Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?
Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!
Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while
That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.
The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
Just huge value on him staying in post. The bar for Tory MPs to turn on a sitting PM with this kind of majority and any poll lead at all is vast.
Hmmm.
What's the first likely date for an election? And could he fluff it?
(When will the boundary commission report, and that be implemented.)
If Johnson looks like losing an election is he really going to call one early?
Struck me today that being the incumbent is a bit like winning the toss in cricket. Massive edge in getting to call an election when you fancy it
The other thing that struck me was Labour’s ‘Make Brexit Work’ would be to align as closely as possible with the EU, most likely inc FOM (Sir Keir’s 100,000 truckers) so it wouldn’t be that much different to 2019, other than them not bothering w a second referendum
Don't think so on FOM. It's too close to the Referendum and its eventual implementation to go anywhere near that. As hardbitten earthy types like me and you know, ending FOM was the main reason Leave won. Labour can't go back to their heartland (ex) voters as soon as 23 or 24 with an offer of bringing it back. The LDs, maybe, but not Labour.
"Under deals announced out in October, the UK expects to receive 480,000 doses of molnupiravir later this year, with 250,000 courses of paxlovid due in late January. Paxlovid is a combination of an antiviral drug with ritonavir, a drug usually used to treat HIV/Aids."
They then have to get pumped out to GPs and we need to set up a system whereby people get tested and then get these tablets straight after, if positive. So again it will likely be Spring before we see anything. HMG should be organising this NOW. Likewise governments everywhere
Once the drug becomes available in quantity, the main issue will be getting the right patients to take it quickly enough. Anti-virals, including if I understand correctly this one, have to be taken early in the infection*, 'early' being within two or three days. That's not very long for the patient to become aware they are infected, decide they need to see the GP, get the appointment and get the drug.
Presumably there will be an effort to ensure that those most at risk do get treated quickly, but it will be quite hard, I would think.
* Which is why if you get shingles, don't hang around, fight your way through the GP receptionist to get a prescription straight away.
Yes, that's the hard part, it seems to me. Pfizer are claiming their pill is effective if taken in "the first five days" of infection, but that still means we have to be super-proactive
Britain is good at mass testing, so that is helpful. We now need to hone this so we can focus the testing on the vulnerable - old, fat, sick. And we need a protocol in place so that when these people are tested positive, they are fast tracked to the new pills
The testing companies need to be hooked up to special dispensaries - Boots? - which can hand out the tablets. Perhaps we can cut out GPs altogether? Speeding things up. Or at least do it all super fast via the Net
You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?
It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals
The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer
Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25
I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
Sam Freedman has a nerve to criticise anyone else for innumeracy, given he claimed he was increasing funding for his precious MATS while in reality he was reducing it.
Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals
They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines
Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
'Few new Tories have spoken out publicly. But one, Aaron Bell, the MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, said in the Commons debate on the issue this week that he would vote against the government-backed amendment, claiming it “makes it looks like we’re moving the goalposts” by changing the rules specially for Paterson.'
I wonder where he got the goalposts bit from ...?
He is still reading the site, according to his profile.
Well, if he is reading this, let me for one say he made the right move. Well done, Aaron Bell MP.
Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals
They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines
A graphic reminder of the terrible isolation that New Zealand and Australia suffered under their zero Covid policies last year.
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
"Under deals announced out in October, the UK expects to receive 480,000 doses of molnupiravir later this year, with 250,000 courses of paxlovid due in late January. Paxlovid is a combination of an antiviral drug with ritonavir, a drug usually used to treat HIV/Aids."
They then have to get pumped out to GPs and we need to set up a system whereby people get tested and then get these tablets straight after, if positive. So again it will likely be Spring before we see anything. HMG should be organising this NOW. Likewise governments everywhere
Once the drug becomes available in quantity, the main issue will be getting the right patients to take it quickly enough. Anti-virals, including if I understand correctly this one, have to be taken early in the infection*, 'early' being within two or three days. That's not very long for the patient to become aware they are infected, decide they need to see the GP, get the appointment and get the drug.
Presumably there will be an effort to ensure that those most at risk do get treated quickly, but it will be quite hard, I would think.
* Which is why if you get shingles, don't hang around, fight your way through the GP receptionist to get a prescription straight away.
I recall catching the swine flu back in 2009 or whenever it was, and there was an NHS number I called, described my symptoms and they then authorized me to get a course of tamiflu from my local pharmacy. Presumably something similar could be done with molnupiravir.
Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals
They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines
Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
Yes, it's not a slam dunk. More rapids to be negotiated, for everyone
Britain is however an over-tester. We have done 333 million tests, putting us third in the world, behind India and the USA (in absolute totals) and ahead of countries as big as China
This could now play to our advantage, if we target our massive testing at the vulnerable, then get them to the tablets when they test poz
You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?
It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals
I’ve just returned from Spain, where they had a mask mandate in the middle of summer / warm bit of autumn. That to me seem unwise, as presumably it’s better to munch your exit wave when the weather is good, as masking simply delays it?
We have a mask mandate in Los Angeles County - it's basically shops, public transport, the communal areas of office building (lifts), plus the ridiculous dance in restaurants when you get up to use the bathroom.
