Indeed. I'm interested in whether HYUFD thinks a challenge is an odds-on chance if NS is lost. If the required letters go in but Johnson decides to compete in the resulting vote would he survive?
I am hoping my forecast for a lib dem landslide in North Shropshire happens and then Brady and his committee go and tell Boris to resign, or he will be facing an immediate ballot
In other words, the drop in the Con vote is statistically significant, and they have seeped support to all other parties.
(The one thing that polls are very poor at measuring is “churn”, which is likely here.)
In the latest yougov 7% has gone to Reform who are level with the Greens
The vote could go to the murali_s rebel alliance party - who cares! As long the vile Tories are on the slide, it's all good. Hope the slides continues for a long while yet. We need proper change in this country and for the first time in a long time, there is hope...
However, I urge caution for my fellow progressives as there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge.
Confusion around/resistance to tactical voting is the main factor on the left (and the fact their combined votes were still a minority last time!)
On the right, Reform’s performance will be interesting. Local candidate with strong Tory connections (she’s a former Borough Cllr, mum still a unitary councillor, dad used to lead the authority and was Paterson’s agent). I wouldn’t overstate the number of people that brings into her sphere.. but it’s probably more than Tice in Bexley. And she’s a handy receptacle for those pissed off at having a barrister parachuted in from Brum.
There are another 3 or 4 right-leaning candidates who could peel off a few hundred too.
It’s a by-election a week before Christmas (uncertain turnout), in an 80-seat majority Parliament (not deciding party of govt), and there’s no shortage of options for those who fancy wandering from the tribe in either direction. The question is how many fancy it.
FPT it’s a very slippery slope when you start judging people for needing the NHS. When does it end?
@Leon guzzles booze like nobody’s business. That’s a positive act that is likely to be an NHS resource drain in the future. Driving a car at 120mph is also a positive act. Refusing a vaccine is an omission.
It feels profoundly wrong to force people to put something into their own body.
I say this as someone who has had an operation cancelled 3 times already due to NHS pressures. 4th attempt is currently scheduled for Monday.
Except you're talking about compulsion in a situation of dire national emergency as if it were a totally novel and unprecedented moral outrage. It isn't.
Not so very long ago, millions of our forebears were conscripted to fight in wars. When society was faced with an existential threat, it demanded, amongst other things, that young people fight in battles and get blown up, shot through the head or drown in icy cold seas. And if you were called up then, unless you had a very good excuse (e.g. a reserved occupation or being medically unfit) then you bloody well went. The small minority of hardcore pacifists who refused to do service of any kind were complete social pariahs who ended up imprisoned.
Fast forward a few decades and now it's considered unforgivable to ask people to have a scratch on the arm every three or six months so as to try and avoid the entire bloody country ending up under house arrest for months on end, with the education of the nation's children wrecked, otherwise viable businesses driven to the wall en masse, and the state hurtling every closer to the cliff edge of bankruptcy into the bargain.
And if the cost of your repeated cancelled operations was that you ended up dead, I doubt your surviving relatives would feel so sanguine about this problem.
Yes, exactly
I confess my patience has ENTIRELY snapped with vax refuseniks like Dura, however entertaining he might be, on occasion. It especially snaps when he starts opining on bloody politics. To continue your analogy, it is like some conscientious objector in 1944 complaining about the awful tactics during D Day and demanding resignations. Jeez no. Do one. Fuck. Right. Off. Never speak again
But my anger - which is genuine - is running away with me, and I will rein it in, for the sake of the site. And the mods. FWIW I have the same anger to refuseniks in my personal life, I now find it very hard not to slap them. This is not "personal"
Goodnight
Good night Gilderoy.
Sean a Slytherin?
Makes sense.
Yes, I spotted that! Looks fantastic.
Range is tremendously important for our big car, as we frequently drive up to 6 hours to get into the mountains (usually for skiing, but cycling has exploded in popularity here). So we are looking at the more premium brands. I just do not like Teslas, the design is awful, and the chassis a piece of junk. Polestar have too many faults. BMW have not launched any “normal” all-electric cars yet, Hyundai too plasticky (although it is perhaps my fav at the moment), Kia and VW overpriced,
I hate to be boring, but I’m probably going for another ICE Volvo at this rate. It’ll be third in a row. They call the new ones “light hybrids”, but I don’t swallow much marketing guff.
I can recommend the Audi Q7. Fantastic in the snow and good to drive for such a large car. Loads of room for sports.
Thanks. Yes, we took a quick look at that, but I’m afraid it got an immediate veto on raw ugliness grounds.
“ Vast majority of Britons have NO PROTECTION against Omicron: After 100 days two AstraZeneca doses offer virtually zero defence while two Pfizer jabs provide just 37% protection against new variant - but boosters cut risk of falling ill by 75%”
This is the simplistic nonsense that will lead us into lockdown before Christmas. Because our PM and Cabinet are too thick and poorly educated to understand why this sound byte is wrong.
I thought they had a team of experts to advise them?
A team of experts in the background is absolutely worthless when the people making the decisions are “thick” and “poorly educated”.
cf Brexit
Problem is, in Gove and Johnson we are governed by ex hacks, backed up by second rate media and comms people. The PM’s personal sounding board at home is an art history grad that worked in Pr.
In Sunak & Javid we have backgrounds who should be capable of absorbing technical info outside their expertise and executing decisions. But they’re greasy pole climbers.
Gove isn't thick at all - I've rarely met a politician more able to absorb the details of a complex brief. He's also very committed to doing stuff, and to confronting vested interests. That leads him into far more controversy than ministers who just keep the ship steady. If he was Chancellor, for instance, I could well imagine massive tax/NI reforms with lots of winners and losers - he would attract real loathing from some, but possibly produce a more sensible outcome for the economy. I'm interested to see what he'll do to the planning system - it won't be trivial.
It's why Cummings likes him - Gove is, for Cummings, one of the few politicians that are intelligent enough to be leading us.
I couldn’t care less what Gove thinks about halal meat. I do care that he appears to be the key motivator from within government for unending restrictions and interferences against our fundamental liberties, without ever having the courtesy to properly define the costs and benefits of those interventions.
FPT it’s a very slippery slope when you start judging people for needing the NHS. When does it end?
@Leon guzzles booze like nobody’s business. That’s a positive act that is likely to be an NHS resource drain in the future. Driving a car at 120mph is also a positive act. Refusing a vaccine is an omission.
It feels profoundly wrong to force people to put something into their own body.
I say this as someone who has had an operation cancelled 3 times already due to NHS pressures. 4th attempt is currently scheduled for Monday.
Except you're talking about compulsion in a situation of dire national emergency as if it were a totally novel and unprecedented moral outrage. It isn't.
Not so very long ago, millions of our forebears were conscripted to fight in wars. When society was faced with an existential threat, it demanded, amongst other things, that young people fight in battles and get blown up, shot through the head or drown in icy cold seas. And if you were called up then, unless you had a very good excuse (e.g. a reserved occupation or being medically unfit) then you bloody well went. The small minority of hardcore pacifists who refused to do service of any kind were complete social pariahs who ended up imprisoned.
Fast forward a few decades and now it's considered unforgivable to ask people to have a scratch on the arm every three or six months so as to try and avoid the entire bloody country ending up under house arrest for months on end, with the education of the nation's children wrecked, otherwise viable businesses driven to the wall en masse, and the state hurtling every closer to the cliff edge of bankruptcy into the bargain.
And if the cost of your repeated cancelled operations was that you ended up dead, I doubt your surviving relatives would feel so sanguine about this problem.
