“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
Apologies - yes sorry 5600 pw - I realised this. But my point is - that 5600 will average st 20,666 from now to the end of the first quarter is massive in itself but would necessitate a MUCH larger figure somewhere in that quarter to bring up the mean to 20,666.
Total covid admissions so far. 600,000. I’m predicting omicron will add roughly 50% to that over the winter
If I say so myself, I’m still impressed by my amateur epidemiology.
This morning the best scientific brains in the country - virologists to mathematicians - came up with their predictions of deaths by omicron
Best case: 24,700
Worst case: 74,900
Last night, hours before, at about 11pm after two gins and several wines, I predicted
My case: 49,100
Absolute bullseye. Smack bang in the middle. Quite frankly the government could save squillions by sacking all their modellers and hiring me to do it once a week after dinner for about an hour. They could pay me in Tikves Barovo
"It is understood that Sunak was not at the event and was not aware of it taking place at the time."
I live in a detached house in its own grounds. When a celebration occurs next door I can hear it from 100 metres away. Didn't Sunak or Johnson ask for the noise to be turned down? Or is Carrie's wallpaper so sound insulation efficient they couldn't hear anything?
As I understand it Sunak doesn't live in Downing Street. Boris on the other hand....he doesn't have a leg to stand on, as his diary says he was away during the day, but back in London the evening of the big piss up.
Does the Chancellor stay in the flat when he has been on the lash at a works party ... I mean late working breakfast?
Someone who understands F1 please help me. What's the significance of Verstappen having to start on softs?
Soft tyres degrade faster so it means he'll have to come in and pit earlier for the next set while Lewis can keep the same mediums on for 5-7 more laps, Lewis will also keep that advantage on the hards in the second stint where at the end of the race Max might struggle to keep his car on the road.
"It is understood that Sunak was not at the event and was not aware of it taking place at the time."
I live in a detached house in its own grounds. When a celebration occurs next door I can hear it from 100 metres away. Didn't Sunak or Johnson ask for the noise to be turned down? Or is Carrie's wallpaper so sound insulation efficient they couldn't hear anything?
As I understand it Sunak doesn't live in Downing Street. Boris on the other hand....he doesn't have a leg to stand on, as his diary says he was away during the day, but back in London the evening of the big piss up.
Does the Chancellor stay in the flat when he has been on the lash at a works party ... I mean late working breakfast?
AFIK Dishy Rishi doesn't drink.
He does. Drinks the tears from the howls of anguish of Boris's team as he outmanoeuvres them again and again.
Drinking alcohol is, I understand, discouraged among Hindu's. Although I've known Hindu's who did, although rarely to excess.
F1: Perez starts immediately behind Hamilton. There's a reasonable chance he and Norris can get ahead of the current champion. I still think Hamilton has a great shot, but this is a setback.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
My virulent anti-vaxxer friend is now on day 9 in ICU. He seems to be getting better, so will no doubt convince himself that it was better than getting jabbed.
He and his wife were also rabidly anti-Trump. How they square the circle of being in the same camp as the Republican nutters is beyond me.
Rather than smoking regs, more like those who used to drink and drive. You stood a real chance of being wiped out by some selfish arse who genuinely thought they drove just as well pissed as sober. Thankfully, Darwinism has pretty much seen off the remaining stump of those idiots. As it will Covid. Just don't expect a functioning NHS until it has.
I don't understand how anyone can be anti-vaccinations. Mindboggling.
"It is understood that Sunak was not at the event and was not aware of it taking place at the time."
I live in a detached house in its own grounds. When a celebration occurs next door I can hear it from 100 metres away. Didn't Sunak or Johnson ask for the noise to be turned down? Or is Carrie's wallpaper so sound insulation efficient they couldn't hear anything?
As I understand it Sunak doesn't live in Downing Street. Boris on the other hand....he doesn't have a leg to stand on, as his diary says he was away during the day, but back in London the evening of the big piss up.
Does the Chancellor stay in the flat when he has been on the lash at a works party ... I mean late working breakfast?
AFIK Dishy Rishi doesn't drink.
He does. Drinks the tears from the howls of anguish of Boris's team as he outmanoeuvres them again and again.
Drinking alcohol is, I understand, discouraged among Hindu's. Although I've known Hindu's who did, although rarely to excess.
Have you ever met any Indian cricket fans? Restraint is not the first word that comes to mind.
Someone who understands F1 please help me. What's the significance of Verstappen having to start on softs?
Soft tyres degrade faster so it means he'll have to come in and pit earlier for the next set while Lewis can keep the same mediums on for 5-7 more laps, Lewis will also keep that advantage on the hards in the second stint where at the end of the race Max might struggle to keep his car on the road.
The word appears to be that he may be banking on a collision?
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
We (I’m a smoker) enjoy satiating the craving. It’s not really enjoyment. We look forward to the calm, pleasant sensation after getting our fix.
It’s a stupid, nasty, dangerous habit. Despite what I said in my previous post, I still wish smoking had been illegal when I was growing up. I almost certainly wouldn’t be addicted now.
I just think there’s something wrong with the way NZ is going about it.
Yes, there’s a fair amount of research showing it’s as hard to quit as the most addictive hard drugs, but far less pleasurable.
Managed to bag a (relatively) cheap 1st class ticket York to Edinburgh. Then an hour fester in Edinburgh before the trundle back to Aberdeen then Inverurie then the drive home.
Wifey says she is ok. Thumping headache and coughing but functional. Daughter has been fine for days, son will be happy to bin off the last week of school.
Appreciate the positive messages everyone. Have taken the abrupt scrapping of my plans for more dollah with a wry smile - if I am lucky Hilton will give me back my points for tonight's stay having rung to cancel and telling they why.
"It is understood that Sunak was not at the event and was not aware of it taking place at the time."
I live in a detached house in its own grounds. When a celebration occurs next door I can hear it from 100 metres away. Didn't Sunak or Johnson ask for the noise to be turned down? Or is Carrie's wallpaper so sound insulation efficient they couldn't hear anything?
As I understand it Sunak doesn't live in Downing Street. Boris on the other hand....he doesn't have a leg to stand on, as his diary says he was away during the day, but back in London the evening of the big piss up.
Does the Chancellor stay in the flat when he has been on the lash at a works party ... I mean late working breakfast?
AFIK Dishy Rishi doesn't drink.
He does. Drinks the tears from the howls of anguish of Boris's team as he outmanoeuvres them again and again.
Drinking alcohol is, I understand, discouraged among Hindu's. Although I've known Hindu's who did, although rarely to excess.
Mr. Pointer, the soft tyre is faster by 0.6s or so a lap but will degrade more rapidly. If an early pit stop puts you behind traffic, that's bad. If you need to have 2 stops rather than 1 that may (depending on the circuit) cost you a lot of time.
Someone who understands F1 please help me. What's the significance of Verstappen having to start on softs?
Soft tyres degrade faster so it means he'll have to come in and pit earlier for the next set while Lewis can keep the same mediums on for 5-7 more laps, Lewis will also keep that advantage on the hards in the second stint where at the end of the race Max might struggle to keep his car on the road.
Thanks. Going to watch it live on TV for the first time in years, thanks to the C4/Sky deal.
Hopefully I'll be able to work out what's going on.
Mr. Pointer, the soft tyre is faster by 0.6s or so a lap but will degrade more rapidly. If an early pit stop puts you behind traffic, that's bad. If you need to have 2 stops rather than 1 that may (depending on the circuit) cost you a lot of time.
Thanks @Morris_Dancer. Do you think the 2 stops rather than 1 will come into play on this circuit?
BBC interviewers taking this line with newspapers are brave. We're entitled to ask them did they party in Portland Place last December during lockdown?
Which is why Hunt is in with a shout, as one of the tiny number of possible PMs who is not mad, and unassociated with this government.
He has also had a "good COVID". Yes the criticism of why weren't better plans during his time at DoH (although it seems most expert stuff was about flu related outbreak), but during the past 18 months, he has done a better job than the opposition of constructive criticism.
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
Apologies - yes sorry 5600 pw - I realised this. But my point is - that 5600 will average st 20,666 from now to the end of the first quarter is massive in itself but would necessitate a MUCH larger figure somewhere in that quarter to bring up the mean to 20,666.
Total covid admissions so far. 600,000. I’m predicting omicron will add roughly 50% to that over the winter
If I say so myself, I’m still impressed by my amateur epidemiology.
This morning the best scientific brains in the country - virologists to mathematicians - came up with their predictions of deaths by omicron
Best case: 24,700
Worst case: 74,900
Last night, hours before, at about 11pm after two gins and several wines, I predicted
My case: 49,100
Absolute bullseye. Smack bang in the middle. Quite frankly the government could save squillions by sacking all their modellers and hiring me to do it once a week after dinner for about an hour. They could pay me in Tikves Barovo
Ok, I can see why you are panicking.
I hope and think you are way off.
Yes, I might well be panicking (in terms of exaggerating the peril, I am actually sitting here calmly sipping tea), and of course I hope I am way over the top in my predix, and Omicron just fizzles away
But what is interesting is how exactly my *panicked* and entirely amateur predictions align with those of the best epidemiological brains in the country
I plucked mine of out of thin air after thinking for about 20minutes, slightly tipsy, near midnight. Theirs took days of pondering with computers and models in the labs, no doubt. Yet, precisely the same
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
I know they don't. It's quelling nicotine withdrawal pangs, hitting the clock on the next lot building up until they must be quelled again. The 'pleasure' is simply relief at the temporary removal of the twitchy anxious gnawing sensation the addiction itself creates. Smokers are rats on a wheel. Ruining their health, stinking up the place, throwing their money away. Many try to convince themselves otherwise for self-esteem purposes. But it's bollocks.
Someone who understands F1 please help me. What's the significance of Verstappen having to start on softs?
Soft tyres degrade faster so it means he'll have to come in and pit earlier for the next set while Lewis can keep the same mediums on for 5-7 more laps, Lewis will also keep that advantage on the hards in the second stint where at the end of the race Max might struggle to keep his car on the road.
Safety car could negate that, of course. And with Perez just behind on the softs, the start is not risk free. Also Red Bull have strategy options not longer available to Mercedes with Bottas so far back.
