More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace Osborne
'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
Leavers sure do love their Nazi references.
That's another 1/100 shot landed.
A serious question Mr Meeks, what % of those who vote Leave do you consider to be Nazi sympathisers?
Serious answer, constantly refighting the Second World War isn't going to allay any concerns that Leavers are backward-looking Little Englanders. Leavers need to start reaching for less confrontational metaphors.
Doesn't one of the centre piece arguments for remaining in the EU revolve around it preventing WW3 and the importance of avoiding the horrors of WW1 and WW2?
Even though the argument that the EU is responsible for peace in Europe completely mixes up cause and effect, as the actual case is that it's the other way round: peace in Europe has allowed for the EU to develop. Now that peacefulness is beginning to break down, so the EU is breaking down too.
Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"
There is no way on earth the Sun will back Remain while Murdoch owns it, he despises the EU, after all the Sun backed Yes in Scotland and lost
They can say: with reluctance, and although there is much that is wrong with the EU, it is for Leave to make the case. The Sun, therefore, recommends - with a heavy heart - that we stay in.
But he'll only do it if: (a) Remain is going to win anyway and (b) He's got assurances from the EU that they won't block the creation of Sky Europe
Given Remain will only win narrowly Murdoch will not risk it especially as most Sum readers will vote Leave he does not want to lose them to the Star or Mail
We'll see; but don't forget that Murdoch's business interests come ahead of any political principles he may (or may not) have.
I don't know what he will do, but I prefer Britain to be the offshore base for North American operations than European ones. North America is bigger and has better future prospects than Europe.
The number of Better Together people who seem to be suffering total memory loss at appearing at events with and campaigning alongside George Galloway is starting to get a little scary.
Might need to name a new psychological condition after it.
'Not quite sure how someone deals with this. Cameron has made a series of Statements today which are directly contradicted by the document he has agreed. I assume that he has actually read and understood the document so he must know that what he is saying is not born out by the facts. How would you define that?'
'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
Leavers sure do love their Nazi references.
That's another 1/100 shot landed.
A serious question Mr Meeks, what % of those who vote Leave do you consider to be Nazi sympathisers?
Serious answer, constantly refighting the Second World War isn't going to allay any concerns that Leavers are backward-looking Little Englanders. Leavers need to start reaching for less confrontational metaphors.
Doesn't one of the centre piece arguments for remaining in the EU revolve around it preventing WW3 and the importance of avoiding the horrors of WW1 and WW2?
Even though the argument that the EU is responsible for peace in Europe completely mixes up cause and effect, as the actual case is that it's the other way round: peace in Europe has allowed for the EU to develop. Now that peacefulness is beginning to break down, so the EU is breaking down too.
NATO creates the peace for the EU to then exist.
I find it an offensive argument as it plays down the important contribution from NATO and the USA. These people were willing to lay down their lives to protect us and we have people coming out and arguing it was in fact the EU.
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
Well, I _was_ incandescent with rage earlier this morning. I cannot believe that the leader of this country, a man that (until a fortnight or so ago) I respected, can stand there and tell me that this pile of crap that's been excreted from the summit is somehow indicative of a turning point in EU/UK relations.
It's on a par with the lazy, transparent lies of a teenager ("Where have you been? Nowhere?"). I last felt this way when I realised that Blair had completely sold me a pup on Iraq II (I supported the war).
However, I've walked the dogs, eaten some delicious pub food, and all I'm left with is the residual thought of 'fuck 'em'. They'll not get my vote again.
PS The only silver lining has been reading Gove's beautiful, lucid prose on why Leave is the best option for my beloved country.
BBC reporting the DUP will back Leave which will boost the Out campaign in Northern Ireland
I expect that in the end, a very large majority of Unionists will vote Leave.
The DUP will back Leave, the UUP Remain
They are a handful of MPs, the real question is how will their electorate vote, which might be a completely different matter.
If this morning's poll is correct, and Unionists split just over 3:1 Leave, that would give Leave 38% from Unionists. Add in 6% or so from the rest and Northern Ireland would vote about 56/44 Remain.
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
Quite. Imagine you pounded the streets for a 'eurosceptic' MP, especially in a marginal, enduring all sorts of insults. And you find out that 'eurosceptic' is nothing of the sort.
The bitterness will be enormous.
I might just join the conservatives now so I can vote against the reslection of my MP :-)
Sorry, Brookie, you'd only get a vote if the Executive Council decides to initiate deselection. I think Nadhim is safe from your depredations.
'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
Accusing Cameron and Co of telling lies requires some proof of you statement. If that's all that Leavers can say they will lose. Posted by a possible Leaver.
Not quite sure how someone deals with this. Cameron has made a series of Statements today which are directly contradicted by the document he has agreed. I assume that he has actually read and understood the document so he must know that what he is saying is not born out by the facts. How would you define that?
Maybe he didn't read it, or didn't understand it.
Shades of Ken Clarke who admitted he had never read the Maastricht Treaty a decade after he fought so hard to get it passed.
The Tories won't split, the EU ref. result will damage the present leadership and the Remain Tory team leadership prospects, but that's it. It won't even affect voting intention for the GE, but it will affect voting in other areas like local elections where Tory voters can protest safely.
The only thing for sure is that it makes it simpler to see who has the upper hand in any Tory leadership election, since anyone backing Remain will have an automatic disadvantage for that race.
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
The danger for the Conservative Party is if Remain wins 60:40, and then they elect a hardcore "Out-ter", who moves the party in a direction that has just been fairly roundly rejected by the electorate.
Plenty of room for manoeuvre there if the "deal" disintegrates as expected, or is eviscerated by the European Parliament, or as was being touted earlier, thrown out by the ECJ. To make it stick they would pretty much have to do Cameron up like a .... kipper
"The deal was plainly bollox, Cameron sold us a pup, lets do it again only properly this time"
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
A sense of betrayal is a very strong emotion.
