politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s first policy resignation: IDS quits
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I can't quite believe how far Cameron and Osborne's stock has fallen for me in just a couple of months.
It's really rather weird and unsettling. And all self inflicted.0 -
It would be the best chance of holding the Conservatives together. After all how much incompetence from Osborne will Cameron put up with?RobD said:
I'm of the view that Osborne's time is up. Cameron should do a reshuffle and move him elsewhere. Perhaps a good time for it is right after the EU referendum.Jonathan said:Fallon, the next Tory leader?
What's great about this Tory catastrophe is that it is totally self inflicted. They were under no economic or political pressure at all. And they conspire to implode.
I suspect they spent all their effort trying to win the GE, but neglected to figure out why.
Sadly Cameron will never fire Osborne.
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There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
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"Bribery of important people" has worked well in South Africa, hasn't it?JosiasJessop said:
Perhaps. But I wonder how much communications - both physical (vehicles) and electronic have caused the problem.Mortimer said:Mass migration is the consequence of allowing the existence of failed states. Lack of leadership by, amongst others, Obama, Hollande and Cameron have all contributed. Pulling troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan was the first mistake.
All that said, Merkel's suggesting that migrants would be welcome in Germany was monumentally stupid. German people seem to have been very restrained as far as I can see!
In the case of refugees, vehicles allow them to move more quickly and easily through countries (via smugglers). They have a major push factor to leave, but not necessarily a big pull factor, which is why most remain in the camps as near as possible to their homes.
Then there are the economic migrants. Poor conditions at home push them, but there have been poor countries, and vehicles, for many decades. So why the problem now?
I put it down to electronic communications. They make the world appear smaller, and make it easy for poor people to see a world of almost unimanageable wealth, even if that world is often a myth. That's a massive pull factor.
So refugess are mainly pushed, and economic migrants mostly pulled.
But yes, we need to try to improve those countries to reduce the push and pull factors. But that requires cash, both directly in forms of aid and bribery of important people, and often boots on the ground.
Neither of which we will do.
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Mr. Jonathan, 'you'll' is wrong. I have mentioned quite a few times I'm not a Conservative.
Yes, I voted for them last time. But not at the European elections. Cameron's idiocy means I'll likely not vote for them in the locals either. My own MP is a sceptic, so I'll back her.
Miss Plato, quite. The behaviour over the EU is craven towards foreigners and contemptible towards the British. Even from a pro-EU perspective, Cameron's exaggerated both his deal and the downsides of leaving.0 -
You can take the boy out of Burnley but........Scott_P said:@theobertram: IDS is a victory over Blairites & vindication of JC4PM, apparently. A breathless Paul Mason has gone full Momentum. https://t.co/rjC7cBe71P
Wow!0 -
It is wierd. More a matter of, oh look here is a fire please do not stir it up as it will flare up and burn the house down. Really? Let us test it as we have perfect skills in all that we do...Plato_Says said:I can't quite believe how far Cameron and Osborne's stock has fallen for me in just a couple of months.
It's really rather weird and unsettling. And all self inflicted.
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Osborne has spent the last 10 months focusing entirely on succeeding Cameron and Cameron has given him free rein to do it. That is a terrible foundation from which to build effective, coherent government policy and strategy. Clearly, they also underestimated the strength of anti-EU feeling among both Tory MPs and members. The whole moderniser approach is now in serious danger.Jonathan said:Fallon, the next Tory leader?
What's great about this Tory catastrophe is that it is totally self inflicted. They were under no economic or political pressure at all. And they conspire to implode.
I suspect they spent all their effort trying to win the GE, but neglected to figure out why.
Corbyn is a double-edged gift for the Tories: he ensures Labour cannot win, but he has also bred mind-boggling and destructive complacency.
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I'd be surprised if Priti got IDS job.TCPoliticalBetting said:
It would be the best chance of holding the Conservatives together. After all how much incompetence from Osborne will Cameron put up with?RobD said:
I'm of the view that Osborne's time is up. Cameron should do a reshuffle and move him elsewhere. Perhaps a good time for it is right after the EU referendum.Jonathan said:Fallon, the next Tory leader?
What's great about this Tory catastrophe is that it is totally self inflicted. They were under no economic or political pressure at all. And they conspire to implode.
I suspect they spent all their effort trying to win the GE, but neglected to figure out why.
Sadly Cameron will never fire Osborne.0 -
Perhaps he will fall on his sword to spare Cameron the decision - I guess we'll see how much he cares about preserving the current direction of the government and how much he still thinks he has a chance of succeeding Cameron.TCPoliticalBetting said:
It would be the best chance of holding the Conservatives together. After all how much incompetence from Osborne will Cameron put up with?RobD said:
I'm of the view that Osborne's time is up. Cameron should do a reshuffle and move him elsewhere. Perhaps a good time for it is right after the EU referendum.Jonathan said:Fallon, the next Tory leader?
What's great about this Tory catastrophe is that it is totally self inflicted. They were under no economic or political pressure at all. And they conspire to implode.
I suspect they spent all their effort trying to win the GE, but neglected to figure out why.
Sadly Cameron will never fire Osborne.
And both could be gone in 3 months anyway, remarkable.
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No, he is a REMAINER, sadly.Jonathan said:Fallon, the next Tory leader?
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Just think how boring politics would be without GO.. You should have some pity for gods sake.. What would tim do without him there ?
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/with_replies0 -
Coalitions are indeed another category unto themselves but the original question was about former leaders (which Henderson was, even though he was also the current leader!), resigning from cabinet. Samuel wasn't a former leader in 1932, although I'd agree that otherwise the circumstances are very similar.ydoethur said:@david_herdson I think your logic on Henderson is flawed. He was leader of a small party in a national coalition that was badly divided in itself. He was not from the party leading it (Liberal) or dominating it (Unionist). If we are to take his resignation as the benchmark we have to include that of Samuel over the 1932 budget as well.
The last time I can think of that a party leader (1) agreed to serve under his successor and (2) resigned on a point of principle was Lord Hartington as part of the Home Rule crisis. The first is a rare event but the second is nearly unheard of since coalition governments led by amiable nonentities went out of fashion with the 1867 Reform Act.
