politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Deal done – and combined with LEAVE’s Galloway error of jud
Comments
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Now the referendum campaign has been called you can join the campaigns here:
If you are for Remain
Britain Stronger in Europe
http://www.strongerin.co.uk/#AZMixIxuWkXxbtWu.97
If you are for Leave
Vote Leave
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/
Get Britain Out
http://getbritainout.org/
Grassroots Out
http://grassrootsout.co.uk/0 -
It sure is.Casino_Royale said:
That's superb:TheScreamingEagles said:Here's Gove statement.
Well worth reading
http://order-order.com/2016/02/20/read-gove-statement-in-full/
"The ability to choose who governs us, and the freedom to change laws we do not like, were secured for us in the past by radicals and liberals who took power from unaccountable elites and placed it in the hands of the people. As a result of their efforts we developed, and exported to nations like the US, India, Canada and Australia a system of democratic self-government which has brought prosperity and peace to millions.
Our democracy stood the test of time. We showed the world what a free people could achieve if they were allowed to govern themselves."
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Two cents not worth a farthing. We've had 40 years 'to create a democratic Europe run for working people' - and got - and have got again SFA.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Owen Jones @OwenJones84 3m3 minutes ago
Vote In, then build a campaign across the Continent to create a democratic Europe run for working people. My two cents.0 -
I've said on PB many times, I'm a fan of Gove on many levels, he's doing a brilliant job at Justice.SouthamObserver said:
He is making clear his decision has nothing to do with the deal Cameron got. It is one of principle. Good for him.TheScreamingEagles said:Here's Gove statement.
Well worth reading
http://order-order.com/2016/02/20/read-gove-statement-in-full/
That letter has proved my faith in him wasn't misplaced.0 -
Still working in the Netherlands Fluffy, or no longer making use of your right to freedom of movement within the EU?FluffyThoughts said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chanticleer_and_the_FoxSouthamObserver said:Boris is a total cock. Never has personal ambition been more poirly hidden. Whatever he decides now will be viewed solely through that prism. He's just another posh boy who thinks he should be PM because he'd be rather good at it. I don't like Gove politically, but he has convictions and he has courage. He's a better man than Boris.
Tumbleweed, projection perchance?
:nuff-zed:
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Stunning, stunning letter.Plato_Says said:Text
http://order-order.com/2016/02/20/read-gove-statement-in-full/Casino_Royale said:
Link?TheScreamingEagles said:Gove giving a very good speech, and also makes it easier to heal the Tory party.
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It has been both credible and a fact for the last 50 years and continues to be today. There will be more unification. There has to be or the whole edifice crumbles. Cameron has just signed up for us to be dragged further into that.EPG said:Leadsom's talking as if Schengen isn't a dead letter, or as if the Germans don't resent any scintilla of economic decision-making ceded to the Union. The bogeyman of ever-closer union just ain't credible
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No disrespect to you isam, happy to be with you, but I just think GO displayed super-poor judgement with Galloway.isam said:
I don't see how this is at all surprising? It is the natural place for a lot of Conservative voters who want to leave. Why feel the need to be angry at GO for catering for people that want to leave but aren't Cameron inclined? Or rather, intensly dislike Camerons Conservatives. It is a broad church and it is unnecessary to try and make it full of similar peopleCasino_Royale said:That's settled it for me.
I'll be joining Vote Leave.
I'll be ignoring Leave.EU and GO>!
I was open-minded until he turned up, but can't campaign for a team who's judgement is that poor.
Anyway, does it matter? I do Vote Leave, you do Leave.EU or GO and we are both fighting for the same cause.0 -
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
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It's the statement of a leader.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've said on PB many times, I'm a fan of Gove on many levels, he's doing a brilliant job at Justice.SouthamObserver said:
He is making clear his decision has nothing to do with the deal Cameron got. It is one of principle. Good for him.TheScreamingEagles said:Here's Gove statement.
Well worth reading
http://order-order.com/2016/02/20/read-gove-statement-in-full/
That letter has proved my faith in him wasn't misplaced.0 -
Precisely, this isn't rocket science and yet there's a massive blind spot it seems for some.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I have now joined the Britain Stronger in Europe mailing list, as far as I can see there is only 1 main Remain campaign, but 4 to choose from for you Leavers!0
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The Grim Reaper now seems to have his authors list out. "Harper Lee....tick....Umberto Eco....tick....."rcs1000 said:Umberto eco has died. I loved name of the rose
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She's deluded or disingenuous. Even the most optimistic can't seriously expect the UK to leapfrog Germany and Japan (unless they plan to do it by importing millions more people).TCPoliticalBetting said:Andrea Leadsom -"The UK is the world 's fifth biggest economy, the best performing in Western Europe, and there is the expectation that we will soon leapfrog over Germany and Japan to climb the global league tables even further...."
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Works both ways.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Precisely, this isn't rocket science and yet there's a massive blind spot it seems for some.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tony Blair, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Celebrity Luvvies, Goldman Sachs, etc., etc.0 -
Wodger:Roger said:
That we will overtake Germany and Japan is complete hogwash. Only quote it if you want to sound ridiculousJohn_M said:
She writes an excellent letter. I'll preserve it for future reference, to combat the dreary 'back to the '50s' or 'harking back to the days of Empire' nonsense the Europhiles trot out.TCPoliticalBetting said:Andrea Leadsom "Now that 18 of the 28 member states have a shared currency, it is inevitable that they will move closer to full political and fiscal union. They need to align their banking and taxation systems, and to follow through with the European Public Prosecutor and unified policing that naturally follow the Schengen Agreement on open borders. "
As the EU moves inevitably towards a 'United States' of Europe, the UK will increasingly go from a 'senior partner ' with influence to a country whose views count for little in Brussels and yet whose parliament is increasingly subservient to EU legislation. I wholeheartedly believe in the primacy of our Westminster Parliament and we should not allow the continued erosion of our national sovereignty."
"I am a parent. The question I ask myself is "what do I want for my children's future?" The UK is the world 's fifth biggest economy, the best performing in Western Europe, and there is the expectation that we will soon leapfrog over Germany and Japan to climb the global league tables even further. We are an amazing island nation filled with inventiveness and creativity ..."
Do you understand economics, demographics and markets? That is if your understanding is nothing apart from modified Kleenex rolls-up to sell to some 'Blud-Kludt' consumers?* Or do you still believe the lies and fallicies of the EU...?
* Please moderate if 'Seventies Lewisham-lingo is not suitable for the "Islington/Monaco" 'elite'....
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I've just seen a tweet from a group calling themselves Africansforleave.
