Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
You are probably right. But that is not really enough for me to commit any money to it. The rewards may be greater backing a horse this far out but the risks are also far greater.
It is very difficult coming to a view on this. As long as BJ is seen as an election winner then he should be safe. Next Thursday might change that though I believe the current betting odds very much overstate LD chances. At GE2019 they were 52.7% behind the Tories so it will take a 26.4% CON-LD swing
Yep.
I was a bit spooked by Pip’s header, worried it would move the market. Ever since the LD’s went odds on, the cons looked value to me.
So I went in deep last night, over a grand @ 2/1
The thing I worry most about is that someone is sitting on a constituency poll.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
FPT it’s a very slippery slope when you start judging people for needing the NHS. When does it end?
@Leon guzzles booze like nobody’s business. That’s a positive act that is likely to be an NHS resource drain in the future. Driving a car at 120mph is also a positive act. Refusing a vaccine is an omission.
It feels profoundly wrong to force people to put something into their own body.
I say this as someone who has had an operation cancelled 3 times already due to NHS pressures. 4th attempt is currently scheduled for Monday.
Except you're talking about compulsion in a situation of dire national emergency as if it were a totally novel and unprecedented moral outrage. It isn't.
Not so very long ago, millions of our forebears were conscripted to fight in wars. When society was faced with an existential threat, it demanded, amongst other things, that young people fight in battles and get blown up, shot through the head or drown in icy cold seas. And if you were called up then, unless you had a very good excuse (e.g. a reserved occupation or being medically unfit) then you bloody well went. The small minority of hardcore pacifists who refused to do service of any kind were complete social pariahs who ended up imprisoned.
Fast forward a few decades and now it's considered unforgivable to ask people to have a scratch on the arm every three or six months so as to try and avoid the entire bloody country ending up under house arrest for months on end, with the education of the nation's children wrecked, otherwise viable businesses driven to the wall en masse, and the state hurtling every closer to the cliff edge of bankruptcy into the bargain.
And if the cost of your repeated cancelled operations was that you ended up dead, I doubt your surviving relatives would feel so sanguine about this problem.
I still profoundly disagree. I think people are panicking and trying to find someone, anyone, to ‘blame’ and in doing so are retreating to a level of authoritarianism to impose this panic on others.
The country does not need to be under house arrest. We’re very highly vaccinated. Thats good. The odd person who isn’t isnt going to make a difference.
But of course keep blaming others
People are scared. Some of the virus. Others of another lockdown. Yet others of societal disorder if there is another lockdown. Of the effect on their mental health. On their physical health. On their personal finances. On their kids' education and future. The common factor is fear as a result of the uncertainty and lack of control. After two years of it. And six months when many have thought it over, it is too much to process. Hence panic. And the febrile atmosphere on here and elsewhere. Doesn't help that it has sunk in with most that our leader isn't up to it.
I've got to say, I'm feeling pretty level right now. But perhaps it's because I was never fooled into thinking it was over. I do understand the concerns, though. Just not feeling scared like I was in March 2020.
+1
Has Snowflake Sean awoken from his drunken slumber yet?
He's never drunk, he just sometimes has a little too much "miso".
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Scottish Tory MPs though can get Labour and LD Unionist tactical votes v the SNP, while their counterparts south of the border have no chance of getting any tactical votes except from maybe RefUK voters
Ross is going to find it much harder persuading SLab and SLD supporters to lend the Tories their votes. Johnson is quite literally repulsive.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
My virulent anti-vaxxer friend is now on day 9 in ICU. He seems to be getting better, so will no doubt convince himself that it was better than getting jabbed.
He and his wife were also rabidly anti-Trump. How they square the circle of being in the same camp as the Republican nutters is beyond me.
Rather than smoking regs, more like those who used to drink and drive. You stood a real chance of being wiped out by some selfish arse who genuinely thought they drove just as well pissed as sober. Thankfully, Darwinism has pretty much seen off the remaining stump of those idiots. As it will Covid. Just don't expect a functioning NHS until it has.
Hello, Mark, sorry to greet you with this but -
People can't be "rabidly" anti-Trump. To use that word for passionate anti-Trumpery is telling me you have still not entirely shrugged off your 'guilty pleasure' regard for him.
Hello from York. Mrs RP has Covid. My debauchery weekend is scrapped, all the money spent is sunk and instead I spend even more money to travel home for 10 days of isolation, nursing and likely the pox myself.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The unknown factor for Rishi is just who would be in his cabinet as that would indicate his direction of travel
Presumably Truss would be Chancellor. Hard to see a role for Patel. I suspect he’d call an end to the Tory Brexit wars. Elevate a Tugenhardt, bring back Greg Clark and Hunt types. Some new blood. Leave Javid where he is for continuity on such an important brief. Switch out JRM and find a role for a Steve Baker.
I was with you all the way until just before "find a role for Steve Baker".
Ending the war doesn’t mean filling Cabinet only with Remainers. And Baker is going to be important in the party in managing the shift to covid endemic policy.
I wasn't rely thinking about Leavers or Remainers. I was merely considering the sensible and the congenitally moronic. Steve seems to dovetail nicely into the latter category.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Scottish Tory MPs though can get Labour and LD Unionist tactical votes v the SNP, while their counterparts south of the border have no chance of getting any tactical votes except from maybe RefUK voters
Ross is going to find it much harder persuading SLab and SLD supporters to lend the Tories their votes. Johnson is quite literally repulsive.
Yet even with Boris Tory leader and PM, the Scottish Conservatives held Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, Eastwood, Dumfries and Galloway etc at Holyrood in May thanks to SLab and SLD tactical votes.
In 2019 Johnson also won 6 Scottish Tory MPs which was still the 2nd best Tory performance in Scotland since 1992 after May in 2017
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
It has happened before, albeit the last time was 1955
That’s a myth. For a start, there was no such thing as Conservative candidates in Scotland in the 1950s.
Unionist MPs voted with the Conservatives then so it still counts
Hello from York. Mrs RP has Covid. My debauchery weekend is scrapped, all the money spent is sunk and instead I spend even more money to travel home for 10 days of isolation, nursing and likely the pox myself.
Yay
Really sorry to hear that RP. We are heading to Newcastle this coming weekend and I must confess I am apprehensive. That no refund, lower price hotel booking is not looking nearly as smart now as it seemed when I booked it.