Yes, exactly
I confess my patience has ENTIRELY snapped with vax refuseniks like Dura, however entertaining he might be, on occasion. It especially snaps when he starts opining on bloody politics. To continue your analogy, it is like some conscientious objector in 1944 complaining about the awful tactics during D Day and demanding resignations. Jeez no. Do one. Fuck. Right. Off. Never speak again
But my anger - which is genuine - is running away with me, and I will rein it in, for the sake of the site. And the mods. FWIW I have the same anger to refuseniks in my personal life, I now find it very hard not to slap them. This is not "personal"
Goodnight
Good night Gilderoy.
Sean a Slytherin?
Makes sense.
More that he is a powdered lush who, when it comes to it, is functionally useless.
Re Quincel's header: I think that the parties ground games will be key. Are the Tories sending MPs over in numbers to canvass as was reported yesterday? The result boils down to one question: will the Conservatives get their vote out?
Good morning from 1E11. First class loaded to 90%, an awful lot of people heading away for a day / weekend of debauchery. And why not - we're going to spend January / February under siege from Omicron.
A double whammy for Liz Truss in @thetimes today from Matthew Parris and the leader column following her atrocious speech speech at Chatham House. As Matthew says, do read it to see for yourself to appreciate the depth of abasement of British foreign policy. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1469606410698858503/photo/1
The "Network of Liberty" is a pretty shady organisation, linking right wing populist across the globe.
Lots of people spinning against Ms "Pork Markets". They don't want to replace one erratic blonde egoist with another!
“ Vast majority of Britons have NO PROTECTION against Omicron: After 100 days two AstraZeneca doses offer virtually zero defence while two Pfizer jabs provide just 37% protection against new variant - but boosters cut risk of falling ill by 75%”
This is the simplistic nonsense that will lead us into lockdown before Christmas. Because our PM and Cabinet are too thick and poorly educated to understand why this sound byte is wrong.
I thought they had a team of experts to advise them?
A team of experts in the background is absolutely worthless when the people making the decisions are “thick” and “poorly educated”.
cf Brexit
Problem is, in Gove and Johnson we are governed by ex hacks, backed up by second rate media and comms people. The PM’s personal sounding board at home is an art history grad that worked in Pr.
In Sunak & Javid we have backgrounds who should be capable of absorbing technical info outside their expertise and executing decisions. But they’re greasy pole climbers.
Gove isn't thick at all - I've rarely met a politician more able to absorb the details of a complex brief. He's also very committed to doing stuff, and to confronting vested interests. That leads him into far more controversy than ministers who just keep the ship steady. If he was Chancellor, for instance, I could well imagine massive tax/NI reforms with lots of winners and losers - he would attract real loathing from some, but possibly produce a more sensible outcome for the economy. I'm interested to see what he'll do to the planning system - it won't be trivial.
It's why Cummings likes him - Gove is, for Cummings, one of the few politicians that are intelligent enough to be leading us.
I couldn’t care less what Gove thinks about halal meat. I do care that he appears to be the key motivator from within government for unending restrictions and interferences against our fundamental liberties, without ever having the courtesy to properly define the costs and benefits of those interventions.
Sure, I'm with you on that. I'm not a supporter of Gove but see that he is an intelligent guy.
A quick visit before the Christmas shopping expedition led by Mrs Stodge gets under way.
On topic, @Quincel is right - 7/4 is a stupid price for the party which won the seat with 63% of the vote just two years ago. As OGH frequently reminds us, betting isn't about predicting what will happen but looking for the value and that's value (and 2/1 or 9/4 would be even better value).
@MoonRabbit kindly invited me for my thoughts on the afternoon's equine activities.
I don't think it's a very strong punting afternoon.
At Cheltenham, I've had a little each way on AMOOLA GOLD in the 1.15 at 10s and backed GUARD YOUR DREAMS at 5s against the front two in the Unibet. I don't like playing in 7-runner races (I much prefer the dead eight) but I think he's a little bit of value.
I had a look at Doncaster - I haven't played but TOMMY'S OSCAR would be my each way bet in the 2.05 -he was available at 6s earlier.
At Hereford, there are more runners - I was at Lingfield when SEDDON lumped top weight and made all. I'm not sure he beat much and this is a better race but he's tempting at 11/4.
Indeed. I'm interested in whether HYUFD thinks a challenge is an odds-on chance if NS is lost. If the required letters go in but Johnson decides to compete in the resulting vote would he survive?
A no confidence vote is odds on if North Shropshire is lost, probably early the following week.
However I expect Boris would narrowly survive it at this stage, as May survived her first no confidence vote in December 2018.
If the Tories hold North Shropshire though Boris is safe, certainly until the local elections in May
Indeed. I'm interested in whether HYUFD thinks a challenge is an odds-on chance if NS is lost. If the required letters go in but Johnson decides to compete in the resulting vote would he survive?
I am hoping my forecast for a lib dem landslide in North Shropshire happens and then Brady and his committee go and tell Boris to resign, or he will be facing an immediate ballot
They can't do that without 56? letters.
54 letters which I think is quite a low bar if North Shropshire falls
In other words, the drop in the Con vote is statistically significant, and they have seeped support to all other parties.
(The one thing that polls are very poor at measuring is “churn”, which is likely here.)
Without going into the detail of that poll, I think most of the ex Tory vote is going to Don't Know with other parties increasing their share of the remaining vote correspondingly. This is significant if those votes return to the Tory fold later.
Starmer repeatedly used the word “lies” about the prime minister in the clip broadcast by Radio 4’s Midnight News. I was a bit taken aback. This is highly unusual language. He must be very, very confident that the case against BJ is rock solid.
Not really, everyone in the whole World knows that the disingenuous fat philanderer is one of the biggest liars out there.
Indeed, but senior and experienced lawyers, not to mention Leaders of the Opposition, almost never use the word about a prime minister.
It just felt like a watershed moment. Folk are no longer nervous about pointing at the obese, drunken, lazy, mendacious, unfaithful emperor and pointing out that he has no clothes.
He used the word 'lies' at PMQs in the week. The attribution of those lies is left in the air, so nobody is accused and thus it is not unparliamentary, but it is clear where SKS thinks they are emanating from.
It feels more natural than directly pointing at Boris and using 'must be mistaken', 'correct the record', 'economical with the actualite' and all that circuitous shite that just turns voters off to parliament. It is a good move.
I agree.
Starmer’s had a good week.
But the dilemma facing Tory MPs - should they ditch Boris or stick with him and let him trash the Tory brand - is exactly the same dilemma which faced Labour MPs and Shadow Cabinet Ministers when Corbyn was in charge.
How did they resolve that dilemma? How did Sir Keir? A lot of grumbling and no action.
SKS went for the easy life and climbing up the greasy pole when he faced an equivalent dilemma. So yes he's had a good week. Easy to criticise others for their faults. Far harder to show courage when it involves yourself.
And what is his party doing now? Supporting the Tories. He is not asking what financial support there will be for businesses affected by restrictions. He is not making such support a condition for his support.
On the last point, despite the Government being reliant on Opposition votes to apply the restrictions, Starmer has no leverage. Labour's USP on Covid, like that of the three devolved governments, is to always be in favour of something at least slightly more severe than what the Tories have proposed.
He cannot, therefore, plausibly threaten to vote against more restrictions - if they fail through lack of Labour support then he's effectively voting for something less severe than what the Tories have proposed, and will be skewered accordingly.
