What's great about this Tory catastrophe is that it is totally self inflicted. They were under no economic or political pressure at all. And they conspire to implode.
I suspect they spent all their effort trying to win the GE, but neglected to figure out why.
I'm of the view that Osborne's time is up. Cameron should do a reshuffle and move him elsewhere. Perhaps a good time for it is right after the EU referendum.
It would be the best chance of holding the Conservatives together. After all how much incompetence from Osborne will Cameron put up with?
Mass migration is the consequence of allowing the existence of failed states. Lack of leadership by, amongst others, Obama, Hollande and Cameron have all contributed. Pulling troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan was the first mistake.
All that said, Merkel's suggesting that migrants would be welcome in Germany was monumentally stupid. German people seem to have been very restrained as far as I can see!
Perhaps. But I wonder how much communications - both physical (vehicles) and electronic have caused the problem.
In the case of refugees, vehicles allow them to move more quickly and easily through countries (via smugglers). They have a major push factor to leave, but not necessarily a big pull factor, which is why most remain in the camps as near as possible to their homes.
Then there are the economic migrants. Poor conditions at home push them, but there have been poor countries, and vehicles, for many decades. So why the problem now?
I put it down to electronic communications. They make the world appear smaller, and make it easy for poor people to see a world of almost unimanageable wealth, even if that world is often a myth. That's a massive pull factor.
So refugess are mainly pushed, and economic migrants mostly pulled.
But yes, we need to try to improve those countries to reduce the push and pull factors. But that requires cash, both directly in forms of aid and bribery of important people, and often boots on the ground.
Neither of which we will do.
"Bribery of important people" has worked well in South Africa, hasn't it?
Mr. Jonathan, 'you'll' is wrong. I have mentioned quite a few times I'm not a Conservative.
Yes, I voted for them last time. But not at the European elections. Cameron's idiocy means I'll likely not vote for them in the locals either. My own MP is a sceptic, so I'll back her.
Miss Plato, quite. The behaviour over the EU is craven towards foreigners and contemptible towards the British. Even from a pro-EU perspective, Cameron's exaggerated both his deal and the downsides of leaving.
@theobertram: IDS is a victory over Blairites & vindication of JC4PM, apparently. A breathless Paul Mason has gone full Momentum. https://t.co/rjC7cBe71P
I can't quite believe how far Cameron and Osborne's stock has fallen for me in just a couple of months.
It's really rather weird and unsettling. And all self inflicted.
It is wierd. More a matter of, oh look here is a fire please do not stir it up as it will flare up and burn the house down. Really? Let us test it as we have perfect skills in all that we do...
What's great about this Tory catastrophe is that it is totally self inflicted. They were under no economic or political pressure at all. And they conspire to implode.
I suspect they spent all their effort trying to win the GE, but neglected to figure out why.
Osborne has spent the last 10 months focusing entirely on succeeding Cameron and Cameron has given him free rein to do it. That is a terrible foundation from which to build effective, coherent government policy and strategy. Clearly, they also underestimated the strength of anti-EU feeling among both Tory MPs and members. The whole moderniser approach is now in serious danger.
Corbyn is a double-edged gift for the Tories: he ensures Labour cannot win, but he has also bred mind-boggling and destructive complacency.
What's great about this Tory catastrophe is that it is totally self inflicted. They were under no economic or political pressure at all. And they conspire to implode.
I suspect they spent all their effort trying to win the GE, but neglected to figure out why.
I'm of the view that Osborne's time is up. Cameron should do a reshuffle and move him elsewhere. Perhaps a good time for it is right after the EU referendum.
It would be the best chance of holding the Conservatives together. After all how much incompetence from Osborne will Cameron put up with?
What's great about this Tory catastrophe is that it is totally self inflicted. They were under no economic or political pressure at all. And they conspire to implode.
I suspect they spent all their effort trying to win the GE, but neglected to figure out why.
I'm of the view that Osborne's time is up. Cameron should do a reshuffle and move him elsewhere. Perhaps a good time for it is right after the EU referendum.
It would be the best chance of holding the Conservatives together. After all how much incompetence from Osborne will Cameron put up with?
Sadly Cameron will never fire Osborne.
Perhaps he will fall on his sword to spare Cameron the decision - I guess we'll see how much he cares about preserving the current direction of the government and how much he still thinks he has a chance of succeeding Cameron.
And both could be gone in 3 months anyway, remarkable.
@david_herdson I think your logic on Henderson is flawed. He was leader of a small party in a national coalition that was badly divided in itself. He was not from the party leading it (Liberal) or dominating it (Unionist). If we are to take his resignation as the benchmark we have to include that of Samuel over the 1932 budget as well.
The last time I can think of that a party leader (1) agreed to serve under his successor and (2) resigned on a point of principle was Lord Hartington as part of the Home Rule crisis. The first is a rare event but the second is nearly unheard of since coalition governments led by amiable nonentities went out of fashion with the 1867 Reform Act.
If you know of a more recent example, I'd be interested to know what it is.
Coalitions are indeed another category unto themselves but the original question was about former leaders (which Henderson was, even though he was also the current leader!), resigning from cabinet. Samuel wasn't a former leader in 1932, although I'd agree that otherwise the circumstances are very similar.
