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It is still odds-on that BoJo will survive as PM till 2024 or later – politicalbetting.com

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  • Leon said:

    Time-scale for the Wunderpill arrival in Britain:


    "Under deals announced out in October, the UK expects to receive 480,000 doses of molnupiravir later this year, with 250,000 courses of paxlovid due in late January. Paxlovid is a combination of an antiviral drug with ritonavir, a drug usually used to treat HIV/Aids."


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/05/pfizer-covid-pills-highly-effective-at-preventing-deaths-trial-suggests


    They then have to get pumped out to GPs and we need to set up a system whereby people get tested and then get these tablets straight after, if positive. So again it will likely be Spring before we see anything. HMG should be organising this NOW. Likewise governments everywhere

    Once the drug becomes available in quantity, the main issue will be getting the right patients to take it quickly enough. Anti-virals, including if I understand correctly this one, have to be taken early in the infection*, 'early' being within two or three days. That's not very long for the patient to become aware they are infected, decide they need to see the GP, get the appointment and get the drug.

    Presumably there will be an effort to ensure that those most at risk do get treated quickly, but it will be quite hard, I would think.

    * Which is why if you get shingles, don't hang around, fight your way through the GP receptionist to get a prescription straight away.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Leon said:

    Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals

    They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines

    A graphic reminder of the terrible isolation that New Zealand and Australia suffered under their zero Covid policies last year.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClX3graQBxI
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,596
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    It cannot be worse than August/September 1997.
    "She was the People's Queen..."
    Well, yes. What other kind is there?
    The Queen of our hearts?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620

    Family porn man


    I think it's safe to assume that nobody will be pleasuring themselves over that photo.
    Internet Rule Whateveritis applies.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,855
    isam said:

    Quincel said:

    MattW said:

    Quincel said:

    Just huge value on him staying in post. The bar for Tory MPs to turn on a sitting PM with this kind of majority and any poll lead at all is vast.

    Hmmm.

    What's the first likely date for an election? And could he fluff it?

    (When will the boundary commission report, and that be implemented.)
    If Johnson looks like losing an election is he really going to call one early?
    Struck me today that being the incumbent is a bit like winning the toss in cricket. Massive edge in getting to call an election when you fancy it

    The other thing that struck me was Labour’s ‘Make Brexit Work’ would be to align as closely as possible with the EU, most likely inc FOM (Sir Keir’s 100,000 truckers) so it wouldn’t be that much different to 2019, other than them not bothering w a second referendum
    Don't think so on FOM. It's too close to the Referendum and its eventual implementation to go anywhere near that. As hardbitten earthy types like me and you know, ending FOM was the main reason Leave won. Labour can't go back to their heartland (ex) voters as soon as 23 or 24 with an offer of bringing it back. The LDs, maybe, but not Labour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,288
    edited November 2021

    Leon said:

    Time-scale for the Wunderpill arrival in Britain:


    "Under deals announced out in October, the UK expects to receive 480,000 doses of molnupiravir later this year, with 250,000 courses of paxlovid due in late January. Paxlovid is a combination of an antiviral drug with ritonavir, a drug usually used to treat HIV/Aids."


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/05/pfizer-covid-pills-highly-effective-at-preventing-deaths-trial-suggests


    They then have to get pumped out to GPs and we need to set up a system whereby people get tested and then get these tablets straight after, if positive. So again it will likely be Spring before we see anything. HMG should be organising this NOW. Likewise governments everywhere

    Once the drug becomes available in quantity, the main issue will be getting the right patients to take it quickly enough. Anti-virals, including if I understand correctly this one, have to be taken early in the infection*, 'early' being within two or three days. That's not very long for the patient to become aware they are infected, decide they need to see the GP, get the appointment and get the drug.

    Presumably there will be an effort to ensure that those most at risk do get treated quickly, but it will be quite hard, I would think.

    * Which is why if you get shingles, don't hang around, fight your way through the GP receptionist to get a prescription straight away.
    Yes, that's the hard part, it seems to me. Pfizer are claiming their pill is effective if taken in "the first five days" of infection, but that still means we have to be super-proactive

    Britain is good at mass testing, so that is helpful. We now need to hone this so we can focus the testing on the vulnerable - old, fat, sick. And we need a protocol in place so that when these people are tested positive, they are fast tracked to the new pills

    The testing companies need to be hooked up to special dispensaries - Boots? - which can hand out the tablets. Perhaps we can cut out GPs altogether? Speeding things up. Or at least do it all super fast via the Net
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
    Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer

    Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25

    I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
    QTWTAIN.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Lol


    Sam Freedman has a nerve to criticise anyone else for innumeracy, given he claimed he was increasing funding for his precious MATS while in reality he was reducing it.

    Nasty, ignorant, not very bright man.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Leon said:

    Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals

    They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines

    Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals

    They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines

    A graphic reminder of the terrible isolation that New Zealand and Australia suffered under their zero Covid policies last year.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClX3graQBxI
    Looks like about 50,000 of them, having to suffer 80 minutes of quarantine.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,596
    edited November 2021
    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Leon said:

    Time-scale for the Wunderpill arrival in Britain:


    "Under deals announced out in October, the UK expects to receive 480,000 doses of molnupiravir later this year, with 250,000 courses of paxlovid due in late January. Paxlovid is a combination of an antiviral drug with ritonavir, a drug usually used to treat HIV/Aids."


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/05/pfizer-covid-pills-highly-effective-at-preventing-deaths-trial-suggests


    They then have to get pumped out to GPs and we need to set up a system whereby people get tested and then get these tablets straight after, if positive. So again it will likely be Spring before we see anything. HMG should be organising this NOW. Likewise governments everywhere

    Once the drug becomes available in quantity, the main issue will be getting the right patients to take it quickly enough. Anti-virals, including if I understand correctly this one, have to be taken early in the infection*, 'early' being within two or three days. That's not very long for the patient to become aware they are infected, decide they need to see the GP, get the appointment and get the drug.

