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What will Rishi’s PM chances look like after today’s budget? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    moonshine said:

    Morning all

    Has Hoyle cancelled Rishi yet?

    I'm not sure that he can - unless he really does want to torpedo the Treasury Bench by allowing a stack of UQs about the budget before Sunak is allowed to summarise the various media rounds in his actual speech.

    Given that Hoyle is trying to hold the upper hand against the government I can't see this - the Budget Speech is one of the big set-piece parliamentary events. How he skewers government business after the speech is more likely the tactic he will use.
    This is silly season stuff. If the Speaker denied a government with a huge majority from reading a finance bill he would be out on his arse for politicising the office of Speaker.
    Indeed. So I expect he will bookend it with a broadside of criticism and then torpoedo passage of the Finance Bill by allowing as many disruptive back bench / opposition UQs etc as Erskine May allows.

    By the book. In direct contrast to the Treasury Bench.
    Oh give over. You sound like a stereotypical old person complaining about the kids music without realising every generation has done the same.

    This happens every single year. The Treasury leaks like a sieve, the Speaker acts all indignant. Its been going on so long even the Leader of the House himself was once a backbencher who was famous for being indignant before he became Leader of the House.
    Not every year. Forgive me if my memory is faulty but wasn't Dalton obliged to resign in 1947 for briefing the press about details of the forthcoming budget.

    You may argue that there has been a slow but steady erosion of the precedent over the years but the acceleration towards briefing the media rather than MPs has been on steroids during the Johnson Government. Now this maybe Team Johnson briefing to undermine Team Sunak or vice versa. Whatever, it is bad form, parliament is sovereign (not the Daily Telegraph) and isn't that what we were told and sold during the EU Referendum?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,174
    I’ve heard two “working families” but no “hard working families”.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Taz said:

    Climate activists have stormed and are occupying the Science Museum in protest at them accepting sponsorship money from fossil fuel companies, or some other such guff.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/london-protesters-storm-science-museum-and-plan-to-occupy-venue-all-night/ar-AAPYSjI?ocid=entnewsntp

    Seeing as it's half term i'm sure all the kids going there will love their day ruined..

  • Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    15m
    Confirmed:
    @RachelReevesMP
    will do Labour's Budget response

    That is sensible
    No it is not. Traditionally the Shadow Chancellor leads for the Opposition in the budget debate over the next couple of days. Responding off the cuff today, without the benefit of poring over the red book, should be left to another. Yet another example of SKS getting the politics wrong.
    And who pays attention to the debate of the next couple of days/

    The initial response to the Budget is broadcast and what gets attention. If the Shadow Chancellor isn't up to the job then that's a real concern.
    If either party believed that, then the convention would have been abandoned long ago. Here, Reeves should be saved till after the Labour boffins have pored over the red book for all the bad news Rishi strangely forgot to mention in the House.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    TimS said:

    Very good opportunity for Reeves today. Reminds me of the moment in Blair & Brown when Gordon stepped in to deliver the response when a junior shadow treasury spokesman.

    Yup. Also, she has the advantage of not having to worry overnight about it, as it's just been dropped on her. Let's see how she goes.
  • 0.7% International Aid returned by 2024/25.

    Don't agree with that at all. Spending as a percentage should have been abolished, we should spend because its the right thing to do not piss our taxes away in order to hit a spending target. 🤦‍♂️
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited October 2021


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    15m
    Confirmed:
    @RachelReevesMP
    will do Labour's Budget response

    That is sensible
    No it is not. Traditionally the Shadow Chancellor leads for the Opposition in the budget debate over the next couple of days. Responding off the cuff today, without the benefit of poring over the red book, should be left to another. Yet another example of SKS getting the politics wrong.
    Good opportunity for Rachel though. She's probably chuffed to get the gig.
  • Seems to be a few sips of water so far.
  • Is Sir Keir really chickening out of doing the Budget response? Extraordinary if true. This is traditionally the most difficult set piece for the LotO. However, his reputation can be massively enhanced if done well. All very odd.
  • Taz said:

    Climate activists have stormed and are occupying the Science Museum in protest at them accepting sponsorship money from fossil fuel companies, or some other such guff.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/london-protesters-storm-science-museum-and-plan-to-occupy-venue-all-night/ar-AAPYSjI?ocid=entnewsntp

    Seeing as it's half term i'm sure all the kids going there will love their day ruined..
    It's kids doing it
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Student_Climate_Network
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,174
    Lots of billions in that section.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention🚨

    📉Our LOWEST Con vote share since the last general election.

