As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.
I'll do my bit for Remain.
I'm editing PB from the 1st of June until the 21st of June.
I don't think I'm going to have the energy to do any campaigning.
Though, you'll get a few thread headers with the headline "Europe - The Final Countdown"
With Or Without EU - U2 I Just Can't Get EU Out Of My Head - Kylie Minogue We Will Rock EU - Queen
I'll be campaigning for LEAVE.
I don't really care who gets official designation - GO or Vote Leave, it's the final result I'm interested in. (But did I cringe to see Galloway on stage last night?! From the way Galloway was introduced, with Farage talking about the need to put differences aside and work together to get the right result, I had started to hope it would be a prominent Vote Leave member, and that Farage was announcing a merger of the two campaigns).
If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"
Hmm, I knew the problem with Saudi society was big, but not that big:
ian bremmer @ianbremmer 6h6 hours ago Saudi Arabia 70% of population under 30 70% of labor force employed by the govt 90% of govt revenue from oil #yikes
As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.
I'll do my bit for Remain.
I'm editing PB from the 1st of June until the 21st of June.
I don't think I'm going to have the energy to do any campaigning.
Though, you'll get a few thread headers with the headline "Europe - The Final Countdown"
With Or Without EU - U2 I Just Can't Get EU Out Of My Head - Kylie Minogue We Will Rock EU - Queen
I'll be campaigning for LEAVE.
I don't really care who gets official designation - GO or Vote Leave, it's the final result I'm interested in. (But did I cringe to see Galloway on stage last night?! From the way Galloway was introduced, with Farage talking about the need to put differences aside and work together to get the right result, I had started to hope it would be a prominent Vote Leave member, and that Farage was announcing a merger of the two campaigns).
Little Lies - Fleetwood Mac
Won't get fooled again - The Who
Only EU - Yazoo (also covered by the Flying Pickets)
I'm having a hard time trying to explain the whole EU referendum gig to my 16 year old. He's an instinctive Trotskyist Labour leaner, but he actually doesn't feel the need for political union in Europe, he just wants the trade bits, and he's against mass immigration. He's confusing me!
I'm unclear as to why you're confused.
Most 16 year old lads don't give a rats arse about the EU as long as its got big tits !!
If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!
As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.
I'll do my bit for Remain.
I'm editing PB from the 1st of June until the 21st of June.
I don't think I'm going to have the energy to do any campaigning.
Though, you'll get a few thread headers with the headline "Europe - The Final Countdown"
With Or Without EU - U2 I Just Can't Get EU Out Of My Head - Kylie Minogue We Will Rock EU - Queen
I'll be campaigning for LEAVE.
I don't really care who gets official designation - GO or Vote Leave, it's the final result I'm interested in. (But did I cringe to see Galloway on stage last night?! From the way Galloway was introduced, with Farage talking about the need to put differences aside and work together to get the right result, I had started to hope it would be a prominent Vote Leave member, and that Farage was announcing a merger of the two campaigns).
If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.
I'm having a hard time trying to explain the whole EU referendum gig to my 16 year old. He's an instinctive Trotskyist Labour leaner, but he actually doesn't feel the need for political union in Europe, he just wants the trade bits, and he's against mass immigration. He's confusing me!
I'm unclear as to why you're confused.
Most 16 year old lads don't give a rats arse about the EU as long as its got big tits !!
If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.
If we try to throw our toys out he pram again, then we should not be surprised if the other EU members tell us to go and get stuffed. No-one likes a long term whinger.
Cameron has been and will continue to be labelled a liar, idiot or traitor by loud voices in the Leave campaign.
You are surely not going to suggest that he didn't lie (repeatedly) ?
The wider point is that calling DC liar etc will not go down well with the wider public. It is fact based information that is required. Abuse does not win arguments and I hope all the media presenters have been instructed to immediately stop parties talking over each other as that will turn millions off. Stephen Nolan on R5 is very good at controlling debate
If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.
If we try to throw our toys out he pram again, then we should not be surprised if the other EU members tell us to go and get stuffed. No-one likes a long term whinger.
It isn't quite the same, as treaty changes require referenda in other countries too.
LabourLeave Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
Corbyn is forced to make a statement supporting Remain because that's what his party opponents want to, and he can afford to cede ground to them on a subject of lesser importance for him. However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Cameron has been and will continue to be labelled a liar, idiot or traitor by loud voices in the Leave campaign.
You are surely not going to suggest that he didn't lie (repeatedly) ?
The wider point is that calling DC liar etc will not go down well with the wider public. It is fact based information that is required. Abuse does not win arguments and I hope all the media presenters have been instructed to immediately stop parties talking over each other as that will turn millions off. Stephen Nolan on R5 is very good at controlling debate
Cameron has been and will continue to be labelled a liar, idiot or traitor by loud voices in the Leave campaign.
You are surely not going to suggest that he didn't lie (repeatedly) ?
