"Mr. Trump is also coming under fire from outside groups. The anti-tax Club for Growth, which endorsed Mr. Cruz in the last few days, will begin a $1 million advertising expenditure in Wisconsin.
The spot calls on people to vote for Mr. Cruz to stop Mr. Trump, saying that Mr. Kasich “can’t do it.” And the group Our Principles PAC, which was founded to stop Mr. Trump in January, will begin reserving airtime, according to its strategist. "
"Can't do it" = "Can't win here"?!?!?!
I'm increasingly believing that Trump wont get the GOP nomination. The republican party is dead and it's politicians know it's dead, so probably as a final act they will blow themselves up just to take Trump with them.
What comes after though? Will a new centre-right party rise from the ruins, and how long will it take? Will the southern populists break off like they did in the 60's, or will the religious fundamentalists of the west break off ?
The problem is that a new party will need new ideas and new people who have not been associated with the republican party.
So far the only thing that is certain is: Winner Democrats, by facing a bitterly divided opposition.
'It all seems pretty much zero-sum to me, in the context of an economy that isn't growing very rapidly.'
The economic literature is pretty clear on this. Immigration has distributional impacts, most notably being good for immigrants. It has very small, if any, effects on GDP per head.
@Tyson - I think it is undeniable that British-born tradesmen face greater competition for work than they did before the free movement of people within in the EU kicked in. Of course, the Tories signed up for this for the reasons you outline, but it only happened because of the EU. Increased competition for jobs has surely pushed down rates and improved service. Bad news for producers, good news for consumers. It's only natural that they would want to restrict the competition they face.
What evidence is there it is good news for consumers ? If the effect of mass immigration is lower prices but you get taxed more to subsidise low wages, pay more for your house or rent because the infrastructure can't accommodate the rapid influx and have your schools, hospitals and public services overloaded despite having to pay higher taxes for them. That might not be the killer bargain you think.
It all seems pretty much zero-sum to me, in the context of an economy that isn't growing very rapidly.
It's the Brown Treasury Model which Osborne has continued.
One incident sticks with me. I was meeting a contact in Birmingham who suggested a Starbucks. I;m in the queue watching one east European serving another East European a coffee from a US mulitnat that doesnt pay tax. How does that work ?
I think that Remain have ramped up Project Fear way, way too early. It is already losing its impact on people and if they continue to ratchet it up Vote Leave can start putting out spoof posters "Vote Remain or a plague of frogs will descend on Britain" etc...
Even my apolitical friends are noticing the increasing histrionics from the Remain side.
For me, whenever Remain opens its mouth, it sounds like a bad parent trying to discipline an unruly child. Shrill, shouty, empty, overstated and illogical threats.
Leave is scaremongering too, but the scares are subtler.
Subtle in the sense that being whacked across the head by an iron bar is subtle?
Technically that isn't scaremongering - it's a fact about what has already happened.
As a % of EU immigrants to the UK, what do those 50 criminals represent?
A disingenuous comparison.
Its conspicuously 50 more murders and rapes than would have happened if they had not be let into the country. It would also be enlightening to know if EU Immigrants on average commit more or less rapes and murder per capita than UK citizens.
How many of the 50 are from EEA countries and would have been let in anyway?
Quote from the Guardian "Corey Lewandowski, Donald Trump’s campaign manager, will appear before a judge on May 4 to face his charge of misdemeanor battery, reports the AP.”
He’s accused of “grabbing” Michelle Fields.
The Donalds official comment is "Mr. Lewandowski is absolutely innocent of this charge. He will enter a plea of not guilty and looks forward to his day in court. He is completely confident that he will be exonerated.”
Looks like someone very rich is paying the lawrers bills, too.
I think your response is thoughtful and considered and right to some extent. But I think you are wrong about the time frames- in the short term nationalism will be fuelled by immigration. In the long term less so, as we integrate more effectively.
@Tykejohno It really is lowest common denominator stuff to blame migrants (and poor people, usually those people on benefits) for things not going well. It is what feeds the Mail, Sun, Express and detracts where the real problems lie.
Rich people are getting richer. The concentration of wealth is getting more acute and uneven. Access to generating wealth is getting harder. Public services have been downgraded as the politics of austerity takes hold.
Politicians, rich corporations, and the wealthy elite are the ones responsible for making things worse. Osborne cannot even deal with the generous tax reliefs on pension for the most wealthy- and has to target poor, disabled people instead because of the protected interests of the rich who already have all the cards stacked in their favour.
Really, and you seek to blame the migrants......
If you feel so awful or guilty about this, why not give your fortune away, or make some of your BTL properties available to refugees?
It's hard to feel any sympathy toward someone who's whining about losing more due to the increased costs of currency transactions and the effect it may have on their pampered lifestyle, than many people earn in a month.
the British people will have to accept a 'European' identity.
You'd have to be particularly ignorant to be 'British' and not also 'European'. I suppose it's conceivable for someone who immigrated from outside Europe to the UK to hold such an identity, but otherwise it would require extreme cognitive dissonance.
This is actually an accurate analogy, though I prefer the COMECON analogy as the most accurate to describe the EU and it's inner works, including it's economic performance.
Many top EU officials are ex-communists anyway, the mentality and the slogans are still there
"Wide variations in economic size and level of economic development also tended to generate divergent interests among the member countries. All these factors combined to give rise to significant differences in the member states' expectations about the benefits to be derived from membership in Comecon. Unity was provided instead by political and ideological factors."
And yet implying that it would be impossible to have such an agreement or situation outside of the EU is just fine and dandy and shouldn't go unchallenged.
It's part and parcel of the EU's free movement of people, objection to which is Leave's most potent argument. They can hardly complain if the Remain side take them at their word when they say they want 'control of our borders'.
Like many remainders you tend to wilful mishear the word "control" as "close", I believe this is a difference.
What controls would you introduce that would prevent criminals from Europe entering the UK? Would it be background checks for all prior to coming here?
Personally, I would require a points based visa for anyone from anywhere that planned to stay for more than six months. It works very nicely for the Canadians and the Australians.
At the VERY least we should be able to blacklist people we don't want in the country, specifically those we have thrown out. At the moment we cannot throw out an EU citizen after they get out of their 10-stretch for armed robbery, and even it we could we cant stop the coming back in again. Any nation state that is worth the name as the ability to declare foreign national "persona non grata" and have the removed from the country and blacklisted from returning, EU member states being some of the very small number of countries that cannot.
