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What will Rishi’s PM chances look like after today’s budget? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    have budgets always been this political ? Personally i would have liked a bit more honest critique than an hour of saying everything and we are great , magic money tree and all that . It seemed a bit lacking in gravitas frankly

    It was beautifully presented budget. Although Reeves's response is very much better that I (or Starmer) could have done.
    well maybe if you are a tory spin doctor but budgets are supposed to be a grown up presentation of the state of the finances - you would have thought given the massive debt more intelligent contributions could have been made than x billion spend on this and x billion on that
    Lots of giveaways, very little takeaways until after the next election (looks like Spring 2023).

    The headlines and the presentation are all the RedWall is interested in, and on that score all boxes ticked.
  • From my back of a fag paper calculations it looks like a full time employee on UC will be better off after today's budget than if they'd kept the £20 uplift but not touched the taper. Whereas they'd have been worse off even with the Living Wage boost had it not been touched.

    Plus the benefit of a lower taper is the poverty trap is reduced for if they do some overtime or get a pay-rise.

    People should be able to rely on work and not welfare.

    Devil will be in the detail but I'm a happy bunny today. I'm still worse off personally due the NI changes, but the poorest who work are better off so this is a big first step in the right direction.

    And it comes in by the 1st December
    My only bug with that is that the £20 uplift should have been kept until 30 November then.

    But people keeping more of their own income, instead of relying upon the state, is a positive step in the right direction. 👍
  • IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    More important news: England 90/1 after 10 overs, target of 125 looking very easy.

    Almost winter as well. Is there no end to this cricket.
    Nope. As soon as they’re finished in the Middle East, they’ll be moving to Australia (Where England can expect to get smashed in the Ashes).
    I liked the old days when the one consolidation of winter was not having to endure any more cricket.
    Before 1882?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer

    I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
    Last time I visited my octogenarian step-mother: I think that may help your point (apart from the bigoted bit).
    I'm gin not sherry.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782

    I'm absolutely delighted the Chancellor has recognised UC Taper is a tax. Ending this is something I've been personally arguing about for twenty one years (since I started my Economics degree and discovered this).

    I am delighted today. We need to end the poverty trap.

    This is only a step though. It needs to go further. Much further.

    There has to be some taper though, or are you arguing for a Universal Income?
    I am arguing for what Milton Friedman called a Negative Income Tax, or what others have called a Universal Income.

    A single defined benefit amount per person, a single defined tax rate, and that's it. Yes those earning millions get the benefit but so frigging they're paying for it and it will just net off their tax rate like tax allowance does (or did) previously.

    Currently we have a "New York Skyline" set of tax rates that shoot up and down. 20%, 40%, 60% or 75% depending upon what you earn. Going up and down, up and down with no discernible reason and creating artificial thresholds that discourage work.
    Fair enough. I can think of a few problems, but no system is without those.
    There are, but there are so many other benefits eg reduces tax and benefits abuse, reduces poverty, much simpler to administer, potential for merging with state pension, student maintenance loan, maternity benefit, etc, etc. Can in fact elliminate most benefits.
  • Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer

    I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
    I have a bottle of sherry in the cupboard. I never touch it, yet it mysteriously goes down over time.
    Mix it with Blue WKD and it takes just like Vimto.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    tlg86 said:

    Very impressive from Reeves. I'd be curious to know how she thinks a Labour government would result in more economic growth.

    Fair play to you. Absolutely superb response. That's her bid for the leadership right there.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Cookie said:

    Excellent stuff from Rachel.

    A star is born.

    What? When I left for lunch, it was going to be Bridget Phillipson. What happened to her - did she drop out too, or was that fake news (put about, presumably, so that people like me would go googling Bridget Phillipson)?
    Twas fake news.
  • From my back of a fag paper calculations it looks like a full time employee on UC will be better off after today's budget than if they'd kept the £20 uplift but not touched the taper. Whereas they'd have been worse off even with the Living Wage boost had it not been touched.

    Plus the benefit of a lower taper is the poverty trap is reduced for if they do some overtime or get a pay-rise.

    People should be able to rely on work and not welfare.

    Devil will be in the detail but I'm a happy bunny today. I'm still worse off personally due the NI changes, but the poorest who work are better off so this is a big first step in the right direction.

    And it comes in by the 1st December
    My only bug with that is that the £20 uplift should have been kept until 30 November then.

    But people keeping more of their own income, instead of relying upon the state, is a positive step in the right direction. 👍
    The £500 million grant to LA'S is there to mitigate that issue
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Wes Streeting on WATO. Is he really the future?

    He’s a bright guy but is, and probably always will be, a quintessential student politician. It’s hard to see him ever developing the common touch that a top class politician needs.
    For many of us, the first time we encountered him was as the NUS President massively in favour of tuition fees, because that’s what Uncle Tony said he needed to believe this week.
    I served eight years with him on my local council, four years with me in administration and him in opposition, four years the other way around.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Pulpstar said:

    Open bets midpoint -£95. 55 mentions of billion ?

