If you look at the rally line-up sans George Galloway, it was scarcely more alluring than with George Galloway. Making him the special guest merely confirmed what we already knew, that Leave is led by palookas. That should have all been priced in.
Michael Gove is a good scalp for Leave and they might profitably use his organisational skills.
Now the attention turns to Boris Johnson. Could he make his mind up quickly, I have a thread header to complete?
LOL
do you honestly think anyone outside PB gives a shit about a who's at a rally ?
It's pantomime villain time you might as well write that Baron Hardup favours remain.
I cannot believe how stupid the GO campaign has been. I was shocked and disgusted to see Galloway appear on stage, and even as a committed BOOer, had momentary thoughts of whether or not I wanted to be associated with a campaign that has Galloway in it.
Are you saying people on the hard left shouldnt have an opinion ?
I'm still spitting blood about this.
As David Herdson says, it's not about sidelining any political strand of opinion: it was about making him centre stage, and the special guest, that was the problem. Having him as just an early speaker would have probably have been ok, although even then I'm not sure.
It's like BSE making Gerry Adams or John McDonnell their special guest.
Maybe you should chill out.
Martin McGuinness or Gerry Adams wouldnt worry me in the slightest.
If LEAVE is going to take on the establishment it will have some strange bedfellows.
I suppose I don't have much choice, do I?
My litmus tests are this: the ears of both Philip Thompson and Richard Nabavi pricked up ever so slightly when Gove came out for Leave yesterday. They'd have given him an audience.
Conversely, Cyclefree, and a few other soft Leavers, recoiled in horror last night when they heard about Galloway.
Yes, they are all generally centre/centre-right, but that's the battleground: both are swing electorates Leave has to win over to win.
That's the problem.
(..and who in God's earth listens to Galloway or respects him anyway?)
I think it's important to point out that GO isn't Leave.
It's the creature of Aron Banks.
I certainly don't identify with it. For Vote Leave, I can imagine an influx of pissed off Kipperite activists who don't want to share a platform with Galloway.
I just read the last thread having missed all the fun. I'm astonished at GO tin ear here. And can see why several PBers are WTF.
It's perhaps worth remembering that they can still vote Leave by looking at who is in the Vote Leave team.
IIRC Carswell is in this one. I expect Gove will be too.
What decision the Electoral Commission makes doesn't matter to me much, but I sincerely hope it doesn't choose GO.
I love how the Remain campaign are already declaring victory this early over the minor appearance of George Galloway
Where?
On last night's thread it was mainly Leavers who were disappointed at Galloway's appearance.
I think David Herdson has got it about right - Galloway's appearance won't register with the public one way or another - but it will with other public figures who are considering joining Leave but may now have pause for second thoughts.
Still Stanley Baldwin by a short head, given that for Baldwin even getting to Number 10 was a massive and improbable stroke of luck, never mind winning three huge election victories and having the opposition elect profligate pacifist George Lansbury as their leader at a time of huge international tension and domestic retrenchment.
I don't think anything in this media cycle is very important. The renegotiation was always going to be trivial compared to the actual issue at hand. As long as there's nothing in it that actively demotivates remain supporters, everyone will have forgotten about it by the time they vote. Likewise this particular news cycle.
That said, the leave campaign clearly need to get their shit together.
If Boris joins the Leave side I will vote to Remain. I would vote against a totally transparent move inspired by nothing more than a wish for personal advancement. If he doesn't join Leave I cannot see myself voting.
Wouldn't you be better making your choice based on the issue in front of you ?
That would seem sensible.
Last night we had Ms Cyclefree saying that she had to vote REMAIN because if Leave wins people like Galloway might get into power in an independent UK. This, of course, follows on from Mr Meeks, who is voting REMAIN because if Leave wins people like Farage might get into power in an independent UK.
Neither of them seems to trust the British electorate not to vote for such nutcases, and I don't understand why.
One reason might be FPTP which can elect nutcases in a 4- or 5-party system quite easily.
Under PR, Farage would be an MP.
An opposition MP. As, really, he should be.
No, he'd be in government as part of a Con-UKIP coalition.
No, he'd re-join the Tories if the latter replaced Cameron with an anti-EU leader. Or if he was too vain to do that, he'd be smashed at the subsequent GE, just as the Lib Dems were last May.
Farage, Galloway, John Redwood, IDS, Gove, Bill Cash versus Cameron, Hilary Benn, George Osborne, Chuka Umunna, Tim Farron, Alan Johnson
Wonder who will win.
Establishment versus the rest.
Depends how much the mood is kick the establishment.
As we have seen in the Labour Party already and are witnessing in the US primaries.
There's surely a huge disconnect between the Labour leadership from Islington and Labour voters in the working classes directly affected by unlimited unskilled and semiskilled immigration.
I think it's important to point out that GO isn't Leave.
It's the creature of Aron Banks.
I certainly don't identify with it. For Vote Leave, I can imagine an influx of pissed off Kipperite activists who don't want to share a platform with Galloway.
I just read the last thread having missed all the fun. I'm astonished at GO tin ear here. And can see why several PBers are WTF.
It's perhaps worth remembering that they can still vote Leave by looking at who is in the Vote Leave team.
IIRC Carswell is in this one. I expect Gove will be too.
I love how the Remain campaign are already declaring victory this early over the minor appearance of George Galloway
Where?
On last night's thread it was mainly Leavers who were disappointed at Galloway's appearance.
I think David Herdson has got it about right - Galloway's appearance won't register with the public one way or another - but it will with other public figures who are considering joining Leave but may now have pause for second thoughts.
VoteLeave must become the official organisation for Leave. They need to take the oxygen away from GO.
Yes - but the argument is that with more 'cross party support' GO will get the Electoral Commission's blessing and 'Leave' will fade away - hence the Galloway stunt
I love how the Remain campaign are already declaring victory this early over the minor appearance of George Galloway
Where?
On last night's thread it was mainly Leavers who were disappointed at Galloway's appearance.
I think David Herdson has got it about right - Galloway's appearance won't register with the public one way or another - but it will with other public figures who are considering joining Leave but may now have pause for second thoughts.
It will be all about presentation, and even if, as Mr Herdson, states, "it’s not a treaty so isn’t legally binding and, minor benefit changes aside, is largely a statement of intent that the ECJ can and probably will overrule.", the impact will depend on whether the hearer trusts the EU bureaucrats.
Having been fooled once (1975), I remain sceptical, but I now think Remain will win. It's the Establishment opinion and they have the advantages. Incidentally, the Establishment now includes the Labour Party, divorced from it's earlier roots.
Once victory is in the bag, the assurances will be sandcastles facing an incoming tide.
I think it's important to point out that GO isn't Leave.
It's the creature of Aron Banks.
I certainly don't identify with it. For Vote Leave, I can imagine an influx of pissed off Kipperite activists who don't want to share a platform with Galloway.
I just read the last thread having missed all the fun. I'm astonished at GO tin ear here. And can see why several PBers are WTF.
It's perhaps worth remembering that they can still vote Leave by looking at who is in the Vote Leave team.
IIRC Carswell is in this one. I expect Gove will be too.
I love how the Remain campaign are already declaring victory this early over the minor appearance of George Galloway
Where?
On last night's thread it was mainly Leavers who were disappointed at Galloway's appearance.
I think David Herdson has got it about right - Galloway's appearance won't register with the public one way or another - but it will with other public figures who are considering joining Leave but may now have pause for second thoughts.
VoteLeave must become the official organisation for Leave. They need to take the oxygen away from GO.
Have they got the 'Cross Party Support' the EC looks for?
Silly unforced error by GO Leave team, who would think that presenting Geo. Galloway to a room full of Kippers and Tories would elicit a positive reaction from them? Especially when then had trailed a 'Special Guest' who most had thought would be a member of the Cabinet!
