politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Only one PB Oldham competition entrant over-stated Labour i
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Only one PB Oldham competition entrant over-stated Labour in the by-election and he wins by a huge margin
The sensational Oldham result took all but one of the 320 PB competition entrants by surprise. Michael Patterson wins the prize of the Cowley/Kavanagh book of the 2015 general election
Comments
-
Close, but no cigar...
Edit - at least I scored a first0 -
Michael Paterson PB Prognosticator Extraordinaire!0
-
Rather knocks on the head the 'at the beginning everyone expected a comfortable Labour hold and it's no surprise that's how it turned out' narrative.0
-
Wisdom of the crowds ...0
-
FPT Mr Herdson, you may like an alternative suggestion for the derivation of 'I'll eat my hat if...':
"An alternative derivation has been put forward. This maintains that 'hattes' were mediaeval veal pies and hence the phrase derives from them. There is some evidence that 'hattes' were a form of pie. " http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/eat-my-hat.html
Many years ago I read a variation of this (source long since forgotten), that 'hatte' was a fermented milk concoction fed Dutch kids as a tonic. Thus it was a bargaining ploy by kids which evolved into the meaning of "I'm so confident this won't happen that I'll promise to do something really undesirable if it does."
If indeed it is a venison pie, eating your hat may be quite pleasurable, depending on the cook and the recipe.0 -
I expected a very comfortable Labour win, had £75 on them at around 1-5 as my first bets on the contest. The later smoke signals sent me completely off kilter.Theuniondivvie said:Rather knocks on the head the 'at the beginning everyone expected a comfortable Labour hold and it's no surprise that's how it turned out' narrative.
0 -
I'm trying to recall when the narrative became UKIP as a contender rather than the Labour walkover we all expected to begin with.
Anyone remember?0 -
Indeed.RobD said:Michael Paterson PB Prognosticator Extraordinaire!
Also:
"p.s. I have a mea culpa to admit. Before the Oldham polling day, I confidently stated that Labour would not increase its vote share. Indeed, so categorical was I that I said I would eat Lord Ashdown’s hat it they did. Well, no-one gets it right all the time and I was probably tempting fate quoting that foolishly dismissive reference. I trust the honourable readers of politicalbetting will permit me to consume humble pie in lieu of the Lib Dem Lord’s headwear (which in any case, he should have already eaten)."
I think that's accepted, humble pie it is.
But Lord Ashdown's hat is becoming more and more notorious in prediction circles.
Something like Macbeth in acting circles:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h--HR7PWfp0
From now on it's best to never say that notorious phrase when making a prediction.
0 -
You can find your entry here if you cannot remember what it was...
http://show.nojam.com/a2t7/search.php?b=0
0 -
I think it built gradually from anecdotal reports from journalists and Labour canvassers about how hostile many people in Oldham were towards Corbyn (talk of doors being slammed in faces, leaflets being handed back, etc.).Plato_Says said:I'm trying to recall when the narrative became UKIP as a contender rather than the Labour walkover we all expected to begin with.
Anyone remember?
However, in light of the result, it may just have been that people who were already anti-Labour were more vocal than they would usually have been.0 -
Plato Exactly..no one in their right mind expected Labour to lose Oldham..except a few fruitcakes in UKIP..that is why the resulting numbers are appalling.. and certainly not stupendous0
-
Great trivia.MTimT said:
FPT Mr Herdson, you may like an alternative suggestion for the derivation of 'I'll eat my hat if...':
"An alternative derivation has been put forward. This maintains that 'hattes' were mediaeval veal pies and hence the phrase derives from them. There is some evidence that 'hattes' were a form of pie. " http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/eat-my-hat.html
Many years ago I read a variation of this (source long since forgotten), that 'hatte' was a fermented milk concoction fed Dutch kids as a tonic. Thus it was a bargaining ploy by kids which evolved into the meaning of "I'm so confident this won't happen that I'll promise to do something really undesirable if it does."
If indeed it is a venison pie, eating your hat may be quite pleasurable, depending on the cook and the recipe.0 -
Here's a supposition
"Ultimately, we do not have a reliable indicator of election percentages. Polls, betting odds, modellers, wisdom indices, all have a undesirably large margin of error and are sometimes catastrophically wrong. Future research should concentrate on the one thing that we might be able to predict correctly: namely, who will come first. Predictions of ercentages or margins should be abandoned"
Any thoughts?0 -
The day Meacher died.Plato_Says said:I'm trying to recall when the narrative became UKIP as a contender rather than the Labour walkover we all expected to begin with.
Anyone remember?
The original speculation started from anti-Corbynites that since Corbyn is so unpopular and an electoral disaster even UKIP can at least come close, many mentioning Heywood as an example.