    It trips off the tongue to billionaire Rishi
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    edited October 2021
    There must be more to come out in the detail surely? This budget was very light otherwise. Where is the money coming from?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer

    I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
    I have a bottle of sherry in the cupboard. I never touch it, yet it mysteriously goes down over time.
    Mix it with Blue WKD and it takes just like Vimto.
    I hope that wasn't a recommendation. How did you find that out?
  • tlg86 said:

    Very impressive from Reeves. I'd be curious to know how she thinks a Labour government would result in more economic growth.

    Fair play to you. Absolutely superb response. That's her bid for the leadership right there.
    I maybe was in front of the game when I backed Rachel weeks ago
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Stocky said:

    There must be more to come out in the detail surely? This budget was very light otherwise. Where is the money coming from?

    Growth of 6pc this year - Or maybe just the UK credit card which is on an almost balance transfer rate.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    kjh said:

    I'm absolutely delighted the Chancellor has recognised UC Taper is a tax. Ending this is something I've been personally arguing about for twenty one years (since I started my Economics degree and discovered this).

    I am delighted today. We need to end the poverty trap.

    This is only a step though. It needs to go further. Much further.

    There has to be some taper though, or are you arguing for a Universal Income?
    I am arguing for what Milton Friedman called a Negative Income Tax, or what others have called a Universal Income.

    A single defined benefit amount per person, a single defined tax rate, and that's it. Yes those earning millions get the benefit but so frigging they're paying for it and it will just net off their tax rate like tax allowance does (or did) previously.

    Currently we have a "New York Skyline" set of tax rates that shoot up and down. 20%, 40%, 60% or 75% depending upon what you earn. Going up and down, up and down with no discernible reason and creating artificial thresholds that discourage work.
    Fair enough. I can think of a few problems, but no system is without those.
    There are, but there are so many other benefits eg reduces tax and benefits abuse, reduces poverty, much simpler to administer, potential for merging with state pension, student maintenance loan, maternity benefit, etc, etc. Can in fact elliminate most benefits.
    The biggest advantage of UBI is the elimination of hundreds of thousands of bureaucrats, the biggest disadvantage is that the level of it becomes a massive political football, with parties competing at elections on what next year’s UBI will be.
  • kjh said:

    I'm absolutely delighted the Chancellor has recognised UC Taper is a tax. Ending this is something I've been personally arguing about for twenty one years (since I started my Economics degree and discovered this).

    I am delighted today. We need to end the poverty trap.

    This is only a step though. It needs to go further. Much further.

    There has to be some taper though, or are you arguing for a Universal Income?
    I am arguing for what Milton Friedman called a Negative Income Tax, or what others have called a Universal Income.

    A single defined benefit amount per person, a single defined tax rate, and that's it. Yes those earning millions get the benefit but so frigging they're paying for it and it will just net off their tax rate like tax allowance does (or did) previously.

    Currently we have a "New York Skyline" set of tax rates that shoot up and down. 20%, 40%, 60% or 75% depending upon what you earn. Going up and down, up and down with no discernible reason and creating artificial thresholds that discourage work.
    Fair enough. I can think of a few problems, but no system is without those.
    There are, but there are so many other benefits eg reduces tax and benefits abuse, reduces poverty, much simpler to administer, potential for merging with state pension, student maintenance loan, maternity benefit, etc, etc. Can in fact elliminate most benefits.
    My main worry is that demands would be made to make it “in addition to” rather than “instead of” most benefits, or that the list of additional benefits would creep up with time.
    Additionally if it is enough to live on then how many would decide that it was easier to do that than work: if it is not enough to live on then additional benefits would be needed to prevent people starving and we are back to where we started.
  • kjh said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer

    I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
    I have a bottle of sherry in the cupboard. I never touch it, yet it mysteriously goes down over time.
    Mix it with Blue WKD and it takes just like Vimto.
    I hope that wasn't a recommendation. How did you find that out?
    A friend said it one night while I was in a pub. Apparently its called a Cheeky Vimto.

    We all drank it that night and polished off the pub's rather dusty bottle of sherry.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    tlg86 said:

    Very impressive from Reeves. I'd be curious to know how she thinks a Labour government would result in more economic growth.

    Fair play to you. Absolutely superb response. That's her bid for the leadership right there.
    I maybe was in front of the game when I backed Rachel weeks ago
    You were in front of the game when you told us all that Boris was a dodgy buffoon. Much good it did you.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,776

    Cookie said:

    Excellent stuff from Rachel.

    A star is born.

    What? When I left for lunch, it was going to be Bridget Phillipson. What happened to her - did she drop out too, or was that fake news (put about, presumably, so that people like me would go googling Bridget Phillipson)?
    Twas fake news.
    Huh. Fair enough. At least I now know who Bridget Phillipson is. And also what her middle name is. It's 'Maeve'.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    tlg86 said:

    Very impressive from Reeves. I'd be curious to know how she thinks a Labour government would result in more economic growth.

    Fair play to you. Absolutely superb response. That's her bid for the leadership right there.
    I maybe was in front of the game when I backed Rachel weeks ago
    Yes, you were. She is the real deal.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    edited October 2021

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer

    I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
    I have a bottle of sherry in the cupboard. I never touch it, yet it mysteriously goes down over time.
    Mix it with Blue WKD and it takes just like Vimto.
    “Cheeky Vimto”, was that sherry or port with the WKD?