The good new this morning is that more and more people are agreeing with me on Mass Immigration:
(snip)
Do you have any original thoughts, or can you only copy out tweets? I ask as I've asked you questions about your views, and you don't answer.
You know my views on Mass immigration - I'm against it - and I see no need to spell it out further. Max Hastings article in the mail has stated most, but not all, of my forebodings on the matter.
Strikingly - and honestly - Hastings offers no real solutions, except one that he acknowledges will not happen: the deployment of a 450,000-strong occupying force in the Middle East.
Whether the new deal with Turkey will work on the Greece crossings will be crucial. It may just put back the emphasis on Italy or even Spain. Nonetheless it is the right sort of plan, and is a good example of acting in concert with our European neighbours.
It's too little, too late. Our European neighbours should be ashamed rather than patting themselves on their backs. Erdogan was right, and it's not often I say that:
"At a time when Turkey is hosting three million (migrants), those who are unable to find space for a handful of refugees, who in the middle of Europe keep these innocents in shameful conditions, must first to look at themselves," Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.
You seem to be OK with Turkey abusing the Kurds at every opportunity but their great cheerleader on other matters. We should not be dealing with these rogues until they stop their genocide of the Kurds.
Mass migration is the consequence of allowing the existence of failed states. Lack of leadership by, amongst others, Obama, Hollande and Cameron have all contributed. Pulling troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan was the first mistake.
All that said, Merkel's suggesting that migrants would be welcome in Germany was monumentally stupid. German people seem to have been very restrained as far as I can see!
Perhaps. But I wonder how much communications - both physical (vehicles) and electronic have caused the problem.
In the case of refugees, vehicles allow them to move more quickly and easily through countries (via smugglers). They have a major push factor to leave, but not necessarily a big pull factor, which is why most remain in the camps as near as possible to their homes.
Then there are the economic migrants. Poor conditions at home push them, but there have been poor countries, and vehicles, for many decades. So why the problem now?
I put it down to electronic communications. They make the world appear smaller, and make it easy for poor people to see a world of almost unimanageable wealth, even if that world is often a myth. That's a massive pull factor.
So refugess are mainly pushed, and economic migrants mostly pulled.
But yes, we need to try to improve those countries to reduce the push and pull factors. But that requires cash, both directly in forms of aid and bribery of important people, and often boots on the ground.
Neither of which we will do.
I understand this pov re migrants, but I think it is simplistic. The migrants are coming from failed or failing states - the people of Egypt are not exactly flocking are they?
What's great about this Tory catastrophe is that it is totally self inflicted. They were under no economic or political pressure at all. And they conspire to implode.
I suspect they spent all their effort trying to win the GE, but neglected to figure out why.
I'm of the view that Osborne's time is up. Cameron should do a reshuffle and move him elsewhere. Perhaps a good time for it is right after the EU referendum.
It would be the best chance of holding the Conservatives together. After all how much incompetence from Osborne will Cameron put up with?
Sadly Cameron will never fire Osborne.
Probably right. Priti would then become a major rival to Osborne.
I note DavidL's comments about IDS and the benefit changes on the previous thread but I think he has it fundamentally wrong. The impression I always got was that IDS had a vision of a complete transformation in the way welfare is dealt with that wasn't necessarily just about cuts. From his point of view it was about making benefits work properly. At the same time the Treasury has seen it as an opportunity continuously to impose cuts and save money.
That doesn't mean I don't think he has picked his time for political reasons but I do think that the underlying logic in terms of benefits is coherent and that he has long viewed Osborne and the Treasury as the enemy.
I know this is an old comment but I completely agree. IDS will have been mad about his UC scheme being repeatedly watered down by changing the taper rate and therefore defeating the point, which is to reduce the work disincentives introduced by tax credits.
IDS will have been sat in Cabinet trying to extol the virtues of how Universal Credit would get people working and Ozzy will have been rolling his eyes and saying "Yes but how much is it going to save this year?"
What's great about this Tory catastrophe is that it is totally self inflicted. They were under no economic or political pressure at all. And they conspire to implode.
I suspect they spent all their effort trying to win the GE, but neglected to figure out why.
I'm of the view that Osborne's time is up. Cameron should do a reshuffle and move him elsewhere. Perhaps a good time for it is right after the EU referendum.
It would be the best chance of holding the Conservatives together. After all how much incompetence from Osborne will Cameron put up with?
Sadly Cameron will never fire Osborne.
I guess the PM has cleared his diary today for the reshuffle. If previous examples are to go by the PM will try and minimise the number of moves required, but DWP is a big job for someone not currently in the Cabinet or without experience in that department. It's a big brief with lots of politically sensitive policy.
I wonder if there's more malaise than has come to light so far from Osborne's use of the EU referendum, and the resignation of IDS is just the first...
Mass migration is the consequence of allowing the existence of failed states. Lack of leadership by, amongst others, Obama, Hollande and Cameron have all contributed. Pulling troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan was the first mistake.
All that said, Merkel's suggesting that migrants would be welcome in Germany was monumentally stupid. German people seem to have been very restrained as far as I can see!
Perhaps. But I wonder how much communications - both physical (vehicles) and electronic have caused the problem.
