politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post EU deal referendum poll has REMAIN with 15% lead
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YossariansChild said:
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)HYUFD said:
No, wYossariansChild said:
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.HYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win ov.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - aewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
Nevada, the Hispanic vote goes for Clinton, Pennsylvania even voted for John Kerry, Ohio is Clinton country, Virginia is increasingly a suburb of Democratic DCYossariansChild said:
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)HYUFD said:
No, wrong. Hispanics despise Trump and would vote for Satan if he was on the ballot against him, women will also vote for Hillary over Trump, though Trump will win white men by a large mYossariansChild said:
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.HYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough ReEPG said:
That is one way to look at itwilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someonEPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
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Back in September Bush was saying, “I’m going to win South Carolina, take it to the bank"Danny565 said:JEB BUSH DROPPING OUT.
http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20150924/PC1603/150929585/1031/bush-says-he-x2019-ll-win-sc-primary-x2018-take-it-to-the-bank-x20190 -
Gap between Bush and Carson drops to 1%.0
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Or looked at the other way Trump cancels any toxicity in Clinton, his unfavourables are just as bad if not worse. In 1968 Bobby Kennedy would likely have beaten Nixon, Nixon was able to beat Humphrey so that does not necessarily followRodCrosby said:
You forget Clinton, who cancels any toxicity in the GOP candidate.HYUFD said:
Yes, well looks like they are quite willing to lose it!!! If Rubio or Kascih were GOP nominee the GOP would almost certainly win, Trump or Cruz offers the Dems a get out of jail free card! Bush Snr also managed it for the GOP in 1988RodCrosby said:
Ignore them. The last DEM to win an election after 2 (or more) previous terms was almost 70 years ago, and he was a new incumbent...Pulpstar said:
Punters judging by their implied odds.RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
Only one non-incumbent DEM has achieved it. Van Buren in 1836, and he at least was Veep.
It's the GOP's to lose.
She trumps Trump in that department!
Besides, candidates are shown to have negligible impact on the fundamentals of the cycle...0 -
There are only 55 polls that matter - 50 states and 5 territoriesRodCrosby said:
Polls at this stage are not evidence of anything - except perhaps too many polls...HYUFD said:
Indeed but until the evidence changes I will go on the evidence we have, delightful though these arguments areRodCrosby said:
If all you needed was the polls, you wouldn't need PB and its successful contrarian pundits now, would you?HYUFD said:
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8%RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/0 -
I did say that the opinion polls showed him battling for last with Carson, the day after OGH declared him the winner of the debate.AndyJS said:Gap between Bush and Carson drops to 1%.
Never make an assumption about debate winners until you see the voting intention.0 -
At this stage in 2012 Obama was beating Romney, in 2008 he was beating McCain, in 2004 Bush was beating Kerry, in 2000 Bush was beating Gore. They are not infallible, as 1980 showed but they cannot be dismissed eitherRodCrosby said:
Polls at this stage are not evidence of anything - except perhaps too many polls...HYUFD said:
Indeed but until the evidence changes I will go on the evidence we have, delightful though these arguments areRodCrosby said:
If all you needed was the polls, you wouldn't need PB and its successful contrarian pundits now, would you?HYUFD said:
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8%RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/0 -
And Jeb is cashed out for £1 @ 1000-10
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Trump speaking now.0
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Ohio is Kasich country. Which is why he'll be high up the VP list.HYUFD said:YossariansChild said:
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)HYUFD said:
No, wYossariansChild said:
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.HYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win ov.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - aewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
Nevada, the Hispanic vote goes for Clinton, Pennsylvania even voted for John Kerry, Ohio is Clinton country, Virginia is increasingly a suburb of Democratic DCYossariansChild said:
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)HYUFD said:
No, wrong. Hispanics despise Trump and would vote for Satan if he was on the ballot against him, women will also vote for Hillary over Trump, though Trump will win white men by a large mYossariansChild said:
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.HYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough ReEPG said:
That is one way to look at itwilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someonEPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
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Trump "we love New Hampshire"
I'm making a speech to Atlanta and them I'm going to Nevada, I would like to thank my family, i have a great family, Ivanka to have her baby in S.C., we have a wonderful lieutenant government, i will take him anytime over the the governor because we won.