I would struggle to be so definitive on a subject likely to be highly emotional (which is why I have been trying to post less recently, to avoid getting worked up), and in many respects I like Cameron as a PM, so the most I would say is his case seems to me to rely on some pretty generous interpretations of past statements and current events to be considered the big win he is claiming.
Whether or not someone thinks he has lied or not, and how much, would I think be pretty relevant to the Tories not being bitterly divided on this issue though. Currently the senior figures are playing nice, but their allies in this fight will not all be so kind, and they will be persistently asked what they think about that.
I tend to think that politicians rarely directly lie, as it is not worth the risk to be caught. Obfuscation, omission and intentional misleading is much more common without technically crossing the line into a lie.
If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.
If we try to throw our toys out he pram again, then we should not be surprised if the other EU members tell us to go and get stuffed. No-one likes a long term whinger.
It isn't quite the same, as treaty changes require referenda in other countries too.
Point taken, but surely those are likely to be Yes?No, rather than "If, if that bit changes, and that bit's removed!"
If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!
But thats what I said. We should try to make the thing work by renegotiating proper blocking powers by non-Euro states. If they won't do that yet Eurozone still integrates the thing won't work and we should vote again.
Hmm, I knew the problem with Saudi society was big, but not that big:
ian bremmer @ianbremmer 6h6 hours ago Saudi Arabia 70% of population under 30 70% of labor force employed by the govt 90% of govt revenue from oil #yikes
31% of workers in Saudi Arabia are foreign workers on fixed term contracts.
If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.
If we try to throw our toys out he pram again, then we should not be surprised if the other EU members tell us to go and get stuffed. No-one likes a long term whinger.
It isn't quite the same, as treaty changes require referenda in other countries too.
Point taken, but surely those are likely to be Yes?No, rather than "If, if that bit changes, and that bit's removed!"
Yeah, I agree we wouldn't have a "renegotiation" after a treaty change. As you say, it'd be yes or no. The idea being you do the negotiation before the treaty change is finalised.
"There’s been scant mention, though, of the victims of the proposed measures. Not only does a brake on in-work benefits constitute a dramatic licence to discriminate against EU nationals – it is sexist."
If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.
That didn't happen for Fiscal Compact Treaty. Govt claimed it didn't affect us (somewhat ludicrously!) and we didn't get one. This must change.
LabourLeave Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
Corbyn is forced to make a statement supporting Remain because that's what his party opponents want to, and he can afford to cede ground to them on a subject of lesser importance for him. However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UK
Did he proclaim so from the side of his swimming pool whilst clad in skimpy speedos and reclining on his latest rug ....
carpet I mean rather than an ex OGH hairpiece ?
By the by I've always thought that Mike Smithson might consider an E-bay shop. As a political bigwig of immense standing he could flog off celebrity political hairpieces as worn by the great man.
Export orders would come flooding in, not least from across the pond. Such trade would be difficult to Trump.
Cameron has been and will continue to be labelled a liar, idiot or traitor by loud voices in the Leave campaign.
You are surely not going to suggest that he didn't lie (repeatedly) ?
The wider point is that calling DC liar etc will not go down well with the wider public. It is fact based information that is required. Abuse does not win arguments and I hope all the media presenters have been instructed to immediately stop parties talking over each other as that will turn millions off. Stephen Nolan on R5 is very good at controlling debate
Is that a yes or a no ?
I don't understand your question - I was making a general point
LabourLeave Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
Corbyn is forced to make a statement supporting Remain because that's what his party opponents want to, and he can afford to cede ground to them on a subject of lesser importance for him. However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UK
The only recent comment I've heard from someone not a political wonk on this topic is a) the negotiation was all a pantomime and b) they were sick of the EU acting like it's a country. At least one of which is a standard westminster bubble opinion, so sometimes these things are reflected in normal people.
If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this: .......................... The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
5. I will insist theat the EC keeps to the letter and spirit of the agreements made and I will ensure that all our people will work in the best interests of the UK.
That's no different from what a Remainer would say, is it?
I think we need a new PB poll on the EU ref., the last one after the previous deal a few weeks ago was 74% Leave, 26% Remain. I would like to see the numbers now, however it's Saturday so a weekend might not be the best time.
Can I make a request? I've said in the past that PB is very bad at predicting things like "size of lead" or "proportion of votes", but is acceptably good at predicting ordinal data - i.e. who will come first. A yes/no referendum is an excellent forum for testing this hypothesis.
So if you can, can you please run another poll, this time with the question "Who do you think will win: REMAIN or LEAVE?" No buggering around with percentages, just who will come first
If the Channel 4 news debate is anything to go by, Remain is going to have an extremely hard time defending its position with the public.
Nicky Morgan and Laura Sandys were really struggling.
Then again, independence, freedom, democracy and self-determination are pretty hard to argue against.
Sandys talked about the British people as if they were errant teenagers who had asked to go with their mates to Ibiza. Just dreadful.
