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It is still odds-on that BoJo will survive as PM till 2024 or later – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 5 in General
imageIt is still odds-on that BoJo will survive as PM till 2024 or later – politicalbetting.com

As can be seen from the chart of Betfair’s Boris exit date market there has been a little bit of movement in the past 24 hours with 2022 moving from an 18% chance yesterday to a 24% chance now. Over the same period, 2024 or later edged down from a 58% chance to a 54% one.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,961
    Test
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    Just huge value on him staying in post. The bar for Tory MPs to turn on a sitting PM with this kind of majority and any poll lead at all is vast.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,741
    edited November 5
    3rd.

    TSE and the bloke with the Andy Pandy Teddy Bear logo nowhere to be seen.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,162
    He's not that old. Plenty of time to make lots of money after being PM for many more years, and he'd surely rather be a PM with a length of record to rival Thatcher and Blair, than be down around Brown and May.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,741
    edited November 5
    Quincel said:

    Just huge value on him staying in post. The bar for Tory MPs to turn on a sitting PM with this kind of majority and any poll lead at all is vast.

    Hmmm.

    What's the first likely date for an election? And could he fluff it?

    (When will the boundary commission report, and that be implemented.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    edited November 5
    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,188
    I expect Boris to be there until about 2027, three years after his next comfortable majority.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,774
    MattW said:

    3rd.

    TSE and the bloke with the Andy Pandy Teddy Bear logo nowhere to be seen.

    Hello again.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Lionel Blair. Not Tony.
  • Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Lionel, not Tony.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Lionel, not Tony.
    What can you infer about the difference between us from our two answers?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,768
    edited November 5
    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Nothing too much to get excited about. Ed Miliband has just been called to give an account and testify for himself at the centre of a massive sleaze, bribery and military procurement scandal, but the Tories are coasting along as normal.
  • Every Conservative Prime Minister from 1979 onwards has their premiership ended or destroyed because of Europe.

    Even after Brexit I can see that sequence extending and covering Boris Johnson.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals
  • Speaking of Lionel Blair, loved this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wTR03jlQ8M
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    edited November 5
    MattW said:

    Quincel said:

    Just huge value on him staying in post. The bar for Tory MPs to turn on a sitting PM with this kind of majority and any poll lead at all is vast.

    Hmmm.

    What's the first likely date for an election? And could he fluff it?

    (When will the boundary commission report, and that be implemented.)
    I covered that earlier

    Implemented October 2023 so I suspect an election November / December 2023

    otherwise you are in to 2024 and supposedly the election should be held on May 4th alongside London Mayoral election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Lionel Blair. Not Tony.
    Indeed, it did take a minute to work out it was the guy who was famous for playing charades on 1980s TV, and not the former PM!
  • Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Lionel, not Tony.
    What can you infer about the difference between us from our two answers?
    I'm a fan of the comma.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441
    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,701

    He's not that old. Plenty of time to make lots of money after being PM for many more years, and he'd surely rather be a PM with a length of record to rival Thatcher and Blair, than be down around Brown and May.

    Boris's USP is that he has never lost an election since Oxford. MP, Mayor, MP, Brexit, Leader, ge2019. Imo he will bail rather than risk losing that record, both for ego and for his price on the lecture circuit. Boris will not be voted out, he will walk out on what can at least be spun as his own terms.
  • He's not that old. Plenty of time to make lots of money after being PM for many more years, and he'd surely rather be a PM with a length of record to rival Thatcher and Blair, than be down around Brown and May.

    Boris's USP is that he has never lost an election since Oxford. MP, Mayor, MP, Brexit, Leader, ge2019. Imo he will bail rather than risk losing that record, both for ego and for his price on the lecture circuit. Boris will not be voted out, he will walk out on what can at least be spun as his own terms.
    Fake news, he lost an election after Oxford, Clwyd South, in 1997.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743

    He's not that old. Plenty of time to make lots of money after being PM for many more years, and he'd surely rather be a PM with a length of record to rival Thatcher and Blair, than be down around Brown and May.

    Boris's USP is that he has never lost an election since Oxford. MP, Mayor, MP, Brexit, Leader, ge2019. Imo he will bail rather than risk losing that record, both for ego and for his price on the lecture circuit. Boris will not be voted out, he will walk out on what can at least be spun as his own terms.
    Brexit
    Covid
    A successful COP26 summit

    That's a decent set of results for any PM - it's probably all downhill from here.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    edited November 5
    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
    Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer

    Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25

    I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,449
    eek said:

    He's not that old. Plenty of time to make lots of money after being PM for many more years, and he'd surely rather be a PM with a length of record to rival Thatcher and Blair, than be down around Brown and May.