If you know of a more recent example, I'd be interested to know what it is.0 -
@bbclaurak: Some senior ministers 'absolutely furious' about how IDS has behaved - suggesting it's all about EU and his resignation is 'outrageous'0
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You seem to be OK with Turkey abusing the Kurds at every opportunity but their great cheerleader on other matters. We should not be dealing with these rogues until they stop their genocide of the Kurds.JosiasJessop said:
It's too little, too late. Our European neighbours should be ashamed rather than patting themselves on their backs. Erdogan was right, and it's not often I say that:foxinsoxuk said:
Whether the new deal with Turkey will work on the Greece crossings will be crucial. It may just put back the emphasis on Italy or even Spain. Nonetheless it is the right sort of plan, and is a good example of acting in concert with our European neighbours.SouthamObserver said:
Strikingly - and honestly - Hastings offers no real solutions, except one that he acknowledges will not happen: the deployment of a 450,000-strong occupying force in the Middle East.MikeK said:
You know my views on Mass immigration - I'm against it - and I see no need to spell it out further. Max Hastings article in the mail has stated most, but not all, of my forebodings on the matter.JosiasJessop said:
Do you have any original thoughts, or can you only copy out tweets? I ask as I've asked you questions about your views, and you don't answer.MikeK said:The good new this morning is that more and more people are agreeing with me on Mass Immigration:
(snip)"At a time when Turkey is hosting three million (migrants), those who are unable to find space for a handful of refugees, who in the middle of Europe keep these innocents in shameful conditions, must first to look at themselves," Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.
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I understand this pov re migrants, but I think it is simplistic. The migrants are coming from failed or failing states - the people of Egypt are not exactly flocking are they?JosiasJessop said:
Perhaps. But I wonder how much communications - both physical (vehicles) and electronic have caused the problem.Mortimer said:Mass migration is the consequence of allowing the existence of failed states. Lack of leadership by, amongst others, Obama, Hollande and Cameron have all contributed. Pulling troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan was the first mistake.
All that said, Merkel's suggesting that migrants would be welcome in Germany was monumentally stupid. German people seem to have been very restrained as far as I can see!
In the case of refugees, vehicles allow them to move more quickly and easily through countries (via smugglers). They have a major push factor to leave, but not necessarily a big pull factor, which is why most remain in the camps as near as possible to their homes.
Then there are the economic migrants. Poor conditions at home push them, but there have been poor countries, and vehicles, for many decades. So why the problem now?
I put it down to electronic communications. They make the world appear smaller, and make it easy for poor people to see a world of almost unimanageable wealth, even if that world is often a myth. That's a massive pull factor.
So refugess are mainly pushed, and economic migrants mostly pulled.
But yes, we need to try to improve those countries to reduce the push and pull factors. But that requires cash, both directly in forms of aid and bribery of important people, and often boots on the ground.
Neither of which we will do.0 -
Osborne is going nowhere
@johnmcdonnellMP: Ian Duncan Smith has gone but Osborne was the architect of this disgraceful attack on disabled people and must also go.0 -
Probably right. Priti would then become a major rival to Osborne.Plato_Says said:I'd be surprised if Priti got IDS job.
TCPoliticalBetting said:
It would be the best chance of holding the Conservatives together. After all how much incompetence from Osborne will Cameron put up with?RobD said:
I'm of the view that Osborne's time is up. Cameron should do a reshuffle and move him elsewhere. Perhaps a good time for it is right after the EU referendum.Jonathan said:Fallon, the next Tory leader?
What's great about this Tory catastrophe is that it is totally self inflicted. They were under no economic or political pressure at all. And they conspire to implode.
I suspect they spent all their effort trying to win the GE, but neglected to figure out why.
Sadly Cameron will never fire Osborne.
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I know this is an old comment but I completely agree. IDS will have been mad about his UC scheme being repeatedly watered down by changing the taper rate and therefore defeating the point, which is to reduce the work disincentives introduced by tax credits.Richard_Tyndall said:I note DavidL's comments about IDS and the benefit changes on the previous thread but I think he has it fundamentally wrong. The impression I always got was that IDS had a vision of a complete transformation in the way welfare is dealt with that wasn't necessarily just about cuts. From his point of view it was about making benefits work properly. At the same time the Treasury has seen it as an opportunity continuously to impose cuts and save money.
That doesn't mean I don't think he has picked his time for political reasons but I do think that the underlying logic in terms of benefits is coherent and that he has long viewed Osborne and the Treasury as the enemy.
IDS will have been sat in Cabinet trying to extol the virtues of how Universal Credit would get people working and Ozzy will have been rolling his eyes and saying "Yes but how much is it going to save this year?"
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Can't get much more senior than the PM and the Chancellor....Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Some senior ministers 'absolutely furious' about how IDS has behaved - suggesting it's all about EU and his resignation is 'outrageous'
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I guess the PM has cleared his diary today for the reshuffle. If previous examples are to go by the PM will try and minimise the number of moves required, but DWP is a big job for someone not currently in the Cabinet or without experience in that department. It's a big brief with lots of politically sensitive policy.Plato_Says said:I'd be surprised if Priti got IDS job.
TCPoliticalBetting said:
It would be the best chance of holding the Conservatives together. After all how much incompetence from Osborne will Cameron put up with?RobD said:
I'm of the view that Osborne's time is up. Cameron should do a reshuffle and move him elsewhere. Perhaps a good time for it is right after the EU referendum.Jonathan said:Fallon, the next Tory leader?
What's great about this Tory catastrophe is that it is totally self inflicted. They were under no economic or political pressure at all. And they conspire to implode.
I suspect they spent all their effort trying to win the GE, but neglected to figure out why.
Sadly Cameron will never fire Osborne.
I wonder if there's more malaise than has come to light so far from Osborne's use of the EU referendum, and the resignation of IDS is just the first...0 -
Well, it's not Zimbabwe. Yet.Innocent_Abroad said:
"Bribery of important people" has worked well in South Africa, hasn't it?JosiasJessop said:
Perhaps. But I wonder how much communications - both physical (vehicles) and electronic have caused the problem.Mortimer said:Mass migration is the consequence of allowing the existence of failed states. Lack of leadership by, amongst others, Obama, Hollande and Cameron have all contributed. Pulling troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan was the first mistake.
All that said, Merkel's suggesting that migrants would be welcome in Germany was monumentally stupid. German people seem to have been very restrained as far as I can see!
