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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gloomy numbers for LAB, Corbyn & even Cameron in latest Com

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  • Pulpstar said:

    Twitter.

    This is the first Supreme Court vacancy under a Democratic president and a Republican Senate since 1888.

    Someone just chucked a match onto the POTUS race.
    Indeed. Will make tonight's debate interesting. Just look at Ted Cruz's tweet tonight.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,346

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    First reaction from the candidates:

    Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 7m7 minutes ago
    The totally unexpected loss of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia is a massive setback for the Conservative movement and our COUNTRY!

    Ted Cruz ‏@tedcruz 15m15 minutes ago
    Justice Scalia was an American hero. We owe it to him, & the Nation, for the Senate to ensure that the next President names his replacement.

    I'm out till the debate, where as always will try to live comment on it on PB.

    Cruz emphasises that the *next* president appoint his successor. Obama has a year or so left in office which is more than enough time in normal circumstances.

    (Can he appoint himself? Obama was a constitutional law professor in his former life.)
    Separation of powers. He can't be concurrently POTUS and Chief Justice.

    Taft is the only POTUS who became Supreme Court Justice (after a gap of eight years)
    Is that codified?
    Yup. You can only work for one branch of government at any one time.
    How does that gel with the VP? He's Speaker in the Senate isn't he?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This could change everything.

    Leeds United have started legal action against the Football League in an attempt to dismantle the collective selling of TV rights and win the right to sell their own games, The Mail on Sunday can reveal.


    http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/sport/football/article-3445896/Massimo-Cellino-new-fury-Leeds-United-owner-launches-bid-break-clubs-100m-television-deal.html

    Aren't Virgin pursing some legal avenues as well?
    Kinda. They want to make all 380 Premier League matches live on TV in England
    TBH, even with the mega deal the premier league got, I can see them being interested in this. With internet and how cheap it is to have a satellite channel, a system like they have in the NFL could easily work in the UK and be very very lucrative.
    I think we'll see club season tickets. Something like £100 per season to watch all your team's matches.
    How much not to watch them? That was torture today.
    It was rather considerate of Man U to put such space between us and 5th place. Champions League now nailed on!
    We have no chance of making the top 4 now which will make the job of the next manager attracting the right quality of players much harder. LVG has been a bit of a disaster I'm afraid although in fairness to him the quality of the squad he inherited left much to be desired.

    Anyway Leicester should have their minds on much higher things than the top 4. Carpe diem.
    LVG's problem is that apart from Martial none of the £250 million spent has turned up even one World class player. He is hopeless and needs to go, the sooner the better. It reminds me of coming home from matches in the 1980's with my daughter in tears in the back of the car.
    It is depressing. Schweinsteiger and Schneiderlin both look a total waste of money and Depay (who in fairness added marginally more purpose to the general meandering forward when he came on today) is struggling to get in the team. I am really not sure about Darmian either. But it is Di Maria which still sticks in the craw. It made Fernando Torres look like a shrewd investment for Chelsea.
    Also Falcao, Rojo,
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,346
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    First reaction from the candidates:

    Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 7m7 minutes ago
    The totally unexpected loss of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia is a massive setback for the Conservative movement and our COUNTRY!

    Ted Cruz ‏@tedcruz 15m15 minutes ago
    Justice Scalia was an American hero. We owe it to him, & the Nation, for the Senate to ensure that the next President names his replacement.

    I'm out till the debate, where as always will try to live comment on it on PB.

    Cruz emphasises that the *next* president appoint his successor. Obama has a year or so left in office which is more than enough time in normal circumstances.

    (Can he appoint himself? Obama was a constitutional law professor in his former life.)
    Separation of powers. He can't be concurrently POTUS and Chief Justice.

    Taft is the only POTUS who became Supreme Court Justice (after a gap of eight years)
    Is that codified?
    Yup. You can only work for one branch of government at any one time.
    How does that gel with the VP? He's Speaker in the Senate isn't he?
    Actually, I may be thinking of the oldest senator who is after the VP in succession.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    First reaction from the candidates:

    Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 7m7 minutes ago
    The totally unexpected loss of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia is a massive setback for the Conservative movement and our COUNTRY!

    Ted Cruz ‏@tedcruz 15m15 minutes ago
    Justice Scalia was an American hero. We owe it to him, & the Nation, for the Senate to ensure that the next President names his replacement.

    I'm out till the debate, where as always will try to live comment on it on PB.

    Cruz emphasises that the *next* president appoint his successor. Obama has a year or so left in office which is more than enough time in normal circumstances.

    (Can he appoint himself? Obama was a constitutional law professor in his former life.)
    Separation of powers. He can't be concurrently POTUS and Chief Justice.

    Taft is the only POTUS who became Supreme Court Justice (after a gap of eight years)
    Is that codified?
    Yup. You can only work for one branch of government at any one time.
    How does that gel with the VP? He's Speaker in the Senate isn't he?
    He's the President of the Senate, which is specified in the constitution/amendments. Is the only exception I think, to break ties in the Senate.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    First reaction from the candidates:

    Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 7m7 minutes ago
    The totally unexpected loss of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia is a massive setback for the Conservative movement and our COUNTRY!

    Ted Cruz ‏@tedcruz 15m15 minutes ago
    Justice Scalia was an American hero. We owe it to him, & the Nation, for the Senate to ensure that the next President names his replacement.

    I'm out till the debate, where as always will try to live comment on it on PB.

    Cruz emphasises that the *next* president appoint his successor. Obama has a year or so left in office which is more than enough time in normal circumstances.

    (Can he appoint himself? Obama was a constitutional law professor in his former life.)
    Separation of powers. He can't be concurrently POTUS and Chief Justice.