HYUFD in particular constantly mentioned that Corbyn would lose Oldham in order to lead to his replacement with a coronation of Hilary Benn, per his usual theory of historical repeats of the IDS situation.0 -
Errr no it doesn't - the early 'PB wisdom' pre-dated the competition by some time.Theuniondivvie said:Rather knocks on the head the 'at the beginning everyone expected a comfortable Labour hold and it's no surprise that's how it turned out' narrative.
0 -
When is the result due in the Alistair Carmichael case?0
-
I agree, however even that is a bit misleading as it is influenced by the environment of "polls, betting odds, modellers", also the media and party affiliation.viewcode said:Here's a supposition
"Ultimately, we do not have a reliable indicator of election percentages. Polls, betting odds, modellers, wisdom indices, all have a undesirably large margin of error and are sometimes catastrophically wrong. Future research should concentrate on the one thing that we might be able to predict correctly: namely, who will come first. Predictions of ercentages or margins should be abandoned"
Any thoughts?
0 -
isam said:
'I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?'
I think the key change for Benn will have been the UN resolution.0 -
Is there a full ranking?0
-
felix said
'Indeed - so you're happy for all benefits and wages to be cut by around 1% immediately as prices are falling?'
That is a separate issue - though if the price level did fall by a third all Benefits - including Retirement Pensions - would have to be cut! It would be a deflationary environment of which we have no experience but if it came to pass all Government spending would have to fall in nominal terms. Employers would have to do likewise - otherwise few would survive!0 -
I'm talking about several comments made after the by-election, not "early 'PB wisdom'", whatever that is.felix said:
Errr no it doesn't - the early 'PB wisdom' pre-dated the competition by some time.Theuniondivvie said:Rather knocks on the head the 'at the beginning everyone expected a comfortable Labour hold and it's no surprise that's how it turned out' narrative.
0 -
That changed my mind too in favour of airstrikes, however the subsequent turkish-russian military incident changed my mind against once more.justin124 said:
isam said:
'I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?'
I think the key change for Benn will have been the UN resolution.
Benn remained a step behind the curve, or simply that he calculated that Corbyn would take a big hit in the Oldham by-election and started believing that he could take the leadership, so he wanted to be on the right side of the narrative (or even worse he reads PB and believed all that HYUFD stuff about his coronation).0 -
FPT:
Marvellous Music though. Used to play the theme tune a lot when I was a youngster.notme said:
A scene in HG Wells Things to Come, always makes me chuckle:taffys said:'In a centuries time people will be massovely more prosperous than today and fretting about the impact of the "truly remarkable" technology yet to come ...''
Some feminists are so worried about the impact of sex robots they are urging for them to be banned.
https://youtu.be/atwfWEKz00U?t=5m26s
Your browser should take you to the exact spot, but if it doesnt, start at 5m26s, listen to what the old man says....
0 -
I think you are wrong about Benn's motives. From what I have been told he does not actually want the leadership - in the same way that Alan Johnson has consistently turned it down. He is probably 'too nice' and would find the associated pressures very unwelcome. If he ever becomes Leader it will be as a result of it being effectively forced upon him - he will certainly never manoeuvre or campaign for it.Speedy said:
That changed my mind too in favour of airstrikes, however the subsequent turkish-russian military incident changed my mind against once more.justin124 said:
isam said:
'I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?'
I think the key change for Benn will have been the UN resolution.
Benn remained a step behind the curve, or simply that he calculated that Corbyn would take a big hit in the Oldham by-election and started believing that he could take the leadership, so he wanted to be on the right side of the narrative (or even worse he reads PB and believed all that HYUFD stuff about his coronation).0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Whilst apparently not very cold, the constant wind/rain certainly makes it feel wintry. Ten inches of rain is expected to deluge the north-west, which sounds horrendous.
Congrats to Mr. Paterson.0 -
F1: hmm. Apparently it's possible the Lotus drivers Maldonado and Palmer won't be retained by Renault. It'd be a shame for the Briton if, having secured the seat after a year as the third driver, he then had it snatched away before his first season even begun.0
-
Missed the competition myself, which is a shame as I would have got it spot on. The northern vote-Labour-to-my-dying-day factor combined with UKIP's having a look of last year's fad about them made this result highly deducible. UKIP need to reinvent themselves. The media are getting bored with them after too many false dawns. I can see them fading away completely in the coming years, with perhaps Carswell lingering on in Clacton as a sort of artefact and curiosity.But who in UKIP can halt the decline?0
-
If the price level falls at all surely govts and employers are justified in reducing benefits and wages. Government spending would fall - yes but it should not affect services at all. I don't know if the Labour party in general accept this logic!justin124 said:
felix said
'Indeed - so you're happy for all benefits and wages to be cut by around 1% immediately as prices are falling?'
