So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
1st Jan when we take back control?
A perfect storm developing...
It's not control of course. Its out of control. We now require all paperwork doing up front. The half-way house that has been working and everyone has to learn a new way to prepare a lot more paperwork. The problem is that whilst we require the paperwork to be checked we have neither the people to check them or the facilities to park the trucks when they are checked...
No matter how much time they have, the Brexiteers never have enough time to address the real issues on the ground.
According to YouGov (subsample warning), the 2019 Con vote now splits Con 53, Lab 8, LD 3, RefUK 9, Green 1, others 3, wouldn't vote 5, don't know 19. for comparison Lab is 67 Lab, 3 Con, 2 LD, 6 Green, 1 RefUK, 1 SNP, 1 others, 4 wouldn't vote, 10 DK. LibDems 44 LD, 39 Lab, 10 Con, 6 Green.
Certainty to vote down to 69 for Con of CURRENT supporters (Lan 73, LD 57).
So more 2019 Tory voters still going RefUK than Labour, more 2019 Labour voters going Green than Tory and almost half of 2019 LD voters now voting Labour
Can someone please clarify the situation regarding Plan B. Is this still to be voted on? I assume so as there are 60 CP MPs against and opposition parties needed to get it over the line, though some measures have already come in. Is it solely the vax passport aspects that are being voted on?
It is all aspects being voted on in one next week, including Vaxports but it is the Vaxports bit which will provoke the biggest Tory rebellion against it
Can someone please clarify the situation regarding Plan B. Is this still to be voted on? I assume so as there are 60 CP MPs against and opposition parties needed to get it over the line, though some measures have already come in. Is it solely the vax passport aspects that are being voted on?
There is a vote on Tuesday before Parliament goes into recess. I assume that as well as Vaxports there will be some kind of enabling act as there will absolutely be a great deal more restrictions announced by the lying tosser before new year is here.
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
1st Jan when we take back control?
A perfect storm developing...
It's not control of course. Its out of control. We now require all paperwork doing up front. The half-way house that has been working and everyone has to learn a new way to prepare a lot more paperwork. The problem is that whilst we require the paperwork to be checked we have neither the people to check them or the facilities to park the trucks when they are checked...
No matter how much time they have, the Brexiteers never have enough time to address the real issues on the ground.
They aren't building them because in Brexiteer land there should be no restrictions or barriers. England should be allowed to do what it wants without regard to the international trading rules and the rest of the world should just say thank you.
Meanwhile in the real world the US is lifting Trump-era sanctions on the EU. As we have now left the EU we aren't included and our sanctions will remain in place.
F1: for Mr. Eagles, Ladbrokes have a double Verstappen/Hamilton DNF at 11. I'd be more inclined to back them individually, but there we are.
Edited extra bit: there's a weird one. Double DNF and Verstappen to win the title. The only way he doesn't is if he gets points deducted... possible. But a very controversial option when Hamilton got a 10s time penalty for ending Verstappen's British Grand Prix.
Is that right or could Hamilton win with a fastest lap point before both drivers dnf?
I believe to get the fastest lap point, you need to finish in the top ten, and therefore the points.
I agree North Shropshire could still be a narrow Tory hold. Voteshares something like Tories 40% LDs 35% Labour 10% RefUK 8% Others 7% is possible
I can't see the conservative voters of North Shropshire voting LD or Labour. I can see them sitting on their hands in great numbers. You may see a very low turnout as a result in which case you would have huge distortions to the figures for percentage shares. You might then see something extreme and unprecedented, like for example:
LDs 50%, Labour 20%, Ref UK 15%, Others (including Conservative) 15%.
This is not a prediction, but if I could find the appropriate market it would be the basis for a punt.
If I was a Conservative voter in North Shropshire then I would likely have long since voted by post. I might now be looking to see if there was some way of recalling my vote, but I doubt that is possible.
That's a plausible route for a Tory hold. The Opposition will need to turn out voters in large numbers to score a win.
Postal voters who return it straight away are much less likely to be potential floaters IME
I agree North Shropshire could still be a narrow Tory hold. Voteshares something like Tories 40% LDs 35% Labour 10% RefUK 8% Others 7% is possible
I can't see the conservative voters of North Shropshire voting LD or Labour. I can see them sitting on their hands in great numbers. You may see a very low turnout as a result in which case you would have huge distortions to the figures for percentage shares. You might then see something extreme and unprecedented, like for example:
LDs 50%, Labour 20%, Ref UK 15%, Others (including Conservative) 15%.
This is not a prediction, but if I could find the appropriate market it would be the basis for a punt.
If I was a Conservative voter in North Shropshire then I would likely have long since voted by post. I might now be looking to see if there was some way of recalling my vote, but I doubt that is possible.
That's a plausible route for a Tory hold. The Opposition will need to turn out voters in large numbers to score a win.
Postal voters who return it straight away are much less likely to be potential floaters IME
Yes. Postal voters are the core. So the people who have voted by post already for the lying turd would do so even if he took a dump on their lawn after shagging their daughter.
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
1st Jan when we take back control?
A perfect storm developing...
So by the new year we have: -Brexit chaos -war with Russia -3-0 down in the Ashes (I say "we", but that's more "you") -OMICRON, DESTROYER OF LEON'S HOOP or whatever it's called this hour -Tory leadership contest(?) -anything else?
Probably a worrying town council election somewhere?
So by the new year we have: -Brexit chaos -war with Russia -3-0 down in the Ashes (I say "we", but that's more "you") -OMICRON, DESTROYER OF LEON'S HOOP or whatever it's called this hour -Tory leadership contest(?) -anything else?
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
1st Jan when we take back control?
A perfect storm developing...