In the case of refugees, vehicles allow them to move more quickly and easily through countries (via smugglers). They have a major push factor to leave, but not necessarily a big pull factor, which is why most remain in the camps as near as possible to their homes.
Then there are the economic migrants. Poor conditions at home push them, but there have been poor countries, and vehicles, for many decades. So why the problem now?
I put it down to electronic communications. They make the world appear smaller, and make it easy for poor people to see a world of almost unimanageable wealth, even if that world is often a myth. That's a massive pull factor.
So refugess are mainly pushed, and economic migrants mostly pulled.
But yes, we need to try to improve those countries to reduce the push and pull factors. But that requires cash, both directly in forms of aid and bribery of important people, and often boots on the ground.
Neither of which we will do.
"Bribery of important people" has worked well in South Africa, hasn't it?
Well, it's not Zimbabwe. Yet.
I'm talking the clan/tribe/social leaders who want power, and will fight for it. Make it worth their while not to fight. It's distasteful, but might be necessary as part of a large program.
Surprised more has not been made of ids essentially stating 'all in this together' is nonsense. He really didn't just undermine the budget but the entire justification of the leadership, he must have been very angry indeed.
Mass migration is the consequence of allowing the existence of failed states. Lack of leadership by, amongst others, Obama, Hollande and Cameron have all contributed. Pulling troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan was the first mistake.
All that said, Merkel's suggesting that migrants would be welcome in Germany was monumentally stupid. German people seem to have been very restrained as far as I can see!
Perhaps. But I wonder how much communications - both physical (vehicles) and electronic have caused the problem.
In the case of refugees, vehicles allow them to move more quickly and easily through countries (via smugglers). They have a major push factor to leave, but not necessarily a big pull factor, which is why most remain in the camps as near as possible to their homes.
Then there are the economic migrants. Poor conditions at home push them, but there have been poor countries, and vehicles, for many decades. So why the problem now?
I put it down to electronic communications. They make the world appear smaller, and make it easy for poor people to see a world of almost unimanageable wealth, even if that world is often a myth. That's a massive pull factor.
So refugess are mainly pushed, and economic migrants mostly pulled.
But yes, we need to try to improve those countries to reduce the push and pull factors. But that requires cash, both directly in forms of aid and bribery of important people, and often boots on the ground.
Neither of which we will do.
"Bribery of important people" has worked well in South Africa, hasn't it?
Well, it's not Zimbabwe. Yet.
I'm talking the clan/tribe/social leaders who want power, and will fight for it. Make it worth their while not to fight. It's distasteful, but might be necessary as part of a large program.
Do you have any better ideas?
Political union? Splitting the likes of Syria up into its respective clans?
The Acadamy schools business is a similar mess waiting to happen. Painted as a freeing of of schools, it is actually a centralisation with the DoE taking over the roles of the LEA's without the capability to administer them.
I would agree with that. The removal of a layer of administration was badly needed - and I've always hated LEAs - but arguably the biggest obstacle to good education in this country is the corruption, incompetence and complacency of the DfE. I would have kicked off any reform I was doing by abolishing them and transferring the tiny handful of necessary tasks they do to the DCLG. In principle I am again in favour of academies. But the academy chain system is not going to end well.
Agree with that. He's put his hand in his department's budget to find cuts, and Osborne has used them in the wrong way.
This has been niggling for years - I suspect that Osborne using the Budget for Remain was just the final straw. IDS has never struck me as a very political man.
I note DavidL's comments about IDS and the benefit changes on the previous thread but I think he has it fundamentally wrong. The impression I always got was that IDS had a vision of a complete transformation in the way welfare is dealt with that wasn't necessarily just about cuts. From his point of view it was about making benefits work properly. At the same time the Treasury has seen it as an opportunity continuously to impose cuts and save money.
That doesn't mean I don't think he has picked his time for political reasons but I do think that the underlying logic in terms of benefits is coherent and that he has long viewed Osborne and the Treasury as the enemy.
On top of all that, Osborne's people had started briefing that a u turn would be the fault of IDS....
I did not view it about the EU . Just Osborne trying to save Project Osborne. As always.
Re: "He never expected IDS to press the red button. Pushing someone too far, especially a long suffering loyal one never ends well. " Absolutely right.
Wasn't IDS one of the disloyal "bastards" that made Major's premiership so difficult? The leopard does not change his spots.
Not as such. The 'bastards' were members of the cabinet (Lilley, Portillo, Redward and Howard IIRC), whereas IDS was a core Maastricht rebel. The continuity is in loyalty to his beliefs.
The good new this morning is that more and more people are agreeing with me on Mass Immigration:
(snip)
Do you have any original thoughts, or can you only copy out tweets? I ask as I've asked you questions about your views, and you don't answer.
You know my views on Mass immigration - I'm against it - and I see no need to spell it out further. Max Hastings article in the mail has stated most, but not all, of my forebodings on the matter.
Strikingly - and honestly - Hastings offers no real solutions, except one that he acknowledges will not happen: the deployment of a 450,000-strong occupying force in the Middle East.
Whether the new deal with Turkey will work on the Greece crossings will be crucial. It may just put back the emphasis on Italy or even Spain. Nonetheless it is the right sort of plan, and is a good example of acting in concert with our European neighbours.