    Taft is the only POTUS who became Supreme Court Justice (after a gap of eight years)
    Is that codified?
    Yup. You can only work for one branch of government at any one time.
    How does that gel with the VP? He's Speaker in the Senate isn't he?
    Actually, I may be thinking of the oldest senator who is after the VP in succession.
    That's the President Pro Tempore of the Senate
  • twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/698633306770956294

    Headlines which once again fail to match the story. A relatively small 'wallpaper company' which Osborne gets £1200 a year in dividends from.
    Are dividends taxed?
    Are directors salaries taxed?
    Presumably according to the other income that shareholders and directors receive then this income will be taxed at 40% at least as opposed to 20% corporation tax
    Are profits of £722,000 on a turnover of £34 million significant to warrant a comparison with companies turning over billions? On that sort of effort we can see why it has made losses in previous years.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,297
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    The temptation for Boris is enormous.

    If he decided to lead the LEAVE campaign - or even just figure "prominently" - he would probably take it to victory, or at least to very narrow defeat.

    Either way, he would then be assured of the Tory leadership after Cameron's departure. The party would demand it.

    The problem is that Boris is on record being very pro EU at various City events as Mayor. He'll look like an opportunist flip flopper, if he suddenly decides that Out is best.
    Yes, he'd lose a LOT of friends in the City and the arts and elsewhere. He'd have to get used to being unpopular, with important and influential people, for the first time in his life.

    But the prize is correspondingly huge.
    I wasn't so much thinking about it from that point of view: I was thinking that if a video of a speech were to come to light where Boris proclaimed his affection for the EU, it might make him look like a bit of a fraud, to people on both sides of the referendum question. Rather than elevating him, it could drag him down,
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    T
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway that apparently useless incompetent Osborne has managed to deliver full employment: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12155324/UK-unemployment-on-course-to-fall-to-fresh-ten-year-low.html

    At 5% we are at frictional unemployment levels. It is an astonishing achievement, especially when it is considered how many of the new jobs have gone to immigrants, the unemployed of other EU countries and the reductions in the head count in the public sector.

    But I am sure the usual suspects will be along shortly to point out he missed targets set in a budget speech in 2010 or something equally heinous.

    Or that the equally incompetent Gordon Brown presided over similar or lower levels.
    Only by boosting the public sector headcount to record and unsustainable levels.
    While it appears flippant, its a really serious point. As he ramped up public spending he ramped up the public payroll. Its pretty extraordinary that we have seen the private sector generate so much extra jobs.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    First reaction from the candidates:

    Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 7m7 minutes ago
    The totally unexpected loss of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia is a massive setback for the Conservative movement and our COUNTRY!

    Ted Cruz ‏@tedcruz 15m15 minutes ago
    Justice Scalia was an American hero. We owe it to him, & the Nation, for the Senate to ensure that the next President names his replacement.

    I'm out till the debate, where as always will try to live comment on it on PB.

    Cruz emphasises that the *next* president appoint his successor. Obama has a year or so left in office which is more than enough time in normal circumstances.

    (Can he appoint himself? Obama was a constitutional law professor in his former life.)
    Separation of powers. He can't be concurrently POTUS and Chief Justice.

    Taft is the only POTUS who became Supreme Court Justice (after a gap of eight years)
    Is that codified?
    Yup. You can only work for one branch of government at any one time.
    How does that gel with the VP? He's Speaker in the Senate isn't he?
    He's the President of the Senate, which is specified in the constitution/amendments. Is the only exception I think, to break ties in the Senate.
    Disputed as to whether it breaks the rule as the constitution does not define which branch of government the veep is part of, and his role as President of the Senate is the only function mentioned in the constitution. From wikipedia:

    "While the vice president's only constitutionally prescribed functions aside from presidential succession relate to their role as President of the Senate, the office is commonly viewed as a component of the executive branch of the federal government. The United States Constitution does not expressly assign the office to any one branch"
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    First reaction from the candidates:

    Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 7m7 minutes ago
    The totally unexpected loss of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia is a massive setback for the Conservative movement and our COUNTRY!

    Ted Cruz ‏@tedcruz 15m15 minutes ago
    Justice Scalia was an American hero. We owe it to him, & the Nation, for the Senate to ensure that the next President names his replacement.

    I'm out till the debate, where as always will try to live comment on it on PB.

    Cruz emphasises that the *next* president appoint his successor. Obama has a year or so left in office which is more than enough time in normal circumstances.

    (Can he appoint himself? Obama was a constitutional law professor in his former life.)
    Separation of powers. He can't be concurrently POTUS and Chief Justice.

    Taft is the only POTUS who became Supreme Court Justice (after a gap of eight years)
    Is that codified?
    Yup. You can only work for one branch of government at any one time.
    Obama could appoint himself. There is no Constitutional bar.

    Whether the Senate would confirm it is another matter...
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    First reaction from the candidates:

    Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 7m7 minutes ago
    The totally unexpected loss of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia is a massive setback for the Conservative movement and our COUNTRY!

    Ted Cruz ‏@tedcruz 15m15 minutes ago
    Justice Scalia was an American hero. We owe it to him, & the Nation, for the Senate to ensure that the next President names his replacement.

    I'm out till the debate, where as always will try to live comment on it on PB.

    Cruz emphasises that the *next* president appoint his successor. Obama has a year or so left in office which is more than enough time in normal circumstances.

    (Can he appoint himself? Obama was a constitutional law professor in his former life.)
    Separation of powers. He can't be concurrently POTUS and Chief Justice.

    Taft is the only POTUS who became Supreme Court Justice (after a gap of eight years)
    Is that codified?
    Yup. You can only work for one branch of government at any one time.
    How does that gel with the VP? He's Speaker in the Senate isn't he?
    He's the President of the Senate, which is specified in the constitution/amendments. Is the only exception I think, to break ties in the Senate.
    It's not really an exception, it is part of his job description. The two roles are indivisible.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    notme said:

    T

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway that apparently useless incompetent Osborne has managed to deliver full employment: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12155324/UK-unemployment-on-course-to-fall-to-fresh-ten-year-low.html

    At 5% we are at frictional unemployment levels. It is an astonishing achievement, especially when it is considered how many of the new jobs have gone to immigrants, the unemployed of other EU countries and the reductions in the head count in the public sector.