So by the new year we have: -Brexit chaos -war with Russia -3-0 down in the Ashes (I say "we", but that's more "you") -OMICRON, DESTROYER OF LEON'S HOOP or whatever it's called this hour -Tory leadership contest(?) -anything else?
But there will be Pigs in Blankets to buy.
I notice all the 'food shortages at Christmas' stories so eagerly pasted here have disappeared.
According to YouGov (subsample warning), the 2019 Con vote now splits Con 53, Lab 8, LD 3, RefUK 9, Green 1, others 3, wouldn't vote 5, don't know 19. for comparison Lab is 67 Lab, 3 Con, 2 LD, 6 Green, 1 RefUK, 1 SNP, 1 others, 4 wouldn't vote, 10 DK. LibDems 44 LD, 39 Lab, 10 Con, 6 Green.
Certainty to vote down to 69 for Con of CURRENT supporters (Lan 73, LD 57).
So more 2019 Tory voters still going RefUK than Labour, more 2019 Labour voters going Green than Tory and almost half of 2019 LD voters now voting Labour
Hm, same proportion of Tory voters going RefUK and Labour really within the likely error limits.
I notice all the 'food shortages at Christmas' stories so eagerly pasted here have disappeared.
My Dad went to the butchers last week to order beef for Christmas and was told they are not taking any more orders. Told to try again on the 23rd and see if there are any left...
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
1st Jan when we take back control?
A perfect storm developing...
So by the new year we have: -Brexit chaos -war with Russia -3-0 down in the Ashes (I say "we", but that's more "you") -OMICRON, DESTROYER OF LEON'S HOOP or whatever it's called this hour -Tory leadership contest(?) -anything else?
But there will be Pigs in Blankets to buy.
I notice all the 'food shortages at Christmas' stories so eagerly pasted here have disappeared.
I couldn't get baklava delivered by Sainsbury's on Thursday. They sent an iced xmas cake instead.
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
1st Jan when we take back control?
A perfect storm developing...
So by the new year we have: -Brexit chaos -war with Russia -3-0 down in the Ashes (I say "we", but that's more "you") -OMICRON, DESTROYER OF LEON'S HOOP or whatever it's called this hour -Tory leadership contest(?) -anything else?
Probably a worrying town council election somewhere?
And one of those complicated Scottish local authority elections where someone who got in 4th last time has been resigned, after standing originally as Slab, becoming Labour Unwhipped and then Tory, so we can all argue about what the change in voting really means.
I have been invited to a lunch party today. Would like to go. But mostly strangers.
Am triple vaccinated. Due to go back north later this week. If catch Covid have to isolate & also don't want to put Daughter at risk.
Mind you son meets strangers all day and comes home in the evening and have survived that.
Lots of hysteria and hyperbole about this new variant around - not least on here!
But seriously can I disregard or should I take precautions like this time last year?
The risk is limited and you would be out of isolation before the 25th but if it is mostly strangers, why take the chance? Fwiw at a social event earlier this week, we all took LFTs that morning but it is a bit late for your group to agree to that.
“ Vast majority of Britons have NO PROTECTION against Omicron: After 100 days two AstraZeneca doses offer virtually zero defence while two Pfizer jabs provide just 37% protection against new variant - but boosters cut risk of falling ill by 75%”
This is the simplistic nonsense that will lead us into lockdown before Christmas. Because our PM and Cabinet are too thick and poorly educated to understand why this sound byte is wrong.
Indeed it’s fascinating to read US news right now. Mainly it’s inflation, a storm that killed 2, Russia-Ukraine and abortion in Texas. Covid is being reported largely through the prism of the uk.
But wait I hear you say. The US had its head up its arse in Feb-March 2020, allowing for a historic one way trading bet for anyone aware of what was happening in Italy.
So let’s refer to the South African news. Some race issues, a retiring MP, Zuma, cricket, poaching… there’s a story about “trace levels of omicron found in Cape Town waste water” and another about the difficulty of enforcing any covid restrictions on the beach.
Either our country has gone entirely fucking mad. Or the whole lot of you doomcasters should stop wasting your time betting on a bye election and use every scrap of available liquidity to buy deep out the money NYSE puts with expiry about 6-8 weeks from now.
I don't trade stonks, I just buy companies I like and sit on them forever, or sometimes I let my cat pick them from the Nikkei listing page. But last time they were quite weird: Nothing happened for a while and we were all staring at them wondering why they weren't crashing, had the markets not noticed the incoming global pandemic or what. Then they finally did an almighty crash, and everything seemed to make sense, in a world where pb readers knew what was going on ahead of time but the rest of the world was dozy... but then they bounced back and proceeded to go to record highs.
I don't think just knowing what was happening in Italy would have got you to profitable trades. Working out that the market was going to shit the bed wasn't enough, you also had to know that it was going to unshit it.
I sold 90% or my equities in Feb2020 and bought back in in April and MY of 2020. I timed it pretty well. Not an easy one to repeat!
This time it is harder. We know that large sectors of the economy are actually pretty robust, so likely to be less affected by a massive sell off. There is also increasing pointers to stagflation both here and the USA. Investing for that prospect is quite tricky.
Yesterday's anaemic GDP figures, and the poor trade figures, with us falling further and further behind equally covid affected benchmarks also make stockpicking difficult. At the moment I am 95% equities but in ones not particularly exposed to UK Consumer spending.
The markets Santa rally seems particularly crazy at a time of Omicron, but as the saying goes, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Can someone please clarify the situation regarding Plan B. Is this still to be voted on? I assume so as there are 60 CP MPs against and opposition parties needed to get it over the line, though some measures have already come in. Is it solely the vax passport aspects that are being voted on?
WFH is presumably guidance rather than a legislated you must spend more time with your pets.
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
1st Jan when we take back control?
A perfect storm developing...
