Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ? I know this has happened in the EU before.
For that to happen, the Prime Minister would have to refuse to initiate the leave process[1] and sit on his hands whilst simultaneously restarting negotiations with 27 other countries. If he tried that, the Conservative party would remove him as Prime Minister.
So no, basically.
I now refer you to other posters who will insist that this can be handwaviumed away because reasons.
[1] either by utilising the exit procedure as specified in Lisbon, or by repealing the relevantUK act
It'd be via Article 50. To go down any unilateral route would severely prejudice talks on EEA entry or a bilateral trade deal.
Yep. Anything other than article 50 puts us in direct breach of our treaty obligations. Something we work very hard not to do for fairly obvious reasons.
I also don't see any mileage in not using Article 50 in the event of a Leave vote. It will give businesses time to adjust to the changes for a couple of years and the government could hold negotiations for a trade deal at the same time. Leaving unilaterally by repealing all of the relevant legislation would be a disaster, I think a few bad losers (Osborne) in the remain camp might want to look at it so the ensuing disaster can be blamed on the leave side to strengthen their case for re-entry or leadership ambitions having been on the losing side.
One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what
So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner
If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)
On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose
But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two
LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse
For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?
Mr. Viceroy, indeed. Not only that, but he's thrown away leverage, so even if we get someone with some backbone, they'll have a much harder time of it.
Unless Cameron's still there in 2020, and Labour's led by Corbyn, I'm not sure I'll vote Conservative again whilst he's leader.
Since you like classical allusions, the fight over the EU on the right is like the Social War between the Romans and the Italian Allies.
Does anyone have the relevant excerpt for the non-EMU protections to hand? I'm seriously hung over and don't want to comb through pages of bullshit to find it!
Still hung over at 4pm! I'm impressed
I didn't get in until 7am! When work are paying for a night out it tends to end up this way.
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Mr. Viceroy, indeed. Not only that, but he's thrown away leverage, so even if we get someone with some backbone, they'll have a much harder time of it.
Unless Cameron's still there in 2020, and Labour's led by Corbyn, I'm not sure I'll vote Conservative again whilst he's leader.
Since you like classical allusions, the fight over the EU on the right is like the Social War between the Romans and the Italian Allies.
Do you mean the Roman establishment won the war but had to give the despised provincials the thing they wanted in any case ?
Looks like the Quite Nasty Party vs the Very Nasty Party doesn’t it!
That's quite a harsh assessment of the different LEAVE factions who seem to me to be a rather colourful group, adding much to the gaiety of the nation.
Will the fraternal LEAVE brothers of Nigel Farage and George Galloway be supping from each others cream dish ... I'm agog in anticipation.
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
This Tory member of 40 years standing is beside hmself with tolerance, emolience and tenderness. Philip is my next door MP and he won't suffer any backlash, neither will Dom Raab whichever side he chooses.
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Perhaps not the smartest time to be dropping to 600 constituencies and causing lots of reselections to happen, a number of Constituency Associations are going to be deeply pissed off with their candidate who suddenly turned out to be a careerist and not a eurosceptic. The CAs were all ready pissed off with Cameron for telling their MP to ignore the association. The results might be unfortunate.. or even regrettable
If there are 100+ Leave Tory MPs one wonders how many letters are being written to the 1922 tonight
Mr. Richard, interesting article, particularly the roles of Sulla, Marius and Caepio (whose father appears to be the chief imbecile responsible for the Roman defeat at Arausio, one of the worst in Roman history).
Mr. Viceroy, indeed. Not only that, but he's thrown away leverage, so even if we get someone with some backbone, they'll have a much harder time of it.
Unless Cameron's still there in 2020, and Labour's led by Corbyn, I'm not sure I'll vote Conservative again whilst he's leader.
Since you like classical allusions, the fight over the EU on the right is like the Social War between the Romans and the Italian Allies.
Do you mean the Roman establishment won the war but had to give the despised provincials the thing they wanted in any case ?
That's a good point.
I was thinking more of equally-matched adversaries who'd vanquished all potential rivals going to war with each other.
