politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB in lead for first time since last May as the Tories pay

Dixie said:

bigjohnowls said:

Speedy said:

Spot the pattern:

ComRes
CON -3
LAB +2

ICM
CON -3
LAB +4

YouGov
CON -4
LAB +4

This is not a fluke.

Outliers

Not a fluke. Bleeding obvious. And it is Cameron's fault. He needs to shut up and back the blue side the the Liberal elite. Zac only has 10% chance. Cameron ha skilled him, perhaps deliberately. But Cameron likely to face leadership challenge for his dis-loyalty to the party.

MikeL said:

I think we're now at the stage where no benefits can be cut at all - in cash terms. .

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've not see so much interest in a poll since the YouGov poll during the Indyref that put Yes ahead.

Seems to me that the Tory party has fallen apart ever since Cameron brought back the dreadful "deal"

When historians look at British political history I suspect they will date the peak of Tory hubris to the day before the Deal, when all seemed sunlit uplands: Corbyn as the feeble joke enemy, the Scot Nats defeated, the Lib Dems humiliated, UKIP at bay, the EU referendum a shoo-in.

And now, here we are.

I expect the Tories to win in 2020 if Corbyn stays leader, but the Tories won't be this cocky again for a generation. Or more.

*cough*

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/10/15/antifrank-on-how-the-conservatives-will-lose-their-hegemony/

Tykejohnno said:

What a awful panel.

twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/710598370440650754

Tykejohnno said:

What a awful panel.

https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/710598370440650754

Alistair said:

I'm surprised the whole, remove all schools from local authory control thing, hasn't had more air time.

Tykejohnno said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Tykejohnno said:

What a awful panel.

twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/710598370440650754

It is pretty dire when Emily Thornberry is the best of the bunch.

And to think morgan thinks she PM material ;-)

peter_from_putney said:

The Tories dramatic loss of support isn't principally about the their being split ..... Labour is split too.
It's actually more about Cameron's very considerable failure in obtaining any significantly improved terms from the EU in his so-called re-negotiations and worse still trying to convince the British electorate to believe the contrary, rounded off by a panic referendum to be held in June when he had originally set himself a timetable until the end of 2017, which would have provided sufficient time for a very much more considered and thorough approach towards our original objectives.
In short Cameron has completely blown it and the British people aren't fools - they know they've been badly let down.

MikeL said:

peter_from_putney said:

The Tories dramatic loss of support isn't principally about the their being split ..... Labour is split too.
It's actually more about Cameron's very considerable failure in obtaining any significantly improved terms from the EU in his so-called re-negotiations and worse still trying to convince the British electorate to believe the contrary, rounded off by a panic referendum to be held in June when he had originally set himself a timetable until the end of 2017, which would have provided sufficient time for a very much more considered and thorough approach towards our original objectives.
In short Cameron has completely blown it and the British people aren't fools - they know they've been badly let down.

1) 90%+ of people won't have the faintest idea what Cameron got / didn't get from the EU.
2) If it was EU related, polls would have moved 3 weeks ago, not just now.
3) Lab is more pro EU than Con - so EU dissatisfaction cannot explain Con to Lab shift

glw said:

kle4 said:

That's the trouble of course - the budget might not actually be that bad, and the bits that are may well be reversed, but all that will be remembered is the initial reaction.

The omnishambles budget was like that as well. The Treasury seem to make a right balls up in a relatively minor change that overshadows the whole.

Tykejohnno said:

Ian Birrell ‏@ianbirrell
Listening to Nicky Morgan on #bbcqt, sounds like government preparing for rapid U-turn on disability benefit cuts. Good news if true

Sebastian Payne ‏@SebastianEPayne
Nicky Morgan on PIP cuts in the Budget: “we are still engaged in a discussion” #bbcqt

SeanT said:

MikeL said:

peter_from_putney said:

The Tories dramatic loss of support isn't principally about the their being split ..... Labour is split too.
It's actually more about Cameron's very considerable failure in obtaining any significantly improved terms from the EU in his so-called re-negotiations and worse still trying to convince the British electorate to believe the contrary, rounded off by a panic referendum to be held in June when he had originally set himself a timetable until the end of 2017, which would have provided sufficient time for a very much more considered and thorough approach towards our original objectives.
In short Cameron has completely blown it and the British people aren't fools - they know they've been badly let down.

1) 90%+ of people won't have the faintest idea what Cameron got / didn't get from the EU.
2) If it was EU related, polls would have moved 3 weeks ago, not just now.
3) Lab is more pro EU than Con - so EU dissatisfaction cannot explain Con to Lab shift

It's far more likely to be due to:

1) Con disunity
2) Corbyn less in news - less focus on Lab
3) Budget / economic concerns
4) Disability proposals making Con look like Nasty Party

People are smart enough to know Cameron got jackshit from Europe.

SeanT said:

MikeL said:

I suspect problem for Con is that the public thought the cuts were just about over and the economy was now broadly OK.

Whereas post Budget headlines suggest economic problems ahead.

Result: Public unhappy.

So polls move.

But the polls moved BEFORE the Budget. Duh. How many times does this have to be repeated.

The Budget didn't help, but the Tory splits on the EU began damaging HMG a couple of weeks ago.

MikeL said:

But that will not be a driver for Con to Lab movement in voting intention.

runnymede said:

But - I recall saying that the tactic of taking the public for fools, and indeed publicly gloating about how you are doing just that, was very unwise.

NickPalmer said:

Great series of polls - as Speedy illustrates, it does qualify as a trend rather than an outlier. A pro-EU concern, though: there is a traditional tendency for referenda to turn into votes for or against the government, especially among voters who don't care very much. If so, it's an awkward moment for Remain for the Tories to shoot themselves in both feet.