That is a separate issue - though if the price level did fall by a third all Benefits - including Retirement Pensions - would have to be cut! It would be a deflationary environment of which we have no experience but if it came to pass all Government spending would have to fall in nominal terms. Employers would have to do likewise - otherwise few would survive!0 -
Mr. Dawning, Farage. By leaving.
However, as per Cameron leading the Leave campaign, I shall believe this when I see it.0 -
As David Herdson said in the previous thread header, the EUref is a golden opportunity for a UKIP revival (especially since there's a high chance of more Tory MPs defecting if they feel the Tory leadership had "conned" their way to a Remain vote).Stark_Dawning said:Missed the competition myself, which is a shame as I would have got it spot on. The northern vote-Labour-to-my-dying-day factor combined with UKIP's having a look of last year's fad about them made this result highly deducible. UKIP need to reinvent themselves. The media are getting bored with them after too many false dawns. I can see them fading away completely in the coming years, with perhaps Carswell lingering on in Clacton as a sort of artefact and curiosity.But who in UKIP can halt the decline?
0 -
Of course, any by-election would be a Tory gain......Danny565 said:
Trying to keep a straight face...0 -
OT. On the previous thread Foxinsox was claiming that most of the massacres of the Assyrians and other minorities between 1915 and 1923 was carried out by the Kurds. This is absolutely not true. Whilst the Turkish Government did encourage the militias of all the minorities to fight each other and massacres did occur, the vast majority of massacres and the genocide of the minorities including Kurds, Armenians and Assyrians was carried out by the regular Turkish army.
Indeed one of the greatest stories never told about the end of WW1 was the small detachment of volunteers from Dunsterforce who travelled north from Persia into Turkey to rescue the Assyrian population who were fleeing the regular Turkish army who were advancing around Lake Van and massacring the Assyrians. These few men armed with Lewis guns guarded the passes south and formed a rearguard against a division of Turkish troops allowing tens of thousands of Assyrians to escape to safety.0 -
It is their big chance but they've not started well and Farage is increasingly a big negative - unfortunately for UKIP his ego is even bigger than his need to step down.Danny565 said:
As David Herdson said in the previous thread header, the EUref is a golden opportunity for a UKIP revival (especially since there's a high chance of more Tory MPs defecting if they feel the Tory leadership had "conned" their way to a Remain vote).Stark_Dawning said:Missed the competition myself, which is a shame as I would have got it spot on. The northern vote-Labour-to-my-dying-day factor combined with UKIP's having a look of last year's fad about them made this result highly deducible. UKIP need to reinvent themselves. The media are getting bored with them after too many false dawns. I can see them fading away completely in the coming years, with perhaps Carswell lingering on in Clacton as a sort of artefact and curiosity.But who in UKIP can halt the decline?
0 -
That's true. Middlesbrough hasn't seen the sun since 1834.RobD said:
0 -
Mr. 565, after seeing what happened in 2015, and with Cameron going before 2020?
They'd be nuts to defect (unless Cameron's replacement was a raving EU-phile).0 -
I can't think of anything to say to that. So I'll just leave it there.Stark_Dawning said:Missed the competition myself, which is a shame as I would have got it spot on....
0 -
Shows how dominated PB is from blues to nutters kippers.0
-
What is UKIPs official position now, 36 hours later, regarding vote tampering in Oldham ?felix said:
It is their big chance but they've not started well and Farage is increasingly a big negative - unfortunately for UKIP his ego is even bigger than his need to step down.Danny565 said:
As David Herdson said in the previous thread header, the EUref is a golden opportunity for a UKIP revival (especially since there's a high chance of more Tory MPs defecting if they feel the Tory leadership had "conned" their way to a Remain vote).Stark_Dawning said:Missed the competition myself, which is a shame as I would have got it spot on. The northern vote-Labour-to-my-dying-day factor combined with UKIP's having a look of last year's fad about them made this result highly deducible. UKIP need to reinvent themselves. The media are getting bored with them after too many false dawns. I can see them fading away completely in the coming years, with perhaps Carswell lingering on in Clacton as a sort of artefact and curiosity.But who in UKIP can halt the decline?
0 -
The last thing you would want to do in deflationary circumstances s to cut wages.felix said:
If the price level falls at all surely govts and employers are justified in reducing benefits and wages. Government spending would fall - yes but it should not affect services at all. I don't know if the Labour party in general accept this logic!justin124 said:
felix said
'Indeed - so you're happy for all benefits and wages to be cut by around 1% immediately as prices are falling?'