    Also the “Cheeky Shandy”, a bottle of Beck’s and a bottle of Smirnoff Ice, which you could drink straight down.
  • kjh said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer

    I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
    I have a bottle of sherry in the cupboard. I never touch it, yet it mysteriously goes down over time.
    Mix it with Blue WKD and it takes just like Vimto.
    I hope that wasn't a recommendation. How did you find that out?
    A friend said it one night while I was in a pub. Apparently its called a Cheeky Vimto.

    We all drank it that night and polished off the pub's rather dusty bottle of sherry.
    Beer & Coke in equal measures with a shot or two of Amaretto = Dr Pepper
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited October 2021
    IanB2 said:

    Wes Streeting on WATO. Is he really the future?

    He’s a bright guy but is, and probably always will be, a quintessential student politician. It’s hard to see him ever developing the common touch that a top class politician needs.
    Reeves on the other hand was excellent, and there was me thinking she will struggle here to critique what is essentially a Labour budget that TSE will hate.
  • IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very impressive from Reeves. I'd be curious to know how she thinks a Labour government would result in more economic growth.

    Fair play to you. Absolutely superb response. That's her bid for the leadership right there.
    I maybe was in front of the game when I backed Rachel weeks ago
    You were in front of the game when you told us all that Boris was a dodgy buffoon. Much good it did you.
    Today demonstrated why I have backed Rishi for a long time and if he replaced Boris today I would be delighted
  • Excellent stuff from Rachel.

    A star is born.

    A stonking performance from Rachel Reeves and Bet365 have cut her to 7/1 from 16/1 to replace Keir Starmer. Nonetheless, she should have been saved for the budget debate over the next couple of days.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer

    I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
    I have a bottle of sherry in the cupboard. I never touch it, yet it mysteriously goes down over time.
    Mix it with Blue WKD and it takes just like Vimto.
    “Cheeky Vimto”, was that sherry or port with the WKD?

    Also the “Cheeky Shandy”, a bottle of Beck’s and a bottle of Smirnoff Ice, which you could drink straight down.
    I know a half beer with Smirnoff Ice to be a "Turbo Shandy"
  • tlg86 said:

    Very impressive from Reeves. I'd be curious to know how she thinks a Labour government would result in more economic growth.

    Fair play to you. Absolutely superb response. That's her bid for the leadership right there.
    She also went to the right university for her to be PM at some point 😀
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,181
    I headed to Tesco for lunch and paid via self serve, so it's the first time I've really noticed - when did the 16 yr old minimum age come in for energy drinks ?
  • have budgets always been this political ? Personally i would have liked a bit more honest critique than an hour of saying everything and we are great , magic money tree and all that . It seemed a bit lacking in gravitas frankly

    It was beautifully presented budget. Although Reeves's response is very much better that I (or Starmer) could have done.
    well maybe if you are a tory spin doctor but budgets are supposed to be a grown up presentation of the state of the finances - you would have thought given the massive debt more intelligent contributions could have been made than x billion spend on this and x billion on that
    Lots of giveaways, very little takeaways until after the next election (looks like Spring 2023).

    The headlines and the presentation are all the RedWall is interested in, and on that score all boxes ticked.
    Though bear in mind the chunky tax rises already pre-announced.
  • Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer

    I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
    I have a bottle of sherry in the cupboard. I never touch it, yet it mysteriously goes down over time.
    Mix it with Blue WKD and it takes just like Vimto.
    “Cheeky Vimto”, was that sherry or port with the WKD?

    Also the “Cheeky Shandy”, a bottle of Beck’s and a bottle of Smirnoff Ice, which you could drink straight down.
    Oh shoot you're right, its port not sherry. 😳

    You may be pleased to know I have neither WKD, nor sherry, nor port in my home and its not something I normally drink.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,776
    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer

    I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
    I have a bottle of sherry in the cupboard. I never touch it, yet it mysteriously goes down over time.
    The only use I have for sherry is to add it to Christmas cake. The bottle I have has lasted about 8 years.
    Drinking it on its own is pleasant but always seems to put me in a melancholy mood. So now when I make Christmas cake I do so in the company of a cheerier drink, like whisky or port.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    From my back of a fag paper calculations it looks like a full time employee on UC will be better off after today's budget than if they'd kept the £20 uplift but not touched the taper. Whereas they'd have been worse off even with the Living Wage boost had it not been touched.

    Plus the benefit of a lower taper is the poverty trap is reduced for if they do some overtime or get a pay-rise.

    People should be able to rely on work and not welfare.

    Devil will be in the detail but I'm a happy bunny today. I'm still worse off personally due the NI changes, but the poorest who work are better off so this is a big first step in the right direction.

    Back on board the Boris bus, thank goodness for that!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    edited October 2021
    I see that UK Booster Jabs have made it to Our World In Data.



    Euro narrative about to change to "booster jabs are taking vaccinations from developing countries" :wink: .
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366

    From my back of a fag paper calculations it looks like a full time employee on UC will be better off after today's budget than if they'd kept the £20 uplift but not touched the taper. Whereas they'd have been worse off even with the Living Wage boost had it not been touched.