I think it's important to point out that GO isn't Leave.
It's the creature of Aron Banks.
I certainly don't identify with it. For Vote Leave, I can imagine an influx of pissed off Kipperite activists who don't want to share a platform with Galloway.
I just read the last thread having missed all the fun. I'm astonished at GO tin ear here. And can see why several PBers are WTF.
It's perhaps worth remembering that they can still vote Leave by looking at who is in the Vote Leave team.
IIRC Carswell is in this one. I expect Gove will be too.
I love how the Remain campaign are already declaring victory this early over the minor appearance of George Galloway
Where?
On last night's thread it was mainly Leavers who were disappointed at Galloway's appearance.
I think David Herdson has got it about right - Galloway's appearance won't register with the public one way or another - but it will with other public figures who are considering joining Leave but may now have pause for second thoughts.
VoteLeave must become the official organisation for Leave. They need to take the oxygen away from GO.
Have they got the 'Cross Party Support' the EC looks for?
What I got from the TV coverage last night was not so much the detail of the deal which will prove to be trivial, but the discipline and self-restraint of the rest of the EU as well as the multitudes of Presidents etc.
Cameron has persuaded them that this is serious, that he has a real fight to win and now is absolutely not the time for unhelpful noises off. I do wonder if the disclosure of Gove's position played a part in that and possibly he allowed that to be done.
Anyone who thinks Cameron and Osborne won't play a leading role in Remain is deluding themselves. As of this morning's cabinet meeting voting Remain will be the policy of their government. Those 2 saw enough less than glorious defeats in their early years as SPADs when the Tory party was being crushed by Blair for a life time. For them winning is what counts and they will do what it takes to do so.
This means we will see the same disciplined message and form of campaigning that Cameron has perfected in his career. In contrast, Leave cannot even agree whether Leave means leaving the EU, the EEA or planet earth. Alanbrooke is right that some will want to give the establishment a kicking but jeez, 51%?
Silly unforced error by GO Leave team, who would think that presenting Geo. Galloway to a room full of Kippers and Tories would elicit a positive reaction from them? Especially when then had trailed a 'Special Guest' who most had thought would be a member of the Cabinet!
Until last night I'd never heard of GO. By tonight I will have forgotten them.
People you've never heard of parading minor celebs in obscure venues late at night isn't actually going to change anything.
I think it's important to point out that GO isn't Leave.
It's the creature of Aron Banks.
I certainly don't identify with it. For Vote Leave, I can imagine an influx of pissed off Kipperite activists who don't want to share a platform with Galloway.
I just read the last thread having missed all the fun. I'm astonished at GO tin ear here. And can see why several PBers are WTF.
It's perhaps worth remembering that they can still vote Leave by looking at who is in the Vote Leave team.
IIRC Carswell is in this one. I expect Gove will be too.
What decision the Electoral Commission makes doesn't matter to me much, but I sincerely hope it doesn't choose GO.
I love how the Remain campaign are already declaring victory this early over the minor appearance of George Galloway
Where?
On last night's thread it was mainly Leavers who were disappointed at Galloway's appearance.
I think David Herdson has got it about right - Galloway's appearance won't register with the public one way or another - but it will with other public figures who are considering joining Leave but may now have pause for second thoughts.
Very fair point Plato, I'm probably not helping by mouthing off on here either.
What I got from the TV coverage last night was not so much the detail of the deal which will prove to be trivial, but the discipline and self-restraint of the rest of the EU as well as the multitudes of Presidents etc.
Cameron has persuaded them that this is serious, that he has a real fight to win and now is absolutely not the time for unhelpful noises off. I do wonder if the disclosure of Gove's position played a part in that and possibly he allowed that to be done.
Anyone who thinks Cameron and Osborne won't play a leading role in Remain is deluding themselves. As of this morning's cabinet meeting voting Remain will be the policy of their government. Those 2 saw enough less than glorious defeats in their early years as SPADs when the Tory party was being crushed by Blair for a life time. For them winning is what counts and they will do what it takes to do so.
This means we will see the same disciplined message and form of campaigning that Cameron has perfected in his career. In contrast, Leave cannot even agree whether Leave means leaving the EU, the EEA or planet earth. Alanbrooke is right that some will want to give the establishment a kicking but jeez, 51%?
51% of those who vote.
the discontent will be more motivated to vote. But how many of them are there ?
Yes - but the argument is that with more 'cross party support' GO will get the Electoral Commission's blessing and 'Leave' will fade away - hence the Galloway stunt
I love how the Remain campaign are already declaring victory this early over the minor appearance of George Galloway
Where?
On last night's thread it was mainly Leavers who were disappointed at Galloway's appearance.
I think David Herdson has got it about right - Galloway's appearance won't register with the public one way or another - but it will with other public figures who are considering joining Leave but may now have pause for second thoughts.
Presumably Boris will finally pronounce today. Given the change of mood since Cameron's deal I am suspecting he will head for the In camp which given he has a europhile father , brother and sister is probably his natural home.
I think it's important to point out that GO isn't Leave.
It's the creature of Aron Banks.
I certainly don't identify with it. For Vote Leave, I can imagine an influx of pissed off Kipperite activists who don't want to share a platform with Galloway.
I just read the last thread having missed all the fun. I'm astonished at GO tin ear here. And can see why several PBers are WTF.
It's perhaps worth remembering that they can still vote Leave by looking at who is in the Vote Leave team.
IIRC Carswell is in this one. I expect Gove will be too.
I love how the Remain campaign are already declaring victory this early over the minor appearance of George Galloway
Where?
On last night's thread it was mainly Leavers who were disappointed at Galloway's appearance.
I think David Herdson has got it about right - Galloway's appearance won't register with the public one way or another - but it will with other public figures who are considering joining Leave but may now have pause for second thoughts.
VoteLeave must become the official organisation for Leave. They need to take the oxygen away from GO.
Have they got the 'Cross Party Support' the EC looks for?
Which political party does Galloway represent?
I believe they appear on ballot papers as "Respect (George Galloway)"...
What I got from the TV coverage last night was not so much the detail of the deal which will prove to be trivial, but the discipline and self-restraint of the rest of the EU as well as the multitudes of Presidents etc.
Cameron has persuaded them that this is serious, that he has a real fight to win and now is absolutely not the time for unhelpful noises off. I do wonder if the disclosure of Gove's position played a part in that and possibly he allowed that to be done.
Anyone who thinks Cameron and Osborne won't play a leading role in Remain is deluding themselves. As of this morning's cabinet meeting voting Remain will be the policy of their government. Those 2 saw enough less than glorious defeats in their early years as SPADs when the Tory party was being crushed by Blair for a life time. For them winning is what counts and they will do what it takes to do so.
This means we will see the same disciplined message and form of campaigning that Cameron has perfected in his career. In contrast, Leave cannot even agree whether Leave means leaving the EU, the EEA or planet earth. Alanbrooke is right that some will want to give the establishment a kicking but jeez, 51%?
51% of those who vote.
the discontent will be more motivated to vote. But how many of them are there ?
The contents have it, the contents have it. Cameron will put on the famous furrowed brow one last time and explain in great earnestness why this, putting all party politics aside (hah), is in the best interests of the country and the majority will believe him and vote for it.
I really thought he had screwed up this time but as a politician he is exceptional and he has enough for his pitch. I'll be amazed if Boris thinks standing in front of the juggernaut is a good option.
"Cameron is going to be skewered when people ask him "if we can't agree - what happens then?"
Who will ask that question? The BBC won't. They try to be independent, but on some issues, they can't get their minds round why anyone would disagree. The European project is their version of Motherhood and Apple Pie.