    Boris's USP is that he has never lost an election since Oxford. MP, Mayor, MP, Brexit, Leader, ge2019. Imo he will bail rather than risk losing that record, both for ego and for his price on the lecture circuit. Boris will not be voted out, he will walk out on what can at least be spun as his own terms.
    Brexit
    Covid
    A successful COP26 summit

    That's a decent set of results for any PM - it's probably all downhill from here.
    Brexit still not done. As the points being made about it being revived for the next election make clear.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833

    Speaking of Lionel Blair, loved this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wTR03jlQ8M

    In that vein, I’ve just been reading Charles Spencer’s booking on the death of William Aetheling and it included the following:

    “They jostled for favour, eager to suck from the flower of his youthful glamour, while quietly conscious of the majestic power that would one day be his”

    Is this just terrible writing or is there a hidden message?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441
    edited November 5

    He's not that old. Plenty of time to make lots of money after being PM for many more years, and he'd surely rather be a PM with a length of record to rival Thatcher and Blair, than be down around Brown and May.

    Boris's USP is that he has never lost an election since Oxford. MP, Mayor, MP, Brexit, Leader, ge2019. Imo he will bail rather than risk losing that record, both for ego and for his price on the lecture circuit. Boris will not be voted out, he will walk out on what can at least be spun as his own terms.
    “Listen here Boris, I know you’re busy running the country after being Mayor of London for 8 years, and you’ve got to spend time with your wife who is 25 years your junior… but it’s come to our attention there’s a group of old men on Twitter and PB who see you as a loser”
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
    Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer

    Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25

    I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
    You need the site inspection by the EMA as well as the dossier review.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,449
    edited November 5
    I wonder if Mr Paterson will end up as SoSforWalesitC?

    Edit: by-then-Lord Paterson, of course.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924
    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    I’ve just returned from Spain, where they had a mask mandate in the middle of summer / warm bit of autumn. That to me seem unwise, as presumably it’s better to munch your exit wave when the weather is good, as masking simply delays it?
  • Charles said:

    Speaking of Lionel Blair, loved this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wTR03jlQ8M

    In that vein, I’ve just been reading Charles Spencer’s booking on the death of William Aetheling and it included the following:

    “They jostled for favour, eager to suck from the flower of his youthful glamour, while quietly conscious of the majestic power that would one day be his”

    Is this just terrible writing or is there a hidden message?
    That sounds like something I would write, so I'm going for innuendo klaxon.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,449
    Charles said:

    Speaking of Lionel Blair, loved this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wTR03jlQ8M

    In that vein, I’ve just been reading Charles Spencer’s booking on the death of William Aetheling and it included the following:

    “They jostled for favour, eager to suck from the flower of his youthful glamour, while quietly conscious of the majestic power that would one day be his”

    Is this just terrible writing or is there a hidden message?
    In strict logic, those are not mutually exclusive conclusions.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    He's not that old. Plenty of time to make lots of money after being PM for many more years, and he'd surely rather be a PM with a length of record to rival Thatcher and Blair, than be down around Brown and May.

    Boris's USP is that he has never lost an election since Oxford. MP, Mayor, MP, Brexit, Leader, ge2019. Imo he will bail rather than risk losing that record, both for ego and for his price on the lecture circuit. Boris will not be voted out, he will walk out on what can at least be spun as his own terms.
    Brexit
    Covid
    A successful COP26 summit

    That's a decent set of results for any PM - it's probably all downhill from here.
    Brexit still not done. As the points being made about it being revived for the next election make clear.
    See my last point - it's all downhill from here.

    Brexit may not be finished (it's going to continue for ever) but there are few obvious gains left that your average voter will see or care about,
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,449
    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    He's not that old. Plenty of time to make lots of money after being PM for many more years, and he'd surely rather be a PM with a length of record to rival Thatcher and Blair, than be down around Brown and May.

    Boris's USP is that he has never lost an election since Oxford. MP, Mayor, MP, Brexit, Leader, ge2019. Imo he will bail rather than risk losing that record, both for ego and for his price on the lecture circuit. Boris will not be voted out, he will walk out on what can at least be spun as his own terms.
    Brexit
    Covid
    A successful COP26 summit

    That's a decent set of results for any PM - it's probably all downhill from here.
    Brexit still not done. As the points being made about it being revived for the next election make clear.
    See my last point - it's all downhill from here.

    Brexit may not be finished (it's going to continue for ever) but there are few obvious gains left that your average voter will see or care about,
    Quite so. The same could be said of the other two.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080

    He's not that old. Plenty of time to make lots of money after being PM for many more years, and he'd surely rather be a PM with a length of record to rival Thatcher and Blair, than be down around Brown and May.

    Boris's USP is that he has never lost an election since Oxford. MP, Mayor, MP, Brexit, Leader, ge2019. Imo he will bail rather than risk losing that record, both for ego and for his price on the lecture circuit. Boris will not be voted out, he will walk out on what can at least be spun as his own terms.
    Clwyd South 1997.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Speaking of Lionel Blair, loved this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wTR03jlQ8M

    In that vein, I’ve just been reading Charles Spencer’s booking on the death of William Aetheling and it included the following:

    “They jostled for favour, eager to suck from the flower of his youthful glamour, while quietly conscious of the majestic power that would one day be his”

    Is this just terrible writing or is there a hidden message?
    In strict logic, those are not mutually exclusive conclusions.
    I think the use of the word “just” protects me, because it strictly limits the first option while not closing off other combinations such as the one you propose
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
    Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer

    Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25

    I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
    You need the site inspection by the EMA as well as the dossier review.
    So what's a likely time-scale, in your opinion? How long before these arrive at a GP near you or Kamski?
  • Family pornography? Is he talking about stepmom porn?