    Presumably there will be an effort to ensure that those most at risk do get treated quickly, but it will be quite hard, I would think.

    * Which is why if you get shingles, don't hang around, fight your way through the GP receptionist to get a prescription straight away.
    I recall catching the swine flu back in 2009
    or whenever it was, and there was an NHS number I called, described my symptoms and they then authorized me to get a course of tamiflu from my local pharmacy. Presumably something similar could be done with molnupiravir.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,288
    edited November 2021

    Leon said:

    Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals

    They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines

    Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
    Yes, it's not a slam dunk. More rapids to be negotiated, for everyone

    Britain is however an over-tester. We have done 333 million tests, putting us third in the world, behind India and the USA (in absolute totals) and ahead of countries as big as China

    This could now play to our advantage, if we target our massive testing at the vulnerable, then get them to the tablets when they test poz
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    I’ve just returned from Spain, where they had a mask mandate in the middle of summer / warm bit of autumn. That to me seem unwise, as presumably it’s better to munch your exit wave when the weather is good, as masking simply delays it?
    We have a mask mandate in Los Angeles County - it's basically shops, public transport, the communal areas of office building (lifts), plus the ridiculous dance in restaurants when you get up to use the bathroom.

    The US still has very onerous Federal rules on airplanes (where they get very annoyed with you if you remove your mask for more than a few seconds), and in airports.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199

    Leon said:

    Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals

    They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines

    Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
    Three days of symptom onset isn't it? Which would be far easier.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
    Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer

    Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25

    I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
    You need the site inspection by the EMA as well as the dossier review.
    So what's a likely time-scale, in your opinion? How long before these arrive at a GP near you or Kamski?
    Depends how quickly Pfizer file with the EMA but they are not quick. Travel logistics for the site inspection will be tricky as well
    Could you put a figure on it? Sorry to harangue you but you have expertise

    Ten weeks? Twenty?

    The difference could be utterly crucial as cases and deaths begin to rise in Europe
    There's a very curious north-south divide in Europe right now: Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark (which had previously been completely spared) are all seeing soaring cases, while in the South the numbers have barely budged. I wonder how much of this is weather related.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,288
    edited November 2021
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals

    They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines

    Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
    Three days of symptom onset isn't it? Which would be far easier.
    I read "five days", somewhere, which is even better. But there's lots of conflicting info and opinion as this potentially game-changing news impacts

    Certainly Pfizer shares are doing pretty nicely
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    Family porn man


    I think it's safe to assume that nobody will be pleasuring themselves over that photo.
    Rule 34 applies both to this picture, and in response to the earlier question, do people deliberately take photos of women breastfeeding?

    Someone, somewhere, will be pleasuring himself to such sights.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    I’ve just returned from Spain, where they had a mask mandate in the middle of summer / warm bit of autumn. That to me seem unwise, as presumably it’s better to munch your exit wave when the weather is good, as masking simply delays it?
    We have a mask mandate in Los Angeles County - it's basically shops, public transport, the communal areas of office building (lifts), plus the ridiculous dance in restaurants when you get up to use the bathroom.

    The US still has very onerous Federal rules on airplanes (where they get very annoyed with you if you remove your mask for more than a few seconds), and in airports.
    I’ve just come back from Greece where nobody minded too much about masks.

    Nor did anyone on the Ryanair flight back. I mean, you are of course supposed to wear them but nobody is going to make you.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Pro_Rata said:

    MattW said:

    Quincel said:

    Just huge value on him staying in post. The bar for Tory MPs to turn on a sitting PM with this kind of majority and any poll lead at all is vast.

    Hmmm.

    What's the first likely date for an election? And could he fluff it?

    (When will the boundary commission report, and that be implemented.)
    In terms of likely last possible date of the next election, a periodic reminder that the repeal of FTPA would set this as 23rd January 2025 (parliament automatically dissolving on 16/12, 5 years after first sitting, and the election taking place, 25 working days later plus 4 Bank Holidays later). (Can't remember if dissolution counts as day one in this, but I count day 25, including Scottish New Year BHs as Fri 24/1 if not).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election?wprov=sfla1

    For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not expecting the next GE to take place in 2025, it's just a curiosity I'm rather taken by.
    Are you sure?

    I thought all the previous legislation relating to parliament length had been repealed, and furthermore the prerogative power of the Queen to agree (with her ministers) to dissolve parliament. Therefore if you simply remove the FTPA, you end up with no mechanism for dissolving parliament, and no limit on the lengths of parliament.

    This would severely limit future betting opportunities, so I oppose it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,288
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
    Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer

    Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25

    I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
    You need the site inspection by the EMA as well as the dossier review.
    So what's a likely time-scale, in your opinion? How long before these arrive at a GP near you or Kamski?
    Depends how quickly Pfizer file with the EMA but they are not quick. Travel logistics for the site inspection will be tricky as well
    Could you put a figure on it? Sorry to harangue you but you have expertise

    Ten weeks? Twenty?

    The difference could be utterly crucial as cases and deaths begin to rise in Europe
    There's a very curious north-south divide in Europe right now: Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark (which had previously been completely spared) are all seeing soaring cases, while in the South the numbers have barely budged. I wonder how much of this is weather related.

    Surely in part a factor. Also waning immunity? The countries which vaxed quicker are now seeing weaker immunity earlier?