In the case of refugees, vehicles allow them to move more quickly and easily through countries (via smugglers). They have a major push factor to leave, but not necessarily a big pull factor, which is why most remain in the camps as near as possible to their homes.
Then there are the economic migrants. Poor conditions at home push them, but there have been poor countries, and vehicles, for many decades. So why the problem now?
I put it down to electronic communications. They make the world appear smaller, and make it easy for poor people to see a world of almost unimanageable wealth, even if that world is often a myth. That's a massive pull factor.
So refugess are mainly pushed, and economic migrants mostly pulled.
But yes, we need to try to improve those countries to reduce the push and pull factors. But that requires cash, both directly in forms of aid and bribery of important people, and often boots on the ground.
Neither of which we will do.
I'm talking the clan/tribe/social leaders who want power, and will fight for it. Make it worth their while not to fight. It's distasteful, but might be necessary as part of a large program.
Do you have any better ideas?0 -
That Osborne has allowed McDonnell to have a viable line of attack against him must surely qualify the Budget as an Omnishambles.Scott_P said:Osborne is going nowhere
@johnmcdonnellMP: Ian Duncan Smith has gone but Osborne was the architect of this disgraceful attack on disabled people and must also go.
McDonnell. FFS.0 -
There's a saying about the preference for lucky generals over hood generals.Plato_Says said:I can't quite believe how far Cameron and Osborne's stock has fallen for me in just a couple of months.
It's really rather weird and unsettling. And all self inflicted.
I feel that Cameron and Osborne are lucky generals who have been struck by the notion that they are good generals.0 -
It's not a viable line of attack. That's the pointMarqueeMark said:That Osborne has allowed McDonnell to have a viable line of attack against him
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Get your head out your arse and talk to some people out there.Scott_P said:
It's not a viable line of attack. That's the pointMarqueeMark said:That Osborne has allowed McDonnell to have a viable line of attack against him
It's viable.0 -
Surprised more has not been made of ids essentially stating 'all in this together' is nonsense. He really didn't just undermine the budget but the entire justification of the leadership, he must have been very angry indeed.0
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Political union? Splitting the likes of Syria up into its respective clans?JosiasJessop said:
Well, it's not Zimbabwe. Yet.Innocent_Abroad said:
"Bribery of important people" has worked well in South Africa, hasn't it?JosiasJessop said:
Perhaps. But I wonder how much communications - both physical (vehicles) and electronic have caused the problem.Mortimer said:Mass migration is the consequence of allowing the existence of failed states. Lack of leadership by, amongst others, Obama, Hollande and Cameron have all contributed. Pulling troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan was the first mistake.
All that said, Merkel's suggesting that migrants would be welcome in Germany was monumentally stupid. German people seem to have been very restrained as far as I can see!
In the case of refugees, vehicles allow them to move more quickly and easily through countries (via smugglers). They have a major push factor to leave, but not necessarily a big pull factor, which is why most remain in the camps as near as possible to their homes.
Then there are the economic migrants. Poor conditions at home push them, but there have been poor countries, and vehicles, for many decades. So why the problem now?
I put it down to electronic communications. They make the world appear smaller, and make it easy for poor people to see a world of almost unimanageable wealth, even if that world is often a myth. That's a massive pull factor.
So refugess are mainly pushed, and economic migrants mostly pulled.
But yes, we need to try to improve those countries to reduce the push and pull factors. But that requires cash, both directly in forms of aid and bribery of important people, and often boots on the ground.
Neither of which we will do.
I'm talking the clan/tribe/social leaders who want power, and will fight for it. Make it worth their while not to fight. It's distasteful, but might be necessary as part of a large program.
Do you have any better ideas?
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Pair of duffers whose luck has ran out, PR alone cannot keep them afloat.Plato_Says said:I can't quite believe how far Cameron and Osborne's stock has fallen for me in just a couple of months.
It's really rather weird and unsettling. And all self inflicted.0 -
It wasn't so long ago that a Chancellor would be in hiding in the weeks before a Budget and then give interviews after delivering it.
Osborne gives interviews in the weeks before a Budget and then goes into hiding after delivering it.
Now whatever the rights and wrongs of these changes to disability benefits are Osborne has totally toxified the Tory brand.
He will be thought of as the man who took money from the disabled and gave it to bankers.
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You think Osborne will resign cos McDonnell says so?MarqueeMark said:It's viable.
"Get your head out your arse" I think is an appropriate phrase at this point...0 -
I would agree with that. The removal of a layer of administration was badly needed - and I've always hated LEAs - but arguably the biggest obstacle to good education in this country is the corruption, incompetence and complacency of the DfE. I would have kicked off any reform I was doing by abolishing them and transferring the tiny handful of necessary tasks they do to the DCLG. In principle I am again in favour of academies. But the academy chain system is not going to end well.foxinsoxuk said:
The Acadamy schools business is a similar mess waiting to happen. Painted as a freeing of of schools, it is actually a centralisation with the DoE taking over the roles of the LEA's without the capability to administer them.0 -
Not as such. The 'bastards' were members of the cabinet (Lilley, Portillo, Redward and Howard IIRC), whereas IDS was a core Maastricht rebel. The continuity is in loyalty to his beliefs.foxinsoxuk said:
Wasn't IDS one of the disloyal "bastards" that made Major's premiership so difficult? The leopard does not change his spots.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I did not view it about the EU . Just Osborne trying to save Project Osborne. As always.Plato_Says said:I'm pretty suspicious that Osborne thought this ruse would hurt Leave by tarnishing IDS.
He never expected IDS to press the red button. Pushing someone too far, especially a long suffering loyal one never ends well.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On top of all that, Osborne's people had started briefing that a u turn would be the fault of IDS....Plato_Says said:Agree with that. He's put his hand in his department's budget to find cuts, and Osborne has used them in the wrong way.
This has been niggling for years - I suspect that Osborne using the Budget for Remain was just the final straw. IDS has never struck me as a very political man.Richard_Tyndall said:I note DavidL's comments about IDS and the benefit changes on the previous thread but I think he has it fundamentally wrong. The impression I always got was that IDS had a vision of a complete transformation in the way welfare is dealt with that wasn't necessarily just about cuts. From his point of view it was about making benefits work properly. At the same time the Treasury has seen it as an opportunity continuously to impose cuts and save money.