    The campaign to make it illegal to photograph breastfeeding without consent met an obstacle in the Lords when Lord Wolfson of Tredegar argued it could spoil family pornography. The minister said it would be rough on a man who photographed his wife on the beach “for his own sexual gratification” and “unintentionally” included a woman he didn’t know with her breast out suckling. Wolfson’s holiday snaps must be fascinating.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-diary-dean-chases-his-flock-away-w0kb9jdwj
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,017

    Charles said:

    Speaking of Lionel Blair, loved this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wTR03jlQ8M

    In that vein, I’ve just been reading Charles Spencer’s booking on the death of William Aetheling and it included the following:

    “They jostled for favour, eager to suck from the flower of his youthful glamour, while quietly conscious of the majestic power that would one day be his”

    Is this just terrible writing or is there a hidden message?
    That sounds like something I would write, so I'm going for innuendo klaxon.
    I think I have found a video fo the innuendo klaxon being used - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mVSTO-PKSM
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
    Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer

    Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25

    I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
    You need the site inspection by the EMA as well as the dossier review.
    So what's a likely time-scale, in your opinion? How long before these arrive at a GP near you or Kamski?
    Depends how quickly Pfizer file with the EMA but they are not quick. Travel logistics for the site inspection will be tricky as well
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death. It’s also okay if they were a comedian, Sean Lock and Norm Macdonald jokes were plenty.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,449
    edited November 5
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/05/newer-tory-mps-furious-at-no-10-order-to-back-owen-paterson

    See the photo ...

    'Few new Tories have spoken out publicly. But one, Aaron Bell, the MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, said in the Commons debate on the issue this week that he would vote against the government-backed amendment, claiming it “makes it looks like we’re moving the goalposts” by changing the rules specially for Paterson.'

    I wonder where he got the goalposts bit from ...?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638

    Family pornography? Is he talking about stepmom porn?

    The campaign to make it illegal to photograph breastfeeding without consent met an obstacle in the Lords when Lord Wolfson of Tredegar argued it could spoil family pornography. The minister said it would be rough on a man who photographed his wife on the beach “for his own sexual gratification” and “unintentionally” included a woman he didn’t know with her breast out suckling. Wolfson’s holiday snaps must be fascinating.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-diary-dean-chases-his-flock-away-w0kb9jdwj

    This is the most batshit insane thing I have ever heard.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
    Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer

    Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25

    I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
    You need the site inspection by the EMA as well as the dossier review.
    So what's a likely time-scale, in your opinion? How long before these arrive at a GP near you or Kamski?
    Depends how quickly Pfizer file with the EMA but they are not quick. Travel logistics for the site inspection will be tricky as well
    Could you put a figure on it? Sorry to harangue you but you have expertise

    Ten weeks? Twenty?

    The difference could be utterly crucial as cases and deaths begin to rise in Europe
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,774
    MattW said:

    Quincel said:

    Just huge value on him staying in post. The bar for Tory MPs to turn on a sitting PM with this kind of majority and any poll lead at all is vast.

    Hmmm.

    What's the first likely date for an election? And could he fluff it?

    (When will the boundary commission report, and that be implemented.)
    In terms of likely last possible date of the next election, a periodic reminder that the repeal of FTPA would set this as 23rd January 2025 (parliament automatically dissolving on 16/12, 5 years after first sitting, and the election taking place, 25 working days later plus 4 Bank Holidays later). (Can't remember if dissolution counts as day one in this, but I count day 25, including Scottish New Year BHs as Fri 24/1 if not).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election?wprov=sfla1

    For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not expecting the next GE to take place in 2025, it's just a curiosity I'm rather taken by.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,449
    DougSeal said:

    Family pornography? Is he talking about stepmom porn?

    The campaign to make it illegal to photograph breastfeeding without consent met an obstacle in the Lords when Lord Wolfson of Tredegar argued it could spoil family pornography. The minister said it would be rough on a man who photographed his wife on the beach “for his own sexual gratification” and “unintentionally” included a woman he didn’t know with her breast out suckling. Wolfson’s holiday snaps must be fascinating.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-diary-dean-chases-his-flock-away-w0kb9jdwj

    This is the most batshit insane thing I have ever heard.
    One does wonder if he thinks it's OK to sort of accidentally in the background snap a lady whose mammaries are out purely for the purpose of getting the vitamin D in.

    I had to check which Wolfson Lord he is, and he's the one in the MoJ, of all places. Interesting.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,893
    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/05/newer-tory-mps-furious-at-no-10-order-to-back-owen-paterson

    See the photo ...

    'Few new Tories have spoken out publicly. But one, Aaron Bell, the MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, said in the Commons debate on the issue this week that he would vote against the government-backed amendment, claiming it “makes it looks like we’re moving the goalposts” by changing the rules specially for Paterson.'

    I wonder where he got the goalposts bit from ...?

