politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The impact of the EURef on next CON leader betting
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Chris PincherTwistedFireStopper said:Who was the wag who shouted "Who are you? " at Corbyn yesterday? That was probably the funniest thing I've ever seen in the house of commons. Pure comedy genius.
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Did you mention pensions?Alanbrooke said:
when those big baby seal pup eyes look up at you........ and then you think of your pension.rcs1000 said:
In that you'd like to club him to death?Alanbrooke said:
I find Osbone very clubbableJackW said:
I'd agree save one point.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ahem.CornishBlue said:I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.
Theresa May.
Obvious, innit?
(Assuming a Remain result, of course)
May does at times exude a somewhat sour disposition. I'm not intimating that she adopt a forced Blair smile but the ability to empathize, genuine or not, smile and appear more clubbable would go a long way.
Clearly a long stint at the Home Office does not enhance the chuckle muscles but even "The Great She Elephant" was often amused and showed it whilst retaining the nuclear handbag for necessary chastisement of the errant faithful and non believers.
Look who's planning to dip into them again.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3457362/George-Osborne-planning-4BILLION-raid-middle-class-pensioners-scrapping-tax-free-lump-sums.html0 -
I've tried getting in touch with his home and work email addresses.
I fear he may be no longer with us. We were pretty good friends.TwistedFireStopper said:
Where is he these days? Maybe he's gone bust?Fenster said:Is Financier on that list of top business people?
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I see that analogy. If Cameron wins, one of the loony outers will take it so badly they'll shoot him.tlg86 said:
During Portillo's US railroad trip he talked about the US Civil War, and it occurred to me that the black slaves who fled to the North were taking a risk. Perhaps they should stuck to what they knew?TheScreamingEagles said:
Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss inMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.
Nigel Farage = Jefferson Davis?
Question is who is Ulysses S Grant?0 -
Chortle ....Charles said:
Bit like a baby seal?Alanbrooke said:
I find Osbone very clubbableJackW said:
I'd agree save one point.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ahem.CornishBlue said:I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.
Theresa May.
Obvious, innit?
(Assuming a Remain result, of course)
May does at times exude a somewhat sour disposition. I'm not intimating that she adopt a forced Blair smile but the ability to empathize, genuine or not, smile and appear more clubbable would go a long way.
Clearly a long stint at the Home Office does not enhance the chuckle muscles but even "The Great She Elephant" was often amused and showed it whilst retaining the nuclear handbag for necessary chastisement of the errant faithful and non believers.
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turnip ! :-)TheScreamingEagles said:
You're like a Scot Nat. If we have independence, we will force the rest of the U.K. into a currency union.Alanbrooke said:
maybe if but yaddaTheScreamingEagles said:
If we don't have favourable access to the single market then maybe.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, you think we won't have a pot to piss in if we leave the EU? Really?
your arguments are less coherent than Boris'
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Wonder how many days in a row the BBC can lead with the risks / leap in the dark style headlines on a potential EU exit?0
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The Nabavi take on the Betfair PM after Cameron market. (In each case I've given the best odds to back, although some of the amounts available are piddling. I've not bothered with all of the Labour no-hopers):
Osborne 4.3 About right
Boris 3.85 Far too short
Corbyn 15.5 Are they completely mad?
Javid 18.5 Too short
May 13.5 Very good value
Hunt 30.0 Too short
Benn 22 Bonkers
Nandy 70.0 Daft
David Miliband 32.0 You cannot be serious!
Dan Jarvis 28.0 Bonkers
Hammond 40.0 A bit long
Michael Gove 20.0 About right
Paterson 130.0 Possible good-value long-shot
Liz Truss 140.0 Possible good-value long-shot
Nicky Morgan 160.0 A bit short
Priti Patel 22.0 Too short
Michael Fallon 200.0 Meh
Justine Greening 200.0 Possible good-value long-shot0 -
"Big firms warn EU exit threatens jobs" says the BBC news front headline, about the letter in the Times.
Amongst those "big firms" are - as well as the aforementioned pub landlord - the following (who should all be given a Queens Award for Self-Publicitiy):
Waterloo Tea Limited (10 employees)
True Bridge Consultancy (3 employees)
The Prof's Tuition (4 employees)
Kendall Contracting (4 employees)
The Green Stationery Company (3 employees)
VIP Labels (2 employees)
and my personal fav -
Two Guys from Brussels (2 employees)
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There's a reason why the legal profession is such a high paying industry, people respect us for our commendable honesty and integrity.Alanbrooke said:
spoken like a lawyerTheScreamingEagles said:
Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss inMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.
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Miss Plato, I'm sorry to hear that. Mr. Financier was a sound fellow.
Mr. Eagles, and if they do?
That also neglects the importance of being able to govern ourselves, and hold those who pass laws over us to account (which cannot be done with the ECJ, or QMV). You're weighing one possible downside more heavily than a positive certainty which is (in my view) greater still.0 -
Mr. Urquhart, the vote's around 4 months away, so I'd say 120, give or take.0
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Same applies with NATO, the unelected could take us into a war we oppose.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, I'm sorry to hear that. Mr. Financier was a sound fellow.
Mr. Eagles, and if they do?
That also neglects the importance of being able to govern ourselves, and hold those who pass laws over us to account (which cannot be done with the ECJ, or QMV). You're weighing one possible downside more heavily than a positive certainty which is (in my view) greater still.0 -
Nah it's the price of social ostracism, it's like if paedos could charge.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a reason why the legal profession is such a high paying industry, people respect us for our commendable honesty and integrity.Alanbrooke said:
spoken like a lawyerTheScreamingEagles said:
Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss inMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.
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Who are surprisingly two guys from Brussels...Frankly if they would have been better to have just used 100 good sized firms, than anybody with a pulse to make it to 200...MarqueeMark said:
Two Guys from Brussels (2 employees)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYMf3R1JA68
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That's an absolutely outrageous slur. Gary Glitter and the ghost of Jimmy Savile will be suing you.Alanbrooke said:
Nah it's the price of social ostracism, it's like if paedos could charge.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a reason why the legal profession is such a high paying industry, people respect us for our commendable honesty and integrity.Alanbrooke said:
spoken like a lawyerTheScreamingEagles said:
Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss inMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.
