politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The impact of the EURef on next CON leader betting

Indigo said:

Okay you have had your smart arse point score, now answer the question.

Plato_Says said:

FarmersForBritain
The popular media assumption that UK farmers will lose all subsidies if we leave the EU is purely speculation and has no basis in fact.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Indigo said:

How much of the renegotiation has to survive before we decide we have been sold a up.

Legal opinions seem to feel that the emergency brake has a very high chance of being challenged at the ECJ almost immediately, what would be our position if that was shot down but the rest of the "deal" survived for the time being.

Since the Leave side have tied themselves in knots telling us that the renegotiation achieved exactly nothing, whether it unravels or not is irrelevant, surely? They can't have it both ways.

At any other point in their history, Labour would have revelled in this Tory-on-Tory chair-flinging. But I’m not sure they really enjoyed it. It only made them look all the more irrelevant.

“Last week I was in Brussels,” burbled Jeremy Corbyn, “meeting European leaders. And one of them said to me…”

“‘Who are you?’” supplied Christopher Pincher (Con, Tamworth).

It was 35 seconds – seriously, I timed it – before the Tory mirth died down.

It’s a remarkable achievement. Even when senior Tories are openly savaging each other on the floor of the Commons, Jeremy Corbyn still manages to end up the butt of the joke.

taffys said:

Sean_F said:

JackW said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

Plato_Says said:

Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out

He was the future once .... according to himself.

Soames was so right on Afriyie

The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"

For anyone looking for the causes of a great Conservative split just look at the attitude of the toadying supporters of Cameron. They do Cameron no favours. It is the people with more balance that Cameron should listen to.

Nicholas Soames as Mr Toad .... it certainly doesn't require a leap of faith.

Nicholas Soames is Baron Harkonnen from Dune.

Surely Jabba the Soames?

Indigo said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Indigo said:

Okay you have had your smart arse point score, now answer the question.

My smart-arse point is the political reality. We're not going to be holding a second referendum in the foreseeable future.

Which means it doesnt matter if the deal lasts ten minutes or not, if we are committed for the next decade anyway.

Alistair said:

I still make a profit on a Jeb Bush nomination

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hollande has invited Corbyn to the Élysée Palace following meeting last week, source says.

Indigo said:

and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?

Plato_Says said:

I've tried getting in touch with his home and work email addresses.

I fear he may be no longer with us. We were pretty good friends.

TwistedFireStopper said:

Fenster said:

Is Financier on that list of top business people?

Where is he these days? Maybe he's gone bust?

Casino_Royale said:

@TSE - you're letting Project Fear get the better of you, and going all gaylord ponceyboots.

You'll kick yourself if we Remain and this deal turns out to be meaningless for the City, which I suspect it will be.

As you said, this country has a fantastic future whether we're in or out. I think if Leave the world is our oyster.

Sean_F said:

JackW said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

Plato_Says said:

Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out

He was the future once .... according to himself.

Soames was so right on Afriyie

The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"

For anyone looking for the causes of a great Conservative split just look at the attitude of the toadying supporters of Cameron. They do Cameron no favours. It is the people with more balance that Cameron should listen to.

Nicholas Soames as Mr Toad .... it certainly doesn't require a leap of faith.

Nicholas Soames is Baron Harkonnen from Dune.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Indigo said:

and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?

Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?

As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.

JackW said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

And here's another one of her positively grinning: http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/News/Areas/Maidenhead/Competition-to-design-Theresa-Mays-christmas-card-closes-tomorrow-11112015.htm

You've been saving these pictures ...

Charles said:

FrankBooth said:

Charles said:

Plato_Says said:

FarmersForBritain
The popular media assumption that UK farmers will lose all subsidies if we leave the EU is purely speculation and has no basis in fact.

Indeed, we will be able to design a subsidy regime (if we see fit) that suits the needs of our farmers, not French farmers

Are you one of those Tories who likes to defend certain producer interests? Cheering Maggie when she tried to suppress Salmonella?

Not particularly.

I believe there is a case for subsidies for marginal farming communities (e.g. hill farming) because I believe there are environmental and community benefits, and because otherwise we'd end up with depopulation. But that's driven by positive externalities rather than producer interests.

