politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gloomy numbers for LAB, Corbyn & even Cameron in latest Com

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeanT said:

The temptation for Boris is enormous.

If he decided to lead the LEAVE campaign - or even just figure "prominently" - he would probably take it to victory, or at least to very narrow defeat.

Either way, he would then be assured of the Tory leadership after Cameron's departure. The party would demand it.

And if it was a decisive Remain vote he would have gambled and lost. It is time that all the politicians campaign on their believes and not on their political futures, but maybe that is too much to ask

If as expected more than half the Conservatives members vote to Leave then that is a very powerful group to be on the right side of. All who join the Leave camp may almost have their careers guaranteed.

You are assuming in your scenario that after any successful Leave vote Cameron would resign sooner than later and further that irrespective of whenever any leadership election happened the membership would have a closed mind to any candidate who did not support Leave.
In short you are suggesting that the Referendum campaign is a proxy for the tory leadership or some pseudo general election campaign and not about the place of our country in the world.
You may be right, but it is a speculation which is merely based on a supposition.

SeanT said:

Michael Wood's TV series on China is very good. He nails it. What is happening to China is just another cycle in a 3000 year history of civilizational rise, fall, decline and rebirth. Right now they are on the ascent, after 300 years of diminution.

Communism is basically irrelevant. A weird political blip in the larger scheme of things.

Agree. It's both impressive and thought-provoking.

I'll be voting LEAVE because I believe in Britain.

How about you?

FrancisUrquhart said:

COUNCILS are spending hundreds of millions of pounds every year taking children of Eastern European migrant workers into care, despite growing calls for them to be looked after in their parents' home countries.

Figures obtained by The Telegraph suggest that up to 8,000 children of Eastern European origins have entered care proceedings in Britain in the last decade alone. The figures have nearly doubled in the last five years as the number of Eastern Europeans living in Britain has reached one million.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/12156044/Britain-takes-thousands-of-migrant-children-into-care.html

Off the top of my head (and my initial thought might be spectacularly wrong) this does not add up.
'hundreds' of millions 'every year' is being spent on 8000 children over 10 years.
This is 800 a year over the whole country.
The report also says ''The 2015 figures show that 2,500 children in the “White Other” are currently in the UK care system, either via children's homes, foster care or adoption. That compares with around 1,500 in 2006. The numbers of Gypsy Roma children also increased from 90 in 2011 to 250 in 2015.''
So of this 8000 figure over 10 years there are currently 2500 in the system which is costing 'hundreds' of millions.
Can this be true?
I do not say that these numbers are acceptable or that the children should not go back to their homeland.
I just wonder about the alleged costs. Does everything have to cost a billion these days?

surbiton said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

I'll be voting LEAVE because I believe in Britain.

How about you?

I'll be voting REMAIN because I believe in Britain in Europe [ and the World ].

I want trade and human movement barriers coming down everywhere. Any country not doing so should have to pay an extra tariff.

Don't you mean Britain in the European Union?

SeanT said:

Michael Wood's TV series on China is very good. He nails it. What is happening to China is just another cycle in a 3000 year history of civilizational rise, fall, decline and rebirth. Right now they are on the ascent, after 300 years of diminution.

Communism is basically irrelevant. A weird political blip in the larger scheme of things.

Almost any intelligent China-watcher in the late 19th century expected the country to be a superpower in the 20th. It had a vast population, lots of entrepreneurs and professionals, thousands of students studying abroad, the Manchus would either reform or be swept aside, and the country would take off. The Warlords and Mao retarded that development by about 80 years.

@feedthedrummer: Iain Duncan Smith has a lead of 7 points in approval ratings to Jeremy Corbyn. IAIN DUNCAN SMITH.

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

felix said:

The poll is yet another lesson for the twitterati and facebook fanatics that in the real world forget overpaid medics and the eurofanatics - Jo Public hates politicians but knows which side its bread is buttered when it comes to basic politics. Not a bad lesson also for a few on here.

This poll proves that I am right. As I predicted weeks ago, REMAIN will probably win, but it will come at an enormous cost: all the europhile establishment will be reviled, especially within the Tory party, as the emotional and patriotic backlash kicks in (cf Scotland after indyref, when the losing Nats benefited).

Labour can be ignored under Corbyn, the interesting stuff will happen to the Tories. I predict a peasants' revolt. The members will demand, and get, a very sceptic leader, and the whole referendum debate will begin once again, heading for a revote in 2025 or so.

