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No one has previously won NH and SC and failed to win GOP nomination. It's Trump v Clinton. And Trump wins that handily.
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"DAVID WASSERMAN 7:43 PM
If I had to bet on second place, I’d put a very slight bet on Rubio over Cruz at the moment. Very early returns in Charleston County show him leading Cruz there 2-to-1, and very early returns in Greenville County show a virtual three-way tie between Trump, Rubio, and Cruz."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/nevada-caucus-south-carolina-primary-presidential-election-2016/0 -
Rubio is now favourite to finish 2nd. Not much in it.0
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Not far off the polls. Late surge by Rubio picked up. No-where near enough...HYUFD said:CNN 5% in and projects Trump has won South Carolina as well
32.2% Trump
22.4% Rubio
20.9% Cruz
10.6% Bush
8.0% Kasich
6.0% Carson
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/sc/Rep0 -
Ah. Might be a story there.stjohn said:Rubio is now favourite to finish 2nd. Not much in it.
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Could be.AndyJS said:"DAVID WASSERMAN 7:43 PM
If I had to bet on second place, I’d put a very slight bet on Rubio over Cruz at the moment. Very early returns in Charleston County show him leading Cruz there 2-to-1, and very early returns in Greenville County show a virtual three-way tie between Trump, Rubio, and Cruz."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/nevada-caucus-south-carolina-primary-presidential-election-2016/
Not entirely convinced but could be.
I say its still 50-50.0 -
Rubio's 3-5-3 strategy.Casino_Royale said:
Ah. Might be a story there.stjohn said:Rubio is now favourite to finish 2nd. Not much in it.
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He has huge negative figures, even among his own party, without THAT much in the line of attacks from the DemocratsYossariansChild said:No one has previously won NH and SC and failed to win GOP nomination. It's Trump v Clinton. And Trump wins that handily.
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges0 -
Betfair have suspended the market (?!)Casino_Royale said:
Ah. Might be a story there.stjohn said:Rubio is now favourite to finish 2nd. Not much in it.
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Cruz back in second with 7% inRodCrosby said:
Not far off the polls. Late surge by Rubio picked up. No-where near enough...HYUFD said:CNN 5% in and projects Trump has won South Carolina as well
32.2% Trump
22.4% Rubio
20.9% Cruz
10.6% Bush
8.0% Kasich
6.0% Carson
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/sc/Rep
Trump 34.2%
Cruz 21.5%
Rubio 21.1%
Bush 9.6%
Kasich 7.4%
Carson 6.1%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/sc/Rep0 -
If Rubio makes it to 2nd I think he's going to get all the "momentum" media coverage, and a bunch of money from the establishment as they give up on Bush. Wouldn't like to bet much ainst him despite Trump's strength.0
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CHeerio Jeb.
FUCK OFF BACK TO DUBYA
CHEERIO
CHEERIO
CHEERIO0 -
Betfair have suspended the SC GOP market.0
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Come on CRUUUZ0
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2 national polls this week showed Trump beating Hillary by 2 and losing to Hillary by 3, with Bloomberg in he wins convincingly.EPG said:
He has huge negative figures, even among his own party, without THAT much in the line of attacks from the DemocratsYossariansChild said:No one has previously won NH and SC and failed to win GOP nomination. It's Trump v Clinton. And Trump wins that handily.
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
And those where not Fox News polls that where the only ones previously that showed good numbers for Trump.
Look at favourabilities:
Hillary 37/57
Trump 37/57
Hillary has fallen to Trump levels.0 -
You could paint a face on my left testie and it would beat Hillary in the election.EPG said:
He has huge negative figures, even among his own party, without THAT much in the line of attacks from the DemocratsYossariansChild said:No one has previously won NH and SC and failed to win GOP nomination. It's Trump v Clinton. And Trump wins that handily.
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges0 -
Why does DecisionDesk have different figures to CNN? They have the race much closer.
http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/south-carolina-gop-primary/0 -
But WHHHYYYAndyJS said:Betfair have suspended the SC GOP market.
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Precisely my point is not that Clinton is currently ahead, but that Trump has further to fall and not just in favourable numbers - for one thing, 100 per cent of Democrats will be behind ClintonSpeedy said:
2 national polls this week showed Trump beating Hillary by 2 and losing to Hillary by 3, with Bloomberg in he wins convincingly.EPG said:
He has huge negative figures, even among his own party, without THAT much in the line of attacks from the DemocratsYossariansChild said:No one has previously won NH and SC and failed to win GOP nomination. It's Trump v Clinton. And Trump wins that handily.
