It's difficult to see how the Tory carpet won't be completely covered in blood when this thing finishes. In fact the idea that the ministers in favour of leaving might stay in office until the referendum is equally unlikely.
The PM is out if Leave wins. No question. He's just spent all his political capital fighting for Remain. Under those circumstances even Mother Theresa would fire theses bastards and Cameron isn't noted for his loyalty to those who rub him up the wrong way
Let me cheer you up further Roggie dear (luvvie talk). You are right and will have a win win in that if Leave wins Cameron/Osborne are out and if Remain wins the Conservative party will move to get Cameron replaced. Made your day?
If Leave wins Cameron and Osborne are gone and a BREXIT backer takes the leadership. If Remain wins Osborne is most likely to succeed although he will face a strong challenge if the referendum is close from a Leave backer. If Boris backs Remain he is likely finished as a challenger, Outers will want one of their own to challenge Osborne. If Boris backs Leave however he will be very much in contention and would become the likely Leave candidate against Osborne. That is why I think Boris could back Leave
Or to put it another way: Boris will back LEAVE because he thinks it's good for his career. Gove will back LEAVE because he thinks it's good for his country
Yes, Boris calculates what is good for Boris first and foremost
I have now joined the Britain Stronger in Europe mailing list, as far as I can see there is only 1 main Remain campaign, but 3 to choose from for you Leavers!
Sums up the whole proposition: If we Remain then we have no choice but to be stuck in the EU, but if we Leave there are many options open to us.
Trouble is most of us want to know which of the many post-leave options we will taking BEFORE we vote.
I would also like to know what will happen over the next 10 years if we Remain. Will the euro fall apart? Will Spain or Italy default? How hampered will the City be through EC rules and regulation? Will Turkey join the EC? Will the EC get 2 or 3 million illegal migrants each year? etc etc
I think the question is less whether the Euro will fail but how much will the EU have to integrate to keep it afloat?
If past experiences are any guide then the EU will do absolutely anything and everything to keep the Euro intact. This inevitably means far closer integration overall in the EU and it appears that through this agreement they have the means to do that without the UK having the ability to say no (short of leaving).
I have now joined the Britain Stronger in Europe mailing list, as far as I can see there is only 1 main Remain campaign, but 3 to choose from for you Leavers!
Sums up the whole proposition: If we Remain then we have no choice but to be stuck in the EU, but if we Leave there are many options open to us.
Trouble is most of us want to know which of the many post-leave options we will taking BEFORE we vote.
I would also like to know what will happen over the next 10 years if we Remain. Will the euro fall apart? Will Spain or Italy default? How hampered will the City be through EC rules and regulation? Will Turkey join the EC? Will the EC get 2 or 3 million illegal migrants each year? etc etc
Will the euro fall apart? No Will Spain or Italy default? Unknown. Possible, certainly, but if they've lasted this long I assume the probability is low. How hampered will the City be through EC rules and regulation? Unknown. Will Turkey join the EC? No Will the EC get 2 or 3 million illegal migrants each year? Yes
Why is the EU getting 2/3 million migrants every year a bad idea ? Europe needs population.
200 years ago Europeans migrated to all parts of the globe. At least, the new migrants are not killing the indigenous people as the Europeans did in America and Australia.
Boris in the Leave camp would be a mixed blessing for them. The campaign might end up being all about Boris and I've never been convinced if push came to shove that the public really view Boris as a potential future PM which might well be on the cards if Leave were to win. As it is there are opportunities for Tory outers both in and out of the cabinet to shine under the glare of constant exposure . Four months is a long time.
I have now joined the Britain Stronger in Europe mailing list, as far as I can see there is only 1 main Remain campaign, but 3 to choose from for you Leavers!
Sums up the whole proposition: If we Remain then we have no choice but to be stuck in the EU, but if we Leave there are many options open to us.
Trouble is most of us want to know which of the many post-leave options we will taking BEFORE we vote.
I would also like to know what will happen over the next 10 years if we Remain. Will the euro fall apart? Will Spain or Italy default? How hampered will the City be through EC rules and regulation? Will Turkey join the EC? Will the EC get 2 or 3 million illegal migrants each year? etc etc
Will the euro fall apart? No Will Spain or Italy default? Unknown. Possible, certainly, but if they've lasted this long I assume the probability is low. How hampered will the City be through EC rules and regulation? Unknown. Will Turkey join the EC? No Will the EC get 2 or 3 million illegal migrants each year? Yes
Why is the EU getting 2/3 million migrants every year a bad idea ? Europe needs population.
200 years ago Europeans migrated to all parts of the globe. At least, the new migrants are not killing the indigenous people as the Europeans did in America and Australia.
Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
I think all it proves in the end is that you can't make such generalisations.
Indeed.
I know many well-educated people who are very enthusiastic about the EU, whilst I and others equally intelligent are eurosceptic.Leave do need to get more prominent supporters from the centre ground, though perhaps it will be strength not to have New Labour/Blairite types.
The big difference will be if Boris comes over to the Leave camp, even better if he takes a prominent role. If so, the referendum campaign being held when it is - just after he leaves the Mayorality but before appointment to the Cabinet - is ideal for him.