It's too little, too late. Our European neighbours should be ashamed rather than patting themselves on their backs. Erdogan was right, and it's not often I say that:
"At a time when Turkey is hosting three million (migrants), those who are unable to find space for a handful of refugees, who in the middle of Europe keep these innocents in shameful conditions, must first to look at themselves," Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.
You seem to be OK with Turkey abusing the Kurds at every opportunity but their great cheerleader on other matters. We should not be dealing with these rogues until they stop their genocide of the Kurds.
No, I'm not, as you would know if you actually read my posts. My tentative solution to the Kurdish situation is in direct conflict with Ankara's wishes.
But you cannot talk about Turkey and the Kurds without considering the PKK. As I've said before, a big tragedy in this crisis, and one that will possibly last longer than the current crisis, is the breakdown of the Solution peace process. It was a great missed opportunity.
That's quite a sick accusation. But it's no less I'd expect from a nasty sadsack such as yourself, Eliza.
He's saying IDS resignation was because PIP cuts would be replaced by other cuts from the less well off again, and it was just too much. Osborne wouldn't get those savings from wealthier pensioners.
Tim Shipman Just as there has not, in my 15 yrs of political hackery, been a resignation letter like IDS's, there hasn't been as snippy a PM's response
Blair's response to Watson's resignation was pretty snippy. Re resignation statements, surely Cook's - a speech rather than a letter - out-hits IDS's?
@bbclaurak: Some senior ministers 'absolutely furious' about how IDS has behaved - suggesting it's all about EU and his resignation is 'outrageous'
Spin.
Yes, so? Ids spun his resignation, the PM and allies will do likewise, it's which spin is most credible and which will resonate most with the public. Ids definitely wins on the latter, but it's more even on the former I think, though I think ids has enough in his favour that people won't buy it is only to do with Europe, while still having some questions over why now.
Surprised more has not been made of ids essentially stating 'all in this together' is nonsense. He really didn't just undermine the budget but the entire justification of the leadership, he must have been very angry indeed.
The good new this morning is that more and more people are agreeing with me on Mass Immigration:
(snip)
Do you have any original thoughts, or can you only copy out tweets? I ask as I've asked you questions about your views, and you don't answer.
You know my views on Mass immigration - I'm against it - and I see no need to spell it out further. Max Hastings article in the mail has stated most, but not all, of my forebodings on the matter.
Strikingly - and honestly - Hastings offers no real solutions, except one that he acknowledges will not happen: the deployment of a 450,000-strong occupying force in the Middle East.
Whether the new deal with Turkey will work on the Greece crossings will be crucial. It may just put back the emphasis on Italy or even Spain. Nonetheless it is the right sort of plan, and is a good example of acting in concert with our European neighbours.
It's too little, too late. Our European neighbours should be ashamed rather than patting themselves on their backs. Erdogan was right, and it's not often I say that:
"At a time when Turkey is hosting three million (migrants), those who are unable to find space for a handful of refugees, who in the middle of Europe keep these innocents in shameful conditions, must first to look at themselves," Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.
You seem to be OK with Turkey abusing the Kurds at every opportunity but their great cheerleader on other matters. We should not be dealing with these rogues until they stop their genocide of the Kurds.
No, I'm not, as you would know if you actually read my posts. My tentative solution to the Kurdish situation is in direct conflict with Ankara's wishes.
But you cannot talk about Turkey and the Kurds without considering the PKK. As I've said before, a big tragedy in this crisis, and one that will possibly last longer than the current crisis, is the breakdown of the Solution peace process. It was a great missed opportunity.
That's quite a sick accusation. But it's no less I'd expect from a nasty sadsack such as yourself, Eliza.
Boo Hoo JJ has his petted lip out. Lets hear more about them murdering the Kurds rather than your fawning over Erdogan. You cannot wring your hands about refugees and Europe whilst supporting them.
Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.
Everyone has a sell-by date.
Indeed, the Tories seem to be running towards theirs.
Yes, if there was somebody who could pass for sane even on a cursory inspection in a dim light leading the opposition you would expect them to win the next election.
Unfortunately - it really is unfortunate from all points of view - there isn't.
So to recap, a significant proportion of the Tory party feels betrayed by the leadership on Europe and want Cameron gone, and now although they hoped that fight would be civil we now have a former cabinet minister on the leave side who has no reason to pull his punches and every reason to be explicit that removing Cameron and changing direction on more than Europe is the goal, because despite all the 'proud of work' stuff in his resignation, he outright stated the current austerity strategy was unfair and implied Cameron was a liar about people being all in this together, borrowing the implication from the opposition.
Coukd get very messy. I should think we'll be seeing some labour leads for a awhile now.
Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.
It would be rather more accurate to say that Conservative electoral success has been despite Osborne rather than because of him.
Ten years ago Osborne thought that the Conservatives should target urban areas for big gains.
Little real research also explains why he was so surprised by the recession of 2008 and many of his subsequent economic boasts - 'March of the Makers', Trillion pound export target etc
Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
From my POV, you Tories have lost the plot all of a sudden. What is behind this sudden change of heart.
I don't get it.