This thing could get massive. Massive.0 -
First donation to VoteLeave from me made.HYUFD said:
Now the referendum campaign has been called you can join the campaigns here:
If you are for Remain
Britain Stronger in Europe
http://www.strongerin.co.uk/#AZMixIxuWkXxbtWu.97
If you are for Leave
Vote Leave
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/
Get Britain Out
http://getbritainout.org/
Grassroots Out
http://grassrootsout.co.uk/0 -
Leave.EU link below tooHYUFD said:Now the referendum campaign has been called you can join the campaigns here:
If you are for Remain
Britain Stronger in Europe
http://www.strongerin.co.uk/#AZMixIxuWkXxbtWu.97
If you are for Leave
Vote Leave
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/
Get Britain Out
http://getbritainout.org/
Grassroots Out
http://grassrootsout.co.uk/
http://leave.eu/0 -
HYUFD said:
I have now joined the Britain Stronger in Europe mailing list, as far as I can see there is only 1 main Remain campaign, but 3 to choose from for you Leavers!
Sums up the whole proposition: If we Remain then we have no choice but to be stuck in the EU, but if we Leave there are many options open to us.
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Speaks volumes that even BSE's name is deceptive. It is impossible to leave the continent of Europe...MarkHopkins said:HYUFD said:I have now joined the Britain Stronger in Europe mailing list, as far as I can see there is only 1 main Remain campaign, but 3 to choose from for you Leavers!
Sums up the whole proposition: If we Remain then we have no choice but to be stuck in the EU, but if we Leave there are many options open to us.0 -
But if Martin McGuiness, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn, Alex Salmond, Emma Thompson, Eddie Izzard, Nick Clegg, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, the Big Banks and the CBI are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:-1 -
You should read a bit more Roger. It's been forecast by more than the people you affect to despise. And you really shouldn't mention sounding ridiculous; it's your standard modus operandi.Roger said:
That we will overtake Germany and Japan is complete hogwash. Only quote it if you want to sound ridiculousJohn_M said:
She writes an excellent letter. I'll preserve it for future reference, to combat the dreary 'back to the '50s' or 'harking back to the days of Empire' nonsense the Europhiles trot out.TCPoliticalBetting said:Andrea Leadsom "Now that 18 of the 28 member states have a shared currency, it is inevitable that they will move closer to full political and fiscal union. They need to align their banking and taxation systems, and to follow through with the European Public Prosecutor and unified policing that naturally follow the Schengen Agreement on open borders. "
As the EU moves inevitably towards a 'United States' of Europe, the UK will increasingly go from a 'senior partner ' with influence to a country whose views count for little in Brussels and yet whose parliament is increasingly subservient to EU legislation. I wholeheartedly believe in the primacy of our Westminster Parliament and we should not allow the continued erosion of our national sovereignty."
"I am a parent. The question I ask myself is "what do I want for my children's future?" The UK is the world 's fifth biggest economy, the best performing in Western Europe, and there is the expectation that we will soon leapfrog over Germany and Japan to climb the global league tables even further. We are an amazing island nation filled with inventiveness and creativity ..."0 -
Bruges Group
It is expected that Boris Johnson will announce his decision following Cameron's interview with @AndrewMarr9 tomorrow0 -
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Osborne, Clegg, Corbyn, Brown, Blair, Miliband, Mandelson, Kinnock and Gerry Adams are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
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More panto.Plato_Says said:Bruges Group
It is expected that Boris Johnson will announce his decision following Cameron's interview with @AndrewMarr9 tomorrow0 -
And Remain have Emma Thompson, Eddie Izzard, Corbyn, Blair, Sarpong, Rose, Mandelson etcSouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
Your point is?0 -
Yeah exactly , I don't mind who campaigns for who or what motivates them, I don't think it really matters.Casino_Royale said:
No disrespect to you isam, happy to be with you, but I just think GO displayed super-poor judgement with Galloway.isam said:
I don't see how this is at all surprising? It is the natural place for a lot of Conservative voters who want to leave. Why feel the need to be angry at GO for catering for people that want to leave but aren't Cameron inclined? Or rather, intensly dislike Camerons Conservatives. It is a broad church and it is unnecessary to try and make it full of similar peopleCasino_Royale said:That's settled it for me.
I'll be joining Vote Leave.
I'll be ignoring Leave.EU and GO>!
I was open-minded until he turned up, but can't campaign for a team who's judgement is that poor.
Anyway, does it matter? I do Vote Leave, you do Leave.EU or GO and we are both fighting for the same cause.
I can see why people don't like Galloway, I don't agree with him on much, but hen he is on tv he comes across quite well. Farage and Galloway annoy political establishment, but they do engage non political obsessives, and they are crucial0 -
It will. Although Remain also have Cameron, Osborne and a few others too. Who are the Leave equivalents?Casino_Royale said:
But if Martin McGuiness, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn, Alex Salmond, Emma Thompson, Eddie Izzard, Nick Clegg, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, the Big Banks and the CBI are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
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Now we just need to find some prominent Marmite politico or celeb who promotes abstention and it's all done and dustedCasino_Royale said:
But if Martin McGuiness, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn, Alex Salmond, Emma Thompson, Eddie Izzard, Nick Clegg, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, the Big Banks and the CBI are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
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Extrapolation of temporary demographic trends to make geopolitical or economic predictions is notoriously unreliable. The same people were predicting that Russia would wither away.John_M said:
You should read a bit more Roger. It's been forecast by more than the people you affect to despise. And you really shouldn't mention sounding ridiculous; it's your standard modus operandi.Roger said:
That we will overtake Germany and Japan is complete hogwash. Only quote it if you want to sound ridiculousJohn_M said:
She writes an excellent letter. I'll preserve it for future reference, to combat the dreary 'back to the '50s' or 'harking back to the days of Empire' nonsense the Europhiles trot out.TCPoliticalBetting said:Andrea Leadsom "Now that 18 of the 28 member states have a shared currency, it is inevitable that they will move closer to full political and fiscal union. They need to align their banking and taxation systems, and to follow through with the European Public Prosecutor and unified policing that naturally follow the Schengen Agreement on open borders. "
As the EU moves inevitably towards a 'United States' of Europe, the UK will increasingly go from a 'senior partner ' with influence to a country whose views count for little in Brussels and yet whose parliament is increasingly subservient to EU legislation. I wholeheartedly believe in the primacy of our Westminster Parliament and we should not allow the continued erosion of our national sovereignty."
"I am a parent. The question I ask myself is "what do I want for my children's future?" The UK is the world 's fifth biggest economy, the best performing in Western Europe, and there is the expectation that we will soon leapfrog over Germany and Japan to climb the global league tables even further. We are an amazing island nation filled with inventiveness and creativity ..."0 -
Are you swayed by who supports what, or have you got a brain that thinks for itself?SouthamObserver said:
It will. Although Remain also have Cameron, Osborne and a few others too. Who are the Leave equivalents?Casino_Royale said:
But if Martin McGuiness, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn, Alex Salmond, Emma Thompson, Eddie Izzard, Nick Clegg, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, the Big Banks and the CBI are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.0 -
Not precisely. You also need to factor in the PM and the Chancellor, plus a number of other cabinet ministers. All Leave have so far are right wingers, a few maverick, unknown Labour backbenchers and George Galloway. They are not speaking to the centre ground.MP_SE said:
Works both ways.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Precisely, this isn't rocket science and yet there's a massive blind spot it seems for some.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tony Blair, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Celebrity Luvvies, Goldman Sachs, etc., etc.
