politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post EU deal referendum poll has REMAIN with 15% lead
Comments
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Donald Trump is a disgusting excuse of a human being.
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/7010844438893813770 -
Scheisse.Speedy said:S.C Exit poll:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219
Very Conservative 40
Somewhat Conservative 42
Moderate 17
Liberal 1
Bad numbers for Trump.
Who ran the most unfair campaign
Trump 41
Cruz 33
Rubio 7
Bush 7
Kasich 3
Bad news for Trump and Cruz.
Important issues
Terrorism 32
Economy 28
Government Spending 27
Immigration 10
Bad news for Trump
Experience 48
Outsider 46
Bad news for Trump.
Do religious beliefs matter for your candidate
A great deal 45
Somewhat 32
Not much 11
Not at all 11
Bad news for Trump.0 -
There are more than three ethnic minority voters here.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Murali has a Sri Lankan Tamil background for instance, have a feeling he is in the "In" camp.
And Ms Apocalypse.0 -
Trump is ahead on google trendsSpeedy said:Best candidate to handle Terrorism
Cruz 31
Trump 27
Rubio 25
Best candidate to handle the Supreme Court nomination
Cruz 30
Trump 26
Rubio 21
It looks like Cruz and Rubio are going to win S.C. , Google Trends was correct.0 -
That's a brave call from Peston! Hope it turns out to be true.TheScreamingEagles said:
@rcs1000 The following article date of the start of the collapse of the Euro as 2016.202 isn't the 20th August as you've stated but the 13th / 14th March (0.202 x 366 is around 74 days into 2016):
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/euro/is-the-pending-euro-collapse-on-target-from-our-2011-forecast-of-2016-202/
I think Armstrong has stated that the final collapse and breakup of the Euro should be in the 2018 / 2019 timeframe - we shall see on that one.0 -
The polls haven't closed, but based on the part of the exit polls that have been published Trump has lost.Casino_Royale said:
Scheisse.Speedy said:S.C Exit poll:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219
Very Conservative 40
Somewhat Conservative 42
Moderate 17
Liberal 1
Bad numbers for Trump.
Who ran the most unfair campaign
Trump 41
Cruz 33
Rubio 7
Bush 7
Kasich 3
Bad news for Trump and Cruz.
Important issues
Terrorism 32
Economy 28
Government Spending 27
Immigration 10
Bad news for Trump
Experience 48
Outsider 46
Bad news for Trump.
Do religious beliefs matter for your candidate
A great deal 45
Somewhat 32
Not much 11
Not at all 11
Bad news for Trump.
If seems Trump wins only on days that Sanders wins.0 -
David Cameron is finished whatever happens in the EU referendum
The Prime Minister wasn’t the only one to call the split in his party wrongly but he will be its first casualty
John Rentoul @johnrentoul
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/david-cameron-is-finished-whatever-happens-in-the-eu-referendum-a6886361.html0 -
My badMyBurningEars said:
There are more than three ethnic minority voters here.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Murali has a Sri Lankan Tamil background for instance, have a feeling he is in the "In" camp.
And Ms Apocalypse.0 -
Considering he's already announced he's retiring this Parliament that's not exactly "news".Tykejohnno said:David Cameron is finished whatever happens in the EU referendum
The Prime Minister wasn’t the only one to call the split in his party wrongly but he will be its first casualty
John Rentoul @johnrentoul
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/david-cameron-is-finished-whatever-happens-in-the-eu-referendum-a6886361.html0 -
That's true, but what can you do? Gove is a better man but he has said he does not want to be leader and I believe him.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. But his lack of principle has been thoroughly exposed. He's sat on the fence and calculated what works best for him, as others have declared on the basis of sincerely-held belief.PeterC said:
Not so. If Boris backs LEAVE he gets a high profile, something he has lacked since returning to parliament. If LEAVE wins he becomes PM within weeks. If REMAIN wins Tory activists will make him leader in preference to Osborne as an act of revenge on the REMAINers. If Boris backs REMAIN he becomes a great big disappoinment, his profile diminishes and his leadership prospects crash.Roger said:They seem pretty convinced it's a done deal with Boris and he's joining the Outers. If as we all think his principles extend as far as his leadership ambitions this seems like a rather foolish move.
