Not a fluke. Bleeding obvious. And it is Cameron's fault. He needs to shut up and back the blue side the the Liberal elite. Zac only has 10% chance. Cameron ha skilled him, perhaps deliberately. But Cameron likely to face leadership challenge for his dis-loyalty to the party.
I thought the Tory vote was split around 50-50 on the EU issue (and much more in his favour on other issues)? Granted, it's not my party, but if a party is split on an issue in such proportions is it really disloyalty to back either side?
Of course, many get around that by just claiming nearly all Remainers don't believe it they are just gutless, which I think is more insulting than necessary, and I'm a Leaver!
I think we're now at the stage where no benefits can be cut at all - in cash terms. .
Yes, we appear to be at a point where the public will punish any further cuts that break through into popular discourse at least, but I'd bet good money still won't accept any other measures to pay for what they expect the government to do.
I've not see so much interest in a poll since the YouGov poll during the Indyref that put Yes ahead.
Seems to me that the Tory party has fallen apart ever since Cameron brought back the dreadful "deal"
When historians look at British political history I suspect they will date the peak of Tory hubris to the day before the Deal, when all seemed sunlit uplands: Corbyn as the feeble joke enemy, the Scot Nats defeated, the Lib Dems humiliated, UKIP at bay, the EU referendum a shoo-in.
And now, here we are.
I expect the Tories to win in 2020 if Corbyn stays leader, but the Tories won't be this cocky again for a generation. Or more.
The Tories dramatic loss of support isn't principally about their being split ..... Labour is split too. It's actually more about Cameron's very considerable failure in obtaining any significantly improved terms from the EU in his so-called re-negotiations and worse still trying to convince the British electorate to believe the contrary, rounded off by a panic referendum to be held in June when he had originally set himself a timetable until the end of 2017, which would have provided sufficient time for a very much more considered and thorough approach towards our original objectives. In short Cameron has completely blown it and the British people aren't fools - they know they've been badly let down.
The Tories dramatic loss of support isn't principally about the their being split ..... Labour is split too. It's actually more about Cameron's very considerable failure in obtaining any significantly improved terms from the EU in his so-called re-negotiations and worse still trying to convince the British electorate to believe the contrary, rounded off by a panic referendum to be held in June when he had originally set himself a timetable until the end of 2017, which would have provided sufficient time for a very much more considered and thorough approach towards our original objectives. In short Cameron has completely blown it and the British people aren't fools - they know they've been badly let down.
No, it really is just about those blue-on-blue attacks. The Tory voters just have a wave of apathy for the party.
I'm surprised the whole, remove all schools from local authory control thing, hasn't had more air time.
Speaking as someone without children, I've never been interested enough to know what academy status means and why it is good/bad, but given how it engages some people so intently I too am surprised the latest happening hasn't been a bigger deal.
The Tories dramatic loss of support isn't principally about the their being split ..... Labour is split too. It's actually more about Cameron's very considerable failure in obtaining any significantly improved terms from the EU in his so-called re-negotiations and worse still trying to convince the British electorate to believe the contrary, rounded off by a panic referendum to be held in June when he had originally set himself a timetable until the end of 2017, which would have provided sufficient time for a very much more considered and thorough approach towards our original objectives. In short Cameron has completely blown it and the British people aren't fools - they know they've been badly let down.
1) 90%+ of people won't have the faintest idea what Cameron got / didn't get from the EU. 2) If it was EU related, polls would have moved 3 weeks ago, not just now. 3) Lab is more pro EU than Con - so EU dissatisfaction cannot explain Con to Lab shift
It's far more likely to be due to:
1) Con disunity 2) Corbyn less in news - less focus on Lab 3) Budget / economic concerns 4) Disability proposals making Con look like Nasty Party
The Tories dramatic loss of support isn't principally about the their being split ..... Labour is split too. It's actually more about Cameron's very considerable failure in obtaining any significantly improved terms from the EU in his so-called re-negotiations and worse still trying to convince the British electorate to believe the contrary, rounded off by a panic referendum to be held in June when he had originally set himself a timetable until the end of 2017, which would have provided sufficient time for a very much more considered and thorough approach towards our original objectives. In short Cameron has completely blown it and the British people aren't fools - they know they've been badly let down.
