I'd half-expected Labour to pick up this month given the focus on the Conservatives and the EU. The public really have made up their minds about Jeremy Corbyn.
I'd half-expected Labour to pick up this month given the focus on the Conservatives and the EU. The public really have made up their minds about Jeremy Corbyn.
New analysis finds that two thirds of higher rate taxpayers will not have adequete savings in their retirement amid mounting concerns about plans to raid pensions
Lots of pissed off notionally Tory voters... better hope the referendum is on the EU and not the government, no danger of Corbyn and all that.
I'd half-expected Labour to pick up this month given the focus on the Conservatives and the EU. The public really have made up their minds about Jeremy Corbyn.
Is this Labour's floor or can they go lower ?
Lower, I think. Jeremy Corbyn's favourability rating represents their floor, I expect.
The referendum is going to come down to 3 million jobs vs 3 million immigrants isn't it?
You better hope not, because even the author of 3 million jobs has disowned it, where as people can see the 3 million migrants on the TV every evening, and will see more as the weather improves. A positive case for staying in the EU, not the fluff that got brought home last week would have been a good start.
In March Labour's favourable ratings were 29/45% and Miliband's were 20/50%, so not that much different really. Voting intention is obviously much worse.
I have had a pint with Alastair Meeks and he is a nice guy, but we must remember, when he is calling everyone who wants to leave the EU crackers, and saying it is ridiculous to compare it to a burning building etc, that he wanted the UK to take 125,000 migrants from Syria no questions asked in the summer, calling people who disagreed "arseholes". So hardly a barometer of public opinion on the whole issue, and certainly not a "centrist who just cant make up his mind"
Dave less popular than the Tories for the first time in ages.
John Mcdonnell disliked less than Osborne
lol
Give it time. Osborne's star will rise again.
How will you cope when George leads the Tories to a landslide in 2020?
even if you add all the LOC percentage together you only get 39% but 45% of voters dislike him. he's that good.
In the last parliament, at times Osborne was the most popular GB wide politician, in May when it looked like Osborne was about to be turfed out of the Treasury and his magnificent stewardship of economy was about to end, the voters came out to stop that happening.
The man is a genius. Geniuses are seldom acknowledged in their own lifetime.
I have had a pint with Alastair Meeks and he is a nice guy, but we must remember, when he is calling everyone who wants to leave the EU crackers, and saying it is ridiculous to compare it to a burning building etc, that he wanted the UK to take 125,000 migrants from Syria no questions asked in the summer, calling people who disagreed "arseholes". So hardly a barometer of public opinion on the whole issue
No, you're misremembering. I called people who constantly asked how many migrants I'd house "arseholes". Which, of course, they were.
Also, I said that Britain could comfortably take 10,000 migrants a month. Which, of course, it could.
Dave less popular than the Tories for the first time in ages.
John Mcdonnell disliked less than Osborne
lol
Give it time. Osborne's star will rise again.
How will you cope when George leads the Tories to a landslide in 2020?
even if you add all the LOC percentage together you only get 39% but 45% of voters dislike him. he's that good.
In the last parliament, at times Osborne was the most popular GB wide politician, in May when it looked like Osborne was about to be turfed out of the Treasury and his magnificent stewardship of economy was about to end, the voters came out to stop that happening.
The man is a genius. Geniuses are seldom acknowledged in their own lifetime.
I have had a pint with Alastair Meeks and he is a nice guy, but we must remember, when he is calling everyone who wants to leave the EU crackers, and saying it is ridiculous to compare it to a burning building etc, that he wanted the UK to take 125,000 migrants from Syria no questions asked in the summer, calling people who disagreed "arseholes". So hardly a barometer of public opinion on the whole issue, and certainly not a "centrist who just cant make up his mind"
The knuckle-dragging neanderthals as I believe he described them were proved right.
I have had a pint with Alastair Meeks and he is a nice guy, but we must remember, when he is calling everyone who wants to leave the EU crackers, and saying it is ridiculous to compare it to a burning building etc, that he wanted the UK to take 125,000 migrants from Syria no questions asked in the summer, calling people who disagreed "arseholes". So hardly a barometer of public opinion on the whole issue, and certainly not a "centrist who just cant make up his mind"
I have asked him what he expects the EC to be doing in the insurance sector over the next 5 years. They have promised more regulation and standardisation for some of the services but how it will affect each sector remains (!) unclear on an initial search.
Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn
I have had a pint with Alastair Meeks and he is a nice guy, but we must remember, when he is calling everyone who wants to leave the EU crackers, and saying it is ridiculous to compare it to a burning building etc, that he wanted the UK to take 125,000 migrants from Syria no questions asked in the summer, calling people who disagreed "arseholes". So hardly a barometer of public opinion on the whole issue
No, you're misremembering. I called people who constantly asked how many migrants I'd house "arseholes". Which, of course, they were.