Now Melania and Ivanka talk.0 -
Yawn. Ignore polls, except perhaps those that may confirm the fundamentals, as all of your examples do...HYUFD said:
At this stage in 2012 Obama was beating Romney, in 2008 he was beating McCain, in 2004 Bush was beating Kerry, in 2000 Bush was beating Gore. They are not infallible, as 1980 showed but they cannot be dismissed eitherRodCrosby said:
Polls at this stage are not evidence of anything - except perhaps too many polls...HYUFD said:
Indeed but until the evidence changes I will go on the evidence we have, delightful though these arguments areRodCrosby said:
If all you needed was the polls, you wouldn't need PB and its successful contrarian pundits now, would you?HYUFD said:
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8%RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
The fundamentals say GOP by a mile.0 -
Trump getting his family members to speak.
He is just trolling the world now isn't he, lol0 -
Which one is Trump's daughter, and which one his wife
? 0 -
Looks like Rubio will be 2nd. Last matched at 1.10
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The pregnant one on TV left is Ivanka, the one in the pink dress TV right is Melanoma
edit: Melania0 -
Oh Trump attacking pundits over the dropping out of candidates = the end of Trump.0
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Now Trump attacking Mexico.0
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Trump "I love hispanics and they love me", now attacking China.0
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Rubio 5.2 on POTUS o_O0
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He's at the Georgia World Trade Center tomorrow at 4pm. As I saw him a few days ago I'm not going.Speedy said:Trump "we love New Hampshire"
I'm making a speech to Atlanta and them I'm going to Nevada, I would like to thank my family, i have a great family, Ivanka to have her baby in S.C., we have a wonderful lieutenant government, i will take him anytime over the the governor because we won.
Now Melania and Ivanka talk.0 -
I don't think they like protesters at Trump rallies.Tim_B said:
He's at the Georgia World Trade Center tomorrow at 4pm. As I saw him a few days ago I'm not going.Speedy said:Trump "we love New Hampshire"
I'm making a speech to Atlanta and them I'm going to Nevada, I would like to thank my family, i have a great family, Ivanka to have her baby in S.C., we have a wonderful lieutenant government, i will take him anytime over the the governor because we won.
Now Melania and Ivanka talk.0 -
Trump's not big on detail is he?
"We are going to a plan that is so much better than Obamacare and so much less expensive."0 -
Trump is very high energy tonight.0
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He's a fucking loonball.stjohn said:Trump's not big on detail is he?
"We are going to a plan that is so much better than Obamacare and so much less expensive."0 -
I just sit there quietly at the back wearing my Obama t-shirt so nobody will notice me.Speedy said:
I don't think they like protesters at Trump rallies.Tim_B said:
He's at the Georgia World Trade Center tomorrow at 4pm. As I saw him a few days ago I'm not going.Speedy said:Trump "we love New Hampshire"
I'm making a speech to Atlanta and them I'm going to Nevada, I would like to thank my family, i have a great family, Ivanka to have her baby in S.C., we have a wonderful lieutenant government, i will take him anytime over the the governor because we won.
Now Melania and Ivanka talk.0 -
I'm ready to declare that Rubio has come in second.0
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When do we get the South Carolina Democratic results?
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The Benetton Ad losers are talking.
I predict that he will declare victory.0 -
The fundamentals say a reformed GOP which reaches out to Hispanics in a US with a rising minority population could win, they also say a Republican party which reaches back to its comfort zone of the 1950s and attacks Hispanics and gay marriage and the modern world will not!RodCrosby said:
Yawn. Ignore polls, except perhaps those that may confirm the fundamentals, as all of your examples do...HYUFD said:
At this stage inRodCrosby said:
Polls at this stage are not evidence of anything - except perhaps too many polls...HYUFD said:
Indeed but until the evidence changes I will go on the evidence we have, delightful though these arguments areRodCrosby said:
If all you needed was the polls, you wouldn't need PB and its successful contrarian pundits now, would you?HYUFD said:
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8%RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
The fundamentals say GOP by a mile.0 -
Domo arigato Marco Roboto.