Can Leave win without Boris? You don't seem to think so.
I repeat my expectation that Leave will win England outside the metropolitan areas, but lose overall. Then the real fun will start.
What do you mean "the real fun will start?" - we English are not like the Scots - we respect the fact that this is a UK-wide referendum and all England is part of that UK. What do you expect to happen? Secession of "non-metropolitan England" from the UK? A split of the Tory party between "metro Conservatives" and "shire Tories"? No.
As for Boris - if he's with the Remain camp then I'm pretty certain Remain will win. If he joins Leave then it's more like 50/50.
If the English respected their UK membership then they wouldn't mind a Government provided with a majority by the SNP. But we both know that the English do mind that
Firstly, there is no "membership" to the UK. The UK is a unitary country. England, Scotland, Ireland all ceased to be sovereign states upon union.
Secondly, the reason so many English didn't like the prospect of the SNP in government is because they don't like the SNP and their politics/policies, not because they didn't want Scots MPs in government.
If the UK is a unitary country, how come the Scots have a Parliament? (I know you wish they didn't.)
You don't like any policies/politics except your own - and I repeat: you regard anyone who disagrees with you as someone who ought to be hanged for treason.
Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
I think all it proves in the end is that you can't make such generalisations.
Indeed.
I know many well-educated people who are very enthusiastic about the EU, whilst I and others equally intelligent are eurosceptic. And the same can be said for the general population - whether 'into politics' or not - whether you're in favour or not of our EU membership is not readily determined by your job, your wealth, your class, your education etc. This issue more than most seems to be not part of the traditional right-left spectrum (despite what many Remainers will no doubt insist, suggesting that only loonies on the far right or far left support Leaving).
Leave do need to get more prominent supporters from the centre ground, though perhaps it will be strength not to have New Labour/Blairite types.
The big difference will be if Boris comes over to the Leave camp, even better if he takes a prominent role. If so, the referendum campaign being held when it is - just after he leaves the Mayorality but before appointment to the Cabinet - is ideal for him.
Can Leave win without Boris? You don't seem to think so.
I repeat my expectation that Leave will win England outside the metropolitan areas, but lose overall. Then the real fun will start.
What do y0/50.
If the
Firstly, there is no "membership" to the UK. The UK is a unitary country. England, Scotland, Ireland all ceased to be sovereign states upon union.
Secondly, the reason so many English didn't like the prospect of the SNP in government is because they don't like the SNP and their politics/policies, not because they didn't want Scots MPs in government.
Indeed. It would have been perfectly legitimate for the SNP to be a part of the UK government, or crucial to supporting whoever was forming that government. It was just worrying for many people given their stated policy is to break up the UK. Do some people have a problem with a government that would be reliant upon its Scottish MPs to have a majority? Certainly, some will. But by no means most, those who are able to distinguish between the idea of Scottish MPs being decisive and SNP MPs being decisive.
Boris in the Leave camp would be a mixed blessing for them. The campaign might end up being all about Boris and I've never been convinced if push came to shove that the public really view Boris as a potential future PM which might well be on the cards if Leave were to win. As it is there are opportunities for Tory outers both in and out of the cabinet to shine under the glare of constant exposure . Four months is a long time.
To misquote Lyndon Johnson, I'd rather have him in the LEAVE tent smelling of piss than in the REMAIN tent. I know he's popular, but...well, ew. Just ew.
I have now joined the Britain Stronger in Europe mailing list, as far as I can see there is only 1 main Remain campaign, but 3 to choose from for you Leavers!
Sums up the whole proposition: If we Remain then we have no choice but to be stuck in the EU, but if we Leave there are many options open to us.
Trouble is most of us want to know which of the many post-leave options we will taking BEFORE we vote.
Trouble is most of us want to know which of the many post-Remain options will be imposed on us BEFORE we vote.
Boris in the Leave camp would be a mixed blessing for them. The campaign might end up being all about Boris and I've never been convinced if push came to shove that the public really view Boris as a potential future PM which might well be on the cards if Leave were to win. As it is there are opportunities for Tory outers both in and out of the cabinet to shine under the glare of constant exposure . Four months is a long time.
This is an interesting point.
Lots of Outers have been afraid - for years! - that the Out campaign would become the Nigel Show, and that this would ultimately cost them victory.
Would the Boris Show really be such an improvement?
Ultimately, all partisan figures are polarising, and these days no one man or woman can cross a 50% threshold with the electorate. Admittedly Boris has some appeal outside traditional Tory demographics but that's in a "couple of percent" way, not a genuinely bipartisan way.
It has to be a team effort. A short-lived but necessary coalition.
That suggests you want team players on your side. Is that who Boris is?
Boris in the Leave camp would be a mixed blessing for them. The campaign might end up being all about Boris and I've never been convinced if push came to shove that the public really view Boris as a potential future PM which might well be on the cards if Leave were to win. As it is there are opportunities for Tory outers both in and out of the cabinet to shine under the glare of constant exposure . Four months is a long time.
To misquote Lyndon Johnson, I'd rather have him in the LEAVE tent smelling of piss than in the REMAIN tent. I know he's popular, but...well, ew. Just ew.
