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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s first policy resignation: IDS quits
There are two easy assumptions that need dismissing about IDS’s resignation yesterday. Firstly, this is not a power gambit on Duncan Smith’s part; and secondly, his going is not to do with Europe.
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No, that's what someone who was good at politics would have done.
As for going after Osborne rather than the PM, what's the difference? You go through Osborne to get to Cameron, surely?
Boris thinks he's about to be PM, so while it'd be fun to see him either refuse the position or try to actually do it, I cannot see it either.
So...Osborne definitely to Foreign Secretary if Remain win? If leave win, he and Cameron gone in any case. Why would she be doing better? IDS tacitly endorsed the current Labour entreaty that cuts have gone far enough.
Unless the Conservatives plan to throw Zac under the bus ...
"Similarly, if it was about Europe then he would have said so."
Why?
How would you see the final two in the leadership contest now, David?
That doesn't mean I don't think he has picked his time for political reasons but I do think that the underlying logic in terms of benefits is coherent and that he has long viewed Osborne and the Treasury as the enemy.
There was probably little trust between IDS and Osborne over the EU, but when Osborne delivered a bad and unpopular budget, and got a lot of flak, Osborne tried to pin the blame on IDS, but IDS shot first by resigning and blaming Osborne.
https://t.co/DrmB8LsNln https://t.co/Os3pbrKnQq
She would never have been able to attack the government over any type of cuts.
Well David, supporters of the Cameroons part of the party are saying that IDS's resignation is precisely because of the EU referendum. I also think it may have been one of the main reasons for going now.
Anyway early start tomorrow so goodnight.
Goodnight.
I disagree - like most Prime Ministers, Dave is likely to opt for a safe pair of hands and whose are safer than Greg's to take the step up being from Chief Secretary to the Treasury as suggested by Yours Truly here on 22 February and still available from those nice folk at Ladbrokes at value-packed odds of 16/1.
DYOR.
Plus IDS has fecking ruined my Sunday thread, the tosser.
If it was about Europe, why waste all the political capital he's spent on his resignation, talking about welfare reform?
However, he's an intelligent chap, and he'd know very well that some would see the EU as the reason (singular), even if it is untrue.
Although personally I think it's the EU only. It's all part of the bigger game.
I fear this will not go well for Leave, I really do.
https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/710908451023675393
More damning on Cam that he indulged it.
Not to say that there aren't sensible ex-Guards Officers out there in parliament but he was one of the more uni-dimensional.
Unless @DavidL was away with the fairies, he seemed to precis the PIP/DLA situation extremely well earlier today.
The 2016 Budget, however? Osborne just needed to do the bare minimum, not rock the boat until the Referendum was won by Remain. To the victors, the spoils and all that. But then, he goes and does the most politically inept pairing. Tax cuts for the best off - matched with benefit cuts to the disabled. Basic political stupidity. Now THAT deserves the title Omnishambles.....
By doing it this way, he damages Cameron and Osborne, one of whom is Remain's biggest asset. I'm not saying what the other is.
Boris resigning would throw Zac under the bus. Labour would have a field day. It's bad enough as it is.
Entirely predictable FUBAR from the Europhiles - hubris then downfall.
Pasty tax to patsy's tax - good on IDS for not putting up with it.
Q: How the Republicans can stop someone like Trump getting this close again
A: AV
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2016/03/voting-systems
It sticks the knife in deeper to make it a matter of conscience concerning what he is being asked to do in his department rather a disagreement over an area of policy that isn't in his remit. Plus, this way he is able to make it an attack on Osborne rather than Cameron, which is easier and probably safer.
But the Conservative Party is consumed by Europe at present. It seems to me not realistic to view an event like this as anything other than a play in the EU drama.
Edit: I see it's been done already...
No one for one second thought he was competent.
And of course now that stragety has been proven to have been a huge error.
We learn, we move on.
I have followed all his analysis and attempts at reform in minute detail or many years as it is the one area where I think there is truly scope for transformative change in the way we do things unlike anything that has been done for decades.
I honestly believe that he is one of the most dedicated and inspired politicians of the current Parliament, second only to Gove (apologies again for that being a Leave supporter, it is, I believe pure chance). The main problem is that neither is a very good politician - as IDS showed when Leader and Gove showed by alienating the teachers.
IDS was a better minister, in terms of actually understanding the issues of his brief and having a vision for change, than Osborne could ever be in a million years.
The age of austerity is over. Osborne, or his successor, will have to increase taxes or accept higher borrowing over the next few years.
The joys of publishing/editing a PB thread on a phone.
He was bad at it but it didn't matter because he was allowed his playpen to indulge in and for the Cons it was a free option: either he somehow, inadvertently, made a difference, despite it being the sub-optimal solution, or he expired worthless.
In the end, he expired worthless.
But it's possible to say one of the major things that has undermined reform has been the delays in rolling out UC: the longer it takes, the more chance there is for something to go wrong, or the opposition to the change to find a chink they can exploit. The delays also add many millions in direct cost, and much more in indirect costs.
How much can the delays in the roll-out of UC be laid at his door?
(*) Note present tense
It seems quite likely that the next Conservative leader will be from the right of the party and that they will preside over a higher tax, higher borrowing administration. I suppose odder things have happened in politics recently.
Holyrood List
SNP 42% (-3)
LAB 18% (=)
CON 18% (+3)
GR 10% (+1)
LD 6% (=)
Constituency
SNP 54% (+1); LAB 20% (-3); CON 16% (NC); LD 7% (+1); OTH 4% (+1)
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmpubacc/619/61903.htm
I do share your admiration of Gove though.
At least they are not the Lib Dems.
Of course, this row is really down to Cameron's complete inability to lead. But their again he did say he was the true heir to Blair and so he is proving, especially by tolerating a Chancellor becoming over mighty and overtly using his position to further his own ends rather than concentrating on his actual job.