"I'm Congratulating Donald Trump for winning, this is a 3 person race and I will win the nomination."
"Jeb Bush has many things to be proud of"
He's licking Jeb's behinds.0 -
Guff, that's not fundamentals. That's special pleading/wishful thinking...HYUFD said:
The fundamentals say a reformed GOP which reaches out to Hispanics in a US with a rising minority population could win, they also say a Republican party which reaches back to its comfort zone of the 1950s and attacks Hispanics and the modern world will not!RodCrosby said:
Yawn. Ignore polls, except perhaps those that may confirm the fundamentals, as all of your examples do...HYUFD said:
At this stage in 2012 Obama was beating Romney, in 2008 he was beating McCain, in 2004 Bush was beating Kerry, in 2000 Bush was beating Gore. They are not infallible, as 1980 showed but they cannot be dismissed eitherRodCrosby said:
Polls at this stage are not evidence of anything - except perhaps too many polls...HYUFD said:
Indeed but until the evidence changes I will go on the evidence we have, delightful though these arguments areRodCrosby said:
If all you needed was the polls, you wouldn't need PB and its successful contrarian pundits now, would you?HYUFD said:
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8%RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:williamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
The fundamentals say GOP by a mile.0 -
Even if Clinton lost Ohio she still wins with Nevada and VirginiaYossariansChild said:
Ohio is Kasich country. Which is why he'll be high up the VP list.HYUFD said:YossariansChild said:
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)HYUFD said:
No, wYossariansChild said:
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.HYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win ov.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - aewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
Nevada, the Hispanic vote goes for Clinton, Pennsylvania even voted for John Kerry, Ohio is Clinton country, Virginia is increasingly a suburb of Democratic DCYossariansChild said:
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)HYUFD said:
No, wrong. Hispanics despise Trump and would vote for Satan if he was on the ballot against him, women will also vote for Hillary over Trump, though Trump will win white men by a large mYossariansChild said:
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. WHYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough ReEPG said:
That is one way to look at itwilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someonEPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
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"21st Century"
There he goes again.0 -
Nope, that is your wishful thinking, Romney won the highest share of the white vote since 1988 in 2012 and still lost. Trump could win an even higher share and also lose because well over a third of the electorate is minority and the GOP is not making the inroads they need into that vote to win, indeed Trump could even take them backwards with the Hispanic voteRodCrosby said:
Guff, that's not fundamentals. That's special pleading/wishful thinking...HYUFD said:
The fundamentals say a reformed GOP which reaches out to Hispanics in a US with a rising minority population could win, they also say a Republican party which reaches back to its comfort zone of the 1950s and attacks Hispanics and the modern world will not!RodCrosby said:
Yawn. Ignore polls, except perhaps those that may confirm the fundamentals, as all of your examples do...HYUFD said:
At this stage in 2012 Obama was beatinRodCrosby said:
Polls at this stage are not evidence of anything - except perhaps too many polls...HYUFD said:
Indeed but until the evidence changes I will go on the evidence we have, delightful though these arguments areRodCrosby said:
If all yHYUFD said:
The polls. Rubio leads CliRodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:williamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
The fundamentals say GOP by a mile.0 -
Rubio:
Reagan, Morning in america, assuming the mantle of leardership, reagan, reagan, reagan, who are we, 21st century, Tim Scott, 21st century, immigrants, Nicky Haley, 21st century, my father was a bartender from Cuba, we are a nation, we are a nation, 21st century, 21st century, 21st century, limited government, join us, we are down to 3, unify our country, MarcoRubio.com, 60 years ago from Cuba, my parents.0 -
Rubio now speaking on Sky News after Trump and Bush's statements
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One ineligible candidate thanks the endorsement of another...0
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If Kasich stays in until Ohio, he could probably block Trump and let Rubio win it.HYUFD said:
Even if Clinton lost Ohio she still wins with Nevada and VirginiaYossariansChild said:
Ohio is Kasich country. Which is why he'll be high up the VP list.HYUFD said:YossariansChild said:
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)HYUFD said:
No, wYossariansChild said:HYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win ov.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - aewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
Nevada, the Hispanic vote goes for Clinton, Pennsylvania even voted for John Kerry, Ohio is Clinton country, Virginia is increasingly a suburb of Democratic DCYossariansChild said:
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)HYUFD said:
No, wrong. Hispanics despise Trump and would vote for Satan if he was on the ballot against him, women will also vote for Hillary over Trump, though Trump will win white men by a large mYossariansChild said:
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. WHYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough ReEPG said:
That is one way to look at itwilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someonEPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
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Rubio making the speech of the night.
