politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Holyrood 2016: the SNP’s hegemony continues

Lucky you - I messed-up!

Mr. Eagles, you think the Scottish Labour leader is set to become the political leader of Scotland?

A Tory MSP put it well recently. The Tories have a ceiling but Labour don't have a floor. How bad can it get? I would be genuinely surprised if Labour win a single constituency seat but I still think they will win enough list seats to pip the Tories. Could be close though.

F1: my pre-season ramble is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/pre-season-f1-2016-predictions-and.html

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scottish Labour are like Carthaginian soldiers just before the Battle of Zama. they are led by a numpty, facing a formidable opponent, they know they're in for the shellacking of their lives.

I think it's worse than that for them.

Like the Bulgars after Kleidion?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scottish Labour are like Carthaginian soldiers just before the Battle of Zama. they are led by a numpty, facing a formidable opponent, they know they're in for the shellacking of their lives.

I think it's worse than that for them.

Like the Bulgars after Kleidion?

Like a briish PM standing sheepishly aside while a French President threatens his country ?

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scottish Labour are like Carthaginian soldiers just before the Battle of Zama. they are led by a numpty, facing a formidable opponent, they know they're in for the shellacking of their lives.

I think it's worse than that for them.

Like the Bulgars after Kleidion?

Like a briish PM standing sheepishly aside while a French President threatens his country ?

The British public loved it.

YouGov has recorded four consecutive leads for Remain since the last published poll, suggesting a movement towards the Remain side in the first two weeks of campaigning

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/05/remain-retakes-lead-eu-referendum/

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scottish Labour are like Carthaginian soldiers just before the Battle of Zama. they are led by a numpty, facing a formidable opponent, they know they're in for the shellacking of their lives.

I think it's worse than that for them.

Like the Bulgars after Kleidion?

Like a briish PM standing sheepishly aside while a French President threatens his country ?

The British public loved it.

YouGov has recorded four consecutive leads for Remain since the last published poll, suggesting a movement towards the Remain side in the first two weeks of campaigning

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/05/remain-retakes-lead-eu-referendum/

not so much standing up for Britain as kneeling down and unzipping for Britain.

We share an aircraft carrier with the French, they are our most loyal allies.

Remember Suez, an Anglo French partnership that was so memorable to a Tory PM, granted that PM was MacMillan and not Eden

Sunil: Remember back to your early teachings. "All who gain power are afraid to lose it." Even the REMAINERS.

TSE: The REMAINERS use their power for good.

Sunil: Good is a point of view, Anakin, er, I mean TSE. The LEAVERS and the REMAINERS are similar in almost every way, including their quest for greater power.

TSE: The LEAVERS rely on their passion for their strength. They think inward, only about themselves.

Sunil: And the REMAINERS don't?

TSE: The REMAINERS are selfless... they only care about others.

Sunil: [looking a little frustrated] Did you ever hear the tragedy of Darth Smithson "the Wise"?

TSE: No.

Sunil: I thought not. It's not a story the LibDems would tell you. It's a political blogging legend. Darth Smithson was a Dark Lord of the Sith who lived many elections ago. He was so powerful and so wise that he could use the Force to influence the midichlorians to create... AV threads. He had such a knowledge of the dark side that he could even keep the ones he cared about from dying from boredom on Thursday Nights.

TSE: He could do that? He could actually save people from boring themselves to death?

Sunil: The dark side of the Force is a pathway to many policy platforms some consider to be unelectable.

TSE: What happened to him?

Sunil: He became so powerful... the only thing he was afraid of was losing his power, which eventually, of course, he did. Unfortunately, he taught his apprentice everything he knew, and then one night, his apprentice wiped his servers' hard drives while he slept. It's ironic that he could save others from obscurity, but not himself.

TSE: Is it possible to learn this power?

Sunil: Not from a LibDem...

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scottish Labour are like Carthaginian soldiers just before the Battle of Zama. they are led by a numpty, facing a formidable opponent, they know they're in for the shellacking of their lives.