Pretty sure it takes less than 6 months to murder someone.
Good luck adapting Heathrow and all the UK European embassies for the thousands of visa applications and in depth immigration interviews that will be required.
She was saying that the young would be most affected by Brexit. How's that being positive?
Any fair-minded person, reading that speech as a piece of advocacy for the Remain side and one aimed at young people, would accept that it's a well-written and positive speech. That's not to say I agree with it, I'm just being objective about the quality of how she puts the case, in exactly the same way as I was when I said that Michael Gove's piece explaining why he was supporting Leave was excellent (and Boris's wasn't).
The speech was titled "leaving the EU risks a lost generation" Any 'fair-minded' person that calls that being positive must be reading it very selectively.
I think your response is thoughtful and considered and right to some extent. But I think you are wrong about the time frames- in the short term nationalism will be fuelled by immigration. In the long term less so, as we integrate more effectively.
I don't think Humans have a good record at integration so far. Balkans, Ukraine, Middle East, Afghanistan, Pakistan, UK and Ireland, Rwanda, Somalia, and many many other places.
Immigration can fuel Nationalism in many ways.
Definition of Short, Medium and Long term are up for discussion!
I believe the threat to our (or our children's) long term peace and security is greater from EU integration than it is from national individuality.
The speech was titled "leaving the EU risks a lost generation" Any 'fair-minded' person that calls that being positive must be reading it very selectively.
Sure, if you read just the headline. The speech itself deals with the short-term and long-term risks of Brexit, and makes a positive case for the EU.
Any 'fair-minded' person that calls that being positive must be reading it very selectively.
You may notice Richard litters his posts with these kinds of references ie 'reasonable people think...','moderate opinion thinks'. It's a tired old rhetorical trick.
I can only assume he is trying to get us to giggle by claiming he is 'objective' though.
The speech was titled "leaving the EU risks a lost generation" Any 'fair-minded' person that calls that being positive must be reading it very selectively.
Sure, if you read just the headline. The speech itself deals with the short-term and long-term risks of Brexit, and makes a positive case for the EU.
Quite striking polarisation in the Ipsos Mori poll.
Conservative and UKIP supporters break 64/36% for Leave. Labour and Lib Dems break 73/27% for Remain.
18-34 Year olds break 68/21% for Remain. 55+ break 38/54%. 35-54 year olds break 44/46% (the tipping point at which Leave leads is 45 years old and above).
AB's break 61/30% for Remain, and C1's 62/31%. C2's break 32/57% and DE's 37/46%. (I wonder why there should be such a big difference between C1 and C2 voters when their economic circumstances are very similar).
Certainty to vote is 45% among 18-34 year olds, 72% among 35-54, and 79% among 55+
Among AB's it's 74%, 68% among C1's, 65% among C2's and 58% among DE's.
Any 'fair-minded' person that calls that being positive must be reading it very selectively.
You may notice Richard litters his posts with these kinds of references ie 'reasonable people think...','moderate opinion thinks'. It's a tired old rhetorical trick.
I can only assume he is trying to get us to giggle by claiming he is 'objective' though.
And anyone who thinks otherwise is mad, insane, etc.
So I understand. Not a single possible argument. Anyone who claims there is is, by definition, dishonest, a Europhile, a Quisling, a traitor, a careerist, or all of those.
By the way, Helle Thorning, former Social Democrat leader and wife of the younger Kinnock, has stepped down and is coming to live in London, where she'll run the charity Save the Children.
Please can someone Photoshop Jeremy Corbyn as Emperor Palpatine watching with glee while chubby Darth Vader (Cameron) and chubby Luke Skywalker (Boris) fight each other to the death?
By the way, Helle Thorning, former Social Democrat leader and wife of the younger Kinnock, has stepped down and is coming to live in London, where she'll run the charity Save the Children.
@Tyson - I think it is undeniable that British-born tradesmen face greater competition for work than they did before the free movement of people within in the EU kicked in. Of course, the Tories signed up for this for the reasons you outline, but it only happened because of the EU. Increased competition for jobs has surely pushed down rates and improved service. Bad news for producers, good news for consumers. It's only natural that they would want to restrict the competition they face.
What evidence is there it is good news for consumers ? If the effect of mass immigration is lower prices but you get taxed more to subsidise low wages, pay more for your house or rent because the infrastructure can't accommodate the rapid influx and have your schools, hospitals and public services overloaded despite having to pay higher taxes for them. That might not be the killer bargain you think.
Who says it is a killer bargain? I am just saying that less competition drives up prices and reduces the incentive to offer speedy, high-quality service; while it is understandable that tradespeople who get less work, or have to charge lower rates than they used to, will want to reduce the competition they face. Overall it is not a zero sum game and immigration will have very different impacts depending on who you are. The lowest paid may see some reduction in their wages and their access to public services may worsen, but because they pay no income tax and receive benefits they may also be benefiting from the contributions made by EU immigrants who do pay income tax.
By the way, Helle Thorning, former Social Democrat leader and wife of the younger Kinnock, has stepped down and is coming to live in London, where she'll run the charity Save the Children.
Pays very nicely that gig....£250k a year plus perks.
By the way, Helle Thorning, former Social Democrat leader and wife of the younger Kinnock, has stepped down and is coming to live in London, where she'll run the charity Save the Children.
Pays very nicely that gig....£250k a year plus perks.
Cameron photo op incoming... 5....4...3...2...1...
Mr. Freggles, I think a lot of PBers are undecided, or decided but being polite. I know it gets a bit testy sometimes, but the way around that is to not buy into it.
And, in a few days, we can all marvel at how excellent my new book is, and unite the site in admiration. [On a related note, Mr. T hasn't been around for a little while. My mum got The Ice Twins for Christmas and just started it this week, finishing it in three days, which is shockingly fast].
@Tyson - I think it is undeniable that British-born tradesmen face greater competition for work than they did before the free movement of people within in the EU kicked in. Of course, the Tories signed up for this for the reasons you outline, but it only happened because of the EU. Increased competition for jobs has surely pushed down rates and improved service. Bad news for producers, good news for consumers. It's only natural that they would want to restrict the competition they face.