    🌳Con 37 (-3)
    🌹Lab 35 (=)
    🔶LDM 8 (=)
    ♻️Grn 7 (+2)
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿SNP 5 (+1)
    ⬜️Other 10 (+2)

    22-24 Oct, 2,258 UK adults

    (Changes from 15-17 Oct) https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1453282468199608327/photo/1

    Electoral calculus gives Conservatives 320 seats, so 6 short of a majority on the new boundaries.

    So Boris could stay PM but he would need confidence and supply from the DUP and NI Unionists
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=37&LAB=35&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=22.3&SCOTLAB=18.3&SCOTLIB=6.3&SCOTReform=0.7&SCOTGreen=0.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48.3&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
    What if you move ≈ 3% from Green to Lab?
    I would suspect still Conservatives most seats, but who will C and S with the Tories now? I would guess Labour need to be a handful of points ahead of the Conservatives before they are Labour most seats.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372

    0.7% International Aid returned by 2024/25.

    Don't agree with that at all. Spending as a percentage should have been abolished, we should spend because its the right thing to do not piss our taxes away in order to hit a spending target. 🤦‍♂️

    All those charities, Quango's and NGO's who are recipients of some of this money will be rubbing their hands in anticipation, while demanding it is pulled forward to next year.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782
    edited October 2021

    Foxy said:

    Bridget Phillipson will be responding to the Budget speech

    Who?

    Frankly ridiculous not to have the Shadow Chancellor do it.
    I just cannot understand where Rachel Reeves is

    Starmer isolates, labour deputy Rayner and shadow COE Reeves missing, Miliband deputising at PMQS, and Phillipson who is a light weight responds to Rishi

    This is the state of UKs official opposition
    With Starmer testing positive, perhaps his closest colleagues are needing to isolate, at least until they have negative PCR back.
    Seems Rachel is responding
    You said you were keen on her earlier, but I didn't realise you were on first-name terms!
    As I think I reported before I am part of a campaign that deals with most MPs. It has cross party support. MPs range from those that provide fantastic support to those who just ignore us. However Rachel Reeves and her office comes bottom by someway by the level of incompetence and disorganisation, far worse in fact than those who just ignore you as at least you know where you stand with them. To make matters worse at the time she was the shadow DWP secretary. Hopeless.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,179
    tlg86 said:

    Lots of billions in that section.

    Could be an expensive budget if he carries on :p
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Is Sir Keir really chickening out of doing the Budget response? Extraordinary if true. This is traditionally the most difficult set piece for the LotO. However, his reputation can be massively enhanced if done well. All very odd.

    He has Covid, that's not chickening out.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Is Sir Keir really chickening out of doing the Budget response? Extraordinary if true. This is traditionally the most difficult set piece for the LotO. However, his reputation can be massively enhanced if done well. All very odd.

    Hasn't he got Covid and hence is not even allowed to do it?
  • Taz said:

    0.7% International Aid returned by 2024/25.

    Don't agree with that at all. Spending as a percentage should have been abolished, we should spend because its the right thing to do not piss our taxes away in order to hit a spending target. 🤦‍♂️

    All those charities, Quango's and NGO's who are recipients of some of this money will be rubbing their hands in anticipation, while demanding it is pulled forward to next year.
    Not a penny of taxes should routinely go to charities etc, except via Gift Aid.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    edited October 2021
    Sunak announces £11.5 bilion for 180,000 new affordable homes
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    ping said:

    Boris if you’re going to wear a mask, wear it properly, y’eejit

    Why - they are merely theatre anyway. Look at Sunak spouting his stuff with no mask on. If it wasn't theatre they would be wearing masks when speaking not when sitting silent.
  • Is Sir Keir really chickening out of doing the Budget response? Extraordinary if true. This is traditionally the most difficult set piece for the LotO. However, his reputation can be massively enhanced if done well. All very odd.

    Hasn't he got Covid and hence is not even allowed to do it?
    Ah okay. If he's got COVID then all is forgiven.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372

    Taz said:

    0.7% International Aid returned by 2024/25.