Hello from York. Mrs RP has Covid. My debauchery weekend is scrapped, all the money spent is sunk and instead I spend even more money to travel home for 10 days of isolation, nursing and likely the pox myself.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
Mass full frontal lobotomy would be the precondition.
I dunno, a successful cannibalism of their English vote by a resurgent Faragist party, plus a little increase in tactical Tories north of the wall... it just within the realms of the possible. It would be madly fascinating.
Aha. I kind of misread your post. Now I see what you mean.
It would require the Scons to get up to the mid 30s at the same time as Tory support nosedived in their southern English heartland. I just can’t envisage it. History tells us that SCon support has a ceiling below 30, and I’m struggling to see a scenario where they are super popular in Scotland while simultaneously personae non grata in the Home Counties.
"Government scientists warn Omicron will lead to more hospitalisations than last winter and kill up to 75,000 people over the next five months unless tougher restrictions are brought in such as banning pubs from serving inside"
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
You are probably right. But that is not really enough for me to commit any money to it. The rewards may be greater backing a horse this far out but the risks are also far greater.
You can back me, I am a Horse
The lady had a donkey that everyone admired, It was temporarily lazy, It was permanently tired, A leg on every corner, A balance in its head And a tail to let you know where it wanted to be fed.
Neigh!
Are you well David?
Got my brain scan yesterday. Hopeful they will find one. Find out in 2 weeks.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
Mass full frontal lobotomy would be the precondition.
I dunno, a successful cannibalism of their English vote by a resurgent Faragist party, plus a little increase in tactical Tories north of the wall... it just within the realms of the possible. It would be madly fascinating.
Aha. I kind of misread your post. Now I see what you mean.
It would require the Scons to get up to the mid 30s at the same time as Tory support nosedived in their southern English heartland. I just can’t envisage it. History tells us that SCon support has a ceiling below 30, and I’m struggling to see a scenario where they are super popular in Scotland while simultaneously personae non grata in the Home Counties.
You're probably right. I just love the idea of it. A red England and a blue and yellow Scotland would be... wild.
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
You are probably right. But that is not really enough for me to commit any money to it. The rewards may be greater backing a horse this far out but the risks are also far greater.
You can back me, I am a Horse
The lady had a donkey that everyone admired, It was temporarily lazy, It was permanently tired, A leg on every corner, A balance in its head And a tail to let you know where it wanted to be fed.
Neigh!
Are you well David?
Got my brain scan yesterday. Hopeful they will find one. Find out in 2 weeks.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Doesn't look particularly robust even in "Rest of South"
The Midlands is becoming the Tory heartlands. Given I'd expect a sizeable Lab lead in Wales, they must be in front there. Still open to a convincing explanation as to why.
Certainly Wales is more red than it has been for years. I think the Wales Government came of age during the pandemic, and certainly Drakeford, at the time of the election, was getting a response from the public that I had never seen before with any politician. I get to meet a lot of people from the Black country during the summer, they invade mid and west Wales. There was certainly a Boris love in from them, which was not apparent in Wales. Brexit Corbyn, coronavirus. Take your pick.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Doesn't look particularly robust even in "Rest of South"
The Midlands is becoming the Tory heartlands. Given I'd expect a sizeable Lab lead in Wales, they must be in front there. Still open to a convincing explanation as to why.
Certainly Wales is more red than it has been for years. I think the Wales Government came of age during the pandemic, and certainly Drakeford, at the time of the election, was getting a response from the public that I had never seen before with any politician. I get to meet a lot of people from the Black country during the summer, they invade mid and west Wales. There was certainly a Boris love in from them, which was not apparent in Wales. Brexit Corbyn, coronavirus. Take your pick.
Welsh Labour has seemingly managed to create a pro-Wales party whilst also being pro the Union. Very interesting case study
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The unknown factor for Rishi is just who would be in his cabinet as that would indicate his direction of travel
Looks like another unknown for Sunak is will he be brought into Partygate.
The Guardian reports of a non-party post Autum 2020 lap of honour victory celebration with beer and wine. But of course it remains to be seen if that constitutes a lockdown party or a late working lunch. I suspect the latter
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
It has happened before, albeit the last time was 1955
That’s a myth. For a start, there was no such thing as Conservative candidates in Scotland in the 1950s.
Unionist MPs voted with the Conservatives then so it still counts
Even if you retrospectively rebrand Unionist candidates as Conservative candidates, it is still a myth, because you need to add in all sorts of ragtag candidates to get to the nonsense 55% figure. It is a very anal and Anglocentric way of looking at Scottish politics. So right up your street.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
Mass full frontal lobotomy would be the precondition.
I dunno, a successful cannibalism of their English vote by a resurgent Faragist party, plus a little increase in tactical Tories north of the wall... it just within the realms of the possible. It would be madly fascinating.
Aha. I kind of misread your post. Now I see what you mean.
It would require the Scons to get up to the mid 30s at the same time as Tory support nosedived in their southern English heartland. I just can’t envisage it. History tells us that SCon support has a ceiling below 30, and I’m struggling to see a scenario where they are super popular in Scotland while simultaneously personae non grata in the Home Counties.
I can: SCUP campaign for indy. Of the nation as well as their own party.
It's a formulatable scenario, but not terribly likely till a tipping point is reached for other reasins (self-preservation).
Its all so predictable, a SAGE leak here, a Neil Ferguson interview there, a SPI-M predicting maasive numbers.
"No Prime Minister could listen to this advise and these numbers and not act. I say with a very heavy heart that we have no choice. But our fantastic booster plans will save the day I can promise you and that by say Easter we will be living a normal life again" etc etc etc.
What day will he do the deed?
Parliament rises on Tuesday... What do you think?
The trouble is that we're going to bobble on with steady case rates for a week or two because Omicron is submarined under the Delta wave. And you will spend another week saying, nothing to see here. By the time Omicron surfaces in the stats it will be very late to do anything.
The unvaccinated need protecting, and society needs protecting from the unvaccinated until the worst case risk has passed.
It isn't just the unvaccinated. The data for the not boosted is discouraging with omicron, as I have found to my cost I suspect.
I don't think the final SP is in for the unboosted and severe disease - they clearly aren't protected against infection, but I expect enough protection.
My thoughts on how to structure a proportionate partial lockdown of the unvaccinated.
- Ban over 40s unvaccinated from all entertainment and leisure venues, close contact services, casual household visits (as host or guest). - Same to apply to unboosted over 70s. - Shielding of appropriate fully vaccinated and couldn't be vaccinated vulnerable, with financial support as needed. - Onus and penalties on the unvaccinated, Vaxport updated for the new rules and enforcement by business encouraged but optional.