So by the new year we have: -Brexit chaos -war with Russia -3-0 down in the Ashes (I say "we", but that's more "you") -OMICRON, DESTROYER OF LEON'S HOOP or whatever it's called this hour -Tory leadership contest(?) -anything else?
But there will be Pigs in Blankets to buy.
I notice all the 'food shortages at Christmas' stories so eagerly pasted here have disappeared.
In other words, the drop in the Con vote is statistically significant, and they have seeped support to all other parties.
(The one thing that polls are very poor at measuring is “churn”, which is likely here.)
In the latest yougov 7% has gone to Reform who are level with the Greens
The vote could go to the murali_s rebel alliance party - who cares! As long the vile Tories are on the slide, it's all good. Hope the slides continues for a long while yet. We need proper change in this country and for the first time in a long time, there is hope...
However, I urge caution for my fellow progressives as there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge.
I agree with your last sentence
The fall in grace for Boris has taken less than a few weeks and we are well over 2 years away from the next GE
The demands from Starmer, Sturgeon and others for Boris to resign must have their crossed fingers behind their backs that he doesn't
It wasn't that long ago, around the time of the Hartlepool by election, that Tories were hoping Starmer would stay on, because they thought he was so bad.
I think Starmer should have Labour vote against. The proposals are the usual half-baked illogical bullshit, pushed forward against their own advice by an executive desperate to deflect against BJgate.
Vote it down, propose an amendment to extend the sitting, propose an amendment to recall if required inbetween Christmas and New Year. Because if we don't we know that Peppa will be issuing executive decrees where the prevention of disease is only part of the consideration.
Labour have confirmed their support publicly in the media
Yes I know. For me they are wrong. Not because they should support the anti-maskers inthe Tory party but because the new rules are a joke. Masky masky in Tesco but not if you are singing? Fuxsake who writes this nonsense?
It is the mandatory Vaxports for large events and nightclubs which will make the biggest difference and that is where the biggest Tory rebellion will be and that is also where Starmer will correctly back Boris to ensure it goes through
"correctly back Boris".
Only a deviated prevert backs Boris any more.
Actually clever politics from Starmer. By saving Johnson from his own back benchers he just emphasises how far apart they are drifting.
He'd never vote against anyway as Labour love this kind of state administrated control.
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
1st Jan when we take back control?
A perfect storm developing...
So by the new year we have: -Brexit chaos -war with Russia -3-0 down in the Ashes (I say "we", but that's more "you") -OMICRON, DESTROYER OF LEON'S HOOP or whatever it's called this hour -Tory leadership contest(?) -anything else?
But there will be Pigs in Blankets to buy.
I notice all the 'food shortages at Christmas' stories so eagerly pasted here have disappeared.
Just no one allowed to come round and eat them!
Time for the "unsold pigs in blankets backfill supply chains" crisis headlines?
Morning again. 'Been shopping', well, papers and Christmas Tree collected ..... well, Youngest Granddaughter will be visiting so need something more than our very little one. Everyone masked in various places. Pharmacy has run out of LFT's, so ordered on line.
I'm hosting a small u3a Group meeting early next week; no-one has (yet) backed off. Mrs C & I will do LFT's and unless there's a howling gale, ensure the room is well ventilated. However, other such meetings seem to be referring to Zoom.
Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson · 1h Striking divergence in Covid trends for under-20s and over-65s. Success of boosters had led gvt to rule out PlanB as recently as Tuesday.
In other words, the drop in the Con vote is statistically significant, and they have seeped support to all other parties.
(The one thing that polls are very poor at measuring is “churn”, which is likely here.)
In the latest yougov 7% has gone to Reform who are level with the Greens
The vote could go to the murali_s rebel alliance party - who cares! As long the vile Tories are on the slide, it's all good. Hope the slides continues for a long while yet. We need proper change in this country and for the first time in a long time, there is hope...
However, I urge caution for my fellow progressives as there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge.
I agree with your last sentence
The fall in grace for Boris has taken less than a few weeks and we are well over 2 years away from the next GE
The demands from Starmer, Sturgeon and others for Boris to resign must have their crossed fingers behind their backs that he doesn't
It wasn't that long ago, around the time of the Hartlepool by election, that Tories were hoping Starmer would stay on, because they thought he was so bad.
Heck, six weeks ago, Paterson had barely dropped and the Conservatives were sitting pretty.
Ahead in the polls two years in.
Some of what's happened has been the ongoing drift, but...
I notice all the 'food shortages at Christmas' stories so eagerly pasted here have disappeared.
My Dad went to the butchers last week to order beef for Christmas and was told they are not taking any more orders. Told to try again on the 23rd and see if there are any left...
The predictions of empty supermarkets reduced to a second hand anecdote about a local butcher.
The FO is not fit for purpose as evidenced in the select committee last week
Cutting headcount by 20% seems unlikely to help that. There's lots of room for savings though -> hire more locals abroad and be less generous with all the perks (free rent abroad, extra holiday allowances, free flights etc.)
Does sound like an example of any old primate species would do so long as it's got a blue rosette, but it was interesting that there is some resentment of the Tory candidate as an outsider.
I think Starmer should have Labour vote against. The proposals are the usual half-baked illogical bullshit, pushed forward against their own advice by an executive desperate to deflect against BJgate.
Vote it down, propose an amendment to extend the sitting, propose an amendment to recall if required inbetween Christmas and New Year. Because if we don't we know that Peppa will be issuing executive decrees where the prevention of disease is only part of the consideration.
Labour have confirmed their support publicly in the media
Yes I know. For me they are wrong. Not because they should support the anti-maskers inthe Tory party but because the new rules are a joke. Masky masky in Tesco but not if you are singing? Fuxsake who writes this nonsense?