That is a separate issue - though if the price level did fall by a third all Benefits - including Retirement Pensions - would have to be cut! It would be a deflationary environment of which we have no experience but if it came to pass all Government spending would have to fall in nominal terms. Employers would have to do likewise - otherwise few would survive!0 -
I think it's something along the lines of "Youze bastidz, you promised me, you bitzchzz, come back, COME BACK, I DINT'T MEAN IT, baztidz, never loved me anyway...." (collapses and throws up)surbiton said:
What is UKIPs official position now, 36 hours later, regarding vote tampering in Oldham ?felix said:
It is their big chance but they've not started well and Farage is increasingly a big negative - unfortunately for UKIP his ego is even bigger than his need to step down.Danny565 said:
As David Herdson said in the previous thread header, the EUref is a golden opportunity for a UKIP revival (especially since there's a high chance of more Tory MPs defecting if they feel the Tory leadership had "conned" their way to a Remain vote).Stark_Dawning said:Missed the competition myself, which is a shame as I would have got it spot on. The northern vote-Labour-to-my-dying-day factor combined with UKIP's having a look of last year's fad about them made this result highly deducible. UKIP need to reinvent themselves. The media are getting bored with them after too many false dawns. I can see them fading away completely in the coming years, with perhaps Carswell lingering on in Clacton as a sort of artefact and curiosity.But who in UKIP can halt the decline?
0 -
What about that "Observer" writing in Labourlist who could not meet a single Labour supporter having a good word for Corbyn ? Same with BBC news and Newsnight.richardDodd said:Plato Exactly..no one in their right mind expected Labour to lose Oldham..except a few fruitcakes in UKIP..that is why the resulting numbers are appalling.. and certainly not stupendous
0 -
Well, yes, but the only thing we (PB.com) can consistently do is predict the winner (and arguably who will come second). Even then, there are exceptions (George Galloway). But at 11pm we're pretty good at predicting who will have the most votes when the results are announced at 1-3am. And if we stick to that, we may make some money. Because right now, we're not really doing that.Speedy said:
I agree, however even that is a bit misleading as it is influenced by the environment of "polls, betting odds, modellers", also the media and party affiliation.viewcode said:Here's a supposition
"Ultimately, we do not have a reliable indicator of election percentages. Polls, betting odds, modellers, wisdom indices, all have a undesirably large margin of error and are sometimes catastrophically wrong. Future research should concentrate on the one thing that we might be able to predict correctly: namely, who will come first. Predictions of ercentages or margins should be abandoned"
Any thoughts?0 -
Guess the Man U score at half time ?
You all got it right this time.
0 - 00 -
Who do they dislike more: Corbyn or UKIP?RobD said:
Clearly they held their noses!surbiton said:
What about that "Observer" writing in Labourlist who could not meet a single Labour supporter having a good word for Corbyn ? Same with BBC news and Newsnight.
Right now that's clearly UKIP.
Perhaps when Corbyn's true nature drives home more widely, that answer will change.
0 -
Surbiton..who gives a shit what some journo writes.. the only thing that matters is a massive 27% approx drop in the majority...if I were a Labour analyst..strategist..I would be crapping myself..by election or not...0
-
Congratulations to Michael.0
-
What a silly billy.
'Tory MP who voted to bomb Syria in Facebook death threat row after adding 'unless you die' to constituent's email'
http://tinyurl.com/j4otpww
Seems you're nobody nowadays unless you've had a death threat.0 -
To say that PB got the winner right, when Labour won by 40 points, is hardly a prediction.HYUFD said:
The PB average still got the winner right, Labour, they just had a narrow Labour win rather than a comfortable Labour win, congratulations to Michael Paterson nonethelesssurbiton said:Shows how dominated PB is from blues to nutters kippers.
0 -
Mr. Hopkins, more important, I'd argue, is that the vote was not one that would conceivably change who the PM was.
When it's Corbyn versus Someone Else, the Someone Else (hopefully...) will have the significant advantage of not being a total fruitcake.0 -
MarkHopkins said:
Who do they dislike more: Corbyn or UKIP?RobD said:
Clearly they held their noses!surbiton said:
What about that "Observer" writing in Labourlist who could not meet a single Labour supporter having a good word for Corbyn ? Same with BBC news and Newsnight.
Right now that's clearly UKIP.
Perhaps when Corbyn's true nature drives home more widely, that answer will change.
Who do they dislike more - Corbyn, UKIP or Manchester United?0 -
Lucy Allan, 51, published a genuine email from a voter who branded her 'an empty shell of a human being' and 'detached from reality' but added the words 'unless you die' and put it on Facebook.Theuniondivvie said:What a silly billy.
'Tory MP who voted to bomb Syria in Facebook death threat row after adding 'unless you die' to constituent's email'
http://tinyurl.com/j4otpww
Seems you're nobody nowadays unless you've had a death threat.
What a b1tch ! She spoilt her own case.
0 -
The Consumer Price Index is not a measure of the cost of living.felix said:
If the price level falls at all surely govts and employers are justified in reducing benefits and wages. Government spending would fall - yes but it should not affect services at all. I don't know if the Labour party in general accept this logic!justin124 said:
felix said
'Indeed - so you're happy for all benefits and wages to be cut by around 1% immediately as prices are falling?'