Society to remain open with masking as now, no further restriction on the vaccinated at this stage. Essentially, allow a big wave of Omicron, but shield those most likely to end up in hospital.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
The New Zealand proposals are certainly interesting.
And many say Starmer is not responsible. But Labour is polling 40 now, when Corbyn left it was as low as 26.
Starmer has rebuilt the 40% coalition that is essentially key to Labour forcing a Hung Parliament. If he can built to 43% he’ll be onto majority territory.
I have never underestimated how good he could be.
Why so excitable? Starmer was at 40%+ late last year.
It is the Tory share against that 40% which is key though.
But what's that go to to with Starmer apparently having rebuilt the 40% coalition, which was already there 12 months ago.
I would suggest that with right leader and policies, as shown by Drakeford in Wales last year, Labour can get a result it could only dream about, so 40% is not necessarily top dollar.
Verstappen on soft tyres tomorrow, Hamilton on the mediums. Makes final qualifying even more key. If MV is not on pole so he can dance away on the faster tyre he is going to be in trouble.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
Mass full frontal lobotomy would be the precondition.
I dunno, a successful cannibalism of their English vote by a resurgent Faragist party, plus a little increase in tactical Tories north of the wall... it just within the realms of the possible. It would be madly fascinating.
Aha. I kind of misread your post. Now I see what you mean.
It would require the Scons to get up to the mid 30s at the same time as Tory support nosedived in their southern English heartland. I just can’t envisage it. History tells us that SCon support has a ceiling below 30, and I’m struggling to see a scenario where they are super popular in Scotland while simultaneously personae non grata in the Home Counties.
You're probably right. I just love the idea of it. A red England and a blue and yellow Scotland would be... wild.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
The New Zealand proposals are certainly interesting.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
Mass full frontal lobotomy would be the precondition.
I dunno, a successful cannibalism of their English vote by a resurgent Faragist party, plus a little increase in tactical Tories north of the wall... it just within the realms of the possible. It would be madly fascinating.
Aha. I kind of misread your post. Now I see what you mean.
It would require the Scons to get up to the mid 30s at the same time as Tory support nosedived in their southern English heartland. I just can’t envisage it. History tells us that SCon support has a ceiling below 30, and I’m struggling to see a scenario where they are super popular in Scotland while simultaneously personae non grata in the Home Counties.
I can: SCUP campaign for indy. Of the nation as well as their own party.
It's a formulatable scenario, but not terribly likely till a tipping point is reached for other reasins (self-preservation).
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Doesn't look particularly robust even in "Rest of South"
The Midlands is becoming the Tory heartlands. Given I'd expect a sizeable Lab lead in Wales, they must be in front there. Still open to a convincing explanation as to why.
Urban Midlands is still pretty red, between traditional urban voters, ethnic voters and universities. It is the medium sized towns and shires that have swallowed Brexitism. A lot is demographic* but also the decline of manufacturing and mining employment.
*Starmer needs to be making inroads with grey voters as much or more than with geographic regions. If the over 65s switch substantially to Labour we are in landslide territory.
Which is why the libertarians here are going to be very disappointed if they think Starmer will vote against vaxports. Lockdown, closing nightclubs, shutting down international travel etc. is most popular with Leave-voting pensioners who never frequent a club or an airport.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
The New Zealand proposals are certainly interesting.
I does raise an interesting issue, surely it goes against natural justice to have laws that only apply to adults of particular ages?
I think they’ll find it very difficult to prosecute when it finally comes in. By then Adern will probably be long gone though, so implementation issues become someone else’s problem.
Verstappen on soft tyres tomorrow, Hamilton on the mediums. Makes final qualifying even more key. If MV is not on pole so he can dance away on the faster tyre he is going to be in trouble.
Really hoping both Mercs get in front. After the last race we know what the RBR strategy is going to be.
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
You are probably right. But that is not really enough for me to commit any money to it. The rewards may be greater backing a horse this far out but the risks are also far greater.
You can back me, I am a Horse
The lady had a donkey that everyone admired, It was temporarily lazy, It was permanently tired, A leg on every corner, A balance in its head And a tail to let you know where it wanted to be fed.
Neigh!
Are you well David?
Got my brain scan yesterday. Hopeful they will find one. Find out in 2 weeks.
Why so long?
Hope all turns out to be well.
Dunno. 14 days means Christmas eve so we will see then.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
Mass full frontal lobotomy would be the precondition.
I dunno, a successful cannibalism of their English vote by a resurgent Faragist party, plus a little increase in tactical Tories north of the wall... it just within the realms of the possible. It would be madly fascinating.
Aha. I kind of misread your post. Now I see what you mean.
It would require the Scons to get up to the mid 30s at the same time as Tory support nosedived in their southern English heartland. I just can’t envisage it. History tells us that SCon support has a ceiling below 30, and I’m struggling to see a scenario where they are super popular in Scotland while simultaneously personae non grata in the Home Counties.
I can: SCUP campaign for indy. Of the nation as well as their own party.
It's a formulatable scenario, but not terribly likely till a tipping point is reached for other reasins (self-preservation).
Now you’re thinking outside the box!
Just thinking about the notion that Unionist = modern Tory; that's literally the equivalent of arguing that the DUP are automatically Conservative & Unionist Party. Not least because Scotland was a hell of a lot more sectarian in the 1950s with a much worse political division based in part on immigration from Ireland and RC affiliation vs Protestant nativists. And 'Unionist' in Unionist then meant Ulster Unionism.
PS There was that chap who used to sound off at the foot of the Mound in Edinburgh - John Cormack? Jack Glass? along such lines.
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
I think if you propose that the new Tory/ex Labour voters are anti lockdowns and vaccine passports, the Tories have fundamentally misunderstood their new voters.
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
You are probably right. But that is not really enough for me to commit any money to it. The rewards may be greater backing a horse this far out but the risks are also far greater.
You can back me, I am a Horse
The lady had a donkey that everyone admired, It was temporarily lazy, It was permanently tired, A leg on every corner, A balance in its head And a tail to let you know where it wanted to be fed.
Neigh!
Are you well David?
Got my brain scan yesterday. Hopeful they will find one. Find out in 2 weeks.
Why so long?
Hope all turns out to be well.
Dunno. 14 days means Christmas eve so we will see then.