    Don't agree with that at all. Spending as a percentage should have been abolished, we should spend because its the right thing to do not piss our taxes away in order to hit a spending target. 🤦‍♂️

    All those charities, Quango's and NGO's who are recipients of some of this money will be rubbing their hands in anticipation, while demanding it is pulled forward to next year.
    Not a penny of taxes should routinely go to charities etc, except via Gift Aid.
    I agree but it does, and quite a lot of it too. In effect they become arms of the govt while, at the same time, campaigning and lobbying the govt to implement policies they want. Seems odd.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    This seems to be Brownite.

    A deluge of statistics designed to be impossible to understand. And lots of multiyear totals.

    And what sounds like a reinvention of Sure Start.
  • Seems like buying billion would have been a good bet?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372
    HYUFD said:

    Sunak announces £11.5 bilion for 180,000 new affordable homes

    Define affordable, that's the key. And where are they going.

    Cheap houses on Stoke and Burnley are not really needed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,179
    edited October 2021

    Seems like buying billion would have been a good bet?

    I've sold it at 34 lol. But at £5 a pop, was thinking of £10.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    Taz said:

    Zarah Sultana at PMQ's, where do labour get these student politics types from ?

    The NUS.
  • MattW said:

    This seems to be Brownite.

    A deluge of statistics designed to be impossible to understand. And lots of multiyear totals.

    And what sounds like a reinvention of Sure Start.

    If I didn't know that they probably intend delivering only about 25% of this I could very much get behind this budget. Very New Labour in words, I doubt it will be in detail and practice over the next few months and years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak announces £11.5 bilion for 180,000 new affordable homes

    Define affordable, that's the key. And where are they going.

    Cheap houses on Stoke and Burnley are not really needed.
    Cheap houses to buy there are to preserve the Tory majority
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    0.7% International Aid returned by 2024/25.

    Don't agree with that at all. Spending as a percentage should have been abolished, we should spend because its the right thing to do not piss our taxes away in order to hit a spending target. 🤦‍♂️

    There is some merit in fixing spending as a % of GDP. Some defects too, but if you were to fix NHS and state pension spending to a set percentage of GDP then it would concentrate minds on (a) how best to use the resources available and (b) how to increase GDP so that more resources were created.

    There's probably a better way to calculate how much we spend on international aid (perhaps relate it to how much our per capita GDP exceeds the median), but having it related to our ability to pay seems sensible.
  • HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak announces £11.5 bilion for 180,000 new affordable homes

    Define affordable, that's the key. And where are they going.

    Cheap houses on Stoke and Burnley are not really needed.
    Cheap houses to buy there are to preserve the Tory majority
    No - they are the right thing to do
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    Nice trolling on leveling up Labour.
  • LOL Sunak pointing at Opposition MPs as he names places getting Levelling Up funds, including ... Doncaster ... represented by one Ed Miliband who is doing the response to the Budget. 😂
  • Bridget Phillipson will be responding to the Budget speech

    Where are Rayner and Rachel Reeves

    Labour seem to be in chaos today
    Ed M at the helm, right?
  • Taz said:

    0.7% International Aid returned by 2024/25.

    Don't agree with that at all. Spending as a percentage should have been abolished, we should spend because its the right thing to do not piss our taxes away in order to hit a spending target. 🤦‍♂️

    All those charities, Quango's and NGO's who are recipients of some of this money will be rubbing their hands in anticipation, while demanding it is pulled forward to next year.
    Not a penny of taxes should routinely go to charities etc, except via Gift Aid.
    In which case, you will be glad to hear this;

    (Also it actually confirms an additional year of aid cuts beyond what we'd previously been told).

    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1453328189338628104?s=20

    (Though stop-start generally doesn't lead to good spending in "lives saved or improved per pound" terms, which is why medium term stability is a good thing in many areas.)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    edited October 2021
    Has 'barnstorming' been backed
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak announces £11.5 bilion for 180,000 new affordable homes

    Define affordable, that's the key. And where are they going.

