I thought the research on Sure Start was that it wasn't very effective? Have people changed their minds?
I suspect the past 10 years has demonstrated that anything helping children in the very early years results in longer term achievements and so is cheaper in the long run.
Remember that you can change any figure to generate the result you want when you ask a question in a particular way.
Indeed, an excellently researched and written piece. We've long known, at least since the Nazis and the Stanford experiments, that ordinary people can be extraordinarily brutal and cruel (and, to be fair, courageous and altruistic). But it is still shocking to be reminded of it in such vivid terms.
I thought the research on Sure Start was that it wasn't very effective? Have people changed their minds?
I suspect the past 10 years has demonstrated that anything helping children in the very early years results in longer term achievements and so is cheaper in the long run.
Remember that you can change any figure to generate the result you want when you ask a question in a particular way.
Just read David Franklin's book on Dan Levy's legendary statistics classes at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. I read it for the analysis of what makes his teaching so effective, but it's a great read for anyone wanting a recap on the usefulness and potential abuse of statistical methods to prove political points.
For anyone interested: Invisible Learning: The magic behind a legendary Harvard statistics course
Must be - I'm betting that the focus here will be on businesses.
I'm sticking with my list. One out of five so far.
My three punts are:
1 - Technical measures in the property area, including something to level up treatment of business-owned and personally owned property. Maybe something on foreign owned property, such as making the ATED fully proportional rather than a fixed sum on bands. 2 - Something on IHT that doesn't look like something. 3 - Reform of business rates. 4 - Brucie Bonus - Council Tax changes. Hoping for PPT. 5 - Brucie Bonus 2 - CGT changes.
Indeed, an excellently researched and written piece. We've long known, at least since the Nazis and the Stanford experiments, that ordinary people can be extraordinarily brutal and cruel (and, to be fair, courageous and altruistic). But it is still shocking to be reminded of it in such vivid terms.
Especially the way in which people spiral into more and more extreme sub-groups. Within the group, many social and other interactions are normal.
A classic of this is the PIRA and associated splinter groups - a bunch of lads down the pub. "Up for torturing a tout on Friday? Yeah, nothing else on.... my round isn't it?"....
This creates the effect brilliantly parodied in Death to 2020 by Cristin Milioti as the soccer mom.
No it is not. Traditionally the Shadow Chancellor leads for the Opposition in the budget debate over the next couple of days. Responding off the cuff today, without the benefit of poring over the red book, should be left to another. Yet another example of SKS getting the politics wrong.
Tradition! Pah....
The Shadow Chancellor should always have responded. It beggers belief that they don't.
Cheaper fruit ciders too as well as cheaper Prosecco. This is a budget for MrsT. 😂
Cheaper draft beer. Good for pubs.
Isn’t ‘fruit cider” a tautology? Or do apples not count as fruit anymore and this refers to something else?
No, apples were classed as cider, whereas anything else were classed as flavoured/fruit cider.
Under the old system strawberry flavoured cider etc and drinks like Strongbow Dark Fruits etc were taxed massively more than generic ciders.
Buying a 'cider and black' was massively less taxed than a draft version of it.
Buying a “cider and black” should be seen as incontrovertible evidence that the person is too young to drink (irrespective of their actual age) and result in them being kicked out of the pub.
Cheaper fruit ciders too as well as cheaper Prosecco. This is a budget for MrsT. 😂
Cheaper draft beer. Good for pubs.
Isn’t ‘fruit cider” a tautology? Or do apples not count as fruit anymore and this refers to something else?
No, apples were classed as cider, whereas anything else were classed as flavoured/fruit cider.
Under the old system strawberry flavoured cider etc and drinks like Strongbow Dark Fruits etc were taxed massively more than generic ciders.
Buying a 'cider and black' was massively less taxed than a draft version of it.
Buying a “cider and black” should be seen as incontrovertible evidence that the person is too young to drink (irrespective of their actual age) and result in them being kicked out of the pub.
In a pub I used to frequent, one chap was allowed to drink snakebite. He thought this was a badge of honour. We thought... not.
It needs to go much further still, but this is a step in the right direction.
Hopefully future Budgets will take more steps on this too so instead of boosting the UC starting level cutting the taper instead aids those in work and lowers the poverty trap.
It needs to go much further still, but this is a step in the right direction.