Do we have any proposals for how the Foreign Office reductions will be distributed, yet?
Here's a Euro-type jumping to conclusions and wandering out on a plank:
The UK government is so deeply committed to building a global role for Britain that it is cutting its diplomatic service by 20% A 20% cut after several waves of previous cuts means prioritisation of UK diplomatic resources on a handful of key partners and adversaries at expense of a minimum to negligible UK diplomatic presence in large parts of the world, many of which are crucial to global development The FCDO is on track to becoming just another middle power diplomatic service, with the same reach and ambitions as Canadian or Italian counterparts. Which is still pretty OK in global comparison but does jar with FCDO and UK elite self image. It would all look a little less ridiculous if UK government and media rhetoric was willing to adjust to the actual extent of UK military capabilities and diplomatic resources https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1469614560185307136
The claim I don't believe without evidence is "cutting diplomatic service by 20%". Particularly as it is the weekend Times.
I think if you propose that the new Tory/ex Labour voters are anti lockdowns and vaccine passports, the Tories have fundamentally misunderstood their new voters.
They are anti lockdown but not anti vaccine passports
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
You are probably right. But that is not really enough for me to commit any money to it. The rewards may be greater backing a horse this far out but the risks are also far greater.
You can back me, I am a Horse
The lady had a donkey that everyone admired, It was temporarily lazy, It was permanently tired, A leg on every corner, A balance in its head And a tail to let you know where it wanted to be fed.
Neigh!
Are you well David?
“ Are you well David? “ It wasn’t that bad actually 😆
I have worked more on the rhyme to capture the history of Johnson’s downfall begun in Friday nights angry night on PB From a beast of a night can come something sweet
Boris Johnson ruled inept, To the rules, never once he kept; On this old rogue comeuppance crept - As he soundly above his party, slept.
Verstappen on soft tyres tomorrow, Hamilton on the mediums. Makes final qualifying even more key. If MV is not on pole so he can dance away on the faster tyre he is going to be in trouble.
It might be safer for Hamilton if he was not on the same row of the grid as Verstappen.
Hi Moon, I am sorry I did not immediately respond to your PM. But thank you for your kind words and suggestions for my mental health issues, which I am looking at now. I am still seeing the counsellor once a week which I am finding a great help
The FO is not fit for purpose as evidenced in the select committee last week
Cutting headcount by 20% seems unlikely to help that. There's lots of room for savings though -> hire more locals abroad and be less generous with all the perks (free rent abroad, extra holiday allowances, free flights etc.)
You'll get no-one of quality applying if your remove free rent abroad. You are already asking two-career households to effectively forego one career, and to maintain a house in London. The extra holiday allowance is to allow diplomats to spend at least some time in the UK so they continue to know the country they represent. The Dutch used to have separate Foreign Office and Diplomatic personnel, with the former permanently in the Hague and the latter serving permanently abroad until that led to Ambassadors who were representing what the NL was 30 years ago (and policy-makers who had little clue of the outside world).
Again, how do you recruit quality personnel without free rent oversees, travel to maintain family ties, and time to spend in the country you are representing?
Under Blair, the FCO core diplomatic personnel was slashed by over 50%. It lost is surge capacity. It now functions in permanent crisis mode. I think the NHS is finding out how damaging that is as an MO.
This is the same story across government though. The way civil servants are treated is insulting. Second class travel. Domestically it is hreadbare travelodges with 'breakfast boxes'. Impossible to claim expenses. They put out calls for people to take up the opportunity of going to Iraq for 6 months and living in a portacabin. The diplomatic service is run more like a cheapskate church mission, than anything we may have previously thought of as a government service. This is all a legacy of austerity, it can be traced back to D Cameron and G Osborne. They may well come to be regarded as the men who ruined Britain.
That matches my Civil Service experience, which involved a lot of travel. We went from being put up in decent (but not posh) hotels to Travelodge and Premier Inns. Expenses were scrutinised so vigorously that sometimes it was easier to pay out from your own pocket. If you lost a receipt, that was it - no element of trust. Travel arrangements aimed for the cheapest, rather than the most convenient. Of course, the job became less appealing, and therefore the quality of candidates worsened - and the pay freeze didn't help, either,
I'd only add that this was largely to do with Cameron/Osborne and austerity, but was also a product of the MPs expenses backlash.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Scottish Tory MPs though can get Labour and LD Unionist tactical votes v the SNP, while their counterparts south of the border have no chance of getting any tactical votes except from maybe RefUK voters
Ross is going to find it much harder persuading SLab and SLD supporters to lend the Tories their votes. Johnson is quite literally repulsive.
Of course, that only applies if Boris is still PM. Don't think Douglas Ross will shed many tears if he isn't, judging by recent remarks.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
Mass full frontal lobotomy would be the precondition.
I dunno, a successful cannibalism of their English vote by a resurgent Faragist party, plus a little increase in tactical Tories north of the wall... it just within the realms of the possible. It would be madly fascinating.
Aha. I kind of misread your post. Now I see what you mean.
It would require the Scons to get up to the mid 30s at the same time as Tory support nosedived in their southern English heartland. I just can’t envisage it. History tells us that SCon support has a ceiling below 30, and I’m struggling to see a scenario where they are super popular in Scotland while simultaneously personae non grata in the Home Counties.
I can: SCUP campaign for indy. Of the nation as well as their own party.
It's a formulatable scenario, but not terribly likely till a tipping point is reached for other reasins (self-preservation).
That would see the SCons collapse to below 2015 levels, given almost all their voters are Unionists and would switch to the LDs or SLab or RefUK if they did that. Hence it would never happen as in effect it would mean the SCons cease to exist.
More realistically the only likely alternative is if we end up with a scenario where RefUK becomes the main rightwing party in England but the Conservatives remain the main rightwing party in Scotland, although that is still unlikely too. Remember in the 2019 European elections May's Conservatives got 11% in Scotland but only 9% across the UK while the Brexit Party got 30% UK wide but only 15% in Scotland
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Hell of a Scottish subsample especially with the footie referee inveighing against Mr J - but perhaps partly because of that.
And that Scotland sample shows why Labour have a mountain to climb to even gain a majority of 1
It's a fair point although worth pointing out that even without Scotland seats Blair would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001.
(Edit: And even in 2005 Blair won an absolute majority of the combined England, Wales and NI seats).
Blair was an exception though and won Tory seats in England no Labour leader had ever won before as he was more like an old school Liberal leader than a socialist or even a social democrat.