That doesn't mean I don't think he has picked his time for political reasons but I do think that the underlying logic in terms of benefits is coherent and that he has long viewed Osborne and the Treasury as the enemy.
Re: "He never expected IDS to press the red button. Pushing someone too far, especially a long suffering loyal one never ends well. " Absolutely right.0 -
Spin.Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Some senior ministers 'absolutely furious' about how IDS has behaved - suggesting it's all about EU and his resignation is 'outrageous'
Meanwhile...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3499784/Peter-Oborne-Profligacy-lies-believe-Osborne-bad-chap.html
"This is bad for politics. It is bad for the Conservative Party. It is bad for the economy. And very bad for Britan"0 -
With one minister gone and everyone spitting fire, it feels viableish.Scott_P said:
It's not a viable line of attack. That's the pointMarqueeMark said:That Osborne has allowed McDonnell to have a viable line of attack against him
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You seem to be OK with Turkey abusing the Kurds at every opportunity but their great cheerleader on other matters. We should not be dealing with these rogues until they stop their genocide of the Kurds.malcolmg said:JosiasJessop said:
It's too little, too late. Our European neighbours should be ashamed rather than patting themselves on their backs. Erdogan was right, and it's not often I say that:foxinsoxuk said:
Whether the new deal with Turkey will work on the Greece crossings will be crucial. It may just put back the emphasis on Italy or even Spain. Nonetheless it is the right sort of plan, and is a good example of acting in concert with our European neighbours.SouthamObserver said:
Strikingly - and honestly - Hastings offers no real solutions, except one that he acknowledges will not happen: the deployment of a 450,000-strong occupying force in the Middle East.MikeK said:
You know my views on Mass immigration - I'm against it - and I see no need to spell it out further. Max Hastings article in the mail has stated most, but not all, of my forebodings on the matter.JosiasJessop said:
Do you have any original thoughts, or can you only copy out tweets? I ask as I've asked you questions about your views, and you don't answer.MikeK said:The good new this morning is that more and more people are agreeing with me on Mass Immigration:
(snip)"At a time when Turkey is hosting three million (migrants), those who are unable to find space for a handful of refugees, who in the middle of Europe keep these innocents in shameful conditions, must first to look at themselves," Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.
No, I'm not, as you would know if you actually read my posts. My tentative solution to the Kurdish situation is in direct conflict with Ankara's wishes.
But you cannot talk about Turkey and the Kurds without considering the PKK. As I've said before, a big tragedy in this crisis, and one that will possibly last longer than the current crisis, is the breakdown of the Solution peace process. It was a great missed opportunity.
That's quite a sick accusation. But it's no less I'd expect from a nasty sadsack such as yourself, Eliza.0 -
Montie on Sky, he's going for the Tzar look.
He's saying IDS resignation was because PIP cuts would be replaced by other cuts from the less well off again, and it was just too much. Osborne wouldn't get those savings from wealthier pensioners.
Fair to assume this is all mouthpiece stuff.0 -
Gaining 90 seats, what a shambles, eh?TCPoliticalBetting said:
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?0 -
Blair's response to Watson's resignation was pretty snippy. Re resignation statements, surely Cook's - a speech rather than a letter - out-hits IDS's?Plato_Says said:Tim Shipman
Just as there has not, in my 15 yrs of political hackery, been a resignation letter like IDS's, there hasn't been as snippy a PM's response0 -
Yes, so? Ids spun his resignation, the PM and allies will do likewise, it's which spin is most credible and which will resonate most with the public. Ids definitely wins on the latter, but it's more even on the former I think, though I think ids has enough in his favour that people won't buy it is only to do with Europe, while still having some questions over why now.TGOHF said:
Spin.Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Some senior ministers 'absolutely furious' about how IDS has behaved - suggesting it's all about EU and his resignation is 'outrageous'
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That's Montie's point. I agree with him. That's a very rare event.
I'd a great deal of respect for IDS.kle4 said:Surprised more has not been made of ids essentially stating 'all in this together' is nonsense. He really didn't just undermine the budget but the entire justification of the leadership, he must have been very angry indeed.
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Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?0
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No, I'm not, as you would know if you actually read my posts. My tentative solution to the Kurdish situation is in direct conflict with Ankara's wishes.JosiasJessop said:
You seem to be OK with Turkey abusing the Kurds at every opportunity but their great cheerleader on other matters. We should not be dealing with these rogues until they stop their genocide of the Kurds.malcolmg said:JosiasJessop said:
It's too little, too late. Our European neighbours should be ashamed rather than patting themselves on their backs. Erdogan was right, and it's not often I say that:foxinsoxuk said:
Whether the new deal with Turkey will work on the Greece crossings will be crucial. It may just put back the emphasis on Italy or even Spain. Nonetheless it is the right sort of plan, and is a good example of acting in concert with our European neighbours.SouthamObserver said:
Strikingly - and honestly - Hastings offers no real solutions, except one that he acknowledges will not happen: the deployment of a 450,000-strong occupying force in the Middle East.MikeK said:
You know my views on Mass immigration - I'm against it - and I see no need to spell it out further. Max Hastings article in the mail has stated most, but not all, of my forebodings on the matter.JosiasJessop said:
Do you have any original thoughts, or can you only copy out tweets? I ask as I've asked you questions about your views, and you don't answer.MikeK said:The good new this morning is that more and more people are agreeing with me on Mass Immigration:
(snip)"At a time when Turkey is hosting three million (migrants), those who are unable to find space for a handful of refugees, who in the middle of Europe keep these innocents in shameful conditions, must first to look at themselves," Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.
But you cannot talk about Turkey and the Kurds without considering the PKK. As I've said before, a big tragedy in this crisis, and one that will possibly last longer than the current crisis, is the breakdown of the Solution peace process. It was a great missed opportunity.
That's quite a sick accusation. But it's no less I'd expect from a nasty sadsack such as yourself, Eliza.
Boo Hoo JJ has his petted lip out. Lets hear more about them murdering the Kurds rather than your fawning over Erdogan. You cannot wring your hands about refugees and Europe whilst supporting them.0 -
I said a mini shambles. There was a very good disection on Conservative Home. Because of this Lynton Crosby was brought in with overall control.ThreeQuidder said:
Gaining 90 seats, what a shambles, eh?TCPoliticalBetting said:
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
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Almost all from their coalition partners. Should ensure that the Tories will never be in power again without an outright majority...ThreeQuidder said:
Gaining 90 seats, what a shambles, eh?TCPoliticalBetting said:
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
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It wasn't his resignation letter that did for Thatcher, it was *that* magnificent speech.PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the ait?