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John Rentoul?Tykejohnno said:David Cameron is finished whatever happens in the EU referendum
The Prime Minister wasn’t the only one to call the split in his party wrongly but he will be its first casualty
John Rentoul @johnrentoul
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/david-cameron-is-finished-whatever-happens-in-the-eu-referendum-a6886361.html
The super blairite?
He says that Cameron is finished?0 -
I'm half Jamaican and supporting Leave!!MyBurningEars said:
There are more than three ethnic minority voters here.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Murali has a Sri Lankan Tamil background for instance, have a feeling he is in the "In" camp.
And Ms Apocalypse.0 -
...if you really believe that "Miss Apocalypse" is who he says he is.MyBurningEars said:
There are more than three ethnic minority voters here.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Murali has a Sri Lankan Tamil background for instance, have a feeling he is in the "In" camp.
And Ms Apocalypse.0 -
If that's true, I'm f-cked.Speedy said:
The polls haven't closed, but based on the part of the exit polls that have been published Trump has lost.Casino_Royale said:
Scheisse.Speedy said:S.C Exit poll:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219
Very Conservative 40
Somewhat Conservative 42
Moderate 17
Liberal 1
Bad numbers for Trump.
Who ran the most unfair campaign
Trump 41
Cruz 33
Rubio 7
Bush 7
Kasich 3
Bad news for Trump and Cruz.
Important issues
Terrorism 32
Economy 28
Government Spending 27
Immigration 10
Bad news for Trump
Experience 48
Outsider 46
Bad news for Trump.
Do religious beliefs matter for your candidate
A great deal 45
Somewhat 32
Not much 11
Not at all 11
Bad news for Trump.
If seems Trump wins only on days that Sanders wins.0 -
I think that might have been me. Certainly I have said in the past that some of the most English people I have ever met are neither white nor born in this country.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes Max.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Who's the third? Must be Max.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
BTW given that my mum and dad were already resident in blighty before I was born, chances are high that I was conceived here
As someone posted on PB years ago, it doesn't matter where you were born, or what your passport stays. Being British/English is a state of mind.
I can't think of anything more British than train spotting.0 -
You still have the opportunity to sell.Casino_Royale said:
If that's true, I'm f-cked.Speedy said:
The polls haven't closed, but based on the part of the exit polls that have been published Trump has lost.Casino_Royale said:
Scheisse.Speedy said:S.C Exit poll:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219
Very Conservative 40
Somewhat Conservative 42
Moderate 17
Liberal 1
Bad numbers for Trump.
Who ran the most unfair campaign
Trump 41
Cruz 33
Rubio 7
Bush 7
Kasich 3
Bad news for Trump and Cruz.
Important issues
Terrorism 32
Economy 28
Government Spending 27
Immigration 10
Bad news for Trump
Experience 48
Outsider 46
Bad news for Trump.
Do religious beliefs matter for your candidate
A great deal 45
Somewhat 32
Not much 11
Not at all 11
Bad news for Trump.
If seems Trump wins only on days that Sanders wins.0 -
CNN on Freesat has now gone over to the US programming.0
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Trump 1.16
Rubio 20
Cruz 240 -
No real evidence for that at all, voters are saying they want a ban on Muslims entering the country and terrorism is the most important issue and you are already saying Trump has lost before polls have even closed, CALM DOWN!!!!Speedy said:
The polls haven't closed, but based on the part of the exit polls that have been published Trump has lost.Casino_Royale said:
Scheisse.Speedy said:S.C Exit poll:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219
Very Conservative 40
Somewhat Conservative 42
Moderate 17
Liberal 1
Bad numbers for Trump.
Who ran the most unfair campaign
Trump 41
Cruz 33
Rubio 7
Bush 7
Kasich 3
Bad news for Trump and Cruz.
Important issues
Terrorism 32
Economy 28
Government Spending 27
Immigration 10
Bad news for Trump
Experience 48
Outsider 46
Bad news for Trump.
Do religious beliefs matter for your candidate
A great deal 45
Somewhat 32
Not much 11
Not at all 11
Bad news for Trump.