What evidence is there it is good news for consumers ? If the effect of mass immigration is lower prices but you get taxed more to subsidise low wages, pay more for your house or rent because the infrastructure can't accommodate the rapid influx and have your schools, hospitals and public services overloaded despite having to pay higher taxes for them. That might not be the killer bargain you think.
Who says it is a killer bargain? I am just saying that less competition drives up prices and reduces the incentive to offer speedy, high-quality service; while it is understandable that tradespeople who get less work, or have to charge lower rates than they used to, will want to reduce the competition they face. Overall it is not a zero sum game and immigration will have very different impacts depending on who you are. The lowest paid may see some reduction in their wages and their access to public services may worsen, but because they pay no income tax and receive benefits they may also be benefiting from the contributions made by EU immigrants who do pay income tax.
I thought you being a leftie and all that should be worrying more about getting additional money in to the pockets of people less well off than you rather than justifying US neo liberalism ?
Mr. Freggles, I think a lot of PBers are undecided, or decided but being polite. I know it gets a bit testy sometimes, but the way around that is to not buy into it.
And, in a few days, we can all marvel at how excellent my new book is, and unite the site in admiration. [On a related note, Mr. T hasn't been around for a little while. My mum got The Ice Twins for Christmas and just started it this week, finishing it in three days, which is shockingly fast].
I just find the ding-dong about "the positive case" tedious. Of course a binary choice is going to have positive and negative arguments on both sides, and the status quo can't offer anything different by definition.
Is it possible that the Health'n'Safety suicide-belt selfie guy was being rather smart? Getting a photo of the 'suicide belt' and the face of the hijacker out to the police and security services might have been very helpful.
By the way, Helle Thorning, former Social Democrat leader and wife of the younger Kinnock, has stepped down and is coming to live in London, where she'll run the charity Save the Children.
Pays very nicely that gig....£250k a year plus perks.
Much lower income tax in the UK than Denmark as well - who'd have thought it?
By the way if we do leave the EU it will be of no surprise, for more than a generation the popular press is vehemently anti-EU, and economically Britain is the least integrated economy with the EU and it's becoming less and less integrated:
By the way if we do leave the EU it will be of no surprise, for more than a generation the popular press is vehemently anti-EU, and economically Britain is the least integrated economy with the EU and it's becoming less and less integrated:
Oh no, meanwhile we would have trade agreements with outback places like the commonwealth, South America and China, while the EU stagnates and dwindles as a world market, sounds terrible.
@Tyson - I think it is undeniable that British-born tradesmen face greater competition for work than they did before the free movement of people within in the EU kicked in. Of course, the Tories signed up for this for the reasons you outline, but it only happened because of the EU. Increased competition for jobs has surely pushed down rates and improved service. Bad news for producers, good news for consumers. It's only natural that they would want to restrict the competition they face.
What evidence is there it is good news for consumers ? If the effect of mass immigration is lower prices but you get taxed more to subsidise low wages, pay more for your house or rent because the infrastructure can't accommodate the rapid influx and have your schools, hospitals and public services overloaded despite having to pay higher taxes for them. That might not be the killer bargain you think.
Who says it is a killer bargain? I am just saying that less competition drives up prices and reduces the incentive to offer speedy, high-quality service; while it is understandable that tradespeople who get less work, or have to charge lower rates than they used to, will want to reduce the competition they face. Overall it is not a zero sum game and immigration will have very different impacts depending on who you are. The lowest paid may see some reduction in their wages and their access to public services may worsen, but because they pay no income tax and receive benefits they may also be benefiting from the contributions made by EU immigrants who do pay income tax.
I thought you being a leftie and all that should be worrying more about getting additional money in to the pockets of people less well off than you rather than justifying US neo liberalism ?
Like almost everyone else, I want the best possible outcome for the highest number of people. I think the state has a greater role to play in achieving that than people on the right will, but at heart I believe in capitalism and I believe in markets.
Mr. Freggles, I think a lot of PBers are undecided, or decided but being polite. I know it gets a bit testy sometimes, but the way around that is to not buy into it.
And, in a few days, we can all marvel at how excellent my new book is, and unite the site in admiration. [On a related note, Mr. T hasn't been around for a little while. My mum got The Ice Twins for Christmas and just started it this week, finishing it in three days, which is shockingly fast].
I just find the ding-dong about "the positive case" tedious. Of course a binary choice is going to have positive and negative arguments on both sides, and the status quo can't offer anything different by definition.
But we have established that there isn't a status quo case, there is the leave case, or the much more EU case, if there is a positive case for joining a rapidly integrating superstate, and I am sure in many people's eye there is, we should be told about it, rather than fatuous claims about how the bogeyman is going to get us.
I completely agree with this. That is exactly what she was trying to do.
The Remain side are often accused of not putting a positive case. She did, and rather well. As I said earlier, I was somewhat surprised, as she's not someone I've particularly rated in the past.
If the only way to put a positive case is by making stuff up and perpetuating myths then I am really not sure why she bothered.
@Tyson - I think it is undeniable that British-born tradesmen face greater competition for work than they did before the free movement of people within in the EU kicked in. Of course, the Tories signed up for this for the reasons you outline, but it only happened because of the EU. Increased competition for jobs has surely pushed down rates and improved service. Bad news for producers, good news for consumers. It's only natural that they would want to restrict the competition they face.
What evidence is there it is good news for consumers ? If the effect of mass immigration is lower prices but you get taxed more to subsidise low wages, pay more for your house or rent because the infrastructure can't accommodate the rapid influx and have your schools, hospitals and public services overloaded despite having to pay higher taxes for them. That might not be the killer bargain you think.
Who says it is a killer bargain? I am just sahe contributions made by EU immigrants who do pay income tax.
I thought you being a leftie and all that should be worrying more about getting additional money in to the pockets of people less well off than you rather than justifying US neo liberalism ?
Like almost everyone else, I want the best possible outcome for the highest number of people. I think the state has a greater role to play in achieving that than people on the right will, but at heart I believe in capitalism and I believe in markets.
That's something of a non sequitur. You want to stop low wages rising through less competition but then decree a wage hike from HMG called the living wage.
Quite striking polarisation in the Ipsos Mori poll.
Conservative and UKIP supporters break 64/36% for Leave. Labour and Lib Dems break 73/27% for Remain.
18-34 Year olds break 68/21% for Remain. 55+ break 38/54%. 35-54 year olds break 44/46% (the tipping point at which Leave leads is 45 years old and above).