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
And those where not Fox News polls that where the only ones previously that showed good numbers for Trump.
Look at favourabilities:
Hillary 37/57
Trump 37/57
Hillary has fallen to Trump levels.0 -
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
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Just possible someone other than Trump wins a CD.
Wouldn't surprise me either if it's 50-0 to Trump.0 -
Kasich now ahead of Bush.0
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Rubio would still theoretically have a chance of winning the nomination if he could consolidate the anti-Trump vote (obviously Kasich and Bush's voters should be his targets, but also I still think he has a chance of picking off some of Cruz's less-hardcore Christians) -- but the problem is it's getting very late in the day for that consolidation to take place in time. By this time in two weeks, nearly 50% of states will have voted already.NickPalmer said:If Rubio makes it to 2nd I think he's going to get all the "momentum" media coverage, and a bunch of money from the establishment as they give up on Bush. Wouldn't like to bet much ainst him despite Trump's strength.
On paper his path to the nomination is there, but he needs all the stars to align, and QUICKLY.0 -
Decision desk and CNN numbers are totally out of whack0
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That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
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Some of Kasich and Bush's voters will go to Trump and Cruz and most of Carson's. No candidate, GOP or Democrat, has lost Iowa, NH and SC and gone on to win their party's nomination, the odds very much do not favour Rubio at this pointDanny565 said:
Rubio would still theoretically have a chance of winning the nomination if he could consolidate the anti-Trump vote (obviously Kasich and Bush's voters should be his targets, but also I still think he has a chance of picking off some of Cruz's less-hardcore Christians) -- but the problem is it's getting very late in the day for that consolidation to take place in time. By this time in two weeks, nearly 50% of states will have voted already.NickPalmer said:If Rubio makes it to 2nd I think he's going to get all the "momentum" media coverage, and a bunch of money from the establishment as they give up on Bush. Wouldn't like to bet much ainst him despite Trump's strength.
On paper his path to the nomination is there, but he needs all the stars to align, and QUICKLY.0 -
I think he will get all 50 delegates, so much for the myth states being proportional before March 15th, the reality is that most states are still winner take all under certain conditions.RodCrosby said:Just possible someone other than Trump wins a CD.
Wouldn't surprise me either if it's 50-0 to Trump.0 -
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Trump has the same 34% strategy as the Labour party - except it is a winning strategy for Trump.0
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Well this one was WTA under quite explicit conditions, moderated only (perhaps) by the cube rule...Speedy said:
I think he will get all 50 delegates, so much for the myth states being proportional before March 15th, the reality is that most states are still winner take all under certain conditions.RodCrosby said:Just possible someone other than Trump wins a CD.
Wouldn't surprise me either if it's 50-0 to Trump.0 -
Fox news this week had Hillary beating Trump by 5% and Bloomberg will likely not run against Hillary. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/02/18/fox-news-poll-trump-still-leads-national-race-for-gop-nomination.htmlSpeedy said:
2 national polls this week showed Trump beating Hillary by 2 and losing to Hillary by 3, with Bloomberg in he wins convincingly.EPG said:
He has huge negative figures, even among his own party, without THAT much in the line of attacks from the DemocratsYossariansChild said:No one has previously won NH and SC and failed to win GOP nomination. It's Trump v Clinton. And Trump wins that handily.
Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
And those where not Fox News polls that where the only ones previously that showed good numbers for Trump.
Look at favourabilities:
Hillary 37/57
Trump 37/57
Hillary has fallen to Trump levels.
It will be close but I think Hillary beats Trump by about 1% or less0 -
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
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I'm not sure Jeb -> Rubio is a 1:1 transfer, Rubio comes across as way more right wing.0
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Never in the history of politics has there been a 1:1 transfer. Not even where you get multiple votes.Pulpstar said:I'm not sure Jeb -> Rubio is a 1:1 transfer, Rubio comes across as way more right wing.
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The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
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Kasich close to leapfrogging Bush.0
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Rubio will probably get 80% of Bush votes, Kasich the other 20, maybe Trump will get some crumbs.Pulpstar said:I'm not sure Jeb -> Rubio is a 1:1 transfer, Rubio comes across as way more right wing.
