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Starmer’s successor looks set to be one of these three – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,239
    DavidL said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Well the gaps on my CV are too great for potential employers to stomach.

    Until that changes I'll be unemployed during a period of "full employment"
    Well then keep trying until you find an employer who is willing to stomach it. Many companies are doing so deliberately right now.

    If you've given up I see no reason the state should pay you not to be looking though.
    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.
    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Well the gaps on my CV are too great for potential employers to stomach.

    Until that changes I'll be unemployed during a period of "full employment"
    Well then keep trying until you find an employer who is willing to stomach it. Many companies are doing so deliberately right now.

    If you've given up I see no reason the state should pay you not to be looking though.
    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.
    Two possibilities here. One is that this is an appalling comment you should be ashamed of. The other is FFS speak to someone, anyone, and get the help and support you need.

    If it’s the latter you have my very best wishes and prayers, seriously.
    I would add that a very good friend of mine went through a horrendous time - ended up sectioned semi-voluntarily. Despite the resulting employment history, he now has a good job and has rebuilt his life. It took time and a lot of effort, but it can be done.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,484
    dixiedean said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Some people are physically and/or mentally incapable of work. They really are. They're not malingerers. Indeed many may have worked for years or decades before becoming incapable of work. But shit happens. The fact you don't care is not an appealing trait.
    For anyone else, they should be given the support to get back to work.

    Everyone should be given support to get back to work.
    However, this sector has been butchered over 11 years. Replaced with hectoring, threats and sanctions. And professional specialists employed by the DWP replaced by grant farming unqualified chancers.
    A labour shortage is what you sow for a decade of total disregard of, and contempt for basic employment skills training.

    I, Daniel Blake. Essential viewing for anybody with a heart and an ounce of compassion. Yes, it's fiction, but it resonates powerfully with people who've been through the DWP hoops if you talk to them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,235
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    What will be the effect on the practical lives of Brits if the Queen does die? I knwo there will be official mourning but what does that mean beside a lot of Nicolas Witchell and everyone looking really sad on TV ? Will shops shut ,cinemas close etc?

    The plans are known in detail.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge

    But at its most basic, even if you are a royalist, avoid television for two weeks. And on the day probably several things will close early, but most not I suspect. So practical effect looks like not that much.

    And I don't think there's an 'If' about it.
    The London Bridge plans might have been revised after complaints about DofE RIP overkill.
    The lesson ought to have been, wall to wall on one channel, something else to watch on the others.

    Whether they are bright enough to have worked that out is another matter
    Exactly. Completely overdoing the forced mourning would be the most effective way of furthering the cause of Republicanism.

    A day off for the funeral would probably go down reasonably well.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,760
    edited October 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If you can't be bothered to wear a mask then I don't have a lot of sympathy for you tbh, on TfL services it is required and part of the conditions of carriage, so unless you're legitimately exempt, then I stand by calling people either liars or lazy

    i was on the tube and DLR yesterday and did not wear a mask and neither did about 60% . People really dont like them
    Of course they don't like them! Masks are horrible things, and I'll throw a party when I get to burn mine.

    But given the way that Covid accumulates in enclosed spaces with lots of people (and remember that probably the most dangerous job on a deaths per hour of work was bus driver), it's common courtesy to wear them on crowded public transport. Just as it's common courtesy to cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze.
    Given covid is no more fatal than flu at the moment (1 in 50 has it this week but only about 200 deaths ) then did you wear one pre covid because flu has always been here? time to move on and stop obsessing about it - just doing my bit for that
    That's a little misleading, don't you think? The people most likely to have Covid right now are in the 5 to 15 age range, and they're highly unlikely to die of it. (Which, by the way, is great as it means it'll run through this cohort, and then remove a major vector of transmission.)

    The people I'm with on the tube are highly likely to be a lot older, and therefore to have a much higher CFR.

    I think wearing a mask in settings where there is substantially higher risk that I'll infect other people is common courtesy. It's not something I'd legally require (and if the tube wasn't busy I probably wouldn't worry), but I do try to avoid causing pain and suffering to my fellow man as a general rule, even if it involves some small discomfort for a 20 minute tube ride.
    Quite a good Times article by Parris on Saturday. He's a mask skeptic but was bemoaning the fact that unless something is law people tend to not do it. We lack the necessary social will to do the right thing if it's only advised, hence making the legal route more probable when it really shouldn't be necessary. Me, I just wear a mask if most others are. Bit lazy, and not quite what Parris was getting at, but that's my MO on this one.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    DavidL said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Well the gaps on my CV are too great for potential employers to stomach.

    Until that changes I'll be unemployed during a period of "full employment"
    Well then keep trying until you find an employer who is willing to stomach it. Many companies are doing so deliberately right now.

    If you've given up I see no reason the state should pay you not to be looking though.
    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.
    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Well the gaps on my CV are too great for potential employers to stomach.

    Until that changes I'll be unemployed during a period of "full employment"
    Well then keep trying until you find an employer who is willing to stomach it. Many companies are doing so deliberately right now.

    If you've given up I see no reason the state should pay you not to be looking though.
    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.
    Two possibilities here. One is that this is an appalling comment you should be ashamed of. The other is FFS speak to someone, anyone, and get the help and support you need.

    If it’s the latter you have my very best wishes and prayers, seriously.
    To be honest it's probably somewhere in the middle of your binary options.

    I'm simply not brave enough to take my own life so I shouldn't have posted that comment.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,045
    JBriskin3 said:

    DavidL said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Well the gaps on my CV are too great for potential employers to stomach.

    Until that changes I'll be unemployed during a period of "full employment"
    Well then keep trying until you find an employer who is willing to stomach it. Many companies are doing so deliberately right now.

    If you've given up I see no reason the state should pay you not to be looking though.
    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.
    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Well the gaps on my CV are too great for potential employers to stomach.

    Until that changes I'll be unemployed during a period of "full employment"
    Well then keep trying until you find an employer who is willing to stomach it. Many companies are doing so deliberately right now.

    If you've given up I see no reason the state should pay you not to be looking though.
    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.
    Two possibilities here. One is that this is an appalling comment you should be ashamed of. The other is FFS speak to someone, anyone, and get the help and support you need.

    If it’s the latter you have my very best wishes and prayers, seriously.
    To be honest it's probably somewhere in the middle of your binary options.

    I'm simply not brave enough to take my own life so I shouldn't have posted that comment.
    Really, seek help. Speaking to someone disinterested really helps. I have a friend who works for the Samaritans. It works. Don’t be alone with this.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,808
    edited October 2021

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    I suggest you read up on things like the Employment and Support Allowance which is being phased into Universal Credit before making ignorant comments like that.
    Yes and the ESA element if you have a limited capability for work is at a different rate to the generic UC for anyone else.

    So if you wish for that to be raise higher then that's an argument to be made, but there's absolutely no reason to do so for everyone else who already get a lower rate than that.
    If you have limited capability for work (LCW) since April 2017 you get the standard rate of UC.

    You need to meet much tighter criteria to qualify for the confusingly named 'limited capability for work related activity' (LCWRA) to get the additional UC allowance.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,338
    FT Exclusive: @EmmanuelMacron warns Boris Johnson the UK’s international “credibility” is on the line in the Brexit disputes over fishing rights and Northern Ireland.

    “Make no mistake, it is not just for the Europeans but all of their partners.”


    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1454161965450924036
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Farooq said:

    Charles said:

    kinabalu said:

    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    To be honest, an all woman shortlist might be the only way Labour elects a female leader. And even then I'm not convinced that they wouldn't mess it up!

    Would physically-male-candidates-who-self-identify-as-women* be allowed to stand

    * genuine question - am so confused by the right words now… there must be a snappier way of describing someone like that?
    Transwomen.

    Sorry to hear about the confusion over words. I'm sure it's nothing. Did you get your 8 hours last night?
    I start from the position of not wishing to inadvertently cause offence. As the topic is so fast moving and controversial and I don’t really care enough to follow it in detail I didn’t want to make a mistake
    Me too. I do it deliberately.
    On occasion, and judiciously, yes. But you need to be careful it doesn’t become a habit
  • kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If you can't be bothered to wear a mask then I don't have a lot of sympathy for you tbh, on TfL services it is required and part of the conditions of carriage, so unless you're legitimately exempt, then I stand by calling people either liars or lazy

    i was on the tube and DLR yesterday and did not wear a mask and neither did about 60% . People really dont like them
    Of course they don't like them! Masks are horrible things, and I'll throw a party when I get to burn mine.