If seems Trump wins only on days that Sanders wins.0 -
For all the accusations of a PB "hive mind", there's quite a lot of diversity here. The age and education and economic demographics are rather disproportionate compared to the UK as a whole, and the party preferences are a bit out of whack, but it's not homogeneous.TheScreamingEagles said:
My badMyBurningEars said:
There are more than three ethnic minority voters here.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Murali has a Sri Lankan Tamil background for instance, have a feeling he is in the "In" camp.
And Ms Apocalypse.0 -
He's still 1.06 on Betfair.Speedy said:
You still have the opportunity to sell.Casino_Royale said:
If that's true, I'm f-cked.Speedy said:
The polls haven't closed, but based on the part of the exit polls that have been published Trump has lost.Casino_Royale said:
Scheisse.Speedy said:S.C Exit poll:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219
Very Conservative 40
Somewhat Conservative 42
Moderate 17
Liberal 1
Bad numbers for Trump.
Who ran the most unfair campaign
Trump 41
Cruz 33
Rubio 7
Bush 7
Kasich 3
Bad news for Trump and Cruz.
Important issues
Terrorism 32
Economy 28
Government Spending 27
Immigration 10
Bad news for Trump
Experience 48
Outsider 46
Bad news for Trump.
Do religious beliefs matter for your candidate
A great deal 45
Somewhat 32
Not much 11
Not at all 11
Bad news for Trump.
If seems Trump wins only on days that Sanders wins.
I've bought £10 of Cruz at 240 -
Survation
Among respondents aware of the renegotiation, voting intention n=646 tighter Leave 35% (+2) Remain 43% (-5) and more undecided – 22% (+3).0 -
Tim Alberta @TimAlberta 1h1 hour ago
CNN says South Carolina exit polls show 73% of GOP voters self-identified evangelicals. Up from 65% in 2012. Wow.
Evan Siegfried @evansiegfried 30m30 minutes ago
Exit polls showing Rubio being the candidate of choice of late deciders in South Carolina. #SCPrimary #SCforMarco
More evidence pointing to a Trump loss.0 -
Eh?TheScreamingEagles said:Survation
Among respondents aware of the renegotiation, voting intention n=646 tighter Leave 35% (+2) Remain 43% (-5) and more undecided – 22% (+3).0 -
I thought it was you, but didn't want to misquote you.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think that might have been me. Certainly I have said in the past that some of the most English people I have ever met are neither white nor born in this country.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes Max.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Who's the third? Must be Max.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
BTW given that my mum and dad were already resident in blighty before I was born, chances are high that I was conceived here
As someone posted on PB years ago, it doesn't matter where you were born, or what your passport stays. Being British/English is a state of mind.
I can't think of anything more British than train spotting.0 -
In any case if Cruz were to win with Rubio third that confirms it is a Trump v Cruz battle and effectively kills off Rubio0
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Yep.NorfolkTilIDie said:Donald Trump is a disgusting excuse of a human being.
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/7010844438893813770 -
If Boris has chosen Leave he has chosen the objectively correct gamble for him.0
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From the exit polls:
Angry with government
Trump 38
Cruz 28
Rubio 18
Carson 8
The only part that looks remotely like the opinion polls.0 -
Hadn't twigged that! I think Ms Apocalypse thought she was the only black poster.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I'm half Jamaican and supporting Leave!!MyBurningEars said:
There are more than three ethnic minority voters here.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Murali has a Sri Lankan Tamil background for instance, have a feeling he is in the "In" camp.
And Ms Apocalypse.0 -
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Osborne will have no choice but to go after Boris now. That could be interesting.0
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I'd agree with that. The poster I most identify with is Southam Observer - which may very well upset him, given he's Labour and I am so very not.MyBurningEars said:
For all the accusations of a PB "hive mind", there's quite a lot of diversity here. The age and education and economic demographics are rather disproportionate compared to the UK as a whole, and the party preferences are a bit out of whack, but it's not homogeneous.TheScreamingEagles said:
My badMyBurningEars said:
There are more than three ethnic minority voters here.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Murali has a Sri Lankan Tamil background for instance, have a feeling he is in the "In" camp.