Other than under Blair, since universal suffrage in 1918 Labour have only won a majority in England in 1945 and 1966
Just a thought; the first Universal Suffrage election was 1929, when both men and women over 21 could vote.
Verstappen on soft tyres tomorrow, Hamilton on the mediums. Makes final qualifying even more key. If MV is not on pole so he can dance away on the faster tyre he is going to be in trouble.
Really hoping both Mercs get in front. After the last race we know what the RBR strategy is going to be.
Really smart slipstream by RB. That's going to be hard to beat.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
The New Zealand proposals are certainly interesting.
I does raise an interesting issue, surely it goes against natural justice to have laws that only apply to adults of particular ages?
I think they’ll find it very difficult to prosecute when it finally comes in. By then Adern will probably be long gone though, so implementation issues become someone else’s problem.
It’s bad legislation, imo.
Natural justice for whom?
Can't smokers get a benefit. Can still smokers get their self-killing habit pandered to.
Went to a fucking great DJ set at Electric Brixton last night, absolutely bouncing, packed dancefloor, packed bars. It was a little slice of normal among the gloom. My wife thought we'd be home by midnight but we finally made it back at 6am, a couple of our friends were still going at 5am when we left. There really is nothing quite like a big night out!
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Hell of a Scottish subsample especially with the footie referee inveighing against Mr J - but perhaps partly because of that.
And that Scotland sample shows why Labour have a mountain to climb to even gain a majority of 1
It's a fair point although worth pointing out that even without Scotland seats Blair would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001.
(Edit: And even in 2005 Blair won an absolute majority of the combined England, Wales and NI seats).
Blair was an exception though and won Tory seats in England no Labour leader had ever won before as he was more like an old school Liberal leader than a socialist or even a social democrat.
Other than under Blair, since universal suffrage in 1918 Labour have only won a majority in England in 1945 and 1966
Just a thought; the first Universal Suffrage election was 1929, when both men and women over 21 could vote.
Yes but it was giving all working class men the vote in 1918 which saw the Labour Party overtake the Liberals as the Tories main opponents (at least on voteshare and by 1922 on seats too), if anything back then more women voted Tory than Labour
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Scottish Tory MPs though can get Labour and LD Unionist tactical votes v the SNP, while their counterparts south of the border have no chance of getting any tactical votes except from maybe RefUK voters
Ross is going to find it much harder persuading SLab and SLD supporters to lend the Tories their votes. Johnson is quite literally repulsive.
Of course, that only applies if Boris is still PM. Don't think Douglas Ross will shed many tears if he isn't, judging by recent remarks.
And HYUFD is also forgetting the point that the SNP can and will get tactical votes from anti-Tories of all colours. It's not as if the SNP don't want to ask the population first before declaring independence, in complete contrast to the Unionist policy on that scpect of the constitution. Look at Farooq's thought processes for one (highly rational) example, albeit dependent on how much longer Mr J continues in power.
Hello from York. Mrs RP has Covid. My debauchery weekend is scrapped, all the money spent is sunk and instead I spend even more money to travel home for 10 days of isolation, nursing and likely the pox myself.
Yay
Sad. Best of. You've both been vaccinated, IIRC, so you can console yourselves with the TV.
Hello from York. Mrs RP has Covid. My debauchery weekend is scrapped, all the money spent is sunk and instead I spend even more money to travel home for 10 days of isolation, nursing and likely the pox myself.
Went to a fucking great DJ set at Electric Brixton last night, absolutely bouncing, packed dancefloor, packed bars. It was a little slice of normal among the gloom. My wife thought we'd be home by midnight but we finally made it back at 6am, a couple of our friends were still going at 5am when we left. There really is nothing quite like a big night out!
You are going to miss this when you go to Switzerland, where having your washing machine on after midnight is a criminal offence.....let alone raving it up until 6am.
Do we have any proposals for how the Foreign Office reductions will be distributed, yet?
Here's a Euro-type jumping to conclusions and wandering out on a plank:
The UK government is so deeply committed to building a global role for Britain that it is cutting its diplomatic service by 20% A 20% cut after several waves of previous cuts means prioritisation of UK diplomatic resources on a handful of key partners and adversaries at expense of a minimum to negligible UK diplomatic presence in large parts of the world, many of which are crucial to global development The FCDO is on track to becoming just another middle power diplomatic service, with the same reach and ambitions as Canadian or Italian counterparts. Which is still pretty OK in global comparison but does jar with FCDO and UK elite self image. It would all look a little less ridiculous if UK government and media rhetoric was willing to adjust to the actual extent of UK military capabilities and diplomatic resources https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1469614560185307136
The claim I don't believe without evidence is "cutting diplomatic service by 20%". Particularly as it is the weekend Times.
I read that this morning. It occurred to me we should have a CANZUK diplomatic service
That would be a pretty beefy diplomatic corps with ample resources worldwide. Annoyingly I guess we’d have to use a bit of French to appease the Quebecois
Hi Moon, I am sorry I did not immediately respond to your PM. But thank you for your kind words and suggestions for my mental health issues, which I am looking at now. I am still seeing the counsellor once a week which I am finding a great help
No worries mate 👍🏻 May you get well soon and stay there for ever is my wish. It does mean I managed to send message properly and not just to myself thanks 🙂
"It is understood that Sunak was not at the event and was not aware of it taking place at the time."
I live in a detached house in its own grounds. When a celebration occurs next door I can hear it from 100 metres away. Didn't Sunak or Johnson ask for the noise to be turned down? Or is Carrie's wallpaper so sound insulation efficient they couldn't hear anything?
Do we have any proposals for how the Foreign Office reductions will be distributed, yet?
Here's a Euro-type jumping to conclusions and wandering out on a plank:
The UK government is so deeply committed to building a global role for Britain that it is cutting its diplomatic service by 20% A 20% cut after several waves of previous cuts means prioritisation of UK diplomatic resources on a handful of key partners and adversaries at expense of a minimum to negligible UK diplomatic presence in large parts of the world, many of which are crucial to global development The FCDO is on track to becoming just another middle power diplomatic service, with the same reach and ambitions as Canadian or Italian counterparts. Which is still pretty OK in global comparison but does jar with FCDO and UK elite self image. It would all look a little less ridiculous if UK government and media rhetoric was willing to adjust to the actual extent of UK military capabilities and diplomatic resources https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1469614560185307136
The claim I don't believe without evidence is "cutting diplomatic service by 20%". Particularly as it is the weekend Times.