That is a separate issue - though if the price level did fall by a third all Benefits - including Retirement Pensions - would have to be cut! It would be a deflationary environment of which we have no experience but if it came to pass all Government spending would have to fall in nominal terms. Employers would have to do likewise - otherwise few would survive!
House prices and house rental have been increasing at between 5% and 10% for some years but not included in the CPI.
In the real world housing costs are a high proportion of spending and house price inflation is a killer for younger and/or less wealthy people.0 -
PB comments areas of expertise: why Jeremy Corbyn is going to lose the next election
PB comments areas of little expertise: forecasting election results0 -
Mr. EPG, hmm.
I'm sure the site would welcome your own Delphic predictions.0 -
Still correct though and the winner elects the MP whether they win by 1 vote or 30,000surbiton said:
To say that PB got the winner right, when Labour won by 40 points, is hardly a prediction.HYUFD said:
The PB average still got the winner right, Labour, they just had a narrow Labour win rather than a comfortable Labour win, congratulations to Michael Paterson nonethelesssurbiton said:Shows how dominated PB is from blues to nutters kippers.
0 -
The candidate for the party led by David Cameron up against Corbyn-led Labour dropped around a 'massive' 5.5k/70% of their GE vote. Would you say that's down to a crappy party, leader or candidate?richardDodd said:Surbiton..who gives a shit what some journo writes.. the only thing that matters is a massive 27% approx drop in the majority...if I were a Labour analyst..strategist..I would be crapping myself..by election or not...
0 -
Just had the pleasures of the Dundee Conservative Christmas lunch. Guest speaker Ian Duncan MEP. Quite an interesting speech but the most interesting point is his opinion that the EU referendum is going to be in that week of September 2016. Anyone know where you can get the best odds on the date?0
-
Did the Tories even try?Theuniondivvie said:
The candidate for the party led by David Cameron up against Corbyn-led Labour dropped around a 'massive' 5.5k/70% of their GE vote. Would you say that's down to a crappy party, leader or candidate?richardDodd said:Surbiton..who gives a shit what some journo writes.. the only thing that matters is a massive 27% approx drop in the majority...if I were a Labour analyst..strategist..I would be crapping myself..by election or not...
0 -
It's also possible that he was briefed on Privy Council terms on intelligence briefings.justin124 said:
isam said:
'I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?'
I think the key change for Benn will have been the UN resolution.
0 -
No, we weren't. We massively predicted a hung parliament. Just like everybody else. Arguably we were better at predicting who would have the most votes/seats, but then again, so did the pollsters. We were as gobsmacked at the exit poll as anybody else. We were even more gobsmacked at the actual result (narrow blue majority). We should not take refuge in false recall nor "if I had predicted I would have got it right"HYUFD said:
I think PB, on average, was a more accurate forecaster of the general election result than most of the pollstersEPG said:PB comments areas of expertise: why Jeremy Corbyn is going to lose the next election
PB comments areas of little expertise: forecasting election results
If you'll excuse me reiterating what I said below: we should give up predicting margins, percentages, number of seats, and limit ourselves to saying who will have the most votes/seats. Collectively, PB is quite good at that.0 -
In the Uxbridge by-election in July 1997 the Tory vote rose by 7.6% while Blair's Labour saw a 2.5% fall in their GE vote despite being up against the Hague-led Tories, Blair still won the 2001 election by a landslideTheuniondivvie said:
The candidate for the party led by David Cameron up against Corbyn-led Labour dropped around a 'massive' 5.5k/70% of their GE vote. Would you say that's down to a crappy party, leader or candidate?richardDodd said:Surbiton..who gives a shit what some journo writes.. the only thing that matters is a massive 27% approx drop in the majority...if I were a Labour analyst..strategist..I would be crapping myself..by election or not...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_by-election,_19970 -
Is that compatible with an agreement with the Council of Ministers in Feb 2016? Especially with respect to the need to add 16-17 yr olds to the register?DavidL said:Just had the pleasures of the Dundee Conservative Christmas lunch. Guest speaker Ian Duncan MEP. Quite an interesting speech but the most interesting point is his opinion that the EU referendum is going to be in that week of September 2016. Anyone know where you can get the best odds on the date?