1) 90%+ of people won't have the faintest idea what Cameron got / didn't get from the EU. 2) If it was EU related, polls would have moved 3 weeks ago, not just now. 3) Lab is more pro EU than Con - so EU dissatisfaction cannot explain Con to Lab shift
A fair interpretation.
Blues knocking lumps off each other is all that is required.
Ian Birrell @ianbirrell Listening to Nicky Morgan on #bbcqt, sounds like government preparing for rapid U-turn on disability benefit cuts. Good news if true
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne Nicky Morgan on PIP cuts in the Budget: “we are still engaged in a discussion” #bbcqt
That's the trouble of course - the budget might not actually be that bad, and the bits that are may well be reversed, but all that will be remembered is the initial reaction.
The omnishambles budget was like that as well. The Treasury seem to make a right balls up in a relatively minor change that overshadows the whole.
The result of a part time chancellor. Just trying to take all the decisions and not doing a thorough job.
The Tories dramatic loss of support isn't principally about the their being split ..... Labour is split too. It's actually more about Cameron's very considerable failure in obtaining any significantly improved terms from the EU in his so-called re-negotiations and worse still trying to convince the British electorate to believe the contrary, rounded off by a panic referendum to be held in June when he had originally set himself a timetable until the end of 2017, which would have provided sufficient time for a very much more considered and thorough approach towards our original objectives. In short Cameron has completely blown it and the British people aren't fools - they know they've been badly let down.
No, it really is just about those blue-on-blue attacks. The Tory voters just have a wave of apathy for the party.
Ian Birrell @ianbirrell Listening to Nicky Morgan on #bbcqt, sounds like government preparing for rapid U-turn on disability benefit cuts. Good news if true
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne Nicky Morgan on PIP cuts in the Budget: “we are still engaged in a discussion” #bbcqt
I'm surprised the whole, remove all schools from local authory control thing, hasn't had more air time.
Councils are not exactly highly regarded as institutions...
One size fits all education has never been overwhelmingly popular either.
The only people on my timeline who are angry at this are old fashioned Northern lefities. The sort who would rail against the Tories for anything.
On this - and not much else - I will defend the govt (and indeed the Labour govt prior, which introduced them). Academies are popular. Councils aren't. This is not a vote-changer.
(Nor is it an election winner, as it is seen as bipartisan, if anything)
Agreed.
Short of reintroducing Grammar schools, Academies are an education policy I can support.
Healthy food is cheaper than unhealthy food. Carrots, beans and cabbage hardly cost anything compared to MacDonalds. (Unless you live in Crouch End, probably).
George Eaton @georgeeaton After tax credits, Google tax and Sunday Trading, Osborne now heading for retreat over PIP cuts. So many mistakes in so little time.
The Tories dramatic loss of support isn't principally about the their being split ..... Labour is split too. It's actually more about Cameron's very considerable failure in obtaining any significantly improved terms from the EU in his so-called re-negotiations and worse still trying to convince the British electorate to believe the contrary, rounded off by a panic referendum to be held in June when he had originally set himself a timetable until the end of 2017, which would have provided sufficient time for a very much more considered and thorough approach towards our original objectives. In short Cameron has completely blown it and the British people aren't fools - they know they've been badly let down.
1) 90%+ of people won't have the faintest idea what Cameron got / didn't get from the EU. 2) If it was EU related, polls would have moved 3 weeks ago, not just now. 3) Lab is more pro EU than Con - so EU dissatisfaction cannot explain Con to Lab shift
It's far more likely to be due to:
1) Con disunity 2) Corbyn less in news - less focus on Lab 3) Budget / economic concerns 4) Disability proposals making Con look like Nasty Party
People are smart enough to know Cameron got jackshit from Europe.
Agreed - I'm sure people do know that.