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Better education does mean they have common sense. Not too long ago huge numbers of well educated academics came out in support of Communism. They could not have been more wrong.Roger said:Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.0 -
The bogeyman of ever-closer union just ain't credible
What total nonsense.0 -
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/george-osborne-uk-could-be-richer-than-america-by-2030-9979231.htmlwilliamglenn said:
She's deluded or disingenuous. Even the most optimistic can't seriously expect the UK to leapfrog Germany and Japan (unless they plan to do it by importing millions more people).TCPoliticalBetting said:Andrea Leadsom -"The UK is the world 's fifth biggest economy, the best performing in Western Europe, and there is the expectation that we will soon leapfrog over Germany and Japan to climb the global league tables even further...."
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Frank Field is hardly a maverick unknown. He is one of the most well respected MPs in the House by all sides. I think it would probably be difficult to find a current Labour MP who was considered more centre ground.SouthamObserver said:
Not precisely. You also need to factor in the PM and the Chancellor, plus a number of other cabinet ministers. All Leave have so far are right wingers, a few maverick, unknown Labour backbenchers and George Galloway. They are not speaking to the centre ground.MP_SE said:
Works both ways.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Precisely, this isn't rocket science and yet there's a massive blind spot it seems for some.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tony Blair, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Celebrity Luvvies, Goldman Sachs, etc., etc.0 -
That's the way to win people over to your cause!!nigel4england said:
Are you swayed by who supports what, or have you got a brain that thinks for itself?SouthamObserver said:
It will. Although Remain also have Cameron, Osborne and a few others too. Who are the Leave equivalents?Casino_Royale said:
But if Martin McGuiness, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn, Alex Salmond, Emma Thompson, Eddie Izzard, Nick Clegg, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, the Big Banks and the CBI are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I think all it proves in the end is that you can't make such generalisations.Roger said:Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.0 -
It's all about the centre ground. Who are the Leave side's centre ground politicians?another_richard said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Osborne, Clegg, Corbyn, Brown, Blair, Miliband, Mandelson, Kinnock and Gerry Adams are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
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Yes, increasing GDP per capita is a good goal and should be the number that the political debate hinges on, not absolute GDP.TCPoliticalBetting said:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/george-osborne-uk-could-be-richer-than-america-by-2030-9979231.htmlwilliamglenn said:
She's deluded or disingenuous. Even the most optimistic can't seriously expect the UK to leapfrog Germany and Japan (unless they plan to do it by importing millions more people).TCPoliticalBetting said:Andrea Leadsom -"The UK is the world 's fifth biggest economy, the best performing in Western Europe, and there is the expectation that we will soon leapfrog over Germany and Japan to climb the global league tables even further...."
Suggesting that we could or should aim to overhaul Germany and Japan in absolute GDP is not compatible with any kind of mainstream view of immigration as it could only be achieved by massively increasing the population.0 -
Gove " As a minister I’ve seen hundreds of new EU rules cross my desk, none of which were requested by the UK Parliament, none of which I or any other British politician could alter in any way and none of which made us freer, richer or fairer."taffys said:
Stunning, stunning letter.Plato_Says said:Text
http://order-order.com/2016/02/20/read-gove-statement-in-full/Casino_Royale said:
Link?TheScreamingEagles said:Gove giving a very good speech, and also makes it easier to heal the Tory party.
What does that say about the judgement of the Ministers who wish to Remain?0 -
I'd like michael gove to explain how the eu stops us building the houses we need. We've managed that all by ourselves. If that's one of his three examples, along with keeping failing steelworks open (does the name ian MacGregor mean anything to him) then leave is dining on equally thin gruel.0
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I may be wrong, but I'd guess he's almost totally unknown among the wider populace. Agree he is a good catch. Will he be used effectively?Richard_Tyndall said:
Frank Field is hardly a maverick unknown. He is one of the most well respected MPs in the House by all sides. I think it would probably be difficult to find a current Labour MP who was considered more centre ground.SouthamObserver said:
Not precisely. You also need to factor in the PM and the Chancellor, plus a number of other cabinet ministers. All Leave have so far are right wingers, a few maverick, unknown Labour backbenchers and George Galloway. They are not speaking to the centre ground.MP_SE said:
Works both ways.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Precisely, this isn't rocket science and yet there's a massive blind spot it seems for some.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tony Blair, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Celebrity Luvvies, Goldman Sachs, etc., etc.
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I think you are over estimating how much attention the general public pay to politics.Richard_Tyndall said:
Frank Field is hardly a maverick unknown. He is one of the most well respected MPs in the House by all sides. I think it would probably be difficult to find a current Labour MP who was considered more centre ground.SouthamObserver said:
Not precisely. You also need to factor in the PM and the Chancellor, plus a number of other cabinet ministers. All Leave have so far are right wingers, a few maverick, unknown Labour backbenchers and George Galloway. They are not speaking to the centre ground.MP_SE said:
Works both ways.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Precisely, this isn't rocket science and yet there's a massive blind spot it seems for some.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tony Blair, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Celebrity Luvvies, Goldman Sachs, etc., etc.0 -
Seemed a fair question to me, which you haven't answered.SouthamObserver said:
That's the way to win people over to your cause!!nigel4england said:
Are you swayed by who supports what, or have you got a brain that thinks for itself?SouthamObserver said:
It will. Although Remain also have Cameron, Osborne and a few others too. Who are the Leave equivalents?Casino_Royale said:
But if Martin McGuiness, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn, Alex Salmond, Emma Thompson, Eddie Izzard, Nick Clegg, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, the Big Banks and the CBI are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I am sure Dominic Cummings will be gratefulPlato_Says said:First donation to VoteLeave from me made.
HYUFD said:Now the referendum campaign has been called you can join the campaigns here:
If you are for Remain
Britain Stronger in Europe
http://www.strongerin.co.uk/#AZMixIxuWkXxbtWu.97
If you are for Leave
Vote Leave
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/
Get Britain Out
http://getbritainout.org/
Grassroots Out
http://grassrootsout.co.uk/0 -
I haven't seen much comment on the timing of the referendum being aligned with the Euro 2016 tournament. Is there any historical polling data pointing to a surge of Europhilia coinciding with the event? It wouldn't be surprising.0
-
Indeed.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think all it proves in the end is that you can't make such generalisations.Roger said:Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
I know many well-educated people who are very enthusiastic about the EU, whilst I and others equally intelligent are eurosceptic. And the same can be said for the general population - whether 'into politics' or not - whether you're in favour or not of our EU membership is not readily determined by your job, your wealth, your class, your education etc. This issue more than most seems to be not part of the traditional right-left spectrum (despite what many Remainers will no doubt insist, suggesting that only loonies on the far right or far left support Leaving).
Leave do need to get more prominent supporters from the centre ground, though perhaps it will be strength not to have New Labour/Blairite types.
