politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB in lead for first time since last May as the Tories pay

PBers will remember last month that I predicted a large fall in productivity in 2015q4.

Nice to see the OBR also highlighting it:

"The most significant forecast change we have made since November has been to revise
down potential productivity growth. This is the amount of output the economy can produce
sustainably per hour worked and is a key driver of its potential size. The data available in
November showed a pick-up in productivity growth in mid-2015, consistent with our
assumption that the receding financial crisis would exert less of a drag and that trend
productivity growth would return to its pre-crisis average rate by the end of the forecast. But
more recent data suggest that this was another false dawn."

http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.org.uk/Executive-summary-1.pdf

But that doesn't stop the OBR from assuming that productivity will start to grow steadily from now to the far future.

A number of their other assumptions on government borrowing and wage growth also look hopeful.

And the OBR has a history of similarly hopeful predictions of productivity, government borrowing and wage growth which don't happen in reality.

watford30 said:

JackW said:

watford30 said:

2020 might not be a nailed on win then for the Tories? What a surprise. Complacency will do for them, and Osborne's continued silly games. He's Brown to the core.

How many points will Project Fear add to the Labour score when Cameron and Co really ramp up the ludicrous horror stories, and the proper fighting starts?

Any PBer who seriously thinks the British electorate will put Jezza into Downing Street over any evenly mildly incompetent Conservative is having a brain fart of such epic proportions that it makes the late lamented @Cromwell assertion that Rubio would be the next president appear as a genius moment of political punditry.

Like I said, complacency. And arrogance.

The "complacency" lies with those who thought electing Jezza was the answer and the "arrogance" with those who haven't learnt the lessons of May 2015 otherwise known as :

EMICIPM ....

Indigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It turns out that Conservatives are just as fervent believers in the magic money tree as Labour supporters - just different branches.

There are some Conservatives that feel Camborne are in the wrong party, they might well think that, I couldn't possibly comment.... but you would struggle to get a cigarette paper between Camborne and Clegg on most policies, apparently now including the EU.

Oh it's the populist right that believe most fervently in the magic money tree. They wouldn't agree to tax credit cuts, they wouldn't agree to pensions tax rises, they're now plotting against the Chancellor about changes to disability benefits. You can argue about each of these but there comes a point where you have to accept that the money needs to come from somewhere. The Conservative right, in its Europhobic mania, is regressing to infantility.

Bollocks.

The tax credit cuts was killed in the lords by Labour and Libdem peers. Those speaking against it in the commons were people like Heidi Allen hardly a populist rightwinger.

The Tory right want Osborne to actual cut spending, not this "reducing the level of increase" nonsense we have had over the past 5-6 years. The government should DO LESS, not try and do more on the cheap.

http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2015/10/20-conservatives-revolt-over-tax-credits-five-of-them-are-2015-intake-members.html

Messrs Davis, Hollobone, Jenkins and Rees-Mogg reporting for duty SIR.

Oh no, so an effective majority of only 25ish then. Never mind that it actually died in the Lords.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/feb/07/tax-credit-cuts-escaped-osbornes-u-turn-hit-800000

Osborne was forced into the humiliating climbdown over tax credits in his autumn statement in November following a defeat for the proposed measures in the House of Lords. The defeat prompted a clash between the government and the upper chamber over whether the Lords could block a measure with such large implications for the government’s finances

The measure could have been reintroduced in the Commons. It wasn't. Why? Because of the opposition of the likes of Messrs Davis, Hollobone, Jenkin and Rees-Mogg. Funny how those names keep recurring. It's almost as if there was a pattern.

kle4 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

kle4 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It turns out that Conservatives are just as fervent believers in the magic money tree as Labour supporters - just different branches.

There are some Conservatives that feel Camborne are in the wrong party, they might well think that, I couldn't possibly comment.... but you would struggle to get a cigarette paper between Camborne and Clegg on most policies, apparently now including the EU.

