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Starmer’s successor looks set to be one of these three – politicalbetting.com
Starmer’s successor looks set to be one of these three – politicalbetting.com
Forget current betting favourite and twice leadership failure Andy Burnham the next party leader will surely come from the above trio who have all come to the fore in the past month.
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Remember too the last time a Leader of the Opposition was replaced before being allowed to fight a general election, IDS in 2003, he was replaced by his Shadow Chancellor, Michael Howard. However Howard got 32.4% in 2005 which was little different to what the Tories were polling under IDS anyway. I don't think Reeves would really make much difference to Starmer to be honest, both are on the centrist wing of Labour and both tried to overturn Brexit by backing a Peoples' Vote. Similarly IDS and Howard were very much on the same spectrum on the Eurosceptic right of the Tory party.
If Labour lose the next general election and Burnham is elected as an MP again then he will be a contender for Labour leader, having opposed a second referendum on Brexit and not being too close to Corbyn, until then I agree he is out of the picture
As for the replacements, each might do a better job, but does any of them have the Blair touch which has been needed to win an election against the Conservatives over the last 40 years? I'm not sure.
To win in England again though and get a majority rather than hung parliament and absent a recovery in Scotland then yes Labour would likely need a Blairite leader again. Blair being the only Labour leader ever to have won more than 1 majority in England
It was that cracking which caused Portillo's self destruct in his leadership campaign.
I can't see Starmer suddenly losing his - which means that he thinks he is the best person for the job.
There is a statistical difference between the YouGov opinion polls and the others.
The difference is that YouGov have Labour 3% lower, and the Greens 3% higher, based on October polls.
The other pollster which have a significant difference is Redfield & Wilton Strategies which have Labour and the Lib Dems around 2% higher than the others (taking into account YouGov's adjustment).
"At the end of the day, at this level, I'm just a bit short."
Immortal words - and the mark of the man really.
My suggestion is that this is evidence that Starmer's repair job to the Labour party is working, but it still has some way to go. It's possible that in another couple of years he will have developed a strong shadow cabinet that begins to look like a credible government-in-waiting.
Maybe they could go for a Jacinda-style shortcut and successfully swap leaders before the next election, but I think that the task of winning a Labour majority is so large that it would be a mistake.
The best Labour can credibly hope for is for Starmer to play a Michael Howard role of steadying the ship after the Corbyn debacle, chip away at the landslide majority of the government, and develop a stronger next generation so the next leader has more to work with.
Yes she may not have been up to moving from junior minister to Cabinet level and she had the strength to admit it to herself and resign but I doubt many of her Cabinet colleagues would have been able to control a class of rowdy teenagers as she used to do either
Prime Minister after the election:
2019 Tory
2017 Tory
2015 Tory
2010 Tory
2005 Tony
2001 Tony
1997 Tony
1992 Tory
1987 Tory
1983 Tory
1979 Tory
1974 LABOUR!
There was a cluster of women representing north east seats who entered parliament back then. I remember thinking at the time that they were well placed to make an impression.
If the next Labour leadership election comes after the GE, then Phillipson will be a real contender. If Starmer quits early, Reeves is in the box seat.
Look a little pricey, for what they are, though.
Adding half of a corn on the cob from the freezer would enhance nicely.
Starmer may well rely on the SNP and Welsh Labour MPs therefore to get to power
Weighing up the three great offices of state we have Sunak, Patel and Truss vs. Reeves, Thomas-Symonds and Nandy. I know which threesome (please don't misinterpret) I'd go for.
Meanwhile, I was pleased to see that Rayner has finally apologised for Toryscumgate. Shame it took actual threats for her to see why her comments were unhelpful, but at least she's learning.
£3.50, little planning and no cooking time vs say £1 for ingredients plus ensuring have a constant wide variety of fresh ingredients plus 10-30 mins per meal.
For me, that amount of extra cash is irrelevant vs the time. For others it will be different.
I would rule Phillipson our for the next contest as too junior.
I wouldn't rule out Rosena or Jess either. Angela is also a fighter and the scum comment not so much a problem with the party selectorate.
I don't think it sexist that they are all women, I just don't see any male rivals with the same calibre.
But Labour's wokeness means there will always be a question mark over them.
But yes, a pool of talented women who could contest a leadership election.
Of the men, then EdM is probably top of the pile, and I'm sure he won't be standing.