But that will not be a driver for Con to Lab movement in voting intention.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB And another Council defeat for CON @britainelects: Lincolnshire Independent GAIN Ashby de la Launde & Cranwell (North Kesteven) from CON
The Tories dramatic loss of support isn't principally about the their being split ..... Labour is split too. It's actually more about Cameron's very considerable failure in obtaining any significantly improved terms from the EU in his so-called re-negotiations and worse still trying to convince the British electorate to believe the contrary, rounded off by a panic referendum to be held in June when he had originally set himself a timetable until the end of 2017, which would have provided sufficient time for a very much more considered and thorough approach towards our original objectives. In short Cameron has completely blown it and the British people aren't fools - they know they've been badly let down.
1) 90%+ of people won't have the faintest idea what Cameron got / didn't get from the EU. 2) If it was EU related, polls would have moved 3 weeks ago, not just now. 3) Lab is more pro EU than Con - so EU dissatisfaction cannot explain Con to Lab shift
It's far more likely to be due to:
1) Con disunity 2) Corbyn less in news - less focus on Lab 3) Budget / economic concerns 4) Disability proposals making Con look like Nasty Party
People are smart enough to know Cameron got jackshit from Europe.
Agreed - I'm sure people do know that.
But that will not be a driver for Con to Lab movement in voting intention.
Con to UKIP possibly though. 33% + 16% is pretty consistent with the GE.
George Eaton @georgeeaton After tax credits, Google tax and Sunday Trading, Osborne now heading for retreat over PIP cuts. So many mistakes in so little time.
He's totally focused on taking over from Dave. Everything he does is about that.
But that will not be a driver for Con to Lab movement in voting intention.
Does Labour's increased support reflect a genuine 2020 voting intention or disaffection towards the government? I think quite a lot of it will be the latter.
Great series of polls - as Speedy illustrates, it does qualify as a trend rather than an outlier. A pro-EU concern, though: there is a traditional tendency for referenda to turn into votes for or against the government, especially among voters who don't care very much. If so, it's an awkward moment for Remain for the Tories to shoot themselves in both feet.
George Eaton @georgeeaton After tax credits, Google tax and Sunday Trading, Osborne now heading for retreat over PIP cuts. So many mistakes in so little time.
He's totally focused on taking over from Dave. Everything he does is about that.
He seems terrible at it - if he is to succeed Cameron it'll be down to events outside his control like global economic recovery, so he'd do better not trying any maneuvrring and just hoping for the best.
But - I recall saying that the tactic of taking the public for fools, and indeed publicly gloating about how you are doing just that, was very unwise.
Dave thought he could rush it, bodge it, and sell it. I think we now need to seriously consider the possibility that Dave is in fact a gigantic berk, and not a great statesman.
Great series of polls - as Speedy illustrates, it does qualify as a trend rather than an outlier. A pro-EU concern, though: there is a traditional tendency for referenda to turn into votes for or against the government, especially among voters who don't care very much. If so, it's an awkward moment for Remain for the Tories to shoot themselves in both feet.
I think that it is clear that many Tories are for Leave, and even the Remain Tories are halfhearted at best. Voters wanting to kick the government will vote Remain.
Great series of polls - as Speedy illustrates, it does qualify as a trend rather than an outlier. A pro-EU concern, though: there is a traditional tendency for referenda to turn into votes for or against the government, especially among voters who don't care very much. If so, it's an awkward moment for Remain for the Tories to shoot themselves in both feet.
I think that it is clear that many Tories are for Leave, and even the Remain Tories are halfhearted at best. Voters wanting to kick the government will vote Remain.
uh, no they won't. Not when the Tory PM and the Tory Chancellor are the lead figures for REMAIN
What a silly remark.
It is quite obvious from all the banging on about Europe that the Tories are mostly for Leave. Therefore vote Remain.
Which side are you supporting this week? I find it hard to keep up with your flip-flopping.
George Parker @GeorgeWParker According to Nicky Morgan the £4bn of savings in the Budget red book from disability benefit cuts are just "a suggestion" #bbcqt
Went to the National Portrait Gallery this evening and a man was wearing a 'Making America Great Again' baseball cap, not the place you would normally expect to see a Trump supporter
Osborne really has turned out to be the most objectionable little sh**, hasn't he? He almost seems to be trying to live up to his own caricature.