    Cheap houses on Stoke and Burnley are not really needed.
    Cheap houses to buy there are to preserve the Tory majority
    Cheap is relative though. Affordable by the current definition in many parts of London and the South East helps no one.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    I’m waiting for the tax rises
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976


    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    15m
    Confirmed:
    @RachelReevesMP
    will do Labour's Budget response

    That is sensible
    No it is not. Traditionally the Shadow Chancellor leads for the Opposition in the budget debate over the next couple of days. Responding off the cuff today, without the benefit of poring over the red book, should be left to another. Yet another example of SKS getting the politics wrong.
    And who pays attention to the debate of the next couple of days/

    The initial response to the Budget is broadcast and what gets attention. If the Shadow Chancellor isn't up to the job then that's a real concern.
    If either party believed that, then the convention would have been abandoned long ago. Here, Reeves should be saved till after the Labour boffins have pored over the red book for all the bad news Rishi strangely forgot to mention in the House.
    If it wasn't Reeves, Starmer would've had to give the job to Rayner.

    He made the right call.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    edited October 2021
    Tax relief for the arts doubled and for museums extended
  • 0.7% International Aid returned by 2024/25.

    Don't agree with that at all. Spending as a percentage should have been abolished, we should spend because its the right thing to do not piss our taxes away in order to hit a spending target. 🤦‍♂️

    There is some merit in fixing spending as a % of GDP. Some defects too, but if you were to fix NHS and state pension spending to a set percentage of GDP then it would concentrate minds on (a) how best to use the resources available and (b) how to increase GDP so that more resources were created.

    There's probably a better way to calculate how much we spend on international aid (perhaps relate it to how much our per capita GDP exceeds the median), but having it related to our ability to pay seems sensible.
    If you do it over a cycle and say that spending not spent this year can be rolled over to next year's budget then yes I agree.

    But if its "use it or lose it" on even worse "you must use it" on an annual basis then people just piss the money away to ensure they spent it rather than think on how best to use it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701

    MattW said:

    This seems to be Brownite.

    A deluge of statistics designed to be impossible to understand. And lots of multiyear totals.

    And what sounds like a reinvention of Sure Start.

    If I didn't know that they probably intend delivering only about 25% of this I could very much get behind this budget. Very New Labour in words, I doubt it will be in detail and practice over the next few months and years.
    It is pretty depressing really. SureStart basically closed by Osborne, now being restarted by Sunak. What a waste of time and energy stopping it originally and then starting again never mind the effect on families.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Somewhat inconvenient and badly planned that the Budget clashes with the cricket.
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Foxy said:

    Bridget Phillipson will be responding to the Budget speech

    Who?

    Frankly ridiculous not to have the Shadow Chancellor do it.
    I just cannot understand where Rachel Reeves is

    Starmer isolates, labour deputy Rayner and shadow COE Reeves missing, Miliband deputising at PMQS, and Phillipson who is a light weight responds to Rishi

    This is the state of UKs official opposition
    With Starmer testing positive, perhaps his closest colleagues are needing to isolate, at least until they have negative PCR back.
    Seems Rachel is responding
    Big_G in chaos this afternoon.
    Saying it as it is reported
    Your opinions got ahead of the facts.
    I quoted sources but never mind, you said you do not listen to the news
  • MattW said:

    This seems to be Brownite.

    A deluge of statistics designed to be impossible to understand. And lots of multiyear totals.

    And what sounds like a reinvention of Sure Start.

    If I didn't know that they probably intend delivering only about 25% of this I could very much get behind this budget. Very New Labour in words, I doubt it will be in detail and practice over the next few months and years.
    It is pretty depressing really. SureStart basically closed by Osborne, now being restarted by Sunak. What a waste of time and energy stopping it originally and then starting again never mind the effect on families.
    Wouldn't have needed to be stopped if Brown hadn't pissed all the money away.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    edited October 2021
    Here it comes...

    If HS2 is not mentioned, it may be a goner.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,872
    edited October 2021
    MattW said:

    This seems to be Brownite.

    A deluge of statistics designed to be impossible to understand. And lots of multiyear totals.

    And what sounds like a reinvention of Sure Start.

    Yes but also a lot of records *since 2010* confirming Boris's running against Cameron and May and shooting Labour foxes. Note Rishi also recalled a number of Boris's campaign slogans.

    ETA also forecast growth numbers tailed off into the future, after the bounce back.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    LOL Sunak pointing at Opposition MPs as he names places getting Levelling Up funds, including ... Doncaster ... represented by one Ed Miliband who is doing the response to the Budget. 😂

    Rachel is doing the response I think, not Ed. However, he also mentioned Leeds West I think!
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak announces £11.5 bilion for 180,000 new affordable homes

    Define affordable, that's the key. And where are they going.