The "better educated" that is flawed as it Is based on uni degree / not uni degree. But we know that across demographics the % with / without is heavily skewed (and doesn't really reflect reality on intelligence / knowledge).
Confounding, indeed.
But would be interesting to look at age cohorts (e.g., only middle-aged people, or pensioners) and see what the graduate/non-graduate effect is.
There's also the difference between people with professional skills and training acquired through work and those from formal education.
And also between people who use their level of education and training within their employment and those who don't eg a chartered accountant who left school at 16 vs a university graduate employed as a labourer.
Who is better educated ? Who is more usefully educated ?
It would be interesting to know which Conservative MPs fell into these camps:
1) LEAVE - announced before the deal 2) REMAIN - announced before the deal 3) undecided before the deal LEAVE after the deal 4) undecided before the deal REMAIN after the deal
Those in the first three groups are worthy of respect.
Those in the fourth look like various combinations of liars, careerists and cowards.
Interesting. No other party seems to have this problem Kate Hoey is a Tory. Anyone who supports killing foxes as a sport is a Tory.
Boris in the Leave camp would be a mixed blessing for them. The campaign might end up being all about Boris and I've never been convinced if push came to shove that the public really view Boris as a potential future PM which might well be on the cards if Leave were to win. As it is there are opportunities for Tory outers both in and out of the cabinet to shine under the glare of constant exposure . Four months is a long time.
To misquote Lyndon Johnson, I'd rather have him in the LEAVE tent smelling of piss than in the REMAIN tent. I know he's popular, but...well, ew. Just ew.
I have now joined the Britain Stronger in Europe mailing list, as far as I can see there is only 1 main Remain campaign, but 3 to choose from for you Leavers!
Sums up the whole proposition: If we Remain then we have no choice but to be stuck in the EU, but if we Leave there are many options open to us.
Trouble is most of us want to know which of the many post-leave options we will taking BEFORE we vote.
Trouble is most of us want to know which of the many post-Remain options will be imposed on us BEFORE we vote.
There is really only one option - EVERCLOSERUNION.
To its credit the EU has always been open about this.
Martin McGuiness, Gerry Adams..are all for [REMAIN]
I hope you don't mind if I question the factual accuracy of this. Sinn Fein have been anti-EU all my adult life (and all theirs, no doubt). Their rationale is that no body other than the legitimate[1] Irish government should have sovereignity over an united Ireland. They are remarkably consistent[2] in their views and are consistently abstentionist in their opinions of what the UK should do (other that to leave Ireland and cease sovereignity claims).
Consequently claims of a pro-EU stance by Sinn Fein personnel are prima facie highly dubious.
I know that the Nationalist population in Northern Ireland is strongly REMAIN (because of the border implications of LEAVE). I know that Sinn Fein warned London about the timing of the refrendum so not to clash with other elections. But I cannot find a quote by Adams nor by McGuinness that the UK should REMAIN.
So. Source please?
[1] the definition of which is one of the sources of dispute...oh, ask your mother [2] given that criticism for heterdoxy include gunshot wounds, this is unsurprising
It's difficult to see how the Tory carpet won't be completely covered in blood when this thing finishes. In fact the idea that the ministers in favour of leaving might stay in office until the referendum is equally unlikely.
The PM is out if Leave wins. No question. He's just spent all his political capital fighting for Remain. Under those circumstances even Mother Theresa would fire theses bastards and Cameron isn't noted for his loyalty to those who rub him up the wrong way
Let me cheer you up further Roggie dear (luvvie talk). You are right and will have a win win in that if Leave wins Cameron/Osborne are out and if Remain wins the Conservative party will move to get Cameron replaced. Made your day?
If Leave wins Cameron and Osborne are gone and a BREXIT backer takes the leadership. If Remain wins Osborne is most likely to succeed although he will face a strong challenge if the referendum is close from a Leave backer. If Boris backs Remain he is likely finished as a challenger, Outers will want one of their own to challenge Osborne. If Boris backs Leave however he will be very much in contention and would become the likely Leave candidate against Osborne. That is why I think Boris could back Leave
Or to put it another way: Boris will back LEAVE because he thinks it's good for his career. Gove will back LEAVE because he thinks it's good for his country
Yes, Boris calculates what is good for Boris first and foremost
The "better educated" that is flawed as it Is based on uni degree / not uni degree. But we know that across demographics the % with / without is heavily skewed (and doesn't really reflect reality on intelligence / knowledge).
Confounding, indeed.
But would be interesting to look at age cohorts (e.g., only middle-aged people, or pensioners) and see what the graduate/non-graduate effect is.
There's also the difference between people with professional skills and training acquired through work and those from formal education.
And also between people who use their level of education and training within their employment and those who don't eg a chartered accountant who left school at 16 vs a university graduate employed as a labourer.
Who is better educated ? Who is more usefully educated ?
Here's a fun activity. Look up a university course such as "textile design" or "history of art" or "sociology" at a non-academically selective university. Look up their post-graduation employment statistics. In particular, look at the "hospitality" column. The results are often startling.
Watching TV news, it's amazing how you can often guess which side of the debate someone is going to be on just by looking and listening to them for a few seconds, before they've started talking about the issue itself.