Also, I said that Britain could comfortably take 10,000 migrants a month. Which, of course, it could.
Yes it could if we were willing to take all related improvements for our current population and find away of disuading the 5 or 10 to 1 relatives of the migrants from eventually heading here as well.
Dave less popular than the Tories for the first time in ages.
John Mcdonnell disliked less than Osborne lol
Give it time. Osborne's star will rise again. How will you cope when George leads the Tories to a landslide in 2020?
Why would Osborne's ratings rise up to near positive levels? Voters by now will have made their minds up. Too many just do not like him.
Chancellors who deliver austerity are seldom popular.
His competency ratings when polled are generally higher.
To give him his dues, he inherited a right mess and has managed to tread the fine line of reducing the size of the state without killing growth, in the face of several external shocks emanating mainly from Europe since 2010
My criticism of him has always been that he is always after a political angle for everything, in much the same way as Brown was in the same position. Budget day in March is going to be one of the key dates in the diary of this Parliament - one way or the other.
"The EU is not a burning building. Of course it has problems. In the grand scheme of things they are relatively minor and in large part problems of affluence. There would be no migration crisis if European countries weren't seen as desirable places to come to. "
Congratulations on the EU's 21st !!!
I see the EU budget has not been signed off for the 21st year running by auditors who cite suspicions about the use of at least 4.8 billion of funds 500 million of which was from the UK. EU council of finance ministers pass the audit report anyway despite protest from the UK.
Daily Mail.
Nothing to see here move along please.... All is well...all is well.
Dave less popular than the Tories for the first time in ages.
John Mcdonnell disliked less than Osborne lol
Give it time. Osborne's star will rise again. How will you cope when George leads the Tories to a landslide in 2020?
Why would Osborne's ratings rise up to near positive levels? Voters by now will have made their minds up. Too many just do not like him.
Chancellors who deliver austerity are seldom popular.
His competency ratings when polled are generally higher.
he's borrowing a la Brown. This is not austerity and he's still got those ratings.
Departmental spending austerity.
I'd love to chat longer, but I'm only allowed 30 mins time in front of the screen every few hours.
I'll do an Osborne is awesome thread just for you, next weekend.
You should hold back that article until well after the referendum otherwise it might become an infamous one like that Labour princes article some years ago.
I have had a pint with Alastair Meeks and he is a nice guy, but we must remember, when he is calling everyone who wants to leave the EU crackers, and saying it is ridiculous to compare it to a burning building etc, that he wanted the UK to take 125,000 migrants from Syria no questions asked in the summer, calling people who disagreed "arseholes". So hardly a barometer of public opinion on the whole issue, and certainly not a "centrist who just cant make up his mind"
I have asked him what he expects the EC to be doing in the insurance sector over the next 5 years. They have promised more regulation and standardisation for some of the services but how it will affect each sector remains (!) unclear on an initial search.
See the Test-Achats case as an example of ECJ meddling and causing untold damage to UK consumers. As a result of the ECJ's ruling insurers can no longer take gender into account.
Dave takes a hit and he's still better ratings than Farage. And there's a boost for the Tories and UKIP are on the slide.
Surely we're approaching tipping point for the PLP.
In Feb 2011 Lab had a six point lead with ComRes.
Jez truly is dire, Labour closer to UKIP than they are to the Tories
I don't see what the PLP can do. Its the membership (maybe in the guise of the NEC) that would have to defenestrate Corbyn. And who then could they expect to be an alternative. I understand that half his original nominations came from MPs who did not vote for him. So it seems unlikely they would go for anyone else so far left.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB ComRes IoS S Mirror online poll:Just 12% of those who voted LAB at GE2015 have favourable view of shadow chancellor John. McDonnell ComRes IoS S Mirror online poll: Just 47% of those who voted LAB at GE2015 have a favourable view of Corbyn
There is hallooing about Osborne, but it's Cameron's approval that has crashed to the same level as John McDonnell's. Indeed, in this poll the only Conservative politician more highly rated than McDonnell is Boris.
Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn
I cannot see any circumstance that George Osborne will take over from David Cameron. Boris has not held a high profile cabinet position and until he does it is difficult to judge his competence. If the referendum goes ahead in June then until the result and the dust has settled I do not expect that a clear heir to Cameron will become obvious.
Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn
Boris is overwhelmingly popular as a politician, but when it comes to choosing a party leader the membership will struggle to take him seriously.
Being able to speak Latin does not make a statesman, he gives the impression of the man who would put a whoopee cushion under Mr Putin's chair as they sit down at a conference. The incumbent PM sets the bar very high for knowing how to conduct himself in a manner appropriate to the occasion.
