Morning again. 'Been shopping', well, papers and Christmas Tree collected ..... well, Youngest Granddaughter will be visiting so need something more than our very little one. Everyone masked in various places. Pharmacy has run out of LFT's, so ordered on line.
I'm hosting a small u3a Group meeting early next week; no-one has (yet) backed off. Mrs C & I will do LFT's and unless there's a howling gale, ensure the room is well ventilated. However, other such meetings seem to be referring to Zoom.
Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson · 1h Striking divergence in Covid trends for under-20s and over-65s. Success of boosters had led gvt to rule out PlanB as recently as Tuesday.
In other words, the drop in the Con vote is statistically significant, and they have seeped support to all other parties.
(The one thing that polls are very poor at measuring is “churn”, which is likely here.)
In the latest yougov 7% has gone to Reform who are level with the Greens
The vote could go to the murali_s rebel alliance party - who cares! As long the vile Tories are on the slide, it's all good. Hope the slides continues for a long while yet. We need proper change in this country and for the first time in a long time, there is hope...
However, I urge caution for my fellow progressives as there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge.
I agree with your last sentence
The fall in grace for Boris has taken less than a few weeks and we are well over 2 years away from the next GE
The demands from Starmer, Sturgeon and others for Boris to resign must have their crossed fingers behind their backs that he doesn't
It wasn't that long ago, around the time of the Hartlepool by election, that Tories were hoping Starmer would stay on, because they thought he was so bad.
Heck, six weeks ago, Paterson had barely dropped and the Conservatives were sitting pretty.
Ahead in the polls two years in.
Some of what's happened has been the ongoing drift, but...
I notice all the 'food shortages at Christmas' stories so eagerly pasted here have disappeared.
My Dad went to the butchers last week to order beef for Christmas and was told they are not taking any more orders. Told to try again on the 23rd and see if there are any left...
The predictions of empty supermarkets reduced to a second hand anecdote about a local butcher.
The FO is not fit for purpose as evidenced in the select committee last week
Cutting headcount by 20% seems unlikely to help that. There's lots of room for savings though -> hire more locals abroad and be less generous with all the perks (free rent abroad, extra holiday allowances, free flights etc.)
Does sound like an example of any old primate species would do so long as it's got a blue rosette, but it was interesting that there is some resentment of the Tory candidate as an outsider.
I think Starmer should have Labour vote against. The proposals are the usual half-baked illogical bullshit, pushed forward against their own advice by an executive desperate to deflect against BJgate.
Vote it down, propose an amendment to extend the sitting, propose an amendment to recall if required inbetween Christmas and New Year. Because if we don't we know that Peppa will be issuing executive decrees where the prevention of disease is only part of the consideration.
Labour have confirmed their support publicly in the media
Yes I know. For me they are wrong. Not because they should support the anti-maskers inthe Tory party but because the new rules are a joke. Masky masky in Tesco but not if you are singing? Fuxsake who writes this nonsense?
It is the mandatory Vaxports for large events and nightclubs which will make the biggest difference and that is where the biggest Tory rebellion will be and that is also where Starmer will correctly back Boris to ensure it goes through
They will make no difference at all (save, perhaps, by sinking the businesses through imposing additional staffing burdens and driving away the fraction of the clientele that can't by arsed with the extra faff involved.) We've been running a massive experiment in differential restrictions - most notably in terms of masking, but also the limited use of vaxports and some residual distancing measures - all through late Summer and Autumn in this country, and there's little if any evidence that the stricter jurisdictions have done any better than England. Scotland is a little better off now and was a little worse off earlier on; caseloads in Wales and England have been moving in lockstep; Northern Ireland, which has been more cautious than Scotland, has uniformly high case rates in every local authority area.
Besides, IIRC there's a mechanism to get around the vaccination requirement with the use of self-certified LFT results as an alternative, which renders the whole scheme moot. You can just order a box of the things, report one of the strips as negative, and either ignore any inconvenient positive result or (more likely) simply throw it in the bin unused.
It's like with the masks. Let us put aside for one moment the argument over whether basic face coverings are much use, assume that they are really important, and then look at the wide range of exemptions, including the entirety of hospitality and all religious services. We are now meant to believe that a clothes shopping trip, where one merely walks past others browsing items on the rails, represents a threat to life and limb from a highly contagious, airborne respiratory illness, and yet choir practice or hymn singing, with a load of people all stood together bellowing at full volume for lengthy periods, is just fine. It's ludicrous.
What rules have been introduced are textbook something-must-be-done-ism. They are for show and not for any useful effect.
FPT it’s a very slippery slope when you start judging people for needing the NHS. When does it end?
