politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So it’s on. In just four months Britain will vote whether t

Richard_Tyndall said:

david_herdson said:

viewcode said:

Yorkcity said:

Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ?
I know this has happened in the EU before.

For that to happen, the Prime Minister would have to refuse to initiate the leave process[1] and sit on his hands whilst simultaneously restarting negotiations with 27 other countries. If he tried that, the Conservative party would remove him as Prime Minister.

So no, basically.

I now refer you to other posters who will insist that this can be handwaviumed away because reasons.


[1] either by utilising the exit procedure as specified in Lisbon, or by repealing the relevantUK act

It'd be via Article 50. To go down any unilateral route would severely prejudice talks on EEA entry or a bilateral trade deal.

Yep. Anything other than article 50 puts us in direct breach of our treaty obligations. Something we work very hard not to do for fairly obvious reasons.

isam said:

david_herdson said:

isam said:

One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what

So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner

If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)

On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose

But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two

LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse

For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?

The same!

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Does anyone have the relevant excerpt for the non-EMU protections to hand? I'm seriously hung over and don't want to comb through pages of bullshit to find it!

Still hung over at 4pm! I'm impressed

rottenborough said:

Philip Hammond ‏@PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out

Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.

There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. F, must admit, that's a bit of a blind spot for me. The Social War was before the Catiline Conspiracy, and after the Jugurthine War, right?

AlastairMeeks said:

Alanbrooke said:

MarqueeMark said:

Alanbrooke said:

LOL

just listening to Cameron's speech. He's really laying on the scare the voters theme

Surprised he didn't go the whole hog and wear a Ghostface mask....

The more bizarre bit is his repeated claim of a reformed EU. He's reformed nothing but sounds as if he believes his own propaganda.

When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.

another_richard said:

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Viceroy, indeed. Not only that, but he's thrown away leverage, so even if we get someone with some backbone, they'll have a much harder time of it.

Unless Cameron's still there in 2020, and Labour's led by Corbyn, I'm not sure I'll vote Conservative again whilst he's leader.

Since you like classical allusions, the fight over the EU on the right is like the Social War between the Romans and the Italian Allies.

Do you mean the Roman establishment won the war but had to give the despised provincials the thing they wanted in any case ?

Indigo said:

rottenborough said:

Philip Hammond ‏@PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out

Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.

There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.

Perhaps not the smartest time to be dropping to 600 constituencies and causing lots of reselections to happen, a number of Constituency Associations are going to be deeply pissed off with their candidate who suddenly turned out to be a careerist and not a eurosceptic. The CAs were all ready pissed off with Cameron for telling their MP to ignore the association. The results might be unfortunate.. or even regrettable

If there are 100+ Leave Tory MPs one wonders how many letters are being written to the 1922 tonight

Yorkcity said:

david_herdson said:

"A big problem for Cameron was seen in this morning’s newspapers. generally the Tory press is hostile and wants Britain to leave. This means that effectively the campaign could be Cameron vs the Tory press – the same media that played such a part in getting him elected last May."

That is indeed a problem, although it was noticeable and notable that The Sun didn't have a splash front page kicking Cameron's backside.

All the same, Cameron is going to spend a lot of time these next few months alongside Lib Dems, Labour, Greens and SNP politicians, while many of his activists, members, MPs and cabinet campaign, as well as - as you rightly say - the Tory-supporting media go against him.

Good job he doesn't really need that media again!

David I can not believe any Labour politicians with ambitions of leadership will share any platform with Cameron during this period.
They will not as before be travelling up to Scotland on the same day to save the Union, they now know how that one played out.
Cameron Blair Straw Blunkett Mandelson maybe.
All new Labour together as that is what Cameron and Osborne are new Labour disciples.

Sean_F said:

another_richard said:

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Viceroy, indeed. Not only that, but he's thrown away leverage, so even if we get someone with some backbone, they'll have a much harder time of it.

Unless Cameron's still there in 2020, and Labour's led by Corbyn, I'm not sure I'll vote Conservative again whilst he's leader.