    But I am sure the usual suspects will be along shortly to point out he missed targets set in a budget speech in 2010 or something equally heinous.

    Or that the equally incompetent Gordon Brown presided over similar or lower levels.
    Only by boosting the public sector headcount to record and unsustainable levels.
    While it appears flippant, its a really serious point. As he ramped up public spending he ramped up the public payroll. Its pretty extraordinary that we have seen the private sector generate so much extra jobs.
    But a large part of the drop unemployment is not private sector job creation, but is actually supposedly "self-employed" people who are really unemployed but want to make themselves eligible for tax credits.

    Which is why the Tories should consider it a blessing in disguise that they were forced to scrap the tax credit cuts: they would've led to a significant rise in the official unemployment rate due to the "self-employed" loophole being shut.
  • twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/698633306770956294

    Headlines which once again fail to match the story. A relatively small 'wallpaper company' which Osborne gets £1200 a year in dividends from.
    Are dividends taxed?
    Are directors salaries taxed?
    Presumably according to the other income that shareholders and directors receive then this income will be taxed at 40% at least as opposed to 20% corporation tax
    Are profits of £722,000 on a turnover of £34 million significant to warrant a comparison with companies turning over billions? On that sort of effort we can see why it has made losses in previous years.

    What I actually learned from that article was just how little Osborne has of his family firm, and that is his only outside interest. The way it has been reported before makes it sound like he actually has a significant stake, when in reality it isn't even really worth calling a "stake", more a token gesture.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,297
    Pong said:

    Just topped up on POTUS Cruz before tonight's debate @ ~21/1.

    Looks to me like the conversation has just moved onto his turf.

    Current book;

    GOP;

    Cruz +£4230
    Everyone else +-£/0

    POTUS;

    Clinton -£120
    Sanders -£300
    Rubio +£1870
    Donald +£9150
    Cruz +£11k
    Romney +£50k
    Ryan +£250k
    Everyone else >+£2000

    The states that Santorum won in 2012 were:

    Iowa
    Colorado
    Minnesota
    Missouri
    North Dakota
    Tennessee
    Kansas
    Alabama
    Mississippi
    Louisiana

    I could see Cruz also getting Texas (although I think he'll lose Colorado and Minnesota). What's his path to the nomination?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,346
    RodCrosby said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    First reaction from the candidates:

    Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 7m7 minutes ago
    The totally unexpected loss of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia is a massive setback for the Conservative movement and our COUNTRY!

    Ted Cruz ‏@tedcruz 15m15 minutes ago
    Justice Scalia was an American hero. We owe it to him, & the Nation, for the Senate to ensure that the next President names his replacement.

    I'm out till the debate, where as always will try to live comment on it on PB.

    Cruz emphasises that the *next* president appoint his successor. Obama has a year or so left in office which is more than enough time in normal circumstances.

    (Can he appoint himself? Obama was a constitutional law professor in his former life.)
    Separation of powers. He can't be concurrently POTUS and Chief Justice.

    Taft is the only POTUS who became Supreme Court Justice (after a gap of eight years)
    Is that codified?
    Yup. You can only work for one branch of government at any one time.
    Obama could appoint himself. There is no Constitutional bar.

    Whether the Senate would confirm it is another matter...
    Also I don't think there is a minimum number of justices, so he could set it to one (somehow), and let attrition take care of the rest. :p
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,346
    Any live feed of the debate today?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,346

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    First reaction from the candidates:

    Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 7m7 minutes ago
    The totally unexpected loss of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia is a massive setback for the Conservative movement and our COUNTRY!

    Ted Cruz ‏@tedcruz 15m15 minutes ago
    Justice Scalia was an American hero. We owe it to him, & the Nation, for the Senate to ensure that the next President names his replacement.

    I'm out till the debate, where as always will try to live comment on it on PB.

    Cruz emphasises that the *next* president appoint his successor. Obama has a year or so left in office which is more than enough time in normal circumstances.

    (Can he appoint himself? Obama was a constitutional law professor in his former life.)
    Separation of powers. He can't be concurrently POTUS and Chief Justice.

    Taft is the only POTUS who became Supreme Court Justice (after a gap of eight years)
    Is that codified?
    Yup. You can only work for one branch of government at any one time.
    How does that gel with the VP? He's Speaker in the Senate isn't he?
    He's the President of the Senate, which is specified in the constitution/amendments. Is the only exception I think, to break ties in the Senate.
    It's not really an exception, it is part of his job description. The two roles are indivisible.
    Until someone divides them :p
  • Pulpstar said:

    Twitter.

    This is the first Supreme Court vacancy under a Democratic president and a Republican Senate since 1888.

    Someone just chucked a match onto the POTUS race.
    Oh spare us, you would think a Supreme Court Judge had never needed to be nominated before.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,346
    edited February 2016

    Pulpstar said:

    Twitter.

    This is the first Supreme Court vacancy under a Democratic president and a Republican Senate since 1888.

    Someone just chucked a match onto the POTUS race.
    Oh spare us, you would think a Supreme Court Judge had never needed to be nominated before.
    Wait, don't the other justices get a shot at it? I thought the Chief Justice wasn't a real post in the constitutional sense.

    Gosh I'm really not with it today. Not sure why I thought he was Chief Justice lol.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    Any live feed of the debate today?

    It's streamed live on CBSN.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    New S.C poll:

    ARG. S.C.

    Trump 35
    Kasich 15
    Rubio 14
    Cruz 12
    Bush 10
    Carson 2

    It seems that Porn Star stuff hurt Cruz.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,346
    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Any live feed of the debate today?

    It's streamed live on CBSN.
    Thanks. I don't have a telly so rely on the old internet these days :p
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Speedy said:

    New S.C poll:

    ARG. S.C.

    Trump 35
    Kasich 15
    Rubio 14
    Cruz 12
    Bush 10
    Carson 2

    Kasich ahead of Cruz in SOUTH CAROLINA? Hmmm....
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Danny565 said:

    Speedy said:

    New S.C poll:

    ARG. S.C.

