politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So it’s on. In just four months Britain will vote whether t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So it’s on. In just four months Britain will vote whether to stay or leave
It means that the referendum campaign will in many ways be running at the same time as the Scottish Welsh and of course London elections which happen at the start of May.
Comments
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Time for a PB prediction comp?0
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Ben Riley Smith
Almost entire Justice Department backs Brexit. Gove and Penning want Out. Raab, Selous, Dinenage probs likewise. Remarkable.0 -
Fred Dineage? That could sway a lot of people who watched "Gambit" and "How"in the early 80sPlato_Says said:Ben Riley Smith
Almost entire Justice Department backs Brexit. Gove and Penning want Out. Raab, Selous, Dinenage probs likewise. Remarkable.0 -
"A big problem for Cameron was seen in this morning’s newspapers. generally the Tory press is hostile and wants Britain to leave. This means that effectively the campaign could be Cameron vs the Tory press – the same media that played such a part in getting him elected last May."
That is indeed a problem, although it was noticeable and notable that The Sun didn't have a splash front page kicking Cameron's backside.
All the same, Cameron is going to spend a lot of time these next few months alongside Lib Dems, Labour, Greens and SNP politicians, while many of his activists, members, MPs and cabinet campaign, as well as - as you rightly say - the Tory-supporting media go against him.
Good job he doesn't really need that media again!0 -
It's on, like Donkey Kong.
Mr. Price, I second the motion.0 -
Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ?
I know this has happened in the EU before.0 -
(raises hand) "How"isam said:
Fred Dineage? That could sway a lot of people who watched "Gambit" and "How"in the early 80sPlato_Says said:Ben Riley Smith
Almost entire Justice Department backs Brexit. Gove and Penning want Out. Raab, Selous, Dinenage probs likewise. Remarkable.
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Mr. City, possible, but I don't think it'd happen.
However, I also think Remain has a very strong chance of winning. I'd be shocked if Leave won.0 -
There has been much speculation in the absence of JackW on his position :
Was his LEAVE permanent or will he REMAIN on PB ?
Developing Story ....
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Correct. And then we will campaign for Ever Closer Union. Even though I do not know what it means.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. City, possible, but I don't think it'd happen.
However, I also think Remain has a very strong chance of winning. I'd be shocked if Leave won.0 -
Mr. W, welcome back
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In what may be an unbelievable coincidence, Thursday June 23rd is the day before the release of "Independence Day: Resurgence", the sequel to the 1990's blockbuster.0
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Wasn't one of the presenters on that show a certain pre-overly made up / overly worked on Carol Vorderman?viewcode said:
(raises hand) "How"isam said:
Fred Dineage? That could sway a lot of people who watched "Gambit" and "How"in the early 80sPlato_Says said:Ben Riley Smith
Almost entire Justice Department backs Brexit. Gove and Penning want Out. Raab, Selous, Dinenage probs likewise. Remarkable.0 -
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David I can not believe any Labour politicians with ambitions of leadership will share any platform with Cameron during this period.david_herdson said:"A big problem for Cameron was seen in this morning’s newspapers. generally the Tory press is hostile and wants Britain to leave. This means that effectively the campaign could be Cameron vs the Tory press – the same media that played such a part in getting him elected last May."
That is indeed a problem, although it was noticeable and notable that The Sun didn't have a splash front page kicking Cameron's backside.
All the same, Cameron is going to spend a lot of time these next few months alongside Lib Dems, Labour, Greens and SNP politicians, while many of his activists, members, MPs and cabinet campaign, as well as - as you rightly say - the Tory-supporting media go against him.
Good job he doesn't really need that media again!
They will not as before be travelling up to Scotland on the same day to save the Union, they now know how that one played out.
Cameron Blair Straw Blunkett Mandelson maybe.
All new Labour together as that is what Cameron and Osborne are new Labour disciples.0 -
We will get a prediction competition up at some stage next week0
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One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what
So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner
If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)
On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose
But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two
LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse0 -
When do we get to vote on the matter?JackW said:There has been much speculation in the absence of JackW on his position :
Was his LEAVE permanent or will he REMAIN on PB ?