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they're probably better lawyersTheScreamingEagles said:
That's an absolutely outrageous slur. Gary Glitter and the ghost of Jimmy Savile will be suing you.Alanbrooke said:
Nah it's the price of social ostracism, it's like if paedos could charge.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a reason why the legal profession is such a high paying industry, people respect us for our commendable honesty and integrity.Alanbrooke said:
spoken like a lawyerTheScreamingEagles said:
Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss inMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.
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The interesting thing is when the decline occurred. The link from the tweet back to the university web site reveals that standards fell between the 1960s and 90s but have been stable since then.
http://www.lboro.ac.uk/news-events/news/2016/february/maths-a-level-standards.htmlPlato_Says said:Loughborough study finds today's grade B is equivalent to a 1960s grade E #alevel #maths: https://t.co/eJjGyALp1R https://t.co/lwW9TBQCOj
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TwistedFireStopper said:
Where is he these days? Maybe he's gone bust?Fenster said:Is Financier on that list of top business people?
Running Enron, last I heard LOL 0 -
Don't disagree. She just needs to burnish her presentation skills somewhat.Wanderer said:
Interesting. I think May has a rather charming smile when she uses it in interviews. You're right that she often doesn't use it.JackW said:
I'd agree save one point.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ahem.CornishBlue said:I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.
Theresa May.
Obvious, innit?
(Assuming a Remain result, of course)
May does at times exude a somewhat sour disposition. I'm not intimating that she adopt a forced Blair smile but the ability to empathize, genuine or not, smile and appear more clubbable would go a long way.
Clearly a long stint at the Home Office does not enhance the chuckle muscles but even "The Great She Elephant" was often amused and showed it whilst retaining the nuclear handbag for necessary chastisement of the errant faithful and non believers.
Imo (and this is just a hunch) she would connect very well with swing voters who would find her reasonable and reassuring. She would also provide a change in style from Cameron without herself appearing weird or extreme.
I also believe her spell at the home office has necessarily hardened her to the realities of both high office and the dangerous world we live in.
On balance I think she is the best candidate to succeed Cameron.0 -
His view is the EU have handled the Eurozone/Greek and Immigrant crisises very badly, they will deal with Brexit just as badly.TheScreamingEagles said:
The most likely (and most rational) outcome is that they will, but you can't guarantee it as it will be the result of a negotiationCharles said:
John, my friend and his colleagues have analysed the protections for the City of London/The Financial Services industry.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ooh, you are awful.....JohnO said:
which way are you swinging Mr O ?Alanbrooke said:
By all accounts (I accept we here will never know) he had transmitted pretty strong assurances to Cameron that he would support Remain, but then ratted at theJohnO said:
I'm never been a paricular Boris fan but why exactly did he behave appallingly. Was it because he ruined the PMs carefully choreographed stage show at the weekend? Like Boris was I'm still on the fence in this debate but overt control freakery is something that never appeals.Norm said:
I imagine David Davis must be feeling a bit sour having lost the crown of Tory Shit of the Decade to Boris.JohnO said:
"A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.AlastairMeeks said:Plato_Says said:http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/
At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the him.
Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
Back to Remain.
They've concluded they aren't robust as they'd like, and reliant on others in the EU rather than us having a veto/protection.
HOWEVER, all things considered they will be recommending me and others vote Remain, as Leave have yet to even address if we'll still have access to all the advantages of access to the single market/the financial passport.
p.s you mean @Cyclefree was right yesterday. Now there's a surprise
Plus they might harsh on us in the exit terms to stop others leaving. pour encourager les autres
We've got to keep in with them because they're both incompetent and malicious?
It's a view I suppose.0 -
Theresa May would be objectively the best choice for the Conservatives if they are looking to appeal to the wider electorate. The evidence that they are thinking about that aspect of the job at all is lacking.JackW said:
Don't disagree. She just needs to burnish her presentation skills somewhat.Wanderer said:
Interesting. I think May has a rather charming smile when she uses it in interviews. You're right that she often doesn't use it.JackW said:
I'd agree save one point.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ahem.CornishBlue said:I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.
Theresa May.
Obvious, innit?
(Assuming a Remain result, of course)
May does at times exude a somewhat sour disposition. I'm not intimating that she adopt a forced Blair smile but the ability to empathize, genuine or not, smile and appear more clubbable would go a long way.
Clearly a long stint at the Home Office does not enhance the chuckle muscles but even "The Great She Elephant" was often amused and showed it whilst retaining the nuclear handbag for necessary chastisement of the errant faithful and non believers.
Imo (and this is just a hunch) she would connect very well with swing voters who would find her reasonable and reassuring. She would also provide a change in style from Cameron without herself appearing weird or extreme.
I also believe her spell at the home office has necessarily hardened her to the realities of both high office and the dangerous world we live in.
On balance I think she is the best candidate to succeed Cameron.0 -
Lord Ashcroft on the state of play:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/02/has-the-renegotiation-done-more-to-boost-remain-or-leave/0 -
Thanks for that. My position is quite in line with that (not entirely coincidentally since I followed your advice on Paterson and one or two others).Richard_Nabavi said:The Nabavi take on the Betfair PM after Cameron market. (In each case I've given the best odds to back, although some of the amounts available are piddling. I've not bothered with all of the Labour no-hopers):
Osborne 4.3 About right
Boris 3.85 Far too short
Corbyn 15.5 Are they completely mad?
Javid 18.5 Too short
May 13.5 Very good value
Hunt 30.0 Too short
Benn 22 Bonkers
Nandy 70.0 Daft
David Miliband 32.0 You cannot be serious!