And Ms Apocalypse.0 -
But it would look something like Cruz 26, Trump 24, Rubio 20, Bush 10, Kasich 10, Carson 10HYUFD said:In any case if Cruz were to win with Rubio third that confirms it is a Trump v Cruz battle and effectively kills off Rubio
Rubio could wait for Bush to drop out and stake his claim on the non-psycho path0 -
£76 at 24 available for Cruz on Betfair for South Carolina..HYUFD said:In any case if Cruz were to win with Rubio third that confirms it is a Trump v Cruz battle and effectively kills off Rubio
0 -
All Tories need to play the ball not the man.SouthamObserver said:Osborne will have no choice but to go after Boris now. That could be interesting.
0 -
MSNBC is hinting that Trump lost, but its too close among Rubio and Cruz for first place.0
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Very good news for Con chances of winning GE 2020.
This should guarantee that someone like Fox can't win the leadership.0 -
If Trump is third that will be a big shock won't it?Speedy said:MSNBC is hinting that Trump lost, but its too close among Rubio and Cruz for first place.
0 -
That's the part of the sample that were following the news of the deal closely.Danny565 said:
Eh?TheScreamingEagles said:Survation
Among respondents aware of the renegotiation, voting intention n=646 tighter Leave 35% (+2) Remain 43% (-5) and more undecided – 22% (+3).0 -
Exit poll
Late deciders
Rubio 30
Cruz 28
Trump 16
Kasich 11
They could be around 40-45%.0 -
Choosing Fox would be like the Tories saying we want to give Corbyn a fair chance of winning.MikeL said:Very good news for Con chances of winning GE 2020.
This should guarantee that someone like Fox can't win the leadership.0 -
Thats Marco "ban abortion even for rape victims" Rubio??EPG said:
But it would look something like Cruz 26, Trump 24, Rubio 20, Bush 10, Kasich 10, Carson 10HYUFD said:In any case if Cruz were to win with Rubio third that confirms it is a Trump v Cruz battle and effectively kills off Rubio
Rubio could wait for Bush to drop out and stake his claim on the non-psycho path0 -
I've just put £10 on Cruz. Don't expect to win.Casino_Royale said:
£76 at 24 available for Cruz on Betfair for South Carolina..HYUFD said:In any case if Cruz were to win with Rubio third that confirms it is a Trump v Cruz battle and effectively kills off Rubio
0 -
Sunil's newly-added routes for 2016 (carrying on the 2015 campaign!):TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes Max.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Who's the third? Must be Max.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
BTW given that my mum and dad were already resident in blighty before I was born, chances are high that I was conceived here
As someone posted on PB years ago, it doesn't matter where you were born, or what your passport stays. Being British/English is a state of mind.
I can't think of anything more British than train spotting.
Feb 19th - Chester to Liverpool James Street via Birkenhead, AND Liverpool Lime Street to James Street (clockwise)
Feb 12th - Alderley Edge to Cheadle Hulme, AND Manchester Piccadilly to Ashton-under-Lyne (Metrolink)
Feb 5th - Nottingham Station to Hucknall (NET trams)
Jan 24th - Manningtree to Harwich Town
Jan 17th - Ashford to Eastbourne via Hastings
Jan 11th - Overton (Hants.) to Salisbury
Jan 8th - Kidsgrove to Manchester Piccadilly via Macclesfield
0 -
I'm not quite sure what he expected Cameron to do. A better deal might have led to less Outers, but it would still have been a very large number regardless of what he brought back. So it's not that Cameron called the split wrongly, it's just that he's not minimized the split as much as he had hoped he could, and that makes staying on indefinitely even if he wins not an option. Which Cameron probably already knew, hence why despite some people thinking him staying on in 2020 would have been a good idea, he ruled it out ages ago and hasn't changed his mind.Tykejohnno said:David Cameron is finished whatever happens in the EU referendum
The Prime Minister wasn’t the only one to call the split in his party wrongly but he will be its first casualty
John Rentoul @johnrentoul
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/david-cameron-is-finished-whatever-happens-in-the-eu-referendum-a6886361.html0 -
That's bloody huge news.Speedy said:MSNBC is hinting that Trump lost, but its too close among Rubio and Cruz for first place.