I think Boris is damaging his credibilty by his faffing about.
It is clear to everyone that his delay is purely a personal calculation of his leadership chances and nothing to do with his view of the advantages and disadvantages of being in the EU.
I don't think it will help the LEAVE campaign very much if he joins them, particularly if he leads the campaign. It is too serious an issue.
Can you imagine Boris being grilled by Andrew Neil on the consequences of a LEAVE victory?
Neil: So Mr Johnson, if the UK votes LEAVE, what do you believe is the best trading arrangment for the UK - the Norway model, or the Swiss model or something else?
Johnson: (Ruffling his hair) We will be free to make our own decision! We will be free ..
Neil: Yes - but which what do you believe is the best trading arrangment for the UK - the Norway model, or the Swiss or something else?
Johnson: You and i have been friends for a long time Andrew .. waffle, waffle
Neil: Yes - but what do you believe is the best trading arrangment for the UK - the Norway model, or the Swiss or something else?
Johnson: Nescio propter Deum Andrew
Boris is just not going to be able to hack the detailed grilling he will get as leader of the LEAVE campaign. I suspect he knows this. I suspect he will back REMAIN and not be found out.
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Perhaps not the smartest time to be dropping to 600 constituencies and causing lots of reselections to happen, a number of Constituency Associations are going to be deeply pissed off with their candidate who suddenly turned out to be a careerist and not a eurosceptic. The CAs were all ready pissed off with Cameron for telling their MP to ignore the association. The results might be unfortunate.. or even regrettable
If there are 100+ Leave Tory MPs one wonders how many letters are being written to the 1922 tonight
None.
The MPs will be well aware of the likelihood of Cameron resigning if Leave wins and of their much better mandate to move against him then if he doesn't. If they try to depose him now, when he's delivered on his promise then they'd look ridiculous.
"A big problem for Cameron was seen in this morning’s newspapers. generally the Tory press is hostile and wants Britain to leave. This means that effectively the campaign could be Cameron vs the Tory press – the same media that played such a part in getting him elected last May."
That is indeed a problem, although it was noticeable and notable that The Sun didn't have a splash front page kicking Cameron's backside.
All the same, Cameron is going to spend a lot of time these next few months alongside Lib Dems, Labour, Greens and SNP politicians, while many of his activists, members, MPs and cabinet campaign, as well as - as you rightly say - the Tory-supporting media go against him.
Good job he doesn't really need that media again!
David I can not believe any Labour politicians with ambitions of leadership will share any platform with Cameron during this period. They will not as before be travelling up to Scotland on the same day to save the Union, they now know how that one played out. Cameron Blair Straw Blunkett Mandelson maybe. All new Labour together as that is what Cameron and Osborne are new Labour disciples.
Sturgeon has already said that the SNP won't campaign alongside the Tories, and the sight and smell of SLab's decomposing corpse will have done nothing to change that.
Mr. Viceroy, indeed. Not only that, but he's thrown away leverage, so even if we get someone with some backbone, they'll have a much harder time of it.
Unless Cameron's still there in 2020, and Labour's led by Corbyn, I'm not sure I'll vote Conservative again whilst he's leader.
Since you like classical allusions, the fight over the EU on the right is like the Social War between the Romans and the Italian Allies.
Do you mean the Roman establishment won the war but had to give the despised provincials the thing they wanted in any case ?
That's a good point.
I was thinking more of equally-matched adversaries who'd vanquished all potential rivals going to war with each other.
Octavian v Antony is more of a 'last men standing' conflict.
Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
Speedy: what time do we get the results of the Nevada Democrat caucuses and the SC Republican primary?
The Nevada caucuses start at 11am US Pacific Mountain time and results are due from mid-afternoon ie about 10pm or 11pm GMT. Polls close in South Carolina at 7pm Eastern time ie midnight GMT
Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"
Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
so it will be all the dying newspapers versus the ones that still have a readership ?
'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
Leavers sure do love their Nazi references.
That's another 1/100 shot landed.
A serious question Mr Meeks, what % of those who vote Leave do you consider to be Nazi sympathisers?
