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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Holyrood 2016: the SNP’s hegemony continues

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The big loser from tonight won't be Trump though.

    It's Ruby OH

    I disagree, Rubio lost the nomination in N.H., he didn't lose a bigger prize afterwards.
    Tonight Trump probably loses the nomination, so he is the big loser.
    No he probably does not, especially if he wins the Michigan, Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida primaries over the next fortnight, all that has happened is Cruz has confirmed his position as Trump's main opponent
    If Trump loses all those states tonight to Cruz and at similar numbers it will be a very bad sign for Trump.

    We will see, so far the signs are not good.
    They are all caucuses, in terms of delegates they make very little difference, over the next forthnight 5/10 of the largest states in the USA will vote, if Trump wins all of them and adds them to his win in Georgia he will have won 6/10 of the largest US states and will be nominee designate, sealing the deal by winning New York and Pennsylvania at the end of April. Even if Cruz wins every state tonight not one is a big state, he has to win some of the big states over the next two weeks to really be a potential nominee
    We really need to see the only real primary tonight in Louisiana - if Cruz does outperform the polls there and wins today's caucuses then he will have some momentum. The odds are still on Trump but, as I said yesterday, there may yet be a sting in the tail!
    Cruz is clearly getting some momentum tonight yes but he needs to win in Louisiana to get a really significant boost (the fact it is a closed primary could help him a little)
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    Speedy may be overstrating it, but these are going to be reported as big momentum wins for Cruz.

    The next best media story after Trump winning is Trump losing. Indeed it may be a better one. So it will be played big.
    Exactly.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318

    Speedy may be overstrating it, but these are going to be reported as big momentum wins for Cruz.

    The next best media story after Trump winning is Trump losing. Indeed it may be a better one. So it will be played big.
    Exactly.
    Until Trump wins Michigan on Tuesday, then Florida, Illinois, Ohio and N Carolina the following week
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,051
    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The big loser from tonight won't be Trump though.

    It's Ruby OH

    I disagree, Rubio lost the nomination in N.H., he didn't lose a bigger prize afterwards.
    Tonight Trump probably loses the nomination, so he is the big loser.
    No he probably does not, especially if he wins the Michigan, Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida primaries over the next fortnight, all that has happened is Cruz has confirmed his position as Trump's main opponent
    If Trump loses all those states tonight to Cruz and at similar numbers it will be a very bad sign for Trump.

    We will see, so far the signs are not good.
    They are all caucuses, in terms of delegates they make very little difference, over the next forthnight 5/10 of the largest states in the USA will vote, if Trump wins all of them and adds them to his win in Georgia he will have won 6/10 of the largest US states and will be nominee designate, sealing the deal by winning New York and Pennsylvania at the end of April. Even if Cruz wins every state tonight not one is a big state, he has to win some of the big states over the next two weeks to really be a potential nominee
    We really need to see the only real primary tonight in Louisiana - if Cruz does outperform the polls there and wins today's caucuses then he will have some momentum. The odds are still on Trump but, as I said yesterday, there may yet be a sting in the tail!
    Cruz is clearly getting some momentum tonight yes but he needs to win in Louisiana to get a really significant boost (the fact it is a closed primary could help him a little)
    Kentucky is important too.
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    But then, outside the EU/EEA we could set up chip fabs here... build our own nuclear power plants... restart ship building by making cruise liners. I don't see anything we need from the EU that we can't make here as we used to do.
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    CNN reporting in Kansas that republican turnout up from about 4500 last time to over 13K in Wichita.

    Love him or hate him Trump is energising the republicans in a way that must scare the Democrats witless.

    Don't place too much emphasis on nomination turnout. In 88 and 92 the Dems whacked the GOP only for Reagan and Bush to win landslides.
    Yeah but the democrats usually turn out in much larger numbers. It may be that the Democrat race is a forgone conclusion but they are getting whacked this time. When you have a lead candidate who struggles to inspire I think this is a concern.
    Clinton might have lost to Rubio or Kasich, she should thank her lucky stars her opponent will be Trump or Cruz! In the same way in 1968 Nixon would have lost to Bobby Kennedy as he lost to JFK in 1960 but he was able to beat Humphrey and then McGovern in 1972
    The significant point is that the Democrats picked McGovern in 72. Eg a natural born loser. Why? Because it made them feel warm cosy and satisfied.
    Dangerous thing to throw out a winner on a whim.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,050
    Mr. L, thanks for the recommendation. Unfortunately, I'm in the middle of two large books and have others I want to get read (and spending a lot of time writing means I read less quickly than I used to).
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Not paying as much attention to the US as many here, but isn't Cruz as nuts as Trump?