I think this website shows the people most informed about politics have swung behind Leave. Question is whether Govt can frame the issue away from facts of the matter for the less interested.
If the Channel 4 news debate is anything to go by, Remain is going to have an extremely hard time defending its position with the public.
Nicky Morgan and Laura Sandys were really struggling.
Then again, independence, freedom, democracy and self-determination are pretty hard to argue against.
Sandys talked about the British people as if they were errant teenagers who had asked to go with their mates to Ibiza. Just dreadful.
I think this website shows the people most informed about politics have swung behind Leave. Question is whether Govt can frame the issue away from facts of the matter for the less interested.
This may not be a Tory echo chamber, notwithstanding the views of some to that effect, but in terms of vocal commentary it is Tory heavy, so if it reflects anything, which I doubt, it would be politically obsessed Tories, by and large, are swinging behind Leave. Maybe.
Cameron has been and will continue to be labelled a liar, idiot or traitor by loud voices in the Leave campaign.
You are surely not going to suggest that he didn't lie (repeatedly) ?
The wider point is that calling DC liar etc will not go down well with the wider public. It is fact based information that is required. Abuse does not win arguments and I hope all the media presenters have been instructed to immediately stop parties talking over each other as that will turn millions off. Stephen Nolan on R5 is very good at controlling debate
Is that a yes or a no ?
I don't understand your question - I was making a general point
I asked you if he had lied and you hand-waved a lot and didn't answer the question.
Incidentally, because the Child Benefit is now indexed to cost of living that means we will have to pay MORE than British Families get to EU workers from Ireland, Norway and Switzerland.
LabourLeave Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
Corbyn is forced to make a statement supporting Remain because that's what his party opponents want to, and he can afford to cede ground to them on a subject of lesser importance for him. However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UK
The only recent comment I've heard from someone not a political wonk on this topic is a) the negotiation was all a pantomime and b) they were sick of the EU acting like it's a country. At least one of which is a standard westminster bubble opinion, so sometimes these things are reflected in normal people.
Oh, anecdote alert I guess.
I am sure you are right in some instances but for leave to gain traction they need to have a narrative of how trade would work outside the EU, how they can stop free movement of labour, and how long trade deals would take to supercede existing EU deals. It also occurred to me today how would we get over the E111 Europe wide health scheme if we had to deal with each country. Many genuine questions needing genuine and honest answers. The IFS seems to be well respected on economic matters and any imput they could make could be very valuable
If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.
That didn't happen for Fiscal Compact Treaty. Govt claimed it didn't affect us (somewhat ludicrously!) and we didn't get one. This must change.
Did that amend the Communities bill? I think that is the threshold.
LabourLeave Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UK
The only recent comment I've heard from someone not a political wonk on this topic is a) the negotiation was all a pantomime and b) they were sick of the EU acting like it's a country. At least one of which is a standard westminster bubble opinion, so sometimes these things are reflected in normal people.
Oh, anecdote alert I guess.
I am sure you are right in some instances but for leave to gain traction they need to have a narrative of how trade would work outside the EU, how they can stop free movement of labour, and how long trade deals would take to supercede existing EU deals. It also occurred to me today how would we get over the E111 Europe wide health scheme if we had to deal with each country. Many genuine questions needing genuine and honest answers. The IFS seems to be well respected on economic matters and any imput they could make could be very valuable
The question LEAVE has to answer first is which LEAVE are they talking about. The rather rehearsed answer that the EU "must" allow us into the Single Market is just plain hopeful.
Why should the other 27 allow Britain into the Finance sector ? Would France and Germany play ball. ? Manufacturing could be different. After all the EU has more to gain there.
LabourLeave Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
Corbyn is forced to make a statement supporting Remain because that's what his party opponents want to, and he can afford to cede ground to them on a subject of lesser importance for him. However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UK
The only recent comment I've heard from someone not a political wonk on this topic is a) the negotiation was all a pantomime and b) they were sick of the EU acting like it's a country. At least one of which is a standard westminster bubble opinion, so sometimes these things are reflected in normal people.
Oh, anecdote alert I guess.
I am sure you are right in some instances but for leave to gain traction they need to have a narrative of how trade would work outside the EU, how they can stop free movement of labour, and how long trade deals would take to supercede existing EU deals. It also occurred to me today how would we get over the E111 Europe wide health scheme if we had to deal with each country. Many genuine questions needing genuine and honest answers. The IFS seems to be well respected on economic matters and any imput they could make could be very valuable
Isn't EHIC (as it now is) an EEA thing rather than an EU thing?
Bloody Leavers bringing up WW2 when it they should be bringing up WW1.
Tom Watson 4 hrs · Twitter · And one hundred years on from the battle of the Somme,why would we want to loosen the ties that bind us?I'm proud of what has been achieved.
LabourLeave Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UK
The only recent comment I've heard from someone not a political wonk on this topic is a) the negotiation was all a pantomime and b) they were sick of the EU acting like it's a country. At least one of which is a standard westminster bubble opinion, so sometimes these things are reflected in normal people.