I don't believe that there are grounds for subsidising agribusinesses that are perfectly capable of competing efficiently in a free market.

But, unfortunately, the CAP doesn't work for us. My Mum used to get loads of dosh to grow wildflowers in her meadows. The fact that she preferred to grow wildflowers vs. actually have to work the land wasn't a factor in the government's mind.

I don't recall enough of the salmonella issue to comment specifically on the UK policy at the time. But I would note that live and, increasingly live attenuated, salmonella vaccines are seen as market standard in most developed markets. Food safety is a big issue, and one that we should address seriously.

GarethoftheVale2 said:

JackW said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

And here's another one of her positively grinning: http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/News/Areas/Maidenhead/Competition-to-design-Theresa-Mays-christmas-card-closes-tomorrow-11112015.htm

You've been saving these pictures ...

No I live in Maidenhead now and read the Advertiser to see what local trivia (there's little real news here) they can come up with.

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I can't imagine why the President of France would get on well with the UK hating Jeremy Corbyn

The obvious reason would be that he doesn't want Brexit and that Corbyn being less than enthusiastic about staying in isn't helping. I wouldn't be surprised if Merkel or even Cameron weren't in on it. Given Hollande is a socialist, at least by name, perhaps he's seen as the best person to do some arm-twisting.

Indigo said:

Your argument appears to be that substance of the deal is beside the point, so long as it provides a means to get people to vote for Remain, and if it subsequently gets scrapped by the ECJ, or voted down by the European Parliament then thats life - its a view I suppose, but you better get used to sharing the green benches with the kippers if it happens.

Plato_Says said:

I've lived next to farmyards for decades, none of these family run farmers want CAP.

They want to act as small businesses, not receivers of form filling subsidises.

Charles said:

FrankBooth said:

Charles said:

Plato_Says said:

FarmersForBritain
The popular media assumption that UK farmers will lose all subsidies if we leave the EU is purely speculation and has no basis in fact.

Indeed, we will be able to design a subsidy regime (if we see fit) that suits the needs of our farmers, not French farmers

Are you one of those Tories who likes to defend certain producer interests? Cheering Maggie when she tried to suppress Salmonella?

Not particularly.

I believe there is a case for subsidies for marginal farming communities (e.g. hill farming) because I believe there are environmental and community benefits, and because otherwise we'd end up with depopulation. But that's driven by positive externalities rather than producer interests.

I don't believe that there are grounds for subsidising agribusinesses that are perfectly capable of competing efficiently in a free market.

But, unfortunately, the CAP doesn't work for us. My Mum used to get loads of dosh to grow wildflowers in her meadows. The fact that she preferred to grow wildflowers vs. actually have to work the land wasn't a factor in the government's mind.

I don't recall enough of the salmonella issue to comment specifically on the UK policy at the time. But I would note that live and, increasingly live attenuated, salmonella vaccines are seen as market standard in most developed markets. Food safety is a big issue, and one that we should address seriously.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Shadow chancellor John McDonnell is under fire after employing a former Momentum and Green Party staffer to work in his office.

Joe Ryle helped organise for activist group Momentum in London, where some MPs fear it is behind attempts to deselect them.

He also played an active role in aviation campaign group Plane Stupid, with whom he was arrested after a protest at Stansted Airport.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/shadow-chancellor-john-mcdonnell-under-fire-for-employing-momentum-and-plane-stupid-activist-a3186991.html

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

Jim Mellon is a guy that I hugely respect. He's a tremendously savvy businessman

Cough.

BRICs.

(Actually I agree with you, but exactly the same argument he has been using to trash FTSE100 chief execs applies to his record).

Charles said:

(two can play that game)

Indigo said:

runnymede said:

If a deal got shredded a new Prime Minister would just bring forward the legislative changes needed to annul the treaty of the european union

I think you mean 'could', not would. There is zero chance that would happen IMO, unless UKIP win the next GE.