    Pretty much worse - almost as bad as Farage :):):)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The big loser from tonight won't be Trump though.

    It's Ruby OH

    I disagree, Rubio lost the nomination in N.H., he didn't lose a bigger prize afterwards.
    Tonight Trump probably loses the nomination, so he is the big loser.
    No he probably does not, especially if he wins the Michigan, Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida primaries over the next fortnight, all that has happened is Cruz has confirmed his position as Trump's main opponent
    If Trump loses all those states tonight to Cruz and at similar numbers it will be a very bad sign for Trump.

    We will see, so far the signs are not good.
    They are all caucuses, in terms of delegates they make very little difference, over the next forthnight 5/10 of the largest states in the USA will vote, if Trump wins all of them and adds them to his win in Georgia he will have won 6/10 of the largest US states and will be nominee designate, sealing the deal by winning New York and Pennsylvania at the end of April. Even if Cruz wins every state tonight not one is a big state, he has to win some of the big states over the next two weeks to really be a potential nominee
    We really need to see the only real primary tonight in Louisiana - if Cruz does outperform the polls there and wins today's caucuses then he will have some momentum. The odds are still on Trump but, as I said yesterday, there may yet be a sting in the tail!
    Cruz is clearly getting some momentum tonight yes but he needs to win in Louisiana to get a really significant boost (the fact it is a closed primary could help him a little)
    Kentucky is important too.
    Kentucky is a caucus not a primary like Louisiana
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,646
    Good moaning!

    I brung you a massage:

    I heap everyone will jean me in washing the Sopermarine Spotfire a very hippy 80th boothday!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supermarine_Spitfire
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    edited March 2016

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    CNN reporting in Kansas that republican turnout up from about 4500 last time to over 13K in Wichita.

    Love him or hate him Trump is energising the republicans in a way that must scare the Democrats witless.

    Don't place too much emphasis on nomination turnout. In 88 and 92 the Dems whacked the GOP only for Reagan and Bush to win landslides.
    Yeah but the democrats usually turn out in much larger numbers. It may be that the Democrat race is a forgone conclusion but they are getting whacked this time. When you have a lead candidate who struggles to inspire I think this is a concern.
    Clinton might have lost to Rubio or Kasich, she should thank her lucky stars her opponent will be Trump or Cruz! In the same way in 1968 Nixon would have lost to Bobby Kennedy as he lost to JFK in 1960 but he was able to beat Humphrey and then McGovern in 1972
    The significant point is that the Democrats picked McGovern in 72. Eg a natural born loser. Why? Because it made them feel warm cosy and satisfied.
    Dangerous thing to throw out a winner on a whim.
    If the GOP follows the same pattern it will be Cruz 2020 then! Mind you given McGovern's main opponents were Humphrey, the 1968 loser, Muskie, Humphrey's VP nominee (who was hit by a number of rumours in the campaign) and George Wallace there were not exactly a great deal of winners in the field
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,973
    Many of us not of the faith had a sneaking regard for the way Tories would always rally round their leader. Even the seriously dislikable which Cameron certainly isn't.

    These last weeks have been something of an eye opener. Poor old Steve Hilton gave his all to remove the taint of the 'nasty party' and he almost succeeded. I wonder how long it'll take to get rid of the mark 2 version?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,050
    Mr. Roger, Tories rallying round a leader?! Howard was a stopgap, IDS was tossed overboard, Thatcher was axed, Major jumped before he could be pushed. The Conservative leadership process appears modelled on the Ancient Macedonian monarchy.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,646
    EPG said:

    I'm sorry to say the best comparison I can think of for how Cruz and Trump are different in their extremism is Germany in 1932, with Cruz as Papen, and Trump as... the other guy.

    Hysterical hyperbole!
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Cruz ahead 2-1 in Kansas with 24% reporting - looks solid. But zero official results from Maine yet.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Modest crossover on Betfair - Cruz finally overhauls Rubio! 7 and 8 respectively.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    PAW said:

    But then, outside the EU/EEA we could set up chip fabs here... build our own nuclear power plants... restart ship building by making cruise liners. I don't see anything we need from the EU that we can't make here as we used to do.

    But the world has moved on. We can't turn the clock back to what we "used to do". We are in the 2010s not the 1950s.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,051
    Paddy Power has Cruz at 4-1 (And Rubio at 12-1) in Kentucky btw.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    Roger said:

    Many of us not of the faith had a sneaking regard for the way Tories would always rally round their leader. Even the seriously dislikable which Cameron certainly isn't.

