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North Shropshire: Betting with a clean slate – politicalbetting.com
North Shropshire: Betting with a clean slate – politicalbetting.com
A few weeks ago I tipped the Tories to hold North Shropshire at 2/5. Since then, everything which could go wrong has gone wrong for them and 7/4 is available from two bookies (at time of writing on Friday night). Suffice to say I wouldn’t place my 2/5 bets now. But I am about to advise you to back the Tories at current odds.
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@Leon guzzles booze like nobody’s business. That’s a positive act that is likely to be an NHS resource drain in the future. Driving a car at 120mph is also a positive act. Refusing a vaccine is an omission.
It feels profoundly wrong to force people to put something into their own body.
I say this as someone who has had an operation cancelled 3 times already due to NHS pressures. 4th attempt is currently scheduled for Monday.
I spend a bit of time on a UK motorbike FB group and I've almost never seen politics mentioned in the years I've been on it. However this week I've seen...
"I liked Boris at first and gave him the benefit of the doubt but now I think he's a ****."
"Boris is a ****."
"He's an absolute ****."
etc. That is 'cut through'.
It's particularly hard to call the Labour vote. Nationally, Starmer has been The Alternative every day for the last two weeks, and I don't recall seeing Davey once - that's why Labour is up about 6 points on two weeks ago, while the LibDems have barely moved. If people voted according to preference, the LibDems wouldn't be close to winning. But the mood is definitely to send the Tories a message, and I think the LibDems will have nailed most of the tactical vote by now.
Tell you what, drive down the motorway on your stupid imaginary BXfo92227777 Asterix the HarleyTriumph Motortrike with its tungsten SAS micro-testicles and do it at 190mph the wrong way, but do it at night, alone, drunk, when you can't hurt anyone else, because that would literally be less selfish than what you do with the vax
It will be all over by end of play today.
Stupid, soft dismissal for Root. What a shame!
Not so very long ago, millions of our forebears were conscripted to fight in wars. When society was faced with an existential threat, it demanded, amongst other things, that young people fight in battles and get blown up, shot through the head or drown in icy cold seas. And if you were called up then, unless you had a very good excuse (e.g. a reserved occupation or being medically unfit) then you bloody well went. The small minority of hardcore pacifists who refused to do service of any kind were complete social pariahs who ended up imprisoned.
Fast forward a few decades and now it's considered unforgivable to ask people to have a scratch on the arm every three or six months so as to try and avoid the entire bloody country ending up under house arrest for months on end, with the education of the nation's children wrecked, otherwise viable businesses driven to the wall en masse, and the state hurtling ever closer to the cliff edge of bankruptcy into the bargain.
And if the cost of you, or perhaps someone in that situation facing a more serious condition, having to put up with repeated cancelled operations was death or disability, I doubt that the patient or their surviving relatives would feel so sanguine about this problem.
And you don't have to mandate it. Having a bank account isn't mandated but life can be inconvenient without one.
No Pope.
I confess my patience has ENTIRELY snapped with vax refuseniks like Dura, however entertaining he might be, on occasion. It especially snaps when he starts opining on bloody politics. To continue your analogy, it is like some conscientious objector in 1944 complaining about the awful tactics during D Day and demanding resignations. Jeez no. Do one. Fuck. Right. Off. Never speak again
But my anger - which is genuine - is running away with me, and I will rein it in, for the sake of the site. And the mods. FWIW I have the same anger to refuseniks in my personal life, I now find it very hard not to slap them. This is not "personal"
Goodnight
Decent bet at 2/1. I’ve nibbled.
The country does not need to be under house arrest. We’re very highly vaccinated. Thats good. The odd person who isn’t isnt going to make a difference.
But of course keep blaming others
Your miserable IQ is too low to grasp this central fact
It wasn't a year old Christmas Party. It was a repulsion against privilege and entitlement. Why it happened this week I can't say. But that's the way zeitgeist works. Several things at the same time that you can't put your finger on.
For me it was Johnson 's grin Allegra's smirk and the policeman's costume but it could just be the weather.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories lose.