As we all know, IDS is a quiet man who looks an idiot when he tries to turn up the volume.0 -
Against the worst prime minister of all time ever responsible for destroying the universe's economy.ThreeQuidder said:
Gaining 90 seats, what a shambles, eh?TCPoliticalBetting said:
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?0 -
Everyone has a sell-by date.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?0 -
I think that was a reference to 2010. The Tories certainly didn't gain 90 seats in 2015 - net gain of 24.Innocent_Abroad said:
Almost all from their coalition partners. Should ensure that the Tories will never be in power again without an outright majority...ThreeQuidder said:
Gaining 90 seats, what a shambles, eh?TCPoliticalBetting said:
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
EDIT - in fact, surely it was over a hundred in 2010 - from 198 to 307?0 -
Cameron is already leaving, it may have done for Osborne - but I think he's already undone his reputation either way.PeterC said:
Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
0 -
Yes. Osborne should have gone to the Foreign Office straight after the General Election. Brown too outstayed his time at the Treasury.david_herdson said:
Everyone has a sell-by date.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
0 -
Indeed, the Tories seem to be running towards theirs.david_herdson said:
Everyone has a sell-by date.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?0 -
@PeterMannionMP: Do we think perhaps that #IDS is not going to come out well in those Universal Credit documents now to be released under FOI rules?0
-
Yes, if there was somebody who could pass for sane even on a cursory inspection in a dim light leading the opposition you would expect them to win the next election.Jonathan said:
Indeed, the Tories seem to be running towards theirs.david_herdson said:
Everyone has a sell-by date.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
Unfortunately - it really is unfortunate from all points of view - there isn't.0 -
So to recap, a significant proportion of the Tory party feels betrayed by the leadership on Europe and want Cameron gone, and now although they hoped that fight would be civil we now have a former cabinet minister on the leave side who has no reason to pull his punches and every reason to be explicit that removing Cameron and changing direction on more than Europe is the goal, because despite all the 'proud of work' stuff in his resignation, he outright stated the current austerity strategy was unfair and implied Cameron was a liar about people being all in this together, borrowing the implication from the opposition.
Coukd get very messy. I should think we'll be seeing some labour leads for a awhile now.
A good day to all.0 -
I wondered about that. Thank you for your correction.ydoethur said:
I think that was a reference to 2010. The Tories certainly didn't gain 90 seats in 2015 - net gain of 24.Innocent_Abroad said:
Almost all from their coalition partners. Should ensure that the Tories will never be in power again without an outright majority...ThreeQuidder said:
Gaining 90 seats, what a shambles, eh?TCPoliticalBetting said:
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
EDIT - in fact, surely it was over a hundred in 2010 - from 198 to 307?
0 -
From my POV, you Tories have lost the plot all of a sudden. What is behind this sudden change of heart.Plato_Says said:Cameron is already leaving, it may have done for Osborne - but I think he's already undone his reputation either way.
PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
I don't get it.0 -
It would be rather more accurate to say that Conservative electoral success has been despite Osborne rather than because of him.TCPoliticalBetting said:
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
Ten years ago Osborne thought that the Conservatives should target urban areas for big gains.
Little real research also explains why he was so surprised by the recession of 2008 and many of his subsequent economic boasts - 'March of the Makers', Trillion pound export target etc
0 -
Never underestimate the determination of a man with a cause.ydoethur said:
It wasn't his resignation letter that did for Thatcher, it was *that* magnificent speech.PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the ait?
As we all know, IDS is a quiet man who looks an idiot when he tries to turn up the volume.
I think and hope that his resignation speech will attack Osborne.0 -
Europe. It's always Europe. But I've been a little stunned at how much some Tories have turned, and I'm a leaver. They seem in real trouble,matte LDs are nowhere, UKIP stagnant, labour preposterous. Options are tough right now.Jonathan said:
From my POV, you Tories have lost the plot all of a sudden. What is behind this sudden change of heart.Plato_Says said:Cameron is already leaving, it may have done for Osborne - but I think he's already undone his reputation either way.
PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
I don't get it.
0 -
The obvious thing would be for Grayling to resign todaykle4 said:So to recap, a significant proportion of the Tory party feels betrayed by the leadership on Europe and want Cameron gone
The Tory party would be damaged beyond recognition, but he might get a win in the referendum0 -
'Project Smear'.Scott_P said:@PeterMannionMP: Do we think perhaps that #IDS is not going to come out well in those Universal Credit documents now to be released under FOI rules?
Commentators on R4 Today all seem to speak favourably of IDS and his work. I can't imagine that many people trotting out to offer any kind words on Osborne in the event of his departure. The Treasury cat might give him a miaow. And that's about it.0 -
I am not 'fawning' over Erdogan. I don't like him. And yes, I have posted about the attacks on the Kurds. In fact, I said just this week that the reprisal attacks after the latest bombing that killed 37 people are pointless as they generally attack the wrong people.malcolmg said:Boo Hoo JJ has his petted lip out. Lets hear more about them murdering the Kurds rather than your fawning over Erdogan. You cannot wring your hands about refugees and Europe whilst supporting them.
So let's here more from you about the terrorist attacks, eh?
My point is that the situation is far more complex than the one-dimensional picture people on here like to paint. We had a much simpler situation in NI, and that took decades to put a lid on.
As it happens, I think that might be a model for the Turkey-Kurd situation.0 -
This is proper politics now.
With old bonehead in charge, Labour are morphing into the SWP, the Tories are reverting to top-hatted toffs kicking the cripples, yet the LDs remain a twitching corpse.
There must be room for a middle party somewhere.0 -
There you go. But apparently that was a shambles.ydoethur said:
I think that was a reference to 2010. The Tories certainly didn't gain 90 seats in 2015 - net gain of 24.Innocent_Abroad said:
Almost all from their coalition partners. Should ensure that the Tories will never be in power again without an outright majority...ThreeQuidder said:
Gaining 90 seats, what a shambles, eh?TCPoliticalBetting said:
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
EDIT - in fact, surely it was over a hundred in 2010 - from 198 to 307?
