The FO is not fit for purpose as evidenced in the select committee last week
Cutting headcount by 20% seems unlikely to help that. There's lots of room for savings though -> hire more locals abroad and be less generous with all the perks (free rent abroad, extra holiday allowances, free flights etc.)
You'll get no-one of quality applying if your remove free rent abroad. You are already asking two-career households to effectively forego one career, and to maintain a house in London. The extra holiday allowance is to allow diplomats to spend at least some time in the UK so they continue to know the country they represent. The Dutch used to have separate Foreign Office and Diplomatic personnel, with the former permanently in the Hague and the latter serving permanently abroad until that led to Ambassadors who were representing what the NL was 30 years ago (and policy-makers who had little clue of the outside world).
Again, how do you recruit quality personnel without free rent oversees, travel to maintain family ties, and time to spend in the country you are representing?
Under Blair, the FCO core diplomatic personnel was slashed by over 50%. It lost is surge capacity. It now functions in permanent crisis mode. I think the NHS is finding out how damaging that is as an MO.
This is the same story across government though. The way civil servants are treated is insulting. Second class travel. Domestically it is hreadbare travelodges with 'breakfast boxes'. Impossible to claim expenses. They put out calls for people to take up the opportunity of going to Iraq for 6 months and living in a portacabin. The diplomatic service is run more like a cheapskate church mission, than anything we may have previously thought of as a government service. This is all a legacy of austerity, it can be traced back to D Cameron and G Osborne. They may well come to be regarded as the men who ruined Britain.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Doesn't look particularly robust even in "Rest of South"
Nope. A feature of recent Council results has been the monster swings against Cons in some very surprising places in the Home Counties. Much, much worse than the SW, which has held up relatively well. As as the East. On 38-34 some unlikely places indeed will fall.
Its all so predictable, a SAGE leak here, a Neil Ferguson interview there, a SPI-M predicting maasive numbers.
"No Prime Minister could listen to this advise and these numbers and not act. I say with a very heavy heart that we have no choice. But our fantastic booster plans will save the day I can promise you and that by say Easter we will be living a normal life again" etc etc etc.
This is tittle tattle. It is the lying about the party that is causing the real problems not the party itself. Both from cabinet ministers who are expected to go on TV several times a year and say black is white with a straight face, and the audience who are finally fed up with being taken for fools.
Whether someone working had a beer after work during lockdown is not a big deal.
Also, I think given we know Boris will throw people under the bus to save himself and he hasn't here, everybody with half a brain can work out at very least he gave them the nudge nudge wink wink to have the Christmas piss up. And now he has to argue black is white, as he is stuck.
Good to see Liverpool Victoria having their demutualisation sale of themselves to Bain capital rejected by members (me included) - Mutuals are the best model for a lot of business certainly financial business
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Doesn't look particularly robust even in "Rest of South"
The Midlands is becoming the Tory heartlands. Given I'd expect a sizeable Lab lead in Wales, they must be in front there. Still open to a convincing explanation as to why.
Urban Midlands is still pretty red, between traditional urban voters, ethnic voters and universities. It is the medium sized towns and shires that have swallowed Brexitism. A lot is demographic* but also the decline of manufacturing and mining employment.
*Starmer needs to be making inroads with grey voters as much or more than with geographic regions. If the over 65s switch substantially to Labour we are in landslide territory.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
The problem is that Johnson at least has settled on various 'tyranny of the majority' style policies as his ticket to staying in power. He seems alarmingly untroubled by the rights of unpopular minorities.
Its all so predictable, a SAGE leak here, a Neil Ferguson interview there, a SPI-M predicting maasive numbers.
"No Prime Minister could listen to this advise and these numbers and not act. I say with a very heavy heart that we have no choice. But our fantastic booster plans will save the day I can promise you and that by say Easter we will be living a normal life again" etc etc etc.
What day will he do the deed?
Pick a date when you think he should politically, then add 2 weeks....
Its all so predictable, a SAGE leak here, a Neil Ferguson interview there, a SPI-M predicting maasive numbers.
"No Prime Minister could listen to this advise and these numbers and not act. I say with a very heavy heart that we have no choice. But our fantastic booster plans will save the day I can promise you and that by say Easter we will be living a normal life again" etc etc etc.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
Smoking ban made dance floors go overnight from smelly smoky to stale beer farts.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
The problem is that Johnson at least has settled on various 'tyranny of the majority' style policies as his ticket to staying in power. He seems alarmingly untroubled by the rights of unpopular minorities.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
My virulent anti-vaxxer friend is now on day 9 in ICU. He seems to be getting better, so will no doubt convince himself that it was better than getting jabbed.
He and his wife were also rabidly anti-Trump. How they square the circle of being in the same camp as the Republican nutters is beyond me.
Rather than smoking regs, more like those who used to drink and drive. You stood a real chance of being wiped out by some selfish arse who genuinely thought they drove just as well pissed as sober. Thankfully, Darwinism has pretty much seen off the remaining stump of those idiots. As it will Covid. Just don't expect a functioning NHS until it has.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Doesn't look particularly robust even in "Rest of South"
The Midlands is becoming the Tory heartlands. Given I'd expect a sizeable Lab lead in Wales, they must be in front there. Still open to a convincing explanation as to why.
Urban Midlands is still pretty red, between traditional urban voters, ethnic voters and universities. It is the medium sized towns and shires that have swallowed Brexitism. A lot is demographic* but also the decline of manufacturing and mining employment.
*Starmer needs to be making inroads with grey voters as much or more than with geographic regions. If the over 65s switch substantially to Labour we are in landslide territory.
I suspect a thread in their GE24 manifesto on 'Standards in Public Life' would go down well. Some danger of course, on the 'glass house' front, but if carefully developed it would play to the grey vote imho.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
My virulent anti-vaxxer friend is now on day 9 in ICU. He seems to be getting better, so will no doubt convince himself that it was better than getting jabbed.