Hopefully future Budgets will take more steps on this too so instead of boosting the UC starting level cutting the taper instead aids those in work and lowers the poverty trap.
Cheaper fruit ciders too as well as cheaper Prosecco. This is a budget for MrsT. 😂
Cheaper draft beer. Good for pubs.
Isn’t ‘fruit cider” a tautology? Or do apples not count as fruit anymore and this refers to something else?
No, apples were classed as cider, whereas anything else were classed as flavoured/fruit cider.
Under the old system strawberry flavoured cider etc and drinks like Strongbow Dark Fruits etc were taxed massively more than generic ciders.
Buying a 'cider and black' was massively less taxed than a draft version of it.
Buying a “cider and black” should be seen as incontrovertible evidence that the person is too young to drink (irrespective of their actual age) and result in them being kicked out of the pub.
In a pub I used to frequent, one chap was allowed to drink snakebite. He thought this was a badge of honour. We thought... not.
One of the most important lessons I learned at school was never mix beer and cider.
I'm absolutely delighted the Chancellor has recognised UC Taper is a tax. Ending this is something I've been personally arguing about for twenty one years (since I started my Economics degree and discovered this).
I am delighted today. We need to end the poverty trap.
This is only a step though. It needs to go further. Much further.
I'm absolutely delighted the Chancellor has recognised UC Taper is a tax. Ending this is something I've been personally arguing about for twenty one years (since I started my Economics degree and discovered this).
I am delighted today. We need to end the poverty trap.
This is only a step though. It needs to go further. Much further.
There has to be some taper though, or are you arguing for a Universal Income?
Cheaper fruit ciders too as well as cheaper Prosecco. This is a budget for MrsT. 😂
Cheaper draft beer. Good for pubs.
Isn’t ‘fruit cider” a tautology? Or do apples not count as fruit anymore and this refers to something else?
No, apples were classed as cider, whereas anything else were classed as flavoured/fruit cider.
Under the old system strawberry flavoured cider etc and drinks like Strongbow Dark Fruits etc were taxed massively more than generic ciders.
Buying a 'cider and black' was massively less taxed than a draft version of it.
Buying a “cider and black” should be seen as incontrovertible evidence that the person is too young to drink (irrespective of their actual age) and result in them being kicked out of the pub.
In a pub I used to frequent, one chap was allowed to drink snakebite. He thought this was a badge of honour. We thought... not.
One of the most important lessons I learned at school was never mix beer and cider.
The er... interesting bit was that he was mixing a scrumpy (made locally) and an equally local ale.
IIRC "Skull Buggerer" and "Bluto's Revenge", respectively.
have budgets always been this political ? Personally i would have liked a bit more honest critique than an hour of saying everything and we are great , magic money tree and all that . It seemed a bit lacking in gravitas frankly
What the taper change actually means is that people with no children on very low incomes who get zero benefits pay their tax so that people with children on incomes even further up the scale will still be able to claim benefits.
I was watching. Rishi seems to have found the UK credit card. To be fair the interest rate on the UK credit card is about 1pc over ten years so it makes sense.
I'm absolutely delighted the Chancellor has recognised UC Taper is a tax. Ending this is something I've been personally arguing about for twenty one years (since I started my Economics degree and discovered this).
I am delighted today. We need to end the poverty trap.
This is only a step though. It needs to go further. Much further.
There has to be some taper though, or are you arguing for a Universal Income?
I am arguing for what Milton Friedman called a Negative Income Tax, or what others have called a Universal Income.
A single defined benefit amount per person, a single defined tax rate, and that's it. Yes those earning millions get the benefit but so frigging they're paying for it and it will just net off their tax rate like tax allowance does (or did) previously.
Currently we have a "New York Skyline" set of tax rates that shoot up and down. 20%, 40%, 60% or 75% depending upon what you earn. Going up and down, up and down with no discernible reason and creating artificial thresholds that discourage work.
I'm absolutely delighted the Chancellor has recognised UC Taper is a tax. Ending this is something I've been personally arguing about for twenty one years (since I started my Economics degree and discovered this).
I am delighted today. We need to end the poverty trap.
This is only a step though. It needs to go further. Much further.
There has to be some taper though, or are you arguing for a Universal Income?
I am sometimes tempted by a temporary reverse tapper.
Get a job. Get double benefits (or something) for a year or 2.