I think it's worse than that for them.

Like the Bulgars after Kleidion?

Like a briish PM standing sheepishly aside while a French President threatens his country ?

The British public loved it.

YouGov has recorded four consecutive leads for Remain since the last published poll, suggesting a movement towards the Remain side in the first two weeks of campaigning

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/05/remain-retakes-lead-eu-referendum/

not so much standing up for Britain as kneeling down and unzipping for Britain.

We share an aircraft carrier with the French, they are our most loyal allies.

Remember Suez, an Anglo French partnership that was so memorable to a Tory PM, granted that PM was MacMillan and not Eden

Is that HMS Mers El Kebir ?

No, HMS Agincourt

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scottish Labour are like Carthaginian soldiers just before the Battle of Zama. they are led by a numpty, facing a formidable opponent, they know they're in for the shellacking of their lives.

I think it's worse than that for them.

Like the Bulgars after Kleidion?

Something like that. At least Zama was pretty hard-fought.

viewcode said:

FPT @Plato_Says

Plato_Says said:

She's written a corker here. Agree with every sentiment.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3476979/KATIE-HOPKINS-Did-brave-young-men-graves-Cameron-Hollande-sauntered-obscene-Somme-photocall-REALLY-die-Prime-Minister-collude-foreign-country-sell-Britain.html

Agree with the sentiment as you feel appropriate, but her assertions of facts are debatable. In the article she states that "Your [the French] countrymen have never successfully defended Paris from the Germans, a tradition you continue to this day". Paris was not taken nor fought on during World War 1. Bombed, certainly, but the same could be said of London.

Paris? It was the British Expeditionary Force wot protected the French Left Flank in August 1914!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scottish Labour are like Carthaginian soldiers just before the Battle of Zama. they are led by a numpty, facing a formidable opponent, they know they're in for the shellacking of their lives.

I think it's worse than that for them.

Like the Bulgars after Kleidion?

Like a briish PM standing sheepishly aside while a French President threatens his country ?

The British public loved it.

YouGov has recorded four consecutive leads for Remain since the last published poll, suggesting a movement towards the Remain side in the first two weeks of campaigning

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/05/remain-retakes-lead-eu-referendum/

not so much standing up for Britain as kneeling down and unzipping for Britain.

We share an aircraft carrier with the French, they are our most loyal allies.

Remember Suez, an Anglo French partnership that was so memorable to a Tory PM, granted that PM was MacMillan and not Eden

Curious consequences. Eden left UK after resigning post Suez on a cruise to New Zealand. On his ship was a young steward who he got to know, and who he encouraged in his political interests. The steward was John Prescott.

We have much for which to thank Antony Eden.

richardDodd said:

Hollande was absolutely right..there will be consequences for the UK if we leave..impossible for there not to be..anyone who thinks there wont be is a total fool. What the UK voters have to do is consider whether they are worth it..

There will also be consequences for France.

Odd our PM didn't bring that up.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

viewcode said:

FPT @Plato_Says

Plato_Says said:

She's written a corker here. Agree with every sentiment.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3476979/KATIE-HOPKINS-Did-brave-young-men-graves-Cameron-Hollande-sauntered-obscene-Somme-photocall-REALLY-die-Prime-Minister-collude-foreign-country-sell-Britain.html

Agree with the sentiment as you feel appropriate, but her assertions of facts are debatable. In the article she states that "Your [the French] countrymen have never successfully defended Paris from the Germans, a tradition you continue to this day". Paris was not taken nor fought on during World War 1. Bombed, certainly, but the same could be said of London.

Paris? It was the British Expeditionary Force wot protected the French Left Flank in August 1914!

This was during the successful defense of Paris? Which Hopkins denies ever having taken place

Hopkins may have a dodgy understanding of history but she is still right. The response of a UK PM should be how very dare you?

A new low for Cameron.

MonikerDiCanio said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scottish Labour are like Carthaginian soldiers just before the Battle of Zama. they are led by a numpty, facing a formidable opponent, they know they're in for the shellacking of their lives.