Oh it's the populist right that believe most fervently in the magic money tree. They wouldn't agree to tax credit cuts, they wouldn't agree to pensions tax rises, they're now plotting against the Chancellor about changes to disability benefits. You can argue about each of these but there comes a point where you have to accept that the money needs to come from somewhere. The Conservative right, in its Europhobic mania, is regressing to infantility.

That's exactly what my rants have been about this morning.

These are the people you're lining up with in the referendum. And it's their complete lack of realism and perspective that I have repeatedly warned about.

Even people who are wrong about a lot of things can be right about some things. And you just said the other lot believe in the magic money tree, so both sides in the referendum contain large groups who lack realism and perspective on some issues.

Ask yourself this: if Leave wins, will it be the realists in the ascendant or the infantile fantasists? Which is more likely to produce good governance for the country?

It's a concern, frankly . Governance probably will suffer (even if Cameron and co are a bit crappy, they've generally been ok and moderate) in the short term at the least, although some are determine to kick out ruling clique even if remain win, so I fear well get a load if disruption regardless. It's taking a gamble about the long term, when governance will return to normal and we have the benefit of not being in the EU.

Can we endure a period of instability that leaving would cause and would the long term benefit be worth it? Reasonable people will disagree, but certainly it won't bevsunshine and roses from the start.

Good day all.

In the long run, we all die. Short runs can last a long time.

blackburn63 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

blackburn63 said:

Danny565 said:

I can only assume Osborne is on a mission to make Ed Miliband look normal and socially-competent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FvCUbaf9z8&feature=youtu.be

This is the sort of socially inept freak we have governing us. We should sneer at people like Osborne treat him with contempt. Unbelievably there are people, this site is a perfect example, who still hold politicians in some esteem simply because they wear the right colour rosette.

Alternatively there are people who think politicians are doing a good job because they're doing what they believe in which is why they support that colour rosette in the first place.

I care more about what the Chancellor is doing for the economy and taxes than I do how awkward he is when being filmed wish schoolchildren. If you think the latter is more important then more fool you and bring back Blair.

Bring back Blair? What an extraordinary thing to say, another example of tribalism.

If I honestly believed that, as you opine, they're doing what they believe in I wouldn't be so critical, most of them simply follow the whip for the good of their career, it has nothing to do with principles.

Not tribalism, just pointing out the dichotomy between being unawkward but not necessarily competent versus potentially competent but awkward. To be perfectly frank if I was interviewed trying to hold a conversation with a group of young schoolchildren I'd probably feel pretty awkward too.

Don't Academies poll badly? Or is that free schools?

DavidL said:

So now we are supposedly going to have to restore disability spending which wasn't actually in the budget but which has become cause of the day. I am getting a little tired of Tory backbenchers who say that they want sweeping cuts in public spending and a balanced budget but not that particular cut. First we had the nonsense on in work benefits and now this.

The fact is that the level of expenditure on benefits in this country was and is too high. It distorts public spending away from necessary capital investment into current spending. This in turn undermines our productivity, our long term growth prospects and feeds our balance of payments problems.

The speed with which IDS has been able to bring in Universal Credit has had me tearing my hair out for several years now but the fact is that he was given targets to meet in cutting benefits as part of the deficit reduction strategy. He has chosen some low hanging fruit which includes a lot of people who were getting DLA for reasons that were frequently not particularly obvious. At the same time those with more serious disabilities are already getting more money and support than ever before.

Tory backbenchers really need to grow some backbone. The deficit reduction targets are difficult and are going to get more so. Tories are either committed to reduce the size and cost of the State in the belief that the economy will grow faster and create yet more jobs if we spend more of our own money or they aren't. The WTC fiasco cost the taxayer about £4bn. Now we are talking about another £4bn on disability benefits. The deficit is simply not going to come down, the economy is not going to be rebalanced, capital spending is not going to increase and the trade deficit is not going to fall if we go on like this.

There's always money for Cameron and Osborne to throw at their political problems and always money for Cameron and Osborne to throw at their pet projects.