It is the mandatory Vaxports for large events and nightclubs which will make the biggest difference and that is where the biggest Tory rebellion will be and that is also where Starmer will correctly back Boris to ensure it goes through
They will make no difference at all (save, perhaps, by sinking the businesses through imposing additional staffing burdens and driving away the fraction of the clientele that can't by arsed with the extra faff involved.) We've been running a massive experiment in differential restrictions - most notably in terms of masking, but also the limited use of vaxports and some residual distancing measures - all through late Summer and Autumn in this country, and there's little if any evidence that the stricter jurisdictions have done any better than England. Scotland is a little better off now and was a little worse off earlier on; caseloads in Wales and England have been moving in lockstep; Northern Ireland, which has been more cautious than Scotland, has uniformly high case rates in every local authority area.
Besides, IIRC there's a mechanism to get around the vaccination requirement with the use of self-certified LFT results as an alternative, which renders the whole scheme moot. You can just order a box of the things, report one of the strips as negative, and either ignore any inconvenient positive result or (more likely) simply throw it in the bin unused.
It's like with the masks. Let us put aside for one moment the argument over whether basic face coverings are much use, assume that they are really important, and then look at the wide range of exemptions, including the entirety of hospitality and all religious services. We are now meant to believe that a clothes shopping trip, where one merely walks past others browsing items on the rails, represents a threat to life and limb from a highly contagious, airborne respiratory illness, and yet choir practice or hymn singing, with a load of people all stood together bellowing at full volume for lengthy periods, is just fine. It's ludicrous.
What rules have been introduced are textbook something-must-be-done-ism. They are for show and not for any useful effect.
FPT it’s a very slippery slope when you start judging people for needing the NHS. When does it end?
@Leon guzzles booze like nobody’s business. That’s a positive act that is likely to be an NHS resource drain in the future. Driving a car at 120mph is also a positive act. Refusing a vaccine is an omission.
It feels profoundly wrong to force people to put something into their own body.
I say this as someone who has had an operation cancelled 3 times already due to NHS pressures. 4th attempt is currently scheduled for Monday.
Fundamentally it completely upends the relationship between the state and the people.
Government is chosen by the people to represent us. They have certain limited authority in the interests of an orderly society and certain rights to secure funding to meet the costs.
If an individual is unwilling to abide by the rules of society (the laws) then the government, acting on behalf of society, can exclude an individual from society. This means internal exile (prison) or external exile (loss of citizenship).
Government has no authority to enforce specific action against the individual without their consent. This is why, for example, the death penalty and mandatory medical treatment (including mandatory vaccination) is morally and philosophically wrong.
There is more of a case that an individual can be asked to pay for excess costs incurred (eg payment for treatment) if they don’t undertake certain actions (voluntary vaccination) although this should be on a retrospective basis rather than prospectively as a means to enforce behaviour change
You're talking here as if the concept of forcing people to do things they don't like in a time of national emergency is something new. It isn't.
We had mass conscription during both world wars and that involved, amongst other things, forcing young men to die horribly fighting pitched battles. Yet somehow asking the public to have a scratch on the arm two or three times a year to avert socio-economic collapse is deemed an unforgiveable violation of civil liberties.
We know that the unvaccinated are vastly over-represented in terms of the burden of Covid patients in hospitals - especially, crucially, in critical care facilities - and we know that the over-stretching of those facilities is the key motivating factor for imposing these hugely destructive lockdowns. Removing the problem of the unvaccinated therefore greatly reduces the likelihood of lockdowns - and doing that by compelling them to have the vaccines is a great deal more humane than the alternative, which is to restrict or exclude them from healthcare when they get sick.
Two fundamentally different things
Conscription is the defence of society to a threat.
Vaccination is really about resource allocation. One way to avoid the problem would have been to run an NHS with more spare capacity. Since we chose not to we have potentially insufficient resources to provide care to everyone.
We therefore need to make a decision about allocation of healthcare capacity. However that should be done within the philosophical framework of the citizen state relationship rather than overturning it simply because politicians are not brave enough to work through the consequences of their choices
On Gallowgate's post about trying to find a union to join, my question for any prospective union would be, 'What's your policy on Palestine?' If they've got one, ignore and move on.
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
1st Jan when we take back control?
A perfect storm developing...
So by the new year we have: -Brexit chaos -war with Russia -3-0 down in the Ashes (I say "we", but that's more "you") -OMICRON, DESTROYER OF LEON'S HOOP or whatever it's called this hour -Tory leadership contest(?) -anything else?
Half an inch of snow in north London, prompting a string of gutter press stories entitled "my granny's covid blizzard nightmare", and a mild enquiry in a Telegraph op ed as to whether, maybe, the PM's attention has lost its customary sharp focus.
I’ve been looking to see if there’s a union I could join for paralegals/legal workers. There is one it seems but its so overtly political and “comradey” on Twitter etc its very off putting. Sad.
Have a look and see what they have practically achieved v. what they spout on about. They seem to fall into two varieties on the ground - active in the protection of their individual members rights/case work; and active in broader politics but well aligned with management to give them personal job security.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
Problem is that the sea-change also requires the opposition to look as if they're ready for government - and Labour have some work to do on that front yet.
And here's a short video posted a few minutes ago with all the main candidates (but zero voters) - quite interesting. The RefUK candidate quite compassionate about Owen Paterson personally. The LibDem not very fluent, the Labour guy very professional, almost too much so. The Tory declined to be interviewed so they've got a YouGov clip of him.
Covid just keeps on throwing up little surprises that aren't explainable for months after they're seen - at best. It's been a little bu**er in that regard.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
Who knows:
Long period of Labour government ? Short period of Labour government followed by another long period of Conservative government ? Long period of alternating governments ?
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
Problem is that the sea-change also requires the opposition to look as if they're ready for government - and Labour have some work to do on that front yet.