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
Apologies - yes sorry 5600 pw - I realised this. But my point is - that 5600 will average st 20,666 from now to the end of the first quarter is massive in itself but would necessitate a MUCH larger figure somewhere in that quarter to bring up the mean to 20,666.
Total covid admissions so far. 600,000. I’m predicting omicron will add roughly 50% to that over the winter
If I say so myself, I’m still impressed by my amateur epidemiology.
This morning the best scientific brains in the country - virologists to mathematicians - came up with their predictions of deaths by omicron
Best case: 24,700
Worst case: 74,900
Last night, hours before, at about 11pm after two gins and several wines, I predicted
My case: 49,100
Absolute bullseye. Smack bang in the middle. Quite frankly the government could save squillions by sacking all their modellers and hiring me to do it once a week after dinner for about an hour. They could pay me in Tikves Barovo
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
Apologies - yes sorry 5600 pw - I realised this. But my point is - that 5600 will average st 20,666 from now to the end of the first quarter is massive in itself but would necessitate a MUCH larger figure somewhere in that quarter to bring up the mean to 20,666.
Total covid admissions so far. 600,000. I’m predicting omicron will add roughly 50% to that over the winter
If I say so myself, I’m still impressed by my amateur epidemiology.
This morning the best scientific brains in the country - virologists to mathematicians - came up with their predictions of deaths by omicron
Best case: 24,700
Worst case: 74,900
Last night, hours before, at about 11pm after two gins and several wines, I predicted
My case: 49,100
Absolute bullseye. Smack bang in the middle. Quite frankly the government could save squillions by sacking all their modellers and hiring me to do it once a week after dinner for about an hour. They could pay me in Tikves Barovo
Ok, I can see why you are panicking.
I hope and think you are way off.
Yes, I might well be panicking (in terms of exaggerating the peril, I am actually sitting here calmly sipping tea), and of course I hope I am way over the top in my predix, and Omicron just fizzles away
But what is interesting is how exactly my *panicked* and entirely amateur predictions align with those of the best epidemiological brains in the country
I plucked mine of out of thin air after thinking for about 20minutes, slightly tipsy, near midnight. Theirs took days of pondering with computers and models in the labs, no doubt. Yet, precisely the same
As long as COVID is a live issue, Boris Johnson is safe. That’s now the dividing line in politics and I don’t think the pro-restrictions wing of the party would risk having Steve Baker as PM.
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
Apologies - yes sorry 5600 pw - I realised this. But my point is - that 5600 will average st 20,666 from now to the end of the first quarter is massive in itself but would necessitate a MUCH larger figure somewhere in that quarter to bring up the mean to 20,666.
Total covid admissions so far. 600,000. I’m predicting omicron will add roughly 50% to that over the winter
If I say so myself, I’m still impressed by my amateur epidemiology.
This morning the best scientific brains in the country - virologists to mathematicians - came up with their predictions of deaths by omicron
Best case: 24,700
Worst case: 74,900
Last night, hours before, at about 11pm after two gins and several wines, I predicted
My case: 49,100
Absolute bullseye. Smack bang in the middle. Quite frankly the government could save squillions by sacking all their modellers and hiring me to do it once a week after dinner for about an hour. They could pay me in Tikves Barovo
Ok, I can see why you are panicking.
I hope and think you are way off.
Well, if @Leon counts as panicking then so are all the bloody modellers who have come up yet again with scary numbers and graphs.
Maybe third or is it fourth time they will get lucky and get the right numbers.
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
Thing is, damage limitation requires the UK to make concessions and publicly commit to them. Passively not doing things isn't going to work.
An example. The US apparently won't drop steel tariffs until the UK comes to agreement with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol. Quietly dropping the idea of using A16 won't be enough to get the US tariffs removed. The UK will need to make some kind of commitment to not using it by agreeing something else, which happens to be same as the Irish and EU demands.
The US tariffs aren't simply an embarrassment, in that the EU gets something the UK doesn't. UK steel firms are now at a competitive disadvantage because they have tariffs and the competition doesn't.
So the Brexiteer government must decide if it prioritises the hypothetical possibility of calling Article 16 over the future of an important industry in Red Wall seats. This can't be fudged.
On another topic it looks like the UK and Jersey will reissue the demanded French fishing licences, as predicted.
There's no point discussing whether this is good or bad. I guess for different reasons both Remainers and Leavers think it's bad, which is why there's been no market for damage limitation up to now. It's simply how things are going to be from now on. But I can see people reacting badly.
I don't see any of those being that way.
Article 16 is an article in the Treaty designed to be used in appropriate circumstances. The issue with Sleepy Joe is what constitutes a sustainable and peace-preserving arrangement. It is quite possible that Biden is talking out of his Rs, and his demands (if he has made them) undermine stability - he appears to be following a Simon Coveney lead. A16 has been built up into an existential earthquake, which is a huge exaggeration of what it is.
On Fishing some will be granted, but not all. UK Gov position will be that those granted have been where suitable evidence has been provided. Macron has been demanding 100% and indulging himself in Putin panto, and he will have to back down.
Biden has also guaranteed that the countervailing UK on USA tariffs are continued, since the steel ones were the other half of a tariff-tariff pair introduced by the USA and the EU.
I see that this morning we have a trilateral agreement on total allowable catches between UK/EU/Norway for next year.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
I know they don't. It's quelling nicotine withdrawal pangs, hitting the clock on the next lot building up until they must be quelled again. The 'pleasure' is simply relief at the temporary removal of the twitchy anxious gnawing sensation the addiction itself creates. Smokers are rats on a wheel. Ruining their health, stinking up the place, throwing their money away. Many try to convince themselves otherwise for self-esteem purposes. But it's bollocks.
Took me several tries to finally succeed in quitting (from up to two packs a day). Very glad I did.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
My virulent anti-vaxxer friend is now on day 9 in ICU. He seems to be getting better, so will no doubt convince himself that it was better than getting jabbed.
He and his wife were also rabidly anti-Trump. How they square the circle of being in the same camp as the Republican nutters is beyond me.
Rather than smoking regs, more like those who used to drink and drive. You stood a real chance of being wiped out by some selfish arse who genuinely thought they drove just as well pissed as sober. Thankfully, Darwinism has pretty much seen off the remaining stump of those idiots. As it will Covid. Just don't expect a functioning NHS until it has.
I don't understand how anyone can be anti-vaccinations. Mindboggling.
Most aren't anti-vaccinations as such. There are a few who see them as not natural and we should live as nature intended (the hippy libertarian types) but they are a minority. The objections are coming from a few strands. Some think they are too risky, rushed, and haven't been tested for long enough, some tend towards the madcap conspiracy theories. But also the main objection I think comes from a deep distrust and loathing of state coercion. Then of course you have religious objectors.
I am concerned that the nudge policy to maximise vaccination rates has veered off into a much more vigorous heckling and I think this is counter-productive. They will dig their heels in now out of stubbornness. If they think they are being relegated to second-class citizens rather than being allowed to make their own decisions there will be trouble.
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
Apologies - yes sorry 5600 pw - I realised this. But my point is - that 5600 will average st 20,666 from now to the end of the first quarter is massive in itself but would necessitate a MUCH larger figure somewhere in that quarter to bring up the mean to 20,666.
Total covid admissions so far. 600,000. I’m predicting omicron will add roughly 50% to that over the winter
If I say so myself, I’m still impressed by my amateur epidemiology.
This morning the best scientific brains in the country - virologists to mathematicians - came up with their predictions of deaths by omicron
Best case: 24,700
Worst case: 74,900
Last night, hours before, at about 11pm after two gins and several wines, I predicted
My case: 49,100
Absolute bullseye. Smack bang in the middle. Quite frankly the government could save squillions by sacking all their modellers and hiring me to do it once a week after dinner for about an hour. They could pay me in Tikves Barovo
Ok, I can see why you are panicking.
I hope and think you are way off.
Well, if @Leon counts as panicking then so are all the bloody modellers who have come up yet again with scary numbers and graphs.
Maybe third or is it fourth time they will get lucky and get the right numbers.
There seems little evidence they are improving their models, they seem to come up with the same flawed shit every time, where as soon as you start looking you say hold on, such and such output is just impossible.
Just got the Test and Trace phone call. They are clearly worried. Have been told to isolate for 10 days from peak symptoms, not first, as the official guidelines state. They were far more bothered about timings, symptoms and about the date and type of vaccine I'd had than contacts. He sounded concerned that I had tested negative from first sore throat (Saturday) through to peak (Tuesday), only positive LFT on Wednesday. This was similar for the folk I very strongly suspect I caught it from. They were both also largely recovered and 4 and 6 days in by the time they recorded a positive test. Implying that the LFT may not function well for this variant. A 4 or 6 or maybe more day window between symptoms and a positive isn't great. Neither for controlling the spread, nor for the economy if everyone with a cold is now a suspected case. Have received an immediate follow up saying I am suspected omicron. Which fits with the facts, as I was, if anything, more careful in the week leading up to my booster than before. Really didn't engage in any risky close contact. It was sitting a couple of metres apart chatting for half an hour. In a group of half a dozen rather than exclusively with the infected. And we were side by side, not facing. Not great really.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
I know they don't. It's quelling nicotine withdrawal pangs, hitting the clock on the next lot building up until they must be quelled again. The 'pleasure' is simply relief at the temporary removal of the twitchy anxious gnawing sensation the addiction itself creates. Smokers are rats on a wheel. Ruining their health, stinking up the place, throwing their money away. Many try to convince themselves otherwise for self-esteem purposes. But it's bollocks.
Nicotine is such a pathetic addiction. Smelly and dirty, and almost zero pleasure, apart from a tiny buzz early in the habit and then just the relief of the craving. Smokers are twats
Heroin makes much more sense, in terms. Heroin brings an intense sensual and mental pleasure, the relief of all pain and anxieties, a true bliss which has been compared to a prolonged, refined orgasm. Of course the problem is the addiction which will put you on your back in a urinous stairwell within a decade, or in the grave, or in prison, unless you are lucky, but even at the end the pleasure of the hit is greater than that of a stupid fag
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
Apologies - yes sorry 5600 pw - I realised this. But my point is - that 5600 will average st 20,666 from now to the end of the first quarter is massive in itself but would necessitate a MUCH larger figure somewhere in that quarter to bring up the mean to 20,666.