I don't think anything in this media cycle is very important. The renegotiation was always going to be trivial compared to the actual issue at hand. As long as there's nothing in it that actively demotivates remain supporters, everyone will have forgotten about it by the time they vote. Likewise this particular news cycle.
That said, the leave campaign clearly need to get their shit together.
If Boris joins the Leave side I will vote to Remain. I would vote against a totally transparent move inspired by nothing more than a wish for personal advancement. If he doesn't join Leave I cannot see myself voting.
Wouldn't you be better making your choice based on the issue in front of you ?
That would seem sensible.
Last night we had Ms Cyclefree saying that she had to vote REMAIN because if Leave wins people like Galloway might get into power in an independent UK. This, of course, follows on from Mr Meeks, who is voting REMAIN because if Leave wins people like Farage might get into power in an independent UK.
Neither of them seems to trust the British electorate not to vote for such nutcases, and I don't understand why.
Well this is my point, previously sensible people are losing their marbles.
Look, if we vote to Leave it means we are free from EU restrictions and regulations, our councillors, MPs and Lords won't change. It doesn't mean Cameron is taken to the Tower and Farage becomes PM with Galloway as Chancellor.
Obviously Farage and Galloway won't be in government. No one supposes that.
What is extremely likely, following a Leave win, is that Cameron resigns and that the Tory Eurosceptic right gains control of the Government. For me, that would be deeply unwelcome. It's far from the only reason I will be voting Remain but it's one of them.
That the EU is of transcendent importance is something Leave needs to persuade people of. It's not self-evident.
I don't think, that as a nation, we need to be saved from ourselves by the EU.
Is easier on the eyes - and the front page with Will Straw next to Richard Branson gives a better impression of 'cross party' than any of 'Barking, Howling or Moaning'......I think the worst that could be said for it is 'boring'.....even if they have appropriated red white and blue as their main colours....subtle, huh?
Silly unforced error by GO Leave team, who would think that presenting Geo. Galloway to a room full of Kippers and Tories would elicit a positive reaction from them? Especially when then had trailed a 'Special Guest' who most had thought would be a member of the Cabinet!
FFS get a grip guys. If 1% of the public outside us political obsessives knows who Galloway is I would be surprised. Mrs Indigo (Senior) is a Tory Party member and when I mentioned about him on the phone she said "Who?". The more likely reaction to anyone watching the event coverage (such as it was) would not have been "OMG who invited that idiot Galloway" but "Who the hell is he and why is he a special guest"
This vote is going to be 99% decided on people's gut reaction to the EU itself, it wont be what Dave says, it wont be what Farage says, and it sure as hell wont be what Galloway says. The polls have been MoE for weeks as much as we get excited about them. The status quo remains ,its going to be "immigrants" vs "jobs" and most people will have a settled view on that and had one for a long time. The result is going to be 50% +/- 5% at most and come down to differential turn out and GOTV. In reality as someone here put it a couple of days ago, Leave nutters vs Remain nutters.
As someone on the centre left, I see the referendum as an argument between the soft right and the hard right. It is not my row. I suspect I may not be alone.
+1. But sadly we do have to choose. They are playing with our future. Who do we think will make the least damage? Leave or Remain?
I am with SO on this one, it is an argument between the soft right and the hard right. It is not my row. However the argument put by many on the left that we should stay in so we are protected from a conservative government is risible. The british people should decide how they want their country run, in my opinion with a pr voting system, but either way the choice is about democracy.
So that is why I will not abstain and vote to leave.
Is easier on the eyes - and the front page with Will Straw next to Richard Branson gives a better impression of 'cross party' than any of 'Barking, Howling or Moaning'......I think the worst that could be said for it is 'boring'.....even if they have appropriated red white and blue as their main colours....subtle, huh?
By the way where is Jeremy? You know, silly beard, old, not too bright, in the HoC on some sort of day care basis....Does he have anything to say about this? Anything at all?
By the way where is Jeremy? You know, silly beard, old, not too bright, in the HoC on some sort of day care basis....Does he have anything to say about this? Anything at all?
Odd for a rightie, but I'll really miss Bob Crowe's growling in this referendum
Reply to DavidL at 8.46 You question the quote '51% want to give the establishment a kicking'. And I think you are right. The other day (as I have reminded people before) the BBC did a vox pop series of interviews on a high Street and the vast majority knew nothing meaningful about the negotiations. And this is despite the banner negative headlines spewed out by the press. Also someone in a focus group actually said 'why bother with the referendum now, just vote on it in parliament'.
All this hardly amounts to a seething mass of resentment.
And this is before people start to think about why on earth they should cut off their nose to spite their face. Or run with a pack of pretty nondescript chancers.
Some people not least in the Labour Party may try to create some embarrassment for Cameron and be happy to reduce the issue to personalities and party advantage. They may even succeed and this is something which really ought to give genuine conservatives some pause for thought when it comes to doing Corbyn's dirty work for him.
As David Herdson says, it's not about sidelining any political strand of opinion: it was about making him centre stage, and the special guest, that was the problem. Having him as just an early speaker would have probably have been ok, although even then I'm not sure.
It's like BSE making Gerry Adams or John McDonnell their special guest.
Don't worry about Galloway too much, would be my advice.
As a REMAINER I fully expect to see public figures that I dislike (or consider to be unhelpful) making high profile appearances on my side of the debate too. Honestly - they'll balance each other out across REMAIN and LEAVE. I think it's just something that we'll all have to grin and bear to an extent. There are only two sides in a referendum, after all, so each is bound to be quite broad.
If you think you're suffering with George Galloway then spare a thought for we REMAINERS who've got the ridiculous Emma Thompson to shoot us all in the foot.
Farage, Galloway, John Redwood, IDS, Gove, Bill Cash versus Cameron, Hilary Benn, George Osborne, Chuka Umunna, Tim Farron, Alan Johnson
Wonder who will win.
Establishment versus the rest.
Depends how much the mood is kick the establishment.
As we have seen in the Labour Party already and are witnessing in the US primaries.
There's surely a huge disconnect between the Labour leadership from Islington and Labour voters in the working classes directly affected by unlimited unskilled and semiskilled immigration.
The Labour Party leadership election showed the views of the selectorate not the country as a whole.
If anything if you can trust the opinion polls then thus has demonstrated the gulf between the true believing kick the establishment extreme and your average voter.
I cannot believe how stupid the GO campaign has been. I was shocked and disgusted to see Galloway appear on stage, and even as a committed BOOer, had momentary thoughts of whether or not I wanted to be associated with a campaign that has Galloway in it.
Are you saying people on the hard left shouldnt have an opinion ?
I'm still spitting blood about this.
As David Herdson says, it's not about sidelining any political strand of opinion: it was about making him centre stage, and the special guest, that was the problem. Having him as just an early speaker would have probably have been ok, although even then I'm not sure.
It's like BSE making Gerry Adams or John McDonnell their special guest.
Maybe you should chill out.
Martin McGuinness or Gerry Adams wouldnt worry me in the slightest.
If LEAVE is going to take on the establishment it will have some strange bedfellows.
Sure. In fact Adams and McGuinness will support Remain, but one has to take one's support where one finds it. Leave can't be an exclusively centre-right concern.
Is easier on the eyes - and the front page with Will Straw next to Richard Branson gives a better impression of 'cross party' than any of 'Barking, Howling or Moaning'......I think the worst that could be said for it is 'boring'.....even if they have appropriated red white and blue as their main colours....subtle, huh?
Are they really mad enough to use Branson?
I suspect Branson is seen as a successful popular businessman and 'not too posh' (which of course he is, very).....and lefties will have heard of 'Will Straw'.....it goes back to this 'cross party thing'......now all they need is a piece from Nicola arguing in favour of the Union....