Dan Jarvis 28.0 Bonkers
Hammond 40.0 A bit long
Michael Gove 20.0 About right
Paterson 130.0 Possible good-value long-shot
Liz Truss 140.0 Possible good-value long-shot
Nicky Morgan 160.0 A bit short
Priti Patel 22.0 Too short
Michael Fallon 200.0 Meh
Justine Greening 200.0 Possible good-value long-shot0 -
It's risible, but the 24hr media just accept press releases far to often.MarqueeMark said:
"Big firms warn EU exit threatens jobs" says the BBC news front headline, about the letter in the Times.
Amongst those "big firms" are - as well as the aforementioned pub landlord - the following (who should all be given a Queens Award for Self-Publicitiy):
Waterloo Tea Limited (10 employees)
True Bridge Consultancy (3 employees)
The Prof's Tuition (4 employees)
Kendall Contracting (4 employees)
The Green Stationery Company (3 employees)
VIP Labels (2 employees)
and my personal fav -
Two Guys from Brussels (2 employees)0 -
Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out0 -
Is the cost of access to the single market.Sean_F said:
We've got to keep in with them because they're both incompetent and malicious?TheScreamingEagles said:
His view is the EU have handled the Eurozone/Greek and Immigrant crisises very badly, they will deal with Brexit just as badly.Charles said:
The most likely (and most rational) outcome is that they will, but you can't guarantee it as it will be the result of a negotiationTheScreamingEagles said:
John, my friend and his colleagues have analysed the protections for the City of London/The Financial Services industry.JohnO said:
Ooh, you are awful.....Alanbrooke said:
which way are you swinging Mr O ?JohnO said:
I'm never been a paricular Boris fan but why exactly did he behave appallingly. Was it because he ruined the PMs carefully choreographed stage show at the weekend? Like Boris was I'm still on the fence in this debate but overt control freakery is somethingeNorm said:
I imagine David Davis must be feeling a bit sour having lost the crown of Tory Shit of the Decade to Boris.JohnO said:
"A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.AlastairMeeks said:Plato_Says said:http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/
At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the him.
Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
Back to Remain.
They've concluded they aren't robust as they'd like, and reliant on others in the EU rather than us having a veto/protection.
HOWEVER, all things considered they will be recommending me and others vote Remain, as Leave have yet to even address if we'll still have access to all the advantages of access to the single market/the financial passport.
p.s you mean @Cyclefree was right yesterday. Now there's a surprise
Plus they might harsh on us in the exit terms to stop others leaving. pour encourager les autres
It's a view I suppose.
Some see that as a price worth paying.0 -
Nah, she has the charisma of a speak-your-weight machine, and is never going to be forgiven for her "nasty party" remarks.JohnO said:
Yes, never really a fan of hers but there's plenty worse!Richard_Nabavi said:
Ahem.CornishBlue said:I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.
Theresa May.
Obvious, innit?
(Assuming a Remain result, of course)
(Not to mention she talks complete totalitarian bollocks on Cyber Security)
(And talks big on reducing immigration and then doesn't)0 -
Worth reposting I think...among the PM's list of top business people supporting the EU
Waterloo Tea Limited (10 employees)
True Bridge Consultancy (3 employees)
The Prof's Tuition (4 employees)
Kendall Contracting (4 employees)
The Green Stationery Company (3 employees)
VIP Labels (2 employees)
and my personal fav -
Two Guys from Brussels (2 employees)
The sound of a barrel being scraped is deafening. Are these some of his wife's chums he rang up on Sunday afternoon to make up the numbers?
Perhaps I should do a straw poll of the various tradespeople I use and get their views...I'm pretty sure Tony the stonemason is for LEAVE, and Eric the roofer...
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LOL! There *are* more unpopular professions than the legal profession. Not many, but they do exist.Alanbrooke said:
Nah it's the price of social ostracism, it's like if paedos could charge.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a reason why the legal profession is such a high paying industry, people respect us for our commendable honesty and integrity.Alanbrooke said:
spoken like a lawyerTheScreamingEagles said:
Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss inMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.
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"A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.AlastairMeeks said:Plato_Says said:http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/
At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the party that the referendum debate is already getting so personal.
One Outer who likes Cameron observes sadly that ‘he was silly letting his temper show but it was sadly typical. He finds being challenged irksome’. Cameron probably also feels that the Mayor was a bit of a tease right up to the last minute, whereupon he humiliated him.
Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
Bullies often are wimps when faced with people stronger than they are. A case against the PM is that he is very effective in the Commons against weak and unprepared opponents (Milliband, Corbyn, Boris yesterday) but less so when negotiating with those better prepared than him.
The skills needed for effective and caustic put downs in a debating chamber are not the skills needed for patient, effective, tenacious negotiations on often opaque detail. Cameron has the former. It is not at all clear that he has the latter.
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But we are in the middle of the nervous breakdown. After the catharsis of the referendum (especially if it's a reasonably clear Remain result), things will look very different. It's a cardinal mistake to think that the choice will be made on the emotions of yesterday.AlastairMeeks said:Theresa May would be objectively the best choice for the Conservatives if they are looking to appeal to the wider electorate. The evidence that they are thinking about that aspect of the job at all is lacking.
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I've noticed Josias Jessop hasn't been around recently. Hope he is okay - think he was recovering from meningitis.Plato_Says said:I've tried getting in touch with his home and work email addresses.
I fear he may be no longer with us. We were pretty good friends.TwistedFireStopper said:
Where is he these days? Maybe he's gone bust?Fenster said:Is Financier on that list of top business people?
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He was the future once .... according to himself.Plato_Says said:Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out0 -
Manufacturing :-)Sean_F said:
LOL! There *are* more unpopular professions than the legal profession. Not many, but they do exist.Alanbrooke said:
Nah it's the price of social ostracism, it's like if paedos could charge.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a reason why the legal profession is such a high paying industry, people respect us for our commendable honesty and integrity.Alanbrooke said:
spoken like a lawyerTheScreamingEagles said:
Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss inMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.