The big difference will be if Boris comes over to the Leave camp, even better if he takes a prominent role. If so, the referendum campaign being held when it is - just after he leaves the Mayorality but before appointment to the Cabinet - is ideal for him.0 -
Ahemwilliamglenn said:I haven't seen much comment on the timing of the referendum being aligned with the Euro 2016 tournament. Is there any historical polling data pointing to a surge of Europhilia coinciding with the event? It wouldn't be surprising.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/11/15/another-reason-why-cameron-shouldnt-hold-the-referendum-next-june/0 -
At least half of this site are rightwing Tories or UKIP backers so it is hardly surprising they back Leave! However OGH, the founder of this site, will be backing Remain as will Alistair Meeks, SO, Surbiton, Richard N, Philip Thompson, Danny565 and a number of others, including myselfRoger said:Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.0 -
It's difficult to see how the Tory carpet won't be completely covered in blood when this thing finishes. In fact the idea that the ministers in favour of leaving might stay in office until the referendum is equally unlikely.
The PM is out if Leave wins. No question. He's just spent all his political capital fighting for Remain. Under those circumstances even Mother Theresa would fire theses bastards and Cameron isn't noted for his loyalty to those who rub him up the wrong way0 -
I'm undecided.HYUFD said:
At least half of this site are rightwing Tories or UKIP backers so it is hardly surprising they back Leave! However OGH, the founder of this site, will be backing Remain as will Alistair Meeks, SO and a number of others, including myselfRoger said:Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
0 -
I am certainly influenced by what other people think and say. And if someone implies I have not got a brain I am less inclined to give them and their views the time of day. I suspect I may not be alone in that!nigel4england said:
Seemed a fair question to me, which you haven't answered.SouthamObserver said:
That's the way to win people over to your cause!!nigel4england said:
Are you swayed by who supports what, or have you got a brain that thinks for itself?SouthamObserver said:
It will. Although Remain also have Cameron, Osborne and a few others too. Who are the Leave equivalents?Casino_Royale said:
But if Martin McGuiness, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn, Alex Salmond, Emma Thompson, Eddie Izzard, Nick Clegg, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, the Big Banks and the CBI are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
0 -
I have a feeling that Gove is one of the few ministers/secretaries of state who actually does proper ministerial/departmental work (ie reading his papers, understanding the issues, not letting his civil servants do all the work, etc). He's a good egg.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Gove " As a minister I’ve seen hundreds of new EU rules cross my desk, none of which were requested by the UK Parliament, none of which I or any other British politician could alter in any way and none of which made us freer, richer or fairer."taffys said:
Stunning, stunning letter.Plato_Says said:Text
http://order-order.com/2016/02/20/read-gove-statement-in-full/Casino_Royale said:
Link?TheScreamingEagles said:Gove giving a very good speech, and also makes it easier to heal the Tory party.
What does that say about the judgement of the Ministers who wish to Remain?0 -
Can Leave win without Boris? You don't seem to think so.CornishBlue said:
Indeed.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think all it proves in the end is that you can't make such generalisations.Roger said:Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
I know many well-educated people who are very enthusiastic about the EU, whilst I and others equally intelligent are eurosceptic. And the same can be said for the general population - whether 'into politics' or not - whether you're in favour or not of our EU membership is not readily determined by your job, your wealth, your class, your education etc. This issue more than most seems to be not part of the traditional right-left spectrum (despite what many Remainers will no doubt insist, suggesting that only loonies on the far right or far left support Leaving).
Leave do need to get more prominent supporters from the centre ground, though perhaps it will be strength not to have New Labour/Blairite types.
The big difference will be if Boris comes over to the Leave camp, even better if he takes a prominent role. If so, the referendum campaign being held when it is - just after he leaves the Mayorality but before appointment to the Cabinet - is ideal for him.
I repeat my expectation that Leave will win England outside the metropolitan areas, but lose overall. Then the real fun will start.
0 -
You mean like how the AV referendum was all about having the 'centre ground' politicians ?SouthamObserver said:
It's all about the centre ground. Who are the Leave side's centre ground politicians?another_richard said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Osborne, Clegg, Corbyn, Brown, Blair, Miliband, Mandelson, Kinnock and Gerry Adams are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
You'll be talking about the 'progressive majority' next.
0 -
Denmark won the '92 european championships 3 weeks after voting no to Maastricht in a referendum. Led to the famous 'if you can't join them, beat them' quote from the Danish pm.williamglenn said:I haven't seen much comment on the timing of the referendum being aligned with the Euro 2016 tournament. Is there any historical polling data pointing to a surge of Europhilia coinciding with the event? It wouldn't be surprising.
0 -
Er, not really. If our GDP per capita rises considerably above Germany's and Japan's then we wouldn't need as large a population as them to equal/overtake in total GDP. (Obviously.)williamglenn said:
Yes, increasing GDP per capita is a good goal and should be the number that the political debate hinges on, not absolute GDP.TCPoliticalBetting said:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/george-osborne-uk-could-be-richer-than-america-by-2030-9979231.htmlwilliamglenn said:
She's deluded or disingenuous. Even the most optimistic can't seriously expect the UK to leapfrog Germany and Japan (unless they plan to do it by importing millions more people).TCPoliticalBetting said:Andrea Leadsom -"The UK is the world 's fifth biggest economy, the best performing in Western Europe, and there is the expectation that we will soon leapfrog over Germany and Japan to climb the global league tables even further...."
Suggesting that we could or should aim to overhaul Germany and Japan in absolute GDP is not compatible with any kind of mainstream view of immigration as it could only be achieved by massively increasing the population.
As for population - Japan's is falling and Germany's natural population is falling, and I don't think millions of randoms from the Middle East are going to contribute much to their economy.0 -
Well where you eventually go will be interesting on how the campaign is progressinganother_richard said:
I'm undecided.HYUFD said:
At least half of this site are rightwing Tories or UKIP backers so it is hardly surprising they back Leave! However OGH, the founder of this site, will be backing Remain as will Alistair Meeks, SO and a number of others, including myselfRoger said:Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.0 -
Prescient as always.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ahemwilliamglenn said:I haven't seen much comment on the timing of the referendum being aligned with the Euro 2016 tournament. Is there any historical polling data pointing to a surge of Europhilia coinciding with the event? It wouldn't be surprising.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/11/15/another-reason-why-cameron-shouldnt-hold-the-referendum-next-june/
I disagree with the lead article though. It will be a strong positive for Remain. The media will have the perfect excuse to run feel-good 'let's stay together' content with all their journalists decamped to France. 0 -
Cameron and Osborne are detested by vast numbers of people. Just as Mandelson and Clegg are.SouthamObserver said:
It will. Although Remain also have Cameron, Osborne and a few others too. Who are the Leave equivalents?Casino_Royale said:
But if Martin McGuiness, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn, Alex Salmond, Emma Thompson, Eddie Izzard, Nick Clegg, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, the Big Banks and the CBI are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
Both sides are going to have people detested by someone.
0 -
If Leave can ever agree on the way forwardMarkHopkins said:HYUFD said:I have now joined the Britain Stronger in Europe mailing list, as far as I can see there is only 1 main Remain campaign, but 3 to choose from for you Leavers!