    Plus the benefit of a lower taper is the poverty trap is reduced for if they do some overtime or get a pay-rise.

    People should be able to rely on work and not welfare.

    Devil will be in the detail but I'm a happy bunny today. I'm still worse off personally due the NI changes, but the poorest who work are better off so this is a big first step in the right direction.

    And it comes in by the 1st December
    My only bug with that is that the £20 uplift should have been kept until 30 November then.

    But people keeping more of their own income, instead of relying upon the state, is a positive step in the right direction. 👍
    A little shock that encourages people to go in search of work may not do that much harm...
  • Stocky said:

    There must be more to come out in the detail surely? This budget was very light otherwise. Where is the money coming from?

    Documentation available now.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/autumn-budget-and-spending-review-2021-documents
  • Excellent stuff from Rachel.

    A star is born.

    A stonking performance from Rachel Reeves and Bet365 have cut her to 7/1 from 16/1 to replace Keir Starmer. Nonetheless, she should have been saved for the budget debate over the next couple of days.
    Rishi PM v Rachel LOTO would be very interesting

    The best two politicians in the UK at present
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,722
    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer

    I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
    I have a bottle of sherry in the cupboard. I never touch it, yet it mysteriously goes down over time.
    Angel's Devil's share
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,181

    have budgets always been this political ? Personally i would have liked a bit more honest critique than an hour of saying everything and we are great , magic money tree and all that . It seemed a bit lacking in gravitas frankly

    It was beautifully presented budget. Although Reeves's response is very much better that I (or Starmer) could have done.
    well maybe if you are a tory spin doctor but budgets are supposed to be a grown up presentation of the state of the finances - you would have thought given the massive debt more intelligent contributions could have been made than x billion spend on this and x billion on that
    Lots of giveaways, very little takeaways until after the next election (looks like Spring 2023).

    The headlines and the presentation are all the RedWall is interested in, and on that score all boxes ticked.
    Though bear in mind the chunky tax rises already pre-announced.
    With two budgets a year, the tax rises can be doubled up
  • Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer

    I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
    I have a bottle of sherry in the cupboard. I never touch it, yet it mysteriously goes down over time.
    Mix it with Blue WKD and it takes just like Vimto.
    “Cheeky Vimto”, was that sherry or port with the WKD?

    Also the “Cheeky Shandy”, a bottle of Beck’s and a bottle of Smirnoff Ice, which you could drink straight down.
    Oh shoot you're right, its port not sherry. 😳

    You may be pleased to know I have neither WKD, nor sherry, nor port in my home and its not something I normally drink.
    This is why I like pb: it’s the only site I know where people will be persuaded by an argument/evidence and admit to being wrong.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Easy win for England.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2021

    From my back of a fag paper calculations it looks like a full time employee on UC will be better off after today's budget than if they'd kept the £20 uplift but not touched the taper. Whereas they'd have been worse off even with the Living Wage boost had it not been touched.

    Plus the benefit of a lower taper is the poverty trap is reduced for if they do some overtime or get a pay-rise.

    People should be able to rely on work and not welfare.

    Devil will be in the detail but I'm a happy bunny today. I'm still worse off personally due the NI changes, but the poorest who work are better off so this is a big first step in the right direction.

    Back on board the Boris bus, thank goodness for that!
    Maybe.

    This is an issue I care passionately about which I've been campaigning about for years. Its not like I've suddenly just discovered this issue - this is something I did a paper on nearly two decades ago and is something I have long really cared about. There's a reason why when it was named other posters name-checked me on it, this is something I've been advocating for here.

    The devil will be in the details. It will be interesting to see if this stands up in the light of day but if it does then Rishi may have won me back with this move.

    But I'll want further such steps in the future, this isn't the end of the line as far as I'm concerned.
  • Sandpit said:

    Easy win for England.

    Are we still talking about the budget?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Unlike various political gurus who infamously claim to be able to play 4D chess, Rachel Reeves provably can play the game, having won the UK Under-14s Ladies Championship in her youth.
  • eek said:

    From my back of a fag paper calculations it looks like a full time employee on UC will be better off after today's budget than if they'd kept the £20 uplift but not touched the taper. Whereas they'd have been worse off even with the Living Wage boost had it not been touched.

    Plus the benefit of a lower taper is the poverty trap is reduced for if they do some overtime or get a pay-rise.

    People should be able to rely on work and not welfare.

    Devil will be in the detail but I'm a happy bunny today. I'm still worse off personally due the NI changes, but the poorest who work are better off so this is a big first step in the right direction.

    And it comes in by the 1st December
    My only bug with that is that the £20 uplift should have been kept until 30 November then.

    But people keeping more of their own income, instead of relying upon the state, is a positive step in the right direction. 👍
    A little shock that encourages people to go in search of work may not do that much harm...
    Fair point!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Unlike various political gurus who infamously claim to be able to play 4D chess, Rachel Reeves provably can play the game, having won the UK Under-14s Ladies Championship in her youth.


    The Queen's Gambit!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    .

    Excellent stuff from Rachel.

    A star is born.