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That sounds to me like giving someone a choice between eating broken glass or drinking acid.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is the cost of access to the single market.Sean_F said:
We've got to keep in with them because they're both incompetent and malicious?TheScreamingEagles said:Charles said:
The most likely (and most rational) outcome is that they will, but you can't guarantee it as it will be the result of a negotiationTheScreamingEagles said:
John, my friend and his colleagues have analysed the protections for the City of London/The Financial Services industry.JohnO said:
Ooh, you are awful.....Alanbrooke said:
which way are you swinging Mr O ?JohnO said:
I'm never been a paricular Boris fan but why exactly did he behave appallingly. Was it because he ruined the PMs carefully choreographed stage show at the weekend? Like Boris was I'm still on the fence in this debate but overt control freakery is somethingeNorm said:
I imagine David Davis must be feeling a bit sour having lost the crown of Tory Shit of the Decade to Boris.JohnO said:
"A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.AlastairMeeks said:Plato_Says said:http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/
At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the him.
Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
Back to Remain.
They've concluded they aren't robust as they'd like, and reliant on others in the EU rather than us having a veto/protection.
HOWEVER, all things considered they will be recommending me and others vote Remain, as Leave have yet to even address if we'll still have access to all the advantages of access to the single market/the financial passport.
p.s you mean @Cyclefree was right yesterday. Now there's a surprise
Plus they might harsh on us in the exit terms to stop others leaving. pour encourager les autres
It's a view I suppose.
Some see that as a price worth paying.0 -
It a long game still.AlastairMeeks said:
Theresa May would be objectively the best choice for the Conservatives if they are looking to appeal to the wider electorate. The evidence that they are thinking about that aspect of the job at all is lacking.JackW said:
Don't disagree. She just needs to burnish her presentation skills somewhat.Wanderer said:
Interesting. I think May has a rather charming smile when she uses it in interviews. You're right that she often doesn't use it.JackW said:
I'd agree save one point.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ahem.CornishBlue said:I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.
Theresa May.
Obvious, innit?
(Assuming a Remain result, of course)
May does at times exude a somewhat sour disposition. I'm not intimating that she adopt a forced Blair smile but the ability to empathize, genuine or not, smile and appear more clubbable would go a long way.
Clearly a long stint at the Home Office does not enhance the chuckle muscles but even "The Great She Elephant" was often amused and showed it whilst retaining the nuclear handbag for necessary chastisement of the errant faithful and non believers.
Imo (and this is just a hunch) she would connect very well with swing voters who would find her reasonable and reassuring. She would also provide a change in style from Cameron without herself appearing weird or extreme.
I also believe her spell at the home office has necessarily hardened her to the realities of both high office and the dangerous world we live in.
On balance I think she is the best candidate to succeed Cameron.0 -
I accept that. But why do you think that Conservative party members will not afford themselves the luxury of purity on the litmus test question when they believe they have the political space to do so?Richard_Nabavi said:
But we are in the middle of the nervous breakdown. After the catharsis of the referendum (especially if it's a reasonably clear Remain result), things will look very different. It's a cardinal mistake to think that the choice will be made on the emotions of yesterday.AlastairMeeks said:Theresa May would be objectively the best choice for the Conservatives if they are looking to appeal to the wider electorate. The evidence that they are thinking about that aspect of the job at all is lacking.
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Or a night out in Wigan as it's knownSean_F said:
That sounds to me like giving someone a choice between eating broken glass or drinking acid.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is the cost of access to the single market.Sean_F said:
We've got to keep in with them because they're both incompetent and malicious?TheScreamingEagles said:Charles said:
The most likely (and most rational) outcome is that they will, but you can't guarantee it as it will be the result of a negotiationTheScreamingEagles said:
John, my friend and his colleagues have analysed the protections for the City of London/The Financial Services industry.JohnO said:
Ooh, you are awful.....Alanbrooke said:
which way are you swinging Mr O ?JohnO said:
I'm never been a paricular Boris fan but why exactly did he behave appallingly. Was it because he ruined the PMs carefully choreographed stage show at the weekend? Like Boris was I'm still on the fence in this debate but overt control freakery is somethingeNorm said:
I imagine David Davis must be feeling a bit sour having lost the crown of Tory Shit of the Decade to Boris.JohnO said:
"A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.AlastairMeeks said:Plato_Says said:http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/
At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the him.
Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
Back to Remain.
They've concluded they aren't robust as they'd like, and reliant on others in the EU rather than us having a veto/protection.
HOWEVER, all things considered they will be recommending me and others vote Remain, as Leave have yet to even address if we'll still have access to all the advantages of access to the single market/the financial passport.
p.s you mean @Cyclefree was right yesterday. Now there's a surprise
Plus they might harsh on us in the exit terms to stop others leaving. pour encourager les autres
It's a view I suppose.
Some see that as a price worth paying.0 -
By all accounts (I accept we here will never know) he had transmitted pretty strong assurances to Cameron that he would support Remain, but then ratted at the last minute for his leadership ambitions. Every other Leaver, Gove, Villiers, Grayling, my own MP Dom Raab, have behaved with integrity and deserve respect during the campaign.JohnO said:
I'm never been a paricular Boris fan but why exactly did he behave appallingly. Was it because he ruined the PMs carefully choreographed stage show at the weekend? Like Boris was I'm still on the fence in this debate but overt control freakery is something that never appeals.Norm said:
I imagine David Davis must be feeling a bit sour having lost the crown of Tory Shit of the Decade to Boris.JohnO said:
"A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.AlastairMeeks said:Plato_Says said:http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/
At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the party that the referendum debate is already getting so personal.
One Outer who likes Cameron observes sadly that ‘he was silly letting his temper show but it was sadly typical. He finds being challenged irksome’. Cameron probably also feels that the Mayor was a bit of a tease right up to the last minute, whereupon he humiliated him.
Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
Mrs BoJo came out pretty strongly for Leave in the papers last week, would be interesting to know what domestic considerations came into play if he was wavering all over the place as originally suggested.0 -
Soames was so right on AfriyieJackW said:
He was the future once .... according to himself.Plato_Says said:Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"0 -
Having watched that, my joy is complete... How could anyone not be convinced by the Remain case after such a compelling argument from two such intellectual giants?FrancisUrquhart said:
Who are surprisingly two guys from Brussels...Frankly if they would have been better to have just used 100 good sized firms, than anybody with a pulse to make it to 200...MarqueeMark said:
Two Guys from Brussels (2 employees)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYMf3R1JA680 -
I've been concerned too. And @callumLucyJones said:
I've noticed Josias Jessop hasn't been around recently. Hope he is okay - think he was recovering from meningitis.Plato_Says said:I've tried getting in touch with his home and work email addresses.