Sums up the whole proposition: If we Remain then we have no choice but to be stuck in the EU, but if we Leave there are many options open to us.0 -
The 'better educated' are white collar people with enough education to swallow wholesale a set of ready-prepared bien pensant centre left stances from The Guardian, but not educated enough to actually question them.Roger said:Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
0 -
I don't the think many Scots voted the way they did out of love of Cameron / Osborneanother_richard said:
Cameron and Osborne are detested by vast numbers of people. Just as Mandelson and Clegg are.SouthamObserver said:
It will. Although Remain also have Cameron, Osborne and a few others too. Who are the Leave equivalents?Casino_Royale said:
But if Martin McGuiness, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn, Alex Salmond, Emma Thompson, Eddie Izzard, Nick Clegg, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, the Big Banks and the CBI are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
Both sides are going to have people detested by someone.0 -
What do you mean "the real fun will start?" - we English are not like the Scots - we respect the fact that this is a UK-wide referendum and all England is part of that UK. What do you expect to happen? Secession of "non-metropolitan England" from the UK? A split of the Tory party between "metro Conservatives" and "shire Tories"? No.Innocent_Abroad said:
Can Leave win without Boris? You don't seem to think so.CornishBlue said:
Indeed.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think all it proves in the end is that you can't make such generalisations.Roger said:Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
I know many well-educated people who are very enthusiastic about the EU, whilst I and others equally intelligent are eurosceptic. And the same can be said for the general population - whether 'into politics' or not - whether you're in favour or not of our EU membership is not readily determined by your job, your wealth, your class, your education etc. This issue more than most seems to be not part of the traditional right-left spectrum (despite what many Remainers will no doubt insist, suggesting that only loonies on the far right or far left support Leaving).
Leave do need to get more prominent supporters from the centre ground, though perhaps it will be strength not to have New Labour/Blairite types.
The big difference will be if Boris comes over to the Leave camp, even better if he takes a prominent role. If so, the referendum campaign being held when it is - just after he leaves the Mayorality but before appointment to the Cabinet - is ideal for him.
I repeat my expectation that Leave will win England outside the metropolitan areas, but lose overall. Then the real fun will start.
As for Boris - if he's with the Remain camp then I'm pretty certain Remain will win. If he joins Leave then it's more like 50/50. 0 -
They are. But from where I sit the Leave side seems to have a much narrower appeal. We'll see, I guess.another_richard said:
Cameron and Osborne are detested by vast numbers of people. Just as Mandelson and Clegg are.SouthamObserver said:
It will. Although Remain also have Cameron, Osborne and a few others too. Who are the Leave equivalents?Casino_Royale said:
But if Martin McGuiness, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn, Alex Salmond, Emma Thompson, Eddie Izzard, Nick Clegg, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, the Big Banks and the CBI are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
Both sides are going to have people detested by someone.
0 -
Is there anywhere we can read the text of the deal?
Don't worry, found this:
The key points of the deal are:
An "emergency brake" on migrants' in-work benefits for four years when there are "exceptional" levels of migration. The UK will be able to operate the brake for seven years
Child benefit for the children of EU migrants living overseas will now be paid at a rate based on the cost of living in their home country - applicable immediately for new arrivals and from 2020 for the 34,000 existing claimants
The amending of EU treaties to state explicitly that references to the requirement to seek ever-closer union "do not apply to the United Kingdom", meaning Britain "can never be forced into political integration"
The ability for the UK to enact "an emergency safeguard" to protect the City of London, to stop UK firms being forced to relocate into Europe and to ensure British businesses do not face "discrimination" for being outside the eurozone
That's the deal?0 -
Brilliant statement from Gove - he towers above the two cowards at the helm of government.0
-
The "better educated" that is flawed as it Is based on uni degree / not uni degree. But we know that across demographics the % with / without is heavily skewed (and doesn't really reflect reality on intelligence / knowledge).0
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Boris is a busted flush. Gove has made a stand on principle; Boris is still calculating whst his best move is. There's no conviction there, just ambition. And it's become too obvious.CornishBlue said:
What do you mean "the real fun will start?" - we English are not like the Scots - we respect the fact that this is a UK-wide referendum and all England is part of that UK. What do you expect to happen? Secession of "non-metropolitan England" from the UK? A split of the Tory party between "metro Conservatives" and "shire Tories"? No.Innocent_Abroad said:
Can Leave win without Boris? You don't seem to think so.CornishBlue said:
Indeed.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think all it proves in the end is that you can't make such generalisations.Roger said:Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
I know many well-educated people who are very enthusiastic about the EU, whilst I and others equally intelligent are eurosceptic. And the same can be said for the general population - whether 'into politics' or not - whether you're in favour or not of our EU membership is not readily determined by your job, your wealth, your class, your education etc. This issue more than most seems to be not part of the traditional right-left spectrum (despite what many Remainers will no doubt insist, suggesting that only loonies on the far right or far left support Leaving).
Leave do need to get more prominent supporters from the centre ground, though perhaps it will be strength not to have New Labour/Blairite types.
The big difference will be if Boris comes over to the Leave camp, even better if he takes a prominent role. If so, the referendum campaign being held when it is - just after he leaves the Mayorality but before appointment to the Cabinet - is ideal for him.
I repeat my expectation that Leave will win England outside the metropolitan areas, but lose overall. Then the real fun will start.
As for Boris - if he's with the Remain camp then I'm pretty certain Remain will win. If he joins Leave then it's more like 50/50.
0 -
Roier is confusing Well Educated being a running partner with common sense..he is living proof that they are not always a combo..0
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In a binary choice which isn't strictly left right is it more about getting 'blocks' of voters and having people who appeal to one of those blocks. Another point where Cameron has been lucky is corbyn winning the labour leadership and the eu being he only foreign policy issue on which he is willing to concede to the labour mainstream (because he has no interest in issues that actually affect the day to day lives of ordinary people)another_richard said:
Cameron and Osborne are detested by vast numbers of people. Just as Mandelson and Clegg are.SouthamObserver said:
It will. Although Remain also have Cameron, Osborne and a few others too. Who are the Leave equivalents?Casino_Royale said:
But if Martin McGuiness, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn, Alex Salmond, Emma Thompson, Eddie Izzard, Nick Clegg, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, the Big Banks and the CBI are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:
Both sides are going to have people detested by someone.
The far left - which perhaps appeals to 10 or 15% of voters - has always been an important part of the anti eu block - at least since Benn. The anti crowd currently has two of the most right wing labour mps (hoey and field) plus galloway who appears to have finally lost all left support. If corbyn hadn't been elected leader, him, McDonnell and what is now the momentum crowd probably would have been in the no camp.0 -
Can Remain really get away with their arguments about this new deal and immigration?
It just does not look credible. Will the Labour voters in the working class really stick with the bulk of their MPs and vote for Remain? The ones reliant on state benefits and state housing etc feel the pressures of immigration more than any other sector. There may even be a degree of voter strikes taking place.
