if we leave we will almost certainly end up with a trade deal that makes not a jot of difference to free movement.
That's simplistic. Not a jot?
Sure, a new deal would accept free movement. But that doesn't mean there won't be room for movement on some issues. For example, it is unlikely we would have to take a begging bowl round Europe in order to adjust benefits for migrants. We'd also likely have freedom to impose restrictions on new incomers without work. Non-workers accounted for about a third of EU immigration last year.
Brexit will allow free movement to be restored for what it was always meant to be - free movement for workers.
Of course when (doesn't look like if at the moment) Trump loses to Cruz tonight in most states, the question will arise as to why that happened.
I think Trump made a big mistake going on the Fox debate and also making a big mistake pitching to a GE audience before the primaries were over.
Softening on immigration and saying the word "flexible" all the time and "changing my position" on top of the Fox videos and attacks that Trump is an impostor, all that in 2 hours in front of national TV was probably what did it.
The key is Louisiana, which is a primary and had multiple polls last week showing a clear Trump lead, if he loses there it really will be the debate which did it and he will be in serious trouble. If he wins there but loses the other 3 Trump can explain Cruz's wins away as they are all caucuses where Cruz does better, Cruz will have done enough to keep the contest going for another month or two but Trump will still win in the end
Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
Blimey, seems like 45% of voters are nutjobs.
It was clearly absurd to vote Labour at the general election, but many did.
Why not try engaging with critics of the EU, rather than just calling them names?
You mean engage in debate with the pro Leavers on here who trot out the word liar in every post they make on here .
There are plenty of Leave supporters here who don't call their opponents liars, a fact you are well aware of.
Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
Steven Whaley left the website yesterday because of how rude and brash some people were being. Why don't you make your arguments without being rude??
Bone - Galloway. Galloway - Bone. Davis Farage. All on the same platform if you include the cloud of dust Davis left behind. How polite do you want me to be?
Of course when (doesn't look like if at the moment) Trump loses to Cruz tonight in most states, the question will arise as to why that happened.
I think Trump made a big mistake going on the Fox debate and also making a big mistake pitching to a GE audience before the primaries were over.
Softening on immigration and saying the word "flexible" all the time and "changing my position" on top of the Fox videos and attacks that Trump is an impostor, all that in 2 hours in front of national TV was probably what did it.
The key is Louisiana, which is a primary and had multiple polls last week showing a clear Trump lead, if he loses there it really will be the debate which did it and he will be in serious trouble. If he wins there but loses the other 3 Trump can explain Cruz's wins away as they are all caucuses where Cruz does better, Cruz will have done enough to keep the contest going for another month or two but Trump will still win in the end
If Cruz wins 3 out of 4 tonight, the momentum will be with Cruz, even splitting it 2-2 will be enough for Cruz to claim a big victory, everyone will go around Cruz and he becomes the nominee not Trump. Kentucky and Maine are critical, and it seems Trump has lost Maine at the moment.
Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
Leavers often sound like true believers reciting articles of faith - "govern ourselves" "throw off the bureaucracy" "independence day" and even "come into the light" .
This hardly amounts to a practical and coherent vision of the future.
But, it's more attractive than the defeatism that comes from their opponents.
"Defeatism" - interesting way of looking at it. Are we in some kind of war with other EU countries which we will somehow "win" if we leave?
We won't win overnight but strategic retreat from the current battlefield will see us overcome our EU enemies eventually, yes.
Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
Leavers often sound like true believers reciting articles of faith - "govern ourselves" "throw off the bureaucracy" "independence day" and even "come into the light" .
This hardly amounts to a practical and coherent vision of the future.
But, it's more attractive than the defeatism that comes from their opponents.
"Defeatism" - interesting way of looking at it. Are we in some kind of war with other EU countries which we will somehow "win" if we leave?
The defeatism lies with predicting horrors if we leave the EU.
Oh - well there will be a lot more of that.
I'm a remainer of course, but I do genuinely believe that the UK leaving the EU would probably be the most serious error that any major Western country has made since 1945 - it could easily unleash ugly nationalistic forces both here and in continental Europe that might well lead to the breakup of the EU altogether. That would mean renewed Russian domination of Eastern Europe
Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
Blimey, seems like 45% of voters are nutjobs.
It was clearly absurd to vote Labour at the general election, but many did.
Why not try engaging with critics of the EU, rather than just calling them names?
I am a critic of the EU. I would not be too fussed about an Area/EFTA - EU arrangement like Norway's. But I know it would be little different to now. Manic Leavers are majoring on an immigration project fear so need to turn against the EEA exit door. But that is an even bigger leap into the dark for our economy. And this difference is why leave cannot tell us where they want to leave to and have only an airy fairy way to get there anyway.
The plain fact is emerging as I said that for many on the right it is an issue not of the EU but of s desire to take over the Tory party despite it successfully recovering its centrist mainstream position.
And as far as I can see the name calling is coming from Leavers and their target in personalising this referendum is Cameron.
So far as I can tell, there are plenty of people here who, hitherto, have had a lot of respect for Cameron, but are very unhappy with the weak deal he has come back with. David L, Charles, Marquee Mark, Plato, Kle, etc. And, they are matched by lots of centrist Conservatives, like Gove, Wollaston, Leadsom, Zahawi, Fernandes, Blackman, Fuller, Nigel Evans, Ghani, Mordaunt, Dinenage, etc. Unhappiness with the status quo runs way beyond UKIP and the Conservative Right.
Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
Leavers often sound like true believers reciting articles of faith - "govern ourselves" "throw off the bureaucracy" "independence day" and even "come into the light" .
This hardly amounts to a practical and coherent vision of the future.
But, it's more attractive than the defeatism that comes from their opponents.
"Defeatism" - interesting way of looking at it. Are we in some kind of war with other EU countries which we will somehow "win" if we leave?
The defeatism lies with predicting horrors if we leave the EU.
Oh - well there will be a lot more of that.
I'm a remainer of course, but I do genuinely believe that the UK leaving the EU would probably be the most serious error that any major Western country has made since 1945 - it could easily unleash ugly nationalistic forces both here and in continental Europe that might well lead to the breakup of the EU altogether. That would mean renewed Russian domination of Eastern Europe
Sorry - posted too soon
...and a trade war between countries now in the EU.
Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
Leavers often sound like true believers reciting articles of faith - "govern ourselves" "throw off the bureaucracy" "independence day" and even "come into the light" .
This hardly amounts to a practical and coherent vision of the future.
But, it's more attractive than the defeatism that comes from their opponents.
"Defeatism" - interesting way of looking at it. Are we in some kind of war with other EU countries which we will somehow "win" if we leave?
The defeatism lies with predicting horrors if we leave the EU.
Oh - well there will be a lot more of that.
I'm a remainer of course, but I do genuinely believe that the UK leaving the EU would probably be the most serious error that any major Western country has made since 1945 - it could easily unleash ugly nationalistic forces both here and in continental Europe that might well lead to the breakup of the EU altogether. That would mean renewed Russian domination of Eastern Europe
at sone point we will team up with an authoritrarian Russia, We always have,
Of course when (doesn't look like if at the moment) Trump loses to Cruz tonight in most states, the question will arise as to why that happened.
I think Trump made a big mistake going on the Fox debate and also making a big mistake pitching to a GE audience before the primaries were over.
Softening on immigration and saying the word "flexible" all the time and "changing my position" on top of the Fox videos and attacks that Trump is an impostor, all that in 2 hours in front of national TV was probably what did it.
The key is Louisiana, which is a primary and had multiple polls last week showing a clear Trump lead, if he loses there it really will be the debate which did it and he will be in serious trouble. If he wins there but loses the other 3 Trump can explain Cruz's wins away as they are all caucuses where Cruz does better, Cruz will have done enough to keep the contest going for another month or two but Trump will still win in the end
If Cruz wins 3 out of 4 tonight, the momentum will be with Cruz, even splitting it 2-2 will be enough for Cruz to claim a big victory, everyone will go around Cruz and he becomes the nominee not Trump. Kentucky and Maine are critical, and it seems Trump has lost Maine at the moment.
Rubbish, he will have as much momentum as Santorum did when he beat Romney in a few caucuses. The key is Louisiana which was the most polled and is a primary, that gives the clearest picture, the other 3 are all caucuses which favour Cruz
Of course when (doesn't look like if at the moment) Trump loses to Cruz tonight in most states, the question will arise as to why that happened.
I think Trump made a big mistake going on the Fox debate and also making a big mistake pitching to a GE audience before the primaries were over.
Softening on immigration and saying the word "flexible" all the time and "changing my position" on top of the Fox videos and attacks that Trump is an impostor, all that in 2 hours in front of national TV was probably what did it.
The key is Louisiana, which is a primary and had multiple polls last week showing a clear Trump lead, if he loses there it really will be the debate which did it and he will be in serious trouble. If he wins there but loses the other 3 Trump can explain Cruz's wins away as they are all caucuses where Cruz does better, Cruz will have done enough to keep the contest going for another month or two but Trump will still win in the end
If Cruz wins 3 out of 4 tonight, the momentum will be with Cruz, even splitting it 2-2 will be enough for Cruz to claim a big victory, everyone will go around Cruz and he becomes the nominee not Trump. Kentucky and Maine are critical, and it seems Trump has lost Maine at the moment.
Rubbish, he will have as much momentum as Santorum did when he beat Romney in a few caucuses. The key is Louisiana which was the most polled and is a primary, that gives the clearest picture, the other 3 are all caucuses which favour Cruz
Right now the results in Kansas and Maine look very similar, Rubio collapsed, Trump damaged ,and Cruz reaping all the rewards.
If Trump has 30, Cruz 50, Rubio and kasich get 10 each, how does Trump win from now on ?
I particularly enjoyed the nonsense about the allegedly 'true' immigration figures, which the nutjobs think he is deliberately concealing because of the referendum. No-one seems to ask what conceivable relevance illegal immigration has to the question of whether the UK should stay in the EU or not.
That load of utter tosh is beneath even your level of asskissery. The vast majority of the public think that getting out of the EU will solve the immigration problem. They may be wrong in the short term if Cameron is suicidal enough to try going the EEA route in the teeth of a Leave vote on the basis of controlling immigration, if the government goes full kipper it will definitely reduce immigration. Whether they are right or wrong at this stage is beside the point, if the new immigration figures are much higher than last year, it will increase the turn out for Leave voters, the last thing the PM wants. I know this, you know this, Uncle Tom Cobley could have a fair guess at this, so please don't insult our intelligence.