Developing Story ....0 -
Mr. Smithson, cheers.0
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Surely the number of players [ outcome ] has something to do with it.isam said:One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what
So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner
If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)
On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose
But they all have the same chance of winning
And LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse0 -
For that to happen, the Prime Minister would have to refuse to initiate the leave process[1] and sit on his hands whilst simultaneously restarting negotiations with 27 other countries. If he tried that, the Conservative party would remove him as Prime Minister.Yorkcity said:Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ?
I know this has happened in the EU before.
So no, basically.
I now refer you to other posters who will insist that this can be handwaviumed away because reasons.
[1] either by utilising the exit procedure as specified in Lisbon, or by repealing the relevantUK act
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For the want of idle speculation and to encourage competition my EuroARSE will decline to take part.MikeSmithson said:We will get a prediction competition up at some stage next week
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Yeah it explains why you might be more hopeful of winning on some 9/4 shots than others, but really it makes no difference, they win 4 times out of 13 (theoretically)surbiton said:
Surely the number of players [ outcome ] has something to do with it.isam said:One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what
So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner
If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)
On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose
But they all have the same chance of winning
And LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse0 -
June 23rd is apparently slap in the middle of Euro footie, does this matter?0
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Mr. W, a balanced approach is best.
I think you should Remain on pb.com, and we should Leave the EU.0 -
I do wonder how another terrorist outrage in Europe would affect the Referendum, if it were undertaken by ISIL terrorists who had come into Europe as refugees. Obviously the Paris attack evoked a huge amount of sympathy, but I'm not sure that would necessarily be manifested this time in an upwelling of solidarity with wherever suffered this time. My guess is if, God forbid, it came about, it would significantly favour Leave. My take is the 70% Remain is probably about right, but based on a 55%-45% result. A Black Swan could shift that into toss-up territory.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. City, possible, but I don't think it'd happen.
However, I also think Remain has a very strong chance of winning. I'd be shocked if Leave won.0 -
After I have had meaningful discussions in Brussels and cast iron guarantees from Mrs JackW.williamglenn said:
When do we get to vote on the matter?JackW said:There has been much speculation in the absence of JackW on his position :
Was his LEAVE permanent or will he REMAIN on PB ?
Developing Story ....
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Yes same here Morris.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. City, possible, but I don't think it'd happen.
However, I also think Remain has a very strong chance of winning. I'd be shocked if Leave won.
I think leave has no chance, the same as Corbyn if he stands at the next GE.
The foreign Office establisment will not let it happen, even the royals are on board.0 -
Leaving the EU could be good for ones health too.Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. W, a balanced approach is best.
I think you should Remain on pb.com, and we should Leave the EU.0 -
FPT
I think there is some academic research along those lines. I think there's an extra cultural factor regarding the morality of gambling, methodism (and other sects) and the history of the left. I still feel slightly conflicted about stoke city's current status being funded by bet365 (tho i don't have any real objection to gambling, apart from a cultural religious hangover)viewcode said:
Oooh, goddammit, that's actually interesting. "Risk-aversion and Risk-attraction as predictors of political affiliation": I'd read that for a dollar...dugarbandier said:
i suspect (without evidence) that those who view gambling in a positive light may not be evenly distributed across the political spectrum
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And that's How - for now.viewcode said:
(raises hand) "How"isam said:
Fred Dineage? That could sway a lot of people who watched "Gambit" and "How"in the early 80sPlato_Says said:Ben Riley Smith
Almost entire Justice Department backs Brexit. Gove and Penning want Out. Raab, Selous, Dinenage probs likewise. Remarkable.0 -
Mr. City, Leave has a better chance than Corbyn. But it's still a very long shot, in my view. Similar to Alonso winning the 2017 Drivers' title.0
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England will be out of the competition by the 23rd anyway!Plato_Says said:June 23rd is apparently slap in the middle of Euro footie, does this matter?
Wales on the other hand...0 -
Cameron is going to spend a lot of time these next few months alongside Lib Dems, Labour, Greens
We all gravitate to where we're comfortable0 -
Some REMAIN voters are on the pitch .... they think it's all over .... It is now ....Plato_Says said:June 23rd is apparently slap in the middle of Euro footie, does this matter?