    A stonking performance from Rachel Reeves and Bet365 have cut her to 7/1 from 16/1 to replace Keir Starmer. Nonetheless, she should have been saved for the budget debate over the next couple of days.
    Rishi PM v Rachel LOTO would be very interesting

    The best two politicians in the UK at present
    That's you drummed out of the Boris fan club!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Farooq said:

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer

    I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
    I have a bottle of sherry in the cupboard. I never touch it, yet it mysteriously goes down over time.
    Mix it with Blue WKD and it takes just like Vimto.
    “Cheeky Vimto”, was that sherry or port with the WKD?

    Also the “Cheeky Shandy”, a bottle of Beck’s and a bottle of Smirnoff Ice, which you could drink straight down.
    Oh shoot you're right, its port not sherry. 😳

    You may be pleased to know I have neither WKD, nor sherry, nor port in my home and its not something I normally drink.
    Quick and think of a name for your WKD + sherry invention.
    Carrie's Menses.
  • .

    Excellent stuff from Rachel.

    A star is born.

    A stonking performance from Rachel Reeves and Bet365 have cut her to 7/1 from 16/1 to replace Keir Starmer. Nonetheless, she should have been saved for the budget debate over the next couple of days.
    Rishi PM v Rachel LOTO would be very interesting

    The best two politicians in the UK at present
    That's you drummed out of the Boris fan club!
    I have been drummed out of the conservative party completely by @HYUFD
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Unlike various political gurus who infamously claim to be able to play 4D chess, Rachel Reeves provably can play the game, having won the UK Under-14s Ladies Championship in her youth.


    The Queen's Gambit!
    Where's her bloody mask?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,722
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer

    I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
    When I worked in a convenience store, there were a few elderly customers who used to buy cheap sherry, by the litre, at least once a week. Either a lot of drinking or a lot of fruitcakes.*

    We do have a bottle of dry sherry, it comes into a few recipes, not only cakes but also some marinades.

    *Of the edible variety, although also applies to some of those customers. There was one used to bark 'boy' at me and tell me to hurry up. Obviously I had a special go-slow mode just for him.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    A wonderful Labour budget from the Tories
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,815
    edited October 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    I headed to Tesco for lunch and paid via self serve, so it's the first time I've really noticed - when did the 16 yr old minimum age come in for energy drinks ?

    Shop driven, not law. Possibly concerns about being sued if misused by young kids. Govt have talked about a ban, but afaik not introduced such legislation.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer

    I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
    A glass of sherry? Not since my parents died. Sherry is ever-present in the house, but used exclusively as an ingredient in Asian cuisine.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    Snap verdict: This was the anti-Osborne budget.

    There was so much in this budget that undid the work of George Osborne's budgets, that I found a lot to like, the centrepiece being the cut in the Universal Credit taper.

    As to how it's being paid for, worth remembering the freeze to thresholds, which means anticipated inflation of 4% results in a considerable tax increase.

    Lots I don't like too, of course, but special mention to the cut in alcohol duty for draught beer and cider - a change that I've suggested on here many times.

    Also the annual cancellation of the fuel duty rise is beyond absurd now. It's a complete fiction at this stage that a rise is planned and then cancelled. It's become such a pointless tradition that Chancellors might continue it right up until the point that sales of fossil-sourced motor fuels are eventually banned.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Unlike various political gurus who infamously claim to be able to play 4D chess, Rachel Reeves provably can play the game, having won the UK Under-14s Ladies Championship in her youth.

    She was right to lead off with what most people are seeing day-to-day; the rising price of fuel, home heating, food and the rest; rather than the fiscal issues within the budget that will pass most people by. And to zero in on the NI rise unreasonably handing the bill to ordinary working people.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Kate McCann of Sky News admits Rishi baffled us with Science.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I headed to Tesco for lunch and paid via self serve, so it's the first time I've really noticed - when did the 16 yr old minimum age come in for energy drinks ?

    Shop driven, not law. Possibly concerns about being sued if misused by young kids. Govt have talked about a ban, but afaik not introduced such legislation.
    my daughter (17 ) got stopped from buying some red bull the other day so i presumed the law (she had no id on her ) .
  • Fenman said:

    A wonderful Labour budget from the Tories

    Much to the annoyance of @HYUFD I have long since said that Boris and HMG have moved left and to use another one of his quotes and has put their tanks on labour's lawn
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    .

    Excellent stuff from Rachel.

    A star is born.

    A stonking performance from Rachel Reeves and Bet365 have cut her to 7/1 from 16/1 to replace Keir Starmer. Nonetheless, she should have been saved for the budget debate over the next couple of days.
    Rishi PM v Rachel LOTO would be very interesting

    The best two politicians in the UK at present
    That's you drummed out of the Boris fan club!
    I have been drummed out of the conservative party completely by @HYUFD
    It's all for the best BigG., you don't want to be hanging around with riff-raff.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    edited October 2021

    Unlike various political gurus who infamously claim to be able to play 4D chess, Rachel Reeves provably can play the game, having won the UK Under-14s Ladies Championship in her youth.


    The Queen's Gambit!
    very good although ironically Beth Harmen in the drama series actually played the Sicilian opening not the Queens Gambit in most of the games
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    JBriskin3 said:

    Kate McCann of Sky News admits Rishi baffled us with Science.