The US still has very onerous Federal rules on airplanes (where they get very annoyed with you if you remove your mask for more than a few seconds), and in airports.
Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals
They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines
Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
Three days of symptom onset isn't it? Which would be far easier.
You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?
It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals
The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer
Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25
I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
You need the site inspection by the EMA as well as the dossier review.
So what's a likely time-scale, in your opinion? How long before these arrive at a GP near you or Kamski?
Depends how quickly Pfizer file with the EMA but they are not quick. Travel logistics for the site inspection will be tricky as well
Could you put a figure on it? Sorry to harangue you but you have expertise
Ten weeks? Twenty?
The difference could be utterly crucial as cases and deaths begin to rise in Europe
There's a very curious north-south divide in Europe right now: Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark (which had previously been completely spared) are all seeing soaring cases, while in the South the numbers have barely budged. I wonder how much of this is weather related.
Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals
They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines
Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
Three days of symptom onset isn't it? Which would be far easier.
I read "five days", somewhere, which is even better. But there's lots of conflicting info and opinion as this potentially game-changing news impacts
You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?
It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals
I’ve just returned from Spain, where they had a mask mandate in the middle of summer / warm bit of autumn. That to me seem unwise, as presumably it’s better to munch your exit wave when the weather is good, as masking simply delays it?
We have a mask mandate in Los Angeles County - it's basically shops, public transport, the communal areas of office building (lifts), plus the ridiculous dance in restaurants when you get up to use the bathroom.
The US still has very onerous Federal rules on airplanes (where they get very annoyed with you if you remove your mask for more than a few seconds), and in airports.
I’ve just come back from Greece where nobody minded too much about masks.
Nor did anyone on the Ryanair flight back. I mean, you are of course supposed to wear them but nobody is going to make you.
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Just huge value on him staying in post. The bar for Tory MPs to turn on a sitting PM with this kind of majority and any poll lead at all is vast.
Hmmm.
What's the first likely date for an election? And could he fluff it?
(When will the boundary commission report, and that be implemented.)
In terms of likely last possible date of the next election, a periodic reminder that the repeal of FTPA would set this as 23rd January 2025 (parliament automatically dissolving on 16/12, 5 years after first sitting, and the election taking place, 25 working days later plus 4 Bank Holidays later). (Can't remember if dissolution counts as day one in this, but I count day 25, including Scottish New Year BHs as Fri 24/1 if not).
For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not expecting the next GE to take place in 2025, it's just a curiosity I'm rather taken by.
Are you sure?
I thought all the previous legislation relating to parliament length had been repealed, and furthermore the prerogative power of the Queen to agree (with her ministers) to dissolve parliament. Therefore if you simply remove the FTPA, you end up with no mechanism for dissolving parliament, and no limit on the lengths of parliament.
This would severely limit future betting opportunities, so I oppose it.
You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?
It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals
The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer
Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25
I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
You need the site inspection by the EMA as well as the dossier review.
So what's a likely time-scale, in your opinion? How long before these arrive at a GP near you or Kamski?
Depends how quickly Pfizer file with the EMA but they are not quick. Travel logistics for the site inspection will be tricky as well
Could you put a figure on it? Sorry to harangue you but you have expertise
Ten weeks? Twenty?
The difference could be utterly crucial as cases and deaths begin to rise in Europe
There's a very curious north-south divide in Europe right now: Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark (which had previously been completely spared) are all seeing soaring cases, while in the South the numbers have barely budged. I wonder how much of this is weather related.
Surely in part a factor. Also waning immunity? The countries which vaxed quicker are now seeing weaker immunity earlier?
And also simple levels of prior infection. Italy has had a horrible time, likewise Spain, but that does now mean many of them have already had a dose and are now immune, limiting spread. Meanwhile countries that never got hit - Denmark, as you say - have plenty of potential victims
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
Does he? He is the most entertaining speaker of all recent PMs and a lot has happened on his watch not least Brexit and COVID. I think he will do ok.
Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals
They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines
"Under deals announced out in October, the UK expects to receive 480,000 doses of molnupiravir later this year, with 250,000 courses of paxlovid due in late January. Paxlovid is a combination of an antiviral drug with ritonavir, a drug usually used to treat HIV/Aids."
They then have to get pumped out to GPs and we need to set up a system whereby people get tested and then get these tablets straight after, if positive. So again it will likely be Spring before we see anything. HMG should be organising this NOW. Likewise governments everywhere
Once the drug becomes available in quantity, the main issue will be getting the right patients to take it quickly enough. Anti-virals, including if I understand correctly this one, have to be taken early in the infection*, 'early' being within two or three days. That's not very long for the patient to become aware they are infected, decide they need to see the GP, get the appointment and get the drug.
Presumably there will be an effort to ensure that those most at risk do get treated quickly, but it will be quite hard, I would think.
* Which is why if you get shingles, don't hang around, fight your way through the GP receptionist to get a prescription straight away.
I recall catching the swine flu back in 2009 or whenever it was, and there was an NHS number I called, described my symptoms and they then authorized me to get a course of tamiflu from my local pharmacy. Presumably something similar could be done with molnupiravir.
Interesting. Yes, maybe something like that could be done.
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?
It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals
The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer
Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25
I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
You need the site inspection by the EMA as well as the dossier review.