There is hallooing about Osborne, but it's Cameron's approval that has crashed to the same level as John McDonnell's. Indeed, in this poll the only Conservative politician more highly rated than McDonnell is Boris.
There is hallooing about Osborne, but it's Cameron's approval that has crashed to the same level as John McDonnell's. Indeed, in this poll the only Conservative politician more highly rated than McDonnell is Boris.
There is hallooing about Osborne, but it's Cameron's approval that has crashed to the same level as John McDonnell's. Indeed, in this poll the only Conservative politician more highly rated than McDonnell is Boris.
Though McDonnell has the lowest favourable at just 6% and 43% don't know, which suggests there is no great enthusiasm for him just few have heard of him!
There is hallooing about Osborne, but it's Cameron's approval that has crashed to the same level as John McDonnell's. Indeed, in this poll the only Conservative politician more highly rated than McDonnell is Boris.
McDonell's favourable rating is 6 (SIX) per cent.
McDonell has both the lowest favorable and unfavorable rating, I imagine because most people are lucky enough never to have heard of the wretched man.
There is hallooing about Osborne, but it's Cameron's approval that has crashed to the same level as John McDonnell's. Indeed, in this poll the only Conservative politician more highly rated than McDonnell is Boris.
Though McDonnell has the lowest favourable at just 6% and 43% don't know, which suggests there is no great enthusiasm for him just few have heard of him!
That's true. I'm really just trying to make the point that Osborne isn't the story in this poll (imo).
There is hallooing about Osborne, but it's Cameron's approval that has crashed to the same level as John McDonnell's. Indeed, in this poll the only Conservative politician more highly rated than McDonnell is Boris.
McDonell's favourable rating is 6 (SIX) per cent.
McDonell has both the lowest favorable and unfavorable rating, I imagine because most people are lucky enough never to have heard of the wretched man.
I can't imagine that his positive rating will go up much as he becomes better known.
Dave less popular than the Tories for the first time in ages.
John Mcdonnell disliked less than Osborne lol
Give it time. Osborne's star will rise again. How will you cope when George leads the Tories to a landslide in 2020?
Why would Osborne's ratings rise up to near positive levels? Voters by now will have made their minds up. Too many just do not like him.
Chancellors who deliver austerity are seldom popular.
His competency ratings when polled are generally higher.
What do you think about the growing concern of him acting as a part time chancellor etc?
I doubt most people have even noticed.
But it is not about voters understanding that, it is more about the effect it has on the government areas that he meddles in. Instead of a Chancellor focused 100% on his upcoming budget we have one distracted by many many other matters.
It is surprising with the constant negative headlines in the Tory press re David Cameron and the EU, the controversy over the Junior Doctors dispute, problems in the stock market and the continuing migration crisis that the conservative lead over labour is now 14 points. How long before labour take action to either throw out Corbyn or actually take the obvious decision to start their own Social Democrat party
The favourable ratings matter far more than the net ratings, always. Winning an election is always about turning out supporters, not worrying about opponents.
21% is simply horrid for a leader of the Opposition. Excluding don't knows, it implies a ceiling of 30% for Labour.
Poll seems a bit counterintuitive even though the Online Comres has always been the best for the Tories in the monthly cycle since May 2015.I suspect their Daily Mail phone poll will be a fair bit different.
Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn
Boris is overwhelmingly popular as a politician, but when it comes to choosing a party leader the membership will struggle to take him seriously.
Being able to speak Latin does not make a statesman, he gives the impression of the man who would put a whoopee cushion under Mr Putin's chair as they sit down at a conference. The incumbent PM sets the bar very high for knowing how to conduct himself in a manner appropriate to the occasion.
Boris is not that dissimilar to Berlusconi and George W Bush on that score and both won elections!
Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn
I cannot see any circumstance that George Osborne will take over from David Cameron. Boris has not held a high profile cabinet position and until he does it is difficult to judge his competence. If the referendum goes ahead in June then until the result and the dust has settled I do not expect that a clear heir to Cameron will become obvious.
If it is Leave or close then the likes of Fox will come into play, Osborne will inevitably be a contendor as Chancellor as may Hammond as Foreign Secretary, Boris has been Mayor of the biggest city in the country so it is not as if he has had no responsibility at all!
Mr. HYUFD, the latter was presidential only, and Italy's politics may not be similar to ours.
Boris' problem is that the PCP decides the two who go to the final ballot. Can't imagine he's got all that strong a support base. Probably seen as a mixture of a Flash Harry and Johnny Come Lately.
There is hallooing about Osborne, but it's Cameron's approval that has crashed to the same level as John McDonnell's. Indeed, in this poll the only Conservative politician more highly rated than McDonnell is Boris.