Total covid admissions so far. 600,000. I’m predicting omicron will add roughly 50% to that over the winter
If I say so myself, I’m still impressed by my amateur epidemiology.
This morning the best scientific brains in the country - virologists to mathematicians - came up with their predictions of deaths by omicron
Best case: 24,700
Worst case: 74,900
Last night, hours before, at about 11pm after two gins and several wines, I predicted
My case: 49,100
Absolute bullseye. Smack bang in the middle. Quite frankly the government could save squillions by sacking all their modellers and hiring me to do it once a week after dinner for about an hour. They could pay me in Tikves Barovo
HMG have been living off a stale "world-beating vaccine success" narrative for far too long imo.
To be fair, the root cause of this problem is the JCVI. They told government, no boosters are a luxury, you only need to give them to a very select group of old people.
JCVI and SAGE not meeting at all during August and SAGE only once during September is criminal. To only in October starting to talk about the need to model the winter ahead is just mad.
It should have been school kids during summer holidays, boosters from September.
But definitely since Zahawi went, the new vaccines minister is never seen nor appears to do anything.
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
Apologies - yes sorry 5600 pw - I realised this. But my point is - that 5600 will average st 20,666 from now to the end of the first quarter is massive in itself but would necessitate a MUCH larger figure somewhere in that quarter to bring up the mean to 20,666.
Total covid admissions so far. 600,000. I’m predicting omicron will add roughly 50% to that over the winter
If I say so myself, I’m still impressed by my amateur epidemiology.
This morning the best scientific brains in the country - virologists to mathematicians - came up with their predictions of deaths by omicron
Best case: 24,700
Worst case: 74,900
Last night, hours before, at about 11pm after two gins and several wines, I predicted
My case: 49,100
Absolute bullseye. Smack bang in the middle. Quite frankly the government could save squillions by sacking all their modellers and hiring me to do it once a week after dinner for about an hour. They could pay me in Tikves Barovo
None of which has actually happened yet...
You are kind of missing the point of "predictions", and also missing my point, on top. Impressive
"It is understood that Sunak was not at the event and was not aware of it taking place at the time."
I live in a detached house in its own grounds. When a celebration occurs next door I can hear it from 100 metres away. Didn't Sunak or Johnson ask for the noise to be turned down? Or is Carrie's wallpaper so sound insulation efficient they couldn't hear anything?
As I understand it Sunak doesn't live in Downing Street. Boris on the other hand....he doesn't have a leg to stand on, as his diary says he was away during the day, but back in London the evening of the big piss up.
Does the Chancellor stay in the flat when he has been on the lash at a works party ... I mean late working breakfast?
AFIK Dishy Rishi doesn't drink.
He does. Drinks the tears from the howls of anguish of Boris's team as he outmanoeuvres them again and again.
Drinking alcohol is, I understand, discouraged among Hindu's. Although I've known Hindu's who did, although rarely to excess.
Have you ever met any Indian cricket fans? Restraint is not the first word that comes to mind.
Yes. Agree. Noisy with it, too. However I've also been to a couple of Hindu weddings which were 'dry'. Much to the discomfort of some of the British guests.
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
Apologies - yes sorry 5600 pw - I realised this. But my point is - that 5600 will average st 20,666 from now to the end of the first quarter is massive in itself but would necessitate a MUCH larger figure somewhere in that quarter to bring up the mean to 20,666.
Total covid admissions so far. 600,000. I’m predicting omicron will add roughly 50% to that over the winter
If I say so myself, I’m still impressed by my amateur epidemiology.
This morning the best scientific brains in the country - virologists to mathematicians - came up with their predictions of deaths by omicron
Best case: 24,700
Worst case: 74,900
Last night, hours before, at about 11pm after two gins and several wines, I predicted
My case: 49,100
Absolute bullseye. Smack bang in the middle. Quite frankly the government could save squillions by sacking all their modellers and hiring me to do it once a week after dinner for about an hour. They could pay me in Tikves Barovo
None of which has actually happened yet...
Well, the two gins and several large glasses of wine almost certainly did happen.
Just got the Test and Trace phone call. They are clearly worried. Have been told to isolate for 10 days from peak symptoms, not first, as the official guidelines state. They were far more bothered about timings, symptoms and about the date and type of vaccine I'd had than contacts. He sounded concerned that I had tested negative from first sore throat (Saturday) through to peak (Tuesday), only positive LFT on Wednesday. This was similar for the folk I very strongly suspect I caught it from. They were both also largely recovered and 4 and 6 days in by the time they recorded a positive test. Implying that the LFT may not function well for this variant. A 4 or 6 or maybe more day window between symptoms and a positive isn't great. Neither for controlling the spread, nor for the economy if everyone with a cold is now a suspected case. Have received an immediate follow up saying I am suspected omicron. Which fits with the facts, as I was, if anything, more careful in the week leading up to my booster than before. Really didn't engage in any risky close contact. It was sitting a couple of metres apart chatting for half an hour. In a group of half a dozen rather than exclusively with the infected. And we were side by side, not facing. Not great really.
Dixiedean. Your man on the infected spot.
Poor you. Inside or outside? (the original event).
Mr. Pointer, I saw Mr. Mortimer post yesterday, I think.
On F1: typically, Abu Dhabi has been tricky for passing but they have rejigged it to try and make overtaking easier. Last time out Red Bull got their tyre strategy wrong and lost pace to degradation late on. But going too long can lead to a tyre just giving up entirely, whereas a pit stop can take a lot of time.
A safety car or VSC (virtual safety car, during which drivers must be 40% slower) are 'cheap' stops because you're just as slow pitting but the cars on-track are moving slower, so you lose relatively less time. Teams will be looking to put during a safety car if they can.
But the short answer is I have no idea. One stop has normally been the way, but sometimes this year teams have been more willing to try unorthodox strategies, with mixed results.
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
Apologies - yes sorry 5600 pw - I realised this. But my point is - that 5600 will average st 20,666 from now to the end of the first quarter is massive in itself but would necessitate a MUCH larger figure somewhere in that quarter to bring up the mean to 20,666.
Total covid admissions so far. 600,000. I’m predicting omicron will add roughly 50% to that over the winter
If I say so myself, I’m still impressed by my amateur epidemiology.
This morning the best scientific brains in the country - virologists to mathematicians - came up with their predictions of deaths by omicron
Best case: 24,700
Worst case: 74,900
Last night, hours before, at about 11pm after two gins and several wines, I predicted
My case: 49,100
Absolute bullseye. Smack bang in the middle. Quite frankly the government could save squillions by sacking all their modellers and hiring me to do it once a week after dinner for about an hour. They could pay me in Tikves Barovo
Ok, I can see why you are panicking.
I hope and think you are way off.
Well, if @Leon counts as panicking then so are all the bloody modellers who have come up yet again with scary numbers and graphs.
Maybe third or is it fourth time they will get lucky and get the right numbers.
Yes but there are modellers who come up with not-scary numbers and graphs but all we hear about is the panicking ones.
HMG have been living off a stale "world-beating vaccine success" narrative for far too long imo.
To be fair, the root cause of this problem is the JCVI. They told government, no boosters are a luxury, you only need to give them to a very select group of old people.
JCVI and SAGE not meeting at all during August and SAGE only once during September is criminal.
But definitely since Zahawi went, the new vaccines minister is never seen nor appears to do anything.
On R4 at 1730: Nick Robinson talks to the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss about mounting threats abroad, whether she's modelling herself on Mrs Thatcher and why she avoided Christmas parties last year.
Just got the Test and Trace phone call. They are clearly worried. Have been told to isolate for 10 days from peak symptoms, not first, as the official guidelines state. They were far more bothered about timings, symptoms and about the date and type of vaccine I'd had than contacts. He sounded concerned that I had tested negative from first sore throat (Saturday) through to peak (Tuesday), only positive LFT on Wednesday. This was similar for the folk I very strongly suspect I caught it from. They were both also largely recovered and 4 and 6 days in by the time they recorded a positive test. Implying that the LFT may not function well for this variant. A 4 or 6 or maybe more day window between symptoms and a positive isn't great. Neither for controlling the spread, nor for the economy if everyone with a cold is now a suspected case. Have received an immediate follow up saying I am suspected omicron. Which fits with the facts, as I was, if anything, more careful in the week leading up to my booster than before. Really didn't engage in any risky close contact. It was sitting a couple of metres apart chatting for half an hour. In a group of half a dozen rather than exclusively with the infected. And we were side by side, not facing. Not great really.
Dixiedean. Your man on the infected spot.
'A 4 or 6 or maybe more day window between symptoms and a positive isn't great. Neither for controlling the spread, nor for the economy if everyone with a cold is now a suspected case.'
Thanks for that. Very concerning, especially in view of our family's Christmas arrangements.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
We (I’m a smoker) enjoy satiating the craving. It’s not really enjoyment. We look forward to the calm, pleasant sensation after getting our fix.
It’s a stupid, nasty, dangerous habit. Despite what I said in my previous post, I still wish smoking had been illegal when I was growing up. I almost certainly wouldn’t be addicted now.
I just think there’s something wrong with the way NZ is going about it.
Yes, there’s a fair amount of research showing it’s as hard to quit as the most addictive hard drugs, but far less pleasurable.
It's an insidious addiction. You mention hard drugs and funnily enough I'm toying with an idea atm whereby what I'll do is pretend I AM on hard drugs and I'll take appropriate action - go rent somewhere quiet for 2 weeks, take no cigs and none of those bullshit replacement things like patches and lozenges and gum (which are still nicotine) and then I'll go Cold Turkey as if it really were Heroin I was needing to get off to save my life. I think that might work for me. But then must not NOT slide back on return to orbit. Which is the issue, of course. A Marlboro Gold doesn't look like a needle or a spoon. It looks far less dark and dangerous. As I say - insidious. That's the word.
HMG have been living off a stale "world-beating vaccine success" narrative for far too long imo.