If true.0 -
I stand by it very strongly.TheScreamingEagles said:
I thought it was you, but didn't want to misquote you.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think that might have been me. Certainly I have said in the past that some of the most English people I have ever met are neither white nor born in this country.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes Max.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Who's the third? Must be Max.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
BTW given that my mum and dad were already resident in blighty before I was born, chances are high that I was conceived here
As someone posted on PB years ago, it doesn't matter where you were born, or what your passport stays. Being British/English is a state of mind.
I can't think of anything more British than train spotting.
As an example even after the number of years a lot of us have interacted on here and the many many tens of thousands of words we have exchanged would defy anyone to say who was and wasn't non British or non white if they hadn't made it overtly clear either by telling people or, in Sunil's and Murali's case making it clear through their names.0 -
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Surely not!Casino_Royale said:
That's bloody huge news.Speedy said:MSNBC is hinting that Trump lost, but its too close among Rubio and Cruz for first place.
If true.0 -
Until some weeks ago,I wouldn't have posted this sh!t,I respected cameron,now I can't stand the man,he just turned out to be a Europhile liar who has kept up the bull for the last 40 years.Philip_Thompson said:
Considering he's already announced he's retiring this Parliament that's not exactly "news".Tykejohnno said:David Cameron is finished whatever happens in the EU referendum
The Prime Minister wasn’t the only one to call the split in his party wrongly but he will be its first casualty
John Rentoul @johnrentoul
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/david-cameron-is-finished-whatever-happens-in-the-eu-referendum-a6886361.html
Good riddance when the time come's.0 -
Rubio and Cruz got 58% of late deciders, Trump only 16%.Casino_Royale said:
That's bloody huge news.Speedy said:MSNBC is hinting that Trump lost, but its too close among Rubio and Cruz for first place.
If true.
Looks bad for Trump.
I advise you to cover up.0 -
CorrectNorfolkTilIDie said:
Thats Marco "ban abortion even for rape victims" Rubio??EPG said:
But it would look something like Cruz 26, Trump 24, Rubio 20, Bush 10, Kasich 10, Carson 10HYUFD said:In any case if Cruz were to win with Rubio third that confirms it is a Trump v Cruz battle and effectively kills off Rubio
Rubio could wait for Bush to drop out and stake his claim on the non-psycho path
Marco "Tea Party" Rubio is now the mainstream of the US Republican Party
This is why despite Democrat despair in the last two years, they were always slight favourites0 -
With evangelical turnout on top, good chance that Cruz has won.Speedy said:Exit poll
Late deciders
Rubio 30
Cruz 28
Trump 16
Kasich 11
They could be around 40-45%.0 -
Well, "black" might be stretching it since my Dad was only mixed race!! He also had a Welsh last name!!MyBurningEars said:
Hadn't twigged that! I think Ms Apocalypse thought she was the only black poster.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I'm half Jamaican and supporting Leave!!MyBurningEars said:
There are more than three ethnic minority voters here.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Murali has a Sri Lankan Tamil background for instance, have a feeling he is in the "In" camp.
And Ms Apocalypse.0 -
So the grand ride for both of them may be coming to an end soon, at least as genuine contenders? Despite already tiring of the campaign, that almost makes me a little sad.Speedy said:
The polls haven't closed, but based on the part of the exit polls that have been published Trump has lost.Casino_Royale said:
Scheisse.Speedy said:S.C Exit poll:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-gop-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37077219
Very Consr Trump.
If seems Trump wins only on days that Sanders wins.0 -
Trump trailed badly in late deciders in NH too.Speedy said:
Rubio and Cruz got 58% of late deciders, Trump only 16%.Casino_Royale said:
That's bloody huge news.Speedy said:MSNBC is hinting that Trump lost, but its too close among Rubio and Cruz for first place.
If true.
Looks bad for Trump.
I advise you to cover up.
Trump has led the polls in SC consistently.0 -
Those who are angry with the federal government are 40%
Trump 38
Cruz 28
Rubio 18
So Trump at least got 15%.0 -
He got 21, Kasich who got the most got 22.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trump trailed badly in late deciders in NH too.Speedy said:
Rubio and Cruz got 58% of late deciders, Trump only 16%.Casino_Royale said:
That's bloody huge news.Speedy said:MSNBC is hinting that Trump lost, but its too close among Rubio and Cruz for first place.
If true.
Looks bad for Trump.
I advise you to cover up.