    He is still reading the site, according to his profile.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    MattW said:

    Quincel said:

    Just huge value on him staying in post. The bar for Tory MPs to turn on a sitting PM with this kind of majority and any poll lead at all is vast.

    Hmmm.

    What's the first likely date for an election? And could he fluff it?

    (When will the boundary commission report, and that be implemented.)
    If Johnson looks like losing an election is he really going to call one early?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,449
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/05/newer-tory-mps-furious-at-no-10-order-to-back-owen-paterson

    See the photo ...

    'Few new Tories have spoken out publicly. But one, Aaron Bell, the MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, said in the Commons debate on the issue this week that he would vote against the government-backed amendment, claiming it “makes it looks like we’re moving the goalposts” by changing the rules specially for Paterson.'

    I wonder where he got the goalposts bit from ...?

    He is still reading the site, according to his profile.
    I also liked the writer's (not TP's, presumably) conclusion ...

    'Eyebrows have also been raised at Angela Richardson, who became the MP for Guildford in 2019, losing her job as a parliamentary private secretary (PPS) in Michael Gove’s levelling up department for abstaining on the amendment to spare Paterson’s suspension, only to be reinstated the following day when the government reversed course.

    A Tory aide said the move could encourage other PPSs to rebel against three-line whips, given their excuse would be “well, we thought there would be a U-turn”.'
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806

    Family pornography? Is he talking about stepmom porn?

    The campaign to make it illegal to photograph breastfeeding without consent met an obstacle in the Lords when Lord Wolfson of Tredegar argued it could spoil family pornography. The minister said it would be rough on a man who photographed his wife on the beach “for his own sexual gratification” and “unintentionally” included a woman he didn’t know with her breast out suckling. Wolfson’s holiday snaps must be fascinating.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-diary-dean-chases-his-flock-away-w0kb9jdwj

    That's a really bizarre (way of making the) argument. There is a discussion about photos in all kinds of settings that happen to include a breastfeeding woman in the background - e.g. family pic in a cafe or whatever and someone is breastfeeding on the next table and how you would make such a law workable given that - but it seems to me that this is a bit of a niche angle.

    I'm going to regret asking this, I think, but is intentionally taking photos of random women breastfeeding a thing? Strikes me there are far easier ways of accessing pictures of a (more exposed) bosom, even buying the Sun, for example (does page 3 still exist?).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,634
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/05/newer-tory-mps-furious-at-no-10-order-to-back-owen-paterson

    See the photo ...

    'Few new Tories have spoken out publicly. But one, Aaron Bell, the MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, said in the Commons debate on the issue this week that he would vote against the government-backed amendment, claiming it “makes it looks like we’re moving the goalposts” by changing the rules specially for Paterson.'

    I wonder where he got the goalposts bit from ...?

    He is still reading the site, according to his profile.
    I also liked the writer's (not TP's, presumably) conclusion ...

    'Eyebrows have also been raised at Angela Richardson, who became the MP for Guildford in 2019, losing her job as a parliamentary private secretary (PPS) in Michael Gove’s levelling up department for abstaining on the amendment to spare Paterson’s suspension, only to be reinstated the following day when the government reversed course.

    A Tory aide said the move could encourage other PPSs to rebel against three-line whips, given their excuse would be “well, we thought there would be a U-turn”.'
    “Well, there wasn’t”.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    edited November 5
    Why you should never react to preliminary US economic data:

    https://twitter.com/rortybomb/status/1456603806016413700
    https://twitter.com/BharatRamamurti/status/1456615646289072131

    Back in August people on here were proclaiming the end of the American economy because of weak new job numbers. The numbers have now been revised and the figure is double the initial report making it a very strong month. September is shaping up to have the same level of revision as well.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    So edgy!
  • Boris is "the cockerel who crows while his feet are stuck in shit", according to Charlie Hebdo a few weeks back.

    https://charliehebdo.fr/2021/10/international/royaume-uni-boris-johnson-coq-chante-pieds-merde/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
    Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer

    Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25

    I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
    You need the site inspection by the EMA as well as the dossier review.
    So what's a likely time-scale, in your opinion? How long before these arrive at a GP near you or Kamski?
    Depends how quickly Pfizer file with the EMA but they are not quick. Travel logistics for the site inspection will be tricky as well
    Could you put a figure on it? Sorry to harangue you but you have expertise

    Ten weeks? Twenty?

    The difference could be utterly crucial as cases and deaths begin to rise in Europe
    Not really.

    Pfizer has to file to start the clock. Much of the same data as the FDA but the reports are different

    Then EMA has 180 days to respond with any questions and comments, Pfizer responds to comments and EMA gets 90 days to review responses.

    They also need to get a team of 5-6 inspectors into the US to conduct a site review.

    I’d assume a minimum of 12 weeks from filing even ignoring Christmas when everyone in the sector is already burnt out
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,477
    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    He's not that old. Plenty of time to make lots of money after being PM for many more years, and he'd surely rather be a PM with a length of record to rival Thatcher and Blair, than be down around Brown and May.