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Thanks viewcode much appreciated.viewcode said:
For that to happen, the Prime Minister would have to refuse to initiate the leave process[1] and sit on his hands whilst simultaneously restarting negotiations with 27 other countries. If he tried that, the Conservative party would remove him as Prime Minister.Yorkcity said:Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ?
I know this has happened in the EU before.
So no, basically.
I now refer you to other posters who will insist that this can be handwaviumed away because reasons.
[1] either by utilising the exit procedure as specified in Lisbon, or by repealing the relevantUK act0 -
EURARSE will not be on display?JackW said:
For the want of idle speculation and to encourage competition my EuroARSE will decline to take part.MikeSmithson said:We will get a prediction competition up at some stage next week
A nation mourns...0 -
Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?
For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF0 -
Since neither Leave nor Remain is an adequate option, and not voting would be sad, perhaps the best choice is a creatively spoiled paper.
Then an ideal, but unrealistic, result might be so close that the spoiled papers exceeded the majority,
In any case I'd expect the total of non-voters and spoiled papers, to exceed the majority.0 -
I've just had a few £ on remain 60-65% @ 5-1 with Ladbrokes.0
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I would say no. I think Viewcode's analysis is bang on the money.Yorkcity said:Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ?
I know this has happened in the EU before.0 -
Plato_Says said:
Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?
For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF
Bollox... is a thought one could have.
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Yes agreed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. City, Leave has a better chance than Corbyn. But it's still a very long shot, in my view. Similar to Alonso winning the 2017 Drivers' title.
The only reason I could see is turn out with older and conservative voters more likey to vote leave and Labour younger voters not as energised to bother to vote remain.
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Yeah I've got thoughts on it but you'll accuse me of losing votes for Leave.Plato_Says said:Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?
For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF
Let's just say its total bollox0 -
viewcode said:
In what may be an unbelievable coincidence, Thursday June 23rd is the day before the release of "Independence Day: Resurgence", the sequel to the 1990's blockbuster.
I wonder if the sequel will also have plucky resistance fighters bringing down the forces of oppression - using a suicide bomber to show the way?0 -
Not for the competition but a regular viewing of my EuroARSE seems apposite as the wind of change breezes through the nether regions of the EU.MarqueeMark said:
EURARSE will not be on display?JackW said:
For the want of idle speculation and to encourage competition my EuroARSE will decline to take part.MikeSmithson said:We will get a prediction competition up at some stage next week
A nation mourns...
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Lol. Do these people really believe what they are saying:
https://twitter.com/ben4ipswich/status/701060118734102528
https://twitter.com/JustineGreening/status/701021894653435904
https://twitter.com/karren_brady/status/7009956431212093440 -
Mr. City, rather boringly, I agree with that as well.0
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A key point that's often misinterpreted - 70% probability of a Remain win isn't a prediction of a 70% vote share. I'm annoyed with how often people get this wrong.MarqueeMark said:
I do wonder how another terrorist outrage in Europe would affect the Referendum, if it were undertaken by ISIL terrorists who had come into Europe as refugees. Obviously the Paris attack evoked a huge amount of sympathy, but I'm not sure that would necessarily be manifested this time in an upwelling of solidarity with wherever suffered this time. My guess is if, God forbid, it came about, it would significantly favour Leave. My take is the 70% Remain is probably about right, but based on a 55%-45% result. A Black Swan could shift that into toss-up territory.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. City, possible, but I don't think it'd happen.
However, I also think Remain has a very strong chance of winning. I'd be shocked if Leave won.0 -
It looks like it's going to be Tory Party leadership vs Tory party.
It all comes down on how many are willing to disobey orders from the top, on an issue that if the leadership is defeated it won't threaten Tory dominance in Parliament, but it will certainly affect the horse race for next Tory leader.
As for the deal it's self, the expectations were low and the deal didn't meet them, it solves no issue and no problem, and it has no guarantees and plenty of loopholes so it probably won't be implemented either.
It is even a watered down version of the last deal that was rejected by the press and the public as an insult a few weeks ago.0 -
There will be quite a lot of Tories wondering why they voted for the wrong person now that the inners have been outed.Speedy said:It looks like it's going to be Tory Party leadership vs Tory party.