He and his wife were also rabidly anti-Trump. How they square the circle of being in the same camp as the Republican nutters is beyond me.
Rather than smoking regs, more like those who used to drink and drive. You stood a real chance of being wiped out by some selfish arse who genuinely thought they drove just as well pissed as sober. Thankfully, Darwinism has pretty much seen off the remaining stump of those idiots. As it will Covid. Just don't expect a functioning NHS until it has.
Antivaxxer coalition is a set of strange bed fellows, very right wing, very left wing, ultra orthodox religious types, BAME and yoga mums....
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Hell of a Scottish subsample especially with the footie referee inveighing against Mr J - but perhaps partly because of that.
And that Scotland sample shows why Labour have a mountain to climb to even gain a majority of 1
It's a fair point although worth pointing out that even without Scotland seats Blair would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001.
(Edit: And even in 2005 Blair won an absolute majority of the combined England, Wales and NI seats).
And if every Scottish seat had gone Labour, Milliband & Corbyn still wouldn’t have been close to a majority. I do wonder if Labour fixate too much on Scotland at times, for whatever psychological reasons.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
My virulent anti-vaxxer friend is now on day 9 in ICU. He seems to be getting better, so will no doubt convince himself that it was better than getting jabbed.
He and his wife were also rabidly anti-Trump. How they square the circle of being in the same camp as the Republican nutters is beyond me.
Rather than smoking regs, more like those who used to drink and drive. You stood a real chance of being wiped out by some selfish arse who genuinely thought they drove just as well pissed as sober. Thankfully, Darwinism has pretty much seen off the remaining stump of those idiots. As it will Covid. Just don't expect a functioning NHS until it has.
Remembering when they brought in breathalysers: those d & d types howled enormously about, as they saw it, being singled out and hunted down by the forces of the state.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Doesn't look particularly robust even in "Rest of South"
The Midlands is becoming the Tory heartlands. Given I'd expect a sizeable Lab lead in Wales, they must be in front there. Still open to a convincing explanation as to why.
Urban Midlands is still pretty red, between traditional urban voters, ethnic voters and universities. It is the medium sized towns and shires that have swallowed Brexitism. A lot is demographic* but also the decline of manufacturing and mining employment.
*Starmer needs to be making inroads with grey voters as much or more than with geographic regions. If the over 65s switch substantially to Labour we are in landslide territory.
Agreed. Except it doesn't have to be substantially really. It only takes a small few to switch and a few more to not vote or go third Party, as the cohort is so big and so very very blue.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Hell of a Scottish subsample especially with the footie referee inveighing against Mr J - but perhaps partly because of that.
And that Scotland sample shows why Labour have a mountain to climb to even gain a majority of 1
It's a fair point although worth pointing out that even without Scotland seats Blair would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001.
(Edit: And even in 2005 Blair won an absolute majority of the combined England, Wales and NI seats).
And if every Scottish seat had gone Labour, Milliband & Corbyn still wouldn’t have been close to a majority. I do wonder if Labour fixate too much on Scotland at times, for whatever psychological reasons.
Like some Brexiters hanker after empire? Scotland was once Labour's satrapy to do with as it wished, with lots of nice jobs for the folk in mewtaphorical red spinal pads and empire-builder shorts.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
The problem is that Johnson at least has settled on various 'tyranny of the majority' style policies as his ticket to staying in power. He seems alarmingly untroubled by the rights of unpopular minorities.
Populism.
Yes. Populism is great provided you stay out of the outgroup. Trouble is it is hard to do that for every issue.
Breakthrough in the fishing talks, the UK has granted 18 new licences for EU replacement vessels in its waters and Jersey has granted another five licences for EU boats in its waters. Talks continue and the Commission hopes to have secured another seven licences by Monday https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1469646036885020674
Good to see Liverpool Victoria having their demutualisation sale of themselves to Bain capital rejected by members (me included) - Mutuals are the best model for a lot of business certainly financial business
Yep. And it is an issue of consumer choice too. My Mum will be delighted.
Nobody believes the modellers any more. Their track record is absolutely terrible.
We all know that, but the pressure from the media will be enormous. They never call the modellers out of their previous prediction fails (nor that often those of us with a background in computational modelling can see massive flaws), they just repeat them as the word of god, then frame every question of the government in terms of how many grannies are you willing to let die, will you let the NHS get overloaded, etc.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
Smoking ban made dance floors go overnight from smelly smoky to stale beer farts.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Hell of a Scottish subsample especially with the footie referee inveighing against Mr J - but perhaps partly because of that.
And that Scotland sample shows why Labour have a mountain to climb to even gain a majority of 1
It's a fair point although worth pointing out that even without Scotland seats Blair would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001.
(Edit: And even in 2005 Blair won an absolute majority of the combined England, Wales and NI seats).
And if every Scottish seat had gone Labour, Milliband & Corbyn still wouldn’t have been close to a majority. I do wonder if Labour fixate too much on Scotland at times, for whatever psychological reasons.
Like some Brexiters hanker after empire? Scotland was once Labour's satrapy to do with as it wished, with lots of nice jobs for the folk in mewtaphorical red spinal pads and empire-builder shorts.
It's an interesting question, if you take a chunk of voters for granted for decades, how many electoral cycles does it take to get over their loss? Lab have still a way to go I feel; I can't find the tweet but one of their more numptyish MSPs was at it only this week, trying the only way for Scotland to get rid of Johnson is to vote for SKS schtick.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
My virulent anti-vaxxer friend is now on day 9 in ICU. He seems to be getting better, so will no doubt convince himself that it was better than getting jabbed.
He and his wife were also rabidly anti-Trump. How they square the circle of being in the same camp as the Republican nutters is beyond me.