Whereas the ability to say "I told you so" is quite delicious for those who previously warned the gullible.
I mean did some people really have any trust in Philip Hammond after his eagerness to implement defence cuts ???
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
Not careerist scum, at least not in the latest decision necessarily. In presenting as more eurosceptic earlier, perhaps. Semantic, I know, but I genuinely think it's not that people want to leave but are too spineless to follow through now in order to save their career, but that they don't want to leave, but were too spineless to be upfront about it and figured a little eurosceptic teasing earlier was permissible (on the grounds that they probably don't like the EU, which is softly eurosceptic) for a quieter time from the genuine skeptics.
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
There are a lot of gleeful harbingers of doom for the Conservative Party out and about today. It won't play like that. Country first - and that means keeping out Corbyn and his loons.
But there are a number of people with ambition who will have had their card marked. I just can't see Osborne, May, Javid or Hammond getting the membership's vote as leader now. Boris has probably buggered up what slim chance he had too, waiting to see which way the wind was blowing.
The party will probably skip Cameron's generation and go for a younger, fresher face - as Cameron was, all those years ago. Lots of betting fun to be had!
Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"
There is no way on earth the Sun will back Remain while Murdoch owns it, he despises the EU, after all the Sun backed Yes in Scotland and lost
They can say: with reluctance, and although there is much that is wrong with the EU, it is for Leave to make the case. The Sun, therefore, recommends - with a heavy heart - that we stay in.
But he'll only do it if: (a) Remain is going to win anyway and (b) He's got assurances from the EU that they won't block the creation of Sky Europe
Given Remain will only win narrowly Murdoch will not risk it especially as most Sum readers will vote Leave he does not want to lose them to the Star or Mail
We'll see; but don't forget that Murdoch's business interests come ahead of any political principles he may (or may not) have.
I don't know what he will do, but I prefer Britain to be the offshore base for North American operations than European ones. North America is bigger and has better future prospects than Europe.
I am a committed and vocal EFTA/EEA supporter. I'm merely pointing out that the Murdochs - for a change - may be desirous of approval from the EU. There may be a secret quid pro quo between the Murdochs and the EU on the subject of the referendum.
BBC reporting the DUP will back Leave which will boost the Out campaign in Northern Ireland
I expect that in the end, a very large majority of Unionists will vote Leave.
The DUP will back Leave, the UUP Remain
Currently on holiday and just picked up the local area free English language paper outside one of the many villa selling estate agents. It claims 'read by 500,000'. How will they vote?
'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
Leavers sure do love their Nazi references.
That's another 1/100 shot landed.
A serious question Mr Meeks, what % of those who vote Leave do you consider to be Nazi sympathisers?
Serious answer, constantly refighting the Second World War isn't going to allay any concerns that Leavers are backward-looking Little Englanders. Leavers need to start reaching for less confrontational metaphors.
Doesn't one of the centre piece arguments for remaining in the EU revolve around it preventing WW3 and the importance of avoiding the horrors of WW1 and WW2?
Even though the argument that the EU is responsible for peace in Europe completely mixes up cause and effect, as the actual case is that it's the other way round: peace in Europe has allowed for the EU to develop. Now that peacefulness is beginning to break down, so the EU is breaking down too.
NATO creates the peace for the EU to then exist.
I find it an offensive argument as it plays down the important contribution from NATO and the USA. These people were willing to lay down their lives to protect us and we have people coming out and arguing it was in fact the EU.
Absolutely. Go back to the 1980s and ask people whether it's the EEC or NATO that is keeping the peace and they'd look at you strangely!
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace Osborne
GOWNBPM
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
Well, I _was_ incandescent with rage earlier this morning. I cannot believe that the leader of this country, a man that (until a fortnight or so ago) I respected, can stand there and tell me that this pile of crap that's been excreted from the summit is somehow indicative of a turning point in EU/UK relations.
It's on a par with the lazy, transparent lies of a teenager ("Where have you been? Nowhere?"). I last felt this way when I realised that Blair had completely sold me a pup on Iraq II (I supported the war).
However, I've walked the dogs, eaten some delicious pub food, and all I'm left with is the residual thought of 'fuck 'em'. They'll not get my vote again.
PS The only silver lining has been reading Gove's beautiful, lucid prose on why Leave is the best option for my beloved country.
All the turncoats and liars need purging from the party. The boundary changes may provide a few opportunities. We also need to make sure a Eurosceptic leader is elected.
If Turkey gets into even a moderate shooting war with Russia the refugee movements will make Syria look like a tea party, not to mention that Turkey will also lose all interest in stopping the existing flows, especially if the EU refuses to help.
Aren't the areas where there are likely to be shooting matches the bits with lots of Kurds in?
Will they stay there if the Russians start dropping cluster bombs on their houses ?
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
The danger for the Conservative Party is if Remain wins 60:40, and then they elect a hardcore "Out-ter", who moves the party in a direction that has just been fairly roundly rejected by the electorate.
Plenty of room for manoeuvre there if the "deal" disintegrates as expected, or is eviscerated by the European Parliament, or as was being touted earlier, thrown out by the ECJ. To make it stick they would pretty much have to do Cameron up like a .... kipper
"The deal was plainly bollox, Cameron sold us a pup, lets do it again only properly this time"
We'd clearly be fine in those circumstances, and I think the political pressure then would be enormous. I think there would be a groundswell (maybe 60%) of support for Leave on the basis that the EU had reneged.
'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
Leavers sure do love their Nazi references.
That's another 1/100 shot landed.
A serious question Mr Meeks, what % of those who vote Leave do you consider to be Nazi sympathisers?