    And also simple levels of prior infection. Italy has had a horrible time, likewise Spain, but that does now mean many of them have already had a dose and are now immune, limiting spread. Meanwhile countries that never got hit - Denmark, as you say - have plenty of potential victims
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,468
    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    Does he? He is the most entertaining speaker of all recent PMs and a lot has happened on his watch not least Brexit and COVID. I think he will do ok.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    Leon said:

    Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals

    They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines

    Melbourne won't get 2021 and 2022 back,
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Family porn man


    I think it's safe to assume that nobody will be pleasuring themselves over that photo.
    You'd be surprised.
  • rpjs said:

    Leon said:

    Time-scale for the Wunderpill arrival in Britain:


    "Under deals announced out in October, the UK expects to receive 480,000 doses of molnupiravir later this year, with 250,000 courses of paxlovid due in late January. Paxlovid is a combination of an antiviral drug with ritonavir, a drug usually used to treat HIV/Aids."


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/05/pfizer-covid-pills-highly-effective-at-preventing-deaths-trial-suggests


    They then have to get pumped out to GPs and we need to set up a system whereby people get tested and then get these tablets straight after, if positive. So again it will likely be Spring before we see anything. HMG should be organising this NOW. Likewise governments everywhere

    Once the drug becomes available in quantity, the main issue will be getting the right patients to take it quickly enough. Anti-virals, including if I understand correctly this one, have to be taken early in the infection*, 'early' being within two or three days. That's not very long for the patient to become aware they are infected, decide they need to see the GP, get the appointment and get the drug.

    Presumably there will be an effort to ensure that those most at risk do get treated quickly, but it will be quite hard, I would think.

    * Which is why if you get shingles, don't hang around, fight your way through the GP receptionist to get a prescription straight away.
    I recall catching the swine flu back in 2009
    or whenever it was, and there was an NHS number I called, described my symptoms and they then authorized me to get a course of tamiflu from my local pharmacy. Presumably something similar could be done with molnupiravir.
    Interesting. Yes, maybe something like that could be done.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,596
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Thanks.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
    Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer

    Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25

    I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
    You need the site inspection by the EMA as well as the dossier review.
    So what's a likely time-scale, in your opinion? How long before these arrive at a GP near you or Kamski?
    Depends how quickly Pfizer file with the EMA but they are not quick. Travel logistics for the site inspection will be tricky as well
    With the US now* being open for travel, I would have thought the site inspection would not be such a big deal any more.

    Hungary, of course, approved the Russian Sputnik vaccine. What ability is there for individual countries to approve Pfizer, or does it all have to go through the EMA?

    * Well, from Monday
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP.
    Except Grand Coalition of course.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    I’ve just returned from Spain, where they had a mask mandate in the middle of summer / warm bit of autumn. That to me seem unwise, as presumably it’s better to munch your exit wave when the weather is good, as masking simply delays it?
    We have a mask mandate in Los Angeles County - it's basically shops, public transport, the communal areas of office building (lifts), plus the ridiculous dance in restaurants when you get up to use the bathroom.

    The US still has very onerous Federal rules on airplanes (where they get very annoyed with you if you remove your mask for more than a few seconds), and in airports.
    I’ve just come back from Greece where nobody minded too much about masks.

    Nor did anyone on the Ryanair flight back. I mean, you are of course supposed to wear them but nobody is going to make you.
    On flights in the US, if you refuse to wear a mask, you will be told to, and if you refuse you will get put on the No Fly List. Compliance is therefore basically 100%.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    Leon said:

    Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals

    They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines

    Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
    The test results are for early use, but do we know the pills are no help even if taken later on?
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    It cannot be worse than August/September 1997.
    Oh, it will be a lot worse than 1997, and the story will run daily for months until the King’s coronation.

    The closest parallel in our lifetimes is probably 9/11.
    1952 to 1953 for me
  • rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    I’ve just returned from Spain, where they had a mask mandate in the middle of summer / warm bit of autumn. That to me seem unwise, as presumably it’s better to munch your exit wave when the weather is good, as masking simply delays it?
    We have a mask mandate in Los Angeles County - it's basically shops, public transport, the communal areas of office building (lifts), plus the ridiculous dance in restaurants when you get up to use the bathroom.

    The US still has very onerous Federal rules on airplanes (where they get very annoyed with you if you remove your mask for more than a few seconds), and in airports.
    I’ve just come back from Greece where nobody minded too much about masks.

    Nor did anyone on the Ryanair flight back. I mean, you are of course supposed to wear them but nobody is going to make you.
    Infections are getting bad in Greece, and rising fast. The death rate is now twice ours (and we're already bad compared with other western European countries):

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1456586903302639620

    So it's not just weather.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited November 2021
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP.
    Except Grand Coalition of course.
    Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,596
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP.
    Except Grand Coalition of course.
    With the loss of Scotland Labour's vote distribution is utterly pathetic these days. The Conservatives, on the other hand are very efficient.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals

    They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines

    Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
    Three days of symptom onset isn't it? Which would be far easier.
    Ah, in which case apologies. I hadn’t understood that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,288

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    I’ve just returned from Spain, where they had a mask mandate in the middle of summer / warm bit of autumn. That to me seem unwise, as presumably it’s better to munch your exit wave when the weather is good, as masking simply delays it?
    We have a mask mandate in Los Angeles County - it's basically shops, public transport, the communal areas of office building (lifts), plus the ridiculous dance in restaurants when you get up to use the bathroom.

    The US still has very onerous Federal rules on airplanes (where they get very annoyed with you if you remove your mask for more than a few seconds), and in airports.
    I’ve just come back from Greece where nobody minded too much about masks.