Tosh? What has illegal immigration got to do with the EU. What about the legal non EU immigration figures? Are Leave united around not even joining the EEA/EFTA? Can Leave actually tell us what they want us to vote for please? Certainly you had better tell the people of Sunderland and all the workers dependant on the Nissan factory. Renault/Nissan are already building a direct rival to the Sunderland built Nissan/Renault Qashqai... the Kadjar - built in Spain and it's typically £2000 cheaper.
Are Nissan closing the Sunderland plant then?
Meantime nobody has warned Honda the world will fall in if we leave:
Renault-Nissan will have to make investment decisions in future. So will Indian owned JLR. And of course BMW and Honda and Toyota. And GM. Ford. Even VW/ Bentley. The motor industry has been an amazing success story for the UK, fabulous with valuable production capacity, but research and investment budgets are huge and over the long term can be changed. Minis are built in The Netherlands. Jaguars and Land Rover's are built in India. Generally we have done well out of inward investment to the EU. It's seems to me to be a wise move to keep it that way. We know now that the EU is not going to be a single currency area, we have this special status which to me seems better than the EEA. I am not for exiting the single market and Leavers who want to are peddling snake oil.
Let Leave stand 4 squre behind a Norway style EEA EFTA position. Why can't it.
Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
Leavers often sound like true believers reciting articles of faith - "govern ourselves" "throw off the bureaucracy" "independence day" and even "come into the light" .
This hardly amounts to a practical and coherent vision of the future.
But, it's more attractive than the defeatism that comes from their opponents.
"Defeatism" - interesting way of looking at it. Are we in some kind of war with other EU countries which we will somehow "win" if we leave?
The defeatism lies with predicting horrors if we leave the EU.
Oh - well there will be a lot more of that.
I'm a remainer of course, but I do genuinely believe that the UK leaving the EU would probably be the most serious error that any major Western country has made since 1945 - it could easily unleash ugly nationalistic forces both here and in continental Europe that might well lead to the breakup of the EU altogether. That would mean renewed Russian domination of Eastern Europe
at sone point we will team up with an authoritrarian Russia, We always have,
In wartime yes but not otherwise. Are you expecting another European war?
Of course when (doesn't look like if at the moment) Trump loses to Cruz tonight in most states, the question will arise as to why that happened.
I think Trump made a big mistake going on the Fox debate and also making a big mistake pitching to a GE audience before the primaries were over.
Softening on immigration and saying the word "flexible" all the time and "changing my position" on top of the Fox videos and attacks that Trump is an impostor, all that in 2 hours in front of national TV was probably what did it.
The key is Louisiana, which is a primary and had multiple polls last week showing a clear Trump lead, if he loses there it really will be the debate which did it and he will be in serious trouble. If he wins there but loses the other 3 Trump can explain Cruz's wins away as they are all caucuses where Cruz does better, Cruz will have done enough to keep the contest going for another month or two but Trump will still win in the end
If Cruz wins 3 out of 4 tonight, the momentum will be with Cruz, even splitting it 2-2 will be enough for Cruz to claim a big victory, everyone will go around Cruz and he becomes the nominee not Trump. Kentucky and Maine are critical, and it seems Trump has lost Maine at the moment.
Rubbish, he will have as much momentum as Santorum did when he beat Romney in a few caucuses. The key is Louisiana which was the most polled and is a primary, that gives the clearest picture, the other 3 are all caucuses which favour Cruz
Right now the results in Kansas and Maine look very similar, Rubio collapsed, Trump damaged ,and Cruz reaping all the rewards.
If Trump has 30, Cruz 50, Rubio and kasich get 10 each, how does Trump win from now on ?
Of course when (doesn't look like if at the moment) Trump loses to Cruz tonight in most states, the question will arise as to why that happened.
I think Trump made a big mistake going on the Fox debate and also making a big mistake pitching to a GE audience before the primaries were over.
Softening on immigration and saying the word "flexible" all the time and "changing my position" on top of the Fox videos and attacks that Trump is an impostor, all that in 2 hours in front of national TV was probably what did it.
The key is Louisiana, which is a primary and had multiple polls last week showing a clear Trump lead, if he loses there it really will be the debate which did it and he will be in serious trouble. If he wins there but loses the other 3 Trump can explain Cruz's wins away as they are all caucuses where Cruz does better, Cruz will have done enough to keep the contest going for another month or two but Trump will still win in the end
If Cruz wins 3 out of 4 tonight, the momentum will be with Cruz, even splitting it 2-2 will be enough for Cruz to claim a big victory, everyone will go around Cruz and he becomes the nominee not Trump. Kentucky and Maine are critical, and it seems Trump has lost Maine at the moment.
Rubbish, he will have as much momentum as Santorum did when he beat Romney in a few caucuses. The key is Louisiana which was the most polled and is a primary, that gives the clearest picture, the other 3 are all caucuses which favour Cruz
Right now the results in Kansas and Maine look very similar, Rubio collapsed, Trump damaged ,and Cruz reaping all the rewards.
If Trump has 30, Cruz 50, Rubio and kasich get 10 each, how does Trump win from now on ?