Indeed. Important to push for compensation of some sort for hospitality businesses at a critical time though, and sick pay for isolation.
But Labour aren't doing that. No-one is, as far as I can see. Businesses are being hung out to dry. Again.
Yeah the anger about rule-breaking parties is real and lying about them. It sounds as if pretty much every govt department was doing them and waving 2 fingers at the rules.
And probably quite a few other people as well.
But businesses cannot do that because they risk losing their licence to trade and they need the revenue. So instead of obsessing about what happened a year ago, what are we going to do now to help those affected while taking reasonable public health measures?
No-one is thinking sensibly about this. Instead it's just a pissing contest about parties and what happens in Westminster.
Daughter needs to plan what to buy in, by when, staff rotas, bookings etc - same as every other business and they've been left hanging.
Johnson explicitly said (my paraphrase) "do not cancel your Christmas parties". Are there not trade organisations with legal representation who could hold both the Government and Johnson personally to account here? Now the argument that things might have moved on in a fluid situation is spurious because in the previous exchange Whitty had urged people to embrace social distancing.
Whitty: "Don't party!
Johnson: "Party like it's 1999, but take a LFT first"
How is one to forward plan hospitality on that sort of messaging?
A tricky one. I am done with Christmas socialising and will be wearing an FFP3 when shopping later, and at the footy tomorrow. Unlike London there doesn't seem to be much Omnicron in Leicester just yet, but pretty nailed on there will be soon.
I am covering for colleagues on long overdue leave over the holidays, so really don't want to be isolating. Nor to miss out on seeing my brother and parents on Boxing Day.
That's where we are in a nutshell. People aren't "scared" of Omicron but worried if they are infected or come into contact with someone who subsequently turns out to be infected and they will miss spending Christmas with family/relatives/loved ones/the other winos in the gutter (delete as appropriate). That was the prevailing sentiment on my work team lunch discussion.
"I'd like to come but worried I might catch it or come into contact with someone and be forced to spend Christmas at home with a pot noodle" - or words to that effect.
In other words, the drop in the Con vote is statistically significant, and they have seeped support to all other parties.
(The one thing that polls are very poor at measuring is “churn”, which is likely here.)
In the latest yougov 7% has gone to Reform who are level with the Greens
The vote could go to the murali_s rebel alliance party - who cares! As long the vile Tories are on the slide, it's all good. Hope the slides continues for a long while yet. We need proper change in this country and for the first time in a long time, there is hope...
However, I urge caution for my fellow progressives as there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge.
I agree with your last sentence
The fall in grace for Boris has taken less than a few weeks and we are well over 2 years away from the next GE
The demands from Starmer, Sturgeon and others for Boris to resign must have their crossed fingers behind their backs that he doesn't
Re Quincel's header: I think that the parties ground games will be key. Are the Tories sending MPs over in numbers to canvass as was reported yesterday? The result boils down to one question: will the Conservatives get their vote out?
They were having trouble convincing someone with a Tory poster in their window !
We know the unvaxxed basically take up a huge proportion of critical care facilities. They also stay longer, next to age - and noone can change their age it's the single biggest factor in healthcare clogging. I think we're moving to a point where the choices are basically
i) Healthcare system collapses. ii) Mandatory vaccination. iii) More lockdowns for all.
I have been invited to a lunch party today. Would like to go. But mostly strangers.
Am triple vaccinated. Due to go back north later this week. If catch Covid have to isolate & also don't want to put Daughter at risk.
Mind you son meets strangers all day and comes home in the evening and have survived that.
Lots of hysteria and hyperbole about this new variant around - not least on here!
But seriously can I disregard or should I take precautions like this time last year?
You have to make your own call, but…
My view on all of this is simply that as I send my son to school every day, and my wife goes into the office 3-5 days a week, then I’m exposed to the virus anyway, regardless of what I myself do. What most people appear to be scared of now (rationally) is the ludicrous 10 day isolation rule.
At some point in the future, when the doves regain the upper hand, somebody needs to take on the 10 day rule. We cannot go on like this - where people fear the isolation far more than the virus itself!
I am putting myself out there on the theory that getting it while the booster is still recent is the best policy at this stage
In other words, the drop in the Con vote is statistically significant, and they have seeped support to all other parties.
(The one thing that polls are very poor at measuring is “churn”, which is likely here.)
In the latest yougov 7% has gone to Reform who are level with the Greens
The vote could go to the murali_s rebel alliance party - who cares! As long the vile Tories are on the slide, it's all good. Hope the slides continues for a long while yet. We need proper change in this country and for the first time in a long time, there is hope...
However, I urge caution for my fellow progressives as there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge.
I agree with your last sentence
The fall in grace for Boris has taken less than a few weeks and we are well over 2 years away from the next GE
The demands from Starmer, Sturgeon and others for Boris to resign must have their crossed fingers behind their backs that he doesn't
To be fair, there isn't much evidence that he wanted to bond with previous children. Also he would never be at work if he took it every time!
I suppose the downside is that he and Stanley's genes are scattered about more!
I think what still shakes me about the PM is that declaration one of us noted the other day that he signed that he was never married before as far as the RC church was concerned. And therefore publicly declared his children illegitimate in the eyes of the church in which he and his new wife were getting married. That is not something I could ever do lightly.
His older children must be getting to an age when they might decide to say 'something' publicly about their father. I wonder if one of them will.
I can't remember, on reflection, if the PM had to sign anything to say he was not previously married - I not having often got married in a PC church - but certainly that is the implication, that the preexisting marriages did not exist at all under RC doctrine.
That's about the size of it.
But that's imo just a twist in RC theology to get over the problems of RC theological absolutism. Once you land yourself with a series of "no way back" dogmas, then you are always going to end up obfuscating at the cost of ignoring, trimming or circumlocuting something else.
It's instructive how some of the more conservative protestant sects do their thinking on divorce, for example, compared to the RC approach.
RC has to declare that the former marriage never existed. Protestants also hold to absolutist standards wrt lifelong marriage once for all, but apply the Doctrines of forgiveness for making a mistake, which in divorce seems to me to be more human. Other systems do similar things.
OTOH on absolutist doctrinal views, RC theology is quite good with a recognition of 'individual conscience'.
RCs generally hold a harder line on divorce and gay marriage, certainly than the Anglican church, though Protestant evangelicals also tend to be more rigid and socially conservative on it.
Not only can divorcees get married in most Church of England churches (albeit a few hardline vicars can object on grounds of conscience as they do to women priests, something else that aligns them with Rome) but the Anglican church in the US, the Episcopal Church, also conducts blessings for gay couples, as now does the Church in Wales
In other words, the drop in the Con vote is statistically significant, and they have seeped support to all other parties.
(The one thing that polls are very poor at measuring is “churn”, which is likely here.)
Without going into the detail of that poll, I think most of the ex Tory vote is going to Don't Know with other parties increasing their share of the remaining vote correspondingly. This is significant if those votes return to the Tory fold later.
Re Quincel's header: I think that the parties ground games will be key. Are the Tories sending MPs over in numbers to canvass as was reported yesterday? The result boils down to one question: will the Conservatives get their vote out?
They were having trouble convincing someone with a Tory poster in their window !
She said her husband pot it there, but he's got dementia
Confusion around/resistance to tactical voting is the main factor on the left (and the fact their combined votes were still a minority last time!)
On the right, Reform’s performance will be interesting. Local candidate with strong Tory connections (she’s a former Borough Cllr, mum still a unitary councillor, dad used to lead the authority and was Paterson’s agent). I wouldn’t overstate the number of people that brings into her sphere.. but it’s probably more than Tice in Bexley. And she’s a handy receptacle for those pissed off at having a barrister parachuted in from Brum.