    These last weeks have been something of an eye opener. Poor old Steve Hilton gave his all to remove the taint of the 'nasty party' and he almost succeeded. I wonder how long it'll take to get rid of the mark 2 version?

    I have a huge amount of respect (and time) for Steve Hilton.

    He's a Brexiter. His strategy was for Cameron to spend his first term walking out of EU summits looking hugely frustrated at their intractability towards reform.

    He'd then call a referendum in his second term and recommend a Leave vote.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,935
    Pulpstar said:

    Paddy Power has Cruz at 4-1 (And Rubio at 12-1) in Kentucky btw.

    you on Cruz?
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    If we have the chip designers - and we do with ARM and Imagination and Wolfson - why not have a fab?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,051
    edited March 2016

    Pulpstar said:

    Paddy Power has Cruz at 4-1 (And Rubio at 12-1) in Kentucky btw.

    you on Cruz?
    I've backed both of them actually ! The Rubio bet is probably a waste, but who knows tonight.

    £4.63 allowed on Ted :) £2 Marco.

    If I was allowed any sort of size I'd back Cruz ^^;
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,051
    The CNN voodoo poll had Cruz 30, Rubio 27, Trump 27 in Kentucky.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Cruz ahead 2-1 in Kansas with 24% reporting - looks solid. But zero official results from Maine yet.

    Looking at how his fellow evangelicals Huckerbee and Santorum did in Kansas in 2008 and 2012 respectively, then Cruz has actually underperformed in Kansas.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited March 2016
    Wow .....Donald Trump slumps to 1.67 with Betfair for the GOP nomination!
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Jeremy Diamond ✔ ‎@JDiamond1
    A protester with a fake penis attached to his baseball cap was just ejected from @realDonaldTrump's Orlando rally. That is all.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    Bullying into declaring for Remain; bullying to be suspended, or step aside, if you're for Brexit:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/706231168077852672
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,051
    edited March 2016

    Wow .....Donald Trump slumps to 1.67 with Betfair for the GOP nomination!

    The great news (For me) is it's all heading to Cruz :D
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,935
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Paddy Power has Cruz at 4-1 (And Rubio at 12-1) in Kentucky btw.

    you on Cruz?
    I've backed both of them actually ! The Rubio bet is probably a waste, but who knows tonight.

    £4.63 allowed on Ted :) £2 Marco.

    If I was allowed any sort of size I'd back Cruz ^^;
    God I wish I had. Too busy watching golf
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Cruz ahead 2-1 in Kansas with 24% reporting - looks solid. But zero official results from Maine yet.

    Looking at how his fellow evangelicals Huckerbee and Santorum did in Kansas in 2008 and 2012 respectively, then Cruz has actually underperformed in Kansas.
    Cruz was probably favourite in Kansas (though a complete landslide probably wasn't expected), but Maine is shaping up to be the real WTF result.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857

    PAW said:

    But then, outside the EU/EEA we could set up chip fabs here... build our own nuclear power plants... restart ship building by making cruise liners. I don't see anything we need from the EU that we can't make here as we used to do.

    But the world has moved on. We can't turn the clock back to what we "used to do". We are in the 2010s not the 1950s.
    It is not written in stone anywhere that the EU is The Future.

    That's up to us.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,646

    PAW said:

    But then, outside the EU/EEA we could set up chip fabs here... build our own nuclear power plants... restart ship building by making cruise liners. I don't see anything we need from the EU that we can't make here as we used to do.

    But the world has moved on. We can't turn the clock back to what we "used to do". We are in the 2010s not the 1950s.
    The Treaty of Rome dates from the 1950s...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,051
    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2285258

    Market still open.

    Trump doesn't look like a 1-16 shot on tonight's numbers in another closed caucus.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,302

    PAW said:

    But then, outside the EU/EEA we could set up chip fabs here... build our own nuclear power plants... restart ship building by making cruise liners. I don't see anything we need from the EU that we can't make here as we used to do.

    But the world has moved on. We can't turn the clock back to what we "used to do". We are in the 2010s not the 1950s.
    It is not written in stone anywhere that the EU is The Future.

    That's up to us.
    Nothing is forever. One day the EU will be no more.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857

    Wow .....Donald Trump slumps to 1.67 with Betfair for the GOP nomination!

    I'll wait until the market "fully" overreacts, and then lay Cruz.
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    NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    Danny565 said:

    Cruz ahead 2-1 in Kansas with 24% reporting - looks solid. But zero official results from Maine yet.