Oh, anecdote alert I guess.
I am sure you e could be very valuable
The question LEAVE has to answer first is which LEAVE are they talking about. The rather rehearsed answer that the EU "must" allow us into the Single Market is just plain hopeful.
Why should the other 27 allow Britain into the Finance sector ? Would France and Germany play ball. ? Manufacturing could be different. After all the EU has more to gain there.
Right so we'd get nothing on finance from them but we'd concede everything on manufacturing.
If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.
That didn't happen for Fiscal Compact Treaty. Govt claimed it didn't affect us (somewhat ludicrously!) and we didn't get one. This must change.
Did that amend the Communities bill? I think that is the threshold.
Ah, I misread the wiki page. That is not the case.
Sirish Kulkami @skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.
That didn't happen for Fiscal Compact Treaty. Govt claimed it didn't affect us (somewhat ludicrously!) and we didn't get one. This must change.
Did that amend the Communities bill? I think that is the threshold.
We didn't get one of surrendering competencies of Police and Justice (European Arrest Warrent et al) either because "opting-in" and similar "orders given in council" are excluded, ministers can opt us in to whatever they want without asking parliament or the voters. Once opted-in they come under the jurisdiction of the ECJ and its impossible to opt-out again.
We wont get a vote on an accession treaty regardless of what it contains (it is specifically excluded). Laws and orders that renew or extend existing measures are excluded, and the definition of extend is very broadly drawn. The referendum-lock law was carefully crafted not to get triggered when it matters.
In any case, the EU doesn't actually need any new treaties since Lisbon has self-amending clauses.
If Remain wins how does a Leave leadership candidate answer the question, "If you win, will you in fact leave?"
There seem to be four possible answers to this:
1. No, I backed Leave but Remain won. The issue is now closed for a generation.
2. Not immediately, but I will hold another referendum in a few years.
3. I will hold another referendum as soon as it looks winnable.
4. I will immediately leave the EU without a referendum.
4 is obviously out of the question if Remain has just won.
1 is probably the answer most voters would accept but surely makes the candidate no better than a Remainer.
Surely one has to answer 2 or 3 and of those, 2 will be seen as the deceptive never-really-do-it option. So there will be pressure to answer 3 as candidates will seek to outbid each other. Some may even talk about 4.
One of the candidates will become leader and will be under constant pressure to get a move on and hold another referendum.
The voters, meanwhile, will be thinking that the whole thing is settled.
The right answer is "If the Eurozone integrates we have another negotiation to get proper protection for non-Euro members. If we don't get it, we have another referendum and I campaign for Leave"
For ..... sake. How many f+++++ referenda do you want? If we vote REMAIN now, that should be it, and we should ensure we're represented by people who want to make the thing work, not whinge all the time. And draw massive expenses while doing it!
Treaty changes invoke a referendum as per the EU Act 2011.
That didn't happen for Fiscal Compact Treaty. Govt claimed it didn't affect us (somewhat ludicrously!) and we didn't get one. This must change.
Did that amend the Communities bill? I think that is the threshold.
It gets triggered if and only if competences are transferred. A treaty change is necessary but *not* sufficient. Minor changes to the treaty occur (from memory) about every 18 months. If treaty changes alone were sufficient to trigger a referendum, we'd've known it by now.
We were not signatories to the Fiscal Compact treaty so no trigger.
If the Channel 4 news debate is anything to go by, Remain is going to have an extremely hard time defending its position with the public.
Nicky Morgan and Laura Sandys were really struggling.
Then again, independence, freedom, democracy and self-determination are pretty hard to argue against.
Sandys talked about the British people as if they were errant teenagers who had asked to go with their mates to Ibiza. Just dreadful.
Cameron is too FRIT to debate with Farage - Osborne is too FRIT to consider the UK out of the EU - he's crying for his mummy to comfort him. (Where is he today?)
Bloody Leavers bringing up WW2 when it they should be bringing up WW1.
Tom Watson 4 hrs · Twitter · And one hundred years on from the battle of the Somme,why would we want to loosen the ties that bind us?I'm proud of what has been achieved.
Stay classy Tom.
How many years since the victory of the Seventh Coalition? Both victories to prevent a European superstate. Not sure what Tom's point is
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.
Corbyn might believe the people he represents - trade unions, public sector workers and the like - enjoy better legal protection through membership of the EU than they would being left at the tender mercies of a majority Conservative Government which basically wants to sack them and sell them into slavery (or perhaps the other way round).
The most compelling argument for REMAIN I've heard today was from a mother whose son had a rare disease which couldn't be treated in the UK but the expertise to treat it existed in France. As a citizen of the EU, the son got the treatment he needed in France free, survived and has become a healthy adult.
That's not a reason to change your vote - the E111 arrangements could be replicated on a bi-lateral basis assuming the other EU countries were willing.