There are another 3 or 4 right-leaning candidates who could peel off a few hundred too.
It’s a by-election a week before Christmas (uncertain turnout), in an 80-seat majority Parliament (not deciding party of govt), and there’s no shortage of options for those who fancy wandering from the tribe in either direction. The question is how many fancy it.
I'd agree with the header - but having got Amersham wrong, am wary of calling this one; my feeling is that you need to have visited a by-election to have any sort of a feel. With Amersham the excited chatter within LD circles was late in coming, but it was there during the last week or so; with NS to date it's been strangely quiet. But then in C&A the LibDems had to make their own momentum; in NS there will be dissatisfied Tories everywhere and the question is how many of them can be rounded up in time. The LDs have certainly captured the media narrative - but have they done the same on the ground? Vauxhall against Hoey in 2017 is an example of a case where the media were captured but the voters weren't.
I'm not betting either way, because after Crerar on Newsnight there is simply too big a risk of another big revelation this week - which is surely the way Cummo would play it if indeed he has wargamed all this.
In other words, the drop in the Con vote is statistically significant, and they have seeped support to all other parties.
(The one thing that polls are very poor at measuring is “churn”, which is likely here.)
In the latest yougov 7% has gone to Reform who are level with the Greens
The vote could go to the murali_s rebel alliance party - who cares! As long the vile Tories are on the slide, it's all good. Hope the slides continues for a long while yet. We need proper change in this country and for the first time in a long time, there is hope...
However, I urge caution for my fellow progressives as there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge.
I agree with your last sentence
The fall in grace for Boris has taken less than a few weeks and we are well over 2 years away from the next GE
The demands from Starmer, Sturgeon and others for Boris to resign must have their crossed fingers behind their backs that he doesn't
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
Well that's a 50% strike rate which isn't bad I suppose.
He just needs to get Brexit done properly for full marks.
The problem with getting Brexit "over the line" is they have to keep redrawing where the line is.
For now it's in the Irish Sea, but even the guy that drew it thinks that's shit.
It's inconvenient for exporters like my employer, but noone really gives a toss about Brexit any more. If Starmer really feels he needs to shore up Tory support, that's where he'll move the agenda.
I don't think the PM has the political capital any more to go playing double or quits?
His best chance is to keep his head down and hope things go quieter, relying on his backbenchers to be as indecisive (and/or incompetent) as Labour's were against Corbyn.
FPT it’s a very slippery slope when you start judging people for needing the NHS. When does it end?
@Leon guzzles booze like nobody’s business. That’s a positive act that is likely to be an NHS resource drain in the future. Driving a car at 120mph is also a positive act. Refusing a vaccine is an omission.
It feels profoundly wrong to force people to put something into their own body.
I say this as someone who has had an operation cancelled 3 times already due to NHS pressures. 4th attempt is currently scheduled for Monday.
Except you're talking about compulsion in a situation of dire national emergency as if it were a totally novel and unprecedented moral outrage. It isn't.
Not so very long ago, millions of our forebears were conscripted to fight in wars. When society was faced with an existential threat, it demanded, amongst other things, that young people fight in battles and get blown up, shot through the head or drown in icy cold seas. And if you were called up then, unless you had a very good excuse (e.g. a reserved occupation or being medically unfit) then you bloody well went. The small minority of hardcore pacifists who refused to do service of any kind were complete social pariahs who ended up imprisoned.
Fast forward a few decades and now it's considered unforgivable to ask people to have a scratch on the arm every three or six months so as to try and avoid the entire bloody country ending up under house arrest for months on end, with the education of the nation's children wrecked, otherwise viable businesses driven to the wall en masse, and the state hurtling every closer to the cliff edge of bankruptcy into the bargain.
And if the cost of your repeated cancelled operations was that you ended up dead, I doubt your surviving relatives would feel so sanguine about this problem.
Yes, exactly
I confess my patience has ENTIRELY snapped with vax refuseniks like Dura, however entertaining he might be, on occasion. It especially snaps when he starts opining on bloody politics. To continue your analogy, it is like some conscientious objector in 1944 complaining about the awful tactics during D Day and demanding resignations. Jeez no. Do one. Fuck. Right. Off. Never speak again
But my anger - which is genuine - is running away with me, and I will rein it in, for the sake of the site. And the mods. FWIW I have the same anger to refuseniks in my personal life, I now find it very hard not to slap them. This is not "personal"
Goodnight
Good night Gilderoy.
Sean a Slytherin?
Makes sense.
Yes, I spotted that! Looks fantastic.
Range is tremendously important for our big car, as we frequently drive up to 6 hours to get into the mountains (usually for skiing, but cycling has exploded in popularity here). So we are looking at the more premium brands. I just do not like Teslas, the design is awful, and the chassis a piece of junk. Polestar have too many faults. BMW have not launched any “normal” all-electric cars yet, Hyundai too plasticky (although it is perhaps my fav at the moment), Kia and VW overpriced,
I hate to be boring, but I’m probably going for another ICE Volvo at this rate. It’ll be third in a row. They call the new ones “light hybrids”, but I don’t swallow much marketing guff.
I can recommend the Audi Q7. Fantastic in the snow and good to drive for such a large car. Loads of room for sports.
Thanks. Yes, we took a quick look at that, but I’m afraid it got an immediate veto on raw ugliness grounds.
It’s no oil painting! But a big bolshy bruiser of a car.
I’ve been looking to see if there’s a union I could join for paralegals/legal workers. There is one it seems but its so overtly political and “comradey” on Twitter etc its very off putting. Sad.
A tricky one. I am done with Christmas socialising and will be wearing an FFP3 when shopping later, and at the footy tomorrow. Unlike London there doesn't seem to be much Omnicron in Leicester just yet, but pretty nailed on there will be soon.
I am covering for colleagues on long overdue leave over the holidays, so really don't want to be isolating. Nor to miss out on seeing my brother and parents on Boxing Day.
That's where we are in a nutshell. People aren't "scared" of Omicron but worried if they are infected or come into contact with someone who subsequently turns out to be infected and they will miss spending Christmas with family/relatives/loved ones/the other winos in the gutter (delete as appropriate). That was the prevailing sentiment on my work team lunch discussion.
"I'd like to come but worried I might catch it or come into contact with someone and be forced to spend Christmas at home with a pot noodle" - or words to that effect.
Good points. I am thinking along similar lines. Family coming for Christmas, so I’ll probably steer clear of major spreading events from next week onwards so I’m clear for Christmas week. Plus I got boosted yesterday so should be properly Omicron-ready by the 25th.
Could we see the country go into voluntary hibernation for 2 weeks from this Monday? It seems plausible. This weekend might be the last hurrah.
I’ve been looking to see if there’s a union I could join for paralegals/legal workers. There is one it seems but its so overtly political and “comradey” on Twitter etc its very off putting. Sad.
Prospect? They are unaffiliated. Not sure whether they cover legal workers.
I’ve been looking to see if there’s a union I could join for paralegals/legal workers. There is one it seems but its so overtly political and “comradey” on Twitter etc its very off putting. Sad.
Re Quincel's header: I think that the parties ground games will be key. Are the Tories sending MPs over in numbers to canvass as was reported yesterday? The result boils down to one question: will the Conservatives get their vote out?
