politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Holyrood 2016: the SNP’s hegemony continues

OllyT said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Pulpstar said:

The big loser from tonight won't be Trump though.

It's Ruby OH

I disagree, Rubio lost the nomination in N.H., he didn't lose a bigger prize afterwards.
Tonight Trump probably loses the nomination, so he is the big loser.

No he probably does not, especially if he wins the Michigan, Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida primaries over the next fortnight, all that has happened is Cruz has confirmed his position as Trump's main opponent

If Trump loses all those states tonight to Cruz and at similar numbers it will be a very bad sign for Trump.

We will see, so far the signs are not good.

They are all caucuses, in terms of delegates they make very little difference, over the next forthnight 5/10 of the largest states in the USA will vote, if Trump wins all of them and adds them to his win in Georgia he will have won 6/10 of the largest US states and will be nominee designate, sealing the deal by winning New York and Pennsylvania at the end of April. Even if Cruz wins every state tonight not one is a big state, he has to win some of the big states over the next two weeks to really be a potential nominee

We really need to see the only real primary tonight in Louisiana - if Cruz does outperform the polls there and wins today's caucuses then he will have some momentum. The odds are still on Trump but, as I said yesterday, there may yet be a sting in the tail!

Cruz is clearly getting some momentum tonight yes but he needs to win in Louisiana to get a really significant boost (the fact it is a closed primary could help him a little)

NickPalmer said:

flightpath01 said:

NickPalmer said:

Speedy may be overstrating it, but these are going to be reported as big momentum wins for Cruz.

The next best media story after Trump winning is Trump losing. Indeed it may be a better one. So it will be played big.

Exactly.

Until Trump wins Michigan on Tuesday, then Florida, Illinois, Ohio and N Carolina the following week

But then, outside the EU/EEA we could set up chip fabs here... build our own nuclear power plants... restart ship building by making cruise liners. I don't see anything we need from the EU that we can't make here as we used to do.

Mr. L, thanks for the recommendation. Unfortunately, I'm in the middle of two large books and have others I want to get read (and spending a lot of time writing means I read less quickly than I used to).

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

OllyT said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Pulpstar said:

The big loser from tonight won't be Trump though.

It's Ruby OH

I disagree, Rubio lost the nomination in N.H., he didn't lose a bigger prize afterwards.
Tonight Trump probably loses the nomination, so he is the big loser.

No he probably does not, especially if he wins the Michigan, Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida primaries over the next fortnight, all that has happened is Cruz has confirmed his position as Trump's main opponent

If Trump loses all those states tonight to Cruz and at similar numbers it will be a very bad sign for Trump.

We will see, so far the signs are not good.

They are all caucuses, in terms of delegates they make very little difference, over the next forthnight 5/10 of the largest states in the USA will vote, if Trump wins all of them and adds them to his win in Georgia he will have won 6/10 of the largest US states and will be nominee designate, sealing the deal by winning New York and Pennsylvania at the end of April. Even if Cruz wins every state tonight not one is a big state, he has to win some of the big states over the next two weeks to really be a potential nominee

We really need to see the only real primary tonight in Louisiana - if Cruz does outperform the polls there and wins today's caucuses then he will have some momentum. The odds are still on Trump but, as I said yesterday, there may yet be a sting in the tail!

Cruz is clearly getting some momentum tonight yes but he needs to win in Louisiana to get a really significant boost (the fact it is a closed primary could help him a little)

Kentucky is important too.

Kentucky is a caucus not a primary like Louisiana

flightpath01 said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

JackW said:

DavidL said:

CNN reporting in Kansas that republican turnout up from about 4500 last time to over 13K in Wichita.

Love him or hate him Trump is energising the republicans in a way that must scare the Democrats witless.

Don't place too much emphasis on nomination turnout. In 88 and 92 the Dems whacked the GOP only for Reagan and Bush to win landslides.

Yeah but the democrats usually turn out in much larger numbers. It may be that the Democrat race is a forgone conclusion but they are getting whacked this time. When you have a lead candidate who struggles to inspire I think this is a concern.