I think though most would agree they are heading for that direction, not against it.
And after all, in 2017 they weren’t ready for Government and yet still caused a Hung Parliament. I am under no doubt Starmer will outperform Corbyn
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
Who knows:
Long period of Labour government ? Short period of Labour government followed by another long period of Conservative government ? Long period of alternating governments ?
I think it’s probably 2010 in reverse and then who knows
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
I think I'm with HYUFD on this one. Johnson going won't necessarily lead to an improvement in the Tories' fortunes. For whatever reason (and I find it baffling, but that's my problem), Johnson has, or had, a strong appeal to the white working class voters who delivered him the large majority in 2019. I can't see any other prospective Tory leader appealing to these voters in the same way.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
Problem is that the sea-change also requires the opposition to look as if they're ready for government - and Labour have some work to do on that front yet.
I think though most would agree they are heading for that direction, not against it.
And after all, in 2017 they weren’t ready for Government and yet still caused a Hung Parliament. I am under no doubt Starmer will outperform Corbyn
I voted Labour in 2017. I probably wouldn't have done, if I'd realised they'd get that close. I was actually planning to vote Tory for the first time in my life, but TMay's declaration that she intended to tear up human rights legislation in the wake of the London Bridge attacks meant I switched at the last minute.
Agree that SKS is heading in the right direction - just some way off the destination at present.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
I don’t know why anyone would make that assumption, particularly without knowing who would replace him. I do think your personal biases have been on display in recent days.
Starmer hasn’t magically turned into a master politician or fully convincing leader, and his party isn’t suddenly cleansed of the corbynite era dead wood. It’s just been as extraordinarily politically disastrous week or two for the government as anyone can remember, ahead of the week of the bank runs under Brown even.
Seems to me with a new leader and Cabinet, we’d be looking at something between the 2015 and 2017 elections, although of course it could also be 2010 in reverse, or if the wrong leader is chosen then 1979. If Boris staggers on to the next election then I think you’re right that it could be closish to 1997.
A double whammy for Liz Truss in @thetimes today from Matthew Parris and the leader column following her atrocious speech speech at Chatham House. As Matthew says, do read it to see for yourself to appreciate the depth of abasement of British foreign policy. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1469606410698858503/photo/1
Much of Truss's analysis is correct. And it is a bit of a bitter little diatribe from Parris.
FPT it’s a very slippery slope when you start judging people for needing the NHS. When does it end?
@Leon guzzles booze like nobody’s business. That’s a positive act that is likely to be an NHS resource drain in the future. Driving a car at 120mph is also a positive act. Refusing a vaccine is an omission.
It feels profoundly wrong to force people to put something into their own body.
I say this as someone who has had an operation cancelled 3 times already due to NHS pressures. 4th attempt is currently scheduled for Monday.
Fundamentally it completely upends the relationship between the state and the people.
Government is chosen by the people to represent us. They have certain limited authority in the interests of an orderly society and certain rights to secure funding to meet the costs.
If an individual is unwilling to abide by the rules of society (the laws) then the government, acting on behalf of society, can exclude an individual from society. This means internal exile (prison) or external exile (loss of citizenship).
Government has no authority to enforce specific action against the individual without their consent. This is why, for example, the death penalty and mandatory medical treatment (including mandatory vaccination) is morally and philosophically wrong.
There is more of a case that an individual can be asked to pay for excess costs incurred (eg payment for treatment) if they don’t undertake certain actions (voluntary vaccination) although this should be on a retrospective basis rather than prospectively as a means to enforce behaviour change
You're talking here as if the concept of forcing people to do things they don't like in a time of national emergency is something new. It isn't.
We had mass conscription during both world wars and that involved, amongst other things, forcing young men to die horribly fighting pitched battles. Yet somehow asking the public to have a scratch on the arm two or three times a year to avert socio-economic collapse is deemed an unforgiveable violation of civil liberties.
We know that the unvaccinated are vastly over-represented in terms of the burden of Covid patients in hospitals - especially, crucially, in critical care facilities - and we know that the over-stretching of those facilities is the key motivating factor for imposing these hugely destructive lockdowns. Removing the problem of the unvaccinated therefore greatly reduces the likelihood of lockdowns - and doing that by compelling them to have the vaccines is a great deal more humane than the alternative, which is to restrict or exclude them from healthcare when they get sick.
Two fundamentally different things
Conscription is the defence of society to a threat.
Vaccination is really about resource allocation. One way to avoid the problem would have been to run an NHS with more spare capacity. Since we chose not to we have potentially insufficient resources to provide care to everyone.
We therefore need to make a decision about allocation of healthcare capacity. However that should be done within the philosophical framework of the citizen state relationship rather than overturning it simply because politicians are not brave enough to work through the consequences of their choices
Vaccination in this case clearly is a matter of defence of society against a threat: that of the virus, and the consequences of its spread. But let's park that part of the argument and instead look at how this might be resolved through the prioritisation of resources.
If you take that approach then you can either do what the health service does at the moment, which is to treat Covid patients as the top priority and tell everyone else to get knotted (hence the constant stream of reports not only of vast numbers of older people in particular waiting in increasing levels of pain and disability for elective surgery, but also cancer patients being deprived of life-saving procedures because essential intensive care recovery capacity is full of largely unvaccinated Covid gaspers.) Or you can deny the anti-vaxxers some or all medical care, perhaps wheeling them into tents in hospital car parks, pumping them full of morphine and abandoning them to their fate, in order to free capacity for other cases.