Last month 46% of all voters listed it as their biggest issue and 57% of the over 65's.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3691/Economist-Ipsos-MORI-January-2016-Issues-index.aspx
The ineptness of the Dad's army GO campaign etc just may not matter when set against some fundamentals.0 -
I hope you don't mind if I question the factual accuracy of this. Sinn Fein have been anti-EU all my adult life (and all theirs, no doubt). Their rationale is that no body other than the legitimate[1] Irish government should have sovereignity over an united Ireland. They are remarkably consistent[2] in their views and are consistently abstentionist in their opinions of what the UK should do (other that to leave Ireland and cease sovereignity claims).Casino_Royale said:Martin McGuiness, Gerry Adams..are all for [REMAIN]
Consequently claims of a pro-EU stance by Sinn Fein personnel are prima facie highly dubious.
I know that the Nationalist population in Northern Ireland is strongly REMAIN (because of the border implications of LEAVE). I know that Sinn Fein warned London about the timing of the refrendum so not to clash with other elections. But I cannot find a quote by Adams nor by McGuinness that the UK should REMAIN.
So. Source please?
[1] the definition of which is one of the sources of dispute...oh, ask your mother
[2] given that criticism for heterdoxy include gunshot wounds, this is unsurprising
0 -
Quite right Cornish. Let the trend be your friend.CornishBlue said:
Er, not really. If our GDP per capita rises considerably above Germany's and Japan's then we wouldn't need as large a population as them to equal/overtake in total GDP. (Obviously.)williamglenn said:
Yes, increasing GDP per capita is a good goal and should be the number that the political debate hinges on, not absolute GDP.TCPoliticalBetting said:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/george-osborne-uk-could-be-richer-than-america-by-2030-9979231.htmlwilliamglenn said:
She's deluded or disingenuous. Even the most optimistic can't seriously expect the UK to leapfrog Germany and Japan (unless they plan to do it by importing millions more people).TCPoliticalBetting said:Andrea Leadsom -"The UK is the world 's fifth biggest economy, the best performing in Western Europe, and there is the expectation that we will soon leapfrog over Germany and Japan to climb the global league tables even further...."
Suggesting that we could or should aim to overhaul Germany and Japan in absolute GDP is not compatible with any kind of mainstream view of immigration as it could only be achieved by massively increasing the population.
As for population - Japan's is falling and Germany's natural population is falling, and I don't think millions of randoms from the Middle East are going to contribute much to their economy.
0 -
If the English respected their UK membership then they wouldn't mind a Government provided with a majority by the SNP. But we both know that the English do mind that - probably more than they mind the outcome of the Euro-referendum. As for a Tory split, you have every right to hope not, and perhaps I should hope not too - I wouldn't trust a Kipper-lite Tory party to respect the constitutional rights of those to the left of it.CornishBlue said:
What do you mean "the real fun will start?" - we English are not like the Scots - we respect the fact that this is a UK-wide referendum and all England is part of that UK. What do you expect to happen? Secession of "non-metropolitan England" from the UK? A split of the Tory party between "metro Conservatives" and "shire Tories"? No.Innocent_Abroad said:
Can Leave win without Boris? You don't seem to think so.CornishBlue said:
Indeed.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think all it proves in the end is that you can't make such generalisations.Roger said:Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
I know many well-educated people who are very enthusiastic about the EU, whilst I and others equally intelligent are eurosceptic. And the same can be said for the general population - whether 'into politics' or not - whether you're in favour or not of our EU membership is not readily determined by your job, your wealth, your class, your education etc. This issue more than most seems to be not part of the traditional right-left spectrum (despite what many Remainers will no doubt insist, suggesting that only loonies on the far right or far left support Leaving).
Leave do need to get more prominent supporters from the centre ground, though perhaps it will be strength not to have New Labour/Blairite types.
The big difference will be if Boris comes over to the Leave camp, even better if he takes a prominent role. If so, the referendum campaign being held when it is - just after he leaves the Mayorality but before appointment to the Cabinet - is ideal for him.
I repeat my expectation that Leave will win England outside the metropolitan areas, but lose overall. Then the real fun will start.
As for Boris - if he's with the Remain camp then I'm pretty certain Remain will win. If he joins Leave then it's more like 50/50.
0 -
I predict 52%-48% Remain, with the young and middle class, London and Scotland and NI voting In, pensioners, the working class and non-metropolitan England voting Out. Labour, LD and SNP voters will back In on the whole, UKIP voters Out, Tory voters will narrowly back Leave or be split 50-50TCPoliticalBetting said:Can Remain really get away with their arguments about this new deal and immigration?
It just does not look credible. Will the Labour voters in the working class really stick with the bulk of their MPs and vote for Remain? The ones reliant on state benefits and state housing etc feel the pressures of immigration more than any other sector. There may even be a degree of voter strikes taking place.
Last month 46% of all voters listed it as their biggest issue and 57% of the over 65's.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3691/Economist-Ipsos-MORI-January-2016-Issues-index.aspx
The ineptness of the Dad's army GO campaign etc just may not matter when set against some fundamentals.0 -
We all risk seeing things too much from our own perspective.SouthamObserver said:
They are. But from where I sit the Leave side seems to have a much narrower appeal. We'll see, I guess.
There is also the different dynamics in a referendum to a FPTP election:
30% Left Out
40% Centre In
30% Right Out
is great for the 'centre ground' in a FPTP election but not in a referendum.
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Trouble is most of us want to know which of the many post-leave options we will taking BEFORE we vote.MarkHopkins said:HYUFD said:I have now joined the Britain Stronger in Europe mailing list, as far as I can see there is only 1 main Remain campaign, but 3 to choose from for you Leavers!
Sums up the whole proposition: If we Remain then we have no choice but to be stuck in the EU, but if we Leave there are many options open to us.0 -
Let me cheer you up further Roggie dear (luvvie talk). You are right and will have a win win in that if Leave wins Cameron/Osborne are out and if Remain wins the Conservative party will move to get Cameron replaced. Made your day?Roger said:It's difficult to see how the Tory carpet won't be completely covered in blood when this thing finishes. In fact the idea that the ministers in favour of leaving might stay in office until the referendum is equally unlikely.
The PM is out if Leave wins. No question. He's just spent all his political capital fighting for Remain. Under those circumstances even Mother Theresa would fire theses bastards and Cameron isn't noted for his loyalty to those who rub him up the wrong way
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It would have been interesting to see how Gove would have negotiated.TGOHF said:Brilliant statement from Gove - he towers above the two cowards at the helm of government.
But convictions and courage are two attributes which rule him out from negotiating on behalf of the UK.
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Nice try but we all know that those will not be the people fronting the REMAIN campaign. LEAVE on the other hand...Casino_Royale said:
But if Martin McGuiness, Gerry Adams, John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn, Alex Salmond, Emma Thompson, Eddie Izzard, Nick Clegg, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, the Big Banks and the CBI are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a matter of endorsement. But if Piri Patel, Chris Grayling, Nigel Farage and George Galloway are all for something, it will make a fair few people wonder whether the other side might have a point.isam said:
Maybe some people will think for themselves? I thought only children needed a superstar endorsement to tell them right from wrongSouthamObserver said:
Hmmm, lots of right wing Tories, Nigel Farage and George Galloway. A compelling crowd for the soft middle.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Pensioners vote about twice the level of turnout that the young do.HYUFD said:
I predict 52%-48% Remain, with the young and middle class, London and Scotland and NI voting In, pensioners, the working class and non-metropolitan England voting Out. Labour, LD and SNP voters will back In on the whole, UKIP voters Out, Tory voters will narrowly back Leave or be split 50-50TCPoliticalBetting said:Can Remain really get away with their arguments about this new deal and immigration?