I don't think anything in this media cycle is very important. The renegotiation was always going to be trivial compared to the actual issue at hand. As long as there's nothing in it that actively demotivates remain supporters, everyone will have forgotten about it by the time they vote. Likewise this particular news cycle.
That said, the leave campaign clearly need to get their shit together.
If Boris joins the Leave side I will vote to Remain. I would vote against a totally transparent move inspired by nothing more than a wish for personal advancement. If he doesn't join Leave I cannot see myself voting.
Wouldn't you be better making your choice based on the issue in front of you ?
That would seem sensible.
Last night we had Ms Cyclefree saying that she had to vote REMAIN because if Leave wins people like Galloway might get into power in an independent UK. This, of course, follows on from Mr Meeks, who is voting REMAIN because if Leave wins people like Farage might get into power in an independent UK.
Neither of them seems to trust the British electorate not to vote for such nutcases, and I don't understand why.
Well this is my point, previously sensible people are losing their marbles.
Look, if we vote to Leave it means we are free from EU restrictions and regulations, our councillors, MPs and Lords won't change. It doesn't mean Cameron is taken to the Tower and Farage becomes PM with Galloway as Chancellor.
Obviously Farage and Galloway won't be in government. No one supposes that.
What is extremely likely, following a Leave win, is that Cameron resigns and that the Tory Eurosceptic right gains control of the Government. For me, that would be deeply unwelcome. It's far from the only reason I will be voting Remain but it's one of them.
That the EU is of transcendent importance is something Leave needs to persuade people of. It's not self-evident.
I don't think, that as a nation, we need to be saved from ourselves by the EU.
I cannot believe how stupid the GO campaign has been. I was shocked and disgusted to see Galloway appear on stage, and even as a committed BOOer, had momentary thoughts of whether or not I wanted to be associated with a campaign that has Galloway in it.
Are you saying people on the hard left shouldnt have an opinion ?
I'm still spitting blood about this.
As David Herdson says, it's not about sidelining any political strand of opinion: it was about making him centre stage, and the special guest, that was the problem. Having him as just an early speaker would have probably have been ok, although even then I'm not sure.
It's like BSE making Gerry Adams or John McDonnell their special guest.
Maybe you should chill out.
Martin McGuinness or Gerry Adams wouldnt worry me in the slightest.
If LEAVE is going to take on the establishment it will have some strange bedfellows.
Sure. In fact Adams and McGuinness will support Remain, but one has to take one's support where one finds it. Leave can't be an exclusively centre-right concern.
yes it's one of the fun things from Sinn Fein.
Remain in the North, Leave in the Republic but we're an all Ireland party.
Is easier on the eyes - and the front page with Will Straw next to Richard Branson gives a better impression of 'cross party' than any of 'Barking, Howling or Moaning'......I think the worst that could be said for it is 'boring'.....even if they have appropriated red white and blue as their main colours....subtle, huh?
Are they really mad enough to use Branson?
I suspect Branson is seen as a successful popular businessman and 'not too posh' (which of course he is, very).....and lefties will have heard of 'Will Straw'.....it goes back to this 'cross party thing'......now all they need is a piece from Nicola arguing in favour of the Union....
By the way where is Jeremy? You know, silly beard, old, not too bright, in the HoC on some sort of day care basis....Does he have anything to say about this? Anything at all?
His last Tweet on the subject:
Cameron's negotiations should be about the real reforms EU needs: democratisation, workers’ rights, ending austerity & halting privatisation
'Ending Austerity'? Ask the Greeks or Portuguese how that's going....
'halting privatisation'? Isn't it the EU that forces the break up of state monopolies?
From memory, the SNP stated it would cost £200 million to set up the entire apparatus of independence. It turns out it costs £600 million just to set up a welfare payments system. That's less than oil generates a year now, isn't it?
I was in a meeting yesterday with some contractors with long experience of the industry (as I do as well) and they stated that up to 85k jobs had been lost in the Aberdeen area ( this includes those who previously flew in to work) , restaurant takings down 50% , taxi takings down 40% and the housing market in extreme difficulties and virtually stagnant. Of course that is not indicative of Scotland as a whole but it is a major revenue stream for them as it also is further south.
This will not improve for this this years offshore season and it is very unlikely it will improve next year to any great extent even if the oil price should start an early recovery. A sustained period of 60 to 70 plus on Brent crude will be required just to start companies even considering the unstacking of rigs and assets now warm and even cold stacked.
There is too much previous investment out there for some recovery not to occur but the use of the word "decommission" is becoming more and more commonplace than previously. The landscape for the North Sea and in particular for Scotland is going to look considerably different by the time this is over as many of the previous players may not return or may no longer be in existence. I would have thought this has to shape the approach of the SNP to any immediate and even mid term demands and aspirations they may have. Secretly the SNP would be breathing a collective sigh of relief as this would have been the wrong time, there will be better moments in the future for what they wish to achieve.
Is easier on the eyes - and the front page with Will Straw next to Richard Branson gives a better impression of 'cross party' than any of 'Barking, Howling or Moaning'......I think the worst that could be said for it is 'boring'.....even if they have appropriated red white and blue as their main colours....subtle, huh?
Are they really mad enough to use Branson?
I suspect Branson is seen as a successful popular businessman and 'not too posh' (which of course he is, very).....and lefties will have heard of 'Will Straw'.....it goes back to this 'cross party thing'......now all they need is a piece from Nicola arguing in favour of the Union....
or as a total cnt
I suspect those who know him best like him least (IIRC Charles would not wish to do business with him...) but I suspect his reputation in the general public's mind is more tied to the Virgin brand.....
As David Herdson says, it's not about sidelining any political strand of opinion: it was about making him centre stage, and the special guest, that was the problem. Having him as just an early speaker would have probably have been ok, although even then I'm not sure.
It's like BSE making Gerry Adams or John McDonnell their special guest.
Don't worry about Galloway too much, would be my advice.
As a REMAINER I fully expect to see public figures that I dislike (or consider to be unhelpful) making high profile appearances on my side of the debate too. Honestly - they'll balance each other out across REMAIN and LEAVE. I think it's just something that we'll all have to grin and bear to an extent. There are only two sides in a referendum, after all, so each is bound to be quite broad.
If you think you're suffering with George Galloway then spare a thought for we REMAINERS who've got the ridiculous Emma Thompson to shoot us all in the foot.
Very well put.
The only possible issue with Galloway is the one David Herdson highlights - he may repel Tory MPs. However, that's probably heavily outweighed by Gove's move. Amongst all the events of yesterday Leave finally got a credible leader. Not popular but a serious front-rank politician.
By the way where is Jeremy? You know, silly beard, old, not too bright, in the HoC on some sort of day care basis....Does he have anything to say about this? Anything at all?
His last Tweet on the subject:
Cameron's negotiations should be about the real reforms EU needs: democratisation, workers’ rights, ending austerity & halting privatisation
'Ending Austerity'? Ask the Greeks or Portuguese how that's going....
'halting privatisation'? Isn't it the EU that forces the break up of state monopolies?
I think his support for Remain will be pretty half-hearted.
FFS get a grip guys. If 1% of the public outside us political obsessives knows who Galloway is I would be surprised. Mrs Indigo (Senior) is a Tory Party member and when I mentioned about him on the phone she said "Who?". The more likely reaction to anyone watching the event coverage (such as it was) would not have been "OMG who invited that idiot Galloway" but "Who the hell is he and why is he a special guest"
Of course they know who he is. He's that guy who played a cat while wearing a leotard on Big Brother a few years back.