    Looking at how his fellow evangelicals Huckerbee and Santorum did in Kansas in 2008 and 2012 respectively, then Cruz has actually underperformed in Kansas.
    Cruz was probably favourite in Kansas (though a complete landslide probably wasn't expected), but Maine is shaping up to be the real WTF result.
    Maine Republicans are pretty right wing. Its a very rural place.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    CNN VOODOO POLL ALERT: Bernie Sanders "well ahead" of Hillary Clinton at one Nebraska caucus site.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    There's nothing civil about the Tory war on Europe tonight. Boris Johnson has accused Downing Street of getting John Longworth axed
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Finally some official Maine stats - Cruz 48 Trump 35, after 4% counted...
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    NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    If officials from No 10 were in anyway involved in a man getting suspended for his job for supporting Brexit, thats appalling.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    Maine 5% in

    Cruz 48%
    Trump 35%
    Rubio 8.6%
    Kasich 7.4%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/me/
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Cruz ahead 2-1 in Kansas with 24% reporting - looks solid. But zero official results from Maine yet.

    Looking at how his fellow evangelicals Huckerbee and Santorum did in Kansas in 2008 and 2012 respectively, then Cruz has actually underperformed in Kansas.
    Cruz was probably favourite in Kansas (though a complete landslide probably wasn't expected), but Maine is shaping up to be the real WTF result.
    Maine Republicans are pretty right wing. Its a very rural place.
    Is it much more rural/right-wing than Vermont?
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    rcs1000 said:

    PAW said:

    But then, outside the EU/EEA we could set up chip fabs here... build our own nuclear power plants... restart ship building by making cruise liners. I don't see anything we need from the EU that we can't make here as we used to do.

    But the world has moved on. We can't turn the clock back to what we "used to do". We are in the 2010s not the 1950s.
    It is not written in stone anywhere that the EU is The Future.

    That's up to us.
    Nothing is forever. One day the EU will be no more.
    From the history of its predecessors such as the Roman Empire , the empire of Charlemagne and others , it has 100 plus years to go as of course does the Euro .
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    Michael Gove has given his first print Brexit interview to the Sunday Times. Warns that the EU is fuelling both terrorism and fascism
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2285258

    Market still open.

    Trump doesn't look like a 1-16 shot on tonight's numbers in another closed caucus.

    PP has this market open too:

    https://android.paddypower.mobi/#!paddypower_publication_event_iphone.t?classId=33&typeId=13089&eventId=10270323

    Mindbleach time!
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    CNN reporting in Kansas that republican turnout up from about 4500 last time to over 13K in Wichita.

    Love him or hate him Trump is energising the republicans in a way that must scare the Democrats witless.

    Don't place too much emphasis on nomination turnout. In 88 and 92 the Dems whacked the GOP only for Reagan and Bush to win landslides.
    Yeah but the democrats usually turn out in much larger numbers. It may be that the Democrat race is a forgone conclusion but they are getting whacked this time. When you have a lead candidate who struggles to inspire I think this is a concern.
    Clinton might have lost to Rubio or Kasich, she should thank her lucky stars her opponent will be Trump or Cruz! In the same way in 1968 Nixon would have lost to Bobby Kennedy as he lost to JFK in 1960 but he was able to beat Humphrey and then McGovern in 1972
    I always found Bobby Kennedy the most interesting American politician of the 60s and his murder was a tragedy. Kasich is someone I could easily imagine voting for. Cruz not in a million years. Trump...probably not but it would depend on his opponent.
    Yes but for his untimely death Bobby Kennedy would have almost certainly become president, not Nixon. I expect your sentiment on the candidates will be shared, in the end, by the average American swing voter
    I suspect Humphrey would have ended up the Democratic nominee anyway in 1968.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    Michael Gove has given his first print Brexit interview to the Sunday Times. Warns that the EU is fuelling both terrorism and fascism

    More Project Of Fear arguments from the Leave side .
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    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Cruz ahead 2-1 in Kansas with 24% reporting - looks solid. But zero official results from Maine yet.

    Looking at how his fellow evangelicals Huckerbee and Santorum did in Kansas in 2008 and 2012 respectively, then Cruz has actually underperformed in Kansas.
    Cruz was probably favourite in Kansas (though a complete landslide probably wasn't expected), but Maine is shaping up to be the real WTF result.
    Maine Republicans are pretty right wing. Its a very rural place.
    Is it much more rural/right-wing than Vermont?
    Vermont is probably Greener .... Oi, it's the way I tell 'em.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    There's nothing civil about the Tory war on Europe tonight. Boris Johnson has accused Downing Street of getting John Longworth axed

    It's enough to make you think they have something to hide......
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Nothing from Kansas City, so far...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Cruz ahead 2-1 in Kansas with 24% reporting - looks solid. But zero official results from Maine yet.