Osborne will not be leader. The senior Tory who most successfully harnesses scepticism will lead.

Remain have already lost, at an emotional level. Very few people like the EU.

The argument is whether the lesser evil is to Leave or to Remain.

Personally I would much prefer that we lived on a different planet. I'm sure it would be much nicer there if we could just get there. Sadly...

Here’s the latest ComRes Opinion Poll. (Scotland Figures) SNP: 45% CON: 21% LAB: 14% LD: 10% UKIP: 6% GRN: 4%

surbiton said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Michael Wood's TV series on China is very good. He nails it. What is happening to China is just another cycle in a 3000 year history of civilizational rise, fall, decline and rebirth. Right now they are on the ascent, after 300 years of diminution.

Communism is basically irrelevant. A weird political blip in the larger scheme of things.

Almost any intelligent China-watcher in the late 19th century expected the country to be a superpower in the 20th. It had a vast population, lots of entrepreneurs and professionals, thousands of students studying abroad, the Manchus would either reform or be swept aside, and the country would take off. The Warlords and Mao retarded that development by about 80 years.

Maybe Britain and Opium had something to do with it.

Britain had turned against the Opium trade by the 1890s. China ought to have boomed, after 1900.

surbiton said:

flightpath01 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

COUNCILS are spending hundreds of millions of pounds every year taking children of Eastern European migrant workers into care, despite growing calls for them to be looked after in their parents' home countries.

Figures obtained by The Telegraph suggest that up to 8,000 children of Eastern European origins have entered care proceedings in Britain in the last decade alone. The figures have nearly doubled in the last five years as the number of Eastern Europeans living in Britain has reached one million.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/12156044/Britain-takes-thousands-of-migrant-children-into-care.html

Off the top of my head (and my initial thought might be spectacularly wrong) this does not add up.
'hundreds' of millions 'every year' is being spent on 8000 children over 10 years.
This is 800 a year over the whole country.
The report also says ''The 2015 figures show that 2,500 children in the “White Other” are currently in the UK care system, either via children's homes, foster care or adoption. That compares with around 1,500 in 2006. The numbers of Gypsy Roma children also increased from 90 in 2011 to 250 in 2015.''
So of this 8000 figure over 10 years there are currently 2500 in the system which is costing 'hundreds' of millions.
Can this be true?
I do not say that these numbers are acceptable or that the children should not go back to their homeland.
I just wonder about the alleged costs. Does everything have to cost a billion these days?

£2500 x 40000 = £100,000,000. You take your pick.

I am looking at the figure of 'hundreds' not 'one hundred'. Your figure may well be correct, but 'hundreds' to me is a figure not far short of 500 million.

surbiton said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Michael Wood's TV series on China is very good. He nails it. What is happening to China is just another cycle in a 3000 year history of civilizational rise, fall, decline and rebirth. Right now they are on the ascent, after 300 years of diminution.

Communism is basically irrelevant. A weird political blip in the larger scheme of things.

Almost any intelligent China-watcher in the late 19th century expected the country to be a superpower in the 20th. It had a vast population, lots of entrepreneurs and professionals, thousands of students studying abroad, the Manchus would either reform or be swept aside, and the country would take off. The Warlords and Mao retarded that development by about 80 years.

Maybe Britain and Opium had something to do with it.

Its revealing that the metropolitan leftist's pavlovian response is to always blame Britain for the failures of other countries.

So the voters think Labour are shite and doomed under Corbyn; Tories are pretty much on the right track; but Cameron has been slapped about the head with an enormo-haddock for taking them for fools.

Is that about right?

EPG said:

PB comments become visibly more tense when the contributors are actually politically divided for a change

It would perhaps be nice to take time out to discuss political betting events like the US and Irish elections. Unfortunately, the markets in the latter event are highly uncompetitive. I like the 4s generally available on Trump to make it to the White House especially now the race has evolved into New Hampshire winner v Iowa evangelical with the field straggling, a matchup which tends to go one way; furthermore, he has hardly abrogated a single word of his record of egregious political moderation outside identity issues (e.g. healthcare) and this will serve him well with both genders against a Clinton campaign which seems overeager to indulge in hectoring feminism against women

Sanders is even better value at 8/1, especially as he is competitive with Trump in general election polls

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn

I cannot see any circumstance that George Osborne will take over from David Cameron. Boris has not held a high profile cabinet position and until he does it is difficult to judge his competence. If the referendum goes ahead in June then until the result and the dust has settled I do not expect that a clear heir to Cameron will become obvious.