The way it works in a situation like this is that the Tory canvassers and knockers up stand there and take all the anger and complaints from the voters, coming away empty handed as far as recording positive VI is concerned, but the emotional release enables the voter to feel they've "made" their protest and some at least of them then become less inclined to "protest" again in the polling station.
Whether the Tories have sufficient people with sufficient resilience is the key question. Sending MPs there is probably the wrong answer - they'll want to argue back - they need people on the doorstep with empathy who are prepared simply to soak up the voters' pain.
In other words, the drop in the Con vote is statistically significant, and they have seeped support to all other parties.
(The one thing that polls are very poor at measuring is “churn”, which is likely here.)
In the latest yougov 7% has gone to Reform who are level with the Greens
The vote could go to the murali_s rebel alliance party - who cares! As long the vile Tories are on the slide, it's all good. Hope the slides continues for a long while yet. We need proper change in this country and for the first time in a long time, there is hope...
However, I urge caution for my fellow progressives as there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge.
I agree with your last sentence
The fall in grace for Boris has taken less than a few weeks and we are well over 2 years away from the next GE
The demands from Starmer, Sturgeon and others for Boris to resign must have their crossed fingers behind their backs that he doesn't
I’ve been looking to see if there’s a union I could join for paralegals/legal workers. There is one it seems but its so overtly political and “comradey” on Twitter etc its very off putting. Sad.
I think Starmer should have Labour vote against. The proposals are the usual half-baked illogical bullshit, pushed forward against their own advice by an executive desperate to deflect against BJgate.
Vote it down, propose an amendment to extend the sitting, propose an amendment to recall if required inbetween Christmas and New Year. Because if we don't we know that Peppa will be issuing executive decrees where the prevention of disease is only part of the consideration.
Confusion around/resistance to tactical voting is the main factor on the left (and the fact their combined votes were still a minority last time!)
On the right, Reform’s performance will be interesting. Local candidate with strong Tory connections (she’s a former Borough Cllr, mum still a unitary councillor, dad used to lead the authority and was Paterson’s agent). I wouldn’t overstate the number of people that brings into her sphere.. but it’s probably more than Tice in Bexley. And she’s a handy receptacle for those pissed off at having a barrister parachuted in from Brum.
There are another 3 or 4 right-leaning candidates who could peel off a few hundred too.
It’s a by-election a week before Christmas (uncertain turnout), in an 80-seat majority Parliament (not deciding party of govt), and there’s no shortage of options for those who fancy wandering from the tribe in either direction. The question is how many fancy it.
“ It’s a by-election a week before Christmas (uncertain turnout), “ Then why not do similar to at the football this time of year, pay £10 and bring a friend from outside the constituency to vote? 😃
Re Quincel's header: I think that the parties ground games will be key. Are the Tories sending MPs over in numbers to canvass as was reported yesterday? The result boils down to one question: will the Conservatives get their vote out?
The way it works in a situation like this is that the Tory canvassers and knockers up stand there and take all the anger and complaints from the voters, coming away empty handed as far as recording positive VI is concerned, but the emotional release enables the voter to feel they've "made" their protest and some at least of them then become less inclined to "protest" again in the polling station.
Whether the Tories have sufficient people with sufficient resilience is the key question. Sending MPs there is probably the wrong answer - they'll want to argue back - they need people on the doorstep with empathy who are prepared simply to soak up the voters' pain.
I’ve been looking to see if there’s a union I could join for paralegals/legal workers. There is one it seems but its so overtly political and “comradey” on Twitter etc its very off putting. Sad.
That's just window dressing. If you had a problem they'd be there for you. That's what matters.
We know the unvaxxed basically take up a huge proportion of critical care facilities. They also stay longer, next to age - and noone can change their age it's the single biggest factor in healthcare clogging. I think we're moving to a point where the choices are basically
i) Healthcare system collapses. ii) Mandatory vaccination. iii) More lockdowns for all.
Three isn’t an option. There’s no way household mixing etc. can be stopped now.
I suspect it’ll be 1, though what “collapse” amounts to, including length of time, remains to be seen.
I’ve been looking to see if there’s a union I could join for paralegals/legal workers. There is one it seems but its so overtly political and “comradey” on Twitter etc its very off putting. Sad.
Which union ?
Community is the usual general-purpose union, but the specialist one seems to be https://legaltradeunion.wordpress.com/ . Their website doesn't look especially political, and I've never heard of them before, which suggests they don't take a great interest in Labour affairs!
A quick visit before the Christmas shopping expedition led by Mrs Stodge gets under way.
On topic, @Quincel is right - 7/4 is a stupid price for the party which won the seat with 63% of the vote just two years ago. As OGH frequently reminds us, betting isn't about predicting what will happen but looking for the value and that's value (and 2/1 or 9/4 would be even better value).
@MoonRabbit kindly invited me for my thoughts on the afternoon's equine activities.
I don't think it's a very strong punting afternoon.
At Cheltenham, I've had a little each way on AMOOLA GOLD in the 1.15 at 10s and backed GUARD YOUR DREAMS at 5s against the front two in the Unibet. I don't like playing in 7-runner races (I much prefer the dead eight) but I think he's a little bit of value.
I had a look at Doncaster - I haven't played but TOMMY'S OSCAR would be my each way bet in the 2.05 -he was available at 6s earlier.
At Hereford, there are more runners - I was at Lingfield when SEDDON lumped top weight and made all. I'm not sure he beat much and this is a better race but he's tempting at 11/4.
Thank you Stodger for good pointers to make up my lucky15! 🙏🏻
I’ve been looking to see if there’s a union I could join for paralegals/legal workers. There is one it seems but its so overtly political and “comradey” on Twitter etc its very off putting. Sad.
Which union ?
“Legal Sector Workers Unite”
As @SandyRentool says might be worth joining despite the Corbynite vibes.
A tricky one. I am done with Christmas socialising and will be wearing an FFP3 when shopping later, and at the footy tomorrow. Unlike London there doesn't seem to be much Omnicron in Leicester just yet, but pretty nailed on there will be soon.
I am covering for colleagues on long overdue leave over the holidays, so really don't want to be isolating. Nor to miss out on seeing my brother and parents on Boxing Day.
That's where we are in a nutshell. People aren't "scared" of Omicron but worried if they are infected or come into contact with someone who subsequently turns out to be infected and they will miss spending Christmas with family/relatives/loved ones/the other winos in the gutter (delete as appropriate). That was the prevailing sentiment on my work team lunch discussion.
"I'd like to come but worried I might catch it or come into contact with someone and be forced to spend Christmas at home with a pot noodle" - or words to that effect.
Good points. I am thinking along similar lines. Family coming for Christmas, so I’ll probably steer clear of major spreading events from next week onwards so I’m clear for Christmas week. Plus I got boosted yesterday so should be properly Omicron-ready by the 25th.
Could we see the country go into voluntary hibernation for 2 weeks from this Monday? It seems plausible. This weekend might be the last hurrah.
That's my thinking. Will be living like a hermit through until Christmas.
A tricky one. I am done with Christmas socialising and will be wearing an FFP3 when shopping later, and at the footy tomorrow. Unlike London there doesn't seem to be much Omnicron in Leicester just yet, but pretty nailed on there will be soon.
I am covering for colleagues on long overdue leave over the holidays, so really don't want to be isolating. Nor to miss out on seeing my brother and parents on Boxing Day.
That's where we are in a nutshell. People aren't "scared" of Omicron but worried if they are infected or come into contact with someone who subsequently turns out to be infected and they will miss spending Christmas with family/relatives/loved ones/the other winos in the gutter (delete as appropriate). That was the prevailing sentiment on my work team lunch discussion.