    Did she mean blinded us by bulls***?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Fenman said:

    A wonderful Labour budget from the Tories

    No wealth taxes though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,181
    edited October 2021

    Snap verdict: This was the anti-Osborne budget.

    There was so much in this budget that undid the work of George Osborne's budgets, that I found a lot to like, the centrepiece being the cut in the Universal Credit taper.

    As to how it's being paid for, worth remembering the freeze to thresholds, which means anticipated inflation of 4% results in a considerable tax increase.

    Lots I don't like too, of course, but special mention to the cut in alcohol duty for draught beer and cider - a change that I've suggested on here many times.

    Also the annual cancellation of the fuel duty rise is beyond absurd now. It's a complete fiction at this stage that a rise is planned and then cancelled. It's become such a pointless tradition that Chancellors might continue it right up until the point that sales of fossil-sourced motor fuels are eventually banned.

    Raising fuel duty only extends the hole you need to fill, which grows every year from 2030 onwards (As no new ICE cars are sold). So I think it's a long term fool's errand to raise it now.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer

    I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
    I am sure they can switch to Scotch if needed
    Or to Keir royale
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ping said:

    Fenman said:

    A wonderful Labour budget from the Tories

    No wealth taxes though.
    So New Labour!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    IanB2 said:

    Unlike various political gurus who infamously claim to be able to play 4D chess, Rachel Reeves provably can play the game, having won the UK Under-14s Ladies Championship in her youth.

    She was right to lead off with what most people are seeing day-to-day; the rising price of fuel, home heating, food and the rest; rather than the fiscal issues within the budget that will pass most people by. And to zero in on the NI rise unreasonably handing the bill to ordinary working people.
    It was so refreshing to hear a Labour shadchan focusing laser-like on putting money back in working peoples' pockets and cost of living. That is what Labour is for: the clue, as I often write on here, is in the name.

    She also delivered the speech with absolute aplomb, despite having no rehearsal as it was dropped on her at the last minute.

    Very, very impressive.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    Unlike various political gurus who infamously claim to be able to play 4D chess, Rachel Reeves provably can play the game, having won the UK Under-14s Ladies Championship in her youth.


    The Queen's Gambit!
    very good although ironically Beth Harmen in the drama series actually played the Sicilian opening not the Queens Gambit in most of the games
    The Queens Gambit is a horrible play - best to leave your queen to fight in the middle and long run.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    Brexit effect - from the OBR:

    "While goods trade with the rest of the world experienced similarly sharp falls at the start of the pandemic, in August it had recovered to 7% below average 2019 levels whereas total goods trade with the EU remained down 15%"


    https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1453352247790800897
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2021

    ping said:

    Fenman said:

    A wonderful Labour budget from the Tories

    No wealth taxes though.
    So New Labour!
    I think that’s right. Taken together with the NI increase earlier in the year, it was largely indistinguishable from a new labour budget.

    Dull, competent centrism.
  • Back of a fag paper calculations for those on UC:

    (12% NIC + 20% Income Tax) + 63% Taper = 74.84% Real Marginal Tax Rate pre NIC rise.
    (13.25% NIC + 20% Income Tax) + 63% Taper = 75.3% Real Marginal Tax Rate post NIC rise.
    (13.25% NIC + 20% Income Tax) + 55% Taper = 70% Real Marginal Tax Rate post Taper change.

    So previously people were keeping ~25p in every £1 they earnt, now they'll be keeping 30p in every extra £1 they earn.

    So a big step in the right direction, for them much more than offsetting the NIC rise. But this shouldn't be the end of the matter, its still inexcusable that the poorest in society are facing a 70% Real Tax Rate and that needs to be fixed.

    Nobody should be taxed over half of their marginal income, let alone the poorest.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Unlike various political gurus who infamously claim to be able to play 4D chess, Rachel Reeves provably can play the game, having won the UK Under-14s Ladies Championship in her youth.


    The Queen's Gambit!
    very good although ironically Beth Harmen in the drama series actually played the Sicilian opening not the Queens Gambit in most of the games
    The Sicilian is an opening for black, whereas the Queen's Gambit is an opening for white, so this is not really a contradiction. Although yes, there wasn't really a focus game in the series in which the titular opening actually featured.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    JBriskin3 said:

    Kate McCann of Sky News admits Rishi baffled us with Science.

    Did she mean blinded us by bulls***?
    No. I'll wait for Ed Conway to explain it all to me.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Unlike various political gurus who infamously claim to be able to play 4D chess, Rachel Reeves provably can play the game, having won the UK Under-14s Ladies Championship in her youth.


    The Queen's Gambit!
    very good although ironically Beth Harmen in the drama series actually played the Sicilian opening not the Queens Gambit in most of the games
    That's excellent knowledge. I like a game of chess but am very poor at it and therefore can only play against fellow novices. I read that the actual gameplay in the series is superb – and brings a whole new level to the drama for those that are serious students of the game?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,181
    JBriskin3 said:

    Unlike various political gurus who infamously claim to be able to play 4D chess, Rachel Reeves provably can play the game, having won the UK Under-14s Ladies Championship in her youth.