    Boris's USP is that he has never lost an election since Oxford. MP, Mayor, MP, Brexit, Leader, ge2019. Imo he will bail rather than risk losing that record, both for ego and for his price on the lecture circuit. Boris will not be voted out, he will walk out on what can at least be spun as his own terms.
    Brexit
    Covid
    A successful COP26 summit

    That's a decent set of results for any PM - it's probably all downhill from here.
    Brexit still not done. As the points being made about it being revived for the next election make clear.
    See my last point - it's all downhill from here.

    Brexit may not be finished (it's going to continue for ever) but there are few obvious gains left that your average voter will see or care about,
    What happened to Brenda?
  • Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    It cannot be worse than August/September 1997.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    Family pornography? Is he talking about stepmom porn?

    The campaign to make it illegal to photograph breastfeeding without consent met an obstacle in the Lords when Lord Wolfson of Tredegar argued it could spoil family pornography. The minister said it would be rough on a man who photographed his wife on the beach “for his own sexual gratification” and “unintentionally” included a woman he didn’t know with her breast out suckling. Wolfson’s holiday snaps must be fascinating.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-diary-dean-chases-his-flock-away-w0kb9jdwj

    This is the most batshit insane thing I have ever heard.
    One does wonder if he thinks it's OK to sort of accidentally in the background snap a lady whose mammaries are out purely for the purpose of getting the vitamin D in.

    I had to check which Wolfson Lord he is, and he's the one in the MoJ, of all places. Interesting.

    I think he was deliberately exploring g edge cases rather than describing an activity he pursues!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    OK some more data to fill in the blanks


    "Pfizer expects to produce more than 180,000 treatment courses by the end of 2021 and at least 50 million more courses in 2022. A spokesperson said Pfizer was expanding capacity and planned to update these numbers in the coming weeks."

    https://www.businessinsider.com/pfizers-covid-19-pill-paxlovid-cuts-hospitalizations-deaths-by-89-2021-11?r=US&IR=T


    It's not gonna arrive in time to save us from a rough European winter
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441
    Quincel said:

    MattW said:

    Quincel said:

    Just huge value on him staying in post. The bar for Tory MPs to turn on a sitting PM with this kind of majority and any poll lead at all is vast.

    Hmmm.

    What's the first likely date for an election? And could he fluff it?

    (When will the boundary commission report, and that be implemented.)
    If Johnson looks like losing an election is he really going to call one early?
    Struck me today that being the incumbent is a bit like winning the toss in cricket. Massive edge in getting to call an election when you fancy it

    The other thing that struck me was Labour’s ‘Make Brexit Work’ would be to align as closely as possible with the EU, most likely inc FOM (Sir Keir’s 100,000 truckers) so it wouldn’t be that much different to 2019, other than them not bothering w a second referendum
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited November 5
    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441
    HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024

    Do any polls have Starmer preferred?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    Selebian said:

    Family pornography? Is he talking about stepmom porn?

    The campaign to make it illegal to photograph breastfeeding without consent met an obstacle in the Lords when Lord Wolfson of Tredegar argued it could spoil family pornography. The minister said it would be rough on a man who photographed his wife on the beach “for his own sexual gratification” and “unintentionally” included a woman he didn’t know with her breast out suckling. Wolfson’s holiday snaps must be fascinating.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-diary-dean-chases-his-flock-away-w0kb9jdwj

    That's a really bizarre (way of making the) argument. There is a discussion about photos in all kinds of settings that happen to include a breastfeeding woman in the background - e.g. family pic in a cafe or whatever and someone is breastfeeding on the next table and how you would make such a law workable given that - but it seems to me that this is a bit of a niche angle.

    I'm going to regret asking this, I think, but is intentionally taking photos of random women breastfeeding a thing? Strikes me there are far easier ways of accessing pictures of a (more exposed) bosom, even buying the Sun, for example (does page 3 still exist?).
    I think the law says the main photo (ie not of the breast feeder) has to be taken for the purpose of sexual gratification.

    I’d assume a woman in a bikini is more titillating to most, but I don’t know what cafes you request
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441
    Selebian said:

    Family pornography? Is he talking about stepmom porn?

    The campaign to make it illegal to photograph breastfeeding without consent met an obstacle in the Lords when Lord Wolfson of Tredegar argued it could spoil family pornography. The minister said it would be rough on a man who photographed his wife on the beach “for his own sexual gratification” and “unintentionally” included a woman he didn’t know with her breast out suckling. Wolfson’s holiday snaps must be fascinating.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-diary-dean-chases-his-flock-away-w0kb9jdwj

    That's a really bizarre (way of making the) argument. There is a discussion about photos in all kinds of settings that happen to include a breastfeeding woman in the background - e.g. family pic in a cafe or whatever and someone is breastfeeding on the next table and how you would make such a law workable given that - but it seems to me that this is a bit of a niche angle.

    I'm going to regret asking this, I think, but is intentionally taking photos of random women breastfeeding a thing? Strikes me there are far easier ways of accessing pictures of a (more exposed) bosom, even buying the Sun, for example (does page 3 still exist?).
    I took dozens exactly a fortnight ago - without asking! #edgy
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Owen Farrell gets the Covid.