Brilliant statement from Gove - he towers above the two cowards at the helm of government.
Yes he is the only real conservative among the senior members of the cabinet
I think Conservative politicians fall into three groups:
1) 'intellectuals' - they've thought about the issues and believe in 'Conservative principles', usually a bit nerdy
2) 'angrys' - they hate Labour or the trade unions or the state, usually from working or lower middle class backgrounds and self-made
3) 'privileged' - no real principles or feelings but want a career in politics and think they'd be good at it, if they were of a slightly different background they would be Labour or LibDem
The "better educated" that is flawed as it Is based on uni degree / not uni degree. But we know that across demographics the % with / without is heavily skewed (and doesn't really reflect reality on intelligence / knowledge).
Confounding, indeed.
But would be interesting to look at age cohorts (e.g., only middle-aged people, or pensioners) and see what the graduate/non-graduate effect is.
There's also the difference between people with professional skills and training acquired through work and those from formal education.
And also between people who use their level of education and training within their employment and those who don't eg a chartered accountant who left school at 16 vs a university graduate employed as a labourer.
Who is better educated ? Who is more usefully educated ?
All those are valid. The big issue with using university degree are your metric is that 40 years ago there were only 30 or so universities and I believe 15% going to uni, now it is 130 universities and ~50% going to uni. You aren't comparing like with like.
That is probably the most intelligent question posed here for years. Cammo has bladdered himself to achieve a situation in which Jeremy Corbyn gets to choose all our futures.
Boris in the Leave camp would be a mixed blessing for them. The campaign might end up being all about Boris and I've never been convinced if push came to shove that the public really view Boris as a potential future PM which might well be on the cards if Leave were to win. As it is there are opportunities for Tory outers both in and out of the cabinet to shine under the glare of constant exposure . Four months is a long time.
To misquote Lyndon Johnson, I'd rather have him in the LEAVE tent smelling of piss than in the REMAIN tent. I know he's popular, but...well, ew. Just ew.
The problem is, as I see things, that Cameron has personalised the referendum. It is no longer about the sort of EU we want to be in (if it ever was) - but about Cameron and the deal that he has achieved. Do you support Cameron or not? In general terms, most people do not, I think.
I dislike Cameron very much indeed - he is totally without principles, in my opinion (a view shared by most of the PB Tories, apparently). I have no intention of rescuing him from his self-inflicted quarrel with the rest of the Tory Party.
I believe in the EU - but on my terms, not on Cameron`s.
So I am stongly inclined towards LEAVE - and I still detest Farage, Galloway, Gove, Boris and the rest of their billious gang. What they are saying has no resonance with me at all. And yet I am inclined towards LEAVE.
Boris in the Leave camp would be a mixed blessing for them. The campaign might end up being all about Boris and I've never been convinced if push came to shove that the public really view Boris as a potential future PM which might well be on the cards if Leave were to win. As it is there are opportunities for Tory outers both in and out of the cabinet to shine under the glare of constant exposure . Four months is a long time.
To misquote Lyndon Johnson, I'd rather have him in the LEAVE tent smelling of piss than in the REMAIN tent. I know he's popular, but...well, ew. Just ew.
It would be interesting to know which Conservative MPs fell into these camps:
1) LEAVE - announced before the deal 2) REMAIN - announced before the deal 3) undecided before the deal LEAVE after the deal 4) undecided before the deal REMAIN after the deal
Those in the first three groups are worthy of respect.
Those in the fourth look like various combinations of liars, careerists and cowards.
Interesting. No other party seems to have this problem Kate Hoey is a Tory. Anyone who supports killing foxes as a sport is a Tory.
Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
This site is better educated than average, therefore it's probably more pro-Remain than average.
It's difficult to see how the Tory carpet won't be completely covered in blood when this thing finishes. In fact the idea that the ministers in favour of leaving might stay in office until the referendum is equally unlikely.
The PM is out if Leave wins. No question. He's just spent all his political capital fighting for Remain. Under those circumstances even Mother Theresa would fire theses bastards and Cameron isn't noted for his loyalty to those who rub him up the wrong way
Let me cheer you up further Roggie dear (luvvie talk). You are right and will have a win win in that if Leave wins Cameron/Osborne are out and if Remain wins the Conservative party will move to get Cameron replaced. Made your day?
If Leave wins Cameron and Osborne are gone and a BREXIT backer takes the leadership. If Remain wins Osborne is most likely to succeed although he will face a strong challenge if the referendum is close from a Leave backer. If Boris backs Remain he is likely finished as a challenger, Outers will want one of their own to challenge Osborne. If Boris backs Leave however he will be very much in contention and would become the likely Leave candidate against Osborne. That is why I think Boris could back Leave
Or to put it another way: Boris will back LEAVE because he thinks it's good for his career. Gove will back LEAVE because he thinks it's good for his country
Yes, Boris calculates what is good for Boris first and foremost
Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
This site is better educated than average, therefore it's probably more pro-Remain than average.
Do you actually believe that "better educated = more likely to support EU membership" line?
Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if Remainers do, they after all believe that the UK is better off being in the EU...
btw, just because typically students/graduate are more pro-EU doesn't mean they stay that way after years of the real world. British universities these days are not exactly bastions of free thought and you'll find that students get pro-EU stuff rammed down their throats.
Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
I think all it proves in the end is that you can't make such generalisations.
Indeed.
I know many well-educated people who are very enthusiastic about the EU, whilst I and others equally intelligent are eurosceptic.Leave do need to get more prominent supporters from the centre ground, though perhaps it will be strength not to have New Labour/Blairite types.
The big difference will be if Boris comes over to the Leave camp, even better if he takes a prominent role. If so, the referendum campaign being held when it is - just after he leaves the Mayorality but before appointment to the Cabinet - is ideal for him.
Can Leave win without Boris? You don't seem to think so.
I repeat my expectation that Leave will win England outside the metropolitan areas, but lose overall. Then the real fun will start.
What do you mean "the real fun will start?" - we English are not like the Scots - we respect the fof "non-metropolitan England" from the UK? A split of the Tory party between "metro Conservatives" and "shire Tories"? No.
As for Boris - if he's with the Remain camp then I'm pretty certain Remain will win. If he joins Leave then it's more like 50/50.
If the English respected their UK membership then they wouldn't mind a Government provided with a majority by the SNP. But we both know that the English do mind that
Firstly, there is no "membership" to the UK. The UK is a unitary country. England, Scotland, Ireland all ceased to be sovereign states upon union.
Secondly, the reason so many English didn't like the prospect of the SNP in government is because they don't like the SNP and their politics/policies, not because they didn't want Scots MPs in government.
If the UK is a unitary country, how come the Scots have a Parliament? (I know you wish they didn't.)
You don't like any policies/politics except your own - and I repeat: you regard anyone who disagrees with you as someone who ought to be hanged for treason.
The "better educated" that is flawed as it Is based on uni degree / not uni degree. But we know that across demographics the % with / without is heavily skewed (and doesn't really reflect reality on intelligence / knowledge).
Confounding, indeed.
But would be interesting to look at age cohorts (e.g., only middle-aged people, or pensioners) and see what the graduate/non-graduate effect is.
There's also the difference between people with professional skills and training acquired through work and those from formal education.
And also between people who use their level of education and training within their employment and those who don't eg a chartered accountant who left school at 16 vs a university graduate employed as a labourer.
Who is better educated ? Who is more usefully educated ?
All those are valid. The big issue with using university degree are your metric is that 40 years ago there were only 30 or so universities and I believe 15% going to uni, now it is 130 universities and ~50% going to uni. You aren't comparing like with like.
Back in the 1970s there were already 60 -70 universities but the % attending was less than 10%
Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
This site is better educated than average, therefore it's probably more pro-Remain than average.
Keep this line going and Leave will be sure to win.
It's just a fact that better educated people, for whatever reason, are more pro-Remain. That's why London is the only region in England guaranteed to vote Remain.
It's difficult to see how the Tory carpet won't be completely covered in blood when this thing finishes. In fact the idea that the ministers in favour of leaving might stay in office until the referendum is equally unlikely.
The PM is out if Leave wins. No question. He's just spent all his political capital fighting for Remain. Under those circumstances even Mother Theresa would fire theses bastards and Cameron isn't noted for his loyalty to those who rub him up the wrong way
Let me cheer you up further Roggie dear (luvvie talk). You are right and will have a win win in that if Leave wins Cameron/Osborne are out and if Remain wins the Conservative party will move to get Cameron replaced. Made your day?
If Leave wins Cameron and Osborne are gone and a BREXIT backer takes the leadership. If Remain wins Osborne is most likely to succeed although he will face a strong challenge if the referendum is close from a Leave backer. If Boris backs Remain he is likely finished as a challenger, Outers will want one of their own to challenge Osborne. If Boris backs Leave however he will be very much in contention and would become the likely Leave candidate against Osborne. That is why I think Boris could back Leave
Or to put it another way: Boris will back LEAVE because he thinks it's good for his career. Gove will back LEAVE because he thinks it's good for his country
Yes, Boris calculates what is good for Boris first and foremost
Boris is not having a good Referendum.
Time to call Peak Boris...
See what he decides
I find it odd that the person LEAVE wants so desperately has not yet declared his hand and is waiting for the Sunday morning TV bombshell.
Clearly, he will go with LEAVE. But the delay and drama is about his post Cameron leadership ambitions - nothing to do with the EU.
His gamble is that the majority of the Tory party will be anti_EU and will remember him when the time comes.
May has taken the opposite decision for the same reasons. She thinks because UK will REMAIN, a Remainer will have the advantage who is not strongly attached to the EU cause.
I have now joined the Britain Stronger in Europe mailing list, as far as I can see there is only 1 main Remain campaign, but 3 to choose from for you Leavers!
Sums up the whole proposition: If we Remain then we have no choice but to be stuck in the EU, but if we Leave there are many options open to us.
Trouble is most of us want to know which of the many post-leave options we will taking BEFORE we vote.
I would also like to know what will happen over the next 10 years if we Remain. Will the euro fall apart? Will Spain or Italy default? How hampered will the City be through EC rules and regulation? Will Turkey join the EC? Will the EC get 2 or 3 million illegal migrants each year? etc etc
As we are not in the Eurozone, if any of those events occurred the effect on the UK will be pretty much the same whether we are in or out unless you are suggesting that we would not join EFTA if we left the EU.
Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
This site is better educated than average, therefore it's probably more pro-Remain than average.
It's also sicker (some people posting here have serious illnesses - a phenomenon shared with UKPR, oddly enough), older, and far more wealthier than average
The "better educated" that is flawed as it Is based on uni degree / not uni degree. But we know that across demographics the % with / without is heavily skewed (and doesn't really reflect reality on intelligence / knowledge).
Confounding, indeed.
But would be interesting to look at age cohorts (e.g., only middle-aged people, or pensioners) and see what the graduate/non-graduate effect is.
There's also the difference between people with professional skills and training acquired through work and those from formal education.
And also between people who use their level of education and training within their employment and those who don't eg a chartered accountant who left school at 16 vs a university graduate employed as a labourer.
Who is better educated ? Who is more usefully educated ?
All those are valid. The big issue with using university degree are your metric is that 40 years ago there were only 30 or so universities and I believe 15% going to uni, now it is 130 universities and ~50% going to uni. You aren't comparing like with like.
Back in the 1970s there were already 60 -70 universities but the % attending was less than 10%
Sorry my figures were in regards to England...
"Up until the early 1980's we had a very traditional and elite higher educational system. There were some 38 Universities in England and these catered for about 14% of the 18-21 age cohort, in other words about 1 in 7 young people went into University on leaving school."
Martin McGuiness, Gerry Adams..are all for [REMAIN]
I hope you don't mind if I question the factual accuracy of this. Sinn Fein have been anti-EU all my adult life (and all theirs, no doubt). Their rationale is that no body other than the legitimate[1] Irish government should have sovereignity over an united Ireland. They are remarkably consistent[2] in their views and are consistently abstentionist in their opinions of what the UK should do (other that to leave Ireland and cease sovereignity claims).
Consequently claims of a pro-EU stance by Sinn Fein personnel are prima facie highly dubious.
I know that the Nationalist population in Northern Ireland is strongly REMAIN (because of the border implications of LEAVE). I know that Sinn Fein warned London about the timing of the refrendum so not to clash with other elections. But I cannot find a quote by Adams nor by McGuinness that the UK should REMAIN.
So. Source please?
[1] the definition of which is one of the sources of dispute...oh, ask your mother [2] given that criticism for heterdoxy include gunshot wounds, this is unsurprising
Both the SF and SDLP are 99% REMAIN.
Electorate? Certainly. But that wasn't what I asked.
'That is probably the most intelligent question posed here for years. Cammo has bladdered himself to achieve a situation in which Jeremy Corbyn gets to choose all our futures'
Well if Labour had any sense at all they would back Leave and really split the Tories.
But as they are now about as independent as the Peasants' Parties and similar that used to sit in the Supreme Soviet or the East German parliament, that's not going to happen.
They are more or less the EU's representatives in the UK now, the Lib Dems having vacated that spot after their electoral annihilation last May.
Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
This site is better educated than average, therefore it's probably more pro-Remain than average.
It's also sicker (some people posting here have serious illnesses - a phenomenon shared with UKPR, oddly enough), older, and far more wealthier than average
i suspect (without evidence) that those who view gambling in a positive light may not be evenly distributed across the political spectrum
The problem is, as I see things, that Cameron has personalised the referendum. It is no longer about the sort of EU we want to be in (if it ever was) - but about Cameron and the deal that he has achieved. Do you support Cameron or not? In general terms, most people do not, I think.
I dislike Cameron very much indeed - he is totally without principles, in my opinion (a view shared by most of the PB Tories, apparently). I have no intention of rescuing him from his self-inflicted quarrel with the rest of the Tory Party.
I believe in the EU - but on my terms, not on Cameron`s.
So I am stongly inclined towards LEAVE - and I still detest Farage, Galloway, Gove, Boris and the rest of their billious gang. What they are saying has no resonance with me at all. And yet I am inclined towards LEAVE.
The world is strange at times.
Good post. I too dislike Cameron, and like you think much of this has been about Cameron, not the EU. If it would give the man a bloody nose without too much other effect (as happened with Labour, Clegg and the AV vote) I’d vote Leave. But it’s much more important than a soon to be forgotten Tory politician, so I’ll vote Remain.
It would be interesting to know which Conservative MPs fell into these camps:
1) LEAVE - announced before the deal 2) REMAIN - announced before the deal 3) undecided before the deal LEAVE after the deal 4) undecided before the deal REMAIN after the deal
Those in the first three groups are worthy of respect.
Those in the fourth look like various combinations of liars, careerists and cowards.
Interesting. No other party seems to have this problem Kate Hoey is a Tory. Anyone who supports killing foxes as a sport is a Tory.
How about killing Iraqis?
You are absolutely right. Another Tory. Tony Blair.
Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
This site is better educated than average, therefore it's probably more pro-Remain than average.
Keep this line going and Leave will be sure to win.
It's just a fact that better educated people, for whatever reason, are more pro-Remain. That's why London is the only region in England guaranteed to vote Remain.