Though McDonnell has the lowest favourable at just 6% and 43% don't know, which suggests there is no great enthusiasm for him just few have heard of him!
That's true. I'm really just trying to make the point that Osborne isn't the story in this poll (imo).
Indeed, apart from Boris no politician in this poll, Labour, Tory or UKIP comes out that well
Tories = Donald Trump Labour = Ted Cruz UKIP = Marco Rubio LD = Jeb Bush Green = John Kasich
That is wrong on so many levels.
Firstly, Rubio is a total incompetent and Farage is... well... nowhere near as incompetent. And whatever you think about Farage, he's definitely not an 'empty suit'.
Secondly, Labour is so not Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz is beloved of religious fanatics of the same region. Jeremy Corbyn is beloved of religious fanatics of a different religion.
Thirdly, Donald Trump wins at negotiating.
Fourthly, Jeb Bush is quietly competent. The LibDems, by contrast, are inaudible.
Finally, Kasich can run a state. The Greens would leave you in a state.
There is hallooing about Osborne, but it's Cameron's approval that has crashed to the same level as John McDonnell's. Indeed, in this poll the only Conservative politician more highly rated than McDonnell is Boris.
McDonell's favourable rating is 6 (SIX) per cent.
-17 net, same as Dave
For the two to be "the same", the "no opinion"s would need to split evenly. Which is a rather heroic assumption.
Dave less popular than the Tories for the first time in ages.
John Mcdonnell disliked less than Osborne lol
Give it time. Osborne's star will rise again. How will you cope when George leads the Tories to a landslide in 2020?
Why would Osborne's ratings rise up to near positive levels? Voters by now will have made their minds up. Too many just do not like him.
Chancellors who deliver austerity are seldom popular.
His competency ratings when polled are generally higher.
What do you think about the growing concern of him acting as a part time chancellor etc?
I doubt most people have even noticed.
But it is not about voters understanding that, it is more about the effect it has on the government areas that he meddles in. Instead of a Chancellor focused 100% on his upcoming budget we have one distracted by many many other matters.
You said there was "growing concern" and people can't be concerned about something they haven't noticed!
Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn
I cannot see any circumstance that George Osborne will take over from David Cameron. Boris has not held a high profile cabinet position and until he does it is difficult to judge his competence. If the referendum goes ahead in June then until the result and the dust has settled I do not expect that a clear heir to Cameron will become obvious.
If it is Leave or close then the likes of Fox will come into play, Osborne will inevitably be a contendor as Chancellor as may Hammond as Foreign Secretary, Boris has been Mayor of the biggest city in the country so it is not as if he has had no responsibility at all!
The referendum campaign will give the opportunity to several conservatives to star in their role, on either side, and should make the succession, whenever it is, very interesting. I do not see George Osborne or Hammond succeeding and you do not mention Teresa May. Boris has been London mayor but it is a huge step to Prime Minister as that will be the position the successor to DC will enter
Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn
I cannot see any circumstance that George Osborne will take over from David Cameron. Boris has not held a high profile cabinet position and until he does it is difficult to judge his competence. If the referendum goes ahead in June then until the result and the dust has settled I do not expect that a clear heir to Cameron will become obvious.
If it is Leave or close then the likes of Fox will come into play, Osborne will inevitably be a contendor as Chancellor as may Hammond as Foreign Secretary, Boris has been Mayor of the biggest city in the country so it is not as if he has had no responsibility at all!
The referendum campaign will give the opportunity to several conservatives to star in their role, on either side, and should make the succession, whenever it is, very interesting. I do not see George Osborne or Hammond succeeding and you do not mention Teresa May. Boris has been London mayor but it is a huge step to Prime Minister as that will be the position the successor to DC will enter
Yes, if the election of Tory leader is to immediately take over as PM they will need to be someone of sufficient stature and experience in government.
Theresa May would be a safe pair of hands if DC stands down in the next year or so, she also has the added bonus of making the lefty feminists go ballistic at a second Tory woman PM.
Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn
I cannot see any circumstance that George Osborne will take over from David Cameron. Boris has not held a high profile cabinet position and until he does it is difficult to judge his competence. If the referendum goes ahead in June then until the result and the dust has settled I do not expect that a clear heir to Cameron will become obvious.
If it is Leave or close then the likes of Fox will come into play, Osborne will inevitably be a contendor as Chancellor as may Hammond as Foreign Secretary, Boris has been Mayor of the biggest city in the country so it is not as if he has had no responsibility at all!