They are caucuses so irrelevant, Louisiana as a primary has more voters and has had more polls, if Trump wins there he is still nominee though Cruz has got a boost, if he loses there too then Cruz really does have a chance. The last Kansas poll had Trump on 35% Cruz on 29%, the last Louisiana poll had Trump on 48% Cruz on 31% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
Leavers often sound like true believers reciting articles of faith - "govern ourselves" "throw off the bureaucracy" "independence day" and even "come into the light" .
This hardly amounts to a practical and coherent vision of the future.
But, it's more attractive than the defeatism that comes from their opponents.
"Defeatism" - interesting way of looking at it. Are we in some kind of war with other EU countries which we will somehow "win" if we leave?
The defeatism lies with predicting horrors if we leave the EU.
Oh - well there will be a lot more of that.
I'm a remainer of course, but I do genuinely believe that the UK leaving the EU would probably be the most serious error that any major Western country has made since 1945 - it could easily unleash ugly nationalistic forces both here and in continental Europe that might well lead to the breakup of the EU altogether. That would mean renewed Russian domination of Eastern Europe
Of course when (doesn't look like if at the moment) Trump loses to Cruz tonight in most states, the question will arise as to why that happened.
I think Trump made a big mistake going on the Fox debate and also making a big mistake pitching to a GE audience before the primaries were over.
Softening on immigration and saying the word "flexible" all the time and "changing my position" on top of the Fox videos and attacks that Trump is an impostor, all that in 2 hours in front of national TV was probably what did it.
The key is Louisiana, which is a primary and had multiple polls last week showing a clear Trump lead, if he loses there it really will be the debate which did it and he will be in serious trouble. If he wins there but loses the other 3 Trump can explain Cruz's wins away as they are all caucuses where Cruz does better, Cruz will have done enough to keep the contest going for another month or two but Trump will still win in the end
If Cruz wins 3 out of 4 tonight, the momentum will be with Cruz, even splitting it 2-2 will be enough for Cruz to claim a big victory, everyone will go around Cruz and he becomes the nominee not Trump. Kentucky and Maine are critical, and it seems Trump has lost Maine at the moment.
Rubbish, he will have as much momentum as Santorum did when he beat Romney in a few caucuses. The key is Louisiana which was the most polled and is a primary, that gives the clearest picture, the other 3 are all caucuses which favour Cruz
Right now the results in Kansas and Maine look very similar, Rubio collapsed, Trump damaged ,and Cruz reaping all the rewards.
If Trump has 30, Cruz 50, Rubio and kasich get 10 each, how does Trump win from now on ?
Which site are you getting info from ?
Just the Maine and Kansas results. I get the Kansas results from CNN, and the Maine results from the results posted on twitter.
Of course when (doesn't look like if at the moment) Trump loses to Cruz tonight in most states, the question will arise as to why that happened.
I think Trump made a big mistake going on the Fox debate and also making a big mistake pitching to a GE audience before the primaries were over.
Softening on immigration and saying the word "flexible" all the time and "changing my position" on top of the Fox videos and attacks that Trump is an impostor, all that in 2 hours in front of national TV was probably what did it.
The key is Louisiana, which is a primary and had multiple polls last week showing a clear Trump lead, if he loses there it really will be the debate which did it and he will be in serious trouble. If he wins there but loses the other 3 Trump can explain Cruz's wins away as they are all caucuses where Cruz does better, Cruz will have done enough to keep the contest going for another month or two but Trump will still win in the end
If Cruz wins 3 out of 4 tonight, the momentum will be with Cruz, even splitting it 2-2 will be enough for Cruz to claim a big victory, everyone will go around Cruz and he becomes the nominee not Trump. Kentucky and Maine are critical, and it seems Trump has lost Maine at the moment.
Rubbish, he will have as much momentum as Santorum did when he beat Romney in a few caucuses. The key is Louisiana which was the most polled and is a primary, that gives the clearest picture, the other 3 are all caucuses which favour Cruz
Right now the results in Kansas and Maine look very similar, Rubio collapsed, Trump damaged ,and Cruz reaping all the rewards.
If Trump has 30, Cruz 50, Rubio and kasich get 10 each, how does Trump win from now on ?
They are caucuses so irrelevant, Louisiana as a primary has more voters and has had more polls, if Trump wins there he is still nominee though Cruz has got a boost, if he loses there too then Cruz really does have a chance
Delegates and momentum. A state is a state whether it's a caucus or a primary, don't make the same mistake that Hillary did in 2008 in ignoring caucuses.
Of course when (doesn't look like if at the moment) Trump loses to Cruz tonight in most states, the question will arise as to why that happened.
I think Trump made a big mistake going on the Fox debate and also making a big mistake pitching to a GE audience before the primaries were over.
Softening on immigration and saying the word "flexible" all the time and "changing my position" on top of the Fox videos and attacks that Trump is an impostor, all that in 2 hours in front of national TV was probably what did it.
The key is Louisiana, which is a primary and had multiple polls last week showing a clear Trump lead, if he loses there it really will be the debate which did it and he will be in serious trouble. If he wins there but loses the other 3 Trump can explain Cruz's wins away as they are all caucuses where Cruz does better, Cruz will have done enough to keep the contest going for another month or two but Trump will still win in the end
If Cruz wins 3 out of 4 tonight, the momentum will be with Cruz, even splitting it 2-2 will be enough for Cruz to claim a big victory, everyone will go around Cruz and he becomes the nominee not Trump. Kentucky and Maine are critical, and it seems Trump has lost Maine at the moment.