@Leon guzzles booze like nobody’s business. That’s a positive act that is likely to be an NHS resource drain in the future. Driving a car at 120mph is also a positive act. Refusing a vaccine is an omission.
It feels profoundly wrong to force people to put something into their own body.
I say this as someone who has had an operation cancelled 3 times already due to NHS pressures. 4th attempt is currently scheduled for Monday.
Fundamentally it completely upends the relationship between the state and the people.
Government is chosen by the people to represent us. They have certain limited authority in the interests of an orderly society and certain rights to secure funding to meet the costs.
If an individual is unwilling to abide by the rules of society (the laws) then the government, acting on behalf of society, can exclude an individual from society. This means internal exile (prison) or external exile (loss of citizenship).
Government has no authority to enforce specific action against the individual without their consent. This is why, for example, the death penalty and mandatory medical treatment (including mandatory vaccination) is morally and philosophically wrong.
There is more of a case that an individual can be asked to pay for excess costs incurred (eg payment for treatment) if they don’t undertake certain actions (voluntary vaccination) although this should be on a retrospective basis rather than prospectively as a means to enforce behaviour change
You're talking here as if the concept of forcing people to do things they don't like in a time of national emergency is something new. It isn't.
We had mass conscription during both world wars and that involved, amongst other things, forcing young men to die horribly fighting pitched battles. Yet somehow asking the public to have a scratch on the arm two or three times a year to avert socio-economic collapse is deemed an unforgiveable violation of civil liberties.
We know that the unvaccinated are vastly over-represented in terms of the burden of Covid patients in hospitals - especially, crucially, in critical care facilities - and we know that the over-stretching of those facilities is the key motivating factor for imposing these hugely destructive lockdowns. Removing the problem of the unvaccinated therefore greatly reduces the likelihood of lockdowns - and doing that by compelling them to have the vaccines is a great deal more humane than the alternative, which is to restrict or exclude them from healthcare when they get sick.
Two fundamentally different things
Conscription is the defence of society to a threat.
Vaccination is really about resource allocation. One way to avoid the problem would have been to run an NHS with more spare capacity. Since we chose not to we have potentially insufficient resources to provide care to everyone.
We therefore need to make a decision about allocation of healthcare capacity. However that should be done within the philosophical framework of the citizen state relationship rather than overturning it simply because politicians are not brave enough to work through the consequences of their choices
On Gallowgate's post about trying to find a union to join, my question for any prospective union would be, 'What's your policy on Palestine?' If they've got one, ignore and move on.
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
1st Jan when we take back control?
A perfect storm developing...
So by the new year we have: -Brexit chaos -war with Russia -3-0 down in the Ashes (I say "we", but that's more "you") -OMICRON, DESTROYER OF LEON'S HOOP or whatever it's called this hour -Tory leadership contest(?) -anything else?
Half an inch of snow in north London, prompting a string of gutter press stories entitled "my granny's covid blizzard nightmare", and a mild enquiry in a Telegraph op ed as to whether, maybe, the PM's attention has lost its customary sharp focus.
I’ve been looking to see if there’s a union I could join for paralegals/legal workers. There is one it seems but its so overtly political and “comradey” on Twitter etc its very off putting. Sad.
Have a look and see what they have practically achieved v. what they spout on about. They seem to fall into two varieties on the ground - active in the protection of their individual members rights/case work; and active in broader politics but well aligned with management to give them personal job security.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
Problem is that the sea-change also requires the opposition to look as if they're ready for government - and Labour have some work to do on that front yet.
And here's a short video posted a few minutes ago with all the main candidates (but zero voters) - quite interesting. The RefUK candidate quite compassionate about Owen Paterson personally. The LibDem not very fluent, the Labour guy very professional, almost too much so. The Tory declined to be interviewed so they've got a YouGov clip of him.
Covid just keeps on throwing up little surprises that aren't explainable for months after they're seen - at best. It's been a little bu**er in that regard.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
Who knows:
Long period of Labour government ? Short period of Labour government followed by another long period of Conservative government ? Long period of alternating governments ?
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
Problem is that the sea-change also requires the opposition to look as if they're ready for government - and Labour have some work to do on that front yet.
I think though most would agree they are heading for that direction, not against it.
And after all, in 2017 they weren’t ready for Government and yet still caused a Hung Parliament. I am under no doubt Starmer will outperform Corbyn
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
Who knows:
Long period of Labour government ? Short period of Labour government followed by another long period of Conservative government ? Long period of alternating governments ?
I think it’s probably 2010 in reverse and then who knows
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
I think I'm with HYUFD on this one. Johnson going won't necessarily lead to an improvement in the Tories' fortunes. For whatever reason (and I find it baffling, but that's my problem), Johnson has, or had, a strong appeal to the white working class voters who delivered him the large majority in 2019. I can't see any other prospective Tory leader appealing to these voters in the same way.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
Problem is that the sea-change also requires the opposition to look as if they're ready for government - and Labour have some work to do on that front yet.