    Trump 35
    Kasich 15
    Rubio 14
    Cruz 12
    Bush 10
    Carson 2

    Kasich ahead of Cruz in SOUTH CAROLINA? Hmmm....
    It looks like a repetition of N.H.
    Trump 20 points ahead, everyone else scrambling for second place.

    Of course that was before tonight's debate and the Supreme Court drama.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Danny565 said:

    notme said:

    T

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway that apparently useless incompetent Osborne has managed to deliver full employment: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12155324/UK-unemployment-on-course-to-fall-to-fresh-ten-year-low.html

    At 5% we are at frictional unemployment levels. It is an astonishing achievement, especially when it is considered how many of the new jobs have gone to immigrants, the unemployed of other EU countries and the reductions in the head count in the public sector.

    But I am sure the usual suspects will be along shortly to point out he missed targets set in a budget speech in 2010 or something equally heinous.

    Or that the equally incompetent Gordon Brown presided over similar or lower levels.
    Only by boosting the public sector headcount to record and unsustainable levels.
    While it appears flippant, its a really serious point. As he ramped up public spending he ramped up the public payroll. Its pretty extraordinary that we have seen the private sector generate so much extra jobs.
    But a large part of the drop unemployment is not private sector job creation, but is actually supposedly "self-employed" people who are really unemployed but want to make themselves eligible for tax credits.

    Which is why the Tories should consider it a blessing in disguise that they were forced to scrap the tax credit cuts: they would've led to a significant rise in the official unemployment rate due to the "self-employed" loophole being shut.
    The "self employed" loophole was deliberate by Brown, but yes, it is a masquerade, with self employed people use the tax credit thresholds to lower their declared income. But that has now changed, you cant fiddle the system with UC, you need to show that your self employed income is viable at paying minimum wage.

    PS. Self employed stats, while you may gain comfort in trying to pour cold water on the stunning employment numbers, you will be surprised to know, that while self employment is now 16%, and it was only 12% in 2008, however in 1995 it was about 14%. The big change came when the government made it tax efficient to incorporate into a LTD company, giving every director a £10k a year corporation tax free allowance...

    Brown an number of years later changed the rules, so with the current growth in self employment we haven't seen a corresponding increase in incorporation.
  • 21% good deal 58% not a good deal is one in three for good deal? surely a lot closer to one in four?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016
    Swedish Social Democrats have just recorded their worst ever poll rating, 21.1%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_general_election,_2018#Poll_results
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Swedish Social Democrats have just recorded their worst ever poll rating, 21.1%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_general_election,_2018#Poll_results

    Faux socialist parties have no reason to exist.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    While burning time until the debate starts, something for HYUFD, he loves precedents:

    Newt GingrichVerified account ‏@newtgingrich 37m37 minutes ago
    Washington and lee mock convention nominated Trump for president. They have been right about every gop nominee in since Eisenhower in 1952.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,931
    edited February 2016
    ARG Poll of SC
    Bush 10%
    Carson 2%
    Cruz 12%
    Kasich 15%
    Rubio 14%
    Trump 35%
    Other 2%
    Undecided 10%
    http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/screp.htm

    Trump with a commanding lead but bad poll for Bush and Cruz and a very good poll for Kasich
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,931
    Speedy said:

    While burning time until the debate starts, something for HYUFD, he loves precedents:

    Newt GingrichVerified account ‏@newtgingrich 37m37 minutes ago
    Washington and lee mock convention nominated Trump for president. They have been right about every gop nominee in since Eisenhower in 1952.

    I doubt they will be wrong this year either!
  • Danny565 said:

    notme said:

    T

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyway that apparently useless incompetent Osborne has managed to deliver full employment: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12155324/UK-unemployment-on-course-to-fall-to-fresh-ten-year-low.html

    At 5% we are at frictional unemployment levels. It is an astonishing achievement, especially when it is considered how many of the new jobs have gone to immigrants, the unemployed of other EU countries and the reductions in the head count in the public sector.

    But I am sure the usual suspects will be along shortly to point out he missed targets set in a budget speech in 2010 or something equally heinous.

    Or that the equally incompetent Gordon Brown presided over similar or lower levels.
    Only by boosting the public sector headcount to record and unsustainable levels.
    While it appears flippant, its a really serious point. As he ramped up public spending he ramped up the public payroll. Its pretty extraordinary that we have seen the private sector generate so much extra jobs.
    But a large part of the drop unemployment is not private sector job creation, but is actually supposedly "self-employed" people who are really unemployed but want to make themselves eligible for tax credits.

    Which is why the Tories should consider it a blessing in disguise that they were forced to scrap the tax credit cuts: they would've led to a significant rise in the official unemployment rate due to the "self-employed" loophole being shut.
    Unlike Brown, Osborne doesn't want people to be so-called employed but really just paid by the state for something that isn't productive, hence the massive drop in the public payroll.

    While we have Full Employment is the best time imaginable to get rid of dead fake employment and get people to either set up a productive business that works or get a real job.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2016



    While we have Full Employment is the best time imaginable to get rid of dead fake employment and get people to either set up a productive business that works or get a real job.

    But we don't -- because the only reason the official figures are at "full employment" is precisely because of the faux self-employed. There aren't enough real jobs in the economy to go round.
  • Danny565 said:



    While we have Full Employment is the best time imaginable to get rid of dead fake employment and get people to either set up a productive business that works or get a real job.

    But we don't -- because the only reason the official figures are at "full employment" is precisely because of the faux self-employed. There aren't enough real jobs in the economy to go round.
    We do have Full Employment, it is official. Whether the jobs are productive or not is neither here nor there. There are enough real jobs, if people go onto the job market they can and are finding jobs.

    It is time for fake jobs to go away. If they do, we'll still no doubt have Full Employment now.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:



    While we have Full Employment is the best time imaginable to get rid of dead fake employment and get people to either set up a productive business that works or get a real job.