Reeves gave a competent response to the budget but anyone could have done better than Annaliese Dodds' lamentable effort last year. Reeves has the handicap of having a terrible voice.
UK is heading towards the 100,000 new cases/day mark, with the proportion of those double vaxxed now up to 29%. Probably more than one on fifth of us has covid right now. Numbers in ICU up 15% from last week. Recent cases are still mostly children although the 35-55 age group is now also on the rise. Some signs that the overall increases are starting to level off.
Our hopsitalisation rate is higher than most European countries, confirming the picture of the case statistics that the UK is now doing relatively poorly. Our double Vac rate is now middle of the pack. In Romania and Latvia hospitals are heading toward being overwhelmed by admissions. He suggests Portugal is doing the best and may soon achieve herd immunity.
He thinks ZOE is picking up more edge cases than the government confirmed data. Personally I wonder about the likely bias in people completing Zoe which surely by now leans toward the symptomatic?
He concedes that the greater restrictions in Scotland and Wales don’t seem to be making any difference to their data.
About 2 million a week are becoming eligible for boosters, and the booster programme isn’t keeping up.
Mared Foulkes, 21, of Anglesey, was studying pharmacy at Cardiff University
One email from the university incorrectly stated she had failed her exams
Ms Foulkes had already taken her own life before the mistake was rectified"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10142029/Student-fell-death-bridge-getting-email-WRONGLY-telling-failed-exams.html
Younger than the PM and LOTO. Seems like a character from a different age.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations#card-people_who_have_received_booster_or_3rd_dose_vaccinations_by_report_date
300*7 = ......
Interesting study showing that #SARSCoV2 breakthrough infection of vaccinated people strongly boosts neutralizing antibody titers, with extent of boosting similar to Moderna booster vaccines
https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1453833007098302467
Labour comeback in Scotland.
Have all those Graun columnists who rowed in to support Rayner when she made the remarks likewise apologised, a la Private Eye?
"Positive discrimination" is still discrimination, it doesn't do that.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/10/facebook-papers-democracy-election-zuckerberg/620478/
...One argument goes something like this: Facebook’s algorithms aren’t magic, its ad targeting isn’t even that good, and most people aren’t that stupid.
All of this may be true, but that shouldn’t be reassuring. An algorithm may just be a big dumb means to an end, a clunky way of maneuvering a massive, dynamic network toward a desired outcome. But Facebook’s enormous size gives it tremendous, unstable power. Facebook takes whole populations of people, pushes them toward radicalism, and then steers the radicalized toward one another. For those who found themselves in the “Stop the Steal” corners of Facebook in November and December of last year, the enthusiasm, the sense of solidarity, must have been overwhelming and thrilling. Facebook had taken warped reality and distributed it at scale....
We also need to be teaching resilience from a young age. I remember the extreme stress I was under in the final months of my undergraduate course. It took me to some bad places. This kind of automated email could possibly have tipped me over the edge. Having someone relevant to have been able to have a sensitive chat to, at that precise moment may well have saved that poor girls life.
We need to do better, as a society.
RIP
Not sure about either of those, tbf.
"Positive discrimination" is no better at finding the right person for the job, if you're still discriminating against the people you were discriminating against then the 'right person' still suffers because they're being discriminated against. Promoting someone else from the same group because "they all look the same" to you isn't a fix.
"The all-woman shadow cabinet she had selected had taken their seats in the Commons that first Wednesday after the leadership win. She well recalled standing up at PMQs and beginning with “What a f*ing mess these boys have got this country into, Mr Speaker” as she waved at Johnson, Gove and Sunak. It was a master move that would get Labour finally noticed by the public announced the press in unison as they roared on Angela and Yvette taking it in turns to pound the hapless, floundering fag end government day after day. "
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/10/27/december-2024-a-tongue-in-cheek-prediction/
▪️ increased in England, now at a similar level to early 2021
▪️ increased in Northern Ireland.
Trends were uncertain in Wales and there were early signs of an increase in Scotland ow.ly/zGLx50GAXsy
https://twitter.com/ons/status/1454040643198758916?s=21
“One in”:
Wales: 40
England: 50
Scotland: 75
NI: 75
Or was it a private bet?
It's now how I say it in my head.
Yep, I can see that.
What is wrong with positive discrimination then?
How far he has fallen.