But Bush doesn't have many votes, apart from Florida he is usually at 2,3,4%.0 -
Donald Trump is an implied 3.3 right now for Pres !!0
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Kasich has barely bothered to turn up.Danny565 said:Kasich close to leapfrogging Bush.
Also why oh why is betfair down?
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Kasich just tweeted he is staying in at least until Super Tuesday, bad news for RubioDanny565 said:Kasich close to leapfrogging Bush.
'We're hitting up four states over the next four days. In VA, GA, MS or LA? Check out our events page to RSVP! '
https://twitter.com/JohnKasich?lang=en-gb0 -
The media narrative might be all Rubio and the GOP establishment will be cheering him on but what states does he actually win on Super Tuesday? Not as many as Trump or Cruz thats for sure. The race for the nomination is over. Trump's won.0
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If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 1850 -
The Others just continue to cancel each other out...HYUFD said:
Kasich just tweeted he is staying in at least until Super Tuesday, bad news for RubioDanny565 said:Kasich close to leapfrogging Bush.
'We're hitting up four states over the next four days. In VA, GA, MS or LA? Check out our events page to RSVP! '
https://twitter.com/JohnKasich?lang=en-gb0 -
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
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Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 1850 -
Arf Rubio and Cruz identical0
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Christie said his trip to SC was already booked.RodCrosby said:
The Others just continue to cancel each other out...HYUFD said:
Kasich just tweeted he is staying in at least until Super Tuesday, bad news for RubioDanny565 said:Kasich close to leapfrogging Bush.
'We're hitting up four states over the next four days. In VA, GA, MS or LA? Check out our events page to RSVP! '
https://twitter.com/JohnKasich?lang=en-gb
Basically you're in until you aren't.
Having said that Kasich has barely tried here, so that's different from Christie who poured everything into NH0 -
Punters judging by their implied odds.RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 1850 -
DD keeps showing Rubio ahead...Pulpstar said:Arf Rubio and Cruz identical
I'm cashing out at a small loss so my win on Trump can stand.
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Looking at Super Tuesday, Kasich could maybe win Vermont? Left-wing state with a primary open to all voters. Doesn't seem like great territory for the "Big 3".
He ain't winning the nomination obviously, but I guess he may as well stay in to make a pitch for the VP spot / a future presidential run.0 -
It's confirmed Trump will get all 50 delegates.0
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0.2% separating Cruz and Rubio.0
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Trump is going to CRUSH Nevada. He's a massive employer there for one./0
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It seems the endorsement by all elected officials, except Sanford and Graham, and every local media for Rubio got him an extra 7 points.
So endorsements matter, but only in close races.0 -
It might be difficult for Hillary to maintain the same level of turnout among minorities that Obama did.HYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
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Trump is leading in Vermont by a lot.Danny565 said:Looking at Super Tuesday, Kasich could maybe win Vermont? Left-wing state with a primary open to all voters. Doesn't seem like great territory for the "Big 3".
He ain't winning the nomination obviously, but I guess he may as well stay in to make a pitch for the VP spot / a future presidential run.
The only state that Trump is losing in the polls is Texas, and that one to Cruz.0 -
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.HYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
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Haley's approval rating is almost 90%. Sen. Tim Scott also has sky high approval ratings. I think it depends who and where it is. The dream endorsements used to be local papers, but no more.Speedy said:It seems the endorsement by all elected officials, except Sanford and Graham, and every local media for Rubio got him an extra 7 points.
So endorsements matter, but only in close races.0 -
Ignore them. The last DEM to win an election after 2 (or more) previous terms was almost 70 years ago, and he was a new incumbent...Pulpstar said:
Punters judging by their implied odds.RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
Only one non-incumbent DEM has achieved it. Van Buren in 1836, and he at least was Veep.
It's the GOP's to lose.0 -
Trump defended planned parenthood in the last debate, and he's winning amongst evangelicals in South Carolina.