Rubbish, he will have as much momentum as Santorum did when he beat Romney in a few caucuses. The key is Louisiana which was the most polled and is a primary, that gives the clearest picture, the other 3 are all caucuses which favour Cruz
Right now the results in Kansas and Maine look very similar, Rubio collapsed, Trump damaged ,and Cruz reaping all the rewards.
If Trump has 30, Cruz 50, Rubio and kasich get 10 each, how does Trump win from now on ?
They are caucuses so irrelevant, Louisiana as a primary has more voters and has had more polls, if Trump wins there he is still nominee though Cruz has got a boost, if he loses there too then Cruz really does have a chance
Delegates and momentum. A state is a state whether it's a caucus or a primary, don't make the same mistake that Hillary did in 2008 in ignoring caucuses.
Hillary arguably won the popular vote in 2008 and took the contest until June, Obama also won Iowa and South Carolina and 13 states on Super Tuesday, Cruz lost South Carolina and won just 3 states on Super Tuesday
Of course when (doesn't look like if at the moment) Trump loses to Cruz tonight in most states, the question will arise as to why that happened.
I think Trump made a big mistake going on the Fox debate and also making a big mistake pitching to a GE audience before the primaries were over.
Softening on immigration and saying the word "flexible" all the time and "changing my position" on top of the Fox videos and attacks that Trump is an impostor, all that in 2 hours in front of national TV was probably what did it.
The key is Louisiana, which is a primary and had multiple polls last week showing a clear Trump lead, if he loses there it really will be the debate which did it and he will be in serious trouble. If he wins there but loses the other 3 Trump can explain Cruz's wins away as they are all caucuses where Cruz does better, Cruz will have done enough to keep the contest going for another month or two but Trump will still win in the end
If Cruz wins 3 out of 4 tonight, the momentum will be with Cruz, even splitting it 2-2 will be enough for Cruz to claim a big victory, everyone will go around Cruz and he becomes the nominee not Trump. Kentucky and Maine are critical, and it seems Trump has lost Maine at the moment.
Rubbish, he will have as much momentum as Santorum did when he beat Romney in a few caucuses. The key is Louisiana which was the most polled and is a primary, that gives the clearest picture, the other 3 are all caucuses which favour Cruz
Right now the results in Kansas and Maine look very similar, Rubio collapsed, Trump damaged ,and Cruz reaping all the rewards.
If Trump has 30, Cruz 50, Rubio and kasich get 10 each, how does Trump win from now on ?
Which site are you getting info from ?
Real Clear Politics Home Page and Guardian "detailed results" button on their US election coverage are both good
I disagree, Rubio lost the nomination in N.H., he didn't lose a bigger prize afterwards. Tonight Trump probably loses the nomination, so he is the big loser.
Tosh? What has illegal immigration got to do with the EU. What about the legal non EU immigration figures? Are Leave united around not even joining the EEA/EFTA? Can Leave actually tell us what they want us to vote for please? Certainly you had better tell the people of Sunderland and all the workers dependant on the Nissan factory. Renault/Nissan are already building a direct rival to the Sunderland built Nissan/Renault Qashqai... the Kadjar - built in Spain and it's typically £2000 cheaper.
Are Nissan closing the Sunderland plant then?
Meantime nobody has warned Honda the world will fall in if we leave:
Renault-Nissan will have to make investment decisions in future. So will Indian owned JLR. And of course BMW and Honda and Toyota. And GM. Ford. Even VW/ Bentley. The motor industry has been an amazing success story for the UK, fabulous with valuable production capacity, but research and investment budgets are huge and over the long term can be changed. Minis are built in The Netherlands. Jaguars and Land Rover's are built in India. Generally we hhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/23/aston-martin-to-create-up-to-4000-new-jobs-and-announces-second/ave done well out of inward investment to the EU. It's seems to me to be a wise move to keep it that way. We know now that the EU is not going to be a single currency area, we have this special status which to me seems better than the EEA. I am not for exiting the single market and Leavers who want to are peddling snake oil.
Let Leave stand 4 squre behind a Norway style EEA EFTA position. Why can't it.
I disagree, Rubio lost the nomination in N.H., he didn't lose a bigger prize afterwards. Tonight Trump probably loses the nomination, so he is the big loser.
It's ridiculous writing Trump off from this. Even if he only wins LA tonight.
I disagree, Rubio lost the nomination in N.H., he didn't lose a bigger prize afterwards. Tonight Trump probably loses the nomination, so he is the big loser.
No he probably does not, especially if he wins the Michigan, Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida primaries over the next fortnight, all that has happened is Cruz has confirmed his position as Trump's main opponent
I disagree, Rubio lost the nomination in N.H., he didn't lose a bigger prize afterwards. Tonight Trump probably loses the nomination, so he is the big loser.
It's ridiculous writing Trump off from this. Even if he only wins LA tonight.
Looking at 3 different states from 3 different geographical areas all having the same numbers, I'm beginning to doubt that Trump will win any state tonight.
This looks more like a national shift rather than a regional one at this moment. It's early but we will see.
I disagree, Rubio lost the nomination in N.H., he didn't lose a bigger prize afterwards. Tonight Trump probably loses the nomination, so he is the big loser.