I think though most would agree they are heading for that direction, not against it.
And after all, in 2017 they weren’t ready for Government and yet still caused a Hung Parliament. I am under no doubt Starmer will outperform Corbyn
I voted Labour in 2017. I probably wouldn't have done, if I'd realised they'd get that close. I was actually planning to vote Tory for the first time in my life, but TMay's declaration that she intended to tear up human rights legislation in the wake of the London Bridge attacks meant I switched at the last minute.
Agree that SKS is heading in the right direction - just some way off the destination at present.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
I don’t know why anyone would make that assumption, particularly without knowing who would replace him. I do think your personal biases have been on display in recent days.
Starmer hasn’t magically turned into a master politician or fully convincing leader, and his party isn’t suddenly cleansed of the corbynite era dead wood. It’s just been as extraordinarily politically disastrous week or two for the government as anyone can remember, ahead of the week of the bank runs under Brown even.
Seems to me with a new leader and Cabinet, we’d be looking at something between the 2015 and 2017 elections, although of course it could also be 2010 in reverse, or if the wrong leader is chosen then 1979. If Boris staggers on to the next election then I think you’re right that it could be closish to 1997.
A double whammy for Liz Truss in @thetimes today from Matthew Parris and the leader column following her atrocious speech speech at Chatham House. As Matthew says, do read it to see for yourself to appreciate the depth of abasement of British foreign policy. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1469606410698858503/photo/1
Much of Truss's analysis is correct. And it is a bit of a bitter little diatribe from Parris.
FPT it’s a very slippery slope when you start judging people for needing the NHS. When does it end?
@Leon guzzles booze like nobody’s business. That’s a positive act that is likely to be an NHS resource drain in the future. Driving a car at 120mph is also a positive act. Refusing a vaccine is an omission.
It feels profoundly wrong to force people to put something into their own body.
I say this as someone who has had an operation cancelled 3 times already due to NHS pressures. 4th attempt is currently scheduled for Monday.
Fundamentally it completely upends the relationship between the state and the people.
Government is chosen by the people to represent us. They have certain limited authority in the interests of an orderly society and certain rights to secure funding to meet the costs.
If an individual is unwilling to abide by the rules of society (the laws) then the government, acting on behalf of society, can exclude an individual from society. This means internal exile (prison) or external exile (loss of citizenship).
Government has no authority to enforce specific action against the individual without their consent. This is why, for example, the death penalty and mandatory medical treatment (including mandatory vaccination) is morally and philosophically wrong.
There is more of a case that an individual can be asked to pay for excess costs incurred (eg payment for treatment) if they don’t undertake certain actions (voluntary vaccination) although this should be on a retrospective basis rather than prospectively as a means to enforce behaviour change
You're talking here as if the concept of forcing people to do things they don't like in a time of national emergency is something new. It isn't.
We had mass conscription during both world wars and that involved, amongst other things, forcing young men to die horribly fighting pitched battles. Yet somehow asking the public to have a scratch on the arm two or three times a year to avert socio-economic collapse is deemed an unforgiveable violation of civil liberties.
We know that the unvaccinated are vastly over-represented in terms of the burden of Covid patients in hospitals - especially, crucially, in critical care facilities - and we know that the over-stretching of those facilities is the key motivating factor for imposing these hugely destructive lockdowns. Removing the problem of the unvaccinated therefore greatly reduces the likelihood of lockdowns - and doing that by compelling them to have the vaccines is a great deal more humane than the alternative, which is to restrict or exclude them from healthcare when they get sick.
Two fundamentally different things
Conscription is the defence of society to a threat.
Vaccination is really about resource allocation. One way to avoid the problem would have been to run an NHS with more spare capacity. Since we chose not to we have potentially insufficient resources to provide care to everyone.
We therefore need to make a decision about allocation of healthcare capacity. However that should be done within the philosophical framework of the citizen state relationship rather than overturning it simply because politicians are not brave enough to work through the consequences of their choices
Vaccination in this case clearly is a matter of defence of society against a threat: that of the virus, and the consequences of its spread. But let's park that part of the argument and instead look at how this might be resolved through the prioritisation of resources.
If you take that approach then you can either do what the health service does at the moment, which is to treat Covid patients as the top priority and tell everyone else to get knotted (hence the constant stream of reports not only of vast numbers of older people in particular waiting in increasing levels of pain and disability for elective surgery, but also cancer patients being deprived of life-saving procedures because essential intensive care recovery capacity is full of largely unvaccinated Covid gaspers.) Or you can deny the anti-vaxxers some or all medical care, perhaps wheeling them into tents in hospital car parks, pumping them full of morphine and abandoning them to their fate, in order to free capacity for other cases.