    Nor did anyone on the Ryanair flight back. I mean, you are of course supposed to wear them but nobody is going to make you.
    Infections are getting bad in Greece, and rising fast. The death rate is now twice ours (and we're already bad compared with other western European countries):

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1456586903302639620

    So it's not just weather.
    It's hard to know what is going on without also knowing the state of lockdowns - if any - in individual countries

    Is there anywhere that tells you this? in one handy graphic?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP.
    Except Grand Coalition of course.
    With the loss of Scotland Labour's vote distribution is utterly pathetic these days. The Conservatives, on the other hand are very efficient.
    On a slight tangent, Labour got 31.1% of the MPs on 32.2% of the vote. So pretty close to exactly its fair share.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405

    Family porn man


    Thankfully we don't get to see what is going on below the waist.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals

    They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines

    Melbourne won't get 2021 and 2022 back,
    (Not) fun fact (apparently): Melbourne has been under lockdown for more days in total than any other major city anywhere in the western world.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,155

    Family porn man


    Thankfully we don't get to see what is going on below the waist.
    Winnie-the-Pooh mode.
  • Leon said:


    It's hard to know what is going on without also knowing the state of lockdowns - if any - in individual countries

    Is there anywhere that tells you this? in one handy graphic?

    Good question. I don't know of any such summary, but there might well be one out there.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
    Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer

    Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25

    I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
    You need the site inspection by the EMA as well as the dossier review.
    So what's a likely time-scale, in your opinion? How long before these arrive at a GP near you or Kamski?
    Depends how quickly Pfizer file with the EMA but they are not quick. Travel logistics for the site inspection will be tricky as well
    Could you put a figure on it? Sorry to harangue you but you have expertise

    Ten weeks? Twenty?

    The difference could be utterly crucial as cases and deaths begin to rise in Europe
    There's a very curious north-south divide in Europe right now: Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark (which had previously been completely spared) are all seeing soaring cases, while in the South the numbers have barely budged. I wonder how much of this is weather related.
    I think the long period of good late summer/early autumn weather here in Germany played a big part in keeping numbers relatively low up until recently. But there's also:

    Vaccination rates in Portugal and Spain and Italy are higher than in Germany. I blame the strong German tradition of "alternative" medicine.

    Regulations are stricter in some places (definitely in Italy), and seem to be much more strictly enforced in both Italy and Spain. Enforcement of the few rules (mainly 3g rules) is very lax in my experience round here. It's the freedom-loving Germans again!

    Numbers with immunity from prior infection are probably also quite a bit lower.


    What happened to that guy with the immunological dark matter theory?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944
    edited November 2021
    'Russian diplomat', suspected spy, found dead in Berlin after apparent fall from embassy complex
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/05/russian-diplomat-suspected-spy-found-dead-berlin-apparent-fall/ (£££)

    The Telegraph lists a further half-dozen similarly mysterious deaths of Russian diplomats in recent years.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited November 2021
    Scott_xP said:
    That streak of trolling, Trumpian arrogance seems apparently to continue. Meanwhile, I expect more bad polls for the Tories to be coming over the weekend or early next week, if there are any due.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Alistair said:

    Why you should never react to preliminary US economic data:

    https://twitter.com/rortybomb/status/1456603806016413700
    https://twitter.com/BharatRamamurti/status/1456615646289072131

    Back in August people on here were proclaiming the end of the American economy because of weak new job numbers. The numbers have now been revised and the figure is double the initial report making it a very strong month. September is shaping up to have the same level of revision as well.

    There are insane numbers of "situations vacant" cards in windows here. My local Starbucks closes at 2pm because of staff shortages, my local Mexican is temporarily shut because of lack of staff, Cafe Luxxe is offering $20/hour for trainee baristas, with the promise of getting up to $30/hour including tips.

    A disused gas station on Santa Monica Blvd has turned into a job fair, with employers and but no candidates.

    And there are basically no Ubers. It simply doesn't pay enough to make people want to driver others around.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited November 2021
    Three Scottish wickets in three balls by Shami, but sadly doesn’t count as a hat-trick.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    I’ve just returned from Spain, where they had a mask mandate in the middle of summer / warm bit of autumn. That to me seem unwise, as presumably it’s better to munch your exit wave when the weather is good, as masking simply delays it?
    We have a mask mandate in Los Angeles County - it's basically shops, public transport, the communal areas of office building (lifts), plus the ridiculous dance in restaurants when you get up to use the bathroom.

    The US still has very onerous Federal rules on airplanes (where they get very annoyed with you if you remove your mask for more than a few seconds), and in airports.
    I’ve just come back from Greece where nobody minded too much about masks.

    Nor did anyone on the Ryanair flight back. I mean, you are of course supposed to wear them but nobody is going to make you.
    On flights in the US, if you refuse to wear a mask, you will be told to, and if you refuse you will get put on the No Fly List. Compliance is therefore basically 100%.
    The USA land of the free, provided you don't upset someone enough to make a list.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620

    Leon said:


    It's hard to know what is going on without also knowing the state of lockdowns - if any - in individual countries

    Is there anywhere that tells you this? in one handy graphic?

    Good question. I don't know of any such summary, but there might well be one out there.
    Bloomberg Resilience Index

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,099
    Pro_Rata said:

    MattW said:

    Quincel said:

    Just huge value on him staying in post. The bar for Tory MPs to turn on a sitting PM with this kind of majority and any poll lead at all is vast.

    Hmmm.

    What's the first likely date for an election? And could he fluff it?

    (When will the boundary commission report, and that be implemented.)
    In terms of likely last possible date of the next election, a periodic reminder that the repeal of FTPA would set this as 23rd January 2025 (parliament automatically dissolving on 16/12, 5 years after first sitting, and the election taking place, 25 working days later plus 4 Bank Holidays later). (Can't remember if dissolution counts as day one in this, but I count day 25, including Scottish New Year BHs as Fri 24/1 if not).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election?wprov=sfla1

    For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not expecting the next GE to take place in 2025, it's just a curiosity I'm rather taken by.
    Thankfully un Major-like.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,288
    edited November 2021

    Leon said:


    It's hard to know what is going on without also knowing the state of lockdowns - if any - in individual countries

    Is there anywhere that tells you this? in one handy graphic?