At the moment, both sides are busy finding their baselines and it will be baseline tennis for the next few weeks as each plays its strongest cards ad infinitum.
LabourLeave Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UK
The only recent comment I've heard from someone not a political wonk on this topic is a) the negotiation was all a pantomime and b) they were sick of the EU acting like it's a country. At least one of which is a standard westminster bubble opinion, so sometimes these things are reflected in normal people.
Oh, anecdote alert I guess.
take to supercede existing EU deals. It also occurred to me today how would we get over the E111 Europe wide health scheme if we had to deal with each country. Many genuine questions needing genuine and honest answers. The IFS seems to be well respected on economic matters and any imput they could make could be very valuable
The question LEAVE has to answer first is which LEAVE are they talking about. The rather rehearsed answer that the EU "must" allow us into the Single Market is just plain hopeful.
Why should the other 27 allow Britain into the Finance sector ? Would France and Germany play ball. ? Manufacturing could be different. After all the EU has more to gain there.
Which is why its a negotiation. They get manufacturing and we get finance. Anyway, our dollar finance sector is thriving despite active efforts by US authorities to kill it.
If the Channel 4 news debate is anything to go by, Remain is going to have an extremely hard time defending its position with the public.
Nicky Morgan and Laura Sandys were really struggling.
Then again, independence, freedom, democracy and self-determination are pretty hard to argue against.
Sandys talked about the British people as if they were errant teenagers who had asked to go with their mates to Ibiza. Just dreadful.
I think this website shows the people most informed about politics have swung behind Leave. Question is whether Govt can frame the issue away from facts of the matter for the less interested.
This may not be a Tory echo chamber, notwithstanding the views of some to that effect, but in terms of vocal commentary it is Tory heavy, so if it reflects anything, which I doubt, it would be politically obsessed Tories, by and large, are swinging behind Leave. Maybe.
Danny, Sandy and myself are all lefties supporting Leave. I think there are others too.
The question LEAVE has to answer first is which LEAVE are they talking about. The rather rehearsed answer that the EU "must" allow us into the Single Market is just plain hopeful.
Why should the other 27 allow Britain into the Finance sector ? Would France and Germany play ball. ? Manufacturing could be different. After all the EU has more to gain there.
OMG I guess we really do have to rehearse this every other day. LEAVE don't get to chose, the government of the day decide how to implement a LEAVE vote. The Leave campaign can think of any solution they want, and half a dozen including some very detailed ones have been posted here in the last few days. It is not of the slightest relevance, because the government will do what it wants to do, not what the Leave campaign wants it to do.
Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
Unless there is a monumental victory for Remain, I think your analysis is correct: the party will want an Out-ter.
But I think it needs to be someone who can bring the party back together again. It cannot be someone divisive.
But, and this seems to be under-rated, they have to be an instantly credible Prime Minister. No party membership has ever directly elected a PM before. If an Outer, this limits the field to Gove and (at a stretch) Patel, unless Boris goes Leave.
There are more and they will get an opportunity to fly or sink.
The post-referendum Cabinet reshuffle will be fascinating; assuming a Remain win of 55-60% what number of Outers does Cameron appoint? 8? Which ones? (One presumes Grayling is a goner, IDS too perhaps).
I think that the next leader will need to have been in one of the top 7-8 non-PM Cabinet jobs; CoE, FS, HS, Justice, Education, Health, Defence, Business at a push - so if they're not there already they'll need to be reshuffled in.
Sirish Kulkami @skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.
I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).
I have been trying to establish which of wilson’s cabinet in 1975 wanted to leave the EEC in the Referendum. I think they were: Benn – Industry Castle – Health and Social Services Foot – Employment Shore – Trade Varley – Energy Ross – Scotland Silkin – Planning and Local government
Hmm, I knew the problem with Saudi society was big, but not that big:
ian bremmer @ianbremmer 6h6 hours ago Saudi Arabia 70% of population under 30 70% of labor force employed by the govt 90% of govt revenue from oil #yikes
31% of workers in Saudi Arabia are foreign workers on fixed term contracts.
There was an article in the Berlingske Tidence (Danish equivalent of The Times) this week reporting that ship hijacking off Somalia had died down, because oil prices were so low that the hijackers couldn't be bothered with it, and were switching to other nefarious activities.
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.
Corbyn might believe the people he represents - trade unions, public sector workers and the like - enjoy better legal protection through membership of the EU than they would being left at the tender mercies of a majority Conservative Government which basically wants to sack them and sell them into slavery (or perhaps the other way round).
The most compelling argument for REMAIN I've heard today was from a mother whose son had a rare disease which couldn't be treated in the UK but the expertise to treat it existed in France. As a citizen of the EU, the son got the treatment he needed in France free, survived and has become a healthy adult.
That's not a reason to change your vote - the E111 arrangements could be replicated on a bi-lateral basis assuming the other EU countries were willing.