Rather than smoking regs, more like those who used to drink and drive. You stood a real chance of being wiped out by some selfish arse who genuinely thought they drove just as well pissed as sober. Thankfully, Darwinism has pretty much seen off the remaining stump of those idiots. As it will Covid. Just don't expect a functioning NHS until it has.
As I have mentioned before, this drinking and driving line was exactly he one used by Penn Jillette who was a prominent US Libertarian. He said it was a mistake to equate masks and vaccines with seatbelts as many were doing. If you don't wear a seatbelt then the chances are the only person you will be hurting is yourself. He much preferred to equate the anti-vaxxers with those who drink and drive. They are not only risking killing themselves but others as well.
Too many people with a Libertarian bent want to focus on the individual 'rights' but pointedly ignore the more important aspect of individual responsibility.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
My virulent anti-vaxxer friend is now on day 9 in ICU. He seems to be getting better, so will no doubt convince himself that it was better than getting jabbed.
He and his wife were also rabidly anti-Trump. How they square the circle of being in the same camp as the Republican nutters is beyond me.
Rather than smoking regs, more like those who used to drink and drive. You stood a real chance of being wiped out by some selfish arse who genuinely thought they drove just as well pissed as sober. Thankfully, Darwinism has pretty much seen off the remaining stump of those idiots. As it will Covid. Just don't expect a functioning NHS until it has.
As I have mentioned before, this drinking and driving line was exactly he one used by Penn Jillette who was a prominent US Libertarian. He said it was a mistake to equate masks and vaccines with seatbelts as many were doing. If you don't wear a seatbelt then the chances are the only person you will be hurting is yourself. He much preferred to equate the anti-vaxxers with those who drink and drive. They are not only risking killing themselves but others as well.
Too many people with a Libertarian bent want to focus on the individual 'rights' but pointedly ignore the more important aspect of individual responsibility.
Penn Jillette is an awesome dude in many, many ways.
And many say Starmer is not responsible. But Labour is polling 40 now, when Corbyn left it was as low as 26.
Starmer has rebuilt the 40% coalition that is essentially key to Labour forcing a Hung Parliament. If he can built to 43% he’ll be onto majority territory.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
And many say Starmer is not responsible. But Labour is polling 40 now, when Corbyn left it was as low as 26.
Starmer has rebuilt the 40% coalition that is essentially key to Labour forcing a Hung Parliament. If he can built to 43% he’ll be onto majority territory.
I have never underestimated how good he could be.
Why so excitable? Starmer was at 40%+ late last year.
Starmer up against anyone else would surely result in at best, 2015 repeat. I think my strong-ish feeling is that this is just the end of the Tories for the time being.
Time to get some time out of Government, reset and go back to being a proud institution once again
Tougher Covid restrictions may be needed to prevent Omicron causing anywhere between 25,000 to 75,000 deaths in England over the next five months, according to scientists advising the government.
We are following the same pattern as every other lockdown, the briefings, the leaking, the scary models....next the media will be asking every government official how can you accept 75k extra deaths....
Get stocked up on bog rolls, pasta and oven gloves because lockdown is coming.
We aren't, voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants by 49% to 31% in the new Comres poll and oppose a ban on meeting other households indoors by 47% to 30%. Boris won't dare introduce another lockdown given those numbers.
Vaxports, which voters do now support, are as far as he will go
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
You are probably right. But that is not really enough for me to commit any money to it. The rewards may be greater backing a horse this far out but the risks are also far greater.
Tougher Covid restrictions may be needed to prevent Omicron causing anywhere between 25,000 to 75,000 deaths in England over the next five months, according to scientists advising the government.
We are following the same pattern as every other lockdown, the briefings, the leaking, the scary models....next the media will be asking every government official how can you accept 75k extra deaths....
Get stocked up on bog rolls, pasta and oven gloves because lockdown is coming.
We aren't, voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants by 49% to 31% in the new Comres poll and oppose a ban on meeting other households indoors by 47% to 30%. Boris won't introduce another lockdown given those numbers.
Vaxports, which voters do now support, are as far as he will go
The public opinion veers from one extreme to the other. Its lock us down, open the pubs, down the pub, down the pub, doooooown the pub, what the f##k, 100k cases a day, why didn't the government lock us down earlier...cases have fallen, open the pubs....down the pub, down the pub, down the pubbbbb....
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
You are probably right. But that is not really enough for me to commit any money to it. The rewards may be greater backing a horse this far out but the risks are also far greater.
In my view, a Labour majority comes from Tory vote slipping, 40% +- a few points is basically Labour ceiling.
Labour were basically dead in the water, year and half ago, the worst PM in history, and the most corrupt govt have saved them, on that point I think you are right, 40% is almost certainly labour's ceiling, it's more important where the tory vote goes, 34%, and they are in real trouble
And many say Starmer is not responsible. But Labour is polling 40 now, when Corbyn left it was as low as 26.
Starmer has rebuilt the 40% coalition that is essentially key to Labour forcing a Hung Parliament. If he can built to 43% he’ll be onto majority territory.
I have never underestimated how good he could be.
Why so excitable? Starmer was at 40%+ late last year.
It is the Tory share against that 40% which is key though.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Hell of a Scottish subsample especially with the footie referee inveighing against Mr J - but perhaps partly because of that.
And that Scotland sample shows why Labour have a mountain to climb to even gain a majority of 1
It's a fair point although worth pointing out that even without Scotland seats Blair would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001.
(Edit: And even in 2005 Blair won an absolute majority of the combined England, Wales and NI seats).
Blair was an exception though and won Tory seats in England no Labour leader had ever won before as he was more like an old school Liberal leader than a socialist or even a social democrat.