I feel like it is going to be a bit strange when, in the event of a Remain win (though I not wish for it), that various Leavers are retained or promoted for the sake of unity as is apparently intended. I understand the reasoning, but some very emotive language will be used against Cameron and any of the remainers, and if the leaver cabinet members don't say it themselves they will be seen as tacitly endorsing much of it, at least where it relates to Cameron and co at best having terrible judgement (they surely will not go as far as those saying he is a liar) and making a terrible decision. In those circumstances it seems entirely reasonable to me that their Cabinet careers would be over while his clique is in charge, this is not a peripheral issue for leavers it can be argued is not important they were bitterly divided on.
On the deal itself, sure some nice sounding noises about it, but as were reminded all the way through the negotiation, that's the way these things go. I don't say it is all a pantomime, or fake, but the late night meetings, the tough stances giving way to compromises and then grand statements which are then not as firm in text as pronouncements would have people believe? That's all part of the diplomatic operating procedure, so a good rule of thumb is that it is never as encouraging as things seemed in the announcement, and so if anyone was not sold on the announcement it will likely not get better and is a question of how much worse it is.
George Galloway. What were they thinking? I have friends who would rather cut off their own testicles than be on the same side of the argument at him.
Well they can always move over and cosy up with Gerry Adams and John McDonnell
If I want to persuade someone of something, I find someone who they will naturally trust to deliver the message. So, if I want to get a bunch of teenagers not to take drugs, I'll find a popstar, not Barbara Bush. If it's small businessmen and the benefits of free trade, I'll find someone who was a small businessman and grow their business through the advantages of free trade.
There are people- different in every case - who we listen to; and those who we revile.
Up until now our case has been quite well put; different messages for different audiences. And yes, George Galloway can have a role. But anyone who thinks that having Galloway on a stage addressing middle England will help us leave the EU is living in cloud cuckoo land.
Fortunately, as you say, no-one will have seen this, so far.
That's not the risk. The risk that our campaign continues to be utterly tone deaf.
Middle England is full of vague Remain-ers. Our task is to keep them at home. Putting George Galloway on stage makes that task harder.
By the way where is Jeremy? You know, silly beard, old, not too bright, in the HoC on some sort of day care basis....Does he have anything to say about this? Anything at all?
His last Tweet on the subject:
Cameron's negotiations should be about the real reforms EU needs: democratisation, workers’ rights, ending austerity & halting privatisation
'Ending Austerity'? Ask the Greeks or Portuguese how that's going....
'halting privatisation'? Isn't it the EU that forces the break up of state monopolies?
He is one that is definitely living on another planet.
Is easier on the eyes - and the front page with Will Straw next to Richard Branson gives a better impression of 'cross party' than any of 'Barking, Howling or Moaning'......I think the worst that could be said for it is 'boring'.....even if they have appropriated red white and blue as their main colours....subtle, huh?
Are they really mad enough to use Branson?
I suspect Branson is seen as a successful popular businessman and 'not too posh' (which of course he is, very).....and lefties will have heard of 'Will Straw'.....it goes back to this 'cross party thing'......now all they need is a piece from Nicola arguing in favour of the Union....
or as a total cnt
I suspect those who know him best like him least (IIRC Charles would not wish to do business with him...) but I suspect his reputation in the general public's mind is more tied to the Virgin brand.....
Nah, I suspect you're wrong. Lots of people dislike beardy.
It simply shows what we saw last night that the campaigns will create the strangest of bedfellows and the management of such will create lots of WTF moments.
Since the old left right axis doesn't work in this case campaigns will be presenting lots of teeth sucking moments where what motivates one half of their support alienates the other half.
So either we will end up with the blandest of the bland to offend no-one or one roller coaster of a communications programme.
Regardless of the outcome I'm surprised and disappointed how the referendum has developed into such a personality contest, especially among supposed political thinkers on here. So many people seem to be basing their vote on the stance of individuals which I find extraordinary.
99% of those actively involved are self serving, ignore them, make your judgement on the issues not the personalities involved.
The scenario is playing out exactly as predicted so far, it will be interesting when the smoking gun from the negotiations is found. I still refuse to predict the outcome and I'm not a trader but I'd suggest backing Leave today, the price between now and June will tighten at some stage.
That's how celebrity endorsement works. If a supermarket gets Jamie Oliver to recommend their croissants sales will rocket. No one asks the why the consumers don't take the trouble to compare ingredients
Do you seriously think that's still true?
It may well drive awareness of 'Desperate Supermarket's Croissants' but the overwhelming majority of British people will think 'Jamie Oliver's being paid to say that' - and while that may tempt a tiny minority, but most will file it under 'The croissants probably cost more 'coz they've got to pay Jamie Oliver'.
On EURef - the views of Farage & co will be discounted - though as we've seen from the polling, Cameron will add weight to 'Remain'.
Luvvies will be discounted - 'what does Michael Caine/Emma Thomson know about the tapered child benefit rules...?'
Among undecided Conservatives I suspect Gove will carry some weight - whereas Boris will be seen as either a brown nose merchant or schemer.....
I'm struggling to think of any 'big names' who might help tip things one way or the other.....
It is something that has always baffled me but these things are researched to death and as you'll know the fees are huge. This one will be about positioning as much as anything. It's for the Remain camp to set the battleground. My guess is they'll go for 'little Englanders' versus those with a wider vision. Say Real Madrid V Hull City
Has the deal been published on the web yet? It deserves the same foresic analysis the draft agreement got.
Questions such as, which parts will never in practice see the light of day, have protections for the City been weakened, are British citizens worse off, will the courts strike most of it down anyway, etc, All the points that have been raised on PB since the draft agreement was revealed.
The Daily Mail are in a bad mood and ripping Cameron and the deal to shreds already. Who cares? I hear it said.
Like it or not the Mail is read in paper form and online form by one hell of a lot of people and they won't be interested in the detail one way or another only the headline.
Is easier on the eyes - and the front page with Will Straw next to Richard Branson gives a better impression of 'cross party' than any of 'Barking, Howling or Moaning'......I think the worst that could be said for it is 'boring'.....even if they have appropriated red white and blue as their main colours....subtle, huh?
Are they really mad enough to use Branson?
I suspect Branson is seen as a successful popular businessman and 'not too posh' (which of course he is, very).....and lefties will have heard of 'Will Straw'.....it goes back to this 'cross party thing'......now all they need is a piece from Nicola arguing in favour of the Union....
or as a total cnt
There are two views on Richard Branson:
- that he's a successful, non political, businessman and then - there are those who've met him
So people are still obsessing over things only obsessives will care about. Stands to reason I guess. It doesn't matter whether Galloway backs leave or whether Rolf Harris does. What matters is whether the Prime Minister has a deal which allows us to to solve the problems of today and the future. He hasn't. We are stuck in a dysfunctional union which is in a death spiral. His 'deal' is worthless and just proves what a fundamentally flawed institution the EU is. It will unravel quite quickly and he'll be found out personally.
But aside from all that, the events of the next few months will make questions about indexing child benefits look so trivial as to be laughable. The fundamentals are with Leave. But yeah Galloway, the horror the horror.
@SamCoatesTimes: Peter Bone who nominally heads Grassroots Out did not know about Galloway until moments before rally started. Undermines his claim to run Go
The only possible issue with Galloway is the one David Herdson highlights - he may repel Tory MPs. However, that's probably heavily outweighed by Gove's move. Amongst all the events of yesterday Leave finally got a credible leader. Not popular but a serious front-rank politician.
Yes, and I actually think that Galloway speaking at the GO event wasn't as damaging to LEAVE as people walking out on Galloway speaking at the GO was - and even that wasn't any kind of lasting damage.