    The Queen's Gambit!
    very good although ironically Beth Harmen in the drama series actually played the Sicilian opening not the Queens Gambit in most of the games
    The Queens Gambit is a horrible play - best to leave your queen to fight in the middle and long run.
    My personal favourite is the two knights defence, as both black and white.
  • JBriskin3 said:

    Unlike various political gurus who infamously claim to be able to play 4D chess, Rachel Reeves provably can play the game, having won the UK Under-14s Ladies Championship in her youth.


    The Queen's Gambit!
    very good although ironically Beth Harmen in the drama series actually played the Sicilian opening not the Queens Gambit in most of the games
    The Queens Gambit is a horrible play - best to leave your queen to fight in the middle and long run.
    I am no expert (but play a bit) but this is a good video analysing how Beth Harmen played in the Tv series

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65VWIFlc4C4&t=169s
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952
    I'm coming late to this and I understand that there is some financial planning going on at the government level but on the issue of the day anyone who doesn't have a bottle of Fino sherry in the fridge to be drunk while cooking or indeed of an early evening with an olive is surely on the way to savagery.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    edited October 2021
    It was a very well planned budget going back to the NI increase and then leaking good news and finally delivering a clever budget and no further surprise tax increases
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,769
    ping said:

    ping said:

    Fenman said:

    A wonderful Labour budget from the Tories

    No wealth taxes though.
    So New Labour!
    I think that’s right. Taken together with the NI increase earlier in the year, it was largely indistinguishable from a new labour budget.

    Dull, competent centrism.
    £37bn on a failed test and trace system doesn't look very competent to me.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    LOL at the reaction of EuroTwatter.



    (I think our APD is now perhaps only 50% higher than the next one in Europe).

  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Pulpstar said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Unlike various political gurus who infamously claim to be able to play 4D chess, Rachel Reeves provably can play the game, having won the UK Under-14s Ladies Championship in her youth.


    The Queen's Gambit!
    very good although ironically Beth Harmen in the drama series actually played the Sicilian opening not the Queens Gambit in most of the games
    The Queens Gambit is a horrible play - best to leave your queen to fight in the middle and long run.
    My personal favourite is the two knights defence, as both black and white.
    That would have put me on tilt straight away as either black or white so you'd probably beat me at chess.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    TOPPING said:

    I'm coming late to this and I understand that there is some financial planning going on at the government level but on the issue of the day anyone who doesn't have a bottle of Fino sherry in the fridge to be drunk while cooking or indeed of an early evening with an olive is surely on the way to savagery.

    Your fridge must be a sight to behold, swinging open the door to reveal a row of neatly stacked bottles of Fino and a shelf of individually wrapped single olives.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    Pulpstar said:

    Snap verdict: This was the anti-Osborne budget.

    There was so much in this budget that undid the work of George Osborne's budgets, that I found a lot to like, the centrepiece being the cut in the Universal Credit taper.

    As to how it's being paid for, worth remembering the freeze to thresholds, which means anticipated inflation of 4% results in a considerable tax increase.

    Lots I don't like too, of course, but special mention to the cut in alcohol duty for draught beer and cider - a change that I've suggested on here many times.

    Also the annual cancellation of the fuel duty rise is beyond absurd now. It's a complete fiction at this stage that a rise is planned and then cancelled. It's become such a pointless tradition that Chancellors might continue it right up until the point that sales of fossil-sourced motor fuels are eventually banned.

    Raising fuel duty only extends the hole you need to fill, which grows every year from 2030 onwards (As no new ICE cars are sold). So I think it's a long term fool's errand to raise it now.
    I would interpret that as an opportunity for ICE duty to help fund the transition has been turned down.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ping said:

    ping said:

    Fenman said:

    A wonderful Labour budget from the Tories

    No wealth taxes though.
    So New Labour!
    I think that’s right. Taken together with the NI increase earlier in the year, it was largely indistinguishable from a new labour budget.

    Dull, competent centrism.
    Hmmm, as to your last statement.

    As I recall the charge against Brown and Darling budgets by the Tories was one of "the books don't balance". Well if that was a central plank of New Labour budgets Sunak's budget dovetails in nicely.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,783
    Mr. S, the government of Boris Johnson doesn't do strategic.

    To be fair, in many areas (notably energy) this has been a failing of others too. But especially so now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    ping said:

    ping said:

    Fenman said:

    A wonderful Labour budget from the Tories

    No wealth taxes though.
    So New Labour!
    I think that’s right. Taken together with the NI increase earlier in the year, it was largely indistinguishable from a new labour budget.

    Dull, competent centrism.
    The big news on Rishi is that despite getting the job for fear that his predecessor wouldn’t perform as the clown’s patsy, he seems to have managed to keep his boss out of it and consequently followed through on being both dull and competent.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I'm coming late to this and I understand that there is some financial planning going on at the government level but on the issue of the day anyone who doesn't have a bottle of Fino sherry in the fridge to be drunk while cooking or indeed of an early evening with an olive is surely on the way to savagery.

    Your fridge must be a sight to behold, swinging open the door to reveal a row of neatly stacked bottles of Fino and a shelf of individually wrapped single olives.
    Crazy talk. The olive fridge is full to brimming. As is the sherry fridge.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,181
    JBriskin3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Open bets midpoint -£95. 55 mentions of billion ?

