politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris backs Brexit but will it have an impact if he’s not g

The prospect of debating Cameron can't be that appealing to any Cabinet minister.

Boris has to ensure he does just enough to keep Out MPs happy to get their votes in 2019.

Nothing more, nothing less.

Awkward balancing act - but I'm sure he'll manage it.

RobD said:

The prospect of debating Cameron can't be that appealing to any Cabinet minister.

I'd be willing to debate Cameron, but I suppose it would be awkward for a minister.

MikeL said:

Boris has to ensure he does just enough to keep Out MPs happy to get their votes in 2019.

Nothing more, nothing less.

Awkward balancing act - but I'm sure he'll manage it.

Unless he decides he wants to be Prime Minister in 2016...

Brexit back on target.

After we leave, the EU will either become the United States of Europe, or will fall apart.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apologies for the lack of analysis by me on this thread header. I've got a busy few hours ahead and had been expecting Boris to announce his decision at 10pm and had planned accordingly.

Boris, you git.

It's all good. Keep looking after them eyes .

It's my book talking, but I'm very pleased Boris is arguing on sovereignty and control.

The same solid grounds as Gove and many of his Justice team.

We may lose, but we'll go down swinging.

No, he's not playing in media slanging matches that will ultimately hurt his own side.

I'm all for that which ever team is involved.

SouthamObserver said:

Boris is so opposed to the deal Dave got he won't debate with anyone who thinks it was a good one. That's how passionately Boris feels about this.

SeanT said:

Off topic. Am in Heathrow en route Nairobi

THE ICE TWINS is still in the w h smith top 40. 13 months after it came out. That's quite something.

Admit it, you just put it there..

Plato_Says said:

Spit

Montie
Tories' leading intellectual force (Gove) and its most popular star (Boris) have decided against PM's deal - concludes @faisalislam #skynews

Yes. These twoare major coups for Leave as they target two weak spots. Perceived lack of intellectual heft and manistream appeal. Shame they didn't get May for authority.

SeanT said:

Off topic. Am in Heathrow en route Nairobi

THE ICE TWINS is still in the w h smith top 40. 13 months after it came out. That's quite something.

My condolences. Nairobi is awful.

Though the Stanley is very nice.

Nice one Boris

@SouthamObserver


'Boris is so opposed to the deal Dave got he won't debate with anyone who thinks it was a good one. That's how passionately Boris feels about this.'


Get real,we've been hearing for weeks the major problem for Leave is that it wouldn't have a top well known politician in their group.

Indigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

Boris is so opposed to the deal Dave got he won't debate with anyone who thinks it was a good one. That's how passionately Boris feels about this.

Pfft you are just bitter because Leave are back in the game after having a good gloat yesterday.

I am in the happy position of being a bystander with no skin in the game. But the fact is that Boris has said he will not debate his deeply principled opposition to Dave's deal with any Tory who supports it. Has any other Leaver made such a commitment?

john_zims said:

@SouthamObserver


'Boris is so opposed to the deal Dave got he won't debate with anyone who thinks it was a good one. That's how passionately Boris feels about this.'


Get real,we've been hearing for weeks the major problem for Leave is that it wouldn't have a top well known politician in their group.

Leave needs an advocate. Boris has ruled himself out of being that.

Me too. Those without guts must be wondering what they've done


I've little time for the gutless myself. Risk taking involves standing up and being counted. I'd never shrink from it in my worklife.

hunchman said:

Plato_Says said:

Spit

Montie
Tories' leading intellectual force (Gove) and its most popular star (Boris) have decided against PM's deal - concludes @faisalislam #skynews

I thought that was a neat way of putting it.

One of the people who I think has really lost out over the weekend is Sajid Javed. He made noises about being in the out campaign, and when the chips were down he chickened out of it. I bet there's one or two in the remain campaign in the cabinet that are regretting their positions now!

FPT

Alistair Meeks said

"The chief spokesmen and women for Leave look like the extended Addams Family. Of course Remain are going to draw attention to the carnival freakshow aspect of their opponents"

You clearly have an extremely low opinion of the public if you think that is going to be a deciding factor.

In case you missed it we are all freaks. Well except TSE who is some kind of Indo-European god incarnate.