    Looking at how his fellow evangelicals Huckerbee and Santorum did in Kansas in 2008 and 2012 respectively, then Cruz has actually underperformed in Kansas.
    Cruz was probably favourite in Kansas (though a complete landslide probably wasn't expected), but Maine is shaping up to be the real WTF result.
    Maine Republicans are pretty right wing. Its a very rural place.
    Is it much more rural/right-wing than Vermont?
    Yes, Vermont went for Obama by 36% in 2012 and has Sanders as its Senator, Maine went for Obama by 16% in 2012 and had two Republican Senators until recently
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    If officials from No 10 were in anyway involved in a man getting suspended for his job for supporting Brexit, thats appalling.

    This is a campaign that Cameron cannot afford to lose. His place in history is at stake.

    There will be casualties.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,051
    Bunfight on CNN.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    If officials from No 10 were in anyway involved in a man getting suspended for his job for supporting Brexit, thats appalling.

    This is a campaign that Cameron cannot afford to lose. His place in history is at stake.

    There will be casualties.
    Cameron loses either way.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857

    If officials from No 10 were in anyway involved in a man getting suspended for his job for supporting Brexit, thats appalling.

    Who knows?

    What we do know is that there aren't many lengths to which the Government won't go to win this.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    CNN reporting in Kansas that republican turnout up from about 4500 last time to over 13K in Wichita.

    Love him or hate him Trump is energising the republicans in a way that must scare the Democrats witless.

    Don't place too much emphasis on nomination turnout. In 88 and 92 the Dems whacked the GOP only for Reagan and Bush to win landslides.
    Yeah but the democrats usually turn out in much larger numbers. It may be that the Democrat race is a forgone conclusion but they are getting whacked this time. When you have a lead candidate who struggles to inspire I think this is a concern.
    Clinton might have lost to Rubio or Kasich, she should thank her lucky stars her opponent will be Trump or Cruz! In the same way in 1968 Nixon would have lost to Bobby Kennedy as he lost to JFK in 1960 but he was able to beat Humphrey and then McGovern in 1972
    I always found Bobby Kennedy the most interesting American politician of the 60s and his murder was a tragedy. Kasich is someone I could easily imagine voting for. Cruz not in a million years. Trump...probably not but it would depend on his opponent.
    Yes but for his untimely death Bobby Kennedy would have almost certainly become president, not Nixon. I expect your sentiment on the candidates will be shared, in the end, by the average American swing voter
    I suspect Humphrey would have ended up the Democratic nominee anyway in 1968.
    Hard to tell, Humphrey only won at the convention, after Bobby Kennedy won California (the night he was assassinated) he would have had real momentum
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    Gove warns the EU has boosted "Hitler worshippers" and says the far right is stronger than at any time since the 1930s because of EU
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Tim Montgomerie ن ‏@montie
    Some worried Boris and Gove would support #Brexit but not fight for it. Tmrw's Sunday paper interviews suggest their boxing gloves are on..
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    Gove warns the EU has boosted "Hitler worshippers" and says the far right is stronger than at any time since the 1930s because of EU

    It is, of course, impossible to prove the counterfactual.

    However, globalisation and non-European migration are probably much more to blame.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Well it all seems a long time since I was told by the Conservative supporters on site that the referendum would be conducted in a spirit of amity.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Is this Gove character actually a Government Minister ? Astonishing .
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    My thoughts are with Mrs Murdoch on what must be a very difficult night for her.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    If officials from No 10 were in anyway involved in a man getting suspended for his job for supporting Brexit, thats appalling.

    This is a campaign that Cameron cannot afford to lose. His place in history is at stake.

    There will be casualties.
    Cameron loses either way.
    No - it's his party that will lose. He will win - he will retire as the man who kept the UK and the EU intact - two of the most successful supranational entities the world has ever seen.

    His mypoic party will be left to [ick up the pievces.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,646

    Well it all seems a long time since I was told by the Conservative supporters on site that the referendum would be conducted in a spirit of amity.

    Dave started it :)
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    My thoughts are with Mrs Murdoch on what must be a very difficult night for her.
    Must buy some Shares in Pfizer
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited March 2016
    Something for the remain side Tories ;-)


    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    Gove has urged Tory regicides to abandon coup plot against Cameron. Says it would be "self-indulgent"
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    CNN reporting in Kansas that republican turnout up from about 4500 last time to over 13K in Wichita.

    Love him or hate him Trump is energising the republicans in a way that must scare the Democrats witless.