    It trips off the tongue to billionaire Rishi
    Confirmed
    4 "billion" and 51 "Bn" in the budget speech text as published.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    Farooq said:

    It was a very well planned budget going back to the NI increase and then leaking good news and finally delivering a clever budget and no further surprise tax increases

    You've been through the detail very quickly.
    There isn't much to it and most people who read the budget know the quick find shortcuts that allow you to pick up the facts of interest...

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    One incredible thing to note is that the OBR originally forecast unemployment to peak at 12%, now its forecast to peak at 5.2%

    5% used to be considered full employment. Incredible to have a recession where unemployment peaks at 0.2% above that.

    The story beneath is that the burden of working, and supporting the rest of us through taxation, is falling on a diminishing proportion of the population. There are far too many middle aged and older people who think that ‘managing’ a few rental properties is an occupation.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,234

    Pulpstar said:

    I headed to Tesco for lunch and paid via self serve, so it's the first time I've really noticed - when did the 16 yr old minimum age come in for energy drinks ?

    Shop driven, not law. Possibly concerns about being sued if misused by young kids. Govt have talked about a ban, but afaik not introduced such legislation.
    A kid at my daughters school needed medical attention after drinking too many of some hyper-caffeinated energy drink.

    Some of them have terrifying amounts of caffeine in them.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,174
    Pulpstar said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Open bets midpoint -£95. 55 mentions of billion ?

    It trips off the tongue to billionaire Rishi
    Confirmed
    4 "billion" and 51 "Bn" in the budget speech text as published.
    A billion here, a billion there, and pulpstar's off to the poor house.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Pulpstar said:

    Snap verdict: This was the anti-Osborne budget.

    There was so much in this budget that undid the work of George Osborne's budgets, that I found a lot to like, the centrepiece being the cut in the Universal Credit taper.

    As to how it's being paid for, worth remembering the freeze to thresholds, which means anticipated inflation of 4% results in a considerable tax increase.

    Lots I don't like too, of course, but special mention to the cut in alcohol duty for draught beer and cider - a change that I've suggested on here many times.

    Also the annual cancellation of the fuel duty rise is beyond absurd now. It's a complete fiction at this stage that a rise is planned and then cancelled. It's become such a pointless tradition that Chancellors might continue it right up until the point that sales of fossil-sourced motor fuels are eventually banned.

    Raising fuel duty only extends the hole you need to fill, which grows every year from 2030 onwards (As no new ICE cars are sold). So I think it's a long term fool's errand to raise it now.
    Fuel Duty is a nightmare for Chancellors - it’s one of very few products where the price is very visible, it raises something like £30bn a year, but cars are getting more fuel-efficient and electric, so it’s going to reduce over the next few years. The government needs to find a way to deal with those reduced revenues.
  • Farooq said:

    It was a very well planned budget going back to the NI increase and then leaking good news and finally delivering a clever budget and no further surprise tax increases

    You've been through the detail very quickly.
    Did you even listen to it as you claim you do not listen or watch the media
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,234
    JBriskin3 said:

    Kate McCann of Sky News admits Rishi baffled us with Science.

    You mean he used maths more complex than 2+2?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    .
    IanB2 said:

    ping said:

    ping said:

    Fenman said:

    A wonderful Labour budget from the Tories

    No wealth taxes though.
    So New Labour!
    I think that’s right. Taken together with the NI increase earlier in the year, it was largely indistinguishable from a new labour budget.

    Dull, competent centrism.
    The big news on Rishi is that despite getting the job for fear that his predecessor wouldn’t perform as the clown’s patsy, he seems to have managed to keep his boss out of it and consequently followed through on being both dull and competent.
    Yes, perhaps Sunak's greatest achievement is dodging the banana skins the clown has thrown under his feet.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Unlike various political gurus who infamously claim to be able to play 4D chess, Rachel Reeves provably can play the game, having won the UK Under-14s Ladies Championship in her youth.


    The Queen's Gambit!
    very good although ironically Beth Harmen in the drama series actually played the Sicilian opening not the Queens Gambit in most of the games
    That's excellent knowledge. I like a game of chess but am very poor at it and therefore can only play against fellow novices. I read that the actual gameplay in the series is superb – and brings a whole new level to the drama for those that are serious students of the game?
    The games are mostly based on real-world historical games, and Garry Kasparov and Bruce Pandolfini were hired as consultants to make sure the games made sense in context. The scene where the US champion tells Harmon she missed something in a previous tournament win (that, luckily, her opponent also missed) is based on a genuine anecdote from when that game was actually played.

    There are some nice YouTube analyses of the games, including discussion of the differences between the actual and fictional versions where relevant.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,783
    Mr. Malmesbury, I was bemused to hear from someone at a rare social gathering a few weeks ago they wouldn't drink coke (I was) because of the caffeine.

    Given I drink tea, and coffee, and regularly have chocolate, it seemed a slightly puritanical approach.

    Mr. Sandpit, don't worry. Sinners' taxes on sugar, carbon dioxide emissions, and smiling will soon plug the gap.
This discussion has been closed.