politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So it’s on. In just four months Britain will vote whether t
Comments
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Another great map given the importance to discussions right now
Who imports the most from whom? The Largest Source Of Imports By Country https://t.co/qDnmvQRKEn https://t.co/CLx4rjREtu0 -
New rule - one referendum to be discussed at a time?
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Won't get fooled again - The Whoisam said:
Little Lies - Fleetwood MacLucyJones said:
With Or Without EU - U2TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm editing PB from the 1st of June until the 21st of June.NickPalmer said:
I'll do my bit for Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.
I don't think I'm going to have the energy to do any campaigning.
Though, you'll get a few thread headers with the headline "Europe - The Final Countdown"
I Just Can't Get EU Out Of My Head - Kylie Minogue
We Will Rock EU - Queen
I'll be campaigning for LEAVE.
I don't really care who gets official designation - GO or Vote Leave, it's the final result I'm interested in. (But did I cringe to see Galloway on stage last night?! From the way Galloway was introduced, with Farage talking about the need to put differences aside and work together to get the right result, I had started to hope it would be a prominent Vote Leave member, and that Farage was announcing a merger of the two campaigns).0 -
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"Wanderer said:If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.0 -
Hmm, I knew the problem with Saudi society was big, but not that big:
ian bremmer @ianbremmer 6h6 hours ago
Saudi Arabia
70% of population under 30
70% of labor force employed by the govt
90% of govt revenue from oil
#yikes0 -
According to the Guardian, Andrea Leadsom has come out for Leave.
Edit: Confirmed on her blog.0 -
Only EU - Yazoo (also covered by the Flying Pickets)Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Won't get fooled again - The Whoisam said:
Little Lies - Fleetwood MacLucyJones said:
With Or Without EU - U2TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm editing PB from the 1st of June until the 21st of June.NickPalmer said:
I'll do my bit for Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.
I don't think I'm going to have the energy to do any campaigning.
Though, you'll get a few thread headers with the headline "Europe - The Final Countdown"
I Just Can't Get EU Out Of My Head - Kylie Minogue
We Will Rock EU - Queen
I'll be campaigning for LEAVE.
I don't really care who gets official designation - GO or Vote Leave, it's the final result I'm interested in. (But did I cringe to see Galloway on stage last night?! From the way Galloway was introduced, with Farage talking about the need to put differences aside and work together to get the right result, I had started to hope it would be a prominent Vote Leave member, and that Farage was announcing a merger of the two campaigns).0 -
On Guido's list there are 17 Conservative MP's who have declared remain when they were previously leave.0
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The Nevada entrance polls should be out soon.0
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Also of those declaring leave on this forum all have previously indicated leave on GuidoBig_G_NorthWales said:On Guido's list there are 17 Conservative MP's who have declared remain when they were previously leave.
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I'm unclear as to why you're confused.TwistedFireStopper said:I'm having a hard time trying to explain the whole EU referendum gig to my 16 year old. He's an instinctive Trotskyist Labour leaner, but he actually doesn't feel the need for political union in Europe, he just wants the trade bits, and he's against mass immigration. He's confusing me!
Most 16 year old lads don't give a rats arse about the EU as long as its got big tits !!
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For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!NorfolkTilIDie said:
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"Wanderer said:If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.0 -
Very good.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Won't get fooled again - The Whoisam said:
Little Lies - Fleetwood MacLucyJones said:
With Or Without EU - U2TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm editing PB from the 1st of June until the 21st of June.NickPalmer said:
I'll do my bit for Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.
I don't think I'm going to have the energy to do any campaigning.
Though, you'll get a few thread headers with the headline "Europe - The Final Countdown"
I Just Can't Get EU Out Of My Head - Kylie Minogue
We Will Rock EU - Queen
I'll be campaigning for LEAVE.
I don't really care who gets official designation - GO or Vote Leave, it's the final result I'm interested in. (But did I cringe to see Galloway on stage last night?! From the way Galloway was introduced, with Farage talking about the need to put differences aside and work together to get the right result, I had started to hope it would be a prominent Vote Leave member, and that Farage was announcing a merger of the two campaigns).0 -
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.OldKingCole said:
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!NorfolkTilIDie said:
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"Wanderer said:If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.0 -
tits dont come much bigger than in the EU.JackW said:
I'm unclear as to why you're confused.TwistedFireStopper said:I'm having a hard time trying to explain the whole EU referendum gig to my 16 year old. He's an instinctive Trotskyist Labour leaner, but he actually doesn't feel the need for political union in Europe, he just wants the trade bits, and he's against mass immigration. He's confusing me!
Most 16 year old lads don't give a rats arse about the EU as long as its got big tits !!
Theres Martin Schulz for a start.0 -
If we try to throw our toys out he pram again, then we should not be surprised if the other EU members tell us to go and get stuffed.RobD said:
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.OldKingCole said:
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!NorfolkTilIDie said:
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"Wanderer said:If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
No-one likes a long term whinger.0 -
Did he proclaim so from the side of his swimming pool whilst clad in skimpy speedos and reclining on his latest rug ....Plato_Says said:Stewart Jackson another VoteLeave declared
carpet I mean rather than an ex OGH hairpiece ?0 -
The wider point is that calling DC liar etc will not go down well with the wider public. It is fact based information that is required. Abuse does not win arguments and I hope all the media presenters have been instructed to immediately stop parties talking over each other as that will turn millions off. Stephen Nolan on R5 is very good at controlling debateIndigo said:
You are surely not going to suggest that he didn't lie (repeatedly) ?kle4 said:Cameron has been and will continue to be labelled a liar, idiot or traitor by loud voices in the Leave campaign.