Serious answer, constantly refighting the Second World War isn't going to allay any concerns that Leavers are backward-looking Little Englanders. Leavers need to start reaching for less confrontational metaphors.
Doesn't one of the centre piece arguments for remaining in the EU revolve around it preventing WW3 and the importance of avoiding the horrors of WW1 and WW2?
Even though the argument that the EU is responsible for peace in Europe completely mixes up cause and effect, as the actual case is that it's the other way round: peace in Europe has allowed for the EU to develop. Now that peacefulness is beginning to break down, so the EU is breaking down too.
NATO creates the peace for the EU to then exist.
I find it an offensive argument as it plays down the important contribution from NATO and the USA. These people were willing to lay down their lives to protect us and we have people coming out and arguing it was in fact the EU.
And in general, warfare between democracies is unusual.
Warfare usually occurs between non-democratic States, or between a democratic State and a non-democratic State.
The number of Better Together people who seem to be suffering total memory loss at appearing at events with and campaigning alongside George Galloway is starting to get a little scary.
Might need to name a new psychological condition after it.
Once you've erased the memory of campaigning with whole parties, expunging one wee, baldy bloke is a dawdle.
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace Osborne
You'd like that, but I suspect not. Osborne is increasingly unlikely to be Cameron's successor and 2020 is looking like nothing short of a Tory majority, especially with boundary changes.
Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"
There is no way on earth the Sun will back Remain while Murdoch owns it, he despises the EU, after all the Sun backed Yes in Scotland and lost
They can say: with reluctance, and although there is much that is wrong with the EU, it is for Leave to make the case. The Sun, therefore, recommends - with a heavy heart - that we stay in.
But he'll only do it if: (a) Remain is going to win anyway and (b) He's got assurances from the EU that they won't block the creation of Sky Europe
Given Remain will only win narrowly Murdoch will not risk it especially as most Sum readers will vote Leave he does not want to lose them to the Star or Mail
We'll see; but don't forget that Murdoch's business interests come ahead of any political principles he may (or may not) have.
I don't know what he will do, but I prefer Britain to be the offshore base for North American operations than European ones. North America is bigger and has better future prospects than Europe.
I am a committed and vocal EFTA/EEA supporter. I'm merely pointing out that the Murdochs - for a change - may be desirous of approval from the EU. There may be a secret quid pro quo between the Murdochs and the EU on the subject of the referendum.
Banal+ and a Spanish channel are not worth a lot (compared with FOX and Sky), and the future prospects of the French and Spanish consumer markets are less than stellar. Investing plenty of money in a shrinking market is not the right idea, if Murdoch wants to burn cash quicker he should back Jeb Bush for president.
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
Well, I _was_ incandescent with rage earlier this morning. I cannot believe that the leader of this country, a man that (until a fortnight or so ago) I respected, can stand there and tell me that this pile of crap that's been excreted from the summit is somehow indicative of a turning point in EU/UK relations.
It's on a par with the lazy, transparent lies of a teenager ("Where have you been? Nowhere?"). I last felt this way when I realised that Blair had completely sold me a pup on Iraq II (I supported the war).
However, I've walked the dogs, eaten some delicious pub food, and all I'm left with is the residual thought of 'fuck 'em'. They'll not get my vote again.
PS The only silver lining has been reading Gove's beautiful, lucid prose on why Leave is the best option for my beloved country.
As you say it isn;t the deal, its what the deal is being dressed up as. Its the insult to our intelligence that is the really galling thing.
If Google Trends is right Trump is battling for third place with Kasich.
Actually from 9am this morning SC time Trump was back im front on Google trends there is a new CBS poll out but CBS still only have the old one up apologies
Don't mix it up with the national CBS poll that came out 2 days ago.
CBS/Survey Monkey SC is Trump 43 Rubio 21 Cruz 14. Google trends is now Trump 30 Rubio 23 Cruz 21
If Turkey gets into even a moderate shooting war with Russia the refugee movements will make Syria look like a tea party, not to mention that Turkey will also lose all interest in stopping the existing flows, especially if the EU refuses to help.
Aren't the areas where there are likely to be shooting matches the bits with lots of Kurds in?
Will they stay there if the Russians start dropping cluster bombs on their houses ?
The reason I ask is because the US has been a very vocal supporter of Kurdish statehood and protects the Kurdish pseudo-state in Iraq.
If it is the Kurdish part of Turkey that is attacked, I think Obama may act.
The EU and the refugee crisis will be the least of our worries at that point.
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace Osborne
GOWNBPM
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.
If Remain wins Osborne will succeed Cameron with Javid as Chancellor
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace Osborne
GOWNBPM
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.
I'm not even convinced that Osbourne wants to be PM. I think him cutting a deal with Johnson to support him is more likely.
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace Osborne
You'd like that, but I suspect not. Osborne is increasingly unlikely to be Cameron's successor and 2020 is looking like nothing short of a Tory majority, especially with boundary changes.
I would never vote for a conservative party led by that scumbag Osborne. I'd rather see McDonnell become chancellor. At least he's honest about who he is and what he'll do.
Osborne by contrast, will produce a Brownian turd of a budget next month and pretend he's a conservative.
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace Osborne
GOWNBPM
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.
If Remain wins Osborne will succeed Cameron with Javid as Chancellor
If remain wins Dave stays on until 2019.
Tories look at Osborne and then say he's fking unelectable and choose someone else.
BBC reporting the DUP will back Leave which will boost the Out campaign in Northern Ireland
I expect that in the end, a very large majority of Unionists will vote Leave.
The DUP will back Leave, the UUP Remain
Currently on holiday and just picked up the local area free English language paper outside one of the many villa selling estate agents. It claims 'read by 500,000'. How will they vote?
