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It is still odds-on that BoJo will survive as PM till 2024 or later – politicalbetting.com
It is still odds-on that BoJo will survive as PM till 2024 or later – politicalbetting.com
As can be seen from the chart of Betfair’s Boris exit date market there has been a little bit of movement in the past 24 hours with 2022 moving from an 18% chance yesterday to a 24% chance now. Over the same period, 2024 or later edged down from a 58% chance to a 54% one.
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TSE and the bloke with the Andy Pandy Teddy Bear logo nowhere to be seen.
What's the first likely date for an election? And could he fluff it?
(When will the boundary commission report, and that be implemented.)
Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!
Even after Brexit I can see that sequence extending and covering Boris Johnson.
You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?
It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wTR03jlQ8M
Implemented October 2023 so I suspect an election November / December 2023
otherwise you are in to 2024 and supposedly the election should be held on May 4th alongside London Mayoral election.
Covid
A successful COP26 summit
That's a decent set of results for any PM - it's probably all downhill from here.
Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25
I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1456598827578843139/photo/1
“They jostled for favour, eager to suck from the flower of his youthful glamour, while quietly conscious of the majestic power that would one day be his”
Is this just terrible writing or is there a hidden message?
Edit: by-then-Lord Paterson, of course.
Brexit may not be finished (it's going to continue for ever) but there are few obvious gains left that your average voter will see or care about,
The campaign to make it illegal to photograph breastfeeding without consent met an obstacle in the Lords when Lord Wolfson of Tredegar argued it could spoil family pornography. The minister said it would be rough on a man who photographed his wife on the beach “for his own sexual gratification” and “unintentionally” included a woman he didn’t know with her breast out suckling. Wolfson’s holiday snaps must be fascinating.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-diary-dean-chases-his-flock-away-w0kb9jdwj
See the photo ...
'Few new Tories have spoken out publicly. But one, Aaron Bell, the MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, said in the Commons debate on the issue this week that he would vote against the government-backed amendment, claiming it “makes it looks like we’re moving the goalposts” by changing the rules specially for Paterson.'
I wonder where he got the goalposts bit from ...?
Ten weeks? Twenty?
The difference could be utterly crucial as cases and deaths begin to rise in Europe
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election?wprov=sfla1
For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not expecting the next GE to take place in 2025, it's just a curiosity I'm rather taken by.
I had to check which Wolfson Lord he is, and he's the one in the MoJ, of all places. Interesting.
'Eyebrows have also been raised at Angela Richardson, who became the MP for Guildford in 2019, losing her job as a parliamentary private secretary (PPS) in Michael Gove’s levelling up department for abstaining on the amendment to spare Paterson’s suspension, only to be reinstated the following day when the government reversed course.
A Tory aide said the move could encourage other PPSs to rebel against three-line whips, given their excuse would be “well, we thought there would be a U-turn”.'
I'm going to regret asking this, I think, but is intentionally taking photos of random women breastfeeding a thing? Strikes me there are far easier ways of accessing pictures of a (more exposed) bosom, even buying the Sun, for example (does page 3 still exist?).
https://twitter.com/rortybomb/status/1456603806016413700
https://twitter.com/BharatRamamurti/status/1456615646289072131
Back in August people on here were proclaiming the end of the American economy because of weak new job numbers. The numbers have now been revised and the figure is double the initial report making it a very strong month. September is shaping up to have the same level of revision as well.
https://charliehebdo.fr/2021/10/international/royaume-uni-boris-johnson-coq-chante-pieds-merde/
The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
Pfizer has to file to start the clock. Much of the same data as the FDA but the reports are different
Then EMA has 180 days to respond with any questions and comments, Pfizer responds to comments and EMA gets 90 days to review responses.
They also need to get a team of 5-6 inspectors into the US to conduct a site review.
I’d assume a minimum of 12 weeks from filing even ignoring Christmas when everyone in the sector is already burnt out
"Pfizer expects to produce more than 180,000 treatment courses by the end of 2021 and at least 50 million more courses in 2022. A spokesperson said Pfizer was expanding capacity and planned to update these numbers in the coming weeks."
https://www.businessinsider.com/pfizers-covid-19-pill-paxlovid-cuts-hospitalizations-deaths-by-89-2021-11?r=US&IR=T
It's not gonna arrive in time to save us from a rough European winter
The other thing that struck me was Labour’s ‘Make Brexit Work’ would be to align as closely as possible with the EU, most likely inc FOM (Sir Keir’s 100,000 truckers) so it wouldn’t be that much different to 2019, other than them not bothering w a second referendum
Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
I’d assume a woman in a bikini is more titillating to most, but I don’t know what cafes you request
Preparations for these autumn tests are going swimmingly for England.
Looks like Spring 2022 at the earliest for these pills to have a serious influence on events. But still, they are on the way
The closest parallel in our lifetimes is probably 9/11.
I'd missed the news, if announced - but that means you are a father then? Congratulations if so. Hope all went smoothly.
If I'm editing PB at the time of HMQ's death I will simply headline the piece with 'The man who wished to be a tampon inside Camilla Parker-Bowles is our new unelected ruler' then switch off my router and go into conclave with my music collection for a month.
"Under deals announced out in October, the UK expects to receive 480,000 doses of molnupiravir later this year, with 250,000 courses of paxlovid due in late January. Paxlovid is a combination of an antiviral drug with ritonavir, a drug usually used to treat HIV/Aids."
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/05/pfizer-covid-pills-highly-effective-at-preventing-deaths-trial-suggests
They then have to get pumped out to GPs and we need to set up a system whereby people get tested and then get these tablets straight after, if positive. So again it will likely be Spring before we see anything. HMG should be organising this NOW. Likewise governments everywhere
Remember Diana died shortly after the 1997 general election, George Vth died a month after the 1935 general election
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14
They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines
Presumably there will be an effort to ensure that those most at risk do get treated quickly, but it will be quite hard, I would think.
* Which is why if you get shingles, don't hang around, fight your way through the GP receptionist to get a prescription straight away.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClX3graQBxI