    Good question. I don't know of any such summary, but there might well be one out there.
    I can't find any such data source, maybe someone knows of one?

    I did find this handy Italian newspaper article, which gives a pretty decent summary of the state of play across Europe

    There don't seem to be any proper lockdowns anywhere, except Romania, which has a 10pm-5am curfew for the next month or so

    Almost all countries seem to be using some kind of vaxport. The UK is a total outlier here

    https://www.iltempo.it/esteri/2021/11/04/news/covid-quarta-ondata-europa-contagi-lockdown-francia-inghilterra-germania-russia-svizzera-romania-29323387/#.YYRWy3RaTT8.twitter
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    'Russian diplomat', suspected spy, found dead in Berlin after apparent fall from embassy complex
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/05/russian-diplomat-suspected-spy-found-dead-berlin-apparent-fall/ (£££)

    The Telegraph lists a further half-dozen similarly mysterious deaths of Russian diplomats in recent years.

    That’s quite the list of Russians, who have all mysteriously fallen from high buildings over the past few years.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals

    They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines

    Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
    The test results are for early use, but do we know the pills are no help even if taken later on?
    Hard to see how they could ethically test for this, other than enrolling everyone as soon as possible but letting people join late if needed for whatever reason. Obvious Pfizer will want to get people early and pump up their headline efficacy number but would be good to confirm this is still worthwhile if treatment starts a week late.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Sandpit said:

    'Russian diplomat', suspected spy, found dead in Berlin after apparent fall from embassy complex
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/05/russian-diplomat-suspected-spy-found-dead-berlin-apparent-fall/ (£££)

    The Telegraph lists a further half-dozen similarly mysterious deaths of Russian diplomats in recent years.

    That’s quite the list of Russians, who have all mysteriously fallen from high buildings over the past few years.
    They were just trying to get a better view of the cathedral spire.
  • Mr. JohnL, does remind me of the first series of Blackadder and the archbishop who died falling backwards and landing on the spire of Norwich cathedral.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,099
    edited November 2021
    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    Family pornography? Is he talking about stepmom porn?

    The campaign to make it illegal to photograph breastfeeding without consent met an obstacle in the Lords when Lord Wolfson of Tredegar argued it could spoil family pornography. The minister said it would be rough on a man who photographed his wife on the beach “for his own sexual gratification” and “unintentionally” included a woman he didn’t know with her breast out suckling. Wolfson’s holiday snaps must be fascinating.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-diary-dean-chases-his-flock-away-w0kb9jdwj

    This is the most batshit insane thing I have ever heard.
    One does wonder if he thinks it's OK to sort of accidentally in the background snap a lady whose mammaries are out purely for the purpose of getting the vitamin D in.

    I had to check which Wolfson Lord he is, and he's the one in the MoJ, of all places. Interesting.

    Presimably we are agreed that "pornography" is a Hansard (Lords' version) typo for "photography", and that this is the Times Diary going all carry on - or imitating that Blair video that @TSE posted, which succeeded in demonstrating that Clue has precisely one joke, in total?
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 488
    edited November 2021

    Leon said:


    It's hard to know what is going on without also knowing the state of lockdowns - if any - in individual countries

    Is there anywhere that tells you this? in one handy graphic?

    Good question. I don't know of any such summary, but there might well be one out there.
    The Our World in Data Stringency Index. Please note that this was the non-profit organisation that Cummings insisted the government grant money to when he heard they were struggling.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,778
    Hattrick for Shami against Scotland. Ouch.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Hmmmm. So. 86 for India to win.

    Do you think they are slight favourites?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,288

    Leon said:


    It's hard to know what is going on without also knowing the state of lockdowns - if any - in individual countries

    Is there anywhere that tells you this? in one handy graphic?

    Good question. I don't know of any such summary, but there might well be one out there.
    Bloomberg Resilience Index

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/
    Paywalled, sadly
  • Made me chuckle....

    I'm Gareth, I'm a bald Welshman standing on land stolen from the Catevallauni by the Romans so Italy owes me reparations, my pronouns are you fat bastard, and I’m here to tell you how to cut and paste into a new Word document.

    https://twitter.com/OldRoberts953/status/1456594563506839559?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    DavidL said:

    Hattrick for Shami against Scotland. Ouch.

    Not a hat trick. The middle wicket was a run out.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals

    They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines

    Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
    The test results are for early use, but do we know the pills are no help even if taken later on?
    Hard to see how they could ethically test for this, other than enrolling everyone as soon as possible but letting people join late if needed for whatever reason. Obvious Pfizer will want to get people early and pump up their headline efficacy number but would be good to confirm this is still worthwhile if treatment starts a week late.
    I think experience with other antivirals suggests that they might be much less help taken later on.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    "When fear leads to tyranny
    Democracy is being quietly redefined
    BY JONATHAN SUMPTION"

    https://unherd.com/2021/11/when-fear-leads-to-tyranny/
  • Leon said:


    It's hard to know what is going on without also knowing the state of lockdowns - if any - in individual countries

    Is there anywhere that tells you this? in one handy graphic?

    Good question. I don't know of any such summary, but there might well be one out there.
    The Our World in Data Stringency Index. Please note that this was the non-profit organisation that Cummings insisted the government grant money to when he heard they were struggling.
    Ta
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    It's hard to know what is going on without also knowing the state of lockdowns - if any - in individual countries

    Is there anywhere that tells you this? in one handy graphic?

    Good question. I don't know of any such summary, but there might well be one out there.
    Bloomberg Resilience Index

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/
    Paywalled, sadly
    Eh? I can read it, and I don’t subscribe.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,155
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    Family pornography? Is he talking about stepmom porn?