I fear he may be no longer with us. We were pretty good friends.TwistedFireStopper said:
Where is he these days? Maybe he's gone bust?Fenster said:Is Financier on that list of top business people?
0 -
If there are two million businesses in the UK it seem pretty pathetic to only get a couple hundred on the letter.MarqueeMark said:"Big firms warn EU exit threatens jobs" says the BBC news front headline, about the letter in the Times.
Amongst those "big firms" are - as well as the aforementioned pub landlord - the following (who should all be given a Queens Award for Self-Publicitiy):
Waterloo Tea Limited (10 employees)
True Bridge Consultancy (3 employees)
The Prof's Tuition (4 employees)
Kendall Contracting (4 employees)
The Green Stationery Company (3 employees)
VIP Labels (2 employees)
and my personal fav -
Two Guys from Brussels (2 employees)0 -
It's not as much of a litmus test question as it appears either from the media, or most certainly from the comments here. Of course as a question it's disproportionately salient at the moment, but that's misleading.AlastairMeeks said:I accept that. But why do you think that Conservative party members will not afford themselves the luxury of purity on the litmus test question when they believe they have the political space to do so?
When the result is in, what will be the point of the litmus test? The die will be cast, if you excuse the mixed metaphor. It will help not to have shown an unedifying degree of enthusiasm for the EU, but I don't think Leave/Remain by itself will be crucial (assuming a Remain result).0 -
F1: from the BBC livefeed:
"Meanwhile, Horner said Bernie Ecclestone will table a proposal to reverse the top 10 qualifiers on the grid to try to increase excitement.”
Ecclestone should resign. Tired of him coming out with nonsense (cf medals and sprinklers).0 -
I fear they will not be exchanging Christmas cards in the coming years.TheScreamingEagles said:
Soames was so right on AfriyieJackW said:
He was the future once .... according to himself.Plato_Says said:Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"0 -
ullies often are wimps when faced with people stronger than they are.
Absolutely. The very definition of a bully is surely someone who prays on those weaker than him, and crawls to those his equal or above.
Its a theme out might develop. Its a shame David Cameron didn;t put an ounce of his supposed toughness into his negotiations with Francois Hollande.0 -
Mr. Eagles, does NATO demand we pay billions every year in membership fees? Does it try to impose laws upon us?
You know the two organisations are fundamentally different. But even so, that's irrelevant, because the debate is about the EU.
Miss Jones, I thought he'd recovered from that?0 -
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I've become a real fan of Nick Soames in recent weeks. His Twitter account is hilariousJackW said:
I fear they will not be exchanging Christmas cards in the coming years.TheScreamingEagles said:
Soames was so right on AfriyieJackW said:
He was the future once .... according to himself.Plato_Says said:Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"0 -
It demands we spend a certain amount on Defence spending whether we wish to or not.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, does NATO demand we pay billions every year in membership fees? Does it try to impose laws upon us?
You know the two organisations are fundamentally different. But even so, that's irrelevant, because the debate is about the EU.
Miss Jones, I thought he'd recovered from that?0 -
As I said in the thread header, much will depend on the result of the referendum. If Remain wins narrowly, the majority of Conservative members will have voted Leave and will be itching for a third bite at the cherry.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's not as much of a litmus test question as it appears either from the media, or most certainly from the comments here. Of course as a question it's disproportionately salient at the moment, but that's misleading.AlastairMeeks said:I accept that. But why do you think that Conservative party members will not afford themselves the luxury of purity on the litmus test question when they believe they have the political space to do so?
When the result is in, what will be the point of the litmus test? The die will be cast, if you excuse the mixed metaphor. It will help not to have shown an unedifying degree of enthusiasm for the EU, but I don't think Leave/Remain by itself will be crucial (assuming a Remain result).0 -
I'd noticed thatTheScreamingEagles said:
There's a reason why the legal profession is such a high paying industry, people respect us for our commendable honesty and integrity.Alanbrooke said:
spoken like a lawyerTheScreamingEagles said:
Better to be in servitude and earning millions/billions than being free and not having a pot to piss inMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's an argument for the certainty of servitude over the uncertainty of freedom.
0 -
Bullies often are wimps when faced with people stronger than they are. A case against the PM is that he is very effective in the Commons against weak and unprepared opponents (Milliband, Corbyn, Boris yesterday) but less so when negotiating with those better prepared than him.Cyclefree said:
"A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.AlastairMeeks said:Plato_Says said:http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/
At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the party that the referendum debate is already getting so personal.
One Outer who likes Cameron observes sadly that ‘he was silly letting his temper show but it was sadly typical. He finds being challenged irksome’. Cameron probably also feels that the Mayor was a bit of a tease right up to the last minute, whereupon he humiliated him.
Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
The skills needed for effective and caustic put downs in a debating chamber are not the skills needed for patient, effective, tenacious negotiations on often opaque detail. Cameron has the former. It is not at all clear that he has the latter.
In any case, we're only being given one side of the story.
It could just as easily be that Johnson told Cameron he was undecided on Friday, e-mailed him on Saturday, and texted him on Sunday.0 -
Maybe but F1 needs radical reform otherwise it will die. Season after season it's becoming more of a borefest...Morris_Dancer said:F1: from the BBC livefeed:
"Meanwhile, Horner said Bernie Ecclestone will table a proposal to reverse the top 10 qualifiers on the grid to try to increase excitement.”