He did a lot of good things in the budget but the PIP decision is just plain wrong. However the back bencher's will force a change but he is not going to be next PM . (Neither is Boris)
Great series of polls - as Speedy illustrates, it does qualify as a trend rather than an outlier. A pro-EU concern, though: there is a traditional tendency for referenda to turn into votes for or against the government, especially among voters who don't care very much. If so, it's an awkward moment for Remain for the Tories to shoot themselves in both feet.
Yes. I see these as BAD polls for REMAIN. The more unpopular Cameron and the Tories become, the more likely voters will ether tick LEAVE to piss off the government or simply abstain and enjoy Tory infighting.
A double edged sword for lefty europhiles, like yourself. I can easily see this vote being won by LEAVE, because of Labourite apathy - as you have often pointed out.
Leave benefits Corbyn rather than Cameron, Corbyn voted against the EEC in 1975 anyway and a Leave vote gets rid of Cameron the Tories' best electoral asset
Great series of polls - as Speedy illustrates, it does qualify as a trend rather than an outlier. A pro-EU concern, though: there is a traditional tendency for referenda to turn into votes for or against the government, especially among voters who don't care very much. If so, it's an awkward moment for Remain for the Tories to shoot themselves in both feet.
Yes. I see these as BAD polls for REMAIN. The more unpopular Cameron and the Tories become, the more likely voters will ether tick LEAVE to piss off the government or simply abstain and enjoy Tory infighting.
A double edged sword for lefty europhiles, like yourself. I can easily see this vote being won by LEAVE, because of Labourite apathy - as you have often pointed out.
Leave benefits Corbyn rather than Cameron, Corbyn voted against the EEC in 1975 anyway and a Leave vote gets rid of Cameron the Tories' best electoral asset
Be a good idea to get rid of Corbyn at the same time
Great series of polls - as Speedy illustrates, it does qualify as a trend rather than an outlier. A pro-EU concern, though: there is a traditional tendency for referenda to turn into votes for or against the government, especially among voters who don't care very much. If so, it's an awkward moment for Remain for the Tories to shoot themselves in both feet.
Yes. I see these as BAD polls for REMAIN. The more unpopular Cameron and the Tories become, the more likely voters will ether tick LEAVE to piss off the government or simply abstain and enjoy Tory infighting.
A double edged sword for lefty europhiles, like yourself. I can easily see this vote being won by LEAVE, because of Labourite apathy - as you have often pointed out.
Leave benefits Corbyn rather than Cameron, Corbyn voted against the EEC in 1975 anyway and a Leave vote gets rid of Cameron the Tories' best electoral asset
Be a good idea to get rid of Corbyn at the same time
Corbyn is about as anti EU a leader as Labour are going to get, as I said a Leave vote boosts Corbyn
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa Emily Thornberry is right to worry about jobs if we leave the EU: the cost of one's domestic servants will go up, as Lord Rose confirmed
I'm surprised the whole, remove all schools from local authory control thing, hasn't had more air time.
Councils are not exactly highly regarded as institutions...
One size fits all education has never been overwhelmingly popular either.
The only people on my timeline who are angry at this are old fashioned Northern lefities. The sort who would rail against the Tories for anything.
On this - and not much else - I will defend the govt (and indeed the Labour govt prior, which introduced them). Academies are popular. Councils aren't. This is not a vote-changer.
(Nor is it an election winner, as it is seen as bipartisan, if anything)
Went through an admissions appeals process for an academy last year, basically a lot of the same back offices services are contracted back to the council in many cases, but the accountability chain is weakened. We got into appealing the appeal decision and found a lot of detailed guidelines on precedent just didn't apply to academies, even though they were contracted in to an identical appeals process as an LEA school, and the ultimate appeal was to a funding body which was acting somehow as an ombudsman. So, to academise everything the accountability chain certainly needs some improvement. The BBC did note today that DoE is considered to be struggling with their new responsibilities, and that chimes.