Wow. Do you read this rubbish in the Economist? ROFL
The problem is, as I see things, that Cameron has personalised the referendum. It is no longer about the sort of EU we want to be in (if it ever was) - but about Cameron and the deal that he has achieved. Do you support Cameron or not? In general terms, most people do not, I think.
I dislike Cameron very much indeed - he is totally without principles, in my opinion (a view shared by most of the PB Tories, apparently). I have no intention of rescuing him from his self-inflicted quarrel with the rest of the Tory Party.
I believe in the EU - but on my terms, not on Cameron`s.
So I am stongly inclined towards LEAVE - and I still detest Farage, Galloway, Gove, Boris and the rest of their billious gang. What they are saying has no resonance with me at all. And yet I am inclined towards LEAVE.
The world is strange at times.
Cameron has got away with it up to now. He has outperformed his party in elections and has swung two referenda the way he wants. I agree that he is motivated by power more than principles, however he will be gone in four years whereas our membership/non-membership of the EU will be much longer lasting. Given a choice of Cameron/Hilary Benn/Tim Farron or Farage/Galloway/Bill Cash I suspect I know which way the public will vote. By the way, Ladbrokes 72:28 Remain:Leave.
Firstly, there is no "membership" to the UK. The UK is a unitary country. England, Scotland, Ireland all ceased to be sovereign states upon union.
Secondly, the reason so many English didn't like the prospect of the SNP in government is because they don't like the SNP and their politics/policies, not because they didn't want Scots MPs in government.
If the UK is a unitary country, how come the Scots have a Parliament? (I know you wish they didn't.)
You don't like any policies/politics except your own - and I repeat: you regard anyone who disagrees with you as someone who ought to be hanged for treason.
The problem is, as I see things, that Cameron has personalised the referendum. It is no longer about the sort of EU we want to be in (if it ever was) - but about Cameron and the deal that he has achieved. Do you support Cameron or not? In general terms, most people do not, I think.
I dislike Cameron very much indeed - he is totally without principles, in my opinion (a view shared by most of the PB Tories, apparently). I have no intention of rescuing him from his self-inflicted quarrel with the rest of the Tory Party.
I believe in the EU - but on my terms, not on Cameron`s.
So I am stongly inclined towards LEAVE - and I still detest Farage, Galloway, Gove, Boris and the rest of their billious gang. What they are saying has no resonance with me at all. And yet I am inclined towards LEAVE.
The world is strange at times.
I can't agree that Cameron has personalised the referendum. Proof please.
Overwhelmingly this site is in favour of Leave. It's clear that in the wider country at best the numbers are about even and those who have tested reckon that the better educated tend towards Remain.
So the interesting question is how does does a site like this with better than averagely educated posters manage to be so out of kilter with the country as a whole.
This site is better educated than average, therefore it's probably more pro-Remain than average.
It's also sicker (some people posting here have serious illnesses - a phenomenon shared with UKPR, oddly enough), older, and far more wealthier than average
i suspect (without evidence) that those who view gambling in a positive light may not be evenly distributed across the political spectrum
Oooh, goddammit, that's actually interesting. "Risk-aversion and Risk-attraction as predictors of political affiliation": I'd read that for a dollar...
I have now joined the Britain Stronger in Europe mailing list, as far as I can see there is only 1 main Remain campaign, but 3 to choose from for you Leavers!
Sums up the whole proposition: If we Remain then we have no choice but to be stuck in the EU, but if we Leave there are many options open to us.
Trouble is most of us want to know which of the many post-leave options we will taking BEFORE we vote.
I would also like to know what will happen over the next 10 years if we Remain. Will the euro fall apart? Will Spain or Italy default? How hampered will the City be through EC rules and regulation? Will Turkey join the EC? Will the EC get 2 or 3 million illegal migrants each year? etc etc
I think the question is less whether the Euro will fail but how much will the EU have to integrate to keep it afloat?
If past experiences are any guide then the EU will do absolutely anything and everything to keep the Euro intact. This inevitably means far closer integration overall in the EU and it appears that through this agreement they have the means to do that without the UK having the ability to say no (short of leaving).
I think this is, to my mind, a certainty
In the last three months , the Euro has appreciated more than 10% against Sterling. I am not sure which economy is in trouble.
Firstly, there is no "membership" to the UK. The UK is a unitary country. England, Scotland, Ireland all ceased to be sovereign states upon union.
Secondly, the reason so many English didn't like the prospect of the SNP in government is because they don't like the SNP and their politics/policies, not because they didn't want Scots MPs in government.
If the UK is a unitary country, how come the Scots have a Parliament? (I know you wish they didn't.)
You don't like any policies/politics except your own - and I repeat: you regard anyone who disagrees with you as someone who ought to be hanged for treason.
I have now joined the Britain Stronger in Europe mailing list, as far as I can see there is only 1 main Remain campaign, but 3 to choose from for you Leavers!
Sums up the whole proposition: If we Remain then we have no choice but to be stuck in the EU, but if we Leave there are many options open to us.
Trouble is most of us want to know which of the many post-leave options we will taking BEFORE we vote.