'One of the people who I think has really lost out over the weekend is Sajid Javed. He made noises about being in the out campaign, and when the chips were down he chickened out of it'

Not only that, he put up a ridiculously illogical and unconvincing set of reasons why he is backing REMAIN.

Pure cowardly careerism from him I'm afraid.

SouthamObserver said:

john_zims said:

@SouthamObserver


'Boris is so opposed to the deal Dave got he won't debate with anyone who thinks it was a good one. That's how passionately Boris feels about this.'


Get real,we've been hearing for weeks the major problem for Leave is that it wouldn't have a top well known politician in their group.

Leave needs an advocate. Boris has ruled himself out of being that.

Boris sounded very wooly to me, albeit sincere. It does not convince me he would be a successful minister or PM.

stodge said:

Evening all

Well, no surprise from Boris. This ludicrous obfuscation he won't debate against Conservatives backing REMAIN nor will he share a platform with some on LEAVE is just nonsense.

Does that mean he'll share a platform with Kate Hoey and debate with Tim Farron ? Absurd.

There will be a final showdown debate between Cameron and Johnson - this is where it's heading and it will be as much about the succession for the Conservative Party leadership as about the EU.

Boris is right - there has been no fundamental re-negotiation just a light tinkering.

The astonishing thing is that as with Iraq for Labour and tuition fees for the Liberal Democrats, this is an entirely self-inflicted wound by the Conservatives.

If I were Osborne I'd be inviting Boris to debate on a regular basis.

@SouthamObserver


'Leave needs an advocate. Boris has ruled himself out of being that. '


Nope, he's just ruled himself out of appearing in every single debate & appearing with Galloway.

Plato_Says said:

Boris has joined the underdogs team. I think she's fluffed this massively.

MarqueeMark said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Plato_Says said:

Spit

Montie
Tories' leading intellectual force (Gove) and its most popular star (Boris) have decided against PM's deal - concludes @faisalislam #skynews

Yes. These twoare major coups for Leave as they target two weak spots. Perceived lack of intellectual heft and manistream appeal. Shame they didn't get May for authority.

Wonder if May is kicking herself.....?

Or perhaps she actually believes in her side, rather than trying to position herself for maximum benefit to herself.

flightpath01 said:

Plato_Says said:

Spit

Montie
Tories' leading intellectual force (Gove) and its most popular star (Boris) have decided against PM's deal - concludes @faisalislam #skynews

Sunday Times reports that 'City leaders breath collective sigh of relief' over the results of Cameron's negotiations. Countries outside the eurozone have had confirmed their right to regulate their financial institutions. Chris Cummings of the trade body City UK quoted as saying the EU is confirmed a multiple currency zone and the importance of this cannot be underestimated. 50 FTSE100 leaders to write an official letter shortly. I suppose Miss Plato you and other Leavers know better than all of that. I salute your indifatigability.

Gerard Lyons ‎@DrGerardLyons
"3/ Chief Exec of CityUK praised the deal ... I am on the board of CityUK & thought deal far from what City wanted or needed"

Remain tightening again after having initially drifted significantly with Boris announcement:

Remain 1.47
Leave 3.05

john_zims said:

@SouthamObserver


'Leave needs an advocate. Boris has ruled himself out of being that. '


Nope, he's just ruled himself out of appearing in every single debate & appearing with Galloway.

He will not debate with anyone who supports the deal Dave got. That rather limits his options.

@hunchman

'I'll enjoy the BSE analogies that the press will make when the remain campaign hits the skids all being well. Oh I forgot, it hid the skids in a big way today.'


Boris has pissed big time into Remain's soup and that's before Cameron's trivial concessions get picked to pieces.

Watching the Tories eat themselves will be the most entertainment the centre left have had since the election. Quite why Boris has chosen to swap a sparkling political future for a one way ticket to Palooka-ville is a mystery. But the fact that he has is close to a certainty. Osborne might be the luckiest politician alive

Remain continuing to tighten.

Penny starting to drop that the whole thing is a complete charade.

But never mind - we end up still in the EU and with Boris as PM.

I can think of far worse combinations.