Ecclestone should resign. Tired of him coming out with nonsense (cf medals and sprinklers).0 -
My respect for the wardrobe has just increased exponentially, - from a very low base however.TheScreamingEagles said:
Soames was so right on AfriyieJackW said:
He was the future once .... according to himself.Plato_Says said:Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"0 -
Even if that's true, and I'm not sure it is, there's clearly not going to be another bite at the cherry anytime soon. So it will be shelved as a hot issue for a while.AlastairMeeks said:As I said in the thread header, much will depend on the result of the referendum. If Remain wins narrowly, the majority of Conservative members will have voted Leave and will be itching for a third bite at the cherry.
0 -
Mr. S, things do need to change, but Ecclestone's idiotic comments [which he knows full well are stupid] grate. He's a large part of the problems the sport has.
Mr. Eagles, we're only meeting that by accounting bullshit (moving some spending from another department and labelling it Defence) and most members don't hit 2%, and there's no penalty beyond the Frown of Disapproval.
And that's irrelevant to a debate about whether we should be in the EU.0 -
I shall have a gander .... in the hope that Soames knows a decent resource for finding wardrobe keys ....TheScreamingEagles said:
It demands we spend a certain amount on Defence spending whether we wish to or not.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, does NATO demand we pay billions every year in membership fees? Does it try to impose laws upon us?
You know the two organisations are fundamentally different. But even so, that's irrelevant, because the debate is about the EU.
Miss Jones, I thought he'd recovered from that? 0 -
I'm very much an inner but exit is tempting in that it would help precipitate the managed decline of the city. A too large financial sector is not healthy for an economy, which should be focusing on financing the needs of industry i.e producing the stuff we really need. Of course part of the reason we have such large financial sector is that we are doing much of the financing for the rest of the world. A good thing you might say. But 2008 was a game-changer. It was a reminder that financial institutions are not 100% secure and need the state to stand behind them. Either we are part of a broader banking union and accept an external regulator or we manage down the system.0
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I'm not an expert, but from what I understand, it can take months to fully recover from viral meningitis, which is what I think he'd had.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, does NATO demand we pay billions every year in membership fees? Does it try to impose laws upon us?
You know the two organisations are fundamentally different. But even so, that's irrelevant, because the debate is about the EU.
Miss Jones, I thought he'd recovered from that?
0 -
Really? With the state of the Eurozone? The need for real reform inside the EC? It is foolish to believe that the EC is on some golden path and will just carry on as is. Remaining is not a choice for people that want a settled situation.Richard_Nabavi said:
Even if that's true, and I'm not sure it is, there's clearly not going to be another bite at the cherry anytime soon. So it will be shelved as a hot issue for a while.AlastairMeeks said:As I said in the thread header, much will depend on the result of the referendum. If Remain wins narrowly, the majority of Conservative members will have voted Leave and will be itching for a third bite at the cherry.
0 -
Miss Jones, hmm. Hopefully Mr. Jessop's alright.0
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I thought it was the EU that was supposed to show how wicked it is by not accepting the results of referendumsTCPoliticalBetting said:Really? With the state of the Eurozone? The need for real reform inside the EC? It is foolish to believe that the EC is on some golden path and will just carry on as is. Remaining is not a choice for people that want a settled situation.
0 -
For anyone looking for the causes of a great Conservative split just look at the attitude of the toadying supporters of Cameron. They do Cameron no favours. It is the people with more balance that Cameron should listen to.TheScreamingEagles said:
Soames was so right on AfriyieJackW said:
He was the future once .... according to himself.Plato_Says said:Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
0 -
I think you'll find Nicholas Soames wardrobe has a massively impressive base but is somewhat more challenged in other key areas ....SimonStClare said:
My respect for the wardrobe has just increased exponentially, - from a very low base however.TheScreamingEagles said:
Soames was so right on AfriyieJackW said:
He was the future once .... according to himself.Plato_Says said:Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"
0 -
As I understand it the Tory MPs elect two of their number by exhaustive ballot for the members of the party to select one as leader.
Why would those two not be Osborne and Johnson?0 -
Here's a pic of Theresa May smiling a bit: http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/News/Areas/Maidenhead/Theresa-May-and-Captain-Jack-Sparrow-help-open-new-Londis-store-21122015.htmJackW said:
I'd agree save one point.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ahem.CornishBlue said:I suspect that the party will go for a unifying candidate, one from either side of this European split - look out for a Cabinet member who clearly is only softly supporting Leave or Remain.
Theresa May.
Obvious, innit?
(Assuming a Remain result, of course)
May does at times exude a somewhat sour disposition. I'm not intimating that she adopt a forced Blair smile but the ability to empathize, genuine or not, smile and appear more clubbable would go a long way.
Clearly a long stint at the Home Office does not enhance the chuckle muscles but even "The Great She Elephant" was often amused and showed it whilst retaining the nuclear handbag for necessary chastisement of the errant faithful and non believers.0 -
Or Talktalk.rcs1000 said:
Don't join White's then!Charles said:
I don't want to be the member of a club that will threaten me to stop me leavingTheScreamingEagles said:
His view is the EU have handled the Eurozone/Greek and Immigrant crisises very badly, they will deal with Brexit just as badly.Charles said:
John, my friend and his colleagues have analysed the protections for the City of London/The Financial Services industry.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ooh, you are awful.....JohnO said:
which way are you swinging Mr O ?Alanbrooke said:
By all accounts (I accept we here will never know) he had transmitted pretty strong assurances to Cameron that he would support Remain, but then ratted at theJohnO said:
I'm never been a paricular Boris fan but why exactly did he behave appallingly. Was it because he ruined the PMs carefully choreographed stage show at the weekend? Like Boris was I'm still on the fence in this debate but overt control freakery is something that never appeals.Norm said:
I imagine David Davis must be feeling a bit sour having lost the crown of Tory Shit of the Decade to Boris.JohnO said:
"A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.AlastairMeeks said:Plato_Says said:http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/
At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the him.
Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
Back to Remain.
They've concluded they aren't robust as they'd like, and reliant on others in the EU rather than us having a veto/protection.
p.s you mean @Cyclefree was right yesterday. Now there's a surprise
Plus they might harsh on us in the exit terms to stop others leaving. pour encourager les autres0 -
Mr. JB, because the PCP don't want Johnson?