    Cheap houses on Stoke and Burnley are not really needed.
    Personally I think they should create many new villages across the country. Where I live no one wants any more housebuilding (there has been lots in the last 10 years). However, I can think of several good locations in the vicinity where new villages could be created.

    Site them near existing main roads and ideally railways. Build a primary school, community centre, local shop and park at the centre. Have a variety of house designs and sizes. Let people create their own new communities. I suspect it would be much more popular than just continuing to expand existing locations.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Seems like buying billion would have been a good bet?

    There are always lots of billionses early up, in the macroeconomic announcements and high profile tax and spending policy announcements. They become noticeably thinner on the ground the longer the speech goes on.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    A strange mix of lecture on fiscal responsibility and spending more money on pretty much everything.
  • I think selling billion was definitely a big loser sorry Pulpstar. Bet you're glad you only did it for £5 now.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    MattW said:

    Here it comes...

    If HS2 is not mentioned, it may be a goner.

    Good point
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,174

    LOL Sunak pointing at Opposition MPs as he names places getting Levelling Up funds, including ... Doncaster ... represented by one Ed Miliband who is doing the response to the Budget. 😂

    Rachel is doing the response I think, not Ed. However, he also mentioned Leeds West I think!
    And Leicester South.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    That’s a lot of billions mentioned there.
  • More buses for Yorkshire lawyers. :wink:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897

    MattW said:

    This seems to be Brownite.

    A deluge of statistics designed to be impossible to understand. And lots of multiyear totals.

    And what sounds like a reinvention of Sure Start.

    Yes but also a lot of records *since 2010* confirming Boris's running against Cameron and May and shooting Labour foxes. Note Rishi also recalled a number of Boris's campaign slogans.
    Quite so, remember a lot of Labour Leave voters who voted for Brown and Ed Miliband voted Tory for the first time in 2019 for Boris and most UKIP voters in 2015 voted Tory in 2017 and 2019.

    Meanwhile a number of Conservative Remain voters who voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 voted for Labour in 2017 or the LDs in 2019.

    So Boris has a different coalition to the one Cameron had
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    AlistairM said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak announces £11.5 bilion for 180,000 new affordable homes

    Define affordable, that's the key. And where are they going.

    Cheap houses on Stoke and Burnley are not really needed.
    Personally I think they should create many new villages across the country. Where I live no one wants any more housebuilding (there has been lots in the last 10 years). However, I can think of several good locations in the vicinity where new villages could be created.

    Site them near existing main roads and ideally railways. Build a primary school, community centre, local shop and park at the centre. Have a variety of house designs and sizes. Let people create their own new communities. I suspect it would be much more popular than just continuing to expand existing locations.
    I'm keener on allowing gradual growth in existing villages. I would like to see 1% a year.

    Far better than frozen-in-aspic policies.

  • Sienna Rodgers
    @siennamarla
    ·
    6m
    Angela Rayner couldn't do PMQs as she is still on bereavement leave.

    Surely all words beyond "PMQs" were superfluous
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372
    MattW said:

    Here it comes...

    If HS2 is not mentioned, it may be a goner.

    'levelling up'
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,417
    Where’s all this cash coming from? Or are these giveaways over a three or four year period
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    MattW said:

    AlistairM said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak announces £11.5 bilion for 180,000 new affordable homes

    Define affordable, that's the key. And where are they going.

    Cheap houses on Stoke and Burnley are not really needed.
    Personally I think they should create many new villages across the country. Where I live no one wants any more housebuilding (there has been lots in the last 10 years). However, I can think of several good locations in the vicinity where new villages could be created.

    Site them near existing main roads and ideally railways. Build a primary school, community centre, local shop and park at the centre. Have a variety of house designs and sizes. Let people create their own new communities. I suspect it would be much more popular than just continuing to expand existing locations.
    I'm keener on allowing gradual growth in existing villages. I would like to see 1% a year.

    Far better than frozen-in-aspic policies.
    1%/year would be fine. Many places have seen rates far higher than that though in recent years.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,793
    Snap reaction, the OBR estimates seem out of date. Don't see how GDP will only be 6.5% growth this year.

    That means next year's spring statement will also have big reductions in borrowing baked in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    AlistairM said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak announces £11.5 bilion for 180,000 new affordable homes

    Define affordable, that's the key. And where are they going.