Trump has led the polls in SC consistently.0 -
Carson would also be likely to drop out tooEPG said:
But it would look something like Cruz 26, Trump 24, Rubio 20, Bush 10, Kasich 10, Carson 10HYUFD said:In any case if Cruz were to win with Rubio third that confirms it is a Trump v Cruz battle and effectively kills off Rubio
Rubio could wait for Bush to drop out and stake his claim on the non-psycho path0 -
All their actions show that George and Boris are interested in one thing only - being the next PM. As they have shown, they'll do whatever they believe is necessary to achieve that.Philip_Thompson said:
All Tories need to play the ball not the man.SouthamObserver said:Osborne will have no choice but to go after Boris now. That could be interesting.
0 -
Indeed.Philip_Thompson said:
Choosing Fox would be like the Tories saying we want to give Corbyn a fair chance of winning.MikeL said:Very good news for Con chances of winning GE 2020.
This should guarantee that someone like Fox can't win the leadership.
You need 33.4% of the MPs' votes to get into the Final 2.
If Boris backs Remain then almost everyone on the Out side is voter unfriendly - yet if MPs vote on "EU lines" there would be a very good chance of one of them making the Final 2. That person may very well win as per IDS.
But with Boris on the Out side he mops up a large amount of the Out MPs which then means nobody else on the Out side has any chance of making the Final 2.
Con odds of winning GE 2020 have just increased very substantially.0 -
That is like the sort sucker "acca"'s that all the bookies are constantly pushing these days.AndyJS said:0 -
Rubio 8.60
-
I've now got £500 profit if Cruz wins South Carolina, £40 for Marco.Speedy said:
Rubio and Cruz got 58% of late deciders, Trump only 16%.Casino_Royale said:
That's bloody huge news.Speedy said:MSNBC is hinting that Trump lost, but its too close among Rubio and Cruz for first place.
If true.
Looks bad for Trump.
I advise you to cover up.
I've ditched £100 of liability on Trump on Republican nominee.
I've backed Marco with an extra £30 on Next President, so £350 up there.
I will "cash out" in an emergency for a £50 loss, rather than carry a £400 liability on Marco on nominee.0 -
Although I don't rate Brois very highly, he is 9:1 the best Con leadership candidate on the "out" side. As I've said before that won't swing the member/public vote, but may help him in the MPs' ballot.MikeL said:
Indeed.Philip_Thompson said:
Choosing Fox would be like the Tories saying we want to give Corbyn a fair chance of winning.MikeL said:Very good news for Con chances of winning GE 2020.
This should guarantee that someone like Fox can't win the leadership.
You need 33.4% of the MPs' votes to get into the Final 2.
If Boris backs Remain then almost everyone on the Out side is voter unfriendly - yet if MPs vote on "EU lines" there would be a very good chance of one of them making the Final 2. That person may very well win as per IDS.
But with Boris on the Out side he mops up a large amount of the Out MPs which then means nobody else on the Out side has any chance of making the Final 2.
Con odds of winning GE 2020 have just increased very substantially.0 -
45% are late deciders
Rubio 30
Cruz 28
Trump 16
Trump has probably lost, but we don't know who won.0 -
I had no idea either - I knew about Ms Apocalypse.NorfolkTilIDie said:
Well, "black" might be stretching it since my Dad was only mixed race!! He also had a Welsh last name!!MyBurningEars said:
Hadn't twigged that! I think Ms Apocalypse thought she was the only black poster.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I'm half Jamaican and supporting Leave!!MyBurningEars said:
There are more than three ethnic minority voters here.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Murali has a Sri Lankan Tamil background for instance, have a feeling he is in the "In" camp.
And Ms Apocalypse.0 -
What do we know about Conservative MPs and their attitude toward Boris? Will he make the final two even as an Outer? I always think of the sceptics as roundheads and maybe they are too grave of countenance to countenance him as leader; I assume they are happy to take principle over popularity0
-
Knowing my luck, he'll have narrowly won, but with both Rubio/Cruz snapping at his heels guaranteeing I fail to win on primary market and have big exposure on nominee market too!Speedy said:45% are late deciders
Rubio 30
Cruz 28
Trump 16
Trump has probably lost, but we don't know who won.