At the moment, both sides are busy finding their baselines and it will be baseline tennis for the next few weeks as each plays its strongest cards ad infinitum.
Without being funny, but that is a total edge case. Like the kid whose parents "kidnapped" him and took him to have proton therapy elsewhere in the EU. I would suggest that the occurrences of this kind of thing every year are in the 10s.
I don't think it is a good reason for or against.
It is even more "edge" can the issue of child benefits.
The real core of the issue is do we think we are better off in the current trading block, with all the downsides of the current 27 state political union vs taking the risk to come out and negotiate a different deal with no guarantees of anything but no political union.
A bit of caution with Nevada, Las Vegas has 70% of delegates, whoever wins it will get a very loopsided result, remember the Dems are reporting only delegates not votes.
Reno has 15%, and the rest are the desert ghost towns.
A bit of caution with Nevada, Las Vegas has 70% of delegates, whoever wins it will get a very loopsided result, remember the Dems are reporting only delegates not votes.
Reno has 15%, and the rest are the desert ghost towns.
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.
Corbyn might believe the people he represents - trade unions, public sector workers and the like - enjoy better legal protection through membership of the EU than they would being left at the tender mercies of a majority Conservative Government which basically wants to sack them and sell them into slavery (or perhaps the other way round).
Even the unions aren't that stupid (as one of the big unions coming out for Leave on Monday supposedly will show). TTIP is the pinnacle of Corporatist nonsense, and Labour is busy trying to get it as fast as they can. The Rail Directive will also kill off any future privatisation of the Railways, another leftie shibboleth.
Leaving aside the minor detail that if the electoral vote for a Tory government who stand on a manifesto of eating babies, that's democracy for you. Tories had to put up with Blair/Brown, lefties have to put up with Cameron, taking one, and then trying to hide behind Brussels for th other isn't really playing fair.
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace Osborne
GOWNBPM
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.
If Remain wins Osborne will succeed Cameron with Javid as Chancellor
If remain wins Dave stays on until 2019.
Tories look at Osborne and then say he's fking unelectable and choose someone else.
They are not going to choose Gove or IDS
I've not for one moment suggested they will.
They will in all likelihood do what they have done before and chose an unknown rather than the front runners.
Furthermore since the Cameroons have now held the reins since 2007, they are more likely imo to decide on a changing of the guard. It will be 13 years by 2020.
In opposition the Tories pick an unknown, in office the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary and Osborne will not willingly give up the leadership to Liam Fox, Chris Grayling or Priti Patel and certainly not if it is Remain
A bit of caution with Nevada, Las Vegas has 70% of delegates, whoever wins it will get a very loopsided result, remember the Dems are reporting only delegates not votes.
Reno has 15%, and the rest are the desert ghost towns.
Michael Owen levels of analysis on CNN 'If Bernie Sanders has enthused people to come and caucus for him that can only be good for Sanders.' Gee you think?
Sirish Kulkami @skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.
I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).
PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.
As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.
I'm signed up to do deliveries for REMAIN. I'll do canvassing and GOTV as well.
I have signed up for Britain Stronger in Europe today and will likely at least do some leafletting
Sirish Kulkami @skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.
I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).
PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.
Hmm, I knew the problem with Saudi society was big, but not that big:
ian bremmer @ianbremmer 6h6 hours ago Saudi Arabia 70% of population under 30 70% of labor force employed by the govt 90% of govt revenue from oil #yikes
31% of workers in Saudi Arabia are foreign workers on fixed term contracts.
There was an article in the Berlingske Tidence (Danish equivalent of The Times) this week reporting that ship hijacking off Somalia had died down, because oil prices were so low that the hijackers couldn't be bothered with it, and were switching to other nefarious activities.
Even the unions aren't that stupid (as one of the big unions coming out for Leave on Monday supposedly will show). TTIP is the pinnacle of Corporatist nonsense, and Labour is busy trying to get it as fast as they can. The Rail Directive will also kill off any future privatisation of the Railways, another leftie shibboleth.
There's a lot wrong with TTIP and I don't think Labour supports it contrary to your view. Do Conservatives support all aspects of TTIP ? I would suspect not.
As for the Rail Directive, the funny thing is it's a Conservative Mayor of London trying to take over private rail franchises and effectively re-nationalise them under the publicly-funded Transport for London so once the Conservatives sort out their own line on rail privatisation, we'll be a bit further forward.
Sirish Kulkami @skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.
I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).
PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.
Around 65% voted in the 1975 EEC referendum and turnout should easily match that, this is likely to be a far closer and far more passionate campaign!
Michael Owen levels of analysis on CNN 'If Bernie Sanders has enthused people to come and caucus for him that can only be good for Sanders.' Gee you think?
If the Channel 4 news debate is anything to go by, Remain is going to have an extremely hard time defending its position with the public.
Nicky Morgan and Laura Sandys were really struggling.
Then again, independence, freedom, democracy and self-determination are pretty hard to argue against.