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It isn't quite the same, as treaty changes require referenda in other countries too.OldKingCole said:
If we try to throw our toys out he pram again, then we should not be surprised if the other EU members tell us to go and get stuffed.RobD said:
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.OldKingCole said:
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!NorfolkTilIDie said:
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"Wanderer said:If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
No-one likes a long term whinger.0 -
Buy the headline is not true and the article doesn't say anything that we didn't know 2 years agoisam said:0 -
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.Speedy said:
Corbyn is forced to make a statement supporting Remain because that's what his party opponents want to, and he can afford to cede ground to them on a subject of lesser importance for him.Plato_Says said:LabourLeave
Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.0 -
Is that a yes or a no ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The wider point is that calling DC liar etc will not go down well with the wider public. It is fact based information that is required. Abuse does not win arguments and I hope all the media presenters have been instructed to immediately stop parties talking over each other as that will turn millions off. Stephen Nolan on R5 is very good at controlling debateIndigo said:
You are surely not going to suggest that he didn't lie (repeatedly) ?kle4 said:Cameron has been and will continue to be labelled a liar, idiot or traitor by loud voices in the Leave campaign.
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I would struggle to be so definitive on a subject likely to be highly emotional (which is why I have been trying to post less recently, to avoid getting worked up), and in many respects I like Cameron as a PM, so the most I would say is his case seems to me to rely on some pretty generous interpretations of past statements and current events to be considered the big win he is claiming.Indigo said:
You are surely not going to suggest that he didn't lie (repeatedly) ?kle4 said:Cameron has been and will continue to be labelled a liar, idiot or traitor by loud voices in the Leave campaign.
Whether or not someone thinks he has lied or not, and how much, would I think be pretty relevant to the Tories not being bitterly divided on this issue though. Currently the senior figures are playing nice, but their allies in this fight will not all be so kind, and they will be persistently asked what they think about that.
I tend to think that politicians rarely directly lie, as it is not worth the risk to be caught. Obfuscation, omission and intentional misleading is much more common without technically crossing the line into a lie.-1 -
Point taken, but surely those are likely to be Yes?No, rather than "If, if that bit changes, and that bit's removed!"RobD said:
It isn't quite the same, as treaty changes require referenda in other countries too.OldKingCole said:
If we try to throw our toys out he pram again, then we should not be surprised if the other EU members tell us to go and get stuffed.RobD said:
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.OldKingCole said:
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!NorfolkTilIDie said:
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"Wanderer said:If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
No-one likes a long term whinger.0 -
But thats what I said. We should try to make the thing work by renegotiating proper blocking powers by non-Euro states. If they won't do that yet Eurozone still integrates the thing won't work and we should vote again.OldKingCole said:
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!NorfolkTilIDie said:
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"Wanderer said:If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.0 -
Gone now anyway.isam said:
The Tele are perhaps slowy learning that it's best to limit how long their twattish dishonesty is exposed to public view.0 -
31% of workers in Saudi Arabia are foreign workers on fixed term contracts.Speedy said:Hmm, I knew the problem with Saudi society was big, but not that big:
ian bremmer @ianbremmer 6h6 hours ago
Saudi Arabia
70% of population under 30
70% of labor force employed by the govt
90% of govt revenue from oil
#yikes0 -
Yeah, I agree we wouldn't have a "renegotiation" after a treaty change. As you say, it'd be yes or no. The idea being you do the negotiation before the treaty change is finalised.OldKingCole said:
Point taken, but surely those are likely to be Yes?No, rather than "If, if that bit changes, and that bit's removed!"RobD said:
It isn't quite the same, as treaty changes require referenda in other countries too.OldKingCole said:
If we try to throw our toys out he pram again, then we should not be surprised if the other EU members tell us to go and get stuffed.RobD said:
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.OldKingCole said:
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!NorfolkTilIDie said:
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"Wanderer said:If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
No-one likes a long term whinger.0 -
Posted without comment for you to enjoy
https://theconversation.com/why-the-eu-emergency-brake-on-migrant-benefits-is-sexist-54195?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EU special - 4341&utm_content=EU special - 4341+CID_631ea81d27e3f9f4b0c34b5233681544&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=Why the EU emergency brake on migrant benefits is sexist
"There’s been scant mention, though, of the victims of the proposed measures. Not only does a brake on in-work benefits constitute a dramatic licence to discriminate against EU nationals – it is sexist."0 -
That didn't happen for Fiscal Compact Treaty. Govt claimed it didn't affect us (somewhat ludicrously!) and we didn't get one. This must change.RobD said:
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.OldKingCole said:
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!NorfolkTilIDie said:
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"Wanderer said:If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
0 -
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UKIndigo said:
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.Speedy said:
Corbyn is forced to make a statement supporting Remain because that's what his party opponents want to, and he can afford to cede ground to them on a subject of lesser importance for him.Plato_Says said:LabourLeave
Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.0 -
If the Channel 4 news debate is anything to go by, Remain is going to have an extremely hard time defending its position with the public.