Serious answer, constantly refighting the Second World War isn't going to allay any concerns that Leavers are backward-looking Little Englanders. Leavers need to start reaching for less confrontational metaphors.
One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what
So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner
If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)
On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose
But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two
LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse
For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?
The same!
I meant is it better or worse value than Leave!!
Oh sorry... I haven't a clue, I don't really even know who Rubio is!
Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"
Fraid so Robert, there will be a lot of disappointed outers if they're betting the house on Murdoch favouring any side but himself.
Serious answer, constantly refighting the Second World War isn't going to allay any concerns that Leavers are backward-looking Little Englanders. Leavers need to start reaching for less confrontational metaphors.
like referring to our opponents as 'the mob' perhaps?
'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
Leavers sure do love their Nazi references.
That's another 1/100 shot landed.
A serious question Mr Meeks, what % of those who vote Leave do you consider to be Nazi sympathisers?
Serious answer, constantly refighting the Second World War isn't going to allay any concerns that Leavers are backward-looking Little Englanders. Leavers need to start reaching for less confrontational metaphors.
Refighting the Second World War? Where on earth are you getting this bollox from?
You've gone from a measured, sensible pollster to a rabid fool over this issue.
Your "serious answer" was nothing of the sort, simply more of the infantile name calling you allegedly disapprove of.
Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"
There is no way on earth the Sun will back Remain while Murdoch owns it, he despises the EU, after all the Sun backed Yes in Scotland and lost
Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"
There is no way on earth the Sun will back Remain while Murdoch owns it, he despises the EU, after all the Sun backed Yes in Scotland and lost
They can say: with reluctance, and although there is much that is wrong with the EU, it is for Leave to make the case. The Sun, therefore, recommends - with a heavy heart - that we stay in.
But he'll only do it if: (a) Remain is going to win anyway and (b) He's got assurances from the EU that they won't block the creation of Sky Europe
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
When the dust settles we might just get the Conservative Corbyn moment where the activists are disconnected from the MPs and elect the unelectable.
'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
Accusing Cameron and Co of telling lies requires some proof of you statement. If that's all that Leavers can say they will lose. Posted by a possible Leaver.
If Google Trends is right Trump is battling for third place with Kasich.
Actually from 9am this morning SC time Trump was back im front on Google trends there is a new CBS poll out but CBS still only have the old one up apologies
If Turkey gets into even a moderate shooting war with Russia the refugee movements will make Syria look like a tea party, not to mention that Turkey will also lose all interest in stopping the existing flows, especially if the EU refuses to help.
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
When the dust settles we might just get the Conservative Corbyn moment where the activists are disconnected from the MPs and elect the unelectable.
What price democracy in the EU? What significant non parliamentary rights do we have compared to Malta? I have no idea. Can anyone enlighten me whilst maintaining my will to live?
The total population of the 14 least populated EU member states is less than the individual populations of UK and France (Sweden being no.14). You need the addition of Hungary (no.15) to net Germany.
If the democratic bit of the EU is just the parliamentary bit then Cameron’s deal is surely not democratic without EU parliamentary approval, so can we complain if that’s how it turns out?
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
When the dust settles we might just get the Conservative Corbyn moment where the activists are disconnected from the MPs and elect the unelectable.
2020 might yet be a damned close thing.
Corbyn vs Farage vs Patel
A plague on all our houses.
And yet could be the most interesting election in quite some time.
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
The danger for the Conservative Party is if Remain wins 60:40, and then they elect a hardcore "Out-ter", who moves the party in a direction that has just been fairly roundly rejected by the electorate.
If Google Trends is right Trump is battling for third place with Kasich.
Actually from 9am this morning SC time Trump was back im front on Google trends there is a new CBS poll out but CBS still only have the old one up apologies
Don't mix it up with the national CBS poll that came out 2 days ago.
It does occur to me that the right leaning euro sceptics might have been better off with a minority labour government. Cameron would have gone with a probable more 'sound' successor ready to hold a referendum with an out recommendation when a lab/snp/rump lib government collapsed.
Instead we are faced with the possible cosmic irony of cam making the world safe for european social/Christian democracy. Nick clegg's last laugh?