Cheaper fruit ciders too as well as cheaper Prosecco. This is a budget for MrsT. 😂
Cheaper draft beer. Good for pubs.
Isn’t ‘fruit cider” a tautology? Or do apples not count as fruit anymore and this refers to something else?
No, apples were classed as cider, whereas anything else were classed as flavoured/fruit cider.
Under the old system strawberry flavoured cider etc and drinks like Strongbow Dark Fruits etc were taxed massively more than generic ciders.
Buying a 'cider and black' was massively less taxed than a draft version of it.
Buying a “cider and black” should be seen as incontrovertible evidence that the person is too young to drink (irrespective of their actual age) and result in them being kicked out of the pub.
In a pub I used to frequent, one chap was allowed to drink snakebite. He thought this was a badge of honour. We thought... not.
One of the most important lessons I learned at school was never mix beer and cider.
The er... interesting bit was that he was mixing a scrumpy (made locally) and an equally local ale.
IIRC "Skull Buggerer" and "Bluto's Revenge", respectively.
Proper scrumpy is something that needs to be treated with a lot of respect, not mixed with anything.
have budgets always been this political ? Personally i would have liked a bit more honest critique than an hour of saying everything and we are great , magic money tree and all that . It seemed a bit lacking in gravitas frankly
It was beautifully presented budget. Although Reeves's response is very much better that I (or Starmer) could have done.
I thought Sunak was a bit too harsh on the Labour Tory government that reigned from 2010-2019. It wasn't all bad, was it?
One other thought - I have a strong suspicion that right-wingers on here would be apoplectic with rage about the financial profligacy on show if this had been a Labour Party budget.
have budgets always been this political ? Personally i would have liked a bit more honest critique than an hour of saying everything and we are great , magic money tree and all that . It seemed a bit lacking in gravitas frankly
It was beautifully presented budget. Although Reeves's response is very much better that I (or Starmer) could have done.
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 4m Rachel Reeves sounding amazingly confident, for someone doing the worst job in the world on the hoof after stepping in at the last minute
Cheaper fruit ciders too as well as cheaper Prosecco. This is a budget for MrsT. 😂
Cheaper draft beer. Good for pubs.
Isn’t ‘fruit cider” a tautology? Or do apples not count as fruit anymore and this refers to something else?
No, apples were classed as cider, whereas anything else were classed as flavoured/fruit cider.
Under the old system strawberry flavoured cider etc and drinks like Strongbow Dark Fruits etc were taxed massively more than generic ciders.
Buying a 'cider and black' was massively less taxed than a draft version of it.
Buying a “cider and black” should be seen as incontrovertible evidence that the person is too young to drink (irrespective of their actual age) and result in them being kicked out of the pub.
In a pub I used to frequent, one chap was allowed to drink snakebite. He thought this was a badge of honour. We thought... not.
One of the most important lessons I learned at school was never mix beer and cider.
The er... interesting bit was that he was mixing a scrumpy (made locally) and an equally local ale.
IIRC "Skull Buggerer" and "Bluto's Revenge", respectively.
Proper scrumpy is something that needs to be treated with a lot of respect, not mixed with anything.
Indeed. I can remember some interesting afternoons, sitting in the hot sun. Blink and you'd wake up, looking at the stars... the landlord would let the fallen lie in the beer garden until they woke up and found their own way home....
have budgets always been this political ? Personally i would have liked a bit more honest critique than an hour of saying everything and we are great , magic money tree and all that . It seemed a bit lacking in gravitas frankly
It was beautifully presented budget. Although Reeves's response is very much better that I (or Starmer) could have done.
well maybe if you are a tory spin doctor but budgets are supposed to be a grown up presentation of the state of the finances - you would have thought given the massive debt more intelligent contributions could have been made than x billion spend on this and x billion on that
Cheaper fruit ciders too as well as cheaper Prosecco. This is a budget for MrsT. 😂
Cheaper draft beer. Good for pubs.
Isn’t ‘fruit cider” a tautology? Or do apples not count as fruit anymore and this refers to something else?
No, apples were classed as cider, whereas anything else were classed as flavoured/fruit cider.
Under the old system strawberry flavoured cider etc and drinks like Strongbow Dark Fruits etc were taxed massively more than generic ciders.
Buying a 'cider and black' was massively less taxed than a draft version of it.