    But given the way that Covid accumulates in enclosed spaces with lots of people (and remember that probably the most dangerous job on a deaths per hour of work was bus driver), it's common courtesy to wear them on crowded public transport. Just as it's common courtesy to cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze.
    Given covid is no more fatal than flu at the moment (1 in 50 has it this week but only about 200 deaths ) then did you wear one pre covid because flu has always been here? time to move on and stop obsessing about it - just doing my bit for that
    That's a little misleading, don't you think? The people most likely to have Covid right now are in the 5 to 15 age range, and they're highly unlikely to die of it. (Which, by the way, is great as it means it'll run through this cohort, and then remove a major vector of transmission.)

    The people I'm with on the tube are highly likely to be a lot older, and therefore to have a much higher CFR.

    I think wearing a mask in settings where there is substantially higher risk that I'll infect other people is common courtesy. It's not something I'd legally require (and if the tube wasn't busy I probably wouldn't worry), but I do try to avoid causing pain and suffering to my fellow man as a general rule, even if it involves some small discomfort for a 20 minute tube ride.
    Quite a good Times article by Parris on Saturday. He's a mask skeptic but was bemoaning the fact that unless something is law people tend to not do it. We lack the necessary social will to do the right thing if it's only advised, hence making the legal route more probable when it really shouldn't be necessary. Me, I just wear a mask if most others are. Bit lazy, and not quite what Parris was getting at, but that's my MO on this one.
    I get people who genuinely think wearing a mask helps with covid (or it is worth the miserable existence it promotes) even if i have the opposite view but really dont get when people dont wear masks but actually want the government to tell them they have to ! That makes me actually depressed with society
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The GOp have done an amzing job in North Virginia.

    They found their message (It is vital that we ban books in school libraries) and have hammered it over the closing month.

    https://twitter.com/jameshohmann/status/1454088492909096963
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,045

    DavidL said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Well the gaps on my CV are too great for potential employers to stomach.

    Until that changes I'll be unemployed during a period of "full employment"
    Well then keep trying until you find an employer who is willing to stomach it. Many companies are doing so deliberately right now.

    If you've given up I see no reason the state should pay you not to be looking though.
    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.
    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Well the gaps on my CV are too great for potential employers to stomach.

    Until that changes I'll be unemployed during a period of "full employment"
    Well then keep trying until you find an employer who is willing to stomach it. Many companies are doing so deliberately right now.

    If you've given up I see no reason the state should pay you not to be looking though.
    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.
    Two possibilities here. One is that this is an appalling comment you should be ashamed of. The other is FFS speak to someone, anyone, and get the help and support you need.

    If it’s the latter you have my very best wishes and prayers, seriously.
    I would add that a very good friend of mine went through a horrendous time - ended up sectioned semi-voluntarily. Despite the resulting employment history, he now has a good job and has rebuilt his life. It took time and a lot of effort, but it can be done.
    Well of course it can. But some don’t make it. Too many. It is not something to take lightly.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,573
    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:



    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.

    I’m really sorry to hear of your circs. Genuinely there are places to get help with gaining employment. And have you thought of volunteering in the interim? Apologies if this comes across patronising, but please ask for help.
    My Psychiatrist is organising Occupational Therapy for me.
    That's good. I have a close relative who went through a long period of anxiety and depression, and I know how horrible it is - but she came out of it and now has a decent life.

    I don't think all employers would rule out taking someone with long gaps in their employment - I've known of people with periods of mental illness who found work as well as ex-prisoners. Basically the employer needs to feel it's in the past.

    But also, there's more to life than work. An indirect route back to a more contented situation can be simply an interest.

    In any case good luck, and come here and chat about anything.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    You may have noticed that we have spent a shit load in the last 18 months? Taxes were going to have to rise. It appears to be reasonably broad based and some good other measures
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    Leon said:

    Nice of the French to confirm what Remainers once tried to deny

    “French PM Jean Castex has sent a letter to Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission’s president, to notify her of Paris’ planned reprisals against the UK in the fish war. Castex asks for support because the EU needs to show ‘leaving the Union is more damaging than remaining in it’.”


    https://twitter.com/barnes_joe/status/1454110348005490693?s=21

    Not sure this tete a tete is a vindication of LEAVE given these arguments naturally occur between rival organisations/countries or people- Its the act of leaving and pitting ourselves against France that causes it not the fact that the French are wrong or evil or petty .Since the year dot rivals have arguments and seek revenge .
    Sure. And I agree. And actually the French have a logical point, tho they are possibly foolish to make it explicit

    My argument is different. I’m talking about the notorious Barnier quite in Le Figaro when he said “my job is to make Brexit so painful the British will regret voting Leave”

    It was picked up by leavers as proof of the EU’s
    Mafia mentality. Then Remainers spent a long time arguing that he’d never said it, or his words had been twisted, blah blah, the usual bollocks

    Well here’s the French PM saying it all over again. In an official letter (if the quote is accurate and it hasn’t been denied)

    We really are better off out. What if you are an EU-sceptic in an EU country NOW? You are now fully aware the EU is a gang which seeks to hurt those who want to leave. Nasty
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Mr Briskin please seek help. Pills can tide a soul over the worst
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:



    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.

    I’m really sorry to hear of your circs. Genuinely there are places to get help with gaining employment. And have you thought of volunteering in the interim? Apologies if this comes across patronising, but please ask for help.
    My Psychiatrist is organising Occupational Therapy for me.
    That's good. I have a close relative who went through a long period of anxiety and depression, and I know how horrible it is - but she came out of it and now has a decent life.

    I don't think all employers would rule out taking someone with long gaps in their employment - I've known of people with periods of mental illness who found work as well as ex-prisoners. Basically the employer needs to feel it's in the past.

    But also, there's more to life than work. An indirect route back to a more contented situation can be simply an interest.

    In any case good luck, and come here and chat about anything.
    Thanks Nick
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,688

    Leon said:

    Nice of the French to confirm what Remainers once tried to deny

    “French PM Jean Castex has sent a letter to Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission’s president, to notify her of Paris’ planned reprisals against the UK in the fish war. Castex asks for support because the EU needs to show ‘leaving the Union is more damaging than remaining in it’.”


    https://twitter.com/barnes_joe/status/1454110348005490693?s=21

    Not sure this tete a tete is a vindication of LEAVE given these arguments naturally occur between rival organisations/countries or people- Its the act of leaving and pitting ourselves against France that causes it not the fact that the French are wrong or evil or petty .Since the year dot rivals have arguments and seek revenge .
    Macron has discovered that a manufactured spat with the Brits makes it look like he's standing up for the French ahead of next year's election. He's a little bit like Tony Blair, only without any of the redeeming characteristics.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I see Ms Dick of the Yard is wanting to add to doom and gloom (as if covid is not enough ) by saying Londoners shoudl be "alert " to a terrorist threat this Christmas . I mean is this really necessary ? You know, make people thing they could be blown up /shot or stabbed as they go Christmas Shopping - for no reason- because lets face it how alert do you have to be to avoid a terrorist attack? - you just need to be lucky or not unlucky . The police and intelligence service should be alert , shoppers not so unless we really want to live in a society where everything causes anxiety due to needing to be "alert"

    Those Brazilian electricians need keeping in line
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,484
    edited October 2021
    JBriskin3 said:

    Calm down people.

    My grandma was generous on my birthday so I'll have enough beer money till xmas which will keep me happy enough for now. And I'll be here posting on most days till then.

    You'll have to post every day, not most days. Even if it's just to say hello. As soon as you miss a day, there'll be collective anxiety given your soul-baring this evening.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    pigeon said:

    Queen advised to rest for at least the next fortnight by the doctors.

    London Bridge is going to fall down soon isn't it?

    Quite possibly not, although if this turns into a permanent physical decline that limits her ability to discharge her role then the time will have come for retirement.

    If the Queen point blank refuses to abdicate then that's no barrier: the mechanism exists to declare a Regency.
    I'm going to ask Shadsy to put up a market on who the Regent shall be.

    My money will be going on Boris Johnson.
    When my mentor was still alive he was chairman of the Regency Council, of which ++Runcie and the Prince of Wales were the other members
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,688

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If you can't be bothered to wear a mask then I don't have a lot of sympathy for you tbh, on TfL services it is required and part of the conditions of carriage, so unless you're legitimately exempt, then I stand by calling people either liars or lazy

    i was on the tube and DLR yesterday and did not wear a mask and neither did about 60% . People really dont like them
    Of course they don't like them! Masks are horrible things, and I'll throw a party when I get to burn mine.

    But given the way that Covid accumulates in enclosed spaces with lots of people (and remember that probably the most dangerous job on a deaths per hour of work was bus driver), it's common courtesy to wear them on crowded public transport. Just as it's common courtesy to cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze.
    Given covid is no more fatal than flu at the moment (1 in 50 has it this week but only about 200 deaths ) then did you wear one pre covid because flu has always been here? time to move on and stop obsessing about it - just doing my bit for that
    That's a little misleading, don't you think? The people most likely to have Covid right now are in the 5 to 15 age range, and they're highly unlikely to die of it. (Which, by the way, is great as it means it'll run through this cohort, and then remove a major vector of transmission.)