Nicky Morgan and Laura Sandys were really struggling.
Then again, independence, freedom, democracy and self-determination are pretty hard to argue against.
Sandys talked about the British people as if they were errant teenagers who had asked to go with their mates to Ibiza. Just dreadful.0 -
By the by I've always thought that Mike Smithson might consider an E-bay shop. As a political bigwig of immense standing he could flog off celebrity political hairpieces as worn by the great man.JackW said:
Did he proclaim so from the side of his swimming pool whilst clad in skimpy speedos and reclining on his latest rug ....Plato_Says said:Stewart Jackson another VoteLeave declared
carpet I mean rather than an ex OGH hairpiece ?
Export orders would come flooding in, not least from across the pond. Such trade would be difficult to Trump.
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I don't understand your question - I was making a general pointIndigo said:
Is that a yes or a no ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The wider point is that calling DC liar etc will not go down well with the wider public. It is fact based information that is required. Abuse does not win arguments and I hope all the media presenters have been instructed to immediately stop parties talking over each other as that will turn millions off. Stephen Nolan on R5 is very good at controlling debateIndigo said:
You are surely not going to suggest that he didn't lie (repeatedly) ?kle4 said:Cameron has been and will continue to be labelled a liar, idiot or traitor by loud voices in the Leave campaign.
0 -
The only recent comment I've heard from someone not a political wonk on this topic is a) the negotiation was all a pantomime and b) they were sick of the EU acting like it's a country. At least one of which is a standard westminster bubble opinion, so sometimes these things are reflected in normal people.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UKIndigo said:
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.Speedy said:
Corbyn is forced to make a statement supporting Remain because that's what his party opponents want to, and he can afford to cede ground to them on a subject of lesser importance for him.Plato_Says said:LabourLeave
Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Oh, anecdote alert I guess.0 -
That's no different from what a Remainer would say, is it?TCPoliticalBetting said:
5. I will insist theat the EC keeps to the letter and spirit of the agreements made and I will ensure that all our people will work in the best interests of the UK.Wanderer said:If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
..........................
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.0 -
Can I make a request? I've said in the past that PB is very bad at predicting things like "size of lead" or "proportion of votes", but is acceptably good at predicting ordinal data - i.e. who will come first. A yes/no referendum is an excellent forum for testing this hypothesis.Speedy said:I think we need a new PB poll on the EU ref., the last one after the previous deal a few weeks ago was 74% Leave, 26% Remain.
I would like to see the numbers now, however it's Saturday so a weekend might not be the best time.
So if you can, can you please run another poll, this time with the question "Who do you think will win: REMAIN or LEAVE?" No buggering around with percentages, just who will come first0 -
I think this website shows the people most informed about politics have swung behind Leave. Question is whether Govt can frame the issue away from facts of the matter for the less interested.taffys said:If the Channel 4 news debate is anything to go by, Remain is going to have an extremely hard time defending its position with the public.
Nicky Morgan and Laura Sandys were really struggling.
Then again, independence, freedom, democracy and self-determination are pretty hard to argue against.
Sandys talked about the British people as if they were errant teenagers who had asked to go with their mates to Ibiza. Just dreadful.0 -
As I said, the deal is a busted flush, they can't use it to defend Remain so they fall back to their previous arguments.taffys said:If the Channel 4 news debate is anything to go by, Remain is going to have an extremely hard time defending its position with the public.
Nicky Morgan and Laura Sandys were really struggling.
Then again, independence, freedom, democracy and self-determination are pretty hard to argue against.
Sandys talked about the British people as if they were errant teenagers who had asked to go with their mates to Ibiza. Just dreadful.0 -
This may not be a Tory echo chamber, notwithstanding the views of some to that effect, but in terms of vocal commentary it is Tory heavy, so if it reflects anything, which I doubt, it would be politically obsessed Tories, by and large, are swinging behind Leave. Maybe.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I think this website shows the people most informed about politics have swung behind Leave. Question is whether Govt can frame the issue away from facts of the matter for the less interested.taffys said:If the Channel 4 news debate is anything to go by, Remain is going to have an extremely hard time defending its position with the public.
Nicky Morgan and Laura Sandys were really struggling.
Then again, independence, freedom, democracy and self-determination are pretty hard to argue against.
Sandys talked about the British people as if they were errant teenagers who had asked to go with their mates to Ibiza. Just dreadful.0 -
I asked you if he had lied and you hand-waved a lot and didn't answer the question.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I don't understand your question - I was making a general pointIndigo said:
Is that a yes or a no ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The wider point is that calling DC liar etc will not go down well with the wider public. It is fact based information that is required. Abuse does not win arguments and I hope all the media presenters have been instructed to immediately stop parties talking over each other as that will turn millions off. Stephen Nolan on R5 is very good at controlling debateIndigo said:
You are surely not going to suggest that he didn't lie (repeatedly) ?kle4 said:Cameron has been and will continue to be labelled a liar, idiot or traitor by loud voices in the Leave campaign.