I think it's worse than that for them.

Like the Bulgars after Kleidion?

Like a briish PM standing sheepishly aside while a French President threatens his country ?

The British public loved it.

YouGov has recorded four consecutive leads for Remain since the last published poll, suggesting a movement towards the Remain side in the first two weeks of campaigning

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/05/remain-retakes-lead-eu-referendum/

not so much standing up for Britain as kneeling down and unzipping for Britain.

Cameron is nothing more than a Hollandaise sauce slurping surrender monkey. A national embarrassment and laughing stock. The sooner he's gone the better.

Ew

viewcode said:

FPT @Plato_Says

Plato_Says said:

She's written a corker here. Agree with every sentiment.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3476979/KATIE-HOPKINS-Did-brave-young-men-graves-Cameron-Hollande-sauntered-obscene-Somme-photocall-REALLY-die-Prime-Minister-collude-foreign-country-sell-Britain.html

Agree with the sentiment as you feel appropriate, but her assertions of facts are debatable. In the article she states that "Your [the French] countrymen have never successfully defended Paris from the Germans, a tradition you continue to this day". Paris was not taken nor fought on during World War 1. Bombed, certainly, but the same could be said of London.

A pretty shabby smear job. The Mail continues in its mucky furrow.
Also announced at the meeting was that we the UK would be helping airlift support for French troops in peacekeeping operations in africa. The French also announced interest in buying the UK Brimstone missile. As well as the more widely announced co-operation to build an advanced pilotless plane.
The meeting marked the beginning of Somme commemorations. No doubt sneering snobbish commentators egged on by a clearly ignorant public will want to underplay the French role in this but it was nonetheless significant.

Dr. Foxinsox, it was Lutetia under the Romans. One presumes it must've been claimed by the Visigoths and then the Franks.

And using war graves as a prop.

I'm just offended on so many levels.

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Hopkins may have a dodgy understanding of history but she is still right. The response of a UK PM should be how very dare you?

A new low for Cameron.

fraid so.

I generally give Cameron the benefit of the doubt but having a foreign leader threaten his own people looks like something you'd expect from a banana republic dictator.

richardDodd said:

Hollande was absolutely right..there will be consequences for the UK if we leave..impossible for there not to be..anyone who thinks there wont be is a total fool. What the UK voters have to do is consider whether they are worth it..

It's a truism. But, it sounded like Hollande was threatening the UK, and Cameron seemed happy for him to be threatening the UK.

On balance, I think Project Fear will work, but the danger for Remain is that they will come over as being unpatriotic if they emphasise how powerless we are when foreigners want to do nasty things to us.

foxinsoxuk said:

OldKingCole said:

viewcode said:

FPT @Plato_Says

Plato_Says said:

She's written a corker here. Agree with every sentiment.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3476979/KATIE-HOPKINS-Did-brave-young-men-graves-Cameron-Hollande-sauntered-obscene-Somme-photocall-REALLY-die-Prime-Minister-collude-foreign-country-sell-Britain.html

Agree with the sentiment as you feel appropriate, but her assertions of facts are debatable. In the article she states that "Your [the French] countrymen have never successfully defended Paris from the Germans, a tradition you continue to this day". Paris was not taken nor fought on during World War 1. Bombed, certainly, but the same could be said of London.

Before WWII Paris hadn’t actually been “taken” had it since 1815 when Napoleon was defeated by a British/German alliance at Waterloo?

Apart from 1940, 1815 and 1813 has Paris ever been captured by a foreign power?

foxinsoxuk said:

OldKingCole said:

viewcode said:

FPT @Plato_Says

Plato_Says said:

She's written a corker here. Agree with every sentiment.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3476979/KATIE-HOPKINS-Did-brave-young-men-graves-Cameron-Hollande-sauntered-obscene-Somme-photocall-REALLY-die-Prime-Minister-collude-foreign-country-sell-Britain.html

Agree with the sentiment as you feel appropriate, but her assertions of facts are debatable. In the article she states that "Your [the French] countrymen have never successfully defended Paris from the Germans, a tradition you continue to this day". Paris was not taken nor fought on during World War 1. Bombed, certainly, but the same could be said of London.