They should go for Patel. She's clearly the more attractive proposition.0 -
Nicholas Soames as Mr Toad .... it certainly doesn't require a leap of faith.TCPoliticalBetting said:
For anyone looking for the causes of a great Conservative split just look at the attitude of the toadying supporters of Cameron. They do Cameron no favours. It is the people with more balance that Cameron should listen to.TheScreamingEagles said:
Soames was so right on AfriyieJackW said:
He was the future once .... according to himself.Plato_Says said:Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"0 -
And here's another one of her positively grinning: http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/News/Areas/Maidenhead/Competition-to-design-Theresa-Mays-christmas-card-closes-tomorrow-11112015.htm0
-
I see Nus Ghani's defence of her decision to back out is getting plenty of compliments on tw8tter.0
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FFS. If you have a problem with the size of the financial services, dont aim to make it smaller, aim to grow the rest of your economy.FrankBooth said:I'm very much an inner but exit is tempting in that it would help precipitate the managed decline of the city. A too large financial sector is not healthy for an economy, which should be focusing on financing the needs of industry i.e producing the stuff we really need. Of course part of the reason we have such large financial sector is that we are doing much of the financing for the rest of the world. A good thing you might say. But 2008 was a game-changer. It was a reminder that financial institutions are not 100% secure and need the state to stand behind them. Either we are part of a broader banking union and accept an external regulator or we manage down the system.
It's like saying Scotland is too dependent on oil revenue, so lets stop drilling for the stuff.0 -
Nicholas Soames is Baron Harkonnen from Dune.JackW said:
Nicholas Soames as Mr Toad .... it certainly doesn't require a leap of faith.TCPoliticalBetting said:
For anyone looking for the causes of a great Conservative split just look at the attitude of the toadying supporters of Cameron. They do Cameron no favours. It is the people with more balance that Cameron should listen to.TheScreamingEagles said:
Soames was so right on AfriyieJackW said:
He was the future once .... according to himself.Plato_Says said:Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"0 -
I would accept the outcome but you wrote expecting no situation to develop where the EC was not put back into play by a crisis, or its failure to keep to the Cameron deal etc.Richard_Nabavi said:
I thought it was the EU that was supposed to show how wicked it is by not accepting the results of referendumsTCPoliticalBetting said:Really? With the state of the Eurozone? The need for real reform inside the EC? It is foolish to believe that the EC is on some golden path and will just carry on as is. Remaining is not a choice for people that want a settled situation.
0 -
In any case, we're only being given one side of the story.Sean_F said:
Bullies often are wimps when faced with people stronger than they are. A case against the PM is that he is very effective in the Commons against weak and unprepared opponents (Milliband, Corbyn, Boris yesterday) but less so when negotiating with those better prepared than him.Cyclefree said:
"A bit of a tease"? By any measure Boris Johnson behaved appallingly. He deserves what he got. It was still a mistake on the Prime Minister's part, of course.AlastairMeeks said:Plato_Says said:http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/tories-are-approaching-the-referendum-in-the-wrong-way/
At the party meeting with the Prime Minister last night, MPs including Steve Baker asked Cameron to ‘be nice to Boris’, not because they are particularly worried about the Mayor’s spirit being crushed but because there is some dismay in the party that the referendum debate is already getting so personal.
One Outer who likes Cameron observes sadly that ‘he was silly letting his temper show but it was sadly typical. He finds being challenged irksome’. Cameron probably also feels that the Mayor was a bit of a tease right up to the last minute, whereupon he humiliated him.
Incidentally, Leavers need a more coherent story about the Prime Minister. They'll struggle to persuade the public that he's both a brutal bully and a wimp.
The skills needed for effective and caustic put downs in a debating chamber are not the skills needed for patient, effective, tenacious negotiations on often opaque detail. Cameron has the former. It is not at all clear that he has the latter.
It could just as easily be that Johnson told Cameron he was undecided on Friday, e-mailed him on Saturday, and texted him on Sunday.
It is reported today that first Boris emailed him then when no reply came he texted him. But Cameron's people pushed out the "texted minutes beforehand" line.
0 -
Yes, it's a sound piece, as I would expect of Nus.taffys said:I see Nus Ghani's defence of her decision to back out is getting plenty of compliments on tw8tter.
Text here:
http://www.nusghani.org.uk/news/brexit-or-not-brexit
0 -
Surely Jabba the Soames?Sean_F said:
Nicholas Soames is Baron Harkonnen from Dune.JackW said:
Nicholas Soames as Mr Toad .... it certainly doesn't require a leap of faith.TCPoliticalBetting said:
For anyone looking for the causes of a great Conservative split just look at the attitude of the toadying supporters of Cameron. They do Cameron no favours. It is the people with more balance that Cameron should listen to.TheScreamingEagles said:
Soames was so right on AfriyieJackW said:
He was the future once .... according to himself.Plato_Says said:Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"0 -
@Morris_Dancer
It seems Mclaren still have major engine issues and Alonso is not a happy bunny in Barcelona...0 -
Interesting analysis with the correct calls, I think . The one nuance I would make for the Narrow Remain scenario is that whoever is chosen will have to accept the Remain result, ie a moderate Eurosceptic rather than a died in the wool one. Boris looks to be a suitable candidate.0
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That's a different point, though.TCPoliticalBetting said:I would accept the outcome but you wrote expecting no situation to develop where the EC was not put back into play by a crisis, or its failure to keep to the Cameron deal etc.
0 -
How much of the renegotiation has to survive before we decide we have been sold a up.Richard_Nabavi said:
Even if that's true, and I'm not sure it is, there's clearly not going to be another bite at the cherry anytime soon. So it will be shelved as a hot issue for a while.AlastairMeeks said:As I said in the thread header, much will depend on the result of the referendum. If Remain wins narrowly, the majority of Conservative members will have voted Leave and will be itching for a third bite at the cherry.
Legal opinions seem to feel that the emergency brake has a very high chance of being challenged at the ECJ almost immediately, what would be our position if that was shot down but the rest of the "deal" survived for the time being.