Ted Cruz has not won a single county in SC today0 -
If anything I would have thought Kasich staying in helps TrumpTim_B said:
If Kasich stays in until Ohio, he could probably block Trump and let Rubio win it.HYUFD said:
Even if Clinton lost Ohio she still wins with Nevada and VirginiaYossariansChild said:
Ohio is Kasich country. Which is why he'll be high up the VP list.HYUFD said:YossariansChild said:
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)HYUFD said:
No, wYossariansChild said:HYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win ov.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - aewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
Nevada, the Hispanic vote goes for Clinton, Pennsylvania even voted for John Kerry, Ohio is Clinton country, Virginia is increasingly a suburb of Democratic DCYossariansChild said:
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)HYUFD said:
No,YossariansChild said:
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. WHYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough ReEPG said:
That is one way to look at itwilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someonEPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
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Yes I think we know the Rubio speech off by heart by now, it works well when he can recite it unchallenged, rather less well when he has to think on his feet as the NH debate showedSpeedy said:Rubio:
Reagan, Morning in america, assuming the mantle of leardership, reagan, reagan, reagan, who are we, 21st century, Tim Scott, 21st century, immigrants, Nicky Haley, 21st century, my father was a bartender from Cuba, we are a nation, we are a nation, 21st century, 21st century, 21st century, limited government, join us, we are down to 3, unify our country, MarcoRubio.com, 60 years ago from Cuba, my parents.0 -
CNN guy doesn't know that delegates are not awarded proportionally in all states before March 15th actually.
Example: S.C. Trump 33% of the vote, 100% of the delegates.0 -
Rubio describing Cuban couple who came to America: "I'm talking about my parents."
Audience member: "Yeah, spoiler alert."
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Right off to bed, night all. Nevada GOP caucuses next up on Tuesday0
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Ted Cruz at 30 / 480 o_O !0
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The have heard the same speech a lot of times.YossariansChild said:Rubio describing Cuban couple who came to America: "I'm talking about my parents."
Audience member: "Yeah, spoiler alert."0 -
CNN guy calling Trump a clown for not acknowledging Jeb Bush, equates Bush with "your child" .0
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Cruz speaking:
GOOOD bless the great state of S.C, we made history, our volunteers, we defied the pundits, let me praise Jeb Bush, he ran a campaign based on substance, he didn't go to the gutter, we give our best to the Bush family, I want to thank my team Jeff Dunkan Mark Sanford ect ect ect ect ect ect ect and all 7 of their kids and the 500 pastors that endorsed me, Iowa, N.H, S.C, we don't know the results, we are tied for second, we defied expectations, screaming youth across the potomac are scared (Rubio), a moment of silence for Scalia, I attended his funeral, I knew him well for 20 years, Reagan and Scalia, underscores the stakes, 2 branches at stake, no washington power brokers, we the people , this election will be a referendum on the supreme court, Sanders Hillary socialists, constitution abortion guns bible, they said we will never win and we defied expectations, false and nasty attacks against us, everyone was against us, S.C gave us a remarkable result, Iowa, N.H. S.C, 1st conservatives unite behind us, i;m the only strong conservative in the race, we our the only ones that have beaten Trump, that's why he attacks me, I congratulate him, i say to america, Trump will lose against the democrats, i will have a strong contrast, volunteers, TedCruz.org .0 -
Rubio didn't mention Scalia in his speech.
This could work for Cruz/0 -
Aye thats why its funny;Speedy said:
The have heard the same speech a lot of times.YossariansChild said:Rubio describing Cuban couple who came to America: "I'm talking about my parents."