    The people I'm with on the tube are highly likely to be a lot older, and therefore to have a much higher CFR.

    I think wearing a mask in settings where there is substantially higher risk that I'll infect other people is common courtesy. It's not something I'd legally require (and if the tube wasn't busy I probably wouldn't worry), but I do try to avoid causing pain and suffering to my fellow man as a general rule, even if it involves some small discomfort for a 20 minute tube ride.
    Quite a good Times article by Parris on Saturday. He's a mask skeptic but was bemoaning the fact that unless something is law people tend to not do it. We lack the necessary social will to do the right thing if it's only advised, hence making the legal route more probable when it really shouldn't be necessary. Me, I just wear a mask if most others are. Bit lazy, and not quite what Parris was getting at, but that's my MO on this one.
    I get people who genuinely think wearing a mask helps with covid (or it is worth the miserable existence it promotes) even if i have the opposite view but really dont get when people dont wear masks but actually want the government to tell them they have to ! That makes me actually depressed with society
    You do know that there's quite a lot of academic research that's been published during the last 18 months on masks and Covid, right?

    It's perfectly sensible (and probably correct) to say that the negative effects of masks in many circumstances outweigh the benefits. But it's incorrect to say that masks don't (a) reduce the spread of Covid in general, and (b) result in people who do catch it getting smaller viral loads.

  • JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    I suggest you read up on things like the Employment and Support Allowance which is being phased into Universal Credit before making ignorant comments like that.
    Yes and the ESA element if you have a limited capability for work is at a different rate to the generic UC for anyone else.

    So if you wish for that to be raise higher then that's an argument to be made, but there's absolutely no reason to do so for everyone else who already get a lower rate than that.
    If you have limited capability for work (LCW) since April 2017 you get the standard rate of UC.

    You need to meet much tighter criteria to qualify for the confusingly named 'limited capability for work related activity' (LCWRA) to get the additional UC allowance.
    Then anyone not meeting the LCWRA criteria should be looking for work.

    Its good for your mental health as well as your finances to be working.
  • FT Exclusive: @EmmanuelMacron warns Boris Johnson the UK’s international “credibility” is on the line in the Brexit disputes over fishing rights and Northern Ireland.

    “Make no mistake, it is not just for the Europeans but all of their partners.”


    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1454161965450924036

    Trying to bring both issues together

    They must be hurting that we left
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,045
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Nice of the French to confirm what Remainers once tried to deny

    “French PM Jean Castex has sent a letter to Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission’s president, to notify her of Paris’ planned reprisals against the UK in the fish war. Castex asks for support because the EU needs to show ‘leaving the Union is more damaging than remaining in it’.”


    https://twitter.com/barnes_joe/status/1454110348005490693?s=21

    Not sure this tete a tete is a vindication of LEAVE given these arguments naturally occur between rival organisations/countries or people- Its the act of leaving and pitting ourselves against France that causes it not the fact that the French are wrong or evil or petty .Since the year dot rivals have arguments and seek revenge .
    Macron has discovered that a manufactured spat with the Brits makes it look like he's standing up for the French ahead of next year's election. He's a little bit like Tony Blair, only without any of the redeeming characteristics.
    Wow. Harsh.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,597

    FT Exclusive: @EmmanuelMacron warns Boris Johnson the UK’s international “credibility” is on the line in the Brexit disputes over fishing rights and Northern Ireland.

    “Make no mistake, it is not just for the Europeans but all of their partners.”


    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1454161965450924036

    Yeah, I don't think countries give two shits about fishing disputes. Though they might well pretend to.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    JBriskin3 said:

    Calm down people.

    My grandma was generous on my birthday so I'll have enough beer money till xmas which will keep me happy enough for now. And I'll be here posting on most days till then.

    You'll have to post every day, not most days. Even if it's just to say hello. As soon as you miss a day, there'll be collective anxiety given your soul-baring this evening.
    I certainly try my best with that one.
  • rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If you can't be bothered to wear a mask then I don't have a lot of sympathy for you tbh, on TfL services it is required and part of the conditions of carriage, so unless you're legitimately exempt, then I stand by calling people either liars or lazy

    i was on the tube and DLR yesterday and did not wear a mask and neither did about 60% . People really dont like them
    Of course they don't like them! Masks are horrible things, and I'll throw a party when I get to burn mine.

    But given the way that Covid accumulates in enclosed spaces with lots of people (and remember that probably the most dangerous job on a deaths per hour of work was bus driver), it's common courtesy to wear them on crowded public transport. Just as it's common courtesy to cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze.
    Given covid is no more fatal than flu at the moment (1 in 50 has it this week but only about 200 deaths ) then did you wear one pre covid because flu has always been here? time to move on and stop obsessing about it - just doing my bit for that
    That's a little misleading, don't you think? The people most likely to have Covid right now are in the 5 to 15 age range, and they're highly unlikely to die of it. (Which, by the way, is great as it means it'll run through this cohort, and then remove a major vector of transmission.)

    The people I'm with on the tube are highly likely to be a lot older, and therefore to have a much higher CFR.

    I think wearing a mask in settings where there is substantially higher risk that I'll infect other people is common courtesy. It's not something I'd legally require (and if the tube wasn't busy I probably wouldn't worry), but I do try to avoid causing pain and suffering to my fellow man as a general rule, even if it involves some small discomfort for a 20 minute tube ride.
    Quite a good Times article by Parris on Saturday. He's a mask skeptic but was bemoaning the fact that unless something is law people tend to not do it. We lack the necessary social will to do the right thing if it's only advised, hence making the legal route more probable when it really shouldn't be necessary. Me, I just wear a mask if most others are. Bit lazy, and not quite what Parris was getting at, but that's my MO on this one.
    I get people who genuinely think wearing a mask helps with covid (or it is worth the miserable existence it promotes) even if i have the opposite view but really dont get when people dont wear masks but actually want the government to tell them they have to ! That makes me actually depressed with society
    You do know that there's quite a lot of academic research that's been published during the last 18 months on masks and Covid, right?

    It's perfectly sensible (and probably correct) to say that the negative effects of masks in many circumstances outweigh the benefits. But it's incorrect to say that masks don't (a) reduce the spread of Covid in general, and (b) result in people who do catch it getting smaller viral loads.

    The neutral, academic research I've seen into mask mandates (as opposed to masks) show a negligible impact on Covid.

    Funnily enough having a load of people walking around with masks around their necks doesn't do much to stop the spread.
  • Charles said:

    You may have noticed that we have spent a shit load in the last 18 months? Taxes were going to have to rise. It appears to be reasonably broad based and some good other measures
    Though the Chancellor did mention billions (as in spending more of them on just about everything ) about 55 times in the speech - hardly cutting down the debt is it?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,338
    kle4 said:

    FT Exclusive: @EmmanuelMacron warns Boris Johnson the UK’s international “credibility” is on the line in the Brexit disputes over fishing rights and Northern Ireland.

    “Make no mistake, it is not just for the Europeans but all of their partners.”


    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1454161965450924036

    Yeah, I don't think countries give two shits about fishing disputes. Though they might well pretend to.
    Perhaps what he means is that if we give in to them, no-one else will take us seriously.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,239
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Well the gaps on my CV are too great for potential employers to stomach.

    Until that changes I'll be unemployed during a period of "full employment"
    Well then keep trying until you find an employer who is willing to stomach it. Many companies are doing so deliberately right now.

    If you've given up I see no reason the state should pay you not to be looking though.
    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.
    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Well the gaps on my CV are too great for potential employers to stomach.

    Until that changes I'll be unemployed during a period of "full employment"
    Well then keep trying until you find an employer who is willing to stomach it. Many companies are doing so deliberately right now.

    If you've given up I see no reason the state should pay you not to be looking though.
    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.
    Two possibilities here. One is that this is an appalling comment you should be ashamed of. The other is FFS speak to someone, anyone, and get the help and support you need.

    If it’s the latter you have my very best wishes and prayers, seriously.
    I would add that a very good friend of mine went through a horrendous time - ended up sectioned semi-voluntarily. Despite the resulting employment history, he now has a good job and has rebuilt his life. It took time and a lot of effort, but it can be done.
    Well of course it can. But some don’t make it. Too many. It is not something to take lightly.
    Indeed. But everyone who does, that's a plus. He who saves a single life etc.....
  • kle4 said:

    FT Exclusive: @EmmanuelMacron warns Boris Johnson the UK’s international “credibility” is on the line in the Brexit disputes over fishing rights and Northern Ireland.