If it is Leave or close then the likes of Fox will come into play, Osborne will inevitably be a contendor as Chancellor as may Hammond as Foreign Secretary, Boris has been Mayor of the biggest city in the country so it is not as if he has had no responsibility at all!

The referendum campaign will give the opportunity to several conservatives to star in their role, on either side, and should make the succession, whenever it is, very interesting. I do not see George Osborne or Hammond succeeding and you do not mention Teresa May. Boris has been London mayor but it is a huge step to Prime Minister as that will be the position the successor to DC will enter

Yes, if the election of Tory leader is to immediately take over as PM they will need to be someone of sufficient stature and experience in government.

Theresa May would be a safe pair of hands if DC stands down in the next year or so, she also has the added bonus of making the lefty feminists go ballistic at a second Tory woman PM.

I cannot see Fox ascending. And if he did, I don't think I could vote for him, on the basis that he's an idiot.

He lost his position (quite rightly) due to idiocy, so I have to concur.

MarqueeMark said:

So the voters think Labour are shite and doomed under Corbyn; Tories are pretty much on the right track; but Cameron has been slapped about the head with an enormo-haddock for taking them for fools.

Is that about right?

We have an issue of the day being treated with crude self interest by the press. It goes with the job.

surbiton said:

MP_SE said:

surbiton said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

I'll be voting LEAVE because I believe in Britain.

How about you?

I'll be voting REMAIN because I believe in Britain in Europe [ and the World ].

I want trade and human movement barriers coming down everywhere. Any country not doing so should have to pay an extra tariff.

Don't you mean Britain in the European Union?

I prefer the use of the expression "Britain in Europe".

So you don't consider Norway to be part of Europe?

Interesting. Would you be interested in some lessons in basic geography?

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

felix said:

The poll is yet another lesson for the twitterati and facebook fanatics that in the real world forget overpaid medics and the eurofanatics - Jo Public hates politicians but knows which side its bread is buttered when it comes to basic politics. Not a bad lesson also for a few on here.

This poll proves that I am right. As I predicted weeks ago, REMAIN will probably win, but it will come at an enormous cost: all the europhile establishment will be reviled, especially within the Tory party, as the emotional and patriotic backlash kicks in (cf Scotland after indyref, when the losing Nats benefited).

Labour can be ignored under Corbyn, the interesting stuff will happen to the Tories. I predict a peasants' revolt. The members will demand, and get, a very sceptic leader, and the whole referendum debate will begin once again, heading for a revote in 2025 or so.

Osborne will not be leader. The senior Tory who most successfully harnesses scepticism will lead.

Remain have already lost, at an emotional level. Very few people like the EU.

The argument is whether the lesser evil is to Leave or to Remain.

Yes but as indyref showed Referendums are rarely won on an emotional level

surbiton said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

I'll be voting LEAVE because I believe in Britain.

How about you?

I'll be voting REMAIN because I believe in Britain in Europe [ and the World ].

I want trade and human movement barriers coming down everywhere. Any country not doing so should have to pay an extra tariff.

What happens when they all come here, the infrastructure breaks down the schools are full to bursting and the NHS is overrun into collapse, the rule of law breaks down and anarchy reigns?

That's a genuine question by the way.....

Moses_ said:

surbiton said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

I'll be voting LEAVE because I believe in Britain.

How about you?

I'll be voting REMAIN because I believe in Britain in Europe [ and the World ].

I want trade and human movement barriers coming down everywhere. Any country not doing so should have to pay an extra tariff.

What happens when they all come here, the infrastructure breaks down the schools are full to bursting and the NHS is overrun into collapse, the rule of law breaks down and anarchy reigns?

That's a genuine question by the way.....

Zombie apocalypse?

felix said:

Sean_F said:

felix said:

Sean_F said:

felix said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

felix said:

The poll is yet another lesson for the twitterati and facebook fanatics that in the real world forget overpaid medics and the eurofanatics - Jo Public hates politicians but knows which side its bread is buttered when it comes to basic politics. Not a bad lesson also for a few on here.

This poll proves that I am right. As I predicted weeks ago, REMAIN will probably win, but it will come at an enormous cost: all the europhile establishment will be reviled, especially within the Tory party, as the emotional and patriotic backlash kicks in (cf Scotland after indyref, when the losing Nats benefited).