Clinton might have lost to Rubio or Kasich, she should thank her lucky stars her opponent will be Trump or Cruz! In the same way in 1968 Nixon would have lost to Bobby Kennedy as he lost to JFK in 1960 but he was able to beat Humphrey and then McGovern in 1972

The significant point is that the Democrats picked McGovern in 72. Eg a natural born loser. Why? Because it made them feel warm cosy and satisfied.
Dangerous thing to throw out a winner on a whim.

If the GOP follows the same pattern it will be Cruz 2020 then! Mind you given McGovern's main opponents were Humphrey, the 1968 loser, Muskie, Humphrey's VP nominee (who was hit by a number of rumours in the campaign) and George Wallace there were not exactly a great deal of winners in the field

Mr. Roger, Tories rallying round a leader?! Howard was a stopgap, IDS was tossed overboard, Thatcher was axed, Major jumped before he could be pushed. The Conservative leadership process appears modelled on the Ancient Macedonian monarchy.

Cruz ahead 2-1 in Kansas with 24% reporting - looks solid. But zero official results from Maine yet.

PAW said:

But then, outside the EU/EEA we could set up chip fabs here... build our own nuclear power plants... restart ship building by making cruise liners. I don't see anything we need from the EU that we can't make here as we used to do.

But the world has moved on. We can't turn the clock back to what we "used to do". We are in the 2010s not the 1950s.

Roger said:

Many of us not of the faith had a sneaking regard for the way Tories would always rally round their leader. Even the seriously dislikable which Cameron certainly isn't.

These last weeks have been something of an eye opener. Poor old Steve Hilton gave his all to remove the taint of the 'nasty party' and he almost succeeded. I wonder how long it'll take to get rid of the mark 2 version?

I have a huge amount of respect (and time) for Steve Hilton.

He's a Brexiter. His strategy was for Cameron to spend his first term walking out of EU summits looking hugely frustrated at their intractability towards reform.

He'd then call a referendum in his second term and recommend a Leave vote.

If we have the chip designers - and we do with ARM and Imagination and Wolfson - why not have a fab?

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/706235074090504192

NickPalmer said:

Cruz ahead 2-1 in Kansas with 24% reporting - looks solid. But zero official results from Maine yet.

Looking at how his fellow evangelicals Huckerbee and Santorum did in Kansas in 2008 and 2012 respectively, then Cruz has actually underperformed in Kansas.

Jeremy Diamond ✔ ‎@JDiamond1
A protester with a fake penis attached to his baseball cap was just ejected from @realDonaldTrump's Orlando rally. That is all.

peter_from_putney said:

Wow .....Donald Trump slumps to 1.67 with Betfair for the GOP nomination!

The great news (For me) is it's all heading to Cruz

MonikerDiCanio said:

NickPalmer said:

Cruz ahead 2-1 in Kansas with 24% reporting - looks solid. But zero official results from Maine yet.

Looking at how his fellow evangelicals Huckerbee and Santorum did in Kansas in 2008 and 2012 respectively, then Cruz has actually underperformed in Kansas.

Cruz was probably favourite in Kansas (though a complete landslide probably wasn't expected), but Maine is shaping up to be the real WTF result.

anothernick said:

PAW said:

But then, outside the EU/EEA we could set up chip fabs here... build our own nuclear power plants... restart ship building by making cruise liners. I don't see anything we need from the EU that we can't make here as we used to do.

But the world has moved on. We can't turn the clock back to what we "used to do". We are in the 2010s not the 1950s.

The Treaty of Rome dates from the 1950s...

Casino_Royale said:

anothernick said:

PAW said:

But then, outside the EU/EEA we could set up chip fabs here... build our own nuclear power plants... restart ship building by making cruise liners. I don't see anything we need from the EU that we can't make here as we used to do.

But the world has moved on. We can't turn the clock back to what we "used to do". We are in the 2010s not the 1950s.

It is not written in stone anywhere that the EU is The Future.

That's up to us.