Is there a God?0 -
Pulps and I got smashed by a third place performance in Iowa that was somehow a victory. Lightening as they say...Casino_Royale said:
Knowing my luck, he'll have narrowly won, but with both Rubio/Cruz snapping at his heels guaranteeing I fail to win on primary market and have big exposure on nominee market too!Speedy said:45% are late deciders
Rubio 30
Cruz 28
Trump 16
Trump has probably lost, but we don't know who won.
Is there a God?
I've covered Cruz since he's at 23/1.0 -
Does anyone know when we get the updated immigration figures ?0
-
Mind you, based on name alone, what would you make of Trevor McDonald?NorfolkTilIDie said:
Well, "black" might be stretching it since my Dad was only mixed race!! He also had a Welsh last name!!MyBurningEars said:
Hadn't twigged that! I think Ms Apocalypse thought she was the only black poster.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I'm half Jamaican and supporting Leave!!MyBurningEars said:
There are more than three ethnic minority voters here.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Murali has a Sri Lankan Tamil background for instance, have a feeling he is in the "In" camp.
And Ms Apocalypse.0 -
We need daily yougov polls don't we !!!0
-
Conventional Republicans could be split in choices, while Trumpeteers would be locked on for their man.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trump trailed badly in late deciders in NH too.Speedy said:
Rubio and Cruz got 58% of late deciders, Trump only 16%.Casino_Royale said:
That's bloody huge news.Speedy said:MSNBC is hinting that Trump lost, but its too close among Rubio and Cruz for first place.
If true.
Looks bad for Trump.
I advise you to cover up.
Trump has led the polls in SC consistently.0 -
Corbyn being Labour leader gives them much freer rein as they know there is literally no-one who could lose to him. Why go for a conviction-free opportunist like Boris when you could ensure a principled Tory is the next PM?EPG said:What do we know about Conservative MPs and their attitude toward Boris? Will he make the final two even as an Outer? I always think of the sceptics as roundheads and maybe they are too grave of countenance to countenance him as leader; I assume they are happy to take principle over popularity
0 -
Failed to win late deciders then - and won the state by a handsome margin.Speedy said:
He got 21, Kasich who got the most got 22.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trump trailed badly in late deciders in NH too.Speedy said:
Rubio and Cruz got 58% of late deciders, Trump only 16%.Casino_Royale said:
That's bloody huge news.Speedy said:MSNBC is hinting that Trump lost, but its too close among Rubio and Cruz for first place.
If true.
Looks bad for Trump.
I advise you to cover up.
Trump has led the polls in SC consistently.0 -
Someone just plonked down £150 to lay Cruz at 20..0
-
53% of S.C republicans say they want to legalize immigrants only 43% say they want to deport them.
The news is just bad for Trump from start to finish with the exit polls.0 -
Ever seen a picture of Bob Marley's old man??MyBurningEars said:
Mind you, based on name alone, what would you make of Trevor McDonald?NorfolkTilIDie said:
Well, "black" might be stretching it since my Dad was only mixed race!! He also had a Welsh last name!!MyBurningEars said:
Hadn't twigged that! I think Ms Apocalypse thought she was the only black poster.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I'm half Jamaican and supporting Leave!!MyBurningEars said:
There are more than three ethnic minority voters here.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Murali has a Sri Lankan Tamil background for instance, have a feeling he is in the "In" camp.
And Ms Apocalypse.0 -
He lost them by only 1%.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Failed to win late deciders then - and won the state by a handsome margin.Speedy said:
He got 21, Kasich who got the most got 22.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trump trailed badly in late deciders in NH too.Speedy said:
Rubio and Cruz got 58% of late deciders, Trump only 16%.Casino_Royale said:
That's bloody huge news.Speedy said:MSNBC is hinting that Trump lost, but its too close among Rubio and Cruz for first place.
If true.
Looks bad for Trump.
I advise you to cover up.
Trump has led the polls in SC consistently.
Here he loses them by 14%.0 -
In NH he won the state by 20%.Speedy said:
He lost them by only 1%.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Failed to win late deciders then - and won the state by a handsome margin.Speedy said:
He got 21, Kasich who got the most got 22.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trump trailed badly in late deciders in NH too.Speedy said:
Rubio and Cruz got 58% of late deciders, Trump only 16%.Casino_Royale said:
That's bloody huge news.Speedy said:MSNBC is hinting that Trump lost, but its too close among Rubio and Cruz for first place.