To be fair, the root cause of this problem is the JCVI. They told government, no boosters are a luxury, you only need to give them to a very select group of old people.
JCVI and SAGE not meeting at all during August and SAGE only once during September is criminal.
But definitely since Zahawi went, the new vaccines minister is never seen nor appears to do anything.
Advisers advise; governments decide.
No, not on something like vaccinations. You really have to have to do what they say, just like the MHRA. There is enough issue with anti-vaxxers, vaccine hesitancy etc, if you just say no we are totally overruling the scientists on this there will be hell to pay.
Lets phrase the question this way, do you trust any minister of this government to understand scientific papers on vaccine trials? If Boris stood up and say we are ignoring the advice of Professor Lim Wei Shen, I have read the studies, they look good to me....go get your shot. vroom vroooooooommmm...
You running down to get jabbed?
AND...the JCVI wouldn't decide, that was the problem. The government asked them several times and they said they couldn't give advice until a new study was completed. It was deliberate dragging their feet, because their ideological position was the rest of the world needed vaccinating before giving boosters.
Mr. Pointer, I saw Mr. Mortimer post yesterday, I think.
On F1: typically, Abu Dhabi has been tricky for passing but they have rejigged it to try and make overtaking easier. Last time out Red Bull got their tyre strategy wrong and lost pace to degradation late on. But going too long can lead to a tyre just giving up entirely, whereas a pit stop can take a lot of time.
A safety car or VSC (virtual safety car, during which drivers must be 40% slower) are 'cheap' stops because you're just as slow pitting but the cars on-track are moving slower, so you lose relatively less time. Teams will be looking to put during a safety car if they can.
But the short answer is I have no idea. One stop has normally been the way, but sometimes this year teams have been more willing to try unorthodox strategies, with mixed results.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
I know they don't. It's quelling nicotine withdrawal pangs, hitting the clock on the next lot building up until they must be quelled again. The 'pleasure' is simply relief at the temporary removal of the twitchy anxious gnawing sensation the addiction itself creates. Smokers are rats on a wheel. Ruining their health, stinking up the place, throwing their money away. Many try to convince themselves otherwise for self-esteem purposes. But it's bollocks.
Nicotine is such a pathetic addiction. Smelly and dirty, and almost zero pleasure, apart from a tiny buzz early in the habit and then just the relief of the craving. Smokers are twats
Heroin makes much more sense, in terms. Heroin brings an intense sensual and mental pleasure, the relief of all pain and anxieties, a true bliss which has been compared to a prolonged, refined orgasm. Of course the problem is the addiction which will put you on your back in a urinous stairwell within a decade, or in the grave, or in prison, unless you are lucky, but even at the end the pleasure of the hit is greater than that of a stupid fag
I never dared try harder drugs for just that reason. Agree about the idiocy of cigarettes. If I could never have started I’d have taken that - difficult to quit if you started young.
I agree with this thread. Incumbents get re-elected on delivery. Incumbents get to choose their KPIs and say, we have delivered X, Y and Z as promised - what have the opposition done for you?
Which is why Plan B is a gift from the government to Labour. Wes Streeting can say, Labour is working hard to keep you safe and the NHS protected, while the Tories argue amongst themselves.
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
Apologies - yes sorry 5600 pw - I realised this. But my point is - that 5600 will average st 20,666 from now to the end of the first quarter is massive in itself but would necessitate a MUCH larger figure somewhere in that quarter to bring up the mean to 20,666.
Total covid admissions so far. 600,000. I’m predicting omicron will add roughly 50% to that over the winter
If I say so myself, I’m still impressed by my amateur epidemiology.
This morning the best scientific brains in the country - virologists to mathematicians - came up with their predictions of deaths by omicron
Best case: 24,700
Worst case: 74,900
Last night, hours before, at about 11pm after two gins and several wines, I predicted
My case: 49,100
Absolute bullseye. Smack bang in the middle. Quite frankly the government could save squillions by sacking all their modellers and hiring me to do it once a week after dinner for about an hour. They could pay me in Tikves Barovo
None of which has actually happened yet...
You are kind of missing the point of "predictions", and also missing my point, on top. Impressive
I understand your point, you think you’ve achieved something by coming in the ball park of the modellers. Fine. Well done. However, these are the same modellers who predicted so poorly in July, and have been widely derided, not least on here. My point, I don’t buy their low and high points, so the fact that your guesstimate is in the middle means little.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
We (I’m a smoker) enjoy satiating the craving. It’s not really enjoyment. We look forward to the calm, pleasant sensation after getting our fix.
It’s a stupid, nasty, dangerous habit. Despite what I said in my previous post, I still wish smoking had been illegal when I was growing up. I almost certainly wouldn’t be addicted now.
I just think there’s something wrong with the way NZ is going about it.
Yes, there’s a fair amount of research showing it’s as hard to quit as the most addictive hard drugs, but far less pleasurable.
I heard somewhere that the 'capture rate' of cigarettes - i.e. the percentage of casual users who go on become hardcore addicts - is actually worse than heroin.
Just got the Test and Trace phone call. They are clearly worried. Have been told to isolate for 10 days from peak symptoms, not first, as the official guidelines state. They were far more bothered about timings, symptoms and about the date and type of vaccine I'd had than contacts. He sounded concerned that I had tested negative from first sore throat (Saturday) through to peak (Tuesday), only positive LFT on Wednesday. This was similar for the folk I very strongly suspect I caught it from. They were both also largely recovered and 4 and 6 days in by the time they recorded a positive test. Implying that the LFT may not function well for this variant. A 4 or 6 or maybe more day window between symptoms and a positive isn't great. Neither for controlling the spread, nor for the economy if everyone with a cold is now a suspected case. Have received an immediate follow up saying I am suspected omicron. Which fits with the facts, as I was, if anything, more careful in the week leading up to my booster than before. Really didn't engage in any risky close contact. It was sitting a couple of metres apart chatting for half an hour. In a group of half a dozen rather than exclusively with the infected. And we were side by side, not facing. Not great really.
Dixiedean. Your man on the infected spot.
'A 4 or 6 or maybe more day window between symptoms and a positive isn't great. Neither for controlling the spread, nor for the economy if everyone with a cold is now a suspected case.'
Thanks for that. Very concerning, especially in view of our family's Christmas arrangements.
Not good, but the fact that your friends recovered easily is great.
Just got the Test and Trace phone call. They are clearly worried. Have been told to isolate for 10 days from peak symptoms, not first, as the official guidelines state. They were far more bothered about timings, symptoms and about the date and type of vaccine I'd had than contacts. He sounded concerned that I had tested negative from first sore throat (Saturday) through to peak (Tuesday), only positive LFT on Wednesday. This was similar for the folk I very strongly suspect I caught it from. They were both also largely recovered and 4 and 6 days in by the time they recorded a positive test. Implying that the LFT may not function well for this variant. A 4 or 6 or maybe more day window between symptoms and a positive isn't great. Neither for controlling the spread, nor for the economy if everyone with a cold is now a suspected case. Have received an immediate follow up saying I am suspected omicron. Which fits with the facts, as I was, if anything, more careful in the week leading up to my booster than before. Really didn't engage in any risky close contact. It was sitting a couple of metres apart chatting for half an hour. In a group of half a dozen rather than exclusively with the infected. And we were side by side, not facing. Not great really.
Dixiedean. Your man on the infected spot.
Fascinating, but also, of course, frightening. My sympathies
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
We (I’m a smoker) enjoy satiating the craving. It’s not really enjoyment. We look forward to the calm, pleasant sensation after getting our fix.
It’s a stupid, nasty, dangerous habit. Despite what I said in my previous post, I still wish smoking had been illegal when I was growing up. I almost certainly wouldn’t be addicted now.
I just think there’s something wrong with the way NZ is going about it.
Yes, there’s a fair amount of research showing it’s as hard to quit as the most addictive hard drugs, but far less pleasurable.
It's an insidious addiction. You mention hard drugs and funnily enough I'm toying with an idea atm whereby what I'll do is pretend I AM on hard drugs and I'll take appropriate action - go rent somewhere quiet for 2 weeks, take no cigs and none of those bullshit replacement things like patches and lozenges and gum (which are still nicotine) and then I'll go Cold Turkey as if it really were Heroin I was needing to get off to save my life. I think that might work for me. But then must not NOT slide back on return to orbit. Which is the issue, of course. A Marlboro Gold doesn't look like a needle or a spoon. It looks far less dark and dangerous. As I say - insidious. That's the word.
I would argue that smoking is far less of a problem to society than drinking or gambling (I do all three in moderation which I think leads to a perfect existence!)). An addict at smoking is far less of a societal/family problem than an alcoholic or out of control gambler.Yes costs on NHS might be higher but less pension paid to a heavy smoker on average . Can people stop trying to ban fun FFS
HMG have been living off a stale "world-beating vaccine success" narrative for far too long imo.
To be fair, the root cause of this problem is the JCVI. They told government, no boosters are a luxury, you only need to give them to a very select group of old people.
JCVI and SAGE not meeting at all during August and SAGE only once during September is criminal.
But definitely since Zahawi went, the new vaccines minister is never seen nor appears to do anything.
Advisers advise; governments decide.
No, not on something like vaccinations. You really have to have to do what they say, just like the MHRA. There is enough issue with anti-vaxxers, vaccine hesitancy etc, if you just say no we are totally overruling the scientists on this there will be hell to pay.
Lets phrase the question this way, do you trust any minister of this government to understand scientific papers on vaccine trials? If Boris stood up and say we are ignoring Professor Lim Wei Shen, I have read the studies, they look good to me....
I guess it depends on the details. If JCVI gave a flat 100% "don't boost" or "don't vaccinate" children then you have a point. But if, as I suspect they gave the scientific pros and cons and an "on balance..." then I think HMG have to take the wider picture into account.
You're not telling me that HMG have followed every piece of Sage advice on NPIs?
I wonder if we'll ever find out the details.
Edit: JCVI/Sage not meeting at all in August - why didn't the government force them to?
HMG have been living off a stale "world-beating vaccine success" narrative for far too long imo.
To be fair, the root cause of this problem is the JCVI. They told government, no boosters are a luxury, you only need to give them to a very select group of old people.
