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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum polling is getting much tighter. Gone are th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum polling is getting much tighter. Gone are the double digit phone poll leads
After a months of very large REMAIN leads in the phone polls we’ve now had three in the past week which are all showing that the race is getting much tighter. Ipsos and ComRes have 8% REMAIN leads while Survation has it at 11% – all very similar.
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1. The migration crisis
2. The end of the Government's honeymoon period.
Will we never learn?
Luckily for future little Freggles-s, a number of countries participate in ERASMUS that are not part of the EU.
http://erasmus-plus.ro/erasmus-participating-countries-programme-erasmus-plus/
Even my apolitical friends are noticing the increasing histrionics from the Remain side.
Rolling out mega-rich CEOs to whine about how their profit margins are going to get hit, just doesn't cut the mustard for the average leftie.
Seriously, I am for Leave but I am not enjoying the comments from quite a number of my fellow Leavers, not at all. Richard Nabavi is a big boy who can look after himself but the hounding and moaning about a speech by Nicky Morgan (I mean Nicky Morgan for goodness sake, who the hell cares what she said) was tedious, unpleasant and worst of all, seriously boring. It is putting me off coming here, I won't deny it.
Cameron right to worry about turnout - REMAIN only 2 points ahead if factor in turnout (46%LEAVE vs 48% REMAIN) https://t.co/9zAcNL0uCK
I suspect Dave, utterly naively, thought he could fight a good fight, win clean and let the country and the party move on. In his dreams. The referendum is going to cause lasting and insoluble divisions. He could have won clean if he were on the right side of the argument - but he's opted for the establishment.
The weather is getting much warmer. Let's watch the migrant flow rate across the water. It won't be going down!
Assuming everyone turns up for qualifying...
Perhaps he really thinks turning up at Charlbury farmers' market from time to time keeps him in touch with ordinary people. Or perhaps not.
That's doing nothing for Labour either way.
Leave is scaremongering too, but the scares are subtler.
That is truly subtle.
It is nearly half the Parliamentary Party, and loyalists like Gove are for Leave that have surprised Dave.
Silly arguments based on nothing, and awful social media cred.
No one did this to her except her speech writer, and CCHQ.
Agreed. A lot of Leavers betraying their inner anger and frustration. Me - I think Remain will probably sneak it. But that isn't going to be the end of the story! We'll have another referendum and another until we get the right answer. Or the unfixed Eurozone will collapse first and it will all be moot. The sky won't fall in on the 24th June whatever we choose.
Woophs....
That may be a net advantage for Leave.
Morgan made a foolish comment, people said it was foolish and others denied it, despite the overwhelming evidence of it being a foolish comment.
Personally I have a sneaky feeling New York will be much closer than the polls are showing, though Clinton will probably edge it.
Perhaps he should have taken an opinion poll of his MPs first...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3513072/Deadly-cost-open-borders-Damning-dossier-lists-catalogue-murders-rapes-committed-Britain-50-foreign-criminals-let-EU-rules.html
Well that was true after King Henry VIII broke with Rome, but it was 100% the right decision to do so.
There's a risk either way. I'd sooner we take the risky option which gives us the power to mitigate it and exploit opportunities in our favour, as opposed to the risky option which puts us under the yoke of Brussels.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Runnymede not the last time an opt-out from European integration proved wise.
I've read reports elsewhere that he regrets his red mist, well it's a bit late now.
His bed, he made it. I'm very sad we're here, but I'm not giving him a free pass.
"I did an ERASMUS exchange year as a student, it was great, no tuition fees and a €3000 bursary for living costs. That will disappear if we Leave"
No it won't. This is another myth that got killed long ago in spite of some people still trying to repeat it. There are 37 countries in the ERASMUS programme and only 28 in the EU (31 in the EEA). Obviously simple maths tells you that being a member of the EU or the EEA is not a prerequisite for being in the ERASMUS programme.
But the all time turn-off is the six-form common room debaters that think the peak of witty repartee is to look at someone's detailed posting, choose the most implausible possible reading of it and then reply with a fatuous one liner like "So you favour executing alcoholics do you?" Blurgh
Technically that isn't scaremongering - it's a fact about what has already happened.
He needs to be aiming for 63% according to my calcs
I am currently laying him on Betfair ;p
Fifty is a tiny handful, and reading through the list one is tempted so say, is that the best you can do?' but its quite powerful with some groups of voters nevertheless.
Like many others, I feel that the pros and cons between the two choices is a finely balanced one and it was the extremely thin gruel on offer which pushed me decisively, if without any great enthusiasm, into the LEAVE camp.
Having just seen High Rise for the second time and thus being reminded of Thatcher that could be why my equilibrium is all over the place
She claimed that the youth of today feel much more European than their parents and grandparents did. They don't regard going to the EU as going abroad at all. They expect the same services, she might have mentioned medical care, she might have mentioned mobile phone tariffs, she might have had in mind Schengen and the lack of visas, whatever.
It's a point of view. I don't agree with it. I don't share it. I don't want to spend hours doing a syntactical analysis of what she said or have other people doing it on my half. She is just not that interesting, she really isn't.
That would be remain type scaremongering.
These are the most serious, so I'm not sure what the overall increased number of victims of crime from all criminals who have come to this country is, but it would likely be statistically significant.
That is scaremongering. They would not have needed visas or background checks to enter the UK if we were not members of the EU.
Betting on Hillary to beat Sanders feels a bit like cheering on Man United when the minnow was 3-0 down and is now at 3-1 10 minutes into the second half hoping to take the game to an unlikely replay.
Remainers seem to think its a GOOD thing that some bad eggs get in with the good. Largely, I guess, because they are pretty well off and don;t have to live alongside these miscreants.
Two soldiers who brutally beat up two disabled teenagers 'for entertainment' have been sentenced to more than 15 years at Merthyr Crown Court.
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-03-29/soldiers-jailed-for-beating-up-disabled-teenagers-in-brutal-attack/
I think he'd be in a better place than now although I accept it would have prolonged the uncertainty and risk of 'events'.
http://thehill.com/policy/defense/274521-poll-half-of-american-voters-back-trumps-muslim-ban
US orders families of US diplomats, military personnel to leave posts in southern Turkey due to security fears: https://t.co/Fw8RVgmi8S
Mr. Max, that does irk me.
Those with a sentimental attachment to warm beer cricket on the village green and other notions of times gone by are for 'Leave'. Fortunately the motivation to vote is going to be much stronger among those to whom it makes a serious difference
http://www.totalpolitics.com/blog/463351/boundary-review-rules-reveal-timetable-forconstituency-change.thtml
@MichelleFields you are totally delusional. I never touched you. As a matter of fact, I have never even met you.
@SunNewsdesk: Free to kill: Europe let 45 thugs into Britain who went on to murder, rape and GBH https://t.co/t4zl5m9DpC https://t.co/093Leeujim
Nothing to do with Government policies then,example the new government national living wage.
I'm not so much bothered about the prize money, bearing in mind it's very much of a longshot any way, but well before the first such competition was announced, I requested that a supplementary question be included, asking entrants to state whether their referendum voting intention had changed, and if so in which direction over the previous say three months. Such a question was never in fact incorporated, but I live in hope that it might be next time around, which could provide valuable trend information in relation to the betting markets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pd1vWYr51tk
Mr. Urquhart, outrageous behaviour. The only appropriate place to wear such a thing is on a police-approved and protected march through the centre of London, surely?
Its conspicuously 50 more murders and rapes than would have happened if they had not be let into the country. It would also be enlightening to know if EU Immigrants on average commit more or less rapes and murder per capita than UK citizens.