Other than under Blair, since universal suffrage in 1918 Labour have only won a majority in England in 1945 and 1966
And many say Starmer is not responsible. But Labour is polling 40 now, when Corbyn left it was as low as 26.
Starmer has rebuilt the 40% coalition that is essentially key to Labour forcing a Hung Parliament. If he can built to 43% he’ll be onto majority territory.
I have never underestimated how good he could be.
Why so excitable? Starmer was at 40%+ late last year.
It is the Tory share against that 40% which is key though.
But what's that go to to with Starmer apparently having rebuilt the 40% coalition, which was already there 12 months ago.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Tougher Covid restrictions may be needed to prevent Omicron causing anywhere between 25,000 to 75,000 deaths in England over the next five months, according to scientists advising the government.
We are following the same pattern as every other lockdown, the briefings, the leaking, the scary models....next the media will be asking every government official how can you accept 75k extra deaths....
Get stocked up on bog rolls, pasta and oven gloves because lockdown is coming.
We aren't, voters oppose closing pubs and restaurants by 49% to 31% in the new Comres poll and oppose a ban on meeting other households indoors by 47% to 30%. Boris won't introduce another lockdown given those numbers.
Vaxports, which voters do now support, are as far as he will go
The public opinion veers from one extreme to the other. Its lock us down, open the pubs, down the pub, down the pub, doooooown the pub, what the f##k, 100k cases a day, why didn't the government lock us down earlier...cases have fallen, open the pubs....down the pub, down the pub, down the pubbbbb....
It happens every time.
Indeed.
Thank goodness we have a rational government that leads in the interests of the whole country rather than one that thrashes around chasing the latest popular whim in an effort to distract from their own misdemeanours. (!)
Its all so predictable, a SAGE leak here, a Neil Ferguson interview there, a SPI-M predicting maasive numbers.
"No Prime Minister could listen to this advise and these numbers and not act. I say with a very heavy heart that we have no choice. But our fantastic booster plans will save the day I can promise you and that by say Easter we will be living a normal life again" etc etc etc.
What day will he do the deed?
Parliament rises on Tuesday... What do you think?
The trouble is that we're going to bobble on with steady case rates for a week or two because Omicron is submarined under the Delta wave. And you will spend another week saying, nothing to see here. By the time Omicron surfaces in the stats it will be very late to do anything.
The unvaccinated need protecting, and society needs protecting from the unvaccinated until the worst case risk has passed.
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
You are probably right. But that is not really enough for me to commit any money to it. The rewards may be greater backing a horse this far out but the risks are also far greater.
It is very difficult coming to a view on this. As long as BJ is seen as an election winner then he should be safe. Next Thursday might change that though I believe the current betting odds very much overstate LD chances. At GE2019 they were 52.7% behind the Tories so it will take a 26.4% CON-LD swing
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Scottish Tory MPs though can get Labour and LD Unionist tactical votes v the SNP, while their counterparts south of the border have no chance of getting any tactical votes except from maybe RefUK voters
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
It has happened before, albeit the last time was 1955
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
Mass full frontal lobotomy would be the precondition.
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
You are probably right. But that is not really enough for me to commit any money to it. The rewards may be greater backing a horse this far out but the risks are also far greater.
You can back me, I am a Horse
The lady had a donkey that everyone admired, It was temporarily lazy, It was permanently tired, A leg on every corner, A balance in its head And a tail to let you know where it wanted to be fed.
FPT it’s a very slippery slope when you start judging people for needing the NHS. When does it end?
@Leon guzzles booze like nobody’s business. That’s a positive act that is likely to be an NHS resource drain in the future. Driving a car at 120mph is also a positive act. Refusing a vaccine is an omission.
It feels profoundly wrong to force people to put something into their own body.
I say this as someone who has had an operation cancelled 3 times already due to NHS pressures. 4th attempt is currently scheduled for Monday.
Except you're talking about compulsion in a situation of dire national emergency as if it were a totally novel and unprecedented moral outrage. It isn't.
Not so very long ago, millions of our forebears were conscripted to fight in wars. When society was faced with an existential threat, it demanded, amongst other things, that young people fight in battles and get blown up, shot through the head or drown in icy cold seas. And if you were called up then, unless you had a very good excuse (e.g. a reserved occupation or being medically unfit) then you bloody well went. The small minority of hardcore pacifists who refused to do service of any kind were complete social pariahs who ended up imprisoned.
Fast forward a few decades and now it's considered unforgivable to ask people to have a scratch on the arm every three or six months so as to try and avoid the entire bloody country ending up under house arrest for months on end, with the education of the nation's children wrecked, otherwise viable businesses driven to the wall en masse, and the state hurtling every closer to the cliff edge of bankruptcy into the bargain.
And if the cost of your repeated cancelled operations was that you ended up dead, I doubt your surviving relatives would feel so sanguine about this problem.
I still profoundly disagree. I think people are panicking and trying to find someone, anyone, to ‘blame’ and in doing so are retreating to a level of authoritarianism to impose this panic on others.
The country does not need to be under house arrest. We’re very highly vaccinated. Thats good. The odd person who isn’t isnt going to make a difference.
But of course keep blaming others
People are scared. Some of the virus. Others of another lockdown. Yet others of societal disorder if there is another lockdown. Of the effect on their mental health. On their physical health. On their personal finances. On their kids' education and future. The common factor is fear as a result of the uncertainty and lack of control. After two years of it. And six months when many have thought it over, it is too much to process. Hence panic. And the febrile atmosphere on here and elsewhere. Doesn't help that it has sunk in with most that our leader isn't up to it.
I've got to say, I'm feeling pretty level right now. But perhaps it's because I was never fooled into thinking it was over. I do understand the concerns, though. Just not feeling scared like I was in March 2020.
+1
Has Snowflake Sean awoken from his drunken slumber yet?