I am not convinced that either of these approaches is practically or morally preferable to using compulsory vaccination to avoid or reduce the need for rationing.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
I think I'm with HYUFD on this one. Johnson going won't necessarily lead to an improvement in the Tories' fortunes. For whatever reason (and I find it baffling, but that's my problem), Johnson has, or had, a strong appeal to the white working class voters who delivered him the large majority in 2019. I can't see any other prospective Tory leader appealing to these voters in the same way.
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
1st Jan when we take back control?
A perfect storm developing...
So by the new year we have: -Brexit chaos -war with Russia -3-0 down in the Ashes (I say "we", but that's more "you") -OMICRON, DESTROYER OF LEON'S HOOP or whatever it's called this hour -Tory leadership contest(?) -anything else?
But there will be Pigs in Blankets to buy.
I notice all the 'food shortages at Christmas' stories so eagerly pasted here have disappeared.
Are you sure? I was sent out hunter gathering on my way home one evening this week. I selected the hated Tesco and although the shelves were reasonably full there did seem to be a spreading of facings rather than the variety I recall having seen there before.
And have you tried buying your favourite flavour of fat-delivery-conduit from Walkers? Pah- Brexit! (I'm joking, but I have the tin hat on just in case).
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
I don’t know why anyone would make that assumption, particularly without knowing who would replace him. I do think your personal biases have been on display in recent days.
Starmer hasn’t magically turned into a master politician or fully convincing leader, and his party isn’t suddenly cleansed of the corbynite era dead wood. It’s just been as extraordinarily politically disastrous week or two for the government as anyone can remember, ahead of the week of the bank runs under Brown even.
Seems to me with a new leader and Cabinet, we’d be looking at something between the 2015 and 2017 elections, although of course it could also be 2010 in reverse, or if the wrong leader is chosen then 1979. If Boris staggers on to the next election then I think you’re right that it could be closish to 1997.
Yes. We're a long way from the next election and are basically making blind guesses.
All I will say is that a big element of the 2019 Johnson victory appears to have been down to his not being Jeremy Corbyn and, in turn, the current uptick in Labour's fortunes probably owes a lot to Starmer not being Boris Johnson. If the leader changes then so, potentially, does that calculus.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
I think I'm with HYUFD on this one. Johnson going won't necessarily lead to an improvement in the Tories' fortunes. For whatever reason (and I find it baffling, but that's my problem), Johnson has, or had, a strong appeal to the white working class voters who delivered him the large majority in 2019. I can't see any other prospective Tory leader appealing to these voters in the same way.
That's the problem for the Conservatives.
Anyone not-Boris will make it hard for them to win; BoJo still does have the X factor for a slice of the electorate. And who out there is realistically better and ready to be dropped into No 10?
But stick with him, and the risk is that months like the last one will keep happening. Because that's who he is.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
I think I'm with HYUFD on this one. Johnson going won't necessarily lead to an improvement in the Tories' fortunes. For whatever reason (and I find it baffling, but that's my problem), Johnson has, or had, a strong appeal to the white working class voters who delivered him the large majority in 2019. I can't see any other prospective Tory leader appealing to these voters in the same way.
And have you tried buying your favourite flavour of fat-delivery-conduit from Walkers? Pah- Brexit! (I'm joking, but I have the tin hat on just in case).
Luckily there are any number of bespoke salt-substrate manufacturers that are superior in flavour and texture to Walkers.
My problem here Scott is rabid Brexiteer PBers have been touting Steve (Hard Man) Baker as a candidate for PM. By comparison Johnson looks like a safe pair of hands.
Well quite,
"Steve Baker" is the answer to the question "Which far-right, out-of-touch, dim, and rather odd MP do the Tories choose for leader if they want to face electoral wipeout?"
But just think of the Brexity mayhem that could be created prior to that electoral wipeout.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico Let's think a bit. Let's use these new vaxx efficacy numbers to update the collective immunity tables I've given you before.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 11h - Maybe in January encourage people to be specially aware of whether people around them are getting infected?
If any special effort is required to sombrero-squash, it'll be in a period of ~12 days, not months.
The trouble with that is that they are the ones out of tune with vaxports which have a high level of support in the electorate
They’re several years out from the next election and are voting with their consciences on an issue outside the manifesto. Providing political leadership rather than politics by focus group.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
When BoZo goes, it probably marks the end of the Brexiteer Government.
If the Conservative and Unionists can regain control of their party, then they could form another Government.
Are there enough of the latter left, after Mr Johynson's purges?