    But we don't -- because the only reason the official figures are at "full employment" is precisely because of the faux self-employed. There aren't enough real jobs in the economy to go round.
    We do have Full Employment, it is official. Whether the jobs are productive or not is neither here nor there. There are enough real jobs, if people go onto the job market they can and are finding jobs.

    It is time for fake jobs to go away. If they do, we'll still no doubt have Full Employment now.
    I don't think you realise the scale of the faux self-employed.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    "My teenage son recently informed me that there is an Internet quiz to test oneself for narcissism. His friend had just taken it. “How did it turn out?” I asked. “He says he did great!” my son responded. “He got the maximum score!”"

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/14/opinion/narcissism-is-increasing-so-youre-not-so-special.html
  • Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:



    While we have Full Employment is the best time imaginable to get rid of dead fake employment and get people to either set up a productive business that works or get a real job.

    But we don't -- because the only reason the official figures are at "full employment" is precisely because of the faux self-employed. There aren't enough real jobs in the economy to go round.
    We do have Full Employment, it is official. Whether the jobs are productive or not is neither here nor there. There are enough real jobs, if people go onto the job market they can and are finding jobs.

    It is time for fake jobs to go away. If they do, we'll still no doubt have Full Employment now.
    I don't think you realise the scale of the faux self-employed.
    I don't think it matters.

    The scale can't be that high as not all self-employed are faux (I'd imagine the vast majority aren't and are perfectly legitimate) and the proportion of self-employed isn't that high.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2016

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:



    While we have Full Employment is the best time imaginable to get rid of dead fake employment and get people to either set up a productive business that works or get a real job.

    But we don't -- because the only reason the official figures are at "full employment" is precisely because of the faux self-employed. There aren't enough real jobs in the economy to go round.
    We do have Full Employment, it is official. Whether the jobs are productive or not is neither here nor there. There are enough real jobs, if people go onto the job market they can and are finding jobs.

    It is time for fake jobs to go away. If they do, we'll still no doubt have Full Employment now.
    I don't think you realise the scale of the faux self-employed.
    I don't think it matters.

    The scale can't be that high as not all self-employed are faux (I'd imagine the vast majority aren't and are perfectly legitimate) and the proportion of self-employed isn't that high.
    The "self-employed" has accounted for a large chunk of the supposed "jobs miracle".

    That's before even getting into how many private-sector workers are underemployed.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    Just topped up on POTUS Cruz before tonight's debate @ ~21/1.

    Looks to me like the conversation has just moved onto his turf.

    Current book;

    GOP;

    Cruz +£4230
    Everyone else +-£/0

    POTUS;

    Clinton -£120
    Sanders -£300
    Rubio +£1870
    Donald +£9150
    Cruz +£11k
    Romney +£50k
    Ryan +£250k
    Everyone else >+£2000

    The states that Santorum won in 2012 were:

    Iowa
    Colorado
    Minnesota
    Missouri
    North Dakota
    Tennessee
    Kansas
    Alabama
    Mississippi
    Louisiana

    I could see Cruz also getting Texas (although I think he'll lose Colorado and Minnesota). What's his path to the nomination?
    Santorum won Oklahoma too, I think. At least according to RCP.

    Cruz's path is tough, but he's going to come out guns firing re: SCOTUS - and he could take support directly from trump.
  • RodCrosby said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    First reaction from the candidates:

    Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 7m7 minutes ago
    The totally unexpected loss of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia is a massive setback for the Conservative movement and our COUNTRY!

    Ted Cruz ‏@tedcruz 15m15 minutes ago
    Justice Scalia was an American hero. We owe it to him, & the Nation, for the Senate to ensure that the next President names his replacement.

    I'm out till the debate, where as always will try to live comment on it on PB.

    Cruz emphasises that the *next* president appoint his successor. Obama has a year or so left in office which is more than enough time in normal circumstances.

    (Can he appoint himself? Obama was a constitutional law professor in his former life.)
    Separation of powers. He can't be concurrently POTUS and Chief Justice.

    Taft is the only POTUS who became Supreme Court Justice (after a gap of eight years)
    Is that codified?
    Yup. You can only work for one branch of government at any one time.
    Obama could appoint himself. There is no Constitutional bar.

    Whether the Senate would confirm it is another matter...
    "I AM the Senate!" :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,346

    RodCrosby said:

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    First reaction from the candidates:

    Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 7m7 minutes ago
    The totally unexpected loss of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia is a massive setback for the Conservative movement and our COUNTRY!

    Ted Cruz ‏@tedcruz 15m15 minutes ago
    Justice Scalia was an American hero. We owe it to him, & the Nation, for the Senate to ensure that the next President names his replacement.

    I'm out till the debate, where as always will try to live comment on it on PB.

    Cruz emphasises that the *next* president appoint his successor. Obama has a year or so left in office which is more than enough time in normal circumstances.

    (Can he appoint himself? Obama was a constitutional law professor in his former life.)
    Separation of powers. He can't be concurrently POTUS and Chief Justice.

    Taft is the only POTUS who became Supreme Court Justice (after a gap of eight years)
    Is that codified?
    Yup. You can only work for one branch of government at any one time.
    Obama could appoint himself. There is no Constitutional bar.

    Whether the Senate would confirm it is another matter...
    "I AM the Senate!" :)
    The real question we want answered: was Palpatine a Supreme Court Justice?
  • notme/

    Notme - Yes I think you are correct. In addition to the normal problems with sub samples the "pro Tory correction" will be playing havoc with the Scotland and Wales sub samples given that the polls in Scotland were correct in the election. This Comres sub sample is SNP 51, TORY 25 and LAB 14. I suggest Tories are being overrated since a real Scottish poll this week (MORI) put them at only 16 for Scottish Parliament. This would suggest that Labour are slightly better and SNP even more ahead.
  • Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:



    While we have Full Employment is the best time imaginable to get rid of dead fake employment and get people to either set up a productive business that works or get a real job.