0 -
That's because of the partisan bias which coincided negatively with the poll bias, rather than any particular Delphic (nice word, credit to Morris_Dancer) abilityHYUFD said:
I think PB, on average, was a more accurate forecaster of the general election result than most of the pollstersEPG said:PB comments areas of expertise: why Jeremy Corbyn is going to lose the next election
PB comments areas of little expertise: forecasting election results0 -
The referendum is indeed a chance for UKIP to revive itself, but I'm sorry to say there'll be no further defections while Nigel is around. I hope a dignified end can be brought to his leadership, without him UKIP would be nowhere, he's a very good man but it's time for a change.Danny565 said:
As David Herdson said in the previous thread header, the EUref is a golden opportunity for a UKIP revival (especially since there's a high chance of more Tory MPs defecting if they feel the Tory leadership had "conned" their way to a Remain vote).Stark_Dawning said:Missed the competition myself, which is a shame as I would have got it spot on. The northern vote-Labour-to-my-dying-day factor combined with UKIP's having a look of last year's fad about them made this result highly deducible. UKIP need to reinvent themselves. The media are getting bored with them after too many false dawns. I can see them fading away completely in the coming years, with perhaps Carswell lingering on in Clacton as a sort of artefact and curiosity.But who in UKIP can halt the decline?
0 -
Man United under LVG: lots of foreplay , very little penetration !0
-
You mean more than Spurs or Leeds?David_Evershed said:MarkHopkins said:
Who do they dislike more: Corbyn or UKIP?RobD said:
Clearly they held their noses!surbiton said:
What about that "Observer" writing in Labourlist who could not meet a single Labour supporter having a good word for Corbyn ? Same with BBC news and Newsnight.
Right now that's clearly UKIP.
Perhaps when Corbyn's true nature drives home more widely, that answer will change.
Who do they dislike more - Corbyn, UKIP or Manchester United?0 -
In 2010 there was a majority government and PB comments predicted another majority governmentviewcode said:
No, we weren't. We massively predicted a hung parliament. Just like everybody else. Arguably we were better at predicting who would have the most votes/seats, but then again, so did the pollsters. We were as gobsmacked at the exit poll as anybody else. We were even more gobsmacked at the actual result (narrow blue majority). We should not take refuge in false recall nor "if I had predicted I would have got it right"HYUFD said:
I think PB, on average, was a more accurate forecaster of the general election result than most of the pollstersEPG said:PB comments areas of expertise: why Jeremy Corbyn is going to lose the next election
PB comments areas of little expertise: forecasting election results
If you'll excuse me reiterating what I said below: we should give up predicting margins, percentages, number of seats, and limit ourselves to saying who will have the most votes/seats. Collectively, PB is quite good at that.
In 2015 there was a hung parliament and PB comments predicted another hung parliament
With 2020 in mind, there is currently a majority government and PB comments predicts another majority government
As for 2020 Common(s) sense says that Corbyn will be a vote repellent, that is not coming from any deep political knowledge only found here though0 -
Don't know but he is very well connected and seemed very sure. Well worth a punt if decent odds available.viewcode said:
Is that compatible with an agreement with the Council of Ministers in Feb 2016? Especially with respect to the need to add 16-17 yr olds to the register?DavidL said:Just had the pleasures of the Dundee Conservative Christmas lunch. Guest speaker Ian Duncan MEP. Quite an interesting speech but the most interesting point is his opinion that the EU referendum is going to be in that week of September 2016. Anyone know where you can get the best odds on the date?
0 -
PB got the largest party right in 2010 and 2015 and also predicted Obama would be re-elected in 2012 amongst others (OGH indeed predicted he would be elected prior to 2008) and overall thought No would win indyref, that may not be spot on on margins but that is much more difficult to predict, however PB generally calls the winner rightviewcode said:
No, we weren't. We massively predicted a hung parliament. Just like everybody else. Arguably we were better at predicting who would have the most votes/seats, but then again, so did the pollsters. We were as gobsmacked at the exit poll as anybody else. We were even more gobsmacked at the actual result (narrow blue majority). We should not take refuge in false recall nor "if I had predicted I would have got it right"HYUFD said:
I think PB, on average, was a more accurate forecaster of the general election result than most of the pollstersEPG said:PB comments areas of expertise: why Jeremy Corbyn is going to lose the next election
PB comments areas of little expertise: forecasting election results
If you'll excuse me reiterating what I said below: we should give up predicting margins, percentages, number of seats, and limit ourselves to saying who will have the most votes/seats. Collectively, PB is quite good at that.0 -
IIRC PB got the Conservatives spot on in 2010, but overestimated the Lib Dems and underestimated Labour by 20 or so.HYUFD said:
PB got the largest party right in 2010 and 2015 and also predicted Obama would be re-elected in 2012 amongst others (OGH indeed predicted he would be elected prior to 2008) and overall thought No would win indyref, that may not be spot on on margins but that is much more difficult to predict, however PB generally calls the winner rightviewcode said:
No, we weren't. We massively predicted a hung parliament. Just like everybody else. Arguably we were better at predicting who would have the most votes/seats, but then again, so did the pollsters. We were as gobsmacked at the exit poll as anybody else. We were even more gobsmacked at the actual result (narrow blue majority). We should not take refuge in false recall nor "if I had predicted I would have got it right"HYUFD said:
I think PB, on average, was a more accurate forecaster of the general election result than most of the pollstersEPG said:PB comments areas of expertise: why Jeremy Corbyn is going to lose the next election
PB comments areas of little expertise: forecasting election results
If you'll excuse me reiterating what I said below: we should give up predicting margins, percentages, number of seats, and limit ourselves to saying who will have the most votes/seats. Collectively, PB is quite good at that.0 -
How do the left generally rationalise outsourcing our foreign policy to the approval of Russia, China...and France?justin124 said:
isam said:
'I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?'