AndyJS said:

SouthamObserver said:

My first Question Time for a while. It is shockingly poor.

Panel or audience?

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

NickPalmer said:

Great series of polls - as Speedy illustrates, it does qualify as a trend rather than an outlier. A pro-EU concern, though: there is a traditional tendency for referenda to turn into votes for or against the government, especially among voters who don't care very much. If so, it's an awkward moment for Remain for the Tories to shoot themselves in both feet.

I think that it is clear that many Tories are for Leave, and even the Remain Tories are halfhearted at best. Voters wanting to kick the government will vote Remain.

uh, no they won't. Not when the Tory PM and the Tory Chancellor are the lead figures for REMAIN

What a silly remark.

runnymede said:

Osborne really has turned out to be the most objectionable little sh**, hasn't he? He almost seems to be trying to live up to his own caricature.

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

Great series of polls - as Speedy illustrates, it does qualify as a trend rather than an outlier. A pro-EU concern, though: there is a traditional tendency for referenda to turn into votes for or against the government, especially among voters who don't care very much. If so, it's an awkward moment for Remain for the Tories to shoot themselves in both feet.

Yes. I see these as BAD polls for REMAIN. The more unpopular Cameron and the Tories become, the more likely voters will ether tick LEAVE to piss off the government or simply abstain and enjoy Tory infighting.

A double edged sword for lefty europhiles, like yourself. I can easily see this vote being won by LEAVE, because of Labourite apathy - as you have often pointed out.

Leave benefits Corbyn rather than Cameron, Corbyn voted against the EEC in 1975 anyway and a Leave vote gets rid of Cameron the Tories' best electoral asset

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

Great series of polls - as Speedy illustrates, it does qualify as a trend rather than an outlier. A pro-EU concern, though: there is a traditional tendency for referenda to turn into votes for or against the government, especially among voters who don't care very much. If so, it's an awkward moment for Remain for the Tories to shoot themselves in both feet.

Yes. I see these as BAD polls for REMAIN. The more unpopular Cameron and the Tories become, the more likely voters will ether tick LEAVE to piss off the government or simply abstain and enjoy Tory infighting.

A double edged sword for lefty europhiles, like yourself. I can easily see this vote being won by LEAVE, because of Labourite apathy - as you have often pointed out.

Leave benefits Corbyn rather than Cameron, Corbyn voted against the EEC in 1975 anyway and a Leave vote gets rid of Cameron the Tories' best electoral asset

Be a good idea to get rid of Corbyn at the same time

hunchman said:

Well I've been warning the Tories on here about just how complacent and arrogant they have become to believe that any one of them can beat Corbyn in 2020, and lo and behold they find themselves behind for the first time in this parliament. I have cautioned that absolutely nothing is impossible politically over the next 4 years once the sovereign debt crisis gets into full swing. Trump is showing that anything is possible in this climate in the US right now. Nobody should be so complacent as to believe that there is zero chance of Corbyn ever becoming PM. Under a normal economic climate that would be true, but this isn't normal and the level of public anger and outrage with establishment politics around the world now is such that people like Corbyn and Trump and Marine Le Pen could get into power on the back of this seething swell of anger all around us.

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

Great series of polls - as Speedy illustrates, it does qualify as a trend rather than an outlier. A pro-EU concern, though: there is a traditional tendency for referenda to turn into votes for or against the government, especially among voters who don't care very much. If so, it's an awkward moment for Remain for the Tories to shoot themselves in both feet.

Yes. I see these as BAD polls for REMAIN. The more unpopular Cameron and the Tories become, the more likely voters will ether tick LEAVE to piss off the government or simply abstain and enjoy Tory infighting.

A double edged sword for lefty europhiles, like yourself. I can easily see this vote being won by LEAVE, because of Labourite apathy - as you have often pointed out.

Leave benefits Corbyn rather than Cameron, Corbyn voted against the EEC in 1975 anyway and a Leave vote gets rid of Cameron the Tories' best electoral asset

Be a good idea to get rid of Corbyn at the same time

Corbyn is about as anti EU a leader as Labour are going to get, as I said a Leave vote boosts Corbyn

justin124 said:

It rather looks as if ICM were far too quick to rubbish their own poll!

justin124 said:

It is now very reasonable to say that Labour is performing a fair bit better than at the same stage of the 1987 and 1959 Parliaments. I refer to party lead rather than % vote share because national support has become much more fragmented over the last 20 years or so.

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

It is now very reasonable to say that Labour is performing a fair bit better than at the same stage of the 1987 and 1959 Parliaments. I refer to party lead rather than % vote share because national support has become much more fragmented over the last 20 years or so.

Labour won a majority in 1964 and by 1990 were on 50% plus, so Corbyn has a way to go to match that yet

My comparison is with how Labour was faring in April 1988 and August 1960.

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Oh dear. Osborne made me leave the Tory party in 2012 and he's now given Labour supporters who actually care about elections their first happy time in yonks. Shame that they don't have a team who could capitalise on that. Real shame.

Second boy arrived yesterday, by the way. Home and well so all good!

peter_from_putney said:

The Tories dramatic loss of support isn't principally about their being split ..... Labour is split too.
It's actually more about Cameron's very considerable failure in obtaining any significantly improved terms from the EU in his so-called re-negotiations and worse still trying to convince the British electorate to believe the contrary, rounded off by a panic referendum to be held in June when he had originally set himself a timetable until the end of 2017, which would have provided sufficient time for a very much more considered and thorough approach towards our original objectives.
In short Cameron has completely blown it and the British people aren't fools - they know they've been badly let down.

Danny565 said:

I can only assume Osborne is on a mission to make Ed Miliband look normal and socially-competent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FvCUbaf9z8&feature=youtu.be