    “Make no mistake, it is not just for the Europeans but all of their partners.”


    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1454161965450924036

    Yeah, I don't think countries give two shits about fishing disputes. Though they might well pretend to.
    Even the rest of the EU aren't bothered and backing the French over this.

    The notion the Japanese, Australians etc will be is completely laughable.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Charles said:

    pigeon said:

    Queen advised to rest for at least the next fortnight by the doctors.

    London Bridge is going to fall down soon isn't it?

    Quite possibly not, although if this turns into a permanent physical decline that limits her ability to discharge her role then the time will have come for retirement.

    If the Queen point blank refuses to abdicate then that's no barrier: the mechanism exists to declare a Regency.
    I'm going to ask Shadsy to put up a market on who the Regent shall be.

    My money will be going on Boris Johnson.
    When my mentor was still alive he was chairman of the Regency Council, of which ++Runcie and the Prince of Wales were the other members
    You are a parody account, aren't you?

    And what sort of mentor can't chair a Regency council posthumously? Lightweight.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,002
    rcs1000 said:


    Macron has discovered that a manufactured spat with the Brits makes it look like he's standing up for the French ahead of next year's election. He's a little bit like Tony Blair, only without any of the redeeming characteristics.

    To be fair, sounding and acting "tough" against the Europeans, with the odd flounce thrown in, didn't do David Cameron any harm either.

    Perhaps they remembered all his rhetoric when he tried to get a new membership deal after the 2015 GE.
  • Charles said:

    You may have noticed that we have spent a shit load in the last 18 months? Taxes were going to have to rise. It appears to be reasonably broad based and some good other measures
    The Tories could announce that they were killing babies and you’d tell us what a good policy it was.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,235
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Nice of the French to confirm what Remainers once tried to deny

    “French PM Jean Castex has sent a letter to Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission’s president, to notify her of Paris’ planned reprisals against the UK in the fish war. Castex asks for support because the EU needs to show ‘leaving the Union is more damaging than remaining in it’.”


    https://twitter.com/barnes_joe/status/1454110348005490693?s=21

    Not sure this tete a tete is a vindication of LEAVE given these arguments naturally occur between rival organisations/countries or people- Its the act of leaving and pitting ourselves against France that causes it not the fact that the French are wrong or evil or petty .Since the year dot rivals have arguments and seek revenge .
    Macron has discovered that a manufactured spat with the Brits makes it look like he's standing up for the French ahead of next year's election. He's a little bit like Tony Blair, only without any of the redeeming characteristics.
    Well, and it is also waving the big stick over the NIP. Tear up agreements at your peril.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,688

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If you can't be bothered to wear a mask then I don't have a lot of sympathy for you tbh, on TfL services it is required and part of the conditions of carriage, so unless you're legitimately exempt, then I stand by calling people either liars or lazy

    i was on the tube and DLR yesterday and did not wear a mask and neither did about 60% . People really dont like them
    Of course they don't like them! Masks are horrible things, and I'll throw a party when I get to burn mine.

    But given the way that Covid accumulates in enclosed spaces with lots of people (and remember that probably the most dangerous job on a deaths per hour of work was bus driver), it's common courtesy to wear them on crowded public transport. Just as it's common courtesy to cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze.
    Given covid is no more fatal than flu at the moment (1 in 50 has it this week but only about 200 deaths ) then did you wear one pre covid because flu has always been here? time to move on and stop obsessing about it - just doing my bit for that
    That's a little misleading, don't you think? The people most likely to have Covid right now are in the 5 to 15 age range, and they're highly unlikely to die of it. (Which, by the way, is great as it means it'll run through this cohort, and then remove a major vector of transmission.)

    The people I'm with on the tube are highly likely to be a lot older, and therefore to have a much higher CFR.

    I think wearing a mask in settings where there is substantially higher risk that I'll infect other people is common courtesy. It's not something I'd legally require (and if the tube wasn't busy I probably wouldn't worry), but I do try to avoid causing pain and suffering to my fellow man as a general rule, even if it involves some small discomfort for a 20 minute tube ride.
    Quite a good Times article by Parris on Saturday. He's a mask skeptic but was bemoaning the fact that unless something is law people tend to not do it. We lack the necessary social will to do the right thing if it's only advised, hence making the legal route more probable when it really shouldn't be necessary. Me, I just wear a mask if most others are. Bit lazy, and not quite what Parris was getting at, but that's my MO on this one.
    I get people who genuinely think wearing a mask helps with covid (or it is worth the miserable existence it promotes) even if i have the opposite view but really dont get when people dont wear masks but actually want the government to tell them they have to ! That makes me actually depressed with society
    You do know that there's quite a lot of academic research that's been published during the last 18 months on masks and Covid, right?

    It's perfectly sensible (and probably correct) to say that the negative effects of masks in many circumstances outweigh the benefits. But it's incorrect to say that masks don't (a) reduce the spread of Covid in general, and (b) result in people who do catch it getting smaller viral loads.

    The neutral, academic research I've seen into mask mandates (as opposed to masks) show a negligible impact on Covid.

    Funnily enough having a load of people walking around with masks around their necks doesn't do much to stop the spread.
    I haven't seen anything on mask mandates, but I have read a lot of pieces on the effectiveness of masks. And all the evidence is that perform exactly the same role as covering your mouth when you cough or sneeze - that is they limit the amount of viral material that goes flying into the air around you.

    But more importantly, I'm not arguing for mask mandates. I think we're past that now. And I think they result in people being required to use masks at times which are utterly ridiculous. If you're the only person in a tube carriage, why on earth should you be legally required to mask up?

    All I'm saying is that (a) masks work, and (b) it's common courtesy to wear them in high risk environments.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,346
    Anyway, just got my NHS notification for my booster telling me that I was a priority because of serious risks to me if I caught it (don't recall this message previously) and am getting it next Wednesday in Ulverston.

    Followed by a lovely breakfast there and maybe even a trip to Booths, which makes Waitrose seem like Lidl.

    The bridges seem to be open again too. And there was the most magnificent rainbow over the estuary once the rain stopped.

    Heard Bridget Philippson on QT last night. She seemed good. What else has she done?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,239
    UK cases by specimen date - finally got through the DDOS of the API...

    image
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,691
    edited October 2021
    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Well the gaps on my CV are too great for potential employers to stomach.

    Until that changes I'll be unemployed during a period of "full employment"

    Well then keep trying until you find an employer who is willing to stomach it. Many companies are doing so deliberately right now.

    If you've given up I see no reason the state should pay you not to be looking though.

    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.

    Two possibilities here. One is that this is an appalling comment you should be ashamed of. The other is FFS speak to someone, anyone, and get the help and support you need.

    If it’s the latter you have my very best wishes and prayers, seriously.

    To be honest it's probably somewhere in the middle of your binary options.

    I'm simply not brave enough to take my own life so I shouldn't have posted that comment.

    My eldest son who is 55 today and has severe PTSD from attending ground zero in 2011 at the Christchurch earthquake disaster and now lives in BC, Canada is constantly undergoing counselling on this issue and it has helped him greatly

    As a young professional snowboarder performing in the mid 1980's in Europe, the US and Canada he witnessed several horrific accidental deaths and no less than 5 of his friends committed suicide

    In each one had sought help they would have had a chance of life

    Please seek advice, your life is precious

    All the very best
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,239
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

    image
  • rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If you can't be bothered to wear a mask then I don't have a lot of sympathy for you tbh, on TfL services it is required and part of the conditions of carriage, so unless you're legitimately exempt, then I stand by calling people either liars or lazy

    i was on the tube and DLR yesterday and did not wear a mask and neither did about 60% . People really dont like them
    Of course they don't like them! Masks are horrible things, and I'll throw a party when I get to burn mine.

    But given the way that Covid accumulates in enclosed spaces with lots of people (and remember that probably the most dangerous job on a deaths per hour of work was bus driver), it's common courtesy to wear them on crowded public transport. Just as it's common courtesy to cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze.
    Given covid is no more fatal than flu at the moment (1 in 50 has it this week but only about 200 deaths ) then did you wear one pre covid because flu has always been here? time to move on and stop obsessing about it - just doing my bit for that
    That's a little misleading, don't you think? The people most likely to have Covid right now are in the 5 to 15 age range, and they're highly unlikely to die of it. (Which, by the way, is great as it means it'll run through this cohort, and then remove a major vector of transmission.)

    The people I'm with on the tube are highly likely to be a lot older, and therefore to have a much higher CFR.