'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
Accusing Cameron and Co of telling lies requires some proof of you statement. If that's all that Leavers can say they will lose. Posted by a possible Leaver.
Not quite sure how someone deals with this. Cameron has made a series of Statements today which are directly contradicted by the document he has agreed. I assume that he has actually read and understood the document so he must know that what he is saying is not born out by the facts. How would you define that?
If Turkey gets into even a moderate shooting war with Russia the refugee movements will make Syria look like a tea party, not to mention that Turkey will also lose all interest in stopping the existing flows, especially if the EU refuses to help.
Aren't the areas where there are likely to be shooting matches the bits with lots of Kurds in?
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
Quite. Imagine you pounded the streets for a 'eurosceptic' MP, especially in a marginal, enduring all sorts of insults. And you find out that 'eurosceptic' is nothing of the sort.
Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"
There is no way on earth the Sun will back Remain while Murdoch owns it, he despises the EU, after all the Sun backed Yes in Scotland and lost
They can say: with reluctance, and although there is much that is wrong with the EU, it is for Leave to make the case. The Sun, therefore, recommends - with a heavy heart - that we stay in.
But he'll only do it if: (a) Remain is going to win anyway and (b) He's got assurances from the EU that they won't block the creation of Sky Europe
Given Remain will only win narrowly Murdoch will not risk it especially as most Sum readers will vote Leave he does not want to lose them to the Star or Mail
'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
Accusing Cameron and Co of telling lies requires some proof of you statement. If that's all that Leavers can say they will lose. Posted by a possible Leaver.
Not quite sure how someone deals with this. Cameron has made a series of Statements today which are directly contradicted by the document he has agreed. I assume that he has actually read and understood the document so he must know that what he is saying is not born out by the facts. How would you define that?
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
Quite. Imagine you pounded the streets for a 'eurosceptic' MP, especially in a marginal, enduring all sorts of insults. And you find out that 'eurosceptic' is nothing of the sort.
The bitterness will be enormous.
I might just join the conservatives now so I can vote against the reslection of my MP :-)
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
The danger for the Conservative Party is if Remain wins 60:40, and then they elect a hardcore "Out-ter", who moves the party in a direction that has just been fairly roundly rejected by the electorate.
just listening to Cameron's speech. He's really laying on the scare the voters theme
Yep - and it'll be very effective.
Reminds me of Gordon Brown just before the Scottish referendum when he started talking about the State pension.
How many people would have even thought of that being raised as an issue?
But it was very clever - designed to make all those reliant on it think "Oh no, I never dreamt there might even be a chance I might lose some of my pension. That's enough - forget this - we have to stay in the UK".
Very effective tactic indeed.
Now Cameron will do the same this time - it's very noticeable how much he is talking about "safety" - designed to frighten people as much as possible - just like Brown with the State pension.
And the same tactic will be used yet again in GE 2020 against Labour re defence.
'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
Leavers sure do love their Nazi references.
That's another 1/100 shot landed.
A serious question Mr Meeks, what % of those who vote Leave do you consider to be Nazi sympathisers?
Serious answer, constantly refighting the Second World War isn't going to allay any concerns that Leavers are backward-looking Little Englanders. Leavers need to start reaching for less confrontational metaphors.
Outside the metropolitan areas and the dinner party circuit quite a lot of people might take being called a little Englander as some sort of compliment. The metro liberals seem to feel that patriotism and believing in your country is a little jejune, if not rather embarrassing (see Lady Nugee) . Something they have in common with the Corbynistas
Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"
There is no way on earth the Sun will back Remain while Murdoch owns it, he despises the EU, after all the Sun backed Yes in Scotland and lost
They can say: with reluctance, and although there is much that is wrong with the EU, it is for Leave to make the case. The Sun, therefore, recommends - with a heavy heart - that we stay in.
But he'll only do it if: (a) Remain is going to win anyway and (b) He's got assurances from the EU that they won't block the creation of Sky Europe
Given Remain will only win narrowly Murdoch will not risk it especially as most Sum readers will vote Leave he does not want to lose them to the Star or Mail
We'll see; but don't forget that Murdoch's business interests come ahead of any political principles he may (or may not) have.
just listening to Cameron's speech. He's really laying on the scare the voters theme
Yep - and it'll be very effective.