Let me give you a few of helpful pointers:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/6961675/David-Cameron-net-immigration-will-be-capped-at-tens-of-thousands.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2534058/I-stop-child-benefit-exported-Poland-rest-EU-Cameron-vows-sets-powers-wants-claw-Brussels.html
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/eu-speech-at-bloomberg
Incidentally, because the Child Benefit is now indexed to cost of living that means we will have to pay MORE than British Families get to EU workers from Ireland, Norway and Switzerland.0 -
Loltaffys said:
If the Channel 4 news debate is anything to go by, Remain is going to have an extremely hard time defending its position with the public.
Nicky Morgan and Laura Sandys were really struggling.
Then again, independence, freedom, democracy and self-determination are pretty hard to argue against.
Sandys talked about the British people as if they were errant teenagers who had asked to go with their mates to Ibiza. Just dreadful.0 -
I am sure you are right in some instances but for leave to gain traction they need to have a narrative of how trade would work outside the EU, how they can stop free movement of labour, and how long trade deals would take to supercede existing EU deals. It also occurred to me today how would we get over the E111 Europe wide health scheme if we had to deal with each country. Many genuine questions needing genuine and honest answers. The IFS seems to be well respected on economic matters and any imput they could make could be very valuablekle4 said:
The only recent comment I've heard from someone not a political wonk on this topic is a) the negotiation was all a pantomime and b) they were sick of the EU acting like it's a country. At least one of which is a standard westminster bubble opinion, so sometimes these things are reflected in normal people.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UKIndigo said:
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.Speedy said:
Corbyn is forced to make a statement supporting Remain because that's what his party opponents want to, and he can afford to cede ground to them on a subject of lesser importance for him.Plato_Says said:LabourLeave
Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Oh, anecdote alert I guess.0 -
Did that amend the Communities bill? I think that is the threshold.NorfolkTilIDie said:
That didn't happen for Fiscal Compact Treaty. Govt claimed it didn't affect us (somewhat ludicrously!) and we didn't get one. This must change.RobD said:
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.OldKingCole said:
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!NorfolkTilIDie said:
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"Wanderer said:If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.0 -
The question LEAVE has to answer first is which LEAVE are they talking about. The rather rehearsed answer that the EU "must" allow us into the Single Market is just plain hopeful.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am sure you are right in some instances but for leave to gain traction they need to have a narrative of how trade would work outside the EU, how they can stop free movement of labour, and how long trade deals would take to supercede existing EU deals. It also occurred to me today how would we get over the E111 Europe wide health scheme if we had to deal with each country. Many genuine questions needing genuine and honest answers. The IFS seems to be well respected on economic matters and any imput they could make could be very valuablekle4 said:
The only recent comment I've heard from someone not a political wonk on this topic is a) the negotiation was all a pantomime and b) they were sick of the EU acting like it's a country. At least one of which is a standard westminster bubble opinion, so sometimes these things are reflected in normal people.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UKIndigo said:
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.Speedy said:
However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.Plato_Says said:LabourLeave
Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Oh, anecdote alert I guess.
Why should the other 27 allow Britain into the Finance sector ? Would France and Germany play ball. ? Manufacturing could be different. After all the EU has more to gain there.0 -
Isn't EHIC (as it now is) an EEA thing rather than an EU thing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am sure you are right in some instances but for leave to gain traction they need to have a narrative of how trade would work outside the EU, how they can stop free movement of labour, and how long trade deals would take to supercede existing EU deals. It also occurred to me today how would we get over the E111 Europe wide health scheme if we had to deal with each country. Many genuine questions needing genuine and honest answers. The IFS seems to be well respected on economic matters and any imput they could make could be very valuablekle4 said:
The only recent comment I've heard from someone not a political wonk on this topic is a) the negotiation was all a pantomime and b) they were sick of the EU acting like it's a country. At least one of which is a standard westminster bubble opinion, so sometimes these things are reflected in normal people.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UKIndigo said:
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.Speedy said:
Corbyn is forced to make a statement supporting Remain because that's what his party opponents want to, and he can afford to cede ground to them on a subject of lesser importance for him.Plato_Says said:LabourLeave
Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Oh, anecdote alert I guess.0 -
Bloody Leavers bringing up WW2 when it they should be bringing up WW1.
Tom Watson
4 hrs ·
Twitter
·
And one hundred years on from the battle of the Somme,why would we want to loosen the ties that bind us?I'm proud of what has been achieved.
Stay classy Tom.0 -
Right so we'd get nothing on finance from them but we'd concede everything on manufacturing.surbiton said:
The question LEAVE has to answer first is which LEAVE are they talking about. The rather rehearsed answer that the EU "must" allow us into the Single Market is just plain hopeful.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am sure you e could be very valuablekle4 said:
The only recent comment I've heard from someone not a political wonk on this topic is a) the negotiation was all a pantomime and b) they were sick of the EU acting like it's a country. At least one of which is a standard westminster bubble opinion, so sometimes these things are reflected in normal people.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UKIndigo said:
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.Speedy said:
However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.Plato_Says said:LabourLeave
Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Oh, anecdote alert I guess.
Why should the other 27 allow Britain into the Finance sector ? Would France and Germany play ball. ? Manufacturing could be different. After all the EU has more to gain there.