Nothing is forever. One day the EU will be no more.

Danny565 said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

NickPalmer said:

Cruz ahead 2-1 in Kansas with 24% reporting - looks solid. But zero official results from Maine yet.

Looking at how his fellow evangelicals Huckerbee and Santorum did in Kansas in 2008 and 2012 respectively, then Cruz has actually underperformed in Kansas.

Cruz was probably favourite in Kansas (though a complete landslide probably wasn't expected), but Maine is shaping up to be the real WTF result.

Maine Republicans are pretty right wing. Its a very rural place.

Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
There's nothing civil about the Tory war on Europe tonight. Boris Johnson has accused Downing Street of getting John Longworth axed

If officials from No 10 were in anyway involved in a man getting suspended for his job for supporting Brexit, thats appalling.

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Danny565 said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

NickPalmer said:

Cruz ahead 2-1 in Kansas with 24% reporting - looks solid. But zero official results from Maine yet.

Looking at how his fellow evangelicals Huckerbee and Santorum did in Kansas in 2008 and 2012 respectively, then Cruz has actually underperformed in Kansas.

Cruz was probably favourite in Kansas (though a complete landslide probably wasn't expected), but Maine is shaping up to be the real WTF result.

Maine Republicans are pretty right wing. Its a very rural place.

Is it much more rural/right-wing than Vermont?

Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
Michael Gove has given his first print Brexit interview to the Sunday Times. Warns that the EU is fuelling both terrorism and fascism

Danny565 said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Danny565 said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

NickPalmer said:

Cruz ahead 2-1 in Kansas with 24% reporting - looks solid. But zero official results from Maine yet.

Looking at how his fellow evangelicals Huckerbee and Santorum did in Kansas in 2008 and 2012 respectively, then Cruz has actually underperformed in Kansas.

Cruz was probably favourite in Kansas (though a complete landslide probably wasn't expected), but Maine is shaping up to be the real WTF result.

Maine Republicans are pretty right wing. Its a very rural place.

Is it much more rural/right-wing than Vermont?

Vermont is probably Greener .... Oi, it's the way I tell 'em.

NorfolkTilIDie said:

If officials from No 10 were in anyway involved in a man getting suspended for his job for supporting Brexit, thats appalling.

This is a campaign that Cameron cannot afford to lose. His place in history is at stake.

There will be casualties.

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

JackW said:

DavidL said:

CNN reporting in Kansas that republican turnout up from about 4500 last time to over 13K in Wichita.

Love him or hate him Trump is energising the republicans in a way that must scare the Democrats witless.

Don't place too much emphasis on nomination turnout. In 88 and 92 the Dems whacked the GOP only for Reagan and Bush to win landslides.

Yeah but the democrats usually turn out in much larger numbers. It may be that the Democrat race is a forgone conclusion but they are getting whacked this time. When you have a lead candidate who struggles to inspire I think this is a concern.

Clinton might have lost to Rubio or Kasich, she should thank her lucky stars her opponent will be Trump or Cruz! In the same way in 1968 Nixon would have lost to Bobby Kennedy as he lost to JFK in 1960 but he was able to beat Humphrey and then McGovern in 1972

I always found Bobby Kennedy the most interesting American politician of the 60s and his murder was a tragedy. Kasich is someone I could easily imagine voting for. Cruz not in a million years. Trump...probably not but it would depend on his opponent.

Yes but for his untimely death Bobby Kennedy would have almost certainly become president, not Nixon. I expect your sentiment on the candidates will be shared, in the end, by the average American swing voter

I suspect Humphrey would have ended up the Democratic nominee anyway in 1968.

Hard to tell, Humphrey only won at the convention, after Bobby Kennedy won California (the night he was assassinated) he would have had real momentum

Strong words:

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/706240846128156672

Tykejohnno said:

Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
Gove warns the EU has boosted "Hitler worshippers" and says the far right is stronger than at any time since the 1930s because of EU

It is, of course, impossible to prove the counterfactual.

However, globalisation and non-European migration are probably much more to blame.