I read that this morning. It occurred to me we should have a CANZUK diplomatic service
That would be a pretty beefy diplomatic corps with ample resources worldwide. Annoyingly I guess we’d have to use a bit of French to appease the Quebecois
Obviously well aware of social media, but then da yoof are these days.
THough he has been a Northumberland Partyt leader (for some reason missing from his Wiki) and Labour activist as well. Plenty of time for more travels.
"It is understood that Sunak was not at the event and was not aware of it taking place at the time."
I live in a detached house in its own grounds. When a celebration occurs next door I can hear it from 100 metres away. Didn't Sunak or Johnson ask for the noise to be turned down? Or is Carrie's wallpaper so sound insulation efficient they couldn't hear anything?
As I understand it Sunak doesn't live in Downing Street. Boris on the other hand....he doesn't have a leg to stand on, as his diary says he was away during the day, but back in London the evening of the big piss up.
Verstappen on soft tyres tomorrow, Hamilton on the mediums. Makes final qualifying even more key. If MV is not on pole so he can dance away on the faster tyre he is going to be in trouble.
Really hoping both Mercs get in front. After the last race we know what the RBR strategy is going to be.
Really smart slipstream by RB. That's going to be hard to beat.
As predicted. Could Mercedes not count on Bottas in his last race for them? The slipstream was the difference.
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
Apologies - yes sorry 5600 pw - I realised this. But my point is - that 5600 will average st 20,666 from now to the end of the first quarter is massive in itself but would necessitate a MUCH larger figure somewhere in that quarter to bring up the mean to 20,666.
Went to a fucking great DJ set at Electric Brixton last night, absolutely bouncing, packed dancefloor, packed bars. It was a little slice of normal among the gloom. My wife thought we'd be home by midnight but we finally made it back at 6am, a couple of our friends were still going at 5am when we left. There really is nothing quite like a big night out!
You are going to miss this when you go to Switzerland, where having your washing machine on after midnight is a criminal offence.....let alone raving it up until 6am.
Unless the Home Secretary tells me otherwise I'm still a UK citizen so it's not as though we couldn't come back to London for it. Zurich has got a couple of big super clubs but they tend to play eurotrash bollocks.
Talking of predictions, this one from me yesterday evening wasn't the hardest.
I still think its unlikely the test will even go into day 5. I think the new ball is very likely to prove decisive and that Australia will have a relatively small total to knock off which they will in double quick time. But I am delighted that England have shown today that they are not complete pushovers and will not just roll over.
Like @rcs1000 I am struggling to see a draw in any viable scenario. Maybe they got Ferguson to model it for them.
Talking of predictions, this one from me yesterday evening wasn't the hardest.
I still think its unlikely the test will even go into day 5. I think the new ball is very likely to prove decisive and that Australia will have a relatively small total to knock off which they will in double quick time. But I am delighted that England have shown today that they are not complete pushovers and will not just roll over.
Like @rcs1000 I am struggling to see a draw in any viable scenario. Maybe they got Ferguson to model it for them.
Your prediction was dreadful I'm sorry to say.
The new ball wasn't decisive, it was redundant, we'd already lost all the key wickets prior to the new ball.
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
Thing is, damage limitation requires the UK to make concessions and publicly commit to them. Passively not doing things isn't going to work.
An example. The US apparently won't drop steel tariffs until the UK comes to agreement with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol. Quietly dropping the idea of using A16 won't be enough to get the US tariffs removed. The UK will need to make some kind of commitment to not using it by agreeing something else, which happens to be same as the Irish and EU demands.
The US tariffs aren't simply an embarrassment, in that the EU gets something the UK doesn't. UK steel firms are now at a competitive disadvantage because they have tariffs and the competition doesn't.
So the Brexiteer government must decide if it prioritises the hypothetical possibility of calling Article 16 over the future of an important industry in Red Wall seats. This can't be fudged.
On another topic it looks like the UK and Jersey will reissue the demanded French fishing licences, as predicted.
There's no point discussing whether this is good or bad. I guess for different reasons both Remainers and Leavers think it's bad, which is why there's been no market for damage limitation up to now. It's simply how things are going to be from now on. But I can see people reacting badly.
Talking of predictions, this one from me yesterday evening wasn't the hardest.
I still think its unlikely the test will even go into day 5. I think the new ball is very likely to prove decisive and that Australia will have a relatively small total to knock off which they will in double quick time. But I am delighted that England have shown today that they are not complete pushovers and will not just roll over.
Like @rcs1000 I am struggling to see a draw in any viable scenario. Maybe they got Ferguson to model it for them.
Following CricViz for your betting is a sure fire way to lose money.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
"It is understood that Sunak was not at the event and was not aware of it taking place at the time."
I live in a detached house in its own grounds. When a celebration occurs next door I can hear it from 100 metres away. Didn't Sunak or Johnson ask for the noise to be turned down? Or is Carrie's wallpaper so sound insulation efficient they couldn't hear anything?
As I understand it Sunak doesn't live in Downing Street. Boris on the other hand....he doesn't have a leg to stand on, as his diary says he was away during the day, but back in London the evening of the big piss up.
Does the Chancellor stay in the flat when he has been on the lash at a works party ... I mean late working breakfast?
Went to a fucking great DJ set at Electric Brixton last night, absolutely bouncing, packed dancefloor, packed bars. It was a little slice of normal among the gloom. My wife thought we'd be home by midnight but we finally made it back at 6am, a couple of our friends were still going at 5am when we left. There really is nothing quite like a big night out!
Had been looking forward to mine tonight at Brixton Academy, ah well. Will have to console myself with hours of Grand Prix tomorrow
"It is understood that Sunak was not at the event and was not aware of it taking place at the time."
I live in a detached house in its own grounds. When a celebration occurs next door I can hear it from 100 metres away. Didn't Sunak or Johnson ask for the noise to be turned down? Or is Carrie's wallpaper so sound insulation efficient they couldn't hear anything?
As I understand it Sunak doesn't live in Downing Street. Boris on the other hand....he doesn't have a leg to stand on, as his diary says he was away during the day, but back in London the evening of the big piss up.
Does the Chancellor stay in the flat when he has been on the lash at a works party ... I mean late working breakfast?
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
Went to a fucking great DJ set at Electric Brixton last night, absolutely bouncing, packed dancefloor, packed bars. It was a little slice of normal among the gloom. My wife thought we'd be home by midnight but we finally made it back at 6am, a couple of our friends were still going at 5am when we left. There really is nothing quite like a big night out!