Before WWII Paris hadn’t actually been “taken” had it since 1815 when Napoleon was defeated by a British/German alliance at Waterloo?

Apart from 1940, 1815 and 1813 has Paris ever been captured by a foreign power?

well there was that time in the 15th Century when the english actually owned the place.

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

viewcode said:

FPT @Plato_Says

Plato_Says said:

She's written a corker here. Agree with every sentiment.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3476979/KATIE-HOPKINS-Did-brave-young-men-graves-Cameron-Hollande-sauntered-obscene-Somme-photocall-REALLY-die-Prime-Minister-collude-foreign-country-sell-Britain.html

Agree with the sentiment as you feel appropriate, but her assertions of facts are debatable. In the article she states that "Your [the French] countrymen have never successfully defended Paris from the Germans, a tradition you continue to this day". Paris was not taken nor fought on during World War 1. Bombed, certainly, but the same could be said of London.

Before WWII Paris hadn’t actually been “taken” had it since 1815 when Napoleon was defeated by a British/German alliance at Waterloo?

Captured by the Prussians in 1871.

Ah yes. Quite right.

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

viewcode said:

FPT @Plato_Says

Plato_Says said:

She's written a corker here. Agree with every sentiment.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3476979/KATIE-HOPKINS-Did-brave-young-men-graves-Cameron-Hollande-sauntered-obscene-Somme-photocall-REALLY-die-Prime-Minister-collude-foreign-country-sell-Britain.html

Agree with the sentiment as you feel appropriate, but her assertions of facts are debatable. In the article she states that "Your [the French] countrymen have never successfully defended Paris from the Germans, a tradition you continue to this day". Paris was not taken nor fought on during World War 1. Bombed, certainly, but the same could be said of London.

Paris? It was the British Expeditionary Force wot protected the French Left Flank in August 1914!

This was during the successful defense of Paris? Which Hopkins denies ever having taken place

The French could not defend Paris.... on their own.

Are the Scots Nats still celebrating hegemony 2016? I like a hootenanny as much as the next man but isn't this a bit ridiculous.

Sean_F said:

richardDodd said:

Hollande was absolutely right..there will be consequences for the UK if we leave..impossible for there not to be..anyone who thinks there wont be is a total fool. What the UK voters have to do is consider whether they are worth it..

It's a truism. But, it sounded like Hollande was threatening the UK, and Cameron seemed happy for him to be threatening the UK.

On balance, I think Project Fear will work, but the danger for Remain is that they will come over as being unpatriotic if they emphasise how powerless we are when foreigners want to do nasty things to us.

The purpose of the meeting amongst other things was to discuss all sorts of military co-operation. The point being made I would have thought was obvious.

flightpath01 said:

Sean_F said:

foxinsoxuk said:

OldKingCole said:

viewcode said:

FPT @Plato_Says

Plato_Says said:

She's written a corker here. Agree with every sentiment.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3476979/KATIE-HOPKINS-Did-brave-young-men-graves-Cameron-Hollande-sauntered-obscene-Somme-photocall-REALLY-die-Prime-Minister-collude-foreign-country-sell-Britain.html

Agree with the sentiment as you feel appropriate, but her assertions of facts are debatable. In the article she states that "Your [the French] countrymen have never successfully defended Paris from the Germans, a tradition you continue to this day". Paris was not taken nor fought on during World War 1. Bombed, certainly, but the same could be said of London.

Before WWII Paris hadn’t actually been “taken” had it since 1815 when Napoleon was defeated by a British/German alliance at Waterloo?

Apart from 1940, 1815 and 1813 has Paris ever been captured by a foreign power?

The English held it from 1422-1435.