So its inevitable that other Conservative politicians will want more money to throw at their own political problems and to throw at their own pet projects.

If you want to encourage financial restraint in others you first have to show it yourself.

And that's something Cameron and Osborne aren't willing to do.

AlastairMeeks said:

kle4 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It turns out that Conservatives are just as fervent believers in the magic money tree as Labour supporters - just different branches.

There are some Conservatives that feel Camborne are in the wrong party, they might well think that, I couldn't possibly comment.... but you would struggle to get a cigarette paper between Camborne and Clegg on most policies, apparently now including the EU.

Oh it's the populist right that believe most fervently in the magic money tree. They wouldn't agree to tax credit cuts, they wouldn't agree to pensions tax rises, they're now plotting against the Chancellor about changes to disability benefits. You can argue about each of these but there comes a point where you have to accept that the money needs to come from somewhere. The Conservative right, in its Europhobic mania, is regressing to infantility.

That's exactly what my rants have been about this morning.

These are the people you're lining up with in the referendum. And it's their complete lack of realism and perspective that I have repeatedly warned about.

Even people who are wrong about a lot of things can be right about some things. And you just said the other lot believe in the magic money tree, so both sides in the referendum contain large groups who lack realism and perspective on some issues.

Ask yourself this: if Leave wins, will it be the realists in the ascendant or the infantile fantasists? Which is more likely to produce good governance for the country?

But, isn't some drama in government good fun for the rest of us?

Roger said:

For those of us who have abandoned Labour because of Corbyn a tiny chink of light has appeared.

IF 'Leave' win and IF one of the leading 'Leavers' becomes leader and IF the current Tory leadership is sidelined then all those left and left of centre voters who have abandoned Corbyn's Labour would not only return en masse but with vigour.

...which would make Corbyn hot favourite to be PM in 2020

Cameron is going this Parliament no matter what which removes the perverse incentive to vote Remain to keep Cameron for me. Lets vote for Leave on its merits.

Gove (who would be my choice for PM) is one of the present Tory leadership.

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Awwww FeckPissAndShite it wasn't a dream, that YouGov poll really did happen

Since when did we start believing opinion polls again?

Last night, otherwise it'd not be as funny a poll, obviously.

Amidst all the Labour Lead furore - UKIP on 16.

Anyway - anyone think that the 'tampon tax' is going to be David Cameron's "British Sausage/ High fat offal tube" attempt - an inconsequential change of EU policy dressed up to show we have influence?

In the best Lynton Crosby tradition of distracting from poor polling,

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/710747805602676736

richardDodd said:

Why are battlescarred PBrs suddenly embracing one poll...have they all forgotten the last GE.....

It's several polls that have shown a substantial decline in the Con share.

The polls might not be accurate number-for-number but when they all trend in the same way, you can be pretty sure that the trend is happening.

Roger said:

For those of us who have abandoned Labour because of Corbyn a tiny chink of light has appeared.

IF 'Leave' win and IF one of the leading 'Leavers' becomes leader and IF the current Tory leadership is sidelined then all those left and left of centre voters who have abandoned Corbyn's Labour would not only return en masse but with vigour.

...which would make Corbyn hot favourite to be PM in 2020

Are you saying that you left Labour because of Corbyn but would like him to be Prime Minister? Why leave then?

david_herdson said:

In the best Lynton Crosby tradition of distracting from poor polling,

A new addition to the Herdson household due late September. Proud, excited and ever so slightly scared.

twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/710747805602676736

Congratulations.

Congratulations, Mr. Herdson.

Dare one ask if you've bet on the birthday?

JackW said:

watford30 said:

2020 might not be a nailed on win then for the Tories? What a surprise. Complacency will do for them, and Osborne's continued silly games. He's Brown to the core.

How many points will Project Fear add to the Labour score when Cameron and Co really ramp up the ludicrous horror stories, and the proper fighting starts?