It all comes down on how many are willing to disobey orders from the top, on an issue that if the leadership is defeated it won't threaten Tory dominance in Parliament, but it will certainly affect the horse race for next Tory leader.
As for the deal it's self, the expectations were low and the deal didn't meet them, it solves no issue and no problem, and it has no guarantees and plenty of loopholes so it probably won't be implemented either.
It is even a watered down version of the last deal that was rejected by the press and the public as an insult a few weeks ago.0 -
or TOTAL BolloxMarkHopkins said:Plato_Says said:Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?
For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF
Bollox... is a thought one could have.0 -
Mr. G, which way are you planning to vote?0
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So there we have it..Cameron..the liar..has done what he said he would do..given us a referendum..who'd a thunk it...now all we have to do is consider the deal and then do what everybody has been screaming for...vote.0
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Snake Oil :-)Plato_Says said:Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?
For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF
What is the equivalent number for, say, Canada?
Our govt doesn't seem to pay them much VAT and other things, but we still get a lot of jobs back.
Is there any data about the things we pay lower prices for? Lower prices than what?0 -
Good morning. In less than an hour, aircraft from here will join others from around the world. And you will be launching the largest aerial battle in the history of mankind. "Mankind." That word should have new meaning for all of us today. We can't be consumed by our petty differences anymore. We will be united in our common interests. Perhaps it's fate that today is the 23rd of June, and you will once again be fighting for our freedom... Not from tyranny, oppression, or persecution... but from annihilation. We are fighting for our right to live. To exist. And should we win the day, the 23rd of June will no longer be known as a British holiday, but as the day the world declared in one voice: "We will not go quietly into the night!" We will not vanish without a fight! We're going to live on! We're going to survive! Today we celebrate our Independence Day!viewcode said:In what may be an unbelievable coincidence, Thursday June 23rd is the day before the release of "Independence Day: Resurgence", the sequel to the 1990's blockbuster.
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We're starting the campaign virtually on a 50/50 basis... a lot of people keep going back to the 1975 referendum pointing out how it swung it in favour of the elites after a huge campaign. But the world isn't like that anymore, the elites are not trusted and you could actually say are distrusted. It's a different world to back then.
A few recent examples to think about are the Scottish independence referendum and how those poll figures shifted over the campaign, the Euro 2014 Elections and more recently in America the rise of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz against the GOP establishment.0 -
Quite an assertion that a politician has actually kept their word .... I may have to lie down .... REMAIN there for some time and LEAVE Mrs JackW to explain the whole bizarre situation to me.richardDodd said:So there we have it..Cameron..the liar..has done what he said he would do..given us a referendum..who'd a thunk it...now all we have to do is consider the deal and then do what everybody has been screaming for...vote.
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Well as usual it's not accurate, for every pound we put in we lose 4 pounds from trade, we gain around a pound from extra EU investment, and prices are higher at least with agricultural goods due to the EU common agriculture policy.Plato_Says said:Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?
For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF
If you account some extra jobs that the extra EU investment causes and job losses from German competition, Britain is net worse by around 2-3 times of it's contribution.0 -
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I think the tweets underneath in response have said what needs to be said. The claim that our membership is worth £200 billion a year is so fanciful as to be laughable.Plato_Says said:Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?
For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF0 -
For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?isam said:One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what
So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner
If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)
On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose
But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two
LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse0 -
Mr. Tyndall, it's a shade Doctor Evil.0
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We give the EU roughly THIRTY times what we give to India, net.Plato_Says said:Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?
For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BRDfTBdCEAAMQU7.jpg:large0 -
In the deal Cameron aimed low and missed.Speedy said:It looks like it's going to be Tory Party leadership vs Tory party.
It all comes down on how many are willing to disobey orders from the top, on an issue that if the leadership is defeated it won't threaten Tory dominance in Parliament, but it will certainly affect the horse race for next Tory leader.
As for the deal it's self, the expectations were low and the deal didn't meet them, it solves no issue and no problem, and it has no guarantees and plenty of loopholes so it probably won't be implemented either.
It is even a watered down version of the last deal that was rejected by the press and the public as an insult a few weeks ago.0 -
It's in the same class of Grade I bull as the classic "3 millions jobs" claim...Richard_Tyndall said:
I think the tweets underneath in response have said what needs to be said. The claim that our membership is worth £200 billion a year is so fanciful as to be laughable.Plato_Says said:Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?