Audience member: "Yeah, spoiler alert."
https://mtc.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/9782DF1FEA1313021335768801280_5c74176cb39.5.0.16623677992623877266.mp4?versionId=PbXvX4T4y8TsfZJu8mT6lmlqylobnqYm0 -
Cruz:
Life, guns, flat tax, abolish IRS, only one candidate, amnesty, only one, ethanol and won Iowa, I will rebuilt the military, stand up for Israel, utterly destroy ISIS, together we secure the borders, make america safe, I give you my word, i will appoint constitutionalists, I will fight with every breath, liberties blesses to inherit, we fight, we love our children we will not give up, Nevada, Super Tuesday, Iowa, N.H, S.C have given a choice, no washington dealmakers, stand together with principled constitutional conservative.0 -
It's still possible that Cruz may take second place, he's only 900 votes behind Rubio and in the counties still to be completed he's beating Rubio, he might close it by another 250 votes by York county and then close it by 10, 20, 30 votes here and there in each of the smaller counties.0
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Rubio looks terrible when the camera zooms in.0
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The close contest between Rubio and Cruz for 2nd place reminds me of the statistical equation that
If candidate A has a votes,
and if candidate B has b votes,
and if the votes are mixed up and counted one by one in a random order,
there is a probability of (a-b)/(a+b)
that A will be ahead of B throughout the entire count.0 -
Unlikely - Rubio's been between 800-1000 votes ahead for well over an hour.Speedy said:It's still possible that Cruz may take second place, he's only 900 votes behind Rubio and in the counties still to be completed he's beating Rubio, he might close it by another 250 votes by York county and then close it by 10, 20, 30 votes here and there in each of the smaller counties.
Cruz has not won a single county in SC0 -
Did someone mention the 21st Century?
It reminds me of the time when Bill Clinton used to pledge that he would get the USA into the 21st Century, and then Rory Bremner (as Clinton) pointed out that we would get there anyway.0 -
Steve Kornacki @SteveKornacki 3h3 hours ago
Trump becomes the fourth Republican since 1980 to lose Iowa, then win both NH and SC. The others were Reagan '80, Bush '88 and McCain '08.
That sums it up.
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict 9m9 minutes ago
Projection: Donald Trump has won all 50 South Carolina delegates.
Goodnight.0 -
Florida strategy being talked about on CNN:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html0 -
That is a great picture of Donald Trump on the CNN race red box.
Makes him look look oyunger than he is !0 -
I have to add this too:
amy walter @amyewalter 3h3 hours ago
Once again, Trump’s winning across class/education/party/ideology/ religion lines. Going to be hard to stop.
Yeah Trump only having a 19 point lead over Cruz in Florida and a 23 point lead over Rubio, with Bush at 4% .Pulpstar said:Florida strategy being talked about on CNN:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html
We can start being sarcastic.0 -
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I think there needs to be a modulus in there or something. Otheriwse there would be a negative probability of B had one more vote than AJohnLoony said:The close contest between Rubio and Cruz for 2nd place reminds me of the statistical equation that
If candidate A has a votes,
and if candidate B has b votes,
and if the votes are mixed up and counted one by one in a random order,
there is a probability of (a-b)/(a+b)
that A will be ahead of B throughout the entire count.
0 -
Just got an email from Stronger In - "This is what we are up against - Nigel Farage and George Galloway" not a lot of ball playing going on!0
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Dangerous... risks their team getting complacent.... and a reply email with pictures of McMao, Eddy Izzard and Gerry Adams... and if they are really unlucky, Emma ThompsonCarlottaVance said:Just got an email from Stronger In - "This is what we are up against - Nigel Farage and George Galloway" not a lot of ball playing going on!
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True - but if they can turn a "Vote for Leave" into a "Vote for Nigel & George" they'll be happy enough....Indigo said:
Dangerous... risks their team getting complacent.... and a reply email with pictures of McMao, Eddy Izzard and Gerry Adams... and if they are really unlucky, Emma ThompsonCarlottaVance said:Just got an email from Stronger In - "This is what we are up against - Nigel Farage and George Galloway" not a lot of ball playing going on!