What about if the Eurozone passed a banking regulation we didn't like by QMV, and when we challenged it, it got talked around for an evening and then went ahead anyway.
0 -
Is he backing both campaigns?Plato_Says said:Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out0 -
You've been saving these pictures ...GarethoftheVale2 said:And here's another one of her positively grinning: http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/News/Areas/Maidenhead/Competition-to-design-Theresa-Mays-christmas-card-closes-tomorrow-11112015.htm
0 -
FarmersForBritain
The popular media assumption that UK farmers will lose all subsidies if we leave the EU is purely speculation and has no basis in fact.0 -
Sean_F said:
Nicholas Soames is Baron Harkonnen from Dune.JackW said:
Nicholas Soames as Mr Toad .... it certainly doesn't require a leap of faith.TCPoliticalBetting said:
For anyone looking for the causes of a great Conservative split just look at the attitude of the toadying supporters of Cameron. They do Cameron no favours. It is the people with more balance that Cameron should listen to.TheScreamingEagles said:
Soames was so right on AfriyieJackW said:
He was the future once .... according to himself.Plato_Says said:Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!" 0 -
Since the Leave side have tied themselves in knots telling us that the renegotiation achieved exactly nothing, whether it unravels or not is irrelevant, surely? They can't have it both ways.Indigo said:How much of the renegotiation has to survive before we decide we have been sold a up.
Legal opinions seem to feel that the emergency brake has a very high chance of being challenged at the ECJ almost immediately, what would be our position if that was shot down but the rest of the "deal" survived for the time being.0 -
Soames is a rather unpleasant individual.TheScreamingEagles said:
Soames was so right on AfriyieJackW said:
He was the future once .... according to himself.Plato_Says said:Adam Afriyie
With only scraps offered by an intransigent & arrogant EU elite, we'll be stronger, safer and better off out @vote_leave @Grassroots_Out
The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."
"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"0 -
I've warmed up to Andy Burnham. This is his reaction to the 'who are you' heckle set to music
https://twitter.com/Jacob4MK/status/7018510756918681650 -
Yes it was. And even funnier was Corbyn's po-faced response.TwistedFireStopper said:Who was the wag who shouted "Who are you? " at Corbyn yesterday? That was probably the funniest thing I've ever seen in the house of commons. Pure comedy genius.
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Okay you have had your smart arse point score, now answer the question.Richard_Nabavi said:
Since the Leave side have tied themselves in knots telling us that the renegotiation achieved exactly nothing, whether it unravels or not is irrelevant, surely? They can't have it both ways.Indigo said:How much of the renegotiation has to survive before we decide we have been sold a up.
Legal opinions seem to feel that the emergency brake has a very high chance of being challenged at the ECJ almost immediately, what would be our position if that was shot down but the rest of the "deal" survived for the time being.0 -
Their 9am BBC R4 News clip was a classic. Earlier in the Today programme was an interview with a Remainer the Virgin Money CEO and a Leaver an Investment chap. They both had almost equal time. But when the 9am news was run only the VirginMoney lady was quoted....FrancisUrquhart said:Wonder how many days in a row the BBC can lead with the risks / leap in the dark style headlines on a potential EU exit?
Who would have thunk it?
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Whatever it does will be interpreted as a failure to keep to the deal. (That's not meant as a jibe. It's just reality.)TCPoliticalBetting said:
I would accept the outcome but you wrote expecting no situation to develop where the EC was not put back into play by a crisis, or its failure to keep to the Cameron deal etc.Richard_Nabavi said:
I thought it was the EU that was supposed to show how wicked it is by not accepting the results of referendumsTCPoliticalBetting said:Really? With the state of the Eurozone? The need for real reform inside the EC? It is foolish to believe that the EC is on some golden path and will just carry on as is. Remaining is not a choice for people that want a settled situation.
Should a Leaver take over after a narrrow Remain win they will come under pressure to call another referendum at every turn, especially if polling suggests the public has changed its mind. They will resist this as being politically farcical and they will then be attacked as "a secret Europhile" etc.0 -
She looks like a frog eying up a tasty looking flyGarethoftheVale2 said:And here's another one of her positively grinning: http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/News/Areas/Maidenhead/Competition-to-design-Theresa-Mays-christmas-card-closes-tomorrow-11112015.htm
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In short, in the event of a Brexit vote, Article 50 looks unavoidable. The idea that it could be held off to seek a renegotiation of ongoing membership is thwarted by domestic political imperatives. The idea that it could be resisted to secure better Brexit terms is equally scuppered by the interests of the other member states. The Prime Minister’s words on Article 50 are not just tactical.
https://constitution-unit.com/2016/02/23/does-the-prime-minister-have-to-invoke-article-50-if-we-vote-for-brexit/0 -
OMG, what a face, has either of the Eagle sisters ever broken into a smile?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've warmed up to Andy Burnham. This is his reaction to the 'who are you' heckle set to music
https://twitter.com/Jacob4MK/status/7018510756918681650 -
This is such a fallacy. The idea that Dave didn't get a better deal because he didn't play hardball with the French (or anyone else). His first problem was that he's never got any cash in the bank from other EU leaders. Take this from Merkel a few months ago.taffys said:ullies often are wimps when faced with people stronger than they are.
Absolutely. The very definition of a bully is surely someone who prays on those weaker than him, and crawls to those his equal or above.
Its a theme out might develop. Its a shame David Cameron didn;t put an ounce of his supposed toughness into his negotiations with Francois Hollande.
http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/angela-merkel-once-told-david-cameron-what-everyone-in-europe-really-thinks-of-him--Z1qKdognre
Secondly his whole renegotiation strategy was based on the idea that he HAD to get something. It couldn't be seen to fail. So what he did was go around Europe not to make demands but to ask what they would give him. A clear sign of weakness - but since he was always determined to stay in, well his position was weak.
Thirdly it was ludicrous to think he could ever transform the EU single-handedly in time for a 2017 referendum. Not least when they're rather more worried about migration and the Euro problems.
Still there's little point in me mentioning this to all those Tories who have a fetish for handbagging and think that's the height of skillful diplomacy.0