The idea that the 2010 campaign was a failure by the Tories is one of the most poisonous out there. Winning 150 seats in one go, as some people seem to think should have happened, just isn't feasible in our system.0 -
That was the most devastating and historically significant resignation of modern times. The point about Howe was that he was respected by all sides of his party, and admired for his enduring loyalty. When he turned against Thatcher there was no way back for her. In no way is IDS a comparable figure.Jonathan said:
Yes, you are taking it too far.PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
0 -
It's a myth that sanity is a prerequisite for winning an election. When all sides look absolutely nuts (as they do in my eyes at the moment) one of them still has to win.ydoethur said:
Yes, if there was somebody who could pass for sane even on a cursory inspection in a dim light leading the opposition you would expect them to win the next election.
Unfortunately - it really is unfortunate from all points of view - there isn't.
0 -
Handily doubles as an 'attack the King by attacking his adviser' approach even if he doesn't go after Cameron and thus remains 'loyal'.Mortimer said:
Never underestimate the determination of a man with a cause.ydoethur said:
It wasn't his resignation letter that did for Thatcher, it was *that* magnificent speech.PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the ait?
As we all know, IDS is a quiet man who looks an idiot when he tries to turn up the volume.
I think and hope that his resignation speech will attack Osborne.
To play devils advocate, Cameron probably thinks ids smeared him by suggesting he is not committed to all in his together.watford30 said:
'Operation Smear'.Scott_P said:@PeterMannionMP: Do we think perhaps that #IDS is not going to come out well in those Universal Credit documents now to be released under FOI rules?
Commentators on R4 Today all seem to speak favourable of IDS and his work. I can't imagine that many people trotting out to offer any kind words on Osborne in the event of his departure.
0 -
Percrved freedom because Labour chose Corbyn. Wise heads here said that would be bad for the country.Jonathan said:
From my POV, you Tories have lost the plot all of a sudden. What is behind this sudden change of heart.Plato_Says said:Cameron is already leaving, it may have done for Osborne - but I think he's already undone his reputation either way.
PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
I don't get it.
0 -
I think IDS had the right ideas, and have supported him in that from the start. I'm not sure he's actually gone about implementing the reforms well, though.watford30 said:
Operation Smear.Scott_P said:@PeterMannionMP: Do we think perhaps that #IDS is not going to come out well in those Universal Credit documents now to be released under FOI rules?
Commentators on R4 Today all seem to speak favourable of IDS and his work. I can't imagine that many people trotting out to offer any kind words on Osborne in the event of his departure.
A good ideas man, a poor manager?We acknowledge that Universal Credit has stabilised and made progress since the previous Committee of Public Accounts first reported on the programme in 2013. However, there remains a long way to go. Implementation of Universal Credit so far has focussed mainly on the simplest cases and the Department for Work & Pensions has again delayed the programme. The completion date for the roll-out of its new digital service is six months later compared to when we looked at the programme only a year ago, and the Department now expects that Universal Credit will be fully operational in March 2021. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that there will be a further six-month delay beyond the Department’s latest planned end-date. We remain disappointed by the persistent lack of clarity and evasive responses by the Department to our inquiries, particularly about the extent and impact of delays. The Department’s response to the previous Committee’s recommendations in the February 2015 report Universal Credit: progress update do not convince us that it is committed to improving transparency about the programme’s progress.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmselect/cmpubacc/601/60103.htm#_idTextAnchor008
(The 2013 report is even more excoriating)0 -
Wondering what the implications of a Tory leadership election kicking of before the referendum might be.
I know it isn't going to happen, but if a malcontent could get the names it would add a fascinating angle to the vote.
It's a fun what if.
0 -
Rich pals falling out over who can come up with the nastiest prank against the poor.Jonathan said:
From my POV, you Tories have lost the plot all of a sudden. What is behind this sudden change of heart.Plato_Says said:Cameron is already leaving, it may have done for Osborne - but I think he's already undone his reputation either way.
PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
I don't get it.0 -
Although Howe too was a quiet man and indeed delivered a quiet speech in 1990. Devastatingly.ydoethur said:
It wasn't his resignation letter that did for Thatcher, it was *that* magnificent speech.PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the ait?
As we all know, IDS is a quiet man who looks an idiot when he tries to turn up the volume.0 -
Cameron started this whole blue on blue stuff and his deal was pants. His subsequent use of foreign politicos to talk Britain down annoyed many of us.
I expected a great deal better of him. He's turning his personal agenda into a MAD war.
Osborne is doing the same, they're losing the dressing room and either don't care or think they can do what they like.
Loyal soldiers such as @MarqueeMark and others don't lose faith over nothing.Jonathan said:
From my POV, you Tories have lost the plot all of a sudden. What is behind this sudden change of heart.Plato_Says said:Cameron is already leaving, it may have done for Osborne - but I think he's already undone his reputation either way.
PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
I don't get it.0 -
Anyone - even billionaires- are eligible for PiP.malcolmg said:
Rich pals falling out over who can come up with the nastiest prank against the poor.Jonathan said:
From my POV, you Tories have lost the plot all of a sudden. What is behind this sudden change of heart.Plato_Says said:Cameron is already leaving, it may have done for Osborne - but I think he's already undone his reputation either way.
PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
I don't get it.0 -
The latter's my tentative proposal, although not in clans. As the people cannot get along, they should split themselves up. But it needs to be their choice, and we need to support that process. It's made easier in Syria by the mass population movements that have sadly already occurred.Innocent_Abroad said:
Political union? Splitting the likes of Syria up into its respective clans?JosiasJessop said:
Well, it's not Zimbabwe. Yet.Innocent_Abroad said:
"Bribery of important people" has worked well in South Africa, hasn't it?JosiasJessop said:
Perhaps. But I wonder how much communications - both physical (vehicles) and electronic have caused the problem.Mortimer said:Mass migration is the consequence of allowing the existence of failed states. Lack of leadership by, amongst others, Obama, Hollande and Cameron have all contributed. Pulling troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan was the first mistake.
All that said, Merkel's suggesting that migrants would be welcome in Germany was monumentally stupid. German people seem to have been very restrained as far as I can see!
In the case of refugees, vehicles allow them to move more quickly and easily through countries (via smugglers). They have a major push factor to leave, but not necessarily a big pull factor, which is why most remain in the camps as near as possible to their homes.