The referendum campaign will give the opportunity to several conservatives to star in their role, on either side, and should make the succession, whenever it is, very interesting. I do not see George Osborne or Hammond succeeding and you do not mention Teresa May. Boris has been London mayor but it is a huge step to Prime Minister as that will be the position the successor to DC will enter
Yes, if the election of Tory leader is to immediately take over as PM they will need to be someone of sufficient stature and experience in government.
Theresa May would be a safe pair of hands if DC stands down in the next year or so, she also has the added bonus of making the lefty feminists go ballistic at a second Tory woman PM.
I cannot see Fox ascending. And if he did, I don't think I could vote for him, on the basis that he's an idiot.
Dave less popular than the Tories for the first time in ages.
John Mcdonnell disliked less than Osborne lol
Give it time. Osborne's star will rise again. How will you cope when George leads the Tories to a landslide in 2020?
Why would Osborne's ratings rise up to near positive levels? Voters by now will have made their minds up. Too many just do not like him.
Chancellors who deliver austerity are seldom popular.
His competency ratings when polled are generally higher.
What do you think about the growing concern of him acting as a part time chancellor etc?
I doubt most people have even noticed.
But it is not about voters understanding that, it is more about the effect it has on the government areas that he meddles in. Instead of a Chancellor focused 100% on his upcoming budget we have one distracted by many many other matters.
You said there was "growing concern" and people can't be concerned about something they haven't noticed!
Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn
I cannot see any circumstance that George Osborne will take over from David Cameron. Boris has not held a high profile cabinet position and until he does it is difficult to judge his competence. If the referendum goes ahead in June then until the result and the dust has settled I do not expect that a clear heir to Cameron will become obvious.
If it is Leave or close then the likes of Fox will come into play, Osborne will inevitably be a contendor as Chancellor as may Hammond as Foreign Secretary, Boris has been Mayor of the biggest city in the country so it is not as if he has had no responsibility at all!
The referendum campaign will give the opportunity to several conservatives to star in their role, on either side, and should make the succession, whenever it is, very interesting. I do not see George Osborne or Hammond succeeding and you do not mention Teresa May. Boris has been London mayor but it is a huge step to Prime Minister as that will be the position the successor to DC will enter
Yes, if the election of Tory leader is to immediately take over as PM they will need to be someone of sufficient stature and experience in government.
Theresa May would be a safe pair of hands if DC stands down in the next year or so, she also has the added bonus of making the lefty feminists go ballistic at a second Tory woman PM.
Isn't the problem that, at present, all the Conservative ministerial talent is lined up on the Remain side? If Leave wins the Tories will be picking from Fox, IDS, Grayling, Whittingdale ...
If he decided to lead the LEAVE campaign - or even just figure "prominently" - he would probably take it to victory, or at least to very narrow defeat.
Either way, he would then be assured of the Tory leadership after Cameron's departure. The party would demand it.
The problem is that Boris is on record being very pro EU at various City events as Mayor. He'll look like an opportunist flip flopper, if he suddenly decides that Out is best.
If he decided to lead the LEAVE campaign - or even just figure "prominently" - he would probably take it to victory, or at least to very narrow defeat.
Either way, he would then be assured of the Tory leadership after Cameron's departure. The party would demand it.
If Boris truly wants to lead the Conservative Party, then it seems a no-brainer to me.
But does he? After all, that would mean taking responsibility.
Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn
Boris is overwhelmingly popular as a politician, but when it comes to choosing a party leader the membership will struggle to take him seriously.
Being able to speak Latin does not make a statesman, he gives the impression of the man who would put a whoopee cushion under Mr Putin's chair as they sit down at a conference. The incumbent PM sets the bar very high for knowing how to conduct himself in a manner appropriate to the occasion.
Boris is not that dissimilar to Berlusconi and George W Bush on that score and both won elections!
Its only possible for Boris to be popular as a politician (in the same way that Clegg was before he became part of government) because he as yet has never had to actually do anything, never had to make a real political decision or choice that would hit people in different ways. It was thus with Blair until he had some difficult decisions to make. Popularity is not something that politicians can expect and its not something that should be a major criterion in judging them. Its one of the reasons why politicians seem time limited.
Mr. HYUFD, the latter was presidential only, and Italy's politics may not be similar to ours.
Boris' problem is that the PCP decides the two who go to the final ballot. Can't imagine he's got all that strong a support base. Probably seen as a mixture of a Flash Harry and Johnny Come Lately.
I agree getting through the MPs will be a hurdle but he could win the membership
Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn
I cannot see any circumstance that George Osborne will take over from David Cameron. Boris has not held a high profile cabinet position and until he does it is difficult to judge his competence. If the referendum goes ahead in June then until the result and the dust has settled I do not expect that a clear heir to Cameron will become obvious.