Had been looking forward to mine tonight at Brixton Academy, ah well. Will have to console myself with hours of Grand Prix tomorrow
Ah man, sorry to hear that. Don't understand why anything is being cancelled, Brixton was bouncing last night.
Edit - just saw why, hope your wife gets better soon! When my wife and I had it last year it wasn't pleasant for about a week, if it's any longer than that get a medical consultation.
Hello from York. Mrs RP has Covid. My debauchery weekend is scrapped, all the money spent is sunk and instead I spend even more money to travel home for 10 days of isolation, nursing and likely the pox myself.
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
"UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000"
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
Apologies - yes sorry 5600 pw - I realised this. But my point is - that 5600 will average st 20,666 from now to the end of the first quarter is massive in itself but would necessitate a MUCH larger figure somewhere in that quarter to bring up the mean to 20,666.
Total covid admissions so far. 600,000. I’m predicting omicron will add roughly 50% to that over the winter
If I say so myself, I’m still impressed by my amateur epidemiology.
This morning the best scientific brains in the country - virologists to mathematicians - came up with their predictions of deaths by omicron
Best case: 24,700
Worst case: 74,900
Last night, hours before, at about 11pm after two gins and several wines, I predicted
My case: 49,100
Absolute bullseye. Smack bang in the middle. Quite frankly the government could save squillions by sacking all their modellers and hiring me to do it once a week after dinner for about an hour. They could pay me in Tikves Barovo
"It is understood that Sunak was not at the event and was not aware of it taking place at the time."
I live in a detached house in its own grounds. When a celebration occurs next door I can hear it from 100 metres away. Didn't Sunak or Johnson ask for the noise to be turned down? Or is Carrie's wallpaper so sound insulation efficient they couldn't hear anything?
As I understand it Sunak doesn't live in Downing Street. Boris on the other hand....he doesn't have a leg to stand on, as his diary says he was away during the day, but back in London the evening of the big piss up.
Does the Chancellor stay in the flat when he has been on the lash at a works party ... I mean late working breakfast?
AFIK Dishy Rishi doesn't drink.
He does. Drinks the tears from the howls of anguish of Boris's team as he outmanoeuvres them again and again.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
Saves on pensions for HMG and the pension funds. Very utility.
Verstappen on soft tyres tomorrow, Hamilton on the mediums. Makes final qualifying even more key. If MV is not on pole so he can dance away on the faster tyre he is going to be in trouble.
I would think Hamilton will be reasonably happy to see him dance away at the start. The softs won’t last anywhere near as long as the mediums, so it then becomes a strategy battle. Obviously he would have preferred Merc 1/2, but after his poor first run in Q3 it wasn’t going to happen, and Bottas’ miserable effort compounded that. Starting on pole on the mediums vs Verstappen in p2 on the softs would have been much riskier.
Good to see Liverpool Victoria having their demutualisation sale of themselves to Bain capital rejected by members (me included) - Mutuals are the best model for a lot of business certainly financial business
It was a very poor offer. Either the current management negotiated below value (perhaps because of conflicts of interest) or perhaps it was fair value because the current management mismanaged the company.
Either way the current management had no business recommending that offer.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
No, that's fine. All I do is Marlboro Golds.
So you are for a ban on cigarettes but think that cannabis should be legal?
Well I'd vote for a ban on cigs through sheer personal interest. But on the principle, I do think the case for smoking being illegal is far stronger than for soft drugs or alcohol. Smoking has absolutely zero benefit or utility to anybody. It's 100% downside. On every level it's a bad thing. There are no redeeming factors. The one and only reason for it being legal is that it's legal now. If it were invented tomorrow it wouldn't have a chance of being allowed.
Zero utility? You don't think people enjoy smoking?
We (I’m a smoker) enjoy satiating the craving. It’s not really enjoyment. We look forward to the calm, pleasant sensation after getting our fix.
It’s a stupid, nasty, dangerous habit. Despite what I said in my previous post, I still wish smoking had been illegal when I was growing up. I almost certainly wouldn’t be addicted now.
I just think there’s something wrong with the way NZ is going about it.
Comments
I was a bit spooked by Pip’s header, worried it would move the market. Ever since the LD’s went odds on, the cons looked value to me.
So I went in deep last night, over a grand @ 2/1
The thing I worry most about is that someone is sitting on a constituency poll.
One of those by-election betting risks….
Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
People can't be "rabidly" anti-Trump. To use that word for passionate anti-Trumpery is telling me you have still not entirely shrugged off your 'guilty pleasure' regard for him.
Yay
In 2019 Johnson also won 6 Scottish Tory MPs which was still the 2nd best Tory performance in Scotland since 1992 after May in 2017
It would require the Scons to get up to the mid 30s at the same time as Tory support nosedived in their southern English heartland. I just can’t envisage it. History tells us that SCon support has a ceiling below 30, and I’m struggling to see a scenario where they are super popular in Scotland while simultaneously personae non grata in the Home Counties.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10299101/Covid-19-UK-come-contact-Omicron-unless-youre-hermit-expert-warns.html
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April:
20.9 million infections
175,000 hospital admissions
24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April:
34.2 million infections
492,000 hospital admissions
74,900 deaths”
Sometimes I scare MYSELF
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59621029
SNP and Plaid Cymru votes in England, Labour votes in NI.
Why so long?
Hope all turns out to be well.
I get to meet a lot of people from the Black country during the summer, they invade mid and west Wales. There was certainly a Boris love in from them, which was not apparent in Wales. Brexit Corbyn, coronavirus. Take your pick.
The Guardian reports of a non-party post Autum 2020 lap of honour victory celebration with beer and wine. But of course it remains to be seen if that constitutes a lockdown party or a late working lunch. I suspect the latter
It's a formulatable scenario, but not terribly likely till a tipping point is reached for other reasins (self-preservation).
“He has, not to put too fine a point on it, f***ed it.”
“The trouble is, no one likes him.”
“He’s lost the dressing room.”
“He cannot afford any more missteps.”
“He is treating the British public like his previous relationships.”
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-has-fed-it-tory-mps-say-their-leader-has-lost-the-dressing-room-1347462
My thoughts on how to structure a proportionate partial lockdown of the unvaccinated.
- Ban over 40s unvaccinated from all entertainment and leisure venues, close contact services, casual household visits (as host or guest).