Boris / remain need more than the well let's vote no then we have another go at getting a new deal or something like that like, haazzah, insert some Latin / Greeks & off to bash out another newspaper column. They need to spell out a concrete plan if we take the big step & not the IDS terrorism nonsense.

Boris’ decision to not take an active role in the campaign is a little odd given his larger than life personality – he appears to have jumped off the fence, but not wandered too far from it.

Gerard Lyons ‎@DrGerardLyons
"3/ Chief Exec of CityUK praised the deal ... I am on the board of CityUK & thought deal far from what City wanted or needed"

Gerard is spot on there, which he isn't always

SimonStClare said:

Boris’ decision to not take an active role in the campaign is a little odd given his larger than life personality – he appears to have jumped off the fence, but not wandered too far from it.

Yep, he is so convinced of the case to Leave that he is not going to do that much to achieve it.

@Plato_Says

'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'


You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment

GIN1138 said:

SimonStClare said:

Boris’ decision to not take an active role in the campaign is a little odd given his larger than life personality – he appears to have jumped off the fence, but not wandered too far from it.

Has Boris said he won't take an "active" role?

I know he's said he wont' share a platform with Farage and The Gorgeous One but that doesn't mean he won't be active.

It could just mean he's planning to take control of LEAVE and boot the freak show (and people like Farage whose aim is probably to ensure we stay in the EU) to the sidelines?

Has he actually mentioned Farage explicitly? I think we should clear this up now, because I thought he said Galloway 'and others' which is quite different.

I can't resist

https://youtu.be/PDFiWxz8dqs

Indigo said:

SimonStClare said:

Boris’ decision to not take an active role in the campaign is a little odd given his larger than life personality – he appears to have jumped off the fence, but not wandered too far from it.

If he starts slapping senior Tories around on TV, they and their supporters and proteges are not going to vote for him in the leadership contest, and might not want to be in his cabinet.

Two bulls are standing at the top of a hill overlooking a pasture.
One is an old-timer and the other is young.
In the pasture are dozens of attractive cows, milling about and eating the tender grass beneath their hooves.
The young bull says to the old bull, "Let's run down the hill and get us a cow!!"
The old bull calmly looks at the young one and replies, "Let's WALK down the hill and get them all."

So the theme of this article at the top is Boris chooses LEAVE and somehow it will not have much impact if he does not appear in a debate....
FFS how many debates would a Leader of the campaign appear in? 1? 2? at the most as there is no single Leader. Compared to the rest of the cabinet, Boris will shortly have more time to go and campaign than any of them will have.

Plato_Says said:

No, he's not debating against his Tory team.

Frankly, I'm not at all interested in macho contests like this. It's all ruler crap.

He'll be advocating the Leave position. To voters. Not with other politicians.

SouthamObserver said:

john_zims said:

@SouthamObserver


'Leave needs an advocate. Boris has ruled himself out of being that. '


Nope, he's just ruled himself out of appearing in every single debate & appearing with Galloway.

He will not debate with anyone who supports the deal Dave got. That rather limits his options.

As I said, he's not debating with anyone who backs Dave's deal. He'll support Leave, but he is not going to fight for it. We'll get the odd speech, some funny photos and some Telegraph pieces. What we won't get are in-depth interviews or debates. It will be all very Boris and will be pretty peripheral to the campaign. But it will serve his purposes.

If I were a convinced Outer I would not want him near the Brexit negotiations. You're very wise not to want him as Tory leader, especially given that the party can choose anyone and still beat Corbyn.

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

Watching the Tories eat themselves will be the most entertainment the centre left have had since the election. Quite why Boris has chosen to swap a sparkling political future for a one way ticket to Palooka-ville is a mystery. But the fact that he has is close to a certainty. Osborne might be the luckiest politician alive

Completely disagree. Boris has chosen the route most likely to lead him to becoming PM. If Leave wins that will be this year.

Clearly the case. Even if REMAIN wins boris has now turbocharged his chances of being on the final ballot, and benefitting from the inevitable emotional fallout following a REMAIN vote.

I begin to think Roger is just stupid. Not merely misinformed, or a bit doddery, but actively thick.