If it is Leave or close then the likes of Fox will come into play, Osborne will inevitably be a contendor as Chancellor as may Hammond as Foreign Secretary, Boris has been Mayor of the biggest city in the country so it is not as if he has had no responsibility at all!
The referendum campaign will give the opportunity to several conservatives to star in their role, on either side, and should make the succession, whenever it is, very interesting. I do not see George Osborne or Hammond succeeding and you do not mention Teresa May. Boris has been London mayor but it is a huge step to Prime Minister as that will be the position the successor to DC will enter
Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn
Boris is overwhelmingly popular as a politician, but when it comes to choosing a party leader the membership will struggle to take him seriously.
Being able to speak Latin does not make a statesman, he gives the impression of the man who would put a whoopee cushion under Mr Putin's chair as they sit down at a conference. The incumbent PM sets the bar very high for knowing how to conduct himself in a manner appropriate to the occasion.
Boris is not that dissimilar to Berlusconi and George W Bush on that score and both won elections!
Its only possible for Boris to be popular as a politician (in the same way that Clegg was before he became part of government) because he as yet has never had to actually do anything, never had to make a real political decision or choice that would hit people in different ways. It was thus with Blair until he had some difficult decisions to make. Popularity is not something that politicians can expect and its not something that should be a major criterion in judging them. Its one of the reasons why politicians seem time limited.
If you are looking for an election winner though it is better to pick someone popular than unpopular
If he decided to lead the LEAVE campaign - or even just figure "prominently" - he would probably take it to victory, or at least to very narrow defeat.
Either way, he would then be assured of the Tory leadership after Cameron's departure. The party would demand it.
And if it was a decisive Remain vote he would have gambled and lost. It is time that all the politicians campaign on their believes and not on their political futures, but maybe that is too much to ask
Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn
I cannot see any circumstance that George Osborne will take over from David Cameron. Boris has not held a high profile cabinet position and until he does it is difficult to judge his competence. If the referendum goes ahead in June then until the result and the dust has settled I do not expect that a clear heir to Cameron will become obvious.
If it is Leave or close then the likes of Fox will come into play, Osborne will inevitably be a contendor as Chancellor as may Hammond as Foreign Secretary, Boris has been Mayor of the biggest city in the country so it is not as if he has had no responsibility at all!
The referendum campaign will give the opportunity to several conservatives to star in their role, on either side, and should make the succession, whenever it is, very interesting. I do not see George Osborne or Hammond succeeding and you do not mention Teresa May. Boris has been London mayor but it is a huge step to Prime Minister as that will be the position the successor to DC will enter
Yes, if the election of Tory leader is to immediately take over as PM they will need to be someone of sufficient stature and experience in government.
Theresa May would be a safe pair of hands if DC stands down in the next year or so, she also has the added bonus of making the lefty feminists go ballistic at a second Tory woman PM.
Isn't the problem that, at present, all the Conservative ministerial talent is lined up on the Remain side? If Leave wins the Tories will be picking from Fox, IDS, Grayling, Whittingdale ...
Agree. It could be in the interests of a couple of those supporting the PM on the referendum to do so in name only and keep their heads down for the next few months, so as to be acceptable to the PCP and membership in the event of either result.
The poll is yet another lesson for the twitterati and facebook fanatics that in the real world forget overpaid medics and the eurofanatics - Jo Public hates politicians but knows which side its bread is buttered when it comes to basic politics. Not a bad lesson also for a few on here.
If he decided to lead the LEAVE campaign - or even just figure "prominently" - he would probably take it to victory, or at least to very narrow defeat.
Either way, he would then be assured of the Tory leadership after Cameron's departure. The party would demand it.
The problem is that Boris is on record being very pro EU at various City events as Mayor. He'll look like an opportunist flip flopper, if he suddenly decides that Out is best.
Yes, he'd lose a LOT of friends in the City and the arts and elsewhere. He'd have to get used to being unpopular, with important and influential people, for the first time in his life.
But the prize is correspondingly huge.
So after agreeing with the City (one of our major industries) that the EU is important to them and the country - he tells a load of barefaced lies based on personal crude self promoting opportunism and suggests we would be better off out. I suppose this may be sensible and indeed common place in your world.
If he decided to lead the LEAVE campaign - or even just figure "prominently" - he would probably take it to victory, or at least to very narrow defeat.
Either way, he would then be assured of the Tory leadership after Cameron's departure. The party would demand it.
If Boris truly wants to lead the Conservative Party, then it seems a no-brainer to me.
But does he? After all, that would mean taking responsibility.
Yes, it's an existential question for him. Is he just a successful shagger, very excellent journalist and rather good London mayor, with a surprisingly effective common touch? (these are not bad things, in themselves - for most people just one of these would denote a well-lived life)
Or does he REALLY want the big prize, with all the crap that comes with it. Along with a place in history?