Buying a “cider and black” should be seen as incontrovertible evidence that the person is too young to drink (irrespective of their actual age) and result in them being kicked out of the pub.
In a pub I used to frequent, one chap was allowed to drink snakebite. He thought this was a badge of honour. We thought... not.
One of the most important lessons I learned at school was never mix beer and cider.
The er... interesting bit was that he was mixing a scrumpy (made locally) and an equally local ale.
IIRC "Skull Buggerer" and "Bluto's Revenge", respectively.
Proper scrumpy is something that needs to be treated with a lot of respect, not mixed with anything.
There’s so much crud floating about in it already, it’s a wonder it is even possible to mix it with anything else.
I'm absolutely delighted the Chancellor has recognised UC Taper is a tax. Ending this is something I've been personally arguing about for twenty one years (since I started my Economics degree and discovered this).
I am delighted today. We need to end the poverty trap.
This is only a step though. It needs to go further. Much further.
There has to be some taper though, or are you arguing for a Universal Income?
I am arguing for what Milton Friedman called a Negative Income Tax, or what others have called a Universal Income.
A single defined benefit amount per person, a single defined tax rate, and that's it. Yes those earning millions get the benefit but so frigging they're paying for it and it will just net off their tax rate like tax allowance does (or did) previously.
Currently we have a "New York Skyline" set of tax rates that shoot up and down. 20%, 40%, 60% or 75% depending upon what you earn. Going up and down, up and down with no discernible reason and creating artificial thresholds that discourage work.
Fair enough. I can think of a few problems, but no system is without those.
Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer
I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 4m Rachel Reeves sounding amazingly confident, for someone doing the worst job in the world on the hoof after stepping in at the last minute
He’s a bright guy but is, and probably always will be, a quintessential student politician. It’s hard to see him ever developing the common touch that a top class politician needs.
Cheaper fruit ciders too as well as cheaper Prosecco. This is a budget for MrsT. 😂
Cheaper draft beer. Good for pubs.
Isn’t ‘fruit cider” a tautology? Or do apples not count as fruit anymore and this refers to something else?
No, apples were classed as cider, whereas anything else were classed as flavoured/fruit cider.
Under the old system strawberry flavoured cider etc and drinks like Strongbow Dark Fruits etc were taxed massively more than generic ciders.
Buying a 'cider and black' was massively less taxed than a draft version of it.
Buying a “cider and black” should be seen as incontrovertible evidence that the person is too young to drink (irrespective of their actual age) and result in them being kicked out of the pub.
In a pub I used to frequent, one chap was allowed to drink snakebite. He thought this was a badge of honour. We thought... not.
One of the most important lessons I learned at school was never mix beer and cider.
The er... interesting bit was that he was mixing a scrumpy (made locally) and an equally local ale.
IIRC "Skull Buggerer" and "Bluto's Revenge", respectively.
Proper scrumpy is something that needs to be treated with a lot of respect, not mixed with anything.
There’s so much crud floating about in it already, it’s a wonder it is even possible to mix it with anything else.
There is a scrumpy-like drink in the Discworld books (scumble I think?) which you can’t mix with water or it will explode...
From my back of a fag paper calculations it looks like a full time employee on UC will be better off after today's budget than if they'd kept the £20 uplift but not touched the taper. Whereas they'd have been worse off even with the Living Wage boost had it not been touched.
Plus the benefit of a lower taper is the poverty trap is reduced for if they do some overtime or get a pay-rise.
People should be able to rely on work and not welfare.
Devil will be in the detail but I'm a happy bunny today. I'm still worse off personally due the NI changes, but the poorest who work are better off so this is a big first step in the right direction.
Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer
I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
Friday night, from the cask, in a sherry bar (tabanco) in Jerez de la Frontera
Higher duty on port and sherry, no rise in duty on whiskey and spirits and cut in duty on beer
I'd have thought port and sherry were the signature drinks of the bigoted retired home owner core vote, and not drink in massive quantities by anybody. When did anyone here last have a glass of sherry?
Last time I visited my octogenarian step-mother: I think that may help your point (apart from the bigoted bit).
He’s a bright guy but is, and probably always will be, a quintessential student politician. It’s hard to see him ever developing the common touch that a top class politician needs.
For many of us, the first time we encountered him was as the NUS President massively in favour of tuition fees, because that’s what Uncle Tony said he needed to believe this week.