Reminds me of Gordon Brown just before the Scottish referendum when he started talking about the State pension.
How many people would have even thought of that being raised as an issue?
But it was very clever - designed to make all those reliant on it think "Oh no, I never dreamt there might even be a chance I might lose some of my pension. That's enough - forget this - we have to stay in the UK".
Very effective tactic indeed.
Now Cameron will do the same this time - it's very noticeable how much he is talking about "safety" - designed to frighten people as much as possible - just like Brown with the State pension.
And the same tactic will be used yet again in GE 2020 against Labour re defence.
Yes Osborne could threaten to remove our pensions .... oh wait
'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
Leavers sure do love their Nazi references.
That's another 1/100 shot landed.
A serious question Mr Meeks, what % of those who vote Leave do you consider to be Nazi sympathisers?
Serious answer, constantly refighting the Second World War isn't going to allay any concerns that Leavers are backward-looking Little Englanders. Leavers need to start reaching for less confrontational metaphors.
Doesn't one of the centre piece arguments for remaining in the EU revolve around it preventing WW3 and the importance of avoiding the horrors of WW1 and WW2?
If Turkey gets into even a moderate shooting war with Russia the refugee movements will make Syria look like a tea party, not to mention that Turkey will also lose all interest in stopping the existing flows, especially if the EU refuses to help.
Aren't the areas where there are likely to be shooting matches the bits with lots of Kurds in?
That's one of the reasons why Obama is working the phones trying to stop Turkey.
Right now you already have the embarassment of CIA backed rebels fighting Pentagon backed rebels, you don't need Turkey fighting a shooting war with Russia and Iraq on top of the Kurds and the Syrians.
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
The danger for the Conservative Party is if Remain wins 60:40, and then they elect a hardcore "Out-ter", who moves the party in a direction that has just been fairly roundly rejected by the electorate.
A lot of ifs in there, mate.
Only two, really: 1. A biggish win for In (30% probability) then 2. Electing a hardcore Out-er (50%)
'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
Accusing Cameron and Co of telling lies requires some proof of you statement. If that's all that Leavers can say they will lose. Posted by a possible Leaver.
Not quite sure how someone deals with this. Cameron has made a series of Statements today which are directly contradicted by the document he has agreed. I assume that he has actually read and understood the document so he must know that what he is saying is not born out by the facts. How would you define that?
'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
Accusing Cameron and Co of telling lies requires some proof of you statement. If that's all that Leavers can say they will lose. Posted by a possible Leaver.
Not quite sure how someone deals with this. Cameron has made a series of Statements today which are directly contradicted by the document he has agreed. I assume that he has actually read and understood the document so he must know that what he is saying is not born out by the facts. How would you define that?
Cameron has lied openly on various issues before.
Whether he realises he is lying or is capable of Orwellian doublethink I can't say.
Comments
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166424/David-Cameron-has-wrongfooted-everyone-the-EU-referendum-is-his-to-lose.html
Will the fraternal LEAVE brothers of Nigel Farage and George Galloway be supping from each others cream dish ... I'm agog in anticipation.
For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices'
Yes - it's rubbish
This is a very good fictional account of the events before, during and after:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Grass-Crown-Masters-Rome/dp/0099462494
If there are 100+ Leave Tory MPs one wonders how many letters are being written to the 1922 tonight
European diplomats warned that Ankara cannot invoke Article 5
Germany says that NATO cannot 'pay the price for a war started by Turks'
Turkey has called for international ground operation in Syria
Russia called Security Council meeting to halt Turkey's shelling of Kurds
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
I was thinking more of equally-matched adversaries who'd vanquished all potential rivals going to war with each other.
It is clear to everyone that his delay is purely a personal calculation of his leadership chances and nothing to do with his view of the advantages and disadvantages of being in the EU.
I don't think it will help the LEAVE campaign very much if he joins them, particularly if he leads the campaign. It is too serious an issue.