Any PBer who seriously thinks the British electorate will put Jezza into Downing Street over any evenly mildly incompetent Conservative is having a brain fart of such epic proportions that it makes the late lamented @Cromwell assertion that Rubio would be the next president appear as a genius moment of political punditry.

My view is that Corbyn's aim is to change the Labour party's governance. Then, a year or two before the next election, he will stand down and be replaced by another nuttera like-minded individual, the new rules highly favouring nutters like-minded individuals.

The new leader should get a bounce, and if they choose carefully will not have the same hideous backstory as Corbyn. They might even choose someone who can dress and speak well.

It's not Corbyn the country needs to be afraid of: it is his politics.

Edit: but you, know, it's a poll. Does anyone actually trust them?

david_herdson said:

richardDodd said:

Why are battlescarred PBrs suddenly embracing one poll...have they all forgotten the last GE.....

It's several polls that have shown a substantial decline in the Con share.

The polls might not be accurate number-for-number but when they all trend in the same way, you can be pretty sure that the trend is happening.

Usually.

But they trended towards Labour in the week before the general election.

And congratulations and good luck.

Congrats to Mr Herdson and Mr Fletcher.

Roger said:

For those of us who have abandoned Labour because of Corbyn a tiny chink of light has appeared.

IF 'Leave' win and IF one of the leading 'Leavers' becomes leader and IF the current Tory leadership is sidelined then all those left and left of centre voters who have abandoned Corbyn's Labour would not only return en masse but with vigour.

...which would make Corbyn hot favourite to be PM in 2020

Having a party leader that's in tune with more than 50% of the electorate isn't necessarily something that usually drives an election defeat.

Admittedly, there is a lot more to it than that - no other Conservative manages to score as well as Cameron on being both liked and respected - but Corbyn will still be an economic illiterate with terrorist-appeasing credentials.

Cheltenham Day 4

Picks as accurate as an opinion poll...

1.30 Ivanovich Gorbatov

2.10 Starchitect

2.50 Shantou Village

3.30 Don Cossack

4.10 It Came To Pass

4.50 Ibis Du Rheu

5.30 Raven's Tower

Plato_Says said:

Does Lady Bucket have any redeeming qualities?

.@EmilyThornberry criticising @NickyMorgan01 for trying to improve local schools but sent her child to selective school 14 miles away #bbcqt

She rose from humble beginnings helped only by a father (Labour parliamentary candidate, LSE Professor, United Nations Assistant General Secretary) and mother (Labour councillor and Mayor) of equally working class background.

Philip Thompson


"Cameron is going this Parliament no matter what which removes the perverse incentive to vote Remain to keep Cameron for me. Lets vote for Leave on its merits.

Gove (who would be my choice for PM) is one of the present Tory leadership."

Whichever of the 'Leavers' takes control it'll look as if the party had tacked RIGHT and for most centrist voters the hard(ish) left will always trump the hard(ish) right.

It's not only Corbyn in isolation that is making the Tories seem invulnerable but the additional fact that Osborne and Cameron are not particularly threatening. Replace them with Johnson/Gove/IDS/ and most centrist voters will see it as UKIP light

JosiasJessop said:

Congrats to Mr Herdson and Mr Fletcher.

Indeed so ....

Clearly it vindicates my theory that PBers do it better and more often ....

One PB GAIN overnight and one in September ....

......................................................................................

Laters ....

another_richard said:

david_herdson said:

richardDodd said:

Why are battlescarred PBrs suddenly embracing one poll...have they all forgotten the last GE.....

It's several polls that have shown a substantial decline in the Con share.

The polls might not be accurate number-for-number but when they all trend in the same way, you can be pretty sure that the trend is happening.

Usually.

But they trended towards Labour in the week before the general election.

And congratulations and good luck.

We don't know that that trend wasn't correct. Perhaps if the election had been a week earlier, the Conservatives would have won a majority of 16 rather than 8, say?

At this stage in a parliament, identifying a trend is good enough. In the week before the election, without a solid baseline, it's a long way from being so!