From my back of a fag paper calculations it looks like a full time employee on UC will be better off after today's budget than if they'd kept the £20 uplift but not touched the taper. Whereas they'd have been worse off even with the Living Wage boost had it not been touched.
Plus the benefit of a lower taper is the poverty trap is reduced for if they do some overtime or get a pay-rise.
People should be able to rely on work and not welfare.
Devil will be in the detail but I'm a happy bunny today. I'm still worse off personally due the NI changes, but the poorest who work are better off so this is a big first step in the right direction.
What? When I left for lunch, it was going to be Bridget Phillipson. What happened to her - did she drop out too, or was that fake news (put about, presumably, so that people like me would go googling Bridget Phillipson)?
Comments
Remember that you can change any figure to generate the result you want when you ask a question in a particular way.
EDIT: Cheaper Prosecco. MrsT will be happy.
Small brewers relief including small cidermakers announced too. Sparkling wines will pay the same duty as still wines of equivalent strength
Our in house drunk tank @SeanT will be pleased.
Now, we need a champagne tax, on anything with a 'protected name'.
Cheaper draft beer. Good for pubs.
God I'm bored. I try to concentrate on Budget Day but the mind wanders.
Tax bands aren't fixed until 2025 (March)
Corporation tax increase announced (March)
NI increases (September)
Dividend tax increase (September)
For anyone interested: Invisible Learning: The magic behind a legendary Harvard statistics course
My three punts are:
1 - Technical measures in the property area, including something to level up treatment of business-owned and personally owned property. Maybe something on foreign owned property, such as making the ATED fully proportional rather than a fixed sum on bands.
2 - Something on IHT that doesn't look like something.
3 - Reform of business rates.
4 - Brucie Bonus - Council Tax changes. Hoping for PPT.
5 - Brucie Bonus 2 - CGT changes.
Under the old system strawberry flavoured cider etc and drinks like Strongbow Dark Fruits etc were taxed massively more than generic ciders.
Buying a 'cider and black' was massively less taxed than a draft version of it.
A classic of this is the PIRA and associated splinter groups - a bunch of lads down the pub. "Up for torturing a tout on Friday? Yeah, nothing else on.... my round isn't it?"....
This creates the effect brilliantly parodied in Death to 2020 by Cristin Milioti as the soccer mom.
The Shadow Chancellor should always have responded. It beggers belief that they don't.
Or UC taper?
That is good, and something I have been calling for for months :-).
That makes my prediction success .. er .. 2 out of 6.
So Rach will be going for the 10% salami slicing of the amount since 2015, by George the Vineyard.
Wealth taxes to come... ?
Hmmm. Wealth taxes not mentioned. Some things in the docs.
So where is Sir Keith the Absent?
It needs to go much further still, but this is a step in the right direction.
Hopefully future Budgets will take more steps on this too so instead of boosting the UC starting level cutting the taper instead aids those in work and lowers the poverty trap.
I am delighted today. We need to end the poverty trap.
This is only a step though. It needs to go further. Much further.
IIRC "Skull Buggerer" and "Bluto's Revenge", respectively.
A good news,pre-election giveaway budget nonethess.
Nothing on pensions either?
A single defined benefit amount per person, a single defined tax rate, and that's it. Yes those earning millions get the benefit but so frigging they're paying for it and it will just net off their tax rate like tax allowance does (or did) previously.
Currently we have a "New York Skyline" set of tax rates that shoot up and down. 20%, 40%, 60% or 75% depending upon what you earn. Going up and down, up and down with no discernible reason and creating artificial thresholds that discourage work.
Get a job. Get double benefits (or something) for a year or 2.
LabourTory government that reigned from 2010-2019. It wasn't all bad, was it?One other thought - I have a strong suspicion that right-wingers on here would be apoplectic with rage about the financial profligacy on show if this had been a Labour Party budget.
gabyhinsliff
@gabyhinsliff
·
4m
Rachel Reeves sounding amazingly confident, for someone doing the worst job in the world on the hoof after stepping in at the last minute
A star is born.
Plus the benefit of a lower taper is the poverty trap is reduced for if they do some overtime or get a pay-rise.
People should be able to rely on work and not welfare.
Devil will be in the detail but I'm a happy bunny today. I'm still worse off personally due the NI changes, but the poorest who work are better off so this is a big first step in the right direction.