This is tittle tattle. It is the lying about the party that is causing the real problems not the party itself. Both from cabinet ministers who are expected to go on TV several times a year and say black is white with a straight face, and the audience who are finally fed up with being taken for fools.
Whether someone working had a beer after work during lockdown is not a big deal.
Yes, the focus is wrong. Same thing happened on Paterson. The scandal was Johnson's behaviour but we ended up in a tizz about MPs 2nd jobs. Interesting but not the point.
Here, again, the scandal is 100% Johnson and his relentless lying. It isn't even slightly about (eg) Allegra Stratton. She wasn't at the party, and was laughing in embarrassment at being put on the spot in that rehearsal press conference. This is then presented as "laughing at the public", Johnson says he was "sickened by it" - oh look, a lie - and she resigns. No fan of hers but what a nonsense.
Still, despite the blind alleys and distractions, Johnson is taking a hit so it does look like the public are getting the essential message.
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
You are probably right. But that is not really enough for me to commit any money to it. The rewards may be greater backing a horse this far out but the risks are also far greater.
You can back me, I am a Horse
The lady had a donkey that everyone admired, It was temporarily lazy, It was permanently tired, A leg on every corner, A balance in its head And a tail to let you know where it wanted to be fed.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
It has happened before, albeit the last time was 1955
That’s a myth. For a start, there was no such thing as Conservative candidates in Scotland in the 1950s.
Its all so predictable, a SAGE leak here, a Neil Ferguson interview there, a SPI-M predicting maasive numbers.
"No Prime Minister could listen to this advise and these numbers and not act. I say with a very heavy heart that we have no choice. But our fantastic booster plans will save the day I can promise you and that by say Easter we will be living a normal life again" etc etc etc.
What day will he do the deed?
Parliament rises on Tuesday... What do you think?
The trouble is that we're going to bobble on with steady case rates for a week or two because Omicron is submarined under the Delta wave. And you will spend another week saying, nothing to see here. By the time Omicron surfaces in the stats it will be very late to do anything.
The unvaccinated need protecting, and society needs protecting from the unvaccinated until the worst case risk has passed.
It isn't just the unvaccinated. The data for the not boosted is discouraging with omicron, as I have found to my cost I suspect.
Good post @Quincel. I’m tempted to put some money on the Tories in NS but will wait a day or two in case of more revelations. I like @state_go_away bets on Reform as well.
One extra point I would add re why the LDs might not win NS is anti-LD a backlash amongst voters. As has been said, the LDs have built up the idea they are on course to win. That might p1ss some people off (Tory and Labour) who see it as arrogance
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
You are probably right. But that is not really enough for me to commit any money to it. The rewards may be greater backing a horse this far out but the risks are also far greater.
You can back me, I am a Horse
The lady had a donkey that everyone admired, It was temporarily lazy, It was permanently tired, A leg on every corner, A balance in its head And a tail to let you know where it wanted to be fed.
Neigh!
Are you well David?
Got my brain scan yesterday. Hopeful they will find one. Find out in 2 weeks.
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
You are probably right. But that is not really enough for me to commit any money to it. The rewards may be greater backing a horse this far out but the risks are also far greater.
It is very difficult coming to a view on this. As long as BJ is seen as an election winner then he should be safe. Next Thursday might change that though I believe the current betting odds very much overstate LD chances. At GE2019 they were 52.7% behind the Tories so it will take a 26.4% CON-LD swing
Yep.
I was a bit spooked by Pip’s header, worried it would move the market. Ever since the LD’s went odds on, the cons looked value to me.
So I went in deep last night, over a grand @ 2/1
The thing I worry most about is that someone is sitting on a constituency poll.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Scottish Tory MPs though can get Labour and LD Unionist tactical votes v the SNP, while their counterparts south of the border have no chance of getting any tactical votes except from maybe RefUK voters
Ross is going to find it much harder persuading SLab and SLD supporters to lend the Tories their votes. Johnson is quite literally repulsive.
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
My virulent anti-vaxxer friend is now on day 9 in ICU. He seems to be getting better, so will no doubt convince himself that it was better than getting jabbed.
He and his wife were also rabidly anti-Trump. How they square the circle of being in the same camp as the Republican nutters is beyond me.
Rather than smoking regs, more like those who used to drink and drive. You stood a real chance of being wiped out by some selfish arse who genuinely thought they drove just as well pissed as sober. Thankfully, Darwinism has pretty much seen off the remaining stump of those idiots. As it will Covid. Just don't expect a functioning NHS until it has.
Hello, Mark, sorry to greet you with this but -
People can't be "rabidly" anti-Trump. To use that word for passionate anti-Trumpery is telling me you have still not entirely shrugged off your 'guilty pleasure' regard for him.
Hello from York. Mrs RP has Covid. My debauchery weekend is scrapped, all the money spent is sunk and instead I spend even more money to travel home for 10 days of isolation, nursing and likely the pox myself.
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The unknown factor for Rishi is just who would be in his cabinet as that would indicate his direction of travel
Presumably Truss would be Chancellor. Hard to see a role for Patel. I suspect he’d call an end to the Tory Brexit wars. Elevate a Tugenhardt, bring back Greg Clark and Hunt types. Some new blood. Leave Javid where he is for continuity on such an important brief. Switch out JRM and find a role for a Steve Baker.
I was with you all the way until just before "find a role for Steve Baker".
Ending the war doesn’t mean filling Cabinet only with Remainers. And Baker is going to be important in the party in managing the shift to covid endemic policy.
I wasn't rely thinking about Leavers or Remainers. I was merely considering the sensible and the congenitally moronic. Steve seems to dovetail nicely into the latter category.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Scottish Tory MPs though can get Labour and LD Unionist tactical votes v the SNP, while their counterparts south of the border have no chance of getting any tactical votes except from maybe RefUK voters
Ross is going to find it much harder persuading SLab and SLD supporters to lend the Tories their votes. Johnson is quite literally repulsive.