Labour can be ignored under Corbyn, the interesting stuff will happen to the Tories. I predict a peasants' revolt. The members will demand, and get, a very sceptic leader, and the whole referendum debate will begin once again, heading for a revote in 2025 or so.

Osborne will not be leader. The senior Tory who most successfully harnesses scepticism will lead.

Remain have already lost, at an emotional level. Very few people like the EU.

The argument is whether the lesser evil is to Leave or to Remain.

I'm not sure the polling shows that but even if it does you sound like the obverse of the trendy lefties on twitter with such silly remarks.

What's silly about it?

You may like the EU, but outside the circle of ex-pats living in Spain, that's a very small proportion of the electorate.

It's silly to talk about 'liking' in that way. lots of silly teachers want their students to 'like' them - it's not what the job's all about. Same with the EU - who cares about whether it is 'liked' - maybe it's enough to be the best of a bad job. Most of the ex-pats in spain are likke everyone else they don't 'like' politics, political institutions, or much else for that matter. their votes will be governed by self-interest. Must say I used to think you were a more serious contributor.

I can see I've touched a raw nerve.

Political campaigns appeal to emotion and reason. At the emotional level, Remain have lost. At the rational level, everything is still to play for.

My nerves are untouched and your comments remain silly and meaningless. You'll be telling us next how UKIP really 'won' in May because Nige is so 'likeable'. You'd have more fun on twitter.

I don't know why my completely unexceptional comments are bugging you so much.

How low can Corbyn go?

@GdnPolitics: Jeremy Corbyn set to condemn Tory limits on EU migration https://t.co/myAZUYdpPR

Scott_P said:

How low can Corbyn go?

@GdnPolitics: Jeremy Corbyn set to condemn Tory limits on EU migration https://t.co/myAZUYdpPR

I am convinced he is a long term Tory sleeper agent. I mean how can anybody look at every decision and think which side of the argument will be the most unpopular and go for it. But then he is as thick as two short planks, goes to one of the best publicly funded schools in the country and get 2 E's.

felix said:

Sean_F said:

felix said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

felix said:

The poll is yet another lesson for the twitterati and facebook fanatics that in the real world forget overpaid medics and the eurofanatics - Jo Public hates politicians but knows which side its bread is buttered when it comes to basic politics. Not a bad lesson also for a few on here.

This poll proves that I am right. As I predicted weeks ago, REMAIN will probably win, but it will come at an enormous cost: all the europhile establishment will be reviled, especially within the Tory party, as the emotional and patriotic backlash kicks in (cf Scotland after indyref, when the losing Nats benefited).

Labour can be ignored under Corbyn, the interesting stuff will happen to the Tories. I predict a peasants' revolt. The members will demand, and get, a very sceptic leader, and the whole referendum debate will begin once again, heading for a revote in 2025 or so.

Osborne will not be leader. The senior Tory who most successfully harnesses scepticism will lead.

Remain have already lost, at an emotional level. Very few people like the EU.

The argument is whether the lesser evil is to Leave or to Remain.

I'm not sure the polling shows that but even if it does you sound like the obverse of the trendy lefties on twitter with such silly remarks.

What's silly about it?

You may like the EU, but outside the circle of ex-pats living in Spain, that's a very small proportion of the electorate.

It's silly to talk about 'liking' in that way. lots of silly teachers want their students to 'like' them - it's not what the job's all about. Same with the EU - who cares about whether it is 'liked' - maybe it's enough to be the best of a bad job. Most of the ex-pats in spain are likke everyone else they don't 'like' politics, political institutions, or much else for that matter. their votes will be governed by self-interest. Must say I used to think you were a more serious contributor.

The EU are desperate to be liked as political union is not possible without there being a pan-EU identity.

It looks official:

https://twitter.com/evanasmith/status/698628077581004800

Well, this changes everything

TheScreamingEagles said:

Antonin Scalia has died. That's going to complicate the primaries.

The debate is just 3 hours away, we will see the impact first hand.
But who does this favour?

Sean_F said:

Political campaigns appeal to emotion and reason. At the emotional level, Remain have lost. At the rational level, everything is still to play for.

I think you are right. Remain lost on an emotional level years ago. That's in essence why I think Leave will win, beyond anything to do with migration.

Of course you're also right that there's a rational side to this and that Remain can still win that, so it's not free money.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

I'll be voting LEAVE because I believe in Britain.

How about you?