    The campaign to make it illegal to photograph breastfeeding without consent met an obstacle in the Lords when Lord Wolfson of Tredegar argued it could spoil family pornography. The minister said it would be rough on a man who photographed his wife on the beach “for his own sexual gratification” and “unintentionally” included a woman he didn’t know with her breast out suckling. Wolfson’s holiday snaps must be fascinating.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-diary-dean-chases-his-flock-away-w0kb9jdwj

    This is the most batshit insane thing I have ever heard.
    One does wonder if he thinks it's OK to sort of accidentally in the background snap a lady whose mammaries are out purely for the purpose of getting the vitamin D in.

    I had to check which Wolfson Lord he is, and he's the one in the MoJ, of all places. Interesting.

    Presimably we are agreed that "pornography" is a Hansard (Lords' version) typo for "photography", and that this is the Times Diary going all carry on - or imitating that Blair video that @TSE posted, which succeeded in demonstrating that Clue has precisely one joke, in total?
    Can't be a typo, unless the "s.g." bit is also a typo, which is improbable to put it mildly. Either that or his idea of family pics is even weirder than it seems.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,288

    Leon said:


    It's hard to know what is going on without also knowing the state of lockdowns - if any - in individual countries

    Is there anywhere that tells you this? in one handy graphic?

    Good question. I don't know of any such summary, but there might well be one out there.
    The Our World in Data Stringency Index. Please note that this was the non-profit organisation that Cummings insisted the government grant money to when he heard they were struggling.
    Highly useful, Thanks!
  • Fucking hell, next he'll admit to not knowing 'Paki' is an offensive term.

    Yorkshire head coach Andrew Gale is being investigated by bosses over anti-Semitic social media messages, it has emerged amid the club's deepening racism crisis.

    In a now deleted post on Twitter from November 2010, the then club captain told Paul Dews, who was head of media at Leeds United Football Club at the time, to "Button it y--!"

    Gale told the Jewish News website, which first reported the tweet, that he was “completely unaware” of the offensive nature of the term at the time he sent the message.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/11/05/yorkshire-cricket-racism-storm-chairman-quits-hits-ecb-latest/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,099
    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    It's hard to know what is going on without also knowing the state of lockdowns - if any - in individual countries

    Is there anywhere that tells you this? in one handy graphic?

    Good question. I don't know of any such summary, but there might well be one out there.
    I can't find any such data source, maybe someone knows of one?

    I did find this handy Italian newspaper article, which gives a pretty decent summary of the state of play across Europe

    There don't seem to be any proper lockdowns anywhere, except Romania, which has a 10pm-5am curfew for the next month or so

    Almost all countries seem to be using some kind of vaxport. The UK is a total outlier here

    https://www.iltempo.it/esteri/2021/11/04/news/covid-quarta-ondata-europa-contagi-lockdown-francia-inghilterra-germania-russia-svizzera-romania-29323387/#.YYRWy3RaTT8.twitter
    There's a specific measure at OWID called "Stringency Index".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,288

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    It's hard to know what is going on without also knowing the state of lockdowns - if any - in individual countries

    Is there anywhere that tells you this? in one handy graphic?

    Good question. I don't know of any such summary, but there might well be one out there.
    Bloomberg Resilience Index

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/
    Paywalled, sadly
    Eh? I can read it, and I don’t subscribe.
    Probably an article limit, which I have reached?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP.
    Except Grand Coalition of course.
    Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
    Yeah.
    Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3.
    Lab SNP.
    CON SNP
    LAB CON.

    You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen.
    And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    It's hard to know what is going on without also knowing the state of lockdowns - if any - in individual countries

    Is there anywhere that tells you this? in one handy graphic?

    Good question. I don't know of any such summary, but there might well be one out there.
    Bloomberg Resilience Index

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/
    Paywalled, sadly
    Eh? I can read it, and I don’t subscribe.
    Probably an article limit, which I have reached?
    Ah, perhaps
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,099

    'Russian diplomat', suspected spy, found dead in Berlin after apparent fall from embassy complex
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/05/russian-diplomat-suspected-spy-found-dead-berlin-apparent-fall/ (£££)

    The Telegraph lists a further half-dozen similarly mysterious deaths of Russian diplomats in recent years.

    Defenestrated.

    Any Putin operatives with a sense of history woul have done that in Prague.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited November 2021
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    I’ve just returned from Spain, where they had a mask mandate in the middle of summer / warm bit of autumn. That to me seem unwise, as presumably it’s better to munch your exit wave when the weather is good, as masking simply delays it?
    We have a mask mandate in Los Angeles County - it's basically shops, public transport, the communal areas of office building (lifts), plus the ridiculous dance in restaurants when you get up to use the bathroom.

    The US still has very onerous Federal rules on airplanes (where they get very annoyed with you if you remove your mask for more than a few seconds), and in airports.
    I’ve just come back from Greece where nobody minded too much about masks.

    Nor did anyone on the Ryanair flight back. I mean, you are of course supposed to wear them but nobody is going to make you.
    On flights in the US, if you refuse to wear a mask, you will be told to, and if you refuse you will get put on the No Fly List. Compliance is therefore basically 100%.
    The USA land of the free, provided you don't upset someone enough to make a list.
    Their special freedom seems to mainly consist of the freedom to own a huge arsenal of death weapons.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,855
    edited November 2021
    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    I disagree with the last point. High rollers won't be paying Boris Johnson for a tour d'horizon of big profound geopolitical issues, illuminated by his years in high office, they'll be looking for a good giggle. He'll be doing light relief stuff. That's where the mega bucks are for him. So his value is if anything reducing as he ages. Or at least that's where the balance of risk lies. Very few comics are better at 65 than they were at 45. Tarbuck maybe but I can't think of too many others. So he should leave Downing St asap if making money that way is a priority. But this is all a bit of a red herring imo. The truth is there isn't a cat's chance of him going before the election or, if he wins it, for years afterwards. If only.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Fucking hell, next he'll admit to not knowing 'Paki' is an offensive term.