Arguably (I know not strictly correctly) Napoleon in 1815 was overthrown from within and he was thrown out of Paris, in the manner of Louis XVIII a few weeks earlier, rather than Paris invaded or surrendered. Davout recalled the King.

Its worth remembering the impact of the Franco Prussian war when considering the French psychology.

Also captured by the Russians and Prussians and Austrians in 1814. A year before the Hundred Days

flightpath01 said:

Sean_F said:

foxinsoxuk said:

OldKingCole said:

viewcode said:

FPT @Plato_Says

Plato_Says said:

She's written a corker here. Agree with every sentiment.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3476979/KATIE-HOPKINS-Did-brave-young-men-graves-Cameron-Hollande-sauntered-obscene-Somme-photocall-REALLY-die-Prime-Minister-collude-foreign-country-sell-Britain.html

Agree with the sentiment as you feel appropriate, but her assertions of facts are debatable. In the article she states that "Your [the French] countrymen have never successfully defended Paris from the Germans, a tradition you continue to this day". Paris was not taken nor fought on during World War 1. Bombed, certainly, but the same could be said of London.

Before WWII Paris hadn’t actually been “taken” had it since 1815 when Napoleon was defeated by a British/German alliance at Waterloo?

Apart from 1940, 1815 and 1813 has Paris ever been captured by a foreign power?

The English held it from 1422-1435.

Arguably (I know not strictly correctly) Napoleon in 1815 was overthrown from within and he was thrown out of Paris, in the manner of Louis XVIII a few weeks earlier, rather than Paris invaded or surrendered. Davout recalled the King.

Its worth remembering the impact of the Franco Prussian war when considering the French psychology.

Yes they lost to a team with half the germans.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Apart from 1973(!), when was London last captured by a foreign power?

1688.

(Tiptoes out of the room, tick, tick, tick...)

'Paris was not taken nor fought on during World War 1'

But it would have been had we not sacrificed countless lives to prevent that.

Not that they are remotely grateful - for that or being liberated in 1944/5. Indeed, I think they resent it.

Does Wayback Machine have them?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12184405/Jeremy-Corbyn-accused-of-rewriting-history-after-deleting-hundreds-of-outspoken-articles-and-speeches-from-his-website.html

richardDodd said:

Hollande was absolutely right..there will be consequences for the UK if we leave..impossible for there not to be..anyone who thinks there wont be is a total fool. What the UK voters have to do is consider whether they are worth it..

you going native doddery

Ex-Trump, Cruz is really owning these primary polls, even Michigan, which ought to be not his place. Is Rubio done, done?

runnymede said:

'Paris was not taken nor fought on during World War 1'

But it would have been had we not sacrificed countless lives to prevent that.

Not that they are remotely grateful - for that or being liberated in 1944/5. Indeed, I think they resent it.

Most French people I know, especially the older ones, are enormously grateful for the help they received from both the British and the Americans.

'Most French people I know, especially the older ones, are enormously grateful for the help they received from both the British and the Americans.'

No doubt experiences vary, but I worked for a French firm for five years and got a very different impression. The contrast with the attitudes I've experienced in the Netherlands, Scandinavia and (perhaps surprisingly) eastern Europe was a strong one.

But my comment was in any case more about 'official' opinion than the opinions of ordinary folk.

Well done, Sir.

RoyalBlue said:

Just got back from 2 hours of leafleting for Vote Leave. It started chucking it down so I went home early, then as soon as I get home the sun comes out! Typical...

EPG said:

Ex-Trump, Cruz is really owning these primary polls, even Michigan, which ought to be not his place. Is Rubio done, done?

FL is the last stand.

Richard_Nabavi said:

The anti-Cameron nonsense here (and, to be fair, in the Mail and Telegraph sometimes) is stark, raving, 100%, fruitcake-rich, bonkers.

It really is. Even as someone who's leaning leave, the foaming at the mouth whenever the EU is mentioned is pretty off-putting.

Afternoon everyone.
I've spent the last few hours watching the first 6 episodes of House of Cards.
Think it is very good so far.