If true.
Looks bad for Trump.
I advise you to cover up.
Trump has led the polls in SC consistently.
Here he loses them by 14%.
Here he wins it by 10?0 -
Anyone would bave thought that this is conservative v conservative but it is much wider involving all political parties, business, trade unions and others and the narrative will quite quickly move onto including all these groups. If Boris goes for leave I cannot imagine the City will be impressed0
-
Trump 1.120
-
Trump probably with enough of a cushion to survive losing late deciders, but definitely a problem for him beyond tonight.0
-
Exit Polls
Shares my values 38
Bring Change 29
Tells it like it is 16
Can win in November 150 -
Trump winning evangelicals according to this subsample:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbsfL9bWEAAcs-v.jpg0 -
Incidentally a virtual tie on late deciders Cruz v Rubio is good for Cruz, given his historic second position.
You can get evens W/O Trump compared to 1.75 for Rubio, should be the other way round.0 -
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/primary-caucus-results/south-carolina
Men
Trump 34
Cruz 24
Rubio 23
Kasich 6
Carson 6
Bush 6
Women
Cruz 27
Trump 26
Rubio 25
Kasich 9
Carson 7
Bush 70 -
Trump by 8 *touches nose*0
-
How can Trump be losing on those numbers? Trump must have won.Speedy said:http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/primary-caucus-results/south-carolina
Men
Trump 34
Cruz 24
Rubio 23
Women
Cruz 27
Trump 26
Rubio 250 -
He's winning South Carolina.williamglenn said:Trump winning evangelicals according to this subsample:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbsfL9bWEAAcs-v.jpg0 -
I've just taken the £13 at 24.0 that was available on Cruz.Casino_Royale said:Someone just plonked down £150 to lay Cruz at 20..
As you say £154 available to back Cruz at 20.0.
Nate Silver has both Cruz and Trump at 11% chance to win SC.
0 -
True all the other things, the values, the religion, the late deciders all points to a Trump loss.williamglenn said:
How can Trump be losing on those numbers? Trump must have won.Speedy said:http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/primary-caucus-results/south-carolina
Men
Trump 34
Cruz 24
Rubio 23
Women
Cruz 27
Trump 26
Rubio 25
The topline figures look like Trump will sneak a win, but a 29-26 margin is too close.0 -
I hadn't actually. Wow.NorfolkTilIDie said:
Ever seen a picture of Bob Marley's old man??MyBurningEars said:
Mind you, based on name alone, what would you make of Trevor McDonald?NorfolkTilIDie said:
Well, "black" might be stretching it since my Dad was only mixed race!! He also had a Welsh last name!!MyBurningEars said:
Hadn't twigged that! I think Ms Apocalypse thought she was the only black poster.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I'm half Jamaican and supporting Leave!!MyBurningEars said:
There are more than three ethnic minority voters here.TheScreamingEagles said:
PB's three resident ethnic minority voters are Leavers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
PB's resident ethnic minority voter is already convincedTykejohnno said:MP Khalid Mahmood campaigns to convince ethnic minority voters that Britain should leave EU
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/mp-khalid-mahmood-campaigns-convince-10392837#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Mind you I'm British born, you were born in India, bloody Foreigners coming over here, telling us to what to do
Murali has a Sri Lankan Tamil background for instance, have a feeling he is in the "In" camp.
And Ms Apocalypse.0 -
Cruz is now favourite in the "Without Trump" SC GOP market.0
-
74% In South Carolina Republican Primary Support Temporary Ban On Non-U.S. Muslims, that is good for TrumpSpeedy said:53% of S.C republicans say they want to legalize immigrants only 43% say they want to deport them.
The news is just bad for Trump from start to finish with the exit polls.0 -
Best guess
1 . Trump 34
2. Cruz 26
3. Rubio 18
0 -
They are 73% and he's winning them by only 2.DanSmith said:
He's winning South Carolina.williamglenn said:Trump winning evangelicals according to this subsample:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbsfL9bWEAAcs-v.jpg
It's too close.0