    But we don't -- because the only reason the official figures are at "full employment" is precisely because of the faux self-employed. There aren't enough real jobs in the economy to go round.
    We do have Full Employment, it is official. Whether the jobs are productive or not is neither here nor there. There are enough real jobs, if people go onto the job market they can and are finding jobs.

    It is time for fake jobs to go away. If they do, we'll still no doubt have Full Employment now.
    I don't think you realise the scale of the faux self-employed.
    I don't think it matters.

    The scale can't be that high as not all self-employed are faux (I'd imagine the vast majority aren't and are perfectly legitimate) and the proportion of self-employed isn't that high.
    The "self-employed" has accounted for a large chunk of the supposed "jobs miracle".

    That's before even getting into how many private-sector workers are underemployed.
    No, not that large. And again the vast majority of self-employed are legit.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Let the debate begin.

    It will probably be terrible like always but hopefully not boring.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    We begin with a Scalia question.
    Actually a moment of silence.

    And now to commercials.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    We start again.
    And now a Scalia question to Trump.

    Trump: If I would president I would try to nominate a justice, I think that Mitch will do something about it, it's a blow.
    Delay delay delay.

    Kasich: If I were president there will be no divisions in the country, it's sad, the country is divided, not nominate somebody, only with unanimous approval, put the country first, Obama should stop.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Carson: The supreme court is very important, the average death age was 50 now it has changed and we should look at it, the country is divided, it's ashamed, we are not going to get heeling to obama.

    Rubio: his loss is tremendous, he defended the constitution, constitution, dissent on interdependent council, obama, filing vacancy, constitution.

    Moderator accuses him of flip flopping.

    Rubio: i was never in favour of overturning the filibuster.

    Bush: I will appoint people with a proven record, we were suprised, proven conservative record, limited government , constitution, FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT, i'm an article 2 guy, Obama will not have consensus.

    Cruz: We have 80 years of precedent not confirming in an election year.

    He now argues with the moderator over this.

    BOOOO from audience.

    Bush laughs.

    Cruz: The stakes of this election, abortion, gun rights, religious liberty, we will not give up the supreme court, who will appoint a principled constitutionalist
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    A question about specifics, on Trump.

    Trump: What we want to do, what we do what we can do to hit hard, ISIS, we have allies that fund ISIS, Iran deal disgrace, who we are fighting for and with, do not go into Iraq, i said it louder, attack the oil, keep the oil.

    Rubio: China poses a national security threat, Iran, ISIS, NATO, Putin, Ukraine. In 2014 Obama asked to authorize use of force against Assad, then I say Obama's plan and it would make things worse (hypocrite and liar), I voted against the use of force.

    Carson: The president appoints the supreme court, 2 questions in this is great, those 2 am phone calls need judgement, I have done things that have never been done before, the kinds of threats never before.

    Kasich: We have to make clear to Russia, we will arm ukraine, an attack on NATO is an attack on the USA, Egypt, Saudis, arabs, belgium, britain,the world is desperate for leadership, the world needs us, a coalition of civilized people over the world.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,346
    The cheerers are out in force today. Makes me cringe.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Bush: The lack of leadership in this country, it's a disaster, we need to destroy ISIS and Assad, Trump wants to accommodate Russia, Russia is attacking our team, Russia is on the run, I will restore the military, i have a strategy, contain Iran, nucelar (yeap) weapon.

    Trump: I will be a genius, Jeb is absolutely so wrong, you have to fight ISIS first, these are animals, you cant fight two wars at once, you listen to people like Jeb and we are stuck 15 years in the middle east, and Linsday Graham has zero credibility.

    Jeb: Russia will not become an ally of the US, we need a sunni coalition.

    Trump: we supporting troops we do not know who they are.

    Jeb: this is a guy who gets his advice from the shows.

    Big fight.

    Cruz: We need someone understanding the threats of this country, we need to shread the Iran deal, they focuse on nation building and ends up undermining the security of the USA, we need overwhelming air power, arm the kurds, military expert judgement.

    The moderator is becoming the story.

    Cruz: obama refuses to arm the kurds, we need to arm the kurds, use special forces and our incredible air power, we don't use the tools we have.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Question about Bush W. on Trump.

    Trump: As a businessman, i;m a self funder, i get along with everybody, the war in Iraq was a big mistake, Jeb took 5 days to make a statement about iraq, Iran is taking over Iraq, George Bush made a mistake, you called it everylike, they lied and they knew it there were no WMD.

    Bush: i'm sick of Obama blaming my brother, I'm sick and tired Trump getting on my family, while Trump was building a reality show my brother keep us safe,

    This is a big fight.

    Kasich: this is just nuts, i;m sorry, we thought there were WMD's, we got our selves in the middle of a civil war, we didnt understand what we got into,the USA should be involved in civil wars, go to war only in our direct interest no policeman of the world.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Jeb! is doing rather well. I wonder if he really could usurp Rubio as the establishment choice.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Rubio: I thank all the time that bush was president not gore, he kept us safe, Saddam was abad guy.

    Trump: how did he kept us safe when the WTC came down.

    Rubio: The WTC came down because of Clinton.

    Trump: Bush also had a chance but didn't listed to the CIA.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Carson: I wasn't in favour to go in war in Iraq, those nations have been ruled for thousands of years by dictators, we stabilished the situation, obama said we should bomb tankers that was assinine thinking, we have to asses what is acceptable.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Not good from trump there.

    It's the 9/11 clip that will get played on the news.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    First round verdict.

    This is a debate about G.W. Bush.
    Basically we will see how popular W. and the Iraq war still are.

    On a note, Trump is silenced by CBS when he tries to respond and that really hampers him.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Question on Trump about budget:

    Trump: The democrats want to make a lot of bad things on social security, i will bring jobs from mexico, china, japa, vietnam, i will lower taxes, we will bring money back, China bought the chicago exchange, we have to make the economy grow again, I will save social security, you have tremendous waste and abuse, thousands of people that don't exist get social security, we will not hurt people who get social security.

    Cruz: Everyone understands the middle class, Obama, full time work, we will not solve it by pixie dust, we will go back to our principles, tax reform regulatory reform, nothing in taxes, flat tax 10%, we abolish the IRS.