Sandys talked about the British people as if they were errant teenagers who had asked to go with their mates to Ibiza. Just dreadful.
I think this website shows the people most informed about politics have swung behind Leave. Question is whether Govt can frame the issue away from facts of the matter for the less interested.
This may not be a Tory echo chamber, notwithstanding the views of some to that effect, but in terms of vocal commentary it is Tory heavy, so if it reflects anything, which I doubt, it would be politically obsessed Tories, by and large, are swinging behind Leave. Maybe.
Danny, Sandy and myself are all lefties supporting Leave. I think there are others too.
LabourLeave Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH
However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.
Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UK
The only recent comment I've heard from someone not a political wonk on this topic is a) the negotiation was all a pantomime and b) they were sick of the EU acting like it's a country. At least one of which is a standard westminster bubble opinion, so sometimes these things are reflected in normal people.
Oh, anecdote alert I guess.
I am sure you e could be very valuable
The question LEAVE has to answer first is which LEAVE are they talking about. The rather rehearsed answer that the EU "must" allow us into the Single Market is just plain hopeful.
Why should the other 27 allow Britain into the Finance sector ? Would France and Germany play ball. ? Manufacturing could be different. After all the EU has more to gain there.
Right so we'd get nothing on finance from them but we'd concede everything on manufacturing.
Sirish Kulkami @skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.
I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).
PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.
Around 65% voted in the 1975 EEC referendum and turnout should easily match that, this is likely to be a far closer and far more passionate campaign!
Turnouts generally have fallen heavily since the EEC referendum.
General election turnout in the 15 years before that Referendum was about 76%, so 11% higher than the EEC turnout. Meanwhile, turnout 2001-2016 in general elections has been 63%, which if the same pattern is repeated indicates a 52% turnout for this referendum.
Sirish Kulkami @skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.
I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).
PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.
Around 65% voted in the 1975 EEC referendum and turnout should easily match that, this is likely to be a far closer and far more passionate campaign!
That's quite an asumption - in 1974, 78.8% turned out for the general election. 2015, 66.1%.
Sirish Kulkami @skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.
I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).
PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.
Around 65% voted in the 1975 EEC referendum and turnout should easily match that, this is likely to be a far closer and far more passionate campaign!
That was 65% in a decade when GEs attracted 72-78% turnout. Somewhere in the 50%s looks more reasonable today.
As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.
I'm signed up to do deliveries for REMAIN. I'll do canvassing and GOTV as well.
I have signed up for Britain Stronger in Europe today and will likely at least do some leafletting
Indigo stated that "Incidentally, because the Child Benefit is now indexed to cost of living that means we will have to pay MORE than British Families get to EU workers from Ireland, Norway and Switzerland."
And the rest of Western Europe and Scandinavia bar Portugal and possibly Spain. The UK is the poor man of Western Europe - it is one of the financially incontinent "Piggies".
It is now clear that only political misfits are supporting the Leave campaign. The vast majority of leading politicians and business leaders, together with other members of the "great and good", are now declaring their hand in favour of Remain, in the same way that most of the establishment was in favour of appeasement in the 1930s. I expect a 60:40 majority (or thereabouts) in favour of Remain.
The trend to ever closer union under the direction of the Reichskanzler(in) will continue. Germany will have achieved her aim of a Großdeutsches Reich without WW3. Merkel was the eminence grise at the recent summit who cajoled everyone, with the aid of her Polish and Letzeburgesch lackeys (Tusk and Juncker) into ensuring that DC could save face with this petty deal.
Comments
Who imports the most from whom? The Largest Source Of Imports By Country https://t.co/qDnmvQRKEn https://t.co/CLx4rjREtu
ian bremmer @ianbremmer 6h6 hours ago
Saudi Arabia
70% of population under 30
70% of labor force employed by the govt
90% of govt revenue from oil
#yikes
Edit: Confirmed on her blog.
Most 16 year old lads don't give a rats arse about the EU as long as its got big tits !!
Theres Martin Schulz for a start.
No-one likes a long term whinger.
carpet I mean rather than an ex OGH hairpiece ?
Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.
Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.
Whether or not someone thinks he has lied or not, and how much, would I think be pretty relevant to the Tories not being bitterly divided on this issue though. Currently the senior figures are playing nice, but their allies in this fight will not all be so kind, and they will be persistently asked what they think about that.
I tend to think that politicians rarely directly lie, as it is not worth the risk to be caught. Obfuscation, omission and intentional misleading is much more common without technically crossing the line into a lie.
The Tele are perhaps slowy learning that it's best to limit how long their twattish dishonesty is exposed to public view.
https://theconversation.com/why-the-eu-emergency-brake-on-migrant-benefits-is-sexist-54195?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EU special - 4341&utm_content=EU special - 4341+CID_631ea81d27e3f9f4b0c34b5233681544&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=Why the EU emergency brake on migrant benefits is sexist
"There’s been scant mention, though, of the victims of the proposed measures. Not only does a brake on in-work benefits constitute a dramatic licence to discriminate against EU nationals – it is sexist."