Yet even with Boris Tory leader and PM, the Scottish Conservatives held Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, Eastwood, Dumfries and Galloway etc at Holyrood in May thanks to SLab and SLD tactical votes.
In 2019 Johnson also won 6 Scottish Tory MPs which was still the 2nd best Tory performance in Scotland since 1992 after May in 2017
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
It has happened before, albeit the last time was 1955
That’s a myth. For a start, there was no such thing as Conservative candidates in Scotland in the 1950s.
Unionist MPs voted with the Conservatives then so it still counts
Hello from York. Mrs RP has Covid. My debauchery weekend is scrapped, all the money spent is sunk and instead I spend even more money to travel home for 10 days of isolation, nursing and likely the pox myself.
Yay
Really sorry to hear that RP. We are heading to Newcastle this coming weekend and I must confess I am apprehensive. That no refund, lower price hotel booking is not looking nearly as smart now as it seemed when I booked it.
Hello from York. Mrs RP has Covid. My debauchery weekend is scrapped, all the money spent is sunk and instead I spend even more money to travel home for 10 days of isolation, nursing and likely the pox myself.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
Mass full frontal lobotomy would be the precondition.
I dunno, a successful cannibalism of their English vote by a resurgent Faragist party, plus a little increase in tactical Tories north of the wall... it just within the realms of the possible. It would be madly fascinating.
Aha. I kind of misread your post. Now I see what you mean.
It would require the Scons to get up to the mid 30s at the same time as Tory support nosedived in their southern English heartland. I just can’t envisage it. History tells us that SCon support has a ceiling below 30, and I’m struggling to see a scenario where they are super popular in Scotland while simultaneously personae non grata in the Home Counties.
"Government scientists warn Omicron will lead to more hospitalisations than last winter and kill up to 75,000 people over the next five months unless tougher restrictions are brought in such as banning pubs from serving inside"
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 20.9 million infections 175,000 hospital admissions 24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April: 34.2 million infections 492,000 hospital admissions 74,900 deaths”
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
You are probably right. But that is not really enough for me to commit any money to it. The rewards may be greater backing a horse this far out but the risks are also far greater.
You can back me, I am a Horse
The lady had a donkey that everyone admired, It was temporarily lazy, It was permanently tired, A leg on every corner, A balance in its head And a tail to let you know where it wanted to be fed.
Neigh!
Are you well David?
Got my brain scan yesterday. Hopeful they will find one. Find out in 2 weeks.
Trouble is that it kind of relies upon Johnson still being in charge at the next election. I am not saying Starmer couldn't win against anyone else but it makes it far less likely. For all that I have time for Starmer, right now Labour's biggest asset is the man sat inside No.10.
I think it is highly likely Johnson leads them into the next election
You are probably right. But that is not really enough for me to commit any money to it. The rewards may be greater backing a horse this far out but the risks are also far greater.
You can back me, I am a Horse
The lady had a donkey that everyone admired, It was temporarily lazy, It was permanently tired, A leg on every corner, A balance in its head And a tail to let you know where it wanted to be fed.
Neigh!
Are you well David?
Got my brain scan yesterday. Hopeful they will find one. Find out in 2 weeks.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Doesn't look particularly robust even in "Rest of South"
The Midlands is becoming the Tory heartlands. Given I'd expect a sizeable Lab lead in Wales, they must be in front there. Still open to a convincing explanation as to why.
Certainly Wales is more red than it has been for years. I think the Wales Government came of age during the pandemic, and certainly Drakeford, at the time of the election, was getting a response from the public that I had never seen before with any politician. I get to meet a lot of people from the Black country during the summer, they invade mid and west Wales. There was certainly a Boris love in from them, which was not apparent in Wales. Brexit Corbyn, coronavirus. Take your pick.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
Doesn't look particularly robust even in "Rest of South"
The Midlands is becoming the Tory heartlands. Given I'd expect a sizeable Lab lead in Wales, they must be in front there. Still open to a convincing explanation as to why.
Certainly Wales is more red than it has been for years. I think the Wales Government came of age during the pandemic, and certainly Drakeford, at the time of the election, was getting a response from the public that I had never seen before with any politician. I get to meet a lot of people from the Black country during the summer, they invade mid and west Wales. There was certainly a Boris love in from them, which was not apparent in Wales. Brexit Corbyn, coronavirus. Take your pick.
Welsh Labour has seemingly managed to create a pro-Wales party whilst also being pro the Union. Very interesting case study
Hunting the unvaxxed is the new national sport - hasn't Ellwood heard?
Ridiculous comment. No one's 'hunting' them - just preventing their stupidity impacting the sensible. A bit like the smoking regs.
Well, I exaggerate for comic effect.
There is no doubt that this group are being relegated to second-class citizens. Vax Passports will be popular despite vaccination always being set-up as a personal choice. An example of the tyranny of the majority if you like. It is disingenuous because our route out of this - vaccine discovery - was never predicated on everyone agreeing to take the vaccine (which was never going to happen and we knew it).
I think someone deciding not to get vaccinated is making a big mistake and will try to persuade them otherwise by looking at all evidence and the pros and cons. But I truly dislike current mass sentiment over this issue, it's a nasty atmosphere.
Apols for my over-reaction - took you too seriously.
I'd be interested to know if/where you think my smoking analogy falls down?
I think it's a pretty good analogy. I disagree that smoking should be banned wholesale but agree that it is acceptable that smoking shouldn't be allowed in a pub for example and, instead, an outside area can accommodate them.
But if I'm totally honest with you I was opposed to the smoking ban in the first place. Just as when I was young I was opposed to mandatory seat belts. I've come on-board on both these issues given time, though I still don't think that the odd fag in a pub or trip to the shops unbelted should be policed draconianly.