I am not convinced that either of these approaches is practically or morally preferable to using compulsory vaccination to avoid or reduce the need for rationing.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
I think I'm with HYUFD on this one. Johnson going won't necessarily lead to an improvement in the Tories' fortunes. For whatever reason (and I find it baffling, but that's my problem), Johnson has, or had, a strong appeal to the white working class voters who delivered him the large majority in 2019. I can't see any other prospective Tory leader appealing to these voters in the same way.
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
1st Jan when we take back control?
A perfect storm developing...
So by the new year we have: -Brexit chaos -war with Russia -3-0 down in the Ashes (I say "we", but that's more "you") -OMICRON, DESTROYER OF LEON'S HOOP or whatever it's called this hour -Tory leadership contest(?) -anything else?
But there will be Pigs in Blankets to buy.
I notice all the 'food shortages at Christmas' stories so eagerly pasted here have disappeared.
Are you sure? I was sent out hunter gathering on my way home one evening this week. I selected the hated Tesco and although the shelves were reasonably full there did seem to be a spreading of facings rather than the variety I recall having seen there before.
And have you tried buying your favourite flavour of fat-delivery-conduit from Walkers? Pah- Brexit! (I'm joking, but I have the tin hat on just in case).
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
I don’t know why anyone would make that assumption, particularly without knowing who would replace him. I do think your personal biases have been on display in recent days.
Starmer hasn’t magically turned into a master politician or fully convincing leader, and his party isn’t suddenly cleansed of the corbynite era dead wood. It’s just been as extraordinarily politically disastrous week or two for the government as anyone can remember, ahead of the week of the bank runs under Brown even.
Seems to me with a new leader and Cabinet, we’d be looking at something between the 2015 and 2017 elections, although of course it could also be 2010 in reverse, or if the wrong leader is chosen then 1979. If Boris staggers on to the next election then I think you’re right that it could be closish to 1997.
Yes. We're a long way from the next election and are basically making blind guesses.
All I will say is that a big element of the 2019 Johnson victory appears to have been down to his not being Jeremy Corbyn and, in turn, the current uptick in Labour's fortunes probably owes a lot to Starmer not being Boris Johnson. If the leader changes then so, potentially, does that calculus.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
I think I'm with HYUFD on this one. Johnson going won't necessarily lead to an improvement in the Tories' fortunes. For whatever reason (and I find it baffling, but that's my problem), Johnson has, or had, a strong appeal to the white working class voters who delivered him the large majority in 2019. I can't see any other prospective Tory leader appealing to these voters in the same way.
That's the problem for the Conservatives.
Anyone not-Boris will make it hard for them to win; BoJo still does have the X factor for a slice of the electorate. And who out there is realistically better and ready to be dropped into No 10?
But stick with him, and the risk is that months like the last one will keep happening. Because that's who he is.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
I think I'm with HYUFD on this one. Johnson going won't necessarily lead to an improvement in the Tories' fortunes. For whatever reason (and I find it baffling, but that's my problem), Johnson has, or had, a strong appeal to the white working class voters who delivered him the large majority in 2019. I can't see any other prospective Tory leader appealing to these voters in the same way.
And have you tried buying your favourite flavour of fat-delivery-conduit from Walkers? Pah- Brexit! (I'm joking, but I have the tin hat on just in case).
Luckily there are any number of bespoke salt-substrate manufacturers that are superior in flavour and texture to Walkers.
My problem here Scott is rabid Brexiteer PBers have been touting Steve (Hard Man) Baker as a candidate for PM. By comparison Johnson looks like a safe pair of hands.
Well quite,
"Steve Baker" is the answer to the question "Which far-right, out-of-touch, dim, and rather odd MP do the Tories choose for leader if they want to face electoral wipeout?"
But just think of the Brexity mayhem that could be created prior to that electoral wipeout.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico Let's think a bit. Let's use these new vaxx efficacy numbers to update the collective immunity tables I've given you before.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 11h - Maybe in January encourage people to be specially aware of whether people around them are getting infected?
If any special effort is required to sombrero-squash, it'll be in a period of ~12 days, not months.
The trouble with that is that they are the ones out of tune with vaxports which have a high level of support in the electorate
They’re several years out from the next election and are voting with their consciences on an issue outside the manifesto. Providing political leadership rather than politics by focus group.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
When BoZo goes, it probably marks the end of the Brexiteer Government.
If the Conservative and Unionists can regain control of their party, then they could form another Government.
Are there enough of the latter left, after Mr Johynson's purges?
@Scott_xP will say no but of course there are and not only that there is no suggestion outside of the SNP that any party will support rejoining the EU at the next GE
My problem here Scott is rabid Brexiteer PBers have been touting Steve (Hard Man) Baker as a candidate for PM. By comparison Johnson looks like a safe pair of hands.
Well quite,
"Steve Baker" is the answer to the question "Which far-right, out-of-touch, dim, and rather odd MP do the Tories choose for leader if they want to face electoral wipeout?"
But just think of the Brexity mayhem that could be created prior to that electoral wipeout.
At least Johnson wouldn't have losing N Ireland on what passes for his conscience.
Anyone not-Boris will make it hard for them to win; BoJo still does have the X factor for a slice of the electorate.
The anecdata suggests that slice is narrowing though.
They thought he was a lad. Now they think he's a cad...
...his judgement is really very bad (and not just as an absent dad), his decision-making has been often mad, the electorate will realise they've been had, and Johnson will end up very, very sad.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
When BoZo goes, it probably marks the end of the Brexiteer Government.
If the Conservative and Unionists can regain control of their party, then they could form another Government.
Are there enough of the latter left, after Mr Johynson's purges?
@Scott_xP will say no but of course there are and not only that there is no suggestion outside of the SNP that any party will support rejoining the EU at the next GE
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
I think I'm with HYUFD on this one. Johnson going won't necessarily lead to an improvement in the Tories' fortunes. For whatever reason (and I find it baffling, but that's my problem), Johnson has, or had, a strong appeal to the white working class voters who delivered him the large majority in 2019. I can't see any other prospective Tory leader appealing to these voters in the same way.