Costa Del Sol retirees will vote Leave Provence and Tuscany retirees will vote Remain
If Google Trends is right Trump is battling for third place with Kasich.
Actually from 9am this morning SC time Trump was back im front on Google trends there is a new CBS poll out but CBS still only have the old one up apologies
Don't mix it up with the national CBS poll that came out 2 days ago.
CBS/Survey Monkey SC is Trump 43 Rubio 21 Cruz 14. Google trends is now Trump 30 Rubio 23 Cruz 21
Can you give the source for the CBS one? Usually it's yougov not SurveyMonkey (can they change their name to something more serious?), but their both online pollsters.
Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
Quite. Imagine you pounded the streets for a 'eurosceptic' MP, especially in a marginal, enduring all sorts of insults. And you find out that 'eurosceptic' is nothing of the sort.
The bitterness will be enormous.
I might just join the conservatives now so I can vote against the reslection of my MP :-)
Sorry, Brookie, you'd only get a vote if the Executive Council decides to initiate deselection. I think Nadhim is safe from your depredations.
Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
The Tories won't split, the EU ref. result will damage the present leadership and the Remain Tory team leadership prospects, but that's it. It won't even affect voting intention for the GE, but it will affect voting in other areas like local elections where Tory voters can protest safely.
The only thing for sure is that it makes it simpler to see who has the upper hand in any Tory leadership election, since anyone backing Remain will have an automatic disadvantage for that race.
If it is a narrow Remain some Leave Tories will switch to UKIP. In 2020 a result something like Tories 32% Labour 31% UKIP 20% is very possible .
The Tories won't split, the EU ref. result will damage the present leadership and the Remain Tory team leadership prospects, but that's it. It won't even affect voting intention for the GE, but it will affect voting in other areas like local elections where Tory voters can protest safely.
The only thing for sure is that it makes it simpler to see who has the upper hand in any Tory leadership election, since anyone backing Remain will have an automatic disadvantage for that race.
It might well affect the number of activists prepared to donate their shoe leather to a "eurosceptic" candidate that when the key moment arrived, chickened out.
Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"
There is no way on earth the Sun will back Remain while Murdoch owns it, he despises the EU, after all the Sun backed Yes in Scotland and lost
They can say: with reluctance, and although there is much that is wrong with the EU, it is for Leave to make the case. The Sun, therefore, recommends - with a heavy heart - that we stay in.
But he'll only do it if: (a) Remain is going to win anyway and (b) He's got assurances from the EU that they won't block the creation of Sky Europe
Given Remain will only win narrowly Murdoch will not risk it especially as most Sum readers will vote Leave he does not want to lose them to the Star or Mail
We'll see; but don't forget that Murdoch's business interests come ahead of any political principles he may (or may not) have.
I don't know what he will do, but I prefer Britain to be the offshore base for North American operations than European ones. North America is bigger and has better future prospects than Europe.
I am a committed and vocal EFTA/EEA supporter. I'm merely pointing out that the Murdochs - for a change - may be desirous of approval from the EU. There may be a secret quid pro quo between the Murdochs and the EU on the subject of the referendum.
Banal+ and a Spanish channel are not worth a lot (compared with FOX and Sky), and the future prospects of the French and Spanish consumer markets are less than stellar. Investing plenty of money in a shrinking market is not the right idea, if Murdoch wants to burn cash quicker he should back Jeb Bush for president.
It is the stated goal of Sky to become Sky Europe. I'm not speculating here, this is the stated objective of Sky.
The US market is fragmented, with DirecTV, Cablevision, TimeWarner Cable, Comcast, and Dish. There is no (or virtually no) exclusive content.
Sky and the Murdochs want to change the structure of rights in Europe: they want to own all the rights for football, for movies etc. etc.
just listening to Cameron's speech. He's really laying on the scare the voters theme
Yep - and it'll be very effective.
Reminds me of Gordon Brown just before the Scottish referendum when he started talking about the State pension.
How many people would have even thought of that being raised as an issue?
But it was very clever - designed to make all those reliant on it think "Oh no, I never dreamt there might even be a chance I might lose some of my pension. That's enough - forget this - we have to stay in the UK".
Very effective tactic indeed.
Now Cameron will do the same this time - it's very noticeable how much he is talking about "safety" - designed to frighten people as much as possible - just like Brown with the State pension.
And the same tactic will be used yet again in GE 2020 against Labour re defence.
The friend I was speaking to earlier, who thought Cameron was advocating LEAVE, ie not interested in politics, said "We've got to leave cos of all that shit that's going on in Europe, we aren't safe"
Interesting that the PM will try and go directly against that feeling. Normal people consider the EU unsafe because of the migrant crisis
Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
Perhaps it's because your memebrship fees are too high Mr O.
may6be if you dropped it to three quid you could entice a lot more of us to sign up.
Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists .... post here? I think we divide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
Sadly I do expect some form of civil war after. 1. Cameron, Feldman and Osborne have not been playing fair with use of party resources and Feldman has been tapping up donors for the Remain campaign. 2. The octopus workings of Osborne are piling up resentment in the MPs. 3. Feldman's review of the party is likely to increase the "them and us" tensions between associations and CCHQ and Feldman starts from a low base of approval amongst members.
If Turkey gets into even a moderate shooting war with Russia the refugee movements will make Syria look like a tea party, not to mention that Turkey will also lose all interest in stopping the existing flows, especially if the EU refuses to help.
Aren't the areas where there are likely to be shooting matches the bits with lots of Kurds in?
Will they stay there if the Russians start dropping cluster bombs on their houses ?
The reason I ask is because the US has been a very vocal supporter of Kurdish statehood and protects the Kurdish pseudo-state in Iraq.