These things are best seen in terms on news cycles. Cameron owns the current one - he gets air time to explain the deal and why it's a great idea. Boris, if he declares for Out, will get the next one (or split the current one) - without him, it isn't going to look like an even fight, which is what the media love (Gove, meh, who's he, the voters will say). But in the end many people will vote on (a) do they vaguely feel we should be in or out and (b) do they vaguely trust Cameron.
The main problem for Remain, it seems to me, is that they need a lot of votes from people who are not keen on Cameron. Just as Leave needs to avoid Farage fronting their effort, Remain needs to ensure it doesn't turn into a vote of confidence in Cameron. Southam Observer is a good example in his reaction - a moderate centre-left poster, not sure if he'll bother to oppose a nationalist-driven withdrawal from being part of the European Union.
Incidentally, I think too many sensible posters get wound up by people they like and don't like. Southam's decision shouldn't hinge on what Boris does. Cyclefree's shouldn't hinge on Galloway. Decide on the issue FFS - it'll affect Britain long after both Boris and Galloway are in care homes.
I cannot believe how stupid the GO campaign has been. I was shocked and disgusted to see Galloway appear on stage, and even as a committed BOOer, had momentary thoughts of whether or not I wanted to be associated with a campaign that has Galloway in it.
Are you saying people on the hard left shouldnt have an opinion ?
I'm still spitting blood about this.
As David Herdson says, it's not about sidelining any political strand of opinion: it was about making him centre stage, and the special guest, that was the problem. Having him as just an early speaker would have probably have been ok, although even then I'm not sure.
It's like BSE making Gerry Adams or John McDonnell their special guest.
Maybe you should chill out.
Martin McGuinness or Gerry Adams wouldnt worry me in the slightest.
If LEAVE is going to take on the establishment it will have some strange bedfellows.
Sure. In fact Adams and McGuinness will support Remain, but one has to take one's support where one finds it. Leave can't be an exclusively centre-right concern.
Are you serious? What you mean is 'exclusively barking fruit loop right concern'
Is easier on the eyes - and the front page with Will Straw next to Richard Branson gives a better impression of 'cross party' than any of 'Barking, Howling or Moaning'......I think the worst that could be said for it is 'boring'.....even if they have appropriated red white and blue as their main colours....subtle, huh?
Are they really mad enough to use Branson?
I suspect Branson is seen as a successful popular businessman and 'not too posh' (which of course he is, very).....and lefties will have heard of 'Will Straw'.....it goes back to this 'cross party thing'......now all they need is a piece from Nicola arguing in favour of the Union....
or as a total cnt
There are two views on Richard Branson:
- that he's a successful, non political, businessman and then - there are those who've met him
Has the deal been published on the web yet? It deserves the same foresic analysis the draft agreement got.
Questions such as, which parts will never in practice see the light of day, have protections for the City been weakened, are British citizens worse off, will the courts strike most of it down anyway, etc, All the points that have been raised on PB since the draft agreement was revealed.
The Daily Mail are in a bad mood and ripping Cameron and the deal to shreds already. Who cares? I hear it said.
Like it or not the Mail is read in paper form and online form by one hell of a lot of people and they won't be interested in the detail one way or another only the headline.
The Daily Wail would have opposed the deal whatever Cameron achieved. Editor Paul Dacre is upset because Cam doesn't think he deserves a knighthood.
From memory, the SNP stated it would cost £200 million to set up the entire apparatus of independence. It turns out it costs £600 million just to set up a welfare payments system. That's less than oil generates a year now, isn't it?
I was in a meeting yesterday with some contractors with long experience of the industry (as I do as well) and they stated that up to 85k jobs had been lost in the Aberdeen area ( this includes those who previously flew in to work) , restaurant takings down 50% , taxi takings down 40% and the housing market in extreme difficulties and virtually stagnant. Of course that is not indicative of Scotland as a whole but it is a major revenue stream for them as it also is further south.
This will not improve for this this years offshore season and it is very unlikely it will improve next year to any great extent even if the oil price should start an early recovery. A sustained period of 60 to 70 plus on Brent crude will be required just to start companies even considering the unstacking of rigs and assets now warm and even cold stacked.
There is too much previous investment out there for some recovery not to occur but the use of the word "decommission" is becoming more and more commonplace than previously. The landscape for the North Sea and in particular for Scotland is going to look considerably different by the time this is over as many of the previous players may not return or may no longer be in existence. I would have thought this has to shape the approach of the SNP to any immediate and even mid term demands and aspirations they may have. Secretly the SNP would be breathing a collective sigh of relief as this would have been the wrong time, there will be better moments in the future for what they wish to achieve.
Most of Scotland will not even notice. Some overpaid jerks having to sell their ferraris and rolexes and overpriced house prices dropping. majority of people will see little difference. Less erses flying in etc
Has the deal been published on the web yet? It deserves the same foresic analysis the draft agreement got.
Questions such as, which parts will never in practice see the light of day, have protections for the City been weakened, are British citizens worse off, will the courts strike most of it down anyway, etc, All the points that have been raised on PB since the draft agreement was revealed.
The Daily Mail are in a bad mood and ripping Cameron and the deal to shreds already. Who cares? I hear it said.
Like it or not the Mail is read in paper form and online form by one hell of a lot of people and they won't be interested in the detail one way or another only the headline.
The Daily Wail would have opposed the deal whatever Cameron achieved. Editor Paul Dacre is upset because Cam doesn't think he deserves a knighthood.
All possibly true, and all completely irrelevant. 10 million people are still reading it.
Considering the non-relevance to most people's lives of this referendum, shouldn't the value bet be on the percentage of the eligible electorate who will actually vote?
I cannot believe how stupid the GO campaign has been. I was shocked and disgusted to see Galloway appear on stage, and even as a committed BOOer, had momentary thoughts of whether or not I wanted to be associated with a campaign that has Galloway in it.
Are you saying people on the hard left shouldnt have an opinion ?
I'm still spitting blood about this.
As David Herdson says, it's not about sidelining any political strand of opinion: it was about making him centre stage, and the special guest, that was the problem. Having him as just an early speaker would have probably have been ok, although even then I'm not sure.
It's like BSE making Gerry Adams or John McDonnell their special guest.
Maybe you should chill out.
Martin McGuinness or Gerry Adams wouldnt worry me in the slightest.
If LEAVE is going to take on the establishment it will have some strange bedfellows.
Sure. In fact Adams and McGuinness will support Remain, but one has to take one's support where one finds it. Leave can't be an exclusively centre-right concern.
Are you serious? What you mean is 'exclusively barking fruit loop right concern'
Considering the non-relevance to most people's lives of this referendum, shouldn't the value bet be on the percentage of the eligible electorate who will actually vote?
I will vote Leave just to be against Baw face and the Tories
Farage, Galloway, John Redwood, IDS, Gove, Bill Cash versus Cameron, Hilary Benn, George Osborne, Chuka Umunna, Tim Farron, Alan Johnson
Wonder who will win.
According to how he comes across then Benn could do himself some favours with the public. We may well see how dim Corbyn is, but the public have broadly discounted that. I wonder how Farron will come across and will anyone notice?
By the way where is Jeremy? You know, silly beard, old, not too bright, in the HoC on some sort of day care basis....Does he have anything to say about this? Anything at all?
His last Tweet on the subject:
Cameron's negotiations should be about the real reforms EU needs: democratisation, workers’ rights, ending austerity & halting privatisation
'Ending Austerity'? Ask the Greeks or Portuguese how that's going....
'halting privatisation'? Isn't it the EU that forces the break up of state monopolies?
It's even more embarrassing than normal.
If EU stability pact rules applied to the UK we would have seen an entirely different level of cuts, higher unemployment and a smaller economy.
Considering the non-relevance to most people's lives of this referendum, shouldn't the value bet be on the percentage of the eligible electorate who will actually vote?