    I think wearing a mask in settings where there is substantially higher risk that I'll infect other people is common courtesy. It's not something I'd legally require (and if the tube wasn't busy I probably wouldn't worry), but I do try to avoid causing pain and suffering to my fellow man as a general rule, even if it involves some small discomfort for a 20 minute tube ride.
    Quite a good Times article by Parris on Saturday. He's a mask skeptic but was bemoaning the fact that unless something is law people tend to not do it. We lack the necessary social will to do the right thing if it's only advised, hence making the legal route more probable when it really shouldn't be necessary. Me, I just wear a mask if most others are. Bit lazy, and not quite what Parris was getting at, but that's my MO on this one.
    I get people who genuinely think wearing a mask helps with covid (or it is worth the miserable existence it promotes) even if i have the opposite view but really dont get when people dont wear masks but actually want the government to tell them they have to ! That makes me actually depressed with society
    You do know that there's quite a lot of academic research that's been published during the last 18 months on masks and Covid, right?

    It's perfectly sensible (and probably correct) to say that the negative effects of masks in many circumstances outweigh the benefits. But it's incorrect to say that masks don't (a) reduce the spread of Covid in general, and (b) result in people who do catch it getting smaller viral loads.

    Is this research done in a lab though or in some kind of controlled environment because in the real world with people of all shapes and sizes the fact that Wales and Scotland have higher rates (with mask mandates ) somehow doesnt tie in with masks doing any good with covid (not that it is any more fatal than flu ) .Vaccines I get and even the nudges to get people jabbed but masks is just covid theatre satisfying the need of governments the world over to show they can solve things when King Cnut showed centuries ago some things just happen
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,239
    UK Local R

    image
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,045
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, just got my NHS notification for my booster telling me that I was a priority because of serious risks to me if I caught it (don't recall this message previously) and am getting it next Wednesday in Ulverston.

    Followed by a lovely breakfast there and maybe even a trip to Booths, which makes Waitrose seem like Lidl.

    The bridges seem to be open again too. And there was the most magnificent rainbow over the estuary once the rain stopped.

    Heard Bridget Philippson on QT last night. She seemed good. What else has she done?

    The rain stopped?? Weird.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,239
    UK case summary

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  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,034
    kle4 said:

    FT Exclusive: @EmmanuelMacron warns Boris Johnson the UK’s international “credibility” is on the line in the Brexit disputes over fishing rights and Northern Ireland.

    “Make no mistake, it is not just for the Europeans but all of their partners.”


    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1454161965450924036

    Yeah, I don't think countries give two shits about fishing disputes. Though they might well pretend to.
    Good ole Macron
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,239
    UK hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,239
    UK deaths

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,239
    Age related data

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,239
    Age related data scaled to 100k

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  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,002
    rcs1000 said:


    I haven't seen anything on mask mandates, but I have read a lot of pieces on the effectiveness of masks. And all the evidence is that perform exactly the same role as covering your mouth when you cough or sneeze - that is they limit the amount of viral material that goes flying into the air around you.

    But more importantly, I'm not arguing for mask mandates. I think we're past that now. And I think they result in people being required to use masks at times which are utterly ridiculous. If you're the only person in a tube carriage, why on earth should you be legally required to mask up?

    All I'm saying is that (a) masks work, and (b) it's common courtesy to wear them in high risk environments.

    So we're back to that old conundrum of personal responsibility vs individual choice.

    I may not want to wear a mask but if wearing one makes some difference in spreading a virus which I may or may not have, so be it. Whether it's effective stopping the spread of colds or ordinary flu, I don't know but it must be better than doing nothing.

    Combined with the sanitising of transport carriages, it may yet help - from a broadly economic viewpoint, reducing the days lost through illness and improving productivity of those who struggle to work even though they aren't fit because they can't afford to miss a day's pay - all to the good.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,597

    Charles said:

    You may have noticed that we have spent a shit load in the last 18 months? Taxes were going to have to rise. It appears to be reasonably broad based and some good other measures
    The Tories could announce that they were killing babies and you’d tell us what a good policy it was.
    Definitely not, there's a shortage of slaughterers I seem to recall. Though Boris did talk about feeding humans to animals recently...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    You may have noticed that we have spent a shit load in the last 18 months? Taxes were going to have to rise. It appears to be reasonably broad based and some good other measures
    The Tories could announce that they were killing babies and you’d tell us what a good policy it was.
    Definitely not, there's a shortage of slaughterers I seem to recall. Though Boris did talk about feeding humans to animals recently...
    Payback time.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,882
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs

    I'm a staunch supporter of the Queen (but not the Monarchy). She's got to get number one and displace the French.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    rcs1000 said:

    Biden meets Macron:

    @ABC
    "What happened was, to use an English phrase, what we did was clumsy," Pres. Biden says during meeting with French Pres. Macron about the recent U.S. snub of France for nuclear submarine technology in favor of Australia.

    "France is an extremely, extremely valued partner."


    https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1454135251056447491

    Why did Biden need to tell people he was speaking English? Does he normally speak a different language?
    At least he didn't say, "To use an English phrase, it was a faux pas."
    May be he should use the lingua Franca do everyone understands?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Well the gaps on my CV are too great for potential employers to stomach.

    Until that changes I'll be unemployed during a period of "full employment"
    Well then keep trying until you find an employer who is willing to stomach it. Many companies are doing so deliberately right now.

    If you've given up I see no reason the state should pay you not to be looking though.
    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.
    That’s not a long term solution*

    I’d recommend getting something to start building a track record again. Even if it is below your qualifications - or even if it’s volunteering. Proof of reliability is what I suspect you need

    * I know.


  • JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Well the gaps on my CV are too great for potential employers to stomach.

    Until that changes I'll be unemployed during a period of "full employment"
    Well then keep trying until you find an employer who is willing to stomach it. Many companies are doing so deliberately right now.

    If you've given up I see no reason the state should pay you not to be looking though.

    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.

    Two possibilities here. One is that this is an appalling comment you should be ashamed of. The other is FFS speak to someone, anyone, and get the help and support you need.

    If it’s the latter you have my very best wishes and prayers, seriously.

    To be honest it's probably somewhere in the middle of your binary options.

    I'm simply not brave enough to take my own life so I shouldn't have posted that comment.


    @JBriskin

    Sorry I messed up the blockquote but this is my message to you

    My eldest son who is 55 today and has severe PTSD from attending ground zero in 2011 at the Christchurch earthquake disaster and now lives in BC, Canada is constantly undergoing counselling on this issue and it has helped him greatly

    As a young professional snowboarder performing in the mid 1980's in Europe, the US and Canada he witnessed several horrific accidental deaths and no less than 5 of his friends committed suicide

    In each one had sought help they would have had a chance of life

    Please seek advice, your life is precious

    All the very best
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,235
    On the subject of fishing, I had an interesting chat with a caulkhead crab and lobster fisherman, who was at my MiLs funeral. Apparently the catch is 10% of what it was a decade ago.

    The reason? A million cubic metres of silt dredged from Portsmouth Harbour to make space for the new carriers and dumped at Nab Point. The "Beast from the East" washed it right through the Crab and lobsterbeds as far as Dorset, flooding all the crevasses that the lobsters lived in. The beds won't recover in his lifetime.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    FT Exclusive: @EmmanuelMacron warns Boris Johnson the UK’s international “credibility” is on the line in the Brexit disputes over fishing rights and Northern Ireland.

    “Make no mistake, it is not just for the Europeans but all of their partners.”


    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1454161965450924036

    Insisting on proof is such a bad thing?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,808

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    I suggest you read up on things like the Employment and Support Allowance which is being phased into Universal Credit before making ignorant comments like that.
    Yes and the ESA element if you have a limited capability for work is at a different rate to the generic UC for anyone else.

    So if you wish for that to be raise higher then that's an argument to be made, but there's absolutely no reason to do so for everyone else who already get a lower rate than that.
    If you have limited capability for work (LCW) since April 2017 you get the standard rate of UC.

    You need to meet much tighter criteria to qualify for the confusingly named 'limited capability for work related activity' (LCWRA) to get the additional UC allowance.
    Then anyone not meeting the LCWRA criteria should be looking for work.

    Its good for your mental health as well as your finances to be working.
    The system ensures they have to be taking reasonable (as judged by their DWP Work Coach) steps to find work or else their UC is stopped. But it seems to me that some people really are unemployable - in the sense that no employer I know would take them on.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,996
    edited October 2021

    https://twitter.com/MirrorBreaking_/status/1454044688432910338

    We have lost control, when is the Government going to get a grip

    For someone employing their own PR company an in-house photographer a retriever from Urban Paws and a home visit from Nicky Clark the least you'd expect from our chancellor are decent headlines
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IshmaelZ said:

    Charles said:

    pigeon said:

    Queen advised to rest for at least the next fortnight by the doctors.