Casino_Royale said:

Strong words:

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/706240846128156672

Is this Gove character actually a Government Minister ? Astonishing .

nigel4england said:

anothernick said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

If officials from No 10 were in anyway involved in a man getting suspended for his job for supporting Brexit, thats appalling.

This is a campaign that Cameron cannot afford to lose. His place in history is at stake.

There will be casualties.

Cameron loses either way.

No - it's his party that will lose. He will win - he will retire as the man who kept the UK and the EU intact - two of the most successful supranational entities the world has ever seen.

His mypoic party will be left to [ick up the pievces.

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

JackW said:

DavidL said:

CNN reporting in Kansas that republican turnout up from about 4500 last time to over 13K in Wichita.

Love him or hate him Trump is energising the republicans in a way that must scare the Democrats witless.

Don't place too much emphasis on nomination turnout. In 88 and 92 the Dems whacked the GOP only for Reagan and Bush to win landslides.

Yeah but the democrats usually turn out in much larger numbers. It may be that the Democrat race is a forgone conclusion but they are getting whacked this time. When you have a lead candidate who struggles to inspire I think this is a concern.

Clinton might have lost to Rubio or Kasich, she should thank her lucky stars her opponent will be Trump or Cruz! In the same way in 1968 Nixon would have lost to Bobby Kennedy as he lost to JFK in 1960 but he was able to beat Humphrey and then McGovern in 1972

I always found Bobby Kennedy the most interesting American politician of the 60s and his murder was a tragedy. Kasich is someone I could easily imagine voting for. Cruz not in a million years. Trump...probably not but it would depend on his opponent.

Yes but for his untimely death Bobby Kennedy would have almost certainly become president, not Nixon. I expect your sentiment on the candidates will be shared, in the end, by the average American swing voter

I suspect Humphrey would have ended up the Democratic nominee anyway in 1968.

Hard to tell, Humphrey only won at the convention, after Bobby Kennedy won California (the night he was assassinated) he would have had real momentum

As I read it Humphrey was not even contesting the primaries but he still went on to win the nomination. Plenty anti RFK opinions about.

AlastairMeeks said:

Well it all seems a long time since I was told by the Conservative supporters on site that the referendum would be conducted in a spirit of amity.

Yes. Apparently it will be conducted amicably and without hyperbole.

More popcorn at the back please...

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Project Fear now being used by leave with Gove accusing the EU of the rise in fascism, Boris accusing No 10 of colluding with BCC to get Longworth sacked, and the Sunday Express stating that our borders agency will be taken over by the EU in a full on attack on our sovereignty. All this will achieve is the polarisation of those already committed to either side and those of us undecided just despairing and switching off. The whole campaign so far is just off the scale of stupity

The simple, positive message that the Sunil on Sundays prefers is as follows:

Believe in BRITAIN!

Be LEAVE!

anothernick said:

nigel4england said:

anothernick said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

If officials from No 10 were in anyway involved in a man getting suspended for his job for supporting Brexit, thats appalling.

This is a campaign that Cameron cannot afford to lose. His place in history is at stake.

There will be casualties.

Cameron loses either way.

No - it's his party that will lose. He will win - he will retire as the man who kept the UK and the EU intact - two of the most successful supranational entities the world has ever seen.

His mypoic party will be left to [ick up the pievces.

If the EU is so successful, how come we don't use their currency?

viewcode said:

Tykejohnno said:

Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
There's nothing civil about the Tory war on Europe tonight. Boris Johnson has accused Downing Street of getting John Longworth axed

Is Boris capable of distinguishing between fact and fiction?

No facts have gone out of the window since he came out for Leave same as they have done for Gove .

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Project Fear now being used by leave with Gove accusing the EU of the rise in fascism, Boris accusing No 10 of colluding with BCC to get Longworth sacked, and the Sunday Express stating that our borders agency will be taken over by the EU in a full on attack on our sovereignty. All this will achieve is the polarisation of those already committed to either side and those of us undecided just despairing and switching off. The whole campaign so far is just off the scale of stupity

The simple, positive message that the Sunil on Sundays prefers is as follows:

Believe in BRITAIN!