I wonder if by completing the academy conversion process, the government is actually wanting to go back to a more LEA style setup, just without the involvement of the Local Authorities. Essentially the council education departments will be privatised/mutualised becoming third-sector/private academy chains (plus back office services companies that will ultimately be absorbed into all those multinational, often French, service organisations). The ex-LEA academy chains are likely to be stronger than existing bottom up academy chains, potentially absorbing back in schools both inside and outside their parent LEAs. Watch out for those director pay and bonus, consultancy fees and mergers & acquistion stories. I also wonder if the relevant sections of LGOs and various other bodies with a finger in the education pie will be spun off more like the regulators for the utility industries and whether they will sit separately or as part of an expanded Ofsted.
Well I've been warning the Tories on here about just how complacent and arrogant they have become to believe that any one of them can beat Corbyn in 2020, and lo and behold they find themselves behind for the first time in this parliament. I have cautioned that absolutely nothing is impossible politically over the next 4 years once the sovereign debt crisis gets into full swing. Trump is showing that anything is possible in this climate in the US right now. Nobody should be so complacent as to believe that there is zero chance of Corbyn ever becoming PM. Under a normal economic climate that would be true, but this isn't normal and the level of public anger and outrage with establishment politics around the world now is such that people like Corbyn and Trump and Marine Le Pen could get into power on the back of this seething swell of anger all around us.
Well I've been warning the Tories on here about just how complacent and arrogant they have become to believe that any one of them can beat Corbyn in 2020, and lo and behold they find themselves behind for the first time in this parliament. I have cautioned that absolutely nothing is impossible politically over the next 4 years once the sovereign debt crisis gets into full swing. Trump is showing that anything is possible in this climate in the US right now. Nobody should be so complacent as to believe that there is zero chance of Corbyn ever becoming PM. Under a normal economic climate that would be true, but this isn't normal and the level of public anger and outrage with establishment politics around the world now is such that people like Corbyn and Trump and Marine Le Pen could get into power on the back of this seething swell of anger all around us.
Possible but unlikely. I expect Hillary to eventually see off Sanders and then narrowly beat Trump, Hollande to narrowly beat Le Pen in the second round, Remain to narrowly win EU ref and the Tories to be largest party in a hung parliament in 2020. In every case populists will cause the establishment a shock but will not actually win. Economically we have seen the worst of it in 2008 now is just the aftershock of the crash and concern over immigration
The Tories dramatic loss of support isn't principally about the their being split ..... Labour is split too. It's actually more about Cameron's very considerable failure in obtaining any significantly improved terms from the EU in his so-called re-negotiations and worse still trying to convince the British electorate to believe the contrary, rounded off by a panic referendum to be held in June when he had originally set himself a timetable until the end of 2017, which would have provided sufficient time for a very much more considered and thorough approach towards our original objectives. In short Cameron has completely blown it and the British people aren't fools - they know they've been badly let down.
1) 90%+ of people won't have the faintest idea what Cameron got / didn't get from the EU. 2) If it was EU related, polls would have moved 3 weeks ago, not just now. 3) Lab is more pro EU than Con - so EU dissatisfaction cannot explain Con to Lab shift
It's far more likely to be due to:
1) Con disunity 2) Corbyn less in news - less focus on Lab 3) Budget / economic concerns 4) Disability proposals making Con look like Nasty Party
I agree, except that I think that for once Corbyn and McDonnell made a decent fist out of focusing discontent in their unequivocal reaction to the Budget. There was no little red book, and this time the Conservatives failed to come up with a dead cat beloved of the far left with which to distract them. (Compare and contrast that absence with the masterful timing of Cameron's announcement of a Syria vote to dominate the news headlines the morning after the Autumn Statement, knowing that Corbyn would immediately fall for it and spend a week splitting his party to absolutely no avail.)