You do talk a lot of nonsense.
Remember: this is a betting website. What you say can cost people a lot of money.
Please be measured and rational in your analysis, or in future your posts will be heavily discounted by serious punters accordingly.
I disagree, Rubio lost the nomination in N.H., he didn't lose a bigger prize afterwards. Tonight Trump probably loses the nomination, so he is the big loser.
No he probably does not, especially if he wins the Michigan, Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida primaries over the next fortnight, all that has happened is Cruz has confirmed his position as Trump's main opponent
If Trump loses all those states tonight to Cruz and at similar numbers it will be a very bad sign for Trump.
Not paying as much attention to the US as many here, but isn't Cruz as nuts as Trump?
You can't get a more hard core far right guy than Ted Cruz.
Crfuz is much more reliably right-wing - Trump is just a demagogic roll of the dice. If you were a serious conservative gun-loving evangelical voter, Trump would worry you a bit, Cruz wouldn't.
I disagree, Rubio lost the nomination in N.H., he didn't lose a bigger prize afterwards. Tonight Trump probably loses the nomination, so he is the big loser.
No he probably does not, especially if he wins the Michigan, Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida primaries over the next fortnight, all that has happened is Cruz has confirmed his position as Trump's main opponent
If Trump loses all those states tonight to Cruz and at similar numbers it will be a very bad sign for Trump.
We will see, so far the signs are not good.
They are all caucuses, in terms of delegates they make very little difference, over the next forthnight 5/10 of the largest states in the USA will vote, if Trump wins all of them and adds them to his win in Georgia he will have won 6/10 of the largest US states and will be nominee designate, sealing the deal by winning New York and Pennsylvania at the end of April. Even if Cruz wins every state tonight not one is a big state, he has to win some of the big states over the next two weeks to really be a potential nominee
Not paying as much attention to the US as many here, but isn't Cruz as nuts as Trump?
You can't get a more hard core far right guy than Ted Cruz.
Crfuz is much more reliably right-wing - Trump is just a demagogic roll of the dice. If you were a serious conservative gun-loving evangelical voter, Trump would worry you a bit, Cruz wouldn't.
I have increasingly been of the view that if you were anyone else, anyone even vaguely normal, the reverse is true.
CNN reporting in Kansas that republican turnout up from about 4500 last time to over 13K in Wichita.
Love him or hate him Trump is energising the republicans in a way that must scare the Democrats witless.
Don't place too much emphasis on nomination turnout. In 88 and 92 the Dems whacked the GOP only for Reagan and Bush to win landslides.
Yeah but the democrats usually turn out in much larger numbers. It may be that the Democrat race is a forgone conclusion but they are getting whacked this time. When you have a lead candidate who struggles to inspire I think this is a concern.
Not paying as much attention to the US as many here, but isn't Cruz as nuts as Trump?
Ted Cruz is a fair way to the right of New York moderate Donald Trump.
I really dislike Ted Cruz. I don't understand the basis of his appeal at all.
Ok, well I do, in terms of tea-partyism and evangelical America, but he's not a particularly pleasant character.
Unlike Kasich, who has also shown himself to be highly capable in Ohio - unfortunately he's making his move around 6 weeks too late, but could yet land the veep nomination.
Trump goes big for Rubio, Rubio gets smashed, Cruz succeeds among conservatives, setting up Trump v Cruz, which isn't obviously bad for Trump in most of the remaining states (NB the very most conservative states have voted. Big states coming up include California, New York, Pennsylvania, Arizona and New Jersey) Is Trump really, really clever?
I disagree, Rubio lost the nomination in N.H., he didn't lose a bigger prize afterwards. Tonight Trump probably loses the nomination, so he is the big loser.
No he probably does not, especially if he wins the Michigan, Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida primaries over the next fortnight, all that has happened is Cruz has confirmed his position as Trump's main opponent
If Trump loses all those states tonight to Cruz and at similar numbers it will be a very bad sign for Trump.
We will see, so far the signs are not good.
They are all caucuses, in terms of delegates they make very little difference, over the next forthnight 5/10 of the largest states in the USA will vote, if Trump wins all of them and adds them to his win in Georgia he will have won 6/10 of the largest US states and will be nominee designate, sealing the deal by winning New York and Pennsylvania at the end of April. Even if Cruz wins every state tonight not one is a big state, he has to win some of the big states over the next two weeks to really be a potential nominee
We really need to see the only real primary tonight in Louisiana - if Cruz does outperform the polls there and wins today's caucuses then he will have some momentum. The odds are still on Trump but, as I said yesterday, there may yet be a sting in the tail!
CNN reporting in Kansas that republican turnout up from about 4500 last time to over 13K in Wichita.
Love him or hate him Trump is energising the republicans in a way that must scare the Democrats witless.
Don't place too much emphasis on nomination turnout. In 88 and 92 the Dems whacked the GOP only for Reagan and Bush to win landslides.
Yeah but the democrats usually turn out in much larger numbers. It may be that the Democrat race is a forgone conclusion but they are getting whacked this time. When you have a lead candidate who struggles to inspire I think this is a concern.
Clinton might have lost to Rubio or Kasich, she should thank her lucky stars her opponent will be Trump or Cruz! In the same way in 1968 Nixon would have lost to Bobby Kennedy as he lost to JFK in 1960 but he was able to beat Humphrey and then McGovern in 1972
I'm temporarily out. It's Saturday night so I'm going out for a while.