The Kippers wont win the GE, however if it all falls apart and Cameron has continued with his lyingoverselling I can see a chunk of the Tory party peel off and join Farage's merry band. Boost the kipper vote over 20% at the next GE and things start to get interesting. It not going to be rugby rules, there is going to be bucket loads of bitterness and recriminations - hopes of pulling the party together afterwards appear to be fading, notice the number of members that skipped Cameron at the '22 last night.

Charles said:

taffys said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Indigo said:

and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?

Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?

As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.

http://www.cityam.com/235154/britain-should-vote-for-brexit-before-the-inevitable-eurozone-meltdown

I'm not saying I agree with this guy but you can appreciate how your assertion the uncertainties are bigger on the leave side can easily be challenged.

Jim Mellon is a guy that I hugely respect. He's a tremendously savvy businessman

Charles said:

May be you read a different article to me?

He doesn't mention BRICs at all, but puts more weight on the views of entrepreneurs and business builders than those of managers of MNCs.

He also suggests that Italy and France haven't resolved their structural issues and that when they go pop it is better that we are out than in. France I agree with; Italy less convinced by.

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

taffys said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Indigo said:

and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?

Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?

As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.

http://www.cityam.com/235154/britain-should-vote-for-brexit-before-the-inevitable-eurozone-meltdown

I'm not saying I agree with this guy but you can appreciate how your assertion the uncertainties are bigger on the leave side can easily be challenged.

Jim Mellon is a guy that I hugely respect. He's a tremendously savvy businessman

Last time I saw Jim (last year) he was banging the table about how you needed to buy the Euro as it was massively undervalued.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

May be you read a different article to me?

He doesn't mention BRICs at all, but puts more weight on the views of entrepreneurs and business builders than those of managers of MNCs.

He also suggests that Italy and France haven't resolved their structural issues and that when they go pop it is better that we are out than in. France I agree with; Italy less convinced by.

I was referring to an interview on the radio where he was trashing the FTSE chief execs' letter on the grounds that their share prices hadn't performed well since 1999.

Whilst I don't disagree with some of his points in the CityAM article, a year ago he was advocating investing in the Eurozone:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/11480957/Jim-Mellon-Now-is-the-time-for-Britons-to-buy-European-property.html

Charles said:

taffys said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Indigo said:

and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?

Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?

As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.

http://www.cityam.com/235154/britain-should-vote-for-brexit-before-the-inevitable-eurozone-meltdown

I'm not saying I agree with this guy but you can appreciate how your assertion the uncertainties are bigger on the leave side can easily be challenged.

Jim Mellon is a guy that I hugely respect. He's a tremendously savvy businessman

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eek, the problem being the engine is a Honda?

I believe an upgraded version will be in place for the second test. Could be wrong.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Indigo said:

and conversely if we Remain and the deal turns out to be not worth the paper it is printed on ?

Then that's tough, although as I said, from the media coverage of the alleged paucity of the deal, why should it matter?

As I've said many times, there is no absolute certainty about the future. We have to make a decision factoring in the uncertainties. But clearly, the uncertainties on the Leave side are massively bigger. We don't even know what we'd be trying to achieve, let alone how it would pan out.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

Buying property is not the same as investing in the Eurozone.

It's worse, because you can't exit easily.

NorfolkTilIDie said:

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I can't imagine why the President of France would get on well with the UK hating Jeremy Corbyn

The obvious reason would be that he doesn't want Brexit and that Corbyn being less than enthusiastic about staying in isn't helping. I wouldn't be surprised if Merkel or even Cameron weren't in on it. Given Hollande is a socialist, at least by name, perhaps he's seen as the best person to do some arm-twisting.

Hollande can always point out that the Eurozone now has the ability to hammer the City of London, banks and hedge funds alike. That would be compelling to Corbyn.

NorfolkTilIDie said:

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I can't imagine why the President of France would get on well with the UK hating Jeremy Corbyn

The obvious reason would be that he doesn't want Brexit and that Corbyn being less than enthusiastic about staying in isn't helping. I wouldn't be surprised if Merkel or even Cameron weren't in on it. Given Hollande is a socialist, at least by name, perhaps he's seen as the best person to do some arm-twisting.

Hollande can always point out that the Eurozone now has the ability to hammer the City of London, banks and hedge funds alike. That would be compelling to Corbyn.