@Scott_xP will say no but of course there are and not only that there is no suggestion outside of the SNP that any party will support rejoining the EU at the next GE
My problem here Scott is rabid Brexiteer PBers have been touting Steve (Hard Man) Baker as a candidate for PM. By comparison Johnson looks like a safe pair of hands.
Well quite,
"Steve Baker" is the answer to the question "Which far-right, out-of-touch, dim, and rather odd MP do the Tories choose for leader if they want to face electoral wipeout?"
But just think of the Brexity mayhem that could be created prior to that electoral wipeout.
At least Johnson wouldn't have losing N Ireland on what passes for his conscience.
Anyone not-Boris will make it hard for them to win; BoJo still does have the X factor for a slice of the electorate.
The anecdata suggests that slice is narrowing though.
They thought he was a lad. Now they think he's a cad...
...his judgement is really very bad (and not just as an absent dad), his decision-making has been often mad, the electorate will realise they've been had, and Johnson will end up very, very sad.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
When BoZo goes, it probably marks the end of the Brexiteer Government.
If the Conservative and Unionists can regain control of their party, then they could form another Government.
Are there enough of the latter left, after Mr Johynson's purges?
@Scott_xP will say no but of course there are and not only that there is no suggestion outside of the SNP that any party will support rejoining the EU at the next GE
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
I think I'm with HYUFD on this one. Johnson going won't necessarily lead to an improvement in the Tories' fortunes. For whatever reason (and I find it baffling, but that's my problem), Johnson has, or had, a strong appeal to the white working class voters who delivered him the large majority in 2019. I can't see any other prospective Tory leader appealing to these voters in the same way.
Not these particular voters in the same way, but Sunak or possibly Hunt could provide election-winning alternatives.
Not Truss or Gove though. And probably not Javid though I'm not sure.
Tougher Covid restrictions may be needed to prevent Omicron causing anywhere between 25,000 to 75,000 deaths in England over the next five months, according to scientists advising the government.
We are following the same pattern as every other lockdown, the briefings, the leaking, the scary models....next the media will be asking every government official how can you accept 75k extra deaths....
Get stocked up on bog rolls, pasta and oven gloves because lockdown is coming.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
When BoZo goes, it probably marks the end of the Brexiteer Government.
If the Conservative and Unionists can regain control of their party, then they could form another Government.
Are there enough of the latter left, after Mr Johynson's purges?
@Scott_xP will say no but of course there are and not only that there is no suggestion outside of the SNP that any party will support rejoining the EU at the next GE
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
@MoonRabbit Moonrabbit , I will not be about today , busy again at my daughter's, but have spent 5 minutes looking at Cheltenham. My Trixie below. Lalor 5/1 13:50 Cheltenham Gelino Bello 7/4 14:25 Cheltenham Song For Someone 9/4 15:00 Cheltenham
Good luck to everyone.
Seen it now. Brilliant. I have a Malc horse and Stodge horse in my lucky15. 👍🏻
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Hell of a Scottish subsample especially with the footie referee inveighing against Mr J - but perhaps partly because of that.
We can largely dismiss Scottish subsamples now, because we have regular full-sample Scottish polls, correctly weighed. I only included the London and Scotland figures for completeness.
The real interest now is definitely Red Wall, and they never have proper polls, so subsampling is all we have.
Yes, Ross seems to dislike Johnson almost as much as Davidson.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The unknown factor for Rishi is just who would be in his cabinet as that would indicate his direction of travel
The Tories must be delighted, Khan once again bringing in more money for London
According to Transport for London, it is 70% less extra than he expected:
TfL said “early indications” were that the Ulez – which expanded to the suburbs on October 25 – would not generate as much cash as it hoped due to “greater compliance” with the rules.
TfL had predicted that about 135,000 cars and vans a day would pay the £12.50 levy as a result of their exhaust emissions breaching the new rules, while about 2,000 HGVs would face the higher £100 charge.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impact the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Tobias Ellwood is positioning himself quite well for a dark horse leadership bid in due course. Might be worth a cheeky punt if the Tories decide to turn back from the ERG version of Brexit in favour of something that might actually work.
I hesitate to tiptoe into the red blooded, throbbing forehead veined world of F1 but I just saw a clip of the Mercedes guy saying their partnership with Dyson next season will help with downforce - ‘It is going to suck us to zee floor like a vacuum cleaner’. Is this utter bullshit?
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Anyone not-Boris will make it hard for them to win; BoJo still does have the X factor for a slice of the electorate.
The anecdata suggests that slice is narrowing though.
They thought he was a lad. Now they think he's a cad...
...his judgement is really very bad (and not just as an absent dad), his decision-making has been often mad, the electorate will realise they've been had, and Johnson will end up very, very sad.