    The moderators are taking part again this is CNBC again.

    Cruz: this is not a VAT tax, we are doing this by abolishing all taxes, a simple flat tax will give jobs and income, implementing policies.

    Moderator on Rubio why do you have hight tax rates?

    Rubio: this is their money, it doesn't belong to the government, parenting is the most important institution, tax credit for children, buying backpack, new pair of shoes, the family, strong family.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Kasich on medicaid question:

    Our medicare program grew 2.5%, our mentally ill need care, revolving door, working poor, people suffering cancer, 8 billion hole to 2 billion surplus cut taxes by 5 billion jobs bup, no one behind in ohio, personal responsible, ohio ohio.

    Jeb: Expanding obamacare means more care, we should repeal obamacare, in Florida, we didn't expand it.

    Kasich: When Jeb was governor he grew medicare faster that me, Reagan expanded medicare 5 times.

    Jeb: the CATO institute said Kasich is bad.

    Kasich: I need to correct that record, ohio is great blah blah, unity, i don't want to fight ( he cries).
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Jeb: it won't have an impact on hedge funds, they should be paying ordinary income, hedge funds paying is not a problem, shift power away, tax cuts florida.

    Carson: BenCarson.com, CATO and Forbes say my plan is the greatest, 150% poverty level, everybody has to pay taxes, all taxes are the same, get rid of Obamacare,

    Moderator: we have to cut you off.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Second round verdict.

    This is worse than the CNBC debate.

    The moderators are cutting off at will the candidates, they interrupt all the time and they get in fights with the candidates.

    Trump definitely won this round about social security and jobs.

    Jeb is going after everyone even Kasich.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    CBS is terrible, they cut their own debate for commercials in the middle of the immigration debate, literaly.
    What the heck is going on?

    I see a second of Rubio and Trump talking and then commercials cut in.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    And now the botched immigration question, actually I give up CBS is CRAPPPPPP.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Cruz:I have a sharp difference on immigration, they are differences on amnesty, when reid and schummer, and establishment republicans, i lead the fight against amnesty, the Rubio-Schumer amnesty plan, where were you?

    Rubio: we ahve the issue again, Cruz said that he wanted amnesty, he proposed all those things, now he has changed, he's a liar.

    Cruz: the lines are clear, Rubio supports immigration, I oppose, Rubio supported it for years, Rubio went to Univision to support Obama.

    Rubio: Cruz doesn't speak spanish.

    Cruz speaks spanish.

    Rubio: Cruz is liying on everything.

    Cruz: that is abosultery false.

    WHAT IS THIS?
    It's a mess.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Jeb: I need to get in my inner chris christie, we see 2 senators talk, i have a detailed plan, a path to legal status, it doesn't mean it's right, we should control the border, they are not rapists, we should control the border.

    Trump: if i didn't bring it up they will never talked about it, I agree with Cruz and Rubio, Jeb is so weak on illegal immigration.

    Jeb: it's weak to disparage women, spanish, John McCain.

    Trump: 2 days ago Jeb that he will take his pants off the moon and he talks about my language.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Kasich: these attacks are all personal, if we dont stop we will give it to Hillary, lets take all the attack ads off and get positive, we should close the border, make them pay a fine and give them legal status, in 100 days i will send a plan to congress and will it pass.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Carson: BenCarson.com, here is the problem , government regulators, we have too many government agencies, we need to get rid of them, I'm not sure solving the problem by increasing regulations, solve poverty.

    Cruz: It's an important question, young people, hispanics, single moms, fewer people in work since 1977, booming economy, to lift people out of poverty, my father from Cuba came only with underwear he washed dishes, obamacare would have fired him, welfare reform.

    Trump on tarrifs: I will build consensus with Congress, I don't like executive orders, you have to work hard to make deals with congress, they have a video of Carrier moving to Mexico, you are going to make airconditioners to Mexico I will get consensus from congress and i;m going to tax you.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Third round verdict.

    This debate is the worst in history (from a quality aspect).
    The moment CBS botched the immigration issue by cutting the start of it with commercials was terrible (probably a technical problem) as a result the first minutes were never broadcast.

    Rubio and Cruz are an embarrassment on immigration.
    Kasich is the only one who hasn't crashed to bits.

    The moderators are horrible, and the crowd too.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Question on Trump about flip flops.

    Trump: In life you do have flexibility, when in war you need flexibility, Reagan was a liberal democrat and then a conservative, as i get older and wise i become a common sence conservative, they hit me with eminent domain, you need eminent domain, the state of New Jersey was going to build a big tower, they used it to build a stadium in Texas.

    Jeb: I disagree with my brother, you shouldn't use it.

    Cruz; flexibility is good but not on core principles, I like Donald, he's very prochoice, he supports plan parenthood.

    Trump: he is the biggest liar, he lied about Carson, today we had robocalls saying that I won't runin S.Carolina, he's a nasty guy.

    Cruz: Donald has a weird pattern,

    Trump; were did i support it Ted, were?

    Cruz you support.
    Trump
    Cruz

    I give up
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Trump: you wanted John Roberts and he approved Obamacare, you gave us.

    Jeb: Reagan was a conservative 6 years in california.

    Cruz: I

    Trump: why do you lie.

    Cruz: I didn't nominated Roberts, Trump gave money to democrats.

    Rubio: Why dont we cure poverty, i have a very detailed problem, nikki haley will cure poverty, we haven't solved immigration reform, we need to pass comprehensive immigration reform, they want to see that wall, but not before.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Carson: So many people say that I need to scream and jump up and down, seeing this debate do you think that was the right thing, we cannot tear each other down, I'm not a politician, free college is a non starter, we are on the verge of economic collapse, the democrats blame evil rich people.

    Kasich: I did 106 town halls, i was chairman in washington, ohio, low regulatios low taxes, fiscal plan, formula, workforce restained, ohio, blue collar democrats, democrats left blue collars behind, i'm a uniter i have experience, i love blue collar democrats.