"I'd like to come but worried I might catch it or come into contact with someone and be forced to spend Christmas at home with a pot noodle" - or words to that effect.
Good points. I am thinking along similar lines. Family coming for Christmas, so I’ll probably steer clear of major spreading events from next week onwards so I’m clear for Christmas week. Plus I got boosted yesterday so should be properly Omicron-ready by the 25th.
Could we see the country go into voluntary hibernation for 2 weeks from this Monday? It seems plausible. This weekend might be the last hurrah.
That's my thinking. Will be living like a hermit through until Christmas.
Me too; I'm determined to have the family Christmas this year, and don't want to put my elderly mother at risk
Re Quincel's header: I think that the parties ground games will be key. Are the Tories sending MPs over in numbers to canvass as was reported yesterday? The result boils down to one question: will the Conservatives get their vote out?
The way it works in a situation like this is that the Tory canvassers and knockers up stand there and take all the anger and complaints from the voters, coming away empty handed as far as recording positive VI is concerned, but the emotional release enables the voter to feel they've "made" their protest and some at least of them then become less inclined to "protest" again in the polling station.
Whether the Tories have sufficient people with sufficient resilience is the key question. Sending MPs there is probably the wrong answer - they'll want to argue back - they need people on the doorstep with empathy who are prepared simply to soak up the voters' pain.
Send in HYUFD!
Given turnout will be lower than the general election and Labour will still probably get about 10% of the vote, the Tories should be focusing on identifying 40-45% of voters who will be voting Tory on say a 50% turnout and then go hard on GOTV on Thursday (some already in the bag as postals). Given the best the LDs could get is probably 35-40% on Thursday that should be enough for the Tory candidate to scrape home
Well that's a 50% strike rate which isn't bad I suppose.
He just needs to get Brexit done properly for full marks.
The problem with getting Brexit "over the line" is they have to keep redrawing where the line is.
For now it's in the Irish Sea, but even the guy that drew it thinks that's shit.
It's inconvenient for exporters like my employer, but noone really gives a toss about Brexit any more. If Starmer really feels he needs to shore up Tory support, that's where he'll move the agenda.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
I’ve been looking to see if there’s a union I could join for paralegals/legal workers. There is one it seems but its so overtly political and “comradey” on Twitter etc its very off putting. Sad.
That's just window dressing. If you had a problem they'd be there for you. That's what matters.
Exactly. If there is some dispute with the employer - or, equally importantly, a fellow employee - you need serious backup. Even when there is no dispute, too. I found my union indispensable when I was offered (and accepted) redundancy during a downsizing and reorganization.
I think Starmer should have Labour vote against. The proposals are the usual half-baked illogical bullshit, pushed forward against their own advice by an executive desperate to deflect against BJgate.
Vote it down, propose an amendment to extend the sitting, propose an amendment to recall if required inbetween Christmas and New Year. Because if we don't we know that Peppa will be issuing executive decrees where the prevention of disease is only part of the consideration.
Labour have confirmed their support publicly in the media
To be fair, there isn't much evidence that he wanted to bond with previous children. Also he would never be at work if he took it every time!
I suppose the downside is that he and Stanley's genes are scattered about more!
I think what still shakes me about the PM is that declaration one of us noted the other day that he signed that he was never married before as far as the RC church was concerned. And therefore publicly declared his children illegitimate in the eyes of the church in which he and his new wife were getting married. That is not something I could ever do lightly.
His older children must be getting to an age when they might decide to say 'something' publicly about their father. I wonder if one of them will.
I can't remember, on reflection, if the PM had to sign anything to say he was not previously married - I not having often got married in a PC church - but certainly that is the implication, that the preexisting marriages did not exist at all under RC doctrine.
That's about the size of it.
But that's imo just a twist in RC theology to get over the problems of RC theological absolutism. Once you land yourself with a series of "no way back" dogmas, then you are always going to end up obfuscating at the cost of ignoring, trimming or circumlocuting something else.
It's instructive how some of the more conservative protestant sects do their thinking on divorce, for example, compared to the RC approach.
RC has to declare that the former marriage never existed. Protestants also hold to absolutist standards wrt lifelong marriage once for all, but apply the Doctrines of forgiveness for making a mistake, which in divorce seems to me to be more human. Other systems do similar things.
OTOH on absolutist doctrinal views, RC theology is quite good with a recognition of 'individual conscience'.
Thanks. I'm thinking of someone I knew who fell in love with a RC who was separated but they coulod never marry because the RC's spouse would never agree to divorce. I can't but feel there is an asymmetry in that approach ...
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
I think Starmer should have Labour vote against. The proposals are the usual half-baked illogical bullshit, pushed forward against their own advice by an executive desperate to deflect against BJgate.
Vote it down, propose an amendment to extend the sitting, propose an amendment to recall if required inbetween Christmas and New Year. Because if we don't we know that Peppa will be issuing executive decrees where the prevention of disease is only part of the consideration.
Labour have confirmed their support publicly in the media
Yep, after Streeting pledging Javid his support yesterday, they'll look pretty foolish suddenly finding a pretext to jump ship. Labour's broader strategy is, I suspect, that they're better off keeping the clown in place and hoping that things go from bad to worse, rather than risk having a fresh face showing Starmer up again. Which means they'll be trying to trash the LibDem effort in NS in the same way that they did in Finchley 2019.
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Yeah, I agree, but I don't see any relative motion on that in electoral terms. Any movement towards or away from Boris has been happening orthogonal to Brexit and I think that will continue.
To be fair, there isn't much evidence that he wanted to bond with previous children. Also he would never be at work if he took it every time!
I suppose the downside is that he and Stanley's genes are scattered about more!
I think what still shakes me about the PM is that declaration one of us noted the other day that he signed that he was never married before as far as the RC church was concerned. And therefore publicly declared his children illegitimate in the eyes of the church in which he and his new wife were getting married. That is not something I could ever do lightly.
I don't see the issue. Its just religious garbage, the RC doesn't recognise other marriages whatever he declares or doesn't, so its just some silly paperwork to sign. Shouldn't change anything between family members.
Agree with this. I find the whole notion of children being "illegitimate" on the basis of their parents' marital status deeply disturbing and offensive, and have said as much when a previous PB poster wanted to make something of it. I'm not about to suddenly take the other side of the argument just because it's something that can be used to criticise Boris Johnson with.
It's 2021 ffs. Illegitimate? Do one.
Point taken - illegitimacy in itself is of reducing importance. But if one signs up to a denomination [edit] which effectively regards it as a sin ... and, from another point of view, having your parents' marriage airbrushed out of history is a very nasty thing to have done to you, which is what this is about.
The scale of the PM’s problem with his Parliamentary party over COVID rules will likely depend on what happens with Omicron. If the news is bad, much of the criticism will disappear. If the news is good & it’s much milder, his critics will say he got it wrong & they were right. https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1469617620756447233
Part of the Afghan debacle was that the FCO and former DFID staff were all jockeying for jobs so weren't keeping their eye on the ball. Here we go again.
I think Starmer should have Labour vote against. The proposals are the usual half-baked illogical bullshit, pushed forward against their own advice by an executive desperate to deflect against BJgate.
Vote it down, propose an amendment to extend the sitting, propose an amendment to recall if required inbetween Christmas and New Year. Because if we don't we know that Peppa will be issuing executive decrees where the prevention of disease is only part of the consideration.