    Preparations for these autumn tests are going swimmingly for England.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    @Charles and @MaxPB and @Richard_Nabavi

    You guys know about this stuff. If the FDA and its brethren accelerate approval of the Pfizer drug, how long before they can ramp up production and these pills reach Europe? What's a likely time-scale?

    It feels like Europe - the mainland anyway - is now in a sprint between the winter wave and the arrival of these antivirals

    The site will already have been inspected and approved. Little white pills can be churned out very quickly. It only depends if there is any bespoke equipment needed, which I doubt
    Ta. So it's all about approval. And then they arrive days later? Could be a total game-changer

    Pfizer say they will seek approval in the USA by Thanksgiving: November 25

    I imagine that approval will be miraculously swift, if the pills are as good as they seem. So they *could* be in European mouths by Christmas, if the EMA is as nimble?
    You need the site inspection by the EMA as well as the dossier review.
    So what's a likely time-scale, in your opinion? How long before these arrive at a GP near you or Kamski?
    Depends how quickly Pfizer file with the EMA but they are not quick. Travel logistics for the site inspection will be tricky as well
    Could you put a figure on it? Sorry to harangue you but you have expertise

    Ten weeks? Twenty?

    The difference could be utterly crucial as cases and deaths begin to rise in Europe
    Not really.

    Pfizer has to file to start the clock. Much of the same data as the FDA but the reports are different

    Then EMA has 180 days to respond with any questions and comments, Pfizer responds to comments and EMA gets 90 days to review responses.

    They also need to get a team of 5-6 inspectors into the US to conduct a site review.

    I’d assume a minimum of 12 weeks from filing even ignoring Christmas when everyone in the sector is already burnt out
    Yes, see my other comment. "180,000 courses" by the end of 2021 is not going to save us from winter.

    Looks like Spring 2022 at the earliest for these pills to have a serious influence on events. But still, they are on the way
  • HYUFD said:

    The latest polling still has the Tories comfortably winning most seats and most polls still have Boris preferred as PM to Starmer.

    Unless that changes, Boris will survive up to 2024. Plus of course the longer he stays as PM the more his valued on the lecture circuit increases post Premiership. If he wants to be in the Blair and Thatcher league of speakers and earning millions on the lecture circuit he needs to be there for a decade at least

    Anything out since Yougov ? That forecasts a hung parliament.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING - No10 announce Boris Johnson will refuse to declare how much his freebie Spanish holiday at Zac Goldsmith's villa was worth. Story incoming
    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1456595675177787398

    I don’t think this story cuts through.

    People know what corruption is. And that ain’t it.
    It is shitty though. It's not hard or complex to be open and transparent. People pretend its complex to avoid it.
  • Alistair said:

    Owen Farrell gets the Covid.

    Preparations for these autumn tests are going swimmingly for England.

    We're making sure we don't peak too soon for the Six Nations.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    isam said:

    Selebian said:

    Family pornography? Is he talking about stepmom porn?

    The campaign to make it illegal to photograph breastfeeding without consent met an obstacle in the Lords when Lord Wolfson of Tredegar argued it could spoil family pornography. The minister said it would be rough on a man who photographed his wife on the beach “for his own sexual gratification” and “unintentionally” included a woman he didn’t know with her breast out suckling. Wolfson’s holiday snaps must be fascinating.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-diary-dean-chases-his-flock-away-w0kb9jdwj

    That's a really bizarre (way of making the) argument. There is a discussion about photos in all kinds of settings that happen to include a breastfeeding woman in the background - e.g. family pic in a cafe or whatever and someone is breastfeeding on the next table and how you would make such a law workable given that - but it seems to me that this is a bit of a niche angle.

    I'm going to regret asking this, I think, but is intentionally taking photos of random women breastfeeding a thing? Strikes me there are far easier ways of accessing pictures of a (more exposed) bosom, even buying the Sun, for example (does page 3 still exist?).
    I took dozens exactly a fortnight ago - without asking! #edgy
    Presumably not random women…?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    He's not that old. Plenty of time to make lots of money after being PM for many more years, and he'd surely rather be a PM with a length of record to rival Thatcher and Blair, than be down around Brown and May.

    Boris's USP is that he has never lost an election since Oxford. MP, Mayor, MP, Brexit, Leader, ge2019. Imo he will bail rather than risk losing that record, both for ego and for his price on the lecture circuit. Boris will not be voted out, he will walk out on what can at least be spun as his own terms.
    Brexit
    Covid
    A successful COP26 summit

    That's a decent set of results for any PM - it's probably all downhill from here.
    Brexit still not done. As the points being made about it being revived for the next election make clear.
    See my last point - it's all downhill from here.

    Brexit may not be finished (it's going to continue for ever) but there are few obvious gains left that your average voter will see or care about,
    What happened to Brenda?
    She seems to have lasted the night.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    It cannot be worse than August/September 1997.
    Oh, it will be a lot worse than 1997, and the story will run daily for months until the King’s coronation.