Since you like classical allusions, the fight over the EU on the right is like the Social War between the Romans and the Italian Allies.

Do you mean the Roman establishment won the war but had to give the despised provincials the thing they wanted in any case ?

That's a good point.

I was thinking more of equally-matched adversaries who'd vanquished all potential rivals going to war with each other.

runnymede said:

'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'

That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?

'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'

Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though

'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'

old_labour said:

NATO warns Turkey it can't count on support in a conflict with Russia as tensions escalate

European diplomats warned that Ankara cannot invoke Article 5
Germany says that NATO cannot 'pay the price for a war started by Turks'
Turkey has called for international ground operation in Syria
Russia called Security Council meeting to halt Turkey's shelling of Kurds

rcs1000 said:

Speedy: what time do we get the results of the Nevada Democrat caucuses and the SC Republican primary?

HYUFD said:

Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave

david_herdson said:

isam said:

david_herdson said:

isam said:

One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what

So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner

If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)

On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose

But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two

LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse

For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?

The same!

I meant is it better or worse value than Leave!!

HYUFD said:

BBC reporting the DUP will back Leave which will boost the Out campaign in Northern Ireland

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Alanbrooke said:

MarqueeMark said:

Alanbrooke said:

LOL

just listening to Cameron's speech. He's really laying on the scare the voters theme

Surprised he didn't go the whole hog and wear a Ghostface mask....

The more bizarre bit is his repeated claim of a reformed EU. He's reformed nothing but sounds as if he believes his own propaganda.

When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.

yes its back to politics is show biz for ugly people.

Don't miss the morning thread. You're going to love it.

Is it "Tory party splits as Osborne is outed as spawn of Jimmy Saville"?

AlastairMeeks said:

runnymede said:

'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'

That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?

'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'

Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though

'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'

Leavers sure do love their Nazi references.

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Alanbrooke said:

MarqueeMark said:

Alanbrooke said:

LOL

just listening to Cameron's speech. He's really laying on the scare the voters theme

Surprised he didn't go the whole hog and wear a Ghostface mask....

The more bizarre bit is his repeated claim of a reformed EU. He's reformed nothing but sounds as if he believes his own propaganda.

When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.

yes its back to politics is show biz for ugly people.

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

BBC reporting the DUP will back Leave which will boost the Out campaign in Northern Ireland

I expect that in the end, a very large majority of Unionists will vote Leave.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave

The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Alanbrooke said:

MarqueeMark said:

Alanbrooke said:

LOL

just listening to Cameron's speech. He's really laying on the scare the voters theme

Surprised he didn't go the whole hog and wear a Ghostface mask....

The more bizarre bit is his repeated claim of a reformed EU. He's reformed nothing but sounds as if he believes his own propaganda.

When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.

yes its back to politics is show biz for ugly people.

Don't miss the morning thread. You're going to love it.

Is it "Tory party splits as Osborne is outed as spawn of Jimmy Saville"?

Well I'm gushing in praise of Osborne in this piece but the conclusion may surprise you.

I suspect your gushing maybe be premature and could damage your keyboard.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Alanbrooke said:

MarqueeMark said:

Alanbrooke said:

LOL

just listening to Cameron's speech. He's really laying on the scare the voters theme

Surprised he didn't go the whole hog and wear a Ghostface mask....

The more bizarre bit is his repeated claim of a reformed EU. He's reformed nothing but sounds as if he believes his own propaganda.

When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.

yes its back to politics is show biz for ugly people.

Don't miss the morning thread. You're going to love it.

Is it "Tory party splits as Osborne is outed as spawn of Jimmy Saville"?

Well I'm gushing in praise of Osborne in this piece but the conclusion may surprise you.

I suspect your gushing maybe be premature and could damage your keyboard.

When you read it, remember I did this thread for you.

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave

The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"

There is no way on earth the Sun will back Remain while Murdoch owns it, he despises the EU, after all the Sun backed Yes in Scotland and lost

SeanT said:

rottenborough said:

Philip Hammond ‏@PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out

Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.

There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.

Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

CBS South Carolina GOP Final

Trump 42%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 9%
Bush 6%
Carson 6%

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-south-carolina-still-solidly-for-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

That's the old one.

If Google Trends is right Trump is battling for third place with Kasich.

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

CBS South Carolina GOP Final

Trump 42%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 9%
Bush 6%
Carson 6%

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-south-carolina-still-solidly-for-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

That's the old one.

If Google Trends is right Trump is battling for third place with Kasich.

richardDodd said:

ST calling someone spineless.. hilarious.. ST ..also known as old jelly knees

SeanT said:

isam said:

SeanT said:

rottenborough said:

Philip Hammond ‏@PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out

Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.

There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.

Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,

I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc

Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.

Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.

I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.

Indigo said:

old_labour said:

NATO warns Turkey it can't count on support in a conflict with Russia as tensions escalate

European diplomats warned that Ankara cannot invoke Article 5
Germany says that NATO cannot 'pay the price for a war started by Turks'
Turkey has called for international ground operation in Syria
Russia called Security Council meeting to halt Turkey's shelling of Kurds

If Turkey gets into even a moderate shooting war with Russia the refugee movements will make Syria look like a tea party, not to mention that Turkey will also lose all interest in stopping the existing flows, especially if the EU refuses to help.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave

The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"

There is no way on earth the Sun will back Remain while Murdoch owns it, he despises the EU, after all the Sun backed Yes in Scotland and lost

They can say: with reluctance, and although there is much that is wrong with the EU, it is for Leave to make the case. The Sun, therefore, recommends - with a heavy heart - that we stay in.

But he'll only do it if:
(a) Remain is going to win anyway
and
(b) He's got assurances from the EU that they won't block the creation of Sky Europe

Richard_Tyndall said:

perdix said:

runnymede said:

'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'

That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?

'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'

Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though

'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'

Accusing Cameron and Co of telling lies requires some proof of you statement. If that's all that Leavers can say they will lose. Posted by a possible Leaver.

Not quite sure how someone deals with this. Cameron has made a series of Statements today which are directly contradicted by the document he has agreed. I assume that he has actually read and understood the document so he must know that what he is saying is not born out by the facts. How would you define that?

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

isam said:

SeanT said:

rottenborough said:

Philip Hammond ‏@PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out

Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.

There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.

Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,

I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc

Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.

Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.

I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.

The danger for the Conservative Party is if Remain wins 60:40, and then they elect a hardcore "Out-ter", who moves the party in a direction that has just been fairly roundly rejected by the electorate.

AlastairMeeks said:

blackburn63 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

runnymede said:

'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'

That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?

'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'

Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though

'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'

Leavers sure do love their Nazi references.

That's another 1/100 shot landed.

A serious question Mr Meeks, what % of those who vote Leave do you consider to be Nazi sympathisers?

Serious answer, constantly refighting the Second World War isn't going to allay any concerns that Leavers are backward-looking Little Englanders. Leavers need to start reaching for less confrontational metaphors.

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy: what time do we get the results of the Nevada Democrat caucuses and the SC Republican primary?

In 2 hours time for Nevada, and 7 hours from now for S.C.

In Nevada they do an entrance poll not an exit poll since it's a caucus.
They start in the morning and finish an hour later.

taffys said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

isam said:

SeanT said:

rottenborough said:

Philip Hammond ‏@PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out

Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.

There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.

Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,

I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etc

Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.

Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.

I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.

The danger for the Conservative Party is if Remain wins 60:40, and then they elect a hardcore "Out-ter", who moves the party in a direction that has just been fairly roundly rejected by the electorate.

A lot of ifs in there, mate.

Richard_Tyndall said:

perdix said:

runnymede said:

'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'

That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?

'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'

Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though

'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'

Accusing Cameron and Co of telling lies requires some proof of you statement. If that's all that Leavers can say they will lose. Posted by a possible Leaver.

Not quite sure how someone deals with this. Cameron has made a series of Statements today which are directly contradicted by the document he has agreed. I assume that he has actually read and understood the document so he must know that what he is saying is not born out by the facts. How would you define that?