Labour have confirmed their support publicly in the media
Yes I know. For me they are wrong. Not because they should support the anti-maskers inthe Tory party but because the new rules are a joke. Masky masky in Tesco but not if you are singing? Fuxsake who writes this nonsense?
I think Starmer should have Labour vote against. The proposals are the usual half-baked illogical bullshit, pushed forward against their own advice by an executive desperate to deflect against BJgate.
Vote it down, propose an amendment to extend the sitting, propose an amendment to recall if required inbetween Christmas and New Year. Because if we don't we know that Peppa will be issuing executive decrees where the prevention of disease is only part of the consideration.
Labour have confirmed their support publicly in the media
Yes I know. For me they are wrong. Not because they should support the anti-maskers inthe Tory party but because the new rules are a joke. Masky masky in Tesco but not if you are singing? Fuxsake who writes this nonsense?
It is the mandatory Vaxports for large events and nightclubs which will make the biggest difference and that is where the biggest Tory rebellion will be and that is also where Starmer will correctly back Boris to ensure it goes through
F1: for Mr. Eagles, Ladbrokes have a double Verstappen/Hamilton DNF at 11. I'd be more inclined to back them individually, but there we are.
Edited extra bit: there's a weird one. Double DNF and Verstappen to win the title. The only way he doesn't is if he gets points deducted... possible. But a very controversial option when Hamilton got a 10s time penalty for ending Verstappen's British Grand Prix.
Is that right or could Hamilton win with a fastest lap point before both drivers dnf?
My problem here Scott is rabid Brexiteer PBers have been touting Steve (Hard Man) Baker as a candidate for PM. By comparison Johnson looks like a safe pair of hands.
I’ve been looking to see if there’s a union I could join for paralegals/legal workers. There is one it seems but its so overtly political and “comradey” on Twitter etc its very off putting. Sad.
That's just window dressing. If you had a problem they'd be there for you. That's what matters.
Exactly. If there is some dispute with the employer - or, equally importantly, a fellow employee - you need serious backup. Even when there is no dispute, too. I found my union indispensable when I was offered (and accepted) redundancy during a downsizing and reorganization.
In my days in hospital management those that were up before the beak without a TU representative were like lambs to the slaughter, and the HSCA reps so good that I left the BMA to join.
No need to get involved with any politics, but always join a decent union.
F1: for Mr. Eagles, Ladbrokes have a double Verstappen/Hamilton DNF at 11. I'd be more inclined to back them individually, but there we are.
Edited extra bit: there's a weird one. Double DNF and Verstappen to win the title. The only way he doesn't is if he gets points deducted... possible. But a very controversial option when Hamilton got a 10s time penalty for ending Verstappen's British Grand Prix.
Is that right or could Hamilton win with a fastest lap point before both drivers dnf?
You only win the fastest lap point if you finish in the top ten.
I agree North Shropshire could still be a narrow Tory hold. Voteshares something like Tories 40% LDs 35% Labour 10% RefUK 8% Others 7% is possible
I can't see the conservative voters of North Shropshire voting LD or Labour. I can see them sitting on their hands in great numbers. You may see a very low turnout as a result in which case you would have huge distortions to the figures for percentage shares. You might then see something extreme and unprecedented, like for example:
LDs 50%, Labour 20%, Ref UK 15%, Others (including Conservative) 15%.
This is not a prediction, but if I could find the appropriate market it would be the basis for a punt.
If I was a Conservative voter in North Shropshire then I would likely have long since voted by post. I might now be looking to see if there was some way of recalling my vote, but I doubt that is possible.
That's a plausible route for a Tory hold. The Opposition will need to turn out voters in large numbers to score a win.
Johnson is caught up in a pantomime of personal evasions - terrific column by @CamCavendish highlighting the alarming ways in which the Johnson government's lies and incompetence are starting to damage state capacity. https://on.ft.com/3GpCANc via @FT
A double whammy for Liz Truss in @thetimes today from Matthew Parris and the leader column following her atrocious speech speech at Chatham House. As Matthew says, do read it to see for yourself to appreciate the depth of abasement of British foreign policy. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1469606410698858503/photo/1
The "Network of Liberty" is a pretty shady organisation, linking right wing populist across the globe.
Lots of people spinning against Ms "Pork Markets". They don't want to replace one erratic blonde egoist with another!
Evidence that that was what she was talking about?
Perhaps she meant Liberty Network, which is a Lib Dem Ginger Group
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
I think Starmer should have Labour vote against. The proposals are the usual half-baked illogical bullshit, pushed forward against their own advice by an executive desperate to deflect against BJgate.
Vote it down, propose an amendment to extend the sitting, propose an amendment to recall if required inbetween Christmas and New Year. Because if we don't we know that Peppa will be issuing executive decrees where the prevention of disease is only part of the consideration.
Labour have confirmed their support publicly in the media
Yes I know. For me they are wrong. Not because they should support the anti-maskers inthe Tory party but because the new rules are a joke. Masky masky in Tesco but not if you are singing? Fuxsake who writes this nonsense?
It is the mandatory Vaxports for large events and nightclubs which will make the biggest difference and that is where the biggest Tory rebellion will be and that is also where Starmer will correctly back Boris to ensure it goes through
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
1st Jan when we take back control?
A perfect storm developing...
So by the new year we have: -Brexit chaos -war with Russia -3-0 down in the Ashes (I say "we", but that's more "you") -OMICRON, DESTROYER OF LEON'S HOOP or whatever it's called this hour -Tory leadership contest(?) -anything else?
So on a scale of 1 to totally fucked, where sits the PM today?
8. He's drinking in the last chance saloon and a crowd of voters from North Salop are waiting outside to have a word. The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
Was interesting to see the Daily Express put the boot in over trading performance. Brexit has taken the global issues of the last 18 months and made them significantly worse for us. And thats before the hellfest starts on 1st January. Despite us imposing the restrictions and red tape we demanded so much later than envisaged, we still do not remotely have the capacity to cope with the BA/HMRC workload that is about to smash us over the head.
1st Jan when we take back control?
A perfect storm developing...
It's not control of course. Its out of control. We now require all paperwork doing up front. The half-way house that has been working gets binned and everyone has to learn a new way to prepare a lot more paperwork. The problem is that whilst we require the paperwork to be checked we have neither the people to check them or the facilities to park the trucks when they are checked...
I think Starmer should have Labour vote against. The proposals are the usual half-baked illogical bullshit, pushed forward against their own advice by an executive desperate to deflect against BJgate.
Vote it down, propose an amendment to extend the sitting, propose an amendment to recall if required inbetween Christmas and New Year. Because if we don't we know that Peppa will be issuing executive decrees where the prevention of disease is only part of the consideration.
Labour have confirmed their support publicly in the media
Yes I know. For me they are wrong. Not because they should support the anti-maskers inthe Tory party but because the new rules are a joke. Masky masky in Tesco but not if you are singing? Fuxsake who writes this nonsense?
It is the mandatory Vaxports for large events and nightclubs which will make the biggest difference and that is where the biggest Tory rebellion will be and that is also where Starmer will correctly back Boris to ensure it goes through
"correctly back Boris".
Only a deviated prevert backs Boris any more.
Starmer is correctly putting the national interest first and ordering Labour MPs to vote with Boris for Vaxports to get more vaccinated. I commend Sir Keir for that.
Better than Corbyn who played party politics when he ordered Labour MPs to vote down May's Brexit Deal despite the fact he had little disagreement with it
My problem here Scott is rabid Brexiteer PBers have been touting Steve (Hard Man) Baker as a candidate for PM. By comparison Johnson looks like a safe pair of hands.