    Trump: My wife tells me i'm wrong all the time and I listen, I built a great company, i spent 3 million Jeb spent 35 million and he lost, we need people that know what they are doing, I hire experts and sometimes they are wrong.

    Moderator: Cut it out.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Trump: i use a profanity, but some times you bleep it and it's unfair to criticize it, so i will not do it again, i was a good student.

    Jeb: Washington is dangerous, we need a commander in chief, we don't need someone that whent bankrupt 4 times.

    Trump: that was a a lie.
    Does like the biggest companies i use the laws of the land, i never went bankrupt, Jeb put so much debt in Florida he increased spending so much as Florida crashed, Jeb is not a good governor.

    Jeb: Florida was great, we didn't went bankrupt, personal income grew.

    Rubio: I grew up under Reagan, Obama is bad, Obama is Jimmy Carter, how do you inspire people again, the american people were scared, Reagan turned america around, I wish Reagan was still alive, Reagan, Reagan.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    This could change everything.

    Leeds United have started legal action against the Football League in an attempt to dismantle the collective selling of TV rights and win the right to sell their own games, The Mail on Sunday can reveal.


    http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/sport/football/article-3445896/Massimo-Cellino-new-fury-Leeds-United-owner-launches-bid-break-clubs-100m-television-deal.html

    Aren't Virgin pursing some legal avenues as well?
    Kinda. They want to make all 380 Premier League matches live on TV in England
    The thing is that every single match is already broadcast live - just not in the UK.

    The rule was designed to protect lower league attendances at 3pm but it could probably be argued that with most of the matches now being moved that rule is redundant.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    RIP Justice Scalia. We were only talking about this here the other day, it adds a new dimension to US politics for a few months.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Fourth round verdict.

    This is still the worst debate in history, but very entertaining due to all the chaos.
    The moderators, the candidates, the technical problems they all created a perfect disaster.

    The only winners are Kasich and Carson, simply because they participate the least in this historic mess.

    This debate makes Airplane! look like a logical serious drama movie.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    Closing statements

    Kasich: I will send a lot of money back, you are not going to wait for a president to fix things, the lord, i will send the power back, social security, the spirit of america is in our guts, what the lord wants, the spirit of america, you were made special, thank you very much.

    Carson: this is the first generation that will be worse than their parents, the country is heading off the cliff, Stalin said, we the people can stop the decline, vote for me, we can turn this thing around, the media is manipulating people, i will be accountable to everybody.

    Jeb: the next president will be confronted by a disaster, the americanins (yeap a bushism there), florida, hurricanes in 16 months, we recovered, we need a back bone, safe and secure.

    Rubio: thank you for watching tonight, our culture is in trouble, what is right is wrong, Iran, 2016, give me your vote, we will embrace free enterprise, marriage is one man and a woman, God, Israel, Iran, military, vote for me, 21st century.

    Cruz: S.Carolina you have a critical choice to make, do you want a deal maker that give up to the democrats, or you want a pure conservative, the stakes are high, supreme court, if we nominated, life hangs in the balance, my daughters, constitution, defeat our enemies, secure borders.

    Trump: politicians are all talk and no action, the debt is 19 trillion, we need change, we need to make america anymore, we don't win anymore, we don't win, we will win again, we will not be controlled from special interests, i'm working for you.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    God I hope this debate is over.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/698633306770956294

    Headlines which once again fail to match the story. A relatively small 'wallpaper company' which Osborne gets £1200 a year in dividends from.
    Are dividends taxed?
    Are directors salaries taxed?
    Presumably according to the other income that shareholders and directors receive then this income will be taxed at 40% at least as opposed to 20% corporation tax
    Are profits of £722,000 on a turnover of £34 million significant to warrant a comparison with companies turning over billions? On that sort of effort we can see why it has made losses in previous years.
    Wow, company pays dividends to shareholders shocker!

    Or is it:

    Wow, man has shares in family's company shocker!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Yes it's over.

    Final verdict.
    This debate destroyed the Republican party-period.

    It was the most messy, aggressive and problematic debate in history.
    The moderators were terrible, technical problems meant that the first half of the immigration issue was never broadcast, the candidates all got into terrible and embarrassing fights for grownups.

    That debate was like satire of a debate, what could go wrong went wrong.

    The only winners are Kasich and Carson who looked like the only serious adults on stage.
    Everyone else got destroyed by the constant infighting.

    Oh and the fights, they were so many and intense involving everyone including the moderators you can't begin to remember which is which, the entire debate was a bar brawl.

    A few fights stuck out though:
    Trump vs G.W.Bush on Iraq
    Rubio vs Cruz in spanish
    Trump vs Cruz on lies
    Jeb vs Kasich on medicare.

    Kasich almost crying as he pleaded his fellow candidates to stop fighting on stage was the most emotional moment.

    So my numbers;

    Kasich 8/10
    Carson 7/10

    Everyone else 0

    The total chaos of this debate was very entertaining but it really was catastrophic for the GOP.
    The CNBC debate was paradise compared to this, and I hope CBS never does a messy production as this one again.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The CBS GOP debate was like this start to finish:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AOeSrLCD-U

    The only ones happy were the democrats, they watched the GOP self-destruct live on national TV.

    Goodnight.
  • Thanks, Speedy.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    I'm back for a while, I'm looking at Google Trends to see how the debate went down in S.Carolina.

    https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=/m/0cqt90, /m/07j6ty, /m/0dpr5f, /m/02zzm_, /m/019x9z&geo=US-SC&date=now 4-H&cmpt=q&tz=Etc/GMT

    Trump is generating the most interest, but about bankruptcy. (not very positive)
    Cruz is second, about Postcards.
    Rubio third, about Reagan.
    Bush 4th, about his pants and the moon. (bad news for Bush)
    Kasich 5th, nothing unusual.
    Carson a tie with Kasich, about his tax plans.

    Cruz dominated the first half, Trump the second half and still going strong after the debate finished.

    Good morning.
This discussion has been closed.