It's dangling there, right in front of him. Oooh.
And it's a reasonable point. If you think that in the end, you are not up to the top job, (and being UK PM is probably one of the 20 most important jobs in the World) then there's no shame in ducking it.
The poll is yet another lesson for the twitterati and facebook fanatics that in the real world forget overpaid medics and the eurofanatics - Jo Public hates politicians but knows which side its bread is buttered when it comes to basic politics. Not a bad lesson also for a few on here.
This poll proves that I am right. As I predicted weeks ago, REMAIN will probably win, but it will come at an enormous cost: all the europhile establishment will be reviled, especially within the Tory party, as the emotional and patriotic backlash kicks in (cf Scotland after indyref, when the losing Nats benefited).
Labour can be ignored under Corbyn, the interesting stuff will happen to the Tories. I predict a peasants' revolt. The members will demand, and get, a very sceptic leader, and the whole referendum debate will begin once again, heading for a revote in 2025 or so.
Osborne will not be leader. The senior Tory who most successfully harnesses scepticism will lead.
Osborne is still probably more likely than not to be next Tory leader but if it is a narrow Remain win UKIP could hold the balance of power in a hung parliament at the next election
Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn
Boris is overwhelmingly popular as a politician, but when it comes to choosing a party leader the membership will struggle to take him seriously.
Being able to speak Latin does not make a statesman, he gives the impression of the man who would put a whoopee cushion under Mr Putin's chair as they sit down at a conference. The incumbent PM sets the bar very high for knowing how to conduct himself in a manner appropriate to the occasion.
Boris is not that dissimilar to Berlusconi and George W Bush on that score and both won elections!
Its only possible for Boris to be popular as a politician (in the same way that Clegg was before he became part of government) because he as yet has never had to actually do anything, never had to make a real political decision or choice that would hit people in different ways. It was thus with Blair until he had some difficult decisions to make. Popularity is not something that politicians can expect and its not something that should be a major criterion in judging them. Its one of the reasons why politicians seem time limited.
Blair would have been fine without Iraq. In the alternative universe he retired at Christmas 2002 and left Brown to make the decisions over Iraq.
The poll is yet another lesson for the twitterati and facebook fanatics that in the real world forget overpaid medics and the eurofanatics - Jo Public hates politicians but knows which side its bread is buttered when it comes to basic politics. Not a bad lesson also for a few on here.
This poll proves that I am right. As I predicted weeks ago, REMAIN will probably win, but it will come at an enormous cost: all the europhile establishment will be reviled, especially within the Tory party, as the emotional and patriotic backlash kicks in (cf Scotland after indyref, when the losing Nats benefited).
Labour can be ignored under Corbyn, the interesting stuff will happen to the Tories. I predict a peasants' revolt. The members will demand, and get, a very sceptic leader, and the whole referendum debate will begin once again, heading for a revote in 2025 or so.
Osborne will not be leader. The senior Tory who most successfully harnesses scepticism will lead.
Remain have already lost, at an emotional level. Very few people like the EU.
The argument is whether the lesser evil is to Leave or to Remain.
If he decided to lead the LEAVE campaign - or even just figure "prominently" - he would probably take it to victory, or at least to very narrow defeat.
Either way, he would then be assured of the Tory leadership after Cameron's departure. The party would demand it.
And if it was a decisive Remain vote he would have gambled and lost. It is time that all the politicians campaign on their believes and not on their political futures, but maybe that is too much to ask
If as expected more than half the Conservatives members vote to Leave then that is a very powerful group to be on the right side of. All who join the Leave camp may almost have their careers guaranteed.
Boris is overwhelmingly the most popular politician in the country, with a 40% favourable rating, almost 10% higher than Cameron and the only politician of any party with a net positive approval rating. If Boris were Tory leader in 2020 it could well be a landslide, if Osborne replaces Cameron as leader it looks like it could be a hung parliament, especially if Labour replace Corbyn
Boris is overwhelmingly popular as a politician, but when it comes to choosing a party leader the membership will struggle to take him seriously.
Being able to speak Latin does not make a statesman, he gives the impression of the man who would put a whoopee cushion under Mr Putin's chair as they sit down at a conference. The incumbent PM sets the bar very high for knowing how to conduct himself in a manner appropriate to the occasion.
Boris is not that dissimilar to Berlusconi and George W Bush on that score and both won elections!
Its only possible for Boris to be popular as a politician (in the same way that Clegg was before he became part of government) because he as yet has never had to actually do anything, never had to make a real political decision or choice that would hit people in different ways. It was thus with Blair until he had some difficult decisions to make. Popularity is not something that politicians can expect and its not something that should be a major criterion in judging them. Its one of the reasons why politicians seem time limited.