I share your view that the Conservative disunity on Europe isn't really harming them. It may be helping them. At least it allows neither In nor Out supporters to conclude that their party is unequivocally at odds with their views. The leadership are In, the bulk of the membership Out. By contrast, by claiming that the EU is the best thing since sliced bread, Labour seems to be doing its damnedness to try and give the impression that it doesn't want the votes of all but the most committed Europhile, that is a small minority of the generally Eurosceptic electorate (including those hostile to the EU but reluctantly toying with an In vote as a least bad option).
Great series of polls - as Speedy illustrates, it does qualify as a trend rather than an outlier. A pro-EU concern, though: there is a traditional tendency for referenda to turn into votes for or against the government, especially among voters who don't care very much. If so, it's an awkward moment for Remain for the Tories to shoot themselves in both feet.
Yes. I see these as BAD polls for REMAIN. The more unpopular Cameron and the Tories become, the more likely voters will ether tick LEAVE to piss off the government or simply abstain and enjoy Tory infighting.
A double edged sword for lefty europhiles, like yourself. I can easily see this vote being won by LEAVE, because of Labourite apathy - as you have often pointed out.
Leave benefits Corbyn rather than Cameron, Corbyn voted against the EEC in 1975 anyway and a Leave vote gets rid of Cameron the Tories' best electoral asset
Be a good idea to get rid of Corbyn at the same time
Corbyn is about as anti EU a leader as Labour are going to get, as I said a Leave vote boosts Corbyn
I do not think anything will boost Corbyn. If leave win politics will be dominated by the right
It rather looks as if ICM were far too quick to rubbish their own poll!
Bear in mind though that even IDS had a small lead over Labour in a few polls, in his case helped by Labour voters moving to the LDs just as Corbyn is helped by Tories moving to UKIP
Great series of polls - as Speedy illustrates, it does qualify as a trend rather than an outlier. A pro-EU concern, though: there is a traditional tendency for referenda to turn into votes for or against the government, especially among voters who don't care very much. If so, it's an awkward moment for Remain for the Tories to shoot themselves in both feet.
Yes. I see these as BAD polls for REMAIN. The more unpopular Cameron and the Tories become, the more likely voters will ether tick LEAVE to piss off the government or simply abstain and enjoy Tory infighting.
A double edged sword for lefty europhiles, like yourself. I can easily see this vote being won by LEAVE, because of Labourite apathy - as you have often pointed out.
Leave benefits Corbyn rather than Cameron, Corbyn voted against the EEC in 1975 anyway and a Leave vote gets rid of Cameron the Tories' best electoral asset
Be a good idea to get rid of Corbyn at the same time
Corbyn is about as anti EU a leader as Labour are going to get, as I said a Leave vote boosts Corbyn
I do not think anything will boost Corbyn. If leave win politics will be dominated by the right
The right will be split if Leave win even more so if a narrow Remain but that at least keeps Cameron in post
It rather looks as if ICM were far too quick to rubbish their own poll!
Bear in mind though that even IDS had a small lead over Labour in a few polls, in his case helped by Labour voters moving to the LDs just as Corbyn is helped by Tories moving to UKIP
Indeed so - but not until 2003 some two years into the 2001 Parliament.
It rather looks as if ICM were far too quick to rubbish their own poll!
Bear in mind though that even IDS had a small lead over Labour in a few polls, in his case helped by Labour voters moving to the LDs just as Corbyn is helped by Tories moving to UKIP
Indeed so - but not until 2003 some two years into the 2001 Parliament.
Yes but the key was Iraq which moved Labour voters to the LDs and the key now is EU ref moving Tories to UKIP. IDS also thus achieved leads on just 34% as Corbyn has with yougov
It is now very reasonable to say that Labour is performing a fair bit better than at the same stage of the 1987 and 1959 Parliaments. I refer to party lead rather than % vote share because national support has become much more fragmented over the last 20 years or so.
It is now very reasonable to say that Labour is performing a fair bit better than at the same stage of the 1987 and 1959 Parliaments. I refer to party lead rather than % vote share because national support has become much more fragmented over the last 20 years or so.
Labour won a majority in 1964 and by 1990 were on 50% plus, so Corbyn has a way to go to match that yet
It is now very reasonable to say that Labour is performing a fair bit better than at the same stage of the 1987 and 1959 Parliaments. I refer to party lead rather than % vote share because national support has become much more fragmented over the last 20 years or so.