    Don't place too much emphasis on nomination turnout. In 88 and 92 the Dems whacked the GOP only for Reagan and Bush to win landslides.
    Yeah but the democrats usually turn out in much larger numbers. It may be that the Democrat race is a forgone conclusion but they are getting whacked this time. When you have a lead candidate who struggles to inspire I think this is a concern.
    Clinton might have lost to Rubio or Kasich, she should thank her lucky stars her opponent will be Trump or Cruz! In the same way in 1968 Nixon would have lost to Bobby Kennedy as he lost to JFK in 1960 but he was able to beat Humphrey and then McGovern in 1972
    I always found Bobby Kennedy the most interesting American politician of the 60s and his murder was a tragedy. Kasich is someone I could easily imagine voting for. Cruz not in a million years. Trump...probably not but it would depend on his opponent.
    Yes but for his untimely death Bobby Kennedy would have almost certainly become president, not Nixon. I expect your sentiment on the candidates will be shared, in the end, by the average American swing voter
    I suspect Humphrey would have ended up the Democratic nominee anyway in 1968.
    Hard to tell, Humphrey only won at the convention, after Bobby Kennedy won California (the night he was assassinated) he would have had real momentum
    As I read it Humphrey was not even contesting the primaries but he still went on to win the nomination. Plenty anti RFK opinions about.
  • Options
    Project Fear now being used by leave with Gove accusing the EU of the rise in fascism, Boris accusing No 10 of colluding with BCC to get Longworth sacked, and the Sunday Express stating that our borders agency will be taken over by the EU in a full on attack on our sovereignty. All this will achieve is the polarisation of those already committed to either side and those of us undecided just despairing and switching off. The whole campaign so far is just off the scale of stupity
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    If officials from No 10 were in anyway involved in a man getting suspended for his job for supporting Brexit, thats appalling.

    This is a campaign that Cameron cannot afford to lose. His place in history is at stake.

    There will be casualties.
    Cameron loses either way.
    No - it's his party that will lose. He will win - he will retire as the man who kept the UK and the EU intact - two of the most successful supranational entities the world has ever seen.

    His mypoic party will be left to [ick up the pievces.
    When the promises he made on his renegotiation turn out to be bollocks he will be vilified for ever more.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,228

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    There's nothing civil about the Tory war on Europe tonight. Boris Johnson has accused Downing Street of getting John Longworth axed

    For the avoidance of doubt, the total involvement of Cameron/No10 in the suspension of John Longworth is exactly zero.

    Is Boris capable of distinguishing between fact and fiction?


  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Well it all seems a long time since I was told by the Conservative supporters on site that the referendum would be conducted in a spirit of amity.

    Yes. Apparently it will be conducted amicably and without hyperbole.

    More popcorn at the back please...
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    Well it all seems a long time since I was told by the Conservative supporters on site that the referendum would be conducted in a spirit of amity.

    Dave started it :)
    Sounds a bit childish - in fact everyone needs to grow up
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,646

    Project Fear now being used by leave with Gove accusing the EU of the rise in fascism, Boris accusing No 10 of colluding with BCC to get Longworth sacked, and the Sunday Express stating that our borders agency will be taken over by the EU in a full on attack on our sovereignty. All this will achieve is the polarisation of those already committed to either side and those of us undecided just despairing and switching off. The whole campaign so far is just off the scale of stupity

    The simple, positive message that the Sunil on Sundays prefers is as follows:

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    viewcode said:

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    There's nothing civil about the Tory war on Europe tonight. Boris Johnson has accused Downing Street of getting John Longworth axed

    For the avoidance of doubt, the total involvement of Cameron/No10 in the suspension of John Longworth is exactly zero.

    Is Boris capable of distinguishing between fact and fiction?


    And we know this how?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,646

    If officials from No 10 were in anyway involved in a man getting suspended for his job for supporting Brexit, thats appalling.

    This is a campaign that Cameron cannot afford to lose. His place in history is at stake.

    There will be casualties.
    Cameron loses either way.
    No - it's his party that will lose. He will win - he will retire as the man who kept the UK and the EU intact - two of the most successful supranational entities the world has ever seen.

    His mypoic party will be left to [ick up the pievces.
    If the EU is so successful, how come we don't use their currency?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857

    Well it all seems a long time since I was told by the Conservative supporters on site that the referendum would be conducted in a spirit of amity.

    I actually think there won't be much resentment between Leave Tories to Remain Tories (or vice-versa) where they have consistently backed one side, or the other.

    There will be suspicions hanging over those who changed their positions rather too conveniently at the eleventh hour.

    There will be serious implications for the current leadership, and on the next leadership election.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    viewcode said:

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    There's nothing civil about the Tory war on Europe tonight. Boris Johnson has accused Downing Street of getting John Longworth axed


    Is Boris capable of distinguishing between fact and fiction?