If it is the Kurdish part of Turkey that is attacked, I think Obama may act.
The EU and the refugee crisis will be the least of our worries at that point.
The only people attacking Kurds are Turkey and ISIS. Not Russia nor the US. The Kurdish part of Turkey is already being attacked - by Turkey. Turkey is also shelling Kurds who are fighting ISIS in Azaz. Obama is already acting (on the phone) on Erdogan.
Osborne by contrast, will produce a Brownian turd of a budget next month and pretend he's a conservative.
So that's what Brownian motion means!
Any whispers about Boris's intentions? I was expecting his decision to be in tomorrow's papers, but it's too late now. Is he planning to knife his fellow Old Etonian and Bullingdon Clubber shortly before Cameron gets interviewed by Andrew Marr tomorrow? What, and still get the OE invitations? I kind of doubt it. More likely he won't make a big bang but will squib it with a silly phrase that essentially means "Yeah, nice one, Dave", maybe tomorrow afternoon or evening when the world has stopped giving a damn.
The prior question is whether the City of London got what it wanted in the deal, and on the face of it it seems they probably did, even if one could reasonably add the words "for now". This is the "France wimped out" reading, which is no more than a guess. If Boris stabs, I'll reconsider.
I mean did some people really have any trust in Philip Hammond after his eagerness to implement defence cuts ???
The ones with no credibility what so ever are the Cameroon bullshit artists that have been telling us for months that something important would happen. The sceptics have been saying since the middle of last year that Cameron would come home with a little bit of tinsel and try and dress it up as the second coming...
"Oh no!" quote the Nabavi Tendancy, "you must not prejudge the negotiations, Dave will bring home the bacon just you wait and see.". There were accusations of prejudgement, queries about were we actually in the conference room, and the whole slew of semantics to try and deflect the the inadequacy that everyone with a brain knew was coming.
Over the last year the deal has got thinner and thinner, and we have been reassured of rabbits from hats, last minute ploys, tough negotiating tactics, Dave will do it, Batting for Britain... AND IT WAS ALL BULLSHIT
Some small piece of tinsel delivered as anticipate and oversold as expected. Don't expect to be taken seriously on this or similar matters again.. ever.
Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
Unless there is a monumental victory for Remain, I think your analysis is correct: the party will want an Out-ter.
But I think it needs to be someone who can bring the party back together again. It cannot be someone divisive.
Apparently Boris has decided to wait to decide until he's heard Cameron give a speech on Parliamentary sovereignty. Don't rush him! These career decisions take time. LOL
Taking time to find the right historical allegory? Is it the Ides of March or ....the formation of the 1922 against the coalition government of David Lloyd George?
Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
Perhaps it's because your memebrship fees are too high Mr O.
may6be if you dropped it to three quid you could entice a lot more of us to sign up.
( muffled guffaw)
Your very special rate is £3000 because we're worth it.
Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
I just read Gove's excellent statement. I never liked him at education, but he's done good things at justice and after reading that I am tempte to join the Tories to vote for him as leader.
Us centre left eurosceptics don't have many options!!
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
Well, I _was_ incandescent with rage earlier this morning. I cannot believe that the leader of this country, a man that (until a fortnight or so ago) I respected, can stand there and tell me that this pile of crap that's been excreted from the summit is somehow indicative of a turning point in EU/UK relations.
It's on a par with the lazy, transparent lies of a teenager ("Where have you been? Nowhere?"). I last felt this way when I realised that Blair had completely sold me a pup on Iraq II (I supported the war).
However, I've walked the dogs, eaten some delicious pub food, and all I'm left with is the residual thought of 'fuck 'em'. They'll not get my vote again.
PS The only silver lining has been reading Gove's beautiful, lucid prose on why Leave is the best option for my beloved country.
All the turncoats and liars need purging from the party. The boundary changes may provide a few opportunities. We also need to make sure a Eurosceptic leader is elected.
Absolutely. The referendum is a great way of defining for sure which Tory MPs are genuine eurosceptics. Those who have changed their tune since last night (ie now support Remain) should watch their backs.
There are a lot of gleeful harbingers of doom for the Conservative Party out and about today. It won't play like that. Country first - and that means keeping out Corbyn and his loons.
But there are a number of people with ambition who will have had their card marked. I just can't see Osborne, May, Javid or Hammond getting the membership's vote as leader now. Boris has probably buggered up what slim chance he had too, waiting to see which way the wind was blowing.
The party will probably skip Cameron's generation and go for a younger, fresher face - as Cameron was, all those years ago. Lots of betting fun to be had!
Shame so many Tory MPs have forgotten the 'country first' mantra.
Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
Unless there is a monumental victory for Remain, I think your analysis is correct: the party will want an Out-ter.
But I think it needs to be someone who can bring the party back together again. It cannot be someone divisive.
Healing the conservatives after this might take some doing.
Murdoch is also a very old man now. He will relish, emotionally, one last chance to give the hated British Establishment a kicking. Moreover, you overdo the Sky stuff. And you also overstate the infuence he has over his editors.
But we have a bet on this. I am pretty sure you won't win.
I suspect the most likely outcome will be a wash: with the Sun backing Out, and the Times going for Remain.
Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
Osborne will likely be Tory leader if a narrow Remain but UKIP will see a mini SNP style surge
Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
Perhaps it's because your memebrship fees are too high Mr O.
may6be if you dropped it to three quid you could entice a lot more of us to sign up.
( muffled guffaw)
Your very special rate is £3000 because we're worth it.
Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
Me in the past and Plato was active at GE15.
I'm hardly an activist, but I did leaflet for my local MP (David Davies [Monmouth]) as he's a nice bloke and he lives about 100 yards up the hill from me.
Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago #EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
Quite. Imagine you pounded the streets for a 'eurosceptic' MP, especially in a marginal, enduring all sorts of insults. And you find out that 'eurosceptic' is nothing of the sort.
The bitterness will be enormous.
I might just join the conservatives now so I can vote against the reslection of my MP :-)
Sorry, Brookie, you'd only get a vote if the Executive Council decides to initiate deselection. I think Nadhim is safe from your depredations.
How does that work when 650 become 600 ?
Depends what Feldman pulls off in the structural review.
If Google Trends is right Trump is battling for third place with Kasich.
Actually from 9am this morning SC time Trump was back im front on Google trends there is a new CBS poll out but CBS still only have the old one up apologies
Don't mix it up with the national CBS poll that came out 2 days ago.
CBS/Survey Monkey SC is Trump 43 Rubio 21 Cruz 14. Google trends is now Trump 30 Rubio 23 Cruz 21
Can you give the source for the CBS one? Usually it's yougov not SurveyMonkey (can they change their name to something more serious?), but their both online pollsters.
It is on Twitter but I am posting in the back of a car
Murdoch is also a very old man now. He will relish, emotionally, one last chance to give the hated British Establishment a kicking. Moreover, you overdo the Sky stuff. And you also overstate the infuence he has over his editors.
But we have a bet on this. I am pretty sure you won't win.
I suspect the most likely outcome will be a wash: with the Sun backing Out, and the Times going for Remain.
The Times has been mercilessly on message for Remain.
BBC reporting the DUP will back Leave which will boost the Out campaign in Northern Ireland
I expect that in the end, a very large majority of Unionists will vote Leave.
The DUP will back Leave, the UUP Remain
Currently on holiday and just picked up the local area free English language paper outside one of the many villa selling estate agents. It claims 'read by 500,000'. How will they vote?
Costa Del Sol retirees will vote Leave Provence and Tuscany retirees will vote Remain
Gosh you are class ridden. I'm embarrassed to say it but the part I am on is quite upmarket.
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace Osborne
GOWNBPM
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.
If Remain wins Osborne will succeed Cameron with Javid as Chancellor
If remain wins Dave stays on until 2019.
Tories look at Osborne and then say he's fking unelectable and choose someone else.
If Turkey gets into even a moderate shooting war with Russia the refugee movements will make Syria look like a tea party, not to mention that Turkey will also lose all interest in stopping the existing flows, especially if the EU refuses to help.
Aren't the areas where there are likely to be shooting matches the bits with lots of Kurds in?
Will they stay there if the Russians start dropping cluster bombs on their houses ?
The reason I ask is because the US has been a very vocal supporter of Kurdish statehood and protects the Kurdish pseudo-state in Iraq.
If it is the Kurdish part of Turkey that is attacked, I think Obama may act.
The EU and the refugee crisis will be the least of our worries at that point.
The most likely people to attack the Kurdish part of Turkey are the Turks themselves. Indeed they are already bombing Turkish positions in Syria and Iraq.
Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
My old constituency chairman who is someone who thinks it is a shame Bill Cash has never been Tory leader, has been in contact today, his view.
Dave's giving us a referendum, he's not loaded it, he's let the cabinet oppose him, there's been no rancour, no resignations, may the best side win.
There's not going to be a split, he's not going to let that [expletives deleted] Corbyn become PM on my watch. We're not making the mistakes of 1992 to 1997 again.
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace Osborne
GOWNBPM
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.
I'm not even convinced that Osbourne wants to be PM. I think him cutting a deal with Johnson to support him is more likely.
Why has he taken on the role of Dave's deputy and features in many announcements that are the responsibility of other departments? Judge a man by his actions.
Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
Unless there is a monumental victory for Remain, I think your analysis is correct: the party will want an Out-ter.
But I think it needs to be someone who can bring the party back together again. It cannot be someone divisive.
But, and this seems to be under-rated, they have to be an instantly credible Prime Minister. No party membership has ever directly elected a PM before. If an Outer, this limits the field to Gove and (at a stretch) Patel, unless Boris goes Leave.
Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
Unless there is a monumental victory for Remain, I think your analysis is correct: the party will want an Out-ter.
But I think it needs to be someone who can bring the party back together again. It cannot be someone divisive.
I can also see a split between an Outer that wants a hardline renegotiation on next EU treaty and one that wants to stick to Cameron's terms of standing aside.
Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"
t
Europe
We'll see; but don't forget that Murdoch's business interests come ahead of any political principles he may (or may not) have.
I don't know what he will do, but I prefer Britain to be the offshore base for North American operations than European ones. North America is bigger and has better future prospects than Europe.
I am a committed and vocal EFTA/EEA supporter. I'm merely pointing out that the Murdochs - for a change - may be desirous of approval from the EU. There may be a secret quid pro quo between the Murdochs and the EU on the subject of the referendum.
Banal+ and a Spanish channel are not worth a lot (compared with FOX and Sky), and the future prospects of the French and Spanish consumer markets are less than stellar. Investing plenty of money in a shrinking market is not the right idea, if Murdoch wants to burn cash quicker he should back Jeb Bush for president.
It is the stated goal of Sky to become Sky Europe. I'm not speculating here, this is the stated objective of Sky.
The US market is fragmented, with DirecTV, Cablevision, TimeWarner Cable, Comcast, and Dish. There is no (or virtually no) exclusive content.
Sky and the Murdochs want to change the structure of rights in Europe: they want to own all the rights for football, for movies etc. etc.
Murdoch will be better off investing money on growing markets, if he invests a lot in europe he might end up like Leo Kirch.
Kirch made the mistake of trying to build a european media empire based from Germany and rivaled Murdoch, however Murdoch won because his companies invested in N.America and Britain which have larger and healthier consumer markets than continental Europe and Germany.
Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
My old constituency chairman who is someone who thinks it is a shame Bill Cash has never been Tory leader, has been in contact today, his view.
Dave's giving us a referendum, he's not loaded it, he's let the cabinet oppose him, there's been no rancour, no resignations, may the best side win.
There's not going to be a split, he's not going to let that [expletives deleted] Corbyn become PM on my watch. We're not making the mistakes of 1992 to 1997 again.
Precisely so. You have to be a member of the tribe to understand it.
Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
My old constituency chairman who is someone who thinks it is a shame Bill Cash has never been Tory leader, has been in contact today, his view.
Dave's giving us a referendum, he's not loaded it, he's let the cabinet oppose him, there's been no rancour, no resignations, may the best side win.
There's not going to be a split, he's not going to let that [expletives deleted] Corbyn become PM on my watch. We're not making the mistakes of 1992 to 1997 again.
OGH, worth a couple of threads on 1. What happens to the Conservative party if Remain wins? 2. What happens to the Conservative party if Leave wins? It affects the betting on next Leader and PM.
Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace Osborne
GOWNBPM
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.
If Remain wins Osborne will succeed Cameron with Javid as Chancellor
If remain wins Dave stays on until 2019.
Tories look at Osborne and then say he's fking unelectable and choose someone else.
They are not going to choose Gove or IDS
I've not for one moment suggested they will.
They will in all likelihood do what they have done before and chose an unknown rather than the front runners.
Furthermore since the Cameroons have now held the reins since 2007, they are more likely imo to decide on a changing of the guard. It will be 13 years by 2020.
This Tory member of 40 years standing is beside hmself with tolerance, emolience and tenderness. Philip is my next door MP and he won't suffer any backlash, neither will Dom Raab whichever side he chooses.
Precisely.
It's only the more loony Leavers who talk about 'betrayal' and who are so conceited or wilfully blind that they think the only people who are principled are those voting Leave.
The more sensible of us accept that there are arguments on either side. I read Michael Gove's excellent statement with great interest (although I was a bit puzzled by his claim that the EU prevents us building houses), and I respect those who argue coherently on the other side.
Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
Unless there is a monumental victory for Remain, I think your analysis is correct: the party will want an Out-ter.
But I think it needs to be someone who can bring the party back together again. It cannot be someone divisive.
But, and this seems to be under-rated, they have to be an instantly credible Prime Minister. No party membership has ever directly elected a PM before. If an Outer, this limits the field to Gove and (at a stretch) Patel, unless Boris goes Leave.
There are more and they will get an opportunity to fly or sink.
Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
Who are "we"? Much of the Tory base - not the activists, but the party's base - view Cameron as something close to a traitor. They're in sore need of a leader, but so was much of the Labour base when Blair and Mandelson and Powell took over in 1994, and they didn't get one. Farage would be the logical choice, but this isn't logical.
As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.
Me neither and we'll be knackered after the locals on May 6th.
As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.
Osborne by contrast, will produce a Brownian turd of a budget next month and pretend he's a conservative.
So that's what Brownian motion means!
Any whispers about Boris's intentions? I was expecting his decision to be in tomorrow's papers, but it's too late now. Is he planning to knife his fellow Old Etonian and Bullingdon Clubber shortly before Cameron gets interviewed by Andrew Marr tomorrow? What, and still get the OE invitations? I kind of doubt it. More likely he won't make a big bang but will squib it with a silly phrase that essentially means "Yeah, nice one, Dave", maybe tomorrow afternoon or evening when the world has stopped giving a damn.
The prior question is whether the City of London got what it wanted in the deal, and on the face of it it seems they probably did, even if one could reasonably add the words "for now". This is the "France wimped out" reading, which is no more than a guess. If Boris stabs, I'll reconsider.
No. France won hands down. Cameron got absolutely nothing on protection for the city.
Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
My old constituency chairman who is someone who thinks it is a shame Bill Cash has never been Tory leader, has been in contact today, his view.
Dave's giving us a referendum, he's not loaded it, he's let the cabinet oppose him, there's been no rancour, no resignations, may the best side win.
There's not going to be a split, he's not going to let that [expletives deleted] Corbyn become PM on my watch. We're not making the mistakes of 1992 to 1997 again.
Precisely so. You have to be a member of the tribe to understand it.
i think that Corbyn concentrates minds wonderfully.
Comments
NATO creates the peace for the EU to then exist.
North America is bigger and has better future prospects than Europe.
Try putting your finger in the corner of your mouth and you might just get it.
Might need to name a new psychological condition after it.
Lying
It's on a par with the lazy, transparent lies of a teenager ("Where have you been? Nowhere?"). I last felt this way when I realised that Blair had completely sold me a pup on Iraq II (I supported the war).
However, I've walked the dogs, eaten some delicious pub food, and all I'm left with is the residual thought of 'fuck 'em'. They'll not get my vote again.
PS The only silver lining has been reading Gove's beautiful, lucid prose on why Leave is the best option for my beloved country.
In that case I'm on the side of Penny Mordaunt and Priti Patel and hope to be nominated to spend time in the jungle (not the Calais one) with them.
Remainers can have Toynbee and Tom Watson
It won't even affect voting intention for the GE, but it will affect voting in other areas like local elections where Tory voters can protest safely.
The only thing for sure is that it makes it simpler to see who has the upper hand in any Tory leadership election, since anyone backing Remain will have an automatic disadvantage for that race.
"The deal was plainly bollox, Cameron sold us a pup, lets do it again only properly this time"
Whereas the ability to say "I told you so" is quite delicious for those who previously warned the gullible.
I mean did some people really have any trust in Philip Hammond after his eagerness to implement defence cuts ???