So what's a likely time-scale, in your opinion? How long before these arrive at a GP near you or Kamski?
Depends how quickly Pfizer file with the EMA but they are not quick. Travel logistics for the site inspection will be tricky as well
With the US now* being open for travel, I would have thought the site inspection would not be such a big deal any more.
Hungary, of course, approved the Russian Sputnik vaccine. What ability is there for individual countries to approve Pfizer, or does it all have to go through the EMA?
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP. Except Grand Coalition of course.
You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?
It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals
I’ve just returned from Spain, where they had a mask mandate in the middle of summer / warm bit of autumn. That to me seem unwise, as presumably it’s better to munch your exit wave when the weather is good, as masking simply delays it?
We have a mask mandate in Los Angeles County - it's basically shops, public transport, the communal areas of office building (lifts), plus the ridiculous dance in restaurants when you get up to use the bathroom.
The US still has very onerous Federal rules on airplanes (where they get very annoyed with you if you remove your mask for more than a few seconds), and in airports.
I’ve just come back from Greece where nobody minded too much about masks.
Nor did anyone on the Ryanair flight back. I mean, you are of course supposed to wear them but nobody is going to make you.
On flights in the US, if you refuse to wear a mask, you will be told to, and if you refuse you will get put on the No Fly List. Compliance is therefore basically 100%.
Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals
They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines
Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
The test results are for early use, but do we know the pills are no help even if taken later on?
Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?
Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!
Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while
That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.
The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
It cannot be worse than August/September 1997.
Oh, it will be a lot worse than 1997, and the story will run daily for months until the King’s coronation.
The closest parallel in our lifetimes is probably 9/11.
You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?
It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals
I’ve just returned from Spain, where they had a mask mandate in the middle of summer / warm bit of autumn. That to me seem unwise, as presumably it’s better to munch your exit wave when the weather is good, as masking simply delays it?
We have a mask mandate in Los Angeles County - it's basically shops, public transport, the communal areas of office building (lifts), plus the ridiculous dance in restaurants when you get up to use the bathroom.
The US still has very onerous Federal rules on airplanes (where they get very annoyed with you if you remove your mask for more than a few seconds), and in airports.
I’ve just come back from Greece where nobody minded too much about masks.
Nor did anyone on the Ryanair flight back. I mean, you are of course supposed to wear them but nobody is going to make you.
Infections are getting bad in Greece, and rising fast. The death rate is now twice ours (and we're already bad compared with other western European countries):
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP. Except Grand Coalition of course.
Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP. Except Grand Coalition of course.
With the loss of Scotland Labour's vote distribution is utterly pathetic these days. The Conservatives, on the other hand are very efficient.
Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals
They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines
Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
Three days of symptom onset isn't it? Which would be far easier.
Ah, in which case apologies. I hadn’t understood that.
You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?
It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals
I’ve just returned from Spain, where they had a mask mandate in the middle of summer / warm bit of autumn. That to me seem unwise, as presumably it’s better to munch your exit wave when the weather is good, as masking simply delays it?
We have a mask mandate in Los Angeles County - it's basically shops, public transport, the communal areas of office building (lifts), plus the ridiculous dance in restaurants when you get up to use the bathroom.
The US still has very onerous Federal rules on airplanes (where they get very annoyed with you if you remove your mask for more than a few seconds), and in airports.
I’ve just come back from Greece where nobody minded too much about masks.
Nor did anyone on the Ryanair flight back. I mean, you are of course supposed to wear them but nobody is going to make you.
Infections are getting bad in Greece, and rising fast. The death rate is now twice ours (and we're already bad compared with other western European countries):
Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals
They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines
Melbourne won't get 2021 and 2022 back,
(Not) fun fact (apparently): Melbourne has been under lockdown for more days in total than any other major city anywhere in the western world.
You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?
It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals
The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer
Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25
I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
You need the site inspection by the EMA as well as the dossier review.
So what's a likely time-scale, in your opinion? How long before these arrive at a GP near you or Kamski?
Depends how quickly Pfizer file with the EMA but they are not quick. Travel logistics for the site inspection will be tricky as well
Could you put a figure on it? Sorry to harangue you but you have expertise
Ten weeks? Twenty?
The difference could be utterly crucial as cases and deaths begin to rise in Europe
There's a very curious north-south divide in Europe right now: Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark (which had previously been completely spared) are all seeing soaring cases, while in the South the numbers have barely budged. I wonder how much of this is weather related.
I think the long period of good late summer/early autumn weather here in Germany played a big part in keeping numbers relatively low up until recently. But there's also:
Vaccination rates in Portugal and Spain and Italy are higher than in Germany. I blame the strong German tradition of "alternative" medicine.
Regulations are stricter in some places (definitely in Italy), and seem to be much more strictly enforced in both Italy and Spain. Enforcement of the few rules (mainly 3g rules) is very lax in my experience round here. It's the freedom-loving Germans again!
Numbers with immunity from prior infection are probably also quite a bit lower.
What happened to that guy with the immunological dark matter theory?
That streak of trolling, Trumpian arrogance seems apparently to continue. Meanwhile, I expect more bad polls for the Tories to be coming over the weekend or early next week, if there are any due.