    No facts have gone out of the window since he came out for Leave same as they have done for Gove .
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    viewcode said:

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    There's nothing civil about the Tory war on Europe tonight. Boris Johnson has accused Downing Street of getting John Longworth axed

    For the avoidance of doubt, the total involvement of Cameron/No10 in the suspension of John Longworth is exactly zero.

    Is Boris capable of distinguishing between fact and fiction?


    Are you Dave Cameron?
  • Options

    Project Fear now being used by leave with Gove accusing the EU of the rise in fascism, Boris accusing No 10 of colluding with BCC to get Longworth sacked, and the Sunday Express stating that our borders agency will be taken over by the EU in a full on attack on our sovereignty. All this will achieve is the polarisation of those already committed to either side and those of us undecided just despairing and switching off. The whole campaign so far is just off the scale of stupity

    The simple, positive message that the Sunil on Sundays prefers is as follows:

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!
    I absolutely believe n Britain but I have not been persuaded by either side
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    Gove warns the EU has boosted "Hitler worshippers" and says the far right is stronger than at any time since the 1930s because of EU

    Seems a rather odd comment - anything to do with EU expansion to former USSR states?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    CNN reporting in Kansas that republican turnout up from about 4500 last time to over 13K in Wichita.

    Love him or hate him Trump is energising the republicans in a way that must scare the Democrats witless.

    Don't place too much emphasis on nomination turnout. In 88 and 92 the Dems whacked the GOP only for Reagan and Bush to win landslides.
    Yeah but the democrats usually turn out in much larger numbers. It may be that the Democrat race is a forgone conclusion but they are getting whacked this time. When you have a lead candidate who struggles to inspire I think this is a concern.
    Clinton might have lost to Rubio or Kasich, she shoul1972
    I always found Bobby Kennedy the most interestin.
    Yes but for his untimely death Bobby Kennedy would have almost certainly become president, not Nixon. I expect your sentiment on the candidates will be shared, in the end, by the average American swing voter
    I suspect Humphrey would have ended up the Democratic nominee anyway in 1968.
    Hard to tell, Humphrey only won at the convention, after Bobby Kennedy won California (the night he was assassinated) he would have had real momentum
    As I read it Humphrey was not even contesting the primaries but he still went on to win the nomination. Plenty anti RFK opinions about.
    'Some historians, such as Theodore H. White and Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., have argued that Kennedy's broad appeal and famed charisma would have convinced the party bosses at the Democratic Convention to give him the nomination. Jack Newfield, author of RFK: A Memoir, stated in a 1998 interview that on the night he was assassinated, "[Kennedy] had a phone conversation with Mayor Daley of Chicago, and Mayor Daley all but promised to throw the Illinois delegates to Bobby at the convention in August 1968. I think he said to me, and Pete Hamill, 'Daley is the ball game, and I think we have Daley.'" However, other writers such as Tom Wicker, who covered the Kennedy campaign for The New York Times, believe that Humphrey's large lead in delegate votes from non-primary states, combined with Senator McCarthy's refusal to quit the race, would have prevented Kennedy from ever winning a majority at the Democratic Convention, and that Humphrey would have been the Democratic nominee even if Kennedy had lived.'

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1968
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,372
    This is a fantastic article in the Guardian about why MMA has become so popular,

    http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/mar/04/the-fight-game-reloaded-how-mma-conquered-world-ufc
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,228

    viewcode said:

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    There's nothing civil about the Tory war on Europe tonight. Boris Johnson has accused Downing Street of getting John Longworth axed

    For the avoidance of doubt, the total involvement of Cameron/No10 in the suspension of John Longworth is exactly zero.

    Is Boris capable of distinguishing between fact and fiction?


    Are you Dave Cameron?
    No. I am not Dave Cameron.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,935

    Project Fear now being used by leave with Gove accusing the EU of the rise in fascism, Boris accusing No 10 of colluding with BCC to get Longworth sacked, and the Sunday Express stating that our borders agency will be taken over by the EU in a full on attack on our sovereignty. All this will achieve is the polarisation of those already committed to either side and those of us undecided just despairing and switching off. The whole campaign so far is just off the scale of stupity

    The simple, positive message that the Sunil on Sundays prefers is as follows:

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!
    Monday to Saturday not so much
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    If officials from No 10 were in anyway involved in a man getting suspended for his job for supporting Brexit, thats appalling.

    This is a campaign that Cameron cannot afford to lose. His place in history is at stake.