Labour won a majority in 1964 and by 1990 were on 50% plus, so Corbyn has a way to go to match that yet
My comparison is with how Labour was faring in April 1988 and August 1960.
It is now very reasonable to say that Labour is performing a fair bit better than at the same stage of the 1987 and 1959 Parliaments. I refer to party lead rather than % vote share because national support has become much more fragmented over the last 20 years or so.
Labour won a majority in 1964 and by 1990 were on 50% plus, so Corbyn has a way to go to match that yet
My comparison is with how Labour was faring in April 1988 and August 1960.
In April 1980 Labour had a big lead and was trounced in 1983 polls go up and down
Oh dear. Osborne made me leave the Tory party in 2012 and he's now given Labour supporters who actually care about elections their first happy time in yonks. Shame that they don't have a team who could capitalise on that. Real shame.
Second boy arrived yesterday, by the way. Home and well so all good!
The Tories dramatic loss of support isn't principally about their being split ..... Labour is split too. It's actually more about Cameron's very considerable failure in obtaining any significantly improved terms from the EU in his so-called re-negotiations and worse still trying to convince the British electorate to believe the contrary, rounded off by a panic referendum to be held in June when he had originally set himself a timetable until the end of 2017, which would have provided sufficient time for a very much more considered and thorough approach towards our original objectives. In short Cameron has completely blown it and the British people aren't fools - they know they've been badly let down.
Angie's problems continue. CSU saying they have real issues with the Chancellors policies. Fortunately her socialist partners are being"helpful" by saying she's in team SPD. That should cheer up the right wingers.
Comments
Of course, many get around that by just claiming nearly all Remainers don't believe it they are just gutless, which I think is more insulting than necessary, and I'm a Leaver!
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/710598370440650754
It's actually more about Cameron's very considerable failure in obtaining any significantly improved terms from the EU in his so-called re-negotiations and worse still trying to convince the British electorate to believe the contrary, rounded off by a panic referendum to be held in June when he had originally set himself a timetable until the end of 2017, which would have provided sufficient time for a very much more considered and thorough approach towards our original objectives.
In short Cameron has completely blown it and the British people aren't fools - they know they've been badly let down.
One size fits all education has never been overwhelmingly popular either.
The only people on my timeline who are angry at this are old fashioned Northern lefities. The sort who would rail against the Tories for anything.
Vote for a LEAVE man right after the country votes REMAIN
Give us Gove and make the next election competitive
2) If it was EU related, polls would have moved 3 weeks ago, not just now.
3) Lab is more pro EU than Con - so EU dissatisfaction cannot explain Con to Lab shift
It's far more likely to be due to:
1) Con disunity
2) Corbyn less in news - less focus on Lab
3) Budget / economic concerns
4) Disability proposals making Con look like Nasty Party
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/710057214652899328
So no surprise that the Tories have slumped to 2011-12 levels again.
Blues knocking lumps off each other is all that is required.
Listening to Nicky Morgan on #bbcqt, sounds like government preparing for rapid U-turn on disability benefit cuts. Good news if true
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne
Nicky Morgan on PIP cuts in the Budget: “we are still engaged in a discussion” #bbcqt
Meantime Tories lose a council by election.
@britainelects: Liberal Democrat GAIN Aylsham (Broadland) from Conservative.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/group-rabbis-plan-boycott-trump-speech
Well they can't buy him...
California: Trump 38, Cruz 22, Kasich 20, Rubio 10
Enough to get Trump 120+ delegates and probably avoid a contested convention, depending on how Rubio's vote (plus undecideds) split.
And with a referendum that I'd like to see Remain win, the popcorn is going to stay locked in the kitchen cupboard a while longer yet.
Don't rule out the return of insufferably blue bullishness at some point later in the year, even if it turns out again to be short lived.
LD 829 Con 654 Lab 243
Short of reintroducing Grammar schools, Academies are an education policy I can support.
Whereas post Budget headlines suggest economic problems ahead.