The common factor is fear as a result of the uncertainty and lack of control. After two years of it. And six months when many have thought it over, it is too much to process.
Hence panic. And the febrile atmosphere on here and elsewhere.
Doesn't help that it has sunk in with most that our leader isn't up to it.
Its time to stop giving a monkeys whether the virus spreads or not. This virus is going to spread, all we can do is ensure that when its our time to get it that we're primed and able to defeat it.
I am glad I am not watching the cricket.
GN all enjoy the game 😈
The entire problem is that there are five or six million refusers, and their gasping, disease-wracked carcasses are clogging up a lot of vital hospital care capacity which they would not be doing if they had simply had the blessed jab.
Bluntly, if alarm bells ring loudly enough about that care capacity becoming overwhelmed then we end up under house arrest again. This wretched cycle of variants *might* be enough to cause that on its own, simply by creating such an enormous wave of infections in those already vaccinated that enough of them get sick at once to screw everything up. That is what a lot of us are afraid will happen, but of course we can't know that unless or until it does.
What we already do know, however, is that the unvaccinated already claim a share of finite medical resources that is greatly in excess of their numbers as a percentage of the total population. Consequently, if they just took the damn vaccines, the pressure would ease and the likelihood of our tumbling all the way back into disastrous, Draconian measures yet again would be that much lower.
2. What if they don't work?
At the end of the day we’re going to have to deal with covid forever now. Its time to accept that and get on with it.
i) Healthcare system collapses.
ii) Mandatory vaccination.
iii) More lockdowns for all.
However, if the DAs start filling up the hospitals then operations like the one GG is getting (and me too, next week) will be cancelled as the NHS collapses under the pressure.
Job done
However 54% of voters back a ban on international travel post Omicron and 56% back extending the coronavirus vaccine rollout to children aged 5 to 11
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10297923/Women-deserting-Boris-Johnson-Poll-shows-two-thirds-voters-dont-trust-PM.html
(Appreciate it's not quite as simple as that, capacity wise).
EDIT: Generator that powers the cameras has failed and they've not got a backup. 🤦♂️
No matter. Yes, we are going to have to deal with Covid forever, but no, the Government isn't going to do that by following the anarcho-libertarian path of letting everybody get it at once and letting the sick perish so that the survivors can then get on with life as it was before. At least, not unless it's forced to because the population is in open revolt or the country is bankrupt, and we're still some way from those scenarios.
If the hospitals are in a bad enough way, or if they think there's enough evidence to suggest that things are heading in that direction, then ministers will keep piling on the restrictions to avert disaster. The best weapon in our arsenal in the battle to avoid those restrictions is the vaccines. The more people refuse the vaccines, the more Covid patients there are, and the more likely it becomes that the restrictions keep getting worse and worse.
After nearly two years of this unending disaster these ought not to be difficult concepts to grasp.
Alcohol and drugs again nhs help is often restricted till you give up
smoking...smokers have to pay extra to fund their care via tax
Seems making anti vaxxers pay is in the same vein.
However if you dont want that here is an idea
Perhaps we should use the home office bill everyone hates before it gets repealed and deprive anti vaxxers of their british citizenship and deport them.....problem solved
Alcohol is harder still. Scotland tried it.
And now Austria is raising money by taxing anti-vaxxers.
Other countries will follow.
But that sort of additional capacity takes years to build. Even if the Government could magically double the health budget and spend all the extra money on pay hikes to attract new recruits, you can't also magically transform school leavers into fully qualified nurses overnight.
You cannot simply wish the anti-vaxxer problem away, and pulling policy levers to make their lives so hard that they give in and have it is still not nearly as nasty as the alternative, which is to curtail or withdraw their right to medical care.
It’s disgusting.
Although a pre-disposition to viewing the world as essentially chaotic anyway will help. As a five feet 10 guy who is under 10 stone I second this message. With a violently steep taper rate added.
There's no tax on fresh food that you cook and prepare at home.
Takeaways, deliveries, restaurant food etc is almost always taxed at 20% VAT as are most treats like chocolate.
Something tells me that in general fatties are paying a lot more VAT on their food because of this.