And you claim to be an MD ?0 -
Ah, I misread the wiki page. That is not the case.RobD said:
Did that amend the Communities bill? I think that is the threshold.NorfolkTilIDie said:
That didn't happen for Fiscal Compact Treaty. Govt claimed it didn't affect us (somewhat ludicrously!) and we didn't get one. This must change.RobD said:
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.OldKingCole said:
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!NorfolkTilIDie said:
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"Wanderer said:If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.0 -
Interesting
Sirish Kulkami
@skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.0 -
We didn't get one of surrendering competencies of Police and Justice (European Arrest Warrent et al) either because "opting-in" and similar "orders given in council" are excluded, ministers can opt us in to whatever they want without asking parliament or the voters. Once opted-in they come under the jurisdiction of the ECJ and its impossible to opt-out again.RobD said:
Did that amend the Communities bill? I think that is the threshold.NorfolkTilIDie said:
That didn't happen for Fiscal Compact Treaty. Govt claimed it didn't affect us (somewhat ludicrously!) and we didn't get one. This must change.
We wont get a vote on an accession treaty regardless of what it contains (it is specifically excluded). Laws and orders that renew or extend existing measures are excluded, and the definition of extend is very broadly drawn. The referendum-lock law was carefully crafted not to get triggered when it matters.
In any case, the EU doesn't actually need any new treaties since Lisbon has self-amending clauses.0 -
It gets triggered if and only if competences are transferred. A treaty change is necessary but *not* sufficient. Minor changes to the treaty occur (from memory) about every 18 months. If treaty changes alone were sufficient to trigger a referendum, we'd've known it by now.RobD said:
Did that amend the Communities bill? I think that is the threshold.NorfolkTilIDie said:
That didn't happen for Fiscal Compact Treaty. Govt claimed it didn't affect us (somewhat ludicrously!) and we didn't get one. This must change.RobD said:
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.OldKingCole said:
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!NorfolkTilIDie said:
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"Wanderer said:If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
We were not signatories to the Fiscal Compact treaty so no trigger.0 -
Cameron is too FRIT to debate with Farage - Osborne is too FRIT to consider the UK out of the EU - he's crying for his mummy to comfort him. (Where is he today?)taffys said:If the Channel 4 news debate is anything to go by, Remain is going to have an extremely hard time defending its position with the public.
Nicky Morgan and Laura Sandys were really struggling.
Then again, independence, freedom, democracy and self-determination are pretty hard to argue against.
Sandys talked about the British people as if they were errant teenagers who had asked to go with their mates to Ibiza. Just dreadful.0 -
How many years since the victory of the Seventh Coalition? Both victories to prevent a European superstate. Not sure what Tom's point isYossariansChild said:Bloody Leavers bringing up WW2 when it they should be bringing up WW1.
Tom Watson
4 hrs ·
Twitter
·
And one hundred years on from the battle of the Somme,why would we want to loosen the ties that bind us?I'm proud of what has been achieved.
Stay classy Tom.
0 -
Corbyn might believe the people he represents - trade unions, public sector workers and the like - enjoy better legal protection through membership of the EU than they would being left at the tender mercies of a majority Conservative Government which basically wants to sack them and sell them into slavery (or perhaps the other way round).Indigo said:
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.
The most compelling argument for REMAIN I've heard today was from a mother whose son had a rare disease which couldn't be treated in the UK but the expertise to treat it existed in France. As a citizen of the EU, the son got the treatment he needed in France free, survived and has become a healthy adult.
That's not a reason to change your vote - the E111 arrangements could be replicated on a bi-lateral basis assuming the other EU countries were willing.
At the moment, both sides are busy finding their baselines and it will be baseline tennis for the next few weeks as each plays its strongest cards ad infinitum.
0 -
Which is why its a negotiation. They get manufacturing and we get finance. Anyway, our dollar finance sector is thriving despite active efforts by US authorities to kill it.surbiton said:
The question LEAVE has to answer first is which LEAVE are they talking about. The rather rehearsed answer that the EU "must" allow us into the Single Market is just plain hopeful.Big_G_NorthWales said:
take to supercede existing EU deals. It also occurred to me today how would we get over the E111 Europe wide health scheme if we had to deal with each country. Many genuine questions needing genuine and honest answers. The IFS seems to be well respected on economic matters and any imput they could make could be very valuablekle4 said:
The only recent comment I've heard from someone not a political wonk on this topic is a) the negotiation was all a pantomime and b) they were sick of the EU acting like it's a country. At least one of which is a standard westminster bubble opinion, so sometimes these things are reflected in normal people.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UKIndigo said:
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.Speedy said:
However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.Plato_Says said:LabourLeave
Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Oh, anecdote alert I guess.
Why should the other 27 allow Britain into the Finance sector ? Would France and Germany play ball. ? Manufacturing could be different. After all the EU has more to gain there.0 -
Danny, Sandy and myself are all lefties supporting Leave. I think there are others too.kle4 said:
This may not be a Tory echo chamber, notwithstanding the views of some to that effect, but in terms of vocal commentary it is Tory heavy, so if it reflects anything, which I doubt, it would be politically obsessed Tories, by and large, are swinging behind Leave. Maybe.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I think this website shows the people most informed about politics have swung behind Leave. Question is whether Govt can frame the issue away from facts of the matter for the less interested.taffys said:If the Channel 4 news debate is anything to go by, Remain is going to have an extremely hard time defending its position with the public.