AB's break 61/30% for Remain, and C1's 62/31%. C2's break 32/57% and DE's 37/46%. (I wonder why there should be such a big difference between C1 and C2 voters when their economic circumstances are very similar).
Certainty to vote is 45% among 18-34 year olds, 72% among 35-54, and 79% among 55+
Among AB's it's 74%, 68% among C1's, 65% among C2's and 58% among DE's.
On page 25 is the dead heat on 10/10 certain to vote, and that's based on near 70% turnout.
@Tyson,I like you bit on wealthy elites,what I read on you,to me,you are the wealthy elite.
What I say on my experiences on immigration to my area is totally out of order to you and this from someone living abroad and mentioned the currency transactions you do a month,well people round where I live ,that's a wage a month.
@Tyson - I think it is undeniable that British-born tradesmen face greater competition for work than they did before the free movement of people within in the EU kicked in. Of course, the Tories signed up for this for the reasons you outline, but it only happened because of the EU. Increased competition for jobs has surely pushed down rates and improved service. Bad news for producers, good news for consumers. It's only natural that they would want to restrict the competition they face.
What evidence is there it is good news for consumers ? If the effect of mass immigration is lower prices but you get taxed more to subsidise low wages, pay more for your house or rent because the infrastructure can't accommodate the rapid influx and have your schools, hospitals and public services overloaded despite having to pay higher taxes for them. That might not be the killer bargain you think.
Who says it is a killer bargain? I am just sahe contributions made by EU immigrants who do pay income tax.
I thought you being a leftie and all that should be worrying more about getting additional money in to the pockets of people less well off than you rather than justifying US neo liberalism ?
Like almost everyone else, I want the best possible outcome for the highest number of people. I think the state has a greater role to play in achieving that than people on the right will, but at heart I believe in capitalism and I believe in markets.
That's something of a non sequitur. You want to stop low wages rising through less competition but then decree a wage hike from HMG called the living wage.
My judgement is that less competition is more damaging overall than the government setting minimum wage levels. As someone who believes in the state as a force for good, I don't see a problem with that. In the end, I think we all benefit from an economy in which people earn enough money to live decently on. If you can't pay your employees such amounts then you don't really have a sustainable business whether we are in the EU or not.
@Tyson - I think it is undeniable that British-born tradesmen face greater competition for work than they did before the free movement of people within in the EU kicked in. Of course, the Tories signed up for this for the reasons you outline, but it only happened because of the EU. Increased competition for jobs has surely pushed down rates and improved service. Bad news for producers, good news for consumers. It's only natural that they would want to restrict the competition they face.
What evidence is there it is good news for consumers ? If the effect of mass immigration is lower prices but you get taxed more to subsidise low wages, pay more for your house or rent because the infrastructure can't accommodate the rapid influx and have your schools, hospitals and public services overloaded despite having to pay higher taxes for them. That might not be the killer bargain you think.
Who says it is a killer bargain? I am just sahe contributions made by EU immigrants who do pay income tax.
I thought you being a leftie and all that should be worrying more about getting additional money in to the pockets of people less well off than you rather than justifying US neo liberalism ?
Like almost everyone else, I want the best possible outcome for the highest number of people. I think the state has a greater role to play in achieving that than people on the right will, but at heart I believe in capitalism and I believe in markets.
That's something of a non sequitur. You want to stop low wages rising through less competition but then decree a wage hike from HMG called the living wage.
My judgement is that less competition is more damaging overall than the government setting minimum wage levels. As someone who believes in the state as a force for good, I don't see a problem with that. In the end, I think we all benefit from an economy in which people earn enough money to live decently on. If you can't pay your employees such amounts then you don't really have a sustainable business whether we are in the EU or not.
Unless you control immigration that doesn;t work. If you decree a wage rise all you are going to do si attract more people from poor countries. Who then need all the social infastructure buit and paid for them.
@Tyson - I think it is undeniable that British-born tradesmen face greater competition for work than they did before the free movement of people within in the EU kicked in. Of course, the Tories signed up for this for the reasons you outline, but it only happened because of the EU. Increased competition for jobs has surely pushed down rates and improved service. Bad news for producers, good news for consumers. It's only natural that they would want to restrict the competition they face.
What evidence is there it is good news for consumers ? If the effect of mass immigration is lower prices but you get taxed more to subsidise low wages, pay more for your house or rent because the infrastructure can't accommodate the rapid influx and have your schools, hospitals and public services overloaded despite having to pay higher taxes for them. That might not be the killer bargain you think.
Who says it is a killer bargain? I am just sahe contributions made by EU immigrants who do pay income tax.
I thought you being a leftie and all that should be worrying more about getting additional money in to the pockets of people less well off than you rather than justifying US neo liberalism ?
Like almost everyone else, I want the best possible outcome for the highest number of people. I think the state has a greater role to play in achieving that than people on the right will, but at heart I believe in capitalism and I believe in markets.
That's something of a non sequitur. You want to stop low wages rising through less competition but then decree a wage hike from HMG called the living wage.
My judgement is that less competition is more damaging overall than the government setting minimum wage levels. As someone who believes in the state as a force for good, I don't see a problem with that. In the end, I think we all benefit from an economy in which people earn enough money to live decently on. If you can't pay your employees such amounts then you don't really have a sustainable business whether we are in the EU or not.
Except that it is a national rate and takes no account of regional variations. In some especially northern cities at least a quarter of all jobs are below the living wage and in those cities the local property prices and general cost of living is a fraction of what it is further South.
If a northern business is paying wages that provides enough to live on there even if it isn't enough elsewhere then is it really so unsustainable?
Quite striking polarisation in the Ipsos Mori poll.
Conservative and UKIP supporters break 64/36% for Leave. Labour and Lib Dems break 73/27% for Remain.
18-34 Year olds break 68/21% for Remain. 55+ break 38/54%. 35-54 year olds break 44/46% (the tipping point at which Leave leads is 45 years old and above).
AB's break 61/30% for Remain, and C1's 62/31%. C2's break 32/57% and DE's 37/46%. (I wonder why there should be such a big difference between C1 and C2 voters when their economic circumstances are very similar).
Certainty to vote is 45% among 18-34 year olds, 72% among 35-54, and 79% among 55+
Among AB's it's 74%, 68% among C1's, 65% among C2's and 58% among DE's.