Roger said:

Philip Thompson


"

Cameron is going this Parliament no matter what which removes the perverse incentive to vote Remain to keep Cameron for me. Lets vote for Leave on its merits.

Gove (who would be my choice for PM) is one of the present Tory leadership."

Whichever of the 'Leavers' takes control it'll look as if the party had tacked RIGHT and for most centrist voters the hard(ish) left will always trump the hard(ish) right.

It's not only Corbyn in isolation that is making the Tories seem invulnerable but the additional fact that Osborne and Cameron are not particularly threatening. Replace them with Johnson/Gove/IDS/ and most centrist voters will see it as UKIP light

Given a straight choice between left wing Labour party, and a right wing Conservative party, voters in marginal seats will opt for the latter. They showed that in the 1980's. A left wing Labour party threatens their property.

Wanderer said:

Roger said:

For those of us who have abandoned Labour because of Corbyn a tiny chink of light has appeared.

IF 'Leave' win and IF one of the leading 'Leavers' becomes leader and IF the current Tory leadership is sidelined then all those left and left of centre voters who have abandoned Corbyn's Labour would not only return en masse but with vigour.

...which would make Corbyn hot favourite to be PM in 2020

Are you saying that you left Labour because of Corbyn but would like him to be Prime Minister? Why leave then?

No. Like many on here and elsewhere voting for a Corbyn/Mcdonnel Labour Party isn't something I'm planning to do but in a zero sum game where the choice is that or a Tory Party led by Gove/IDS/Johnson then it becomes the lesser of two evils which is Corbyn/Mcdonnel by a distance

Congratulations Mr Herdson!

chestnut said:

The day before UKIP won the 2014 Euros
23 May 2014 C 34 L 35 LD 9 UK 13

The day before the Tory majority
06 May 2015 C 34 L 34 LD 10 UK 12

And presently;
17 Mar 2016 C 33 L 34 LD 6 UK 16

Congratulations, David.

Direct swing from LD to UKIP.

blackburn63 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

blackburn63 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

blackburn63 said:

Danny565 said:

I can only assume Osborne is on a mission to make Ed Miliband look normal and socially-competent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FvCUbaf9z8&feature=youtu.be

This is the sort of socially inept freak we have governing us. We should sneer at people like Osborne treat him with contempt. Unbelievably there are people, this site is a perfect example, who still hold politicians in some esteem simply because they wear the right colour rosette.

Alternatively there are people who think politicians are doing a good job because they're doing what they believe in which is why they support that colour rosette in the first place.

I care more about what the Chancellor is doing for the economy and taxes than I do how awkward he is when being filmed wish schoolchildren. If you think the latter is more important then more fool you and bring back Blair.

Bring back Blair? What an extraordinary thing to say, another example of tribalism.

If I honestly believed that, as you opine, they're doing what they believe in I wouldn't be so critical, most of them simply follow the whip for the good of their career, it has nothing to do with principles.

Not tribalism, just pointing out the dichotomy between being unawkward but not necessarily competent versus potentially competent but awkward. To be perfectly frank if I was interviewed trying to hold a conversation with a group of young schoolchildren I'd probably feel pretty awkward too.

So why on earth was Osborne filmed eating cereal with children?

The bloke is a weirdo, the epitome of the out of touch elite. I heard him being skewered by Humphries on R4 yesterday, it was cringeworthy.

Morning all,

Reading some of the analysis in today's papers, it looks like Osborne has done it again and managed to create a budget disaster. Key message, we taking money from people who are so disabled they struggle to feed themselves or use the loo, and given it to middle class professionals who earn around £40K+ a year. A total disaster, as predicted by many of us on PB.

Here's Ian Birrell in DT:

"Regardless, George Osborne managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with a cut disturbing even many loyal supporters in Westminster. “This is the most angry I have seen people since I was elected,” said one backbencher from the 2010 intake."

I presume that Dave, who reliably vetoes attacks on the disabled, was away with work at the EU when this was discussed.