And many will relish the chance to kick him in the nad.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The unknown factor for Rishi is just who would be in his cabinet as that would indicate his direction of travel
Presumably Truss would be Chancellor. Hard to see a role for Patel. I suspect he’d call an end to the Tory Brexit wars. Elevate a Tugenhardt, bring back Greg Clark and Hunt types. Some new blood. Leave Javid where he is for continuity on such an important brief. Switch out JRM and find a role for a Steve Baker.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The unknown factor for Rishi is just who would be in his cabinet as that would indicate his direction of travel
Sunak's window is closing. He needs Johnson to fall quickly. The economy is going to hell in a handcart for the next year or two.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impact the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Tobias Ellwood is positioning himself quite well for a dark horse leadership bid in due course. Might be worth a cheeky punt if the Tories decide to turn back from the ERG version of Brexit in favour of something that might actually work.
A scrap between 'continuity Sunak', 'do it properly Baker' and 'real Conservative Ellwood' might be on the cards. Which two out of those three would be offered to the membership?
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impact the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Tobias Ellwood is positioning himself quite well for a dark horse leadership bid in due course. Might be worth a cheeky punt if the Tories decide to turn back from the ERG version of Brexit in favour of something that might actually work.
A scrap between 'continuity Sunak', 'do it properly Baker' and 'real Conservative Ellwood' might be on the cards. Which two out of those three would be offered to the membership?
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impact the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Tobias Ellwood is positioning himself quite well for a dark horse leadership bid in due course. Might be worth a cheeky punt if the Tories decide to turn back from the ERG version of Brexit in favour of something that might actually work.
A scrap between 'continuity Sunak', 'do it properly Baker' and 'real Conservative Ellwood' might be on the cards. Which two out of those three would be offered to the membership?
"Continuity Rishi" you mean ...
LOL. I've used surnames for consistency.
Although, surnames, as understood in Western Europe don't necessarily apply to those from different traditions. Can be quite puzzling for a cricket-watcher.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The unknown factor for Rishi is just who would be in his cabinet as that would indicate his direction of travel
Presumably Truss would be Chancellor. Hard to see a role for Patel. I suspect he’d call an end to the Tory Brexit wars. Elevate a Tugenhardt, bring back Greg Clark and Hunt types. Some new blood. Leave Javid where he is for continuity on such an important brief. Switch out JRM and find a role for a Steve Baker.
I was with you all the way until just before "find a role for Steve Baker".
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The unknown factor for Rishi is just who would be in his cabinet as that would indicate his direction of travel
Presumably Truss would be Chancellor. Hard to see a role for Patel. I suspect he’d call an end to the Tory Brexit wars. Elevate a Tugenhardt, bring back Greg Clark and Hunt types. Some new blood. Leave Javid where he is for continuity on such an important brief. Switch out JRM and find a role for a Steve Baker.
I was with you all the way until just before "find a role for Steve Baker".
The FO is not fit for purpose as evidenced in the select committee last week
Cutting headcount by 20% seems unlikely to help that. There's lots of room for savings though -> hire more locals abroad and be less generous with all the perks (free rent abroad, extra holiday allowances, free flights etc.)
You'll get no-one of quality applying if your remove free rent abroad. You are already asking two-career households to effectively forego one career, and to maintain a house in London. The extra holiday allowance is to allow diplomats to spend at least some time in the UK so they continue to know the country they represent. The Dutch used to have separate Foreign Office and Diplomatic personnel, with the former permanently in the Hague and the latter serving permanently abroad until that led to Ambassadors who were representing what the NL was 30 years ago (and policy-makers who had little clue of the outside world).
Again, how do you recruit quality personnel without free rent oversees, travel to maintain family ties, and time to spend in the country you are representing?
Under Blair, the FCO core diplomatic personnel was slashed by over 50%. It lost is surge capacity. It now functions in permanent crisis mode. I think the NHS is finding out how damaging that is as an MO.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The next couple of years look hard economically. Tough for any government, but a sleek squillionaire banker might not be the ideal image. And apart from not being a buffoon, how does a post BoJo PM change direction?
The best bet for an ambitious minister might have been let BoJo cop the flack until about May 2023, when things might be turning the corner. But that's not going to work, is it?
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The next couple of years look hard economically. Tough for any government, but a sleek squillionaire banker might not be the ideal image. And apart from not being a buffoon, how does a post BoJo PM change direction?
The best bet for an ambitious minister might have been let BoJo cop the flack until about May 2023, when things might be turning the corner. But that's not going to work, is it?
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The unknown factor for Rishi is just who would be in his cabinet as that would indicate his direction of travel
Presumably Truss would be Chancellor. Hard to see a role for Patel. I suspect he’d call an end to the Tory Brexit wars. Elevate a Tugenhardt, bring back Greg Clark and Hunt types. Some new blood. Leave Javid where he is for continuity on such an important brief. Switch out JRM and find a role for a Steve Baker.