On page 25 is the dead heat on 10/10 certain to vote, and that's based on near 70% turnout.
Remain lead 47 to 46% amongst those 10/10 certain to vote. Tories narrowly back Leave 47% to 44%
The North and Midlands back Leave, the South, London and Scotland back Remain
Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to show he's more complex than stereotype:
Donald Trump attacked Wisconsin governor Scott Walker for failing to raise taxes in order to properly fund schools and roads on Tuesday, in a startling new break from rightwing orthodoxy from the Republican frontrunner.
“There’s a $2.2bn deficit and the schools were going begging and everything was going begging because he didn’t want to raise taxes ’cause he was going to run for president,” said Trump. “So instead of raising taxes, he cut back on schools, he cut back on highways, he cut back on a lot of things.”
Quite striking polarisation in the Ipsos Mori poll.
Conservative and UKIP supporters break 64/36% for Leave. Labour and Lib Dems break 73/27% for Remain.
18-34 Year olds break 68/21% for Remain. 55+ break 38/54%. 35-54 year olds break 44/46% (the tipping point at which Leave leads is 45 years old and above).
AB's break 61/30% for Remain, and C1's 62/31%. C2's break 32/57% and DE's 37/46%. (I wonder why there should be such a big difference between C1 and C2 voters when their economic circumstances are very similar).
Certainty to vote is 45% among 18-34 year olds, 72% among 35-54, and 79% among 55+
Among AB's it's 74%, 68% among C1's, 65% among C2's and 58% among DE's.
Very very heavy leads for Remain amongst ABC1s though. 30%+??
That's an open and shut case.
Leave can't win on those sorts of numbers and, to make a dent in that, they simply have to deal with the question of the economy.
@Tyson - I think it is undeniable that British-born tradesmen face greater competition for work than they did before the free movement of people within in the EU kicked in. Of course, the Tories signed up for this for the reasons you outline, but it only happened because of the EU. Increased competition for jobs has surely pushed down rates and improved service. Bad news for producers, good news for consumers. It's only natural that they would want to restrict the competition they face.
What evidence is there it is good news for consumers ? If the effect of mass immigration is lower prices but you get taxed more to subsidise low wages, pay more for your house or rent because the infrastructure can't accommodate the rapid influx and have your schools, hospitals and public services overloaded despite having to pay higher taxes for them. That might not be the killer bargain you think.
Who says it is a killer bargain? I am just sahe contributions made by EU immigrants who do pay income tax.
I thought you being a leftie and all that should be worrying more about getting additional money in to the pockets of people less well off than you rather than justifying US neo liberalism ?
Like almost everyone else, I want the best possible outcome for the highest number of people. I think the state has a greater role to play in achieving that than people on the right will, but at heart I believe in capitalism and I believe in markets.
That's something of a non sequitur. You want to stop low wages rising through less competition but then decree a wage hike from HMG called the living wage.
My judgement is that les
Except that it is a national rate and takes no account of regional variations. In some especially northern cities at least a quarter of all jobs are below the living wage and in those cities the local property prices and general cost of living is a fraction of what it is further South.
If a northern business is paying wages that provides enough to live on there even if it isn't enough elsewhere then is it really so unsustainable?
Mostly off topic but if anyone ever needed an example of how immigration can help our country then the interview on Sky News just now is a perfect case in point.
Sanjeev Gupta of Liberty House. Buying up Steel works around the country and using them to turn recycled steel into new steel products. Actually increasing employment at the Steel works which had previously been threatened with closure. Visionary and committed to continuing operations in Britain - looking at positive reasons for being here rather than negative. .
Quite striking polarisation in the Ipsos Mori poll.
Conservative and UKIP supporters break 64/36% for Leave. Labour and Lib Dems break 73/27% for Remain.
18-34 Year olds break 68/21% for Remain. 55+ break 38/54%. 35-54 year olds break 44/46% (the tipping point at which Leave leads is 45 years old and above).
AB's break 61/30% for Remain, and C1's 62/31%. C2's break 32/57% and DE's 37/46%. (I wonder why there should be such a big difference between C1 and C2 voters when their economic circumstances are very similar).
Certainty to vote is 45% among 18-34 year olds, 72% among 35-54, and 79% among 55+
Among AB's it's 74%, 68% among C1's, 65% among C2's and 58% among DE's.
Very very heavy leads for Remain amongst ABC1s though. 30%+??
That's an open and shut case.
Leave can't win on those sorts of numbers and, to make a dent in that, they simply have to deal with the question of the economy.
Fast.
Totally agreed. It will be the economy wot won it, stupid.
Most French people would prefer the British border to be in Dover – and most British expect this to happen if we leave the EU
Concerns over immigration are one of the most powerful reasons to support Britain leaving the EU, but the Remain campaign has found an argument which threatens to turn these instincts against Brexit. Back in February David Cameron was rebuked for claiming leaving the EU would give French politicians the chance to "tear up" the agreement which effectively places part of Britain's border with France in Calais.
In March, however, France's economy minister said the agreement would be threatened if Britain left the EU – and soon after French President Francois Hollande said it would have an impact "on the way we handle the situation in terms of immigration".
@Tyson,I like you bit on wealthy elites,what I read on you,to me,you are the wealthy elite.
What I say on my experiences on immigration to my area is totally out of order to you and this from someone living abroad and mentioned the currency transactions you do a month,well people round where I live ,that's a wage a month.
You are the out of touch wealthy elite Tyson.
You'd have to have a heart of stone not to chuckle over Tyson and his currency losses, the poor lamb.
Do you think Britain leaving the European Union would have a positive or negative impact on the following, or would it have no impact on The economy of the United Kingdom
Quite striking polarisation in the Ipsos Mori poll.
Conservative and UKIP supporters break 64/36% for Leave. Labour and Lib Dems break 73/27% for Remain.
18-34 Year olds break 68/21% for Remain. 55+ break 38/54%. 35-54 year olds break 44/46% (the tipping point at which Leave leads is 45 years old and above).
AB's break 61/30% for Remain, and C1's 62/31%. C2's break 32/57% and DE's 37/46%. (I wonder why there should be such a big difference between C1 and C2 voters when their economic circumstances are very similar).
Certainty to vote is 45% among 18-34 year olds, 72% among 35-54, and 79% among 55+
Among AB's it's 74%, 68% among C1's, 65% among C2's and 58% among DE's.