JCVI and SAGE not meeting at all during August and SAGE only once during September is criminal.
But definitely since Zahawi went, the new vaccines minister is never seen nor appears to do anything.
Advisers advise; governments decide.
Yes, which is what Javid has done since he became Health Secretary. Hancock was completely useless, much of our lateness to vaccinate kids and get the booster programme rolling earlier is down to his lack of leadership, very much a follower. I'm told Javid lit a fire under the JCVI on day 1 and forced them into making a decision rather than prevaricate, he also narrowed their scope to just reducing infection and hospitalisation rates, before that they had a much wider remit to consider which meant they could drag out decisions for months.
What we're really missing out on is proactive outreach to 60+ people who need third doses, second doses and first doses. We should have a massive door knocking campaign explaining the benefits of getting the next dose to people who haven't had them, everything we're doing wrt vaccines is very passive and there just seems to be a lack of urgency.
HMG have been living off a stale "world-beating vaccine success" narrative for far too long imo.
To be fair, the root cause of this problem is the JCVI. They told government, no boosters are a luxury, you only need to give them to a very select group of old people.
JCVI and SAGE not meeting at all during August and SAGE only once during September is criminal.
But definitely since Zahawi went, the new vaccines minister is never seen nor appears to do anything.
Advisers advise; governments decide.
No, not on something like vaccinations. You really have to have to do what they say, just like the MHRA. There is enough issue with anti-vaxxers, vaccine hesitancy etc, if you just say no we are totally overruling the scientists on this there will be hell to pay.
Lets phrase the question this way, do you trust any minister of this government to understand scientific papers on vaccine trials? If Boris stood up and say we are ignoring Professor Lim Wei Shen, I have read the studies, they look good to me....
I guess it depends on the details. If JCVI gave a flat 100% "don't boost" or "don't vaccinate" children then you have a point. But if, as I suspect they gave the scientific pros and cons and an "on balance..." then I think HMG have to take the wider picture into account.
You're not telling me that HMG have followed every piece of Sage advice on NPIs?
I wonder if we'll ever find out the details.
For several months, they wouldn't give any advice at all, saying they needs more data. Then they gave some wishy washy advice over kids. Then again, we need to wait for more data about boosters.
The general approach via SAGE is different, as every decision is risk assessment and huge amount of unknowns and uncertainties. Medicines and vaccinations, there is a very serious process, and no Western government would dare cut the corners or not follow the exact advice.
e.g. their initial advice on boosters was not before 6 months. No government is going to say right, we are ignoring that, everybody come in 2-3 months. Its like telling people, well the scientific research says that you must only take 2 tablets a day, then Boris saying take 4 just to be certain.
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
Apologies - yes sorry 5600 pw - I realised this. But my point is - that 5600 will average st 20,666 from now to the end of the first quarter is massive in itself but would necessitate a MUCH larger figure somewhere in that quarter to bring up the mean to 20,666.
Total covid admissions so far. 600,000. I’m predicting omicron will add roughly 50% to that over the winter
If I say so myself, I’m still impressed by my amateur epidemiology.
This morning the best scientific brains in the country - virologists to mathematicians - came up with their predictions of deaths by omicron
Best case: 24,700
Worst case: 74,900
Last night, hours before, at about 11pm after two gins and several wines, I predicted
My case: 49,100
Absolute bullseye. Smack bang in the middle. Quite frankly the government could save squillions by sacking all their modellers and hiring me to do it once a week after dinner for about an hour. They could pay me in Tikves Barovo
None of which has actually happened yet...
You are kind of missing the point of "predictions", and also missing my point, on top. Impressive
I understand your point, you think you’ve achieved something by coming in the ball park of the modellers. Fine. Well done. However, these are the same modellers who predicted so poorly in July, and have been widely derided, not least on here. My point, I don’t buy their low and high points, so the fact that your guesstimate is in the middle means little.
It means I have now read so much epidemiology I can do a professional job lying on my back while half perusing XVideos and with one eye on Masterchef the Semi Final, despite having zero training
That's the point, dumbkopf
Of course, as you rightly say, it is highly arguable the professional epidemiologists are idiots who keep getting it wrong, so all that has happened is that I have joined their misguided groupthink
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Scottish Tory MPs though can get Labour and LD Unionist tactical votes v the SNP, while their counterparts south of the border have no chance of getting any tactical votes except from maybe RefUK voters
Ross is going to find it much harder persuading SLab and SLD supporters to lend the Tories their votes. Johnson is quite literally repulsive.
I was quite impressed with his forthright distancing of himself from Johnson.
Just got the Test and Trace phone call. They are clearly worried. Have been told to isolate for 10 days from peak symptoms, not first, as the official guidelines state. They were far more bothered about timings, symptoms and about the date and type of vaccine I'd had than contacts. He sounded concerned that I had tested negative from first sore throat (Saturday) through to peak (Tuesday), only positive LFT on Wednesday. This was similar for the folk I very strongly suspect I caught it from. They were both also largely recovered and 4 and 6 days in by the time they recorded a positive test. Implying that the LFT may not function well for this variant. A 4 or 6 or maybe more day window between symptoms and a positive isn't great. Neither for controlling the spread, nor for the economy if everyone with a cold is now a suspected case. Have received an immediate follow up saying I am suspected omicron. Which fits with the facts, as I was, if anything, more careful in the week leading up to my booster than before. Really didn't engage in any risky close contact. It was sitting a couple of metres apart chatting for half an hour. In a group of half a dozen rather than exclusively with the infected. And we were side by side, not facing. Not great really.
Dixiedean. Your man on the infected spot.
Very concerning for you and your family, and for the country/world tbh.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Scottish Tory MPs though can get Labour and LD Unionist tactical votes v the SNP, while their counterparts south of the border have no chance of getting any tactical votes except from maybe RefUK voters
Ross is going to find it much harder persuading SLab and SLD supporters to lend the Tories their votes. Johnson is quite literally repulsive.
I was quite impressed with his forthright distancing of himself from Johnson.
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
Thing is, damage limitation requires the UK to make concessions and publicly commit to them. Passively not doing things isn't going to work.
An example. The US apparently won't drop steel tariffs until the UK comes to agreement with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol. Quietly dropping the idea of using A16 won't be enough to get the US tariffs removed. The UK will need to make some kind of commitment to not using it by agreeing something else, which happens to be same as the Irish and EU demands.
The US tariffs aren't simply an embarrassment, in that the EU gets something the UK doesn't. UK steel firms are now at a competitive disadvantage because they have tariffs and the competition doesn't.
So the Brexiteer government must decide if it prioritises the hypothetical possibility of calling Article 16 over the future of an important industry in Red Wall seats. This can't be fudged.
On another topic it looks like the UK and Jersey will reissue the demanded French fishing licences, as predicted.
There's no point discussing whether this is good or bad. I guess for different reasons both Remainers and Leavers think it's bad, which is why there's been no market for damage limitation up to now. It's simply how things are going to be from now on. But I can see people reacting badly.
I don't see any of those being that way.
Article 16 is an article in the Treaty designed to be used in appropriate circumstances. The issue with Sleepy Joe is what constitutes a sustainable and peace-preserving arrangement. It is quite possible that Biden is talking out of his Rs, and his demands (if he has made them) undermine stability - he appears to be following a Simon Coveney lead. A16 has been built up into an existential earthquake, which is a huge exaggeration of what it is.
On Fishing some will be granted, but not all. UK Gov position will be that those granted have been where suitable evidence has been provided. Macron has been demanding 100% and indulging himself in Putin panto, and he will have to back down.
Biden has also guaranteed that the countervailing UK on USA tariffs are continued, since the steel ones were the other half of a tariff-tariff pair introduced by the USA and the EU.
I see that this morning we have a trilateral agreement on total allowable catches between UK/EU/Norway for next year.
There will inevitably be an element of "Bring the boys home and declare victory" (Vietnam reference).
It doesn't matter whether Article 16 is being misinterpreted, which is my point. Does the UK government want the steel tariffs removed, or doesn't it? The other lot don't have to be reasonable, (in my irrelevant view they aren't, particularly)
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
We (I’m a smoker) enjoy satiating the craving. It’s not really enjoyment. We look forward to the calm, pleasant sensation after getting our fix.
It’s a stupid, nasty, dangerous habit. Despite what I said in my previous post, I still wish smoking had been illegal when I was growing up. I almost certainly wouldn’t be addicted now.
I just think there’s something wrong with the way NZ is going about it.
Yes, there’s a fair amount of research showing it’s as hard to quit as the most addictive hard drugs, but far less pleasurable.
I heard somewhere that the 'capture rate' of cigarettes - i.e. the percentage of casual users who go on become hardcore addicts - is actually worse than heroin.
As a late teens/early 20's I had two strokes of luck, smoking-wise, although I didn't think one of them was at the time. At nineteen or so I had a girl-friend who smoked; one of the activities we enjoyed together. Sadly she went off to Uni and MET SOMEONE ELSE, and in trying to get over her I stopped smoking for about six months. However, when I went off to study and started again an older fellow student advised that if I didn't smoke until after 11am I probably would be able to give it up easily when I wanted to. And indeed, so it proved.
"It is understood that Sunak was not at the event and was not aware of it taking place at the time."
I live in a detached house in its own grounds. When a celebration occurs next door I can hear it from 100 metres away. Didn't Sunak or Johnson ask for the noise to be turned down? Or is Carrie's wallpaper so sound insulation efficient they couldn't hear anything?
As I understand it Sunak doesn't live in Downing Street. Boris on the other hand....he doesn't have a leg to stand on, as his diary says he was away during the day, but back in London the evening of the big piss up.
Does the Chancellor stay in the flat when he has been on the lash at a works party ... I mean late working breakfast?
AFIK Dishy Rishi doesn't drink.
He does. Drinks the tears from the howls of anguish of Boris's team as he outmanoeuvres them again and again.
Drinking alcohol is, I understand, discouraged among Hindu's. Although I've known Hindu's who did, although rarely to excess.
Have you ever met any Indian cricket fans? Restraint is not the first word that comes to mind.