Europe. It's always Europe. But I've been a little stunned at how much some Tories have turned, and I'm a leaver. They seem in real trouble,matte LDs are nowhere, UKIP stagnant, labour preposterous. Options are tough right now.
@PeterMannionMP: Do we think perhaps that #IDS is not going to come out well in those Universal Credit documents now to be released under FOI rules?
'Project Smear'.
Commentators on R4 Today all seem to speak favourably of IDS and his work. I can't imagine that many people trotting out to offer any kind words on Osborne in the event of his departure. The Treasury cat might give him a miaow. And that's about it.
Boo Hoo JJ has his petted lip out. Lets hear more about them murdering the Kurds rather than your fawning over Erdogan. You cannot wring your hands about refugees and Europe whilst supporting them.
I am not 'fawning' over Erdogan. I don't like him. And yes, I have posted about the attacks on the Kurds. In fact, I said just this week that the reprisal attacks after the latest bombing that killed 37 people are pointless as they generally attack the wrong people.
So let's here more from you about the terrorist attacks, eh?
My point is that the situation is far more complex than the one-dimensional picture people on here like to paint. We had a much simpler situation in NI, and that took decades to put a lid on.
As it happens, I think that might be a model for the Turkey-Kurd situation.
With old bonehead in charge, Labour are morphing into the SWP, the Tories are reverting to top-hatted toffs kicking the cripples, yet the LDs remain a twitching corpse.
Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.
Gaining 90 seats, what a shambles, eh?
Almost all from their coalition partners. Should ensure that the Tories will never be in power again without an outright majority...
I think that was a reference to 2010. The Tories certainly didn't gain 90 seats in 2015 - net gain of 24.
EDIT - in fact, surely it was over a hundred in 2010 - from 198 to 307?
There you go. But apparently that was a shambles.
The idea that the 2010 campaign was a failure by the Tories is one of the most poisonous out there. Winning 150 seats in one go, as some people seem to think should have happened, just isn't feasible in our system.
Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
Yes, you are taking it too far.
That was the most devastating and historically significant resignation of modern times. The point about Howe was that he was respected by all sides of his party, and admired for his enduring loyalty. When he turned against Thatcher there was no way back for her. In no way is IDS a comparable figure.
Yes, if there was somebody who could pass for sane even on a cursory inspection in a dim light leading the opposition you would expect them to win the next election.
Unfortunately - it really is unfortunate from all points of view - there isn't.
It's a myth that sanity is a prerequisite for winning an election. When all sides look absolutely nuts (as they do in my eyes at the moment) one of them still has to win.
@PeterMannionMP: Do we think perhaps that #IDS is not going to come out well in those Universal Credit documents now to be released under FOI rules?
'Operation Smear'.
Commentators on R4 Today all seem to speak favourable of IDS and his work. I can't imagine that many people trotting out to offer any kind words on Osborne in the event of his departure.
To play devils advocate, Cameron probably thinks ids smeared him by suggesting he is not committed to all in his together.
@PeterMannionMP: Do we think perhaps that #IDS is not going to come out well in those Universal Credit documents now to be released under FOI rules?
Operation Smear.
Commentators on R4 Today all seem to speak favourable of IDS and his work. I can't imagine that many people trotting out to offer any kind words on Osborne in the event of his departure.
I think IDS had the right ideas, and have supported him in that from the start. I'm not sure he's actually gone about implementing the reforms well, though.
A good ideas man, a poor manager?
We acknowledge that Universal Credit has stabilised and made progress since the previous Committee of Public Accounts first reported on the programme in 2013. However, there remains a long way to go. Implementation of Universal Credit so far has focussed mainly on the simplest cases and the Department for Work & Pensions has again delayed the programme. The completion date for the roll-out of its new digital service is six months later compared to when we looked at the programme only a year ago, and the Department now expects that Universal Credit will be fully operational in March 2021. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that there will be a further six-month delay beyond the Department’s latest planned end-date. We remain disappointed by the persistent lack of clarity and evasive responses by the Department to our inquiries, particularly about the extent and impact of delays. The Department’s response to the previous Committee’s recommendations in the February 2015 report Universal Credit: progress update do not convince us that it is committed to improving transparency about the programme’s progress.
Mass migration is the consequence of allowing the existence of failed states. Lack of leadership by, amongst others, Obama, Hollande and Cameron have all contributed. Pulling troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan was the first mistake.
All that said, Merkel's suggesting that migrants would be welcome in Germany was monumentally stupid. German people seem to have been very restrained as far as I can see!
Perhaps. But I wonder how much communications - both physical (vehicles) and electronic have caused the problem.
In the case of refugees, vehicles allow them to move more quickly and easily through countries (via smugglers). They have a major push factor to leave, but not necessarily a big pull factor, which is why most remain in the camps as near as possible to their homes.
Then there are the economic migrants. Poor conditions at home push them, but there have been poor countries, and vehicles, for many decades. So why the problem now?
I put it down to electronic communications. They make the world appear smaller, and make it easy for poor people to see a world of almost unimanageable wealth, even if that world is often a myth. That's a massive pull factor.
So refugess are mainly pushed, and economic migrants mostly pulled.
But yes, we need to try to improve those countries to reduce the push and pull factors. But that requires cash, both directly in forms of aid and bribery of important people, and often boots on the ground.