Not these particular voters in the same way, but Sunak or possibly Hunt could provide election-winning alternatives.
Not Truss or Gove though. And probably not Javid though I'm not sure.
Tougher Covid restrictions may be needed to prevent Omicron causing anywhere between 25,000 to 75,000 deaths in England over the next five months, according to scientists advising the government.
We are following the same pattern as every other lockdown, the briefings, the leaking, the scary models....next the media will be asking every government official how can you accept 75k extra deaths....
Get stocked up on bog rolls, pasta and oven gloves because lockdown is coming.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
When BoZo goes, it probably marks the end of the Brexiteer Government.
If the Conservative and Unionists can regain control of their party, then they could form another Government.
Are there enough of the latter left, after Mr Johynson's purges?
@Scott_xP will say no but of course there are and not only that there is no suggestion outside of the SNP that any party will support rejoining the EU at the next GE
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
@MoonRabbit Moonrabbit , I will not be about today , busy again at my daughter's, but have spent 5 minutes looking at Cheltenham. My Trixie below. Lalor 5/1 13:50 Cheltenham Gelino Bello 7/4 14:25 Cheltenham Song For Someone 9/4 15:00 Cheltenham
Good luck to everyone.
Seen it now. Brilliant. I have a Malc horse and Stodge horse in my lucky15. 👍🏻
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Hell of a Scottish subsample especially with the footie referee inveighing against Mr J - but perhaps partly because of that.
We can largely dismiss Scottish subsamples now, because we have regular full-sample Scottish polls, correctly weighed. I only included the London and Scotland figures for completeness.
The real interest now is definitely Red Wall, and they never have proper polls, so subsampling is all we have.
Yes, Ross seems to dislike Johnson almost as much as Davidson.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The unknown factor for Rishi is just who would be in his cabinet as that would indicate his direction of travel
The Tories must be delighted, Khan once again bringing in more money for London
According to Transport for London, it is 70% less extra than he expected:
TfL said “early indications” were that the Ulez – which expanded to the suburbs on October 25 – would not generate as much cash as it hoped due to “greater compliance” with the rules.
TfL had predicted that about 135,000 cars and vans a day would pay the £12.50 levy as a result of their exhaust emissions breaching the new rules, while about 2,000 HGVs would face the higher £100 charge.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impact the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Tobias Ellwood is positioning himself quite well for a dark horse leadership bid in due course. Might be worth a cheeky punt if the Tories decide to turn back from the ERG version of Brexit in favour of something that might actually work.
I hesitate to tiptoe into the red blooded, throbbing forehead veined world of F1 but I just saw a clip of the Mercedes guy saying their partnership with Dyson next season will help with downforce - ‘It is going to suck us to zee floor like a vacuum cleaner’. Is this utter bullshit?
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Anyone not-Boris will make it hard for them to win; BoJo still does have the X factor for a slice of the electorate.
The anecdata suggests that slice is narrowing though.
They thought he was a lad. Now they think he's a cad...
...his judgement is really very bad (and not just as an absent dad), his decision-making has been often mad, the electorate will realise they've been had, and Johnson will end up very, very sad.
And many will relish the chance to kick him in the nad.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The unknown factor for Rishi is just who would be in his cabinet as that would indicate his direction of travel
Presumably Truss would be Chancellor. Hard to see a role for Patel. I suspect he’d call an end to the Tory Brexit wars. Elevate a Tugenhardt, bring back Greg Clark and Hunt types. Some new blood. Leave Javid where he is for continuity on such an important brief. Switch out JRM and find a role for a Steve Baker.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The unknown factor for Rishi is just who would be in his cabinet as that would indicate his direction of travel
Sunak's window is closing. He needs Johnson to fall quickly. The economy is going to hell in a handcart for the next year or two.
Comments
Meanwhile in the real world the US is lifting Trump-era sanctions on the EU. As we have now left the EU we aren't included and our sanctions will remain in place.
Big question coming for the Treasury.
Is OGH on holiday or not?
I notice all the 'food shortages at Christmas' stories so eagerly pasted here have disappeared.
Is there no end to the privations we must endure?
So perhaps it is just the vaxports.
He'd never vote against anyway as Labour love this kind of state administrated control.
I'm hosting a small u3a Group meeting early next week; no-one has (yet) backed off. Mrs C & I will do LFT's and unless there's a howling gale, ensure the room is well ventilated. However, other such meetings seem to be referring to Zoom.
Fraser Nelson
@FraserNelson
·
1h
Striking divergence in Covid trends for under-20s and over-65s. Success of boosters had led gvt to rule out PlanB as recently as Tuesday.
Updated daily on Spectator data hub: http://data.spectator.co.uk
Ahead in the polls two years in.
Some of what's happened has been the ongoing drift, but...
Events, dear boy. Events.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/the-blue-wall-falling-safe-tory-seat-up-for-grabs-amid-growing-voter-disquiet-in-north-shropshire-by-election/ar-AARHElX?ocid=uxbndlbing
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/12/abu-dhabi-pre-qualifying-2021.html
As I said, super tired so very glad the race is tomorrow.
Just like last year.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/
Besides, IIRC there's a mechanism to get around the vaccination requirement with the use of self-certified LFT results as an alternative, which renders the whole scheme moot. You can just order a box of the things, report one of the strips as negative, and either ignore any inconvenient positive result or (more likely) simply throw it in the bin unused.