It just does not look credible. Will the Labour voters in the working class really stick with the bulk of their MPs and vote for Remain? The ones reliant on state benefits and state housing etc feel the pressures of immigration more than any other sector. There may even be a degree of voter strikes taking place.
Last month 46% of all voters listed it as their biggest issue and 57% of the over 65's.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3691/Economist-Ipsos-MORI-January-2016-Issues-index.aspx
The ineptness of the Dad's army GO campaign etc just may not matter when set against some fundamentals.
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50% Tories plus ukip = 30%. Would have thought out needed a strong lead amongst 2015 Tories even to get close. Obviously turnout will be an issue given age breakdown of opinion.HYUFD said:
I predict 52%-48% Remain, with the young and middle class, London and Scotland and NI voting In, pensioners, the working class and non-metropolitan England voting Out. Labour, LD and SNP voters will back In on the whole, UKIP voters Out, Tory voters will narrowly back Leave or be split 50-50TCPoliticalBetting said:Can Remain really get away with their arguments about this new deal and immigration?
It just does not look credible. Will the Labour voters in the working class really stick with the bulk of their MPs and vote for Remain? The ones reliant on state benefits and state housing etc feel the pressures of immigration more than any other sector. There may even be a degree of voter strikes taking place.
Last month 46% of all voters listed it as their biggest issue and 57% of the over 65's.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3691/Economist-Ipsos-MORI-January-2016-Issues-index.aspx
The ineptness of the Dad's army GO campaign etc just may not matter when set against some fundamentals.
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If Leave wins Cameron and Osborne are gone and a BREXIT backer takes the leadership. If Remain wins Osborne is most likely to succeed although he will face a strong challenge if the referendum is close from a Leave backer. If Boris backs Remain he is likely finished as a challenger, Outers will want one of their own to challenge Osborne. If Boris backs Leave however he will be very much in contention and would become the likely Leave candidate against Osborne. That is why I think Boris could back LeaveTCPoliticalBetting said:
Let me cheer you up further Roggie dear (luvvie talk). You are right and will have a win win in that if Leave wins Cameron/Osborne are out and if Remain wins the Conservative party will move to get Cameron replaced. Made your day?Roger said:It's difficult to see how the Tory carpet won't be completely covered in blood when this thing finishes. In fact the idea that the ministers in favour of leaving might stay in office until the referendum is equally unlikely.
The PM is out if Leave wins. No question. He's just spent all his political capital fighting for Remain. Under those circumstances even Mother Theresa would fire theses bastards and Cameron isn't noted for his loyalty to those who rub him up the wrong way0 -
Conviction - good. Courage - good. Negotiation - bad?another_richard said:
It would have been interesting to see how Gove would have negotiated.TGOHF said:Brilliant statement from Gove - he towers above the two cowards at the helm of government.
But convictions and courage are two attributes which rule him out from negotiating on behalf of the UK.
I get the sense that many Peebies see a UK PM (irrespective of personality) as Oliver Twist asking for more (or less) in front of Mr Bumble the Euro-Beadle.
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Firstly, there is no "membership" to the UK. The UK is a unitary country. England, Scotland, Ireland all ceased to be sovereign states upon union.Innocent_Abroad said:
If the English respected their UK membership then they wouldn't mind a Government provided with a majority by the SNP. But we both know that the English do mind thatCornishBlue said:
What do you mean "the real fun will start?" - we English are not like the Scots - we respect the fact that this is a UK-wide referendum and all England is part of that UK. What do you expect to happen? Secession of "non-metropolitan England" from the UK? A split of the Tory party between "metro Conservatives" and "shire Tories"? No.Innocent_Abroad said:
Can Leave win without Boris? You don't seem to think so.CornishBlue said:
Indeed.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think all it proves in the end is that you can't make such generalisations.Roger said:Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
I know many well-educated people who are very enthusiastic about the EU, whilst I and others equally intelligent are eurosceptic. And the same can be said for the general population - whether 'into politics' or not - whether you're in favour or not of our EU membership is not readily determined by your job, your wealth, your class, your education etc. This issue more than most seems to be not part of the traditional right-left spectrum (despite what many Remainers will no doubt insist, suggesting that only loonies on the far right or far left support Leaving).
Leave do need to get more prominent supporters from the centre ground, though perhaps it will be strength not to have New Labour/Blairite types.
The big difference will be if Boris comes over to the Leave camp, even better if he takes a prominent role. If so, the referendum campaign being held when it is - just after he leaves the Mayorality but before appointment to the Cabinet - is ideal for him.
I repeat my expectation that Leave will win England outside the metropolitan areas, but lose overall. Then the real fun will start.
As for Boris - if he's with the Remain camp then I'm pretty certain Remain will win. If he joins Leave then it's more like 50/50.
Secondly, the reason so many English didn't like the prospect of the SNP in government is because they don't like the SNP and their politics/policies, not because they didn't want Scots MPs in government.0 -
I would also like to know what will happen over the next 10 years if we Remain. Will the euro fall apart? Will Spain or Italy default? How hampered will the City be through EC rules and regulation? Will Turkey join the EC? Will the EC get 2 or 3 million illegal migrants each year? etc etcOllyT said:
Trouble is most of us want to know which of the many post-leave options we will taking BEFORE we vote.MarkHopkins said:HYUFD said:I have now joined the Britain Stronger in Europe mailing list, as far as I can see there is only 1 main Remain campaign, but 3 to choose from for you Leavers!
Sums up the whole proposition: If we Remain then we have no choice but to be stuck in the EU, but if we Leave there are many options open to us.
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Most of the Left will back In, reluctantlyanother_richard said:
We all risk seeing things too much from our own perspective.SouthamObserver said:
They are. But from where I sit the Leave side seems to have a much narrower appeal. We'll see, I guess.
There is also the different dynamics in a referendum to a FPTP election:
30% Left Out
40% Centre In
30% Right Out
is great for the 'centre ground' in a FPTP election but not in a referendum.0 -
It would be interesting to know which Conservative MPs fell into these camps:
1) LEAVE - announced before the deal
2) REMAIN - announced before the deal
3) undecided before the deal LEAVE after the deal
4) undecided before the deal REMAIN after the deal
Those in the first three groups are worthy of respect.
Those in the fourth look like various combinations of liars, careerists and cowards.