- Same to apply to unboosted over 70s.
- Shielding of appropriate fully vaccinated and couldn't be vaccinated vulnerable, with financial support as needed.
- Onus and penalties on the unvaccinated, Vaxport updated for the new rules and enforcement by business encouraged but optional.
Society to remain open with masking as now, no further restriction on the vaccinated at this stage. Essentially, allow a big wave of Omicron, but shield those most likely to end up in hospital.
If it’s any consolation (almost certainly not) we are ALL going to get Omicron or know someone very close who gets it, in the next few weeks
Best bet is to view all plans as “contingent”. Make everything cancellable with full refund. Expect nothing for certain
eg I’m still meant to be flying to Ibiza tomorrow. Will it happen? 🤷♂️
Lockdown, closing nightclubs, shutting down international travel etc. is most popular with Leave-voting pensioners who never frequent a club or an airport.
I think they’ll find it very difficult to prosecute when it finally comes in. By then Adern will probably be long gone though, so implementation issues become someone else’s problem.
It’s bad legislation, imo.
PS There was that chap who used to sound off at the foot of the Mound in Edinburgh - John Cormack? Jack Glass? along such lines.
What does that mean? I presume you mean the total of UK daily new hospitalisations due to Covid? If so that's 310,000/15 weeks = 20,666 per week on average. (About 800 currently)
Best of British luck
Here's a Euro-type jumping to conclusions and wandering out on a plank:
The UK government is so deeply committed to building a global role for Britain that it is cutting its diplomatic service by 20%
A 20% cut after several waves of previous cuts means prioritisation of UK diplomatic resources on a handful of key partners and adversaries at expense of a minimum to negligible UK diplomatic presence in large parts of the world, many of which are crucial to global development
The FCDO is on track to becoming just another middle power diplomatic service, with the same reach and ambitions as Canadian or Italian counterparts. Which is still pretty OK in global comparison but does jar with FCDO and UK elite self image.
It would all look a little less ridiculous if UK government and media rhetoric was willing to adjust to the actual extent of UK military capabilities and diplomatic resources
https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1469614560185307136
The claim I don't believe without evidence is "cutting diplomatic service by 20%". Particularly as it is the weekend Times.
I have worked more on the rhyme to capture the history of Johnson’s downfall begun in Friday nights angry night on PB
From a beast of a night can come something sweet
Boris Johnson ruled inept,
To the rules, never once he kept;
On this old rogue comeuppance crept -
As he soundly above his party, slept.
🖌
Hi Moon, I am sorry I did not immediately respond to your PM. But thank you for your kind words and suggestions for my mental health issues, which I am looking at now. I am still seeing the counsellor once a week which I am finding a great help
I'd only add that this was largely to do with Cameron/Osborne and austerity, but was also a product of the MPs expenses backlash.
More realistically the only likely alternative is if we end up with a scenario where RefUK becomes the main rightwing party in England but the Conservatives remain the main rightwing party in Scotland, although that is still unlikely too. Remember in the 2019 European elections May's Conservatives got 11% in Scotland but only 9% across the UK while the Brexit Party got 30% UK wide but only 15% in Scotland
Anyone tempted?
Can't smokers get a benefit. Can still smokers get their self-killing habit pandered to.
How would you make it reflect natural justice?
You can't make them all go cold turkey.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
That would be a pretty beefy diplomatic corps with ample resources worldwide. Annoyingly I guess we’d have to use a bit of French to appease the Quebecois
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/angus-council-criticism-piles-high-as-second-troll-unmasked-3292871
Obviously well aware of social media, but then da yoof are these days.
THough he has been a Northumberland Partyt leader (for some reason missing from his Wiki) and Labour activist as well. Plenty of time for more travels.
I still think its unlikely the test will even go into day 5. I think the new ball is very likely to prove decisive and that Australia will have a relatively small total to knock off which they will in double quick time. But I am delighted that England have shown today that they are not complete pushovers and will not just roll over.
Like @rcs1000 I am struggling to see a draw in any viable scenario. Maybe they got Ferguson to model it for them.
The new ball wasn't decisive, it was redundant, we'd already lost all the key wickets prior to the new ball.
An example. The US apparently won't drop steel tariffs until the UK comes to agreement with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol. Quietly dropping the idea of using A16 won't be enough to get the US tariffs removed. The UK will need to make some kind of commitment to not using it by agreeing something else, which happens to be same as the Irish and EU demands.
The US tariffs aren't simply an embarrassment, in that the EU gets something the UK doesn't. UK steel firms are now at a competitive disadvantage because they have tariffs and the competition doesn't.
So the Brexiteer government must decide if it prioritises the hypothetical possibility of calling Article 16 over the future of an important industry in Red Wall seats. This can't be fudged.
On another topic it looks like the UK and Jersey will reissue the demanded French fishing licences, as predicted.
There's no point discussing whether this is good or bad. I guess for different reasons both Remainers and Leavers think it's bad, which is why there's been no market for damage limitation up to now. It's simply how things are going to be from now on. But I can see people reacting badly.
Edit - just saw why, hope your wife gets better soon! When my wife and I had it last year it wasn't pleasant for about a week, if it's any longer than that get a medical consultation.
Jades NAP Lucky One free going front runner 😂 didn’t want to play with his friends today. Jumped well.
If I say so myself, I’m still impressed by my amateur epidemiology.
This morning the best scientific brains in the country - virologists to mathematicians - came up with their predictions of deaths by omicron
Best case: 24,700
Worst case: 74,900
Last night, hours before, at about 11pm after two gins and several wines, I predicted
My case: 49,100
Absolute bullseye. Smack bang in the middle. Quite frankly the government could save squillions by sacking all their modellers and hiring me to do it once a week after dinner for about an hour. They could pay me in Tikves Barovo
Obviously he would have preferred Merc 1/2, but after his poor first run in Q3 it wasn’t going to happen, and Bottas’ miserable effort compounded that.
Starting on pole on the mediums vs Verstappen in p2 on the softs would have been much riskier.
Either way the current management had no business recommending that offer.
It’s a stupid, nasty, dangerous habit. Despite what I said in my previous post, I still wish smoking had been illegal when I was growing up. I almost certainly wouldn’t be addicted now.
I just think there’s something wrong with the way NZ is going about it.
Dutch website owner arrested for selling material which allowed people to avoid getting the COVID-19 vaccine by infecting themselves with the virus
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1469652338835169284?s=20
I bet it is!