For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF0 -
He won't be getting my vote, for sure.MP_SE said:George will never be leader:
https://twitter.com/lawyers4britain/status/700964983631454208
Will be interesting to see which two MPs get to the final round of 2 (for the membership to vote). Boris v May is my guess now.0 -
The same!david_herdson said:
For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?isam said:One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what
So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner
If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)
On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose
But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two
LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse0 -
It'd be via Article 50. To go down any unilateral route would severely prejudice talks on EEA entry or a bilateral trade deal.viewcode said:
For that to happen, the Prime Minister would have to refuse to initiate the leave process[1] and sit on his hands whilst simultaneously restarting negotiations with 27 other countries. If he tried that, the Conservative party would remove him as Prime Minister.Yorkcity said:Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ?
I know this has happened in the EU before.
So no, basically.
I now refer you to other posters who will insist that this can be handwaviumed away because reasons.
[1] either by utilising the exit procedure as specified in Lisbon, or by repealing the relevantUK act0 -
Its an opinion. Heads v tails is evens, no outside factors. Punting is about judgement which is why most punters lose and better informed, dispassionate bookmakers win in the long term. Of course betfair has created a different animal.david_herdson said:
For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?isam said:One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what
So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner
If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)
On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose
But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two
LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse
What price were Arsenal to win today?0 -
A lot shorter than REMAIN!blackburn63 said:
Its an opinion. Heads v tails is evens, no outside factors. Punting is about judgement which is why most punters lose and better informed, dispassionate bookmakers win in the long term. Of course betfair has created a different animal.david_herdson said:
For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?isam said:One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what
So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner
If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)
On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose
But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two
LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse
What price were Arsenal to win today?
Suarez just opened the scoring for Barcelona.. hardly earth shatteringly surprising, but at 10/3 it was 7% less likely in betting terms than us leaving the EU0 -
I'd be surprised if Dominic Raab and Andrew Selous didn't support Leave. Caroline Dinenage would be a bonus.Plato_Says said:Ben Riley Smith
Almost entire Justice Department backs Brexit. Gove and Penning want Out. Raab, Selous, Dinenage probs likewise. Remarkable.0 -
I'm not sure who is more amusing:Alanbrooke said:
There will be quite a lot of Tories wondering why they voted for the wrong person now that the inners have been outed.Speedy said:It looks like it's going to be Tory Party leadership vs Tory party.
It all comes down on how many are willing to disobey orders from the top, on an issue that if the leadership is defeated it won't threaten Tory dominance in Parliament, but it will certainly affect the horse race for next Tory leader.
As for the deal it's self, the expectations were low and the deal didn't meet them, it solves no issue and no problem, and it has no guarantees and plenty of loopholes so it probably won't be implemented either.
It is even a watered down version of the last deal that was rejected by the press and the public as an insult a few weeks ago.
1) PB Tories discovering the real views of the Conservative leadership.
2) The Cameron cheerleaders who emphasised protection for the City on the expectation that Cameron would get it and who have now have gone very quiet on the issue.
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Last price matched on Rubio is 2.78
Cromwell rides again.0 -
No flies on you Sam ;-)isam said:
A lot shorter than REMAIN!blackburn63 said:
Its an opinion. Heads v tails is evens, no outside factors. Punting is about judgement which is why most punters lose and better informed, dispassionate bookmakers win in the long term. Of course betfair has created a different animal.david_herdson said:
For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?isam said:One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what
So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner
If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)
On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose
But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two
LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse
What price were Arsenal to win today?0 -
Cameron was dragged here kicking and screaming and his renegotiation is nothing like what he promised. Not only has he destroyed this historic opportunity, he's destroyed Britain's future political capital in the EU (if we Remain) as they know our political class are pushovers.richardDodd said:So there we have it..Cameron..the liar..has done what he said he would do..given us a referendum..who'd a thunk it...now all we have to do is consider the deal and then do what everybody has been screaming for...vote.