Can you imagine Boris being grilled by Andrew Neil on the consequences of a LEAVE victory?
Neil: So Mr Johnson, if the UK votes LEAVE, what do you believe is the best trading arrangment for the UK - the Norway model, or the Swiss model or something else?
Johnson: (Ruffling his hair) We will be free to make our own decision! We will be free ..
Neil: Yes - but which what do you believe is the best trading arrangment for the UK - the Norway model, or the Swiss or something else?
Johnson: You and i have been friends for a long time Andrew .. waffle, waffle
Neil: Yes - but what do you believe is the best trading arrangment for the UK - the Norway model, or the Swiss or something else?
Johnson: Nescio propter Deum Andrew
Boris is just not going to be able to hack the detailed grilling he will get as leader of the LEAVE campaign. I suspect he knows this. I suspect he will back REMAIN and not be found out.
The MPs will be well aware of the likelihood of Cameron resigning if Leave wins and of their much better mandate to move against him then if he doesn't. If they try to depose him now, when he's delivered on his promise then they'd look ridiculous.
A serious question Mr Meeks, what % of those who vote Leave do you consider to be Nazi sympathisers?
"Us? Reformed? Mwahahahahahahahahahaaaa....."
EDIT:
Nixon: http://s.newsweek.com/sites/www.newsweek.com/files/styles/embedded_full/public/2014/10/06/1010deepthroat07.jpg
Osborne:
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/626832022061875200/rAK0SMIW.jpg
http://www.mirror.co.uk/for-the-record/alex-wood-an-apology-6209529
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/unfortunate-bbc-moustache-for-nigel-farage-8829452.html
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2015/05/26/sandi-toksvig-compares-nigel-farage-to-adolf-hitler/
like referring to our opponents as 'the mob' perhaps?
You've gone from a measured, sensible pollster to a rabid fool over this issue.
Your "serious answer" was nothing of the sort, simply more of the infantile name calling you allegedly disapprove of.
Trump 42%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 9%
Bush 6%
Carson 6%
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-south-carolina-still-solidly-for-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/701084443889381377
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/feb/20/south-carolina-primary-nevada-caucus-live-coverage-us-presidential-election
If Google Trends is right Trump is battling for third place with Kasich.
Yes it's nauseating. It really is the Big Lie.
But he'll only do it if:
(a) Remain is going to win anyway
and
(b) He's got assurances from the EU that they won't block the creation of Sky Europe
2020 might yet be a damned close thing.
Not expecting many takers, mind.
A plague on all our houses.
The total population of the 14 least populated EU member states is less than the individual populations of UK and France (Sweden being no.14). You need the addition of Hungary (no.15) to net Germany.
If the democratic bit of the EU is just the parliamentary bit then Cameron’s deal is surely not democratic without EU parliamentary approval, so can we complain if that’s how it turns out?
Instead we are faced with the possible cosmic irony of cam making the world safe for european social/Christian democracy. Nick clegg's last laugh?
The bitterness will be enormous.
In Nevada they do an entrance poll not an exit poll since it's a caucus.
They start in the morning and finish an hour later.
Reminds me of Gordon Brown just before the Scottish referendum when he started talking about the State pension.
How many people would have even thought of that being raised as an issue?
But it was very clever - designed to make all those reliant on it think "Oh no, I never dreamt there might even be a chance I might lose some of my pension. That's enough - forget this - we have to stay in the UK".
Very effective tactic indeed.
Now Cameron will do the same this time - it's very noticeable how much he is talking about "safety" - designed to frighten people as much as possible - just like Brown with the State pension.
And the same tactic will be used yet again in GE 2020 against Labour re defence.
https://twitter.com/mrjammyjamjar1/status/701079914984960001
Right now you already have the embarassment of CIA backed rebels fighting Pentagon backed rebels, you don't need Turkey fighting a shooting war with Russia and Iraq on top of the Kurds and the Syrians.
1. A biggish win for In (30% probability)
then
2. Electing a hardcore Out-er (50%)
Whether he realises he is lying or is capable of Orwellian doublethink I can't say.