Neither of which we will do.
"Bribery of important people" has worked well in South Africa, hasn't it?
Well, it's not Zimbabwe. Yet.
I'm talking the clan/tribe/social leaders who want power, and will fight for it. Make it worth their while not to fight. It's distasteful, but might be necessary as part of a large program.
Do you have any better ideas?
Political union? Splitting the likes of Syria up into its respective clans?
The latter's my tentative proposal, although not in clans. As the people cannot get along, they should split themselves up. But it needs to be their choice, and we need to support that process. It's made easier in Syria by the mass population movements that have sadly already occurred.
Iraqi Kurdistan is one possible model, although that model's braking fiscally at the moment with the problems they have with Baghdad, the conflict, and the fall in oil prices.
Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.
Gaining 90 seats, what a shambles, eh?
Almost all from their coalition partners. Should ensure that the Tories will never be in power again without an outright majority...
I think that was a reference to 2010. The Tories certainly didn't gain 90 seats in 2015 - net gain of 24.
EDIT - in fact, surely it was over a hundred in 2010 - from 198 to 307?
There you go. But apparently that was a shambles.
The idea that the 2010 campaign was a failure by the Tories is one of the most poisonous out there. Winning 150 seats in one go, as some people seem to think should have happened, just isn't feasible in our system.
It is feasible - Blair did it in 1997 and the SNP did even more, equivalently, last year - but it's very rare.
Boo Hoo JJ has his petted lip out. Lets hear more about them murdering the Kurds rather than your fawning over Erdogan. You cannot wring your hands about refugees and Europe whilst supporting them.
I am not 'fawning' over Erdogan. I don't like him. And yes, I have posted about the attacks on the Kurds. In fact, I said just this week that the reprisal attacks after the latest bombing that killed 37 people are pointless as they generally attack the wrong people.
So let's here more from you about the terrorist attacks, eh?
My point is that the situation is far more complex than the one-dimensional picture people on here like to paint. We had a much simpler situation in NI, and that took decades to put a lid on.
As it happens, I think that might be a model for the Turkey-Kurd situation.
Simple for me , we should have nothing whatsoever to do with Turkey whilst they are persecuting the Kurds. Same should apply to the others we arse lick , like Saudi's. UK policy is based on who we can make a buck off , no morals or principles involved.
Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
From my POV, you Tories have lost the plot all of a sudden. What is behind this sudden change of heart.
I don't get it.
They've had enough of Osborne. Using the Budget in a blatant effort to bolster Remain with bungs, long, long before a GE, and being a devious, meddling Brownian bell end has tipped many over the edge.
Boo Hoo JJ has his petted lip out. Lets hear more about them murdering the Kurds rather than your fawning over Erdogan. You cannot wring your hands about refugees and Europe whilst supporting them.
I am not 'fawning' over Erdogan. I don't like him. And yes, I have posted about the attacks on the Kurds. In fact, I said just this week that the reprisal attacks after the latest bombing that killed 37 people are pointless as they generally attack the wrong people.
So let's here more from you about the terrorist attacks, eh?
My point is that the situation is far more complex than the one-dimensional picture people on here like to paint. We had a much simpler situation in NI, and that took decades to put a lid on.
As it happens, I think that might be a model for the Turkey-Kurd situation.
Simple for me , we should have nothing whatsoever to do with Turkey whilst they are persecuting the Kurds. Same should apply to the others we arse lick , like Saudi's. UK policy is based on who we can make a buck off , no morals or principles involved.
Should we have anything to do with the Kurds as they bomb Ankara?
We need to use soft power to try to encourage these countries to change for the better, and that involves 'having something to do with them'. Failure to do so has obvious downsides.
Especially when they're struggling with 2-3 million migrants, whilst some of us don't want a few piddling thousand.
Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.
Gaining 90 seats, what a shambles, eh?
Almost all from their coalition partners. Should ensure that the Tories will never be in power again without an outright majority...
I think that was a reference to 2010. The Tories certainly didn't gain 90 seats in 2015 - net gain of 24.
EDIT - in fact, surely it was over a hundred in 2010 - from 198 to 307?
There you go. But apparently that was a shambles.
The idea that the 2010 campaign was a failure by the Tories is one of the most poisonous out there. Winning 150 seats in one go, as some people seem to think should have happened, just isn't feasible in our system.
2010 was the race to the bottom by two incompetent election campaigns which Labour won with Brown's trip to Rochdale.
BTW Labour gained 145 seats in one go in 1997.
There were similarities between 1997 and 2010 - clapped out, sleazy government with its economic credibility in tatters. But Blair 'sealed the deal' in 1997 whereas Cameron didn't in 2010.
Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the ait?
It wasn't his resignation letter that did for Thatcher, it was *that* magnificent speech.
As we all know, IDS is a quiet man who looks an idiot when he tries to turn up the volume.
Although Howe too was a quiet man and indeed delivered a quiet speech in 1990. Devastatingly.
Even if an attack from Howe was apparently analogous to being savaged by a moribund ovine, he at least had a pleasant voice to listen to and a fine command of the English language.*
Iain Duncan Smith would be like John Prescott on weed.