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Forced, I'd buy Rubio - Leave spread. Already long enough Rubio though.isam said:
The same!david_herdson said:
For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?isam said:One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what
So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner
If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)
On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose
But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two
LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse0 -
Their case for remaining in the EU is one of cultural sentiment, we are all europeans sharing common destiny bla bla bla together bla bla common culture bla vote remain for the good of europe.MP_SE said:Lol. Do these people really believe what they are saying:
twitter.com/ben4ipswich/status/701060118734102528
twitter.com/JustineGreening/status/701021894653435904
twitter.com/karren_brady/status/700995643121209344
The problem is that the good of europe costs Britain a lot, in my opinion it's never worth paying huge amounts of money, damaging your economy and undermining your self respect and your institutions, for sentimental reasons (apart from marriage of course).
And of course the EU is not really good for europe anyway, not at it's present course and structure, by leaving the EU we will give it a necessary shock to put their act together or risk losing other members as well.
The case for Remain is one of cultural values, the case for Leave is one of economic values.0 -
I got 6-1 on that % bracket with Ladbrokes a few weeks ago..Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:I've just had a few £ on remain 60-65% @ 5-1 with Ladbrokes.
My guess is that we're looking at a similar result to the Scottish independence referendum, ie 45% Leave. Which would mean a similar consequence - the union is saved but the establishment is kept on their toes and a further referendum is always round the corner!0 -
REMAIN will be delighted if LEAVE do as well as ScotLEAVE, Ukip or Ted Cruz.Viceroy said:We're starting the campaign virtually on a 50/50 basis... a lot of people keep going back to the 1975 referendum pointing out how it swung it in favour of the elites after a huge campaign. But the world isn't like that anymore, the elites are not trusted and you could actually say are distrusted. It's a different world to back then.
A few recent examples to think about are the Scottish independence referendum and how those poll figures shifted over the campaign, the Euro 2014 Elections and more recently in America the rise of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz against the GOP establishment.0 -
The deal forbids another referendum on the EU I think, in the event voters choose Remain.CornishBlue said:
I got 6-1 on that % bracket with Ladbrokes a few weeks ago..Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:I've just had a few £ on remain 60-65% @ 5-1 with Ladbrokes.
My guess is that we're looking at a similar result to the Scottish independence referendum, ie 45% Leave. Which would mean a similar consequence - the union is saved but the establishment is kept on their toes and a further referendum is always round the corner!0 -
Does anyone have the relevant excerpt for the non-EMU protections to hand? I'm seriously hung over and don't want to comb through pages of bullshit to find it!0
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Is there something about you and George Galloway you wish to tell us?blackburn63 said:Cameron is going to spend a lot of time these next few months alongside Lib Dems, Labour, Greens
We all gravitate to where we're comfortable0 -
Looks like the Quite Nasty Party vs the Very Nasty Party doesn’t it! Perhaps this the issue which will divide the Tories as badly as the Corn Laws did almost 200 years ago.0
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Mr. Viceroy, indeed. Not only that, but he's thrown away leverage, so even if we get someone with some backbone, they'll have a much harder time of it.
Unless Cameron's still there in 2020, and Labour's led by Corbyn, I'm not sure I'll vote Conservative again whilst he's leader.0 -
Sure, but that's been the case for years. The issue is more as Mr Dodds points out now there;s a Euref what are you going to do to win it ?Viceroy said:
Cameron was dragged here kicking and screaming and his renegotiation is nothing like what he promised. Not only has he destroyed this historic opportunity, he's destroyed Britain's future political capital in the EU (if we Remain) as they know our political class are pushovers.richardDodd said:So there we have it..Cameron..the liar..has done what he said he would do..given us a referendum..who'd a thunk it...now all we have to do is consider the deal and then do what everybody has been screaming for...vote.
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Yep. Anything other than article 50 puts us in direct breach of our treaty obligations. Something we work very hard not to do for fairly obvious reasons.david_herdson said:
It'd be via Article 50. To go down any unilateral route would severely prejudice talks on EEA entry or a bilateral trade deal.viewcode said:
For that to happen, the Prime Minister would have to refuse to initiate the leave process[1] and sit on his hands whilst simultaneously restarting negotiations with 27 other countries. If he tried that, the Conservative party would remove him as Prime Minister.Yorkcity said:Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ?
I know this has happened in the EU before.
So no, basically.