Well quite,
"Steve Baker" is the answer to the question "Which far-right, out-of-touch, dim, and rather odd MP do the Tories choose for leader if they want to face electoral wipeout?"
Can someone please clarify the situation regarding Plan B. Is this still to be voted on? I assume so as there are 60 CP MPs against and opposition parties needed to get it over the line, though some measures have already come in. Is it solely the vax passport aspects that are being voted on?
Comments
Con: 32% (-1 from 8-9 Dec)
Lab: 40% (+3)
Lib Dem: 8% (-1)
Reform UK: 7% (+1)
Green: 7% (=)
SNP: 4% (-1)
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1469597398838226945
However, I urge caution for my fellow progressives as there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge.
Confusion around/resistance to tactical voting is the main factor on the left (and the fact their combined votes were still a minority last time!)
On the right, Reform’s performance will be interesting. Local candidate with strong Tory connections (she’s a former Borough Cllr, mum still a unitary councillor, dad used to lead the authority and was Paterson’s agent). I wouldn’t overstate the number of people that brings into her sphere.. but it’s probably more than Tice in Bexley. And she’s a handy receptacle for those pissed off at having a barrister parachuted in from Brum.
There are another 3 or 4 right-leaning candidates who could peel off a few hundred too.
It’s a by-election a week before Christmas (uncertain turnout), in an 80-seat majority Parliament (not deciding party of govt), and there’s no shortage of options for those who fancy wandering from the tribe in either direction. The question is how many fancy it.
Lots of people spinning against Ms "Pork Markets". They don't want to replace one erratic blonde egoist with another!
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1469350827840217097?s=21
A quick visit before the Christmas shopping expedition led by Mrs Stodge gets under way.
On topic, @Quincel is right - 7/4 is a stupid price for the party which won the seat with 63% of the vote just two years ago. As OGH frequently reminds us, betting isn't about predicting what will happen but looking for the value and that's value (and 2/1 or 9/4 would be even better value).
@MoonRabbit kindly invited me for my thoughts on the afternoon's equine activities.
I don't think it's a very strong punting afternoon.
At Cheltenham, I've had a little each way on AMOOLA GOLD in the 1.15 at 10s and backed GUARD YOUR DREAMS at 5s against the front two in the Unibet. I don't like playing in 7-runner races (I much prefer the dead eight) but I think he's a little bit of value.
I had a look at Doncaster - I haven't played but TOMMY'S OSCAR would be my each way bet in the 2.05 -he was available at 6s earlier.
At Hereford, there are more runners - I was at Lingfield when SEDDON lumped top weight and made all. I'm not sure he beat much and this is a better race but he's tempting at 11/4.
However I expect Boris would narrowly survive it at this stage, as May survived her first no confidence vote in December 2018.
If the Tories hold North Shropshire though Boris is safe, certainly until the local elections in May
GE2019 Lab Decrease 7.9 pp
GE 2017 Lab increase 9.6 pp
GE 2015 LD Decrease 15.1 pp
GE 2010 Lab Decrease 6.2 pp
It is not like they care either about Ireland or the Union anyway.
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1469603534081568779
https://twitter.com/davidgauke/status/1469601547478880262
Are there not trade organisations with legal representation who could hold both the Government and Johnson personally to account here? Now the argument that things might have moved on in a fluid situation is spurious because in the previous exchange Whitty had urged people to embrace social distancing.
Whitty: "Don't party!
Johnson: "Party like it's 1999, but take a LFT first"
How is one to forward plan hospitality on that sort of messaging?
"I'd like to come but worried I might catch it or come into contact with someone and be forced to spend Christmas at home with a pot noodle" - or words to that effect.
The fall in grace for Boris has taken less than a few weeks and we are well over 2 years away from the next GE
The demands from Starmer, Sturgeon and others for Boris to resign must have their crossed fingers behind their backs that he doesn't
4b) non vaccination surcharge
He just needs to get Brexit done properly for full marks.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating
Not only can divorcees get married in most Church of England churches (albeit a few hardline vicars can object on grounds of conscience as they do to women priests, something else that aligns them with Rome) but the Anglican church in the US, the Episcopal Church, also conducts blessings for gay couples, as now does the Church in Wales
Biggest-ever rebellion for Boris: his vaccine passport plan can now only be saved by Starmer
Full list:⬇️
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-list-the-plan-b-tory-rebels
Lab: 41% (+8)
Con: 33% (-12)
LD: 7% (-5)
Grn: 6% (+3)
SNP: 5% (+1)
Now I doubt there'll be a 10 pt swing against the Tories at the next election, but around half this gets Starmer into power.
For now it's in the Irish Sea, but even the guy that drew it thinks that's shit.
I'm not betting either way, because after Crerar on Newsnight there is simply too big a risk of another big revelation this week - which is surely the way Cummo would play it if indeed he has wargamed all this.
The noisier ones want to run him out of town, but there are quieter ones who might just step in to save him.
His best chance is to keep his head down and hope things go quieter, relying on his backbenchers to be as indecisive (and/or incompetent) as Labour's were against Corbyn.
Could we see the country go into voluntary hibernation for 2 weeks from this Monday? It seems plausible. This weekend might be the last hurrah.
Whether the Tories have sufficient people with sufficient resilience is the key question. Sending MPs there is probably the wrong answer - they'll want to argue back - they need people on the doorstep with empathy who are prepared simply to soak up the voters' pain.
Vote it down, propose an amendment to extend the sitting, propose an amendment to recall if required inbetween Christmas and New Year. Because if we don't we know that Peppa will be issuing executive decrees where the prevention of disease is only part of the consideration.
HM Govt of Gibraltar
@GibraltarGov
COVID-19 BOOSTER VACCINATION PROGRAMME
All people in Gibraltar aged 16 and over, are now being offered a booster dose.
Booster doses can now be given three months after the second dose of vaccine.
Register your interest online via - http://gha.gi/pfizerbooster/
I suspect it’ll be 1, though what “collapse” amounts to, including length of time, remains to be seen.
The problem with Brexit is, and has been since 2016, is that no-one has done the damage limitation on it. At some point people will have to face up to it and accept the UK will be cutting deals with a largely indifferent European Union with very little influence over the outcomes. We're not at the point yet.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1469617202584342528
https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1469617620756447233
Where's a Wagner mercenary with a Kornet when you need one?
My problem here Scott is rabid Brexiteer PBers have been touting Steve (Hard Man) Baker as a candidate for PM. By comparison Johnson looks like a safe pair of hands.
No need to get involved with any politics, but always join a decent union.
So a DNF won't earn you the fastest lap point.
That's a plausible route for a Tory hold. The Opposition will need to turn out voters in large numbers to score a win.
Certainty to vote down to 69 for Con of CURRENT supporters (Lan 73, LD 57).
Perhaps she meant Liberty Network, which is a Lib Dem Ginger Group
A perfect storm developing...
Only a deviated prevert backs Boris any more.
-Brexit chaos
-war with Russia
-3-0 down in the Ashes (I say "we", but that's more "you")
-OMICRON, DESTROYER OF LEON'S HOOP or whatever it's called this hour
-Tory leadership contest(?)
-anything else?
Better than Corbyn who played party politics when he ordered Labour MPs to vote down May's Brexit Deal despite the fact he had little disagreement with it
"Steve Baker" is the answer to the question "Which far-right, out-of-touch, dim, and rather odd MP do the Tories choose for leader if they want to face electoral wipeout?"