    London Bridge is going to fall down soon isn't it?

    Quite possibly not, although if this turns into a permanent physical decline that limits her ability to discharge her role then the time will have come for retirement.

    If the Queen point blank refuses to abdicate then that's no barrier: the mechanism exists to declare a Regency.
    I'm going to ask Shadsy to put up a market on who the Regent shall be.

    My money will be going on Boris Johnson.
    When my mentor was still alive he was chairman of the Regency Council, of which ++Runcie and the Prince of Wales were the other members
    You are a parody account, aren't you?

    And what sort of mentor can't chair a Regency council posthumously? Lightweight.
    He wanted to spend his second retirement getting pissed with the Queen Mum instead
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    edited October 2021



    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Well the gaps on my CV are too great for potential employers to stomach.

    Until that changes I'll be unemployed during a period of "full employment"
    Well then keep trying until you find an employer who is willing to stomach it. Many companies are doing so deliberately right now.

    If you've given up I see no reason the state should pay you not to be looking though.
    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.

    Two possibilities here. One is that this is an appalling comment you should be ashamed of. The other is FFS speak to someone, anyone, and get the help and support you need.

    If it’s the latter you have my very best wishes and prayers, seriously.

    To be honest it's probably somewhere in the middle of your binary options.

    I'm simply not brave enough to take my own life so I shouldn't have posted that comment.


    @JBriskin

    Sorry I messed up the blockquote but this is my message to you

    My eldest son who is 55 today and has severe PTSD from attending ground zero in 2011 at the Christchurch earthquake disaster and now lives in BC, Canada is constantly undergoing counselling on this issue and it has helped him greatly

    As a young professional snowboarder performing in the mid 1980's in Europe, the US and Canada he witnessed several horrific accidental deaths and no less than 5 of his friends committed suicide

    In each one had sought help they would have had a chance of life

    Please seek advice, your life is precious

    All the very best


    cc @Charles

    Thanks for all the cool kind comments fellow PBers.

    As I've already stated my psychiatrist is getting me occupational therapy so I think I'll take it from there.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,068

    pigeon said:

    Queen advised to rest for at least the next fortnight by the doctors.

    London Bridge is going to fall down soon isn't it?

    Quite possibly not, although if this turns into a permanent physical decline that limits her ability to discharge her role then the time will have come for retirement.

    If the Queen point blank refuses to abdicate then that's no barrier: the mechanism exists to declare a Regency.
    I seem to recall reading that HMQ would, basically, retire to Balmoral when Prince Philip passed. That certainly hasn't happened and up until very recently she has seemed very prominent. Maybe HM has just overdone it a bit. Hope it's just that.
    She couldn’t retire there because she couldn’t get Andrew to vacate the place.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,808

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs

    I'm a staunch supporter of the Queen (but not the Monarchy). She's got to get number one and displace the French.

    Interesting list - hadn't appreciated before that France went 131 years with just two monarchs between 1643 and 1774.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,961

    Plan B now. In a few weeks I think we will regret not taking action now.

    Have a coffee, you seem to be drunk and hysterical.
    No just concerned about a virus that kills people and has put one my friends in hospital.
    If that's true I hope your friend gets better soon.

    But that's not an excuse for "Plan B" or restrictions.

    People getting sick isn't a reason to lock the country down, its the reason we have hospitals in the first place.
    If that’s true? Are you calling me a liar?
    You called me a liar earlier. A bit late to be precious about it.
    I said if somebody has legitimate reasons for being exempt that's different, otherwise it's laziness or lying about being exempt. I wear a mask, if you don't have a legitimate reason on TfL services at least you're breaking the rules and that's on you
    It's not about being exempt. It's knowing that if it's not safe to be out unless people are wearing masks then it's not safe to be out at all, because the masks don't do much even if worn properly and precious few people are capable of that.

    It's about whether we're still in an emergency or it's time to stop hiding.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs

    I'm a staunch supporter of the Queen (but not the Monarchy). She's got to get number one and displace the French.

    Sadly, not where the clever money is. I think this will all unravel quite quickly from here.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,691
    edited October 2021
    JBriskin3 said:



    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    The last budget was popular on day one.

    YouGov is the start. In a few weeks it will be unpopular and Tories will pretend they never agreed with it

    In a few weeks no one will be talking about it.
    Are you saying the whole point of the Budget was just to achieve a temporary increase in the Conservative Party's poll rating?

    Silly me - I thought it was meant to be a significant speech outlining the economic direction of the country.
    No, just that for the vast majority of people it will not be on their radar in several weeks. Let’s see if it’s still headline news at the start of December.
    Doesn’t the reduced UC taper come in by 1st December? An awful lot of people will see more cash in their pay packets before Christmas, thanks to Santa Sunak.
    Not compared to their September/October incomes.
    The cut in UC took effect in October so it will go up compared to their November income.
    But they'll compare it to the income of the previous 18 out 19 months rather than the last one?
    By my back of the fag paper maths, anyone working full time will be directly better off with the taper cut than they were with the £20 uplift.

    Indirectly they'll be much better off due to the easing of the poverty trap.

    If anyone isn't working, they can get a job. We have full employment.
    Except, I'll state this again, UC isn't just a de facto unemployment benefit, it merged things for people who cannot work/work more hours.

    The taper relief makes no impact for them.
    Then they should work. 🤷‍♂️

    We have full employment and the ability to work from home. If you want more money then work for it.
    You keep using this "full employment" term but don't seem understand the laws of supply and demand.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. There's great demand right now for labour up and down the country.

    If anyone doesn't have a job, now is the time to go and get one - and the government has just rightly cut the tax on getting one.

    That's better than a handout. Keep more of your own money you work for instead.
    Well the gaps on my CV are too great for potential employers to stomach.

    Until that changes I'll be unemployed during a period of "full employment"
    Well then keep trying until you find an employer who is willing to stomach it. Many companies are doing so deliberately right now.

    If you've given up I see no reason the state should pay you not to be looking though.
    Cool - thanks for the advice. To be honest suicide is a way out of my predicament but please don't tell anyone about that otherwise I'll have Police Scotland knocking my door.
    Two possibilities here. One is that this is an appalling comment you should be ashamed of. The other is FFS speak to someone, anyone, and get the help and support you need.

    If it’s the latter you have my very best wishes and prayers, seriously.

    To be honest it's probably somewhere in the middle of your binary options.

    I'm simply not brave enough to take my own life so I shouldn't have posted that comment.


    @JBriskin

    Sorry I messed up the blockquote but this is my message to you

    My eldest son who is 55 today and has severe PTSD from attending ground zero in 2011 at the Christchurch earthquake disaster and now lives in BC, Canada is constantly undergoing counselling on this issue and it has helped him greatly

    As a young professional snowboarder performing in the mid 1980's in Europe, the US and Canada he witnessed several horrific accidental deaths and no less than 5 of his friends committed suicide

    In each one had sought help they would have had a chance of life

    Please seek advice, your life is precious

    All the very best


    cc @Charles

    Thanks for all the cool kind comments fellow PBers.

    As I've already stated my psychiatrist is getting me occupational therapy so I think I'll take it from there.



    Try to keep as positive as you can and do not bottle it up

    There is always someone you can talk to, even those of us on here

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,045

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs

    I'm a staunch supporter of the Queen (but not the Monarchy). She's got to get number one and displace the French.

    Interesting list - hadn't appreciated before that France went 131 years with just two monarchs between 1643 and 1774.
    In fairness they made sure this didn’t happen again in 1793.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,688

    Plan B now. In a few weeks I think we will regret not taking action now.

    Have a coffee, you seem to be drunk and hysterical.
    No just concerned about a virus that kills people and has put one my friends in hospital.
    If that's true I hope your friend gets better soon.

    But that's not an excuse for "Plan B" or restrictions.

    People getting sick isn't a reason to lock the country down, its the reason we have hospitals in the first place.
    If that’s true? Are you calling me a liar?
    You called me a liar earlier. A bit late to be precious about it.
    I said if somebody has legitimate reasons for being exempt that's different, otherwise it's laziness or lying about being exempt. I wear a mask, if you don't have a legitimate reason on TfL services at least you're breaking the rules and that's on you
    It's not about being exempt. It's knowing that if it's not safe to be out unless people are wearing masks then it's not safe to be out at all, because the masks don't do much even if worn properly and precious few people are capable of that.

    It's about whether we're still in an emergency or it's time to stop hiding.
    the masks don't do much even if worn properly and precious few people are capable of that

    This is simply not true. There's the massive randomized study in Bangladesh with something like 300,000 people in it, and they looked at villages, and how many people were unmasked, how many were masked, and what kind of mask was worn.