Back in August people on here were proclaiming the end of the American economy because of weak new job numbers. The numbers have now been revised and the figure is double the initial report making it a very strong month. September is shaping up to have the same level of revision as well.
There are insane numbers of "situations vacant" cards in windows here. My local Starbucks closes at 2pm because of staff shortages, my local Mexican is temporarily shut because of lack of staff, Cafe Luxxe is offering $20/hour for trainee baristas, with the promise of getting up to $30/hour including tips.
A disused gas station on Santa Monica Blvd has turned into a job fair, with employers and but no candidates.
And there are basically no Ubers. It simply doesn't pay enough to make people want to driver others around.
You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?
It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals
I’ve just returned from Spain, where they had a mask mandate in the middle of summer / warm bit of autumn. That to me seem unwise, as presumably it’s better to munch your exit wave when the weather is good, as masking simply delays it?
We have a mask mandate in Los Angeles County - it's basically shops, public transport, the communal areas of office building (lifts), plus the ridiculous dance in restaurants when you get up to use the bathroom.
The US still has very onerous Federal rules on airplanes (where they get very annoyed with you if you remove your mask for more than a few seconds), and in airports.
I’ve just come back from Greece where nobody minded too much about masks.
Nor did anyone on the Ryanair flight back. I mean, you are of course supposed to wear them but nobody is going to make you.
On flights in the US, if you refuse to wear a mask, you will be told to, and if you refuse you will get put on the No Fly List. Compliance is therefore basically 100%.
The USA land of the free, provided you don't upset someone enough to make a list.
Just huge value on him staying in post. The bar for Tory MPs to turn on a sitting PM with this kind of majority and any poll lead at all is vast.
Hmmm.
What's the first likely date for an election? And could he fluff it?
(When will the boundary commission report, and that be implemented.)
In terms of likely last possible date of the next election, a periodic reminder that the repeal of FTPA would set this as 23rd January 2025 (parliament automatically dissolving on 16/12, 5 years after first sitting, and the election taking place, 25 working days later plus 4 Bank Holidays later). (Can't remember if dissolution counts as day one in this, but I count day 25, including Scottish New Year BHs as Fri 24/1 if not).
Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals
They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines
Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
The test results are for early use, but do we know the pills are no help even if taken later on?
Hard to see how they could ethically test for this, other than enrolling everyone as soon as possible but letting people join late if needed for whatever reason. Obvious Pfizer will want to get people early and pump up their headline efficacy number but would be good to confirm this is still worthwhile if treatment starts a week late.
Mr. JohnL, does remind me of the first series of Blackadder and the archbishop who died falling backwards and landing on the spire of Norwich cathedral.
Family pornography? Is he talking about stepmom porn?
The campaign to make it illegal to photograph breastfeeding without consent met an obstacle in the Lords when Lord Wolfson of Tredegar argued it could spoil family pornography. The minister said it would be rough on a man who photographed his wife on the beach “for his own sexual gratification” and “unintentionally” included a woman he didn’t know with her breast out suckling. Wolfson’s holiday snaps must be fascinating.
This is the most batshit insane thing I have ever heard.
One does wonder if he thinks it's OK to sort of accidentally in the background snap a lady whose mammaries are out purely for the purpose of getting the vitamin D in.
I had to check which Wolfson Lord he is, and he's the one in the MoJ, of all places. Interesting.
Presimably we are agreed that "pornography" is a Hansard (Lords' version) typo for "photography", and that this is the Times Diary going all carry on - or imitating that Blair video that @TSE posted, which succeeded in demonstrating that Clue has precisely one joke, in total?
I'm Gareth, I'm a bald Welshman standing on land stolen from the Catevallauni by the Romans so Italy owes me reparations, my pronouns are you fat bastard, and I’m here to tell you how to cut and paste into a new Word document.
Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals
They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines
Up to a point, milord. The regimen for the antivirals is pretty ruthless: you have to spot covidians within three days of infection. So, quite a lot is bound to slip the net, surely, unless you test everyone every day?!
The test results are for early use, but do we know the pills are no help even if taken later on?
Hard to see how they could ethically test for this, other than enrolling everyone as soon as possible but letting people join late if needed for whatever reason. Obvious Pfizer will want to get people early and pump up their headline efficacy number but would be good to confirm this is still worthwhile if treatment starts a week late.
I think experience with other antivirals suggests that they might be much less help taken later on.
Family pornography? Is he talking about stepmom porn?
The campaign to make it illegal to photograph breastfeeding without consent met an obstacle in the Lords when Lord Wolfson of Tredegar argued it could spoil family pornography. The minister said it would be rough on a man who photographed his wife on the beach “for his own sexual gratification” and “unintentionally” included a woman he didn’t know with her breast out suckling. Wolfson’s holiday snaps must be fascinating.
This is the most batshit insane thing I have ever heard.
One does wonder if he thinks it's OK to sort of accidentally in the background snap a lady whose mammaries are out purely for the purpose of getting the vitamin D in.
I had to check which Wolfson Lord he is, and he's the one in the MoJ, of all places. Interesting.
Presimably we are agreed that "pornography" is a Hansard (Lords' version) typo for "photography", and that this is the Times Diary going all carry on - or imitating that Blair video that @TSE posted, which succeeded in demonstrating that Clue has precisely one joke, in total?