    Cheap houses on Stoke and Burnley are not really needed.
    Personally I think they should create many new villages across the country. Where I live no one wants any more housebuilding (there has been lots in the last 10 years). However, I can think of several good locations in the vicinity where new villages could be created.

    Site them near existing main roads and ideally railways. Build a primary school, community centre, local shop and park at the centre. Have a variety of house designs and sizes. Let people create their own new communities. I suspect it would be much more popular than just continuing to expand existing locations.
    More Poundburies, the Prince of Wales would be delighted
  • IanB2 said:

    A strange mix of lecture on fiscal responsibility and spending more money on pretty much everything.

    They will probably make much of the spending off book somehow to hit their fiscal responsibility numbers. Will be enough for most of the fiscal hawks as long as they can plausibly claim they are being responsible.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372

    Where’s all this cash coming from? Or are these giveaways over a three or four year period

    I think we are going to find out in the next 30 or so minutes.
  • Billion is being used expansively
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479


    Sienna Rodgers
    @siennamarla
    ·
    6m
    Angela Rayner couldn't do PMQs as she is still on bereavement leave.

    Surely all words beyond "PMQs" were superfluous
    Perhaps so, but that's a typically ill-judged and tasteless comment from you, given the reason for her absence.
  • Easier visas. 👍
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206


    Sienna Rodgers
    @siennamarla
    ·
    6m
    Angela Rayner couldn't do PMQs as she is still on bereavement leave.

    Surely all words beyond "PMQs" were superfluous
    Normally I'd be all for mocking Rayner, but it seems a bit unfair to make a jibe like that in this particular circumstance.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,793

    IanB2 said:

    A strange mix of lecture on fiscal responsibility and spending more money on pretty much everything.

    They will probably make much of the spending off book somehow to hit their fiscal responsibility numbers. Will be enough for most of the fiscal hawks as long as they can plausibly claim they are being responsible.
    No, they've got higher GDP growth baked in compared to what the OBR is projecting. That will allow for continual reductions in the deficit while keeping spending going up.
  • MattW said:

    This seems to be Brownite.

    A deluge of statistics designed to be impossible to understand. And lots of multiyear totals.

    And what sounds like a reinvention of Sure Start.

    If I didn't know that they probably intend delivering only about 25% of this I could very much get behind this budget. Very New Labour in words, I doubt it will be in detail and practice over the next few months and years.
    It is pretty depressing really. SureStart basically closed by Osborne, now being restarted by Sunak. What a waste of time and energy stopping it originally and then starting again never mind the effect on families.
    Why would they care about the effects on families? Sure start was one of the few good headline policies from Labour's 3rd term, needlessly scrapped by Osbrown and likely creating damage to families that cost more to fix than was saved.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372
    theProle said:


    Sienna Rodgers
    @siennamarla
    ·
    6m
    Angela Rayner couldn't do PMQs as she is still on bereavement leave.

    Surely all words beyond "PMQs" were superfluous
    Normally I'd be all for mocking Rayner, but it seems a bit unfair to make a jibe like that in this particular circumstance.
    Kinder politics Lib Dem style.

    She's a terrible politician but I wish her nothing but the best in her recent loss.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,228
    AlistairM said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak announces £11.5 bilion for 180,000 new affordable homes

    Define affordable, that's the key. And where are they going.

    Cheap houses on Stoke and Burnley are not really needed.
    Personally I think they should create many new villages across the country. Where I live no one wants any more housebuilding (there has been lots in the last 10 years). However, I can think of several good locations in the vicinity where new villages could be created.

    Site them near existing main roads and ideally railways. Build a primary school, community centre, local shop and park at the centre. Have a variety of house designs and sizes. Let people create their own new communities. I suspect it would be much more popular than just continuing to expand existing locations.
    Heretic. Burn him!

    Seriously - Compared to the modern attempts at planned communities... well, check out the prices.

    For a reasonably modern version of this - checkout the story of Chiswick. Built exactly as you describe - services and facilities built, street paved. Then plots sold - often as one whole side of the street
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372
    Easing rules on pension pots investing. That will end well.
  • Rishi doing more for American cloud computing companies.
  • Where’s all this cash coming from? Or are these giveaways over a three or four year period

    Productivity growth. We're no longer deflating our country by seeking low-paid minimum wage jobs supported by in-work benefits.
  • theProle said:


    Sienna Rodgers
    @siennamarla
    ·
    6m
    Angela Rayner couldn't do PMQs as she is still on bereavement leave.