    There was a very significant impact on transmission associated with surgical masks, and a smaller one with cloth ones.
  • DavidL said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs

    I'm a staunch supporter of the Queen (but not the Monarchy). She's got to get number one and displace the French.

    Interesting list - hadn't appreciated before that France went 131 years with just two monarchs between 1643 and 1774.
    In fairness they made sure this didn’t happen again in 1793.
    There were a fair few French monarchs AFTER 1793.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    @Big_G_NorthWales you do realise how identifiable you are making your son, to anyone who can be bothered to find out? Obviously well meant, but you shouldn't be doing it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,338
    Charles said:

    FT Exclusive: @EmmanuelMacron warns Boris Johnson the UK’s international “credibility” is on the line in the Brexit disputes over fishing rights and Northern Ireland.

    “Make no mistake, it is not just for the Europeans but all of their partners.”


    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1454161965450924036

    Insisting on proof is such a bad thing?
    According to EU regulations, boats operating under the CFP in another member state's waters need to have remote tracking, so it should be easy to provide proof, unless they were previously breaking the rules.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,846

    kle4 said:

    What will be the effect on the practical lives of Brits if the Queen does die? I knwo there will be official mourning but what does that mean beside a lot of Nicolas Witchell and everyone looking really sad on TV ? Will shops shut ,cinemas close etc?

    The plans are known in detail.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge

    But at its most basic, even if you are a royalist, avoid television for two weeks. And on the day probably several things will close early, but most not I suspect. So practical effect looks like not that much.

    And I don't think there's an 'If' about it.
    The London Bridge plans might have been revised after complaints about DofE RIP overkill.
    Anything but Nicolas Witchell. Charles is not a fan....
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,700
    rcs1000 said:

    Plan B now. In a few weeks I think we will regret not taking action now.

    Have a coffee, you seem to be drunk and hysterical.
    No just concerned about a virus that kills people and has put one my friends in hospital.
    If that's true I hope your friend gets better soon.

    But that's not an excuse for "Plan B" or restrictions.

    People getting sick isn't a reason to lock the country down, its the reason we have hospitals in the first place.
    If that’s true? Are you calling me a liar?
    You called me a liar earlier. A bit late to be precious about it.
    I said if somebody has legitimate reasons for being exempt that's different, otherwise it's laziness or lying about being exempt. I wear a mask, if you don't have a legitimate reason on TfL services at least you're breaking the rules and that's on you
    It's not about being exempt. It's knowing that if it's not safe to be out unless people are wearing masks then it's not safe to be out at all, because the masks don't do much even if worn properly and precious few people are capable of that.

    It's about whether we're still in an emergency or it's time to stop hiding.
    the masks don't do much even if worn properly and precious few people are capable of that

    This is simply not true. There's the massive randomized study in Bangladesh with something like 300,000 people in it, and they looked at villages, and how many people were unmasked, how many were masked, and what kind of mask was worn.

    There was a very significant impact on transmission associated with surgical masks, and a smaller one with cloth ones.
    It’s just wrong headed to think that masks don’t impact on the spread of Covid, they clearly do, there are decent studies to show they do. It is of course facile to point at wales and say they are not working, but to do so ignores the Swiss cheese model. Frankly it’s complicated.
    The arguments should be about the potential downsides of masks. Some people hate them and may go out less if mandated to wear them. The ridiculous theatre in pubs and restaurants of putting them on to go to the toilet. The general sense of something is wrong, scary that may harm mental health.
    It’s complicated. In a pure anti Covid sense it’s a slam dunk in favour of masks while we are still in this phase, I.e. the exit wave. But the other, more nebulous effects must be considered. Just as social distancing rules rendered some pubs etc unprofitable, so masks can have detrimental effects. Plus, some of us believe that we are enduring pain now (high cases) to avoid pain later. Parts of Europe may look at us with envy in January.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,030

    kle4 said:

    What will be the effect on the practical lives of Brits if the Queen does die? I knwo there will be official mourning but what does that mean beside a lot of Nicolas Witchell and everyone looking really sad on TV ? Will shops shut ,cinemas close etc?

    The plans are known in detail.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge

    But at its most basic, even if you are a royalist, avoid television for two weeks. And on the day probably several things will close early, but most not I suspect. So practical effect looks like not that much.

    And I don't think there's an 'If' about it.
    The London Bridge plans might have been revised after complaints about DofE RIP overkill.
    Anything but Nicolas Witchell. Charles is not a fan....
    It's still possible she could outlive him.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,846
    JBriskin3 said:

    DavidL said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Palace Intrigue getting a lot of PB Airspace tonight; When we all know that Prince Charles will be King Something Else in a few years.

    I'm more intrigued by Biden today.

    If I was meeting God's representative on earth - I think a kneel more than a simple handshake might be more appropriate??

    What about all the other faiths???
    Yes - I wasn't being clear enough. Biden seems to think a simple hand shake is required when he meets who he thinks is God's representative on earth.
    Joe Biden is a Catholic, but he is also President of the United States.

    And if you are expecting a sitting POTUS to kiss ANYONE's ring (except for #45 with his mentor Putin, he certainly kissed his "ring" often enough) you are nuttier than even I think you are.
    Nope.

    If I met who I thought to be was God's representative on earth I would kneel.
    If I met anyone who genuinely believed he was God’s representative on earth I think I would probably laugh. I mean, being polite, I would try not to, but seriously.
    Catholicism is the most believed religion in the world.
    Most attended.. not necessarily believed.eg. French Churches aiui are usually empty save for weddings and baptisms and funerals.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,688

    Charles said:

    FT Exclusive: @EmmanuelMacron warns Boris Johnson the UK’s international “credibility” is on the line in the Brexit disputes over fishing rights and Northern Ireland.

    “Make no mistake, it is not just for the Europeans but all of their partners.”


    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1454161965450924036

    Insisting on proof is such a bad thing?
    According to EU regulations, boats operating under the CFP in another member state's waters need to have remote tracking, so it should be easy to provide proof, unless they were previously breaking the rules.
    I assume the tracking is Gallileo and not GPS :smile:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,688

    rcs1000 said:

    Plan B now. In a few weeks I think we will regret not taking action now.

    Have a coffee, you seem to be drunk and hysterical.
    No just concerned about a virus that kills people and has put one my friends in hospital.
    If that's true I hope your friend gets better soon.

    But that's not an excuse for "Plan B" or restrictions.

    People getting sick isn't a reason to lock the country down, its the reason we have hospitals in the first place.
    If that’s true? Are you calling me a liar?
    You called me a liar earlier. A bit late to be precious about it.
    I said if somebody has legitimate reasons for being exempt that's different, otherwise it's laziness or lying about being exempt. I wear a mask, if you don't have a legitimate reason on TfL services at least you're breaking the rules and that's on you
    It's not about being exempt. It's knowing that if it's not safe to be out unless people are wearing masks then it's not safe to be out at all, because the masks don't do much even if worn properly and precious few people are capable of that.

    It's about whether we're still in an emergency or it's time to stop hiding.
    the masks don't do much even if worn properly and precious few people are capable of that

    This is simply not true. There's the massive randomized study in Bangladesh with something like 300,000 people in it, and they looked at villages, and how many people were unmasked, how many were masked, and what kind of mask was worn.

    There was a very significant impact on transmission associated with surgical masks, and a smaller one with cloth ones.
    It’s just wrong headed to think that masks don’t impact on the spread of Covid, they clearly do, there are decent studies to show they do. It is of course facile to point at wales and say they are not working, but to do so ignores the Swiss cheese model. Frankly it’s complicated.
    The arguments should be about the potential downsides of masks. Some people hate them and may go out less if mandated to wear them. The ridiculous theatre in pubs and restaurants of putting them on to go to the toilet. The general sense of something is wrong, scary that may harm mental health.
    It’s complicated. In a pure anti Covid sense it’s a slam dunk in favour of masks while we are still in this phase, I.e. the exit wave. But the other, more nebulous effects must be considered. Just as social distancing rules rendered some pubs etc unprofitable, so masks can have detrimental effects. Plus, some of us believe that we are enduring pain now (high cases) to avoid pain later. Parts of Europe may look at us with envy in January.
    This is spot on.

    There's an enormous amount of cognitive dissonance here: people who (for very good reasons) are opposed to masks seek out reasons why they don't work, and seek to discredit studies that show that they do.

    A more honest argument is: are the benefits of masks worth the societal costs?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales you do realise how identifiable you are making your son, to anyone who can be bothered to find out? Obviously well meant, but you shouldn't be doing it.

    Thank you but addressing mental health and potential suicide does sometimes require detail

    I do accept your point but hope PB accepts it in the spirit it is given
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales you do realise how identifiable you are making your son, to anyone who can be bothered to find out? Obviously well meant, but you shouldn't be doing it.