Can't be a typo, unless the "s.g." bit is also a typo, which is improbable to put it mildly. Either that or his idea of family pics is even weirder than it seems.
Fucking hell, next he'll admit to not knowing 'Paki' is an offensive term.
Yorkshire head coach Andrew Gale is being investigated by bosses over anti-Semitic social media messages, it has emerged amid the club's deepening racism crisis.
In a now deleted post on Twitter from November 2010, the then club captain told Paul Dews, who was head of media at Leeds United Football Club at the time, to "Button it y--!"
Gale told the Jewish News website, which first reported the tweet, that he was “completely unaware” of the offensive nature of the term at the time he sent the message.
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP. Except Grand Coalition of course.
Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
Yeah. Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3. Lab SNP. CON SNP LAB CON.
You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen. And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?
It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals
I’ve just returned from Spain, where they had a mask mandate in the middle of summer / warm bit of autumn. That to me seem unwise, as presumably it’s better to munch your exit wave when the weather is good, as masking simply delays it?
We have a mask mandate in Los Angeles County - it's basically shops, public transport, the communal areas of office building (lifts), plus the ridiculous dance in restaurants when you get up to use the bathroom.
The US still has very onerous Federal rules on airplanes (where they get very annoyed with you if you remove your mask for more than a few seconds), and in airports.
I’ve just come back from Greece where nobody minded too much about masks.
Nor did anyone on the Ryanair flight back. I mean, you are of course supposed to wear them but nobody is going to make you.
On flights in the US, if you refuse to wear a mask, you will be told to, and if you refuse you will get put on the No Fly List. Compliance is therefore basically 100%.
The USA land of the free, provided you don't upset someone enough to make a list.
Their special freedom seems to mainly consist of the freedom to own a huge arsenal of death weapons.
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
I disagree with the last point. High rollers won't be paying Boris Johnson for a tour d'horizon of big profound geopolitical issues, illuminated by his years in high office, they'll be looking for a good giggle. He'll be doing light relief stuff. That's where the mega bucks are for him. So his value is if anything reducing as he ages. Or at least that's where the balance of risk lies. Very few comics are better at 65 than they were at 45. Tarbuck maybe but I can't think of too many others. So he should leave Downing St asap if making money that way is a priority. But this is all a bit of a red herring imo. The truth is there isn't a cat's chance of him going before the election or, if he wins it, for years afterwards. If only.
Fucking hell, next he'll admit to not knowing 'Paki' is an offensive term.
Yorkshire head coach Andrew Gale is being investigated by bosses over anti-Semitic social media messages, it has emerged amid the club's deepening racism crisis.
In a now deleted post on Twitter from November 2010, the then club captain told Paul Dews, who was head of media at Leeds United Football Club at the time, to "Button it y--!"
Gale told the Jewish News website, which first reported the tweet, that he was “completely unaware” of the offensive nature of the term at the time he sent the message.
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP. Except Grand Coalition of course.
Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
Yeah. Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3. Lab SNP. CON SNP LAB CON.
You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen. And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP. Except Grand Coalition of course.
Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
Yeah. Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3. Lab SNP. CON SNP LAB CON.
You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen. And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
Labour have been soft on the indyref2 for a while now. A Lab-SNP coaltion doesn't seem that unlikely.
Is the same Jonathan Sumption who was denying George Monbiot's point on what those campaigning for the Reform Acts, the Chartists, and the Suffragettes, achieved by non-violent nuisance on the radio a couple of weeks ago, when the topic was extinction rebellion ?
He writes well at times, but he never seems to be sure whether he's a libertarian or an authoritarian. Whether a cause is known as right or leftwing often seems to be the only reliable predictor. There was a similar contrast to his view on Extinction Rebellion's disruption with his view of everyone's apparent liberty not to wear masks or accept restrictions, under virtually any circumstances, during the pandemic.
Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?
Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!
Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while
That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP. Except Grand Coalition of course.
Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
Yeah. Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3. Lab SNP. CON SNP LAB CON.
You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen. And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
Labour have been soft on the indyref2 for a while now. A Lab-SNP coaltion doesn't seem that unlikely.
It's Turkeys voting for Xmas. It doesn't work past Scottish Independence for Labour.
I wonder what the scale up and manufacture of Paxlovid will bring.
From the bit I know, vaccine developmemt and roll out is more geared to rapid turnaround than the multistep pharmaceutical manufacture of a new active ingredient.
The methods used to make a little of the active in the lab will be substantially unrelated to those that would be needed at scale, again perhaps moreso than for vaccines. You'd hope some parallel development would have started after early trials. A lot of the challenge may be dependent on dosage. If one batch / campaign will make 10 million pills worth of active that's a different story in terms of availability to market than if one campaign makes 100k pills worth. The former would imply fulfilling a lot of demand from one plant with perhaps less upfront optimisation but on consistent equipment, the latter may imply validation on multiple of the right types of plants, with differing vessels, control systems etc, and multiple FDA manufacturing approvals. If the manufacture is many chemical steps away from existing commercial precursors, there may also need to be deals and development work for intermediates molecules, possibly utilising other manufacturers, and which may be needed in substantially higher quantities than the final product, due to loss of yield along the way.