Yes. Agree. Noisy with it, too. However I've also been to a couple of Hindu weddings which were 'dry'. Much to the discomfort of some of the British guests.
No such worries at Sikh weddings. Usually a bottle of Bacardi and a bottle of Chivas Regal plonked down in the middle of each table.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
We (I’m a smoker) enjoy satiating the craving. It’s not really enjoyment. We look forward to the calm, pleasant sensation after getting our fix.
It’s a stupid, nasty, dangerous habit. Despite what I said in my previous post, I still wish smoking had been illegal when I was growing up. I almost certainly wouldn’t be addicted now.
I just think there’s something wrong with the way NZ is going about it.
Yes, there’s a fair amount of research showing it’s as hard to quit as the most addictive hard drugs, but far less pleasurable.
It's an insidious addiction. You mention hard drugs and funnily enough I'm toying with an idea atm whereby what I'll do is pretend I AM on hard drugs and I'll take appropriate action - go rent somewhere quiet for 2 weeks, take no cigs and none of those bullshit replacement things like patches and lozenges and gum (which are still nicotine) and then I'll go Cold Turkey as if it really were Heroin I was needing to get off to save my life. I think that might work for me. But then must not NOT slide back on return to orbit. Which is the issue, of course. A Marlboro Gold doesn't look like a needle or a spoon. It looks far less dark and dangerous. As I say - insidious. That's the word.
Do it. Just decide it’s going to kill you if you don’t stop (fairly likely) and stop. You’ll feel crap for a few days, but a lot better within a fortnight just from cutting out the continuous inhalation of carbon monoxide.
Just got the Test and Trace phone call. They are clearly worried. Have been told to isolate for 10 days from peak symptoms, not first, as the official guidelines state. They were far more bothered about timings, symptoms and about the date and type of vaccine I'd had than contacts. He sounded concerned that I had tested negative from first sore throat (Saturday) through to peak (Tuesday), only positive LFT on Wednesday. This was similar for the folk I very strongly suspect I caught it from. They were both also largely recovered and 4 and 6 days in by the time they recorded a positive test. Implying that the LFT may not function well for this variant. A 4 or 6 or maybe more day window between symptoms and a positive isn't great. Neither for controlling the spread, nor for the economy if everyone with a cold is now a suspected case. Have received an immediate follow up saying I am suspected omicron. Which fits with the facts, as I was, if anything, more careful in the week leading up to my booster than before. Really didn't engage in any risky close contact. It was sitting a couple of metres apart chatting for half an hour. In a group of half a dozen rather than exclusively with the infected. And we were side by side, not facing. Not great really.
Dixiedean. Your man on the infected spot.
'A 4 or 6 or maybe more day window between symptoms and a positive isn't great. Neither for controlling the spread, nor for the economy if everyone with a cold is now a suspected case.'
Thanks for that. Very concerning, especially in view of our family's Christmas arrangements.
Not good, but the fact that your friends recovered easily is great.
Not my friends, but dixiedeans. Agree, though about recovery.
HMG have been living off a stale "world-beating vaccine success" narrative for far too long imo.
To be fair, the root cause of this problem is the JCVI. They told government, no boosters are a luxury, you only need to give them to a very select group of old people.
JCVI and SAGE not meeting at all during August and SAGE only once during September is criminal.
But definitely since Zahawi went, the new vaccines minister is never seen nor appears to do anything.
Advisers advise; governments decide.
Yes, which is what Javid has done since he became Health Secretary. Hancock was completely useless, much of our lateness to vaccinate kids and get the booster programme rolling earlier is down to his lack of leadership, very much a follower. I'm told Javid lit a fire under the JCVI on day 1 and forced them into making a decision rather than prevaricate, he also narrowed their scope to just reducing infection and hospitalisation rates, before that they had a much wider remit to consider which meant they could drag out decisions for months.
What we're really missing out on is proactive outreach to 60+ people who need third doses, second doses and first doses. We should have a massive door knocking campaign explaining the benefits of getting the next dose to people who haven't had them, everything we're doing wrt vaccines is very passive and there just seems to be a lack of urgency.
This is definitely true, but the government couldn't go against for instance their recommendations on 6 months before a booster. Such "advice" can't be overruled, it isn't optional for any government, just as they couldn't allow vaccinations before they had been fully reviewed, although I am sure they knew they were safe and effective and would have loved to save more lives.
What is lacking now is Zawahi seemed very proactive in getting jab rates up. The current vaccines minister, I have to google to remember, Thorpe?, totally invisible...
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
We (I’m a smoker) enjoy satiating the craving. It’s not really enjoyment. We look forward to the calm, pleasant sensation after getting our fix.
It’s a stupid, nasty, dangerous habit. Despite what I said in my previous post, I still wish smoking had been illegal when I was growing up. I almost certainly wouldn’t be addicted now.
I just think there’s something wrong with the way NZ is going about it.
Yes, there’s a fair amount of research showing it’s as hard to quit as the most addictive hard drugs, but far less pleasurable.
It's an insidious addiction. You mention hard drugs and funnily enough I'm toying with an idea atm whereby what I'll do is pretend I AM on hard drugs and I'll take appropriate action - go rent somewhere quiet for 2 weeks, take no cigs and none of those bullshit replacement things like patches and lozenges and gum (which are still nicotine) and then I'll go Cold Turkey as if it really were Heroin I was needing to get off to save my life. I think that might work for me. But then must not NOT slide back on return to orbit. Which is the issue, of course. A Marlboro Gold doesn't look like a needle or a spoon. It looks far less dark and dangerous. As I say - insidious. That's the word.
I would argue that smoking is far less of a problem to society than drinking or gambling (I do all three in moderation which I think leads to a perfect existence!)). An addict at smoking is far less of a societal/family problem than an alcoholic or out of control gambler.Yes costs on NHS might be higher but less pension paid to a heavy smoker on average . Can people stop trying to ban fun FFS
Not so much of a problem to society, just the poor sods who smoke.
Which is why Hunt is in with a shout, as one of the tiny number of possible PMs who is not mad, and unassociated with this government.
He has also had a "good COVID". Yes the criticism of why weren't better plans during his time at DoH (although it seems most expert stuff was about flu related outbreak), but during the past 18 months, he has done a better job than the opposition of constructive criticism.
Hunt would be the "cut the losses" candidate- he'd be a better PM than BoJo or the cabinet alternatives, but he would lose in 2024, because he couldn't attempt to keep the 2019 coalition going.
I suspect he'd lose by less than BoJo or Truss, and it would start the clock on the post Johnson era, but he'd lose.
And the Conservatives don't seem ready to start on that journey yet.
(My guess- the problem will be seen as Boris, not Johnsonism, which points to Truss getting the job. Which would be unwise.)
HMG have been living off a stale "world-beating vaccine success" narrative for far too long imo.
To be fair, the root cause of this problem is the JCVI. They told government, no boosters are a luxury, you only need to give them to a very select group of old people.
JCVI and SAGE not meeting at all during August and SAGE only once during September is criminal.
But definitely since Zahawi went, the new vaccines minister is never seen nor appears to do anything.
Advisers advise; governments decide.
Yes, which is what Javid has done since he became Health Secretary. Hancock was completely useless, much of our lateness to vaccinate kids and get the booster programme rolling earlier is down to his lack of leadership, very much a follower. I'm told Javid lit a fire under the JCVI on day 1 and forced them into making a decision rather than prevaricate, he also narrowed their scope to just reducing infection and hospitalisation rates, before that they had a much wider remit to consider which meant they could drag out decisions for months.
What we're really missing out on is proactive outreach to 60+ people who need third doses, second doses and first doses. We should have a massive door knocking campaign explaining the benefits of getting the next dose to people who haven't had them, everything we're doing wrt vaccines is very passive and there just seems to be a lack of urgency.
This is definitely true, but the government couldn't go against for instance their recommendations on 6 months before a booster.
What is lacking now is Zawahi seemed very proactive in getting jab rates up. The current vaccines minister, I have to google to remember, Thorpe?, totally invisible...
Chewed up and spat out on QT a week or so ago, IIRC.
And hopefully the Tories will be aware of my £20 bet at 250/1 on Sunak being the next PM
I backed him (larger stake than you!) beginning November 2019, after hearing him interviewed by Nick Robinson on Political Thinking podcast.
I'm pleased I keep a record of all my bets as I see that Ladbrokes don't allow you to see unsettled bets placed over a year ago - which is rather concerning.
Just got the Test and Trace phone call. They are clearly worried. Have been told to isolate for 10 days from peak symptoms, not first, as the official guidelines state. They were far more bothered about timings, symptoms and about the date and type of vaccine I'd had than contacts. He sounded concerned that I had tested negative from first sore throat (Saturday) through to peak (Tuesday), only positive LFT on Wednesday. This was similar for the folk I very strongly suspect I caught it from. They were both also largely recovered and 4 and 6 days in by the time they recorded a positive test. Implying that the LFT may not function well for this variant. A 4 or 6 or maybe more day window between symptoms and a positive isn't great. Neither for controlling the spread, nor for the economy if everyone with a cold is now a suspected case. Have received an immediate follow up saying I am suspected omicron. Which fits with the facts, as I was, if anything, more careful in the week leading up to my booster than before. Really didn't engage in any risky close contact. It was sitting a couple of metres apart chatting for half an hour. In a group of half a dozen rather than exclusively with the infected. And we were side by side, not facing. Not great really.
Dixiedean. Your man on the infected spot.
Poor you. Inside or outside? (the original event).
HMG have been living off a stale "world-beating vaccine success" narrative for far too long imo.
To be fair, the root cause of this problem is the JCVI. They told government, no boosters are a luxury, you only need to give them to a very select group of old people.
JCVI and SAGE not meeting at all during August and SAGE only once during September is criminal.
But definitely since Zahawi went, the new vaccines minister is never seen nor appears to do anything.
Advisers advise; governments decide.
Yes, which is what Javid has done since he became Health Secretary. Hancock was completely useless, much of our lateness to vaccinate kids and get the booster programme rolling earlier is down to his lack of leadership, very much a follower. I'm told Javid lit a fire under the JCVI on day 1 and forced them into making a decision rather than prevaricate, he also narrowed their scope to just reducing infection and hospitalisation rates, before that they had a much wider remit to consider which meant they could drag out decisions for months.