0 -
email from Vote Leave:
If you vote ‘stay’ in the referendum, it means:
The permanent supremacy of EU law
We keep sending over £350 million every week to Brussels – 60 times more than we spend on the NHS Cancer Fund
Permanent EU control of trade, human rights, and migration
Your money will be spent on propping up the euro
How do they justify their final claim?0 -
0
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Part of the funds we pay to the EU goes to maintaining this monstrosity:CarlottaVance said:email from Vote Leave:
If you vote ‘stay’ in the referendum, it means:
The permanent supremacy of EU law
We keep sending over £350 million every week to Brussels – 60 times more than we spend on the NHS Cancer Fund
Permanent EU control of trade, human rights, and migration
Your money will be spent on propping up the euro
How do they justify their final claim?
http://c8.alamy.com/comp/AAE2K7/frankfurt-am-main-the-euro-monument-in-front-of-the-european-central-AAE2K7.jpg
Perhaps 0 -
Any bailout or assistance which comes from the EU Budget is de facto being partly paid for by the UK as we contribute to that budget.CarlottaVance said:Your money will be spent on propping up the euro
How do they justify their final claim?
0 -
Cast Iron Dave said:
Likewise, we have established once and for all in international law that Britain's national security is the sole responsibility of the British Government – so, for instance, we will never be part of a European Army.
The changes will be legally binding in international law, and will be deposited at the UN.the review by the Court of the validity of any Community measure in the light of fundamental rights must be considered to be the expression, in a community based on the rule of law, of a constitutional guarantee stemming from the EC Treaty as an autonomous legal system which is not to be prejudiced by an international agreement.
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Polish PM can't resist a gloat
https://twitter.com/BeataSzydlo/status/700804227753492480
Today's agreement is good news for Europe. We took care of the interests of the Polish people benefiting from social services in the Member States #UE0 -
By ensuring our deal was only for us, not for the whole of Europe as some wanted.Indigo said:Polish PM can't resist a gloat
https://twitter.com/BeataSzydlo/status/700804227753492480
Today's agreement is good news for Europe. We took care of the interests of the Polish people benefiting from social services in the Member States #UE0 -
New Thread New Thread
0 -
By ensuring our deal was only for us, not for the whole of Europe as some wanted.Philip_Thompson said:Indigo said:Polish PM can't resist a gloat
https://twitter.com/BeataSzydlo/status/700804227753492480
Today's agreement is good news for Europe. We took care of the interests of the Polish people benefiting from social services in the Member States #UE
There is a lot more cross border commutting in Central Europe, so family benifits related issuus can be quite a tangle.0 -
This is what political debate in the UK has descended to. Perhaps Simon Cowell can host election night broadcasts.CarlottaVance said:
True - but if they can turn a "Vote for Leave" into a "Vote for Nigel & George" they'll be happy enough....Indigo said:
Dangerous... risks their team getting complacent.... and a reply email with pictures of McMao, Eddy Izzard and Gerry Adams... and if they are really unlucky, Emma ThompsonCarlottaVance said:Just got an email from Stronger In - "This is what we are up against - Nigel Farage and George Galloway" not a lot of ball playing going on!
0 -
A lot of Leave is equally personal character attacks. Sauce for the goose...blackburn63 said:
This is what political debate in the UK has descended to. Perhaps Simon Cowell can host election night broadcasts.CarlottaVance said:
True - but if they can turn a "Vote for Leave" into a "Vote for Nigel & George" they'll be happy enough....Indigo said:
Dangerous... risks their team getting complacent.... and a reply email with pictures of McMao, Eddy Izzard and Gerry Adams... and if they are really unlucky, Emma ThompsonCarlottaVance said:Just got an email from Stronger In - "This is what we are up against - Nigel Farage and George Galloway" not a lot of ball playing going on!
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Bitch of the day?
@BBCWorldatOne
Alan Johnson: "Let's be kind, they're not the six most astute politicians that I've ever met in the Cabinet" #tw2 pic.twitter.com/lwuqT9ep0d
Retweeted by Nick Sutton0
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