If you are looking for an election winner though it is better to pick someone popular than unpopular
If Boris were to be teleported into No.10 tomorrow morning there is no guarantee as to what his popularity would be in 2020. This is my point. Doing things, anything no matter what, creates unpopularity. When you are a government faced with a massive deficit you must inevitably do things which are unpopular. The latest scare is higher rate taxpayers and pensions. If the government seeks its money standard rate payers then another great swathe of people suddenly turn on them. If it cuts benefits than both groups get angry.
Comments
Surely we're approaching tipping point for the PLP.
In Feb 2011 Lab had a six point lead with ComRes.
Jez truly is dire, Labour closer to UKIP than they are to the Tories
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/12154770/retirement-crisis-pensions-tax-raid.html Lots of pissed off notionally Tory voters... better hope the referendum is on the EU and not the government, no danger of Corbyn and all that.
Thankfully it is looking increasingly likely that Osborne will never be leader.
lol
How will you cope when George leads the Tories to a landslide in 2020?
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/comres-sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll/
Cameron has lost 18% of his favourable rating in a month.
14 point gap between the top two the biggest since the early Blair days?
Labour are now closer to UKIP than the Tories.
LD legalise pot policy going down well?
The man is a genius. Geniuses are seldom acknowledged in their own lifetime.
Also, I said that Britain could comfortably take 10,000 migrants a month. Which, of course, it could.
His competency ratings when polled are generally higher.
I'd love to chat longer, but I'm only allowed 30 mins time in front of the screen every few hours.
I'll do an Osborne is awesome thread just for you, next weekend.
My criticism of him has always been that he is always after a political angle for everything, in much the same way as Brown was in the same position. Budget day in March is going to be one of the key dates in the diary of this Parliament - one way or the other.
"The EU is not a burning building. Of course it has problems. In the grand scheme of things they are relatively minor and in large part problems of affluence. There would be no migration crisis if European countries weren't seen as desirable places to come to. "
Congratulations on the EU's 21st !!!
I see the EU budget has not been signed off for the 21st year running by auditors who cite suspicions about the use of at least 4.8 billion of funds 500 million of which was from the UK. EU council of finance ministers pass the audit report anyway despite protest from the UK.
Daily Mail.
Nothing to see here move along please.... All is well...all is well.
@OliverKamm
It's 1 point less than Labour achieved under Michael Foot in the 1983 general election.
ComRes IoS S Mirror online poll:Just 12% of those who voted LAB at GE2015 have favourable view of shadow chancellor John. McDonnell
ComRes IoS S Mirror online poll: Just 47% of those who voted LAB at GE2015 have a favourable view of Corbyn
Being able to speak Latin does not make a statesman, he gives the impression of the man who would put a whoopee cushion under Mr Putin's chair as they sit down at a conference. The incumbent PM sets the bar very high for knowing how to conduct himself in a manner appropriate to the occasion.
Labour = Ted Cruz
UKIP = Marco Rubio
LD = Jeb Bush
Green = John Kasich
21% is simply horrid for a leader of the Opposition. Excluding don't knows, it implies a ceiling of 30% for Labour.
Boris' problem is that the PCP decides the two who go to the final ballot. Can't imagine he's got all that strong a support base. Probably seen as a mixture of a Flash Harry and Johnny Come Lately.
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of
(1) politicians?
(2) Junior doctors?
Firstly, Rubio is a total incompetent and Farage is... well... nowhere near as incompetent. And whatever you think about Farage, he's definitely not an 'empty suit'.
Secondly, Labour is so not Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz is beloved of religious fanatics of the same region. Jeremy Corbyn is beloved of religious fanatics of a different religion.
Thirdly, Donald Trump wins at negotiating.
Fourthly, Jeb Bush is quietly competent. The LibDems, by contrast, are inaudible.
Finally, Kasich can run a state. The Greens would leave you in a state.
Sorry but I just had to link to these
http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2016/02/12/27-hilarious-publishing-layout-failures-history/
Theresa May would be a safe pair of hands if DC stands down in the next year or so, she also has the added bonus of making the lefty feminists go ballistic at a second Tory woman PM.
But does he? After all, that would mean taking responsibility.
It was thus with Blair until he had some difficult decisions to make.
Popularity is not something that politicians can expect and its not something that should be a major criterion in judging them. Its one of the reasons why politicians seem time limited.
I suppose this may be sensible and indeed common place in your world.
The argument is whether the lesser evil is to Leave or to Remain.
The latest scare is higher rate taxpayers and pensions. If the government seeks its money standard rate payers then another great swathe of people suddenly turn on them. If it cuts benefits than both groups get angry.