I will vote Leave just to be against Baw face and the Tories
It would be funny if Scotland voted to Leave while rUK Remained.....
I cannot believe how stupid the GO campaign has been. I was shocked and disgusted to see Galloway appear on stage, and even as a committed BOOer, had momentary thoughts of whether or not I wanted to be associated with a campaign that has Galloway in it.
Are you saying people on the hard left shouldnt have an opinion ?
I'm still spitting blood about this.
As David Herdson says, it's not about sidelining any political strand of opinion: it was about making him centre stage, and the special guest, that was the problem. Having him as just an early speaker would have probably have been ok, although even then I'm not sure.
It's like BSE making Gerry Adams or John McDonnell their special guest.
Maybe you should chill out.
Martin McGuinness or Gerry Adams wouldnt worry me in the slightest.
If LEAVE is going to take on the establishment it will have some strange bedfellows.
Sure. In fact Adams and McGuinness will support Remain, but one has to take one's support where one finds it. Leave can't be an exclusively centre-right concern.
Are you serious? What you mean is 'exclusively barking fruit loop right concern'
You mean aside from Gove and possibly Boris ?
Gove would help to make it less barking fruit loop. I like Gove but I'm not sure about the rest of the public.
Boris Johnson has a huge career-defining choice today. His personal interest is probably best served by opting for Leave. But he does risk being the chief wildcard in a pack of wildcards, leader of the carnival of the animals, something which the Prime Minister could ruthlessly point out without ever quite overstepping the bounds of collegiality.
Incidentally, I think too many sensible posters get wound up by people they like and don't like. Southam's decision shouldn't hinge on what Boris does. Cyclefree's shouldn't hinge on Galloway. Decide on the issue FFS - it'll affect Britain long after both Boris and Galloway are in care homes.
I agree with that completely. But sometimes it's easier said than done - as I was guilty of myself not too many days ago.
I pity anyone working in a care home in the future who ever has to look after that pair though.
Does anyone know what the current top issues are for each group of voters at GE15? For Conservative GE15 voters is the economy ahead of immigration and welfare or something else? Ditto for Labour GE15 - my expectation for these voters is that the economy is of less importance to them.
Presumably Boris will finally pronounce today. Given the change of mood since Cameron's deal I am suspecting he will head for the In camp which given he has a europhile father , brother and sister is probably his natural home.
His wife won't be happy then. Could make for an interesting discussion across the breakfast table.
Considering the non-relevance to most people's lives of this referendum, shouldn't the value bet be on the percentage of the eligible electorate who will actually vote?
I will vote Leave just to be against Baw face and the Tories
It would be funny if Scotland voted to Leave while rUK Remained.....
George Galloway as the high point of the leave rally ?
C'est magnifique, mais ce n'est pas la guerre
I'm waiting for Gordon Brown as the high point of Remain.
No. The high point of the campaign when there's going to be a debate on the economy and what Remain and Brexit means for it.
Ozzy v Galloway.
Even you'll be backing Ozzy after that, as Galloway says any economic damages from Brexit will be made up by a special tax on Zionists.
Why would Ozzy debate Galloway ? Galloway isn't the shadow CoE and Osborne knows nothing about economics.
"I am not going to hide hard choices from the British people or bury them in the small print of the Budget documents. You're going to hear them straight from me, here in this speech. Our policy is to raise from the ruins of an economy built on debt a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export."
From the ONS:
"Year-on-year estimates of the quantity bought in the retail industry showed growth for the 33rd consecutive month in January 2016, increasing by 5.2% compared with January 2015."
By comparison manufacturing is 1.8% lower than a year ago and lower than when Osborne proclaimed the 'March of the Makers'.
Not to mention that the UK's current account deficit has more than doubled from 2010 or that the UK's household saving ration has more than halved from 2010.
Comments
My litmus tests are this: the ears of both Philip Thompson and Richard Nabavi pricked up ever so slightly when Gove came out for Leave yesterday. They'd have given him an audience.
Conversely, Cyclefree, and a few other soft Leavers, recoiled in horror last night when they heard about Galloway.
Yes, they are all generally centre/centre-right, but that's the battleground: both are swing electorates Leave has to win over to win.
That's the problem.
(..and who in God's earth listens to Galloway or respects him anyway?)
It's the creature of Aron Banks.
I certainly don't identify with it. For Vote Leave, I can imagine an influx of pissed off Kipperite activists who don't want to share a platform with Galloway.
I just read the last thread having missed all the fun. I'm astonished at GO tin ear here. And can see why several PBers are WTF.
It's perhaps worth remembering that they can still vote Leave by looking at who is in the Vote Leave team.
IIRC Carswell is in this one. I expect Gove will be too.
What decision the Electoral Commission makes doesn't matter to me much, but I sincerely hope it doesn't choose GO.
But if this continues...
There's surely a huge disconnect between the Labour leadership from Islington and Labour voters in the working classes directly affected by unlimited unskilled and semiskilled immigration.
VoteLeave must become the official organisation for Leave. They need to take the oxygen away from GO.
It will be all about presentation, and even if, as Mr Herdson, states, "it’s not a treaty so isn’t legally binding and, minor benefit changes aside, is largely a statement of intent that the ECJ can and probably will overrule.", the impact will depend on whether the hearer trusts the EU bureaucrats.
Having been fooled once (1975), I remain sceptical, but I now think Remain will win. It's the Establishment opinion and they have the advantages. Incidentally, the Establishment now includes the Labour Party, divorced from it's earlier roots.
Once victory is in the bag, the assurances will be sandcastles facing an incoming tide.
A political union is now certain.
Which political party does Galloway represent?
Cameron has persuaded them that this is serious, that he has a real fight to win and now is absolutely not the time for unhelpful noises off. I do wonder if the disclosure of Gove's position played a part in that and possibly he allowed that to be done.
Anyone who thinks Cameron and Osborne won't play a leading role in Remain is deluding themselves. As of this morning's cabinet meeting voting Remain will be the policy of their government. Those 2 saw enough less than glorious defeats in their early years as SPADs when the Tory party was being crushed by Blair for a life time. For them winning is what counts and they will do what it takes to do so.
This means we will see the same disciplined message and form of campaigning that Cameron has perfected in his career. In contrast, Leave cannot even agree whether Leave means leaving the EU, the EEA or planet earth. Alanbrooke is right that some will want to give the establishment a kicking but jeez, 51%?
People you've never heard of parading minor celebs in obscure venues late at night isn't actually going to change anything.
I'll stop.
the discontent will be more motivated to vote. But how many of them are there ?
GO doesn't get the crown by adding a non MP to its list from a Party that polled about 10k at GE2015.
http://grassrootsout.co.uk
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org
http://leave.eu
I really thought he had screwed up this time but as a politician he is exceptional and he has enough for his pitch. I'll be amazed if Boris thinks standing in front of the juggernaut is a good option.
"Cameron is going to be skewered when people ask him "if we can't agree - what happens then?"
Who will ask that question? The BBC won't. They try to be independent, but on some issues, they can't get their minds round why anyone would disagree. The European project is their version of Motherhood and Apple Pie.
Howling
Moaning.
Sorry, I'm a bit depressed this morning.
Full text of EU deal
Now I'm depressed. :-)
http://www.strongerin.co.uk
Is easier on the eyes - and the front page with Will Straw next to Richard Branson gives a better impression of 'cross party' than any of 'Barking, Howling or Moaning'......I think the worst that could be said for it is 'boring'.....even if they have appropriated red white and blue as their main colours....subtle, huh?