Nicky Morgan and Laura Sandys were really struggling.
Then again, independence, freedom, democracy and self-determination are pretty hard to argue against.
Sandys talked about the British people as if they were errant teenagers who had asked to go with their mates to Ibiza. Just dreadful.0 -
OMG I guess we really do have to rehearse this every other day. LEAVE don't get to chose, the government of the day decide how to implement a LEAVE vote. The Leave campaign can think of any solution they want, and half a dozen including some very detailed ones have been posted here in the last few days. It is not of the slightest relevance, because the government will do what it wants to do, not what the Leave campaign wants it to do.surbiton said:The question LEAVE has to answer first is which LEAVE are they talking about. The rather rehearsed answer that the EU "must" allow us into the Single Market is just plain hopeful.
Why should the other 27 allow Britain into the Finance sector ? Would France and Germany play ball. ? Manufacturing could be different. After all the EU has more to gain there.
0 -
Nevada Dems result page https://nvcaucuses.com/0
-
Does he need one? Cameron hates reshuffles.Tissue_Price said:
The post-referendum Cabinet reshuffle will be fascinating; assuming a Remain win of 55-60% what number of Outers does Cameron appoint? 8? Which ones? (One presumes Grayling is a goner, IDS too perhaps).TCPoliticalBetting said:
There are more and they will get an opportunity to fly or sink.Tissue_Price said:
But, and this seems to be under-rated, they have to be an instantly credible Prime Minister. No party membership has ever directly elected a PM before. If an Outer, this limits the field to Gove and (at a stretch) Patel, unless Boris goes Leave.rcs1000 said:
Unless there is a monumental victory for Remain, I think your analysis is correct: the party will want an Out-ter.Speedy said:
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.SeanT said:Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
But I think it needs to be someone who can bring the party back together again. It cannot be someone divisive.
I think that the next leader will need to have been in one of the top 7-8 non-PM Cabinet jobs; CoE, FS, HS, Justice, Education, Health, Defence, Business at a push - so if they're not there already they'll need to be reshuffled in.0 -
I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).Plato_Says said:Interesting
Sirish Kulkami
@skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.
0 -
I have been trying to establish which of wilson’s cabinet in 1975 wanted to leave the EEC in the Referendum. I think they were:
Benn – Industry
Castle – Health and Social Services
Foot – Employment
Shore – Trade
Varley – Energy
Ross – Scotland
Silkin – Planning and Local government
Can someone confirm or correct.
0 -
For reference: in 2008 Clinton beat Obama by 50.8 percent to 45.1 percent0
-
There was an article in the Berlingske Tidence (Danish equivalent of The Times) this week reporting that ship hijacking off Somalia had died down, because oil prices were so low that the hijackers couldn't be bothered with it, and were switching to other nefarious activities.Indigo said:
31% of workers in Saudi Arabia are foreign workers on fixed term contracts.Speedy said:Hmm, I knew the problem with Saudi society was big, but not that big:
ian bremmer @ianbremmer 6h6 hours ago
Saudi Arabia
70% of population under 30
70% of labor force employed by the govt
90% of govt revenue from oil
#yikes0 -
Without being funny, but that is a total edge case. Like the kid whose parents "kidnapped" him and took him to have proton therapy elsewhere in the EU. I would suggest that the occurrences of this kind of thing every year are in the 10s.stodge said:
Corbyn might believe the people he represents - trade unions, public sector workers and the like - enjoy better legal protection through membership of the EU than they would being left at the tender mercies of a majority Conservative Government which basically wants to sack them and sell them into slavery (or perhaps the other way round).Indigo said:
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.
The most compelling argument for REMAIN I've heard today was from a mother whose son had a rare disease which couldn't be treated in the UK but the expertise to treat it existed in France. As a citizen of the EU, the son got the treatment he needed in France free, survived and has become a healthy adult.
That's not a reason to change your vote - the E111 arrangements could be replicated on a bi-lateral basis assuming the other EU countries were willing.
At the moment, both sides are busy finding their baselines and it will be baseline tennis for the next few weeks as each plays its strongest cards ad infinitum.
I don't think it is a good reason for or against.
It is even more "edge" can the issue of child benefits.
The real core of the issue is do we think we are better off in the current trading block, with all the downsides of the current 27 state political union vs taking the risk to come out and negotiate a different deal with no guarantees of anything but no political union.0 -
A bit of caution with Nevada, Las Vegas has 70% of delegates, whoever wins it will get a very loopsided result, remember the Dems are reporting only delegates not votes.
Reno has 15%, and the rest are the desert ghost towns.0 -
I presume your annual leave is directly proportional to your body size? So when you were contracting you lost holiday as well as mass?MP_SE said:
I have an average amount but don't really like taking it unless going on holiday. I once took just 3 days off in 1.5 years when contracting.kle4 said:
You either have a lot of annual leave available to take, or youreally care about Leave winning.MP_SE said:I will be taking annual leave for three weeks to campaign for Leave.
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It should never have been its own state really.Speedy said:A bit of caution with Nevada, Las Vegas has 70% of delegates, whoever wins it will get a very loopsided result, remember the Dems are reporting only delegates not votes.