    Thank you but addressing mental health and potential suicide does sometimes require detail

    I do accept your point but hope PB accepts it in the spirit it is given
    PB can accept it or not as it likes, but there was no need to provide a precise date of birth for your son.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    edited October 2021

    JBriskin3 said:

    DavidL said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Palace Intrigue getting a lot of PB Airspace tonight; When we all know that Prince Charles will be King Something Else in a few years.

    I'm more intrigued by Biden today.

    If I was meeting God's representative on earth - I think a kneel more than a simple handshake might be more appropriate??

    What about all the other faiths???
    Yes - I wasn't being clear enough. Biden seems to think a simple hand shake is required when he meets who he thinks is God's representative on earth.
    Joe Biden is a Catholic, but he is also President of the United States.

    And if you are expecting a sitting POTUS to kiss ANYONE's ring (except for #45 with his mentor Putin, he certainly kissed his "ring" often enough) you are nuttier than even I think you are.
    Nope.

    If I met who I thought to be was God's representative on earth I would kneel.
    If I met anyone who genuinely believed he was God’s representative on earth I think I would probably laugh. I mean, being polite, I would try not to, but seriously.
    Catholicism is the most believed religion in the world.
    Most attended.. not necessarily believed.eg. French Churches aiui are usually empty save for weddings and baptisms and funerals.
    Whatever - I just think it's a bit silly of a religion to believe that there is such a thing as God's represenstative on earth - But then I am Church of Scotland
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,688
    On the subject of Covid, here's XKCD: https://xkcd.com/2535
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    FT Exclusive: @EmmanuelMacron warns Boris Johnson the UK’s international “credibility” is on the line in the Brexit disputes over fishing rights and Northern Ireland.

    “Make no mistake, it is not just for the Europeans but all of their partners.”


    https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1454161965450924036

    Insisting on proof is such a bad thing?
    According to EU regulations, boats operating under the CFP in another member state's waters need to have remote tracking, so it should be easy to provide proof, unless they were previously breaking the rules.
    Indeed… although some of them claim that they had an old boat and now they have a new boat…
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Covid, here's XKCD: https://xkcd.com/2535

    Blimey xkcd - that's a blast from the past - Who's the guy in the hat??
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Plan B now. In a few weeks I think we will regret not taking action now.

    Have a coffee, you seem to be drunk and hysterical.
    No just concerned about a virus that kills people and has put one my friends in hospital.
    If that's true I hope your friend gets better soon.

    But that's not an excuse for "Plan B" or restrictions.

    People getting sick isn't a reason to lock the country down, its the reason we have hospitals in the first place.
    If that’s true? Are you calling me a liar?
    You called me a liar earlier. A bit late to be precious about it.
    I said if somebody has legitimate reasons for being exempt that's different, otherwise it's laziness or lying about being exempt. I wear a mask, if you don't have a legitimate reason on TfL services at least you're breaking the rules and that's on you
    It's not about being exempt. It's knowing that if it's not safe to be out unless people are wearing masks then it's not safe to be out at all, because the masks don't do much even if worn properly and precious few people are capable of that.

    It's about whether we're still in an emergency or it's time to stop hiding.
    the masks don't do much even if worn properly and precious few people are capable of that

    This is simply not true. There's the massive randomized study in Bangladesh with something like 300,000 people in it, and they looked at villages, and how many people were unmasked, how many were masked, and what kind of mask was worn.

    There was a very significant impact on transmission associated with surgical masks, and a smaller one with cloth ones.
    It’s just wrong headed to think that masks don’t impact on the spread of Covid, they clearly do, there are decent studies to show they do. It is of course facile to point at wales and say they are not working, but to do so ignores the Swiss cheese model. Frankly it’s complicated.
    The arguments should be about the potential downsides of masks. Some people hate them and may go out less if mandated to wear them. The ridiculous theatre in pubs and restaurants of putting them on to go to the toilet. The general sense of something is wrong, scary that may harm mental health.
    It’s complicated. In a pure anti Covid sense it’s a slam dunk in favour of masks while we are still in this phase, I.e. the exit wave. But the other, more nebulous effects must be considered. Just as social distancing rules rendered some pubs etc unprofitable, so masks can have detrimental effects. Plus, some of us believe that we are enduring pain now (high cases) to avoid pain later. Parts of Europe may look at us with envy in January.
    This is spot on.

    There's an enormous amount of cognitive dissonance here: people who (for very good reasons) are opposed to masks seek out reasons why they don't work, and seek to discredit studies that show that they do.

    A more honest argument is: are the benefits of masks worth the societal costs?
    Fwiw, the government recently published this on the subject of masks:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-and-covid-19-statement-from-an-expert-panel
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Covid, here's XKCD: https://xkcd.com/2535

    I hadn’t realised Facebook was taking “going viral” to the next level… Metapneumovirus
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,034
    Isn’t that letter from the French PM noting

    “ the bloc must show 'total determination', and show 'there is more damage to leaving the Union than remaining'

    Just more revealing on the insecurities of the bloc?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,860
    edited October 2021

    Isn’t that letter from the French PM noting

    “ the bloc must show 'total determination', and show 'there is more damage to leaving the Union than remaining'

    Just more revealing on the insecurities of the bloc?

    Whatever the faults of the current lot in Westminster, I simply cannot imagine them behaving like this towards an independent Scotland should that come to pass.*

    Such an attitude is cynical, stupid and damaging.

    And therefore utterly typical of Macron.

    *Hyufd isn't in Westminster and is fortunately never likely to be.
  • Isn’t that letter from the French PM noting

    “ the bloc must show 'total determination', and show 'there is more damage to leaving the Union than remaining'

    Just more revealing on the insecurities of the bloc?

    Not really. It seems like an obvious plea from France for the bloc to weigh in behind the French.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,597
    ydoethur said:

    Isn’t that letter from the French PM noting

    “ the bloc must show 'total determination', and show 'there is more damage to leaving the Union than remaining'

    Just more revealing on the insecurities of the bloc?

    Whatever the faults of the current lot in Westminster, I simply cannot imagine them behaving like this towards an independent Scotland should that come to pass.
    I fear that may be wishful thinking. I'd hope it was the case, but that our leaders would take a more professional and mature approach than emotional, but I think the latter is more likely, and there'd be a market for it on both sides.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    Officials fear the dispute could spiral into trade war if checks are stepped up at Calais

    One diplomat: “I’m worried that London may not be taking seriously the French threat to choke the flow of freight and let empty shelves put pressure on the British”


    https://www.ft.com/content/0409d72b-ed29-4076-ac6a-2080b4b59e72
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    Isn’t that letter from the French PM noting

    “ the bloc must show 'total determination', and show 'there is more damage to leaving the Union than remaining'

    Just more revealing on the insecurities of the bloc?

    Well, they have got Poland kicking off. Tempestuous times
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,034

    Isn’t that letter from the French PM noting

    “ the bloc must show 'total determination', and show 'there is more damage to leaving the Union than remaining'

    Just more revealing on the insecurities of the bloc?

    Not really. It seems like an obvious plea from France for the bloc to weigh in behind the French.
    Even if France may be (and I don’t know) in the wrong here?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,034
    Scott_xP said:

    Officials fear the dispute could spiral into trade war if checks are stepped up at Calais

    One diplomat: “I’m worried that London may not be taking seriously the French threat to choke the flow of freight and let empty shelves put pressure on the British”


    https://www.ft.com/content/0409d72b-ed29-4076-ac6a-2080b4b59e72

    Wonderfully noble of our European friends. It raises wonderful memories of the time
    macron suddenly imposed testing checks on truckers as a result of the Kent variant
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,860
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Isn’t that letter from the French PM noting

    “ the bloc must show 'total determination', and show 'there is more damage to leaving the Union than remaining'

    Just more revealing on the insecurities of the bloc?

    Whatever the faults of the current lot in Westminster, I simply cannot imagine them behaving like this towards an independent Scotland should that come to pass.
    I fear that may be wishful thinking. I'd hope it was the case, but that our leaders would take a more professional and mature approach than emotional, but I think the latter is more likely, and there'd be a market for it on both sides.
    I think the key differences are (1) the EU still think we will come crawling back if beaten up enough, which not even the most rabid Unionist would believe of Scotland and (2) they fear other countries might follow our example if we seem to be going OK, which again wouldn't really apply to Wales (the only other part of the UK with any mechanism to secede).

    So I don't think we'd see in practice any talk of punishment. We would still have to live together on the same island and ultimately Conservatives are there, in their own conceit anyway, to do whatever works at the time.
This discussion has been closed.