I think the key change for Benn will have been the UN resolution.
That's effectively what the insistence on a security council resolution means (I've assumed they already believe the US has a decisive say).
This is a genuine question, btw: I just can't understand the rationale.0 -
Mr. Charles, it seems barking mad to me as well.
But then, so does the concept of a legal war. Will Daesh sue us if we have an illegal one?0 -
It is not about the Labour party but the electorate at large - the problem of 'money illusion'!felix said:
If the price level falls at all surely govts and employers are justified in reducing benefits and wages. Government spending would fall - yes but it should not affect services at all. I don't know if the Labour party in general accept this logic!justin124 said:
felix said
'Indeed - so you're happy for all benefits and wages to be cut by around 1% immediately as prices are falling?'
That is a separate issue - though if the price level did fall by a third all Benefits - including Retirement Pensions - would have to be cut! It would be a deflationary environment of which we have no experience but if it came to pass all Government spending would have to fall in nominal terms. Employers would have to do likewise - otherwise few would survive!0 -
Yes but in many parts of the UK house prices are still below or barely above 2008 levels while mortgage rates are very low. It's not all about Londonand the SE.David_Evershed said:
The Consumer Price Index is not a measure of the cost of living.felix said:
If the price level falls at all surely govts and employers are justified in reducing benefits and wages. Government spending would fall - yes but it should not affect services at all. I don't know if the Labour party in general accept this logic!justin124 said:
felix said
'Indeed - so you're happy for all benefits and wages to be cut by around 1% immediately as prices are falling?'
That is a separate issue - though if the price level did fall by a third all Benefits - including Retirement Pensions - would have to be cut! It would be a deflationary environment of which we have no experience but if it came to pass all Government spending would have to fall in nominal terms. Employers would have to do likewise - otherwise few would survive!
House prices and house rental have been increasing at between 5% and 10% for some years but not included in the CPI.
In the real world housing costs are a high proportion of spending and house price inflation is a killer for younger and/or less wealthy people.0 -
There is some 37-1 available on Mahrez for Prem top scorer on betfair btw, he'll be on 10, in 2nd place 4 behind Vardy after today's match.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/football/market/1.1182801530 -
The govt will probably reject this and the Parlt act can only delay for a year from the date of the introduction of a bill..(assuming the H/L tries to push their luck.viewcode said:
Is that compatible with an agreement with the Council of Ministers in Feb 2016? Especially with respect to the need to add 16-17 yr olds to the register?DavidL said:Just had the pleasures of the Dundee Conservative Christmas lunch. Guest speaker Ian Duncan MEP. Quite an interesting speech but the most interesting point is his opinion that the EU referendum is going to be in that week of September 2016. Anyone know where you can get the best odds on the date?
0 -
Indeed, predicting the margin is more difficultSean_F said:
IIRC PB got the Conservatives spot on in 2010, but overestimated the Lib Dems and underestimated Labour by 20 or so.HYUFD said:
PB got the largest party right in 2010 and 2015 and also predicted Obama would be re-elected in 2012 amongst others (OGH indeed predicted he would be elected prior to 2008) and overall thought No would win indyref, that may not be spot on on margins but that is much more difficult to predict, however PB generally calls the winner rightviewcode said:
No, we weren't. We massively predicted a hung parliament. Just like everybody else. Arguably we were better at predicting who would have the most votes/seats, but then again, so did the pollsters. We were as gobsmacked at the exit poll as anybody else. We were even more gobsmacked at the actual result (narrow blue majority). We should not take refuge in false recall nor "if I had predicted I would have got it right"HYUFD said:
I think PB, on average, was a more accurate forecaster of the general election result than most of the pollstersEPG said:PB comments areas of expertise: why Jeremy Corbyn is going to lose the next election
PB comments areas of little expertise: forecasting election results
If you'll excuse me reiterating what I said below: we should give up predicting margins, percentages, number of seats, and limit ourselves to saying who will have the most votes/seats. Collectively, PB is quite good at that.0 -
Really. Are you saying that the UN has no part to play and that when it does sanction action then it is meaningless?Charles said:
How do the left generally rationalise outsourcing our foreign policy to the approval of Russia, China...and France?justin124 said:
isam said:
'I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?'