Very very heavy leads for Remain amongst ABC1s though. 30%+??
That's an open and shut case.
Leave can't win on those sorts of numbers and, to make a dent in that, they simply have to deal with the question of the economy.
Quite striking polarisation in the Ipsos Mori poll.
Conservative and UKIP supporters break 64/36% for Leave. Labour and Lib Dems break 73/27% for Remain.
18-34 Year olds break 68/21% for Remain. 55+ break 38/54%. 35-54 year olds break 44/46% (the tipping point at which Leave leads is 45 years old and above).
AB's break 61/30% for Remain, and C1's 62/31%. C2's break 32/57% and DE's 37/46%. (I wonder why there should be such a big difference between C1 and C2 voters when their economic circumstances are very similar).
Certainty to vote is 45% among 18-34 year olds, 72% among 35-54, and 79% among 55+
Among AB's it's 74%, 68% among C1's, 65% among C2's and 58% among DE's.
Very very heavy leads for Remain amongst ABC1s though. 30%+??
That's an open and shut case.
Leave can't win on those sorts of numbers and, to make a dent in that, they simply have to deal with the question of the economy.
Fast.
Don't forget the shy Leave ABC1s.
I do wonder if ABC1s could be shy about supporting Leave and C2DEs could be shy about supporting Remain? The divide is incredible.
Do you think Britain leaving the European Union would have a positive or negative impact on the following, or would it have no impact on The economy of the United Kingdom
Quite striking polarisation in the Ipsos Mori poll.
Conservative and UKIP supporters break 64/36% for Leave. Labour and Lib Dems break 73/27% for Remain.
18-34 Year olds break 68/21% for Remain. 55+ break 38/54%. 35-54 year olds break 44/46% (the tipping point at which Leave leads is 45 years old and above).
AB's break 61/30% for Remain, and C1's 62/31%. C2's break 32/57% and DE's 37/46%. (I wonder why there should be such a big difference between C1 and C2 voters when their economic circumstances are very similar).
Certainty to vote is 45% among 18-34 year olds, 72% among 35-54, and 79% among 55+
Among AB's it's 74%, 68% among C1's, 65% among C2's and 58% among DE's.
Very very heavy leads for Remain amongst ABC1s though. 30%+??
That's an open and shut case.
Leave can't win on those sorts of numbers and, to make a dent in that, they simply have to deal with the question of the economy.
Fast.
And they need to deal with it by raising the spectre of economic disaster if we remain. I'm sorry if it upsets people's sensitivities, but it's the only effective way.
Quite striking polarisation in the Ipsos Mori poll.
Conservative and UKIP supporters break 64/36% for Leave. Labour and Lib Dems break 73/27% for Remain.
18-34 Year olds break 68/21% for Remain. 55+ break 38/54%. 35-54 year olds break 44/46% (the tipping point at which Leave leads is 45 years old and above).
AB's break 61/30% for Remain, and C1's 62/31%. C2's break 32/57% and DE's 37/46%. (I wonder why there should be such a big difference between C1 and C2 voters when their economic circumstances are very similar).
Certainty to vote is 45% among 18-34 year olds, 72% among 35-54, and 79% among 55+
Among AB's it's 74%, 68% among C1's, 65% among C2's and 58% among DE's.
Very very heavy leads for Remain amongst ABC1s though. 30%+??
That's an open and shut case.
Leave can't win on those sorts of numbers and, to make a dent in that, they simply have to deal with the question of the economy.
Fast.
Totally agreed. It will be the economy wot won it, stupid.
Sorry for the ugly mixed phrase.
Ipsos were out by a country mile at this stage of both the GE and Sindy run-ins.
Any reading of their polls must be adjusted for that form.
Quite striking polarisation in the Ipsos Mori poll.
Conservative and UKIP supporters break 64/36% for Leave. Labour and Lib Dems break 73/27% for Remain.
18-34 Year olds break 68/21% for Remain. 55+ break 38/54%. 35-54 year olds break 44/46% (the tipping point at which Leave leads is 45 years old and above).
AB's break 61/30% for Remain, and C1's 62/31%. C2's break 32/57% and DE's 37/46%. (I wonder why there should be such a big difference between C1 and C2 voters when their economic circumstances are very similar).
Certainty to vote is 45% among 18-34 year olds, 72% among 35-54, and 79% among 55+
Among AB's it's 74%, 68% among C1's, 65% among C2's and 58% among DE's.
Very very heavy leads for Remain amongst ABC1s though. 30%+??
That's an open and shut case.
Leave can't win on those sorts of numbers and, to make a dent in that, they simply have to deal with the question of the economy.
Fast.
And they need to deal with it by raising the spectre of economic disaster if we remain. I'm sorry if it upsets people's sensitivities, but it's the only effective way.
Indeed. The Euro is a flawed and failing project which is being enforced in a ruthless and dictatorial fashion by an elite too bone headed to see what it is doing. 25% unemployment in southern Europe; 50% youth unemployment. That is the real face of the EU.
Do you think Britain leaving the European Union would have a positive or negative impact on the following, or would it have no impact on The economy of the United Kingdom
Total Positive Impact 31%
Total Negative Impact 40%
Encouraging. A bit closer.
You can all laugh at me on June 24th, but Leave aren't going to win unless they change those numbers.
People will not vote to make the economy (and thus themselves) worse off.
Do you think Britain leaving the European Union would have a positive or negative impact on the following, or would it have no impact on The economy of the United Kingdom
Total Positive Impact 31%
Total Negative Impact 40%
Encouraging. A bit closer.
You can all laugh at me on June 24th, but Leave aren't going to win unless they change those numbers.
People will not vote to make the economy (and thus themselves) worse off.
Quite striking polarisation in the Ipsos Mori poll.
Conservative and UKIP supporters break 64/36% for Leave. Labour and Lib Dems break 73/27% for Remain.
18-34 Year olds break 68/21% for Remain. 55+ break 38/54%. 35-54 year olds break 44/46% (the tipping point at which Leave leads is 45 years old and above).
AB's break 61/30% for Remain, and C1's 62/31%. C2's break 32/57% and DE's 37/46%. (I wonder why there should be such a big difference between C1 and C2 voters when their economic circumstances are very similar).
Certainty to vote is 45% among 18-34 year olds, 72% among 35-54, and 79% among 55+
Among AB's it's 74%, 68% among C1's, 65% among C2's and 58% among DE's.