*I have not let the fact that Howe was Welsh and, as everyone knows, we all have beautiful and melodious voices influence my judgement.
You think Osborne will resign cos McDonnell says so?
"Get your head out your arse" I think is an appropriate phrase at this point...
Any attack by McDonnell that resonates with the voters, anything that gives this nasty bastard any smidgeon of respect for getting it right from the mainstream voter is a disaster for the Tories. A disaster wholly of Osborne's own construction.
Mr. Jonathan, is it a Tory implosion, or an Osborne one? If the latter, then his removal solves the problem.
Or, to rephrase, is this a Peloponnesian War, or a Jugurthine War?
Osborne = Tory. He's your chancellor and the brains that got you out of opposition. You'll be properly screwed with him outside the tent pissing in.
There were several key people and the actual GE2010 campaign that Osborne headed up was a mini omnishambles. One built on little real research.
Gaining 90 seats, what a shambles, eh?
Almost all from their coalition partners. Should ensure that the Tories will never be in power again without an outright majority...
I think that was a reference to 2010. The Tories certainly didn't gain 90 seats in 2015 - net gain of 24.
EDIT - in fact, surely it was over a hundred in 2010 - from 198 to 307?
There you go. But apparently that was a shambles.
The idea that the 2010 campaign was a failure by the Tories is one of the most poisonous out there. Winning 150 seats in one go, as some people seem to think should have happened, just isn't feasible in our system.
It is feasible - Blair did it in 1997 and the SNP did even more, equivalently, last year - but it's very rare.
Attlee in 1945 and Baldwin in 1924 and 1931 are the only others I can think of since 1918.
Wondering what the implications of a Tory leadership election kicking of before the referendum might be.
I know it isn't going to happen, but if a malcontent could get the names it would add a fascinating angle to the vote.
It's a fun what if.
Glad you're enjoying yourself.
Makes a change.
Tory psyche is very different to Labour one.
Tory has a top layer of loyalty, but is bubbling cauldron underneath. With Labour it is the other way around. Always gobbing off at the surface, with a solid core underneath.
Explains why despite bigger divisions, Corbyn is safe.
Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
From my POV, you Tories have lost the plot all of a sudden. What is behind this sudden change of heart.
I don't get it.
They've had enough of Osborne. Using the Budget in a blatant effort to bolster Remain with bungs, long, long before a GE, and being a devious, meddling Brownian bell end has tipped many over the edge.
Yep, spot on. Wondering why I bothered joining now.
DC and GO have lost half their party inside a month, and it's entirely of their own making.
"The publication of the long-awaited Chilcot inquiry is to be delayed until after the EU referendum, it was reported last night. David Cameron’s decision to postpone the report into the Iraq War sparked accusations that he was deliberately deferring controversial announcements. The delay comes despite the fact that ministers will be given the report – expected to condemn senior political figures – next month. Government sources told The Daily Telegraph it was unlikely to be published until after the June 23 vote. The PM had suggested his plans were to publish the report within two weeks of receiving it. Reg Keys, whose son Lance Corporal Thomas Keys, 20, died in the war, said the delays were causing further pain. "
Am I taking things too far or is there an echo of Geoffrey Howe in the air?
From my POV, you Tories have lost the plot all of a sudden. What is behind this sudden change of heart.
I don't get it.
They've had enough of Osborne. Using the Budget in a blatant effort to bolster Remain with bungs, long, long before a GE, and being a devious, meddling Brownian bell end has tipped many over the edge.
Yep, spot on. Wondering why I bothered joining now.
DC and GO have lost half their party inside a month, and it's entirely of their own making.
There must be thousands of members who are simply hanging on purely for the chance to vote in any future leadership election.
Comments
It's really rather weird and unsettling. And all self inflicted.
Sadly Cameron will never fire Osborne.
Yes, I voted for them last time. But not at the European elections. Cameron's idiocy means I'll likely not vote for them in the locals either. My own MP is a sceptic, so I'll back her.
Miss Plato, quite. The behaviour over the EU is craven towards foreigners and contemptible towards the British. Even from a pro-EU perspective, Cameron's exaggerated both his deal and the downsides of leaving.
Wow!
Corbyn is a double-edged gift for the Tories: he ensures Labour cannot win, but he has also bred mind-boggling and destructive complacency.
And both could be gone in 3 months anyway, remarkable.
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/with_replies
@johnmcdonnellMP: Ian Duncan Smith has gone but Osborne was the architect of this disgraceful attack on disabled people and must also go.
IDS will have been sat in Cabinet trying to extol the virtues of how Universal Credit would get people working and Ozzy will have been rolling his eyes and saying "Yes but how much is it going to save this year?"
I wonder if there's more malaise than has come to light so far from Osborne's use of the EU referendum, and the resignation of IDS is just the first...
I'm talking the clan/tribe/social leaders who want power, and will fight for it. Make it worth their while not to fight. It's distasteful, but might be necessary as part of a large program.
Do you have any better ideas?
McDonnell. FFS.
I feel that Cameron and Osborne are lucky generals who have been struck by the notion that they are good generals.
It's viable.
Osborne gives interviews in the weeks before a Budget and then goes into hiding after delivering it.
Now whatever the rights and wrongs of these changes to disability benefits are Osborne has totally toxified the Tory brand.