I cannot remember a single issue where Roger has been interestingly right. I can think of many where he has been utterly and laughably wrong.

I've been sure REMAIN would win... But my one nagging doubt is Rogers confidence that REMAIN will win.

Could Roger "this banking crisis will all be over by the Monday" Darmus actually be right about something for once? Really?

hunchman said:

Great to see there will be no Bush Mk III in the White House come next January. Now its time to ensure that there won't be a Clinton there too. Assuming the Republican side comes down to Rubio Trump, what's the best guess for how Cruz's voters would transfer to Rubio and Trump - 60:40 in Rubio's favour?

I suspect Cruz's base would tend to slide to Rubio first but I've no absolute evidence.

Rubio's bigger issue is that Trump is fighting him for a decent segment of the GOP vote, your workaday Republicans. There is this idea that Trump somehow isn't getting some very regular, everyday GOP voters but he clearly hasn't invented a completely new batch of people.

Rubio needs to take some of them away.

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Alistair Meeks said

"The chief spokesmen and women for Leave look like the extended Addams Family. Of course Remain are going to draw attention to the carnival freakshow aspect of their opponents"

You clearly have an extremely low opinion of the public if you think that is going to be a deciding factor.

In case you missed it we are all freaks. Well except TSE who is some kind of Indo-European god incarnate.

IIRC we're either "the mob" or "useful idiots".

.

tlg86 said:

EPG said:

john_zims said:

@Plato_Says

'If only we all had Hungarian heated swimming pools, earned 20x the aver salary and voted for greenie parties. And thought rural people should pay extra and farming was unnecessary.'


You missed out the million pound apartment in Shoreditch, a salary not driven down by mass immigration, no kids to run the state school lottery & if the NHS is not great loads of money for private treatment

This is what LEAVE looks like.
No wonder waverers are repulsed even when they think LEAVE might be right.
Roundheads.

I found Mr Meeks's original comment - clearly directed at Theresa Villiers - was pretty immature. Remain like to portray themselves as being on the moral high ground. They're doing a good job at undermining that position at the moment.

Neither side has high ground
REMAIN is explicitly basing its campaign on terrifying people into voting status, which ceded the high ground immediately, like the 2015 Conservative campaign
OTOH, our LEAVE friends saw something they didn't like and jumped right into anti-establishementTrumpianism

MikeL said:

Remain continuing to tighten.

Penny starting to drop that the whole thing is a complete charade.

But never mind - we end up still in the EU and with Boris as PM.

I can think of far worse combinations.

I think your analysis is fairly accurate - it's called controlled opposition.

Boris takes over Leave, benefits from the inevitable backlash when Remain wins, life carries on as normal. Prevents UKIP or any other anti-establishment force from gaining a toehold in British politics.

Having said that, the fact it is considered necessary demonstrates genuine progress for the forces of 'Leave'. Otherwise it wouldn't be worth doing. There is also a risk that Boris is seen to be pulling his punches, a la Cameron in the 2010 election, which the Tory faithful are likely to be quite wary of. I don't think there's any way he can actively harm Leave without it rebounding on him - especially as he's ruled himself out of a big role. Therefore broadly speaking this must be considered as a good endorsement and little more or less.

The EU referendum now looks likely to be as much Boris Johnson v David Cameron as Leave v Remain. George Osborne is obviously in Boris' sites too. Boris will give Leave a bounce which will cancel out much of the bounce Remain has got following Cameron's deal. However I am sticking to my view it will be 52% to 48% Remain. Also interesting that Boris has taken a different position on this than his brother and father who are both for Remain

Does he predict outliers or just favourites?

I can't recall anyone winning a long shot, more myth than reality me thinks.

Happy to be corrected.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

Watching the Tories eat themselves will be the most entertainment the centre left have had since the election. Quite why Boris has chosen to swap a sparkling political future for a one way ticket to Palooka-ville is a mystery. But the fact that he has is close to a certainty. Osborne might be the luckiest politician alive

Completely disagree. Boris has chosen the route most likely to lead him to becoming PM. If Leave wins that will be this year.

I cannot remember a single issue where Roger has been interestingly right. I can think of many where he has been utterly and laughably wrong.

Roger is usually very good on the Oscars.