Result: Public unhappy.
So polls move.
After tax credits, Google tax and Sunday Trading, Osborne now heading for retreat over PIP cuts. So many mistakes in so little time.
But that will not be a driver for Con to Lab movement in voting intention.
And another Council defeat for CON
@britainelects: Lincolnshire Independent GAIN Ashby de la Launde & Cranwell (North Kesteven) from CON
Not a good night for the Tories.
"Con disunity" was my first reason for the movement in the polls!!!
Well we shouldn't overreact to a couple of polls.
But - I recall saying that the tactic of taking the public for fools, and indeed publicly gloating about how you are doing just that, was very unwise.
Good night.
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Aylsham (Broadland) result:
LDEM: 48.0% (+17.1)
CON: 37.9% (+5.5)
LAB: 14.1% (-8.0)
Which side are you supporting this week? I find it hard to keep up with your flip-flopping.
According to Nicky Morgan the £4bn of savings in the Budget red book from disability benefit cuts are just "a suggestion" #bbcqt
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJ6NPDCbqPE
'Talking heads are bobbing up on cable TV to declare that if Trump is nominee, they will not vote for him and may vote for Clinton.
This is not unwelcome news. Let them go.
Their departure testifies that Trump is offering something new and different from the foreign policy failures this crowd did so much to produce.
The worst mistake Trump could make would be to tailor his winning positions on trade, immigration and intervention – to court such losers.'
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2016/03/suicide-of-gop-or-its-rebirth/#C0KWZspeTY7d61K1.99
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tory-zac-goldsmith-forced-out-7574364#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Emily Thornberry is right to worry about jobs if we leave the EU: the cost of one's domestic servants will go up, as Lord Rose confirmed
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35838564
If you're interested in the case for #Brexit, I set it out here (and consider the case for Remain, too) http://www.eu-facts.org.uk/2016/03/17/toby-young-why-ill-be-voting-leave-on-23-june/ … #bbcqt
Toby Young: Why I’ll be voting Leave on 23 June
http://www.eu-facts.org.uk/2016/03/17/toby-young-why-ill-be-voting-leave-on-23-june/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-17/google-is-said-to-put-boston-dynamics-robotics-unit-up-for-sale
Perhaps we are safe for a few more years from the bots taking all our jobs.
I wonder if by completing the academy conversion process, the government is actually wanting to go back to a more LEA style setup, just without the involvement of the Local Authorities. Essentially the council education departments will be privatised/mutualised becoming third-sector/private academy chains (plus back office services companies that will ultimately be absorbed into all those multinational, often French, service organisations). The ex-LEA academy chains are likely to be stronger than existing bottom up academy chains, potentially absorbing back in schools both inside and outside their parent LEAs. Watch out for those director pay and bonus, consultancy fees and mergers & acquistion stories. I also wonder if the relevant sections of LGOs and various other bodies with a finger in the education pie will be spun off more like the regulators for the utility industries and whether they will sit separately or as part of an expanded Ofsted.
GOP
Trump 31
Cruz 19
Kasich 10
Dems
Clinton 50
Sanders 24
I share your view that the Conservative disunity on Europe isn't really harming them. It may be helping them. At least it allows neither In nor Out supporters to conclude that their party is unequivocally at odds with their views. The leadership are In, the bulk of the membership Out. By contrast, by claiming that the EU is the best thing since sliced bread, Labour seems to be doing its damnedness to try and give the impression that it doesn't want the votes of all but the most committed Europhile, that is a small minority of the generally Eurosceptic electorate (including those hostile to the EU but reluctantly toying with an In vote as a least bad option).
New York, Emerson:
Trump 64
Cruz 12
Kasich 1
Hillary 71
Sanders 23
Trump would probably gain all 95 N.Y. delegates, that will erase most of his deficit from Ohio, Utah and N.Dakota.
Goodnight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FvCUbaf9z8&feature=youtu.be
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/fluechtlingskrise/verkehrsminister-dobrindt-zwischen-csu-und-cdu-ist-eine-ernste-situation-eingetreten-14131979.html