I am regularly grateful that it is.
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
As I matured(sic) I hated smoking in pubs to the extent I rarely went in one. I was eternally grateful when the smoking ban came in. My wife and I are now very regular pub meal goers. Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
I'd support a total legal ban on cigarettes. It's the only way to get me off the things and I bet that applies to many other addicts.
I assume then you are against legalisation of cannabis?
The assumption is that if Johnson goes, the Tories will reinvent themselves and win another election.
But what if this is just the end of their period in Government, just as Labour’s came to an end and the Tories’ before?
My view Horse, FWIW is (say) Sunak becomes leader he takes a big lead initially. The economy faltering will then start to bite at people's ankles and in a very personal way and the lead will erode. He will be in he firing line for a failing economy too
Starmer has also put himself about, and as a result will scare fewer horses than he did a few weeks ago.
After Johnson's exit I believe politics will calm down a little. Will the RedWall take to Sunak and say, Truss in the same way they do Johnson? I'm not so sure
The previously unfancied Hunt, I believe could cause Labour most problems and for longer. I'm not a fan, but he doesn't scare me like Johnson does.
The unknown factor for Rishi is just who would be in his cabinet as that would indicate his direction of travel
Looks like another unknown for Sunak is will he be brought into Partygate.
The Guardian reports of a non-party post Autum 2020 lap of honour victory celebration with beer and wine. But of course it remains to be seen if that constitutes a lockdown party or a late working lunch. I suspect the latter
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
It has happened before, albeit the last time was 1955
That’s a myth. For a start, there was no such thing as Conservative candidates in Scotland in the 1950s.
Unionist MPs voted with the Conservatives then so it still counts
Even if you retrospectively rebrand Unionist candidates as Conservative candidates, it is still a myth, because you need to add in all sorts of ragtag candidates to get to the nonsense 55% figure. It is a very anal and Anglocentric way of looking at Scottish politics. So right up your street.
These Red Wall sub-samples from the latest YouGov spell smelly pants time for Conservative strategists. Looks like their vote is retreating to their traditional heartland: the south of England.
North: Lab 45% Con 32% Midlands/Wales: Lab 37% Con 35% London: Lab 47% Con 24% Rest of South: Con 38% Lab 34% Scotland: SNP 51% Con 26% Lab 13%
So Conservatives actually up in Scotland on 2019 then, even if down in England and still ahead in their heartland of the South.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
Is there a world where the Conservatives get a higher % in Scotland than in the rest of the country? I can't even begin to work out the consequences of that happening but I'm certain it would be hilarious.
Mass full frontal lobotomy would be the precondition.
I dunno, a successful cannibalism of their English vote by a resurgent Faragist party, plus a little increase in tactical Tories north of the wall... it just within the realms of the possible. It would be madly fascinating.
Aha. I kind of misread your post. Now I see what you mean.
It would require the Scons to get up to the mid 30s at the same time as Tory support nosedived in their southern English heartland. I just can’t envisage it. History tells us that SCon support has a ceiling below 30, and I’m struggling to see a scenario where they are super popular in Scotland while simultaneously personae non grata in the Home Counties.
I can: SCUP campaign for indy. Of the nation as well as their own party.
It's a formulatable scenario, but not terribly likely till a tipping point is reached for other reasins (self-preservation).
Its all so predictable, a SAGE leak here, a Neil Ferguson interview there, a SPI-M predicting maasive numbers.
"No Prime Minister could listen to this advise and these numbers and not act. I say with a very heavy heart that we have no choice. But our fantastic booster plans will save the day I can promise you and that by say Easter we will be living a normal life again" etc etc etc.
What day will he do the deed?
Parliament rises on Tuesday... What do you think?
The trouble is that we're going to bobble on with steady case rates for a week or two because Omicron is submarined under the Delta wave. And you will spend another week saying, nothing to see here. By the time Omicron surfaces in the stats it will be very late to do anything.
The unvaccinated need protecting, and society needs protecting from the unvaccinated until the worst case risk has passed.
It isn't just the unvaccinated. The data for the not boosted is discouraging with omicron, as I have found to my cost I suspect.
I don't think the final SP is in for the unboosted and severe disease - they clearly aren't protected against infection, but I expect enough protection.
My thoughts on how to structure a proportionate partial lockdown of the unvaccinated.
- Ban over 40s unvaccinated from all entertainment and leisure venues, close contact services, casual household visits (as host or guest). - Same to apply to unboosted over 70s. - Shielding of appropriate fully vaccinated and couldn't be vaccinated vulnerable, with financial support as needed. - Onus and penalties on the unvaccinated, Vaxport updated for the new rules and enforcement by business encouraged but optional.
Society to remain open with masking as now, no further restriction on the vaccinated at this stage. Essentially, allow a big wave of Omicron, but shield those most likely to end up in hospital.
Comments
I gave up going to pubs in the 90s because I got fed up of coming home with my clothes, hair, and skin stinking, never mind the (probably low but not zero) passive-smoking risks.
A feature of recent Council results has been the monster swings against Cons in some very surprising places in the Home Counties.
Much, much worse than the SW, which has held up relatively well. As as the East.
On 38-34 some unlikely places indeed will fall.
What day will he do the deed?
*Starmer needs to be making inroads with grey voters as much or more than with geographic regions. If the over 65s switch substantially to Labour we are in landslide territory.
I would say 2nd week of January.
What do you think?
He and his wife were also rabidly anti-Trump. How they square the circle of being in the same camp as the Republican nutters is beyond me.
Rather than smoking regs, more like those who used to drink and drive. You stood a real chance of being wiped out by some selfish arse who genuinely thought they drove just as well pissed as sober. Thankfully, Darwinism has pretty much seen off the remaining stump of those idiots. As it will Covid. Just don't expect a functioning NHS until it has.