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The middle class vote much more often than the working class too so that cancels out Leave's lead with the Old. At the general election and in Indyref the Tories and NO benefited from the backing of the middle class and the old who both had higher turnout, in EUref the middle class will be for Remain, the old for Leave, so neither side has a great advantage on turnoutTCPoliticalBetting said:
Pensioners vote about twice the level of turnout that the young do.HYUFD said:
I predict 52%-48% Remain, with the young and middle class, London and Scotland and NI voting In, pensioners, the working class and non-metropolitan England voting Out. Labour, LD and SNP voters will back In on the whole, UKIP voters Out, Tory voters will narrowly back Leave or be split 50-50TCPoliticalBetting said:Can Remain really get away with their arguments about this new deal and immigration?
It just does not look credible. Will the Labour voters in the working class really stick with the bulk of their MPs and vote for Remain? The ones reliant on state benefits and state housing etc feel the pressures of immigration more than any other sector. There may even be a degree of voter strikes taking place.
Last month 46% of all voters listed it as their biggest issue and 57% of the over 65's.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3691/Economist-Ipsos-MORI-January-2016-Issues-index.aspx
The ineptness of the Dad's army GO campaign etc just may not matter when set against some fundamentals.0 -
If the cap fits. Seems an accurate portrayal. Please sir can I pass my own law in who I pay welfare to?Innocent_Abroad said:
I get the sense that many Peebies see a UK PM (irrespective of personality) as Oliver Twist asking for more (or less) in front of Mr Bumble the Euro-Beadle.another_richard said:
It would have been interesting to see how Gove would have negotiated.TGOHF said:Brilliant statement from Gove - he towers above the two cowards at the helm of government.
But convictions and courage are two attributes which rule him out from negotiating on behalf of the UK.
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Or to put it another way: Boris will back LEAVE because he thinks it's good for his career. Gove will back LEAVE because he thinks it's good for his countryHYUFD said:
If Leave wins Cameron and Osborne are gone and a BREXIT backer takes the leadership. If Remain wins Osborne is most likely to succeed although he will face a strong challenge if the referendum is close from a Leave backer. If Boris backs Remain he is likely finished as a challenger, Outers will want one of their own to challenge Osborne. If Boris backs Leave however he will be very much in contention and would become the likely Leave candidate against Osborne. That is why I think Boris could back LeaveTCPoliticalBetting said:
Let me cheer you up further Roggie dear (luvvie talk). You are right and will have a win win in that if Leave wins Cameron/Osborne are out and if Remain wins the Conservative party will move to get Cameron replaced. Made your day?Roger said:It's difficult to see how the Tory carpet won't be completely covered in blood when this thing finishes. In fact the idea that the ministers in favour of leaving might stay in office until the referendum is equally unlikely.
The PM is out if Leave wins. No question. He's just spent all his political capital fighting for Remain. Under those circumstances even Mother Theresa would fire theses bastards and Cameron isn't noted for his loyalty to those who rub him up the wrong way
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Confounding, indeed.FrancisUrquhart said:The "better educated" that is flawed as it Is based on uni degree / not uni degree. But we know that across demographics the % with / without is heavily skewed (and doesn't really reflect reality on intelligence / knowledge).
But would be interesting to look at age cohorts (e.g., only middle-aged people, or pensioners) and see what the graduate/non-graduate effect is.0 -
About 25% of Labour and SNP voters, and a few LDs will also back Leave so that takes it to 40%, the more Tories back Leave the closer it becomesTom said:
50% Tories plus ukip = 30%. Would have thought out needed a strong lead amongst 2015 Tories even to get close. Obviously turnout will be an issue given age breakdown of opinion.HYUFD said:
I predict 52%-48% Remain, with the young and middle class, London and Scotland and NI voting In, pensioners, the working class and non-metropolitan England voting Out. Labour, LD and SNP voters will back In on the whole, UKIP voters Out, Tory voters will narrowly back Leave or be split 50-50TCPoliticalBetting said:Can Remain really get away with their arguments about this new deal and immigration?
It just does not look credible. Will the Labour voters in the working class really stick with the bulk of their MPs and vote for Remain? The ones reliant on state benefits and state housing etc feel the pressures of immigration more than any other sector. There may even be a degree of voter strikes taking place.
Last month 46% of all voters listed it as their biggest issue and 57% of the over 65's.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3691/Economist-Ipsos-MORI-January-2016-Issues-index.aspx
The ineptness of the Dad's army GO campaign etc just may not matter when set against some fundamentals.0 -
Will the euro fall apart? NoTCPoliticalBetting said:
I would also like to know what will happen over the next 10 years if we Remain. Will the euro fall apart? Will Spain or Italy default? How hampered will the City be through EC rules and regulation? Will Turkey join the EC? Will the EC get 2 or 3 million illegal migrants each year? etc etcOllyT said:
Trouble is most of us want to know which of the many post-leave options we will taking BEFORE we vote.MarkHopkins said:HYUFD said:I have now joined the Britain Stronger in Europe mailing list, as far as I can see there is only 1 main Remain campaign, but 3 to choose from for you Leavers!
Sums up the whole proposition: If we Remain then we have no choice but to be stuck in the EU, but if we Leave there are many options open to us.
Will Spain or Italy default? Unknown. Possible, certainly, but if they've lasted this long I assume the probability is low.
How hampered will the City be through EC rules and regulation? Unknown.
Will Turkey join the EC? No
Will the EC get 2 or 3 million illegal migrants each year? Yes
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True.viewcode said:
Or to put it another way: Boris will back LEAVE because he thinks it's good for his career. Gove will back LEAVE because he thinks it's good for his countryHYUFD said:
If Leave wins Cameron and Osborne are gone and a BREXIT backer takes the leadership. If Remain wins Osborne is most likely to succeed although he will face a strong challenge if the referendum is close from a Leave backer. If Boris backs Remain he is likely finished as a challenger, Outers will want one of their own to challenge Osborne. If Boris backs Leave however he will be very much in contention and would become the likely Leave candidate against Osborne. That is why I think Boris could back LeaveTCPoliticalBetting said:
Let me cheer you up further Roggie dear (luvvie talk). You are right and will have a win win in that if Leave wins Cameron/Osborne are out and if Remain wins the Conservative party will move to get Cameron replaced. Made your day?Roger said:It's difficult to see how the Tory carpet won't be completely covered in blood when this thing finishes. In fact the idea that the ministers in favour of leaving might stay in office until the referendum is equally unlikely.
The PM is out if Leave wins. No question. He's just spent all his political capital fighting for Remain. Under those circumstances even Mother Theresa would fire theses bastards and Cameron isn't noted for his loyalty to those who rub him up the wrong way
But frankly whatever Boris's motives, Leave need him.0 -
Negotiation is good but to do it well you must have convictions in which you believe and the courage to walk away if necessary.Innocent_Abroad said:
Conviction - good. Courage - good. Negotiation - bad?another_richard said:
It would have been interesting to see how Gove would have negotiated.TGOHF said:Brilliant statement from Gove - he towers above the two cowards at the helm of government.
But convictions and courage are two attributes which rule him out from negotiating on behalf of the UK.
I get the sense that many Peebies see a UK PM (irrespective of personality) as Oliver Twist asking for more (or less) in front of Mr Bumble the Euro-Beadle.
Without them the negotiation does turn into begging.
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