I now refer you to other posters who will insist that this can be handwaviumed away because reasons.
[1] either by utilising the exit procedure as specified in Lisbon, or by repealing the relevantUK act0 -
Cameron might have promised, but nothing binds the hands of subsequent UK governments.Speedy said:
The deal forbids another referendum on the EU I think, in the event voters choose Remain.CornishBlue said:
I got 6-1 on that % bracket with Ladbrokes a few weeks ago..Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:I've just had a few £ on remain 60-65% @ 5-1 with Ladbrokes.
My guess is that we're looking at a similar result to the Scottish independence referendum, ie 45% Leave. Which would mean a similar consequence - the union is saved but the establishment is kept on their toes and a further referendum is always round the corner!0 -
That wouldn't stop a future government from holding one.Speedy said:
The deal forbids another referendum on the EU I think, in the event voters choose Remain.CornishBlue said:
I got 6-1 on that % bracket with Ladbrokes a few weeks ago..Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:I've just had a few £ on remain 60-65% @ 5-1 with Ladbrokes.
My guess is that we're looking at a similar result to the Scottish independence referendum, ie 45% Leave. Which would mean a similar consequence - the union is saved but the establishment is kept on their toes and a further referendum is always round the corner!0 -
It would also be pretty dumb, and leave a lot of things in legal limbo.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep. Anything other than article 50 puts us in direct breach of our treaty obligations. Something we work very hard not to do for fairly obvious reasons.david_herdson said:
It'd be via Article 50. To go down any unilateral route would severely prejudice talks on EEA entry or a bilateral trade deal.viewcode said:
For that to happen, the Prime Minister would have to refuse to initiate the leave process[1] and sit on his hands whilst simultaneously restarting negotiations with 27 other countries. If he tried that, the Conservative party would remove him as Prime Minister.Yorkcity said:Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ?
I know this has happened in the EU before.
So no, basically.
I now refer you to other posters who will insist that this can be handwaviumed away because reasons.
[1] either by utilising the exit procedure as specified in Lisbon, or by repealing the relevantUK act0 -
Speedy: what time do we get the results of the Nevada Democrat caucuses and the SC Republican primary?0
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They'd make a great Issue team on the Justice problems - something pretty important to those irked by EU interference.
Leave really needs to focus on such stuff, and keep on for days until it sticks.Sean_F said:
I'd be surprised if Dominic Raab and Andrew Selous didn't support Leave. Caroline Dinenage would be a bonus.Plato_Says said:Ben Riley Smith
Almost entire Justice Department backs Brexit. Gove and Penning want Out. Raab, Selous, Dinenage probs likewise. Remarkable.0 -
No other way round. The deal forbids another referendum if we vote LEAVE. This is to stop the idea of vote leave, use it as a bargaining chip to get a better deal then vote again.Speedy said:
The deal forbids another referendum on the EU I think, in the event voters choose Remain.CornishBlue said:
I got 6-1 on that % bracket with Ladbrokes a few weeks ago..Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:I've just had a few £ on remain 60-65% @ 5-1 with Ladbrokes.
My guess is that we're looking at a similar result to the Scottish independence referendum, ie 45% Leave. Which would mean a similar consequence - the union is saved but the establishment is kept on their toes and a further referendum is always round the corner!
If we vote REMAIN there is nothing the EU can do to stop us having another referendum later.0 -
I would be very surprised if the final three were Boris, Osborne and May. I could well see only one of them making it, and then not being elected.CornishBlue said:
He won't be getting my vote, for sure.MP_SE said:George will never be leader:
https://twitter.com/lawyers4britain/status/700964983631454208
Will be interesting to see which two MPs get to the final round of 2 (for the membership to vote). Boris v May is my guess now.0 -
LOL
just listening to Cameron's speech. He's really laying on the scare the voters theme0 -
I suspect exposure on PB is slightly more likely to get opinion former attention than a single tweet thread.
Glad to see its getting the derision it deserves.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think the tweets underneath in response have said what needs to be said. The claim that our membership is worth £200 billion a year is so fanciful as to be laughable.Plato_Says said:Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?
For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF0 -
China made about $300 billion from the EU in 2015 without putting a single renminbi in.Plato_Says said:Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?
For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/exports-to-european-union
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