What we're really missing out on is proactive outreach to 60+ people who need third doses, second doses and first doses. We should have a massive door knocking campaign explaining the benefits of getting the next dose to people who haven't had them, everything we're doing wrt vaccines is very passive and there just seems to be a lack of urgency.
This is definitely true, but the government couldn't go against for instance their recommendations on 6 months before a booster.
What is lacking now is Zawahi seemed very proactive in getting jab rates up. The current vaccines minister, I have to google to remember, Thorpe?, totally invisible...
Chewed up and spat out on QT a week or so ago, IIRC.
The fact she was wasting her time on QT says it all....we need to get vaccinations up to way over 500k a day, and dicking about on a tv show nobody watches, while I bet spending at least a day prepping for it.
Bizarre protest in a shopping centre in Dundee today by anti-vaxxers protesting against mandatory vaccination. Well organised, professional looking signs etc.
Evolution and Darwinianism is all very well but its not a short term solution, is it?
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
We (I’m a smoker) enjoy satiating the craving. It’s not really enjoyment. We look forward to the calm, pleasant sensation after getting our fix.
It’s a stupid, nasty, dangerous habit. Despite what I said in my previous post, I still wish smoking had been illegal when I was growing up. I almost certainly wouldn’t be addicted now.
I just think there’s something wrong with the way NZ is going about it.
Yes, there’s a fair amount of research showing it’s as hard to quit as the most addictive hard drugs, but far less pleasurable.
It's an insidious addiction. You mention hard drugs and funnily enough I'm toying with an idea atm whereby what I'll do is pretend I AM on hard drugs and I'll take appropriate action - go rent somewhere quiet for 2 weeks, take no cigs and none of those bullshit replacement things like patches and lozenges and gum (which are still nicotine) and then I'll go Cold Turkey as if it really were Heroin I was needing to get off to save my life. I think that might work for me. But then must not NOT slide back on return to orbit. Which is the issue, of course. A Marlboro Gold doesn't look like a needle or a spoon. It looks far less dark and dangerous. As I say - insidious. That's the word.
I would argue that smoking is far less of a problem to society than drinking or gambling (I do all three in moderation which I think leads to a perfect existence!)). An addict at smoking is far less of a societal/family problem than an alcoholic or out of control gambler.Yes costs on NHS might be higher but less pension paid to a heavy smoker on average . Can people stop trying to ban fun FFS
Not so much of a problem to society, just the poor sods who smoke.
Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild
Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt
Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?
Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that
But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed
Just got the Test and Trace phone call. They are clearly worried. Have been told to isolate for 10 days from peak symptoms, not first, as the official guidelines state. They were far more bothered about timings, symptoms and about the date and type of vaccine I'd had than contacts. He sounded concerned that I had tested negative from first sore throat (Saturday) through to peak (Tuesday), only positive LFT on Wednesday. This was similar for the folk I very strongly suspect I caught it from. They were both also largely recovered and 4 and 6 days in by the time they recorded a positive test. Implying that the LFT may not function well for this variant. A 4 or 6 or maybe more day window between symptoms and a positive isn't great. Neither for controlling the spread, nor for the economy if everyone with a cold is now a suspected case. Have received an immediate follow up saying I am suspected omicron. Which fits with the facts, as I was, if anything, more careful in the week leading up to my booster than before. Really didn't engage in any risky close contact. It was sitting a couple of metres apart chatting for half an hour. In a group of half a dozen rather than exclusively with the infected. And we were side by side, not facing. Not great really.
Dixiedean. Your man on the infected spot.
'A 4 or 6 or maybe more day window between symptoms and a positive isn't great. Neither for controlling the spread, nor for the economy if everyone with a cold is now a suspected case.'
Thanks for that. Very concerning, especially in view of our family's Christmas arrangements.
Yep. Our small cluster of 4 linked cases all had the same experience. Cold symptoms. Runny nose, sore throat. Multiple negative tests ranging from 4 to 6 days. Feel rough at the peak at the peak of it. Then test positive as we have turned the corner. There was a span of 8 days between the first of us positive and the last, so we knew to keep testing as we all had similar staggered symptoms.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
We (I’m a smoker) enjoy satiating the craving. It’s not really enjoyment. We look forward to the calm, pleasant sensation after getting our fix.
It’s a stupid, nasty, dangerous habit. Despite what I said in my previous post, I still wish smoking had been illegal when I was growing up. I almost certainly wouldn’t be addicted now.
I just think there’s something wrong with the way NZ is going about it.
Yes, there’s a fair amount of research showing it’s as hard to quit as the most addictive hard drugs, but far less pleasurable.
It's an insidious addiction. You mention hard drugs and funnily enough I'm toying with an idea atm whereby what I'll do is pretend I AM on hard drugs and I'll take appropriate action - go rent somewhere quiet for 2 weeks, take no cigs and none of those bullshit replacement things like patches and lozenges and gum (which are still nicotine) and then I'll go Cold Turkey as if it really were Heroin I was needing to get off to save my life. I think that might work for me. But then must not NOT slide back on return to orbit. Which is the issue, of course. A Marlboro Gold doesn't look like a needle or a spoon. It looks far less dark and dangerous. As I say - insidious. That's the word.
I would argue that smoking is far less of a problem to society than drinking or gambling (I do all three in moderation which I think leads to a perfect existence!)). An addict at smoking is far less of a societal/family problem than an alcoholic or out of control gambler.Yes costs on NHS might be higher but less pension paid to a heavy smoker on average . Can people stop trying to ban fun FFS
Not so much of a problem to society, just the poor sods who smoke.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
We (I’m a smoker) enjoy satiating the craving. It’s not really enjoyment. We look forward to the calm, pleasant sensation after getting our fix.
It’s a stupid, nasty, dangerous habit. Despite what I said in my previous post, I still wish smoking had been illegal when I was growing up. I almost certainly wouldn’t be addicted now.
I just think there’s something wrong with the way NZ is going about it.
Yes, there’s a fair amount of research showing it’s as hard to quit as the most addictive hard drugs, but far less pleasurable.
I heard somewhere that the 'capture rate' of cigarettes - i.e. the percentage of casual users who go on become hardcore addicts - is actually worse than heroin.
As a late teens/early 20's I had two strokes of luck, smoking-wise, although I didn't think one of them was at the time. At nineteen or so I had a girl-friend who smoked; one of the activities we enjoyed together. Sadly she went off to Uni and MET SOMEONE ELSE, and in trying to get over her I stopped smoking for about six months. However, when I went off to study and started again an older fellow student advised that if I didn't smoke until after 11am I probably would be able to give it up easily when I wanted to. And indeed, so it proved.
Nice one and - yes - lucky. I bet you'd have kicked it anyway in middle age but it would've been harder.
And if you hadn't you probably wouldn't now be OLD King Cole.
Just got the Test and Trace phone call. They are clearly worried. Have been told to isolate for 10 days from peak symptoms, not first, as the official guidelines state. They were far more bothered about timings, symptoms and about the date and type of vaccine I'd had than contacts. He sounded concerned that I had tested negative from first sore throat (Saturday) through to peak (Tuesday), only positive LFT on Wednesday. This was similar for the folk I very strongly suspect I caught it from. They were both also largely recovered and 4 and 6 days in by the time they recorded a positive test. Implying that the LFT may not function well for this variant. A 4 or 6 or maybe more day window between symptoms and a positive isn't great. Neither for controlling the spread, nor for the economy if everyone with a cold is now a suspected case. Have received an immediate follow up saying I am suspected omicron. Which fits with the facts, as I was, if anything, more careful in the week leading up to my booster than before. Really didn't engage in any risky close contact. It was sitting a couple of metres apart chatting for half an hour. In a group of half a dozen rather than exclusively with the infected. And we were side by side, not facing. Not great really.
Dixiedean. Your man on the infected spot.
Poor you. Inside or outside? (the original event).
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
We (I’m a smoker) enjoy satiating the craving. It’s not really enjoyment. We look forward to the calm, pleasant sensation after getting our fix.
It’s a stupid, nasty, dangerous habit. Despite what I said in my previous post, I still wish smoking had been illegal when I was growing up. I almost certainly wouldn’t be addicted now.
I just think there’s something wrong with the way NZ is going about it.
Yes, there’s a fair amount of research showing it’s as hard to quit as the most addictive hard drugs, but far less pleasurable.
It's an insidious addiction. You mention hard drugs and funnily enough I'm toying with an idea atm whereby what I'll do is pretend I AM on hard drugs and I'll take appropriate action - go rent somewhere quiet for 2 weeks, take no cigs and none of those bullshit replacement things like patches and lozenges and gum (which are still nicotine) and then I'll go Cold Turkey as if it really were Heroin I was needing to get off to save my life. I think that might work for me. But then must not NOT slide back on return to orbit. Which is the issue, of course. A Marlboro Gold doesn't look like a needle or a spoon. It looks far less dark and dangerous. As I say - insidious. That's the word.
I would argue that smoking is far less of a problem to society than drinking or gambling (I do all three in moderation which I think leads to a perfect existence!)). An addict at smoking is far less of a societal/family problem than an alcoholic or out of control gambler.Yes costs on NHS might be higher but less pension paid to a heavy smoker on average . Can people stop trying to ban fun FFS
Not so much of a problem to society, just the poor sods who smoke.
Tell that to Roy Castle and all the other victims of passive smoking ...
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
We (I’m a smoker) enjoy satiating the craving. It’s not really enjoyment. We look forward to the calm, pleasant sensation after getting our fix.
It’s a stupid, nasty, dangerous habit. Despite what I said in my previous post, I still wish smoking had been illegal when I was growing up. I almost certainly wouldn’t be addicted now.
I just think there’s something wrong with the way NZ is going about it.
Yes, there’s a fair amount of research showing it’s as hard to quit as the most addictive hard drugs, but far less pleasurable.
A very interesting point if true. Millions of people have managed to get themselves off nicotine without treatment, rehab, court orders, suicide, hallucinations, terrors, pink elephants, tremors and a media telling us it can't be done without massively expensive intervention.