Very very heavy leads for Remain amongst ABC1s though. 30%+??
That's an open and shut case.
Leave can't win on those sorts of numbers and, to make a dent in that, they simply have to deal with the question of the economy.
Fast.
And they need to deal with it by raising the spectre of economic disaster if we remain. I'm sorry if it upsets people's sensitivities, but it's the only effective way.
Indeed. The Euro is a flawed and failing project which is being enforced in a ruthless and dictatorial fashion by an elite too bone headed to see what it is doing. 25% unemployment in southern Europe; 50% youth unemployment. That is the real face of the EU.
And they need to frame Remain as a COMMITMENT to the EU. A signing on the dotted line. And they need to raise particular fear about a RESOUNDING Remain victory - if it's a walkover our future is buggered. Soft Remains need to feel good and justified about not voting.
Easy to say you'll vote to Leave now. When the date draws near and fear becomes real, I think a great many will return to Remain.
I think a great many will sit on the sofa.
I am expecting many Labour voters to do this.
Labour "voters" are absolute masters of sitting on the sofa, as Ed found out
I may well sit on the sofa.
I can see no circumstance that will make me vote remain. If I do vote it will be Leave
I am the same , the sofa is looking like my best option. If Cameron is looking for Labour voters to get out and vote remain, it might be a big ask. The Eu in its current state, will make me vote leave, if they push me to vote. Cameron might have that ability to get the Labour leave vote out , but not the remain.
Quite striking polarisation in the Ipsos Mori poll.
Conservative and UKIP supporters break 64/36% for Leave. Labour and Lib Dems break 73/27% for Remain.
18-34 Year olds break 68/21% for Remain. 55+ break 38/54%. 35-54 year olds break 44/46% (the tipping point at which Leave leads is 45 years old and above).
AB's break 61/30% for Remain, and C1's 62/31%. C2's break 32/57% and DE's 37/46%. (I wonder why there should be such a big difference between C1 and C2 voters when their economic circumstances are very similar).
Certainty to vote is 45% among 18-34 year olds, 72% among 35-54, and 79% among 55+
Among AB's it's 74%, 68% among C1's, 65% among C2's and 58% among DE's.
Very very heavy leads for Remain amongst ABC1s though. 30%+??
That's an open and shut case.
Leave can't win on those sorts of numbers and, to make a dent in that, they simply have to deal with the question of the economy.
Fast.
And they need to deal with it by raising the spectre of economic disaster if we remain. I'm sorry if it upsets people's sensitivities, but it's the only effective way.
They need to allay people's fears on the short term risks of being left out in the cold.
They then need to show how much better off people would be with pounds in pockets as a result of quitting CAP, ending EU contributions and striking new trade deals.
Do you think Britain leaving the European Union would have a positive or negative impact on the following, or would it have no impact...
Total Positive Impact 31%
Total Negative Impact 40%
What is the following?
The economy of the United Kingdom
Fixed my original post now
There almost certainly would be some negatives, but I'm fairly confident they won't affect me (or anyone I know/care about).
They would effect my employer, and I.
In all seriousness, I'm sure you'll cope.
Not really, the industry we're closely connected to is dependent on the financial passport.
If we don't get that as part of Brexit, then clients and the industry is screwed
Isn't the standard response that you're in a dying industry and you should retrain ?
We're in a booming industry. Funny thing is, about a year the biggest risk to the industry was perceived to be the EU/Eurozone, now it is Brexit.
I'm fully confident that I can get a new job straight away, but I realise not everyone is as intelligent and brilliant as me, it is those poor souls I worry about, and knock on effects, I can see the Manchester Maserati dealership going out of business.
Do you think Britain leaving the European Union would have a positive or negative impact on the following, or would it have no impact...
Total Positive Impact 31%
Total Negative Impact 40%
What is the following?
The economy of the United Kingdom
Fixed my original post now
There almost certainly would be some negatives, but I'm fairly confident they won't affect me (or anyone I know/care about).
They would effect my employer, and I.
In all seriousness, I'm sure you'll cope.
Not really, the industry we're closely connected to is dependent on the financial passport.
If we don't get that as part of Brexit, then clients and the industry is screwed
So back the EEA/EFTA option then, like many of us Leavers.
Indeed best of both worlds. Given that virtually all cabinet remainers would prefer EEA and virtually all cabinet leavers do too ... and it's the one exit deal that can be easily negotiated within the two year window and before the next general election ... that will almost ceraknly be the outcome anyway.
Comments
The republican party is dead and it's politicians know it's dead, so probably as a final act they will blow themselves up just to take Trump with them.
What comes after though?
Will a new centre-right party rise from the ruins, and how long will it take?
Will the southern populists break off like they did in the 60's, or will the religious fundamentalists of the west break off ?
The problem is that a new party will need new ideas and new people who have not been associated with the republican party.
So far the only thing that is certain is: Winner Democrats, by facing a bitterly divided opposition.
The economic literature is pretty clear on this. Immigration has distributional impacts, most notably being good for immigrants. It has very small, if any, effects on GDP per head.
One incident sticks with me. I was meeting a contact in Birmingham who suggested a Starbucks. I;m in the queue watching one east European serving another East European a coffee from a US mulitnat that doesnt pay tax. How does that work ?
He’s accused of “grabbing” Michelle Fields.
The Donalds official comment is "Mr. Lewandowski is absolutely innocent of this charge. He will enter a plea of not guilty and looks forward to his day in court. He is completely confident that he will be exonerated.”
Looks like someone very rich is paying the lawrers bills, too.
It's hard to feel any sympathy toward someone who's whining about losing more due to the increased costs of currency transactions and the effect it may have on their pampered lifestyle, than many people earn in a month.
Many top EU officials are ex-communists anyway, the mentality and the slogans are still there
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comecon
"Wide variations in economic size and level of economic development also tended to generate divergent interests among the member countries. All these factors combined to give rise to significant differences in the member states' expectations about the benefits to be derived from membership in Comecon. Unity was provided instead by political and ideological factors."
Good luck adapting Heathrow and all the UK European embassies for the thousands of visa applications and in depth immigration interviews that will be required.
The speech was titled "leaving the EU risks a lost generation"
Any 'fair-minded' person that calls that being positive must be reading it very selectively.
Immigration can fuel Nationalism in many ways.
Definition of Short, Medium and Long term are up for discussion!