If, qualitatively, the vaccine industry faced all this in getting to market (in fact these are pretty standard questions of commercialisation and supply chain), then quantitatively this could be somewhat different. I suspect also, the number of different development horses you had to be ready to cover to get an all green book on manufacturing readiness is far higher and more varied for pharmaceuticals than for vaccines.
To summarise, how quickly supply can scale up will be at least, if not more, as live a question here as it will for vaccines.
Fucking hell, next he'll admit to not knowing 'Paki' is an offensive term.
Yorkshire head coach Andrew Gale is being investigated by bosses over anti-Semitic social media messages, it has emerged amid the club's deepening racism crisis.
In a now deleted post on Twitter from November 2010, the then club captain told Paul Dews, who was head of media at Leeds United Football Club at the time, to "Button it y--!"
Gale told the Jewish News website, which first reported the tweet, that he was “completely unaware” of the offensive nature of the term at the time he sent the message.
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP. Except Grand Coalition of course.
Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
Yeah. Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3. Lab SNP. CON SNP LAB CON.
You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen. And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
Most of the models have a huge landing zone for a very hung Parliament indeed, especially if the SNP continue to get 50 seats.
I don’t see how Starmer can survive a election campaign without explicitly saying no deals with the SNP, so if we don’t get a Con majority (or very close) we probably get a second election.
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP. Except Grand Coalition of course.
Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
Yeah. Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3. Lab SNP. CON SNP LAB CON.
You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen. And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
Labour have been soft on the indyref2 for a while now. A Lab-SNP coaltion doesn't seem that unlikely.
Starmer would likely give the SNP indyref2 if he needs their confidence and supply to become PM in a hung parliament.
Probably with devomax as a carrot to Scots to try and get them to vote No again
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP. Except Grand Coalition of course.
Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
Yeah. Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3. Lab SNP. CON SNP LAB CON.
You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen. And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
Most of the models have a huge landing zone for a very hung Parliament indeed, especially if the SNP continue to get 50 seats.
I don’t see how Starmer can survive a election campaign without explicitly saying no deals with the SNP, so if we don’t get a Con majority (or very close) we probably get a second election.
What Starmer says before election day and what happens after election day are likely to be two different things.
I do if Lab and an SNP coalition equals a majority of seats then that's what will happen, will the SNP really risk putting the Tories back in power?
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP. Except Grand Coalition of course.
Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
Yeah. Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3. Lab SNP. CON SNP LAB CON.
You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen. And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
I think we can safety discount option 3.
I could see a Labour-Conservative Grand Coalition between Starmer and Sunak working, albeit Boris would likely have to go if he had lost his majority.
Though the Tory right and Labour left would not like it, so it is unlikely it would happen, it would also avoid the need for the SNP.
It would boost RefUK and the Greens but could be sustainable, look at Germany and the years of CDU/CSU and SPD grand coalition they have had
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP. Except Grand Coalition of course.
Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
Yeah. Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3. Lab SNP. CON SNP LAB CON.
You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen. And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
Labour have been soft on the indyref2 for a while now. A Lab-SNP coaltion doesn't seem that unlikely.
It's Turkeys voting for Xmas. It doesn't work past Scottish Independence for Labour.
Fucking hell, next he'll admit to not knowing 'Paki' is an offensive term.
Yorkshire head coach Andrew Gale is being investigated by bosses over anti-Semitic social media messages, it has emerged amid the club's deepening racism crisis.
In a now deleted post on Twitter from November 2010, the then club captain told Paul Dews, who was head of media at Leeds United Football Club at the time, to "Button it y--!"
Gale told the Jewish News website, which first reported the tweet, that he was “completely unaware” of the offensive nature of the term at the time he sent the message.
I am starting to think Yorkshire CCC won't survive this.
I think they need to appoint me Chief Executive and Executive Chairman of YCCC and I'll fix all the problems.
A strong Yorkshire means a strong England.
They need a serious clearout of the top echelons of the club, including the coaching staff, the board and the permanent executive. The whole lot of them need to go, to retain the confidence of the members and sponsors.
Fucking hell, next he'll admit to not knowing 'Paki' is an offensive term.
Yorkshire head coach Andrew Gale is being investigated by bosses over anti-Semitic social media messages, it has emerged amid the club's deepening racism crisis.
In a now deleted post on Twitter from November 2010, the then club captain told Paul Dews, who was head of media at Leeds United Football Club at the time, to "Button it y--!"
Gale told the Jewish News website, which first reported the tweet, that he was “completely unaware” of the offensive nature of the term at the time he sent the message.
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP. Except Grand Coalition of course.
Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
Yeah. Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3. Lab SNP. CON SNP LAB CON.
You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen. And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
Labour have been soft on the indyref2 for a while now. A Lab-SNP coaltion doesn't seem that unlikely.
Starmer would likely give the SNP indyref2 if he needs their confidence and supply to become PM in a hung parliament.
Probably with devomax as a carrot to Scots to try and get them to vote No again
I agree with this analysis apart from the devomax bit (although you may be right there too)
Us Yoons know that Tories/Bozo are best for the union.
I hope soon a Labour lead will appear to lift me up
You should be much cheered by the goings on of yesterday.