THAT is astounding0 -
Cruz back to 2nd.0
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Bush less than 5,000 votes ahead of Carson in sixth place.0
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No, wrong. Hispanics despise Trump and would vote for Satan if he was on the ballot against him, women will also vote for Hillary over Trump, though Trump will win white men by a large margin. North Carolina and Florida go to Trump, maybe New Hampshire, Colorado and Iowa too but Hillary wins Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania and Virginia, enough for a narrow Clinton winYossariansChild said:
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.HYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
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Florida?HYUFD said:
No, wrong. Hispanics despise Trump and would vote for Satan if he was on the ballot against him, women will also vote for Hillary over Trump, though Trump will win white men by a large margin. North Carolina and Florida go to Trump, maybe New Hampshire, Colorado and Iowa too but Hillary wins Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania and Virginia, enough for a narrow Clinton winYossariansChild said:
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.HYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
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Yes, well looks like they are quite willing to lose it!!! If Rubio or Kascih were GOP nominee the GOP would almost certainly win, Trump or Cruz offers the Dems a get out of jail free card! Bush Snr also managed it for the GOP in 1988RodCrosby said:
Ignore them. The last DEM to win an election after 2 (or more) previous terms was almost 70 years ago, and he was a new incumbent...Pulpstar said:
Punters judging by their implied odds.RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
Only one non-incumbent DEM has achieved it. Van Buren in 1836, and he at least was Veep.
It's the GOP's to lose.0 -
Not true.HYUFD said:
No, wrong. Hispanics despise Trump and would vote for Satan if he was on the ballot against him, women will also vote for Hillary over Trump, though Trump will win white men by a large margin. North Carolina and Florida go to Trump, maybe New Hampshire, Colorado and Iowa too but Hillary wins Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania and Virginia, enough for a narrow Clinton winYossariansChild said:
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.HYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/12/breaking-poll-40-of-blacks-line-behind-trump-45-of-hispanics/
Trump will not do worse than Romney with these groups.0 -
With the (currently) Six Cabinet Ministers lined up with Vote Leave does that increase their chance of being the 'official' Electoral Commission body? Instead of 'Barking' or 'Whining' ('Moaning' - the Nats already have 'Whining' - ed)0
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Jeb's votes will split to Kasich, Rubio and Trump methinks.0
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You forget Clinton, who cancels any toxicity in the GOP candidate.HYUFD said:
Yes, well looks like they are quite willing to lose it!!! If Rubio or Kascih were GOP nominee the GOP would almost certainly win, Trump or Cruz offers the Dems a get out of jail free card! Bush Snr also managed it for the GOP in 1988RodCrosby said:
Ignore them. The last DEM to win an election after 2 (or more) previous terms was almost 70 years ago, and he was a new incumbent...Pulpstar said:
Punters judging by their implied odds.RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
Only one non-incumbent DEM has achieved it. Van Buren in 1836, and he at least was Veep.
It's the GOP's to lose.
She trumps Trump in that department!
Besides, candidates are shown to have negligible impact on the fundamentals of the cycle...0 -
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8%RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/0 -
And that was worth only 7%.Tim_B said:
Haley's approval rating is almost 90%. Sen. Tim Scott also has sky high approval ratings. I think it depends who and where it is. The dream endorsements used to be local papers, but no more.Speedy said:It seems the endorsement by all elected officials, except Sanford and Graham, and every local media for Rubio got him an extra 7 points.
So endorsements matter, but only in close races.
I told you that the Haley endorsement isn't worth much, it didn't give victory to Romney in 2012 and it didn't for Rubio in 2016.0 -
I'm the one who lives in GA. TimT lives in the DC suburbs. He - I think, but he can speak for himself - is a Rubio / Kasich supporter.Pulpstar said:@Tim_B Decided who you're voting for, and where if I may ask. TimT was Georgia/Rubio iirc..
I haven't decided yet. I'll be spending next week going to a lot of meetings.
I wish I could find my post comparing TimB and TimT to remove any confusion.0 -
Ohio and Pennsylvania blue-collar W/C voters will give them to Trump (no matter how often they wheel out Bill and Biden. Virginia trending GOP, Nevada - Trump casinos - it goes Trump. Trump wins (and he doesnt need to try particularly hard)HYUFD said:
No, wrong. Hispanics despise Trump and would vote for Satan if he was on the ballot against him, women will also vote for Hillary over Trump, though Trump will win white men by a large margin. North Carolina and Florida go to Trump, maybe New Hampshire, Colorado and Iowa too but Hillary wins Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania and Virginia, enough for a narrow Clinton winYossariansChild said:
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.HYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
0 -
Looks like Bush has spent around $230 per vote won. $14 million for about 60,000 votes.0
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Bush doesn't have many votes, he has 3% in Nevada, 5% nationally.MTimT said:
Mostly to Kasich and Rubio, in that order. Don't think there'll be many going to Trump or Cruz.Pulpstar said:Jeb's votes will split to Kasich, Rubio and Trump methinks.