    Surely all words beyond "PMQs" were superfluous
    Normally I'd be all for mocking Rayner, but it seems a bit unfair to make a jibe like that in this particular circumstance.
    Why? She can't attend today as she's on bereavement leave - and that is sad for her and the family.

    But she demonstrated aptly why she can't do PMQs and she will be unable to do PMQs even if she is available.

    We shouldn't be weaponising hate against politicians. No more traitors, scum or death references. That isn't to say we have to always say nice things or ignore the really bad ones.
  • Lots of sips of water as well as billions it seems. Buying those two was probably a big winner.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    Taz said:

    Easing rules on pension pots investing. That will end well.

    He may mean not continuing with the planned increase in minimum age to 57 (from 55)?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035
    AlistairM said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak announces £11.5 bilion for 180,000 new affordable homes

    Define affordable, that's the key. And where are they going.

    Cheap houses on Stoke and Burnley are not really needed.
    Personally I think they should create many new villages across the country. Where I live no one wants any more housebuilding (there has been lots in the last 10 years). However, I can think of several good locations in the vicinity where new villages could be created.

    Site them near existing main roads and ideally railways. Build a primary school, community centre, local shop and park at the centre. Have a variety of house designs and sizes. Let people create their own new communities. I suspect it would be much more popular than just continuing to expand existing locations.
    I would be more in favour of one or two big garden cities. That would localise opposition, and make it easier to provide large-scale transport infrastructure. Also permit only architectual styles used in Poundbury, Prince Charles's town.
  • Where’s all this cash coming from? Or are these giveaways over a three or four year period

    Productivity growth. We're no longer deflating our country by seeking low-paid minimum wage jobs supported by in-work benefits.
    No more boom and bust.
  • Ed and Rachel in deep conversation on the opposition bench
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,793
    The Tories are now the party of big government and the state involving itself in everything.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    We're onto the cheap gimmicks already
  • Ed and Rachel in deep conversation on the opposition bench

    Milliband has done the response a few times. A bit of "this is where I went wrong" and off she goes. Reeves is a class act. Great opportunity for her.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    edited October 2021
    Internal air passenger duty cut but extra air passenger duty for long-haul flights.

    Good for regional airlines and the environment
  • More expensive long haul flights. :(
  • More expensive long haul flights. :(

    It's hardly a surprise.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    I think the Air Passenger Duty thing is largely hot air.

    The last time I looked, our basic APD cost is double the next lowest on in Europe.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    MaxPB said:

    The Tories are now the party of big government and the state involving itself in everything.

    The current iteration of Tories maybe. Along with Labour.

    Big opportunity for LibDems one would have thought.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Stocky said:

    ping said:

    Boris if you’re going to wear a mask, wear it properly, y’eejit

    Why - they are merely theatre anyway. Look at Sunak spouting his stuff with no mask on. If it wasn't theatre they would be wearing masks when speaking not when sitting silent.
    All the masks on the Tory side, that fraternal atmosphere didn't last so long.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    Business rates property improvement relief created
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    ping said:

    Boris if you’re going to wear a mask, wear it properly, y’eejit

    Why - they are merely theatre anyway. Look at Sunak spouting his stuff with no mask on. If it wasn't theatre they would be wearing masks when speaking not when sitting silent.
    All the masks on the Tory side, that fraternal atmosphere didn't last so long.
    Not Rees-Mogg and Truss though
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    50% business rates discount for businesses in the hospitality and retail sectors up to £110,000
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132
    edited October 2021

    Where’s all this cash coming from? Or are these giveaways over a three or four year period

    Most are.

    50% Business Rate cut should save my gym around 6k a year.

    Are alkie duties fully devolved, or a mix?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    I thought the research on Sure Start was that it wasn't very effective? Have people changed their minds?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    MattW said:

    Where’s all this cash coming from? Or are these giveaways over a three or four year period

    Most are.
    So we can hear them announced all over again in Nov 22
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Bad news for Big Reds.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366

    I thought the research on Sure Start was that it wasn't very effective? Have people changed their minds?

    I suspect the past 10 years has demonstrated that anything helping children in the very early years results in longer term achievements and so is cheaper in the long run.

    Remember that you can change any figure to generate the result you want when you ask a question in a particular way.
This discussion has been closed.