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-12294766
But there are a number of people with ambition who will have had their card marked. I just can't see Osborne, May, Javid or Hammond getting the membership's vote as leader now. Boris has probably buggered up what slim chance he had too, waiting to see which way the wind was blowing.
The party will probably skip Cameron's generation and go for a younger, fresher face - as Cameron was, all those years ago. Lots of betting fun to be had!
How will they vote?
EEC referendum, 1975
EU referendum, 2016
Forty-one years
AKA "a generation", as in "once in...."
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.
@stephenkb @DavidMills73 @JohnRentoul MP split in Apr 75 HoC vote - Lab: Yes 137, No 145, 33 didn't vote; Con: Yes 249, No 8, 18 didn't vote
Warfare usually occurs between non-democratic States, or between a democratic State and a non-democratic State.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3455604/BBC-s-Savile-sex-abuse-probe-waited-THREE-YEARS-talk-key-witness-unmasked-presenter-serial-paedophile-rapist.html
Investing plenty of money in a shrinking market is not the right idea, if Murdoch wants to burn cash quicker he should back Jeb Bush for president.
If it is the Kurdish part of Turkey that is attacked, I think Obama may act.
The EU and the refugee crisis will be the least of our worries at that point.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/20/was-it-wrong-to-get-celebrities-to-pose-wearing-emergency-blankets-berlin-charlize-theron
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6944794/YouTuber-arrested-after-showing-users-how-to-make-weapons-that-could-pass-through-UK-airports-undetected.html
Osborne by contrast, will produce a Brownian turd of a budget next month and pretend he's a conservative.
Tories look at Osborne and then say he's fking unelectable and choose someone else.
Usually it's yougov not SurveyMonkey (can they change their name to something more serious?), but their both online pollsters.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
In or Out: The arguments for and against #Brexit https://t.co/mt2hD4gZ0m https://t.co/qRJ1pwPcQr
.
The US market is fragmented, with DirecTV, Cablevision, TimeWarner Cable, Comcast, and Dish. There is no (or virtually no) exclusive content.
Sky and the Murdochs want to change the structure of rights in Europe: they want to own all the rights for football, for movies etc. etc.
That's a pretty enormous prize.
Interesting that the PM will try and go directly against that feeling. Normal people consider the EU unsafe because of the migrant crisis
Maybe he will tell us its "false consciousness"
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
may6be if you dropped it to three quid you could entice a lot more of us to sign up.
( muffled guffaw)
1. Cameron, Feldman and Osborne have not been playing fair with use of party resources and Feldman has been tapping up donors for the Remain campaign.
2. The octopus workings of Osborne are piling up resentment in the MPs.
3. Feldman's review of the party is likely to increase the "them and us" tensions between associations and CCHQ and Feldman starts from a low base of approval amongst members.
Don't rush him! These career decisions take time.
LOL
Any whispers about Boris's intentions? I was expecting his decision to be in tomorrow's papers, but it's too late now. Is he planning to knife his fellow Old Etonian and Bullingdon Clubber shortly before Cameron gets interviewed by Andrew Marr tomorrow? What, and still get the OE invitations? I kind of doubt it. More likely he won't make a big bang but will squib it with a silly phrase that essentially means "Yeah, nice one, Dave", maybe tomorrow afternoon or evening when the world has stopped giving a damn.
The prior question is whether the City of London got what it wanted in the deal, and on the face of it it seems they probably did, even if one could reasonably add the words "for now". This is the "France wimped out" reading, which is no more than a guess. If Boris stabs, I'll reconsider.
"Oh no!" quote the Nabavi Tendancy, "you must not prejudge the negotiations, Dave will bring home the bacon just you wait and see.". There were accusations of prejudgement, queries about were we actually in the conference room, and the whole slew of semantics to try and deflect the the inadequacy that everyone with a brain knew was coming.
Over the last year the deal has got thinner and thinner, and we have been reassured of rabbits from hats, last minute ploys, tough negotiating tactics, Dave will do it, Batting for Britain... AND IT WAS ALL BULLSHIT
Some small piece of tinsel delivered as anticipate and oversold as expected. Don't expect to be taken seriously on this or similar matters again.. ever.
But I think it needs to be someone who can bring the party back together again. It cannot be someone divisive.
Love L'Orealy Hersham
Us centre left eurosceptics don't have many options!!
Three thousand egyptian pounds on their way Mr O
Dave's giving us a referendum, he's not loaded it, he's let the cabinet oppose him, there's been no rancour, no resignations, may the best side win.
There's not going to be a split, he's not going to let that [expletives deleted] Corbyn become PM on my watch. We're not making the mistakes of 1992 to 1997 again.
http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/entertainment-media/outlook/segment-insights/tv-advertising.html
https://www.digitaltvresearch.com/ugc/tv advg 2013 sample pdf_sample_81.pdf
Murdoch will be better off investing money on growing markets, if he invests a lot in europe he might end up like Leo Kirch.
Kirch made the mistake of trying to build a european media empire based from Germany and rivaled Murdoch, however Murdoch won because his companies invested in N.America and Britain which have larger and healthier consumer markets than continental Europe and Germany.
1. What happens to the Conservative party if Remain wins?
2. What happens to the Conservative party if Leave wins?
It affects the betting on next Leader and PM.
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.
They will in all likelihood do what they have done before and chose an unknown rather than the front runners.
Furthermore since the Cameroons have now held the reins since 2007, they are more likely imo to decide on a changing of the guard. It will be 13 years by 2020.
It's only the more loony Leavers who talk about 'betrayal' and who are so conceited or wilfully blind that they think the only people who are principled are those voting Leave.
The more sensible of us accept that there are arguments on either side. I read Michael Gove's excellent statement with great interest (although I was a bit puzzled by his claim that the EU prevents us building houses), and I respect those who argue coherently on the other side.