I think the key change for Benn will have been the UN resolution.
That's effectively what the insistence on a security council resolution means (I've assumed they already believe the US has a decisive say).
This is a genuine question, btw: I just can't understand the rationale.
0 -
It has nothing to do with the Left or the Right. We have signed treaties - indeed we instigated many of the treaties - that say we will abide by an international code of conduct and the arbiter of that code will be the United Nations. We spend a great deal of time using that leverage to try and make other countries behave in what we consider to be a reasonable manner. That has a price and that price is that if we want to go and kill people in another part of the world we get the agreement, willingly given of not, from the other major powers.Charles said:
How do the left generally rationalise outsourcing our foreign policy to the approval of Russia, China...and France?justin124 said:
isam said:
'I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?'
I think the key change for Benn will have been the UN resolution.
That's effectively what the insistence on a security council resolution means (I've assumed they already believe the US has a decisive say).
This is a genuine question, btw: I just can't understand the rationale.
It is a system which I believe has a great deal of merit, based as it is on a shared set of values - a set which, as it happens, we were able to have a great deal of influence over when it might so easily have been other countries who have a different cultural outlook to ours.
0 -
Yes - thisjustin124 said:
isam said:
'I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?'
I think the key change for Benn will have been the UN resolution.
Did you see in the Spectator article, how the momentum types are now saying that it is foolish to use the UN as a measure of whether military action is justified - when those Tory bar stewards the Chinese and Russians can't be relied on to vote no?
Almost as if they were using the UN as an excuse....0 -
When was the last time all 5 permanent members of security council of the UN voted in favour of military action - no abstentions?Cyclefree said:
It's also possible that he was briefed on Privy Council terms on intelligence briefings.justin124 said:
isam said:
'I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?'
I think the key change for Benn will have been the UN resolution.0 -
Wow http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/colombia/12035173/Colombia-says-it-has-found-San-Jose-treasure-ship.html
Colombia has found a Spanish treasure galleon that sank three hundred years ago off the coast of Cartagena, reputedly loaded with emeralds, gold and silver coins.
President Juan Manuel Santos made the announcement on Twitter.
“Great news! We have found the San Jose galleon. Tomorrow we will provide details at a press conference from Cartagena,” he said.
It could reveal one of the great lost treasure chests, with valuables worth as much as $17 billion (£11 billion).0 -
So why no Chapter 7 resolution ?Malmesbury said:
When was the last time all 5 permanent members of security council of the UN voted in favour of military action - no abstentions?Cyclefree said:
It's also possible that he was briefed on Privy Council terms on intelligence briefings.justin124 said:
isam said:
'I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?'
I think the key change for Benn will have been the UN resolution.0 -
List of all the competition results in winning order
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_IyFniOZG2ATHjS00E99v_k06ZujKu2otE9aNfILm5s/edit?usp=sharing
0 -
He was way off on the Greens prediction - no good!0
-
Average actions for a Tory, they are not the NASTY party for nothing.surbiton said:
Lucy Allan, 51, published a genuine email from a voter who branded her 'an empty shell of a human being' and 'detached from reality' but added the words 'unless you die' and put it on Facebook.Theuniondivvie said:What a silly billy.
'Tory MP who voted to bomb Syria in Facebook death threat row after adding 'unless you die' to constituent's email'
http://tinyurl.com/j4otpww
Seems you're nobody nowadays unless you've had a death threat.
What a b1tch ! She spoilt her own case.0 -
MG Effin pathetic..give up..you are making yourself look an even bigger prat..0
-
Fat chance of that.richardDodd said:MG Effin pathetic..give up..
He is really upset at the buffers the SNP have run into. Plus the fraud and corruption.0 -
Always another level - an interesting approach....surbiton said:
So why no Chapter 7 resolution ?Malmesbury said:
When was the last time all 5 permanent members of security council of the UN voted in favour of military action - no abstentions?Cyclefree said:
It's also possible that he was briefed on Privy Council terms on intelligence briefings.justin124 said:
isam said:
'I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?'
I think the key change for Benn will have been the UN resolution.0 -
17th out of 310 - happy with that.MarkHopkins said:List of all the competition results in winning order
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_IyFniOZG2ATHjS00E99v_k06ZujKu2otE9aNfILm5s/edit?usp=sharing0 -
The Royal Navy should get a cut for putting it there for the Columbians to findPlato_Says said:Colombia has found a Spanish treasure galleon that sank three hundred years ago off the coast of Cartagena, reputedly loaded with emeralds, gold and silver coins.
President Juan Manuel Santos made the announcement on Twitter.
“Great news! We have found the San Jose galleon. Tomorrow we will provide details at a press conference from Cartagena,” he said.
It could reveal one of the great lost treasure chests, with valuables worth as much as $17 billion (£11 billion).
0