Jezza is saved !!!!!!!

Sound the 12 gun salute

Four more years of Corbyn
Four more years of Corbyn
La la la la
La la la la

To be fair I think that any adult of Osborne's age would feel a bit awkward conversing in the public eye with very small children. The only politician I've seen do it convincingly was Ed Balls.

I wonder if there is a fundamental problem in Britain and some other countries that ineffective deficit reduction coupled with sops to party supporters is gradually undermining the consensus (whether right or wrong) that did exist that debt is a serious issue and bringing it down is a priority. A widespread perception in Britain is that Osborne has been flailing away for 6 years, missing all the targets and bashing various more or less innocent civilians, and some more years of the same fails to appeal. People don't follow the details, but they notice that the world hasn't collapsed under the current deficit burden and that the assault on the deficit doesn't seem to be obviously successful. It's that which undermines support for individual elements - people will buy a harsh package with short-term effects, but they don't like it dragging on.

I'm not a believer in magic money trees myself, so I don't think this is altogether healthy for the public discourse. We might disagree on what needs to be done but the consent to do anything very much is ebbing away.

MikeK said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Congratulations Mr Herdson!

chestnut said:

The day before UKIP won the 2014 Euros
23 May 2014 C 34 L 35 LD 9 UK 13

The day before the Tory majority
06 May 2015 C 34 L 34 LD 10 UK 12

And presently;
17 Mar 2016 C 33 L 34 LD 6 UK 16

Congratulations, David.

Direct swing from LD to UKIP.

Excuse me, but why are we congratulating Mr Herdson this morning?

Going to be a father.

David H


"Do you have any evidence for the assertion I've italicised? Cough - 80s - cough."

(Congratulations)

Looking at the recent history of the Tory Party

1990-Tories boot out Thatcher because she was going to lose so replaced her with Major a moderate.

Replaced him with '100 days to save the £' crackpot Hague-humiliation
Replaced him with bonkers IDS-humiliation
Replaced him with 'Kick out the Gypos' Howard-humiliation
Replace him with moderate Cameron-A Hamlet moment

Since Thatcher the electorate never want to see another right wing nutter again!

Problem with Osborne is that he don't learn from his mistakes. In first Omnishambles he cut the upper rate for the wealthy while inflicting big cuts on the rest of us. This budget he has given big tax rises for the upper middle class while hammering the disabled. The British people are prudent lot, and are willing to suffer while deficit is closed, but not when Chancellor is handing away the money saved in big tax cuts to Tory supporters.

MikeK said:

JosiasJessop said:

MikeK said:

david_herdson said:

MikeK said:

Good morning.
More importantly this morning, the EU is prepared to lick Turkeys bum on the migrant deal, according to the BBC and the PM of that great dutchy, Luxembourg.

Migrant crisis: EU agrees joint position to put to Turkey

All those wanting to remain in this god cursed union will have to continue to obey the likes of Luxembourg and co, on any idiot action they dream up. And if anyone talks of veto I'll laugh even more till he tears run down my face.

Do you not think it would be quite a good idea to try to do a deal with Turkey re the migrants?

No. Turkey, if allowed any grace within the EU will use all it's power under Erdogan to try and islamise great parts of the EU.

NURSE !

DOCTOR!!

I am in need of a doctor, but not due to that post.

But seriously: talk about Project Fear ...

LewisDuckworth said:

The EU and Whose Army - how on earth do Merkel and the Sprouts imagine they're going to actually implement the One Out in their One In, One Out plan for migrants held in Greece ... or is it just all Typical EU B*llsh*t? An easier implementation, though, is visa-free travel for 75 million Turks plus whoever can forge a Turkish identity.

Also, Turks have an incentive for secretly letting more through so they can then swap existing refugees later. And get paid for the pleasure.

I've started to see Boris-fronted Zac adverts on Youtube. Not sure what this signifies. Back to Cheltenham and congratulations to the Herdson clan. Quite a clear picture, too.