I believe the threat to our (or our children's) long term peace and security is greater from EU integration than it is from national individuality.
SINDY (-87 DAYS)
Yes 47 / No 53: Survation (Online)
Yes 46 / No 54 Panelbase (Online)
Yes 45 / No 55 Result
Yes 43 / No 57 ICM (Phone)
Yes 42 / No 58 TNS (Face to Face)
Yes 40 / No 60 Ipsos (Phone)
Yes 40 / No 60 Yougov (Online)
GE2015 (–87 DAYS): Right = Con+UKIP
Right 54 / Others 46: Survation (Online)
Right 51 / Others 49: Comres (Online)
Right 51 / Others 49 Result
Right 48 / Others 52 Populus (Online)
Right 48 / Others 52 Yougov (Online)
Right 48 / Others 52 Ashcroft (Phone)
Right 48 / Others 52 Comres (Phone)
Right 47 / Others 53 Opinium (Online)
Right 45 / Others 55 TNS (Online)
Right 43 / Others 57 Ipsos (Phone)
Right 41 / Others 59 ICM (Phone)
You may notice Richard litters his posts with these kinds of references ie 'reasonable people think...','moderate opinion thinks'. It's a tired old rhetorical trick.
I can only assume he is trying to get us to giggle by claiming he is 'objective' though.
Conservative and UKIP supporters break 64/36% for Leave. Labour and Lib Dems break 73/27% for Remain.
18-34 Year olds break 68/21% for Remain. 55+ break 38/54%. 35-54 year olds break 44/46% (the tipping point at which Leave leads is 45 years old and above).
AB's break 61/30% for Remain, and C1's 62/31%. C2's break 32/57% and DE's 37/46%. (I wonder why there should be such a big difference between C1 and C2 voters when their economic circumstances are very similar).
Certainty to vote is 45% among 18-34 year olds, 72% among 35-54, and 79% among 55+
Among AB's it's 74%, 68% among C1's, 65% among C2's and 58% among DE's.
http://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/714840961659105280/photo/1
"You're the one not being positive.... Poo Face!"
And, in a few days, we can all marvel at how excellent my new book is, and unite the site in admiration. [On a related note, Mr. T hasn't been around for a little while. My mum got The Ice Twins for Christmas and just started it this week, finishing it in three days, which is shockingly fast].
Federica Mogherini is another.
Leave 52 / Remain 48 TNS (online)
Leave 51 / Remain 49 Survation (online)
Leave 51 / Remain 49 ORB (online)
Leave 51 / Remain 49 Opinium (online)
Leave ?? / Remain ?? Result ??
Leave 49 / Remain 51 ICM (online)
Leave 49 / Remain 51 BMG (online)
Leave 48 / Remain 52 Yougov (online)
Leave 46 / Remain 54 Comres (phone)
Leave 46 / Remain 54 Ipsos (phone)
Leave 43 / Remain 57 Survation (phone)
I clearly need to re-read Foucault's Pendulum again. Sigh.
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Intra-EU_trade_in_goods_-_recent_trends
What I say on my experiences on immigration to my area is totally out of order to you and this from someone living abroad and mentioned the currency transactions you do a month,well people round where I live ,that's a wage a month.
You are the out of touch wealthy elite Tyson.
If a northern business is paying wages that provides enough to live on there even if it isn't enough elsewhere then is it really so unsustainable?
The North and Midlands back Leave, the South, London and Scotland back Remain
Trump 31
Kasich 29
Cruz 27
Trump 50
Kasich 24
Cruz 16
Clinton 47
Sanders 36
Trump 36
Cruz 35
Kasich 14
That's an open and shut case.
Leave can't win on those sorts of numbers and, to make a dent in that, they simply have to deal with the question of the economy.
Fast.
Sanjeev Gupta of Liberty House. Buying up Steel works around the country and using them to turn recycled steel into new steel products. Actually increasing employment at the Steel works which had previously been threatened with closure. Visionary and committed to continuing operations in Britain - looking at positive reasons for being here rather than negative. .
Trump 42 .. Cruz 32 .. Kasich 22
Clinton 54 .. Sanders 36
National - NBC
Trump 48 .. Cruz 27 .. Kasich 18
Clinton 49 .. Sanders 43
Wisconsin - Optimus
Trump 31 .. Kasich 31 .. Cruz 27
New York - Optimus
Trump 50 .. Kasich 24 .. Cruz 16
Via RCP
Sorry for the ugly mixed phrase.
Most French people would prefer the British border to be in Dover – and most British expect this to happen if we leave the EU
Concerns over immigration are one of the most powerful reasons to support Britain leaving the EU, but the Remain campaign has found an argument which threatens to turn these instincts against Brexit. Back in February David Cameron was rebuked for claiming leaving the EU would give French politicians the chance to "tear up" the agreement which effectively places part of Britain's border with France in Calais.
In March, however, France's economy minister said the agreement would be threatened if Britain left the EU – and soon after French President Francois Hollande said it would have an impact "on the way we handle the situation in terms of immigration".
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/29/majority-french-favour-moving-border-dover/
Do you think Britain leaving the European Union would have a positive or negative impact on the following, or would it have no impact on The economy of the United Kingdom
Total Positive Impact 31%
Total Negative Impact 40%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/714865341386592256
Fixed my original post now
Any reading of their polls must be adjusted for that form.
People will not vote to make the economy (and thus themselves) worse off.
This EU event - as with the never going to happen voting change is leaving me like this...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccjfSyO9ncM
If we don't get that as part of Brexit, then clients and the industry is screwed
Then I realised he's playing against Liverpool this weekend.
The Brexiters may be cynical and wrong but they are showing some passion. At this rate they’ll win — Jackie Ashley"
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/29/remain-campaign-failing-brexiters-wrong-but-passion
If Cameron is looking for Labour voters to get out and vote remain, it might be a big ask.
The Eu in its current state, will make me vote leave, if they push me to vote.
Cameron might have that ability to get the Labour leave vote out , but not the remain.
They then need to show how much better off people would be with pounds in pockets as a result of quitting CAP, ending EU contributions and striking new trade deals.
I'm fully confident that I can get a new job straight away, but I realise not everyone is as intelligent and brilliant as me, it is those poor souls I worry about, and knock on effects, I can see the Manchester Maserati dealership going out of business.
"They would affect my employer, and ME."