A Corbynista for Leave, interesting!

I voted for Corbyn to improve the chances of a Tory victory in 2020

What happened to believing in Britain? You helped to lumber our country with a disastrous Leader of the Opposition.

LEAVE = The Resistance
EU = The First Order

LEAVE = The crew of Starship Enterprise
EU = The Borg

Moses_ said:

surbiton said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

I'll be voting LEAVE because I believe in Britain.

How about you?

I'll be voting REMAIN because I believe in Britain in Europe [ and the World ].

I want trade and human movement barriers coming down everywhere. Any country not doing so should have to pay an extra tariff.

What happens when they all come here, the infrastructure breaks down the schools are full to bursting and the NHS is overrun into collapse, the rule of law breaks down and anarchy reigns?

That's a genuine question by the way.....

He'll proberly emigrate.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeanT said:

The temptation for Boris is enormous.

If he decided to lead the LEAVE campaign - or even just figure "prominently" - he would probably take it to victory, or at least to very narrow defeat.

Either way, he would then be assured of the Tory leadership after Cameron's departure. The party would demand it.

And if it was a decisive Remain vote he would have gambled and lost. It is time that all the politicians campaign on their believes and not on their political futures, but maybe that is too much to ask

If as expected more than half the Conservatives members vote to Leave then that is a very powerful group to be on the right side of. All who join the Leave camp may almost have their careers guaranteed.

I think the word is almost - it seems the leave campaign think they have the momentum but by next weekend many unknown factors should have materialised and at that point all careers may be on the line

Just as well cammo is stepping down... shame labour can't cling to that...

Come on spurs, England and England. Let's have a good one tomorrow pretty please.

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Antonin Scalia has died. That's going to complicate the primaries.

Obama has less than one year in which to get a nomination through the Senate. I think this complicates the Senate campaigns more than the nomination, and perhaps will help drive Dem turnout up. That being the case, they may take the Senate and so protect the new Dem majority (counting Stevens as Dem these days) in the Supreme Court for at least two more years.

It will focus attention on what Rubio and Cruz do in the Senate.
But the Supreme Court Senate battle won't start soon, perhaps Obama will wait after the early primaries.

How will this affect the presidential race?
Well Rubio and Cruz will be forced to be pushed even further to the right, but it undercuts the argument that the next president will appoint supreme court replacements since it's too late for that, Obama will get the opportunity now, it ruins Hillary's point too.

felix said:

@Sean F

You never will either - I believe many on the left don't get why people vote Tory - it's a mystery...However, if it makes you feel better we can agree about your comments being 'unexceptional'

Not sure if you intended it to sound this way but it does sound like you are claiming Sean is on the Left. This is very much not the case. Until Recently Sean was one of the Tory party's staunchest defenders. It appears to be Cameron's policy on the EU that has driven Sean out, just as it did many more of us.

surbiton said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

surbiton said:

MP_SE said:

surbiton said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

I'll be voting LEAVE because I believe in Britain.

How about you?

I'll be voting REMAIN because I believe in Britain in Europe [ and the World ].

I want trade and human movement barriers coming down everywhere. Any country not doing so should have to pay an extra tariff.

Don't you mean Britain in the European Union?

I prefer the use of the expression "Britain in Europe".

So you don't consider Norway to be part of Europe?

Interesting. Would you be interested in some lessons in basic geography?

Why do you bring the stupid referendum into everything ? REMAIN will win by over 20 points in any case.

I want Britain in Europe because I want Britain to think it is in Europe like, e.g.Turkey.

It is impossible for Britain to leave Europe. Britain will be in Europe whether it is a member of the EU or not.

Richard_Tyndall said:

felix said:

@Sean F

You never will either - I believe many on the left don't get why people vote Tory - it's a mystery...However, if it makes you feel better we can agree about your comments being 'unexceptional'

Not sure if you intended it to sound this way but it does sound like you are claiming Sean is on the Left. This is very much not the case. Until Recently Sean was one of the Tory party's staunchest defenders. It appears to be Cameron's policy on the EU that has driven Sean out, just as it did many more of us.

I'm hoping you'll claim montie too before much longer... he's such a bore.

MarqueeMark said:

I'm still not sure how Scalia's death affects the Presidential race. Unless Trump says he'll fill the vacancy by appointing his horse.....

It diminishes the importance of the presidential race a bit.
The focus will turn on Senate electoral battles, Rubio retiring from the Senate looks less smart.