I was with you all the way until just before "find a role for Steve Baker".
Ending the war doesn’t mean filling Cabinet only with Remainers. And Baker is going to be important in the party in managing the shift to covid endemic policy.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Doesn't look particularly robust even in "Rest of South"
The Midlands is becoming the Tory heartlands. Given I'd expect a sizeable Lab lead in Wales, they must be in front there. Still open to a convincing explanation as to why.
This is tittle tattle. It is the lying about the party that is causing the real problems not the party itself. Both from cabinet ministers who are expected to go on TV several times a year and say black is white with a straight face, and the audience who are finally fed up with being taken for fools.
Whether someone working had a beer after work during lockdown is not a big deal.
Its all so predictable, a SAGE leak here, a Neil Ferguson interview there, a SPI-M predicting maasive numbers, now the media will be on the governments case why are they willing to let so many people die....
Comments
I'm hosting a small u3a Group meeting early next week; no-one has (yet) backed off. Mrs C & I will do LFT's and unless there's a howling gale, ensure the room is well ventilated. However, other such meetings seem to be referring to Zoom.
Fraser Nelson
@FraserNelson
·
1h
Striking divergence in Covid trends for under-20s and over-65s. Success of boosters had led gvt to rule out PlanB as recently as Tuesday.
Updated daily on Spectator data hub: http://data.spectator.co.uk
Ahead in the polls two years in.
Some of what's happened has been the ongoing drift, but...
Events, dear boy. Events.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/the-blue-wall-falling-safe-tory-seat-up-for-grabs-amid-growing-voter-disquiet-in-north-shropshire-by-election/ar-AARHElX?ocid=uxbndlbing
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/12/abu-dhabi-pre-qualifying-2021.html
As I said, super tired so very glad the race is tomorrow.
Just like last year.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/
Besides, IIRC there's a mechanism to get around the vaccination requirement with the use of self-certified LFT results as an alternative, which renders the whole scheme moot. You can just order a box of the things, report one of the strips as negative, and either ignore any inconvenient positive result or (more likely) simply throw it in the bin unused.
It's like with the masks. Let us put aside for one moment the argument over whether basic face coverings are much use, assume that they are really important, and then look at the wide range of exemptions, including the entirety of hospitality and all religious services. We are now meant to believe that a clothes shopping trip, where one merely walks past others browsing items on the rails, represents a threat to life and limb from a highly contagious, airborne respiratory illness, and yet choir practice or hymn singing, with a load of people all stood together bellowing at full volume for lengthy periods, is just fine. It's ludicrous.
What rules have been introduced are textbook something-must-be-done-ism. They are for show and not for any useful effect.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
Conscription is the defence of society to a threat.
Vaccination is really about resource allocation. One way to avoid the problem would have been to run an NHS with more spare capacity. Since we chose not to we have potentially insufficient resources to provide care to everyone.
We therefore need to make a decision about allocation of healthcare capacity. However that should be done within the philosophical framework of the citizen state relationship rather than overturning it simply because politicians are not brave enough to work through the consequences of their choices
https://www.politics.co.uk/in-depth/2021/12/11/ive-had-enough-north-shropshire-by-election/
Long period of Labour government ?
Short period of Labour government followed by another long period of Conservative government ?
Long period of alternating governments ?
And after all, in 2017 they weren’t ready for Government and yet still caused a Hung Parliament. I am under no doubt Starmer will outperform Corbyn
Agree that SKS is heading in the right direction - just some way off the destination at present.
The Tories must be delighted, Khan once again bringing in more money for London
@JamesWard73
·
3h
if you were waiting for a signal of Omicron in the case data, I think
@UncleJo46902375
has found it:
Uncle John
@UncleJo46902375
Extraordinary 1
Pushing the gender files to the limit and only excluding last 2 days
London 20-24 + 94%, 25-29 +90%. Together more than ½ of extra London cases
Stop those freaking office parties now. WFH. Masks everywhere.
https://twitter.com/UncleJo46902375/status/1469560014717304839
If the Conservative and Unionists can regain control of their party, then they could form another Government.
Starmer hasn’t magically turned into a master politician or fully convincing leader, and his party isn’t suddenly cleansed of the corbynite era dead wood. It’s just been as extraordinarily politically disastrous week or two for the government as anyone can remember, ahead of the week of the bank runs under Brown even.
Seems to me with a new leader and Cabinet, we’d be looking at something between the 2015 and 2017 elections, although of course it could also be 2010 in reverse, or if the wrong leader is chosen then 1979. If Boris staggers on to the next election then I think you’re right that it could be closish to 1997.