Then there are the economic migrants. Poor conditions at home push them, but there have been poor countries, and vehicles, for many decades. So why the problem now?
I put it down to electronic communications. They make the world appear smaller, and make it easy for poor people to see a world of almost unimanageable wealth, even if that world is often a myth. That's a massive pull factor.
So refugess are mainly pushed, and economic migrants mostly pulled.
But yes, we need to try to improve those countries to reduce the push and pull factors. But that requires cash, both directly in forms of aid and bribery of important people, and often boots on the ground.
Neither of which we will do.
I'm talking the clan/tribe/social leaders who want power, and will fight for it. Make it worth their while not to fight. It's distasteful, but might be necessary as part of a large program.
Do you have any better ideas?
Iraqi Kurdistan is one possible model, although that model's braking fiscally at the moment with the problems they have with Baghdad, the conflict, and the fall in oil prices.0 -
Bad news
Have you ever watched sheep change direction?Jonathan said:
From my POV, you Tories have lost the plot all of a sudden. What is behind this sudden change of heart.Plato_Says said:Cameron is already leaving, it may have done for Osborne - but I think he's already undone his reputation either way.
PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
I don't get it.
0 -
It is feasible - Blair did it in 1997 and the SNP did even more, equivalently, last year - but it's very rare.ThreeQuidder said:
There you go. But apparently that was a shambles.ydoethur said:
I think that was a reference to 2010. The Tories certainly didn't gain 90 seats in 2015 - net gain of 24.Innocent_Abroad said:
Almost all from their coalition partners. Should ensure that the Tories will never be in power again without an outright majority...ThreeQuidder said:
Gaining 90 seats, what a shambles, eh?TCPoliticalBetting said:
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
EDIT - in fact, surely it was over a hundred in 2010 - from 198 to 307?
The idea that the 2010 campaign was a failure by the Tories is one of the most poisonous out there. Winning 150 seats in one go, as some people seem to think should have happened, just isn't feasible in our system.0 -
Simple for me , we should have nothing whatsoever to do with Turkey whilst they are persecuting the Kurds. Same should apply to the others we arse lick , like Saudi's. UK policy is based on who we can make a buck off , no morals or principles involved.JosiasJessop said:
I am not 'fawning' over Erdogan. I don't like him. And yes, I have posted about the attacks on the Kurds. In fact, I said just this week that the reprisal attacks after the latest bombing that killed 37 people are pointless as they generally attack the wrong people.malcolmg said:Boo Hoo JJ has his petted lip out. Lets hear more about them murdering the Kurds rather than your fawning over Erdogan. You cannot wring your hands about refugees and Europe whilst supporting them.
So let's here more from you about the terrorist attacks, eh?
My point is that the situation is far more complex than the one-dimensional picture people on here like to paint. We had a much simpler situation in NI, and that took decades to put a lid on.
As it happens, I think that might be a model for the Turkey-Kurd situation.0 -
They've had enough of Osborne. Using the Budget in a blatant effort to bolster Remain with bungs, long, long before a GE, and being a devious, meddling Brownian bell end has tipped many over the edge.Jonathan said:
From my POV, you Tories have lost the plot all of a sudden. What is behind this sudden change of heart.Plato_Says said:Cameron is already leaving, it may have done for Osborne - but I think he's already undone his reputation either way.
PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
I don't get it.0 -
Thanks, its an odd spectacle. Whatever happens the leadership will be able to count on Richard Ns supportPlato_Says said:Cameron started this whole blue on blue stuff and his deal was pants.
I expected a great deal better of him. He's turning his personal agenda into a MAD war.
Osborne is doing the same, they're losing the dressing room and either don't care or think they can do what they like.
Loyal soldiers such as @MarqueeMark and others don't lose faith over nothing.Jonathan said:
From my POV, you Tories have lost the plot all of a sudden. What is behind this sudden change of heart.Plato_Says said:Cameron is already leaving, it may have done for Osborne - but I think he's already undone his reputation either way.
PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
I don't get it.0 -
Should we have anything to do with the Kurds as they bomb Ankara?malcolmg said:
Simple for me , we should have nothing whatsoever to do with Turkey whilst they are persecuting the Kurds. Same should apply to the others we arse lick , like Saudi's. UK policy is based on who we can make a buck off , no morals or principles involved.JosiasJessop said:
I am not 'fawning' over Erdogan. I don't like him. And yes, I have posted about the attacks on the Kurds. In fact, I said just this week that the reprisal attacks after the latest bombing that killed 37 people are pointless as they generally attack the wrong people.malcolmg said:Boo Hoo JJ has his petted lip out. Lets hear more about them murdering the Kurds rather than your fawning over Erdogan. You cannot wring your hands about refugees and Europe whilst supporting them.
So let's here more from you about the terrorist attacks, eh?
My point is that the situation is far more complex than the one-dimensional picture people on here like to paint. We had a much simpler situation in NI, and that took decades to put a lid on.
As it happens, I think that might be a model for the Turkey-Kurd situation.
We need to use soft power to try to encourage these countries to change for the better, and that involves 'having something to do with them'. Failure to do so has obvious downsides.
Especially when they're struggling with 2-3 million migrants, whilst some of us don't want a few piddling thousand.0 -
Glad you're enjoying yourself.Jonathan said:Wondering what the implications of a Tory leadership election kicking of before the referendum might be.
I know it isn't going to happen, but if a malcontent could get the names it would add a fascinating angle to the vote.
It's a fun what if.0 -
2010 was the race to the bottom by two incompetent election campaigns which Labour won with Brown's trip to Rochdale.ThreeQuidder said:
There you go. But apparently that was a shambles.ydoethur said:
I think that was a reference to 2010. The Tories certainly didn't gain 90 seats in 2015 - net gain of 24.Innocent_Abroad said:
Almost all from their coalition partners. Should ensure that the Tories will never be in power again without an outright majority...ThreeQuidder said:
Gaining 90 seats, what a shambles, eh?TCPoliticalBetting said:
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
EDIT - in fact, surely it was over a hundred in 2010 - from 198 to 307?
The idea that the 2010 campaign was a failure by the Tories is one of the most poisonous out there. Winning 150 seats in one go, as some people seem to think should have happened, just isn't feasible in our system.
BTW Labour gained 145 seats in one go in 1997.