The fiasco may not gain immediate traction (although, I may be surprised) but Johnson removed quite a lot of his Teflon yesterday. Not only did he damage himself but he raised questions about the Conservative brand. If voters start to struggle (one of my customers in Gloucester went bang on Monday morning with the loss of 300 jobs- Complete Utilities- I just lost about a grand) the Three Line Whip nonsense will bite the party hard.
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP. Except Grand Coalition of course.
Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
Yeah. Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3. Lab SNP. CON SNP LAB CON.
You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen. And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
Labour have been soft on the indyref2 for a while now. A Lab-SNP coaltion doesn't seem that unlikely.
Starmer would likely give the SNP indyref2 if he needs their confidence and supply to become PM in a hung parliament.
Probably with devomax as a carrot to Scots to try and get them to vote No again
I agree with this analysis apart from the devomax bit (although you may be right there too)
Us Yoons know that Tories/Bozo are best for the union.
Why don't you want to have the vote, win it, and kill Sindy off good and proper instead of this 'delay delay' approach?
The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
How many points ahead do Labour have to be for most seats crossover?
40 to 37 just manages it on new boundaries if everyone else stays the same.
Ominously, no majority is possible on those numbers without the SNP. Except Grand Coalition of course.
Labour's SNP problem never seems to go away. The only way it would is if somehow another independence referendum is held before the next election and the pro-Indy side loses it, which would mean they wouldn't be able to demand another one from Labour so soon.
Yeah. Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3. Lab SNP. CON SNP LAB CON.
You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen. And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
Labour have been soft on the indyref2 for a while now. A Lab-SNP coaltion doesn't seem that unlikely.
Starmer would likely give the SNP indyref2 if he needs their confidence and supply to become PM in a hung parliament.
Probably with devomax as a carrot to Scots to try and get them to vote No again
I agree with this analysis apart from the devomax bit (although you may be right there too)
Us Yoons know that Tories/Bozo are best for the union.
Then Starmer would need to lead remain and would be remembered as the person who lost Scotland if he failed
Fucking hell, next he'll admit to not knowing 'Paki' is an offensive term.
Yorkshire head coach Andrew Gale is being investigated by bosses over anti-Semitic social media messages, it has emerged amid the club's deepening racism crisis.
In a now deleted post on Twitter from November 2010, the then club captain told Paul Dews, who was head of media at Leeds United Football Club at the time, to "Button it y--!"
Gale told the Jewish News website, which first reported the tweet, that he was “completely unaware” of the offensive nature of the term at the time he sent the message.
It’s really annoying watching a match that’s ‘sold out’, played in front of half a crowd.
Come on sponsors, national associations, and all the other hangers-on sitting on piles of tickets, if you’re not going to use them, then hand them back for general sale.
Comments
Britain is good at mass testing, so that is helpful. We now need to hone this so we can focus the testing on the vulnerable - old, fat, sick. And we need a protocol in place so that when these people are tested positive, they are fast tracked to the new pills
The testing companies need to be hooked up to special dispensaries - Boots? - which can hand out the tablets. Perhaps we can cut out GPs altogether? Speeding things up. Or at least do it all super fast via the Net
Nasty, ignorant, not very bright man.
or whenever it was, and there was an NHS number I called, described my symptoms and they then authorized me to get a course of tamiflu from my local pharmacy. Presumably something similar could be done with molnupiravir.
Britain is however an over-tester. We have done 333 million tests, putting us third in the world, behind India and the USA (in absolute totals) and ahead of countries as big as China
This could now play to our advantage, if we target our massive testing at the vulnerable, then get them to the tablets when they test poz
The US still has very onerous Federal rules on airplanes (where they get very annoyed with you if you remove your mask for more than a few seconds), and in airports.
Certainly Pfizer shares are doing pretty nicely
Someone, somewhere, will be pleasuring himself to such sights.
Nor did anyone on the Ryanair flight back. I mean, you are of course supposed to wear them but nobody is going to make you.
I thought all the previous legislation relating to parliament length had been repealed, and furthermore the prerogative power of the Queen to agree (with her ministers) to dissolve parliament. Therefore if you simply remove the FTPA, you end up with no mechanism for dissolving parliament, and no limit on the lengths of parliament.
This would severely limit future betting opportunities, so I oppose it.
Surely in part a factor. Also waning immunity? The countries which vaxed quicker are now seeing weaker immunity earlier?
And also simple levels of prior infection. Italy has had a horrible time, likewise Spain, but that does now mean many of them have already had a dose and are now immune, limiting spread. Meanwhile countries that never got hit - Denmark, as you say - have plenty of potential victims
Hungary, of course, approved the Russian Sputnik vaccine. What ability is there for individual countries to approve Pfizer, or does it all have to go through the EMA?
* Well, from Monday
Except Grand Coalition of course.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1456586903302639620
So it's not just weather.
Is there anywhere that tells you this? in one handy graphic?
Vaccination rates in Portugal and Spain and Italy are higher than in Germany. I blame the strong German tradition of "alternative" medicine.
Regulations are stricter in some places (definitely in Italy), and seem to be much more strictly enforced in both Italy and Spain. Enforcement of the few rules (mainly 3g rules) is very lax in my experience round here. It's the freedom-loving Germans again!
Numbers with immunity from prior infection are probably also quite a bit lower.