    The closest parallel in our lifetimes is probably 9/11.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,701
    edited November 5
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    Two or three days only, I suspect, given the adverse reaction to DoE-deathfest, followed by days of Diana-like coverage, enlivened only by yet another row over where Harry and Meghan get to sit at the funeral service.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    He's not that old. Plenty of time to make lots of money after being PM for many more years, and he'd surely rather be a PM with a length of record to rival Thatcher and Blair, than be down around Brown and May.

    Boris's USP is that he has never lost an election since Oxford. MP, Mayor, MP, Brexit, Leader, ge2019. Imo he will bail rather than risk losing that record, both for ego and for his price on the lecture circuit. Boris will not be voted out, he will walk out on what can at least be spun as his own terms.
    Brexit
    Covid
    A successful COP26 summit

    That's a decent set of results for any PM - it's probably all downhill from here.
    Brexit still not done. As the points being made about it being revived for the next election make clear.
    See my last point - it's all downhill from here.

    Brexit may not be finished (it's going to continue for ever) but there are few obvious gains left that your average voter will see or care about,
    What happened to Brenda?
    She seems to have lasted the night.
    Are you thinking of George V?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    It cannot be worse than August/September 1997.
    I think you'll be surprised.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806
    isam said:

    Selebian said:

    Family pornography? Is he talking about stepmom porn?

    The campaign to make it illegal to photograph breastfeeding without consent met an obstacle in the Lords when Lord Wolfson of Tredegar argued it could spoil family pornography. The minister said it would be rough on a man who photographed his wife on the beach “for his own sexual gratification” and “unintentionally” included a woman he didn’t know with her breast out suckling. Wolfson’s holiday snaps must be fascinating.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-diary-dean-chases-his-flock-away-w0kb9jdwj

    That's a really bizarre (way of making the) argument. There is a discussion about photos in all kinds of settings that happen to include a breastfeeding woman in the background - e.g. family pic in a cafe or whatever and someone is breastfeeding on the next table and how you would make such a law workable given that - but it seems to me that this is a bit of a niche angle.

    I'm going to regret asking this, I think, but is intentionally taking photos of random women breastfeeding a thing? Strikes me there are far easier ways of accessing pictures of a (more exposed) bosom, even buying the Sun, for example (does page 3 still exist?).
    I took dozens exactly a fortnight ago - without asking! #edgy
    Well, 'family porn' exception :wink:

    I'd missed the news, if announced - but that means you are a father then? Congratulations if so. Hope all went smoothly.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,786
    edited November 5
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    It cannot be worse than August/September 1997.
    I think you'll be surprised.
    Bugger.

    If I'm editing PB at the time of HMQ's death I will simply headline the piece with 'The man who wished to be a tampon inside Camilla Parker-Bowles is our new unelected ruler' then switch off my router and go into conclave with my music collection for a month.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,449

    /

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    Two or three days only, I suspect, given the adverse reaction to DoE-deathfest, followed by days of Diana-like coverage, enlivened only by yet another row over where Harry and Meghan get to sit at the funeral service.
    You could also add the poor sods wearing gasmasks clearing away the mould-saturated heaps of flowers still in their wrapping outside the relevant palace. Definitely one for the Tony Robinson TV series on employment in history.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    He's not that old. Plenty of time to make lots of money after being PM for many more years, and he'd surely rather be a PM with a length of record to rival Thatcher and Blair, than be down around Brown and May.

    Boris's USP is that he has never lost an election since Oxford. MP, Mayor, MP, Brexit, Leader, ge2019. Imo he will bail rather than risk losing that record, both for ego and for his price on the lecture circuit. Boris will not be voted out, he will walk out on what can at least be spun as his own terms.
    Brexit
    Covid
    A successful COP26 summit

    That's a decent set of results for any PM - it's probably all downhill from here.
    Brexit still not done. As the points being made about it being revived for the next election make clear.
    See my last point - it's all downhill from here.

    Brexit may not be finished (it's going to continue for ever) but there are few obvious gains left that your average voter will see or care about,
    What happened to Brenda?
    She seems to have lasted the night.
    Are you thinking of George V?
    Didn't know he was called Brenda.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,701

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    It cannot be worse than August/September 1997.
    "She was the People's Queen..."
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    He's not that old. Plenty of time to make lots of money after being PM for many more years, and he'd surely rather be a PM with a length of record to rival Thatcher and Blair, than be down around Brown and May.

    Boris's USP is that he has never lost an election since Oxford. MP, Mayor, MP, Brexit, Leader, ge2019. Imo he will bail rather than risk losing that record, both for ego and for his price on the lecture circuit. Boris will not be voted out, he will walk out on what can at least be spun as his own terms.
    Brexit
    Covid
    A successful COP26 summit

    That's a decent set of results for any PM - it's probably all downhill from here.
    Brexit still not done. As the points being made about it being revived for the next election make clear.
    See my last point - it's all downhill from here.