If Cruz wins Kentucky or Maine, expect serious trouble for Trump.
No, if Cruz wins Louisiana expect some real trouble, if Cruz wins Kentucky or Maine he has simply confirmed himself as the last man standing against Trump but he will still lose
I'm sorry to say the best comparison I can think of for how Cruz and Trump are different in their extremism is Germany in 1932, with Cruz as Papen, and Trump as... the other guy.
CNN reporting in Kansas that republican turnout up from about 4500 last time to over 13K in Wichita.
Love him or hate him Trump is energising the republicans in a way that must scare the Democrats witless.
Don't place too much emphasis on nomination turnout. In 88 and 92 the Dems whacked the GOP only for Reagan and Bush to win landslides.
Yeah but the democrats usually turn out in much larger numbers. It may be that the Democrat race is a forgone conclusion but they are getting whacked this time. When you have a lead candidate who struggles to inspire I think this is a concern.
Clinton might have lost to Rubio or Kasich, she should thank her lucky stars her opponent will be Trump or Cruz! In the same way in 1968 Nixon would have lost to Bobby Kennedy as he lost to JFK in 1960 but he was able to beat Humphrey and then McGovern in 1972
I always found Bobby Kennedy the most interesting American politician of the 60s and his murder was a tragedy. Kasich is someone I could easily imagine voting for. Cruz not in a million years. Trump...probably not but it would depend on his opponent.
Nigel 4 England at 8.45. You have left the thread in a confused state. I sympathise. The text limit is annoying.
However nothing you refer to changes anything. By staying in the EEA and accepting its single market rules and free movement we avoid the EU political idea and concentrate on economics. We do our best to protect ourselves. But Leavers will not accept that. We are in receipt of significant inward investment generally at moment ... The car industry in particular. In due course major investments will continue they will be renewed and extended. I hope. But leaving the single market puts all that at risk. Current investment assumes we will stay in the EU. Over time existing and new investment can go elsewhere. It won't happen overnight but then its quite likelynthat leaving won't either. Based on rational observations I suggest we remain.
CNN reporting in Kansas that republican turnout up from about 4500 last time to over 13K in Wichita.
Love him or hate him Trump is energising the republicans in a way that must scare the Democrats witless.
Don't place too much emphasis on nomination turnout. In 88 and 92 the Dems whacked the GOP only for Reagan and Bush to win landslides.
Yeah but the democrats usually turn out in much larger numbers. It may be that the Democrat race is a forgone conclusion but they are getting whacked this time. When you have a lead candidate who struggles to inspire I think this is a concern.
Clinton might have lost to Rubio or Kasich, she should thank her lucky stars her opponent will be Trump or Cruz! In the same way in 1968 Nixon would have lost to Bobby Kennedy as he lost to JFK in 1960 but he was able to beat Humphrey and then McGovern in 1972
I always found Bobby Kennedy the most interesting American politician of the 60s and his murder was a tragedy. Kasich is someone I could easily imagine voting for. Cruz not in a million years. Trump...probably not but it would depend on his opponent.
Yes but for his untimely death Bobby Kennedy would have almost certainly become president, not Nixon. I expect your sentiment on the candidates will be shared, in the end, by the average American swing voter
Comments
How polite do you want me to be?
Kentucky and Maine are critical, and it seems Trump has lost Maine at the moment.
I'm a remainer of course, but I do genuinely believe that the UK leaving the EU would probably be the most serious error that any major Western country has made since 1945 - it could easily unleash ugly nationalistic forces both here and in continental Europe that might well lead to the breakup of the EU altogether. That would mean renewed Russian domination of Eastern Europe
Cruz 45
Trump 30
Kasich 11
Nothing from the east of Kansas.
...and a trade war between countries now in the EU.
If Trump has 30, Cruz 50, Rubio and kasich get 10 each, how does Trump win from now on ?
The motor industry has been an amazing success story for the UK, fabulous with valuable production capacity, but research and investment budgets are huge and over the long term can be changed.
Minis are built in The Netherlands. Jaguars and Land Rover's are built in India.
Generally we have done well out of inward investment to the EU. It's seems to me to be a wise move to keep it that way.
We know now that the EU is not going to be a single currency area, we have this special status which to me seems better than the EEA. I am not for exiting the single market and Leavers who want to are peddling snake oil.
Let Leave stand 4 squre behind a Norway style EEA EFTA position. Why can't it.
Suits them both for Trump to win there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
I get the Kansas results from CNN, and the Maine results from the results posted on twitter.
Ted Cruz
45.1%
Donald Trump
29.9%
Kentucky
Ted Cruz
52.2%
Donald Trump
26.2%
Maine
Ted Cruz
49.8%
Donald Trump
30.8%
Rubio and Kasich ~ 10% in all.
The defeatism lies with predicting horrors if we leave the EU.
Oh - well there will be a lot more of that.
I'm a remainer of course, buof Eastern Europe
at sone point we will team up with an authoritrarian Russia, We always have,
In wartime yes but not otherwise. Are you expecting another European war?
A time of national posturing, yes.
We were allied with Russia 1907-14 and no shooting.