It’s like taxing someone who refuses to eat iodine fortified bread.
I just hate the precedent.
Perhaps the difference I pointed out upsets you ?
Here's another difference between the UK and USA on vaccination:
In the UK the non-vaccinated are predominantly on the left, in the USA the non-vaccinated are predominantly on the right.
Which I'll suggest highlights the difference between the UK and USA voters of the right.
Vaxports to access theatres or pubs are going to do very little to combat the disease. Certification of vaccination (or medical exemption) to access paid employment or social security benefits, on the other hand, would quickly compel almost all of the refusers to do as told.
We don't need income from fines to help pay for care when there's no more care capacity available to be bought with the extra money, at least not within any short timescale that would help to get us out of this awful mess. To have a better chance of escaping, we need people to be vaccinated. That's what counts.
Pfizer showed that the triple vaxxed had exactly the same immune response to Omicron that the double vaxxed had to Alpha. Now, this was a small scale antibody test, but it's highly suggestive of the fact that those who have had all three jabs are going to be fine.
Are you entirely sure of that?
This Test is going to be over before I go to sleep, let alone when I wake up. 😢
a really good political betting header to me from Pippa Moss, things like this teaching me about caution if can’t see how it’s going, spot value and bet with head not heart. The header is right, if you bet today with a clean slate the value bet is Conservatives for a small amount.
I have never taken that approach on horses. Nor my political bets. Both of them.
i pu bullseye on libdems to win Shropshire North at 4-1 weeks ago, my first political bet. I haven’t got into spreading or laying bets in my life. I’ve never used cash out in my life, I look at it as bed wetting button. I tried to assess the politics of it for likely winner, and came to the conclusion Boris is getting unpopular. The gamble was will media narrative Boris is shit get on the roll. it has, but it was still a gamble that it would, even today there’s still chance Tories will not lose.
But that’s the point isn’t it. The Tories will have this seat at General election sure as Osborne with big majority follows Hamilton eventually. The Tory loss this week isn’t a Tory loss, it’s not fans abandoning their club, it’s merely fans booing the manager after bad performance. A lot of the red wall might well turn out the same if Mike Smithson is right it was Corbyn what lost it not Boris what won it.
My second political bet was Javid for next Tory leader, bullseye at 14-1 several weeks ago. This was easy once I realised Sunak cannot now become Tory leader this time because he has signed too many dodgy cheques for the disastrous Boris regime - and his own side know opponents will have a field day with that if they make him leader. I can see pb posters now thinking the same. What I second guessed is the media narrative once the campaign begins. Patel as well as divide’s, poor record in the job. Raab, Gove, Truss did not originate on planet Earth - Javid lived in flat above shop in run down British High Street. It’s a no brainier to me he is the one to be anointed by the media, comes storming through to take the crown as he is the next both able and human cabinet minister in the queue.
Which brings me to my point. are my bets proper political betting?long shot punts in political betting just seem more fun and money making to me. From two bets I can be a grand up. And to kick off the debate, I would say no. My bets may look like second guessing what will happen in politics, but a healthy chunk of it is second guessing what will happen in media narrative.
Rather than simply political betting dot com. Analytically going through demographics, breakdown of past votes and allegiances, extrapolating uns anecdotal from canvassers - we also need to ask each other as a hive mind how do you see the media narrative going from here, it could actually prove more influential than all those other analysing combined.
I don’t know if my thoughts help at all.
I'm quite happy to charge the rich more whereas you'd not charge them anything.
You seem determined to pander to anti-vaxxers.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/doctors-and-nurses-vent-anger-as-unvaccinated-covid-cases-delay-vital-operations-z3zchvv9l
What do the data on hospital admissions show?
An analysis of UK data from the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS) and the Coronavirus Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN),1 endorsed by the UK Scientific and Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE),2 shows that of 40 000 patients with covid-19 who were admitted to hospital between December 2020 and July 2021 a total of 33 496 (84%) had not been vaccinated. It found that 5198 (13%) of these patients had received their first vaccine and 1274 (3%) their second. A total of 611 patients with previous covid-19 (reinfection) were not included in the analysis.