Be LEAVE!

I absolutely believe n Britain but I have not been persuaded by either side

flightpath01 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

JackW said:

DavidL said:

CNN reporting in Kansas that republican turnout up from about 4500 last time to over 13K in Wichita.

Love him or hate him Trump is energising the republicans in a way that must scare the Democrats witless.

Don't place too much emphasis on nomination turnout. In 88 and 92 the Dems whacked the GOP only for Reagan and Bush to win landslides.

Yeah but the democrats usually turn out in much larger numbers. It may be that the Democrat race is a forgone conclusion but they are getting whacked this time. When you have a lead candidate who struggles to inspire I think this is a concern.

Clinton might have lost to Rubio or Kasich, she shoul1972

I always found Bobby Kennedy the most interestin.

Yes but for his untimely death Bobby Kennedy would have almost certainly become president, not Nixon. I expect your sentiment on the candidates will be shared, in the end, by the average American swing voter

I suspect Humphrey would have ended up the Democratic nominee anyway in 1968.

Hard to tell, Humphrey only won at the convention, after Bobby Kennedy won California (the night he was assassinated) he would have had real momentum

As I read it Humphrey was not even contesting the primaries but he still went on to win the nomination. Plenty anti RFK opinions about.

'Some historians, such as Theodore H. White and Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., have argued that Kennedy's broad appeal and famed charisma would have convinced the party bosses at the Democratic Convention to give him the nomination. Jack Newfield, author of RFK: A Memoir, stated in a 1998 interview that on the night he was assassinated, "[Kennedy] had a phone conversation with Mayor Daley of Chicago, and Mayor Daley all but promised to throw the Illinois delegates to Bobby at the convention in August 1968. I think he said to me, and Pete Hamill, 'Daley is the ball game, and I think we have Daley.'" However, other writers such as Tom Wicker, who covered the Kennedy campaign for The New York Times, believe that Humphrey's large lead in delegate votes from non-primary states, combined with Senator McCarthy's refusal to quit the race, would have prevented Kennedy from ever winning a majority at the Democratic Convention, and that Humphrey would have been the Democratic nominee even if Kennedy had lived.'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1968

MonikerDiCanio said:

viewcode said:

Tykejohnno said:

Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
There's nothing civil about the Tory war on Europe tonight. Boris Johnson has accused Downing Street of getting John Longworth axed

For the avoidance of doubt, the total involvement of Cameron/No10 in the suspension of John Longworth is exactly zero.

Is Boris capable of distinguishing between fact and fiction?

Are you Dave Cameron?

No. I am not Dave Cameron.

anothernick said:

nigel4england said:

anothernick said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

If officials from No 10 were in anyway involved in a man getting suspended for his job for supporting Brexit, thats appalling.

This is a campaign that Cameron cannot afford to lose. His place in history is at stake.

There will be casualties.

Cameron loses either way.

No - it's his party that will lose. He will win - he will retire as the man who kept the UK and the EU intact - two of the most successful supranational entities the world has ever seen.

His mypoic party will be left to [ick up the pievces.

You are right if the scenario unfolds that way.
The fact that N4E concentrates on Cameron's future explains the crummy motivation by the numpty wing of the Tories. When you look at the fact that the main opposition to the referendum comes from crass Farage and his BNPlite and revengers on the dumbassed Tory wing then you do have to think Remain ought to win.

AlastairMeeks said:

Well it all seems a long time since I was told by the Conservative supporters on site that the referendum would be conducted in a spirit of amity.

The naivety of some Tories about this whole process has been quite extraordinary.

Some of them apparently believed that Cameron was genuinely undecided about whether the UK should remain in the EU.

Others seemed to be under the impression that the referendum campaign would be some kind of village cricket match in which playing fair was more important than winning.

Unbelievable.

Kansas called for Cruz.

CNN claiming that Cruz's "internal polls" showed a shift away from Trump after Thursday's debate.