Reno has 15%, and the rest are the desert ghost towns.0 -
Even the unions aren't that stupid (as one of the big unions coming out for Leave on Monday supposedly will show). TTIP is the pinnacle of Corporatist nonsense, and Labour is busy trying to get it as fast as they can. The Rail Directive will also kill off any future privatisation of the Railways, another leftie shibboleth.stodge said:
Corbyn might believe the people he represents - trade unions, public sector workers and the like - enjoy better legal protection through membership of the EU than they would being left at the tender mercies of a majority Conservative Government which basically wants to sack them and sell them into slavery (or perhaps the other way round).Indigo said:
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.
Leaving aside the minor detail that if the electoral vote for a Tory government who stand on a manifesto of eating babies, that's democracy for you. Tories had to put up with Blair/Brown, lefties have to put up with Cameron, taking one, and then trying to hide behind Brussels for th other isn't really playing fair.0 -
According to Nate Silver's analysis the other day, Nevada is a *slightly* more Clinton-friendly (and Sanders-hostile) state than the US average.
If Sanders and Clinton were on course for a tie in the national vote, Clinton would win Nevada by 3%, according to this:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanderss-path-to-the-nomination/0 -
Good evening, everyone.0
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In opposition the Tories pick an unknown, in office the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary and Osborne will not willingly give up the leadership to Liam Fox, Chris Grayling or Priti Patel and certainly not if it is RemainAlanbrooke said:
I've not for one moment suggested they will.HYUFD said:
They are not going to choose Gove or IDSAlanbrooke said:
If remain wins Dave stays on until 2019.HYUFD said:
If Remain wins Osborne will succeed Cameron with Javid as ChancellorAlanbrooke said:
GOWNBPMHYUFD said:
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace OsbornerichardDodd said:If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.
Tories look at Osborne and then say he's fking unelectable and choose someone else.
They will in all likelihood do what they have done before and chose an unknown rather than the front runners.
Furthermore since the Cameroons have now held the reins since 2007, they are more likely imo to decide on a changing of the guard. It will be 13 years by 2020.0 -
Perhaps he'll return to PB to campaign for it?Plato_Says said:Stewart Jackson another VoteLeave declared
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What? Wyoming has a population of 500k and covers 100,000 sq miles IIRC.NorfolkTilIDie said:
It should never have been its own state really.Speedy said:A bit of caution with Nevada, Las Vegas has 70% of delegates, whoever wins it will get a very loopsided result, remember the Dems are reporting only delegates not votes.
Reno has 15%, and the rest are the desert ghost towns.0 -
Michael Owen levels of analysis on CNN 'If Bernie Sanders has enthused people to come and caucus for him that can only be good for Sanders.' Gee you think?0
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PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.Danny565 said:
I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).Plato_Says said:Interesting
Sirish Kulkami
@skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/12166216/Sony-cyber-hack-heralds-return-of-the-fax-machine.html
He obviously hasn't heard that there are things called photocopiers or wonders who might be about when the fax pops out the other end....0 -
I have signed up for Britain Stronger in Europe today and will likely at least do some leaflettingBarnesian said:
I'm signed up to do deliveries for REMAIN. I'll do canvassing and GOTV as well.TheScreamingEagles said:As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.0 -
Somewhat awkward timing with that postSimonStClare said:
PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.Danny565 said:
I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).Plato_Says said:Interesting
Sirish Kulkami
@skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.
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Hijacking the Labour party for £3 ?NickPalmer said:
There was an article in the Berlingske Tidence (Danish equivalent of The Times) this week reporting that ship hijacking off Somalia had died down, because oil prices were so low that the hijackers couldn't be bothered with it, and were switching to other nefarious activities.Indigo said:
31% of workers in Saudi Arabia are foreign workers on fixed term contracts.Speedy said:Hmm, I knew the problem with Saudi society was big, but not that big:
ian bremmer @ianbremmer 6h6 hours ago
Saudi Arabia
70% of population under 30
70% of labor force employed by the govt
90% of govt revenue from oil
#yikes
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Chortle ..NickPalmer said:
Perhaps he'll return to PB to campaign for it?Plato_Says said:Stewart Jackson another VoteLeave declared
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Which side is Hammond on ?0
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There's a lot wrong with TTIP and I don't think Labour supports it contrary to your view. Do Conservatives support all aspects of TTIP ? I would suspect not.Indigo said:
Even the unions aren't that stupid (as one of the big unions coming out for Leave on Monday supposedly will show). TTIP is the pinnacle of Corporatist nonsense, and Labour is busy trying to get it as fast as they can. The Rail Directive will also kill off any future privatisation of the Railways, another leftie shibboleth.
As for the Rail Directive, the funny thing is it's a Conservative Mayor of London trying to take over private rail franchises and effectively re-nationalise them under the publicly-funded Transport for London so once the Conservatives sort out their own line on rail privatisation, we'll be a bit further forward.