    Yorkshire head coach Andrew Gale is being investigated by bosses over anti-Semitic social media messages, it has emerged amid the club's deepening racism crisis.

    In a now deleted post on Twitter from November 2010, the then club captain told Paul Dews, who was head of media at Leeds United Football Club at the time, to "Button it y--!"

    Gale told the Jewish News website, which first reported the tweet, that he was “completely unaware” of the offensive nature of the term at the time he sent the message.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/11/05/yorkshire-cricket-racism-storm-chairman-quits-hits-ecb-latest/

    Good grief.

    I am starting to think Yorkshire CCC won't survive this.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,596
    .
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP.
    Except Grand Coalition of course.
    Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
    Yeah.
    Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3.
    Lab SNP.
    CON SNP
    LAB CON.

    You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen.
    And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
    I think we can safety discount option 3.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP.
    Except Grand Coalition of course.
    Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
    Yeah.
    Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3.
    Lab SNP.
    CON SNP
    LAB CON.

    You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen.
    And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
    Labour have been soft on the indyref2 for a while now. A Lab-SNP coaltion doesn't seem that unlikely.
  • I hope soon a Labour lead will appear to lift me up :(
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited November 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    "When fear leads to tyranny
    Democracy is being quietly redefined
    BY JONATHAN SUMPTION"

    https://unherd.com/2021/11/when-fear-leads-to-tyranny/

    Is the same Jonathan Sumption who was denying George Monbiot's point on what those campaigning for the Reform Acts, the Chartists, and the Suffragettes, achieved by non-violent nuisance on the radio a couple of weeks ago, when the topic was extinction rebellion ?

    He writes well at times, but he never seems to be sure whether he's a libertarian or an authoritarian. Whether a cause is known as right or leftwing often seems to be the only reliable predictor. There was a similar contrast to his view on Extinction Rebellion's disruption with his view of everyone's apparent liberty not to wear masks or accept restrictions, under virtually any circumstances, during the pandemic.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,013
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    I'm sure every bit of it tasteful:)
    14 million pics on a single hard drive?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,596
    JBriskin3 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP.
    Except Grand Coalition of course.
    Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
    Yeah.
    Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3.
    Lab SNP.
    CON SNP
    LAB CON.

    You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen.
    And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
    Labour have been soft on the indyref2 for a while now. A Lab-SNP coaltion doesn't seem that unlikely.
    It's Turkeys voting for Xmas. It doesn't work past Scottish Independence for Labour.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    I wonder what the scale up and manufacture of Paxlovid will bring.

    From the bit I know, vaccine developmemt and roll out is more geared to rapid turnaround than the multistep pharmaceutical manufacture of a new active ingredient.

    The methods used to make a little of the active in the lab will be substantially unrelated to those that would be needed at scale, again perhaps moreso than for vaccines. You'd hope some parallel development would have started after early trials. A lot of the challenge may be dependent on dosage. If one batch / campaign will make 10 million pills worth of active that's a different story in terms of availability to market than if one campaign makes 100k pills worth. The former would imply fulfilling a lot of demand from one plant with perhaps less upfront optimisation but on consistent equipment, the latter may imply validation on multiple of the right types of plants, with differing vessels, control systems etc, and multiple FDA manufacturing approvals. If the manufacture is many chemical steps away from existing commercial precursors, there may also need to be deals and development work for intermediates molecules, possibly utilising other manufacturers, and which may be needed in substantially higher quantities than the final product, due to loss of yield along the way.

    If, qualitatively, the vaccine industry faced all this in getting to market (in fact these are pretty standard questions of commercialisation and supply chain), then quantitatively this could be somewhat different. I suspect also, the number of different development horses you had to be ready to cover to get an all green book on manufacturing readiness is far higher and more varied for pharmaceuticals than for vaccines.

    To summarise, how quickly supply can scale up will be at least, if not more, as live a question here as it will for vaccines.
  • ydoethur said:

    Fucking hell, next he'll admit to not knowing 'Paki' is an offensive term.

    Yorkshire head coach Andrew Gale is being investigated by bosses over anti-Semitic social media messages, it has emerged amid the club's deepening racism crisis.

    In a now deleted post on Twitter from November 2010, the then club captain told Paul Dews, who was head of media at Leeds United Football Club at the time, to "Button it y--!"

    Gale told the Jewish News website, which first reported the tweet, that he was “completely unaware” of the offensive nature of the term at the time he sent the message.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/11/05/yorkshire-cricket-racism-storm-chairman-quits-hits-ecb-latest/

    Good grief.

    I am starting to think Yorkshire CCC won't survive this.
    I think they need to appoint me Chief Executive and Executive Chairman of YCCC and I'll fix all the problems.

    A strong Yorkshire means a strong England.
  • I hope soon a Labour lead will appear to lift me up :(

    I think at least parity soon, Horse.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP.
    Except Grand Coalition of course.
    Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
    Yeah.
    Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3.
    Lab SNP.
    CON SNP
    LAB CON.

    You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen.
    And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
    Most of the models have a huge landing zone for a very hung Parliament indeed, especially if the SNP continue to get 50 seats.

    I don’t see how Starmer can survive a election campaign without explicitly saying no deals with the SNP, so if we don’t get a Con majority (or very close) we probably get a second election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,717
    JBriskin3 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP.
    Except Grand Coalition of course.
    Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
    Yeah.
    Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3.
    Lab SNP.
    CON SNP
    LAB CON.

    You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen.
    And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
    Labour have been soft on the indyref2 for a while now. A Lab-SNP coaltion doesn't seem that unlikely.
    Starmer would likely give the SNP indyref2 if he needs their confidence and supply to become PM in a hung parliament.