This vote is going to be 99% decided on people's gut reaction to the EU itself, it wont be what Dave says, it wont be what Farage says, and it sure as hell wont be what Galloway says. The polls have been MoE for weeks as much as we get excited about them. The status quo remains ,its going to be "immigrants" vs "jobs" and most people will have a settled view on that and had one for a long time. The result is going to be 50% +/- 5% at most and come down to differential turn out and GOTV. In reality as someone here put it a couple of days ago, Leave nutters vs Remain nutters.
Osborne calls it for remain
That's me decided then.
However the argument put by many on the left that we should stay in so we are protected from a conservative government is risible.
The british people should decide how they want their country run, in my opinion with a pr voting system, but either way the choice is about democracy.
So that is why I will not abstain and vote to leave.
You question the quote '51% want to give the establishment a kicking'. And I think you are right. The other day (as I have reminded people before) the BBC did a vox pop series of interviews on a high Street and the vast majority knew nothing meaningful about the negotiations. And this is despite the banner negative headlines spewed out by the press. Also someone in a focus group actually said 'why bother with the referendum now, just vote on it in parliament'.
All this hardly amounts to a seething mass of resentment.
And this is before people start to think about why on earth they should cut off their nose to spite their face.
Or run with a pack of pretty nondescript chancers.
Some people not least in the Labour Party may try to create some embarrassment for Cameron and be happy to reduce the issue to personalities and party advantage. They may even succeed and this is something which really ought to give genuine conservatives some pause for thought when it comes to doing Corbyn's dirty work for him.
As a REMAINER I fully expect to see public figures that I dislike (or consider to be unhelpful) making high profile appearances on my side of the debate too. Honestly - they'll balance each other out across REMAIN and LEAVE. I think it's just something that we'll all have to grin and bear to an extent. There are only two sides in a referendum, after all, so each is bound to be quite broad.
If you think you're suffering with George Galloway then spare a thought for we REMAINERS who've got the ridiculous Emma Thompson to shoot us all in the foot.
If anything if you can trust the opinion polls then thus has demonstrated the gulf between the true believing kick the establishment extreme and your average voter.
Remain in the North, Leave in the Republic but we're an all Ireland party.
Latest NI EUref voting intentions. Slight shift to Leave but Remain miles ahead.
http://sluggerotoole.com/2016/02/19/sunlucid-talk-poll-shows-majority-voting-to-stay-in-the-eu/
I get tweets from all the groups including Remain. GO are sending the most so far.
Cameron's negotiations should be about the real reforms EU needs: democratisation, workers’ rights, ending austerity & halting privatisation
'Ending Austerity'? Ask the Greeks or Portuguese how that's going....
'halting privatisation'? Isn't it the EU that forces the break up of state monopolies?
This will not improve for this this years offshore season and it is very unlikely it will improve next year to any great extent even if the oil price should start an early recovery. A sustained period of 60 to 70 plus on Brent crude will be required just to start companies even considering the unstacking of rigs and assets now warm and even cold stacked.
There is too much previous investment out there for some recovery not to occur but the use of the word "decommission" is becoming more and more commonplace than previously. The landscape for the North Sea and in particular for Scotland is going to look considerably different by the time this is over as many of the previous players may not return or may no longer be in existence. I would have thought this has to shape the approach of the SNP to any immediate and even mid term demands and aspirations they may have. Secretly the SNP would be breathing a collective sigh of relief as this would have been the wrong time, there will be better moments in the future for what they wish to achieve.
C'est magnifique, mais ce n'est pas la guerre, c'est de la folie
The only possible issue with Galloway is the one David Herdson highlights - he may repel Tory MPs. However, that's probably heavily outweighed by Gove's move. Amongst all the events of yesterday Leave finally got a credible leader. Not popular but a serious front-rank politician.
Uggh, now I need to wash my mind.
On the deal itself, sure some nice sounding noises about it, but as were reminded all the way through the negotiation, that's the way these things go. I don't say it is all a pantomime, or fake, but the late night meetings, the tough stances giving way to compromises and then grand statements which are then not as firm in text as pronouncements would have people believe? That's all part of the diplomatic operating procedure, so a good rule of thumb is that it is never as encouraging as things seemed in the announcement, and so if anyone was not sold on the announcement it will likely not get better and is a question of how much worse it is.
There are people- different in every case - who we listen to; and those who we revile.
Up until now our case has been quite well put; different messages for different audiences. And yes, George Galloway can have a role. But anyone who thinks that having Galloway on a stage addressing middle England will help us leave the EU is living in cloud cuckoo land.
Fortunately, as you say, no-one will have seen this, so far.
That's not the risk. The risk that our campaign continues to be utterly tone deaf.
Middle England is full of vague Remain-ers. Our task is to keep them at home. Putting George Galloway on stage makes that task harder.
Ozzy v Galloway.
Even you'll be backing Ozzy after that, as Galloway says any economic damages from Brexit will be made up by a special tax on Zionists.
It simply shows what we saw last night that the campaigns will create the strangest of bedfellows and the management of such will create lots of WTF moments.
Since the old left right axis doesn't work in this case campaigns will be presenting lots of teeth sucking moments where what motivates one half of their support alienates the other half.
So either we will end up with the blandest of the bland to offend no-one or one roller coaster of a communications programme.
Like it or not the Mail is read in paper form and online form by one hell of a lot of people and they won't be interested in the detail one way or another only the headline.
- that he's a successful, non political, businessman
and then
- there are those who've met him
But aside from all that, the events of the next few months will make questions about indexing child benefits look so trivial as to be laughable. The fundamentals are with Leave. But yeah Galloway, the horror the horror.
The main problem for Remain, it seems to me, is that they need a lot of votes from people who are not keen on Cameron. Just as Leave needs to avoid Farage fronting their effort, Remain needs to ensure it doesn't turn into a vote of confidence in Cameron. Southam Observer is a good example in his reaction - a moderate centre-left poster, not sure if he'll bother to oppose a nationalist-driven withdrawal from being part of the European Union.
Incidentally, I think too many sensible posters get wound up by people they like and don't like. Southam's decision shouldn't hinge on what Boris does. Cyclefree's shouldn't hinge on Galloway. Decide on the issue FFS - it'll affect Britain long after both Boris and Galloway are in care homes.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/02/christopher-howarth-an-analysis-of-camerons-deal-in-sum-theres-little-new-and-its-business-as-usual.html
Ryan Bourne
@SamCoatesTimes @DAaronovitch surely the real reason is Tories petrified of UKIP front group gaining this extensive voter data?
Less erses flying in etc
Had Major fallen in 1995, he would have been replaced by Hezza or Clarke.
The Parliamentary Party was probably closer to the Pro-EU wing than the Sceptics.
Plus Portillo was a complete flake, vacillating and be a sneak with the installation of those phone lines.
oh that is funny.
If EU stability pact rules applied to the UK we would have seen an entirely different level of cuts, higher unemployment and a smaller economy.
Apparently who invited Galloway is none of our business. https://t.co/TlW8qpli3X
Remain is safer for him, but no risk, no reward.
I pity anyone working in a care home in the future who ever has to look after that pair though.
For Conservative GE15 voters is the economy ahead of immigration and welfare or something else?
Ditto for Labour GE15 - my expectation for these voters is that the economy is of less importance to them.
@DouglasCarswell: Yay! An overwhelming majority of Ukip's 500 plus local councillors across the country have signed up for @vote_leave
Not brilliantly.
From the ONS:
"Year-on-year estimates of the quantity bought in the retail industry showed growth for the 33rd consecutive month in January 2016, increasing by 5.2% compared with January 2015."
By comparison manufacturing is 1.8% lower than a year ago and lower than when Osborne proclaimed the 'March of the Makers'.
Not to mention that the UK's current account deficit has more than doubled from 2010 or that the UK's household saving ration has more than halved from 2010.