We need to see where it goes.
If you take that approach then you can either do what the health service does at the moment, which is to treat Covid patients as the top priority and tell everyone else to get knotted (hence the constant stream of reports not only of vast numbers of older people in particular waiting in increasing levels of pain and disability for elective surgery, but also cancer patients being deprived of life-saving procedures because essential intensive care recovery capacity is full of largely unvaccinated Covid gaspers.) Or you can deny the anti-vaxxers some or all medical care, perhaps wheeling them into tents in hospital car parks, pumping them full of morphine and abandoning them to their fate, in order to free capacity for other cases.
I am not convinced that either of these approaches is practically or morally preferable to using compulsory vaccination to avoid or reduce the need for rationing.
Conservative MP, Tobias Ellwood says the government needs to “repair” trust with the British people, if they are going to bring in new COVID guidance.
Get #COVID19 updates: https://trib.al/oqKZkSu https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1469636560987594761/video/1
And have you tried buying your favourite flavour of fat-delivery-conduit from Walkers? Pah- Brexit! (I'm joking, but I have the tin hat on just in case).
All I will say is that a big element of the 2019 Johnson victory appears to have been down to his not being Jeremy Corbyn and, in turn, the current uptick in Labour's fortunes probably owes a lot to Starmer not being Boris Johnson. If the leader changes then so, potentially, does that calculus.
Anyone not-Boris will make it hard for them to win; BoJo still does have the X factor for a slice of the electorate. And who out there is realistically better and ready to be dropped into No 10?
But stick with him, and the risk is that months like the last one will keep happening. Because that's who he is.
Two farmers for example
They thought he was a lad. Now they think he's a cad...
North: Lab 45% Con 32%
Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35%
London: Lab 47% Con 24%
Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34%
Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/dpbft003db/TheTimes_VI_211209_W.pdf
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
Let's think a bit. Let's use these new vaxx efficacy numbers to update the collective immunity tables I've given you before.
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
11h
- Maybe in January encourage people to be specially aware of whether people around them are getting infected?
If any special effort is required to sombrero-squash, it'll be in a period of ~12 days, not months.
Not Truss or Gove though. And probably not Javid though I'm not sure.
Edit: Not meant seriously in the least.
Tougher Covid restrictions may be needed to prevent Omicron causing anywhere between 25,000 to 75,000 deaths in England over the next five months, according to scientists advising the government.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/11/omicron-covid-variant-could-cause-75000-deaths-in-england-by-end-of-april-say-scientists
We are following the same pattern as every other lockdown, the briefings, the leaking, the scary models....next the media will be asking every government official how can you accept 75k extra deaths....
Get stocked up on bog rolls, pasta and oven gloves because lockdown is coming.
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The real interest now is definitely Red Wall, and they never have proper polls, so subsampling is all we have.
Yes, Ross seems to dislike Johnson almost as much as Davidson.
TfL said “early indications” were that the Ulez – which expanded to the suburbs on October 25 – would not generate as much cash as it hoped due to “greater compliance” with the rules.
TfL had predicted that about 135,000 cars and vans a day would pay the £12.50 levy as a result of their exhaust emissions breaching the new rules, while about 2,000 HGVs would face the higher £100 charge.
This would have generated up to £2m a day, in a mixture of levies and £130 fines for motorists who failed to pay.
https://www.ft.com/content/6a51d95b-8b86-4cb3-b81d-fcbaf7b04933
(Edit: And even in 2005 Blair won an absolute majority of the combined England, Wales and NI seats).
Which two out of those three would be offered to the membership?
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Although, surnames, as understood in Western Europe don't necessarily apply to those from different traditions. Can be quite puzzling for a cricket-watcher.
Again, how do you recruit quality personnel without free rent oversees, travel to maintain family ties, and time to spend in the country you are representing?
Under Blair, the FCO core diplomatic personnel was slashed by over 50%. It lost is surge capacity. It now functions in permanent crisis mode. I think the NHS is finding out how damaging that is as an MO.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
The best bet for an ambitious minister might have been let BoJo cop the flack until about May 2023, when things might be turning the corner. But that's not going to work, is it?
Rishi's joined the party gathering. Awks...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/11/treasury-defends-impromptu-drinks-party-after-rishi-sunak-autumn-budget
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
Good spot.
Still open to a convincing explanation as to why.
WinterLockdown is coming....BBC News - Covid: Omicron study suggests major wave in January
Nobody wants a lockdown, but....requires to.....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59621029
Nailed on cases spike after Christmas / New Year, Boris appears first week of Jan, need to flatten the sombero etc etc etc...
Whether someone working had a beer after work during lockdown is not a big deal.