    Brexit may not be finished (it's going to continue for ever) but there are few obvious gains left that your average voter will see or care about,
    What happened to Brenda?
    She seems to have lasted the night.
    Are you thinking of George V?
    Didn't know he was called Brenda.
    https://www.britannica.com/story/how-did-king-george-v-really-die
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,080

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    It cannot be worse than August/September 1997.
    "She was the People's Queen..."
    Well, yes. What other kind is there?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    I'm sure every bit of it tasteful:)
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    It cannot be worse than August/September 1997.
    "She was the People's Queen..."
    Well, yes. What other kind is there?
    The queen bee?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,177
    Family porn man


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,449

    Family porn man


    Probably quite unfair of me, but I'm irresistibly reminded of a comment once made to me by an old university colleague of mine, now a peer. He was impressed by the depth of experience of often very specialist subjects that the assembled peers from a wide range of backgrounds could bring to bear on a debate on almost any topic.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Time-scale for the Wunderpill arrival in Britain:


    "Under deals announced out in October, the UK expects to receive 480,000 doses of molnupiravir later this year, with 250,000 courses of paxlovid due in late January. Paxlovid is a combination of an antiviral drug with ritonavir, a drug usually used to treat HIV/Aids."


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/05/pfizer-covid-pills-highly-effective-at-preventing-deaths-trial-suggests


    They then have to get pumped out to GPs and we need to set up a system whereby people get tested and then get these tablets straight after, if positive. So again it will likely be Spring before we see anything. HMG should be organising this NOW. Likewise governments everywhere

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,177
    Lol


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    It cannot be worse than August/September 1997.
    I think you'll be surprised.
    Bugger.

    If I'm editing PB at the time of HMQ's death I will simply headline the piece with 'The man who wished to be a tampon inside Camilla Parker-Bowles is our new unelected ruler' then switch off my router and go into conclave with my music collection for a month.
    I do hope there’s sufficient plans in place, for what happens if London Bridge were to fall during the latter stages of a general election campaign? The famous Guardian article from a few years ago, never mentioned that eventuality.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited November 5
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    It cannot be worse than August/September 1997.
    I think you'll be surprised.
    Bugger.

    If I'm editing PB at the time of HMQ's death I will simply headline the piece with 'The man who wished to be a tampon inside Camilla Parker-Bowles is our new unelected ruler' then switch off my router and go into conclave with my music collection for a month.
    I do hope there’s sufficient plans in place, for what happens if London Bridge were to fall during the latter stages of a general election campaign? The famous Guardian article from a few years ago, never mentioned that eventuality.
    The funeral would likely be after the general election and while Charles would take over his coronation would still not take place for months.

    Remember Diana died shortly after the 1997 general election, George Vth died a month after the 1935 general election
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    Today the Queen is 1 day older than Robert Mugabe reached.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,406

    Family porn man


    I think it's safe to assume that nobody will be pleasuring themselves over that photo.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,637

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    It cannot be worse than August/September 1997.
    So no third version of Candle in the Wind.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,634
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    It cannot be worse than August/September 1997.
    I think you'll be surprised.
    Bugger.

    If I'm editing PB at the time of HMQ's death I will simply headline the piece with 'The man who wished to be a tampon inside Camilla Parker-Bowles is our new unelected ruler' then switch off my router and go into conclave with my music collection for a month.
    I do hope there’s sufficient plans in place, for what happens if London Bridge were to fall during the latter stages of a general election campaign? The famous Guardian article from a few years ago, never mentioned that eventuality.
    That's described in the legislation, search for "demise of the crown"

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Further thought. The arrival, we hope, of an extremely effective treatment for Covid-19, vindicates - potentially - the countries which have gone for Zero Covid. If they can just hold out for a few more months, they will be able to relax all restrictions knowing that the vast majority of people are now safe, because of the antivirals

    They will have avoided mass deaths and suffering, albeit at the expense of rigorous lockdowns, isolation and quarantines
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not been paying much attention to the news for a couple of days, my wife just turned around looking shocked, and asked me if Blair had died?

    Took a few moments to work out that it was a veteran entertainer in his 90s who had died, rather than the former prime minister!

    Is this bad taste, or a fitting tribute? From the Football team whatsapp, probably the least offensive post I’ve seen on it for a while


    That’s funny. I think the general rule with these things, is that they’re okay if the person involved has batted a good innings and not died a horrible or untimely death.
    Good to know. I've got a shitload of The Queen material ready to go.
    The Queen is definitely fair game when she departs, but you and I are quite likely outnumbered in that view and are probably best advised to wait until after the funeral before making jokes about her.

    The ten days of London Bridge, are going to be like nothing any of us have known before.
    It cannot be worse than August/September 1997.
    I think you'll be surprised.
    Bugger.

    If I'm editing PB at the time of HMQ's death I will simply headline the piece with 'The man who wished to be a tampon inside Camilla Parker-Bowles is our new unelected ruler' then switch off my router and go into conclave with my music collection for a month.
    I do hope there’s sufficient plans in place, for what happens if London Bridge were to fall during the latter stages of a general election campaign? The famous Guardian article from a few years ago, never mentioned that eventuality.
    That's described in the legislation, search for "demise of the crown"

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14
    Thanks. So time effectively stops for 14 days, and the election will take place two weeks after it was initially scheduled,
This discussion has been closed.