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Around 65% voted in the 1975 EEC referendum and turnout should easily match that, this is likely to be a far closer and far more passionate campaign!SimonStClare said:
PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.Danny565 said:
I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).Plato_Says said:Interesting
Sirish Kulkami
@skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.0 -
"I'm 90 years old so I like to give a hand to young aspiring politicians like Bernie" -Dick van Dyke on msnbc just nowYossariansChild said:
Michael Owen levels of analysis on CNN 'If Bernie Sanders has enthused people to come and caucus for him that can only be good for Sanders.' Gee you think?
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If we vote leave, what is the date given for leaving?0
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I am a Tory backing RemainNorfolkTilIDie said:
Danny, Sandy and myself are all lefties supporting Leave. I think there are others too.kle4 said:
This may not be a Tory echo chamber, notwithstanding the views of some to that effect, but in terms of vocal commentary it is Tory heavy, so if it reflects anything, which I doubt, it would be politically obsessed Tories, by and large, are swinging behind Leave. Maybe.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I think this website shows the people most informed about politics have swung behind Leave. Question is whether Govt can frame the issue away from facts of the matter for the less interested.taffys said:If the Channel 4 news debate is anything to go by, Remain is going to have an extremely hard time defending its position with the public.
Nicky Morgan and Laura Sandys were really struggling.
Then again, independence, freedom, democracy and self-determination are pretty hard to argue against.
Sandys talked about the British people as if they were errant teenagers who had asked to go with their mates to Ibiza. Just dreadful.0 -
Perhaps he was on Cameron's negotiation team ;-)Alanbrooke said:
Right so we'd get nothing on finance from them but we'd concede everything on manufacturing.surbiton said:
The question LEAVE has to answer first is which LEAVE are they talking about. The rather rehearsed answer that the EU "must" allow us into the Single Market is just plain hopeful.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am sure you e could be very valuablekle4 said:
The only recent comment I've heard from someone not a political wonk on this topic is a) the negotiation was all a pantomime and b) they were sick of the EU acting like it's a country. At least one of which is a standard westminster bubble opinion, so sometimes these things are reflected in normal people.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UKIndigo said:
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.Speedy said:
However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.Plato_Says said:LabourLeave
Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Oh, anecdote alert I guess.
Why should the other 27 allow Britain into the Finance sector ? Would France and Germany play ball. ? Manufacturing could be different. After all the EU has more to gain there.
And you claim to be an MD ?
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Turnouts generally have fallen heavily since the EEC referendum.HYUFD said:
Around 65% voted in the 1975 EEC referendum and turnout should easily match that, this is likely to be a far closer and far more passionate campaign!SimonStClare said:
PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.Danny565 said:
I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).Plato_Says said:Interesting
Sirish Kulkami
@skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.
General election turnout in the 15 years before that Referendum was about 76%, so 11% higher than the EEC turnout. Meanwhile, turnout 2001-2016 in general elections has been 63%, which if the same pattern is repeated indicates a 52% turnout for this referendum.0 -
That's quite an asumption - in 1974, 78.8% turned out for the general election. 2015, 66.1%.HYUFD said:
Around 65% voted in the 1975 EEC referendum and turnout should easily match that, this is likely to be a far closer and far more passionate campaign!SimonStClare said:
PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.Danny565 said:
I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).Plato_Says said:Interesting
Sirish Kulkami
@skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.0 -
Norm!Morris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
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That was 65% in a decade when GEs attracted 72-78% turnout. Somewhere in the 50%s looks more reasonable today.HYUFD said:
Around 65% voted in the 1975 EEC referendum and turnout should easily match that, this is likely to be a far closer and far more passionate campaign!SimonStClare said:
PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.Danny565 said:
I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).Plato_Says said:Interesting
Sirish Kulkami
@skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.0 -
BSE? you must be madHYUFD said:
I have signed up for Britain Stronger in Europe today and will likely at least do some leaflettingBarnesian said:
I'm signed up to do deliveries for REMAIN. I'll do canvassing and GOTV as well.TheScreamingEagles said:As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.
(I'll get my coat...)0 -
It depends on the destination, EFTA/EEA would probably be achievable in 18 months.LewisDuckworth said:If we vote leave, what is the date given for leaving?
Other outcomes might take longer.0 -
I think the PM indicated not before the re-vote.LewisDuckworth said:If we vote leave, what is the date given for leaving?
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Indigo stated that "Incidentally, because the Child Benefit is now indexed to cost of living that means we will have to pay MORE than British Families get to EU workers from Ireland, Norway and Switzerland."
And the rest of Western Europe and Scandinavia bar Portugal and possibly Spain. The UK is the poor man of Western Europe - it is one of the financially incontinent "Piggies".
It is now clear that only political misfits are supporting the Leave campaign. The vast majority of leading politicians and business leaders, together with other members of the "great and good", are now declaring their hand in favour of Remain, in the same way that most of the establishment was in favour of appeasement in the 1930s. I expect a 60:40 majority (or thereabouts) in favour of Remain.
The trend to ever closer union under the direction of the Reichskanzler(in) will continue. Germany will have achieved her aim of a Großdeutsches Reich without WW3. Merkel was the eminence grise at the recent summit who cajoled everyone, with the aid of her Polish and Letzeburgesch lackeys (Tusk and Juncker) into ensuring that DC could save face with this petty deal.
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The CNN entrance poll for Nevada has it Hillary 52 Sanders 48.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/NV/Dem0