Trouble is it is hard to do that for every issue.
https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1469646036885020674
And it is an issue of consumer choice too. My Mum will be delighted.
Life goes on. My semi break from PB has already improved my life.
My advice to Francis and Leon: step away from your computer and stop seeking out doom and gloom.
Edit: found it.
Too many people with a Libertarian bent want to focus on the individual 'rights' but pointedly ignore the more important aspect of individual responsibility.
Starmer has rebuilt the 40% coalition that is essentially key to Labour forcing a Hung Parliament. If he can built to 43% he’ll be onto majority territory.
I have never underestimated how good he could be.
The Conservatives can win a narrow majority or most seats without the Northern RedWall they got in 2019 but they do need to win the Midlands/Wales to do so. Fortunately on those numbers the Tories are still doing better in the Midlands/Wales than they are nationally, even if Labour are now narrowly ahead there
But I can read the tea leaves, I need to because I am involved in a new venture that was supposed to be hiring a load of new people in January.
You just need to read the slant all the media are running with, the "running real time" blogs are back, the horror story numbers prominent, etc.
Time to get some time out of Government, reset and go back to being a proud institution once again
Vaxports, which voters do now support, are as far as he will go
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10297923/Women-deserting-Boris-Johnson-Poll-shows-two-thirds-voters-dont-trust-PM.html
Lol
It happens every time.
Edit. As Micky Droy says above.
Other than under Blair, since universal suffrage in 1918 Labour have only won a majority in England in 1945 and 1966
SNP voting intention = irrelevant
What a strange world True Blue Tories inhabitant.
Thank goodness we have a rational government that leads in the interests of the whole country rather than one that thrashes around chasing the latest popular whim in an effort to distract from their own misdemeanours. (!)
The unvaccinated need protecting, and society needs protecting from the unvaccinated until the worst case risk has passed.
It was temporarily lazy,
It was permanently tired,
A leg on every corner,
A balance in its head
And a tail to let you know where it wanted to be fed.
Has Snowflake Sean awoken from his drunken slumber yet?
Here, again, the scandal is 100% Johnson and his relentless lying. It isn't even slightly about (eg) Allegra Stratton. She wasn't at the party, and was laughing in embarrassment at being put on the spot in that rehearsal press conference. This is then presented as "laughing at the public", Johnson says he was "sickened by it" - oh look, a lie - and she resigns. No fan of hers but what a nonsense.
Still, despite the blind alleys and distractions, Johnson is taking a hit so it does look like the public are getting the essential message.
Are you well David?
One extra point I would add re why the LDs might not win NS is anti-LD a backlash amongst voters. As has been said, the LDs have built up the idea they are on course to win. That might p1ss some people off (Tory and Labour) who see it as arrogance
I was a bit spooked by Pip’s header, worried it would move the market. Ever since the LD’s went odds on, the cons looked value to me.
So I went in deep last night, over a grand @ 2/1
The thing I worry most about is that someone is sitting on a constituency poll.
One of those by-election betting risks….
Cannot understand how anyone(and I am an ex smoker) can enjoy someone puffing away next to them.
People can't be "rabidly" anti-Trump. To use that word for passionate anti-Trumpery is telling me you have still not entirely shrugged off your 'guilty pleasure' regard for him.
Yay
In 2019 Johnson also won 6 Scottish Tory MPs which was still the 2nd best Tory performance in Scotland since 1992 after May in 2017
It would require the Scons to get up to the mid 30s at the same time as Tory support nosedived in their southern English heartland. I just can’t envisage it. History tells us that SCon support has a ceiling below 30, and I’m struggling to see a scenario where they are super popular in Scotland while simultaneously personae non grata in the Home Counties.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10299101/Covid-19-UK-come-contact-Omicron-unless-youre-hermit-expert-warns.html
“I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Interestingly it turns out I am bang in the middle of expert predictions:
“In the most optimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has low immune escape and booster jabs are highly effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April:
20.9 million infections
175,000 hospital admissions
24,700 deaths
In the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes Omicron has high immune escape and booster jabs are less effective, the model projects between 1 December and 31 April:
34.2 million infections
492,000 hospital admissions
74,900 deaths”
Sometimes I scare MYSELF
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59621029
SNP and Plaid Cymru votes in England, Labour votes in NI.
Why so long?
Hope all turns out to be well.
I get to meet a lot of people from the Black country during the summer, they invade mid and west Wales. There was certainly a Boris love in from them, which was not apparent in Wales. Brexit Corbyn, coronavirus. Take your pick.
The Guardian reports of a non-party post Autum 2020 lap of honour victory celebration with beer and wine. But of course it remains to be seen if that constitutes a lockdown party or a late working lunch. I suspect the latter
It's a formulatable scenario, but not terribly likely till a tipping point is reached for other reasins (self-preservation).
“He has, not to put too fine a point on it, f***ed it.”
“The trouble is, no one likes him.”
“He’s lost the dressing room.”
“He cannot afford any more missteps.”
“He is treating the British public like his previous relationships.”
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-has-fed-it-tory-mps-say-their-leader-has-lost-the-dressing-room-1347462
My thoughts on how to structure a proportionate partial lockdown of the unvaccinated.
- Ban over 40s unvaccinated from all entertainment and leisure venues, close contact services, casual household visits (as host or guest).
- Same to apply to unboosted over 70s.
- Shielding of appropriate fully vaccinated and couldn't be vaccinated vulnerable, with financial support as needed.
- Onus and penalties on the unvaccinated, Vaxport updated for the new rules and enforcement by business encouraged but optional.
Society to remain open with masking as now, no further restriction on the vaccinated at this stage. Essentially, allow a big wave of Omicron, but shield those most likely to end up in hospital.