Nicky Morgan and Laura Sandys were really struggling.
Then again, independence, freedom, democracy and self-determination are pretty hard to argue against.
Sandys talked about the British people as if they were errant teenagers who had asked to go with their mates to Ibiza. Just dreadful.
Export orders would come flooding in, not least from across the pond. Such trade would be difficult to Trump.
Oh, anecdote alert I guess.
So if you can, can you please run another poll, this time with the question "Who do you think will win: REMAIN or LEAVE?" No buggering around with percentages, just who will come first
Let me give you a few of helpful pointers:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/6961675/David-Cameron-net-immigration-will-be-capped-at-tens-of-thousands.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2534058/I-stop-child-benefit-exported-Poland-rest-EU-Cameron-vows-sets-powers-wants-claw-Brussels.html
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/eu-speech-at-bloomberg
Incidentally, because the Child Benefit is now indexed to cost of living that means we will have to pay MORE than British Families get to EU workers from Ireland, Norway and Switzerland.
Why should the other 27 allow Britain into the Finance sector ? Would France and Germany play ball. ? Manufacturing could be different. After all the EU has more to gain there.
Tom Watson
4 hrs ·
Twitter
·
And one hundred years on from the battle of the Somme,why would we want to loosen the ties that bind us?I'm proud of what has been achieved.
Stay classy Tom.
And you claim to be an MD ?
Sirish Kulkami
@skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.
We wont get a vote on an accession treaty regardless of what it contains (it is specifically excluded). Laws and orders that renew or extend existing measures are excluded, and the definition of extend is very broadly drawn. The referendum-lock law was carefully crafted not to get triggered when it matters.
In any case, the EU doesn't actually need any new treaties since Lisbon has self-amending clauses.
We were not signatories to the Fiscal Compact treaty so no trigger.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_county/NV_Page_0220.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_state/NV_Page_0220.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
The most compelling argument for REMAIN I've heard today was from a mother whose son had a rare disease which couldn't be treated in the UK but the expertise to treat it existed in France. As a citizen of the EU, the son got the treatment he needed in France free, survived and has become a healthy adult.
That's not a reason to change your vote - the E111 arrangements could be replicated on a bi-lateral basis assuming the other EU countries were willing.
At the moment, both sides are busy finding their baselines and it will be baseline tennis for the next few weeks as each plays its strongest cards ad infinitum.
Benn – Industry
Castle – Health and Social Services
Foot – Employment
Shore – Trade
Varley – Energy
Ross – Scotland
Silkin – Planning and Local government
Can someone confirm or correct.
I don't think it is a good reason for or against.
It is even more "edge" can the issue of child benefits.
The real core of the issue is do we think we are better off in the current trading block, with all the downsides of the current 27 state political union vs taking the risk to come out and negotiate a different deal with no guarantees of anything but no political union.
Reno has 15%, and the rest are the desert ghost towns.
Leaving aside the minor detail that if the electoral vote for a Tory government who stand on a manifesto of eating babies, that's democracy for you. Tories had to put up with Blair/Brown, lefties have to put up with Cameron, taking one, and then trying to hide behind Brussels for th other isn't really playing fair.
If Sanders and Clinton were on course for a tie in the national vote, Clinton would win Nevada by 3%, according to this:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanderss-path-to-the-nomination/
He obviously hasn't heard that there are things called photocopiers or wonders who might be about when the fax pops out the other end....
As for the Rail Directive, the funny thing is it's a Conservative Mayor of London trying to take over private rail franchises and effectively re-nationalise them under the publicly-funded Transport for London so once the Conservatives sort out their own line on rail privatisation, we'll be a bit further forward.
General election turnout in the 15 years before that Referendum was about 76%, so 11% higher than the EEC turnout. Meanwhile, turnout 2001-2016 in general elections has been 63%, which if the same pattern is repeated indicates a 52% turnout for this referendum.
(I'll get my coat...)
Other outcomes might take longer.
And the rest of Western Europe and Scandinavia bar Portugal and possibly Spain. The UK is the poor man of Western Europe - it is one of the financially incontinent "Piggies".
It is now clear that only political misfits are supporting the Leave campaign. The vast majority of leading politicians and business leaders, together with other members of the "great and good", are now declaring their hand in favour of Remain, in the same way that most of the establishment was in favour of appeasement in the 1930s. I expect a 60:40 majority (or thereabouts) in favour of Remain.
The trend to ever closer union under the direction of the Reichskanzler(in) will continue. Germany will have achieved her aim of a Großdeutsches Reich without WW3. Merkel was the eminence grise at the recent summit who cajoled everyone, with the aid of her Polish and Letzeburgesch lackeys (Tusk and Juncker) into ensuring that DC could save face with this petty deal.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/NV/Dem