It's like with the masks. Let us put aside for one moment the argument over whether basic face coverings are much use, assume that they are really important, and then look at the wide range of exemptions, including the entirety of hospitality and all religious services. We are now meant to believe that a clothes shopping trip, where one merely walks past others browsing items on the rails, represents a threat to life and limb from a highly contagious, airborne respiratory illness, and yet choir practice or hymn singing, with a load of people all stood together bellowing at full volume for lengthy periods, is just fine. It's ludicrous.
What rules have been introduced are textbook something-must-be-done-ism. They are for show and not for any useful effect.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
Conscription is the defence of society to a threat.
Vaccination is really about resource allocation. One way to avoid the problem would have been to run an NHS with more spare capacity. Since we chose not to we have potentially insufficient resources to provide care to everyone.
We therefore need to make a decision about allocation of healthcare capacity. However that should be done within the philosophical framework of the citizen state relationship rather than overturning it simply because politicians are not brave enough to work through the consequences of their choices
https://www.politics.co.uk/in-depth/2021/12/11/ive-had-enough-north-shropshire-by-election/
Long period of Labour government ?
Short period of Labour government followed by another long period of Conservative government ?
Long period of alternating governments ?
And after all, in 2017 they weren’t ready for Government and yet still caused a Hung Parliament. I am under no doubt Starmer will outperform Corbyn
Agree that SKS is heading in the right direction - just some way off the destination at present.
The Tories must be delighted, Khan once again bringing in more money for London
@JamesWard73
·
3h
if you were waiting for a signal of Omicron in the case data, I think
@UncleJo46902375
has found it:
Uncle John
@UncleJo46902375
Extraordinary 1
Pushing the gender files to the limit and only excluding last 2 days
London 20-24 + 94%, 25-29 +90%. Together more than ½ of extra London cases
Stop those freaking office parties now. WFH. Masks everywhere.
https://twitter.com/UncleJo46902375/status/1469560014717304839
If the Conservative and Unionists can regain control of their party, then they could form another Government.
Starmer hasn’t magically turned into a master politician or fully convincing leader, and his party isn’t suddenly cleansed of the corbynite era dead wood. It’s just been as extraordinarily politically disastrous week or two for the government as anyone can remember, ahead of the week of the bank runs under Brown even.
Seems to me with a new leader and Cabinet, we’d be looking at something between the 2015 and 2017 elections, although of course it could also be 2010 in reverse, or if the wrong leader is chosen then 1979. If Boris staggers on to the next election then I think you’re right that it could be closish to 1997.
We need to see where it goes.
If you take that approach then you can either do what the health service does at the moment, which is to treat Covid patients as the top priority and tell everyone else to get knotted (hence the constant stream of reports not only of vast numbers of older people in particular waiting in increasing levels of pain and disability for elective surgery, but also cancer patients being deprived of life-saving procedures because essential intensive care recovery capacity is full of largely unvaccinated Covid gaspers.) Or you can deny the anti-vaxxers some or all medical care, perhaps wheeling them into tents in hospital car parks, pumping them full of morphine and abandoning them to their fate, in order to free capacity for other cases.
I am not convinced that either of these approaches is practically or morally preferable to using compulsory vaccination to avoid or reduce the need for rationing.
Conservative MP, Tobias Ellwood says the government needs to “repair” trust with the British people, if they are going to bring in new COVID guidance.
Get #COVID19 updates: https://trib.al/oqKZkSu https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1469636560987594761/video/1
And have you tried buying your favourite flavour of fat-delivery-conduit from Walkers? Pah- Brexit! (I'm joking, but I have the tin hat on just in case).
All I will say is that a big element of the 2019 Johnson victory appears to have been down to his not being Jeremy Corbyn and, in turn, the current uptick in Labour's fortunes probably owes a lot to Starmer not being Boris Johnson. If the leader changes then so, potentially, does that calculus.
Anyone not-Boris will make it hard for them to win; BoJo still does have the X factor for a slice of the electorate. And who out there is realistically better and ready to be dropped into No 10?
But stick with him, and the risk is that months like the last one will keep happening. Because that's who he is.
Two farmers for example
They thought he was a lad. Now they think he's a cad...
North: Lab 45% Con 32%
Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35%
London: Lab 47% Con 24%
Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34%
Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/dpbft003db/TheTimes_VI_211209_W.pdf
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
Let's think a bit. Let's use these new vaxx efficacy numbers to update the collective immunity tables I've given you before.
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
11h
- Maybe in January encourage people to be specially aware of whether people around them are getting infected?
If any special effort is required to sombrero-squash, it'll be in a period of ~12 days, not months.
Not Truss or Gove though. And probably not Javid though I'm not sure.
Edit: Not meant seriously in the least.
Tougher Covid restrictions may be needed to prevent Omicron causing anywhere between 25,000 to 75,000 deaths in England over the next five months, according to scientists advising the government.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/11/omicron-covid-variant-could-cause-75000-deaths-in-england-by-end-of-april-say-scientists
We are following the same pattern as every other lockdown, the briefings, the leaking, the scary models....next the media will be asking every government official how can you accept 75k extra deaths....
Get stocked up on bog rolls, pasta and oven gloves because lockdown is coming.
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The real interest now is definitely Red Wall, and they never have proper polls, so subsampling is all we have.
Yes, Ross seems to dislike Johnson almost as much as Davidson.
TfL said “early indications” were that the Ulez – which expanded to the suburbs on October 25 – would not generate as much cash as it hoped due to “greater compliance” with the rules.
TfL had predicted that about 135,000 cars and vans a day would pay the £12.50 levy as a result of their exhaust emissions breaching the new rules, while about 2,000 HGVs would face the higher £100 charge.
This would have generated up to £2m a day, in a mixture of levies and £130 fines for motorists who failed to pay.
https://www.ft.com/content/6a51d95b-8b86-4cb3-b81d-fcbaf7b04933
(Edit: And even in 2005 Blair won an absolute majority of the combined England, Wales and NI seats).