Something a bit more cheering. A boffin who predicted US Covid deaths very accurately early on, and was also unpopularly pessimistic about variants, is more upbeat about Omicron. Reckons it is probably mild, maybe very mild
Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt
Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?
Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that
But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed
CNN has long since become about proper news who role is to educate the Americans about important news from around the world. It is increasingly become a left of centre Fox News e.g. the other day they were banging on about the Fox News Christmas tree being burned down by some nutter tying it in with the Capitol Hill riots....
Comments
I hope and think you are way off.
Wifey says she is ok. Thumping headache and coughing but functional. Daughter has been fine for days, son will be happy to bin off the last week of school.
Appreciate the positive messages everyone. Have taken the abrupt scrapping of my plans for more dollah with a wry smile - if I am lucky Hilton will give me back my points for tonight's stay having rung to cancel and telling they why.
COVID-19 Restrictions Generator
https://koronawirus.lol/en/
Hopefully I'll be able to work out what's going on.
https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1469606730933932035?s=20
409,760 booster vaccinations in Flag of United Kingdom exc Wales yesterday (372,557 the previous Friday)
Flag of England 362,502
Flag of Scotland 36,014
NI 11,244
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1469675418055843842?s=20
Edit: I see he posted on 8 December, so he's alive an kicking!
If Boris goes Sunak remains the only viable alternative who has a net positive rating still, at least with Yougov
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Jeremy_Hunt
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Rishi_Sunak
But what is interesting is how exactly my *panicked* and entirely amateur predictions align with those of the best epidemiological brains in the country
I plucked mine of out of thin air after thinking for about 20minutes, slightly tipsy, near midnight. Theirs took days of pondering with computers and models in the labs, no doubt. Yet, precisely the same
And with Perez just behind on the softs, the start is not risk free. Also Red Bull have strategy options not longer available to Mercedes with Bottas so far back.
Lockdown when: 3rd Jan. (Hard lockdown, schools, pubs shut etc etc - the works)
Lockdown how long: 8 weeks
No idea about hospitalisations and deaths. I will have a look at the models when I have more time.
The lockdown will cost Johnson his job I suspect.
Maybe third or is it fourth time they will get lucky and get the right numbers.
Article 16 is an article in the Treaty designed to be used in appropriate circumstances. The issue with Sleepy Joe is what constitutes a sustainable and peace-preserving arrangement. It is quite possible that Biden is talking out of his Rs, and his demands (if he has made them) undermine stability - he appears to be following a Simon Coveney lead. A16 has been built up into an existential earthquake, which is a huge exaggeration of what it is.
On Fishing some will be granted, but not all. UK Gov position will be that those granted have been where suitable evidence has been provided. Macron has been demanding 100% and indulging himself in Putin panto, and he will have to back down.
Biden has also guaranteed that the countervailing UK on USA tariffs are continued, since the steel ones were the other half of a tariff-tariff pair introduced by the USA and the EU.
I see that this morning we have a trilateral agreement on total allowable catches between UK/EU/Norway for next year.
Very glad I did.
I am concerned that the nudge policy to maximise vaccination rates has veered off into a much more vigorous heckling and I think this is counter-productive. They will dig their heels in now out of stubbornness. If they think they are being relegated to second-class citizens rather than being allowed to make their own decisions there will be trouble.
Just got the Test and Trace phone call. They are clearly worried.
Have been told to isolate for 10 days from peak symptoms, not first, as the official guidelines state.
They were far more bothered about timings, symptoms and about the date and type of vaccine I'd had than contacts.
He sounded concerned that I had tested negative from first sore throat (Saturday) through to peak (Tuesday), only positive LFT on Wednesday.
This was similar for the folk I very strongly suspect I caught it from. They were both also largely recovered and 4 and 6 days in by the time they recorded a positive test. Implying that the LFT may not function well for this variant.
A 4 or 6 or maybe more day window between symptoms and a positive isn't great. Neither for controlling the spread, nor for the economy if everyone with a cold is now a suspected case.
Have received an immediate follow up saying I am suspected omicron. Which fits with the facts, as I was, if anything, more careful in the week leading up to my booster than before. Really didn't engage in any risky close contact. It was sitting a couple of metres apart chatting for half an hour. In a group of half a dozen rather than exclusively with the infected. And we were side by side, not facing.
Not great really.
Dixiedean. Your man on the infected spot.
Heroin makes much more sense, in terms. Heroin brings an intense sensual and mental pleasure, the relief of all pain and anxieties, a true bliss which has been compared to a prolonged, refined orgasm. Of course the problem is the addiction which will put you on your back in a urinous stairwell within a decade, or in the grave, or in prison, unless you are lucky, but even at the end the pleasure of the hit is greater than that of a stupid fag
JCVI and SAGE not meeting at all during August and SAGE only once during September is criminal. To only in October starting to talk about the need to model the winter ahead is just mad.
It should have been school kids during summer holidays, boosters from September.
But definitely since Zahawi went, the new vaccines minister is never seen nor appears to do anything.
However I've also been to a couple of Hindu weddings which were 'dry'. Much to the discomfort of some of the British guests.
On F1: typically, Abu Dhabi has been tricky for passing but they have rejigged it to try and make overtaking easier. Last time out Red Bull got their tyre strategy wrong and lost pace to degradation late on. But going too long can lead to a tyre just giving up entirely, whereas a pit stop can take a lot of time.
A safety car or VSC (virtual safety car, during which drivers must be 40% slower) are 'cheap' stops because you're just as slow pitting but the cars on-track are moving slower, so you lose relatively less time. Teams will be looking to put during a safety car if they can.
But the short answer is I have no idea. One stop has normally been the way, but sometimes this year teams have been more willing to try unorthodox strategies, with mixed results.
Thanks for that. Very concerning, especially in view of our family's Christmas arrangements.
Lets phrase the question this way, do you trust any minister of this government to understand scientific papers on vaccine trials? If Boris stood up and say we are ignoring the advice of Professor Lim Wei Shen, I have read the studies, they look good to me....go get your shot. vroom vroooooooommmm...
You running down to get jabbed?
AND...the JCVI wouldn't decide, that was the problem. The government asked them several times and they said they couldn't give advice until a new study was completed. It was deliberate dragging their feet, because their ideological position was the rest of the world needed vaccinating before giving boosters.
Agree about the idiocy of cigarettes. If I could never have started I’d have taken that - difficult to quit if you started young.
Which is why Plan B is a gift from the government to Labour. Wes Streeting can say, Labour is working hard to keep you safe and the NHS protected, while the Tories argue amongst themselves.
https://mobile.twitter.com/NIHargrave/status/1469663533356965889
However, these are the same modellers who predicted so poorly in July, and have been widely derided, not least on here.
My point, I don’t buy their low and high points, so the fact that your guesstimate is in the middle means little.
They do sound worried about Omicron
Get well soon, old boy
You're not telling me that HMG have followed every piece of Sage advice on NPIs?
I wonder if we'll ever find out the details.
Edit: JCVI/Sage not meeting at all in August - why didn't the government force them to?
What we're really missing out on is proactive outreach to 60+ people who need third doses, second doses and first doses. We should have a massive door knocking campaign explaining the benefits of getting the next dose to people who haven't had them, everything we're doing wrt vaccines is very passive and there just seems to be a lack of urgency.
The general approach via SAGE is different, as every decision is risk assessment and huge amount of unknowns and uncertainties. Medicines and vaccinations, there is a very serious process, and no Western government would dare cut the corners or not follow the exact advice.
e.g. their initial advice on boosters was not before 6 months. No government is going to say right, we are ignoring that, everybody come in 2-3 months. Its like telling people, well the scientific research says that you must only take 2 tablets a day, then Boris saying take 4 just to be certain.
That's the point, dumbkopf
Of course, as you rightly say, it is highly arguable the professional epidemiologists are idiots who keep getting it wrong, so all that has happened is that I have joined their misguided groupthink
Get well soon!
It doesn't matter whether Article 16 is being misinterpreted, which is my point. Does the UK government want the steel tariffs removed, or doesn't it? The other lot don't have to be reasonable, (in my irrelevant view they aren't, particularly)
I presume rumours of a red top having incriminating photos are... just that, rumours?
Just decide it’s going to kill you if you don’t stop (fairly likely) and stop.
You’ll feel crap for a few days, but a lot better within a fortnight just from cutting out the continuous inhalation of carbon monoxide.
Agree, though about recovery.
What is lacking now is Zawahi seemed very proactive in getting jab rates up. The current vaccines minister, I have to google to remember, Thorpe?, totally invisible...
I suspect he'd lose by less than BoJo or Truss, and it would start the clock on the post Johnson era, but he'd lose.
And the Conservatives don't seem ready to start on that journey yet.
(My guess- the problem will be seen as Boris, not Johnsonism, which points to Truss getting the job. Which would be unwise.)
I'm pleased I keep a record of all my bets as I see that Ladbrokes don't allow you to see unsettled bets placed over a year ago - which is rather concerning.
Evolution and Darwinianism is all very well but its not a short term solution, is it?
Thanks Stodgy!
I was psychically trying to force the line off to the right 😆
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html
Caveat: he also admits he knows even less about this disease then he did a year ago, which is a pretty big pinch of salt
Otherwise there is almost nothing about Omicron on the CNN website. @moonshine is right. It is absent from much international media, even tho it dominates ours. Why is this?
Maybe it is just timing. Omicron has arrived here first (thanks to our many international links, and better sequencing) so we are alerted first. Also, lots of other countries - esp Europe - are still focused on Delta, and their own battles with that
But look at Le Monde. It's not even talking about Delta. Poignantly, for those Scot Nats and Remoaners who believe we think constantly about them while they are barely aware of us, its most read story is about Boris Johnson's party, and one of its main stories if the Brexit fishing squabble. They are obsessed
https://www.lemonde.fr/
Then test positive as we have turned the corner. There was a span of 8 days between the first of us positive and the last, so we knew to keep testing as we all had similar staggered symptoms.
And if you hadn't you probably wouldn't now be OLD King Cole.
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/business/2021/12/09/fox-news-coverage-christmas-tree-arson-outrage-brianna-keilar-roll-the-tape-newday-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/stories-worth-watching/