A state is a state whether it's a caucus or a primary, don't make the same mistake that Hillary did in 2008 in ignoring caucuses.
I'm a remainer of course, buof Eastern Europe
at sone point we will team up with an authoritrarian Russia, We always have,
In wartime yes but not otherwise. Are you expecting another European war?
A time of national posturing, yes.
We were allied with Russia 1907-14 and no shooting.
As I recall, 1914 didn't end well!
I'm a remainer of course, buof Eastern Europe
at sone point we will team up with an authoritrarian Russia, We always have,
In wartime yes but not otherwise. Are you expecting another European war?
A time of national posturing, yes.
We were allied with Russia 1907-14 and no shooting.
Seven years out of the last 200 or so does not seem a very good pointer for the future.
Nationalistic posturing has led to disaster in Europe over the past century - we should not do anything to encourage a resurgence.
In wartime yes but not otherwise. Are you expecting another European war?
A time of national posturing, yes.
We were allied with Russia 1907-14 and no shooting.
As I recall, 1914 didn't end well!
No it didn't.
Mostly because Germany and Russia couldn't back off.
It's Ruby OH
In wartime yes but not otherwise. Are you expecting another European war?
A time of national posturing, yes.
We were allied with Russia 1907-14 and no shooting.
Seven years out of the last 200 or so does not seem a very good pointer for the future.
Nationalistic posturing has led to disaster in Europe over the past century - we should not do anything to encourage a resurgence.
Seven years ? We;ve been allied with most other countries for little more than that.
Oddly our best alliances have been with German states but that;s currently not on offer.
F1 2016 predictions and rambling here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/pre-season-f1-2016-predictions-and.html
Tonight Trump probably loses the nomination, so he is the big loser.
Tosh? What has illegal immigration got to do with the EU. What about the legal non EU immigration figures?
Are Leave united around not even joining the EEA/EFTA?
Can Leave actually tell us what they want us to vote for please?
Certainly you had better tell the people of Sunderland and all the workers dependant on the Nissan factory. Renault/Nissan are already building a direct rival to the Sunderland built Nissan/Renault Qashqai... the Kadjar - built in Spain and it's typically £2000 cheaper.
Are Nissan closing the Sunderland plant then?
Meantime nobody has warned Honda the world will fall in if we leave:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/31/honda-200m-investment-record-week-uk-car-industry-swindon-factory-civic
Renault-Nissan will have to make investment decisions in future. So will Indian owned JLR. And of course BMW and Honda and Toyota. And GM. Ford. Even VW/ Bentley.
The motor industry has been an amazing success story for the UK, fabulous with valuable production capacity, but research and investment budgets are huge and over the long term can be changed.
Minis are built in The Netherlands. Jaguars and Land Rover's are built in India.
Generally we hhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/23/aston-martin-to-create-up-to-4000-new-jobs-and-announces-second/ave done well out of inward investment to the EU. It's seems to me to be a wise move to keep it that way.
We know now that the EU is not going to be a single currency area, we have this special status which to me seems better than the EEA. I am not for exiting the single market and Leavers who want to are peddling snake oil.
Let Leave stand 4 squre behind a Norway style EEA EFTA position. Why can't it.
JLR already have:
http://www.theweek.co.uk/67195/jaguar-land-rover-to-invest-450m-in-engine-factory
So have Honda as per the previous link, so too have Aston Martin:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/23/aston-martin-to-create-up-to-4000-new-jobs-and-announces-second/
Do try and keep up.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ks/
Am up +£230 on both Cruz and Trump. Not fantastic, but good enough.
(also need the cash holding up the book to pay my home insurance premium next week!)
This looks more like a national shift rather than a regional one at this moment.
It's early but we will see.
Remember: this is a betting website. What you say can cost people a lot of money.
Please be measured and rational in your analysis, or in future your posts will be heavily discounted by serious punters accordingly.
Cruzing to victory
We will see, so far the signs are not good.
Love him or hate him Trump is energising the republicans in a way that must scare the Democrats witless.
Ok, well I do, in terms of tea-partyism and evangelical America, but he's not a particularly pleasant character.
It's Saturday night so I'm going out for a while.
If Cruz wins Kentucky or Maine, expect serious trouble for Trump.
Is Trump really, really clever?
DYOR.
Kentucky will be instructive.
It won't scare the Democrats witless if it turns out that they are coming out in their droves to try and derail their own from runner!
Santorum 51 %
Romney 20%
Gingrich 14%
Paul 12 %
In 2008 Huckabee won by 59%, so a Cruz win in Kansas does not have any major significance, albeit it will be a boost to his campaign
You have left the thread in a confused state. I sympathise. The text limit is annoying.
However nothing you refer to changes anything. By staying in the EEA and accepting its single market rules and free movement we avoid the EU political idea and concentrate on economics. We do our best to protect ourselves. But Leavers will not accept that.
We are in receipt of significant inward investment generally at moment ... The car industry in particular.
In due course major investments will continue they will be renewed and extended. I hope. But leaving the single market puts all that at risk. Current investment assumes we will stay in the EU. Over time existing and new investment can go elsewhere. It won't happen overnight but then its quite likelynthat leaving won't either.
Based on rational observations I suggest we remain.
This afternoon I saw Victoria Pendleton fall off a horse in rural Oxfordshire.
It was the first time for me - not the first time for her.