What happened to that guy with the immunological dark matter theory?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/05/russian-diplomat-suspected-spy-found-dead-berlin-apparent-fall/ (£££)
The Telegraph lists a further half-dozen similarly mysterious deaths of Russian diplomats in recent years.
A disused gas station on Santa Monica Blvd has turned into a job fair, with employers and but no candidates.
And there are basically no Ubers. It simply doesn't pay enough to make people want to driver others around.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/
I did find this handy Italian newspaper article, which gives a pretty decent summary of the state of play across Europe
There don't seem to be any proper lockdowns anywhere, except Romania, which has a 10pm-5am curfew for the next month or so
Almost all countries seem to be using some kind of vaxport. The UK is a total outlier here
https://www.iltempo.it/esteri/2021/11/04/news/covid-quarta-ondata-europa-contagi-lockdown-francia-inghilterra-germania-russia-svizzera-romania-29323387/#.YYRWy3RaTT8.twitter
Do you think they are slight favourites?
I'm Gareth, I'm a bald Welshman standing on land stolen from the Catevallauni by the Romans so Italy owes me reparations, my pronouns are you fat bastard, and I’m here to tell you how to cut and paste into a new Word document.
https://twitter.com/OldRoberts953/status/1456594563506839559?s=20
Democracy is being quietly redefined
BY JONATHAN SUMPTION"
https://unherd.com/2021/11/when-fear-leads-to-tyranny/
Yorkshire head coach Andrew Gale is being investigated by bosses over anti-Semitic social media messages, it has emerged amid the club's deepening racism crisis.
In a now deleted post on Twitter from November 2010, the then club captain told Paul Dews, who was head of media at Leeds United Football Club at the time, to "Button it y--!"
Gale told the Jewish News website, which first reported the tweet, that he was “completely unaware” of the offensive nature of the term at the time he sent the message.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/11/05/yorkshire-cricket-racism-storm-chairman-quits-hits-ecb-latest/
Although the really interesting thing about 40-37 is that there would be no combination which would produce a majority at all. Apart from 3.
Lab SNP.
CON SNP
LAB CON.
You would feel the SNP would be in a strong position. Would not like to speculate what might happen.
And how would voters behave if that were the prospect? Difficult to say.
Any Putin operatives with a sense of history woul have done that in Prague.
I am starting to think Yorkshire CCC won't survive this.
He writes well at times, but he never seems to be sure whether he's a libertarian or an authoritarian. Whether a cause is known as right or leftwing often seems to be the only reliable predictor. There was a similar contrast to his view on Extinction Rebellion's disruption with his view of everyone's apparent liberty not to wear masks or accept restrictions, under virtually any circumstances, during the pandemic.
From the bit I know, vaccine developmemt and roll out is more geared to rapid turnaround than the multistep pharmaceutical manufacture of a new active ingredient.
The methods used to make a little of the active in the lab will be substantially unrelated to those that would be needed at scale, again perhaps moreso than for vaccines. You'd hope some parallel development would have started after early trials. A lot of the challenge may be dependent on dosage. If one batch / campaign will make 10 million pills worth of active that's a different story in terms of availability to market than if one campaign makes 100k pills worth. The former would imply fulfilling a lot of demand from one plant with perhaps less upfront optimisation but on consistent equipment, the latter may imply validation on multiple of the right types of plants, with differing vessels, control systems etc, and multiple FDA manufacturing approvals. If the manufacture is many chemical steps away from existing commercial precursors, there may also need to be deals and development work for intermediates molecules, possibly utilising other manufacturers, and which may be needed in substantially higher quantities than the final product, due to loss of yield along the way.
If, qualitatively, the vaccine industry faced all this in getting to market (in fact these are pretty standard questions of commercialisation and supply chain), then quantitatively this could be somewhat different. I suspect also, the number of different development horses you had to be ready to cover to get an all green book on manufacturing readiness is far higher and more varied for pharmaceuticals than for vaccines.
To summarise, how quickly supply can scale up will be at least, if not more, as live a question here as it will for vaccines.
A strong Yorkshire means a strong England.
I don’t see how Starmer can survive a election campaign without explicitly saying no deals with the SNP, so if we don’t get a Con majority (or very close) we probably get a second election.
Probably with devomax as a carrot to Scots to try and get them to vote No again
I do if Lab and an SNP coalition equals a majority of seats then that's what will happen, will the SNP really risk putting the Tories back in power?
It's all about bums on seats, a 2010 showed.
Though the Tory right and Labour left would not like it, so it is unlikely it would happen, it would also avoid the need for the SNP.
It would boost RefUK and the Greens but could be sustainable, look at Germany and the years of CDU/CSU and SPD grand coalition they have had
I hope BoJo has pre-prepared his Sec. 30 letter.
Us Yoons know that Tories/Bozo are best for the union.
The fiasco may not gain immediate traction (although, I may be surprised) but Johnson removed quite a lot of his Teflon yesterday. Not only did he damage himself but he raised questions about the Conservative brand. If voters start to struggle (one of my customers in Gloucester went bang on Monday morning with the loss of 300 jobs- Complete Utilities- I just lost about a grand) the Three Line Whip nonsense will bite the party hard.
Come on sponsors, national associations, and all the other hangers-on sitting on piles of tickets, if you’re not going to use them, then hand them back for general sale.