on these trains I have been on all day. Their masks stop them breathing in whatever I might be breathing out.

    Don't tell me masks are a waste of time.
    Best of wishes to you both RP. Really hope she, and you in turn, are okay. Best vibes from me. x
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Booster shot appointments are now available for over 30s! Get in now before the official announcement!

    I just have, on @pigeon 's information. Where did you find out, may I ask? It's reassuring if several people are hearing at once.
    I saw it on here a couple of days ago!
  • Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on

    Well Mrs RP has the pox. I was in direct physical contact with her for hours overnight. I may or may not test positive when I get home or in the next few days.

    My FFP2 mask stops me breathing whatever I've got or not got onto people on these trains I have been on all day. Their masks stop them breathing in whatever I might be breathing out.

    Don't tell me masks are a waste of time.
    i just have and I aint the one on a packed train all day - If you think this is a serious situation where you need to wear a mask all day maybe contributing to a packed train aint so good an idea?
    1. You're talking laughable bollocks. You know better than the collected medics and virologists of course
    2. I was going to wear one all day anyway. Finding out hours in that I may be infected and must return home just reinforced why we wear masks.

    So, brain_go_away, glad to finally meet you Piers Corbyn.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Boris Johnson’s approval rating has nose-dived over the past week, with more people now disapproving of the job he is doing than at any other point in his leadership.

    Approve 24% (-7)
    Disapprove 59% (+11)

    This gives him a net score of -35, down from -17 a fortnight ago. https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1469759308380389376/photo/1
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Just had an A380 come over my house:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/BAW268/2a272b12

    I haven't noticed one of those come over since COVID started.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    A majority of voters now think that Boris Johnson should resign as Prime Minister...

    57% think he should resign (+9 from two weeks ago)
    26% think he should stay (-5)

    Full story: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/11/labour-races-to-nine-point-lead-in-polls-in-wake-of-sleaze-controversies-at-no-10
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Is the Opinium Labour lead big enough for HFUYD yet
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    tlg86 said:

    I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.

    6 weeks ago I did a walk in in Woking.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Starmer has taken a clear lead over Johnson on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister, although they are both behind “None of the above”.

    Johnson 22% (-7)
    Starmer 29% (+2)
    None of these 35% (+4)
    Don’t know 13% (-1)

    Changes on the 24 – 26 November. https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1469759817036275723/photo/1
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    kjh said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.

    6 weeks ago I did a walk in in Woking.
    What crime did you commit to suffer that punishment?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    kjh said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'm in Woking and the earliest I could get was 23 December. A friend in Hillingdon managed to get 13 December. I guess that's due to differential take up rates.

    6 weeks ago I did a walk in in Woking.
    Seems over 30s can book on the site now..
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    57% now think the Prime Minister should resign, up from 53% earlier in the week, and 48% a fortnight ago.

    26% think he should stay, down from 28% earlier in the week, and 31% a fortnight ago .

    A third (34%) of those who voted Tory at the last election think he should resign. https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1469760126475243524/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Approval of the way the government’s handling Coronavirus has also sharply declined.

    Disapprove 48% (+10)
    Approve 32% (-8)

    Changes on the 24 – 26 November.

    This is the government’s worst score on this question since January. https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1469760406948352006/photo/1
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Oooh, what's this?


    Prof Francois Balloux

    @BallouxFrancois

    Today's South African COVID-19 numbers are in, with a overall decrease in case numbers, despite a substantial increase in the number of tests performed, and a dramatic decrease in test positivity (-28% from yesterday; -45% from two days ago).
    1/

    The Omicron outbreak in SA with its extraordinary fast rise, and apparently nearly equally fast fall, is one of the most mind-boggling things I've ever seen during my career as an infectious disease epidemiologist.
    2/



    ?????

    Could be fucking great news


    I did wonder a few days ago if Omicron is a firework. A spectacular ascent, then boom, then an equally sudden fall?

    God let it be so
    If it is milder wouldn't it make sense for a higher percentage of cases to be asymptomatic?
    I have had more dangerous curries
    What a stupid fucking comment.
    I once got very serious food poisoning from a curry.
    I once got a burst haemmorhoid from crapping so hard after a terrible, toxic curry. Seriously. Not fun

    Not only that, it was a curry at a restaurant once voted the 4th best in the world (just before Covid)
    You must have misunderstood.

    4th for “most memorable experience”

    And they delivered…
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on

    Well Mrs RP has the pox. I was in direct physical contact with her for hours overnight. I may or may not test positive when I get home or in the next few days.

    My FFP2 mask stops me breathing whatever I've got or not got onto people on these trains I have been on all day. Their masks stop them breathing in whatever I might be breathing out.

    Don't tell me masks are a waste of time.
    i just have and I aint the one on a packed train all day - If you think this is a serious situation where you need to wear a mask all day maybe contributing to a packed train aint so good an idea?
    You seem to be a twit. There is no serious science that I can see that disputes what seems intuitively completely obvious anyway, that masks reduce the risk of airborne infection both in and out. Do you have any rational grounds to think masks ineffective?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Nobody cares about wallpaper...
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Will be the first time I have had to put on a mask tomorrow (for the booster) as the rest of the time I have not bothered and nobody has asked me to . Anyone who feels masks do f all and think they shoudl not be mandated then I woudl advise not to wear them as nobody is enforcing them which is understandable given everyone is having a gas in pubs without them but then think they will catch covid in a small shop so put them on

    Well Mrs RP has the pox. I was in direct physical contact with her for hours overnight. I may or may not test positive when I get home or in the next few days.

    My FFP2 mask stops me breathing whatever I've got or not got onto people on these trains I have been on all day. Their masks stop them breathing in whatever I might be breathing out.

    Don't tell me masks are a waste of time.
    i just have and I aint the one on a packed train all day - If you think this is a serious situation where you need to wear a mask all day maybe contributing to a packed train aint so good an idea?
    You seem to be a twit. There is no serious science that I can see that disputes what seems intuitively completely obvious anyway, that masks reduce the risk of airborne infection both in and out. Do you have any rational grounds to think masks ineffective?
    "We've had enough of experts"
This discussion has been closed.