That's why those who drop out dont matter a lot since they already have very few votes.0 -
National polls based on hypothetical match-ups this far out are even more meaningless than usual; its state polls that matter.HYUFD said:
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8%RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/0 -
The CNN anchor is great.0
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If all you needed was the polls, you wouldn't need PB and its successful contrarian pundits now, would you?HYUFD said:
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8%RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
0 -
No, the statement was correct. The Quinnipiac general election poll last week had Trump winning just 17% of Hispanics against Hillary, Rubio won 30% of Hispanics. Romney won 27% of the Hispanic vote in 2012 so Trump does 10% worse than he did!williamglenn said:
Not true.HYUFD said:
No, wrong. Hispanics despise Trump and would vote for Satan if he was on the ballot against him, women will also vote for Hillary over Trump, though Trump will win white men by a large margin. North Carolina and Florida go to Trump, maybe New Hampshire, Colorado and Iowa too but Hillary wins Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania and Virginia, enough for a narrow Clinton winYossariansChild said:
Nothing like taking your voters for granted. Without Obama on the ticket Dem turnout will be lower. Ohio and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida all go Trump he wins.HYUFD said:
Hispanics, minorities and women will win it for Hillarywilliamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/12/breaking-poll-40-of-blacks-line-behind-trump-45-of-hispanics/
Trump will not do worse than Romney with these groups.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us02182016_Urpfd42.pdf0 -
Ah my apologies !Tim_B said:
I'm the one who lives in GA. TimT lives in the DC suburbs. He - I think, but he can speak for himself - is a Rubio / Kasich supporter.Pulpstar said:@Tim_B Decided who you're voting for, and where if I may ask. TimT was Georgia/Rubio iirc..
I haven't decided yet. I'll be spending next week going to a lot of meetings.0 -
Greenville and Spartanburg will decide who comes second.0
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JEB BUSH DROPPING OUT.0
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Bush drops out.0
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If you've got the capital, lay Jeb Bush at any price about to suspend0
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Wow. Bush gone.0
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Indeed but until the evidence changes I will go on the evidence we have, delightful though these arguments areRodCrosby said:
If all you needed was the polls, you wouldn't need PB and its successful contrarian pundits now, would you?HYUFD said:
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8%RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/0 -
CNN: 60 votes separating Rubio and Cruz.0
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Only once has the loser of the popular vote won the EC vote in the last 50 years, George W Bush and he lost the popular vote by less than 1%YossariansChild said:
National polls based on hypothetical match-ups this far out are even more meaningless than usual; its state polls that matter.HYUFD said:
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8%RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/0 -
I like Jeb Bush.0
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Polls at this stage are not evidence of anything - except perhaps too many polls...HYUFD said:
Indeed but until the evidence changes I will go on the evidence we have, delightful though these arguments areRodCrosby said:
If all you needed was the polls, you wouldn't need PB and its successful contrarian pundits now, would you?HYUFD said:
The polls. Rubio leads Clinton by 4.7% in the RCP poll average, Clinton leads Trump by 2.8%. Rubio and Sanders are tied, Sanders leads Trump by 7.8%RodCrosby said:
Says who?HYUFD said:
If Kasich or Rubio were the GOP candidate it would favour them, but if it is Trump and Cruz then it does not and Hillary must be favourite to narrowly winRodCrosby said:
The pendulum, aka regressive component, favours the GOP massively in 2016.williamglenn said:
It's a geographic election. Trump will win over enough Reagan democrats in the flyover states to swing the election. It won't matter if some Republicans aren't willing to hold their nose and vote Trump because they'll all be in the places where Clinton will pile up votes anyway.EPG said:
That is one way to look at it - another way is that she insulted him, he insulted her, scores even - I don't think that it will be a surfeit of negatives from Democrats but a deficit of positives among Republicans that will defeat Trump qua nomineewilliamglenn said:
She's never had to face someone with Trump's gift for trolling. She backed off very quickly when he showed he was willing to bring up the details of her past as a fixer for her husband.EPG said:Clinton has had all the attacks from the Republicans already; she wins if she is not subjected to criminal charges
my first long-range 2016 forecast...
REP 53.4% 353
DEM 46.6% 185
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/0
This discussion has been closed.