I would also like to know what will happen over the next 10 years if we Remain. Will the euro fall apart? Will Spain or Italy default? How hampered will the City be through EC rules and regulation? Will Turkey join the EC? Will the EC get 2 or 3 million illegal migrants each year? etc etc
I think the question is less whether the Euro will fail but how much will the EU have to integrate to keep it afloat?
If past experiences are any guide then the EU will do absolutely anything and everything to keep the Euro intact. This inevitably means far closer integration overall in the EU and it appears that through this agreement they have the means to do that without the UK having the ability to say no (short of leaving).
I think this is, to my mind, a certainty
In the last three months , the Euro has appreciated more than 10% against Sterling. I am not sure which economy is in trouble.
A statement which reveals how little you understand the underlying issues with the Eurozone.
Comments
If past experiences are any guide then the EU will do absolutely anything and everything to keep the Euro intact. This inevitably means far closer integration overall in the EU and it appears that through this agreement they have the means to do that without the UK having the ability to say no (short of leaving).
I think this is, to my mind, a certainty
200 years ago Europeans migrated to all parts of the globe. At least, the new migrants are not killing the indigenous people as the Europeans did in America and Australia.
You don't like any policies/politics except your own - and I repeat: you regard anyone who disagrees with you as someone who ought to be hanged for treason.
Yes he is the only real conservative among the senior members of the cabinet
Lots of Outers have been afraid - for years! - that the Out campaign would become the Nigel Show, and that this would ultimately cost them victory.
Would the Boris Show really be such an improvement?
Ultimately, all partisan figures are polarising, and these days no one man or woman can cross a 50% threshold with the electorate. Admittedly Boris has some appeal outside traditional Tory demographics but that's in a "couple of percent" way, not a genuinely bipartisan way.
It has to be a team effort. A short-lived but necessary coalition.
That suggests you want team players on your side. Is that who Boris is?
And also between people who use their level of education and training within their employment and those who don't eg a chartered accountant who left school at 16 vs a university graduate employed as a labourer.
Who is better educated ? Who is more usefully educated ?
What Media will NOT SHOW YOU! Mid-day rally for @realDonaldTrump in @MyMyrtleBeach. https://t.co/lzp48eqcRE
To its credit the EU has always been open about this.
'Most of the Left will back In, reluctantly'
But will they bother to turn out & vote ?
Time to call Peak Boris...
When North America belonged to Europe. Interesting reminder of the colonial days. Map via @voxdotcom https://t.co/n0J2jMBF1H
Sporting of Cameron to try and give Corbyn a chance by splitting the Conservatives with this feeble deal.
1) 'intellectuals' - they've thought about the issues and believe in 'Conservative principles', usually a bit nerdy
2) 'angrys' - they hate Labour or the trade unions or the state, usually from working or lower middle class backgrounds and self-made
3) 'privileged' - no real principles or feelings but want a career in politics and think they'd be good at it, if they were of a slightly different background they would be Labour or LibDem
Labour and the LibDems have equivalent groups.
I dislike Cameron very much indeed - he is totally without principles, in my opinion (a view shared by most of the PB Tories, apparently). I have no intention of rescuing him from his self-inflicted quarrel with the rest of the Tory Party.
I believe in the EU - but on my terms, not on Cameron`s.
So I am stongly inclined towards LEAVE - and I still detest Farage, Galloway, Gove, Boris and the rest of their billious gang. What they are saying has no resonance with me at all. And yet I am inclined towards LEAVE.
The world is strange at times.
get well soon R.Dawkins.
Francois Hollande on Cameron's EU negotiations: "Just because it lasted a long time doesn't mean that much happened." Actual quote.
Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if Remainers do, they after all believe that the UK is better off being in the EU...
btw, just because typically students/graduate are more pro-EU doesn't mean they stay that way after years of the real world. British universities these days are not exactly bastions of free thought and you'll find that students get pro-EU stuff rammed down their throats.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom#Politics
Clearly, he will go with LEAVE. But the delay and drama is about his post Cameron leadership ambitions - nothing to do with the EU.
His gamble is that the majority of the Tory party will be anti_EU and will remember him when the time comes.
May has taken the opposite decision for the same reasons. She thinks because UK will REMAIN, a Remainer will have the advantage who is not strongly attached to the EU cause.
"Up until the early 1980's we had a very traditional and elite higher educational system. There were some 38 Universities in England and these catered for about 14% of the 18-21 age cohort, in other words about 1 in 7 young people went into University on leaving school."
http://warlight.tripod.com/MAITLIS.html
Well if Labour had any sense at all they would back Leave and really split the Tories.
But as they are now about as independent as the Peasants' Parties and similar that used to sit in the Supreme Soviet or the East German parliament, that's not going to happen.
They are more or less the EU's representatives in the UK now, the Lib Dems having vacated that spot after their electoral annihilation last May.
But it’s much more important than a soon to be forgotten Tory politician, so I’ll vote Remain.
Almost entire Justice Department backs Brexit. Gove and Penning want Out. Raab, Selous, Dinenage probs likewise. Remarkable.
Given a choice of Cameron/Hilary Benn/Tim Farron or Farage/Galloway/Bill Cash I suspect I know which way the public will vote.
By the way, Ladbrokes 72:28 Remain:Leave.
Will he stand down if LEAVE win the referendum?
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