    There will be casualties.
    Cameron loses either way.
    No - it's his party that will lose. He will win - he will retire as the man who kept the UK and the EU intact - two of the most successful supranational entities the world has ever seen.

    His mypoic party will be left to [ick up the pievces.
    You are right if the scenario unfolds that way.
    The fact that N4E concentrates on Cameron's future explains the crummy motivation by the numpty wing of the Tories. When you look at the fact that the main opposition to the referendum comes from crass Farage and his BNPlite and revengers on the dumbassed Tory wing then you do have to think Remain ought to win.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,228

    viewcode said:

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    There's nothing civil about the Tory war on Europe tonight. Boris Johnson has accused Downing Street of getting John Longworth axed


    Is Boris capable of distinguishing between fact and fiction?


    No facts have gone out of the window since he came out for Leave same as they have done for Gove .
    Yes, but he must know on some level there's no connection. If he's firing off wild accusations...well, what exactly is happening? Was he pissed?
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    Well it all seems a long time since I was told by the Conservative supporters on site that the referendum would be conducted in a spirit of amity.

    The naivety of some Tories about this whole process has been quite extraordinary.

    Some of them apparently believed that Cameron was genuinely undecided about whether the UK should remain in the EU.

    Others seemed to be under the impression that the referendum campaign would be some kind of village cricket match in which playing fair was more important than winning.

    Unbelievable.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,051
    Looking good for Cruz in Kentucky from that CNN segment.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    If officials from No 10 were in anyway involved in a man getting suspended for his job for supporting Brexit, thats appalling.

    This is a campaign that Cameron cannot afford to lose. His place in history is at stake.

    There will be casualties.
    Cameron loses either way.
    No - it's his party that will lose. He will win - he will retire as the man who kept the UK and the EU intact - two of the most successful supranational entities the world has ever seen.

    His mypoic party will be left to [ick up the pievces.
    If the EU is so successful, how come we don't use their currency?
    Pity !
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Pulpstar said:

    Looking good for Cruz in Kentucky from that CNN segment.

    It would be a fantastic night for Cruz if he takes 3 of the 4.
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    If officials from No 10 were in anyway involved in a man getting suspended for his job for supporting Brexit, thats appalling.

    This is a campaign that Cameron cannot afford to lose. His place in history is at stake.

    There will be casualties.
    Cameron loses either way.
    No - it's his party that will lose. He will win - he will retire as the man who kept the UK and the EU intact - two of the most successful supranational entities the world has ever seen.

    His mypoic party will be left to [ick up the pievces.
    You are right if the scenario unfolds that way.
    The fact that N4E concentrates on Cameron's future explains the crummy motivation by the numpty wing of the Tories. When you look at the fact that the main opposition to the referendum comes from crass Farage and his BNPlite and revengers on the dumbassed Tory wing then you do have to think Remain ought to win.
    I'm 60 years old and have never voted Tory, ever.

    I could not care less about Cameron, other than he was a man I admired but his behavior in this matter is appalling
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,051
    Sanders coming in a bit too, he'll get TONKED in Louisiana though.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Project Fear now being used by leave with Gove accusing the EU of the rise in fascism, Boris accusing No 10 of colluding with BCC to get Longworth sacked, and the Sunday Express stating that our borders agency will be taken over by the EU in a full on attack on our sovereignty. All this will achieve is the polarisation of those already committed to either side and those of us undecided just despairing and switching off. The whole campaign so far is just off the scale of stupity

    That's funny ! Most Fascists in the UK wants to LEAVE.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,051

    Pulpstar said:

    Looking good for Cruz in Kentucky from that CNN segment.

    It would be a fantastic night for Cruz if he takes 3 of the 4.
    My Cruz position has doubled in value :)
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Kansas called for Cruz.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,228

    viewcode said:

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound
    There's nothing civil about the Tory war on Europe tonight. Boris Johnson has accused Downing Street of getting John Longworth axed

    For the avoidance of doubt, the total involvement of Cameron/No10 in the suspension of John Longworth is exactly zero.

    Is Boris capable of distinguishing between fact and fiction?


    And we know this how?
    Because, contrary to his reputation on this board, Cameron is not actually Lex Luthor. The PM's ability to reach across, pause, stroke the red button lovingly and release the laser sharks whilst murmuring "you have failed me for the last time, Longworth" is sadly limited.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    CNN claiming that Cruz's "internal polls" showed a shift away from Trump after Thursday's debate.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looking good for Cruz in Kentucky from that CNN segment.

    It would be a fantastic night for Cruz if he takes 3 of the 4.
    My Cruz position has doubled in value :)
    Good odds for Cruz in Florida...
This discussion has been closed.