There were similarities between 1997 and 2010 - clapped out, sleazy government with its economic credibility in tatters. But Blair 'sealed the deal' in 1997 whereas Cameron didn't in 2010.
0 -
This is a wake up call to those who thought the Tories under Cameron had become human beings again.
Think Blade Runner0 -
Even if an attack from Howe was apparently analogous to being savaged by a moribund ovine, he at least had a pleasant voice to listen to and a fine command of the English language.*david_herdson said:
Although Howe too was a quiet man and indeed delivered a quiet speech in 1990. Devastatingly.ydoethur said:
It wasn't his resignation letter that did for Thatcher, it was *that* magnificent speech.PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the ait?
As we all know, IDS is a quiet man who looks an idiot when he tries to turn up the volume.
Iain Duncan Smith would be like John Prescott on weed.
*I have not let the fact that Howe was Welsh and, as everyone knows, we all have beautiful and melodious voices influence my judgement.0 -
How many Tory ministers of whatever rank have resigned during Cameron's premiership?0
-
Any attack by McDonnell that resonates with the voters, anything that gives this nasty bastard any smidgeon of respect for getting it right from the mainstream voter is a disaster for the Tories. A disaster wholly of Osborne's own construction.Scott_P said:
You think Osborne will resign cos McDonnell says so?MarqueeMark said:It's viable.
"Get your head out your arse" I think is an appropriate phrase at this point...0 -
Attlee in 1945 and Baldwin in 1924 and 1931 are the only others I can think of since 1918.david_herdson said:
It is feasible - Blair did it in 1997 and the SNP did even more, equivalently, last year - but it's very rare.ThreeQuidder said:
There you go. But apparently that was a shambles.ydoethur said:
I think that was a reference to 2010. The Tories certainly didn't gain 90 seats in 2015 - net gain of 24.Innocent_Abroad said:
Almost all from their coalition partners. Should ensure that the Tories will never be in power again without an outright majority...ThreeQuidder said:
Gaining 90 seats, what a shambles, eh?TCPoliticalBetting said:
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.Jonathan said:
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
EDIT - in fact, surely it was over a hundred in 2010 - from 198 to 307?
The idea that the 2010 campaign was a failure by the Tories is one of the most poisonous out there. Winning 150 seats in one go, as some people seem to think should have happened, just isn't feasible in our system.0 -
Howe was a 'dead sheep'.david_herdson said:
Although Howe too was a quiet man and indeed delivered a quiet speech in 1990. Devastatingly.ydoethur said:
It wasn't his resignation letter that did for Thatcher, it was *that* magnificent speech.PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the ait?
As we all know, IDS is a quiet man who looks an idiot when he tries to turn up the volume.
0 -
Whenever I feel a bit meh, I remember the mess Labour's in. An everyday tale of Marxist antisemitism...Casino_Royale said:
Glad you're enjoying yourself.Jonathan said:Wondering what the implications of a Tory leadership election kicking of before the referendum might be.
I know it isn't going to happen, but if a malcontent could get the names it would add a fascinating angle to the vote.
It's a fun what if.0 -
Makes a change.Casino_Royale said:
Glad you're enjoying yourself.Jonathan said:Wondering what the implications of a Tory leadership election kicking of before the referendum might be.
I know it isn't going to happen, but if a malcontent could get the names it would add a fascinating angle to the vote.
It's a fun what if.
Tory psyche is very different to Labour one.
Tory has a top layer of loyalty, but is bubbling cauldron underneath. With Labour it is the other way around. Always gobbing off at the surface, with a solid core underneath.
Explains why despite bigger divisions, Corbyn is safe.0 -
Yep, spot on. Wondering why I bothered joining now.watford30 said:
They've had enough of Osborne. Using the Budget in a blatant effort to bolster Remain with bungs, long, long before a GE, and being a devious, meddling Brownian bell end has tipped many over the edge.Jonathan said:
From my POV, you Tories have lost the plot all of a sudden. What is behind this sudden change of heart.Plato_Says said:Cameron is already leaving, it may have done for Osborne - but I think he's already undone his reputation either way.
PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
I don't get it.
DC and GO have lost half their party inside a month, and it's entirely of their own making.0 -
That's soooooooo gonna leakMoses_ said:Utterly disgraceful
"The publication of the long-awaited Chilcot inquiry is to be delayed until after the EU referendum, it was reported last night.
David Cameron’s decision to postpone the report into the Iraq War sparked accusations that he was deliberately deferring controversial announcements.
The delay comes despite the fact that ministers will be given the report – expected to condemn senior political figures – next month.
Government sources told The Daily Telegraph it was unlikely to be published until after the June 23 vote.
The PM had suggested his plans were to publish the report within two weeks of receiving it.
Reg Keys, whose son Lance Corporal Thomas Keys, 20, died in the war, said the delays were causing further pain. "
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3499819/Fury-Iraq-war-report-faces-delayed-EU-referendum-despite-ministers-given-month.html#ixzz43Kj5STIy0 -
Trump one of the two most talented politicians to run for President.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/15/halperin-trump-more-talented-at-running-for-president-than-obama-video/
Interesting that the chair of the Utah GOP has endorsed Trump, sign of the times.
Another reason a convention stitch up is not feasible.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/18/trump-and-cruz-delegates-in-tennessee-to-form-grassroots-alliance-pledge-support-for-anti-establishment-candidate/0 -
Out from 8pm last night. Wasn't expecting to wake up to this.0
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No one does disloyalty like the Conservative Europhobic right. It's very impressive in its own way.
Anyway, the coming years are going to be chaotic across politics. It will be fun and potentially very lucrative.0 -
There must be thousands of members who are simply hanging on purely for the chance to vote in any future leadership election.Sandpit said:
Yep, spot on. Wondering why I bothered joining now.watford30 said:
They've had enough of Osborne. Using the Budget in a blatant effort to bolster Remain with bungs, long, long before a GE, and being a devious, meddling Brownian bell end has tipped many over the edge.Jonathan said:
From my POV, you Tories have lost the plot all of a sudden. What is behind this sudden change of heart.Plato_Says said:Cameron is already leaving, it may have done for Osborne - but I think he's already undone his reputation either way.
PeterC said:Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
I don't get it.
DC and GO have lost half their party inside a month, and it's entirely of their own making.0 -
Nature's way if telling you to lie in.Casino_Royale said:Out from 8pm last night. Wasn't expecting to wake up to this.
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