    Probably with devomax as a carrot to Scots to try and get them to vote No again
  • Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP.
    Except Grand Coalition of course.
    Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
    Yeah.
    Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3.
    Lab SNP.
    CON SNP
    LAB CON.

    You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen.
    And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
    Most of the models have a huge landing zone for a very hung Parliament indeed, especially if the SNP continue to get 50 seats.

    I don’t see how Starmer can survive a election campaign without explicitly saying no deals with the SNP, so if we don’t get a Con majority (or very close) we probably get a second election.
    What Starmer says before election day and what happens after election day are likely to be two different things.

    I do if Lab and an SNP coalition equals a majority of seats then that's what will happen, will the SNP really risk putting the Tories back in power?

    It's all about bums on seats, a 2010 showed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,717
    edited November 2021

    .

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP.
    Except Grand Coalition of course.
    Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
    Yeah.
    Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3.
    Lab SNP.
    CON SNP
    LAB CON.

    You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen.
    And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
    I think we can safety discount option 3.
    I could see a Labour-Conservative Grand Coalition between Starmer and Sunak working, albeit Boris would likely have to go if he had lost his majority.

    Though the Tory right and Labour left would not like it, so it is unlikely it would happen, it would also avoid the need for the SNP.

    It would boost RefUK and the Greens but could be sustainable, look at Germany and the years of CDU/CSU and SPD grand coalition they have had
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    JBriskin3 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP.
    Except Grand Coalition of course.
    Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
    Yeah.
    Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3.
    Lab SNP.
    CON SNP
    LAB CON.

    You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen.
    And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
    Labour have been soft on the indyref2 for a while now. A Lab-SNP coaltion doesn't seem that unlikely.
    It's Turkeys voting for Xmas. It doesn't work past Scottish Independence for Labour.
    We'll see.

    I hope BoJo has pre-prepared his Sec. 30 letter.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Are many people really that bothered about a deal with the SNP?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    ydoethur said:

    Fucking hell, next he'll admit to not knowing 'Paki' is an offensive term.

    Yorkshire head coach Andrew Gale is being investigated by bosses over anti-Semitic social media messages, it has emerged amid the club's deepening racism crisis.

    In a now deleted post on Twitter from November 2010, the then club captain told Paul Dews, who was head of media at Leeds United Football Club at the time, to "Button it y--!"

    Gale told the Jewish News website, which first reported the tweet, that he was “completely unaware” of the offensive nature of the term at the time he sent the message.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/11/05/yorkshire-cricket-racism-storm-chairman-quits-hits-ecb-latest/

    Good grief.

    I am starting to think Yorkshire CCC won't survive this.
    I think they need to appoint me Chief Executive and Executive Chairman of YCCC and I'll fix all the problems.

    A strong Yorkshire means a strong England.
    They need a serious clearout of the top echelons of the club, including the coaching staff, the board and the permanent executive. The whole lot of them need to go, to retain the confidence of the members and sponsors.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    ydoethur said:

    Fucking hell, next he'll admit to not knowing 'Paki' is an offensive term.

    Yorkshire head coach Andrew Gale is being investigated by bosses over anti-Semitic social media messages, it has emerged amid the club's deepening racism crisis.

    In a now deleted post on Twitter from November 2010, the then club captain told Paul Dews, who was head of media at Leeds United Football Club at the time, to "Button it y--!"

    Gale told the Jewish News website, which first reported the tweet, that he was “completely unaware” of the offensive nature of the term at the time he sent the message.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/11/05/yorkshire-cricket-racism-storm-chairman-quits-hits-ecb-latest/

    Good grief.

    I am starting to think Yorkshire CCC won't survive this.
    Even back in the late seventies I was aware that paki and yid were offensive terms.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    HYUFD said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP.
    Except Grand Coalition of course.
    Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
    Yeah.
    Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3.
    Lab SNP.
    CON SNP
    LAB CON.

    You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen.
    And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
    Labour have been soft on the indyref2 for a while now. A Lab-SNP coaltion doesn't seem that unlikely.
    Starmer would likely give the SNP indyref2 if he needs their confidence and supply to become PM in a hung parliament.

    Probably with devomax as a carrot to Scots to try and get them to vote No again
    I agree with this analysis apart from the devomax bit (although you may be right there too)

    Us Yoons know that Tories/Bozo are best for the union.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,596

    I hope soon a Labour lead will appear to lift me up :(

    You should be much cheered by the goings on of yesterday.

    The fiasco may not gain immediate traction (although, I may be surprised) but Johnson removed quite a lot of his Teflon yesterday. Not only did he damage himself but he raised questions about the Conservative brand. If voters start to struggle (one of my customers in Gloucester went bang on Monday morning with the loss of 300 jobs- Complete Utilities- I just lost about a grand) the Three Line Whip nonsense will bite the party hard.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,855
    JBriskin3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
    40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
    Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP.
    Except Grand Coalition of course.
    Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
    Yeah.
    Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3.
    Lab SNP.
    CON SNP
    LAB CON.

    You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen.
    And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
    Labour have been soft on the indyref2 for a while now. A Lab-SNP coaltion doesn't seem that unlikely.
    Starmer would likely give the SNP indyref2 if he needs their confidence and supply to become PM in a hung parliament.

    Probably with devomax as a carrot to Scots to try and get them to vote No again
    I agree with this analysis apart from the devomax bit (although you may be right there too)

    Us Yoons know that Tories/Bozo are best for the union.
    Why don't you want to have the vote, win it, and kill Sindy off good and proper instead of this 'delay delay' approach?
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    Are many people really that bothered about a deal with the SNP?

    True Scots are - because it means whether or not we get a "non-divisive" referendum.
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