He will be thought of as the man who took money from the disabled and gave it to bankers.
"Get your head out your arse" I think is an appropriate phrase at this point...
Meanwhile...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3499784/Peter-Oborne-Profligacy-lies-believe-Osborne-bad-chap.html
"This is bad for politics. It is bad for the Conservative Party. It is bad for the economy. And very bad for Britan"
No, I'm not, as you would know if you actually read my posts. My tentative solution to the Kurdish situation is in direct conflict with Ankara's wishes.
But you cannot talk about Turkey and the Kurds without considering the PKK. As I've said before, a big tragedy in this crisis, and one that will possibly last longer than the current crisis, is the breakdown of the Solution peace process. It was a great missed opportunity.
That's quite a sick accusation. But it's no less I'd expect from a nasty sadsack such as yourself, Eliza.
He's saying IDS resignation was because PIP cuts would be replaced by other cuts from the less well off again, and it was just too much. Osborne wouldn't get those savings from wealthier pensioners.
Fair to assume this is all mouthpiece stuff.
I'd a great deal of respect for IDS.
But you cannot talk about Turkey and the Kurds without considering the PKK. As I've said before, a big tragedy in this crisis, and one that will possibly last longer than the current crisis, is the breakdown of the Solution peace process. It was a great missed opportunity.
That's quite a sick accusation. But it's no less I'd expect from a nasty sadsack such as yourself, Eliza.
Boo Hoo JJ has his petted lip out. Lets hear more about them murdering the Kurds rather than your fawning over Erdogan. You cannot wring your hands about refugees and Europe whilst supporting them.
As we all know, IDS is a quiet man who looks an idiot when he tries to turn up the volume.
EDIT - in fact, surely it was over a hundred in 2010 - from 198 to 307?
Unfortunately - it really is unfortunate from all points of view - there isn't.
Coukd get very messy. I should think we'll be seeing some labour leads for a awhile now.
A good day to all.
I don't get it.
Ten years ago Osborne thought that the Conservatives should target urban areas for big gains.
Little real research also explains why he was so surprised by the recession of 2008 and many of his subsequent economic boasts - 'March of the Makers', Trillion pound export target etc
I think and hope that his resignation speech will attack Osborne.
The Tory party would be damaged beyond recognition, but he might get a win in the referendum
Commentators on R4 Today all seem to speak favourably of IDS and his work. I can't imagine that many people trotting out to offer any kind words on Osborne in the event of his departure. The Treasury cat might give him a miaow. And that's about it.
So let's here more from you about the terrorist attacks, eh?
My point is that the situation is far more complex than the one-dimensional picture people on here like to paint. We had a much simpler situation in NI, and that took decades to put a lid on.
As it happens, I think that might be a model for the Turkey-Kurd situation.
With old bonehead in charge, Labour are morphing into the SWP, the Tories are reverting to top-hatted toffs kicking the cripples, yet the LDs remain a twitching corpse.
There must be room for a middle party somewhere.
The idea that the 2010 campaign was a failure by the Tories is one of the most poisonous out there. Winning 150 seats in one go, as some people seem to think should have happened, just isn't feasible in our system.
A good ideas man, a poor manager? http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmselect/cmpubacc/601/60103.htm#_idTextAnchor008
(The 2013 report is even more excoriating)
I know it isn't going to happen, but if a malcontent could get the names it would add a fascinating angle to the vote.
It's a fun what if.
I expected a great deal better of him. He's turning his personal agenda into a MAD war.
Osborne is doing the same, they're losing the dressing room and either don't care or think they can do what they like.
Loyal soldiers such as @MarqueeMark and others don't lose faith over nothing.
Iraqi Kurdistan is one possible model, although that model's braking fiscally at the moment with the problems they have with Baghdad, the conflict, and the fall in oil prices.
We need to use soft power to try to encourage these countries to change for the better, and that involves 'having something to do with them'. Failure to do so has obvious downsides.
Especially when they're struggling with 2-3 million migrants, whilst some of us don't want a few piddling thousand.
BTW Labour gained 145 seats in one go in 1997.
There were similarities between 1997 and 2010 - clapped out, sleazy government with its economic credibility in tatters. But Blair 'sealed the deal' in 1997 whereas Cameron didn't in 2010.
Think Blade Runner
Iain Duncan Smith would be like John Prescott on weed.
*I have not let the fact that Howe was Welsh and, as everyone knows, we all have beautiful and melodious voices influence my judgement.
Tory psyche is very different to Labour one.
Tory has a top layer of loyalty, but is bubbling cauldron underneath. With Labour it is the other way around. Always gobbing off at the surface, with a solid core underneath.
Explains why despite bigger divisions, Corbyn is safe.
DC and GO have lost half their party inside a month, and it's entirely of their own making.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/15/halperin-trump-more-talented-at-running-for-president-than-obama-video/
Interesting that the chair of the Utah GOP has endorsed Trump, sign of the times.
Another reason a convention stitch up is not feasible.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/18/trump-and-cruz-delegates-in-tennessee-to-form-grassroots-alliance-pledge-support-for-anti-establishment-candidate/
Anyway, the coming years are going to be chaotic across politics. It will be fun and potentially very lucrative.